453
AXUS74 KLZK 190925
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-
113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-191800-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2024
...MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A VERY WET START TO 2023, CONDITIONS BECAME VERY DRY
DURING THE SUMMER AND CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
YEAR. THE DRIEST MONTHS WERE NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. FORTUNATELY,
2024 HAS BEGUN WITH MORE THAN USUAL PRECIPITATION.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS
OF DROUGHT: D1 (MODERATE), D2 (SEVERE), D3 (EXTREME), AND
D4 (EXCEPTIONAL).
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID JANUARY 17TH 2024, INDICATED
D1 (41 PERCENT COVERAGE), D2 (22 PERCENT COVERAGE), D3 (9 PERCENT),
AND D4 (LESS THAN 1 PERCENT COVERAGE) CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS, WITH
THE HIGHEST DROUGHT INTENSITIES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...
LAST YEAR (2023) ENDED ON A VERY DRY NOTE. RAINFALL WAS TWO TO
MORE THAN FOUR INCHES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS IN DECEMBER,
WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER 2023...
SITE AMOUNT NORMAL DEPARTURE PCT OF NORMAL
FAYETTEVILLE (NW AR) 2.09 3.07 -0.98 68
HARRISON (NC AR) 0.85 2.94 -2.09 29
JONESBORO (NE AR) 1.50 4.45 -2.95 34
FORT SMITH (WC AR) 1.95 3.48 -1.53 56
LITTLE ROCK (C AR) 1.40 5.08 -3.68 28
WEST MEMPHIS (EC AR) 1.15 4.88 -3.73 24
TEXARKANA (SW AR) 1.07 4.68 -3.61 23
EL DORADO (SC AR) 1.36 5.61 -4.25 24
PINE BLUFF (SE AR) 1.08 5.30 -4.22 20
FOCUSING MORE ON CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM OCTOBER 1ST TO
DECEMBER 31ST (92 DAYS), RAINFALL DEFICITS WENT FROM TWO TO FIVE
INCHES AT LITTLE ROCK (PULASKI COUNTY) AND PINE BLUFF (JEFFERSON
COUNTY) TO EIGHT TO TWELVE INCHES TOWARD MONTICELLO (DREW COUNTY).
PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 1ST TO DECEMBER 31ST 2023...
SITE AMOUNT NORMAL DEPARTURE PCT OF NORMAL
LITTLE ROCK (C AR) 10.67 14.27 -3.60 75
PINE BLUFF (SE AR) 9.25 13.85 -4.60 67
MONTICELLO (SE AR) 5.56 14.38 -8.82 39
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN/SNOW HAS PICKED UP TO BEGIN 2024 GIVEN
A TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THROUGH JANUARY
17TH, PRECIPITATION SURPLUSES WERE ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
AT SEVERAL SITES INCLUDING EL DORADO (UNION COUNTY), JONESBORO
(CRAIGHEAD COUNTY), AND LITTLE ROCK (PULASKI COUNTY).
PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY 2024 (THROUGH THE 17TH)...
SITE AMOUNT NORMAL DEPARTURE PCT OF NORMAL
FAYETTEVILLE (NW AR) 1.44 1.67 -0.23 86
HARRISON (NC AR) 2.11 1.57 +0.54 134
JONESBORO (NE AR) 3.94 2.08 +1.86 189
FORT SMITH (WC AR) 1.69 1.67 +0.02 101
LITTLE ROCK (C AR) 3.66 2.09 +1.57 175
WEST MEMPHIS (EC AR) 2.47 2.21 +0.26 112
TEXARKANA (SW AR) 1.91 2.10 -0.19 91
EL DORADO (SC AR) 3.62 2.48 +1.14 146
PINE BLUFF (SE AR) 3.01 2.18 +0.83 138
SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...
AS OF JANUARY 18TH, THERE WAS A LOW FIRE DANGER AND NO BURN BANS IN
ARKANSAS.
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL (30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE)
IN MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST
(1ST TO 20TH PERCENTILE).
STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
(25TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE), BUT WAS BELOW NORMAL (10TH TO 24TH
PERCENTILE) IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
FORECAST...
LOOKING AHEAD, A MODERATE TO STRONG EL NIñO (WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2024. DURING THE COOLER MONTHS, THIS OFTEN
TRANSLATES TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES.
GIVEN SIMILAR EL NINOS GOING BACK FORTY YEARS (INTO THE EARLY 1980S),
STATEWIDE AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (MORE THAN TWO
INCHES IN SOME CASES) IN FOUR OUT OF FIVE WINTERS.
PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY)...
EL NINO YEARS PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE
2015/2016 12.89 +0.77
2009/2010 14.22 +2.10
1997/1998 15.17 +3.05
1991/1992 11.86 -0.26
1982/1983 16.97 +4.85
AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JANUARY, IT APPEARS THE RECENT WET PATTERN
WILLRESUME, WITH ONE TO MORE THAN THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE 22ND THROUGH THE 25TH.
IN THE LONGER TERM, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE RAMPING UP IN THE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. DROUGHT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
RELATED WEBSITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK
LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTPS://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER
HTTPS://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.TAMU.EDU
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118
PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
46
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page