936  
FNUS75 KPSR 221505  
FWSPSR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GHOST...DFFM  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
805 AM MST SAT JUN 22 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MST ON JUNE 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO  
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (~30%) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
OVERALL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD  
COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. NEVERTHELESS, EVEN IF STORMS DO NOT  
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST  
OR NORTHEAST COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF GUSTS  
EXCEEDING 35 MPH. IF STORMS DO IMPACT THE AREA, THEY WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES, IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR, WHICH  
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS POSE A LIGHTNING RISK.  
THE STORM THREAT WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE SAME  
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND  
COVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL  
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 15  
MPH. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE 20% WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.  
   
..THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY WINDS
 
 
NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND  
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................18 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 101.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 6-11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................15 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 103.  
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
FORECASTER...GL  
REQUESTED BY...IC PERRONE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2416498.1/PSR  
.DELDT 06/22/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL AIDCLOGISTICS@DFFM.AZ.GOV  
 
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