459
FNUS75 KTWC 160329
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAW PEAK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
829 PM MST WED JUL 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 MST ON JULY 15.
DISCUSSION
DAILY CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
LOW CHANCES (15-20%). STORMS COULD START AS EARLY AS 10/11 AM
WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS CAN
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-66 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-59 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3100 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 8 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE
IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO
8 KNOTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MST) 8 PM 11 PM 2 AM 5 AM
SKY (%).........53 42 67 46
WEATHER COV..... S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 10 10 20
TEMP............69 68 67 65
RH..............44 45 49 52
20 FT WIND......NE 4G8 SE 5G10 SE 4G7 SE 3G6
MIX HGT (FT)....600 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..N 8 S 8 S 7 S 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 4 4 3
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING INTO THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE EARLY EVENING. MAX
TEMPERATURE.....69-72 DEGREES. MIN HUMIDITY........49-52 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
EAST UP TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE
DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO MARGINAL (12400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
MARGINAL (14500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING
HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 4 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........41 45 83 88
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE DEFINITE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC LIKELY LIKELY
CWR.............20 30 80 70
TEMP............65 66 69 69
RH..............54 54 54 51
20 FT WIND......S 3G6 SE 3G7 SW 2G8 S 3G8
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3400 3700 2900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 SW 5 SW 4 S 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 17 15 18
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL MRGL MRGL
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE
IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-63 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-77 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL (12800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (4400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 KNOTS.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........73 66 52 49
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CWR.............40 30 20 30
TEMP............65 64 64 63
RH..............66 74 68 68
20 FT WIND......W 3G8 W 3G7 SW 3G6 SW 3G6
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 600 1400 1000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 W 7 W 9 SW 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 4 13 8
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR MRGL POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-63 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO MARGINAL (15100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO MARGINAL (14100
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
FAIR (22100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 7 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 8 KNOTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........58 58 90 90
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFINITE DEFINITE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC LIKELY DEFINITE
CWR.............40 40 90 90
TEMP............62 62 67 68
RH..............71 75 67 61
20 FT WIND......SW 3G6 S 3G7 SW 2G8 SW 3G10
MIX HGT (FT)....800 3000 4400 3100
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7 S 5 S 5 SW 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 15 22 19
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL FAIR MRGL
FORECASTER...TETRAULT
REQUESTED BY...ROBINSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617449.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRIAN_ROBINSON
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