897
FXUS65 KFGZ 062048
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
149 PM MST MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT PLEASANT FALL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE A FEW FACTS TO PRESENT AND THEN WE WILL GO
INTO THE UNKNOWN.
THE FACTS - AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW
UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE DEEPENING TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLOWLY INCREASING AND
ABOVE NORMAL HGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A HURRICANE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC NAMED PRISCILLA. THEN, THE OLD MONSOON MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER.
THE UNKNOWN - ALL THESE THINGS ARE SET TO INTERACT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOW THEY
WILL INTERACT IS THE BIG QUESTION, BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT
THURSDAY ONWARD.
THE QUESTION OF WHERE THE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE IF SOME OF THE HURRICANE MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED, ALONG
WITH THE REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE. MOST MODELS NOW INDICATE THIS
INTERACTION, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE RESULTING BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
THAT SETS UP IN STILL VERY UNDECIDED. ALSO, WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME FRONTAL FORCING AND LIKELY A
MECHANISM FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE OFFSHORE TROUGH RELOADS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY SPINNING UP THE SAME SCENARIO ONE, OR EVEN TWO
MORE TIMES.
SO, RIGHT NOW, A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DECIDE HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT. ONE THING YOU CAN BANK ON THOUGH, LAYERED MOISTURE AND POPS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE ON THE MIDDLE TO LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST.
WE WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED, HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. ALL THIS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE FROM
TIME TO TIME AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLOODING. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...MONDAY 06/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 07/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS S-SW WINDS 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 07/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 09/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. DAYTIME WINDS
S-SW 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS S-SW 5-10 MPH
TUESDAY, S-SW 10-15 MPH, GUSTS TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES 10-20% TUESDAY, 15-30% WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES INTO AREAWIDE
STARTING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
WETTING RAINS LIKELY. WINDS SE-SW 10-15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
S-SW 15-20 MPH SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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