538  
FXUS65 KFGZ 231653  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
955 AM MST TUE APR 23 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING  
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FOR FLAGSTAFF  
SHOWING NEARLY DOUBLE THE PW VALUES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THIS  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL COME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BET  
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM  
AND WHITE MTNS, AS WELL AS THE CHUSKAS.  
 
AFTER TODAY, MUCH DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A RIDGE  
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ZONES/GRIDS LOOK GOOD, NO UPDATES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA  
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER  
THE HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KGCN-K0V7. SHOWERS  
END GRADUALLY WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z WED. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS  
WILL BE NE AT 10-20 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.  
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DEVELOP TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW LINGERING  
SHOWER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  
   
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...PETERSON  
AVIATION...DB  
FIRE WEATHER...ET  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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