362
FXUS65 KFGZ 311525
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
825 AM MST MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AGAIN TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SETTING IN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH OUT OF OUR CWA THIS
MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH, GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY, BECOMING EVEN MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY WILL START FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA AT 11 AM MST TODAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, SO NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
CHECK OUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...TODAY AND TUESDAY
ZONAL FLOW
GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER
DAY OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, BUT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE IN ARIZONA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT, SO WINDS OVERALL DON'T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF
THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE.
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN AS
THE JET MAXIMUM MOVES OVERHEAD. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
40-50 KTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.
IT INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THOUGH, SURFACE MIXING INCREASES LEADING TO GUSTIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE WIND
ADVISORY IS SET TO END AT 2 AM MST, THIS WAS EXTENDED TO COVER
THE STRONGER WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
ARIZONA. PEAK GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30-40
KT RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA, WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
50-KT GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE WIND ADVISORY ON TUESDAY TO INCLUDE THE CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE INCREASED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
INCREASE LOOK TO BE ENOUGH FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW, KEEPING OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT COMES A DEEP MOISTURE PULL FROM THE SOUTH.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS A RESULT. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, THOUGH NOT AS PREVALENT, AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL
NORTHWARD.
GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN-HALF ARIZONA WHERE MUCH OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLUSTERED. CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
USUAL UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 6000 FEET OR SO
GIVEN 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -4 TO -6C GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES ON THE GROUND WILL BE
MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS, AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET, AND UPWARDS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE
7000-7500 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY LOW THEN BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT, SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION...MONDAY 31/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-40 KTS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 01/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/SHSN ALONG AND
NORTH OF KGCN-KFLG-KRQE LINE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING 30-45 KTS, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH
OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE ON TUESDAY. W-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH
GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-30% EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS
LOW AS 4500 TO 5000 FEET. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN 10-20 MPH ON THURSDAY, TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-
007-009.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR AZZ011>017-
039-040.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY/HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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