449
FXUS65 KFGZ 231730
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST TUE JUN 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF
NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO DRIVE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA.
AS A RESULT, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
GIVEN THE STILL VERY DRY SURFACE. AS A RESULT, ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE HIGH-BASED, WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
UOFA WRF GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT OUTFLOWS MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER
DESERTS LATER THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE. AS OF NOW THROUGH,
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE BEST COVERAGE BEING ON THIS DAY. STORMS DO
LOOK TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY AGAIN AS WELL, BUT COVERAGE DOES BEGIN TO
WAIN AS MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
MAINLY HIGH-BASED, WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. A FEW
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER/PERSISTENT
STORM.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH ARIZONA BY
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTY COOLER, BUT WINDER CONDITIONS LOOK TO ENSUE
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RESULT. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY SUPPRESSED
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS SOON AS FRIDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO SET IN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS OF NOW SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15%
RANGE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN. COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW NEW LIGHTNING-CAUSED FIRE STARTS FROM
THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS, THIS FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS CONCERNING. RED
FLAG HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 23/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 24/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
DESERTS. WINDS SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS 25-30KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 24/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 26/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLATED MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY THE BRADSHAW MTNS/PRESCOTT
AREA AS WELL. WINDS SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS 25-30KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
OTHERWISE, HOT TEMPERATURES WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH EACH
DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-15% TODAY, RISING TO 15-25% ON
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHWARD. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN. WINDS SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH ON THURSDAY,
INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH ON FRIDAY, AND 20-30 MPH ON SATURDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 15-25% ON THURSDAY, FALLING TO 10-20% FRIDAY,
AND 5-15% BY SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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