331
FXUS65 KFGZ 161824
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1124 AM MST THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES, ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH,
COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM TEXAS INTO NEW
MEXICO, CONTINUES TO DRIVE A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.
THIS PATTERN HAS LOCKED A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER, A MEASURE OF TOTAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, VALUES RANGE FROM 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, AND 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE RIM. THESE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
ACTIVE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS AND REPRESENT A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT, HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY, AND THROUGH
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AS THESE STORMS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE A SECONDARY HAZARD; SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. CONVERSELY, THE
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IS LOW.
THESE CONDITIONS BRING A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY, YAVAPAI COUNTY, AND GILA
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST TODAY, SPECIFICALLY TARGETING FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS SUCH AS THE POCKET AND DRAGON BRAVO FIRE SCARS, SUPAI, AND
THE SLOT CANYONS IN NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY. HIGH-RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS THREAT, SHOWING
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES NEAR 70% FOR RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
INCH PER HOUR IN THE WATCH AREA. THAT SAID, FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM UTAH AND
COLORADO.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS ELEVATED AREA-
WIDE, BUT IS ESPECIALLY FOCUSED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COCONINO
COUNTY AND PARTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. FORECAST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
FOR 1 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL EXCEED 70% ONCE AGAIN, WITH AN
EMBEDDED 10% TO 30% PROBABILITY OF EXTREME RAINFALL RATES REACHING
3 INCHES PER HOUR. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DUE TO SUBTLE POSITIONAL CHANGES OF
THE NORTHERN RIDGE.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 16/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 17/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST, BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY NEAR KPRC,
BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
LIKELY FROM STORM OUTFLOWS, WITH VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 17/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 19/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z-03Z EACH DAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS. GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND STORMS, WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER
LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM, PRIMARILY A CONCERN FOR RECENT BURN SCARS. OUTSIDE OF STORM
ACTIVITY, WINDS SOUTH THROUGH WEST 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE, THOUGH DECREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES ARE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THIS PERIOD. DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER STORM. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY, WINDS SOUTH THROUGH
WEST 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ004>008-018-037-038.
PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...ZANKER
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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