910
FXUS65 KFGZ 121119
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
419 AM MST SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR
TODAY, IT WILL BE DRY BUT VERY WINDY AS THE POLAR JET WRAPS AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING REACHING SPEEDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH, GUSTING 40-45 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA STARTING AT 8AM
(9AM NAVAJO NATION) AND ENDING AT 8PM (9PM NAVAJO NATION). COOLER
AIR WILL START FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
BY MONDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE POLAR
JET STILL REMAINS OVER US BUT WILL START TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL AGAIN MEAN HIGH WINDS AT THE SURFACE BUT
MAYBE NOT AS INTENSE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS ON
SUNDAY. WILL WATCH AND SEE IF ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
ISSUED OR NOT, BUT IF ONE IS THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY BE THE
FAVORED AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MOVES IN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ENOUGH COLD
AIR MOVES IN TO DROP SNOW LEVELS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 6000FT.
MOISTURE VALUES HAVE TICKED UP A LITTLE OVER THE LATEST RUNS AND
ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS ABOVE 6500FT COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLICK ROADS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
IF YOU'RE TRAVELING OVERNIGHT DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, BUT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. OVERALL QPF TOTALS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY RANGE FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO A QUARTER OR THIRD OF AN
INCH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN IN A LITTLE WHILE, WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BY MIDDAY TO LATE TUESDAY EVENING THE TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST AND THINGS DRY OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH IT COMES AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT TO SEE IF ANYTHING MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 12/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 13/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AFTER 00Z. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z, SW
20-30KTS, GUSTS 40-45KTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS DECREASE BUT STAY
ELEVATED AT S-SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO 30KTS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 13/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 15/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS
AT FIRST. SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER 18Z MONDAY WITH MOST FLIGHT
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR, BUT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS COULD
SEE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR MONDAY 06Z TO TUESDAY 18Z AS RAIN SHOWERS
TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS MONDAY SW
15-25KTS, GUSTS 30-40KTS DAYTIME, SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS TO 30KTS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING W-NW 10-20KTS, GUSTS
TO 30KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
DRY AND WINDY DURING THE DAY,
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR NW AZ LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A 40-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS DROP AS LOW AS 6000 FT ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE SW 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH EACH DAY.
MINIMUM RH IS 15-30% ON SUNDAY, THEN 20-50% ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
LINGERING 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, THEN DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS SW-W 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY MORNING, SWITCHING TO THE W-NW 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS SW-W 5-15 MPH, BECOMING SW
10-20 MPH GUSTING 25-35 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH IS 20-40% ON
TUESDAY, THEN 10-25% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006>017-039-040.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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