745  
FXUS65 KFGZ 100426  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
926 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SCATTERED  
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH FLASH  
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
BESIDES FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST FOR  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ONGOING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD, THE  
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT HAPPENS TO BE NORTH OF I-40 WITH  
DEVELOPMENT OVER FLAGSTAFF. THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN TOO MUCH IN THE  
WAY OF STORM ACTIVITY TODAY, SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT WE ARE SEEING  
CELLS DEVELOP NOW, ESPECIALLY WITH HELP FROM SOME OUTFLOWS FROM  
STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS,  
SUCH AS HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW GUSTS AND LIGHTNING FLASHES, SHOULD  
BE BRIEF WITH A NORTHWEST STORM MOTION AT 15-20 MPH.  
 
MUCH OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOWS ACTIVITY  
DIMINISHING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO  
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO  
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW,  
BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS  
SCENARIO SET UP A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH WILL PERSIST THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION TIME LATER  
TONIGHT.  
 
THINGS ARE ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT OF FLASH  
FLOODING REMAINS DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /208 PM MST/...TONIGHT
 
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A  
COMPLEX OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA. THUS, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE RIDGE DRIVING THE MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, GRADUALLY  
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA PUSHES NORTHWARD. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO  
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AS A RESULT. AS A RESULT DAILY SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN  
ARIZONA. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY  
OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND LOW-  
WATER CROSSINGS.  
 

 
 
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG A KPAN-KFLG-KGCN LINE BEFORE DIMINISHING  
AFTER 08Z. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY RETURNS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH  
GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG, SOUTH, AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.  
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS AND CIGS IN STRONGER CELLS WITH  
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. VFR AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS  
LIKELY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
 
FIRE WEATHER...THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
LIKELY. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE FLASH FLOODING WITH 1 TO 2+ INCH PER  
HOUR RAIN RATES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. LIGHT WINDS  
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY  
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006>008-  
015>018-037-038-104-106>108-115>118-137-138.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...LAGUARDIA/HUMPHREYS  
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA  
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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