052
FXUS65 KFGZ 131623
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
923 AM MST THU AUG 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MONSOON ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS MORE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SOME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE SOUNDING AT BELLEMONT
INDICATED THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAD RISEN FROM 0.49"
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 0.68" THIS MORNING. STILL BELOW NORMAL
MONSOON LEVELS, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE TODAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE,
EXCEPT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST. MULTIPLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN WESTERN COCONINO AND FAR NW
YAVAPAI COUNTIES INCLUDING THE WILLIAMS AND SELIGMAN AREAS, SO
STORM CHANCES WERE BUMPED UP WITH A FORECAST UPDATE A SHORT TIME
AGO. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL ADDRESS ANY CHANGES OR
ADDITIONS TO THE HEAT PRODUCTS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION /419 AM MST/
INCREASING MOISTURE AND GREATER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FOR MORE DRY AND HOT WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ALREADY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASE. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO THESE
TEMPERATURES, AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
MST FRIDAY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
YAVPAI COUNTY AND IN THE GRAND CANYON. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS
PRODUCT WILL BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT TIME PERIOD AND
EXPANDED INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-TSRA ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS FROM 19Z-01Z THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
ISOLD COVERAGE NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SOME CELLS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS. SFC WINDS MAINLY W-SW5-15KTS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH HAINES
INDICES AT 5 OR 6. SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM
11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ006-037-038.
PUBLIC...JJ/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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