745
FXUS65 KFGZ 100426
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
926 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2022
SYNOPSIS
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH FLASH
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
UPDATE
BESIDES FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD, THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT HAPPENS TO BE NORTH OF I-40 WITH
DEVELOPMENT OVER FLAGSTAFF. THIS AREA HAS NOT SEEN TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STORM ACTIVITY TODAY, SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT WE ARE SEEING
CELLS DEVELOP NOW, ESPECIALLY WITH HELP FROM SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS,
SUCH AS HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW GUSTS AND LIGHTNING FLASHES, SHOULD
BE BRIEF WITH A NORTHWEST STORM MOTION AT 15-20 MPH.
MUCH OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOWS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SCENARIO SET UP A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL PERSIST THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION TIME LATER
TONIGHT.
THINGS ARE ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS DURING THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION /208 PM MST/...TONIGHT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
COMPLEX OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THUS, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE RIDGE DRIVING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, GRADUALLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA PUSHES NORTHWARD. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AS A RESULT. AS A RESULT DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY
OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, AND LOW-
WATER CROSSINGS.
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG A KPAN-KFLG-KGCN LINE BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER 08Z. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY RETURNS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG, SOUTH, AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS AND CIGS IN STRONGER CELLS WITH
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. VFR AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS
LIKELY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER...THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LIKELY. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE FLASH FLOODING WITH 1 TO 2+ INCH PER
HOUR RAIN RATES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006>008-
015>018-037-038-104-106>108-115>118-137-138.
PUBLIC...LAGUARDIA/HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LAGUARDIA
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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