192
FXUS65 KFGZ 242218
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST MON SEP 24 2018
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN WAS ABLE TO BREAK THE ELEVATED INVERSION TODAY. THIS
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON STORM
HANGS ON IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 02Z TUE. SW SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS THROUGH 02Z
TUE BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS
SOUTHEAST OF KFLG ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. W-NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10
KTS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE COOLING ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STORM IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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