126  
FXUS65 KFGZ 252302  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
402 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
WARMER, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN  
NEAR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS  
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO USHER IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO  
NORTHERN AZ, WITH RECORD BREAKING LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR LATE  
JULY OBSERVED AGAIN AT KFGZ THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS  
SETUP, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRAZE NORTHERN AZ  
TODAY-TOMORROW, LEADING TO BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH  
REACHES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE  
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH  
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE WINDS START TO  
DECLINE IN MAGNITUDE.  
 
MEANWHILE, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO  
BUILD WESTWARD, CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO RISE MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, AN  
EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS AND WILL PROPAGATE AROUND  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS  
FEATURE MAY HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ENCROACH FAR  
EASTERN AZ ON MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF  
THE EASTERLY WAVE, AND THE TRUE EXTENT OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON THE  
EXACT TIMING/LOCATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...SATURDAY 26/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/00Z
 
VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM  
JUST NORTH OF KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS LESS  
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING  
TO 25-30 KTS ON SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 27/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 29/00Z...EXPECT VFR  
CONDITIONS. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM JUST NORTH OF  
KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15  
KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. NIGHTTIME WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10  
KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
 
WARM AND DRY, WITH LOCALLY  
WINDY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON  
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO COUNTY. DAYTIME WINDS  
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY, WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.  
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO ON BE SATURDAY, WITH SOME DECREASE  
SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 7 TO 15 PERCENT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SLOWLY SPREADING BACK NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY, THEN 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY  
RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOST PLACES ABOVE 15 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI  
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM  
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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