596  
FXUS65 KFGZ 152150  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
250 PM MST SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A PASSING LOW WILL DELIVER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY ACROSS  
EASTERN ARIZONA. CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS. DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND WAS CENTERED  
NEAR HOLBROOK THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN AFFECTED  
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES TODAY, AND IS MOSTLY NORTH OF I-40 THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY END LATER THIS EVENING.  
FARTHER WEST, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED WITH STORM MOTION SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO END BY MID EVENING, THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE  
IS HINTING AT A FEW STORMS LATE TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN YAVAPAI  
COUNTY IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE  
TO THIS TROUGH. SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO  
BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING  
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LASTING WELL  
INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY. DEEP LAYER WIND  
SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MONDAY THOUGH STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE,  
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
BY TUESDAY, TROUGHING CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN US WHICH SHOULD  
PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL PERSIST IN EASTERN ARIZONA WITH GENERALLY DRY AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  
 
YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES  
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO HOW THIS SECOND  
TROUGH WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT  
THIS TROUGH WILL DRAW ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA  
LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. KEPT LOW  
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
 
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 06Z MON. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z, THOUGH A FEW  
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS  
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25  
KT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS TO  
35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT  
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. BY  
TUESDAY, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. A TROUGH APPROACHING  
THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE  
CONTINUING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...JJ  
AVIATION...JJ  
FIRE WEATHER...JJ  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AZ Page Main Text Page