126
FXUS65 KFGZ 252302
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
402 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN
NEAR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO USHER IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHERN AZ, WITH RECORD BREAKING LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR LATE
JULY OBSERVED AGAIN AT KFGZ THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS
SETUP, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRAZE NORTHERN AZ
TODAY-TOMORROW, LEADING TO BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
REACHES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE WINDS START TO
DECLINE IN MAGNITUDE.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD, CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO RISE MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, AN
EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS AND WILL PROPAGATE AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FEATURE MAY HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ENCROACH FAR
EASTERN AZ ON MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE EASTERLY WAVE, AND THE TRUE EXTENT OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TIMING/LOCATION.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 26/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
JUST NORTH OF KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 27/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 29/00Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM JUST NORTH OF
KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15
KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. NIGHTTIME WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WARM AND DRY, WITH LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO COUNTY. DAYTIME WINDS
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY, WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO ON BE SATURDAY, WITH SOME DECREASE
SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 7 TO 15 PERCENT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY SPREADING BACK NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY, THEN 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOST PLACES ABOVE 15 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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