985
FXUS65 KFGZ 282050
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2021
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND RETURN MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A MOIST PACIFIC STORM
BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE GUST NORTH WINDS WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF PEAKS AND RIDGES. A WARMING
TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE 20 TO
25 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S HIGHS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL
FAVORING A PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
SPREADING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
TIMING HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING. THE PACIFIC
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MORE
MILD AIR MASS AS COMPARED TO THE SYSTEMS AS OF LATE THAT HAVE
BROUGHT COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THUS, WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS IN THE 6,000 TO 7,000 FT RANGE WITH MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. STILL, SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000 FT.
BRIEFLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF
HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. AFTER 17Z WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGH TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
WETTING RAINS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SHIFTING NORTHERLY FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...DB/MCT
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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