997
FXUS65 KFGZ 232254
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
354 PM MST THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND, A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DELIVER COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP ACROSS ARIZONA.
THE RESULT WILL BE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
UNDER PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS. THE SPRING WIND REGIME WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH, LOOK
FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH BOTH DAYS. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH WILL COME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AS WELL AS DYNAMICS FOR UPWARD LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.05-0.20 INCHES IS
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE PASSING
SYSTEM FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO ARIZONA WITH SNOW LEVELS DIPPING TO ELEVATIONS
AS LOW AS 6,000-6,500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, GENERALLY 1.0 INCH OR LESS EXCEPT
FOR THE VERY HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS THEN RAPIDLY RISE
STARTING LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE USHERS IN A
MILDER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BUT STILL WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...YET ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNING. BREEZY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 24/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 25/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SW 10-20KTS, GUSTS 30KTS
AFTER 15-18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 25/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 27/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS SW 10-20KTS,
GUSTS 25-35KTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO 15-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. EXPECT INCREASING
HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY WITH A 30-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING,
DECREASING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH
A WARMING TREND THEREAFTER. ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY
AT 20-25 MPH GUSTING 30-40 MPH, THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page