662  
FXUS65 KFGZ 240454  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
954 PM MST THU MAR 23 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST EACH DAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A WARMING AND  
DRYING TREND ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS  
NORTHERN ARIZONA, THANKS TO A TROUGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT,  
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HAVE  
TRENDED OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD. PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGED  
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT MOST, AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 6000 FEET. USE CAUTION FOR  
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/  
A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CROSSING OUR  
AREA DURING THAT TIME. AS EACH WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL SEE AN  
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND  
SNOW GENERALLY IN AREAS ABOVE 5500-6000 FT AND NORTH AND EAST OF  
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALOFT, THERE  
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER, THOUGH THESE WILL BE  
MORE ISOLATED. ACTIVITY WILL START TO SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH  
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ACROSS THE WHITE  
MOUNTAINS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE  
LIGHT WITH AROUND 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE KAIBAB PLATEAU MAY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4  
INCHES.  
 
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVER  
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
A BREAK IN THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AS WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY AND IT  
WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING! CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY IN  
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  
 
GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN TO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AND DIVING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A  
TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE BACK AND FORTH A BIT ON THE TIMING WITH  
SHOWERS MOVING IN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME REFINING  
WILL NEED TO BE DONE ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER SAMPLED AND  
STARTS TO FORM LATER IN THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES!  
 
WATER CONTINUES TO FLOW OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM, TO THE NORTH AND  
SOUTH, WITH FLOODING CONCERNS PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  
PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY ON THE MAIN STEM WATERWAYS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS SCATTERED RAIN AND  
SNOW SHOWERS TURN ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MVFR, IFR, AND  
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE  
HIGH TERRAIN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED  
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY GIVE WAY TO  
DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES  
BELOW AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEAKEN BY  
SATURDAY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SUBSTANTIALLY EACH  
DAY AS FAIR SKIES DOMINATE. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...MCT/MEOLA  
AVIATION...BENJI  
FIRE WEATHER...BENJI  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
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