348
FXUS65 KFGZ 270909
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
209 AM MST WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK/WEEKEND. EVEN WITH LESS MONSOON ACTIVITY EXPECTED, ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
RADAR STILL SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA, WITH YAVAPAI COUNTY BEING THE MAIN LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PRIOR TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA. LOOKING AT SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE,
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WHAT
WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING) WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROMINENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
BEGINNING TOMORROW, A TROUGH FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
LOOKS TO MOVE INLAND AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL PUT ARIZONA IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO FUNNEL UP
FROM TROPICAL STORMS JULIETTE ON THURSDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT, WE
WOULDN'T SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUR FORECAST, BUT MAYBE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.
OVERALL, WE'LL START TO SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
STARTING AS SOON AS SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS ARIZONA. NOT ONLY THIS, BUT WE SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. WE'LL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 27/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 28/06Z
EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. ACTIVITY ENDING BY 03Z THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY/ ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, LOOK FOR WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-15
KTS DURING THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 28/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 30/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST, WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH ACTIVITY PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z-03Z EACH DAY. GUSTY/
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS, OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS WEST 5-
15 KTS DURING THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW FROM ELEVATED RH VALUES.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THURSDAY. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OUTSIDE
OF STORM DRIVEN OUTFLOWS, LOOK FOR WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, LANDING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF STORM DRIVEN OUTFLOW WINDS, LOOK FOR
WINDS 5-15 MPH VARYING IN DIRECTION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 15-35%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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