126   
FXUS65 KFGZ 252302  
AFDFGZ  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
402 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
WARMER, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH   
THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN  
NEAR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL   
CALIFORNIA IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS   
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO USHER IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO   
NORTHERN AZ, WITH RECORD BREAKING LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR LATE   
JULY OBSERVED AGAIN AT KFGZ THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THIS   
SETUP, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.  
  
THE TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRAZE NORTHERN AZ   
TODAY-TOMORROW, LEADING TO BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE   
WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH   
REACHES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE   
ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH   
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AND THE WINDS START TO   
DECLINE IN MAGNITUDE.  
  
MEANWHILE, A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO   
BUILD WESTWARD, CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO RISE MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS   
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE   
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHERN AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, AN   
EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS AND WILL PROPAGATE AROUND   
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS   
FEATURE MAY HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.   
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ENCROACH FAR   
EASTERN AZ ON MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.   
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF   
THE EASTERLY WAVE, AND THE TRUE EXTENT OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON THE   
EXACT TIMING/LOCATION.  
  
  
   
AVIATION...SATURDAY 26/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/00Z  
VFR   
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM  
JUST NORTH OF KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS LESS   
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING   
TO 25-30 KTS ON SATURDAY.  
  
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 27/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 29/00Z...EXPECT VFR   
CONDITIONS. SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM JUST NORTH OF   
KGCN TO KPGA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15   
KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON MONDAY. NIGHTTIME WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10  
KTS.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
WARM AND DRY, WITH LOCALLY   
WINDY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON   
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO COUNTY. DAYTIME WINDS   
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY, WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.   
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO ON BE SATURDAY, WITH SOME DECREASE   
SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 7 TO 15 PERCENT.  
  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS   
SLOWLY SPREADING BACK NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH   
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY, THEN 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY   
RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOST PLACES ABOVE 15 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY.  
  
  
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI  
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM  
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON  
  
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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