192  
FXUS65 KFGZ 242218  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
318 PM MST MON SEP 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS  
WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND  
TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE  
GREAT BASIN WAS ABLE TO BREAK THE ELEVATED INVERSION TODAY. THIS  
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN  
ARIZONA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME  
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO  
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON STORM  
HANGS ON IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES ELSEWHERE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - MODELS IN  
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE AS  
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT  
24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION WILL DIMINISH  
AFTER 02Z TUE. SW SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS THROUGH 02Z  
TUE BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS  
SOUTHEAST OF KFLG ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. W-NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10  
KTS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR  
TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE  
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY, THERE  
IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE COOLING ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STORM IN THE WHITE  
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST  
WINDS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MAS  
AVIATION...TPS  
FIRE WEATHER...TPS  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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