332
FXUS65 KFGZ 210558
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1058 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THE REST OF
THIS WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY EACH
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
LASAT EVENING AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION /423 PM MST/
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
COASTS TODAY BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, ARIZONA REMAINS SITUATED UNDER A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AS THE LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND THIS
WEEKEND, WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, COOLING
TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GUST 20-30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE ARRIVES BY SUNDAY
TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INCREASED FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT, WE BELIEVE
WE WILL STILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE SUNDAY -
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. THIS IS A MILD
PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS, EXCEPT FOR
THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET.
THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, AND IS
NO BETTER TODAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES (GEFS) ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A COLDER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE EC SOLUTIONS ARE WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH (NEARLY A 50/50 SPLIT). NONETHELESS, THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST BREEZY
AND COOLER WEATHER, AND PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH A BIG TRAVEL WEEK AHEAD, IT WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST DURING THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 21/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 22/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LESS THAN 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 22/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 24/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST EACH DAY,
OUTSIDE OF 5-15 KT NE WINDS BETWEEN 04Z-16Z FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
YAVAPAI COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BECOMING
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 20%, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EACH DAY. SMOKE
VENTILATION WILL BE LIMITED BY LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY, WITH MARGINAL
TO FAIR IN MOST AREAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AROUND 15-25 MPH. EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND IN RH WITH A
10-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MAS/MCT
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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