662
FXUS65 KFGZ 240454
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 PM MST THU MAR 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, BEFORE A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA, THANKS TO A TROUGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. HAVE
TRENDED OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT MOST, AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 6000 FEET. USE CAUTION FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/
A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CROSSING OUR
AREA DURING THAT TIME. AS EACH WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SNOW GENERALLY IN AREAS ABOVE 5500-6000 FT AND NORTH AND EAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALOFT, THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDER, THOUGH THESE WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED. ACTIVITY WILL START TO SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AROUND 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE KAIBAB PLATEAU MAY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A BREAK IN THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY AND IT
WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING! CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DIVING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A
TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE BACK AND FORTH A BIT ON THE TIMING WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME REFINING
WILL NEED TO BE DONE ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER SAMPLED AND
STARTS TO FORM LATER IN THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES!
WATER CONTINUES TO FLOW OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM, TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH, WITH FLOODING CONCERNS PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY.
PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY ON THE MAIN STEM WATERWAYS.
AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TURN ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MVFR, IFR, AND
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY GIVE WAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEAKEN BY
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SUBSTANTIALLY EACH
DAY AS FAIR SKIES DOMINATE. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCT/MEOLA
AVIATION...BENJI
FIRE WEATHER...BENJI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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