636  
FXUS65 KFGZ 252114  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
214 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO PERSIST OVER AND  
AROUND LAKE POWELL THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS  
TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRY WEATHER RETURNS  
FROM MONDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD ANAD AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL IN PLACE  
OVER LAKE POWELL AND INTO THE HOUSE ROCK VALLEY AT 2 PM. THESE  
AREA SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND  
THEN STRATUS TO RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE A FAIR  
WEATHER DAY IS ONGOING, THE FASTEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ONLY 8 MPH  
AT THE GRAND CANYON AIRPORT. ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS ISSUES  
ALREADY MENTIONED, EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A FAST MOVING TROUGH TO CROSS ARIZONA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM  
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE  
FOR SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL BE FALLING TO  
AROUND 5000-6500 FT (LOWEST VALUES NEAR UT BORDER). BEST CHANCES  
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE MOGOLLON  
RIM NORTHEASTWARD, WITH THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS GETTING AN INCH OR  
TWO OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LESS OR NONE ELSEWHERE.  
 
DRY WEATHER FOR ALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA  
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST  
OF A FREDONIA TO PAYSON LINE. VERY FAST AND DEEP NORTH NORTHEAST  
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING VERY GUSTY  
SURFACE WINDS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.  
 
DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY AND A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
 
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG  
WILL CONTINUE NEAR KPGA AND LAKE POWELL WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS WILL  
SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-  
15G20KTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF  
AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RETURNING RAIN AND SNOW  
CHANCES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...DL  
AVIATION...ET  
FIRE WEATHER...ET  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
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