538
FXUS65 KFGZ 231653
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE APR 23 2019
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FOR FLAGSTAFF
SHOWING NEARLY DOUBLE THE PW VALUES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL COME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BET
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MTNS, AS WELL AS THE CHUSKAS.
AFTER TODAY, MUCH DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ZONES/GRIDS LOOK GOOD, NO UPDATES.
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KGCN-K0V7. SHOWERS
END GRADUALLY WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z WED. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BE NE AT 10-20 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...ET
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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