272
FXUS65 KFGZ 220522
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1022 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING FOR THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING UP A BIT
FOR SUNDAY. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION /425 PM MST/
ASIDE FROM MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE
500MB HGHT PATTERN, EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY WINDS WILL BE OF NO IMPACT.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL
BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN APACHE COUNTY BORDER. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY, WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONCERNING THE CHRISTMAS DAY STORM, THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
AND HAS A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM. ECMWF AND GDPS ARE FARTHER NORTH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THE NAM SEEMED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS, SO WE HAVE SOME SNOWFALL IN
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING AT THIS TIME.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER S/WV
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED (FOR NOW) WITH THIS
TRAILING SYSTEM AND IT ALSO HAS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 22/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 23/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUD BASES AOA 12K FT
AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN LOWERING TO 5-10K FT AGL. VRB WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH W/SW WINDS 5-15 KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 23/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 25/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS ON MONDAY,
THEN S/SW 10-15 KTS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SET IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. SOUTH WINDS 5-15
MPH ON TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST 10-20 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMING LIGHT ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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