985  
FXUS65 KFGZ 282050  
AFDFGZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ  
150 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND RETURN MONDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES REACHING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.  
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A MOIST PACIFIC STORM  
BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.  
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH TO  
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION  
THIS EVENING. THE GUST NORTH WINDS WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING  
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF PEAKS AND RIDGES. A WARMING  
TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE 20 TO  
25 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S HIGHS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE  
AND TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
WEATHER SYSTEM.  
   
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
 
OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL  
FAVORING A PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK  
SPREADING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE  
TIMING HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING. THE PACIFIC  
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MORE  
MILD AIR MASS AS COMPARED TO THE SYSTEMS AS OF LATE THAT HAVE  
BROUGHT COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THUS, WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER SNOW  
LEVELS IN THE 6,000 TO 7,000 FT RANGE WITH MORE OF A WINTRY MIX  
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. STILL, SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000 FT.  
 
BRIEFLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH OTHERWISE ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF  
HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. AFTER 17Z WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY  
EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF  
HIGH TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT  
REMAINING GUSTY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING  
MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING  
WETTING RAINS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND  
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
SHIFTING NORTHERLY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...DB/MCT  
AVIATION...DB  
FIRE WEATHER...DB  
 
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AZ Page Main Text Page