048
FXUS65 KFGZ 031950
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1250 PM MST FRI APR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. GRADUAL WARMING AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEPARTING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HEADING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE, A
DRY COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH
COOL NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER OUR REGION. THE FRONT ALSO USHERED
IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO SINGLE
DIGITS OR A BIT BELOW ZERO FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE THE REST
OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. LATER THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ON THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, DOWN TO 10-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RISE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET PUSHED INTO AT LEAST
EASTERN ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE,
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (COVERAGE 20-40%) SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. POPS PEAK
ON MONDAY, DROPPING TO 10-20% ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BY
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TROUGHING
STARTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY NEXT THURSDAY, THE WEST
COAST TROUGH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STATE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT AS OF NOW THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING SO POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 10%. THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION - THIS WOULD COVER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 04/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE N/NE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS UNTIL 02Z. WINDS
SUBSIDE TO 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS TO
25-35 KTS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 04/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 06/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KINW-KRQE LINE
18Z SUNDAY-06Z MONDAY. WINDS NE-E 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING
S-SE 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY SATURDAY, THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10-
20 MPH ON SATURDAY, THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN IN THE MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH IS 8-14% ON SATURDAY, THEN
15-30% ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SOUTHWEST TO
WEST 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS 25-35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 15-30% ON MONDAY,
THEN 10-20% TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page