866
FXUS65 KPSR 281124
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
424 AM MST SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW THAT A PACIFIC TROUGH HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER WESTERN
CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PAIR WITH A STRONG JET LEADING TO STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE STABILIZED AND THUS THE
HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN'T AS DRAMATIC AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DESPITE
WINDS NOT FORECASTED TO BE AS STRONG TODAY A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH 11PM PDT TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF
IMPERIAL COUNTRY, WHERE IT IS TYPICALLY WINDIER. WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MAYBE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. REGARDLESS, THESE WINDY CONDITIONS PAIRED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY (RH AS LOW AS 8-15% THIS AFTERNOON), AND VERY
DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS. THE
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM
MST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN
ON MONDAY, WHICH IS WHY THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS
AND RAPID SPREAD OR GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY NEW OR
EXISTING FIRES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE
WISE, WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH
SEVERAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FORECASTED TO NOT REACH 100
DEGREES. MORNING LOWS ARE EVEN FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE 60S AND
70S BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY TUESDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN CONUS
ALLOWING FOR NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION. THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES (BOTH MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGH)
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
102 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE EAST AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. AS A
RESULT, H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO INCREASE LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NBM HAS TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUING TO RISE. BY
NEXT WEEKEND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO GO BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AND BE IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING BACK IN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOME MINOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THUS THERE WILL BE NO RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1124Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL DEVELOP
BY 18Z THIS MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. DIRECTIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY EARLIER TRANSITION
OUT OF THE WEST, AS EARLY AS 15Z AND PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY CROSS
WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. WITH ELEVATED WINDS REGION
WIDE, LOFTED DUST MAY HAVE SOME MINOR SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
IMPACTS, BUT NO SURFACE REDUCTION ARE ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH:
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KIPL WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND GUSTING
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MORE RELAXED
WINDS AT KBLH THIS MORNING BEFORE GUSTS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS, WITH A MORE SW'RLY
COMPONENT COMPARED TO KIPL. THESE ENHANCED GUSTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE AREAS OF DUST THAT WOULD IMPACT SLANTWISE
AND EVEN SURFACE VIS AT TIMES. OTHER THAN DUST, SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND VERY RECEPTIVE DRY FUELS.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 5-15% RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN DROP TO 5-10% BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AND IN THE 25-50% RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO A 15-30% RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE, ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS TO CREATE A RISK
OF EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO DIMINISH
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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