152
FXUS65 KPSR 090500
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE FORM OF A CUTOFF LOW HAVE MIGRATED
OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FINAL VESTIGES OF
WESTERN CONUS REX BLOCKING. FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA, SUBSIDENT RIDGING
WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 580DM HAVE FOLDED NORTH OF THE CUTOFF WITH H8
TEMPERATURES NEAR +15C AND H7 READINGS ABOVE 0C. THIS PATTERN
CONFIGURATION WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE
THE RELAXATION OF HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING ALLOWS LONGWAVE PACIFIC
TROUGHING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD EJECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF
LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
EXCELLENT WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 15F ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS TODAY AND MONDAY. THE
INCOMING TROUGH TUESDAY WILL FORCE H5 HEIGHTS CLOSER TO A 570-574DM
RANGE RELEGATING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS A 10F ABOVE NORMAL
ANOMALY. REGARDLESS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE
CWA, WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WILL BE COMMON ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT TROUGHING
FEATURE DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND REMAINING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE ADDITION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN
THE LOWER DESERT AREAS (STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE PVA AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY LIMITED SHORT-LIVED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED MONITORING OF HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS LATER
IN THE WEEK WILL BE NEEDED. IF YOU WERE EXCITED ABOUT SEEING
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THE LAST HOPE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS ANOTHER STRONGER AND BETTER POSITIONED
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE TRAILING BEHIND. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERT SW FOR THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM BEING OVER A WEEK
OUT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT INTO IT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL
EXHIBIT LIGHT AND DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF
VARIABLE TO CALM CONDITIONS. WINDS SPEEDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
GENERALLY BE AOB 8 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25% THROUGH
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES GENERALLY IN A 35-65% RANGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A
NORTHERLY FETCH. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES (THOUGH
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL), INCREASE MINRHS TO 20-30%, AND BRING
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE WEEK, A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PROVIDING 15-30% CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE EASTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/RW
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/RYAN
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