633
FXUS65 KPSR 221129
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
429 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
WARM, DRY, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING AND
TEMPERATURES PEAKING AT AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WE ARE
ABOUT TO SEE A QUICK WARM UP STARTING SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
PEAK AT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.; ONE OVER ARIZONA AND THE
OTHER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. BOTH DISTURBANCES BARELY
CONTAIN ANY MOISTURE AND/OR CLOUDS AND WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
MOSTLY UNNOTICED. WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES THIS MORNING IN
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
ONCE THE LAST DRY DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MEAN H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
582-585DM BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF
BETWEEN 578-581DM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME ARE SEEN STAYING WELL TO THE
NORTH MOSTLY PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, KEEPING THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LEADING TO OPTIMAL AIR MASS WARMING.
NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS RISING FROM THE
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY, TO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY, AND THEN INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE A GOOD AMOUNT BY
NEXT FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LIKELY CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN NOT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE POSSIBILITY ON SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK, BUT PHOENIX STILL HAS A ROUGHLY 50%
PROBABILITY OF TYING DAILY RECORD HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE CUT-OFF LOW MORE THAN LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALSO GENERALLY AGREES ON A SECOND PACIFIC LOW IMPACTING
OUR REGION A COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE FIRST ONE. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND CONTAIN
ONLY MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FIRST ONE, WHILE THE SECOND
MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO START DROPPING OFF
BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE FORECAST SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS QUITE
LARGE AND FOR NOW STILL FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1129Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE TYPICAL WESTERLY SHIFT IN THE PHOENIX
METRO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, WHILE N/NW DIRECTIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IN SE CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERIODS OF CALM AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO WARMING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITIES. DAILY MINRHS OF 10-15% WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 25-30%.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS BY MONDAY BEFORE PEAKING AT AROUND 90 DEGREES
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
FEB 24 91 IN 1904 93 IN 1986 92 IN 1986
FEB 25 92 IN 1921 95 IN 1986 94 IN 1986
FEB 26 91 IN 1986 96 IN 1986 95 IN 1986
FEB 27 92 IN 1986 95 IN 1986 96 IN 1986
FEB 28 89 IN 1986 97 IN 1986 92 IN 1986
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...18
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