397  
FXUS65 KPSR 020033  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
533 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
UPDATE
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER  
DESERTS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BETWEEN 110-115 DEGREES.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND  
BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN THREATS, WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTH-  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND  
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL END ANY RAIN CHANCES STARTING THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO SATURDAY,  
BEFORE HEATING BACK UP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/
 
 
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND  
WHITE MOUNTAINS, WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.  
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA CONTINUES IN A NORTH- SOUTH  
ORIENTATION ALONG OR WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE  
THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MEETING SOME BROAD  
SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGHING FEATURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST  
COAST. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY  
PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
OF EASTERN ARIZONA, WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOWS REACHING THE LOWER  
DESERTS THIS EVENING WHICH IS LIKELY (50-70%) TO RESULT IN WINDS  
GUSTING 40+ MPH AS INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL SUPPORT  
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HI-RES MODELS ARE MORE EXCITED ABOUT  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE THE VALLEY FLOORS LATER THIS  
EVENING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT DUE TO THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS, STILL LEAVING RELATIVELY LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR THIS  
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE  
IS LIKELY TO HAVE PUSHED AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MARICOPA CO. WITH  
DRIER AIR STILL GETTING PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA AS THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD SEE BETTER UPPER  
LEVEL FORCING OVER OUR AREA FROM THE INCOMING PACIFIC LOW AND THIS  
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SOUTH-  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DESPITE PWATS ONLY BEING AROUND 1.3"  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE FORCING FROM THE  
INCOMING PACIFIC LOW ARE LIKELY TO HELP OVERCOME THE LIMITED  
MOISTURE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL HELP  
TO BUILD 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 06Z  
HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO WHERE CONVECTION NOT ONLY DEVELOPS OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ALSO OVER PIMA AND  
SOUTHERN MARICOPA/WESTERN PINAL COUNTIES WITH THE HELP OF THE  
TROUGH. THE HIGHER STORM AREAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE  
SEVERAL STORM OUTFLOWS AND LIKELY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS, LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX  
METRO. JUST LIKE TODAY, A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A  
STRONG GUSTY WIND AND BLOWING DUST THREAT. ONE NEGATIVE WE SEE FOR  
STORM ORGANIZATION AND DURATION IS THE FAIRLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT  
AND OVERALL LOW SHEAR. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY WITH THE BEST  
CELLS POTENTIALLY DROPPING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH, BUT  
MOST AREAS ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN 0.25". NBM POPS OF  
15-20% OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS SEEMED TOO LOW  
AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO CLOSER TO 25-30%. THESE HIGHER  
POPS MAY STILL MAY UNDERDONE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
STARTING THURSDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAKENING PACIFIC LOW MOVING  
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL  
PUSH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS DRYING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT  
IT LIKELY WON'T BE FAST ENOUGH TO STOP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. POPS THURSDAY ARE ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST OVER THE  
PHOENIX AREA IN THE MORNING AT 20% WITH THE DRIER AIR LIKELY  
ENDING CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGHER  
TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF  
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ON  
THURSDAY WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE NORMAL FOR  
THE DATE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.  
 
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL END ANY RAIN CHANCES  
AND TEMPERATURES WILL MAYBE GAIN A DEGREE OVER THURSDAY'S HIGHS.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO NOTICEABLY IMPROVE BY FRIDAY  
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO THE LOWER 80S  
WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF PHOENIX. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE  
COMING WEEKEND WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN  
PLACE, BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO  
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST WITH A HIGH CENTER FORMING  
SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SHOULD KEEP A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN  
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO REALISTIC RAIN CHANCES. AS THE  
RIDGE GRADUALLY TAKES OVER AGAIN ACROSS OUR REGION, TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY HEAT UP WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 110  
DEGREE MARK AGAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL  
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT TRENDS ARE  
SHOWING THE RIDGE SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY  
NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO  
AGAIN RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
UPDATED AT 0033Z.  
 
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:  
EVERYTHING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE E/NE, BUT TIMING  
HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK MORE TO 02-04Z AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS HAVE  
BEEN LOWERED TO MORE 25-30KT GUSTS IN THE TAFS. THERE ARE STILL  
50-70% ODDS FOR A PEAK GUST >30KTS. ODDS ARE TOO LOW (10%) FOR ANY  
SH/TS MENTION IN THE TAF THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE  
OF GENERATING BLOWING DUST, WHICH MAY AT A MINIMUM REDUCE SLANT-  
WISE VISIBILITY, BUT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY.  
WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN E/SE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF  
SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MIDDAY TUESDAY, BUT WILL  
THEN VEER W/SW BY 20-21Z WITH 10-15KT SPEEDS AND ~20KT GUSTS.  
 
GREATER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCES (30%) FOR VCTS/TS AND POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS  
AND WIND SPEEDS. BEST TIMING CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 02-05Z AND  
CURRENT PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS >30KTS IS 50-70%.  
 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
BOTH TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL TRENDS (W IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT  
KIPL, AND S'RLY AT BLH). WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT  
KIPL AND 20-25KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AT KBLH. FEW  
TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD,  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME VICINITY VIRGA AT KBLH IN TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY HOT, BUT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE  
LEVELS PUSHING MINRHS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS TO UP TO 20%  
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL  
ALSO INCREASE TODAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN WITH  
CHANCES UPWARDS OF 40%. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR  
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS BY EARLY  
EVENING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS  
THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT  
AROUND 50% OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AROUND 30% INTO THE LOWER  
DESERTS. HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
MINRHS AROUND 20% FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO 30-35% IN GILA CO.  
STORM CHANCES DIMINISH STARTING THURSDAY AND END COMPLETELY BY  
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH  
MINRHS FALLING TO 10-15% BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR  
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ530>540-  
542>544-546-548-550-551-553-554-559.  
 
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ553-554.  
 
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ562-  
565>567-569-570.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...YOUNG  
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...KUHLMAN  
AVIATION...BENEDICT  
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN  
 
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