346
FXUS65 KPSR 230500
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED APR 22 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AND LIKELY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT, WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE END OF WORK
WEEK BEFORE READINGS DIP BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TIER OF THE CONUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DURING ITS PROGRESSION, THE
SOUTHERN MOST EXTEND OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH PAST ARIZONA, KEEPING
OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY ENHANCED AFTER A FAIRLY
WINDY DAY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION YESTERDAY. THE FOCUS FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN AND PARTS OF SE
CALIFORNIA, BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TUESDAY WITH PEAK VALUES RANGING AROUND 20-25 MPH, WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE SPOTS OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE PRESENCE OF CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND
WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS POINT IN APRIL, WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, MAY REACH INTO THE 90S, WITH PHOENIX HAVING A
50% CHANCE OF REACHING THAT MARK.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LEADING A CONTINUATION OF DRY
AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE REGION WILL
NOT BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH AT LEAST SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS BUT ANOTHER
APPROACHES, KEEPING OUR REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SQUEEZED.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF ARIZONA AND THE FAMILIAR BREEZY SPOTS OF SE CALIFORNIA. DAY-TO-
DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY HEADING INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY, AS MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY FOR MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR OUR
REGION AS THE TRACK OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO COMPLETELY MISS OR AT MOST JUST BRUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OUR REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CREATING
ANOTHER RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DIP
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NBM/WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER DESERT
HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
EXITS LATE SUNDAY, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING OR
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
NORMAL RANGE. THE WAVE TRAIN OF DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY GOOD
THAT W/SW WINDS WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN USUAL
BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING TO A LIGHT EASTERLY. DIRECTIONS SHOULD SHIFT
BACK TO W/SW LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY GOOD THAT W/NW
WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KIPL WITH SPEEDS WEAKER AND GUSTS MORE LIMITED
THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS AT KBLH SHOULD VEER FROM SW TO NW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH MAY INCUR SOME VARIABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH, BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 8-15% EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR TO FAIR. BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY IS
LIKELY TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE
AREA.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM..RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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