522
FXUS65 KPSR 071106
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
406 AM MST SUN JUN 7 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE READINGS APPROACH 110 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- DAILY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER
TERRAIN COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
FLANKING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
OTHER CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON. BOTH THESE SYSTEMS HAVE COMBINED TO GENERATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND
EVEN THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN MOST DISTURBANCE HAS
WAINED, THE OTHER LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE
DAILY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE NEAR TERM, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA. DAILY AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, WITH THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE FAVORING THE LOCATIONS
LISTED ABOVE. EVEN THOUGH NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR AREA, THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS, VERY FUELS,
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10%, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
IN TERMS OF OUR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOWER DESERT
HIGHS BETWEEN 99-106 DEGREES. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE PRESENCE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWS, ESPECIALLY THE ONE OFF TO THE NORTH, WE
WOULD LIKELY BE TALKING ABOUT BEING CLOSER TO THE 110F MARK , NOT
THAT WE ARE COMPLAINING. THE LONGER DAYS AND MORE DIRECT
INSOLATION WILL COUNTERACT THE EROSION OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, WHICH IS WHY, EVEN WITH MORE TYPICAL ATMOSPHERIC
HEIGHT LEVELS, MOST AREAS WILL SEE READINGS EITHER AT, OR JUST A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE EARLY JUNE NORMALS. HOWEVER, FORECAST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE NORTHERLY TROUGH
FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS TO SEE DAILY INCREASES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
FORECASTED HIGHS TICK UP A A DEGREE OR TWO FURTHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL
CLUSTERS REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IF YOU ARE A FAN OF MORE NORMAL
HIGHS, IT IS NOT AN OUTLOOK YOU LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING. ANY
INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGHS WILL FINALLY EXIT THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL WARMING ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE. 110F READINGS WERE MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE, AND WELL, WE
MIGHT BE TALKING ABOUT THOSE MORE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WARMING LEADS US CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THIS POINT. THE LATEST NBM
PUTS PHOENIX AND YUMA JUST SHY OF 110F BY FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO BEFORE WE GET THERE SO THINGS COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE. IF PHOENIX WERE TO REACH 110F ON FRIDAY (6/12),
IT ACTUALLY WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY ABNORMAL AS THE AVERAGE FIRST
110F DAY IS 6/14. NONETHELESS, IT IS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN JUNE,
SO EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1100Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER SCT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MID/LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE WESTERLY SHIFT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER SCT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS LIKELY AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FRONT HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THANKS TO CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES. PEAK GUSTS WILL RANGE CLOSE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH,
WITH THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
ARIZONA AND AREAS IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
DAILY MINRH VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5-10% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF AS MAX RHS PEAK BETWEEN 15-
45%. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL SEE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER DANGER, GUSTS
WILL SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS, SO
NO FURTHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED GOING FORWARD. WE BEGIN TO LOSE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, FURTHER
DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LOW RHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OBSERVED, SO EVEN MARGINAL BREEZES, WHICH BECOME MORE COMMON
DURING THE SUMMER THANKS TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND GREATER MIXING
HEIGHTS, CAN CREATE LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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