049
FXUS65 KPSR 051700
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST MON OCT 5 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 35 MPH.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH 97
TO 103 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH IT CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THE STRONG E-W
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ, ALTHOUGH IT
HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS SW AZ AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS
SE CA AND SW AZ, AND IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WITH AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AND FLATTEN
OUT WHILE ALSO SHIFTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THESE
MID-LEVEL FLOW CHANGES IT WILL NOT BE NOTICED AT THE SURFACE. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO EITHER BE THE SAME AS MONDAY OR
1-2 DEGREES WARMER RESULTING IN A SIMILAR HEATRISK OUTLOOK ACROSS
THE REGION AS ON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE THE MORE RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THERE STILL MAY BE SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX AND PORTIONS OF SW AZ. GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-25
MPH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY, A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK WILL DEVELOP WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE IT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY, TO AROUND 591 DM ACROSS SOCAL WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND
587- 590 DM ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND SE CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLIGHTLY, WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FORECASTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ AND IN THE 98-102 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN ARIZONA WILL BE IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. THE COMBINATION OF THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL RESULT IN
ARES OF MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CA AND SW
AZ. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN EL
CENTRO, CA AND YUMA, AZ. AS A RESULT, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH
CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY, AND THE YUMA AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE WHITE MTNS
WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START TO WEAKEN BY
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LARGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE HIGH WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION AND THE TROUGH MOVING IN. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EITHER WAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BUT, THIS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING DURING THE WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO ARRIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN AZ.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERING BREEZINESS WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND AND SHOULD BECOME
MORE SPORADIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW. OTHER THAN A
FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AROUND 15 KFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AIRSPACE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM A NE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE NW BY
THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-15 MPH WITH EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS SW AZ AND THE EASTERN DISTRICT. WINDS WILL RETURN
TO THEIR MORE TYPICAL LIGHT DIURNAL TENDENCIES ON TUESDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR MORNING AND AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. THESE LIGHTER
WINDS MAY ONLY LAST A FEW DAYS BEFORE GUSTY EASTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN AZ ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, INTO THE 101-106 DEGREE RANGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINRHS WILL
MOSTLY RANGE FROM 15-25% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 20-35%
ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY (35-
60%) AREA-WIDE. NO WETTING RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ532.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BENEDICT/BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/BERISLAVICH
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