932
FXUS65 KPSR 220953
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 AM MST WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, BUT OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
EIGHTIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TRACK OF THE NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
SET TO MOSTLY BYPASS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WEATHER REGIME WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS, BUT ALSO OCCASIONAL BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
A DECAYING WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHILE
A TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM
HELPED TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
AND WILL AGAIN BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS
WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. DRIER ALOFT AIR HAS SURGED
THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT MOISTURE HAS
IMPROVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS SINCE LATE EVENING. THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY, WHILE COOLER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION WILL LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY, OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER ZONAL FLOW,
BUT STILL UNDER SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
PATTERN. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS WEST OF CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S,
OR AT MOST 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ASIDE FROM SOME PERIODIC
BREEZINESS AND SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
QUITE TRANQUIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR OUR
REGION AS THE TRACK OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO COMPLETELY MISS OR AT MOST JUST BRUSH ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OUR REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CREATING ANOTHER RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DIP AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NBM/WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER DESERT HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S ON SUNDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS LATE SUNDAY, WE SHOULD GET
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING OR MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE. THE WAVE
TRAIN OF DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH WEST WINDS
PERSISTING LONGER THAN USUAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SHIFT
WILL BE DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS, THEN REVERT BACK TO W/SW EARLIER THAN
USUAL WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING. GUSTS 20-25KT SHOULD BE COMMON MID
AFTERNOON THOUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH MAY NOT BE SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE VALLEY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
PERIODS OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH
THAT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS RELAXING LATE NIGHT AND DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT
REDEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED AT
KBLH THOUGH A PERIODS OF NW ARE LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE. GUSTS SHOULD
BE MORE INTERMITTENT AND LESS PRONOUNCED AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH, BOTTOMING OUT AROUND
8-15% EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR TO
FAIR. BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE BULK OF THE AREA.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM..KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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