830
FXUS65 KPSR 152342
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
442 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS FALLING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 70S
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
]
STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN CONUS WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN 579-581
MB, WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS RIDGING FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE TO THE NW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT, AND STARTING TOMORROW AND
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE NBM DETERMINISTIC HAS BEEN PERFORMING POORLY W.R.T
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS OBSERVED HIGHS HAVE BEEN
3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. THIS DISCREPANCY IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE FACT THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT NE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT WHICH HAS LEAD TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER DESERTS. THIS MAY BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY AS
BREEZY NE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, FORECAST HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST RIDGING AND CENTRAL U.S.
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS WITHIN THE EPS AND GEFS CLUSTERS THAT
THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL
THEN, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL (6-10 DEGREES). BY THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME, OUR FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND DUE TO
THE RELAXATION OF 500 MB HEIGHTS AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH PERSIST NW FLOW CARRYING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING NIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2342Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR LIGHT DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT ALONG WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT
VARIABILITY AND CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. MINRH
VALUES OF 15-30% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 40-70% WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THIS WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA CAUSING MINRHS TO FALL AROUND 15-25% ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-60%. ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS TODAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
ON FRIDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MOSTLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS SHOULD RELAX THIS WEEKEND AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN/SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/SALERNO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page