310  
FXUS65 KPSR 250504  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
1004 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
UPDATE  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT  
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING SOUTH-  
CENTRAL ARIZONA UNDER SUBSIDENT, NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEST HEIGHT RISES  
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SW CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND H5 READINGS INCREASE FROM AROUND  
576DM CLOSER TO 582DM. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL CWA FLOW  
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A STAGNANT, QUASI-ZONAL CONFIGURATION  
WITH PRONOUNCED PACIFIC JET ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES WHILE BLOCKING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH  
AMERICA. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION  
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH  
TEMPERATURES HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET FOR THE  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS STAYING WELL TO OUR  
NORTH. A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHILE SEMI-FLAT RIDGING IS FORECAST TO  
AFFECT OUR REGION. ZONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST  
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY  
INCREASE WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 586-588DM BY MONDAY. FAIRLY STABLE  
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING. DUE TO THE STABLE HEIGHTS ALOFT,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BUDGE DAY TO DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER  
DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 86-92 DEGREES EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
UPDATED AT 0505Z.  
 
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND  
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL THE TERMINALS, AND  
FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. FOR  
KIPL AND KBLH, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TEND TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING  
THE EVENING. FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS DECKS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY  
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GREATER COVERAGE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF  
THE AIRSPACE.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING  
TO DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL  
READINGS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH  
MINRHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS STAYING AROUND 20% TO AROUND 25%  
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY  
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS WITH LIMITED  
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS.  
 
 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...18  
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN  
AVIATION...WHITTOCK  
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/LOJERO  
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