870
FXUS65 KPSR 070020
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 PM MST MON APR 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
- A FAIRLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WERE PROPAGATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THRUSTING
EXPANSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INLAND ALONG WITH INCREASING
ASCENT. WHILE TOTAL COLUMN PWAT EXCEEDING 0.75" AND ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY HAVE ADVECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, THE
SATURATED LAYER REMAINS CONFINED ABOVE H7 WITH ONLY 5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS IN THE SFC- H7 LAYER. THIS STRATIFICATION INCURS
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE SUB- CLOUD LAYER ESSENTIALLY PRECLUDING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA OVER LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES AND
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN OVER MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS INTO NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMING NW AND INTRODUCING A MUCH
DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INTO ARIZONA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS EXCELLENT AS BOTH
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS VERY NARROW
SPREAD FEATURING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDING INTO
THE SW CONUS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. WITH H5 HEIGHTS STEADY
WITHIN A 576-579DM RANGE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO A +10F TO
+15F ANOMALY WITH READINGS PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS AND WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (MID TO UPPER 80S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN), WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OF CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHTS STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS AZ. ENSEMBLES SHOW H5
HEIGHTS GOING FROM 576-579 DM ON THURSDAY TO 573-576 DM ON FRIDAY.
WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO COOL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
(LOW TO MID 80S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN). THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY GET WRAPPED UP INTO A TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE. IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER THAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE AND LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 80S (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0019Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
E/NE WINDS ARE FAVORED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, LIGHT VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED AS WELL AND WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY LOCALLY SHIFT SW AT JUST KPHX AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BY 19-20Z, WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS THAN TODAY
(MOSTLY BELOW 10 KTS). VICINITY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR A W'RLY COMPONENT, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE EVENING, WHILE KBLH SHOULD SEE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KIPL
WILL ALSO SEE EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABILITY THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AND MAY SEE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SKC THROUGH
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 10-20% RANGE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND IN THE 20-40% RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOWER RH VALUES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH MINRH FALLING TO 10-20% REGION WIDE. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (40-60%
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60-100% ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THEN FALL TO 25-60% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
15-25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN EASTERN MARICOPA AND
NW PINAL COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WEEKEND A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...BENEDICT/RW
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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