962
FXUS65 KPSR 301735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST MON MAR 30 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORDS TODAY BEFORE NOTICEABLE COOLING ARRIVES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
YESTERDAY PROVIDED EVEN MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO WHILE ALSO EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WAS
JUST ENOUGH YESTERDAY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES. AN OVERALL DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH CLOUDS BASES
PROVIDED PLENTY OF DCAPE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH SPREAD A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DUST NORTHWARD INTO THE PHOENIX AREA.
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STORM OUTFLOWS FROM
SONORA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BOOSTING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE BY
MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH, AT THE SAME TIME AND THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY SPREADING DRIER AIR INTO
ARIZONA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN TODAY ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION, BUT AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL START TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HI-RES CAMS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EXACTLY WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR, BUT THE MORE
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY INTO
WESTERN PINAL COUNTY AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY'S STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO AROUND 40 MPH.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN SOME SYSTEM MOISTURE, BUT
BARELY ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST POPS
OF 10-15% ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA TO 30-45% ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD END BY SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING AS
HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO THE MID 90S
IN THE PHOENIX AREA. A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN WILL THEN TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID
80S BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A
RIDGING BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY SLIDING INTO
OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTING THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
LOWERING AND TEMPERATURES INITIALLY STAYING FAIRLY STABLE AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. NBM FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG AS THE RIDGE WILL BE ENTERING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY.
FORTUNATELY, GUIDANCE FAVORS THE RIDGE ALREADY WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR REGION, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT MIDDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 9-12 KTS AND A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE TEENS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOW A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE PHOENIX AREA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE TERMINALS WITH
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN OUTFLOWS REACHING THE TAF SITES FROM ANY
DISTANT STORMS. OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KIPL WILL TRANSITION TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
9-12 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. AT KBLH, S TO SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED HELPING TO BOOST HUMIDITIES AND
MINRHS TO AROUND 20%. THE BETTER MOISTURE HAS ALSO HELPED TO BRING
BACK LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOSTLY END AFTER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INDUCED WINDS, EXPECT TYPICAL SPRING AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THE NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AND MORE SO STARTING WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL COMPLETELY COME TO AN BY THURSDAY AS GRADUAL DRYING AND
WARMING OCCURS. DAYTIME BREEZINESS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WORSENING AS MINRHS DROP TO
BELOW 15%.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
3/30 97 IN 2004 99 IN 1934 101 IN 1934
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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