310
FXUS65 KPSR 250504
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1004 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA UNDER SUBSIDENT, NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEST HEIGHT RISES
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SW CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND H5 READINGS INCREASE FROM AROUND
576DM CLOSER TO 582DM. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL CWA FLOW
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A STAGNANT, QUASI-ZONAL CONFIGURATION
WITH PRONOUNCED PACIFIC JET ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHILE BLOCKING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS STAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH. A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHILE SEMI-FLAT RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT OUR REGION. ZONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 586-588DM BY MONDAY. FAIRLY STABLE
HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING. DUE TO THE STABLE HEIGHTS ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BUDGE DAY TO DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 86-92 DEGREES EACH DAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0505Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL THE TERMINALS, AND
FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. FOR
KIPL AND KBLH, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TEND TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE EVENING. FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS DECKS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GREATER COVERAGE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AIRSPACE.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
READINGS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MINRHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS STAYING AROUND 20% TO AROUND 25%
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/LOJERO
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