493
FXUS65 KPSR 190847
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
147 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AND
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY
DEFINITELY EXCEEDED FORECASTED AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MARICOPA
COUNTY. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY NEAR SAN DIEGO AND IS
FORECAST TO ONLY MOVE TO OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW.
UPPER LEVEL FORCED ASCENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT
AT LEAST MARGINAL FORCING WILL STAY PRESENT THROUGH THE BULK OF
TODAY WHILE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FORCING PERSISTS.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.5" WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS PWATS STAY NEAR 200% OF NORMAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE 'DRIER' AIR (125% OF NORMAL) FINALLY STARTS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE DOESN'T DROP OFF
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FORCING SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST INSTANCES OF MODERATE RAINFALL
TO THE AREA. WE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS WE HAD ON
TUESDAY, BUT HREF STILL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 100-250 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FOR TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND THE
GOOD CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL FOR TODAY, WE HAVE
ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND MUCH OF WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY. CAMS EVENTUALLY SHOW THE RAIN SHIFTING MORE INTO
THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS GILA COUNTY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO WITH
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DIPPING INTO THE 40S FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LAST OF THE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE
LOW REALLY WRAPPING UP THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH PWATS
NEAR 200% OF NORMAL BY THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING
WILL ALSO BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE JET
FORCED ASCENT, MULTIPLE VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND THE LOW CENTER, AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD GIVE RISE
TO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.0"
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WHERE ANY BANDING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
OCCURS. IT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY THIS WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES ON FRIDAY FOR THE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY END UP BEING NEEDED.
THE TRACK OF THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SYSTEM IS STILL SHOWN TO
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
TRACK AND HOW CLOSE THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TO THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS
CERTAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA MAINLY KEEPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25", BUT ANY
TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH WOULD LIKELY BUMP UP THOSE AMOUNTS.
MODELS THEN FAVOR THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT MONDAY, LIKELY LASTING FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. NBM FORECAST HIGHS ARE ALSO SHOWN TO RISE BACK
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS AROUND OR
JUST OVER 70 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0556Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
PERIODS OF SHRA, LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES, VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS, AND A LOWER CHANCE FOR TS WILL ALL BE WEATHER ISSUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXACT TIMING OF ROUNDS
OF SHRA IS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE TIME PERIODS
WHEN SHRA IMPACTS ARE MORE FAVORED, AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL, THE GREATEST
IMPACTS WITH LOWER CIGS, REDUCED VSBY, AND WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR
WITH INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
040-060 WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR IFR CIGS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A W
COMPONENT WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST TO THE WEST. THEN A S/SE DIRECTION
WILL FOLLOW DURING THE MORNING, HOWEVER DIRECTIONS BECOME FAR
MORE UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEST OR NORTH COMPONENT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE LIKELY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
(20%) FOR SHRA, WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 050 AND
VARIABLE WINDS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT KIPL AND SOUTHWEST
VEERING TO NORTHERLY AT KBLH. VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION AND SPEED
WILL BE COMMON NEAR ANY ROBUST SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
PERIODIC SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING VERY GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. THURSDAY WILL BRING LINGERING CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAINS OVER THE EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING MINRHS IN A 40-70% RANGE
FOLLOWING EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY GREATER THAN 80%. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH
WEAKER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY LEADING TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITIES
STAYING ELEVATED.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AZZ541-542-545-547-557.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ534-537-538.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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