524
FXUS65 KPSR 292305
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY,
FRIDAY, THEN AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES ARE STEADILY CLEARING WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY,
LOWER DESERT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S, AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JANUARY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL
LEVELS, WHICH IS CHILLY FOR MOST DESERT FOLK. WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING, WITH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE 40S.
IN ADDITION TO THE TEMPERATURES, THERE ARE SOME BREEZY SPOTS TODAY,
IN RESPONSE TO 1032MB+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE BREEZIEST SPOT IS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING UP TO 20-30 MPH FROM THE NORTH. THE DAYTIME BREEZINESS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THE GRADIENT PIVOTING TO
FAVOR MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY WIND. THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR, WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS, AND SHOULD BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/
HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM
OFF THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION
RISING TO BETWEEN 579-582DM, OR WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF BAJA
ON FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE KEEPS IT TO OUR SOUTH PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL
BAJA ON SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. OUR REGION SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY, BUT LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL COME FROM THIS CUT-OFF
LOW.
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DUE TO THE LINGERING DYING CUT-
OFF LOW AS WELL AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST.
WE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS SHOULD KNOCK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME HIGHS. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS LOWER DESERT
HIGHS MOSTLY IN A 76-80 DEGREE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. OUR REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY LONGER
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AT
LEAST REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THEY MAY START TO TRAIL OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND IF THE CUT-OFF LOW
SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
TO KNOW IF AND WHEN THE CUT-OFF LOW MAY AFFECT OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES
DO SHOW SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BY AROUND FRIDAY OR INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT SO FAR ONLY 5-10% OF THE MEMBERS SHOW QPF FOR PHOENIX.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZINESS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REDEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2305Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO EASTERLY MID/LATE EVENING, HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AROUND SUNRISE AT KPHX AS SFC WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT SW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE REVERTING BACK TO EASTERLY. A
WEST SWITCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THAN USUAL IN
THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KBLH WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER MATERIALIZE AGAIN
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY
AT KIPL WITH LITTLE TO NO GUSTINESS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
MINRH VALUES IN THE 10-20% RANGE MOST AFTERNOONS. THERE WILL BE A
SUBTLE MOISTURE INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BUT MINRH
VALUES ONLY INCREASE TO 20-25% AT BEST. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
REMAIN POOR TO FAIR WITH HUMIDITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 30-55%. SOME
BREEZY WINDS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSED ALONG THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE SAME WESTERN
DISTRICTS AND SOME PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THERE MAY ALSO BE
LINGERING EASTERLY BREEZINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL AGAIN SUPPORT BREEZY DAYTIME
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS
PEAKING NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
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