977
FXUS65 KPSR 240501
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST THU APR 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AND LIKELY THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
DAYS PRESENTING LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. IS UNDER NEUTRAL AND NEGATIVE
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH MINIMAL
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL LEVEL. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
SOME OF THE CHANGES FOR TOMORROW INCLUDE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CA IN THE EVENING,
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INLAND JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NBM FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN UT FRIDAY EVENING, ENHANCED
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING. LATEST HREF IS SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >40MPH FOR PARTS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY WITH
THE WESTERLY SUNDOWNERS FRIDAY EVENING, AT UPWARDS OF 80-90% FOR A
FEW HOURS IN SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATION TO 100% IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE COUNTY. THESE WINDS MAY GENERATE LOCALIZED BLOWING
DUST CHANNELS IN FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE ANZA-BORREGO DESERT AREA
WEST OF THE SALTON SEA. HAVE HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW,
BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PVA
STILL MOSTLY STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE REGIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
AND FAVORED E-NE FACING SLOPES WITH DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENTS. FOR
THE LOCAL AREA, STRONGEST WINDS WILL STILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST CA, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG,
WITH GUSTS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER ON SATURDAY VERSUS SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST, AND VICE VERSA FOR SOUHT-CENTRAL AZ, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE.
THE SHORTWAVE THIS WEEKEND WILL ALSO LOWER THE 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
THE REGION AND A STRONG 200MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HELP PULL
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE REGION,
WHICH WILL AID IN LOWERING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, AFTER
BEING NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. THE ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MODEST ASCENT OVER THE AREA FROM THE STRONG JET
AND AN ADVANCING MID-LEVEL FRONT. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS HIGHER NORTHERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN AND WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
SOCAL MOUNTAINS. WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE HARD TO SEE
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER THAT FAILS TO
FULLY WET THE GROUND. ODDS OF RECEIVING 0.10" OF RAIN OR MORE IN
MARICOPA COUNTY IS 10% OR LESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REPEAT THE SAME SCENARIO NEXT WEEK
AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION AT
SOME POINT MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, READINGS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE
NORMAL RANGE BY TUESDAY AND EITHER STAY STABLE OR RISE A BIT FURTHER
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY GET CLOSE TO
BECOMING PARTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE IS
LEANING TOWARD NO CUT-OFF SYSTEM AND PUSHING IT THROUGH OUR REGION
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, WE SHOULD GET A
SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) AGAIN BEFORE
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WE ARE NOT
PUTTING MUCH FAITH IN THOSE CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
UNDER OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT
WINDS WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS
LINGERING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT VERSUS USUAL BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO EAST. MODEST WIND GUSTS 15-20KT ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO WEST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THAT WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHERLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25KT WILL BECOME COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON WITH KIPL INCREASING CLOSER
TO 30KT BEYOND EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONABLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZINESS SHOULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. A STRONG WESTERLY
SUNDOWNER WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH. EXPECT MINRHS BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY TO BE BETWEEN 7-15%, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL ONLY BE POOR TO FAIR AT 30-45% FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN
IS LESS THAN 10%. HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MINRHS RISING TO 15-25%, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS THEY ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BACK TO BETWEEN 10-15% EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CREATING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM..BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
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