417
FXUS65 KPSR 160541
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1041 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
LOWER DESERTS.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM CLIPPING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES, AND YET
ANOTHER DRIER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST
COAST WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN CA.
THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGHING FEATURE IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF
OUR REGION, BUT HAS ALREADY BEGAN TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE SW.
THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE REGION, WITH A NOTABLE MID-
HIGH CLOUD DECKS ALREADY SEEN FORMING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER DESERTS. EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME CLOUDIER
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW
AREAS PEAKING TO 80 DEGREES.
ON MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARDS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SHORELINE OF CENTRAL CA.
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SYSTEM, AN INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 850-700 MB WINDS ARE
UPWARDS OF 40-50 KTS. IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE (250MB), A STRONG JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED PROGRESS OVER THE REGION WITH SPEEDS REACHING 140-
160 KTS. AS A RESULT, WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN LA PAZ COUNTY, SW IMPERIAL COUNTY, RIVERSIDE
COUNTY, JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK, AND STARTING MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF S GILA COUNTY. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT GUSTS GENERALLY REACHING 25-35 MPH, HOWEVER THE RIDGETOPS
MAY RECEIVE GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE SW LOWER DESERT AREAS
WITH PWATS CLIMBING NEAR 0.80-0.90" STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON MOVING
EASTWARDS WITH THE SFC FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PWAT
VALUES IN THIS RANGE ARE ~200% OF NORMAL AND NAEFS IVT IS IN THE
UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE MOST OF THE PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT TO THE NORTH
OF OUR CWA, THE LOW LEVEL JET, UPPER LEVEL JET, AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FACILITATE GOOD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS (80-90%) EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST WPC STORM TOTAL QPF
RANGES FROM 0.50-1.00" ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH TERRAIN NE OF
PHOENIX, 0.10-0.30" ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO, AND 0.01"-0.20" ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE HIGHS, WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. MORNING
LOWS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND LOW TO MID 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER COUPLE OF TROUGHS LOOK TO FOLLOW THE VAPOR TRAILS OF THE
MON-TUE SYSTEM, PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THESE FOLLOW-ON TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
VERY QUICKLY, WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE
OVER HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (GREAT IF YOU ARE FLYING
EAST AND WANT A QUICKER FLIGHT!). THESE TROUGHS WILL ALSO LIKELY
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER DESERTS, LARGELY DUE TO THE JET
STREAK, AND PASS THROUGH ON MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST TRAJECTORY.
AFTER ALREADY DRYING FOLLOWING THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK (PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.40"), THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE TROUGHS
AS WELL ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS, DOWN MOSTLY TO 10-20%, WITH INCREASING POPS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SOCAL
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH
STRONG WEST-TO-EAST WINDS STILL IN PLACE WITH THE STRONG JET
OVERHEAD. SO ANY SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THE
FOLLOW-ON SYSTEMS, TO WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL DOWN TO
4000-4500', BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO STICK. THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE (5-10%) FOR A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN WESTERN JOSHUA TREE
NP WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COUPLE THINGS TO EXPECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DESERTS WITH THE
NEXT TROUGHS IS MORE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS
STRONGER THAN WITH THE EARLY-WEEK TROUGH, DUE MOSTLY TO TIMING.
THE WEDNESDAY TROUGH WILL PASS MORE DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL
FAIR BETTER FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE WEST-TO-EAST
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING
ENHANCEMENTS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED SPOTS UP TO 45-50 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CA. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH HAS
NOT HAPPENED MUCH THIS WINTER. H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 560DAM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 1-2C FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER DESERT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S TO MID AND UPPER 30S IN SOME RURAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS,
AND SUB-70F HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOONS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC OUTLOOK HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THIS
FAR OUT, BUT OVER 50% OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A RETURN OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES. LATEST
NBM FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHRA ACTIVITY
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED CIGS LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AOB 8 KTS. A
MORE SOUTHERLY CROSSWIND COMPONENT WILL ESTABLISH BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING WITH PERIODIC GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. BY MONDAY EVENING, WIND
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS. SCATTERED
SHRA ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN MORE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY FEW-SCT CLOUD DECKS AOA 18 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES TO SCT-BKN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS RAPIDLY DECREASE TO BELOW 6 KFT
AFTER 03Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GET AS LOW 3 KFT IN SHRA
ACTIVITY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN WEST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE AT KBLH,
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING AT KBLH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ACROSS KIPL DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PEAK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KBLH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS AT KIPL. VCSH IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY AT KBLH. MOSTLY FEW-SCT CLOUD
DECKS AOA 18 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE
COVERAGE INCREASES TO SCT-BKN MONDAY MORNING WITH BASES LOWERING
AS LOW AS 7-10 KFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MINRH VALUES AROUND 20-30%. OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH S-SE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH, MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH GREATEST IMPACTS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-40 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN MOUNTAINS AND EAST-FACING DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT MAY
LEAD TO SUDDEN STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT (10%). MINRH
VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO 25-35% THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH GRADUAL DRYING DURING THE SECOND HALF.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD AT AROUND 60-80%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ530-
533.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ557-
558-563.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ560-
561-564-568>570.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BENEDICT
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