606
FXUS65 KPSR 090514
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1014 PM MST FRI MAY 8 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PHOENIX AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN
BUILDING OVER WESTERN CONUS, AND A SMALL CUT OFF LOW CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS INTO WESTERN TEXAS. TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 99-102 IN THE PHOENIX METRO, AND
BETWEEN 100-105 IN THE WESTERN DESERTS AS H5 HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN
581-583 DAM. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS BETWEEN 582-584 DAM ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S AREN'T COMPLETELY
UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THEY STILL FALL IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. OTHERWISE, VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR, WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A QUICK BOOST TO UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RAISING H5 HEIGHTS TO 585-588DM SUNDAY BEFORE PEAKING
BETWEEN 588-591DM MONDAY, WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS. EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 104-106
DEGREES IN PHOENIX TO 105-108 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WITH PEAK HEIGHTS ON
MONDAY, HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 106-108 DEGREES IN PHOENIX TO
107-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS. MONDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE
THE CLOSEST TO RECORDS WITH THE FORECAST ONLY 2-4 DEGREES SHY.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PHOENIX METRO FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE THE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THIS HEAT EVENT
WILL BRING OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SPRING, BUT AGAIN
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT REPRIEVE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA, IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD
INCREASES STARTING TUESDAY, MODELS STILL HEAVILY FAVOR A COOLING
TREND INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
EJECTS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS,
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL ONCE AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY SATURDAY
WITH THE PEAK OF THE HEAT OCCURRING ON MONDAY. EXPECT MINRHS FROM
6-12% EACH DAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MOSTLY BETWEEN
20-35%. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH LIKELY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW RHS, DRY FUELS,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOCUSED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
AZZ537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ562-563-566.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/RYAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/RYAN
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