874
FXUS65 KPSR 192037
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
137 PM MST SUN APR 19 2026
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY
NORMALS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SW, SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH IS TO THE REGION'S EAST SPANNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE SECOND IS TO THE REGION'S WEST,
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE NW COAST. WITH THESE
SYSTEMS IN PLACE, TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED
IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ
THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL RELAX TO SUB ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30MPH CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THE CHANCE OF VIRGA SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN SE AZ WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT TODAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, UPPER-LVL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT REGION.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS INTO THE PLAINS,
HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 577-580 DAM OVER THE
DESERT SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON HAVING 100-300 J/KG OF MU CAPE IN EASTERN AZ, AND ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING, MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES START TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE UPPER 80S.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION BEGINNING TO
APPROACH NORTHERN CA, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE RIDGING FURTHER MOVES
EASTWARDS OUT OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE DESERT SW, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN SE CA WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
FINALLY PUSH INLAND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ALBEIT IN A
WEAKENING PHASE. ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE HGHT ANOMALIES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES (LIKELY CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS,
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS) BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
OF THE 500-700 MB HGHT GRADIENT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ ON
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT BOOST IN TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1816Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER LOFTED DUST WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE WITH
IMPROVING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY. AS WINDS SUBSIDE, DIRECTIONS WILL
TEND TO VEER S/SW TOWARD MID-AFTERNOON AND SOME LIGHT VARIABILITY
MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS WIND SPEEDS DIP TO 7 KTS OR LESS. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A W/SW SHIFT AROUND 01-02Z THIS EVENING, BUT
ONLY LASTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RETURNING EASTERLY. CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THAT SPOTTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND MAY SPREAD INTO THE METRO. ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING, WITH LOWEST BASES AROUND 12-13K FT AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS DECKS THAT WILL CLEAR TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS MODERATE WITH A E/NE COMPONENT
FAVORED AT KIPL THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A W COMPONENT THIS
EVENING AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AT KBLH TURNING OUT OF THE S/SW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY BEFORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15% AND AT TIMES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL ALSO VARY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 30-50%
RANGE. DUE TO THE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM..RYAN
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT/WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/SALERNO
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