114  
FXUS65 KPSR 250520  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
1020 PM MST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
UPDATE
 
 
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE  
OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING  
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING INCREASED RAIN  
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, BREEZY CONDITIONS,  
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A VIGOROUS  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST  
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LOW OFF  
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BANDS OF UPPER-LEVEL  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER-  
LEVEL CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE  
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER 80S SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.  
 
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE  
COMPLEX. A POLAR TROUGH WILL BE DIVING DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA  
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST REGION ON TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL  
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD WHILE DEGENERATING INTO AN OPEN-WAVE. MODELS  
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND IN SHOWING THE TWO LOWS NOT INTERACTING AND  
THUS PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVES CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK WITH POPS  
AT LESS THAN 20% ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND 30-50% ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS  
THE POLAR TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON  
TUESDAY, THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT AND  
THUS SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING GUSTS PEAKING AT BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO COOL INTO THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER  
DESERTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE  
EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SONORA SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN AZ, WHERE NBM POPS AT THIS TIME RANGE BETWEEN 20-30%.  
 
THE ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A LARGE UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST COAST. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM THE DEVELOPING RIDGE  
WILL RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS  
ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THEN  
BY NEXT WEEKEND THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING  
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND, HOWEVER, IT IS  
LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON COOLING TREND. IN ADDITION,  
DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL TRACK AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION, SOME  
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
UPDATED AT 0520Z.  
 
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT AND  
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL  
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW  
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS, SHIFTING OUT OF THE E-SE OVERNIGHT AND  
RETURNING BACK TO THE W-SW LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE METRO  
TAF SITES. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AND  
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF CALM AND VRB, ESPECIALLY AT THE SE CA  
TERMINALS. BKN MID-TO-HIGH LVL CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE  
REGION THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO REACH NEAR 80  
DEGREES TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO  
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20% THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS  
WEEKEND WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. MORE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE  
PART OF THE WEEK AS TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH OR JUST  
PASSED THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS,  
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY OVER THE ARIZONA  
HIGH TERRAIN. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY  
LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LOJERO  
AVIATION...SALERNO  
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page