583
FXUS65 KTWC 090754
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1254 AM MST THU APR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
FOR FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF TROUGHINESS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO TAP INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH WITH PWAT'S CREEPING UP TO AROUND 0.6-0.7 INCHES
EAST OF TUCSON. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME CLOUD BUILD-
UPS ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES. THE HREF IS STARTING TO
LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO A BIT MORE AS WELL. POPS REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR NOW BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
AND PERHAPS NUDGE UPWARD IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL, THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD THIS OCCUR. OTHERWISE, FOR FRIDAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TICK UPWARD TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE FIRST PART OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DOES SO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT LEAVES OUR AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10 PERCENT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, UP TO 20 PERCENT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON) AS THERE WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
OR DYNAMICS THIS FAR SOUTH. IN FACT, WITH LESS MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH SATURDAY,
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CREEP INTO THE PICTURE AS MINIMUM RH
VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS IN A FEW SPOTS. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGHING RELOADS TO OUR WEST
BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH TIMING THAT WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE FOCUS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ON FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AGAIN AS THERE IS A GREATER OVERLAP POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS. THUS, LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER HOISTING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS KIND OF PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. ONCE
THE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OUT, A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 10/12Z
GENERALLY SKC THIS MORNING, THEN
AFT 09/18Z FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9K-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM KOLS-KSAD. MEANWHILE, SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVE IN AOA 20K FT AGL
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THRU 09/19Z,
THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 8-12 KTS AFTER 09/19Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
FOR KOLS/KDUG. THESE WINDS WILL DROP TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME
VARIABLE AGAIN AFT 10/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY 10-15
MPH THROUGH FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION, BECOMING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING DRIER, THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIMITED IN SCOPE (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
SATURDAY MAINLY GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES). WHILE WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE MONDAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, THOUGH IT COULD STILL LINGER ALONG THE NM BORDER MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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