412
FXUS65 KTWC 260844
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
144 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS THE MAIN STORM
TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF ARIZONA. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME EASTERLY
BREEZES TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRROFORM CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN
FROM THE WEST. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPOTS OF PATCHY FOG IN
COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WESTERLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR
MANY LOCALES WITH GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE TYPICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS EAST PUSH WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS CHILLY
AGAIN TODAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY.
LOCALES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TO OUR
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH NO REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
CHANGE FOR US BEFORE MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS, THOUGH SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL PERSIST TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL THRU THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. SFC
WINDS VARIABLE WIND AT 10 KTS OR LESS THRU 26/16Z, THEN INCREASING
AND BECOMING ELY/SELY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-28
KTS. SFC WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 12 KTS OR LESS AFT 27/02Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING TO OUR NORTH. BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OTHERWISE, 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL LOWER INTO THE 18-28 PERCENT RANGE
BY WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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