548
FXUS65 KTWC 122130
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY, THEN
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY AND MONDAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 6 PM.
OTHERWISE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WAS BRINGING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST, BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
MITIGATED BY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORM MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. NOT AS
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO THE NE AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK, RUNNING 5
TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LAST TIME TUCSON RECORDED A
HIGH THAT WAS NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WAS ON MARCH 10TH.
DAYS 4 THRU 7 (THURSDAY APRIL 16 TO SUNDAY APRIL 19)
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER RELATED ON
THURSDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BRINGING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD: THU NEAR NORMAL; FRI 2-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL; SAT 1 TO
4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL; SUN 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS
PERIOD, USING NBM AS THE INITIALIZATION, LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST
PART. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY WHICH WE CAN
HANDLE ONCE IN THE 0 TO DAY 3 PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (APRIL 20-26)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33%-38%)
PRECIPITATION: NEAR NORMAL (36%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/00Z.
FEW-SCT 9-11K FT AGL BKN AOA 15KT FT AGL THRU MUCH OF VALID
PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA E/SE OF KTUS THRU 13/03Z. TOWARD THE END OF
VALID PERIOD AND E OF KTUS-KOLS LINE, ISOLD -SHRA, SLGT CHC
-TSRA. SFC WINDS THRU 13/04Z, WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35 KTS THEN SLY 8-12 KTS THRU 13/15Z. AFT 13/15Z, SLY/SWLY
12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. DRYER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
EAST. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ150>152.
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