629
FXUS65 KTWC 220955
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY WITH
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF SRN CA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE PWAT VALUES INTO THE 0.40"
TO 0.70" RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES BEING ALONG
THE INTL BORDER WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
TONIGHT: ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW LEVELS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVEL REMAINING
RATHER HIGH, AROUND 8000 FEET, WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING ON
THE SLOPPY WET SIDE. SNOW LEVELS DROP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY: REINFORCING ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL BRING LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH SHOWERS ENDING SUNDAY
MORNING AS TROF AXIS EXITS THE AREA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS EVENT. LATEST AMOUNTS FROM WPC HAS 0.10" TO 1" IN THE
VALLEYS AND 1" TO 2" IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE
LOWER WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES FROM TUCSON NE TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TO HAVE ITS
START TIME DELAYED FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE 8"-14" RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS THERE
COOLING OFF TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/12Z.
BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL LOWERING TO 10-15K FT AGL BY 22/20Z.
ISOLD -SHRA PSBL ALONG INTL BORDER BTWN 22/20Z AND 23/00Z,
EXPANDING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THRU END OF VALID PD AND BCMG SCT
IN AREAL CVRG. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MINIMUM RHS
TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT BY SATURDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR AZZ510-511-514.
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