468
FXUS65 KTWC 010739
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1238 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THEN AGAIN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE
UPPER HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME,
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER EASTERLY WIND EPISODE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN
LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS (SUCH AS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY AND THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
EAST WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN, WITH HIGHS LOWERING AN ADDITIONAL 2-5
DEGREES AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIVERGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, POPS ARE GENERALLY 10 PERCENT OR LESS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU 01/17Z, THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFT 01/20Z THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ELY/SELY SFC WIND GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TODAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND EVENT IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RH LEVELS AT ALL
ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 13-25 PERCENT RANGE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON MONDAY. MINIMUM RH LEVELS THEN
INCREASE INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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