070
FXUS65 KTWC 260946
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
246 AM MST THU MAR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE COMES TO AN END. BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE COMES TO AN END. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO 25 MPH TODAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
ON FRIDAY, THE WINDS TURN EASTERLY ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND
COCHISE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THESE EASTERLY WINDS
SPREADING WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND
COCHISE COUNTIES WERE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA VALLEY. THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECTED SOME MOISTURE IN FROM
NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 30S. BY THIS
WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. ENSEMBLES HAVE PWAT VALUES BY
SUNDAY 225-300% ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF TUCSON. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL MOISTENING UP, ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE VIRGA VARIETY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOSTLY HAVE DRY LIGHTING. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHERE POPS ARE IN THE 20-40
PERCENT RANGE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY TO CLOSE
OUT MARCH. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2 TO APRIL 8:
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (36-45%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (32-39%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SKC. SFC WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/19Z
AND THEN AGAIN AFT 27/03Z. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 8-14 KTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 18-22 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AT ALL ELEVATIONS GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE FROM SELLS EAST, WITH LINGERING CHANCES (10-30 PERCENT)
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM TUCSON EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO 40 PERCENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 MPH WITH
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT AROUND
TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY AND ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY AND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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