816
FXUS65 KTWC 052054
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
154 PM MST TUE MAY 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PINAL, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PINAL, GRAHAM,
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY, LIFT
AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH,
THERE HAS BEEN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO SEPARATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
KEEPING THE AREA UNDER GENERAL LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS WILL KEEP JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES (10-15%) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE
VALLEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE
WESTERN DESERTS THURSDAY, THEN MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS AND LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NBM GIVING A 60% AND 75% CHANCE
FOR TUCSON TO REACH 100 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 07/00Z.
FEW-SCT 5K-8K FOOT CUMULUS CLOUDS AREAWIDE THRU 06/15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS THROUGH KSAD THRU 06/01Z. SFC
WINDS SW-LY/W-LY AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KDUG AND
12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT OTHER TERMINAL. SFC WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06/02Z. SFC WINDS NW-LY/W-LY
AT 10-15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM EASTERN PINAL THROUGH GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 18-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY, AND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ELSEWHERE EAST OF CENTRAL
PIMA/PINAL THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN WINDS DIMINISH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ABOVE 25 PERCENT TODAY AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN THE
CATALINAS, PINALENOS, AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
JT
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