374
FXUS65 KTWC 130730
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1230 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NO CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS, UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH IN LOCATIONS NOT SHELTERED FROM EASTERLY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TUCSON METRO, UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD AND ACROSS
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ/WESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND LESS
THAN 10 KTS, FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT OTHER TIMES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH VALUES
AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS (COCHISE, GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES) ON MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page