646
FXUS65 KTWC 250924
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ENDING BY DAYBREAK. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS SEEING THE LAST PORTION OF THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KEMX RADAR
DEPICT THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOW EAST OF
TUCSON AND WE EXPECT JUST ABOUT ALL PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END
AREA-WIDE BY DAYBREAK AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN WITH
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE (THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON) AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY AM, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS OF COCHISE COUNTY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THIS
WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A MOISTURE
STARVED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY
BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS
LOOKING DRY FOR US AT THIS TIME SO NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY,
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN NUDGING A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 4K-8K FT AGL EAST OF KTUS, WITH SKC-SCT CLOUDS AT
6K-10K FT AGL FROM KTUS WESTWARD THRU 25/12Z. AFT 25/12Z, CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6K-10K FT AGL AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL AFTER 25/18Z THRU END OF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF -SHRA/SHRA THRU 25/12Z FOR KDUG, WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ENDING AREA-WIDE BY 25/15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS
OF SHRA ACTIVITY. SFC WINDS MAINLY WLY/NWLY AT 7-12 KTS THRU 26/03Z
THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TODAY. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH TODAY, WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH ON MONDAY.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MIN RH LEVELS WILL LOWER INTO THE 18-28 PERCENT RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ510>512-514.
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