793
FXUS65 KTWC 080805
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
105 AM MST WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RATHER BENIGN FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS THE AREA IS UNDER RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ABOUT
6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT FRIDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BREEZES, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE OVERALL BROAD TROUGH
WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF AZ SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. POPS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (MOSTLY 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE)
AS THE GEFS/EPS IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED THIS FAR SOUTH. AFTER
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL THEN DROP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH. WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT OF FOR THIS
WEEKEND IS INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON. WITH THE TROUGHINESS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES, THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 09/12Z
GENERALLY SKC THIS MORNING, THEN
SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFT 08/19Z FROM KTUS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD, FAVORING EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC
SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST MONDAY ESPECIALLY
EASTERN AREAS BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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