990
FXUS65 KTWC 022251
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
351 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
-EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MINOR/NUSCIANCE
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS AND HIGH TERRAIN.
-A TRANSITION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON & TOMORROW: SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: A NOTABLE EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WHILE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MINOR/NUSCIANCE IMPACTS CAN OCCUR AT THIS THRESHOLD
SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE GETTING KOCKED OVER AND BLOWING DUST
RESULTING IN SUDDEN AND INTENSE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. TERRAIN
AREAS THAT ARE EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL SEE THE FASTEST WINDS.
TYPICALLY DURING EASTERLY WIND EVENTS THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING (9 AM MST THRU NOON MST)
TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS SETUP WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS, BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND: AN UPCOMING TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE BRIEF REX BLOCK WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A CUTOFF STIRRING UP SOME
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES, PERIODIC CLOUD COVER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM (02/19Z)
INTRODUCES LOW END (10-20%) BUT MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
DIVING A BIT DEEPER INTO THIS SOLUTION, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DO NOT
DEPICT ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, BUT
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN. THAT BEING SAID,
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ADVERTISING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (50%) AND BELOW NORMAL (33%) TEMPERATURES IN THEIR
LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK AND ENSEMBLE TOTAL QPF PLUMES SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH MEMBERS SHOWING
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION JUST OUTSIDE THE VALID SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL AND SFC WIND 12 KTS OR LESS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG EASTERLY WIND EPISODE IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-
25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS.
MIN RH LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY (30+ PERCENT
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS), WITH RH LEVELS LOWERING INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE AT ALL ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH
LEVELS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE AREAWIDE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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