280
FXUS65 KTWC 102147
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 PM MST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 1 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA, HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS PLACED IN BETWEEN THE FEATURES TO OUR
SOUTH AND NORTHERN TROUGH. THIS LEAVES US WITH WEATHER SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY UNDER FLOW ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY STRETCHED
DEFORMATION, AS LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS.
THE NORTHERN TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MUTUAL CIRCULATION BETWEEN OUR SOUTHERN LOW/HIGH PAIR TO
ADVECT INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO BEGINNING THURSDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT
STORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO JUST
OVER ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
READINGS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THAT
PERIOD.
THREAT FOR STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUGGESTED BY GEFS
AND OTHER ENSEMBLES. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES OUTLOOKS SUGGEST
ANOTHER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME AND REINTRODUCE DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION AT THAT TIME
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 12/00Z.
FEW CLOUDS AT 10-13K FEET. SCT CLOUDS AT 280-300 AFTER 11/11Z.
SURFACE WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 8-14 KTS THROUGH 11/02Z, BECOMING
LIGHT WITH LOCAL DRAINAGES THEREAFTER THROUGH 11/14Z. SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST 8-14 KTS AFTER 11/18Z
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER 15-20 KT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH KSAD AFTER 11/18Z WITH GUST UP TO 28 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 12-18 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AGAIN
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE LOW AT
8-17 PERCENT THURSDAY, CLIMBING TO 15-30 PERCENT BY SATURDAY
UNDER INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH
BETTER CHANCES (GENERALLY 15-35 PERCENT) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
DISCUSSION...TRIPOLI
AVIATION...TRIPOLI
FIRE WEATHER...TRIPOLI
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