426
FXUS65 KTWC 221129 AAA
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
429 AM MST THU OCT 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL. TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
AFTER A COORDINATION CALL WITH SPC AND PSR, A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PINAL, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES IN OUR AREA UNTIL 11 AM MST. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY INCREASING IN THE PAST HOUR IN THESE COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVEAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 3 AM.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SRN CA THIS MORNING MOVES
INLAND AND THEN LIFTS TO THE NE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PWATS
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, RUNNING 250-280% OF NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY, ESPECIALLY N-NE OF TUCSON,
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
(15-18% CHANCE), LARGE HAIL OF 1" OR GREATER (15-17% CHANCE), A
TORNADO (5-8% CHANCE OF ONE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT), AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR. SPC SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS EASTERN PINAL/PIMA, NRN COCHISE, AND ALL OF GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH SLIGHT RISK. WPC HAS THE AREA
NORTHEAST OF A FLORENCE-ORACLE-WILLCOX- SAN SIMON LINE WITH
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PINAL, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. CWA IN
A MARGINAL WITH A SLIGHT FROM TUCSON NE. ONCE AGAIN,
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE NM BORDER, WHICH COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LATEST NBM HAS A FREEZE POTENTIAL AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN/MON MORNING.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL WITH SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. ANY SHOWER OR
STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS
TO 50 KTS, SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
SFC WINDS AWAY FROM TS MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN COOLER
THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE.
WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 25-40+ PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AZZ506.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AZZ509>511.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ505.
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