438
FXUS65 KTWC 190835
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 AM MST MON OCT 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AROUND
THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES AREA WIDE.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA IN SW FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT EXTENDED FROM NE AZ TO SW AZ. RADAR SHOWED SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WERE MOVING NE
AROUND 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THESE SHOWERS MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.05". THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS,
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT FRISKY, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
TUESDAY: LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TUCSON EAST.
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW THIS MORNING WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SWINGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH
WPC HAVING PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT
RISK (NORTHEAST OF TUCSON) OF FLASH FLOODING WITHIN 25 MILES OF
A POINT.
MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10%) FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 20/12Z.
SCT-BKN 8K-10K FT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA THRU 19/17Z, THEN SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA THRU 20/04Z MAINLY KTUS E AND S. SFC WINDS
ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS THRU PD WITH GUSTY WINDS PSBL NEAR -TSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 25-40 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MOST DAYS SEEING ANYWHERE FROM A
20-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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