113
FXUS65 KTWC 300947
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 AM MST THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND EASTERLY
BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SUB-TROPICAL JET WAS PUSHING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
THAT WAS LOCATED AROUND 450 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY, ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AROUND 12 NOON, OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CA BY 5 PM, BETWEEN
NOGALES AND HERMOSILLO BY 11 PM AND THEN OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
MX BY 5 AM FRIDAY. STILL RATHER DRY OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH
PWATS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE AREA AS THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP FROM TOP DOWN. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS EAST TO 30S WEST AS OF THIS WRITING.
THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LOW PUSHES EAST AND SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
THE FIRST WILL BE THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND MAINLY ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. QPF TOTALS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT, MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.10". THE SECOND WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT THICK HIGH CLOUDS
PUSH EAST LEAVING PLENTY OF SUN AROUND FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING. WITH PWAT VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 150% TO 250% ABOVE NORMAL, SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. THERE ARE
SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1" THAT MAY
LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY, WHERE THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A FEW APRIL 30TH RAINFALL
RECORDS WILL BE AT RISK TO BE BROKEN. CHECK THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
ACTIVITY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (SUNDAY MAY 3 TO WEDNESDAY MAY 6)
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. OTHERWISE IT'LL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MINOR HEAT RISK FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COOLER MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. BREEZY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY EAST OF TUCSON. TUESDAY LIKELY
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERALL NO ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 7 TO MAY 13)
TEMPERATURE: LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (51-57%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-42%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/12Z.
BKN-OVC AOA 18K FT AGL WILL BE PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LOW WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL BRING AN INITIAL PERIOD OF -SHRA WITH CLOUD BASES 9K-11K
FT AGL SE OF KTUS BETWEEN 30/14Z AND 30/19Z. AFTER 30/19Z, SCT-BKN
8K-10K FT AGL WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA. GUST TO 35 KTS PSBL
NR -TSRA. OTRW SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THRU
30/18Z THEN SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN
TO A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
APRIL 30TH RAINFALL RECORDS.
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.40" IN 1981
NOGALES (TOWN SITE) 0.32" IN 1981
SAFFORD (TOWN SITE) 0.29" IN 1951
DOUGLAS AIRPORT 0.12" IN 1951
TOMBSTONE 0.62" IN 1951
WILLCOX 0.31" IN 1951
BENSON 0.29" IN 1951
SIERRA VISTA 0.10" IN 1980
AJO 0.20" IN 1915
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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