806
FXUS65 KTWC 032102
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE NORTH
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MODESTLY COOLER THAN THIS PREVIOUS WEEKEND TODAY AND TOMORROW IN
THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL RUNNING
10-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE BROAD PATTERN CONTINUES TO
FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A TROUGH AXIS AND
ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS NORTHERN TRACK KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COOL-DOWN ON
FRIDAY BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS. WEST WINDS THURSDAY INCREASE AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, BRINGING 15-25 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LACK OF A MOISTURE PUSH,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE LOW
ENOUGH (9-18 PERCENT) TO BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
WITHIN THE SAME PARENT TROUGH, A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BASE, CLOSING THE CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS CLOSED
FORMATION, IT WILL BE THE EXIT OF THIS LOW NEXT WEEK THAT CARRIES
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN ON THE LOW END THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BAJA LOW WRAPS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
THEN CHANCES INCREASE AS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CARRY THE LOW EAST
THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT NEXT MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME RANGE CLOSED LOWS USUALLY PRESENT A PROBLEM TO WEATHER
MODELS SO CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OR TIMING ARE TO
BE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/00Z.
MAINLY SKC, THEN FEW-SCT CIRRUS AOA 20K FT AFTER 04/12Z. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST SURFACE WINDS OF 12-19 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 04/02Z. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST 8-12 KTS AFTER 04/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TROUGH BRINGING THESE INCREASED WINDS THURSDAY WILL LACK
MOISTURE, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 9-18
PERCENT RANGE. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY, MOSTLY IN AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. LIGHTER BUT STILL
WESTERLY BREEZY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN ON FRIDAY, THEN A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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