052
FXUS65 KTWC 071004
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
304 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL HAVE EASTERLY BREEZES. TEMPERATURES IN
GRAHAM, GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORNING FREEZE IN EASTERN VALLEYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON THE
WARMER SIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST INTO EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA, MAINLY GRAHAM, GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BRING EASTERLY 10-20 MPH WINDS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THAT COOLER AIR MASS MAY POSE A FREEZING RISK IN EASTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR, AT LEAST
INITIALLY, WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO LAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PREVENT THE EFFECTS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED BY TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF SUB-FREEZING MORNING LOWS IN THE
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY RANGE FROM 25-45 PERCENT BOTH MORNINGS,
THOUGH AGAIN IF WINDS HOLD ON MONDAY MORNING THE CHANCE OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATER TUESDAY.
JUST OUT OF THE SCOPE OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT HOWEVER AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE IN THE PACIFIC LEADING UP TO NEXT
WEEKEND, ALL THREE MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING
THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MERGING WITH THE POLAR JET BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN US. THESE TYPE OF CHAOTIC INTERACTIONS ADD UNCERTAINTY
TO A FORECAST AND THAT PLAYS OUT IN THE NBM'S TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES FOR NEXT SATURDAY (11/15) WITH THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES FEATURING A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
ALL THAT TO SAY WHILE A DEEPER TROUGH (AS SHOWN BY SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF EACH MODEL CORE) WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...A LESS SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM OR ONE THAT AT LEAST HOLDS OFF FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS ALSO A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/12Z.
MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN, MAINLY UNDER 12 KTS THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUST UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE 12-
22 PERCENT RANGE. 20-FOOT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE TERRAIN AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LESS THAN 12 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS TURN EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE
EAST. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS EXPOSED TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WHERE
10-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST SUNDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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