419
FXUS65 KTWC 162039
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
139 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZES TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. BREEZES ARE PICKING UP AS WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME LOCALES NOW SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
THE TROUGH PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, THERE WILL BE A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BE WASHING
OUT/WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND FORCING WITH IT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE TIMING
WILL BE FOCUSED FROM LATE TONIGHT, PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE POPS ARE IN
THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCALES, THE PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH VALLEYS MOSTLY IN THE 0.01"
TO 0.20" RANGE (THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTH
OF TUCSON AND IN THE MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT START AT 8000
TO 8500 FEET THEN DROP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET BY MIDDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS STILL IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE
(LOCALLY 4"-6" IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS). EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL BAND DEPARTS WITH
CONTINUED BREEZES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER,
DROPPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY AND ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEM IS SLATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH, A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR (20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN
SLATED FOR AROUND FRIDAY WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH BUT REGARDLESS, SOME BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS WIND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL THRU 17/03Z, THEN LOWERING TO 4-8K FT
AGL FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17/03Z AND 17/13Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS 4-8K FT AGL TO DIMINISH TO
SCT COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 17/18Z THRU END OF VALID PERIOD.
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF ON AND OFF -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN ACTIVITY
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. SFC WINDS SLY/SWLY
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, BECOMING SWLY/WLY AFT 17/15Z AND
CONTINUING THRU END OF VALID PD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK. BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT BRINING
PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS IN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30-35 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY AND IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35-40 MPH WEDNESDAY. WHILE A FEW LOCALES IN EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL SEE RED FLAG THRESHOLD WINDS COMBINED RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT, THE AREAL EXTENT IS SMALL AND THE STATE OF THE FUELS
DON'T SUPPORT ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY THIS WEEKEND
WITH DECREASED WIND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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