294
FXUS65 KTWC 091951
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1252 PM MST FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND THEN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO THE INT'L BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, EXPECT A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.7 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUD BUILD-UPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TUCSON METRO
AND DOWN THROUGH SANTA CRUZ COUNTY TO THE INT'L BORDER. THESE STORMS
DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
CAN OCCUR WITH STORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING PARTICULARLY ACTIVE AS TROUGHING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
TODAY WITH RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED LANDFALL AS
A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BAJA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE NOW PRETTY
WELL BAKED IN ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY,
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL HELP RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR SATURDAY REMAINS HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS
BECOMES WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH TO
INCH OF RAIN OR SO WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MEANWHILE,
AS RACHEL SKIRTS BY TO OUR WEST, THERE IS A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AS SHEAR AND HELICITY
PARAMETERS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THESE LOCALES. THE SPC HAS PLACED
LOCALES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD IN A MARGINAL RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR DAY 2 (12Z SAT TO 12Z SUN) WITH A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY.
THE COMBINATION OF RACHEL SWINGING THROUGH TO OUR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND GUSTS OF 45
TO 55 MPH WITH WINDS A BIT LOWER EAST OF TUCSON. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS BEING
MIXED DOWN. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FROM TUCSON WESTWARD
ON SUNDAY. AS RACHEL SWINGS NORTH, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75" RANGE
FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND 0.10" TO 0.25" RANGE EAST OF TUCSON WITH UP
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN LOCALES THAT HAPPEN TO
SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AND WHILE
THESE ARE AREAL AVERAGES, SOME LOCALES COULD CONCEIVABLY END UP WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING. WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS BACK OFF ON MONDAY
(PWAT 0.75" TO 1 INCH), THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND
INCREASED LIFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CERTAINLY
NOT LOOKING AS WIDESPREAD AS THE WEEKEND BUT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
NONETHELESS. WE'LL STILL HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY
AS WELL FOR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY,
DRYING HAS MOVED BACK INTO OUR AREA AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, THEN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 11/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 9-12K FT AGL WITH ISO
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPS MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTHWARD THRU ABOUT 10/03Z.
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AFT 10/19Z THROUGH END OF VALID PD. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION. SFC WINDS E/SE AROUND 8-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45+ MPH
ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS
WELL WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, LOWERING TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501-502-505.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ503-504-506-514-
515.
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