145
FXUS65 KTWC 111801
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1101 AM MST SAT APR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIR LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A STRONG CUT OFF LOW
SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY DRY FOR US, THIS IS LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES (10-15%) FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED TO AREAS FAR EAST OF TUCSON
CLOSER TO A SAFFORD/ DOUGLAS LINE. BECAUSE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
IS SO DRY, ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL MORE LIKELY BE VIRGA WITH
LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. A FAIRLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS
CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGING BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS WILL BRING VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A JET STREAK
SITUATES OVERHEAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
35-40 MPH LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FORECAST. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EASTERN PIMA
AND PINAL COUNTIES TO THE ARIZONA/ NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ELEVATED MONDAY (AND EVEN
BE LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS) HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE REGION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES LESSENING THE CONCERN FOR
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE
(15-25%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOCUSED TO AREAS IN NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ATTACHED TO A MORE DEFINED TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE TO BE JUST ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA, HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND
AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.
AVIATION
VALID THOUGH 13/00Z.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 15-18K FT AGL KTUS EASTWARD AND SKC TO FEW
KTUS WESTWARD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BECOMING
MOSTLY SKC ACROSS THE AREA BY 12/00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING AROUND 12/09Z BECOMING
FEW TO SCT AOA 18-20K FT AGL ACROSS THE AREA BY 12/13Z. THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 11/21Z TO 12/02Z THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10-15%) FOR -SHRA FOR TERMINALS NEAR KSAD AND KDUG (EAST OF
KTUS). SFC WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 8 TO 12 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS. SFC WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING
VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KTS. AFT 12/15Z SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AT TERMINALS FROM KTUS SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS, LOCALIZED 3-5SM VSBY IN -BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS KTUS SOUTHWARD AND TO THE AZ/NM BORDER
BETWEEN 13/18Z TO 14/05Z. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
5 TO 10 KTS BY 13/07Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
MPH TODAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.
DRYER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH
WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ150>152.
MALARKEY
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