848
FXUS65 KTWC 251958
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1258 PM MST THU JUN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA AND WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH KEMX RADAR SHOWS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME. THAT IS WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF PWAT'S AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES AND
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TUCSON BEING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50+ MPH. THE SECONDARY
THREATS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING
STORMS (PRIMARILY FOR COCHISE COUNTY) AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN EARLIER THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THE CAMS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX ALONG THE
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER WELL SOUTH OF THE INT'L BORDER THIS EVENING
AND THAT CAN PUSH SOME OUTFLOW INTO COCHISE COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY WITH AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OUR AREA WILL START TO BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AS TROUGHING BUILDS DOWN THE WEST COAST.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS (10-
20 PERCENT CHANCE) NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SOUTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LOWER ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY.
AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH SETS UP ON THE WEST COAST IN AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THAT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WILL LOWER TO NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, BROAD TROUGHING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING FOR MONSOON MOISTURE, AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS LATE NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
INITIALLY, ANY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE FOR
THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND BUT HINTS OF A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN
WITH A FOUR CORNERS HIGH DEVELOPING AROUND JULY 5TH OR JUST BEYOND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 12K-15K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN AOA 20K FT AGL MAINLY FROM
TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRU 26/06Z AND AGAIN AFT 26/19Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KTUS SOUTH AND EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ROUGHLY 26/04Z. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN COCHISE AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES INCLUDING KDUG, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS
IMPACTING KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS 30-40 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS WLY-NWLY
AT 8-14 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THRU 26/03Z, BECOMING
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN THAN 8 KTS THEREAFTER THRU
26/16Z. SFC WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 26/16Z BECOMING SLY/SWLY AT 10-
20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 40+
MPH. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS START TO
MOVE IN WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BE ON THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND STAY BREEZY THROUGH
MONDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE THE BREEZIEST
DAYS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SELLS EASTWARD. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG PERIOD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER LATE NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ504>507-509.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ150>154.
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