862
FXUS65 KTWC 250813
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
113 AM MST SUN OCT 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN LOWERING BACK BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW WAS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA, MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH SATELLITE LAYER
BLENDED PW VALUES IN THE 0.25-0.40 INCH RANGE EAST OF TUCSON AND
BETWEEN 0.50-0.60 INCHES WEST OF TUCSON. SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE UPPER LOW LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN,
WITH WEST COAST TROUGHING AND SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES, WITH THE GFS
FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA INTO THE GREAT BASIN,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME INFLUENCE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN LOWERING TO 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6K-9K FT AGL THRU 25/17Z, THEN CLEAR SKIES/SKC
CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND LESS
THAN 12 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD, FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DIRECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN LOWERING BACK BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS TODAY AND
HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL THEN BE IN THE 18-30
PERCENT RANGE MONDAY, 15-25 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING BACK ABOVE 40+ PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page