441
FXUS65 KTWC 192033
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
133 PM MST FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RISING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK.
DISCUSSION
IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH JUST A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR DOUGLAS AND ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. BIG
WEATHER STORY AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WILL BE INCREASING HEATRISK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING BUILDS ALOFT AND SHIFTING TO
BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LET'S TAKE A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE. WHAT STANDS OUT TO ME IS THAT IT
DOES NOT FEEL NEARLY AS HOT AS THIS SAME TIME LAST YEAR. LOOKING
BACK AT HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE HAD A STREAK OF 7 DAYS IN TUCSON WHERE
THE HIGH WAS 105 DEGREES OR HOTTER IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO
JUNETEENTH WHICH ENDED UP HAVING A HIGH OF 113 DEGREES. THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARATIVELY, OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO ONLY
REACH 102 DEGREES IN TUCSON, AND WE HAVE HAD ONLY ONE 105 DEGREE DAY
LEADING UP TO JUNETEENTH (BACK ON JUNE 10TH). THIS MAKES ME
WORRIED THAT THE UPCOMING HEATWAVE MIGHT HIT FOLKS JUST A LITTLE
BIT HARDER THIS YEAR SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO
NORMAL SO FAR THIS SUMMER. SO TODAY IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO
REMIND OURSELVES OF THE HEAT SAFETY TIPS WE LEARNED DURING HEAT
AWARENESS WEEK. WEAR SUNSCREEN ALONG WITH BRIGHT, LIGHT-FITTED
CLOTHING. YOU MAY EVEN CONSIDER WEARING SUNGLASSES OR OPT TO
WEAR A STYLISH HAT TO HELP SHIELD YOUR EYEBALLS FROM THE SUN.
NEXT, REMEMBER TO HYDRATE EARLY AND OFTEN. LASTLY, AVOID
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE PEAK HEAT HOURS OF THE DAY.
OPT FOR AIR CONDITIONED SPACES AND REMEMBER TO TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS.
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST, WE ARE LOOKING AT 106
DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, 107 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, 108 DEGREES
ON THURSDAY, AND 106 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THOSE TEMPERATURES PUT US
SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE HEATRISK CATEGORY AND LOCALLY INTO THE MAJOR
HEATRISK CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS THE TUCSON
METRO, WE ARE STILL FORECASTING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVELS
OF HEATRISK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER
THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING GRADUALLY UPWARD
WITH NEWER RUNS OF THE NBM, SO IT MIGHT BE BETTER TO EXPRESS
PROBABILISTIC DATA AND NOT GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE SPECIFIC
TEMPERATURES. I SEE LIKELY CHANCES (70-90%) FOR HITTING 105
DEGREES OR HOTTER DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES (15-35%) TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS THE TYPE OF HEAT THAT WILL IMPACT PRETTY MUCH
EVERYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY, WHICH WILL SEE FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10K-14K FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-13 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, STRONGER AT KSAD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL START TAPERING OFF AFTER ABOUT
20/03Z, BUT REMAINING ELEVATED NEAR KSAD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TOMORROW, WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 20/18Z AT SIMILAR DIRECTIONS AND
SPEEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS
WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH STRONGER SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR IN THE COMING
DAYS AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN
THE VALLEYS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS WEEKEND.
NO STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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