255
FXUS65 KTWC 010855
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
FOCUSED ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AND MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
DISCUSSION
RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A FEW
WESTERLY BREEZES (10-20 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH) MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 7 TO
10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN WITH THAT HIGHS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 9 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED BREEZES.
ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE BROADER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND SETTLING INTO A POSITION TO OUR
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR OR OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON AS IT COULD PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH OCNL SCT CIRRUS AOA 20K FT AGL. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING, BECOMING WLY/NWLY AT 7-12
KTS AFT 01/20Z. SFC WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AGAIN
UNDER 10 KTS AFT 02/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN COOL TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING LATER IN THE
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY. A SERIES OF DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 22 MPH MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALES
ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE BROADER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND SETTLING INTO A POSITION TO OUR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR OR OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS DRY BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AS IT COULD PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. RE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BRIEF LOCALIZED CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-20 PERCENT TROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED, TIED OR EXCEEDED
TODAY AND MONDAY.
LOCATION FORECAST DAILY RECORD
SUN MON SUN MON
TUCSON 90 90 87(1986) 91(2009)
ORGAN PIPE 95 93 92(2016) 93(2009)
AJO 94 90 90(2016) 92(2009)
PICACHO PEAK 89 89 87(2009) 89(2009)
ORACLE 81 79 78(2009) 78(2016)
SAFFORD (TOWN) 88 88 86(2025) 85(2002)
WILLCOX 86 85 82(1974) 82(2008)
SIERRA VISTA 84 85 80(1999) 85(2009)
NOGALES (TOWN) 88 87 87(1976) 86(2016)
DOUGLAS 86 88 83(1999) 86(2009)
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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