347
FXUS65 KTWC 022125
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING UP INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. A MINOR
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WHICH WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGHS UP TO 3 DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
VERSUS TODAY THEN 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER FROM TUCSON WEST ON
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON WHERE
HIGHS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM FRIDAY THANKS TO LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST USHERING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON ON
SATURDAY LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY FROM
TUCSON WEST SLIGHTLY WARMER VERSUS SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EAST OF TUCSON. THE MOISTURE INCREASE THAT STARTED SATURDAY
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A LOW-END 10-20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
TUCSON EAST.
DAYS 4 THRU 7 (MON APR 6 TO THU APR 9)
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LEADING TO A LOW-END 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE T-STORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. MOISTURE SCOURS OUT A
BIT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH REMAINING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FOR A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RUN ABOUT 3 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) FOR THIS PERIOD, USING THE NBM AS A BASELINE, LOOKS
OK AT THIS TIME.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (APRIL 10-16)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (46-48%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-37%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/00Z.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU MUCH OF VALID PD.
SFC WINDS WLY 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS 20-25 THRU 03/03Z AND
THEN AGAIN AFTER 03/18Z. AT OTHER TIMES SFC WINDS VARIABLE AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WEST WINDS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BY THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. ENSEMBLES SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING
IN A LOW-END 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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