632
FXUS65 KTWC 252029
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
129 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL SATURDAY AND THEN ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING SOME FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
THAT TOOK ITS TIME BEFORE FINALLY BURNING OFF. WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE HELPING TO DRY OUT THE SOILS AFTER THE WEEKEND RAIN, THAT
SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FOG TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE
A BIT MORE MIXING AS EASTERLY WINDS NUDGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WOULD PUT
THE CHANCES OF ANY FOG AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, A VERY BENIGN FORECAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
WARMING WITH HIGHS PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ABOUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL BE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, BUT OVERALL, THE TREND IN THE
PAST DAY OR SO IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS
AMPLIFIED AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS MAY NOW
STAY TO OUR NORTH. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
BREEZES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN STILL BEING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT IS MOST DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM
TRAJECTORY. THE NBM HAS BACKED OFF THIS RUN WITH LOWER POPS/QPF AND
THAT LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE BROADER TRENDS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE VALID PERIOD. SFC
WINDS TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/15Z,
THEN MAINLY ELY/SELY 8-14 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THIS WEEK, PEAKING AT
4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLING TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES
CONTINUE TO LOWER, DROPPING TO 20-30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY,
BEFORE RISING TO 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FAVOR EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 15 MPH
AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN BREEZY 15 TO 25
MPH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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