093
FXUS65 KTWC 232157
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY
STORMS NORTH OF TUCSON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND UPSTREAM A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CLOSED LOW
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE MAIN LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS AROUND ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON.
THIS WEEKEND THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND
TRAVEL AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER CANADA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED JET PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 500 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 70
KTS AND 700 MB WINDS 40-45 KTS AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH. THE
MOMENTUM FROM THIS JET WILL MIX DOWN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS BOTH DAYS WITH SUNDAY WINDS
STRONGER AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH FROM CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING AROUND
12-15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE COULD AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL BE CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH COULD KEEP RH LEVELS
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEAD LINES FOR NOW
UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE INCREASES. SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST EAST OF TUCSON, ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE COUNTY WITH
SPEEDS 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. ELSEWHERE SPEEDS WILL
BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE MOISTURE MAKES IT ALL THE
WAY INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND TEMPERATURES COOL 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, WHICH WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
SUNDAY MORNING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL GET A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE BREEZY WINDS BEFORE ENSEMBLES BRING ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DAY THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH, BUT
EXPECT MORE BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY
ALSO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY. NBM POPS HAVE
INCREASED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE NOW 20-45 PERCENT
FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 25/00Z.
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL WITH PERIODS OF 15K
FT CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST- WEST 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS THROUGH 24/03Z, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. SIMILAR WINDS AGAIN AFTER 24/17Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON
INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASE TO 20-30 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS AND 25-35 PERCENT IN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH THE
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A SLIM
CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY STORMS NORTH OF TUCSON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SATURDAY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS FROM
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN AND CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG SUNDAY EAST OF
TUCSON, BUT WITH RH VALUES INCREASING THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS GREATLY REDUCED.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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