404
FXUS65 KTWC 060919
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 AM MST SUN SEP 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY UNDER SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, MAINLY TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION, WITH
THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS, HOWEVER PWS HAVE INCREASED ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AT 1.6 INCHES. THE REST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA STILL
HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ELSEWHERE WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THE SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PAS DAYS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND SHIFT THE FLOW TO BE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY DRIFT BACK WEST TODAY. EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT NOT BY MUCH. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS. WITH ANY STORM, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. CURRENT CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING
OUTFLOWS FROM SONORA, MEXICO COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE
EVENING, SO OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOMORROW
NIGHT.
COVERAGE IN STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THIS WORK WEEK,
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AS ALWAYS WITH THE MONSOON, IT'S HARD TO SEE WHICH DAY
WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE OUT OF THE BUNCH, BUT DETAILS WILL
BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER. WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINERS, WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AS A SECONDARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 07/12Z.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7-10 K FT AGL TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH VCSH AND
POSSIBLY VCTS FOR KOLS. ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANES AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY OUTFLOWS
AROUND CONVECTION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WEEK,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY 20
TO 45 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 30 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page