606
FXUS65 KTWC 012027
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
127 PM MST WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY FORECAST IS
IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AROUND
NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A PERSISTENT TROUGH HANGS OVER CALIFORNIA, CONTINUING OUR
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS SO TOMORROW.
GENERALLY, IT HAS BEEN OBSERVED 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH A PEAK GUST OF 36 MPH AT PIONEER AIRFIELD. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL, BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GOING FORWARD, THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZES TOMORROW, BUT LESS THAN TODAY. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE
HEATRISK WILL RETURN FOR THE REGION WIDE BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, OPENING UP TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF CLOUDS. VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UP TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE BY MONDAY, THEREFORE INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY CHANCES WILL EXPAND AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EBBS AND BOBS AROUND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING, BUT VARIATION ON THE CENTER'S LOCATION; INFLUENCING THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND THE BEST AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 03/00Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD AT 10-12K FEET
AGL STAYING SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF KDUG THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
INCREASING FEW-SCT AT OR AROUND 25K FEET AGL AFTER 02/03Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 02/03Z, WINDS BECOME LESS THAN 12 KTS AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 02/18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS 5 TO 12
PERCENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING RH VALUES UP AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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