110
FXUS65 KTWC 121907
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1207 PM MST TUE MAY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER
SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING TOMORROW, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD-UPS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TODAY AND FOR COCHISE/GRAHAM/GREENLEE
COUNTIES TOMORROW, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VIRGA OR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A TROUGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA, ORIENTED IN A WEST-EAST. THIS SET WILL CONTINUE
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY, ALTHOUGH, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. BUT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. PLUS,
THERE IS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
PWATS 0.6 INCHES UP TO CLOSE TO 0.70 INCHES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
WEATHER CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TODAY...ENSEMBLE AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO TRIGGER VIRGA AND DRY
LIGHTNING. THE PROBABILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING IS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT, BUT STILL A A RISK DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
GROUND. THE MAIN THREAT FROM VIRGA WILL BE THE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. THE HREF HAS 30% OF SEEING GUSTS GREATER THAN 30KTS OVER
A LARGE SWATH OF AREA FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST. A FEW VIRGA
SHOWERS CAN BE STRONGER, RESULTING IN STRONGER GUSTS. THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTH AND SHIFT EAST, BRINGING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL SHOVE THE
MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH
COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTY WITH LESS THAN 5% FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...OUR PATTERN WILL BE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY THE LATE WEEKEND OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM WITH STRONGER
BREEZES. AS OF NOW, THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SUNDAY BEING A
BREEZIER DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND MINOR
HEATRISK BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED VIRGA/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY 12/19Z TO 13/03Z, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. TERMINALS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN VICINITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE KDUG AND KTUS. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 8-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15-20 KTS THROUGH 13/03Z, THEN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
THROUGH 13/18Z. WINDS AFTER 13/18Z WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
LOWERING SEVERAL DEGREES STARING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
6-14 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND 10-20 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 20-FOOT WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE 15 MPH OR LESS, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
AGAIN IN THE EARLY NEW WEEK, WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH. ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SOME CLOUD BUILD-
UPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (5-15 PERCENT) OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AND/OR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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