467
FXUS65 KTWC 131043
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
343 AM MST THU AUG 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING THE NEEDED DYNAMICS TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAW IN DRIER AIR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WITH CHANCE OF STORMS
EACH DAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN SETS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN WARM UP AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE HEATRISK
DISCUSSION
BEEN A BUSY SOLO MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PINAL, EASTERN PIMA, SOUTHERN
GRAHAM AND NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE HAD SOME IMPRESSSIVE RAINFALL RATES, UP TO 2"/HR,
WHICH RESULTED A FEW SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING BEING ISSUED. SOME WASHES ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME GOOD RESPONSES TO THE RAINFALL. ALL OF THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST THAT EXTENDED
FROM WRN NV TO SRN CA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWED CLEARER SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. SO EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONCE THE SHOWERS END AND THEN SEE SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING AND THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROF. CAN'T RULE OUT A FRISKY STORM OR TWO PRODUCING VERY SMALL
HAIL WITH THE COOL SUMMER MID-LEVEL 500 MB TEMPS OF -6C.
DRIER DOES FILTERS IN ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
ONCE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EASTERLY WAVE, WHICH
IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OF THE GOA, MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ONE AS THIS
MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN WARM UP AGAIN TO
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS RETURNING TO
MOST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/12Z.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CEILING BASES
7-11K FT AGL FROM KTUS EAST DIMINISHING AND COND IMPROVING BY
13/18Z. AFT 13/19Z, WDLY SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS OF 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SFC WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BETWEEN 14/06Z AND 14/16Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING THE NEEDED DYNAMICS TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAW IN DRIER AIR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WITH CHANCE OF STORMS
EACH DAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN SETS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT TODAY LOWERING TO AROUND 15-30
PERCENT THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
THEN WARM UP AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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