085
FXUS65 KTWC 020855
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. SOME MODEST COOLING MIDWEEK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZES THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH MORE
DAILY HEAT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFO. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL NUDGE
WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 3 TO
8 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON WHERE GUSTS WILL BE UP AROUND 30
MPH. THEREAFTER, BRIEF RIDGING WEDNESDAY WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES.
A STRONGER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASED BREEZES. THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
WEEK WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLING WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCALES OR AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. WE START SEEING MORE UNCERTAINTY BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN US WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER AZ OR FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF OF BAJA. NBM INTRODUCES
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WHICH IS REASONABLE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 03/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR LESS THRU 02/19Z, THEN BECOMING
SWLY/WLY SFC WIND AFT 02/19Z AT SPEEDS AT 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24
KTS WITH THE STRONGEST SFC WIND EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF KALK
AND KDUG. SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFT 02/ 03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WILL THEN
COOL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING LATER IN THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK,
RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZES TODAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH WITH GUSTS 20-
25 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30-35 MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT
ALL ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 9-18 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH VALUES RISING 3-7 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
SHOW A CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, WHICH MAY PULL SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DEPENDING UPON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED, TIED OR EXCEEDED
TODAY.
LOCATION FORECAST DAILY RECORD
MON MON
TUCSON 89 91(2009)
ORGAN PIPE 93 93(2009)
AJO 91 92(2009)
PICACHO PEAK 89 89(2009)
ORACLE 80 78(2016)
SAFFORD (TOWN) 87 85(2002)
WILLCOX 85 82(2008)
SIERRA VISTA 85 85(2009)
NOGALES (TOWN) 87 86(2016)
DOUGLAS 87 86(2009)
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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