614
FXUS65 KTWC 100922
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 AM MST FRI APR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
ALSO USHER IN COOLER AIR LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER TODAY AND SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
BUILDUPS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM,
GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
FROM BASELINE NBM IN THESE AREAS BOTH DAYS TO SHOW THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HREF BOTH DAYS DOESN'T SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP, BUT DOES SHOW A THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS FROM HIGHWAY 191 EASTWARD.
ANY OUTFLOWS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KICK UP
DUST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG I-10 EAST OF
WILCOX.
AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-40 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY, WHICH
ALONG WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER AND THE STRONG WINDS, WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. MONDAY THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND RED
FLAG CRITERIA, BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EASTWARD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. RIGHT NOW MODELS
BRING IT THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA, BUT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
COULD LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER ENSEMBLES SHOW BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AROUND
NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE
CURRENTLY LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THE EURO
KEEPS THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE THE
GEFS BRINGS IT THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE GEFS SOLUTION WOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 11/12Z
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET AGL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
FEW-SCT 10K-15K AGL THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF HWY 191. SOME
CLOUD BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OUTFLOWS FROM BUILDUPS WILL AFFECT ANY
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFTER
11/18Z. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 12/02Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN AGAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH
TODAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION, BECOMING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO LOOK DRIER, THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. AS THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIMITED IN SCOPE (10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY FOR GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES). WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MONDAY SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH IT COULD
STILL LINGER ALONG THE NM BORDER MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS
GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ150>152.
HARDIN
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