541
FXUS65 KTWC 042022
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
122 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HAPPY 250TH BIRTHDAY AMERICA. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO STORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH GRADUAL COOLING THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGHER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEADING TO THE CLOUDS. KEMX RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME REFLECTIVITY (VIRGA) ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH THE VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S, NONE
OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND. WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTING IN A SLOWER DIURNAL WARMING TREND TODAY,
AND IT MAY HELP TEMPERATURES UNDERPERFORM IN SPOTS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COMPARED TO EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. OF COURSE WITH ALL THE
OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WE'LL TAKE ANY EDGE OF
THE HEAT THAT WE CAN GET. FOR EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
REGION, BESIDES THE USUAL WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WE SEE ON JULY 4TH,
NO REAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOONAL POSITION THIS WEEK. DURING THE TRANSITION PHASE, AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE BEFORE WE SEE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE, WE'RE GOING
TO BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WHEN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AREAS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK (HIGHS 107 TO 111 DEGREES). GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, WE ISSUED
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE SAFFORD AREA.
MEANWHILE, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK,
INITIALLY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ON MONDAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
NUDGING WESTWARD EACH DAY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. BY WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES OR ABOUT 130 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
SETUP WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER MONDAY, THEN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD TO INCLUDE TUCSON AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SO STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY, THE MAIN THREATS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS BUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
LATER IN THE WEEK, WE'LL ALSO HAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO START DROPPING AND BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/00Z.
BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
BETWEEN 12K-15K FT AGL. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS
15-20 KTS THRU 05/03Z, THEN TRNASITIONING TO TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS BETWEEN 05/03Z AND 05/17Z. THEREAFTER, WLY/NWLY WINDS AT
5-10 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 7-12 MPH
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MIN RH BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED RH VALUES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER STARTING MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ501-502-504>506-509.
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