682
FXUS65 KTWC 032106
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
206 PM MST SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. BREEZY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY, AROUND NORMAL ON MONDAY, FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO TO THE FAR EAST PACIFIC AND A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN INTO
ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING AT ABOUT
250 PERCENT OF NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTY AS WELL. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MUCH
MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY SINCE THE LOW AND RELEVANT DYNAMICS ARE
STILL FAR OFF. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MOVING THROUGH AS A BAND LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND JET STREAK ALOFT. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY 0.01"-0.20" IN THE
VALLEYS AND UP TO 0.5" IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 03/12Z HREF IS
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SPECIFICALLY THE CATALINAS, RINCONS, AND PINALENOS.
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE HREF GIVES THESE LOCATIONS A 50%-70%
CHANCE TO SEE GREATER THAN 0.5" OF RAIN AND 20%-40% CHANCE TO
SEE GREATER THAN 0.75". THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY WINDS
TODAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS 12-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH EXITS THE REGION, BUT MODELS SHOW A
SMALL CLOSED LOW BREAKING OFF THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AND REMAINING OVER SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AS LATE
AS FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL
PROLONG RAIN CHANCES BUT COULD TAMPER THE WARMUP THAT BEGINS
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THEN COOL 4-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY. THEN THE
WARMUP BEGINS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN TUCSON BACK IN THE 90S
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/12Z.
BKN-OVC CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
GRADUALLY DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING 12K-15K FT AGL.
SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
22 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT 5-10 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TURN
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, THEN WILL
INCREASE THOSE WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 20-FOOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
INCOMING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE
18-23 PERCENT RANGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST OF
TUCSON TODAY, WITH VALUES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD. MIN RH VALUES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 17-27
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY, WITH VALUES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY (AND EVEN HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS). RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, AROUND NORMAL MONDAY, FALLING
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN RISING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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