501
FXUS65 KTWC 222202
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
302 PM MST MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA MX/TEXAS BIG BEND. AS THIS HIGH
BUILDS WEST AND STRENGTHENS THIS WEEK, THE HOTTEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 2026 ARE IN THE FORECAST. HEATRISK ACROSS THE
AREA WILL RANGE FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR WITH VERY LOCALIZED
EXTREME. EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR PORTIONS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCALS, MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON, WILL SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO
LOW END CHANCE (10-20%) OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR
THE INTL BORDER EAST OF NOGALES AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. NO
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER JULY
2ND.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (JUNE 30 TO JULY 6)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (38-39% CHANCE)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (39-47% CHANCE) MAINLY
DURING THE JULY 2-6 PERIOD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/00Z.
SKC WITH FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL. SFC WINDS W-NW
8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THRU 23/03Z AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 23/18Z. AT OTHER TIMES, SFC WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN
8 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS
WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH STRONGER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ELEVATED MOST AFTERNOONS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
VALLEYS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. NO STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE MOVES IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY RAISING RH 5-10 PERCENT AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR AZZ504>507-509.
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