173
FXUS65 KTWC 161031
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
331 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING STRONG TO VERY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, AND WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTFUL TO
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GUSTY EAST WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP SINCE LATE
LAST NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 75 MPH
AS OF 230 AM. VAD WIND PROFILES ON TUCSON RADAR (KEMX) SHOWED
E-SE WINDS UP TO 50 KTS BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE AREA WAS AROUND 12 MBS. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING BRIEF PERIODS OF LENTICULAR
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND THE 1040 TO 1043 MB
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. HIGH WIND WARNING
AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL PULL IN REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM SIMON, WHICH WAS SOUTH OF CABO
THIS MORNING, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN
LIFT AND OPEN UP ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, TO SE AZ.
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (20-50 PERCENT) EACH DAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST PD WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS 6K-10K FROM KTUS-KOLS W AFT 16/21Z. SFC WINDS ELY/SELY
25-40 KTS WITH GUSTS 45-60 KTS. THIS WILL BE A MOUNTAIN-WAVE
PATTERN, WITH VERY STRONG DESCENDING WINDS OCCURING ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING RESULTING IN STRONG
TO VERY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING. LOCATIONS ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TERRAIN
GAPS, AND EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING. FOR THESE AREAS EXPECT SPEEDS
35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS 55-75 MPH THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING,
THEN 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-60 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 25-40 PERCENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ503>509-
511>514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ502-515.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ503>509-
511>514.
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