732
FXUS65 KTWC 170707
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1207 AM MST FRI APR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND MILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT MAY RESULT
IN BLOWING DUST IMPACTS ACROSS THE SAN SIMON VALLEY NEAR THE
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
IMPORT INTO THE AREA SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING IS
DEFINED BY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN BAJA AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY TRACK EAST TODAY. THE
WEAK TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY WILL NOT
ONLY COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THURSDAY,
BUT WE WILL SEE LOCALIZED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ALONG AND NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 12-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH IS THEN REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES 2-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH TO
THOSE LOCATIONS PRONE TO EASTERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS
MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE
DUST-PRONE AREAS OF THE SAN SIMON VALLEY WHICH IMPACT PORTIONS
OF INTERSTATE-10 BETWEEN WILLCOX AND THE AZ/NM STATE LINE). IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST, THIS EASTERLY FLOW
WILL IMPORT JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15
PERCENT) OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFER A WIDE VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE WEST COAST. THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHOULD OPEN-UP THE MEAN TROUGH, FORCING INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES TO RAPIDLY PASS NORTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS NEXT
WEEK, EVENTUALLY TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE WOULD REMAIN DRY, WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DRY SHORTWAVES.
&
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/12Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
THRU 17/14Z, THEN SKC PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 17/18Z, THEN WLY/NWLY
10-16 KTS AND GUSTS 20-26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SUNNY AND MILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. A BIT
BREEZY AT TIMES EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES 10-15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 20-FOOT WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SUNDAY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AND
SAN SIMON VALLEY. RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL BE 8-15 PERCENT FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD AND 15-25 PERCENT EAST OF TUCSON. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO IMPORT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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