582
FXUS65 KTWC 132156
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST MON APR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY WINDS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. AFTER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
GUSTY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SOME OF
THE GRADIENT GUSTS BEING ENHANCED BY RAIN SHOWERS BRINGING
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME PEAK WIND GUSTS SINCE
MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN 70 MPH AT/NEAR PATAGONIA, 62 MPH AT PIONEER
AIRFIELD WEST OF FT. HUACHUCA, 58 MPH IN THE CHIRICAHUA MTNS AND
50 MPH NEAR SAN SIMON ALONG I-10. DUST HASN'T BEEN TOO MUCH OF
A PROBLEM SO FAR BUT WENT AHEAD ANYWAY TO ISSUE A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY FOR I-10 EAST OF WILLCOX TO THE STATE LINE WHICH LINES
UP NICELY WITH WHAT EL PASO HOISTED FOR THEIR PORTIONS OF I-10
IN HIDALGO COUNTY. NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH RH VALUES MOSTLY
IN THE 20S. THE WIND AND SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS EASING AFTER SUNSET WITH ANY SHOWERS
LIMITED TO AREAS NE OF TUCSON INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY: COOLER AND NOT AS WINDY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY: TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH HIGHS 4 TO 9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
THURSDAY: THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS
WILL BE AND HOW MUCH AREA WILL POTENTIALLY BE NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. WENT AHEAD AND USED 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE NBM
WIND GRIDS TO SHOW HIGHER WINDS VERSUS STRAIGHT NBM. THESE
WINDS WILL BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYS 4 THRU 7 (FRIDAY APRIL 17 TO MONDAY APRIL 20)
LESS WINDY FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRY WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
HIGHS WILL RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THIS PERIOD, USING NBM AS THE INITIALIZATION, LOOKS GOOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (APRIL 21-27)
TEMPERATURE: NEAR NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION: NEAR NORMAL.
&
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 15/00Z.
SCT-BKN 8-12K FT AGL BKN ABOVE 15KT FT AGL THRU 14/15Z
THEN BECOMING SKC FROM W TO E THRU THE END OF VALID PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA, SLGT CHC -TSRA POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EAST THRU
14/04Z. SFC WINDS SWLY 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-40 KTS THRU
14/05Z. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 14/06Z BECOMING SLY
8-12 KTS. SFC WINDS AFTER 14/18Z WLY 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 30 TO 50 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE
TODAY HAS KEPT RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SHOWERS
WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
TUCSON EAST INTO THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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