167
FXUS65 KTWC 062046
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
146 PM MST THU AUG 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AFTER INCREASED ACTIVITY YESTERDAY, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY.
FRIDAY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
EASTWARD. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK EXPECT DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY-SUNDAY, THEN AROUND NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S MCV HAS NOW MOVED TO FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST SONORA WITH ITS OUTER CLOUD BANDS WITH
VERY WEAK SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. EAST OF
TUCSON ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WHITE AND
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. IN THE VALLEYS MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, BUT THIS WILL ERODE AWAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVEN WITH YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE BIGGER
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. AREA WASHES AND RIVERS SUCH AS THE SAN PEDRO ARE ALSO
CURRENTLY RUNNING AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MORE RAIN
FALLS. THIS AFTERNOON THE HREF PAINTS COCHISE COUNTY AS HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STORM CHANCES EXPANDING FURTHER WEST INTO
TUCSON AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THE HREF IS ALSO SHOWING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A LARGE 10
PERCENT CONTOUR FOR 50 KT WINDS OR GREATER FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND RISES IN AREA
WASHES AND RIVERS.
THIS WEEKEND THE RIDGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH, BUT WILL STILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. NBM PROBABILITIES DO SHOW A DOWNTURN IN STORM
CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS EXTENDING FROM AJO TO HIGHWAY 191.
EXPECT NORMAL MONSOON HAZARDS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA WASHES AND RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR RISES ESPECIALLY IN WATERSHEDS THAT HAVE SEEN
RAINFALL EACH DAY THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES BECOMING 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK FOR THE TUCSON
METRO AND THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS DECREASE WHICH RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO AROUND NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH STICKS AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO COVER MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 09/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF KTUS. KDUG WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEEN TSRA. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN 8K-12K FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD, SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 07/05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME VARIATION IN COVERAGE EACH DAY. TODAY
STORMS WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF TUCSON, THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FRIDAY TO ENCOMPASS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 2-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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