995
FXUS65 KTWC 022122
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. SOME MODEST COOLING MIDWEEK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZES THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TUESDAY: SHORT-WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING COOLER AIR
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH AN
ENHANCEMENT IN AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 DEGREES
OF COOLING UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW.
THURSDAY: COOLING TREND CONTINUES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RUN 2 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGES OCCURRING WEST OF TUCSON. AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH,
STRONGEST EAST OF TUCSON.
DAYS 4-7 (FRI MAR 6 TO MON MAR 9)
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NE A
SECONDARY SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL END UP
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT, HOW FAST IT WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. MOST RECENT NBM HAS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE 10-20% RANGE ON SATURDAY, 20-30% RANGE ON SUNDAY & 15-35%
RANGE ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME QPF VALUES LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LEVELS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM BASELINE FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (MAR 10-16)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING TO LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (40-60%)
PRECIPITATION: NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/00Z.
MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE FCST PD. SWLY/WLY SFC
WINDS 8-12 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THRU 03/03Z, THEN BCMG
LIGHT AND VRBL LESS THAN 10 KTS. STRONGER SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS AFT
03/18Z 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-26 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THEY WILL COOL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING LATER IN THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZES TODAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH WITH GUSTS 20- 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 9-18
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH VALUES RISING 3-7 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW IN THE
VICINITY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WHICH MAY
PULL SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DEPENDING UPON HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED, TIED OR EXCEEDED
TODAY.
LOCATION FORECAST DAILY RECORD
MON MON
TUCSON 89 91(2009)
ORGAN PIPE 93 93(2009)
AJO 91 92(2009)
PICACHO PEAK 89 89(2009)
ORACLE 80 78(2016)
SAFFORD (TOWN) 87 85(2002)
WILLCOX 85 82(2008)
SIERRA VISTA 85 85(2009)
NOGALES (TOWN) 87 86(2016)
DOUGLAS 87 86(2009)
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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