182
FXUS65 KTWC 161948
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1248 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS APPROACHING NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TO BE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY/ SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TO NEAR OR AT RECORD LEVELS. THE
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUCSON ON FRIDAY IS 83
DEGREES AND THE RECORD THAT DAY IS 82 DEGREES SET IN 2024.
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME-
FRAME CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST.
WHILE THIS SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS IN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS MAINLY KEEP THE STRONGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WEST
OF THE REGION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES HIGHLIGHT OUR
AREA FOR A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS AND SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER 23 THROUGH THE 29TH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
AN ARRIVAL OF LIKELY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING. MORE DETAILS TO COME AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
AREA AFT 17/03Z THROUGH TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 11-16 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
20- FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOWER TO 12-22 PERCENT ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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