369
FXUS65 KTWC 261951
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1251 PM MST SUN APR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
IS RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST IN COCHISE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY AND REMAINING THERE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES
WHERE SEVERAL STATIONS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 50 MPH.
WE'VE SEEN SOME BLOWING DUST ON SATELLITE OFF THE WILLCOX PLAYA BUT
WEBCAMS DON'T INDICATE ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT. WITH
THAT SAID, THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPACTS/ISSUES.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR COCHISE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
CERTAINLY COOLER WITH THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM AS HIGHS IN TUCSON
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.
LESS WIND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
STILL SOME BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OR SO MAINLY NEAR THE NM
BORDER ESPECIALLY MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE NOTHING TOO NOTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS FLAT RIDGING MOVES THROUGH.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
TRENDS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN.
WE CONTINUE TO STILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND DEPTH/STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW, WEDNESDAY IS
GENERALLY LOOKING DRY WITH SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS OF WARMER
ORIGIN SO IT WON'T KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS
REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/00Z.
FEW-SCT 6-12K FT AGL THRU 27/02Z, THEN MAINLY SKC FOR THE REST OF
THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WINDS SWLY/WLY 15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KTS THRU 27/03Z THEN DIMINISHING AND BCMG TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN
10 KTS THRU 27/16Z. SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS RESUME AFT 27/16Z, INCREASING
TO 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS FOR KDUG/KALK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45
MPH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM, SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS THE MOVE IN EARLY TO MID
WEEK (THOUGH SOME BREEZES CONTINUE NEAR THE NM BORDER) WITH A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN BY AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ507-508.
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