134
FXUS65 KTWC 020750
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS RETURN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT SLIDES EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AN EASTERLY WIND EPISODE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH IN THOSE
LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS
KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE EAST WINDS
BEGIN TO KICK IN, WITH HIGHS LOWERING AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES
AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ONTO A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA, WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
AND ANY PRECIPITATION (IF IT DOES OCCUR) LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK (OUT AT DAYS 7-10), ALL SIGNS
POINT TO A PATTERN CHANGE. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, ENSEMBLES AND
CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALL SHOW WEST COAST TROUGHING. OF COURSE THIS IS
WAY TO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 03/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AND SFC WIND 12 KTS OR LESS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG EASTERLY WIND EPISODE IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-
25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS.
MIN RH LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY (30+ PERCENT
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS), WITH RH LEVELS LOWERING INTO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE AT ALL ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH
LEVELS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE AREAWIDE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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