184
FXUS65 KTWC 220850
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAILY BUT GRADUALLY
REDUCED CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. LATEST GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 INCH FOR LOCALES EAST OF TUCSON,
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND
THESE VALUES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WITH THE DRIER AIR EAST OF TUCSON, COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT MORE
ISOLATED OUT THAT WAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH THE STORMS IS FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS DUE TO INVERTED-V PROFILES. THE HREF 40-KM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITY INDICATES A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 50-KT WINDS FROM
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE T.O. NATION AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE A SECONDARY
CONCERN. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INITIALLY REMAIN TO OUR EAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO 'COOL' A FEW DEGREES THOSE TWO DAYS, THAT
WON'T LAST LONG AS THE HIGH WILL TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP AS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE BEYOND TODAY, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE
SOME MOISTURE REMAINS, AS THE HIGH BUILDS WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
INCREASES, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH A LOWER GRADE PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/12Z. SCT CLOUDS 9-13K FT AGL
THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AFT 22/21Z,
MAINLY WEST OF A KFHU-KSAD LINE, DIMINISHING BY 23/06Z. GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY BUT GRADUALLY REDUCED CHANCES AS NEXT WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY 15-30 PERCENT EACH DAY
WITH LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ501-502-
504>506-509.
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