479
FXUS65 KTWC 300838
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS. A WEATHER SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY.
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT,
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (5-10 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL 3-6 DEGREES MONDAY (VERSUS TODAY) ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN TAKES PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE ON INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.
LATE IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ALL POINT TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER/BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
LOWERING 5-8 DEGREES THURSDAY (VERSUS WEDNESDAY) AND THEN ANOTHER 2-
4 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STORM TRACK AND HENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO FLOP BETWEEN A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY (LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS) AND A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED
UPPER LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS). THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS, WITH THURSDAY BEING
THE MORE FAVORED DAY FOR PRECIPITATION (30-50 PERCENT). SNOW LEVELS
START BETWEEN 7,500 AND 8,000 FEET THURSDAY, LOWERING TO 6,500 TO
7,000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS
SURROUNDING THE TUCSON METRO.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND 12
KTS OR LESS THRU THE VALID PERIOD, FAVORING A SWLY THRU NWLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (5-
10 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY, THEN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LOWERING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO
40-50 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 20-FOOT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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