277
FXUS65 KTWC 010909 CCA
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 AM MST MON JUN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK, THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOISTURE ALSO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
THE SKY WAS CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NW MEXICO. THAT WILL BE CHANGING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ON THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE MAY 16TH WITH A FORECAST
HIGH OF 99 DEGREES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THEM HANGING +/- A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MOISTURE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO TOMORROW WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS SPREADING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE, GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, THUS LEANING MORE DRY THAN WET.
MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LINGERING
STORM CHANCES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN US.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (JUNE 8-14)
TEMPERATURE:
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (53%-55% CHANCE) WITH THE FIRST REAL HOT
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE FROM JUNE 11TH TO 14TH. LOW
END LESS THAN 10% CHANCE THAT TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS COULD
SEE 110+ BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
PRECIPITATION:
LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33%-36% CHANCE) MAINLY TUCSON EAST
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/12Z.
SKC THRU 01/16Z, THEN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM THE SW THRU 02/06Z, THEN DECREASING FROM THE SW
THRU END OF VALID PD. SFC WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 10
KTS THRU 01/17Z AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 02/04Z. BTWN 01/17Z AND
02/04Z, SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 8-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA
EARLY THIS WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 6-18 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 12-25 PERCENT RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 MPH
THROUGH THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BY WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (10 TO 60 PERCENT,
HIGHEST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS), WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS COCHISE, GRAHAM, GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH EASTERN PIMA,
SE PINAL & SANTA CRUZ ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ANY MOISTURE PUSH. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY DRY. CHANCES CAN LINGER MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, THEN DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE THE MONTHLY/SEASONAL RANKINGS FOR TUCSON
MAY: 25TH WARMEST AND 29TH WETTEST
SPRING: WARMEST AND 52ND DRIEST
THE MAY/SPRING MONTHLY/SEASONAL REVIEWS WILL BE POSTED ON OUR
WEBSITE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/TWC/2026MONTHLYREVIEWS#MAY
THE ZERO LEAD TIME JUNE OUTLOOKS BY CPC WERE RELEASED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (37%-44% CHANCE)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (34%-44% CHANCE) MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page