132
FXUS65 KTWC 102006
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
106 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND WILL REMAIN IN A SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY FROM GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES. TUCSON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
CHANCES TODAY. CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BRING AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND BLOWING DUST. THIS RISK OF
THESE HAZARDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO TREND DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
AND BLOWING DUST. MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE KEY AREAS OF FOCUS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON, GENERALLY
ON A LINE FROM NOGALES TO BENSON TO SAFFORD, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FROM SASABE TO TUCSON NORTH AND WEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE TUCSON METRO WILL BE THE FAR EAST, SOUTH, AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CITY.
THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE DUST, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH, AND FLASH FLOODING. HIGH RES CAMS AND HREF
SHOW HIGH PROBS OF WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30KTS
WITH ~10% OF 50 KTS. THIS IS PUSHING US TOWARD GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF MORE DUST ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN PIMA TO THE NM BORDER AND WILL
BE CONSIDERING ISSUING A DUST ADV TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SIGNAL.
AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS WILL BE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE INTO EASTERN SANTA CRUZ
COS, WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.75" WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2" OCCURRED YESTERDAY EVENING. HREF AND
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS 6HR PMM AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.25" WITH
REASONABLE HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5". THIS WOULD EASILY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IF SIMILAR AREAS ARE HIT AGAIN. OF NOTE IS THE
UPPER REACHES OF THE SAN PEDRO RIVER, MORE SPECIFICALLY IN
NORTHERN SONORA, WHERE 1-3"+ FELL YESTERDAY. THIS RESULTED IN
THE RIVER AT PALOMINAS HITTING ACTION STAGE. IF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN HITS SIMILAR REACHES OF THE UPPER BASINS, IT COULD
PUSH THE RIVER INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT PALOMINAS AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST BIT OF ACTIVITY IS SHOWING IN NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COS AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS BY LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NE NEAR THE 4-CORNERS, BEFORE ELONGATING AND MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CENTRAL US LATER NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES GIVING WAY
TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS SEAZ. THE SPC HAS PLACED
SEAZ IN A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LOOKING AT SOME
OF THE CAMS, SUGGEST INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THE RIM, EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR
BROKEN LINES. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AS COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE, ESPECIALLY IF BETTER
ORGANIZATION CAN BE ACHIEVED AS IT MOVES WEST. THE TUCSON METRO
AND THE LOWER DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY ARE IN PLAY FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SHOW MOST OF THE
METRO IMPACTED.
SUNDAY BECOMES A LITTLE MESSIER AND IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS INITIATING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY/SANTA CRUZ, MOVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF SEAZ. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING POSE THE GREATEST RISK. DUST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED ENOUGH HEAVIER RAIN TO
LESSEN DUST TRANSPORT FOR SOURCE REGIONS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH 19Z SATURDAY/
VALID THROUGH 11/12Z.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 8K-11K AGL BASES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THROUGH
KSAD-KDUG-KOLS AFTER 10/20Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT THROUGH THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH KSAD WHERE 15-18 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY WHERE 15-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY FROM GRAHAM/GREENLEE SOUTH THROUGH COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES, WITH TUCSON ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY DOWN TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY,
OTHERWISE ABOVE 20-25 PERCENT ELSEWHERE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
THIS WEEKEND. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH
MORNING WITH THE INCREASE IN MONSOON ACTIVITY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ507>509-512-513.
SYNOPSIS...
DISCUSSION...MICHAEL
AVIATION...MICHAEL
FIRE WEATHER...MICHAEL
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page