805
FXUS65 KTWC 222000
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST WED JUL 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-GRADE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE
WILL ALSO SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN EVENTUALLY MOVES
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW CLOUD BUILD-UPS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MOST OF THE BUILD-UPS
IN THE WHITE AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND EAST IN NEW
MEXICO. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STICKS AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RECONSOLIDATES. AS THE
THREAT FOR STORMS DECREASES, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES IN THE TUCSON
METRO, WESTERN DESERTS, AND UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. THIS INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE WARM LOW TEMPERATURES OF
80 TO 85 DEGREES LEAD TO HOISTING UP AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FOR THE
VALLEYS, SO BE AWARE OF THE SIGNS FOR HEAT ILLNESS/STROKE, STAY
HYDRATED, STAY INDOORS WITH AIR CONDITIONING WHEN POSSIBLE, AND
CONSIDER MOVING PLANS INDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST TIME OF DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE INCREASING AND A FAVORABLE UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL BRING BACK MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE 4
CORNERS ALLOWING FOR SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
WIND AND DUST LOOK TO BE THE GREATEST IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MORE DETAILS WILL
COME INTO FOCUS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/00Z.
SCT-BKN 6-8K FT AGL AND BKN 12-14K FT AGL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF KTUS. VFR, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR DUE TO STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS, EXCEPT
FOR AROUND STORMS WHERE VRB GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-GRADE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE
WILL ALSO SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN EVENTUALLY MOVES
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIN RHS
25-30% IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND ABOVE 40% IN THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, RHS COULD DIP
INTO THE 17-22% RANGE FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WEST OF TUCSON AND
THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. WINDS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15
MPH, THOUGH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR AZZ501>509.
JT
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