679
FXUS65 KTWC 241943
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1243 PM MST WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A
RAPID WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONGER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN UNDER THE LOW AS
TEMPERATURES DROP 10+ DEGREES THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES AS A STRONGER LOW DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. PROBABLY
WINDIER SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE NORTH OF US, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE STARTS.
WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS SAGGING BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT
AFTER A COOLER MORNING WE'LL ALREADY BE SEEING A QUICK WARMUP
UNDERWAY. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 24/01Z, THEN CLEARING FROM THE
WEST. SLY/SWLY SFC WIND AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22-28 KTS
UNTIL 25/02Z, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST AFTER 25/17Z, AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF
COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES, HOWEVER MIN RH LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AS WELL AS
STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY (MAYBE A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON). MIN RH VALUES IN THE
VALLEYS WILL INCREASE TO 12-20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 25-50 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO START THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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