621
FXUS65 KTWC 122125
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4" IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TO
1.0" IN TUCSON. EAST OF TUCSON PWATS ARE STILL BELOW AN INCH,
BUT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ALOFT BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH TROUGHING WELL TO THE
NORTH. ARIZONA WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE VALUES UP. CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS WEST OF
TUCSON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED. TONIGHT A COUPLE HREF
MEMBER SHOW WEAK SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON, BUT AGAIN WILL MOST
LIKELY BE VIRGA IF IT FORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
MOST ACTIVITY STAYING EAST OF I-19 AND SOUTH OF I-10 ALONG WITH
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. TUCSON AND SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STORM CHANCES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE 12/12Z HREF SHOWING A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS FROM TUCSON SOUTH
AND EASTWARD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR COVERAGE AND POPS TO
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SUNDAY POPS EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. DURING THIS TIME
THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD SLOWLY AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS BEGINS TO TURN WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY
WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO DECREASE LATE MONDAY. BY TUESDAY PWAT
VALUES DECREASE TO 0.75"-1.0". HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY. STILL A LITTLE WAYS OFF BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY NEXT
WEEK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS FOR 10K-13K FT AGL AND AOA 20K FT AGL THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS 10K-13K FT AGL FROM CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY SOUTH AND EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -TSRA ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA AT KDUG
AND KOLS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO NEAR KTUS. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 25-35 KTS. OTHERWISE, SFC
WINDS WILL BE WLY/NWLY 8-14 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS AT KSAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFT 13/04Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST EACH DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 22 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY 10-20 PERCENT TODAY AND 20-30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 30-40 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING TODAY
MAINLY ALONG THE INT'L BORDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON, WITH
BETTER CHANCES (10-50 PERCENT) FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL SLIGHT (10-20 PERCENT)
STORM CHANCES LINGER ALONG THE INT'L BORDER FROM NOGALES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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