417
FXUS65 KTWC 190830
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 AM MST THU MAR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANTLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VISITORS,
SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY ACCUSTOMED TO
OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
STRONG RIDGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS LEADING TO AN ANOMALOUS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS NOW LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BORDER. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CENTERING OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, 20-25 DEGREES WARMER, ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED. SEVERAL DAYTIME AND MONTHLY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
BROKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 DEGREES SET MARCH
26, 1988 IS ON TAP TO BE BROKEN, AS WELL AS THE EARLIEST 100
DEGREE DAY IN TUCSON (CURRENT RECORD APRIL 11, 2025). DUE TO THE
TRULY ABNORMAL HEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
IS IN EFFECT STARTING TODAY, MARCH 19TH AT 11 AM MST THROUGH THE
EVENING OF SUNDAY, MARCH 22ND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH VALUES TUCSON WESTWARD 100 TO 108 DEGREES AND
EAST OF TUCSON 95 TO 100 DEGREES. HEAT WILL BE AT DANGEROUS LEVELS
FOR THOSE UNACCUSTOMED OR NOT YET ACCLIMATED TO THE HEAT AT THIS
POINT IN THE YEAR.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE REPRIEVE IN THE FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AGAIN RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S.
AFTERNOON BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/12Z.
MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
GREATER THAN 25K FT AGL. SFC WINDS NWLY AT 6-9 KTS AFTER 19/20Z
THROUGH 20/06Z. OTHERWISE, SFC WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 20 TO 25
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH. BREEZIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT. MINIMUM RHS 5 TO
15 PERCENT.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE MAR 19 MAR 20 MAR 21
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 100 95/1907 102 94/2017102 92/2017
AJO 103 97/2007 106 98/2017105 97/1997
KITT PEAK 85 72/2017 87 76/2017 86 76/2004
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 105 95/2017 108 99/2004106 99/2004
PICACHO PEAK 99 96/2017 101 95/2004 100 94/2004
SAFFORD AG STATION 96 91/2017 100 92/2017 100 92/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD 92 87/2017 95 86/2017 95 88/2017
TOMBSTONE 92 89/2017 95 86/2017 95 88/2017
WILLCOX 93 86/2017 97 90/2017 97 87/2017
EARLIEST DATES BY THRESHOLD AND RECORDED MARCH MONTHLY RECORD
STATION EARLIEST 95 EARLIEST 100 MARCH RECORD
TUCSON MARCH 5 (1910) APRIL 11 (2025) 99 (1988)
SAFFORD APRIL 8 (1989) APRIL 28 (2000) 93 (2025)
NOGALES MARCH 31 (1969) MAY 6 (2020) 93 (2025)
DOUGLAS APRIL 7 (1989) MAY 12 (1996) 92 (1989)
SIERRA VISTA APRIL 19 (1989) MAY 22 (1989) 91 (1989)
WILLCOX APRIL 12 (2025) MAY 8 (1989) 92 (1907)
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR AZZ501>509.
MALARKEY
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