464
FXUS65 KTWC 282122
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS
TO THE AREA BEGINING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR FROM 2025 TO 2026.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM OFF NRN BAJA NE INTO NE AZ. TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NE SONORA MX AND
NE CHIHUAHUA MX. AT THE SURFACE, A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WAS OVER
NE NM/NW TX MOVING TO THE SW.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY: CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM TUCSON EAST
AS THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS A 10%-35% CHANCE OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALSO GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL SEE SPEEDS MOSTLY 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY UP TO 2-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUCSON WEST AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST OF
TUCSON WHERE THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE HAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAP IN TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BECOME OUR
WEATHER MAKER MID-WEEK AS SAY GOODBYE TO 2025 AND WELCOME IN A
WET START TO 2026. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE STATE MID-WEEK AND
HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. EC ENSEMBLE AND ITS AI COUNTERPART
ARE WETTER WITH LARGER QPF SPREADS VERSUS GFS ENSEMBLE AND ITS AI
COUNTERPART AND SMALLER QPF SPREADS. AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE
GOOD FOR VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LATE NEW YEARS EVE
INTO NEW YEARS DAY. SINCE THIS IS A WARM SYSTEM THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
HIGHS TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
WEST OF KTUS: CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL BCMG SCT-BKN BY 29/12Z WITH
ADDL CLOUDS 12KFT-18KFT AGL DVLPG THRU END OF VALID PD. SFC WINDS
WLY LESS THAN 10 KTS 29/04Z THEN BCMG NELY/ELY 6-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS AFT 20 KTS BY 29/14Z AND CONTG THRU END OF VALID
PD.
KTUS EAST: SKC TO FEW CLOUDS 10KFT AGL THRU 29/03Z THEN BCMG
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10KT FT AGL THRU 29/12Z AND CONTG THRU END OF
VALID PD. SFC WINDS SWLY/WLY 6-12 KTS THRU 29/04Z THEN BCMG E-SE
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTG THRU THE
END OF THE VALID PD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GREENLEE,
GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY, EASTERLY 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, RANGING FROM 35-45 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 50-70 PERCENT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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