487
FXUS65 KTWC 282035
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, COOLING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BE WITH US ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT ON THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING
TO BACK OFF ON ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ONCE THE TROUGH
PASSES, TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL BEFORE
A MORE UNCERTAIN AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHWARD AND
POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN AND RESULTING WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT NBM POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN TAILING BACK THEREAFTER ARE REASONABLE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND 12
KTS OR LESS THRU THE VALID PERIOD, FAVORING A WLY/NWLY DIRECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10-15 PERCENT) OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, COOLING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 20-
30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ALONG WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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