743
FXUS65 KTWC 052108
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASING, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR MOST OF
COCHISE COUNTY, SANTA CRUZ COUNTY, AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA
COUNTY.
2. TEMPERATURES COOL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR A COUPLE DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
3. MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, A TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WERE LEADING TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. WIDESPREAD 15 TO
25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, WITH THE STRONGER END OF THE SPECTRUM
COMING FROM EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND KEEP WESTERLY BREEZES GOING AMID A REGIME OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
COOLER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 7 TO 11
DEGREES BELOW TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AND AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING
ALOFT, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THE BASE OF THE LINGERING TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE AND DROP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS CLOSED LOW WITHIN
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO CARRY UNCERTAINTY, AS MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO EVENTUALLY TRANSITION THE LOW OUT OF THE
REGION. RECENT RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THIS TRANSITION
A BIT, WHICH HAS TRIMMED DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY
AND NUDGED THEM UP ON TUESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO TIME PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE OVERALL FAVORED TIME PERIOD
FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE CHANCES STILL CARRY THEIR OWN UNCERTAINTY TOO,
WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING THE LOW DEEPER INTO SONORA, WHICH
WOULD KEEP SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA PRECIPITATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ALL THAT TO SAY THERE ARE DEFINITELY STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. A FURTHER DELAY IN THE EXIT OF THIS TROUGH
WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE EITHER.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY SUNDAY, THEN DIP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WHEN THE TROUGH DOES EXIT EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD RIDGING TAKES
OVER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 07/00Z.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
THROUGH 06/03Z, THEN BREEZY 8-14 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN KDUG VICINITY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
06/18Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. SKC-FEW CIGS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT THROUGH 06/00Z, THEN
MAINLY SKC. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WINDS REDUCE THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN RHS
WILL BE 9 TO 15 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
ARIZONA. COOLER BUT STILL DRY ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE INCREASES
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ151-152-154.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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