867
FXUS65 KTWC 212012
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
THEN COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGINING CHRISTMAS DAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES DON'T RESPOND UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TEMPERATURES "COOL" 2-3 DEGREES COMPARED TO
OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER TUESDAY A COUPLE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FIRST MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (20-30
PERCENT) IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE CORE OF THE LOW PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH KEEPS PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NORTH. THE SECOND TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO ITS SPEED AND DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE AGAIN CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY BELOW 25
PERCENT. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL BE 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/00Z.
SKC FIRST HALF OF VALID PD, THEN FEW-SCT THIN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT
MOVING THRU DURING SECOND HALF OF VALID PD. SFC WINDS MOSTLY
W/NW THIS AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KTS. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SFC
WINDS AFTER 22/02Z BECOMING W/NW AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING DISTURBANCE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 21 DEC 22 DEC 23
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 81 80/1917 80 82/1917 78 80/2021
AJO 80 80/1981 79 80/2016 78 81/2005
KITT PEAK 67 67/2003 65 64/1962 61 65/2005
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 81 81/1969 80 82/1955 79 82/1950
PICACHO PEAK 75 79/2005 73 79/2005 72 78/2021
SAFFORD AG STATION 72 71/1979 73 73/2021 73 72/2005
SIERRA VISTA FD 75 77/1969 77 75/2000 73 75/1917
TOMBSTONE 75 75/1955 76 81/1950 73 77/1955
WILLCOX 71 73/2003 73 72/1955 71 73/2021
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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