756
FXUS65 KTWC 281955
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1255 PM MST SUN JUN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SUPPORTING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY FROM SELLS EASTWARD WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM MST. TOMORROW, BREEZINESS CONTINUES BUT WILL ONLY SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO TRY TO BUILD
TO OUR SOUTH AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE SOME MOISTURE TRY AND CREEP IN AROUND
THURSDAY (AT LEAST IN THE MID-LEVELS) WHICH MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILD-UPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE RESETTING WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A WAIT AND SEE FOR HOW THE
PATTERN EVOLVES HEADING INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL THRU VALID PD, OTRW SKC. SFC WINDS
W-SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER
29/03Z. WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 29/17Z WITH SPEEDS OF 13-22
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH THE MORE ELEVATED RHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EXPECT 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-40
MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG THAT IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS EVENING, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTH
LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
STAY MAINLY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ150>154.
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