729
FXUS65 KTWC 120919
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 AM MST SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY, THEN
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AND MONDAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TODAY INTO MONDAY IT WILL OPEN UP AND BREAK
INTO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, ONE OF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARIZONA MONDAY. THIS LOW ALREADY BROUGHT BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY
AND WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BOTH DAYS. THE WIND MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING DUST FOR NORMAL TROUBLE AREAS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE TODAY LEADING TO RH
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD FROM
11 AM TO 8 PM.
MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES COOL AND
MOISTURE INCREASES MARGINALLY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN COCHISE COUNTY AND NORTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY EVENING IN PINAL
COUNTY AND NORTHERN GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, BRINGING THE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND NORMAL TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION VALID THOUGH 13/12Z
SKC THIS MORNING, THEN BKN AOA 15KT FT AGL AFTER 12/18Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS
AFTER 12/18Z THROUGH 13/04Z. AFTER 13/04Z WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.
DRYER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN PLACE. WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER, WINDS
GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ150>152.
HARDIN
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