606
FXUS65 KTWC 170349
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
848 PM MST THU JUL 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN
LOCATION AND SEVERITY.
UPDATE
WENT AHEAD AND EXPIRED/CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. WE'RE STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HEAVY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN AREA WASHES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF AREAS THAT WERE HIT
EARLIER WITH HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED AT 233 PM MST/ MY CONCERN WHEN HOISTING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE DURING THE MONSOON IS WHAT
HAPPENS THE DAY BEFORE AND WILL THERE BE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
STARTING THE MORNING TO MESS WITH THE FLASH FLOOD DAY FORECAST. WELL
THAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING, AN OH NO MOMENT, WITH A CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD DECK AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD
DECK HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
RATHER QUICK IN THE CLOUD BREAKS IN A RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY IS RATHER CHAOTIC TODAY WITH
UPPER LOW OVER WRN TX AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NW AZ BRINGING
A NORTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS AN MCV WEST OF ORGAN PIPE NTL MON THAT IS DEVELOPING STORMS IN
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.
PWATS ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM 1.3" NEAR AZ/NM BORDER TO
ALMOST 2" OVER WRN AZ. THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASED FLASH FLOODING
THREAT TO MOST OF THE AREA. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD EXCEED 2"/HOUR SO SOME OF THE FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE CONSIDERABLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES THRU 9 PM, AND FOR
PINAL, PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 12 AM FRIDAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO HAVE ANOTHER SLOW START
TO THE CONVECTION, WITH CAMS HITTING THE INTL BORDER WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE DAILY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED AGAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NEXT WEEK KEEPING AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 17/07Z BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THRU 17/13Z. HEAVY RAIN, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AND
ERRATIC STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM,
WITH CEILINGS MAINLY 9K-12K FEET. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CHANCE OF -SHRA/TS
DEVELOPING AFT 17/19Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH DAY TO
DAY VARIABILITY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25-30 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEK. WINDS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND UNDER 15
MPH, THOUGH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
WASHES, CREEKS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN COCHISE
COUNTY WEST THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND INTO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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