904
FXUS65 KTWC 110920
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH SUNNY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IS DEFINED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP APPROXIMATELY
10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY'S READINGS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 10
DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90 DEGREES FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS, AND INTO THE 80S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, THEY WILL RESULT IN A MINOR HEATRISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THOSE INDIVIDUALS WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS WEEKEND ARE URGED TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
HYDRATION AND SEEK SHADE FROM THE DIRECT SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA FOR THOSE NOT USED TO THE HEAT OR
HEAT SENSITIVE TO SHIFT THE TIMING OF THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS HEAT MAY ONLY BE THE APPETIZER FOR NEXT WEEK.
MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
OVERHEAD. THE LATEST 11/05Z NBM PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 100+ DEGREES AT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(KTUS) IS 28% NEXT WEDNESDAY, 64% NEXT THURSDAY AND 81% NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS HEAT (ON THE ORDER OF 25 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL) WOULD BE EXCEPTIONALLY IMPACTFUL FOR THOSE ENGAGING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR EVENTS WHILE EXPECTING MORE-TYPICAL MARCH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 12/12Z. SKC THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD. SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 11/19Z THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING NLY/NWLY 10-13 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ELY LESS THAN 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS POSSIBLE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. NORTHERLY 20-FOOT WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. MINIMUM RHS 20-30 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 30
TO 30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TO
10-20 PERCENT AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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