929
FXUS65 KTWC 082140
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TUCSON POSSIBLY HITTING 100 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY,
THEN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE TUCSON METRO
POSSIBLY REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY. FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FURTHER BECOMING 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. TUCSON COULD SEE
100 DEGREE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NBM PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY 60 PERCENT AND 25 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASTERLY WINDS EACH DAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. THE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. NOT
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS BECAUSE THE TIMING
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS IN THE MORNING WHEN RH VALUES WILL BE
ABOVE 15 PERCENT. BY THE TIME RH VALUES DROP IN THE AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AS A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. MEAN ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS KEEP THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH, KEEPING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DRY. HOWEVER IT WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL COOL DOWN. WINDS BECOME
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS, ALONG
WITH LOW RH, AND DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 10/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-15K FT AGL MAINLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN FROM
TUCSON EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SKC THROUGH THE
PERIOD WEST OF TUCSON. SFC WINDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 5-10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS
BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KSAD
AND KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND HUMIDITIES
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
FEATURE, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED/BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, THE WARM CONDITIONS WE WILL EXPERIENCE TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND WILL BACK OFF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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