140
FXUS65 KTWC 010929
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
229 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY WINDS WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FAVORS KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SITTING
AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGH ELEVATION
AREAS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES, WITH GREATEST
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE. WITH THE LATE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER LATE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS (MAINLY TIED TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
AGAIN) ON SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW TO EXIT SHORTWAVE
STILL OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY AN ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY TO THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON A
DEEPENING THEN TEMPORARILY CLOSED EAST PACIFIC LOW, LIKELY
SETTING UP OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. AS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA SITS UPSTREAM OF THIS LOW TO START OUT,
HIGHS FOR THE AREA WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY. AS A JET
MAX BEGINS TO EXTEND OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS LOW BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND
INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN IMPROVING AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
OCCURRING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK LESS CLEAR. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH POSITIVELY
TILTED (A WEAKER ORIENTATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES) AND JUST
A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWER CHANCES SIT
AROUND 5-20 PERCENT (HIGHEST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS) ON TUESDAY
BUT THERE REMAINS TIME FOR THINGS TO SHIFT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE, RISING AGAIN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 02/12Z
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING 5K-8K FT CEILINGS AT
KDUG THROUGH 01/14Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8K-13K
FT AGL EAST OF KTUS-KOLS AFTER 01/18Z, WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THEN WEST- NORTHWEST 8-13 KTS AFTER
01/17Z. WINDS BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 02/05Z, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING KSAD-KDUG. STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY LIKELY AT KSAD WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 28 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAINLY ABOVE 15-20 PERCENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WEST OF TUCSON). AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS OPEN TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OF 18-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY, WITH BREEZY BUT NOT AS
STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE WINDIER SPOTS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. THE CROSSING SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN IS
ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY CONTAINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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