919
FXUS65 KTWC 261658
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN TRENDING WARMER INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS DEPICTED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND VIRGA MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES ALONG
WITH RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
LATEST THINKING IS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT JUST ENOUGH
LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE TO COMBINE WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE JUST HOW FAR WEST WILL WE SEE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY, AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE FROM THESE STORMS?
MOST OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS STORM ACTIVITY
FROM TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A FEW MEMBERS
DO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST OVER T.O. NATION AND CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A
SECONDARY LOWER THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (I.E., 15% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT). ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE (1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER PINAL,
WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES; 1.0-1.5 INCHES TUCSON EAST). SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA MAY ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 257 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2025/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. PWATS
RANGED FROM NEAR 1" ALONG AZ/NM BORDER TO 1.6" OVER WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. FOR TODAY, LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
KEEP A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA RESULTING IN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN 9K-12K FT AGL THRU MUCH OF VALID PD. ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL
26/17Z, THEN SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 27/04Z. EXPECT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY TSRA OUTFLOW. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
E-SE LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 40-60
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MIN RHS DROP TO
15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND 20-35 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DVS
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