826
FXUS65 KTWC 261934
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1234 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLACKENING OFF.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE HAS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. STRONGER RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS (MAINLY
CIRRUS LEVEL) MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH READINGS 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES HAS RESULTED
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20
20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY, THEY WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 MPH.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
THEN TO 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW THEN SWITCHES TO NEARLY ZONAL
ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGHS LOWER
A DEGREE OR TWO. STRONGER RIDGING OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS PUTS READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL THRU 27/01Z, THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND ELY/SELY AT
10-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-28 KTS THRU 27/02Z, DIMINISHING TO 12 KTS
OR LESS BETWEEN 27/02Z AND 27/20Z. SFC WIND BECOMING WLY/NWLY AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 27/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND THEN TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
DIMINISHING EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL LOWER INTO THE 18-28
PERCENT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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