530
FXUS65 KTWC 032016
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
116 PM MST SAT OCT 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH SOME WARMING
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR THE
MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS TO NEW MEXICO AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS INTERACTION HAS CREATED A PRESSURE GRADIENT,
RESULTING IN EASTERLY BREEZES IN THE LAST TWO DAYS. ENSEMBLE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS GRADIENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
HAS HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING AND PEAKING LATE MORNING.
REFS PROBABILITY OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ARE 85% AND
HIGHER FROM THE MARANA TO NOGALES LINE AND EAST. LOCALES ON THE
THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAINS HAVE 60-90% CHANCES FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 45 MPH. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THOSE AREAS STARTING AT 8AM AND ENDING AT 2 PM MST. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT AT LOWER INTENSITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE A BIT AND TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE EACH DAY. THIS WOBBLING EFFECT WILL SHIFT THE
PLACEMENT OF VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES MAY BE MORE OF CLOUD BUILD UPS,
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEW WEEK, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A
TROUGHING PATTERN ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THERE IS A LARGE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH. HIGHEST PROBABILITY (37% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) SOLUTION IS A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO CALIFORNIA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE OTHER 3 SOLUTIONS HAVE DIFFERENT
PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF THE TROUGH, SUCH ONE SOLUTION (22% OF
MEMBERS) HAS A CLOSE LOW BY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, POTENTIALLY
TAPPING INTO BETTER MOISTURE. MORE DETAILS WILL COME AS WE GET
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/00Z.
MOSTLY SKC WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TODAY'S AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SPEEDS OF 10-20
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. BY 04/12Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 04/21Z DOWN TO 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY
MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS 40-50 MPH. RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED AREAS CAN SEE STRONGER
GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 30-40
PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN HIGH
ELEVATION TERRAIN.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ503>509-
511>515.
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