277
FXUS65 KTWC 111655
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, DRYING OUT BY MIDWEEK. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, TODAY AND MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISOLATED 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED 25-35 MPH GUSTS. KEMX RADAR IS DETECTING 50-60
KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 2000-3000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE, WHICH
COMBINED WITH A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
ENHANCED SUSTAINED AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. OVERALL THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS LOW, BUT A
VERY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WITH THIS UPDATE THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
EXCEEDING 25 MPH LOOK MORE LIKELY IN COCHISE COUNTY WITH THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THOUGH GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTIES
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, ANY OF
WHICH MAY CARRY STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY, DEPENDING ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL HAS NOW TRANSITIONED TO A POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE. RACHEL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WELL W/NW OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING, BUT WILL STILL BRING US
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO
INCREASING AS THE REMNANT WIND FIELD PUSHES INTO OUR CWA.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FROM
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. HIGHEST GUSTS
HAVE BEEN IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. THESE GUSTS MAY TOP OUT CLOSE
TO 55 MPH IN THE WIND ADV AREA AND COULD APPROACH 60 MPH IN
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ADV TONIGHT.
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER KEEPING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS 20-50% FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY, CLEARING OUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A LATE WEEK EASTERLY WIND EVENT, WHICH
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD WIND ADV CRITERIA TO MUCH OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY EASTERLY WIND PRONE AREAS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 13/00Z. FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT
AGL FOR KOLS/KDUG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 9-12K FT AGL ELSEWHERE.
SFC WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF 45 KTS FOR
KTUS/KOLS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA REST OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45+ MPH ON SUNDAY FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS WELL
WITH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, LOWERING TO 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ501>506-514-
515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ507>513.
UPDATE...EDWARDS
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