513
FXUS65 KTWC 050750
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLACKENING OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WARMING TO 6 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
STARTING SUNDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IN LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT REMAIN EASTERLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTH IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, RESULTING IN SOME VIRGA AND/OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
POPS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER
LOW PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
DIGGING WEST COAST LOW WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA SUNDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-25 PERCENT)
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, THEY
ALL DEPICT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM BROADBRUSHES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT 10-30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/12Z.
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY, WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFT
05/18Z AND THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8K-11K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 20K FT AGL BY 05/23Z AND CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE VALID
PERIOD. ELY/SELY SFC WIND THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS OF
15-22 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS THRU 05/21Z, THEN DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 12 KTS BY 06/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY, WARMING TO 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLACKENING OFF. EXPECT
SUSTAINED 20-FT WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH IN
LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS. MIN RH LEVELS AT ALL ELEVATION
WILL BE IN THE 17-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION STARTING SUNDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE AT LEAST 5-10 PERCENT
NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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