931
FXUS65 KVEF 061154
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
454 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED IN DEATH VALLEY.
* OUR NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL (6-12 DEGREES) FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THE HEAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK,
WHERE HIGHS NEAR 110 AND LOWS IN THE 80S YIELD MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2000' IN THE PARK. ELSEWHERE, MINOR
TO MODERATE HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES RATHER COMPLICATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE FEATURES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE THREE FEATURES OF
NOTE ARE A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA, A CUTOFF LOW
OFF THE CA COAST, AND HURRICANE RACHEL. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
SATURDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER, PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE NBM AND RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE 20-50% CHANCES
OF 0.50"+ GENERALLY OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND POINTS EAST
(CHANCES INCREASING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT) DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. ODDS OF 1"+ ARE 10-30% OVER THE SAME AREA AND TIME.
DON'T WANT TO GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF OURSELVES, AS PREDICTING THE
INTERACTION OF THE 3 FEATURES AT THIS RANGE IS A TALL TASK AND
SMALL CHANGES WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM AND FORECAST TRENDS WILL CERTAINLY
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5-10KT ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, OCT 6 WED, OCT 7 THU, OCT 8 FRI, OCT 9
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 100(2024) 99(1978)* 98(2024)* 97(2024)*
BISHOP 94(2024) 94(1965)* 95(1996) 93(2015)
NEEDLES 111(2024) 107(2024) 107(2024) 104(1996)*
DAGGETT 105(2024) 102(2024) 101(1996)* 103(1980)
KINGMAN 100(2024) 99(2024) 98(1996) 98(1910)
DESERT ROCK 100(2024) 99(2024) 98(1996)* 97(1996)
DEATH VALLEY 110(2024)* 109(2024)* 112(1996)* 112(1996)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, OCT 6 WED, OCT 7 THU, OCT 8 FRI, OCT 9
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 74(2024)* 75(2024)* 76(2024)* 72(2024)*
BISHOP 52(2018) 57(1943) 51(1960) 61(2025)
NEEDLES 77(2023)* 76(1947)* 76(2024)* 76(1988)*
DAGGETT 75(2024) 72(2024)* 69(1980)* 69(1996)*
KINGMAN 67(1949)* 69(1947)* 67(1960)* 68(1926)*
DESERT ROCK 66(1990)* 65(1980)* 70(2024) 65(1991)*
DEATH VALLEY 83(1943)* 80(1943)* 85(1964)* 78(2024)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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