130
FXUS65 KVEF 200412
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING, BUT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE SOCAL COAST BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW.
I ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS
SOME ISOLATED (MAINLY VIRGA) SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTH
AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD, BUT I DID BUMP UP SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE 6-12Z PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS
HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EXIT TO THE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
GUSTING 20-30 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
NEVADA, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINING AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG OVERNIGHT BUT ISOLATED STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO HAVE KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING, PWATS BETWEEN 0.5-1.00 INCH WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE BEST DAY
FOR STORM ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS PRESENT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN OVER MOHAVE,
LINCOLN, AND CLARK COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY POCKETS OF RAIN AND
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES; ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY IT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH
RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD; FOCUSED ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM
SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON TUESDAY, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. STRONG TROUGH TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET TO
SPLIT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY, ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL STAY DRY. ON FRIDAY,
MODELS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EARLY WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22-25 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNSET, A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A LIGHT,
BUT NORTHWESTERLY TREND TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. GUSTS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET BEFORE TAKING OVER A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TREND IN KVGT, KBIH, AND KEED. REMAINING TAF
SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...GUILLET
LONG TERM....PIERCE
AVIATION...VARIAN
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