923
FXUS65 KVEF 182354
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
354 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONE MORE SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
* DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTY WILL SHIFT
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PT/5 PM MT FOR THESE AREAS- CONSIDERED EXPIRING
THE HEADLINE EARLY BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS PROVE TO BE ROBUST WITH
REPORTS OF BRIEF LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ON ROADWAYS IN MOHAVE
COUNTY. ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION ENDS, IT SHOULD BE DRY THIS
EVENING AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE PARADE OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS DIGS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
ONE FROM OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY BUT WITH A TAD LESS MOISTURE AND
FORCING (BUT SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AND OVERALL SET UP). WHILE THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOWER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS, MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE HREF IS SIGNALLY DECENT SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTER MIDDAY AND A WINTER
HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE TERRAIN ARE INCREASING. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
IMPACTS AT MOUNTAIN PASS, CA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS
LAST ROUND THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IMPACTS
AND AMOUNTS IS LOW AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION
SWEEPS THROUGH. ASPENDELL, CA SNOW AMOUNT IS BORDERLINE FOR
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS DRY AIR RUSHES DOWN THE OWENS VALLEY.
AND, WHILE AMOUNTS MAY BE ONLY A FEW INCHES IN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY, THE SNOW WOULD FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COMMUTE TIMES. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ALL
SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND TO GET ONE MORE LOOK AT THE
HI- RES MODELS TO MAKE DECISIONS.
WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WERE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH CONTINUE. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. THE
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THAT AREA UNTIL 10 PM PT WHICH LOOKS GOOD
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN
WINDS IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT (AS WELL AS REGIONALLY) TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN ON
THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. COMPARED TO THE ONGOING SITUATION, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER
40 MPH FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
IMPACTS WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE TERRAIN GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP
AND TIMING.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A QUIETER PATTERN. RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER, LIGHTER WINDS, AND A WARMING TREND. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS TRY TO ENTER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE RIDGE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
BACK TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 8KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOWARD SUNRISE, BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12-15KT AND A
RETURN OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST, REMAINING GUSTY, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND
28-30KT. CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOME SCT-BKN BETWEEN 12-
15KFT, WITH AN INFLUX OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED MID-
MORNING ONWARD AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO 5-7KFT. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL LOOKS TO BE THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FURTHER
REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, EXPECTED TO
END NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON AT LEAST AN
INTERMITTENT BASIS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OWENS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KBIH, TO SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8KFT,
LOWER IN PASSING SHOWERS, WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE FOR MOST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE/KDAG
WHERE ELEVATED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30KT COMMON, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF KDAG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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