130  
FXUS65 KVEF 200412  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
915 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER  
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION  
THIS EVENING, BUT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF  
THE SOCAL COAST BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW.  
I ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK, AND PERHAPS  
SOME ISOLATED (MAINLY VIRGA) SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST  
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST WINDOW OF  
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND MEASURABLE  
RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE LIFTS NORTH  
AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  
RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE  
DAY SUNDAY.  
 
THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD, BUT I DID BUMP UP SHOWER  
CHANCES FOR THE 6-12Z PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS  
HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD.  
 
-OUTLER-  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT WILL  
BEGIN TO DRIFT INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EXIT TO THE EAST OF  
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN  
GUSTING 20-30 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED  
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA, SOUTHERN  
NEVADA, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY EARLY SUNDAY. AS A  
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINING AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG OVERNIGHT BUT ISOLATED STORMS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SO HAVE KEPT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY  
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING, PWATS BETWEEN 0.5-1.00 INCH WILL HAVE  
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE BEST DAY  
FOR STORM ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND ADDITIONAL UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT IS PRESENT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. STORMS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN OVER MOHAVE,  
LINCOLN, AND CLARK COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY POCKETS OF RAIN AND  
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES; ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY. AS THE  
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY IT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH  
RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD; FOCUSED ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE  
COUNTIES. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
ONLY A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN  
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND  
WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM  
SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
ON TUESDAY, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS LOOK TO BE  
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK, LINCOLN AND MOHAVE  
COUNTIES. STRONG TROUGH TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET TO  
SPLIT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT BASIN  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY, ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF  
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL STAY DRY. ON FRIDAY,  
MODELS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EARLY WEEK  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 22-25 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNSET, A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND  
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A LIGHT,  
BUT NORTHWESTERLY TREND TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH WIDESPREAD  
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER  
VALLEY. GUSTS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET BEFORE TAKING OVER A  
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TREND IN KVGT, KBIH, AND KEED. REMAINING TAF  
SITES CAN EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GUILLET  
LONG TERM....PIERCE  
AVIATION...VARIAN  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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