243
FXUS65 KVEF 281000
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2021
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
15.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHERN UTAH IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALSO PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT AT 4AM PST THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD LATER
IN THE DAY. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON ALL OF THE LAKES.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON MONDAY AND PROVIDING THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MONDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, AN UPPER LOW, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TURNING OUR FLOW TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.
INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK, THOUGH
DETAILS REMAIN LIMITED AS SPLITTING AND PHASING SYSTEMS ARE ALWAYS
TRICKY TO FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A PATTERN THAT
WOULD SPLIT OFF A LOW IN THE PAC NW THAT WOULD THEN DIG DOWN THE
WEST COAST AND INTENSIFY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THOUGH. GIVEN THE GENERAL TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BLOSSOM SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING EAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STARTED INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN MOHAVE
COUNTY, SOUTHERN CLARK AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
MOHAVE COUNTY. NO MATTER HOW THINGS PAN OUT, NONE OF THE POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. QPF WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE, WITH AGAIN MOHAVE COUNTY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HAVING SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK WITH. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE WARM, SO SNOW WILL BE LIMITED...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. FINALLY, THE CENTER
OF THE LOW POSSIBLE MOVING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE. ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE NON-HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL OF
THIS SYSTEM AS ALMOST NO MEMBERS ARE SHOWING ANYTHING THAT WOULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE SHOULD BE EXITING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT, WHICH
WILL JUST CONTINUE OUR WARMING TRENDS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN US, BUT WHERE IT MOVES THROUGH AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE IS NOT CONSISTENT.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL TAKE ON MORE OF
A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO START GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE
DIRECTION TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL DOWN VALLEY WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST IMPACTFUL WINDS TODAY WILL BE AT TERMINALS WITHIN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP SOUTH TO KHII. GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS POSSIBLE AT KIFP WHILE KEED AND KHII MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS. ELSEWHERE, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 340 TO
090 DEGREES WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AROUND SUNSET. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...PIERCE
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