375
FXUS65 KVEF 221648
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
* SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-TO-LATE
WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD.
* DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
RETURNING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH, WITH GREATER SPEEDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (AFTERNOON HIGHS 6 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL). FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN PRIMARILY MODERATE HEAT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
NEWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THE
MONSOONAL HIGH WILL JOG SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
COLLOCATED WITH A 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY TUESDAY LATE-AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 IN THE LATE-AFTERNOON... SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN INYO, AND CLARK COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH OVER 1.00" OF PWAT EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE,
SOUTHERN INYO, AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. INSTABILITY DECREASES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LARGELY ISOLATE CONVECTION TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ASSIST WITH ASCENT. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN DCAPE BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 J/KG, MAKING DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT PUSHES THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE EASTWARD.
WITH INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCREASING, PEOPLE ARE HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PARTICIPATING IN ANY RECREATION THAT PRODUCES
SPARKS OR FLAMES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INCLUDING USING CHARCOAL
GRILLS, LIGHTING SAFE-AND-SANE FIREWORKS, DRIVING OVER VEGETATION,
AND/OR SHOOTING TARGET PRACTICE, AS THERE WILL BE A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREADS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING THESE SOUTHERLY- TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES, WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
160 TO 200 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF WINDS
GOING EAST OF 160 DEGREES, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10+ KNOTS AS
15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS BEGIN TO PICK UP. WINDS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
THEY SETTLE INTO A TYPICAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS AS TODAY, BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F FROM 20Z TO 03Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES
RETURN TO MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE KDAG AREA WHERE WESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON, ONLY TO RESUME IN THE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WILDFIRE
SMOKE LINGERING IN LINCOLN COUNTY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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