057
FXUS65 KVEF 062004
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
104 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE, THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
INDICATIONS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMING TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN VERY LOW (GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST), THOUGH WITH DCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF
4) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EACH DAY AS LONG AS THE HOT, DRY PATTERN CONTINUES.
FORTUNATELY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK AROUND,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING AN INFLUX OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.00 INCH COULD OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-15 AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY, AND GIVEN LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF A S OR SSW DIRECTION
UNDER 10 KTS, EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME NORMAL VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION. WATCHING A FEW MESOSCALE TO MICROSCALE WIND EDDIES
SETTING UP IN THE SE AND SW PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY, CURRENTLY THEY
DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT WIND SPEEDS OR DIRECTIONS AT KLAS, BUT WILL
WATCH THEM CLOSELY AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED IF THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT WINDS AT THE AIRPORT. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS SHOULD PICK UP AFTER 20Z, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED GUST BEFOREHAND OUT OF THE SE TO SW AS WINDS OSCILLATE
BEFORE SETTLING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18 AND 04Z. SIMILAR
DAILY WEATHER PATTEN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE
MORNING BECOMING S TO SSW MID AFTERNOON WITH SPORADIC GUSTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...DAILY WIND PATTERNS
SETTING UP AT ALL SITES TODAY WITH S WINDS INCREASING WITHIN THE
18-20Z TIMEFRAME AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND BIH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON IF
ANYTHING COULD IMPACT THE AIRPORT; ADDING VCSH DURING PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY FOR NOW, BUT WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY IF ANY CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP AND NEARS BIH. FOR KDAG, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS INCREASING IN THE LATE-AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS AND ELEVATED WINDS 10-15 KTS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MOORE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page