385
FXUS65 KVEF 252214
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
214 PM PST SAT JAN 25 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SAME SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. ANOTHER, MORE POTENT SYSTEM, IS EXPECTED TO
COME THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DELIVER A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS. TRANQUIL AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON HAS UNFOLDED UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. ON THIS FLOW, BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, PREFRONTAL AND
POSTFRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTERLY
PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY PARALLELING
I-15. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS;
HOWEVER, A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS -- UP TO 40 MPH --
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT (BARSTOW/RIDGECREST
AREA). THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAKER, NORTHERLY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED
INTO AND ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SUNDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A QUICK-SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY EITHER, WITH MOSTLY VIRGA
EXPECTED.
ENHANCED WINDS WILL INCREASE THE MIXED LAYER DEPTH AND PUSH TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR, WITH LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT REACHING THE 70+ DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE 2019.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER DISTURBANCE
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE MONDAY AND
STAY QUITE CALM THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. TEMPS WILL
DROP 4-6 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO PASSING COLD FRONT;
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER THE SOMEWHAT CALM START TO THE WEEK, A MORE POSITIVE-TILT,
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND
INTO THE SONORAN DESERT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS UNFOLDS, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY AND ENHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEEPENS. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY; HOWEVER, DETAILS REGARDING DEPTH OF THE WAVE
ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AND ARE ESPECIALLY EVIDENT VIA CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. THE DEPTH AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE LOW-
LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND THE POWER OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ALL THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST. BARRING A DRAMATIC SHIFT
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, HEADLINES REGARDING STRONG WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT FAVOR NORTHERLY WINDS. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND
SHIELD THE REGION FROM ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGING
INFLUENCE.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
TYPICAL LIGHT, DIURNAL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING; SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE BETWEEN
03-04Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03-05Z SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, POSSIBLE 25
KNOTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 6-9 KFT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH; AREAS ARE VIRGA ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF,
ALONG, AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS; DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM
THE SIERRA EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
MOST AIRPORTS; HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY LOWERED CEILINGS DUE TO VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF VIRGA INFLUENCE, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...BOOTHE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page