138
FXUS65 KVEF 132029
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
129 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
* NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS HERE. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1.60 INCHES OF
PWAT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, A LOT OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE
SURFACE. FORECAST HRRR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SLOWLY
SATURATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FOR TODAY, INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG PERSIST. AS A RESULT,
THE LARGEST THREATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ARE DRY LIGHTNING
(THE BULK OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND) AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SO
FAR TODAY OCCURRED OVER THE NNSS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 58 AND 65 MPH.
BEST CAPE FOR THE DAY EXISTS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE TIMELY SKY CLEARING IS ALLOWING BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG OF
CAPE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY, SO BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST OVER MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY THREAT
TO FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, RATHER THAN DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE,
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GO THROUGH SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THOUGH
WE'VE SEEN THESE TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS YEAR, WE HAVEN'T SEEN
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT, HEAT RISK IS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGH (LEVEL 3 OF
4), AS THIS HEAT WILL FEEL MORE OPPRESSIVE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-12
KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN (20-30%), BUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY ACTUALLY DEVELOP OR MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY IS STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS
STILL LOW PROBABILITY, BUT IMPACTS FROM OUTFLOW WINDS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. DID INCLUDE PROB30 IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH LATE EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EXCEED 100F BETWEEN
20Z-03Z, REACHING A HIGH OF 104 DEGREES AROUND 22Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES, EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY/KBIH WHERE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS TO 25-30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE/KDAG WHERE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AROUND 8-10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
RETURN TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MID-AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF
SEEING STORMS IMPACTING VARIOUS TAF SITES. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS, ALONG WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT, THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS TO AROUND 5-8KFT
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHTER AND SETTLE
TO TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page