267
FXUS65 KVEF 311703
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
A POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF
THESE WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS STILL EXPECTED. A 80-90KT WESTERLY JET IS
CURRENTLY AIMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THIS
MORNINGS 12Z VEF SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT STABLE LAYER NEAR 800MB
WHICH MAY KEEP THE WINDS A LITTLE SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DEEPER MIXING TAKES HOLD AND THE JET AXIS BEGINS
SAGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY, AS
WELL AS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. IT DOES
APPEAR ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING THE DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT MAY
BECOME QUITE SHARP AS IT RETREATS BACK TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS, AND
SURFACE WINDS MAY SHIFT DIRECTION AND EASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF I-15 AFTER 5PM OR SO. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH 45-55 MPH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD WINDS ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SIERRA/OWENS VALLEY, AND DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
INCLUDING THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN VEGAS METRO.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN INSTANCES OF BLOWING DUST, HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, CHOPPY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS BEING
BLOWN AWAY. ON A SMALLER SCALE, WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY, SPRING MOUNTAINS,
WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY, NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY TODAY. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER MAKING IT TO HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF
LONE PINE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, WE ARE LOOKING AT AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF RAINBOW
BOULEVARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY WE WILL
SEE THE WIND THREAT BECOME ISOLATED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ON THE TABLE DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAVE AROUND A 20 TO 50% CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT
SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE CREST OF THE SIERRA, WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. LOWER IN ELEVATION, AT ASPENDELL(8,400'), SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SHOULD THEY
SEE THE HIGHER END SCENARIO VERIFY.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. LOFTED
DUST AND SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE AT BEST. DURING THE EVENING, THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES A
BIT TRICKIER WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP. MANY HI-RES MODELS
EXPLICITLY RESOLVE A ROTOR FEATURE OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN
THE 01Z - 09Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH, BUT WHERE EXACTLY IT SETS UP AND FOR HOW LONG IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN SHORT, THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO SCENARIOS FOR
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EXPECTED OUTCOME IS ROTOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH EASTERLY BREEZES AT THE
TERMINAL AND NOTEWORTHY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE ~35 KNOT
WESTERLIES AT ~2000 FEET. HOWEVER, IF THE ROTOR DOES NOT DEVELOP OR
SETS UP EAST/WEST OF THE TERMINAL, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-45 KNOTS LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS, WHILE THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE MORE IN
THE 20-35 KNOT RANGE. WIND FORECASTS FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
OWENS VALLEY BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THIS EVENING WITH THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE SETUP. MANY HI-RES MODELS EXPLICITLY RESOLVE A ROTOR FEATURE
OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN THE 01Z - 09Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS MODERATE TO HIGH, BUT WHERE EXACTLY IT
SETS UP AND FOR HOW LONG IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. UNDERNEATH OR JUST
EAST OF THE ROTOR, EXPECT EASTERLY BREEZES AT THE SURFACE WITH ~35
KNOT WESTERLIES AT 2000 FEET, LEADING TO NOTABLE WIND SHEAR. THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT VGT AND LAS, BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
AT HND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, ROTOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOT AS CLEAR, BUT A
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND
07Z. DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY AND WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT,
SMOKE FROM THE SILVER FIRE NORTH OF BIH MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT THE AIRPORT. CLOUD-WISE, LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED AT BIH
AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO SPILL OVER THE SIERRA INTO THE OWENS
VALLEY. CIGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10KFT, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF
GETTING DOWN TO 6500 FEET. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT
OR ABOVE 15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...WOODS
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