337
FXUS65 KVEF 220402
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
802 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY, BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS WELL AS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT.
UPDATE
CLOUDS STREAMED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SITTING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH HAS NOT
SHIFTED INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TONIGHT OTHER THAN OFF AND ON SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA PEAKS. ELSEWHERE, PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE SIERRA CREST.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
157 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA THE ONLY NOTICABLE
IMPACT FROM THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA. THE EASTERN SIERRA WILL SEE A FEW MORE
IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A 20 TO 30%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY SEEING
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 9,000 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
WARM AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAYS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION BEING THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY
MORNING, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA. SHOWERS WILL SPILL OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE THE PROBABILITIES
FOR INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE INCREASED OVER
THE PAST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST, PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AS THE SIERRA ARE STILL SET TO INTERCEPT THE MAJORITY OF INCOMING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN, AND THE ARIZONA STRIP ARE LOOKING LIQUID PRECIPITATION
TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ABOVE 8,000 FEET IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS FALLING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, FALLING TO AROUND 7,000 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. WITH SUCH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION, SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE LIMITED. THE MOST LIKELY SNOW SCENARIO FOR ASPENDELL, CA (ELEV
8,400') IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 3.0 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH A HIGHER END
TOTAL OF 4 INCHES. HIGHER UP, IN THE SIERRA CREST, 4 TO 9 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA, ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO. FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO LAS VEGAS,
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING AT A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF LESS
THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN KYLE AND LEE CANYONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PEAKS. FOR THOSE OF YOU DOWN IN
THE VEGAS VALLEY LOOKING TO EXPERIENCE A WINTER WONDERLAND IN THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY, MAKE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY AND MAKE SURE TO CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU AS THERE
MAY BE CHAIN/TIRE RESTRICTIONS GOING UP THE MOUNTAIN.
IN ADDITION TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE WILL ALSO SEE
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST PART
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-ADVISORY WITH WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 40
MPH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ON TUESDAY. IN THE
OWENS VALLEY CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS PEAK BETWEEN 40 TO 50
PERCENT IN AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE COMMON (I.E., OWENS DRY
LAKEBED, LONE PINE, ETC.) ON TUESDAY. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS IN ACROSS HIGHWAY 395 IN THE
OWENS VALLEY ON TUESDAY PROBABILITIES FALL BELOW 20% AROUND BIG
PINE AND INDEPENDENCE, BUT REMAIN AROUND 30% BY THE OWENS DRY
LAKEBED.
BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS MORNING ROLLS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, TAKING THE SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH IT. A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE LONG
LIVED AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INSIDE SLIDER
TYPE SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 8 KNOTS
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTION TRENDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KTS AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED AT REGION TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE INCREASED WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KBIH. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA
20KTS AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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