744
FXUS65 KVEF 250340
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-15 TODAY, WITH
DIMINISHING ODDS AFTERWARDS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK IS EXTREME HEAT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
WORKWEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT, PEAKING ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MORNING
LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS MEANS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 100S TO MID 110S AND LOWS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING LAS VEGAS.
THESE TEMPERATURES YIELD WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. NUMEROUS DAILY HIGH RECORDS
AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY - SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE RIDGE
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE.
MEANWHILE, AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FUELED BY OUTFLOWS FROM LAST
NIGHT'S STORM ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SPUR
CONVECTION IN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500
TO 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT IN AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM THE INTRUDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, REDUCING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN
FURTHER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FAVORING SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS. FOR
TOMORROW, WINDS DEVELOP A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING,
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER
100 DEGREES UNTIL AROUND 03Z AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 100 DEGREES BY
19Z THROUGH 3Z TOMORROW EVENING. A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUD BUILD UPS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE SLIM.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS. FEW TO SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX MON, AUG 24 TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 112(2021) 111(2011) 109(2001)* 110(2017)*
BISHOP 102(2022)* 103(2020) 103(2019)* 103(2019)*
NEEDLES 118(2011) 119(1924) 122(1924) 120(1891)
DAGGETT 111(1985) 111(1985) 111(2011)* 111(2017)*
KINGMAN 107(2011) 106(2020) 106(2020)* 107(2017)*
DESERT ROCK 106(2011) 107(1985) 106(2001)* 107(2017)
DEATH VALLEY 124(1926) 123(2011) 122(2017)* 124(1924)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 87(2020) 88(2020)* 87(2011)* 86(2019)*
BISHOP 65(1988) 66(1988) 67(1970) 62(1970)
NEEDLES 92(2020) 93(2011) 93(2011) 94(2017)
DAGGETT 81(2003)* 82(1981)* 81(2011)* 82(2017)*
KINGMAN 78(2011) 79(1945)* 79(2020)* 75(2019)*
DESERT ROCK 78(1998)* 78(1985)* 78(1995)* 77(2011)*
DEATH VALLEY 98(1991)* 98(1991)* 95(2011)* 100(2019)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/CLIMATE...MELTZER/CO
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