243  
FXUS65 KVEF 281000  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
200 AM PST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS BOATING  
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE  
15.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE IN  
SOUTHERN UTAH IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH ITS  
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ALSO PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY.  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY  
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WIND  
ADVISORY WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT AT 4AM PST THIS MORNING. THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD LATER  
IN THE DAY. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON ALL OF THE LAKES.  
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES  
AVERAGING 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN  
ON MONDAY AND PROVIDING THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MONDAY NIGHT THE  
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, AN UPPER LOW, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST TURNING OUR FLOW TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
TUESDAY AS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.  
 
INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK, THOUGH  
DETAILS REMAIN LIMITED AS SPLITTING AND PHASING SYSTEMS ARE ALWAYS  
TRICKY TO FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A PATTERN THAT  
WOULD SPLIT OFF A LOW IN THE PAC NW THAT WOULD THEN DIG DOWN THE  
WEST COAST AND INTENSIFY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY  
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE  
CLOSED LOW AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THOUGH. GIVEN THE GENERAL TRACK OF  
THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW,  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BLOSSOM SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING EAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. STARTED INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN MOHAVE  
COUNTY, SOUTHERN CLARK AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.  
THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN  
MOHAVE COUNTY. NO MATTER HOW THINGS PAN OUT, NONE OF THE POTENTIAL  
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. QPF WILL BE LIMITED  
BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE, WITH AGAIN MOHAVE COUNTY HAVING THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR HAVING SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK WITH. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL ALSO BE WARM, SO SNOW WILL BE LIMITED...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. FINALLY, THE CENTER  
OF THE LOW POSSIBLE MOVING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE VERY  
IMPRESSIVE. ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE NON-HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL OF  
THIS SYSTEM AS ALMOST NO MEMBERS ARE SHOWING ANYTHING THAT WOULD  
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE SHOULD BE EXITING BY  
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT, WHICH  
WILL JUST CONTINUE OUR WARMING TRENDS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEATHER  
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH  
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN US, BUT WHERE IT MOVES THROUGH AND HOW  
STRONG IT WILL BE IS NOT CONSISTENT.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL TAKE ON MORE OF  
A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO START GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE  
DIRECTION TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WIND  
SPEEDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH TYPICAL DOWN VALLEY WINDS  
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN THIS MORNING  
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...MOST IMPACTFUL WINDS TODAY WILL BE AT TERMINALS WITHIN  
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP SOUTH TO KHII. GUSTS UP TO  
40 KTS POSSIBLE AT KIFP WHILE KEED AND KHII MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP  
TO 35 KTS. ELSEWHERE, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 340 TO  
090 DEGREES WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AROUND SUNSET. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT  
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
SHORT TERM...CZYZYK  
LONG TERM...WOLF  
AVIATION...PIERCE  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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