269  
FXUS65 KVEF 150528  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
1028 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS  
WARM AND DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
* INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED  
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH DETAILS SUCH AS COVERAGE  
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS WELL AS A  
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AVERAGE LAST 100 DEGREE  
DAY OF THE YEAR IN LAS VEGAS IS AROUND SEPTEMBER 18TH, AND BY  
WEDNESDAY NBM PROBABILITIES CLIMB TO 10% FOR REACHING 100. AS  
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE  
ABOVE NORMAL, HEAT RISK REMAINS PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE MINOR  
TERRITORY OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER REACHES OF DEATH VALLEY AND THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM MARIO HAS REGENERATED THIS MORNING IN  
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL GRADUALLY TREK NORTHWEST OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. AS ITS REMNANTS  
DRIFT NORTHWARD THEY WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW THANKS TO A  
WEAK LOW LURKING OFF THE SOCAL COAST, AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTH  
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK.  
OVERALL, FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT ON THIS  
GENERAL CONCEPT OF MOISTURE ADVANCEMENT INTO THE REGION. WHAT'S  
LESS CERTAIN IS IF THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FORCING FEATURES (JET  
STREAK, SHORTWAVES, BOUNDARIES, ETC) PRESENT TO ACT ON THIS  
MOISTURE. THIS MAKES DETAILS LIKE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND  
AMOUNTS LESS CERTAIN, BUT FOR NOW THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 20-50  
PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK PRETTY  
GOOD AND ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR GENERAL MESSAGING. STAY TUNED  
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WE BETTER HONE IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID  
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST  
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BY LATE  
MORNING, TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS  
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 10 KNOTS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES UNDER  
100 DEGREES.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY  
FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN  
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE  
OWENS VALLEY INCLUDING KBIH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20  
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AREAWIDE.  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...OUTLER  
AVIATION...MELTZER  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page
Main Text Page