632
FXUS65 KVEF 240806
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
106 AM PDT WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
LATE APRIL NORMALS, AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TONOPAH TO BISHOP AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE OBS SHOWED SPOTTY WIND GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N 128W WAS SLOWLY
DRAWING CLOSER, AND WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, AND THE WIND
ADVISORY STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN ESMERALDA COUNTY AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHERN INYO AND NORTH CENTRAL NYE, WHERE LIFTED INDICES
SHOULD FALL TO ABOUT -1 AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK
WILL PROVIDE MESOSCALE ASCENT TO PRIME THE PUMP. AS THE LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT, TYPICAL NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION WILL
BE INHIBITED, AND A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN STORMS MAY PERSIST. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY, BUT THE FOCUS WILL IMMEDIATELY SHIFT
TO ANOTHER LOW NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ITS EFFECTS ON
OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS
IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS IT DIGS SOUTH
FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MOJAVE DESERT THAT DAY, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND HEIGHTS CRASH, PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAUGHLIN AND KINGMAN. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 7000 FEET WHILE THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO ATTRACT ATTENTION DUE TO IT
BEING NEARLY MAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SERIOUS IMPACTS.
FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST DAY FOR MOST STATIONS DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF CRASHING HEIGHTS AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY LEAVING
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL KEEP SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. HIGHS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US,
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE OVERALL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
6 TO 12 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN PICKING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ONCE WIND GUSTS DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12
KNOTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KDAG WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH WIND GUSTS
INCREASING FROM AROUND 25 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THESE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP
AROUND 15Z TO 17Z, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS AT THE REMAINING LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS TO KLAS (HARRY
REID) WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICKING UP SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBIH WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. 20 TO 25
KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VICINITY
SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CIGS AT THE
TERMINAL. WINDS AT KBIH WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH PRECIPITATION, LOWER CIGS, AND 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS CONTINUING LATE INTO THE EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...GORELOW
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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