359
FXUS65 KVEF 232236
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 PM PDT THU MAR 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIERRA SNOWFALL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THANKS TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT
SINCE THIS MORNING. WE'RE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
NEAR THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA, WITH A FEW STRAY STORMS DRIFTING
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TAP FOR FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM
NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY BEFORE COMING
ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. INCREASING WINDS
WILL THE FIRST IMPACT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
SPREAD INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PEAK AREAWIDE. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
BEARS SOME SIMILARITY TO THIS PAST TUESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM, THOUGH
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND WITH A WEAKER MOISTURE TAP.
NONETHELESS, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA
AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, OUR PRIMARY TROUGH WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BUILDING BACK IN. HOWEVER, WE'LL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO FINISH OUT
THE MONTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY REACH OVER
10 KNOTS IN THE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN. INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA. TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, REMAINING OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND BECOME VARIABLE IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING KDAG,
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FEW TO SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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