603  
FXUS65 KVEF 081912  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
1215 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE, MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO  
RAMP UP THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. COOLER  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE PAST  
FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO WATCHING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV TO FORM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE  
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE NOT JUST ADDITIONAL  
MOISTURE BUT A FORCING MECHANISM AS WELL. HI-RES MODELS AND HREF  
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 40DBZ REFLECTIVITIES ALL SHOW AT LEAST  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN INYO COUNTY,  
SOUTHERN NEVADA, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND MOHAVE COUNTY...WITH  
LESSER CONVECTION IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY INTO WEST-CENTRAL  
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PWATS OF 1 INCH OR GREATER WILL BE IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE REGION PER ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND  
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. HREF PMMS FOR 3HR QPF FOR 1  
INCH HIGHLIGHTS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE AXIS OF  
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD SET UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO  
THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND  
OVERALL SET UP. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS  
AREA IN THE 1HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN  
WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR WITH ANYWHERE THROUGH CLARK, LINCOLN, AND  
MOHAVE COUNTIES POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW  
THE POTENTIAL MCV AND HOW THAT DEVELOPS- IF THERE IS AN INCREASE  
SIGNAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY  
MORNING, HIGHER FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE  
REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A FAVORABLE  
MONSOONAL FLOW KEEPING MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE  
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION CONTINUES TO DIRECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD  
INTO OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS PWATS  
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MOISTURE  
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY ALONG WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER'S 8-14 DAY FORECAST GRAPHICS SHOW PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING  
THROUGH THE 3RD WEEK OF AUGUST.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
 
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO  
SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST  
CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 21-00Z.  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM AND  
CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO AROUND 8K FEET. ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH STORMS BEING MORE  
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUD BASES OF 12-15 KFT MSL STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE  
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IMPACTING TAF SITES IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, DAG AND BIH. PREVAILING  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10-  
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TAF SITES COULD SEE GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM  
DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...NICKERSON  
AVIATION...GORELOW  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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