557
FXUS65 KVEF 230857
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1257 AM PST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, SNOW AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT CHRISTMAS TRAVEL.
* HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
AMOUNTING TO SEVERAL FEET OF NEW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A HEALTHY STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. SOME OF THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND WESTERN ARIZONA, THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE DESERTS MORE OF THE
VIRGA VARIETY. SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOWER LEVELS
MOISTEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. OVERALL THOUGH, THIS WILL JUST BE A
PRIMER FOR THE MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAINS ON TRACK WEDNESDAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF LAS
VEGAS, THEN SPREADING INTO MORE EASTERN AREAS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN PROMISING THANKS TO VERY STRONG NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES. THIS FORCING COULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN - GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHWEST ARIZONA,
LAKE MEAD, AND LAKE MOHAVE WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE
THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WINDS SURFACING SO HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES
FOR NOW.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES - STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER EVENT
FOR THE HIGH SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET WHERE SEVERAL FEET
OF SNOW ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKS END. SNOW LEVELS AT PRECIPITATION
ONSET ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 9000
FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN QUITE HIGH UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING CLOSER TO 7500 FEET. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE RECREATION AREAS IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THE SUMMIT OF
CHARLESTON PEAK AT NEAR 12K FEET WILL CERTAINTY PICK UP 2-3 FEET
OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY UNDER MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS, BUT SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL FALLS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER ADVISORIES UNTIL
SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
8-10KT, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZING. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS DROPPING
TO AROUND 10KFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME VIRGA MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE GROUND THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, FOLLOWING TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY. ONE EXCEPTION IS
THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, INCLUDING BIH, WHERE ELEVATED AND GUSTY
UP-VALLEY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING
TO 30-35KT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE BOTH IFP AND EED WILL SEE UP-VALLEY WINDS AROUND 10-
12KT FROM TUESDAY LATE MORNING ONWARD. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 10KFT LATE IN
THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...OUTLER
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