101
FXUS65 KVEF 131142
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
442 AM PDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-15.
* AFTER A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER, THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE REGION THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT INLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ENERGY WILL DIG THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH WILL DEEPEN THE LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WITH STRONG
FORCING, COLD CORE PROCESSES, AND WEAK INCREASES IN MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE LOW- MUCH OF THE AREA HAS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR SEEING
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF
THE I-15. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS, THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, MODEST INSTABILITY, AND HIGHEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN CENTRAL NYE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY, AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE SPC ADDED A RISK FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SET UP. EVEN
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS TODAY GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS. AS THE LOW WINDS UP AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH, STRONG
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO LINGER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN IMPACTFUL WEATHER
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN
AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. IT CAN BE SAID- PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING. ALSO,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 50% FOR IMPACTFUL
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTH ON FRIDAY, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND,
ENDING ANY LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY -
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY - SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH GUST SPEEDS PICKING BACK UP TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 03Z. WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT, GUSTY
WINDS FROM THEIR DIRECTION, AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT, GUSTY WINDS FROM THEIR
DIRECTION, AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. KBIH
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. KDAG WILL GUST FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...SOULAT
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