128
FXUS65 KVEF 220650
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1145 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WARMING BACK UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
* POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MOHAVE COUNTY AND CRV LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT BASIN AND EVEN AROUND THE LAS VEGAS METRO AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, RESPONSIBLE FOR
ALL THE CONVECTION, OVER INYO COUNTY SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS A BIT
STRONGER THAN INITIALLY FORECASTED WHILE THE OVERALL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY TRACKED OVER A 100 MILES SOUTH AND EAST THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LAST NIGHT. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NOW EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF NW ARIZONA. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST LAS ACARS SOUNDING STILL SHOWS UPWARDS OF
700 J/KG OF MUCAPE, 1100 J/KG DCAPE, AND STEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS 50+ MPH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LOCALLY IS
OVER 50 KT AS A JET STREAK REMAINS OVERHEAD AND STORM MOTION IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR VECTOR RESULTING IN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BEEN THE FOCAL POINT FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATE
THIS EVENING DUE STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP MOUNTAINS, AND
OTHER SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN. TRAINING STORMS CAN BE SEEN OVER
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, WHILE THE
LOWER ELEVATION REMAIN QUITE A BIT DRIER. HOWEVER, STRONG OUTFLOW
FROM THE WEST, NORTH, AND EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH THROUGHOUT LAS VEGAS METRO AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE STRONGER WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST 2-3AM UNTIL STORMS BEGIN TO WANE AND SHIFT NORTH AND EAST.
HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHTER RAIN PERSISTING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AS
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY EXPECT A CLEARING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY BUT
OVERALL THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
SHOULD DRY OUT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF COOLING IN
COMPARISON TO TODAYS HIGHS.
GENERALLY, DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBTLE RIDGING SETS UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS UPCOMING PATTERN, RESULTING IN
A WARMING TREND EACH DAY MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AGAIN
IN DESERT VALLEYS. OVERALL HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK REMAINS LOW,
WITH SPORADIC AREAS OF MODERATE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT TOWARDS A MODEST UPTICK IN MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA, THE CRV, AND MOHAVE COUNTY.
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND A LINGERING
TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP OVER WEST TEXAS AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST,
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD AND AN INCREASE
IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS
LOCALLY, PARTICULARLY FOR MOHAVE COUNTY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE SHIFTED TO TO THE NORTH OF THE VALLEY
LEADING STRONG GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. MORE DISTANT STORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST WILL OFFER BRIEF FROM THOSE RESPECTIVE
DIRECTIONS BUT OVERALL WINDS LOOK TO COME FROM DUE NORTH.
INTO THE LATE NIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WITH
GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TURN SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
MOSTLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH CAUSING GUSTY NORTHERLY DOWNDRAFT WINDS
THROUGH THE VALLEY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT, LINGERING ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO EASE INTO THE LATE NIGHT AS THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
ARRIVING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING THAT EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MOORE
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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