339
FXUS65 KVEF 271121
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
421 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
ZONAL FLOW MAINTAINS MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THIS PATTERN WILL PROMPT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR LAS VEGAS, THE
LOW 80S IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
IN OWENS VALLEY.
A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM VANCE TRAVELS UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND PWATS RISE TO UPWARDS OF 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY FAVOR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH POPS
IN THE 20 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER, MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, THE RAIN SHADOW WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
WILL REACH FAR FURTHER INLAND IF THE FLOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THE PRESENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALSO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BOOST PRECIPITATION TOTALS. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES,
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP THEREAFTER. GUSTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SCT HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN MOST
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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