626
FXUS65 KVEF 060911
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
215 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY.
* OUR NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR EXCEPT FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, IT WILL
PULL UP SOME ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THAT IS POOLED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INTO MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH, THIS IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR APRIL AS THESE NUMBERS
ARE ABOUT 200-250% OF NORMAL. MOST OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY, THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
/25-50%/ OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK, A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
CUTOFF LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
MINOR WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF
LOW SCENARIO IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW CAN POSITION ITSELF NEAR SAN DIEGO AND/OR MOVE
OVERHEAD. LATEST NBM PAINTS A SMATTERING OF 20-50% POPS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TRACK SHOWN IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z
ORIGINATING FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z WHEN SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR WITH CONTINUED IMRPVOEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES AND A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT
IN THE LATE-MORNING TO EARLY-AFTERNOON FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY, KDAG WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AFTER SUNSET AROUND 25 KTS. SCT-BKN AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/WOODS
AVIATION...SOULAT/CO
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page