028
FXUS65 KVEF 071114
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
414 AM PDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA TODAY.
* SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY TODAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN OTHER AREAS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY AND MORE NOTICEABLY SATURDAY, EASING
THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO 24 AND 48 HOURS AGO, WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
STREAMING OVER THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED SPOTTY GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CLARK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE BOTH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVERALL THAN 24 HOURS AGO. TODAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
STRETCH FOR MOST STATIONS, SO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE LAKE
MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA, LOOKS GOOD. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS
SHOULD GUST 30 TO 35 MPH IN LINCOLN COUNTY AGAIN TODAY, SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING THERE LOOKS GOOD. THERE WAS MUCH LESS SMOKE AROUND OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. A REVIEW OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWED THAT THE GOLD FIRE DID NOT EJECT A LARGE PLUME YESTERDAY AS
EXPECTED, WHICH THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON, AS IT
FORECASTS MUCH LESS SMOKE IN OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. THIS MUST BE
TAKEN WITH SOME CAUTION, AS SMOKE FORECASTING IS INHERENTLY MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN MANY OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS 500 MB HEIGHT AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. ON FRIDAY, AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WIND
GUSTS IN LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD DECREASE BY ABOUT 3-5 MPH, SUGGESTING
NO NEED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING, AND THE OVERALL WIND
TRAJECTORY FOR OUR REGION SHOULD VEER TO MORE WESTERLY, LIMITING
SMOKE PRIMARILY TO SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. HEIGHTS
SHOULD ALSO FALL SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COME DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, OUR AREA SHOULD BE UNDER
(RELATIVELY) WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND DEPTH, SO NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH (OR WHETHER) IT WILL CHANGE OUR WEATHER.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEPING
WESTWARD INTO MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT IT ALSO KEEPS DELAYING THE ONSET,
SO SKEPTICISM REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z BEFORE ENDING. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. LOFTED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
KEEP SKIES HAZY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED, THOUGH SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE DAGGETT-TO-LAS VEGAS CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT ARE EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 18Z AND 05Z,
PEAKING NEAR 109F AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TODAY,
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AT MOST
TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET, EXCEPT KDAG, WHERE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOFTED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. NO SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE ANTICIPATED AT AREA TAF SITES,
THOUGH SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
DAGGETT-TO-LAS VEGAS CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, ONLY A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
WITH BASES AOA 20KFT ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NEVADA FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 461 PM FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM TODAY. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING AND RECREATION WITH
SPARKS ARE NOT RECOMMENDED. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY
AND MORE NOTICEABLY ON SATURDAY, EASING THE THREAT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...MORGAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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