312
FXUS65 KVEF 300846
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
146 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST AND AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR SECTIONS OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT. TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HEAT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A LOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL HELP DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 5
AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
CLOUD COVER PREVENTS OVERNIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING. BOTH DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
THREATENED EACH DAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL BROKEN DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
MODERATE (LEVEL 2) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT, A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT IS DANGEROUS TO THOSE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS INCLUDING LAS VEGAS, PAHRUMP, LAKE
MEAD, DEATH VALLEY, AND BARSTOW TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THAT VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ALLOWING IT TO PICK UP SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEFORE PUSHING INLAND
THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN MEXICO COAST BEFORE WEAKENING BACK INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
IN GENERAL, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT MID-AND-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE BAJA
LOW AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THE COMBINED MOISTURE SURGE FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT
IN PWATS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO 250-300
PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SLIGHT-TO-MODERATE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CONVECTIVE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE, AS REMNANT MID-
TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN COULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THICK CLOUD COVER, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS
MOISTURE WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 100S FOR DESERT
VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S (BELOW-NORMAL).
WHAT ORIGINALLY WAS THOUGHT TO BE A DEEP DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAS TRENDED SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER CONSENSUS NOW THAT A
TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE WEST COAST BEFORE CLOSING OFF IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INLAND WITH A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY AS THE BAJA LOW. THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE REGION WHILE ALSO
TAPPING INTO THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM ITS PREDECESSOR. AS SUCH,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES NOW LINGER LATER INTO
THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHT POPS PERSISTING AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. THIS
CHANGE HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED WEAKER TREND IN FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THE EASE IN FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE DROP IN HEIGHTS THAT WAS ANTICIPATED
FROM THE DEEP DIGGING TROUGH WILL NO LONGER OCCUR, SO EXPECT ONLY A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPERATURES EARLY-TO-MID WEEK FROM THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK. A PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS SUSTAINED SPEEDS BELOW 8 KNOTS, A FEW THERMALLY DRIVEN
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ANY BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES FROM ROUGHLY 21Z TO 03Z, WITH A MAXIMUM VALUE
OF 103 DEGREES AROUND 23Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONDITIONS AT THE LAS
VEGAS AREA TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING MAY BE A FEW KNOTS HIGHER
AT KHND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 12KFT AGL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX FRI, MAY 30 SAT, MAY 31
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 106(2002)* 104(2024)*
BISHOP 100(1986)* 99(1950)*
NEEDLES 114(1910) 116(1910)
DAGGETT 106(1997) 106(2001)*
KINGMAN 102(1984) 100(1938)*
DESERT ROCK 102(2002)* 100(2012)*
DEATH VALLEY 122(2000) 118(2002)*
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN FRI, MAY 30 SAT, MAY 31
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 83(2003) 82(1997)*
BISHOP 60(2001) 60(2013)*
NEEDLES 90(1984) 84(2004)
DAGGETT 83(1984) 78(1972)
KINGMAN 76(1984) 71(1997)*
DESERT ROCK 79(2003) 77(1997)
DEATH VALLEY 94(2003) 91(2001)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PLANZ
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