887
FXUS65 KVEF 010640
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1140 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE KARINA MAY GET PULLED INTO THIS FLOW
PATTERN, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD STAY ALOFT, RESULTING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AT 850 MB WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON MOST DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS
A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE
GRAVITATING TOWARDS TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. ONE SOLUTION TAKES THE
SYSTEM WEST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE
OTHER SOLUTION TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOULD
THIS SOLUTION PREVAIL, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM IN THIS SOLUTION, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LASTING INTO
MONDAY SHOULD IT OCCUR. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS MOST
MEMBERS INDICATING THE WESTERLY TRACK, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE HAS A
WIDER RANGE OF OUTCOMES, WITH MEMBERS SPLIT BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS.
AGAIN, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER, DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, FINALLY WEAKENING LATE
TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, STRONGEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS 20-
30 KNOTS. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 12KFT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 100F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONVECTION HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHEASTERLY MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE NOTABLY LESS THAN
MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-30 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET IN MOST LOCATIONS. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 10KFT IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH CLEAR SKIES TO
THE WEST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
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