777
FXUS65 KVEF 121106
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
406 AM PDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST, DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS, AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEEK.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
* AFTER A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER, THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
ACROSS THE REGION, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, INTERMITTENT GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
CONTINUED, MAINLY IN THE TERRAIN. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE IN INYO COUNTY THROUGH THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT INTO CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTY, ESPECIALLY AS INCREASING MID-
LEVEL WINDS INTERACT WITH TERRAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING
TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE, BETTER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO 35-
45 MPH TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE. WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES 50%+ FOR GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ARE NOTED ON ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOHAVE COUNTY AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP
THERE. DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES, AND IN GENERAL EXPECT WIND
IMPACTS SUCH DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND
LOFTED LIGHT DEBRIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND BY MONDAY
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AND
LESS IMPACTFUL THAN TODAY. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE LOW, WITH LIGHTNING CONTINUING AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND SNOW RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE AS QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE (80% PROBABILITY) THAT ASPENDELL,
CA WILL SEE 4 INCH+ OF NEW SNOW, BUT THE CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 8 INCHES IS 10%. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT BEST CAPTURES THE IMPACTS. FURTHER EAST,
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TODAY AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE SIERRA. THE BEST CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
TERRAIN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE MEAGER LEFTOVER
MOISTURE, AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS AFTERNOON,
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW/IF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN LINCOLN COUNTY- WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST CLARK
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS THERE COULD CONTINUE LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE INTERESTING AS A REINFORCING PIECE OF
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH WILL REINVIGORATE THE
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE RATHER LOW, BUT WITH INCREASED FORCING WITH THE PIECE OF
VORTICITY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AS WELL AS COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-15. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH ACTIVITY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WELL AS IMPACTS SUCH AS BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL, SMALL
HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLAT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN. AFTER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AND
CLIMB BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK THOUGH-
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACNW MAY ATTEMPT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY A SUBTLE COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
OR, IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, BRING SHARPER COOLING
AND GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW, FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
MODEST COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST, STRONGEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY (80%). EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE LAS VEGAS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN AT THE TERMINAL ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20%. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (5%). FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
~8KFT CIGS IS POSSIBLE SHOULD A SHOWER MOVE OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WANE AFTER SUNSET AND SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-
35 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH BEST ODDS (10-50%) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
15 CORRIDOR. ERRATIC WINDS AND CIGS DOWN TO ~6KFT POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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