721
FXUS65 KVEF 161150
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
350 AM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, RETURNING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION.
* ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL - ALLOWING THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE TO RAIN-SHADOW
MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THAT SAID, WE'RE STILL ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION TO RETURN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CHANCES TO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. PRE-FRONTAL SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WE EXPERIENCED WITH OUR LAST SYSTEM, RANGING FROM 6500 TO 7500
FEET. POST-FRONTAL SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET,
ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ABOVE 9500 FEET, BETWEEN 2
AND 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET. AS SUCH, ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, INYO
MOUNTAINS, WHITE MOUNTAINS, SPRING MOUNTAINS, AND SHEEP RANGE. DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL-IMPACTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG STATE
ROUTE 266 THROUGH LIDA SUMMIT, ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ESMERALDA / CENTRAL NYE ABOVE 6000 FEET AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL.
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE-WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST TRACK CAN HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST,
RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, CEILINGS
AROUND 050 SHOULD DEVELOP, ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING
LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE WORST WEATHER TODAY
IS EXPECTED IN AN ARC FROM THE OWENS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY, WHERE LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY, SETTLING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...MORGAN
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