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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1241 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
..PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGER WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
-OTHER NWS PARTNERS AND EMPLOYEES
FROM: STANLEY CZYZYK, SCIENCE AND OPERATIONS OFFICER
OFFICE: WFO LAS VEGAS, NV
SUBJECT: AFD FORMAT CHANGE AT WFO LAS VEGAS, NV
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS, NEVADA WILL BE
CHANGING THE FORMAT OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)
BEGINNING ON JUNE 15, 2025. THE NEW FORMAT WILL CONSIST OF
ONE TO THREE KEY MESSAGES FOLLOWED BY MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION, IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE KEY MESSAGES. EACH KEY MESSAGE WILL HAVE A
PARAGRAPH ASSOCIATED WITH MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. AN
EXAMPLE OF THE NEW AND OLD FORMATS ARE LISTED BELOW.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1245 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING MODERATE HEATRISK TO MOST LOCATIONS.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOONS, BUT
IMPACTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY FLUCTUATE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT PATTERN. AT
THEIR LOWEST POINT, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THESE VALUES WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, WITH
A MIX OF MODERATE AND MINOR IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIND IMPACTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME, WITH BEST ODDS
(~40%) ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES OF
40+ MPH GUSTS ARE BELOW 30%. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM`S TRACK/INTENSITY REMAINS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
455 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL NUDGE
OUR SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN REGIONAL HEIGHTS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY SUBTLE COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, PERHAPS MINIMIZED SLIGHTLY THANKS TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING. NONETHELESS, ANTICIPATE HIGHS TODAY
BEING 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL
DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS BOTH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY`S SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL GIVE OUR AREA 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DAM PLUS DEEP MIXING DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING
IN DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS SHOWS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST, WHICH WOULD
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT, WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW, WHICH
WOULD MEAN LESS WIND AND LESS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THE FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOWER LOW SINCE IT IS FEATURED IN A MAJORITY
OF THE SOLUTIONS, BUT THE DEEPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND.
IF YOU OR YOUR ORGANIZATION HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE
CHANGES, PLEASE CONTACT:
OFFICE CONTACT: DAN BERC, WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
ADDRESS: 7851 S. DEAN MARTIN DRIVE, LAS VEGAS, NV 89139
PHONE: 702-263-9753
E-MAIL: DANIEL.BERC@NOAA.GOV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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