863
FGUS76 KMFR 212229
ESFMFR
CAC093-ORC011-015-033-230000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN COOS, CURRY, AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES IN
OREGON, AND SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY 8 INCHES IN
THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND ALSO OTHER FAVORED AREAS
OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN.
THE WARM RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS
WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WILL CAUSE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN TO COMBINE
WITH SNOWMELT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER RISES.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
BPN
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