504
FNUS55 KPSR 172104
FWFPSR
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
204 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2026
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING DUE
TO STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK WIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (STRONGEST
WINDS AND LOWEST RH) LIKELY BETWEEN 1500-2000MST. WIND GUSTS IN
THE WARNED AREA WILL PEAK AROUND 25-35 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL
MINIMIZE AROUND 10-15%. WHILE RH INCREASES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
AFTER 2000MST THE ELEVATED BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, WHICH MAY MAKE CONTROLLING ANY NEW/EXISTING FIRES
CHALLENGING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL
DISTRICTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CA WITH WESTERLY SUNDOWNER WINDS IN IMPERIAL COUNTY UP TO 40-50
MPH AND NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 35-50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY DRY AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT THAT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS RIVERSIDE COUNTY, EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO 15-20% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS.
LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT THIS GRADIENT WIND SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEAKER
THAN TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH.
NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.
AZZ132-180915-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS/NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/GREATER PHOENIX
AREA/SOUTHWEST DESERTS/SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY/
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
PHOENIX BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ-
204 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................58-68.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................42-62 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................81-88.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................10-17 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......9700 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........EXCELLENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................55-65.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................21-47 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................18 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................86-92.
* 24 HR TREND..................4 DEGREES WARMER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................8-13 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR PHOENIX.......9700 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR PHOENIX......WEST 5 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR PHOENIX..........GOOD.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 59-69. HIGHS 90-95. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN
15 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 60-70. HIGHS 92-97. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 62-72. HIGHS 93-98. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 63-73. HIGHS 93-99.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 63-73. HIGHS 94-100.
AZZ131-CAZ231-180915-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
204 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2026 /204 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026/
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY BLOWING DUST
IN THE EVENING.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................59-64.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................39-52 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................8 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE
MORNING.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................84-89.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................8-12 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........9700 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............GOOD.
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................55-61.
* 24 HR TREND..................3 DEGREES COOLER.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................23-51 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................10 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................89-94.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES WARMER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................7-12 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
* MIXING HEIGHT FOR YUMA..........10400 FT AGL.
* TRANSPORT WIND FOR YUMA.........SOUTH 5 KNOTS.
* DISPERSION FOR YUMA.............FAIR.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 58-65. HIGHS 93-98. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN
15 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 60-67. HIGHS 94-99. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 62-67. HIGHS 95-100. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 63-68. HIGHS 95-100.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 63-68. HIGHS 95-100.
AZZ133-180915-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN TONTO NF/WEST SAN CARLOS BIA/SOUTH PORTION FT APACHE BIA/
CAZ-
204 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2026
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................48-62.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................41-60 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................9 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................70-84.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................16-24 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................8 PCT WETTER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................45-60.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................33-53 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................9 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING MOSTLY DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY IN THE MORNING BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................75-90.
* 24 HR TREND..................5 DEGREES WARMER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................11-17 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 48-64. HIGHS 77-91. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN
15 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 48-65. HIGHS 79-94. WEST WINDS
5 TO 15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN
15 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 49-66. HIGHS 80-94. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 51-67. HIGHS 81-96.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 52-68. HIGHS 83-96.
CAZ232-180915-
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
204 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR. PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................59-67.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................28-54 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE
MORNING.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................79-87.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................7-12 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................9 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................59-67.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................13-39 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................19 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................85-93.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 DEGREES WARMER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................6-11 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 62-70. HIGHS 89-97. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 63-71. HIGHS 91-99. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 64-71. HIGHS 91-100. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 64-72. HIGHS 90-100.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 65-72. HIGHS 91-100.
CAZ230-180915-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
204 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................CLEAR. PATCHY BLOWING DUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................47-63.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................28-57 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................68-81.
* 24 HR TREND..................7 DEGREES COOLER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................8-12 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................11 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY CLEAR.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.................49-60.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE CHANGE.
* MAX HUMIDITY....................14-18 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................25 PCT DRIER.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............WEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.....................MOSTLY SUNNY.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.................74-87.
* 24 HR TREND..................6 DEGREES WARMER.
* MIN HUMIDITY....................7-11 PCT.
* 24 HR TREND..................LITTLE RH CHANGE.
* WINDS - 20 FOOT...SLOPE/VALLEY..NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...10000 FT MSL............EAST 5 TO 15 MPH.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP................0 PERCENT.
* CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE OF THUNDER...............0 PERCENT.
EXTENDED
WEDNESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 53-66. HIGHS 78-92. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 56-67. HIGHS 82-94. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 57-67. HIGHS 82-94. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 56-68. HIGHS 81-94.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS 56-68. HIGHS 82-94.
8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
MONDAY MAY 25TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 27TH:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.
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