783
FNUS75 KREV 180515
FWSREV
SPOT FORECAST FOR LADYBUG MACHINE PILES...USFS TAHOE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
915 PM PST SAT JAN 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO.
DISCUSSION
* WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH SHALLOW
MIXING HEIGHTS LEADING TO POOR SMOKE DISPERSION.
* ABOVE-NORMAL WARMING PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, RESULTING
IN NOTICEABLY MILDER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
* ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE, THERE REMAINS A 10-15%
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT THE BURN SITE LATE NEXT WEEK;
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM
IS LOW.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........30 AT IGNITION...MAX 51-53.
RH..................48% AT IGNITION...MIN 38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH.
CHC WETTING RAIN....0%.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0%.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL THEN 600-800 FT AGL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
VENTILATION.........POOR.
TIME (PST) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM
SKY (%).........73 67 56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0
TEMP............30 38 48
RH..............48 43 37
20 FT WIND......SW 7G10 SW 7G10 SW 6G10
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.1 0.3 0.7
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 5 W 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 2 4
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27-29.
RH..................MAX 60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 3-7 MPH EARLY SHIFTING TO EAST
3-7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
CHC WETTING RAIN....0%.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0%.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
VENTILATION.........POOR.
TIME (PST) 4 PM 7 PM 10 PM 1 AM
SKY (%).........47 35 10 9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 36 32 30
RH..............37 56 58 60
20 FT WIND......W 6G10 W 6G10 W 6G10 E 5
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 0
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 46-48.
RH..................MIN 40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 3-7 MPH BECOMING EAST 7-10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHC WETTING RAIN....0%.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0%.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL THEN 700-900 FT AGL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........POOR.
TIME (PST) 4 AM 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM
SKY (%).........8 7 5 6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............29 28 36 46
RH..............61 64 57 39
20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5G10 E 7G10 E 9G13
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8
TRANSPORT WIND..E 5 E 5 E 10 E 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 7
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECASTER...JOHNSTON
REQUESTED BY...KAMERON CONLON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600046.3/REV
.DELDT 01/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KAMERON.CONLON@USDA.GOV
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