678
FNUS76 KEKA 291938
FWSEKA
SPOT FORECAST FOR 26-FRENCH RANCH VMP...CAL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1238 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS REGARDING THIS FORECAST, PLEASE
CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (707) 443-6484
PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND DIRECTLY IF YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS IN AN EMAIL.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS BEHIND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP THE REGION CLEAR AND DRY TODAY, BUT THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL FOCUS CENTERS ON TUESDAY'S RAPIDLY ACCELERATING WIND
PROFILE AND CONTAINMENT RISKS.
TUESDAY TIMELINE & WIND GRADIENT:
* 9:00 AM – NOON: HIGH-RESOLUTION HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.
* 1:00 PM – AFTERNOON: CONDITIONS DEGRADE RAPIDLY AS THE
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 25 MPH RAMPS UP SHARPLY TO 80% BY 2:00
PM, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS MOST LIKELY TRACKING IN THE
25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
SITE-SPECIFIC WEATHER & TOPOGRAPHY IMPACTS:
* MICRO-SCALE WIND NINJA DATA: HIGH-RESOLUTION WINDNINJA
SIMULATIONS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WINDS PEAKING AT
18 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
* TERRAIN SHELTERING LIMITATIONS: WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ASPECT OF THIS 1,345-FOOT SITE WILL PHYSICALLY SHIELD THE
15-ACRE FOOTPRINT FROM THE TRUE AMBIENT SYNOPTIC NORTHERLY
MOMENTUM EARLY IN THE DAY, THE AFTERNOON TIMELINE PRESENTS AN
ESCALATING RISK. THE COMBINATION OF AN 80% SYNOPTIC >25MPH GUST
PROBABILITY, 18 MPH FINE-SCALE SUSTAINED WINDS, AND 25 TO 30 MPH
MEAN PEAK GUST POTENTIAL INDICATES THAT THE AMBIENT RIDGE-LEVEL
MOMENTUM IS LIKELY TO OVERPOWER THE TERRAIN SHIELD AND MIX DOWN
NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR GREATER TO THE SURFACE AFTER 1:00
PM.
* MICRO-CLIMATE CONCERNS: BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL LIFT THE
MIXING HEIGHT TO A PEAK OF AROUND 2,100 FEET AGL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH.RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING RAPIDLY TO 36%.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
TIME (PDT) 11 PM 2 AM 5 AM
SKY (%).........22 18 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
TEMP............56 52 50
RH..............83 89 90
20 FT WIND......N 6G18 N 5G15 N 5G15
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..N 15 N 15 N 18
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH
INCREASING TO 26 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 22 MPH.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18 18 11 11 11 8 8 8 1 1 1 8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M M M
TEMP............50 49 53 57 64 68 72 74 75 74 73 74
RH..............91 89 84 71 58 48 40 37 36 39 42 44
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 9 9 9 12 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 18 18 18 24 24 24 26 26 26 26
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 18 18 18 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH
UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 14 TO 22 MPH.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........8 8 19 19 19 24 24 24 18 18 18 31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M M M
TEMP............71 68 65 59 57 55 54 53 52 50 50 50
RH..............47 52 60 67 74 80 83 85 86 86 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.26 26 24 24 24 21 21 21 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 22 22 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
FORECASTER...HEINLEIN
REQUESTED BY...ROSS DOLLARHIDE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2616453.0/EKA
.DELDT 06/29/26
.EMAIL ROSS.DOLLARHIDE@FIRE.CA.GOV
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