505
FNUS76 KLOX 202313
FWSLOX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MALIBU FLOOD AND DEBRIS FLOW RISK...NWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
413 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE MALIBU AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.40 INCHES TO 2.00 INCHES. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE STARTING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY
BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
FORMS, INCLUDING LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONGER, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO (RISK < 5%). FINALLY, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY 1100-NOON, AFFECTING THE MALIBU AREA.
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS ARE IN A FLOOD WATCH FROM 0800 WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH 1700 HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA, THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE OF 0.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES, WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS, INCLUDING IN
THE FRANKLIN AND PALISADES BURN AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA,
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF 0.5 INCH PER HOUR RATES PRODUCING
FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS. THE BRYSON FIRE MAY BE MORE SENSITIVE TO
RAINFALL BUT NO ASSESSMENTS HAVE BEEN DONE THERE.
WEDNESDAY
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........81 81 81 81 81 92 92 92 92 92 92 93
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62 63 64 66 66 67 66 67 67 67 67 66
RH..............93 92 91 91 95 94 93 91 87 86 87 91
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E S S S SE SE SE S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 2 2 2 12 12 12 13 13 13 6
20 FT WIND GUST. 15 15 15 17 17 17 18
EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E E E S S S SE SE SE S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 1 1 1 7 7 7 8 8 8 4
EYE LVL WND GST. 9 9 9 10 10 10 11
RAIN AMOUNT.....0.04 INCH TO 0.60 INCH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........93 93 93 93 93 100 100 100 100 100 100 94
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............65 64 62 61 62 62 62 63 62 62 62 62
RH..............96 99 99 100 100 100 96 96 96 96 96 96
20 FT WIND DIR..S S E E E E E E E E E NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 13 13 13 12 12 12 7 7 7 5
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 21 21 21 20 20 20 13 13 13 12
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S E E E E E E E E E NE
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 4 4 3
EYE LVL WND GST.11 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 8 8 8 7
RAIN AMOUNT.....0.70 INCH TO 1.10 INCH.
THURSDAY
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94 94 94 94 94 86 86 86 86 86 86 50
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............61 62 62 63 63 64 64 64 65 65 65 64
RH..............94 94 95 95 95 94 90 85 82 81 82 84
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 12 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 10 10 10 15 15 15 14
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE SW SW SW W W W W
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 7 7 6
EYE LVL WND GST.7 7 6 6 6 9 9 9 8
RAIN AMOUNT.....0.20 INCH TO 0.35 INCH.
FORECASTER...CILIBERTI
REQUESTED BY...CAROL CILIBERTI
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 2624198.0/LOX
.DELDT 10/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CAROL.CILIBERTI@NOAA.GOV,NTABBAY@MALIBUCITY.ORG
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