681
FNUS76 KMFR 272247
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR IMET - CASTLE FIRE...NORTH OPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
347 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 PDT ON JULY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK PLUS WILL FEATURE
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING WARM (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES) AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS.
EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. WITH DECENT INVERSIONS DEVELOPING
EACH EVENING, WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF AROUND 8-9 PM WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS, MOSTLY EASTERLY AND DOWN DRAINAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
(AND GOOD RH RECOVERY). THIS SHOULD CONNTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE BY THURSDAY, BUT WITH MINIMAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
PRECIP/LIGHTNING CHANCES ARE VERY LOW TO NON-EXISTENT. HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST/DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK. WITH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, SO IT SHOULD COOL OFF AGAIN. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT STRONGER UPPER RIDGING MOVING TO AROUND THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HOTTER TEMPS, BUT MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED
KEEPING THUNDER CHANCES LOW.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY WITH AREAS OF SMOKE.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....CALM OR VARIABLE 0-1 MPH BECOMING NW 1-3 MPH BY
1000, THEN WNW 2-4 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE OR ENE 0-2 MPH BECOMING WNW 5-10 MPH
AFTER 1000. GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NE 2-5 MPH BECOMING W 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....W 2-5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT/CALM.
WIND (20 FT)........WNW 5-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING, THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWN DRAINAGE
0-2 MPH (MAINLY E).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NW 7-12 MPH BECOMING NE AND EASING TO 3-6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....CALM OR VARIABLE 0-1 MPH BECOMING NW 1-3 MPH BY
1000, THEN WNW 2-4 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE OR ENE 0-2 MPH BECOMING WNW 5-10 MPH
AFTER 1000. GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NE 2-5 MPH BECOMING W 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...SPILDE
REQUESTED BY...JULIA RUTHFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618351.0/MFR
.DELDT 07/27/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.LANCASTER@USDA.GOV,JULIA.RUTHFORD@USDA.GOV
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