684
FNUS76 KMFR 280245
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR VAN BREMMER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
745 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2023
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PDT ON MAY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORCAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, MAINTAINING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MODERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND AFTER MONDAY WITH HUMIDITIES SHOWING LESS CHANGE DAY TO DAY
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. A NOTE
ON THE WIND FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT, MODELS DID
NOT HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE IN
THIS TIMEFRAME. MODELS SHOWED A VARIATION IN DIRECTION RANGING
FROM NORTH, TO EAST, TO SOUTHEAST, BEFORE THEY CONVERGED ON THE
DIRECTION COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT DIRECTION.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). 45% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING, AND A 55% CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69 TO 72 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 TO 42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH AT 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST
AT 3 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH AT 1 TO 4 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH.
CWR.................33 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). 15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SUNSET, THEN
LOWERING TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45 TO 50 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 TO 85 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 3 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 2 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MEMORIAL DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY
(50-60 PERCENT). 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A 20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE NOON, INCREASING
TO A 40% CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 76 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AT 2 TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 4 MPH BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AT 3 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 TO 8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
7 - 10 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR NRN CALIF...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
=
FORECASTER...MILES
REQUESTED BY...JACOB WRIGHT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2313814.4/MFR
.DELDT 05/28/23
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JACOB.WRIGHT2@USDA.GOV
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