684  
FNUS76 KMFR 280245  
FWSMFR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR VAN BREMMER...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
745 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PDT ON MAY 28.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORCAL SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, MAINTAINING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MODERATE CHANCES  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT COOLING  
TREND AFTER MONDAY WITH HUMIDITIES SHOWING LESS CHANGE DAY TO DAY  
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. A NOTE  
ON THE WIND FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT, MODELS DID  
NOT HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE IN  
THIS TIMEFRAME. MODELS SHOWED A VARIATION IN DIRECTION RANGING  
FROM NORTH, TO EAST, TO SOUTHEAST, BEFORE THEY CONVERGED ON THE  
DIRECTION COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
FORECAST REFLECTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT DIRECTION.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). 45% CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING, AND A 55% CHANCE FOR RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69 TO 72 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32 TO 42 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH AT 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST  
AT 3 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH AT 1 TO 4 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST  
AT 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 6400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH.  
CWR.................33 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). 15% CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SUNSET, THEN  
LOWERING TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45 TO 50 DEGREES.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 TO 85 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 3 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 2 TO 5 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.  
CWR.................17 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
   
MEMORIAL DAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY  
(50-60 PERCENT). 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A 20%  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE NOON, INCREASING  
TO A 40% CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 76 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 40 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
AT 2 TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 4 MPH BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
AT 3 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 TO 8500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
   
7 - 10 DAY OUTLOOK
 
 
FOR NRN CALIF...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
=  

 
FORECASTER...MILES  
REQUESTED BY...JACOB WRIGHT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2313814.4/MFR  
.DELDT 05/28/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JACOB.WRIGHT2@USDA.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OR Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page