942
FNUS76 KSGX 160050
FWSSGX
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE MORENA COMMUNITY DEFENSE PILE BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
450 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1630 PST ON FEBRUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST
TUESDAY...
DISCUSSION
INCREASING MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF A FAIRLY IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER RECOVERY NEAR 100% WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG IN THE VICINITY MONDAY MORNING, A WINDOW
OF LOWER HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 65 PERCENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY THE
AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH, GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING 30-40 MPH. RAIN
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH
A ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN
SHOWERS BECOME MORE ON AND OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH REMAINING
POSSIBLE. SIMILARLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
TIME (PST) 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............57 54
RH..............55 63
20 FT WIND DIR..W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12
EYE LVL WND DIR.W W
EYE LVL WND SPD.6 5
EYE LVL WND GST.10 9
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 10
CWR.............0 0
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 3 AM
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO
6 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TIME (PST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........56 64 64 64 58 58 58 73 73 73 78 78
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
TEMP............49 45 42 40 40 39 39 37 38 38 38 37
RH..............82 97 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW W NW NW NW N N E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
20 FT WIND GUST.11 9 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4
EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W SW SW W NW NW NW N N E
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
EYE LVL WND GST.8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 15 5 5 15 10 10 15 10 10 20 10
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN
THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
11 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 16
TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 35 TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................6 PERCENT INCREASING TO 98 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 18
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 23
TO 32 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 33 TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (PST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........78 63 63 63 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............38 37 41 50 54 53 53 51 52 51 50 48
RH..............100 100 97 75 65 68 74 86 89 90 96 98
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E SE S SW SW S S S S SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 5 10 8 14 16 17 18 18
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 7 10 18 15 21 25 27 30 31
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE E E SE S SW SW S S S S SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 2 4 7 6 10 11 13 13 14
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 4 5 7 13 11 15 18 19 22 22
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 20 10 10 25 30 35 40 45 45 45 45
CWR.............10 10 10 10 60 60 60 60 60 60 100 100
FORECASTER...DAVID MUNYAN
REQUESTED BY...JOSHUA CRADDOCK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2602396.4/SGX
.DELDT 02/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SM.FS.CNFECC@USDA.GOV,GARRETT.CRAIGHEAD@USDA.GOV,JOSHUA.CRADDOCK@USDA.GOV
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