411
FNUS76 KSTO 050045
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR MADRONE UNIT U...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
445 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 PST ON NOVEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, RAIN, AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS WILL GET UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING AND LEAVING
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE ERRATIC IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. NEAR THE BURN SITE, THERE'S UP TO 16% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A SMALLER
SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES OCCUR MUCH
FURTHER NORTH OF THE BURN SITE. DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. HAZE AND WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........96-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 17 TO 28 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 28 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 88 PERCENT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...16 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
CWR.............100 100 100 100 100 88
CHC OF THDR (%).5 7 16 16 13 16
TEMP............48 47 46 48 51 48
RH..............98 98 100 99 100 98
SL/VL WIND......S 12 S 14 S 14 S 14 S 10 S 8
SL/VL WIND GUST.28 31 29 29 25 23
RIDGETOP WIND...S 23 S 28 S 26 S 26 S 21 S 17
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1700 1100 1100 900 800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 28 S 26 S 26 S 21 S 17
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........96-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH.
CWR.................88 PERCENT DECREASING TO 6 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...16 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
CWR.............90 90 30 30 30 6
CHC OF THDR (%).16 11 10 7 3 0
TEMP............48 48 50 50 51 49
RH..............98 98 96 95 94 95
SL/VL WIND......S 8 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 5 S 1
SL/VL WIND GUST.23 23 16 16 9 3
RIDGETOP WIND...S 17 S 15 S 12 S 12 S 10 S 8
MIX HGT (FT)....800 500 500 500 200 200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 15 S 12 S 12 S 10 S 8
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR
CWR.............6 6 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).3 3 0 0
TEMP............48 49 54 54
RH..............91 91 82 85
SL/VL WIND......S 1G3 SE 1G3 S 2G6 SW 2G9
RIDGETOP WIND...S 8 SE 9 S 8 S 8
MIX HGT (FT)....200 300 2400 3900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 SE 9 S 8 S 8
FORECASTER...SP
REQUESTED BY...KENNETH REMMERT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525139.0/STO
.DELDT 11/04/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KENNETH.REMMERT@USDA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page