309
FNUS76 KSTO 110141
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG HILL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
641 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 PDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE BURN SITE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT
TERRAIN/DIURNAL SURFACE WIND PATTERNS HOLDING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A WAVE OF
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORCAL AND INTRODUCE MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AROUND 15-20% ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY; LESS RISK OF T-STORMS AT THIS TIME.
TRANSPORT AND RIDGETOP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEARBY RAWS SITE SADDLEBACK (~6600 FEET)
HAS OBSERVED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 MPH TODAY (SUNDAY), AND WITH
LITTLE CHANGES IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS THESE
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 7 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5
TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 16 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 52 55 57 63 68 72 74 74 75 76 76
RH..............53 50 48 42 36 29 26 24 24 24 24 25
SL/VL WIND DIR..S SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW
SL/VL WIND SPD..1 2 2 2 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 6
SL/VL WIND GUST.6 7 7 8 12 14 15 16 17 17 18 17
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..7 7 9 9 9 16 16 16 20 20 20 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 9 9 9 16 16 16 20 20 20 15
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........46-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 71 70 64 62 60 59 58 57 54 54 54
RH..............26 33 36 40 42 44 45 45 45 47 47 48
SL/VL WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW S S S SE SE SE SE
SL/VL WIND SPD..6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
SL/VL WIND GUST.17 17 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S SE
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 15 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 20
TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 26 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TIME (PDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 54 58 61 65 69 72 73 74 75 75 74
RH..............48 48 46 42 36 31 28 27 26 25 25 26
SL/VL WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW
SL/VL WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 12 12 12 10 10 10 9
SL/VL WIND GUST.8 8 10 10 10 22 22 22 23 23 23 22
RIDGE WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S SW
RIDGE WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 24 24 24 26 26 26 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 10 10 10 6.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 9 9 9 24 24 24 26 26 26 20
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
WEDNESDAY
COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED
IN LATEST MODEL RUNS, WITH AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
FORECASTER...JW
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS ENRIQUEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612855.5/STO
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHRISTIAN.ENRIQUEZ@USDA.GOV,CASEY.SIMONI@USDA.GOV,JOSEPH.MCGINN@USDA.GOV
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