951  
FNUS76 KSTO 211802  
FWSSTO  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR RX...USDA FS ENF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA  
1102 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PDT ON OCTOBER 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING  
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY  
WINDS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR  
THE BURN SITE ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING  
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-53.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66-70 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST 4 TO 6 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
RIDGETOP...........EAST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7 TO  
8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 20  
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 14  
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (PDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
CWR.............0 10 10 15 20 10  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 3 8 12 14 4  
TEMP............46 47 48 48 48 46  
RH..............57 61 65 74 83 89  
SL/VL WIND......E 5 NE 3 W 5 W 5 W 6 W 4  
SL/VL WIND GUST.7 7 8 8 12 9  
RIDGETOP WIND...SE 7 E 6 NW 7 NW 7 W 8 NW 7  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 2500 2500 3900 2000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 E 6 NW 7 NW 7 W 8 NW 7  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-42.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-84 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST  
5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (PDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............45 42 42 42 42 42  
RH..............93 97 86 76 71 68  
SL/VL WIND......W 3 N 3 N 3 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6  
SL/VL WIND GUST.9 7 7 9 9 9  
RIDGETOP WIND...NW 7 N 6 N 6 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 N 6 N 6 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-58.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST UP TO 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.  
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO  
8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 9 MPH  
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO  
8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (PDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
CWR.............0 0 0  
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0  
TEMP............41 47 54  
RH..............69 56 49  
SL/VL WIND......NE 6G9 NE 6G9 W 5G10  
RIDGETOP WIND...NE 9 NE 7 W 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 3700  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 9 NE 7 W 8  
 

 
FORECASTER...NR  
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW KETEL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2524111.0/STO  
.DELDT 10/21/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL MATTHEW.KETEL@USDA.GOV  
 
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