682
FNUS76 KSTO 170511
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR LILLY LAKE BE01...USFS/ LTBMU
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
911 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PST ON NOVEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS RAIN
AND TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DIMINISHES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST IS 3-6 INCHES FOR THE BURN SITE AND
0.5-1.0 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH A 15-25MPH FOR THE RIDGE TOP AND DIMINISH TOWARD 10-15MPH BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. FURTHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING, THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-43.
MIN HUMIDITY........83-87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 17 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................89 PERCENT DECREASING TO 15 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...6 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
CWR.............90 90 50 50 50 50 50 50 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............31 34 35 38 38 38 40 38 35 32
RH..............100 100 97 88 84 84 81 83 92 100
SL/VL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW
SL/VL WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
SL/VL WIND GUST.13 12 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 9
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.1 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 20 20 20 17 17 17 10 10
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....19-23.
MAX HUMIDITY........98-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 7
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................16 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............28 27 26 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 24 24
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 99 99 99 100 100 100
SL/VL WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W NE NE NE NE NE
SL/VL WIND SPD..2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
SL/VL WIND GUST.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S SW W W NW NW N NE NE NE
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 10 10 5 5 5 0 5 5 10 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S W W W N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 12 12
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-44.
MIN HUMIDITY........85-89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST 12 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7
TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................12 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............24 25 28 32 35 38 39 40 41 40 38 36
RH..............100 100 99 98 96 92 87 85 88 94 99 100
SL/VL WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SL/VL WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
SL/VL WIND GUST.6 8 8 8 10 10 10 12 12 12 9 9
RIDGE WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E NE E
RIDGE WIND SPD..20 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 14 14 15 15 15 12 12 12 7 7
FORECASTER...JS
REQUESTED BY...DAVID DELEON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525962.0/STO
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DAVID.DELEON@USDA.GOV
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