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FNUS86 KLOX 212218
FWLLOX
ECCDA DISCUSSIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
ECC029-221630-
LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR VANDENBERG ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
..DISCUSSION FROM MONTEREY
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
NOTE : ALL WINDS ARE 20-FOOT WINDS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
..DISCUSSION FROM LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECC028-221630-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCLUDING LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR SANTA BARBARA ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECC031-221630-
ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR LANCASTER ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECC024-221630-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY-
DISCUSSION FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECC032-221630-
VENTURA COUNTY EXCLUDING LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR VENTURA ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECC030-221630-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY EXCLUDING ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR LOS ANGELES ECC DISPATCH
318 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOW
IMPACTS...
...FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...
AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH 1.50 TO
3.00 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORM, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN RATES TO LOCALLY EXCEED 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS RECENT BURN
SCARS, ESPECIALLY FIRST YEAR SCARS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOWER
BUT PRESENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.90 INCHES PER HOUR, HIGHEST
CHANCES (30%) FOR AREAS IN FLOOD WATCHES. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS FLOWS. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO. A RELATIVELY ISOLATED AREA IN SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY (INSIDE A FLOOD WATCH) HAS ALREADY SEEN
1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THANKS TO AN ENHANCED BAND OF RAIN WHICH
DROPPED MUCH OF THAT IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA
ANA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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