937
FNUS86 KLOX 172253
FWLLOX
ECCDA DISCUSSIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
ECC029-181700-
LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR VANDENBERG ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
..DISCUSSION FROM MONTEREY
...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST DUE TO LIGHTNING THREAT...
LAST WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INFILTRATES THE REGION.
HINTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MARIO ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CENTRAL COAST REGION. AS OF
WRITING, THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY UP THE
COAST AND THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO RAMP UP
LATER TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTING
IS GREATEST IN THESE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, WE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TO A MORE TROPICAL-TYPE
AIRMASS WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AMPLE WETTING RAIN. THE BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND THE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT, AND
OF COURSE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT HAPPEN TO STRIKE AWAY FROM THE
CORE. THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING DECREASING WITH LATITUDE.
NOTE : ALL WINDS ARE 20-FOOT WINDS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
..DISCUSSION FROM LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
ECC028-181700-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EXCLUDING LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR SANTA BARBARA ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
ECC031-181700-
ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR LANCASTER ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
ECC024-181700-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY-
DISCUSSION FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
ECC032-181700-
VENTURA COUNTY EXCLUDING LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR VENTURA ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
ECC030-181700-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY EXCLUDING ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-
DISCUSSION FOR LOS ANGELES ECC DISPATCH
353 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
...WIDESPREAD OFF AND ON SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
WITH RISKS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM MARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS DECREASING AS THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
IS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. ANY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ANYWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISKS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RECENT BURN SCARS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR A DEBRIS
FLOW, WITH A SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
FLOWS IF AN UNFORTUNATELY HEAVY SHOWER FORMS AND SLOWS RIGHT OVER A
BURN SCAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND BRIEF WINDS ALSO EXISTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CORE
OF SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A ANOTHER CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SURGE
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETHING OF A LESSER DEGREE THAN OUR CURRENT
SURGE.
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