269
FNUS86 KMTR 211158
FWLMTR
ECCDA DISCUSSIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
#####################################################################
## ##
## DISCUSSIONS FROM THE LATEST FWF BELOW ##
## ##
#####################################################################
..DISCUSSION FROM SFOFWFMTR
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION NOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
DOWN THROUGH THE BIG SUR COAST TODAY AND A GENERAL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA.THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
..DISCUSSION FROM SFOFWFEKA
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WHEN MOISTURE FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS IN. COVERAGE AND TOTALS OF RAINFALL HAS
INCREASED. A MUCH LARGER POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING RAIN EXISTS OVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR (BROADLY 40-60%, WITH UP TO 70% OVER LAKE
COUNTY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS, UP TO 10%
CHANCE. THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND ARRIVAL OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE AWAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
PLUMMETING RH BACK TO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
#####################################################################
## ##
## COMPLETE A DISCUSSION FOR EACH ECCDA SEGMENT BELOW ##
## WHEN DONE CLICK TRANSMIT, PRODUCT SENT AS KMTRFWLMTR ##
## ##
#####################################################################
ECC010-220000-
ST HELENA ECC DISPATCH-
DISCUSSION FOR MARIN AND SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES
458 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION NOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
DOWN THROUGH THE BIG SUR COAST TODAY AND A GENERAL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA.THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ECC014-220000-
MORGAN HILL ECC DISPATCH-
DISCUSSION FOR ALAMEDA AND CONTRA COSTA AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES
458 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION NOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
DOWN THROUGH THE BIG SUR COAST TODAY AND A GENERAL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA.THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ECC013-220000-
FELTON ECC DISPATCH-
DISCUSSION FOR SANTA CRUZ AND SAN MATEO COUNTIES
458 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION NOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
DOWN THROUGH THE BIG SUR COAST TODAY AND A GENERAL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA.THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ECC018-220000-
MONTEREY ECC DISPATCH-
DISCUSSION FOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY
458 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION NOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
DOWN THROUGH THE BIG SUR COAST TODAY AND A GENERAL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND BAY AREA.THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST, POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TIMBER AND
PLASKETT BURN SCARS, BRINGING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page