945
FSUS46 KLOX 141040
QPSLOX
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
334 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2025
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 1700 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0500.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0500 ON DAY 1 ONLY.
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.
THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: TUE OCT 14 2025 THROUGH MON OCT 20 2025.
05-08 08-11 11-14 14-17 | 17-23 23-05
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...
LSRC1:CAMBRIA LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA LGT LGT LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE 0.2 LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.10-0.20 0.10-0.20
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 45% 55%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% <5%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0400-0700
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 0.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
05-08 08-11 11-14 14-17 | 17-23 23-05
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
SIYC1:SANTA MARIA 0.1 LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO 0.4 0.1 0.1 LGT | 0.0 0.0
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM 0.3 LGT 0.1 LGT | 0.0 0.0
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS 0.3 LGT 0.1 LGT | 0.0 0.0
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY 0.3 LGT LGT LGT | LGT 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.10-0.20 0.20-0.40
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 45% 95%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 30%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0400-0700
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 0.75 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
05-08 08-11 11-14 14-17 | 17-23 23-05
VENTURA COUNTY...
FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON 0.5 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON 0.7 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM 0.4 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
VTUC1:VENTURA CITY 0.4 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
MORC1:MOORPARK 0.6 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH 0.7 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.20-0.40 0.35-0.55
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 35% 85%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 20%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0400-0900
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 1.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
05-08 08-11 11-14 14-17 | 17-23 23-05
LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT 1.7 0.7 0.2 LGT | 0.0 0.0
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM 0.9 0.5 0.2 LGT | 0.0 0.0
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM 0.9 0.3 0.1 LGT | LGT 0.0
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE 1.0 0.4 0.1 LGT | 0.0 0.0
SAUC1:SAUGUS 0.7 0.2 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
CQT:DOWNTOWN LA 0.5 0.3 LGT LGT | 0.0 0.0
MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA 0.4 0.2 LGT LGT | LGT 0.0
1-HR RATES: COASTS/VALLEYS FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED PEAK (IN/HR): 0.30-0.50 0.55-0.95
PROBABILITY 0.50+ IN/HR: 50% 100%
PROBABILITY 1.00+ IN/HR: <5% 45%
PEAK RATES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN: 0400-1000
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: 40%
ISOLATED RATES AROUND 2.0 IN/HR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVNEING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 AND 1.50
INCHES, EXCEPT 2.00 TO 4.00 INCHES ACROSS THE FAVORABLE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES PERHAPS ANYWHERE A STRONG TSTM FORMS. AN ISOLATED READING OF
5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. PEAK RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.33 TO 0.66 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON. ISOLATED RATES
TO AROUND 1.00 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES AND UNDER CONVECTIVE BURSTS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR WEDESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LAST ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THIS RAINY SEASON
WAS ON APRIL 30. ROUTINE ISSUANCES WILL RESUME ON NOV 1.
NON-ROUTINE ISSUANCES OF THIS PRODUCT WILL OCCUR SHOULD WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BE EXPECTED.
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