088
FXUS65 KPSR 240526
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1026 PM MST FRI OCT 23 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
READINGS WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ARIZONA SATURDAY,
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRACE THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A RETURN TO INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED, POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A PROMINENT VORTICITY CENTER
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO FILL INTO THE HEIGHT WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
BEHIND THE INITIAL GREAT BASIN WAVE, A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR NOW
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT
THAT A VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY DESCENDING SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
RANGE WILL CARVE INTO THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENSURE H5 HEIGHTS
HOVER IN A 565-572DM RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4F-8F BELOW THE DAILY NORMALS AND VERY COMFORTABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE HAS ALREADY BEEN
SCOURED FROM THE REGION LEAVING MIXING RATIOS ONLY 5-6 G/KG, THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, ALBEIT
RATHER INCONSEQUENTIAL WHILE LEAVING LOWER ELEVATIONS ENJOYING A
DELIGHTFUL AUTUMN WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LINGERING TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND BEING REPLACED
BY WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO A NEAR NORMAL RANGE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE LOWER
DESERTS TO HAVE DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY GROWS LATER NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THEN A POTENTIAL
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. EITHER, OR BOTH OF
THESE MOISTURE SOURCES MAY EVENTUALLY HELP TO BRING A RETURN TO RAIN
CHANCES AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON TIMING AND/OR PLACEMENT FOR ANY WEATHER
FEATURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0525Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH OVERALL SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT VARIABILITY TO EVEN CALM CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CLOUD DECKS AOA 7 KFT
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE WEST TO NORTH
WITH OVERALL SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
VARIABILITY. OTHER THAN SOME SCT CLOUD DECKS AROUND 10 KFT
PERSISTING AT KIPL THROUGH TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO MOUNTAIN AREAS
SATURDAY, BUT NO WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL FALL INTO A 25-50% RANGE FOLLOWING GOOD TO EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME BREEZINESS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY STABLE
HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY
TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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