457
FXUS65 KPSR 061730
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST MON APR 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NINETIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY, PROVIDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARIZONA
HIGH TERRAIN.
- ANOTHER STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS,
COOLING TEMPERATURES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS AN EASTERLY WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX AND ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. GUSTS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND IN
THE 15-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION
TODAY. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FROM BOTH
THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO BRING A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE AZ HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER OR
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF OCCASIONAL VIRGA ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
(AROUND 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY) ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS SE CA AND
SW AZ AS THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE EXITING THOSE AREAS
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, AND IN THE
LOWER 80S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
EAST OF PHOENIX.
BY TUESDAY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S (MID TO UPPER 80S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN), WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 576-579 DM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (MID TO UPPER 80S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN), WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND THIS WEEKEND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OF CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTS STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS AZ.
ENSEMBLES SHOW H5 HEIGHTS GOING FROM 576-579 DM ON THURSDAY TO
573-576 DM ON FRIDAY. WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO START TO COOL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (LOW TO MID 80S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
(HIGHER TERRAIN). THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY GET WRAPPED UP INTO A
TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES ON SHORE. IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND DEEPER THAN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER THAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE AND LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 80S (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE ATYPICAL WIND PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. E'RLY
DIRECTIONS SHOULD BE FAVORED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT A
BRIEF WINDOW OF VRB AND EVEN W'RLY DIRECTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NONETHELESS, THE TYPICAL FULL AFTERNOON/EVENING W'RLY SHIFT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY. RATHER, THE MORE SUSTAINED W'RLY COMPONENT IS
SHOWN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT KPHX, DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE LOWEST BASES AROUND 12K FT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR A W'RLY COMPONENT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE EVENING, WHILE KBLH SHOULD SEE EXTENDED
PERIODS OF VRB CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BKN-OVC SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 10-20% RANGE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND IN THE 20-40% RANGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOWER RH VALUES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH MINRH FALLING TO 10-20% REGION WIDE. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (40-60%
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60-100% ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THEN FALL TO 25-60% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING
HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN
EASTERN MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WEEKEND A WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page