219
FXUS65 KPSR 222354
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S MID AND LATE WEEK.
- DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 582-585DAM. THE BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A RAPID WARMING OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
PAST 48 HOURS. TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE HOW RAPID THE WARMING HAS
BEEN, TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS PRIOR AND ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
48 HOURS PRIOR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. EVEN THOUGH 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL NOT
CHANGE THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S IN THE FORECAST, THE OVERALL HEATRISK LEVEL
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MINOR CATEGORY AND THUS IF PARTAKING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAKE SURE TO FREQUENTLY HYDRATE AND
TAKE BRAKES IN THE SHADE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, DESPITE A
VERY BRIEF DIP IN H5 HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NW CONUS AND INTO THE PLAINS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES UNANIMOUSLY
SHOW H5 HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 582-585DAM THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE FORECAST TO
REACH UP TO 17-19C BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE ARE MORE COMMON FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IS NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT IS IN THE
FORECAST. LATEST NBM HAS FORECAST HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND THEN WIDESPREAD LOW 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOME COMMUNITIES, LIKE YUMA, AZ AND EL
CENTRO, CA PUSHING 95 DEGREES.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING DAILY RECORDS LATE
THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN PHOENIX FOR THE
END OF FEBRUARY ARE AROUND 89-92F (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AND
92F IS ALSO THE RECORD HIGHEST FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE. SO, THERE IS
EVEN A DECENT CHANCE OF SETTING A NEW MONTHLY RECORD IN PHOENIX.
THE MIDNIGHT RUN OF THE NBM HAS A FORECAST HIGH OF 92F IN PHOENIX
ON THE FINAL TWO DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH AROUND A 75% CHANCE OF 92F
OR HIGHER. WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS. THIS HEAT WILL POSE A HEALTH RISK IF YOU SPEND EXTENDED
TIME OUTDOORS IN THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT BREAKS FROM THE SUN AND/OR
PROPER HYDRATION. BESIDES THE COMING HEAT, THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BREEZES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT
SOME BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, AND THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES, BUT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL FAVOR POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MARCH. THIS WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER UNFAVORABLE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2355Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EASTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 8 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BE AOB 8 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
BESIDES A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
MINRH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10-20% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE AROUND 35-50% EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PUSHING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZE
AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS MOST DAYS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS EXCEEDING 20-25 MPH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE ANOTHER UPTICK IN EASTERLY WINDS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CLIMATE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
--------- --------- ---------
2/25 92 (1921) 95 (1986) 94 (1986)
2/26 91 (1986) 96 (1986) 95 (1986)
2/27 92 (1986) 95 (1986) 96 (1986)
2/28 89 (1986) 97 (1986) 92 (1986)
3/1 89 (2016) 93 (1986) 91 (2016)
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/LOJERO
CLIMATE...BENEDICT
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