722
FXUS65 KPSR 020826
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
126 AM MST THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH GRADUAL DRYING ACROSS THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN STARTING THIS WEEKEND WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW BEING DRIVEN BY DRY WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR HAS
ALSO SETTLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN OUR COOLEST FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE MID MARCH. THE REST OF TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE TRACK OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH
WYOMING ON FRIDAY, BUT A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DESPITE THE TROUGH AXIS MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAINLY
ALONG RIDGETOP LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY THROUGH
THE CHOCOLATE MOUNTAINS FOCUSED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
MORNING HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT DROPPING SURFACE DEW POINTS TO BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP
TO QUICKLY BOOST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY,
WHILE THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS AS OF NOW SHOWS A BRIEF 12-24 HOUR PERIOD ON
SUNDAY OF MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY
RAISING LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS TO BETWEEN 6-7 G/KG ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. IF THIS MOISTURE DOES MAKE ITS WAY
INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SOME CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL WITH POPS
NOW AS HIGH AS 30-40% ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY. THE DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY PROHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION GETTING CLOSE TO THE PHOENIX AREA.
BY MONDAY, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN LIKELY ENDING
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL
BE IN CHARGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION UNDER OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING STABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0536Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL TRENDS HAVE RETURNED FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAF PACKAGE AS IF THEY DO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY AT KIPL. KIPL CAN EXPECT GUSTS NEAR
25KTS UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AOA 10KTS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. AT KBLH WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10KTS, WITH A PERIOD OF VRB EARLY TOMORROW.
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL FALL INTO A 15-25% RANGE TODAY WITH EVEN DRIER VALUES CLOSER
TO 10% FRIDAY. FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 40-70% WILL
DETERIORATE INTO A POOR TO FAIR 20-50% RANGE. ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL ONLY SEE
MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND POTENTIALLY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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