714
FXUS65 KPSR 051702
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN APR 5 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NINETIES
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
CORE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW, AND A BACKDOOR FRONT
BEING PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN AZ. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CAUSE
EASTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PWATS INCREASE TO 170-200% OF NORMAL IN
EASTERN AZ, WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS, MAINLY THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RELAX AS RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH H5 HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 580-582 DAM TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP
FACILITATE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL AID TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AFTERWARDS GOING INTO TUESDAY
MODERATE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATE OVER THE REGION, WITH
DRYER AIR FILLING BACK IN CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. BY FRIDAY MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
UNFORTUNATELY, AT THIS TIME A LOT OF UNCERTAINLY CAN BE SEEN ON
CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN THE EXACT TIMING AND POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINLY, TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
BEGIN TO TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. CONTINUED MONITORING OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
PERIODS OF GUSTY EAST WINDS WITH LOFTED DUST/HAZE WILL BE THE
GREATEST WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS AND OCCASIONAL VIRGA. CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT
THAT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME, HOWEVER TIMING
OF STRONGER GUSTS CARRIES MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. CURRENT
MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS GUSTS RESUMING OVERNIGHT AT A
VERY UNUSUAL TIME AS AN EASTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. THESE GUSTY WINDS
HAVE/WILL RESULT IN LOFTED DUST RESULTING IN POOR SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNSET/SUNRISE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER THICKENING MID/HIGH CIGS. WHILE PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE COMMON, CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL KIPL AND NORTHERLY AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL STAY NEAR 10-15%
IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS, HOWEVER INCREASING TO 20-35% TODAY AND
MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AND FAR EASTERN AZ, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL AZ
WHERE PEAK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTER WINDS
BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO/RYAN
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