096
FXUS65 KPSR 260000
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 PM MST SAT APR 25 2026
UPDATE
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK, RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL STARTING MIDWEEK. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS WELL INTO THE NINETIES LOOK POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
- A POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TO THE AREA, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH LINGER JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. CONSIDERABLE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PROVIDED
BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC DISTURBANCE, HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, BUT THE AT LEAST SOME
THINNING/CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. THESE CLOUD WILL SUPPRESS INSOLATION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
THE REGION SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HIGHS, WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR
THE LOWER DESERTS. AN ASSOCIATED JET ALOFT, RESULTING FROM AN
ENHANCED REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL START TO SEE SOME OF ITS
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS REACH THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING CAN INITIATE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE PEAK READINGS
SHOULD REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE SOME
SAY IN HOW MUCH MIXING OCCURS, BUT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST, THOSE WESTERN LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT THOSE HIGHER GUSTS.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER WILL SEE MORE LIMITED GUSTS
THANKS TO SHALLOWER MOMENTUM TRANSFER, BUT GUSTS 20-25 MPH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN GILA COUNTY, SHOULD BE COMMON.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, THE JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND INTERACT WITH
THE PENINSULAR RANGES THAT SPLIT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM
THE DESERT, GENERATING EVEN STRONGER WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR
IMPERIAL, CA INDICATE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH
50KT BY AROUND SUNSET. THIS IS LIKELY THANKS TO THE CHANNELING OF
WINDS THROUGH AN INCREASING STABLE LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST, ACCELERATING WHAT WILL ALREADY BE ENHANCED
WINDS DOWN THE TERRAIN TOWARD THE DESERT FLOOR. WE LOSE THE MIXING,
BUT THIS TERRAIN INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE MANY LOCATIONS,
FROM AND AREA STRETCHING FROM JOSHUA TREE NP DOWN THROUGH MOST OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40+ MPH. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TOO SEE ISOLATED GUSTS 50+ MPH AS MOUNTAIN ROTORS WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY. IN RESPONSE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE, IT WILL DRAG A DECAYING COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR PARTS OF THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, LIMITED FORCING AND A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL INHIBIT MOST, IF NOT ALL, RAINFALL ACTIVITY FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
BORDER OF MARICOPA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES SEE A LIGHT SHOWER, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLAGSTAFF CWA. MOST OF US WILL
MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, BUT SOME VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES, A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONCE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AND WARM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY AND
THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS STILL AN ISSUE FOR
LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, NOW FAVORED MORE ON THURSDAY
INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES DEFINITELY LOOK BETTER
THAN THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THE LATEST NBM/WPC POPS HAVE RISEN
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TO 20-30%, WHILE THE REST OF THE
LOWER DESERTS ARE MORE IN A 10-15% RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO WARM ABOVE 90 DEGREES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEATHER
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A WIDER RANGE OF POTENTIAL HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD
TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE WARMING UP EVEN MORE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2350Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
PERIODS OF GUSTY SW-W WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZY CONDITIONS
AND SLANTWISE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM LOFTED DUST, PRIMARILY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THIS AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID-LVL
CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING, AND CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING WESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME ELEVATED NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KTS, SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED TODAY. CIGS AOA 15 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CIGS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 7-8 KFT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
STRONG, GUSTY SW-W WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SLANTWISE AND SFC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER AT KIPL, REMAINING WESTERLY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING.
THESE STRONG GUSTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST CHANNELS, POTENTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 5-6 SM. EXTENDED PERIODS OF GUSTY SW-W WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AT KIPL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KBLH, WINDS
WILL ALSO PEAK THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-35 KTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAT GUSTS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT. BOTH TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE A RESURGENCE OF GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ONLY PEAKING AROUND 20-30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS TODAY,
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, COMMONLY REACHING 20-25 MPH IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO AS HIGH AS 35-50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS SUNDAY WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. EXPECT MINRHS THIS AFTERNOON 15-20%
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY TO 20-30%. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, RISING TO 40-60% TONIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING OFF AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT MAY BRING SOME HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS, BUT CWR IS LESS THAN 10%. SEASONABLY BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF CREATING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ560-563>568.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
SHORT TERM..RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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