285
FXUS65 KPSR 142305
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 PM MST FRI AUG 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE HEATING BACK UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH THE
PHOENIX AREA ALREADY NOTICING MODERATE DRYING FROM THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDING WITH PWATS ALREADY DROPPING TO 1.4", COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S 1.69" MEASUREMENT. THOUGH A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON GOES WV IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CA, AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE IS MOSTLY
PROVIDING CLOUD COVERAGE, HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROVIDING EXTRA SUPPORT FOR LIFT, CAMS ARE CONTINUING TO POINT
TOWARDS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, CAMS WERE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR PATTERN LAST NIGHT, TO NO
AVAIL, SO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE IS SEEMS
LIKELY THAT THESE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ONCE MORE.
STARTING TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CA WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO REBUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SW REGION. THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME, TODAY IS STILL
FORECASTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS
RANGING BETWEEN 95F-103F. BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BACK NEAR NORMAL OR BETWEEN 100F-105F, AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE BUILDING HEAT AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK OVER OUR REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM 588-591DM ON
SATURDAY TO 594-596DM SUNDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON TUESDAY AT AROUND 596-
597DM. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FALL
CLOSE TO THE 97TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE PERIOD, BUT
FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AND ITS VERY PLAUSIBLE IT MAY
NEED TO GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE RIDGE IS NOT
LIKELY TO WEAKEN OR MOVE MUCH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM
FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING UP,
BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHS AROUND 110 DEGREES. THE MAIN QUESTION ABOUT
THE HEAT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA POTENTIALLY BRING OUTFLOWS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AND/OR
DEBRIS CLOUDS. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE SOME MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT SHOULD ONLY BE ENOUGH TO HELP
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE ENOUGH TO GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO MORE THAN LIKELY THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF
AROUND 110 DEGREES WILL HOLD.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2305Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING UNDER
PERIODS OF THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT TS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT IMPACT TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL MUCH LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN FACT,
THE EASTERLY SWITCH MAY NOT FULLY BE COMPLETED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
AT KPHX.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF TS DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS EXISTS THIS
EVENING, AND TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. OTHERWISE,
UNDER A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS, WINDS SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN A
SE AND SW HEADING WITH JUST SOME MODEST AFTERNOON GUSTS. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND MAY BE COMMON FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY NEARLY COMING TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLATED TO
DROP WITH AFTERNOON MINRHS OF 25-35% TODAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 25% FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
STARTING SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL SHIFT FROM GOOD THROUGH
SATURDAY TO FAIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LIGHT
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ534-537>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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