523
FXUS65 KPSR 071928
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1228 PM MST TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK
- THE PATTERN CHANGES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHED THE REGION, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TRANQUIL SETUP OVER MUCH OF
THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER
THE REGION WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS YESTERDAY MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH MUCH MORE INSOLATION AND A WARMER
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COMPARED TO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE NOTICEABLE JUMP AS
READINGS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
THANKFULLY, THAT IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO AWAY FROM RECORD
TERRITORY, BUT IS, NONTHELESS, DECENTLY WARMER (COINCIDENTALLY,
BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES) THAN WHERE WE TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL THE MAINSTAY OF THE REGIONAL FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, KEEPING US WARM AND DRY AT LEAST FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS. THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ALLIGNED WITH
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE GOOD NEWS
IS, CHANCES OF REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN ARE QUITE LOW FOR
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS, BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW SPOTS AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SALTON SEA
SEEING THE CENTURY MARK. THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SAME,
ALBIET A FEW DEGREES "COOLER" AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR OUR REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTS STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS AZ. ENSEMBLES SHOW H5 HEIGHTS GOING
FROM 576-579 DM ON THURSDAY TO 573-576 DM ON FRIDAY. WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (LOW TO MID 80S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN). THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY GET
WRAPPED UP INTO A TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND
EVENTUALLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE. IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND DEEPER THEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND
LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 80S (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN) THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ENSEMBLES
POINT TO HAVING THE TROUGH SLOWLY START TO EXIT OUR REGION. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, DRY NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN DRIER
AIR TO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT THIS WILL PUT AN END TO ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR REGION. WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT STILL INFLUENCING OUR REGION ON MONDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SUNDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (70S)
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN), WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WIND BEHAVIOR WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
VARIATIONS WITH USUAL TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND SPEEDS UNDER 12KT.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 10-20% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
25-60%. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTINESS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THIS WEEKEND A WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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