904
FXUS65 KPSR 280024
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
524 PM MST SAT MAY 27 2023
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
UTAH AND COLORADO. HOT/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY, HOWEVER LIGHTER WINDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS.
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASED THICKNESSES AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LATEST DETERMINISTIC NBM INDICATES THE
HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE MONDAY, WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN PHOENIX.
MEANWHILE, A COMPACT, CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST GRADUALLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD BREEZINESS EACH
AFTERNOON, THOUGH ECWMF EFIS BELOW 50 PERCENT PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, SUGGESTING THE LACK OF ANY ANOMALOUS EVENTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, SOME ECMWF MEMBERS INDICATE PEAK GUSTS
COULD REACH 40-45 MPH ACROSS THE IMPERIAL VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL LIKELY MEANDER AND EVEN RETROGRADE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE ULTIMATELY MOVING EASTWARD AND
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA, WHERE THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0024Z.
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS, WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS, WILL PERSIST
WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL TENDENCIES. A PERIOD
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
VEERING TOWARD A W/SW COMPONENT GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
LIGHT WINDS AT KIPL WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS,
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS, EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT. AT KBLH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
PERIODS OF VARIABILITY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15% MOST AREAS, WITH AN OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AROUND
20-30% ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS AND 40-60% FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON COULD CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE WESTERLY
SUNDOWNER WIND GUSTS IN PARTS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY REACH 25-35 MPH.
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH. IMPERIAL COUNTY WILL SEE SIMILAR SUNDOWNER WINDS
AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, UP TO 25
TO 35 MPH ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY, AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. WIND DIRECTIONAL TENDENCIES WILL MOSTLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE, NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HYDROLOGY
UPDATED 150 AM MST 5/27/2023
GILA: ONGOING RELEASES FROM PAINTED ROCK DAM CONTINUE TO TRAVEL DOWN
THE GILA RIVER THROUGH YUMA COUNTY. THESE RELEASES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT UNBRIDGED CROSSINGS WITH MULTIPLE ROADS REMAINING CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING. THE LATEST USGS GAUGE OBSERVATION ALONG THE GILA RIVER
NEAR DATELAND HAS FALLEN MORE THAN 1.5 FT BELOW ACTION STAGE OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE MOST RECENT READING BEING 6.46 FT.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, THE USGS GAUGE NEAR DOME/YUMA IS VERY SLOWLY
DECLINING, BUT REMAINS ABOVE ACTION STAGE (20 FT) WITH THE LATEST
READING OF 20.45 FT. DESPITE THE DECLINES, AND ONE GAUGE FALLING
BELOW ACTION STAGE, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS
DOWNSTREAM FROM PAINTED ROCK DAM UNTIL IMPROVEMENT OF IMPACTS CAN BE
CONFIRMED WITH OFFICIALS. THE FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MAY 30TH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/HIRSCH
HYDROLOGY...BENEDICT
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