256
FXUS65 KPSR 140515
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 PM MST FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE FOR MARCH IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY, AND 105 DEGREES
BY NEXT FRIDAY, SHATTERING DAILY RECORDS BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THEN EXPANDING THURSDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA, BUT WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. H5 HEIGHTS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 579-585DM RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, A
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST,
CAUSING WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES,
GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE AREAS ALONG THE CO. RIVER, WITH GUST
SPEEDS UP TO 25-30 MPH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL COMMON AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR BY FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE FOR MID MARCH WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF 20-30F ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUGGESTING AN EVEN STRONGER RECORD BREAKING
RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
INCOMING RIDGE SLIGHTLY, POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF
PEAK TEMPERATURES BY ROUGHLY A DAY. STILL, THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO
BREAK DAILY RECORDS BY AS MUCH AS 10+ DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS AND ALL
TIME MARCH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WHERE THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
TO PUT IT INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD H2 HEIGHTS ARE
PROJECTED OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF RECORD H5 HEIGHTS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHTS
OF 588-592DM ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PEAKING AS HIGH AS 594-596DM ON OR AROUND NEXT
THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE, SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY DATA FOR LAS VEGAS,
FLAGSTAFF, AND TUCSON ALL SHOW RECORD H5 HEIGHTS FOR MARCH ARE
AROUND 590DM AND APRIL 591DM, 593DM, AND 592DM RESPECTIVELY. SO, THE
RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG IF NOT A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER THAN ANY RIDGE THIS REGION HAS EVER SEEN IN MARCH OR APRIL.
GUIDANCE DOES START TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE BY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT THAT IS WHERE MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH SOME
MEMBERS HANGING ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT LONGER. UNTIL THEN, FORECAST
H8, H7, AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE RECORD
LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FROM TUESDAY-SATURDAY SO, THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE BY
HOW MUCH WILL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BE BROKEN. THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM MORE INTO THE MID 90S AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN BY
TUESDAY WITH NBM FORECAST HIGHS OF 99-102 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. PHOENIX WILL MOST LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO HIT 100 DEGREES. THIS WOULD EASILY
BREAK THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD (CURRENTLY MARCH 26,
1988). ADDITIONAL RECORDS LIKELY TO BE MET OR BROKEN LATE NEXT WEEK
COULD BE THE EARLIEST EVER 105 DEGREE DAY IN PHOENIX, WHICH
CURRENTLY IS APRIL 20TH AND THE EARLIEST 106 DEGREE DAY WHICH
CURRENTLY IS MAY 2.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. DUE TO THIS, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXPANDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BOTH LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0515Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER PERIODS
OF HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING OF
DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS, THOUGH
SPEEDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PHOENIX METRO SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MODEST GUSTS. EXTENDED PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE HEATING UP EVEN FURTHER (20-30 ABOVE NORMAL) LATER NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH MINRHS AT OR JUST BELOW 10%
AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR
TO FAIR, MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-40% EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BECOME A PROBLEM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
3/14 95 IN 2013 96 IN 2017 97 IN 2017
3/15 92 IN 2013 98 IN 1934 100 IN 1934
3/16 99 IN 2007 99 IN 2007 100 IN 2007
3/17 99 IN 2007 101 IN 2007 101 IN 2007
3/18 95 IN 2017 96 IN 2017 95 IN 2007
3/19 96 IN 2017 98 IN 2017 96 IN 2017
3/20 96 IN 2017 99 IN 2004 98 IN 2004
3/21 97 IN 2004 102 IN 2004 100 IN 2004
3/22 94 IN 1990 98 IN 2004 96 IN 2004
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ530.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ531>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ561>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/RYAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/RYAN
CLIMATE...18/KUHLMAN
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