257
FXUS65 KPSR 110542
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1042 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WARM NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND CONTINUE GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED FROM NW/N YESTERDAY TO NE/E TODAY AS
A REX BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AT ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT IS DRAPED FROM OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA UP THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE INTERIOR WEST. ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LOW
WILL DETACH FROM THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SETTLE
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN THIS CLOSED LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, AN EASTERLY JET WILL FORM OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN AZ WITH THIS SETUP, WITH NAEFS/ENS MEAN ZONAL WINDS
NEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM VALUES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT
THE 850 MB (30-45 KTS) AND 700 MB (20-35 KTS) LEVELS. THE EASTERLY
JET WILL REACH PEACH INTENSITY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND SO MUCH OF THE POPULATED VALLEYS/LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE SPARED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS, BUT ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES SUNDAY, SOME OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
WILL START MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TERRAIN AND PROMINENT
RIDGETOPS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS
UP TO 50-55 MPH, WITH DOWNSTREAM FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT LOWER
DESERTS FORECAST TO RECEIVE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40-45 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, DAYTIME GUSTS TO 20-35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. THE EASTERLY JET WILL DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY, AND SO WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE UNUSUALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE A WARMING TREND AS POSITIVE MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED,
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LATEST NBM STILL ADVERTISING NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POPULATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
HOWEVER, HREF PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32F
REMAIN BELOW 20%, EVEN IN THOSE MORE COLD-PRONE AREAS. FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY NORMALS,
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAXIMIZE DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS WHEN WE'RE FORECASTING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADDITIONALLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE ON THE RISE, GOING FROM THE 40S
(30S) ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS) TO START
THE WORKWEEK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (LOW TO MID 40S) TO END
THE WORKWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN AN E TO NE COMPONENT. WIND
SPEEDS AT KPHX WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 10 KTS THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD, WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS HOVERING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OUTSIDE
OF THE GUSTY PERIODS. AS MENTIONED, SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS,
NOTABLY HIGHER AT KPHX AND KIWA THAN THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. THESE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING HOURS (~00-01Z).
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AT EACH TERMINAL WILL FAVOR A N/NW.
SPEEDS AT KIPL SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WHILE KBLH CAN EXPECTED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AROUND 07-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND BACK INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
COMING WEEK. MINRH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO A 15-35% RANGE AND
WILL REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK, WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-70%. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS, ESPECIALLY RIDGETOPS, WHERE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY PREVAILING DIRECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ552-558.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ547-555-557-
561-562.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITTOCK
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK/BERISLAVICH
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