994
FXUS65 KPSR 051111
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
411 AM MST FRI JUN 5 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE RETREATING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN COMMUNITIES OF ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS COME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, BUT STILL APPEARS QUITE COMPLEX THANKS TO A
PLETHORA OF WEATHER REGIMES OVER AND AROUND THE CONUS. THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS UNDER A MICROCOSM OF THIS GREATER PATTERN, AS
MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FLANK THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH, WHILE FLAT RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF
THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING
IN INCREASING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE FRONT HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WILL FURTHER SQUEEZE THE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY, ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30-35 MPH, MAINLY FOR PARTS OF SW AZ
AND SE CA, THOUGH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION CAN STILL EXPECTED
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH. THESE STRONGER GUSTS, COMBINED WITH
REGIONAL RH VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO 10% AND VERY DRY FUELS, WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED, TO LOCALLY CRITICAL, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. IN TURN, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
SATURDAY OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE THAT WILL OBSERVE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS. ONCE THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY, BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE REGIONAL HEIGHT FIELD IS STILL LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FRONT PART OF JUNE, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH, BUT NOTHING COMPLETELY ABNORMAL.
EVEN WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN RELATIVE PROXIMITY, A FEW
LOCATIONS ALMOST REACHED THE 110F MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME, OWING TO
THE LONGER DAYLIGHT HOURS AND STRONG/DIRECT INSOLATION. THANKFULLY,
IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL KEEP THE 110S AT BAY FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER AS TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE THE REGION IN THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER, TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE LOWER DESERT
WITH THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGHS RANGE BETWEEN 103-109F. HEIGHTS ALOFT CLOSER TO NORMAL
WILL HELP "COOL" WEEKEND TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT VALUES BETWEEN 100-
107 WILL BE COMMON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IT APPEARS THAT ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO FURTHER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
REINFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS FOLLOW-ON SYSTEM WILL
NOT PROVIDE ANY MOISTURE FLUX TO THE REGION, BUT WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
IS A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCY REMAINS, MAINLY ABOUT STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE DISTURBANCE, SO WIND FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTS DAILY AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH STRETCH INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALSO CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONIC
PATTERN WILL NOT DO MUCH TO BUDGE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AS CURRENT NBM FORECASTS HAVE STEADY READINGS BETWEEN
98-105 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE WIND
FORECAST, MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGES, EITHER UP OR DOWN, MAY COME TO
FRUITION DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1100Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH EASTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.
SPEEDS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS BEFORE INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS PEAKING AT 20-25 KTS. OTHER
THAN SOME HIGH-BASED CU EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE WESTERLY SHIFT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8-15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SW ARIZONA AND
AREAS AROUND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DRY FUELS, RHS AROUND 10%, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, RESULTING IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY, DAILY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. MINRHS WILL HOLD STEADY
CLOSE TO 10% ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY
OFFER POOR TO MODEST RECOVERY, WITH MAXRHS NEAR 15-45%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ231.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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