398  
FXUS65 KPSR 160540  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
1040 PM MST SAT JUN 15 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER FAIRLY NEAR SEASONAL  
NORMALS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL  
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY  
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, OCCASIONALLY BREEZY DAYS AND CLEAR  
NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN REVEALS DRY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION JUST WEST OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXITING  
TO THE EAST, AND DOWNSTREAM OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS. WITH  
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN  
TOP OUT VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
A DRY FLOW PATTERN FROM THE WEST WITH ENOUGH TROUGHING TO KEEP  
HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS  
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES  
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGHS WILL  
HOVER RELATIVELY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS, OR AROUND 104 TO 106  
DEGREES. ON SUNDAY A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST. THEN ON MONDAY A DRY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE KICKS OUT  
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROF AND PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
AFTERNOONS AND A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUD DECKS PASSING THROUGH FROM  
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
A NE PAC RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS SOUTH TO BUILD LATERALLY INTO N CA AND  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALLOWING THE BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH TO  
DIG SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OFFSHORE BAJA AND CUT OFF.  
 
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE CUTOFF LOW  
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN  
STATES GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO BROAD WESTERN STATE TROUGHING.  
HOWEVER THE CURRENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD VARIES ON THE DEGREE  
OF TROUGHING AND RANGE FROM WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH. IN ANY  
CASE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS  
WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TIGHTENING  
GRADIENT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE PFJ ACROSS THE  
WESTERN STATES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
UPDATED AT 0540 UTC.  
 
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND  
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
 
WINDS AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS LOOK TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL  
PATTERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT  
TIMES. SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH  
A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 12 KFT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL  
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMOKE FROM THE WOODBURY  
FIRE COULD CAUSE SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT AT KPHX,  
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. WINDS IN SE CALIFORNIA  
WILL FAVOR A S/SE DIRECTION WITH A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS AT  
KIPL THIS EVENING.  
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
A SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE  
PERIOD AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. MIN RH NEAR 7-11  
PERCENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY  
FOR THE SECOND HALF BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY EXPECT BREEZY TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 18-25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS  
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT  
RECOVERIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL IMPROVE TO FAIR FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IMPERIAL VALLEY, THE YUMA  
AREA AND HILLTOP WHERE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SAWTELLE  
AVIATION...SMITH  
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page