556
FXUS65 KPSR 162323
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
423 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
UPDATE
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH NORTHERLY MERIDIONAL FLOW
STRETCHING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ALOFT AT THIS TIME ARE
COMPARABLE, AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER, TO HEIGHTS THAT WERE
OBSERVED THIS TIME MONDAY. TYPICALLY, THIS WOULD YIELD SIMILAR
SURFACE TEMPS TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY WHEN DAILY RECORD
HIGHS WERE BEING EXCEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, DAY-TO-DAY
MAXTS WILL ACTUALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES, LIKELY DUE TO A TIME LAG
FROM SHALLOWER HEIGHTS THAT WERE SEEN WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE,
POOR MIXING, AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. NONETHELESS,
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THEIR WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
RUN AS READINGS RANGE 8-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
DECEMBER, WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE WILL
FAVOR MORE WESTERN DESERT AREAS OF SE CALIFORNIA, WHERE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL REACH CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE DUE TO THEIR
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. FORECAST
CONDITIONS WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WILL STAY THE DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CENTER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 585-587DM
EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS PEAK IN HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NBM SHOWING HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN
78-81 DEGREES. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES SHOULD THEN SEND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND LOWER HEIGHTS MORE INTO A
582-584DM RANGE ON SATURDAY. THIS BACK AND FORTH OF SLIGHTLY
RISING AND LOWERING OF HEIGHTS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY SHOWING ANOTHER TEMPORARY BUMP IN HEIGHTS.
OVERALL, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO LAST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS
STAYING NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WE SHOULD FINALLY GET A PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVING
TO OVER TEXAS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ALSO BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING IS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR THE DAY AFTER. THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE WARMER SIDE RESULTING IN HIGH
SNOW LEVELS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2322Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE EAST BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE
SOUTHEAST CA TERMINALS, WINDS AT KIPL WILL BE PRIMARILY WESTERLY
WITH AN EASTERLY SHIFT BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE KBLH SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO NNW THIS EVENING WITH
PERIODS OF VRB BEING COMMON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALL WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS. WINDS WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT AND FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL PATTERNS. MINRHS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25% WHILE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIR UP TO 40-70%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO/KUHLMAN
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