522
FXUS65 KPSR 190959
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
259 AM MST FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH AROUND MONDAY UNDER
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW DAYS.
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT
RISK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SITUATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST HAS
EDGED ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION TO SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
THAT HELPED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THIS WEEK. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND HAS ALREADY DROPPED SURFACE
DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FALLING TO BELOW 10%
THIS WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY, THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS ALOFT WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND THE LOWER
HEIGHTS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY DIPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE HEATRISK ACROSS THE AREA WILL DROP
FULLY INTO THE MINOR CATEGORY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO OUR
NORTHEAST STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY, MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS THE HIGH CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 595DM. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE STARTING MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AS WARM AS 110 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
MODELS ALSO MOSTLY SUGGEST THE HIGH CENTER SETTING UP OVER OR NEAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING TUESDAY AND STAYING IN THAT GENERAL
VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS POSITIONING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MODEST GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT
WEEK WITH FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
INTO THE 40S TO MAYBE THE MID 50S. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE MODEST
INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IT WILL FALL SHORT OF WHAT WOULD
BE NEEDED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO FORM. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH CENTER AND ITS STRENGTH WILL KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE QUITE STRONG
NEXT WEEK, BASICALLY KEEPING A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE PEAKING AT AROUND 596-598DM NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BREAK 110
DEGREES BOTH DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING 115
DEGREES. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK FOR AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUIDANCE THEN
FAVORS ANOTHER TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH BY NEXT FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, LIKELY DAMPENING THE RIDGE AND STARTING A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0900Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY WEATHER FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE REGARDING THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF EAST WINDS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT. SOME LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS 15-20KT LOOK PROBABLE, BUT MAY NOT BE
AS PRONOUNCED OR PERSISTENT AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BEFORE RELAXING,
AND EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A W/SW
COMPONENT WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KIPL, HOWEVER A FEW HOURS OF LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VARIABILITY MAY OCCUR. AT KBLH,
DIRECTIONS SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN SE AND SW. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE LIKELY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE OF PERIODIC GUSTS NEAR 30KT AT KIPL THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, ENOUGH
SO TO END ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITHIN THE
NORMAL RANGE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE AT
LEAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY, OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
WILL FALL INTO A POOR TO FAIR 20-40% RANGE. UPSLOPE AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MARKEDLY WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 10-15% AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
YIELDING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO/18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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