315
FXUS65 KPSR 171731
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST FRI JUL 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL MONSOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN FAVOR THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
MAINTAINS NEAR NORMAL READINGS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAKENING MCS IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE PHOENIX FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING UNDER
0.25" HOUR. A POCKET OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER REMAINS FARTHER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN PHOENIX AND FLAGSTAFF.
DESPITE THE MODEST ASCENT STILL IN PLACE, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
LESS AND LESS UNSTABLE. HI-RES CAMS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PHOENIX THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. WE ARE
EXPECTING TO ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 12Z EVEN THOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE
LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THAT IS
LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO START TO WORK INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND
THEN CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARIZONA SHOULD TOP 100 DEGREES UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
GUIDANCE IS FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE DRYING SHOULD EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT SATURDAY WILL BE AN OVERALL
QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
SURVIVING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS IS NO MORE THAN 10%. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PHOENIX AREA, BUT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL HUMIDITIES WILL STILL MAKE
IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL UNDERGO
SOME WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS IT FINALLY
DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OVERALL QUIET DAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE
LIMITED, BUT WITH INCREASING HIGHER LEVEL ASCENT ANY CONVECTION THAT
BUILDS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST. SOME
GUIDANCE IS EVEN HINTING AT PUSHING SOME RAIN INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AT SOME POINT SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE EASTERLY WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SPREADING OVER
THE REGION AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR LOWER DESERT CONVECTION TO OCCUR ON MONDAY IS STILL
UNKNOWN, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY AT LEAST ONE DAY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON DAY. WE MAY EVEN HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE WIND THREAT BY AROUND TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT FOR LONGER
LASTING STORMS AND/OR MCS DEVELOPING AND MAKING IT OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. OF COURSE, THIS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERLY WAVE. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE EVENTUALLY MOVING TO OUR WEST BY NEXT THURSDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FAVORED TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
NEW MEXICO OR TEXAS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE HIGH
SETS UP, WE MAY BE IN FOR ANOTHER DRIER AND HOT MONSOON PERIOD BY
NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR AT LEAST A DOWNTREND IN RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK OR BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD NEXT WEEK, BUT
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
WESTERN LOWER DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE NORMAL RANGE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. IF THE RIDGE DOES EVENTUALLY SET UP JUST TO OUR EAST, WE
MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING 110 DEGREES AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHRA,
LOWERING CIGS, AND VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS IMPACTING OPERATIONS.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
CLEARING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR VSBY AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
AFFECT TERMINALS WITH ANY SHRA DIRECTLY MOVING OVER THE AIRFIELD.
WHILE EAST WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED INITIALLY, DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME
HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST CONVINCING
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF ANY DIRECTIONAL CHANGE AND EXACT HEADING CARRY
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERWHELMINGLY
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME. THUS, HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY VCSH/SHRA
YET, HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
FREQUENT MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS IS ONLY MODERATE
WITH A SE COMPONENT PREFERRED AT KIPL AND SOUTH AT KBLH. KIPL
DIRECTIONS MAY TURN SW AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
TSRA OVER BAJA, MEXICO. DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY MAY BECOME COMMON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ARIZONA
DISTRICTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES INTO WESTERN
DISTRICTS. ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRYING BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH
LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL KEEP MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM 30% IN WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 40-50%
OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL DROP MINRHS TO 20-35% WITH ANY WETTING RAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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