755
FXUS65 KPSR 131047
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
REX BLOCKING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A HIGH
PRESSURE STRADDLING THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS UP AROUND
20 MPH) IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE JET THAT BROUGHT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND SUNDAY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
(SANTA ANA WINDS) OVER SOUTHERN CA, JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING TO H5 HEIGHTS RISING FROM A CURRENT
578-580 DM RANGE TO A 581-584 DM RANGE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TOMORROW, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED FOR TOMORROW ARE AROUND 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE
DAILY RECORDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR REGION, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF THE WESTERN
CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN (WHETHER IT BE A REX OR OMEGA BLOCK) WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL (6-10 DEGREES) CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE DURING THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK, COINCIDING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY INTO THE NW COASTLINE OR
NORTHEAST PACIFIC, HOWEVER RIDGING WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR
REGION, WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF POTENTIAL COOLING DUE TO THE
RELAXATION OF H5 HEIGHTS. WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1100Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH A LATER THAN NORMAL WESTERLY SHIFT ANTICIPATED AT KPHX BY
22Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER RISKS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NEAR
PERSISTENCE WIND CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A N-NW COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS AOB 6 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, GOING WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
AND MAXIMIZING DURING THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SLIGHT COOLING OF A
FEW DEGREES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. MINRH VALUES OF 15-30% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF
40-70% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WEEKEND
MINRH WILL DROP TO 15-25% WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 30-60%.
WIND SPEEDS RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY PREVAILING DIRECTION THIS WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS AND A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH/18
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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