398
FXUS65 KPSR 160540
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1040 PM MST SAT JUN 15 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER FAIRLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, OCCASIONALLY BREEZY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN REVEALS DRY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION JUST WEST OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXITING
TO THE EAST, AND DOWNSTREAM OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS. WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN
TOP OUT VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
A DRY FLOW PATTERN FROM THE WEST WITH ENOUGH TROUGHING TO KEEP
HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGHS WILL
HOVER RELATIVELY NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS, OR AROUND 104 TO 106
DEGREES. ON SUNDAY A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THEN ON MONDAY A DRY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE KICKS OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROF AND PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS AND A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUD DECKS PASSING THROUGH FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A NE PAC RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS SOUTH TO BUILD LATERALLY INTO N CA AND
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALLOWING THE BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH TO
DIG SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OFFSHORE BAJA AND CUT OFF.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO BROAD WESTERN STATE TROUGHING.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD VARIES ON THE DEGREE
OF TROUGHING AND RANGE FROM WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH. IN ANY
CASE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE PFJ ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540 UTC.
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS AT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS LOOK TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 12 KFT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMOKE FROM THE WOODBURY
FIRE COULD CAUSE SOME SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT AT KPHX,
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. WINDS IN SE CALIFORNIA
WILL FAVOR A S/SE DIRECTION WITH A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS AT
KIPL THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. MIN RH NEAR 7-11
PERCENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY
FOR THE SECOND HALF BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EXPECT BREEZY TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 18-25 MPH. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL IMPROVE TO FAIR FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IMPERIAL VALLEY, THE YUMA
AREA AND HILLTOP WHERE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAWTELLE
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE
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