343
FXUS65 KPSR 102015
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 PM MST FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WHILE WINDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
- A COUPLE SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW THIS MORNING, WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING TO THE WEST, CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEGRADE AS IT
TRAVERSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
WHILE THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH IT WILL HELP
INCREASE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW 90S WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S.
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THIS INITIAL TROUGHING FEATURE IS A SECOND,
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG THE NW COAST. THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
AGAIN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WILL TO OUR REGION'S NORTH,
HOWEVER WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IT WILL NOT DEGRADE AS
QUICKLY AS THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE NOTABLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
MEANWHILE IN THE PHOENIX METRO WINDS WONT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
ALONG WITH BOTH OF THESE TROUGHING SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WITH PWATS ALREADY INCREASED TODAY TO NEAR 150% OF NORMAL.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM DEGRADES OVER LAND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM CAN REINTRODUCE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. POPS CONTINUE TO STAY FAIRLY LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE REGION AT OR BELOW A 10% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER NEVADA ON SUNDAY, A
THIRD SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE LEFTOVER
NEVADA SHORTWAVE ENERGY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS
COMBINED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF
ARIZONA LATER ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES
AS SOME MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NBM POPS ARE A
BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL
AT MOST 10-20% IN THE PHOENIX AREA TO 25-40% OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD PROVIDE
LITTLE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BRING OUR COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, OR 6-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR RURAL AREAS
TO AS COOL AS 50 DEGREES WITHIN THE PHOENIX METRO. STARTING TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL
DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INITIAL SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
SETTLE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WIND DIRECTIONS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
ISSUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID/HIGH
CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY
DIRECTIONS (140V220) WILL BE LIKELY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS AROUND 15KT. THE NOCTURNAL SWITCH TO
EASTERLY MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, OR LOCALLY NOT OCCUR AT
ALL RESULTING IN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY
AT KIPL THIS EVENING UNDER PERIODS OF THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS.
WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A W/SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
MOST PRONOUNCED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT GUSTS 20-30KT WILL BE COMMON WITH KIPL POTENTIALLY PEAKING
OVER 30KT AT TIMES THIS EVENING. LOFTED DUST AND SLANTWISE VSBY
ISSUES MAY ARISE THIS EVENING, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SFC
VSBY WOULD BE AFFECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
COME FROM AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS. MINRHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 10-20% BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND PEAKING ON MONDAY AT 25- 35% THEN RETURNING MOSTLY
BETWEEN 15-20% TUESDAY. AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH QUITE COMMON ON
SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LOWER RHS TODAY AND EVEN SATURDAY, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ
ON MONDAY, BUT CWR WILL REMAIN LOW <10%. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE BACK OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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