139
FXUS65 KPSR 071753
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1053 AM MST THU MAY 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY.
- EXPECT LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100 DEGREES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.,
INCLUDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ENTAILING THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS NO MOISTURE
LEFT TO EVEN PRODUCE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE NEAR PROXIMITY OF
THE CLOSED LOW, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY TAKING OVER ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING TOWARD
580DM. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS TODAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YESTERDAY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS TO THE MID 90S IN THE PHOENIX
AREA. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY ON
FRIDAY, H5 HEIGHTS OF 581-583DM SHOULD BE REALIZED LEADING TO
DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 101-104 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK STARTING FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS RIDGING FULLY TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STARTING
SATURDAY, THE STRONGER PARENT RIDGE WILL BE NEARING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS
TIME REACHING 585-588DM ON SUNDAY BEFORE PEAKING AS HIGH AS
589-591DM MONDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WOULD FALL AROUND
97-99% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS FOR THE PERIOD LIKELY PUSHING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORDS.
THE LATEST NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY.
SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105-108 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 103-106 DEGREES IN
THE PHOENIX AREA. AS PEAK HEIGHTS OCCUR ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 108-110 DEGREES OUT WEST TO 106-108
DEGREES IN PHOENIX. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS WOULD EASILY
RESULT IN DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE MAJOR HEATRISK
CATEGORY, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD (MINOR HEATRISK).
AS A RESULT, THE TOTAL HEATRISK MOSTLY FALLS WITHIN THE (HIGH-END)
MODERATE CATEGORY BUT WITH SOME LOCALIZED MAJOR AREAS SHOWING UP
ON MONDAY. CONSIDERING SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WE ARE
STILL HOLDING OFF ON ANY EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES. HOWEVER, ANY
FURTHER BOOST IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO PUT IT OVER
OUR TYPICAL THRESHOLD FOR A WATCH. EITHER WAY, THIS NEXT HEAT
EVENT WILL BE AT LEAST ON PAR WITH THE MID MARCH EVENT BUT MORE
LIKELY EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES HOTTER. MODELS THEN MOSTLY FAVOR A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEST
OF BAJA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW COOLING TREND STARTING NEXT TUESDAY, BUT
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1748Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PERIODS OF VRB TO CALM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING,
WINDS AT KIPL WILL BE BETWEEN W AND NNW, WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL
BE PRIMARILY WESTERLY, AND SLOWLY SHIFTING SSW NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LOW RHS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
REACH WELL INTO THE 90S TODAY BEFORE TOPPING 100 DEGREES BY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. EXPECT MINRHS FROM 7-12% EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
IS LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY LOW RHS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOCUSED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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