709
FXUS65 KPSR 221045
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT BEFORE MODEST COOLING ARRIVES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS EXCELLENT
THAT H5 READINGS NEAR 576DM WILL INCREASE INTO A 580-582DM RANGE
FORCING A MODEST WARMING TREND. WITH NARROW SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IS EXCELLENT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH 2F-4F
ABOVE NORMAL RESULTING IN THE WARMEST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS JUST
TOUCHING 100F. THIS IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, AS IS DRY AND VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MODEST
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE SW CONUS AS STRONG TROUGHING ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW AND
GREAT BASIN COMBINES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
JET PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST MEXICO. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DEEPLY MERIDIONAL FLOW SHOULD IMPORT MARGINALLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO MORE THAN 5 G/KG WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBTROPICAL JET ARE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS ROBUST JET FORCED ASCENT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THE COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED, DEEP MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY, THOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION
WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
VERSUS ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. ASSUMING THIS EVOLUTION COME TO
FRUITION, THE GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE WILDFIRE STARTS IN REMOTE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE. RECENT GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL ITERATIONS HAVE SIDED
MORE TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A SLOW
MOVING, CLOSED CIRCULATION HOVERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GEFS MEMBERS ARE SURPRISINGLY FAR MORE
DISPERSIVE THAN THEIR CMC COUNTERPARTS WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING A
FAR LESS INTENSE AND LESS CUTOFF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. GIVEN THE
PREFERENCE TOWARDS A BLOCKING PATTERN, WOULD FAVOR THE SLOWER, MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION OUTCOME IN THIS FORECAST WHICH WOULD BE MORE APT
TO YIELD AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS, ALBEIT WITH MORE IMPACTFUL SPEEDS
RELEGATED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THAT SAID, IT WOULD NOT BE UNEXPECTED
TO SEE FUTURE AUTOMATED NBM/WPC MANDATED FORECASTS ADVERTISE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME ONCE THESE ENSEMBLE
BLENDS CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR PATTERN.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1045Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 7-12 KTS WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO A 10-20% RANGE WITH
POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 20-40% IMPROVING SOMEWHAT NEXT
WEEK. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY, AND WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL, THE THREAT FOR
NEW WILDFIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE HEIGHTENED. THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SPRING UPSLOPE GUSTINESS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED GUSTS OVER
EASTERN DISTRICT HIGH TERRAIN AND THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page