820
FXUS65 KREV 211900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A SLOW MOVING STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
* COOL, BUT MAINLY DRY, FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN MAY RETURN BY THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL THE RADAR RETURNS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO FILL THE SKIES OVER THE SIERRA TODAY. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, MANY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA WILL BE
SEEING RAINDROPS.
TODAY->THURSDAY: STORMY DAYS
* RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS: AN AMPLE MOISTURE PLUME IS ARRIVING TODAY,
WHICH IS WHY WPC HAS A 5% RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING FROM AROUND RENO/FALLON TO THE SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
50-80% CHANCE OF UP TO 0.25" OF PRECIPITATION. BANDS OF SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE TO THE SIERRA, THEN THE TAHOE BASIN, WORKING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WESTERN NEVADA, THEN EVENTUALLY SPILLING
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF I-80. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO 1"
IS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY TRIGGER FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AND OVER BURN SCARS. THROUGH THIS EVENING, A RANGE OF 0.50-1.25"
OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SIERRA AND LEESIDE SIERRA FOOTHILLS. THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS RENO/FERNLEY/CARSON CITY/SMITH
VALLEY, WHILE EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" WILL FALL OVER
FALLON/YERINGTON/HAWTHORNE. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE SIERRA WILL RANGE
0.5-1.25" WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA
AND NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER, ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
(EXCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN), OVER TO THE EAST TO CHURCHILL
COUNTY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY AND TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF MONO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK
AT 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 15-20% FOR THURSDAY.
* HIGH ELEVATION SNOW: SNOW LEVELS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
8500 FEET UNTIL NIGHTFALL, WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 8000
FEET, BRINGING SNOW TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL BY THURSDAY MORNING TO AROUND 7500 FEET, THEN FURTHER
FALL BELOW 7000 FEET FOR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY AS THE MOISTURE
LIFTS TO THE NORTH. FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM, A 70% CHANCE
FOR 2" OF SNOW, AND A 25% CHANCE FOR 4" OF SNOW EXISTS FOR
LOCATIONS ABOVE 8000 FT. THERE MAY BE TOTALS AS HIGH AS 10", BUT
THOSE TOTALS WILL ONLY BE FOUND ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. ANY ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY BE FOUND ON THE HIGHER PASSES
(EBBETTS, TIOGA, SONORA). US-395 MAY SEE SOME SNOW FLYING
THROUGH THE AIR, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOST
ELEVATED STRETCHES AND TOTALS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1" OF SNOW.
* TEMPERATURES AND WINDS: THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING WITH IT SOME
COOLER AIR THAT WILL BRING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 50S
AND LOW-60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID-40S TO LOW-50S FOR THE
SIERRA. BRISK W-NW WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR, WITH GUSTS
25-35+ MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF US-50 BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
* PREPARE, STAY AWARE AHEAD OF TRAVEL: PREPARE YOUR HOME BY
CHECKING THE GUTTERS AND DRAINS AND CLEARING THEM IF YOU HAVE
NOT ALREADY DONE SO. MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, SINCE THE ROADS WILL BE WET IN MANY AREAS, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SLOWER COMMUTE TIMES.
FRIDAY & BEYOND
* FRIDAY-SUNDAY: WE DRY OUT AND REMAIN COOL INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW-60S LINGERING OVER LOWER VALLEYS, AND THE
MID-40S TO LOW-50S HOLDING STEADY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE
SIERRA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TOO, WITH THE COLDEST
LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SIERRA.
* NEXT WEEK & MORE: NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
THEN, TAKING A LOOK INTO LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS REVEALS A WET
PATTERN MAY BE WITH US THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER AND INTO
NOVEMBER. HRICH
AVIATION
* WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS STARTING AROUND
21/22Z TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PEAK AT 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 15-20% FOR
THURSDAY.
* WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
HEAVIER THUNDERSHOWERS MAY TRIGGER BRIEF GUSTS TO 30+ KTS. A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING W-NW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KRNO/KTRK. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ073.
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