253
FXUS65 KREV 192028
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
128 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST.
* LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MINERAL COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN SIERRA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AND DRY ELSEWHERE.
* INCREASED WINDS WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FAVORED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CWA UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
BETWEEN A LOW OVER ID/WY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH. BY SUNDAY, THE
PACIFIC TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW AND MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
CA SHORE DURING THE DAY. WITH THIS SETUP ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING UP. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES GUSTING UP TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
SEEN AT THE SIERRA CREST WHERE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST TO
NORTHEAST GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL, SMOKE FROM THE
DOME FIRE IS SEEN MOVING BACK INTO MONO COUNTY TOMORROW THAT COULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREATER TAHOE REGION. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS AT THE SIERRA CREST COULD LIMIT SMOKE INFILTRATING INTO THE
CWA, THOSE WITH INCREASED SENSITIVITY TO POOR AIR QUALITY MAY
WANT TO MONITOR THE AIR QUALITY IN THEIR LOCATION JUST TO BE SAFE.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN PROJECTS THE WESTERN LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
NV ON TUESDAY. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE GOING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE IS
GIVING MINERAL COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA A ~15-35% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A ~10%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SAME TIME STRETCHING INTO
THE TAHOE REGION. QPF PROJECTIONS ARE RANGING UP TO AROUND A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AT THE HIGHEST SIERRA ELEVATIONS. SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, BUT CHANCES ARE ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW (<10%). ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTY SEEING A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST WHILE
SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL BE IN THE 70S. EXTENDED GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY AND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SIGNALS TEMPERATURES TO TREND COOLER
DURING THIS TIME WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND A POSSIBLE RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS THERE IS STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT, PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR UPDATES AS THEY BECOME
AVAILABLE. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR KTRK BETWEEN
11-16Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY
WITHIN THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODELS SHOW E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 25 KTS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MINOR MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CONCERNS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA. AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO MINERAL COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN SIERRA ON MONDAY. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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