551
FXUS65 KREV 140851
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
151 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES HEAT UP FURTHER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD.
* BY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A HEATWAVE WILL INDUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK CONCERNS.
* LATER THIS WEEK A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE OVERHEAD TROUGHING
PAIRED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGH
RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS EXIST
WITH ANY STORMS THAT POP OFF: LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. ENSURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO
RECEIVE ALERTS IF YOU ARE OUT AND ABOUT TODAY! AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RATCHET UP THROUGH THE WEEK, PLAN ON DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FINALLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENACT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 90F
AND 100F FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND LOWER NE CA/W NV VALLEYS,
RESPECTIVELY, BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY. PLAN ON WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK WITH MAJOR HEATRISK CREEPING INTO W NEVADA
VALLEYS. A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HIGHER HEATRISK WILL BE THE WARMER
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS THE LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE UPCOMING HEAT! BEAT THE
HEAT BY STAYING HYDRATED, AVOIDING THE OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST
PARTS OF THE DAY, AND WEARING COOL, LIGHT CLOTHES. THE QUICK HEAT
UP WILL ALLOW FOR OUR LATE DAY WESTERLY, ZEPHYR WINDS TO RETURN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. MORE DETAILS ON WINDS IN THE FIRE SECTION.
DON'T FRET IF YOU'RE NOT READY FOR THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT! THERE IS
RELIEF IN SIGHT AS SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE PATTERN
CHANGE INVOLVING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER
THIS WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING OUT THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOME CONSEQUENCES, INCLUDING,
BUT NOT LIMITED TO INCREASED BREEZES, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
-EDAN
AVIATION
PLAN ON ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS. FOR KMMH, THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WITHIN 10 MILES, WHILE CHANCES FOR
KTRK/KTVL WILL BE AROUND 15%. EXPECT GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORM. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS. NEVADA TERMINALS WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THE DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
-EDAN
FIRE WEATHER
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY
WARM RESULTING IN POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN THE
VALLEYS AND MIDSLOPE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK,
RAISING LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.
WHILE WINDS AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO DEVIATE MUCH STRONGER THAN OUR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES DURING THIS HOT/DRY PERIOD, TUESDAY STANDS
OUT AS HAVING THE STRONGEST BREEZES FROM E LASSEN COUNTY INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA. A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WIND/RH MAY
UNFOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
A CRITICAL RIDGE BREAKDOWN TAKES PLACE AFTER WEDNESDAY, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS/STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT AND VERY DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS
WEEK, VEGETATION WILL HAVE HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT, EXACERBATING
THE POTENTIAL FIRE THREAT LATE THIS WEEK.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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