785
FXUS65 KREV 120918
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
218 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY, BRINGING WETTER STORMS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
* STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MINERAL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
YESTERDAY ENDED UP BEING A HOT ONE OUT THERE BEFORE THE CLOUD
DECK ROLLED IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NV RANGED FROM
100-106F, JUST AS ANTICIPATED. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL BE WARMER
THAN USUAL AND PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF, SO WE'RE KEEPING THE HEAT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR PERSHING, CHURCHILL, LYON,
AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE WE DID HAVE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THERE WERE A FEW MORE FIRES THAT BROKE
OUT YESTERDAY. MOST NOTABLY IS THE ELEPHANT FIRE, WHICH IS BURNING
OVER THE OLD LOYALTON FIRE BURN SCAR FROM 2020. THIS MORNING,
SMOKE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTH VALLEYS AND SPANISH SPRINGS
AREAS, BUT NOT QUITE INTO THE DOWNTOWN RENO/SPARKS AREA. IF YOU'RE
IN THOSE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND HAVE AN AIR PURIFIER, YOU MIGHT
WANT TO BRING IT OUT OF THE CLOSET IF YOU'RE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE.
AS PER THE HRRR, SMOKE MAY SETTLE INTO RENO LATER THIS MORNING AND
CAUSE SOME HAZINESS AFTER SUNRISE.
LATER TODAY, LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA AS OUR MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE KICKS OFF. RHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 20-40%,
EVEN UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. QPF TOTALS TODAY ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.1", THOUGH SOME SPOTS IN THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE
SOUTHWARD MAY GET UP TO 0.2". SINCE STORMS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH, WE MAY SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORM OVER MINERAL/LYON
COUNTIES AND PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS FROM THIS
COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 40- 55 MPH, AND MAY KICK UP SOME DUST.
THEN ON MONDAY, WESTERN NV IS ABLE TO GENERATE MORE POTENTIAL
ENERGY FROM AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MAIN CONCERNS
THEN SHIFT TO SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING IF STORMS START TO TRAIN. PWAT VALUES INCREASE FROM
0.5-0.6" ON SUNDAY TO 0.9-1.1" ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF I-80, THOUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTH OF I-80 CAN SEE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. MUCH OF THE SAME ACTION ON TUESDAY
FOR ALL THE SAME AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. LONG
RANGE MODELS DIVERGE AROUND THIS TIME AND HAVE THE LOW OFF THE
COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IN DIFFERENT SPOTS. JUST A
DIFFERENCE OF A FEW HUNDRED MILES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
WE GET PRECIP OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE. WE'LL HAVE MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION AS THESE STORMS GET CLOSER IN TIME, BUT FOR NOW JUST
BE AWARE OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER HAZARDS EARLY THIS WEEK!
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SIERRA
BY 22Z TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT KMMH BETWEEN SUN
22Z-MON 03Z AND AT KTVL BETWEEN MON 00Z-03Z. CLOUD BASES TODAY
WILL HOVER AROUND 10-12 KFT, THOUGH POSSIBLY LOWER WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUST UP TO 15KT.
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
-EDAN/JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
A MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL USHER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST US. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STARTS
OUTSIDE OF WETTER RAIN CORES. QPF WILL BE LIGHT TODAY, WITH MOST
AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.1". SURFACE RHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
EXCEED 40% ACROSS WESTERN NV, EVEN WITH A SHOWER OVERHEAD. RHS MAY
GET A LITTLE HIGHER IN NE CA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT QPF WILL REMAIN
LOW.
STORMS WILL POSE LESS OF A FIRE RISK MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE, HIGHER QPF, AND SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ001-004.
CA...NONE.
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