141
FXUS65 KREV 242100
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
100 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND STREAM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SUSAN RIVER NEAR SUSANVILLE.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE THIS WEEK THOUGH
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WIND, RAIN, AND (HIGH ELEVATION) SNOW, OH MY! LET'S STEP THROUGH
THIS ONE BY ONE, SHALL WE? IT IS VERY WINDY OUT THERE TODAY, WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE RIDGES OF THE SIERRA TOPPING OUT
AROUND 100 MPH WHILE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG WASHOE VALLEY HAVE
GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH. TRAVEL, BOTH AIR AND GROUND, HAVE ALREADY
SEEN IMPACTS WITH INCREASED TURBULENCE, DELAYS, AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO DISPLACE
UNSUSPECTING TRASH CANS AND LIGHT PATIO FURNITURE.
WHAT ABOUT THE RAIN? LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS JUST NOW PUSHING
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN NE CA, THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STAGNANT
ALONG MUCH OF THE SIERRA AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN. AS SEEN BY THE
WIND, WE'RE RELATIVELY SHADOWED OUT HERE IN W NV. THAT IS MOSTLY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT OVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN WITH
THESE RAIN SHOWERS THOUGH COMES WITH THE INCREASED SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF. EXPECT PONDING ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE FOR
LOW-LYING AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON THE EXTENT OF RIVER RISES AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
SNOW, YOU SAID? I HATE TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS, BUT ONLY SO
MUCH SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 1-6" OF SNOW, MAINLY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY. THE WARMER NATURE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM HAS LET SNOW LEVELS SKYROCKET TO 9,500-10,500 FEET TODAY,
MEANING ONLY THE TIPPY TOPS OF THE SIERRA WILL SEE SNOW. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SWE AND SLRS, PLEASE SEE THE AVALANCHE SECTION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THIS TRANSLATES
TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND W NV
VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY. WHILE IT'LL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE
FEBRUARY STANDARDS, A SNEAKY HAZARD WE COULD SEE HERE IS INCREASED
SNOWMELT. JUST BECAUSE IT ISN'T RAINING DOESN'T MEAN THERE WON'T
BE CONCERNS FOR LINGERING HYDROLOGY IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIP LATE THIS WEEKEND (SUNDAY) FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN AND NORTHWARD, ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THAT SYSTEM, WE'LL HAVE
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN MODELS CAN RESOLVE SAID
SYSTEM BETTER.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, DWINDLING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES FOR SIERRA TERMINALS WILL BE
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER, MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS.
LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
TODAY. 700MB (FL100) WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 70-75KT OUT OF THE
WSW THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TODAY WITH TERMINALS EXPERIENCING GUSTS
UP TO 40KT. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING TURBULENCE, LLWS, AND
MORE, PLEASE VISIT AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV.
-GIRALTE/JUSTIN
AVALANCHE
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW LEVELS, TOTALS, AND RATES: SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM
9,500-10,500 FEET TODAY WITH THE TAHOE BASIN ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF THAT RANGE AND MONO COUNTY ON THE HIGHER SIDE. TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-6", PRIMARILY FOR PARTS OF BAC AND NORTHERN ESAC
TERRAIN. RATES AREN'T EXPECTED TO SURPASS 0.5"/HR.
* SWE AND SLRS: SWE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE TAHOE BASIN WITH
1-1.5" EXPECTED. SWE DECREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH WITH 0.4-0.6"
AROUND BAC TERRAIN AND UP TO 0.25" FOR ESAC TERRAIN. SLRS WILL
BE VERY LOW AT 2-6:1.
* RIDGETOP GUSTS: LOCALIZED WSW GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH TODAY,
DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO 50-60 MPH, OTHERWISE GUSTS OF 80-90 MPH.
TYPICAL RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-GIRALTE
HYDROLOGY
HIGH WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE RAIN ARE ALREADY
TAKING A TOLL ON THE SNOWPACK AND RESULTING IN RISES IN AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. RAW HOURLY SNOTEL DATA INDICATE RAIN WATER
MOVING THROUGH THE SNOWPACK AT MANY LOCATIONS, EVEN AT SOME
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. AS OF THIS WRITING, ONLY A FEW LOWER
ELEVATION SHALLOW SNOW SITES HAVE INDICATED ANY LOSS OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT.
SO FAR STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN MODERATE, BUT AN INDICATOR OF HOW
REACTIVE THE SNOWPACK AND WET SOILS ARE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT.
OUR PRIMARY FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN URBAN AREAS WHERE DEEP SNOW LARGE PLOW BERMS MAY BLOCK
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND FUNNEL RUNOFF INTO UNEXPECTED AREAS ALONG
WITH PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WHILE FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ALONG MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIMITED TO THE SUSAN
RIVER NEAR SUSANVILLE WHERE THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
THE WEST FORK OF THE CARSON NEAR WOODFORDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH, BUT NOT EXCEED, MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
CHECK FOR RIVER FORECAST UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT:
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV.
-TB
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072-073.
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