164
FXUS65 KREV 071954
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1254 PM PDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SIGNIFICANT HEAT WILL IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV,
WITH INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
* LIGHT HAZE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES LINGERS WITH INCREASING SMOKE
RETURNING TO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL CONTINUE OUR HOT AUGUST DAYS, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MOST SIERRA
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, PARTIALLY DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AFTER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DIMINISH. CONTINUE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF YOUR PLANS
INVOLVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING A MUCH NEEDED COOLING TREND
THAT LOWERS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MID-LATE
WEEK.
LIGHT HAZE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER,
ALTHOUGH A CHANGE IN WIND PATTERN ACROSS OREGON IS SET TO BRING
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SMOKE/HAZE TO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV
MAINLY FROM SUSANVILLE-GERLACH NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND.
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COMBINED WITH OUR CONTINUED HEAT, WILL SUPPORT A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE
EASTERN SIERRA OF MONO-ALPINE COUNTIES AROUND 1-2 PM, THEN DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA AND LYON-WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES MAINLY BETWEEN 3-7 PM.
WHILE COVERAGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, DRY LOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CLOUD BASES COULD SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF
40-50+ MPH. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO BRING A RISK OF NEW FIRE
IGNITIONS DUE TO THE PREVAILING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SATURDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED,
ALTHOUGH ONSET IS TRENDING A LITTLE SOONER WITH FIRST CELLS
BUILDING UP AROUND MIDDAY. COVERAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AS
OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS INTO EASTERN
LASSEN/N WASHOE COUNTY.
FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY, THE BEST STORM CHANCES RETREAT TO SOUTH OF
US-50 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO JUST THE SOUTHERN EDGES
OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES BY MONDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BECOMES DISPLACED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC
NW COAST. THIS TROUGH COULD BRING INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES AND
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAINLY FROM I-80 NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATER NEXT WEEK, BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE SHOWER
AND T-STORM PATTERN SPREADING NORTHWARD AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN CA-
WESTERN NV. ADVANCING MOISTURE MAY BE COMBINED WITH STRONGER
FORCING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST TO PROVIDE
INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
MJD
AVIATION
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
WESTERN NV TERMINALS SOUTHWARD TO KMMH MAINLY BETWEEN 21-03Z,
WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCE AT KTRK/KTVL. MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS INCLUDE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS, OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING, AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE STORM ACTIVITY, LIGHTER AFTERNOON SW-W BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT.
AFTERNOON WINDS THEN TREND UPWARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT LEAST 25 KT. MJD
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MINOR SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT HAZE, AND DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED HEAT. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ001-003-005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ004.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY CAZ070-071.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page