307
FXUS65 KREV 150714
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1214 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR MONO COUNTY.
* NEAR 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR W.NEVADA VALLEYS TUE-WED. MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK CONCERNS.
* A PATTERN CHANGE THURDAY-FRIDAY MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DUE TO INCREASED T-STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. COOLING EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RENEW FOR THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO
COUNTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG
WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG, RESULTING IN MAX OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TRACKS FURTHER INLAND,
WE WILL EXPERIENCE MORE OF A NE FLOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND W NV WILL REACH INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE WARM FOR THESE AREAS, INTO THE MID 60S, PROVIDING LIMITED
OVERNIGHT HEAT RELIEF. AS FOR OUR SIERRA COUNTERPARTS, HIGHS MAY
BREAK 90, MOST NOTABLY TRUCKEE AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF ALPINE AND
MONO COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NE CA (SUSANVILLE, NEAR HONEY LAKE,
ETC.). AS OF NOW, THE RECORD HIGH FOR SOUTH LAKE TAHOE ON TUESDAY
IS 88. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOUTH LAKE TOPPING OUT AT 89 THAT
SAME DAY. COULD WE HAVE A RECORD BREAKER ON OUR HANDS? OVERALL,
THIS EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
CONCERNS, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON HEATRISK, VISIT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES TUESDAY,
BRINGING A HANDFUL OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THE LARGER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, THOUGH,
COMES WITH AN EMERGING RIDGE BREAKDOWN PATTERN BY THURSDAY OF THIS
WEEK. WITH SAID PATTERN, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
HOWEVER, THE AREAS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY RANGE FROM I-80 AND
NORTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES NUDGE A BIT HIGHER,
FROM 300-600 J/KG. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS OF THIS PATTERN SHIFT, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KMMH TODAY WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING.
IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS. NEVADA TERMINALS WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THESE CONCERNS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
-GIRALTE/FUENTES
FIRE WEATHER
A STRETCH OF HOT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS RISE
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON RH DROPS INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OVER W
NV, ESPECIALLY IN THE BASIN AND RANGE.
WINDS STAY LIGHT TODAY, THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AS WESTERLY ZEPHYR
BREEZES RETURN, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH, INCREASING TO 30 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRONT AND FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
LOOKING AHEAD, A POTENTIAL RIDGE BREAKDOWN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, LIGHTNING IGNITIONS,
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
GUSTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER, AS WELL, INCREASING THE RISK
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STARTS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, VEGETATION WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING,
RAISING THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
-GIRALTE/FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
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