431
FXUS65 KREV 232154
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BUT AREA
WATERWAYS CONTINUE TO RUN DANGEROUSLY COLD AND SWIFT.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, POSING IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE AVIATION, RECREATION, AND FIRE IMPACTS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MATURING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM LASSEN
COUNTY TO THE OREGON BORDER, THE W NV BASIN AND RANGE, AND S MONO
COUNTY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY ALOFT RESIDES. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING INCREASES
INSTABILITY (ALBEIT STILL WEAK). UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THERE DOES SEEM
TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO THE
WEST AND MARGINAL SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROMOTE WEAK SYNOPTIC
ASCENT. WHILE THESE FEATURES WON'T BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS TODAY, THEY AT LEAST WON'T HINDER ITS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
THE USUAL HAZARDS (STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS/BLOWING DUST, LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN) FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WARM WEATHER PREVAILS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH
THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. KEEP IN MIND, MOUNTAIN LAKES,
RIVERS, AND CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING COLD AND SWIFT (WATER TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND 50S) SO BE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF NEAR
WATERWAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE W NV BASIN AND
RANGE, AND SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY DIRECT STORMS NORTHWARD INTO AREAS
OF W NV SOUTH OF I-80 -- INCLUDING THE GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN
AREA -- AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BE PREPARED FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SUNDAY IF PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
A STRONG, COMPACT PACIFIC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WIND IMPACTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50% OR GREATER) OF
35+ MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS LAKE RECREATION DUE
TO CHOPPY WATERS, BUMPY FLIGHTS, AND BLOWING DUST/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES NEAR SINKS AND PLAYAS IN W NEVADA. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY MONDAY (MORE
DETAILS BELOW). SIMILAR ODDS EXIST ON TUESDAY, BUT SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST.
THE CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/PELLET SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG
SIERRA PASSES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF
1+" ALONG TAHOE PASSES, AND 30-60% CHANCE OF 2+" ALONG MOUNTAIN
PASSES SOUTH OF TAHOE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHARPLY COOL AROUND
MIDWEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING FROM THE 70S AND 80S ON MONDAY TO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO DEPART
THE REGION, SO THE END OF NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING ON THE COOL AND WET
SIDE.
-SALAS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST E.SIERRA AND W.NEVADA TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KMMH AND KHTH COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-20%) WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AT KMMH WHICH
COULD YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL,
SUDDEN/STRONG WIND SHIFTS, AND LIGHTNING. FUENTES/SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE: A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY,
THE SURPRISE VALLEY, N WASHOE COUNTY, AND THE WESTERN HUMBOLDT
BASIN IN ANTICIPATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK.
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ON TRACK TO UNFOLD
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN LASSEN CO, THE SURPRISE VALLEY, AND
MUCH OF NW NEVADA WHERE GUSTY WINDS OVERLAP LOW HUMIDITIES. DURATION
OF CRITICAL WIND/RH IS TRENDING TOWARDS 4-8 HOURS IN LASSEN AND FAR
N WASHOE COUNTY WITH 2-4 HOURS IN PERSHING COUNTY.
FUELS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS CASE AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE CONTINUITY OF RECEPTIVE FUEL BEDS, BUT LOCAL INTEL FROM
DISPATCH CENTERS/GACC SUGGESTS THE CURED GRASSES AND SAGEBRUSH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF CARRYING FIRE IN VALLEYS/MIDSLOPES OF FAR NW NEVADA.
FARTHER SOUTH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT FUEL CONDITIONS AREN'T AS DRY PER LOCAL UNITS.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HUMIDITY RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ423-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
CAZ270-278.
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