435
FXUS65 KREV 251848
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1148 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY,
LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RECREATION
IMPACTS.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN MONO, S
LYON, MINERAL, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
* SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF MODERATE HEATRISK NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEKEND FEATURES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S., WITH A BELT OF
SW FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BECAUSE OF THAT SW
FLOW, WE'RE STILL ON THE EDGE OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY W/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SW/W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, THE GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA, SURPRISE VALLEY/NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, AND LASSEN/
EASTERN PLUMAS/EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CAN EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND 35 MPH SUNDAY. THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS,
COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (AS LOW AS 5-15%), WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10-15
MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS.
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY,
HIGHS IN LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS RENO, FALLON, AND HAWTHORNE
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100-102 DEGREES. MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES LIKE
LAKE TAHOE AND MAMMOTH LAKES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OFFER LIMITED RELIEF, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID-60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
VALLEYS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEXT WEEK. LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, WITH NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS REACHING 100-107 DEGREES
BY FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS RENO, FALLON, AND SURPRISE
VALLEY. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE INCREASING HEAT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
WARM, PROVIDING MINIMAL RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. MODERATE
HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY, AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z REV
SOUNDING (MUCAPE 175 J/KG, PWAT 0.64 INCHES), MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (10-20% POPS) ARE OVER MONO, S LYON,
MINERAL, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY, REDUCING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
10% OR LESS.
NEXT WEEK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE TYPICAL OF
AFTERNOON BREEZES COMPARED TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS OF THIS
WEEKEND, GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE, WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
FIRE AND RECREATION IMPACTS.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ONLY KHTH
HAVING A 20-25% CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, W/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY YIELD MINOR LLWS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY, WINDS EASE UP BY 5-10KT, BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZE, AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
-JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
SW/W WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL OVERLAP
WITH MINIMUM RHS OF 5-15% FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA, INCLUDING THE
BISCAR AND MACY FIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM PDT, BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER 12 PM PDT. NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES WILL BE MODERATE TO POOR IN THESE AREAS EACH NIGHT,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FIRES TO ACTIVELY BURN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN W
NV WHERE RH STRUGGLES TO EXCEED 20-30%.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL WIND/RH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS A SIMILAR AREA, BUT THE DURATION/COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED COMPARED TO TODAY. WE DID GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE OUR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY THOUGH, DUE TO THE
SHEER DRYNESS, EVEN WITH MARGINAL WINDS. A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE NEXT WEEK.
-SALAS/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ458.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ420-458.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ420.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ270-278.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY CAZ270-278.
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