055
FXUS65 KREV 040903
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
203 AM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY.
* A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH A POTENTIAL COOLING TREND AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVING
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TO BEGIN TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE CA
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL-ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WITH HIGHS BETWEEN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND BETWEEN THE
MID-70S AND LOWER 80S IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES. THE LATEST NBM RUN
PROJECTS A 65-75% CHANCE FOR THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
TO TIE THE OCTOBER 4TH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD DATA). NEAR-RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH KRNO
HAVING A 70-90% CHANCE OF TYING THOSE RECORDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SMOKE FROM
THE DOME FIRE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER,
SMOKE FROM BULL FIRE DOES NOT REALLY SHOW UP IN THE PRODUCT VERY
MUCH AS SMOKE GENERATION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY THE
ONGOING FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CONSULT AIRNOW.GOV
FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY UPDATES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU SENSITIVE
TO POOR AIR QUALITY.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS N CA AND INTO N NV. THIS
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE INTRODUCING LOW SHOWER
CHANCES (<10%) TO NE CA AND THE SIERRA THIS EVENING. BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND GOING INTO MONDAY, ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
UP TO ~20% AND SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA FRONT. THE RECENT RUNS OF
BOTH THE HRRR AND RRFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP
AROUND THE RENO-SPARKS METRO AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A
LOW CHANCE (<10%) THAT SHOWERS ON MONDAY COULD CONTAIN SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECT A DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE, SO LIGHT VIRGA
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. BUT IF RAIN OVERCOMES THIS DRY LAYER AND REACHES
THE GROUND, QPF VALUES GENERALLY LOOK RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE TO
LESS THAN 0.1 INCH LOCALLY. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-30 MPH WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
COOLING A DEGREE OR TWO WHILE STAYING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS AN UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE W CONUS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ON THESE DAYS WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASON NORMALS.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN DOES CHANGE ON FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MODEL CONFIDENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PAC NW. THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A COOLING
TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CURRENTLY
CALLS FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL (FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
IN 50S IN THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES) NEXT SUNDAY. NOT ONLY IS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE COOLER, BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY WINDIER AND
WETTER AS THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS INCREASED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS
STILL ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FORECAST UPDATES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -MRC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HAZE CAUSED BY SMOKE FROM THE BULL
AND DOME FIRES MAY REDUCE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY WITHIN THE REGION
AT TIMES. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREA TAF SITES, WITH KMMH SEEING SE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS BETWEEN 04/19Z-05/00Z. A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING UP TO AROUND
20% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO NE CA, THE SIERRA, AND THE SIERRA
FRONT. -MRC
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT BOTH AREA CLIMATE SITES (RENO AT KRNO
AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AT KTVL) FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/4 89F (1987) 82F (1988)
10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1991)
10/6 88F (1980,1991,1996,2004) 78F (2014)
10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)
-------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/4 54F (2024) 45F (2015)
10/5 52F (1947,1999,2024) 39F (2024)
10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021)
10/7 52F (2021,2024) 43F (2021)
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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