670
FXUS65 KREV 230947
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER, BREEZIER, AND DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BASIN AND RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
* A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA.
* THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY AND GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CWA WITH GENERALLY A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEING BETWEEN A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
NV DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR 15-25% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MINERAL,
CHURCHILL, AND MONO COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AROUND
200-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS ON BOTH AFTERNOONS ALLOWING FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V SHAPE, WHICH SIGNALS THAT
STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH CLOUD BASES AND CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST PW VALUES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 0.6-0.8 INCHES, SO STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE THE DRY LAYER AT
THE SURFACE THAT MAY ABSORB A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON BOTH
DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE ENTIRE CWA HAVING VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER
100S IN THE W NV VALLEYS WITH SUNDAY'S HIGHS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES TO WHERE THE LOWER LIMIT IS IN THE MIDDLE 90S. SIERRA
COMMUNITIES SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO PROJECTING WINDS INCREASING GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-35 MPH STARTING
ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO DUE TO A STRONGER UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE
NW CONUS THAT COULD MIX DOWN WITHIN SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THESE INCREASED WINDS AND THE EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUMMER HEAT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN
PORTIONS OF NE CA AND FAR NW NV, WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CONFIDENCE
THAT THE JOINT CRITERIA OF HIGHER WINDS AND LOWER MINIMUM RH WILL
BE MET FOR A LONGER DURATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IN EFFECT ON BOTH DAYS AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE INFORMATION. AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD GENERATE
SPARKS AND CAUSE NEW WILDFIRES. WILL BE MONITORING THE WIND
FORECAST IN THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS THESE INCREASED WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY LINGER FOR A THIRD DAY. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES SHOWING THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND
RIDGE. BUT THE MODELS DO PROJECT THE INCREASED UPPER JET TO HAVE
DEPARTED THE REGION BY MONDAY. AS SUCH, TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE CWA NEXT WEEK. ALSO, VERY
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SEEN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY BACK BY TUESDAY
IN THE W NV VALLEYS TO WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S. -078
AVIATION
MORNING FOG NEAR KTRK EXPECTS TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LIFR
THROUGH AROUND 23/14Z. AFTER THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS BETWEEN 23/22Z-24/04Z. WHILE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REGION, THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN S. MONO, MINERAL, AND SE. CHURCHILL COUNTIES
BETWEEN 23/21Z-24/05Z. PORTIONS OF MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO HAVE
SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE ROCK FIRE IN
INYO COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. NOT ANTICIPATING KMMH TO SEE
SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES, BUT WILL MONITOR IN CASE THIS CHANGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY ARE ALSO IN
THE FORECAST WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS GOING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. -078
FIRE WEATHER
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, ALTHOUGH A 15-25% CHANCE
OF STORMS IN MONO, MINERAL, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE TWO MAIN DAYS OF CONCERN
THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RHS RANGING FROM 5-10% WILL OVERLAP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA, YIELDING 3-8 HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON, AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THESE CONDITIONS TO THE BISCAR FIRE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM 1 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY.
WILL BE MONITORING WINDS ON SUNDAY TO SEE IF THE INCREASED WINDS
LINGER AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A THIRD
DAY. -JUSTIN/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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