193
FXUS65 KREV 160712
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1212 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHERN LYON, MINERAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES.
* WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY
BREEZES. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE REGION IS TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE 00Z KREV
SOUNDING INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, WITH A PWAT OF 0.45". WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
(700-500MB AT 7.9 C/KM), THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, SPECIFICALLY SOUTHERN LYON,
MINERAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES, THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE PAC NW WILL ENHANCE THESE WINDS. NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS, BUT GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER.
THESE WINDS MAY CREATE ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS CAN
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, POTENTIALLY REACHING UPPER 90S
IN THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE BY MID-WEEK. SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION INDICATES THAT WHILE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BY FRIDAY, ITS IMPACT ON THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED INITIALLY. HOWEVER, BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY /
SATURDAY), LOW-END CHANCES (10-20%) FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN, PRIMARILY TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, AS SOME MOISTURE POTENTIALLY SNEAKS IN UNDER THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF LOW END (10-
20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LYON,
MINERAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES FROM APPROXIMATELY
21Z-02Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WITH PEAK GUSTS AT TERMINAL SITES REACHING
10-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, IN ABSENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS. AN UPTICK IN WSW WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS REACHING 15-25 KTS.
-DAWN/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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