222
FXUS65 KREV 110940
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHTER AFTERNOON
WINDS ACCOMPANYING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
* VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
* A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RESUMES STARTING TUESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL. THIS FEATURE IS INTERFACING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
BRINGING THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT HAS STALLED
THE NORTHERLY TROUGH FROM ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION, WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE WEATHER OUTCOMES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SINCE THE
SOURCE REGIONS FOR EACH OF THESE FEATURES IS CONTRASTED IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND MOISTURE PROFILE, THEIR INTERACTIONS WILL
DICTATE JUST HOW MUCH COLDER WE GET, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN
EXPECT FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS TO
UTAH AND WYOMING. THIS IS NEAR ENOUGH TO US THAT WE CAN EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT OF THIS, BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL DISCREPANCY, LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME FORECAST DETAILS. FOR INSTANCE, EARLIER NBM
RUNS HAD A 10-25% CHANCE FOR UP TO AND INCH OF SNOW AT TAHOE LAKE
LEVEL, NOW SHOWING NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THAT AREA. WHAT WE CAN
SAY IS THAT THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE TO SEE WET STUFF FALLING FROM
THE SKY TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, WITH 30-60%
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF PERSHING
AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, AN AREA THAT IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MAIN
PLUME OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA TODAY, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
TO UP TO AN INCH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING AROUND 6500-7500 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THERE COULD
BE SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR FOR MANY SIERRA COMMUNITIES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE TO 7000-7500 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS STRONGER SHOWERS
DEPICTED IN CAMS GLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IN CONSIDERATION
WITH SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE MAKER IN THE
FORECAST FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THE SHOWERS WRAP UP AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF SUNSET AND THE TUMBLING SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. IF THE SHOWERS INTENSIFY AROUND SUNSET, IT IS A BETTER SETUP
TO ACCUMULATE MEASURABLE SNOW. FOR NOW, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE TOP OF MT. ROSE, ALONG TIOGA
PASS OR AT THE TOP OF MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN. US-395 SOUTH OF US-50 MAY
SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM DRY PAVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ONCE WE CLEAR THE SHOWERS OUT TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY, THE SUNSHINE
WILL WORK TO START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES. HRICH
AVIATION
* CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY, WITH CHANCES 20-40% FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR ALL TERMINALS. SIERRA TERMINALS MAY SEE SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 15-20 KTS TODAY. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page