707
FXUS65 KREV 050757
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1257 AM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
* A COOLING TREND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A LOWER <10% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN AREAS TO WATCH OUT FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
ARE THE EASTERN SIERRA STRETCHING FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO MONO COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
15% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT, INCLUDING THE GREATER RENO AREA. BECAUSE WE HAVE A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, ANY LIQUID AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.10". THE MOST ANY STORMS MAY DO TODAY IS PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND VIRGA.
EVEN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, OUR TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION, A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY
MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN NV, EASTERN LASSEN, AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY. FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA, TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE STILL
HAVE A 90% FOR SETTING A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO
ON WEDNESDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE ENSEMBLES AND BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TO A WEAK RIDGE. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS A COOLDOWN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BUT, THE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE IS 15 DEGREES. THERE IS EVEN LOWER CERTAINTY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE'LL KEEP 10-20% CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL INTRODUCE A
20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z AT KTRK, KTVL, KRNO,
KCXP, AND KMEV. THIS MAY DROP CEILINGS TO LOCAL IFR/MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
* OUTSIDE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION, WE HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH SOME SMOKE AND HAZE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA,
LIMITING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY FOR SOME AREA TERMINALS (SUCH AS
KMMH, KHTH).
* LIGHTER WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 10-15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. -MCKELLAR
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT BOTH AREA CLIMATE SITES (RENO AT KRNO
AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AT KTVL) FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/4 HI: 89F, TIED 89F (1987) HI: 77, OLD: 82F (1988)
10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1991)
10/6 88F (1980,1991,1996,2004) 78F (2014)
10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)
-------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/4 LOW: 52F, OLD: 54F (2024) 45F (2015)
10/5 52F (1947,1999,2024) 39F (2024)
10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021)
10/7 52F (2021,2024) 43F (2021)
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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