212
FXUS65 KREV 191909
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1209 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE DAY
TUESDAY.
* STORM WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COOL BUT MAINLY DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED PATTERN
COULD BRING A STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS BANDED PRECIP SETS UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE N/NE OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS ONE
DEFINITELY HAS MORE GOING FOR IT THAN THE "STORM" A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AGO. WHILE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH A 70-90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" IN
BOTH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHICS WON'T REALLY BE A BIG
LIFTING FACTOR GIVEN S/SW FLOW AND MOST OF THE FORCING BEING ALOFT.
* WHILE THIS WILL BY AND LARGE BE A WELCOME & BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
THAT WILL HELP QUELL FIRE POTENTIAL AND RECHARGE THE STREAMS, SOME
SIMULATIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" RAIN UNDER ANY BANDING THAT
DEVELOPS. THAT COULD YIELD FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR ON
RECENT BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE HAWK AND BUG FIRES NEAR RENO. WITH
AUTUMN LEAF AND NEEDLE DROP HAPPENING, GUTTERS AND DRAINS SHOULD
BE CHECKED BEFOREHAND. I'D ALSO EXPECT THE COMMUTES WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY TO BE EXTRA SLOW DUE TO RAIN & PONDING WATER.
* WE ALSO COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME SNOW FOR THE SIERRA THAT MAY HAVE
AN IMPACT FOR THE STILL-OPEN PASSES SUCH AS TIOGA, SONORA, AND MT
ROSE. GUIDANCE INDICATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THAT HAPPENING - 70% OF 2-3" AND 25% OF 6" FOR
THESE PASSES. IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR TO START THINKING ABOUT
PREPARING YOUR VEHICLE FOR WINTER TRAVEL, E.G. GOOD TIRE TREAD &
WIPERS & BATTERY, START CARRYING CHAINS & CHECK YOUR SURVIVAL KIT.
* IN GENERAL WIND WON'T BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA IN THE OWENS/CHALFANT
VALLEYS UP INTO THE HWY 95 COMMUNITIES IN MINERAL COUNTY.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES LOOK TO CHANNEL UP THOSE VALLEYS TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY PEAKING 40-45 MPH. THIS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY.
* SIMULATIONS KICK THIS UPPER LOW OUT PRETTY QUICK ON FRIDAY, SUCH
THAT WE'RE LEFT WITH MAINLY DRY AND COOL FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN IS
PRETTY LOW-PREDICTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE WIDE SPREADS IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP FORECASTS IN THE NBM. THAT BEING SAID, A
NUMBER OF THE AI MODELS, WHICH SHOW SKILL AT LONG LEAD TIMES, ARE
SHOWING A DECENT EARLY SEASON SNOW EVENT FOR THE SIERRA AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE HALLOWEEN. CPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN
THEIR 8-14 DAY HAZARDS OUTLOOK.
-CHRIS
AVIATION
* LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED S/SW
FLOW ALOFT (700MB FLOW 25-30 KNOTS) OVER THE SIERRA AND W NEVADA,
ALONG WITH SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, INTO TUESDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, GENERALLY 20-25
KNOTS AT MOST TAF SITES. AS SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN
CONTINUED BREEZY FLOW AT RIDGETOP LEVELS. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE
IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM RNO/TVL NORTHWARD.
* SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/TUES WITH ROUGHLY
15-30% PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR PERIODS IN RAIN AND LOWER
CEILINGS. MUCH WETTER FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
-CHRIS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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