755
FXUS65 KREV 021900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1200 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ISOLATED MODERATE HEATRISK
POSSIBLE IN LOWER VALLEYS.
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, THEN STRONGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS ARE FAVORED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES.
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY WHERE GUSTY WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND
INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:
* WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER CA/NV WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NV VALLEYS, WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE
REMAIN LIMITED, WITH ONLY A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR MONO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 15% OR LESS.
BREEZY WEDNESDAY, THEN BRIEF LULL THURSDAY:
* A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
REMAINS ACROSS THE GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA, WESTERN
NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES, AND
PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. GRADIENTS RELAX SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
STRONGER WEEKEND TROUGH AND WIND POTENTIAL:
* A DEEPER NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE
INLAND EXTENT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER WINDS INTO NORTHERN CA/NV, WHILE THE
GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLES KEEP THE DEEPER TROUGH CORE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, SATURDAY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE STRONGEST WIND SIGNAL, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN SIERRA. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE, GREATER
RENO-CARSON- MINDEN AREA, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES,
AND MONO COUNTY. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH
VALLEY HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOST AREAS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LOW-END
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10% FOR WESTERN NV,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 10-25% CHANCES NEAR THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL MAIN
TERMINALS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. LOW-
END SHOWER POTENTIAL REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO MONO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT KMMH 15% OR
LESS.
* TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 KT. WINDS STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT INCREASES, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE AT KRNO,
KCXP, KMEV, AND KMMH. TAHOE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
* STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WILL FAVOR
INCREASED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE NEAR AND EAST OF THE SIERRA. LOCALIZED LLWS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE TAHOE AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MONO COUNTY, AND EAST INTO THE GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA.
-JOHNSTON
FIRE WEATHER
* RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED FUEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST CA, THE EASTERN SIERRA, NORTHWEST NV, AND THE BASIN AND
RANGE. HOWEVER, LIVE FUEL MOISTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
INDICATES A MIXED FUEL STATE ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF WESTERN NV
AND THE SIERRA FRONT IS IN THE 100-135% RANGE, WITH DRIER POCKETS
AROUND 75-100% WHERE RAINFALL WAS LIGHTER AND FINE FUELS MAY BE
MORE RECEPTIVE. CONTINUED WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CURING AND DRYING OF FINER FUELS.
* A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OVERLAP WITH
MINIMUM RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA
FRONT, WEST HUMBOLDT BASIN, AND LAHONTAN BASIN. THE STRONGER
SIGNAL REMAINS SATURDAY, WHEN PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 MPH INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV, THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
FRONT, AND THE EASTERN SIERRA. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT, WEST HUMBOLDT
BASIN, LAHONTAN BASIN, AND MONO COUNTY. WITH MINIMUM RH GENERALLY
9-15%, SATURDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FINE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
CURED.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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