272  
FXUS65 KREV 171933  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
1233 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* WARM, SUNNY, AND DRY WEATHER TODAY, WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF  
COOLING LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
* PATTERN SHIFT STARTS THURSDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
* RELATIVELY DRY START TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM  
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS PUSHING  
THE LOW 90S IN VALLEYS OF W NV AND NE CA WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITY  
COUNTERPARTS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S. DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY BEFORE A PATTERN  
SHIFT IN THE FORM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM  
MARIO GETS SHUTTLED INTO THE AREA.  
 
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. HREF CAMS CURRENTLY HAVE  
VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND THE SPATIAL  
COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE,  
CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING HOW THE LOW  
PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LOW HANGING MORE OFF  
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA WHILE OTHERS BRING THE LOW CLOSER  
INLAND. THESE "WOBBLES" HAVE BROUGHT A RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNT OF  
UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY FOR BEING ONLY 24-48 HOURS OUT.  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK BAND OF CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE LOW, OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CA. AS TODAY PROGRESSES, WE WILL  
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. IF SAID  
CLOUD COVER LINGERS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, WE COULD  
SEE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE LACK  
OF SURFACE HEATING. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 35-50% CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS, WHICH WILL START IN THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY BEFORE  
PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF W NV AND THE  
SIERRA. SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
RINSE AND REPEAT THOSE CLOUD COVER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY; MODELS  
ARE SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 0.8 INCHES OF PWAT ACROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR OUR AREA BASED ON  
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL HAVE TOO  
MUCH MOISTURE FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY,  
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 60S FOR  
SIERRA COMMUNITIES. THIS MAY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING,  
AND THUS INSTABILITY, NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FRIDAY  
MAY SEE POSSIBLE FORCING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE CREEPING UP INTO  
OUR AREA.  
 
THIS LEAVES US WITH SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER  
THAN FRIDAY (0.5-0.6") AND THE EFI IS LIGHTING UP PARTS OF NV AND  
THE SIERRA WITH CAPE. IF WE'RE CLEAR IN THE MORNING, IT'LL BE  
MUCH EASIER TO GET THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. BUT, THIS FORECASTER IS  
HESITANT TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL (BETWEEN  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY). WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW EACH DAY  
UNFOLDS; THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE JUST AS IMPORTANT, IF NOT  
MORE SO, THAN VARIOUS FORECAST VARIABLES. TLDR: THERE WILL STILL  
BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS FOR BOTH DAYS, WHICH COULD  
INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, THE EASTERN SIERRA UP  
THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL RISK (>5%) FOR  
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY FROM THE  
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.  
KEEP UP TO DATE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RENO.  
 
-GIRALTE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR ALL  
TERMINALS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE POSSIBILITY FOR  
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR KMMH FROM SMOKE FROM THE GARNET  
FIRE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH  
TONIGHT. MIXED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
THE TIMING FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMMH AFTER 18/21Z. SAID RAINFALL CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD THURSDAY, IMPACTING ALL SIERRA AND  
SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS BY 19/06Z.  
 
-GIRALTE  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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