475
FXUS65 KREV 272036
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
* SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGHING WILL ENCOURAGE ANOTHER DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. W/SW
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH (40-45 MPH FOR WIND PRONE LOCALES) WILL BE COMMON
BETWEEN 12 PM AND 8 PM PDT, RENEWING ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FROM THE
OR BORDER SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (MORE DETAILS
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). LAKES MAY ALSO BE A BIT MORE
CHOPPY IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE
ONLY 10-15% AND CONFINED TO MONO, MINERAL, LYON, AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES, BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
OUTFLOW GUSTS (45+ MPH), BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (10-20%
PROBABILITY), THEN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50-80% FROM THE SIERRA CREST
FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
MAKES THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE OF STORMS FROM ALPINE-MONO COUNTY
INTO LYON, MINERAL, CHURCHILL COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE 15% OR LESS. FASTER STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
THAT NEW LIGHTNING FIRES WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN COMPARED TO
FLOODING, BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE (AT LEAST A 5%
CHANCE) WHERE STORMS TRAIN -- ESPECIALLY IF THEY DO SO OVER
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS AND/OR STEEP TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS TEMPERATURES FALL ~10 DEGREES FROM TODAY.
A DRYING TREND WILL REDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES
ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FAVORED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AFTERNOON
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A TAD STRONGER THAN OUR TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD POSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK'S TEMPERATURES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS BEING MILD AND COOLER THAN NORMAL.
-SALAS
AVIATION
TAF SITES LOOK TO SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREA
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS BETWEEN 27/20Z-28/04Z, WITH
PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER SEEING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND A 10-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN
27/20Z-28/06Z IN W NV AND THE SIERRA, WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES IN
MONO COUNTY/KMMH. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AT KMMH. ON FRIDAY, A COOLER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (50-75% CHANCE) AND THUNDERSTORMS. -078/SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
A 2-5 HOUR OVERLAP OF W/SW GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH (40-45 MPH ON EXPOSED
RIDGES) AND RH REDUCTIONS TO 10-15% WILL UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA -- INCLUDING THE S-1 VYA, S-
3, AND HAWK FIRES. NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TO MODERATE IN
THIS AREA AS RH STRUGGLES TO EXCEED 40%, EXTENDING BURN PERIODS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ARRIVES ON FRIDAY,
INTRODUCING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. A
WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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