596
FXUS65 KREV 232047
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
147 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH INCREASING SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
* DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP 15-20 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS WARM INTO THE MID-70S WHILE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
BEGIN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
PYRAMID LAKE WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD REACH 25-30 MPH.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHWEST NV UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND:
* A COLDER AND WINDIER PATTERN IS FAVORED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIP IN SOME AREAS AS WE GET CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
* WINDS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT FOR SATURDAY
PARTICULARLY FROM US-50 NORTHWARD AND ALONG THE US-395/I-580
CORRIDOR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, WHERE
PROBABILITY FOR PEAK GUSTS OF 45+ MPH IS GENERALLY 40-60%.
SIERRA RIDGETOP GUSTS COULD REACH 100 MPH AS 700 MB FLOW
INCREASES TO 50-60 KT. EXPECT IMPACTS FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION,
AVIATION, AND CROSS WIND HAZARDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, WITH
PATCHY BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DESERTS AND SINKS IN WEST
CENTRAL NV.
* PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH FEWER
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY WETTING RAINFALL. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, WITH MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-0.50",
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.75" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. FAR WESTERN NV
CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE LARGELY SHADOWED OUT FROM NOTABLE RAIN,
WITH AMOUNTS 0.10" OR LESS, WITH SIMILAR LIQUID PRECIP
FORECASTED FOR NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING IS ALSO LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES ON SIERRA
PASSES ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET.
* FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD, AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NV.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS IS LOWER WITH THE MOST LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0.15-0.30", AND LOCALLY UP TO 0.50" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
ANOTHER LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UP TO 2" MAY OCCUR NEAR AND ABOVE
7500 FEET AROUND THE TAHOE REGION AND NORTHWEST MONO COUNTY
SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NV AND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN MONO COUNTY, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK SPARSE WITH
0.05" OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE, MAINLY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S IN WESTERN NV AND 40S FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25-30 MPH, BUT IT WILL ADD AN
EXTRA DOSE OF FALL CHILL IN THE AIR.
FOR NEXT WEEK, A GENERAL FLAT RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR SOME
WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL DRIER
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. AREAS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE OR BORDER
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE AS MUCH WARMING DUE TO THE LOWER-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE, WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FZFG
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND KTRK BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
MAINLY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FZFG COVERAGE AND DURATION SHOULD BE LESS
COMPARED TO TODAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. FL100 WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 60 KT, LEADING TO INCREASED
TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS. PEAK WIND IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE AND SHEAR AS
FL100 WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 80 KT WHILE SURFACE GUSTS
INCREASE TO 30-40 KT, AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 40 KT FOR FAR WESTERN NV
TERMINALS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VIS AT TIMES WITH
MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS TO KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-00Z. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003>005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.
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