057
FXUS65 KREV 291958
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1258 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER ON, WE HAVE LOW CHANCES (10-15%) OF
RAIN AND STORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONO AND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
MINERAL/CHURCHILL/PERSHING COUNTIES. TOMORROW, CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRIER AND WARMER WITH THE 10-15% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES.
ON MONDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDS FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOWARDS THE PACNW. THIS WILL START TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT NEAR THE OR BORDER LEADING TO INCREASED
SOUTHWEST BREEZES FOR EASTERN LASSEN, THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME CHOPPY LAKE WATERS
IN EASTERN LASSEN AND PYRAMID LAKE, PLUS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR MORE INFO
ABOUT FIRE CONDITIONS PLEASE LOOK AT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
BY TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH
INLAND. WE WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (STILL TRYING TO NAIL THE DETAILS ABOUT
THAT). CURRENTLY, LOOKING AT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH VALLEYS AND 40-50
MPH ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT AGAIN TAKE THIS NUMBERS WITH A
GRAIN OF SALT FOR NOW. ANYWAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CHOPPY LAKES
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, THE NV BASIN AND RANGE, NE CA, AND MONO
COUNTY WITH THOSE WINDS. PLUS THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
INCREASES TOO.
ELEVATED/BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT UPPER TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US. HOWEVER, OUR RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH QUITE LOW AT
10-25% FOR THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE NEAR THE
OR BORDER.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. KTRK HAS A 15%
CHANCE OF FG BETWEEN 10-15Z SUN AM. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EAST OF KHTH/KMMH THIS AFTERNOON, AND 10-15% FOR KMMH AND
VICINITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 22-27 KTS BETWEEN 19Z-03Z TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOWER SPEEDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA WITH FL100 WINDS OF 30-40 KTS FROM 00Z-06Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE MONDAY, PEAKING ON TUESDAY.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY THIS
WEEK AS WINDS START TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ON MONDAY, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHOE, THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND EASTERN LASSEN. PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25-30 MPH AND MIN RH AROUND 15%. THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
VERY ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LEE-SIDE OF AREA
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WASHOE AND EASTERN LASSEN COUNTIES.
BY TUESDAY, CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE IN MUCH OF THE SAME
REGION, BUT ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. MIN RH INCREASES SLIGHTLY,
BUT MOSTLY ON MOUNTAIN AREAS (SIERRA). HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE
AREA OF CONCERN HAS MIN RH AT 9-17%.
BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT MIN RH CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, REDUCING OUR RISK FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WE HAVE A
CONTINUOUS INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIMITING
THE FIRE RISK.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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