280
FXUS65 KREV 020848
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
148 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. BE PREPARED FOR RECREATION AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, HAIL, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.
* COOL, SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. SNOW MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 8000 FEET MONDAY.
* WARM WEATHER RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FEW MORE DAYS OF TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
(MID-70S FOR NV VALLEYS) ARE IN STORE TODAY AND SUNDAY. MARTIS
VALLEY AND TRUCKEE COULD SEE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS (30% CHANCE). WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS 15-20 MPH. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TAKE A HIT ON MONDAY
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE (MID-60S IN NV VALLEYS), THEN
BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN NV BY
WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGHLIGHT OF FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CLOSED LOW IS APPROACHING OUR AREA
AND MOVING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA, CREATING AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASED FORCING ALOFT AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO TAP
INTO. PWATS TODAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.5-0.7"
WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND THE SWEET SPOT FOR OUR AREA. CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE 30-40% TODAY (20% CHANCE T-STORMS) AND 50-80% SUNDAY
(30% CHANCE T-STORMS), WITH THE HIGHER END BEING ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST AROUND THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY,
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY GET A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS. STORM
MOTIONS LOOK TO BE FAST AROUND 20-30KT TODAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL,
SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 400-700 J/KG TODAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH
THEORETICALLY PUTS ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
30-35 MPH. OVERALL, MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL-FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL (<1" IN
DIAMETER) AND ICE PELLETS, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS.
THE STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNDAY, WITH MONDAY POSSIBLY
BEING ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM DAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SUCH AS
THE GFS AND RRFS ARE SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-900
J/KG ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD ALSO PROMOTE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP ON MONDAY TO AROUND 8000 FEET, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN MONO COUNTY RECEIVING A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW. LATER THIS WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BY MID-WEEK,
THOUGH THAT COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AGAIN TOMORROW. AT THE VERY
LEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY INTO THE MID-80S ACROSS
WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND LOW-70S IN SIERRA VALLEYS.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. KTRK HAS A 30% CHANCE TO
SEE FZFG TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE.
AN INCOMING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES JUMP UP
TO 30-40% ON SATURDAY AND 50-80% ON SUNDAY, EACH WITH A 15% AND
30% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING, RESPECTIVELY. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BECOME
OBSCURED AS CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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