471
FXUS65 KREV 100851
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
151 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR TODAY, BRINGING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND RECREATION CONCERNS.
* INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AREAS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK FOR SATURDAY.
* A MONSOONAL PATTERN INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
OUR WARM-HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID-90S ACROSS LOWER
VALLEYS AND LOW-80S IN THE SIERRA. FALLON (KNFL) HAS A 60% CHANCE
TO REACH 100 DEGREES TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY THIS YEAR. SIMILARLY, LOVELOCK HAS AN 80% CHANCE TO REACH 100
DEGREES TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE KLOL'S SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY THIS
YEAR. ALOFT, A TROUGH SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL HELP
INCREASE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA. BECAUSE
OF THE HEAT AND LOW RHS THIS AFTERNOON, THESE GUSTY WINDS OF
30-35 MPH WILL YIELD 3-7 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MORE INFORMATION ON OUR RED FLAG WARNING DOWN IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION DOWN BELOW.
THE REAL "HOT" TEMPERATURES DON'T COME UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND ADVECTS SOME WARMER AIR
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. BECAUSE OF THESE HOT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE LYON AND MINERAL COUNTY VALID FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OUR TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZE PICKS
BACK UP SATURDAY AND WE CONTINUE TO STAY DRY THANKS TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME; MORE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV.
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, IT'S GOING
TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DRAW IT UP FROM THE
SOUTH STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A MONSOONAL
PATTERN WE USUALLY SEE AT LEAST ONCE EVERY SUMMER THAT BRINGS OUR
CWA AROUND A WEEK OR SO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, PWAT VALUES ACROSS WESTERN NV RANGE FROM
0.7-0.9" THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SIGNIFYING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS UPCOMING MULTI-DAY
EVENT, POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STARTS FROM STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN
CORES, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE. AS OF THE CURRENT TIME, THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. FROM WHAT WE'RE SEEING, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. EVEN FOR THIS SUNDAY, THE EAST-WEST
POSITIONING OF THE STORMS STILL VARIES FROM OVER THE SIERRA CREST
TO WESTERN NEVADA, SO STILL LOTS TO RESOLVE AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS 20-30KT.
FL100 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVER THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN, GIVING WAY TO SOME POCKETS OF LLWS AND LIGHT
TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA. LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
-JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
* CONTINUED DRY AFTERNOONS PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV
(NEAR 5% AT TIMES ALONG & EAST OF US-95) AND EASTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, WITH 10-15% FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA/TAHOE BASIN AND NEAR
THE OR BORDER. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR FOR MUCH
OF WESTERN NV AND SOME MIDSLOPE/THERMAL BELT REGIONS, WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONLY AROUND 20-30%.
* SW-W FLOW INCREASES OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 700 MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE,
PRODUCING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN LASSEN/NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN NV SIERRA FRONT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM.
* THE DURATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH MEETING CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VERY ISOLATED, BUT A FEW SITES COULD
SEE THESE CONDITIONS OCCUR FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS. HRICH/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ420-458.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ001-004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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