664
FXUS65 KREV 070922
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
* A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRI-SAT.
* SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING, ALONG WITH 10-20% CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WARM STREAK OF
LATE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR
TODAY, THERE IS A LIKELY 90% CHANCE WE'LL TIE OR BREAK THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO, AS WELL AS OTHER RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS ON POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS
AT RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THIS
WEEKEND. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE FIRST THING
THIS SYSTEM WILL DO IS INCREASE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA, AND WESTERN NV. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN STRONG ON
THE RIDGETOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME, BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH A LIKELY 50-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 45
MPH ALONG WIND PRONE AREAS AND RIDGES. WHEN WE COMBINE THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA. THERE ARE ALSO IMPACTS TO
RECREATION, TRAVEL, AND AVIATION.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT REMNANT MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE RACHEL
WILL GET PULLED INTO THIS LOW. ALL OF THESE MEANS LOWER CERTAINTY
INTO THE EXTENT OF COOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
DROP UPWARDS OF 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STREAK OF WARM
TEMPERATURES. READINGS BY THIS TIME WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MID-OCTOBER. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THIS LOW IS COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
CHANCE OF SNOW ABOVE 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET. GET READY TO GO FROM
LATE SUMMER BACK TO FALL, PLUS CHANGING OUT YOUR SANDALS FOR
SWEATSHIRTS. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z AT KTRK.
* VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES BELOW 20 KTS.
* A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AND TURBULENCE AS A POTENT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. -FUENTES/MCKELLAR
CLIMATE
FOR BOTH AREA CLIMATE SITES (RENO AT KRNO AIRPORT AND SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE AT KTVL AIRPORT):
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY (10/7) HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY (NEAR 90%) FOR AT LEAST A TIED RECORD HIGH FOR THAT
DATE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 3 (91F) AND 4 (89F) WERE
TIED AT RENO OVER THE PAST WEEKEND. SO FAR THIS MONTH, SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE HASN'T REACHED ANY RECORD HIGHS, AND NEITHER SITE HAS
REPORTED ANY RECORD WARM LOWS.
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)
10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015)
10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996)
* RENO'S LATEST 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR ANY CALENDAR YEAR.
---------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021)
10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969)
10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003)
* RENO'S WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR ANY DAY IN OCTOBER.
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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