243
FXUS65 KREV 240718
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1218 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
* COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY MARKS THE START OF A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA,
AND UP TO 25 MPH IN THE TAHOE BASIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA
AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGETOP GUSTS IN THE SIERRA COULD
EXCEED 75 MPH, WITH WIDESPREAD VALLEY GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF US-50 AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. THESE
STRONG WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15-25%), WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND MID-60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SIERRA, STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND THE ONLY MODELS TO SHOW ANY
INDICATIONS OF PRECIPITATION ARE THE WRF-NSSL AND NBM (<20%) NEAR
THE NV/OR BORDER AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND
MID-60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SIERRA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S, WITH SOME COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS POTENTIALLY
REACHING FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA,
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT ON MONDAY, THEN SLOWLY REBOUND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING W-SW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINAL GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA
TONIGHT, WITH FL100 WINDS OF 40-45KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN INCREASED MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS. SURFACE
GUSTS ACROSS TAHOE AND W.NEVADA COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 25-25KTS
WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. FUENTES/JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH AFTERNOON RH
FALLING TO 10-15%. ISOLATED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT,
FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA, AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-80,
WHILE WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG US-395 IN MONO COUNTY AND THE
SIERRA FRONT COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM RH WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND
FAR N.WASHOE COUNTY. HOWEVER, DESPITE MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 18-25%,
GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL PRODUCE 3-6 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. FUENTES/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ420-421.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ423-429.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ458.
CA...
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