472  
FXUS65 KREV 301942  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
1242 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
 
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK PRESENT TODAY.  
 
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH  
LESSER CHANCES SOUTH AROUND THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN.  
 
* A MINOR COOLDOWN BEGINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY, WITH  
DAILY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE REGION THROUGH AT  
LEAST WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE  
HEATRISK. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED TODAY AND TOMORROW, TAKE  
FREQUENT BREAKS IN SHADE IF YOU ARE IN THE SUN, AND REMEMBER TO LOOK  
BEFORE YOU LOCK FOR CHILDREN AND PETS IN VEHICLES. THESE TOASTY DAYS  
AHEAD WILL MODERATE BY MIDWEEK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH  
THE COOLEST DAY LOOKING TO BE THE HOLIDAY. AS WE LOOK BEYOND THE  
HOLIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE  
ONCE AGAIN.  
 
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN FAR NORTHERN LASSEN  
AND MODOC COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE, WHERE  
CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25% FOR TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH, ALONG THE  
SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN, THERE ARE CHANCES AROUND 5-15%.  
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME  
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO ALPINE  
COUNTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS  
SUGGESTED THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER CHANCES HAVE DROPPED TO 10% OR LESS.  
IN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS DO FORM, BE AWARE OF THE SKIES AS LIGHTNING  
AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SUMMER AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS. THE SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY,  
WITH CHANCES AS HIGH AS 20-40% FOR LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN WASHOE  
COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN WILL RANGE 10-25%,  
WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE TAHOE BASIN.  
RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA WILL SEE AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AROUND 10-  
20% AS WELL. WEDNESDAY, WE START SEEING THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD, BUT CHANCES STAY IN THE RANGE OF 10-25% FOR MOST OF  
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. SOME SHOWERS MAY EVEN  
SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE BASIN AND RANGE, WITH 10-15% CHANCES  
THERE. THURSDAY, SHOWERS APPEAR IN BLENDED GUIDANCE ALONG THE OREGON  
BORDER, AND FOR THE HOLIDAY. ONCE WE SETTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A  
DRYING TREND EMERGES AS HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SHOWER CHANCES, THERE MAY BE LITTLE  
PRECIPITATION THAT HITS THE GROUND, WITH THE BEST DAY TO SEE WETTING  
RAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE MAY BE OF THE DRY THUNDER  
VARIETY TODAY AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY MAY INCREASE THE FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERN FOR LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN WASHOE, AS ANY SPARK  
THAT IGNITES MAY EASILY CARRY IN THE GUSTY WINDS. SEE THE FIRE  
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. HRICH  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
* VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHEN GUSTY WESTERLY  
WINDS RETURN AROUND 00Z, TO ABOUT 20-25 KTS. FOR TERMINALS  
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, HEAT-DENSITY ISSUES MAY ARISE TODAY AND  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR KSVE, A 15-25% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS EXISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SHOWER CHANCES ALSO APPEAR  
FOR KTRK/KTVL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD FOR ALL  
TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOWS UP TO 50+ KTS IN IT'S  
VICINITY. HRICH  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
* ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WITH  
GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE (15-25% CHANCES) FOR FAR NORTHERN  
LASSEN COUNTY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. STORMS TODAY WILL SEE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO HIGH STORM BASES AND  
FAST STORM MOTIONS. LESSER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) ARE ALSO SEEN IN THE SIERRA DOWN TO THE  
TAHOE BASIN, ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY LATE TODAY.  
 
* COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPANDS EAST INTO THE SIERRA FRONT ON  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FARTHER INTO WESTERN NV FOR WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS  
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRY STRIKES EXPECTED AGAIN IN AREAS  
OF NORTHERN LASSEN TO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.  
 
* AREAS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK  
AS BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK. -078/FUENTES/HRICH  
 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab CA Page
Main Text Page