596  
FXUS65 KREV 232047  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
147 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH INCREASING SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
* PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD,  
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.  
 
* DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP 15-20 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AS  
THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER  
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WESTERN  
NEVADA VALLEYS WARM INTO THE MID-70S WHILE SOUTHWEST BREEZES  
BEGIN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.  
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-  
PYRAMID LAKE WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD REACH 25-30 MPH.  
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THE  
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ISN'T EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST CA AND  
NORTHWEST NV UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
THIS WEEKEND:  
 
* A COLDER AND WINDIER PATTERN IS FAVORED THIS WEEKEND, WITH  
PRECIP IN SOME AREAS AS WE GET CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF AN  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
 
* WINDS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT FOR SATURDAY  
PARTICULARLY FROM US-50 NORTHWARD AND ALONG THE US-395/I-580  
CORRIDOR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, WHERE  
PROBABILITY FOR PEAK GUSTS OF 45+ MPH IS GENERALLY 40-60%.  
SIERRA RIDGETOP GUSTS COULD REACH 100 MPH AS 700 MB FLOW  
INCREASES TO 50-60 KT. EXPECT IMPACTS FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION,  
AVIATION, AND CROSS WIND HAZARDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, WITH  
PATCHY BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DESERTS AND SINKS IN WEST  
CENTRAL NV.  
 
* PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH FEWER  
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY WETTING RAINFALL. THE BEST  
RAIN CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO  
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR  
NORTHWEST NV, WITH MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-0.50",  
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.75" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. FAR WESTERN NV  
CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE LARGELY SHADOWED OUT FROM NOTABLE RAIN,  
WITH AMOUNTS 0.10" OR LESS, WITH SIMILAR LIQUID PRECIP  
FORECASTED FOR NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING IS ALSO LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES ON SIERRA  
PASSES ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET.  
 
* FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF  
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND  
NORTHEAST CA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD, AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST NV.  
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS IS LOWER WITH THE MOST LIKELY RANGE  
FROM 0.15-0.30", AND LOCALLY UP TO 0.50" NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.  
ANOTHER LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UP TO 2" MAY OCCUR NEAR AND ABOVE  
7500 FEET AROUND THE TAHOE REGION AND NORTHWEST MONO COUNTY  
SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NV AND  
SOUTHERN/EASTERN MONO COUNTY, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK SPARSE WITH  
0.05" OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE, MAINLY UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S IN WESTERN NV AND 40S FOR  
SIERRA COMMUNITIES. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO  
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25-30 MPH, BUT IT WILL ADD AN  
EXTRA DOSE OF FALL CHILL IN THE AIR.  
 
FOR NEXT WEEK, A GENERAL FLAT RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE  
SHAPE, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR SOME  
WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL DRIER  
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. AREAS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE OR BORDER  
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE AS MUCH WARMING DUE TO THE LOWER-AMPLITUDE  
RIDGE, WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES. MJD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FZFG  
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND KTRK BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING  
MAINLY BETWEEN 12-16Z. FZFG COVERAGE AND DURATION SHOULD BE LESS  
COMPARED TO TODAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT  
AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. FL100 WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY  
NIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 60 KT, LEADING TO INCREASED  
TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS. PEAK WIND IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE AND SHEAR AS  
FL100 WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 80 KT WHILE SURFACE GUSTS  
INCREASE TO 30-40 KT, AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 40 KT FOR FAR WESTERN NV  
TERMINALS. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VIS AT TIMES WITH  
MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS TO KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY  
MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-00Z. MJD  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003>005.  
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.  
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.  
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.  
 

 
 

 
 
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