363
FXUS65 KREV 170735
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1235 AM PDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF
MAJOR HEATRISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
* THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, PEAKING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR IMPACTS TO FIRE,
RECREATION, AND AVIATION.
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN TODAY FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF W NV
AND NE CA, WITH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR OUR SIERRA COUNTERPARTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIMITED HEAT RELIEF. THANKFULLY, HEAT WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS SLINKING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND 70S FOR
VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, RESPECTIVELY.
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BOTH IN
PROBABILITY AND AREAL COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR
TODAY, BEST CHANCES (15%) FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA OF MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES, EXTENDING
INTO THE PINE NUT MOUNTAINS. AN EMERGING RIDGE BREAKDOWN PATTERN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL INCREASE CHANCES FURTHER, WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SIERRA THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN WITH ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN LASSEN COUNTY OF
NE CA, AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY RANGE FROM 15-20%. MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FURTHER TOWARDS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW INVERTED-V
PROFILES; WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN, THOUGH, AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND AREAWIDE; THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH 15-20% CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING. PWATS RANGE FROM
0.6-0.8" WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 400-800 J/KG.
INVERTED-V PROFILES CONTINUE, SO WHILE SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL, SOME MAY BE DRIER IN NATURE, WHICH
INCREASES THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING. DCAPE VALUES ALSO RANGE OVER
1000 J/KG, COINCIDING WITH OUTFLOW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEALTHY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, PROVIDED BY THE
EASTWARD TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE, IT WILL BE
QUITE EASY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST
BEFORE YOU HEAD OUTDOORS AND KEEP AN EYE AND EAR TO THE SKIES.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL POSE DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS. TYPICAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 15-20
MPH PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
-GIRALTE
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES CONTINUE TO BE POOR FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN
AND RANGE OF WESTERN NEVADA.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FASTER MOVING,
BUT A MIX OF WET STORMS AND DRY STORMS (DRY LIGHTNING THREAT).
OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS, WHICH WILL
HELP RAPIDLY SPREAD ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP FROM LIGHTNING STARTS.
AS A REMINDER, LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 10 MILES AWAY FROM A
STORM. THE PRECEDING DRY CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEK WILL PROMOTE
RECEPTIVE FUELS. WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM UNTIL 11PM.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ458.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY NVZ004.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ423.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ270-278.
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