973
FXUS65 KREV 100813
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
113 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA.
* GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS PEAKING ON SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTS TO
FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, AND RECREATION.
* A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY WILL BRING LOW 90S BACK OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND 80S TO SIERRA
VALLEYS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY. WE WILL
STILL SEE SIMILAR READINGS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE WARMING TREND
WILL BE PUT ON HOLD AS A TROUGH PASSES THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FEATURE TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW-END
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. THE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD BE
FOUND AS FAR NORTH AS I-80, WITH SOME ALSO SHOWING SHOWERS NEARING
THE BLACK ROCK PLAYA. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS OF
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS FALLING FROM FAST-MOVING, SHALLOW STORMS AND
SHOWERS. CHANCES ARE GENERALLY 10-25%, WITH A CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIERRA FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH BRINGING
IMPACTS TO AVIATION AND RECREATION INTERESTS. BY SATURDAY, THE
TROUGH BASE WILL BRING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVERHEAD, INCREASING
WINDS FURTHER WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH IN VALLEYS AND 55-65 MPH FOR WIND
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS WASHOE VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN BRINGS CONCERNS FOR CHOPPY LAKE WATERS, BLOWING DUST AND
FIRE WEATHER. THE TROUGH EXITS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
UNTIL THEN, EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SHOWER CHANCES DO
APPEAR FOR THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE DAY
SATURDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS FOR
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE MID-70S AND SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
HAVE TO SETTLE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AFTER SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL REEMERGE FOR THE NEW WEEK. WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. SOME LOW-END SHOWER
CHANCES REAPPEAR FOR MID-TO-LATE WEEK, BUT WITH VARIANCE IN
MODELING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS SOLUTION. HRICH
AVIATION
* SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH CHANCES RANGING
10-25% FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SIERRA AROUND 20-21Z, THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION, AND AREAS OF
LLWS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
OR LESS, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE TODAY.
* WINDS INCREASE FOR FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS FOR FRIDAY.
THEN WINDS INCREASE FOR SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 35-45 KTS
FOR LEESIDE VALLEY TERMINALS AND POTENTIALLY TO 55-65 KTS FOR
SIERRA TERMINALS. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE LLWS AND TURBULENCE.
HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO MOST
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHOE,
EASTERN LASSEN, CHURCHILL, AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES. THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% WILL ACCOMPANY WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRODUCTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AREAS ARE ISOLATED AND THE TIMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT, BUT IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE PLANNING
FORECAST.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
AND 55-65 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. MIN RH INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 10-
20%, HOWEVER, THE STRONG WINDS WILL OVERCOME ANY INCREASE IN RH.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS SLOWLY COME
DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
-HC/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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