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FXUS65 KREV 042020
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1220 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE AVERAGE
AFTERNOON HIGHS, LIGHT WINDS, AND VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
* A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WILL INTRODUCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
MONO AND SOUTHERN ALPINE COUNTIES.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE MAY FINALLY BREAK DOWN
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY THE
SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 60 FOR
LOWER NV VALLEYS AND AROUND 50-55 FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WELL, WITH AIR
STAGNATION AND HAZINESS, AND VALLEY INVERSIONS NOTICEABLE IN THE
MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS.
FINALLY COMING BETTER INTO VIEW IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL SLIDE IN OFF THE COAST
AND TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA, GIVING MONO COUNTY A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
THIS SYSTEM ARE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN NV. SOME
MODELS SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS
LAKE TAHOE AND HAWTHORNE. I'D SAY TOMORROW WE'LL HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE WITH THAT ASPECT, BUT RIGHT NOW SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 7000 FEET, WITH VERY LIGHT (LESS THAN 1") SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
MORE CONFIDENCE AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS COMES A
COUPLE DAYS LATER AROUND THE 9TH OF FEBRUARY, WHERE WE'RE
EXPECTING ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6500 FT OR LESS FOR THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIP CHANCES RANGE FROM 30-50% FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST AND FROM NE CA INTO N NV. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL
BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE MODELS HAVEN'T REALLY GOTTEN A
GOOD GRIP OF HOW INTENSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TO GIVE YOU
SOME SENSE OF THE MAGNITUDE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE THOUGH, IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE LESS THAN 4" OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST
WITH THIS MONDAY STORM. SO NOTHING TO THE DEGREE OF FEET OF SNOW.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE STORMS
LATER NEXT WEEK THAT IN TOTAL, MAY ADD UP TO A FOOT, OVER MULTIPLE
DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS!
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KTRK WHERE VERY SHALLOW, PATCHY FZFG MAY
FORM BETWEEN 12-15Z. SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV DUE TO VALLEY INVERSIONS AND HAZE IN THE MORNINGS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. -JUSTIN/MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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