673
FXUS65 KREV 020843
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
143 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY.
* A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
* WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW CONUS. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND PUSHING ACROSS N CA THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR
SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. W NV AND NE CA VALLEYS HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO
AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SIERRA COMMUNITIES SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE.
THE LATEST HEATRISK PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE RENO METRO AREA, SO
PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS. IT'S ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS SMOKE
FROM THE DOME FIRE FILTERING INTO THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE REGION. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH
CONDITIONS ON AIRNOW.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD N CA AND
INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OR BORDER ON MONDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN
ALOFT, THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM IS GIVING NE CA AND THE SIERRA A
10% OR LESS CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY VIRGA SUNDAY
EVENING GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED WESTERLY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WELL, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER WHERE THE NBM SHOWS A ~25-50% PROBABILITY
FOR 25+ MPH WIND GUSTS. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ARE
IN FORECAST ON MONDAY THOUGH THEY MAY BE UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE HIGHS EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN
THE W CONUS AFTER THE WEAK TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH W NV VALLEYS BEING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS
THE GFS PROJECTS A PAC NW TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NW CONUS WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE GFS
SOLUTION COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND
AS A RESULT WITH THE ECMWF STAYING CLOSER TO THE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW FORECAST MODELS RESOLVE THIS
DISCREPANCY GOING FORWARD. -MRC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO
AROUND 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 02/20Z-03/03Z. A DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -MRC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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