257
FXUS65 KREV 140802
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
102 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COOL START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CA AND NV WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
BREEZES, AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
* DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL LIMIT HEATING IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST VALLEY AND SIERRA SITES.
SIMILAR FALL-LIKE LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS RETURN TONIGHT.
THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE A WEAK CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST. FOR
TUESDAY, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED, OTHER
THAN A RETURN OF TYPICAL ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES (GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH)
IN THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A WARMUP TO THE LOWER-MID 80S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THEN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO REACH ITS
SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT WITH THE CENTER MEANDERING FROM NEAR THE
NORTH CA COAST TO FAR NORTHERN NV. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL PRESENTS
VARIED TRACKS FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
BRING A 10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV IS LOOKING AT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN WINDS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHORT PERIODS
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOUT 25-50% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT UP TO 70% CHANCE AROUND MAMMOTH LAKES.
THESE BREEZY WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. SOME COOLING WILL ALSO
RESULT FROM THIS LOW, WITH HIGHS RETREATING TO THE 70S IN MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROJECTED
TO RETURN ACROSS CA-NV, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING (HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS/70S NEAR THE
SIERRA), LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LIGHTER NE-E
WINDS (GUSTS BELOW 20 KT) AT THE MAIN TERMINALS TODAY. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WEST WINDS RETURN (EXCEPT S-SW FOR KTRK/KTVL), WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER TO NEAR 25 KT
WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DROPS INTO NORTHERN CA. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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