782
FXUS65 KREV 151907
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1207 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER
RIDGE TOP WINDS PEAKING TONIGHT.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED WINDS
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE SIERRA CREST WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THIS
MORNING WHILE FOR THE CARSON RANGE, GUSTS ON SLIDE MTN HAVE
RANGED FROM 35-40 MPH. LAKE TAHOE BUOYS REPORTED CONDITIONS
NEARING LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS--SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND OBSERVED CHOPPY CONDITIONS (ESTIMATED WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 2 FEET) FROM WEST SHORE WEB CAMERAS. THESE WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO PEAK THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT WHICH ALIGN WITH
TAHOE'S CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE, EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
BY FRIDAY, THE SIERRA RIDGE WINDS DIMINISH, BUT A SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH POCKETS OF ENHANCED 30-35 MPH GUSTS IN PARTS OF
MINERAL COUNTY AND NORTHEAST CA/FAR NORTHWEST NV WHICH COULD
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS--SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HOLDS
ON TO A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS (SUSTAINED
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH) ACROSS MINERAL AND SOUTHEAST
CHURCHILL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES WALKER LAKE WHICH
COULD BECOME CHOPPY OVERNIGHT, BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH.
LIGHTER WINDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY,
THEN MORE TYPICAL ZEPHYR-TYPE SOUTHWEST/WEST BREEZES (GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH) RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA.
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY BRINGS THE START OF A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND RENEWED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (ALSO DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST. WHILE
SOME SCENARIOS WERE STILL SHOWING A FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK,
THERE'S A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE SIERRA AS SOON AS TUESDAY MORNING, THEN
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 40-60% NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80,
WITH 25-40% CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH 15-35% SHOWER CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OR SOUTHWEST US AS
IT MOVES INLAND. PRECIP AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS (MAINLY ABOVE
8000 FT) HAVE ALSO TRENDED UPWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON
THE STORM'S EVENTUAL TRACK. MJD
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR
PATCHY CIRRUS. EAST/SOUTHEAST GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY. STRONGER
FL100/RIDGE TOP EAST WINDS (40-50 KTS) THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
MAY TRIGGER MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS WEST OF THE SIERRA
AND CARSON RANGES. MJD
FIRE WEATHER
* A SHORT PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER ISOLATED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, THE SURPRISE VALLEY, NORTHEAST LASSEN COUNTY AND PARTS
OF MINERAL COUNTY WHERE SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35
MPH, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY BETWEEN 12-18%.
* THE NEXT PERIOD TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS
30-40 MPH FROM THE SIERRA FRONT/TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV. HUMIDITY LOOKS MORE MARGINAL WITH
MINIMUMS MAINLY 15-20% IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20-30% FOR SIERRA
LOCATIONS, BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
CAZ072.
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