122
FXUS65 KREV 281958
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1258 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.
* WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ON SATURDAY.
* INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GLOOMY SKIES AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
WELCOMED FALL-LIKE FEEL TO TODAY'S WEATHER. A SWATH OF SHOWERS IS
PROVIDING LIGHT RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG I-80 FROM THE TAHOE/GREATER RENO-
CARSON-MINDEN AREA TO PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTY, AS EVIDENT ON LATE
MORNING RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL
TODAY WITH TOTALS VARYING FROM 0.1" TO 0.25". A POCKET OF GREATER
RAINFALL IS FAVORED AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH INTO N MONO COUNTY
WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD (50-80% CHANCE) OF
RECEIVING 0.5" OR MORE OF RAIN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS CLOUDY SKIES
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM SURFACE HEATING.
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM BOTH THE BROADER E.PAC TROUGHING PATTERN AND
IMPINGING SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG I-80, BUT
CHANCES OF THIS ARE ONLY 10-20%. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR BETTER
SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SATELLITE OBS
AND LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM MONO
COUNTY INTO LYON, MINERAL, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WHERE T-STORM
CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL
BE CAPABLE OF: STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS (45+ MPH) AND BLOWING DUST NEAR
DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING/NEW FIRE STARTS. FASTER STORM MOTIONS WILL PRECLUDE A
GREATER FLOODING THREAT TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE MOISTURE QUALITY THERE
IS AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS TRAIN --
ESPECIALLY IF THEY DO OVER VULNERABLE BURN SCARS AND/OR IN STEEP
TERRAIN.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT
TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM MONO COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO PERSHING COUNTY (20-40%
CHANCE). BREEZY WINDS ALSO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS SOMEWHAT BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ANTECEDENT
RAIN SHOULD MITIGATE WIND IMPACTS. ENSEMBLES HINT AT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK, FEATURING A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGES. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE'LL STAY ON THE DRIER
AND WINDIER SIDE OF THESE STORMS, WHICH WOULD LEND TO PERIODS OF
GREATER FIRE CONCERNS NEXT WEEK (ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY). OF COURSE, WE COULD TREND WETTER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL DEPTH/TRACK OF THESE TROUGHS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON EITHER
SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.
-SALAS
AVIATION
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KTRK-KTVL AND KRNO-KCXP-KMEV INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE SHOWERS TAPER OFF BETWEEN 00-03Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20%
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AT THESE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. AT
KMMH, HIGHER T-STORM PROBS (20-40%) EXIST THIS AFTERNOON, POSING A
RISK OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/REDUCED CIGS/VIS, AND
LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT KMMH EACH AFTERNOON.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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