711
FXUS65 KREV 240941
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
* SMOKE FROM THE HAWK FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RENO/SPARKS METRO AREA TODAY.
* INCREASED WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL RECREATIONAL IMPACTS BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CWA WITH A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEING UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
AN UPPER AIR RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVELING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
N CA AND THEN INTO OR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE THE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY AS THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE CA AND W NV TODAY WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES
EXPECTED IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER. THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 1-8 PM TODAY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
FROM CAMS, MUCAPE VALUES APPEAR TO GO UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TODAY TO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45-55 MPH ONCE
AGAIN. STORMS ALSO LOOK TO HAVE QUICKER STORM MOTIONS TODAY, SO
DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
OR BORDER. NOT ANTICIPATING A FLOODING THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY AS
THERE IS A DRY SURFACE LAYER SEEN IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, BUT
BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES UP
TO AROUND 0.7 INCHES. AS FOR THE TAHOE REGION AND THE SIERRA, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE HAWK FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE IMPACTS TODAY IN W
NV PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE RENO-SPARKS METRO AREA. LIGHTER WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW SMOKE TO SETTLE WHICH CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY
AND DEGRADE AIR QUALITY. AREA WINDS EXPECT PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH WHEN SMOKE CONCENTRATION INCREASES
ALLOWING SMOKE TO HAVE BETTER DISPERSION. BUT WHEN WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, SMOKE WILL SETTLE AGAIN. THOSE SENSITIVE TO POOR AIR
QUALITY WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRNOW.GOV TODAY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY INFORMATION.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS WITH SIERRA
COMMUNITIES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE. BY FRIDAY AND
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
THE HIGHER SIERRA ELEVATIONS IN THE 70S. THE MAIN CONCERN GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IS INCREASED WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS A PACNW UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SW CANADA. THE
LATEST NBM RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW AROUND A 50-80% PROBABILITY FOR
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ON THESE DAYS WITHIN THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION) AND RECREATIONAL CONCERNS
ON AREA LAKES WITHIN THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY
IF FIRE OR WIND PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED. WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT
AROUND 10-20% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND W NV ON
FRIDAY. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN 24/19Z-25/03Z.
SMOKE FROM THE HAWK FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
KRTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF KRNO THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE LATEST
FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND AMEND TAFS IF NEEDED.
THE INCREASED WINDS WILL AID IN SMOKE DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SMOKE EXPECTS TO SETTLE IN PORTIONS OF W NV GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHEN WINDS DECREASE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE AROUND A 15-
25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NE CA AND W NV
BEGINNING AROUND 24/21Z WITH PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE THE OR BORDER
SEEING THE HIGHER END CHANCES. BY 25/03-04Z, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS. -078
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS
OF 20-25% WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA, INCLUDING THE HAWK
FIRE. SLIGHTLY BETTER OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST AROUND
THE 40-50% RANGE NEAR THE HAWK FIRE.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING AREAS ALONG THE OR BORDER WHERE THERE IS A 15-
25% FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1-8 PM TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS CAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG SIGNALING AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT CAN SUPPORT VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH WITH
THE MOIST MID-LEVEL SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH (40 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS) ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA.
THE SPC'S FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THESE DAYS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
THESE AREAS WITH 40% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH. CURRENTLY, DAYS WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER UPDATES IN CASE FIRE PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED. -078/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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