452
FXUS65 KREV 232104
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2018
SYNOPSIS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER, COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
SHORT TERM
VERY LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN
EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER
70S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS.
GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT INCREASES. RIDGE
GUSTS MAY REACH 30-40 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TUESDAY THEN RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
THE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH A
STRONG RIDGE TOWARDS THE WEST, EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA,
AND A TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE U.S. MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE WEST COAST HIGH AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THINGS START TO CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST DEGRADES WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE. AS OF NOW, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA
DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT TAKING PLACE AT
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT TIMES WITH THE EC BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WETTER.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FOR THE
WEEKEND, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHAKE UP THE STAGNANT WEATHER
PERIOD WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AND OPEN UP THE ACTIVE WEATHER
DOOR.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SINCE IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE WHEN IT COMES TO THE OVERALL POSITIONING OF THE LOW.
-LAGUARDIA
AVIATION
AS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY, RIDGE WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PRESENT GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 KTS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY DROPPING OFF
BY NIGHTFALL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND THE
SAME WAY COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR ALL AREA
TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT
AND INTO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS GROWING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. -LAGUARDIA
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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