521
FXUS65 KREV 170904
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR NE CALIFORNIA AND NW
NEVADA.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY, RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S AND TO AROUND 100F FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID-70S TO MID-80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 15-25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR NE CA, FAR NW NV
AND MOUNTAIN RIDGES. AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW, TYPICALLY 10-20 MPH WITH LOWER CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING 25 MPH. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH ON
LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, MONSOONAL CONTINUES TO INTRUDE THE REGION. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND 5% TO 10-15% PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA. FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
MONSOONAL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF US-50. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS
RANGING FROM 10-40% MONO/MINERAL, 10-20% SIERRA AND WESTERN NV,
AND 5-15% FOR NE CA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS AROUND 1 INCH
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S RANGE, AND MUCAPE AROUND 300-500 J/KG
IS ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN AND URBAN
AREAS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
USUAL DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S FOR THE
SIERRA. OVERALL, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DAILY CONVECTION, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR
MONSOONAL PATTERNS.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL
BE AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET, BUT INCREASED WINDS PERSIST AT FL100 LEVEL THAT
COULD LEAD TO VERY MINOR TURBULENCE AND LLWS. CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE LESS THAN 5%, BETTER CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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