705
FXUS65 KREV 261911
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1211 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FIRE AND LAKE RECREATION
IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
* SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
VERY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
* A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
HEAT IN LOWER VALLEYS AND 90S IN THE SIERRA.
DISCUSSION
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S.,
DIRECTING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA.
FOR TODAY, GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT, ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY FALLING BELOW
20-25 MPH BY LATE EVENING.
THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA IN S MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY 5% POPS FOR KMMH AND
KHTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT, WITH LOWER VALLEYS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S (E.G., KRNO 101F, KHTH 100F, KNFL
99F). SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 60S-70S FOR THE VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD, SETTING THE STAGE FOR EVEN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 100F+ IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S IN THE SIERRA. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL PERSIST, BUT
GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND, WITH WEDNESDAY SEEING
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT RETURNING TO LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS
(E.G., KRNO 99-104F, KNFL 98-108F, KHTH 100-105F). HIGHS IN THE SIERRA
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (E.G., KTVL 82-92F, KMMH
86-96F). THIS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 100-108F RANGE AND
MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ELEVATED, OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. W/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR LLWS THIS AFTERNOON.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF DENSITY ALTITUDE
IMPACTS.
-JYLER
FIRE WEATHER
A BRIEF 2-5 HOUR OVERLAP OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL W/SW WINDS
(SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) AND RH REDUCTIONS TO 5-15%
WILL UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE CALIFORNIA AND NW
NEVADA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM
PDT TODAY FOR THESE AREAS. NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL BE MODERATE
TO POOR IN THESE AREAS EACH NIGHT, WHICH MAY ALLOW FIRES TO
ACTIVELY BURN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN W NV WHERE RH STRUGGLES TO
EXCEED 20-30%.
WINDS WEAKEN TO NEAR/SUB-CRITICAL LEVELS AFTER TODAY, BUT WILL STILL
BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. ALONG WITH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS, THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. SOME
NOTABLE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS INCLUDE: DRIER VEGETATION -
ESPECIALLY HEAVIER FUELS, HEAT STRESS/EXHAUSTION TO FIRE
SUPPRESSION PERSONNEL, AND DEEPER VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH ON
NEW/EXISTING FIRES.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ420-458.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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