100
FXUS65 KREV 271917
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1217 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* SNOWFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND MOUNTAINS IN NEVADA ABOVE
7000 FEET TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* COLD UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED THAT THE LOW MOVES OUT THIS
WEEKEND. IN MANY PAST YEARS, THIS COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS
COINCIDED WITH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS YEAR, IT WAS A
CLOSE CALL.
* WHILE THE AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION, WITH THE VARIOUS WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW, OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY. FOR EXAMPLE: HREF SHOWING 70%+ ODDS OF AT LEAST 0.1"
RAINFALL BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON THURSDAY FROM HAWTHORNE TO
RENO/TAHOE. REGARDING T-STORMS, TODAY AND TOMORROW HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONGER CELLS PER SPC OUTLOOK AND HREF. EVEN SOME
UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS SHOWING UP IN HREF OVER PERSHING, N
WASHOE, AND MODOC COUNTIES EACH DAY - AN INDICATION MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL. EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW FURTHER NORTH OVER OREGON.
* RAIN-SNOW LINES WILL VARY BETWEEN 6000-8000' THROUGH FRIDAY
BASED ON THE NBM GUIDANCE. WITH THE COOLEST DAYS BEING TODAY AND
TOMORROW, THAT'S WHEN WE'LL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. NBM SHOWING 60-80% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 1" NEW SNOW IN
THE SIERRA BETWEEN TAHOE AND MAMMOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH UP
TO 40% CHANCE OF 4" ESPECIALLY ABOVE 7000'. SO ANY MOUNTAIN
ROADS THAT ARE OPEN ABOVE 7000' COULD HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
SNOW, WITH SOME OF THAT COMING DOWN IN HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW/PELLET SHOWERS. ANY NIGHTTIME SNOW EVEN ON WELL-TRAVEL
ROADS LIKE I-80 COULD RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS.
* THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW, WITH NBM
NOW SHOWING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, WHICH ALSO KEEPS THE
WARM-UP MORE GRADUAL WITH 80S HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
MONDAY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE ODDS OF HARD FREEZES IN LOWER VALLEYS
AND URBAN AREAS APPEAR LIMITED DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER. EVEN
AT A TYPICAL COLD SPOT LIKE MINDEN, THE NBM IS ONLY SHOWING
ABOUT 20% CHANCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SOLID WARM UP NEXT WEEK TO TYPICAL OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN T-STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY WITH THAT WARMTH. NBM T-STORM POPS
RUNNING 10-20% EACH DAY.
-CHRIS
AVIATION
* HIGH CHANCES (80%+) FOR MVFR TO IFR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS ALSO EXPECTED.
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED (20-40% CHANCES) - TODAY MAINLY
FROM WMC/LOL TO AAT AND TOMORROW FROM AAT-SVE-TVL-MMH OVER THE
SIERRA. MAIN THREATS ARE ERRATIC OUTFLOWS TO 40 KNOTS,
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINS.
* RAIN-SNOW LINES VARYING BETWEEN 6000-8000', SO SNOW SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS LIKE TRK/TVL AND MMH.
NBM SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 10-25% CHANCES FOR 0.1 TO 1" SNOWFALL
AT THESE SITES TODAY AND/OR TOMORROW.
-CHRIS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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