236
FXUS65 KREV 202008
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
108 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA AND LATER TODAY OVER PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES.
* A SLOW MOVING STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COOL BUT MAINLY DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD BRING A STORM OR TWO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SPINNING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST IS BEGINNING TO FILTER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE
SIERRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE PREVIEW OF THE ANTICIPATED
STORM THAT WILL SHIFT OUR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CA AND NV TO A
COOLER, WETTER PATTERN. THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM IS TARGETED TO
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
.REST OF TODAY.
* WINDS: TODAY'S WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVERALL COMPARED TO
MONDAY'S WINDS, ALTHOUGH MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WILL SEE
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
* PRECIPITATION: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA, STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT
WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS FIRST, THEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE
PLUME WILL ADVANCE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. RAIN TOTALS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.10".
.WEDNESDAY->THURSDAY: THE MAIN EVENT.
* PRECIPITATION: A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT (75-80% CHANCE
FOR >0.25 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, THEN EAST OF
US-95 A 60-70% CHANCE FOR >0.25 INCHES OF RAIN) BEGINS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN SPREADS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2" TOTALS POSSIBLE) AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL.
RAIN WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS NE CA AND W
NV AS WELL AS HELP TO SETTLE DUST. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
BURN SCARS SUCH AS THE HAWK, BULL AND BUG FIRES. PASSES SUCH AS
EBBETTS, TIOGA, SONORA, CARSON AND MT. ROSE HWY HAVE A 40-70%
CHANCE FOR UP TO 4" OF FRESH SNOWFALL, WITH A 25% CHANCE FOR UP
TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT TIOGA PASS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SIERRA.
* TEMPERATURES: WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING SOLAR RADIATION
FOR WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NE CA AND W NV
GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE
SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
THURSDAY, THE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN, DROPPING DAYTIME LOWS OVER
NE CA AND W NV INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 AS OUR NEIGHBORS IN
SIERRA VALLEYS WILL SEE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, ELEVATION
DEPENDENT.
* PREPARING FOR THE STORM: EXPECT SLICK ROAD TRAVEL AND SLOWER
COMMUTES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. NOW IS A GOOD
TIME TO PREPARE YOUR VEHICLES FOR WINTER TRAVEL, AS WELL AS
CHECKING AND CLEARING THE GUTTERS AND STORM DRAINS FOR DEBRIS THAT
MAY SLOW OR INHIBIT THE DRAINING OF WATER.
.WEEKEND & EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
* WEEKEND: DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES AND LOWER-TO-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL
BRING OUR TEMPERATURES INTO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
* NEXT WEEK & BEYOND: LOW-CONFIDENCE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS AND HEAVIER SIERRA SNOWFALL AS WE LOOK TO LATE OCTOBER. HRICH
AVIATION
* TODAY: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 21Z FOR SIERRA TERMINALS AND 00Z FOR
WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION.
* WEDNESDAY->THURSDAY: WIDESPREAD RAIN BRINGS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK
AT 25-30% FOR WEDNESDAY, DROPPING TO 15-20% FOR THURSDAY. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT
THURSDAY CAZ073.
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