218
FXUS65 KREV 181900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRESENT MINOR IMPACTS TO
FIRE, RECREATION, AND TRAVEL ON MONDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS WITH RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
* MORE FALL-WEATHER, INCLUDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHILLY
NIGHTS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TIME TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE LAST COUPLE OF WARM/DRY DAYS OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OUR TYPICAL BREEZY, WESTERLY WINDS. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM BRINGS A CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
STARTING MONDAY THAT WILL NUDGE US TO COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WINDS - WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH S/SW GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA, E SIERRA VALLEYS, AND FAR W NEVADA.
RIDGETOP GUSTS WILL REACH 50-70 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
PLAN FOR SOME WIND IMPACTS MONDAY, INCLUDING A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, CHOPPY LAKE RECREATION AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FOR AIR/GROUND TRAVEL. THE WINDS WILL LESSEN FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARRIVE,
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN S MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES INTO
WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION?! - THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOIST,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND YES, EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FAIRLY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD (MUCH-NEEDED) WETTING RAINS AND MOST OF
THE AREA WITH A 50%+ CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TOTALS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RATHER HIGH EFI SIGNALS FOR
CAPE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ANOMALOUS CAPE VALUES PAIRED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT OF THE TROUGH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (15-25% CHANCES) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS WARMER, SUB-TROPICAL
ORIGIN STORM. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500-8000 FT WILL ALLOW FOR WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES IN MONO COUNTY AND
MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN WHERE THERE IS 50-70% CHANCE OF 4+ INCHES OF
SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR RECREATION PLANS OR
TRAVEL IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, THEN PLAN ON SNOW IMPACTING THOSE
ACTIVITIES.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE IS SLOW TO RETURN.
-LINDAMAN
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH STANDARD
WESTERLY BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER S/SW WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PACIFIC STORM BRINGING THE ENHANCED WINDS ON MONDAY WILL FINALLY
PASS THROUGH THE WEST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT WILL LOWER CIGS/VIS AT ALL AREA
TERMINALS. A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO
BRING SUDDEN VIS REDUCTIONS TO AREA TERMINALS.
-SALAS/LINDAMAN
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
THE WEST. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL WAVER
AROUND 30 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE SIERRA NORTH
OF HIGHWAYS 50/88 INTO PLUMAS-LASSEN AND INTO NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AND THE RENO-CARSON-DOUGLAS-STOREY AREA. WINDS ALONG WITH
RECENT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
THREAT AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC STORM IS PROJECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. MOST
AREAS HAVE A 40% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.25" OF
LIQUID BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA, PLAN
ON ACCUMULATING SNOW (3-8 INCHES) ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
-LINDAMAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page