444
FXUS65 KREV 202016
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
116 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS THURSDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THURSDAY INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* A PACIFIC STORM MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 70F AND 80F THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND NE/W NV VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY.
INCREASED NORTH BREEZES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERSPREADS WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
SPATIAL COVERAGE DURING THIS SEQUENCE, FAVORING THE HIGHER
SIERRA/SIERRA FRONT TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST-ADJACENT AREAS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% ODDS) AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. DRY SW FLOW DISPLACES PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST,
SHIFTING BEST SHOWER/T-STORM POTENTIAL TO THE OR BORDER, THE W NV
BASIN AND RANGE, AND MONO COUNTY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BE SURE TO
MAKE YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS ACCORDINGLY, AND ENSURE YOU HAVE WAYS OF
RECEIVING WEATHER ALERTS IF RECREATING OUTDOORS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
STORM, SO DETAILS ARE TBD FOR NOW.
-SALAS
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BREEZES PREVAIL TODAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES (10-20%) AT KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING
CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOONS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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