763
FXUS65 KREV 151957
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1257 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE SIERRA.
* TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
* SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD PRODUCE MINOR
IMPACTS TO FIRE, AVIATION, AND RECREATION.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO THE SIERRA.
TODAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND ALPINE, AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. CHANCES WILL BE 10-25% THIS AFTERNOON, AS CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE
SIERRA. FOR SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL SEE A RETURN TO
THE SHOWERY AFTERNOON PATTERN, WITH EMPHASIS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE PINENUT MOUNTAINS. JOINING IN ON THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NORTHERN SIERRA, SPECIFICALLY NEAR LASSEN AND
MODOC COUNTIES. CHANCES THERE WILL STILL RANGE 10-25%. FINALLY
FOR SUNDAY, THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, WHERE CHANCES WILL RANGE
10-35%, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE OREGON BORDER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF 10-15% ALSO APPEAR NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND MAY CONTAIN LIGHTNING. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, DON'T LET THE EARLY DAY ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TRICK YOU. KEEP YOUR EYES TO THE SKIES EACH AFTERNOON,
AND WATCH OUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.
COUPLED WITH THE SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WE WILL ALSO SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR SOME SIERRA
COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, OVERNIGHT
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S, WHILE THE BASIN AND
RANGE WILL SEE 60S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST BELOW AVERAGE. AS FOR BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
EACH DAY WE WILL SEE AN ENHANCED ZEPHYR BRING GUSTS OF UP TO 35
MPH TO THE SIERRA RIDGES, WITH VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONCE WE GET MONDAY OUT OF THE WAY,
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL EMERGE AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING AS WELL.
HRICH
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY, ALTHOUGH KMMH WILL SEE A
15-25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL TODAY.
SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN AROUND 21Z, ALTHOUGH CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE
ERUPTING NEARBY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES OF UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE FOUND NEAR KMMH, KTVL AND KSVE FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCES RANGE 10-25% WITH A 20-21Z START TIME FOR
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON BREEZES INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KTS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOWS NEAR STORMS. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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