438
FXUS65 KREV 041951
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1251 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS LOWER
VALLEYS.
* SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES INCREASE FRIDAY WITH BRIEF ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER FIRE RISK IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
* SOME COOLING RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE AVERAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US REMAINS DOMINATED BY
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WARM AND DRY
AIR MASS. A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO COOLER, WETTER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER OCCURS NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
* TEMPERATURES: FRIDAY REMAINS WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WESTERN NV VALLEYS CAN EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, WHILE SIERRA
COMMUNITIES REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS PROLONGED WARM
PERIOD COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 50S-60S FOR VALLEYS, AND 40S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. A
COOLING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS
COOLER TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE NBM SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR RENO, AND LOW 60S FOR SOUTH LAKE TAHOE.
* WINDS: WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS THE REGION SITS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AFTERNOON W-NW BREEZES ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH. AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN WIND-PRONE
CORRIDORS AND ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NV AND EASTERN CA, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGES, PARTICULARLY IN THE GREATER LAKE
TAHOE AND MONO COUNTY AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS, COMBINED WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINIMUM RH GENERALLY 8-15% IN LOWER
VALLEYS), WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH NV. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30+
MPH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXPOSED TERRAIN
AND VALLEYS.
* PRECIPITATION: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
AND THE TAHOE REGION. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
THE NBM, LEANS SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS, WITH
10-35% FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE TAHOE/TRUCKEE
AREA, AND A 5-15% CHANCE FOR STORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND MONO COUNTY, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN
LOWER, TYPICALLY IN THE 5-10% RANGE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY KTRK HAVING 10% CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 20-03Z
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS TODAY AND 25 KTS TOMORROW. HOWEVER, SIERRA
FRONT TERMINALS HAVE A 40-50% CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS EXCEEDING
30 KTS.
SATURDAY KEEPS THE HIGHER IMPACTS WITH SW-W GUSTS OF 25-35 KT AT
THE MAIN TERMINALS. FL100 FO 30-40 KTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS
OF TURBULENCE, CROSSWINDS, AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN VERY
LARGE AFTERNOON VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICITS (40-50 HPA), ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NV LOWER VALLEYS, WHERE RH FALLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, WITH
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF NEAR CRITICAL ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WHERE SW-W GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH OVERLAP RECEPTIVE GRASSES AND BRUSH OVER WESTERN NV
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES.
SATURDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARRIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING. SOUTHWEST-WEST GUSTS OVER 35
MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CA, WITH MINIMUM RH GENERALLY 8-18% IN LOWER VALLEYS. LONGER
CRITICAL WIND/RH OVERLAP SUPPORTS ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY CURED. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY FROM 11AM TO 11PM.
HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ420-423-429-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING CAZ278.
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