483
FXUS65 KREV 032008
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
108 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TYPICAL WINDS FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
* RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR NE CA, NW NV, AND THE TAHOE
BASIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY FOR NE CA AND NW NV.
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF TS MARIE,
BUT AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING THIS HOUR IN WESTERN LASSEN
AND PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY. LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT
AMOUNTS, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.01-0.10 INCHES SINCE
MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS MATERIALIZED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING,
WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN AND 84 MPH ON
MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN. WINDS HAVE CALMED THROUGHOUT TODAY, BUT STILL
REMAIN BREEZY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
* FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY (>60%) CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, GENERALLY
FROM NORTHERN MONO COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY. THESE
AREAS HAVE A LIKELY (>70%) CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES. FOR
WESTERN NV, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (50-80%) IN WASHOE COUNTY,
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE RENO AREA AND INTO WESTERN PERSHING COUNTY.
* ON FRIDAY, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND NE CA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE CRESTS WHERE THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 0.10". OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE WESTERN US.
* FOR THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH THIS LOW IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR COLDER SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL NEAR FREEZING. TOWARD NE CA AND NORTHERN
WASHOE, THERE IS A BETTER 40-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW.
* A SLIGHT WARMING TREND STARTS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
BACK UP IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEYS. THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF ANY MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE
WILL WORK NORTH IN THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ENSEMBLES HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KTRK/KTVL TODAY
(BY 19Z) WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT SITES TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KMMH.
FL100 WINDS WILL RANGE UP TO 50-60 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING,
CREATING LLWS FOR ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT SITES. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KTS.
-GIRALTE/MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002>004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071>073.
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