452  
FXUS65 KREV 232104  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
204 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK  
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE  
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER, COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR  
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
VERY LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY.  
IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION  
TONIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN  
EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE  
REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW  
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER  
70S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE  
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS.  
 
GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES MONDAY NIGHT  
AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT INCREASES. RIDGE  
GUSTS MAY REACH 30-40 MPH.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TUESDAY THEN RISE TO WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR  
90 FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S  
FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
 
 
THE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH A  
STRONG RIDGE TOWARDS THE WEST, EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA,  
AND A TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE U.S. MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP  
THE WEST COAST HIGH AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
THINGS START TO CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC  
COAST DEGRADES WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE. AS OF NOW, A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA  
DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WEST  
WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  
BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT TAKING PLACE AT  
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT TIMES WITH THE EC BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE  
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WETTER.  
NEVERTHELESS, WITH THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FOR THE  
WEEKEND, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SHAKE UP THE STAGNANT WEATHER  
PERIOD WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING AND OPEN UP THE ACTIVE WEATHER  
DOOR.  
 
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE  
TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER  
DAYTIME HIGHS, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION. SINCE IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL MODEL  
GUIDANCE WHEN IT COMES TO THE OVERALL POSITIONING OF THE LOW.  
-LAGUARDIA  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY, RIDGE WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH PRESENT GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 KTS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO  
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY DROPPING OFF  
BY NIGHTFALL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND THE  
SAME WAY COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.  
 
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED  
THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR ALL AREA  
TERMINALS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT  
AND INTO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS THE  
NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END  
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS GROWING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. -LAGUARDIA  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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