100
FXUS65 KREV 060900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE OREGON BORDER AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NV SOUTHWARD TO MONO
COUNTY.
* TYPICAL JULY WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY POSING MINOR FIRE AND
RECREATION IMPACTS.
* HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK
ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY'S SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST CA/SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, WITH ABOUT 80
TOTAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SPOTTY WETTING
RAINFALL UP TO NEAR 0.30". ELSEWHERE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA TO
FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NV, A SWATH OF THICKER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR SIERRA SITES AND 80S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED.
FOR TODAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FAVORING TWO AREAS:
1) SURPRISE VALLEY/FAR NORTHWEST NV AND 2) WEST CENTRAL NV (MAINLY
LYON/S CHURCHILL/MINERAL COUNTIES) AND MONO COUNTY. WITH LESS
ORGANIZED FORCING, STORMS THAT FORM TODAY ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
SHORTER DURATION, PULSE-TYPE CELLS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
VERY SMALL HAIL, AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 40 MPH. A FEW STORMS COULD
ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ZEPHYR
BOUNDARY EAST OF RENO-CARSON-MINDEN. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME
FOR TODAY'S CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 3-8 PM WITH A FEW STRAY CELLS AS
EARLY AS 1 PM OR AS LATE AS 10 PM.
WITHOUT THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR EARLY
JULY AVERAGES OF LOWER-MID 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT WEAKER TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN CA/WESTERN NV, ESSENTIALLY
ENDING THE THREAT FOR PM T-STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR JULY,
MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW-MID 80S NEAR THE
SIERRA WITH DECENT COOLING OVERNIGHT. ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES WITH
GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND BRIEF GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON RH DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NV WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH
DAYS. A PROLONGED GUSTY WIND EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT WITH
THE DRIER CONDITIONS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY BECOMING MORE
LIMITED, IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMAIN FIRE-SAFE AND AVOID ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE IN DRY VEGETATION.
LATER THIS WEEK, THE WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ALLOWS FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB UPWARD A
BIT ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HEAT PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS TO WESTERN NV VALLEYS (WITH MODERATE TO
ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK), WHILE SIERRA LOCATIONS PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 80S.
AS WE GET TO NEXT WEEK, A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA-NV
WILL DIRECT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS RETURNING MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL EASE BACK A BIT
BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN TO PERSIST
INTO MID-JULY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 21-03Z, ABOUT 10-15% AT KMMH AND LESS THAN 10% AT THE
OTHER MAIN TERMINALS, BUT THEN DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
TYPICAL PM BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AT THE MAIN TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT MOST DAYS BETWEEN 22-04Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT
COULD OCCUR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FOR THE FAR WESTERN NV
SITES SOUTHWARD TO KMMH. FOR KTVL/KTRK, WINDS THIS WEEK WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page