092
FXUS65 KREV 062238
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
238 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
RIDGE WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM
TAHOE NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER.
* AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
* A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN MAY RETURN BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT
CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE COAST OF BC THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
MODELS SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THIS PATTERN PROGRESSION
WILL ALLOW FOR A ~50-70% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
AFTER 3 PM WITHIN NE CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THAT MAY LAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY DRY, CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF US-50. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN WESTERN NV WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES LOOK TO HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE SIERRA
AND MARTIS VALLEYS, SO PLEASE USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH
THOSE AREAS.
AFTER THE TAPERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCLUDE IN THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
ALOFT SIGNALS LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE SOME HAZY SKIES FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION
ESPECIALLY DURING MORNING INVERSIONS. THIS PATTERN ALSO SIGNALS A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GOING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN NV VALLEYS CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S RANGE IN THE FORECAST ON
MONDAY. THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS SHOWING A 50%
CHANCE TO TIE THE RECORD FOR THE 11/10 DATE WHICH STANDS
CURRENTLY AT 74F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN ON VETERANS DAY
IF NOT A DEGREE OR 2 COOLER, BUT OVERALL IT IS CURRENTLY SHAPING
UP TO BE A PLEASANT HOLIDAY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BEYOND THE HOLIDAY, EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE SIERRA ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS START TO INCREASE A
BIT WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING A COOLING TREND. BUT BY NEXT THURSDAY,
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS GOOD DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AS IT UNFOLDS, SO PLEASE WATCH FOR FUTURE UPDATES. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY GENERALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF US-50 WITHIN THE REGION. THE
18Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER GENERALLY BETWEEN 07/00Z-12Z. KTRK ONCE
AGAIN SEES A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG BETWEEN 07/12Z-18Z WHICH MAY
CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, A LONGER STRETCH OF VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IS ON
TAP FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MAIN TERMINALS (EXCEPT
DAILY CHANCES FOR MORNING FZFG AROUND KTRK). -MJD/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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