976
FXUS65 KREV 052020
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
120 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
AND AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS.
* INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY BRING
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER FIRE RISKS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.
* SOME COOLING RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE AVERAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ARE APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY, WITH
GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
OF UP TO 30 MPH TODAY. SEVERAL AREA LAKES WILL SEE CHOPPY WAVES,
WHILE THE WATER MAY SEEM TEMPTING WITH ALL THE RECENT WARMTH, IT
IS ADVISED TO STAY DRY AND FIND ANOTHER WAY TO COOL OFF. WITH ALL
THE HEAT BUILDING UNDER THE RIDGE THAT GOT US TO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, A MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARM WINDY CONDITIONS
COMES THE DRYING OF FUELS DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, WHICH
HAS INITIATED A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR
TODAY. THIS SET UP WILL LEAD US INTO TOMORROW'S RED FLAG WARNING
AS POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND INCREASING WINDS ARRIVE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE UPPER JET PERFORMING ITS NORTHWARD MIGRATION FOR THE
SUMMER MONTHS, THE MAIN UPPER STEERING FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TOMORROW, FOR
EXAMPLE, A TROUGH WILL GLIDE ALONG THE JET POSITIONED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER, WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS. GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL REACH 40+ MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, INTO WESTERN NEVADA. BLOWING DUST (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE) AND CHOPPY LAKES ARE TWO IMPACTS THAT MAY
CONCERN TRAVELERS AND RECREATIONAL INTERESTS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
THE DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE LED
TO THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, DETAILS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO
PROMPTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER MANY AREA LAKES. COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THIS INTRODUCTION OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND.
OUR WEATHER THEME CHANGES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN, YET ANOTHER LOW
SWOOPS IN FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DROPS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DELIVERING A ONE-TWO- REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS PARTICULAR FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
OREGON BORDER (30-60%) AND INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA (20-50%,
BETTER CHANCES ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN). THESE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS LINGER, BUT LESSEN SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY, WHERE THE SAME
AREAS SUMMON CHANCES OF 20-40% ALONG THE OREGON BORDER AND 30-50%
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA. SHOWERS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AHEAD
OF DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, LEAVING BEHIND COOL NORTHERLY BREEZES.
FOR THURSDAY, THE TROUGH POSITION SEEMS TO HINT AT EASTERLY WINDS
KICKING UP SOME GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA, BUT DETAILS ON SPEEDS ARE
TO BE DETERMINED AS THE FORECAST DRAWS NEARER. WITH THE RECENT
MOISTURE DEPOSITED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT HIGHER, WHICH LESSENS THE CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL USHER IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC. HRICH
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY,
HOWEVER INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING GUSTS TO 30 KTS
TODAY, AND UP TO 40+ KTS FOR SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
AND LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY FOR TERMINALS IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. JUSTIN/HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WITH POOR RECOVERIES OVERLAP RECEPTIVE FUELS OVER WESTERN NV AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
SATURDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVE
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WARMING AND DRYING. WESTERLY GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CA, WITH MINIMUM RH RANGING 9-16% IN LOWER VALLEYS. LONGER CRITICAL
WIND/RH OVERLAP SUPPORTS UP TO 9-10 HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NV AND INTO EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM. OHTER AREAS SUCH
AS LOWER MONO COUNTY VALLEYS, TO INCLUDE THE CHALFANT VALLEY WILL
ALSO SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY. JUSTIN/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ420-423-429-
458.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ001-004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ278.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.
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