575
FXUS65 KREV 110908
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY, BRINGING AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.
* A MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE STARTING SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HOTTEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NV
VALLEYS, CHALFANT VALLEY, AND NEAR HONEY LAKE. OUR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO OUR ESE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC
NW. 700MB TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER WESTERN NV RANGE FROM 15-18C,
WHICH IF MIXED DOWN, MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 99-104F. A HEAT ADVISORY STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
PERSHING, CHURCHILL, MINERAL, AND LYON COUNTIES BECAUSE OF THIS
HEAT, SO BE SURE TO CARRY SOME WATER WITH YOU TODAY!
BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, ROBUST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAG A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS STARTING SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY, THERE
ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE OFF THE WEST COAST THAT ARE
COMPETING WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND DRAWS UP THAT
MOISTURE FROM THE SSE, ALLOWING ANY STORMS TO THRIVE ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA. BUT BY WEDNESDAY, THE SHORTWAVES
APPEAR TO WIN OUT AND SWITCH THE FLOW ALOFT TO MORE OF A SW FLOW,
DRAWING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL. THIS WILL
LIKELY SHUT OFF OR STRONGLY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
WEEK. ONCE WE GET TO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND THOUGH, WE COULD SEE
THE HIGH PRESSURE REGAIN IT'S DOMINANCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND START PULLING UP MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AGAIN.
THAT BEING SAID, ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE AND HAVE MORE OF A WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 10-10.7 DEGC/KM, FAST STORM
MOTIONS OF 20+ KT, AND SURFACE RHS 10-15%. DCAPE VALUES FROM THE
LATEST CAMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE ARE BETWEEN 1000-1200 J/KG,
INDICATING WIND GUSTS FROM OUTFLOWS COULD EASILY GET TO 45-55
MPH. THEN ON MONDAY, WESTERN NV IS ABLE TO GENERATE MORE POTENTIAL
ENERGY FROM THE INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MAIN CONCERNS
THEN SHIFT TO SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING IF STORMS START TO TRAIN. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
THESE STORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF I-80, THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CA AND NORTH OF I-80 CAN SEE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES. MUCH OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY FOR ALL THE SAME
AREAS. THEN BY WEDNESDAY, THE DRY AIR DOMINATES AND WE END UP WITH
A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MONO COUNTY.
WE'LL HAVE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION AS THESE STORMS GET CLOSER IN
TIME, BUT FOR NOW JUST BE AWARE OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER HAZARDS
EARLY THIS WEEK!
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. TOWARDS THIS EVENING, A LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL SCT-BKN
CLOUDS MOVES IN. TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15-25KT FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, KMMH, AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE.
-JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
* BREEZY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY,
SURPRISE VALLEY, AND NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL OVERLAP WITH
7-12% RH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ROUGHLY 1-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THIS, WE'RE ANTICIPATING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* A MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL USHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST US. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STARTS OUTSIDE OF WETTER RAIN
CORES, BUT STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUITE WET MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A HIGHER HEAVY RAIN RISK.
-EDAN /JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ001-
004.
CA...NONE.
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