422
FXUS65 KREV 030911
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
211 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED FOR RECREATION AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, HAIL, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.
* COOL, SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SNOW MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 8000 FEET MONDAY.
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
YESTERDAY'S STORMS WERE ABOUT RIGHT ON PAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH REPORTS COMING IN OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY, STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PIVOTING RIGHT
OVER LAKE TAHOE, EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CA ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO
CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IS SNEAKING AROUND THE LOW THAT'S SITTING
OFF THE CA COAST. ALL OF THIS ALONG WITH OTHER INGREDIENTS WILL
CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONE FACTOR THAT
WE'RE NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT BUT MAY HINDER THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORMS A BIT IS THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. WE CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING FROM LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY. BUT
AGAIN, JUDGING BY WHAT THE CAMS ARE SHOWING, THIS SHOULDN'T BE A
HUGE ISSUE.
SO LET'S DIVE INTO IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
AROUND 12 PM OVER THE SIERRA CREST NEAR THE GREATER TAHOE AREA.
THEY WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA FRONT, WESTERN NV, AND
SIERRA/PLUMAS/LASSEN COUNTIES. CURRENT POPS ARE 40-60% ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA, AND 70-80% ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
FROM MONO COUNTY UP INTO PLUMAS COUNTY. CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING ARE AROUND 20-30%. OUR AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.45-0.6". MUCAPE PEAKS AT
900-1200 J/KG OVER THE GREATER TAHOE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
DCAPE IS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA AT 900-1100
J/KG. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH UP TO
55-60 MPH, SO BE AWARE OF THAT IF YOU HAVE ANYTHING OUTSIDE THAT
CAN BLOW AWAY. ESTIMATED HAIL SIZE OUT OF THESE STORMS IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" IN DIAMETER, ALTHOUGH A STRAY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IF YOU PLAN TO RECREATE OUTDOORS
TODAY, YOU WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. DO NOT GET
CAUGHT OUT IN THESE STORMS IF YOU DON'T HAVE TO. STAY UP TO DATE
ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, AND AS ALWAYS: WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS!
STORMS WILL START TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING AFTER 8 PM,
WITH ANOTHER WAVE A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AROUND 2- 6 AM OVER WESTERN NV PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA FROM I-80
SOUTHWARD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ALSO DROP OFF MONDAY TO 7500-8000 FEET, SO THERE IS A 70%
CHANCE THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN MONO COUNTY GET 2+ INCHES OF SNOW.
MOST LIKELY RANGE IS 2-5" THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, JUST BE
AWARE THAT WE'LL STILL HAVE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET IN AND
WE'LL WARM UP TO THE MID 80S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND MID 70S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL TERMINALS. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER IN THE SIERRA (70-80%)
AND LOWER INTO WESTERN NV (40-60%). CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE
20-30% THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH THESE STORMS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (50-60 MPH),
AND SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 1"). LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WHICH MAY CAUSE MOUNTAINTOP OBSCURATIONS. MORE STORMS ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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