770
FXUS65 KREV 250804
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
104 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO A DRY COLD FRONT, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
* A SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
* THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NV AND THE
EASTERN SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
A DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS AS OF MIDNIGHT ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 40-45 MPH ON THE RIDGES,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH RIDGETOP
GUSTS BETWEEN 65-75 MPH. MEANWHILE, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF US-50 IN WESTERN NV, AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM PLUMAS COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN. WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG US-395 IN MONO COUNTY AND
THE SIERRA FRONT COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. FOR THAT REASON,
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING
TAHOE AND PYRAMID. ALSO, THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING; SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FINALLY, SMOKE FROM THE DOME FIRE SW OF YOSEMITE MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE IN MONO COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ALL SHOW A TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS THEN FORMS INTO AN UPPER LOW
THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NV BY LATE MONDAY. LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS COLDER LOW WILL DROP TO AROUND
8,500 FEET, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ALSO, SIERRA VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HAVE LIKELY
CHANCES FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE PATTERN MOVING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD NEXT FRIDAY.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
FL100 WINDS OF 40-45KTS RESULTING IN INCREASED MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND LLWS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THIS MORNING.
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV TERMINALS WILL HAVE INCREASING W-SW
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z TO 03Z.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR KNFL AND
KLOL, WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE DOWN TO 6SM. -MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF
US-50, WHILE WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG US-395 IN MONO COUNTY AND
THE SIERRA FRONT COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM RH WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND
FAR N.WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED DUE TO THESE HIGHER RH, BUT W.NEVADA AREAS HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE LOWER RH EXPECTED. FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ002>004.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ420-421.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ423-429.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ071>073.
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