161
FXUS65 KREV 161829
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1129 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
* CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY MID-LATE
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY E/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FIRE CONCERNS IN FAR NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV, AND ALSO IN
MINERAL COUNTY. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT, A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SE-S WINDS (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) IS
STILL INDICATED OVER MINERAL AND SE CHURCHILL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON WALKER LAKE.
LIGHTER WINDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
FOR A RETURN OF MODEST ZEPHYR-TYPE SOUTHWEST/WEST BREEZES (GUSTS
20-25 MPH) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE SIERRA.
FOR NEXT WEEK, AN APPROACHING STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED S-SW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS STORM'S APPROACH
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF WINDS AND
ALSO CAP THE SPEEDS A BIT WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE
FROM THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS NORTHWARD TO THE OR BORDER. THESE WINDS
WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, THIS STORM APPEARS TO SHOW A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF STALLING OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND REDUCING
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THEN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, A MORE VARIED STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
CURRENTLY THE EASTERN SIERRA AND TAHOE ARE FAVORED WITH 50-70%
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DROPPING TO A BROADER 25-50%
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OR EVEN HAVE A DELAYED ONSET
UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK, AS SOME SCENARIOS HOLD THE LOW OFFSHORE
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING INLAND AS A WEAKER SYSTEM. A FEW WETTER
OUTCOMES ARE STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
RANGES, BUT AT THIS TIME A LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS MORE
LIKELY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE NEXT
WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S-MID 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER-MID 50S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. MJD
EAST FL100 WINDS OF 30-35 KT WILL MAINTAIN MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE CONCERNS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL THESE
WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MAIN TERMINALS,
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH
02-03Z THIS EVENING, EXCEPT KCXP/KMMH WHICH ARE MORE PRONE TO
INCREASED WINDS FROM THIS DIRECTION COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS
PREVAILING SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHWEST BREEZES WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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