315
FXUS65 KREV 252201
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
301 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, THEN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING AVIATION, RECREATION, AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
* SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FORECAST TODAY, BUT
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BC TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THIS LOW
TRACKING DOWN TO OVER THE WA COAST LATE TODAY. AT THE SURFACE,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE WA/OR
COAST. THIS MEANS THAT INCREASED WINDS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME CONCERNS IN THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST IS SHOWING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON IN NE CA AND NW NV
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40-45 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES (INCLUDING
LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE) AND RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREAS TODAY WHERE THE FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERN
ARE THE GREATEST. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION,
BUT PLEASE KEEP THESE WINDS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE ANY MEMORIAL DAY
OUTDOOR PLANS FOR LATER TODAY. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS IN W NV WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
LOOK TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25-35 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE LAST
DAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH THE W NV VALLEYS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND THE
SIERRA COMMUNITIES HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (~15%) LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF US-50 TODAY. THE
WINDOW HAS OPENED IN MONO, S. LYON, AND W. MINERAL COUNTIES WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS ALREADY POPPING UP. COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO MORE OF W NV BEFORE ENDING AROUND 9 PM THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE TODAY, BUT PLEASE BE
WEATHER AWARE IN CASE A STORM DEVELOPS NEAR YOUR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TODAY. OVERNIGHT, SIERRA RIDGE WINDS PICK UP QUITE A
BIT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 75-85 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS OR AND OVER THE CWA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AS THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY NORMALS.
INCREASED WINDS (GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH) WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY THOUGH DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND DAY OF LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WITHIN
THE REGION (REFER TO THE PRODUCT FOR DETAILS). CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (55-85%) ARE EXPECTED FOR NE CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY, BUT COVERAGE THEN SPREADS INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AS WELL
AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES BY THE
EVENING HOURS. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 6.5-7.5 KFT SO
SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLY MIXED IN WITH RAIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THAT SEE SHOWERS. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THERE IS AROUND A
20-25% CHANCE THAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN PLUMAS, SIERRA, NEVADA, AND S. LASSEN COUNTIES WITH
ADJACENT COUNTIES SEEING A ~15% CHANCE. MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND
100-200 J/KG OF CAPE IN THESE AREAS, SO BE PREPARED IN CASE A
STORM DEVELOPS NEAR YOUR LOCATION. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COLDER DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS
BEING IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S RANGE AND THE SIERRA
COMMUNITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL RESIDE GENERALLY OVER
THE CWA THOUGH POSSIBLY WOBBLING AROUND A BIT. THIS WILL PUSH IN
MORE COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH, DROPPING AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE. W NV AND NE CA VALLEY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL
HAVE WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND THE LOWER 50S
AND THURSDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S RANGE. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
CWA ARE TO BE EXPECTED ON THESE TWO DAYS AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS ARE
NOW FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 5.5-6 KFT ON EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 7-7.5 KFT DURING BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS MORE OR LESS STABILIZE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE RISING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. THE LATEST
SNOWFALL FORECAST SHOWS THE HIGHEST SIERRA PEAKS AROUND THE TAHOE
REGION WITH UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
PEAKS IN MONO COUNTY SEEING UP TO AROUND 6 INCHES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THESE TOTALS
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS
TIME, SO WILL BE MONITORING HOW IT PANS OUT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOWER SIERRA ELEVATIONS, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY CURRENTLY SEES
MORE WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES (15-30%). PRECIPITATION LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY AND GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25-30 KT FOR
WESTERN NV TERMINALS AND AROUND 25 KT FOR THE SIERRA/TAHOE AREA
TERMINALS. KMMH MAY SEE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 26/05Z. AS FL100 WINDS STILL EXPECT TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 60-70 KT, TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS ARE
LIKELY, WHILE GUSTS OF 25-30+ KT COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR KTVL/KTRK.
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT TO
A W-NW DIRECTION FOR MOST TERMINALS (KTVL SEES SSW WINDS) WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 KT ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE. MJD/078
FIRE WEATHER
* RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV, INCLUDING PERSHING COUNTY WHERE
THE QUARTZ FIRE CONTINUES TO BURN IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THAT
COUNTY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 10-20%. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY
GOING INTO THE NIGHT.
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXTENT OF VEGETATION THAT HAS DRIED OUT
SUFFICIENTLY, BUT INFORMATION FROM LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS AND THE
GROWTH OF THE QUARTZ FIRE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF CURED GRASSES AND
SAGEBRUSH WILL BE CAPABLE OF CARRYING FIRE IN VALLEYS/MIDSLOPES OF
FAR NORTHWEST NV. FARTHER SOUTH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRESENT, BUT THE LATEST FUEL MOISTURE DATA FROM LOCAL FIRE
PARTNERS ISN'T SHOWING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DRY VEGETATION.
* GUSTY WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF US-50 IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AND THE US-6 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY COULD SEE A SHORT DURATION OF NEAR-CRITICAL
WIND AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HUMIDITY RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WETTING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MJD/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ458.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
NVZ001.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ423.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
NVZ004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ270-278.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ073.
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