890
FXUS65 KREV 102128
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA, THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA.
* GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS PEAKING ON SATURDAY BRINGING IMPACTS TO
FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, AND RECREATION.
* A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM UP.
DISCUSSION
WE GOT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE HREF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST. ANY IMPACTS WITH THESE SHOULD BE MINOR.
THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER IS ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION AND RECREATION. LAKE WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY IN SEVERAL
LAKES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, THE SIERRA AND NE CA. HOWEVER, MORE
WINDS ARE COMING ON SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
THE PACNW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET SETTING OVER
NORTHERN CA/NV AND SOUTHERN OR, AND A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
INVERSION NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL AROUND THE SIERRA CREST LEVEL
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE TREND HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE, WE ISSUED WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE NV BASIN AND RANGE, NORTHERN WASHOE,
NE CA, AND THE TAHOE BASIN. THE AREA WHERE WE HAVE THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE, WHERE WE COULD SEE
THOSE DOWNSLOPE WINDS, IS FROM THE SIERRA FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MONO COUNTY. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH. WE WILL CHOOSE TOMORROW IF A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A
WIND ADVISORY IS THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCT. REGARDLESS, WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG I-580 AND US-395 FROM JANESVILLE DOWN TO SONORA
JUNCTION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH WITH A 10-40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 55 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ARE ALSO LIKELY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE AND
THE NV BASIN AND RANGE.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN
INTO THE 70S FOR LOWER VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY CLIMB UP AROUND
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING IN OUR REGION.
-HC
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE LOWER VIS AND CIG
ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST SITES, AND THROUGH 06Z FOR KHTH, KNFL AND
KLOL.
WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
WEEK ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY GUSTS COULD BE UP TO 60 KTS. AREAS OF
LLWS AND TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW MORNING OVER
THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO MOST
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHOE,
EASTERN LASSEN, CHURCHILL, AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES. THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% WILL ACCOMPANY WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-35 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRODUCTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AREAS ARE ISOLATED AND THE TIMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT, BUT IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE PLANNING
FORECAST.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
AND 55-65 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. MIN RH INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 10-
20%, HOWEVER, THE STRONG WINDS WILL OVERCOME ANY INCREASE IN RH.
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES, EXCEPT FOR
271 AND 272 WHICH INCLUDE FROM WESTERN LASSEN TO EASTERN SIERRA
COUNTIES AND THE TAHOE BASIN. THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY TO
STRONG WINDS BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ABOVE 25%. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY DUE TO THE
GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS VERY SLOWLY
COME DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
-HC/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ458.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002-004-
005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ002>004.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ420-421.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT NVZ003.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ423-429.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING CAZ270-278.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ070>072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT CAZ073.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING CAZ274.
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