234
FXUS65 KREV 080848
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
148 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
* A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING, ALONG WITH 50-70% CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UPWARDS OF 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY. WE'LL SEE MOSTLY MID TO
UPPER 80S IN WESTERN NV, NORTHEAST CA, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF MONO COUNTY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR
EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID
80S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER OVER A WEEK OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER,
WE'RE IN STORE FOR A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVING FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. A POTENT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH IS POISED
TO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PRODUCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO RECREATION, TRAVEL, AND AVIATION.
WE ARE ALSO GOING TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT COOLING, AS WELL AS VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT,
NW NEVADA, AND NE CALIFORNIA. WHEN WE COMBINED THESE WINDS WITH
THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND NW
NEVADA FRIDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HUMIDITY VALUES, ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE INNER BASIN
AND RANGES. MEANWHILE, RIDGETOP WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 60-80 MPH. BOTTOM LINE, WINDS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY CREATE DANGEROUS RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
ON AREA LAKES, AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG WIND PRONE AREAS
IN W NEVADA, E LASSEN, AND MONO COUNTY.
BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER SCALE
PATTERN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION, PULLING IN ADDITIONAL REMNANT MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE
RACHEL INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (50-70%) ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 IN W NEVADA, AS WELL AS
FROM SOUTHERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA. AREAS NORTH OF I-80 IN W NEVADA AND NE CALIFORNIA HAVE A
20-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WE RETAIN
A COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST LIQUID TOTALS IN THE SIERRA FROM
SOUTHERN LASSEN INTO MONO COUNTY, AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 IN W
NEVADA. THESE AREAS HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID. SNOW ABOVE 8,000 TO 9,000 FEET IS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE TAHOE
BASIN SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. FINALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
DRASTIC COOLDOWN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING WHILE W NEVADA VALLEYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH SIERRA RIDGE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 50-70 KTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE POTENTIAL INCREASES ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST,
WITH PERIODS OF LLWS POSSIBLE WHERE VALLEY WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER.
REGIONAL SURFACE WIND IMPACTS PEAK WITH SATURDAY'S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SHOWER CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES SUNDAY EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT SIERRA TERMINALS.
KRNO...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 21Z FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE
FAVORED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING CROSSWIND
CONCERNS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IF
TERMINAL WINDS DIMINISH BENEATH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT.
-JOHNSTON
FIRE WEATHER
THE SEASON’S FIRST POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NE
CALIFORNIA AND W.NEVADA. WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
FRIDAY:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL REACH 25-35 MPH AS MINIMUM RH FALLS TO
10-17%. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER, THOUGH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EXTEND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NE CALIFORNIA AND NW
NEVADA, INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 270, 278, AND 458.
SATURDAY:
WINDS PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY SEE
CONTINUED ELEVATED CONCERNS WITH A MORE MARGINAL MINIMUM RH OF
15-20% ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY ONWARD:
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL DROP 20-25 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY, REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS W.NEVADA AND LOW 50S IN
E.SIERRA COMMUNITIES. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY-
MONDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80, AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
RACHEL MOVES NORTHWARD. THE MOISTURE’S TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS STILL SHOW HIGHER UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN WETTER. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. FUENTES/MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ270-278.
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