523
FXUS65 KREV 050900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY, POSING A RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS.
* TYPICAL JULY HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS POSING MINOR FIRE AND RECREATION IMPACTS.
* HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HEAT RISK PROBABLE BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC ASCENT/UPPER CLOUD DECK
OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN STATES. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHWARD,
SO WILL A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS--FIRST ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
US-50 IN THE MORNING, THEN MOVING TOWARDS/NORTH OF I-80 IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BAND
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS ON IF SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL COMPENSATE FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW 15% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA--INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN
AREA.
FARTHER NORTH, LESSER CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS LASSEN COUNTY, THE SURPRISE
VALLEY, AND N WASHOE COUNTY, SUPPORTING A 15-30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NEW LIGHTNING FIRES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP TODAY, AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER
ARE FAVORED FOR NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS GIVEN IT'S WHERE STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE IS GREATEST.
DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE AFTER
TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO YIELD A COUPLE
DISTINCT AREAS OF 10-15% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON: 1)
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND 2) THE BROADER MONO-MINERAL-LYON COUNTY
VICINITY. FURTHER DRYING WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES (80S IN THE SIERRA; 90S IN LOWER VALLEYS) WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK BEFORE SETTLING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HEAT WAVE FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FLIRT 90F IN THE SIERRA AND
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE HINTS OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH MORE HEAT DURING THE WEEK OF JULY 13TH, WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ADVERTISED WEATHER PATTERN.
-SALAS
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES OF A LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
WITH 10-20% ODDS OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS TAHOE AND SIERRA
FRONT TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LIGHT MORNING WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH
TYPICAL WEST GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. FUENTES/SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. REFER TO THE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. -SALAS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE E SIERRA TODAY AND COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED, FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
AREAS ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT COULD SEE AREAS OF
BANDED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A 10-15% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DRY STRIKES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF E LASSEN COUNTY INTO THE SURPRISE
VALLEY, AND FAR N WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OREGON BORDER (15-20%
CHANCE). A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS, WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. ANY NEW IGNITIONS COULD
RAPIDLY SPREAD WITH THESE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
IN ADDITION, THIS PASSING WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS DUE TO A WIND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA/NW NEVADA, MAINLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 278
AND 458. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 25-35 MPH WITH MINIMUM RH DIPPING TO
10-15%. FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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