764
FXUS65 KREV 170748
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1248 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS
THE REGION.
* AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASE THE FIRE RISK MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST CA
AND NORTHWEST NV.
* INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAINTAINING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THIS WEEK, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 90S FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND MID 80S FOR THE SIERRA. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15-20 MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WEEKEND WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ALLOWING A PACIFIC TROUGH TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SHIFTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA, WITH
POPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10-30% FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE VALLEYS
AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE SIERRA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION LATE
WEEK IS MODERATE, WITH SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. INCREASED
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY THIS WEEK.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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