811
FXUS65 KREV 191001
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
301 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK IN THE
NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS TEMPERATURES BECOME
MILDER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
* THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO FIRE,
RECREATION, TRAVEL AND AVIATION.
* A WARMING TREND RESUMES FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, THE
CWA SITS BETWEEN A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WHILE
PUSHING THE RIDGE OUT TO THE EAST. WITH THIS SETUP ALOFT AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECT TO DECREASE TODAY BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THURSDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE AND SIERRA
COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S RANGE. WHILE WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REGION, PORTIONS OF THE NV BASIN AND RANGE SUCH AS
HAWTHORNE AND LOVELOCK MAY SEE MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STILL WARMING UP TO THE MIDDLE 90S. GENERALLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25-35 MPH.
THIS TROUGH NOT ONLY WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE RECENT HEAT, BUT
CAUSE ALSO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO THOSE FROM THURSDAY. THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MOSTLY IN NE CA THIS MORNING. RECENT RUNS OF CAMS SUPPORT
AROUND A 15-30% FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODOC, LASSEN, AND PLUMAS
COUNTIES THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH PORTIONS OF NV NORTH OF I-80
HAVING ~15% OR LESS AS WELL. BY MID-MORNING, SHOWERS IN NE CA AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN WASHOE BECOME A BIT MORE SCATTERED BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% IN THESE AREAS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING AROUND A 40-80% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING AROUND NOON FOR THE QUAD COUNTY AREA THAT SPREADS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NV BASIN AND RANGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS NOT MENTIONED WITH THOSE ABOVE IN
THE REGION WILL SEE AROUND A 15-25% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CAMS THEN HAVE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
MOSTLY IN PERSHING AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES BY THE TIME THE
EVENING HITS WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS EXIT TO THE NORTH.
CHANCES THAT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THESE SHOWERS TODAY LOOK
TO BE AROUND 15-40% WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES IN NE CA AND THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE QPF VALUES FOR TODAY RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE TO
AROUND 0.25 INCHES, SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING PWAT VALUES UP TO AROUND
0.8-1.0 INCHES IN NE CA AND W NV. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, THEY ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING
MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH THE QUICKER STORM MOTION
AND HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY, BUT PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR THIS.
WHEN LOOKING AT MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE AND CONTAIN BOTH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN SIZE
TODAY. INCREASED OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO CAUSE BLOWING DUST IF
THEY PASS BY DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS IN W NV THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY DUE TO THESE
STORMS AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED QUICK STORM MOTION MAY ALLOW FOR A
MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS. PLEASE HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
ON THIS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IT WOULD ALSO BE A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE
AN ALTERNATE PLAN READY ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL OR BE
OUTDOORS.
ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS ITS DEPARTURE EASTWARD LEAVING SLIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-20%) ALONG THE OR BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES BECOME CLOSER TO
MID-JUNE NORMALS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE
NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WHILE
THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S RANGE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE THEN PROJECTS A RIDGE FEATURE MOVING OVER THE W
CONUS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW
CONUS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SIGNALS DRY CONDITIONS
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN TO WHERE MODERATE
HEATRISK IS SEEN WITHIN W NV BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND LOCALIZED
MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE NV BASIN AND RANGE BY TUESDAY. -078
AVIATION
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL COME FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED IN THE REGION. NE CA AND ADJACENT NV MAY SEE AROUND A 15-
25% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BUT BY AROUND 19/20Z,
NE CA AND THE SIERRA FRONT WILL HAVE CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND A 30-
80%. THESE CHANCES THEN SPREAD INTO THE NV BASIN AND RANGE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SIERRA TAF SITES LOOK TO SEE LESSER CHANCES (<25%),
BUT MAY SEE VICINITY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. STORMS MAY
CONTAIN INCREASED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 55 KTS, BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. TERRAIN OBSCURATION, LLWS AND
TURBULENCE MAY ALSO BE PRESENT NEAR STORM CORES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP OR PASS
NEARBY. OUTSIDE OF THESE POTENTIAL STORMS, TAF SITES EXPECT TO SEE
WEST TO NORTHWEST (SOUTH AT KTVL) WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20-25
KTS (UP TO 30 KTS AT KMMH) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BY 20/06Z, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT GOING INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE OR
BORDER. HRICH/078
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. ANTECEDENT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES HAVE HELPED IN
DRYING FUELS FURTHER WHICH ALSO INCREASES FIRE DANGER.
STORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE QUICKLY TODAY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ONCE
DEVELOPED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORM MODES. THIS INCREASES
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF WET STORM CORES AS
WELL AS DRY STORMS THAT PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING THAN MOISTURE. GUSTY,
ERRATIC OUTFLOWS OF 50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, INCREASING THE THREAT OF
RAPID WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS. NE CA AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT NV
SEES THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEGIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE
COVERAGE SPREADS INTO W NV DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-35 MPH
ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE REGION.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR W NV AND PORTIONS OF NE
CA. SEE DETAILS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT. HRICH/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ458.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ420-
421.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ423-429.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING NVZ004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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