262
FXUS65 KREV 120921
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
221 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, TRAVEL, AND
RECREATION.
* A NOTABLE COOLING TREND LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
A STORM OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK (120-140 KT AT 300 MB) FOR SEPTEMBER
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
STORM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE OR BORDER, WE'LL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF WIND PUSHING OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV
FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
REGION, AND BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS (60+ MPH) CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR US-395/I-580 AND FOOTHILLS
FROM EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS RENO-CARSON VALLEY AND
INTO MONO COUNTY. SEE OUR LATEST WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT AT
WEATHER.GOV/RENO FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED GUSTS, IMPACTS AND
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO TAKE, AND ALSO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
SEGMENT BELOW FOR FIRE-RELATED IMPACTS FROM THIS WIND EVENT.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE PEAK 700 MB WINDS (45-55 KT) REACHING THE
NORTHERN SIERRA/TAHOE REGION DURING THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE MINERAL/SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY, A SHORT PERIOD OF 40+ MPH GUSTS COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS WESTERN NV.
FOR SUNDAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND
THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY EVENING.
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 90+
DEGREES FOR THE US-95 CORRIDOR OF WEST CENTRAL NV TODAY), HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BY 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE MORE FALL-LIKE, WITH 40S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S NEAR THE SIERRA.
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY,
THEN REBOUND TO NEAR MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES IN THE 80S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S NEAR THE SIERRA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE QUIET OVERALL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND LIGHTER WINDS MOST DAYS, ALTHOUGH A
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NV AND KICK UP THE
WINDS A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK. MJD
AVIATION
ROUGH WIND CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION WILL PREVAIL LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL MAIN TERMINALS, WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS
RAMPING UP BETWEEN 17-19Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 03-05Z. EVEN WHEN
SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, FL100/RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL
PERSIST WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 80 KT FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD,
AND 50-60 KT FOR MONO COUNTY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND LLWS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TERMINALS CAN STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT UNTIL
UNTIL EARLY EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BULK
OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MJD
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV THROUGH
2 AM SUNDAY, SO BE EXTRA VIGILANT IN AVOIDING ACTIVITIES THAT
COULD SPARK FIRES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS (PEAK GUSTS 45+
MPH WITH 55-65 MPH FOR WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG US-395), THE
HUMIDITY IS LESS OF A FACTOR, WITH THE WINDS CAPABLE OF RAPIDLY
SPREADING FIRE EVEN IN AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV
WHERE HUMIDITY IS LESS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 15% THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND MONO COUNTY, HUMIDITY
IS PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH PARTS OF THE LAHONTAN BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE CHALFANT VALLEY
IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, FINALLY DECREASING
SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS DROPPING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIMITED HUMIDITY RECOVERY
ESPECIALLY FOR MIDSLOPES/THERMAL BELTS IN WESTERN NV, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ458.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ002>005.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ420-421.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ423-429.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ270-278.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ274.
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