367
FXUS65 KREV 011907
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1207 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS RETURNS FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.
* CURRENT ACTIVE FIRES PRODUCING AREAS OF HAZE AND SMOKE COULD
REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV.
* TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BRING SHORT PERIODS OF ISOLATED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
EARLY AUGUST HEAT WILL HAVE ITS FIRST PEAK TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AT LEAST 100 DEGREES IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
APPROACHING 105 DEGREES ALONG THE US-95 CORRIDOR OF WEST CENTRAL
NV WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10%.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES EASE BACK ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES SUNDAY ACROSS MOST ELEVATIONS, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT DIP
MONDAY, AS BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF 100
DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NV COMMUNITIES. ONE TRADE-OFF OF THIS
BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED HAZE
AND SMOKE FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS TEMPERATURE DIP LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD
NORTHWARD INTO CA/NV. LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING HIGHS
RETURNING TO TRIPLE DIGITS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THURSDAY APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
OVERALL PEAK HEAT (HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY), THIS COULD VARY
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE RIDGE, AND WHETHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE'S NORTHWARD EXPANSION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO
POISED TO CREEP UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, SO HAVING A PLAN TO STAY
SAFE DURING A POTENTIALLY LONGER PERIOD OF HEAT BECOMES MORE
IMPORTANT.
THE CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS WITH WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR RAIN OR T-STORMS, ALTHOUGH BY LATER
NEXT WEEK AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF US-50. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, PM
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES EDGE UPWARD TO NEAR 10% FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS HINT
AT A FURTHER INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US WITH WESTERN NV ON THE FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE PUSH. WHILE IT'S
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER MEANINGFUL RAIN AND T-STORM CHANCES
RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST, THE MAJORITY
OF EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE BACKS OFF FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT NEAR
AND AFTER AUGUST 10. MJD
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DENSITY
ALTITUDE CONCERNS AT WESTERN NV TERMINALS PEAKING TODAY DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 100 DEGREES. DAILY SW-W GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS THIS WEEKEND STARTING 20-22Z AND TAPERING OFF BETWEEN
02-04Z, WITH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WINDS MONDAY-TUESDAY. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ001-004.
CA...NONE.
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