206
FXUS65 KREV 101932
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1232 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY WARM DAYS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
RECORD HIGHS.
* DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL NV.
* SOME COOLING RETURNS BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
MOTHER'S DAY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THEIR PEAK LEVELS SO
FAR THIS YEAR, WITH SEVERAL VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NV SURPASSING
90 DEGREES. SIERRA COMMUNITIES CAN EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES (RENO
NV AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA)--SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
EACH DATE'S CURRENT RECORD HIGHS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A FEW WARMER VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV APPROACHING 95 DEGREES. TYPICAL ZEPHYR-TYPE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES (GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH) ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LATEST NWS HEATRISK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER VALLEYS
OF WESTERN NV IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION IN THE MINOR CATEGORY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED AND LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE SUN DURING THE WARMEST
PARTS OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS AND ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. ALSO, USE EXTRA CAUTION NEAR RIVERS WHICH
REMAIN COLD AND COULD BE FLOWING FAST, PRESENTING A RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA OR LOSS OF BODY CONTROL FROM THE SHOCK OF SUDDEN COLD
WATER EXPOSURE.
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK. INCREASED HEATING WILL LEAD TO CUMULUS FORMATION EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT
VERTICAL GROWTH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRESENT A MORE COMPLEX SCENARIO AS SOME
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SOURCES ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN-WEST CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW THE HIGH-BASED CLOUD
LAYER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (50+ MPH)
FROM SEEMINGLY WEAK-LOOKING SHOWERS. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING SPECIFIC SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
WEATHER ELEMENTS ACROSS WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NV, SO WHILE
THE RISK OF THESE ENHANCED GUSTS IS PRESENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN ALL
THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES
COOLING FROM THEIR NEAR-RECORD LEVELS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES
WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER, IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WIND, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AS TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW,
WITH A NEAR-EQUAL SPLIT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS BETWEEN
A FASTER PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY VS. A SLOWER PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
FIRST RUNS OF HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE COVERING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SEEM TO FAVOR THE FASTER SCENARIO. IN SUMMARY, A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS IN PLAY AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT WITH HIGHER CHANCES (25-40%) FAVORING
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV, WHILE
INCREASED WINDS (GUSTS 30-40 MPH) SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NV. WE'LL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AS WELL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY SLOWER STORM TRACK, ALTHOUGH THIS
SCENARIO WOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS FOR
EITHER DAY.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
NORTHERN CA-NV. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND BUT SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (MID-UPPER
70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS/UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES), WITH TYPICAL ZEPYHR-TYPE BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS FOR WESTERN NV
TERMINALS DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-03Z. MJD
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR RENO, NV THAT HAVE POTENTIAL TO
BE BROKEN OR TIED (TODAY-TUESDAY):
MAY 10: 88 F, SET IN 1934.
MAY 11: 90 F, SET IN 2001 AND 2013.
MAY 12: 89 F, SET IN 1959 AND 2013.
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, CA THAT HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN OR TIED (TODAY-TUESDAY):
MAY 10: 75 F, SET IN 2025.
MAY 11: 78 F, SET IN 2013.
MAY 12: 79 F, SET IN 1988 AND 1996.
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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