640
FXUS65 KREV 220839
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE LIKELY IN NE CA
AND NORTHWEST NV NEAR THE OR BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
* WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
* STILL EXPECTING INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS AFFECTING OUR AREA YESTERDAY
CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS EASTERN IDAHO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT
OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-80, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SURPRISE VALLEY, LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PER THE HREF AND RRFS. SOME STRAY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE QUAD COUNTIES AREA, AND
LAKE TAHOE, BUT CHANCES ARE AROUND 5% OR LESS.
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST, OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL TRY TO INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO,
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID-80S, AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES IN
THE MID-70S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB UP THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING TO THE UPPER 80S VALLEYS,
AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC STARTS TO SWING INTO THE PACNW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BY FRIDAY,
THE FIRST WAVE PLUNGES THROUGH THE PACNW. THIS POTENTIALLY LEADS
TO THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH WITH STRONGER WINDS, SO THE
TREND IS GOING UP. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A 20-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG THE US-395 CORRIDOR.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEAKER
WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG AT THE MOMENT. THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND SYSTEMS
APPEAR DRY FOR NORTHERN NV AND CA... ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED OF LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS NEAR THE OR BORDER.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. KTRK HAS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR FG
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11-15Z THIS MORNING, BETTER CHANCES TOMORROW
MORNING WITH CLEARER SKIES. A 15% OF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
NEAR KSVE AND NORTHWARD.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 12 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VRB.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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