518
FXUS65 KREV 301901
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1201 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE SLICK ROADS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE IN AND AROUND TRUCKEE AGAIN TOMORROW.
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT
(20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.
* PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA AND
SIERRA FRONT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE
EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY HINDER
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE TRUCKEE/MARTIS VALLEY AREA TONIGHT, THOUGH
A 30% CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IS STILL QUEUED UP FOR TOMORROW
MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEYS AND MID 60S
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. A CLOSED LOW WILL MATERIALIZE ALONG THE CA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
MOST NOTABLY IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT.
HOWEVER, 10-20% CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NE CA AS WELL AS N
WASHOE, S LYON, AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FRIENDS IN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES LUCK OUT AT LEAST SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 10-15% SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY, FORECAST-WISE, WITH
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (15-40%). THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW HAS A NEGATIVE TILT TO IT SUNDAY, WHICH HELPS PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING. MODEL MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-800 J/KG
SUNDAY WITH 500-600 J/KG ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND UP TO 800 J/KG
IN THE TAHOE BASIN. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 8500' SUNDAY; THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL OR PELLET
SHOWERS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND ERRATIC OUTFLOWS.
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY,
WITH SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISHING EACH DAY. A WARMING TREND
REIGNITES BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S FOR VALLEYS BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK OVER THE AREA.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KTRK FROM 9-16Z
WHERE THERE'S A 30% CHANCE OF PATCHY FZFG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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