232  
FXUS65 KREV 040820  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
120 AM PDT WED JUN 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE  
SIERRA FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN MINERAL  
COUNTY.  
 
* SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK PRECEDES A  
RETURN OF JULY-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HEATRISK FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WE'LL  
GRADUALLY WARM UP EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL CONTINUE TO  
HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN  
SIERRA DOWN IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT  
LEAST FRIDAY. THE SPC HAS THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY UNDER  
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, OUR  
ZEPHYR BREEZES WILL BE BACK EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK.  
 
OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONSISTS OF A SERIES  
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE  
CONVECTION IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. GENERALLY, SBCAPE VALUES  
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 400-600 J/KG, RIGHT AROUND  
THE LOWER END OF WHAT'S TYPICAL AROUND HERE IN THE SUMMERTIME. IN  
TERMS OF PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE, MONO COUNTY HAS AROUND A 30%  
CHANCE WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY THERE'S A 10-15% CHANCE FOR  
A STRAY SHOWER WITH SIMILAR CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING THROUGH FRIDAY.  
THURSDAY ONLY, THE SHOWERS LOOK TO CREEP FURTHER NORTH INTO  
DOUGLAS/SOUTHERN LYON/ALPINE COUNTIES, ADDING A 20-30% CHANCE OF  
STORMS AND LIGHTNING IN THOSE AREAS. DCAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 600-  
900 J/KG, SO EXPECT OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND THESE STORMS TO BE UP TO  
40 MPH. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL LESS THAN 0.25" IN  
DIAMETER, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
 
STARTING SATURDAY, A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES ONSHORE,  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM  
NORTHEAST CA DOWN TO MONO COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF  
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS FOR STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO  
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF WHERE THAT LOW IS GOING TO TRACK. BUT WHAT  
IS CERTAIN THIS WEEKEND ARE THE TEMPERATURES. KEEP YOUR  
SUNGLASSES, WATER BOTTLES, AND HATS HANDY BECAUSE WESTERN NV IS  
LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID-90'S AND IN THE SIERRA THE LOW 80'S  
SATURDAY-TUESDAY.  
 
-JUSTIN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
THERE'S A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMMH THIS  
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z-04Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS AT ALL AREA  
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. KMMH MAY SEE ERRATIC GUSTS AROUND THE  
THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 35 MPH. PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
INCLUDE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL <0.25", AND OCCASIONAL  
LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL  
PREVAIL TODAY.  
 
-JUSTIN  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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