588
FXUS65 KREV 062015
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
115 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE PROMPTED
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
* TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE
SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
* GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN A
RETURN TO DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP FOR LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY HAS BEEN KICKING WINDS UP
ALREADY, STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED 35-40+ MPH, WITH RIDGE GUSTS
CREEPING UP TO 55-60 MPH TERRITORY. THIS TIMING WILL COINCIDE WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE OF WESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS COMBINATION, ALONG WITH FUELS THAT HAVE BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE
TO SPARK, HAVE PROMPTED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY THROUGH 11
PM TONIGHT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY, INCLUDING AVOIDING CREATING SPARKS WITH
DRAGGING TRAILER CHAINS, TARGET SHOOTING OR DRIVING OVER DRY
VEGETATION.
ONCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, SUNDAY WILL BE
MARKED BY COOL NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, TAKING
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JUNE. THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A SOURCE REGION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS SUGGESTS A MORE MOIST AND COOL AIRMASS, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY TAKING AIM AT THE LATE MONDAY TIME FRAME FOR OUR AREA.
IN FACT, RECENT MODELING SUGGESTS THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME CAMS HINT
AT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, BUT LARGELY ARE OUT
OF THE AREA BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
EXIST ALONG THE OREGON BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, WHERE
CHANCES RANGE 40-80%, BUT ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS MENTIONED. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED OTHER DURATIONS,
BUT THIS TREND HAS BEEN DEPICTED IN THE MAJORITY OF 12Z RUNS OF
BOTH MID-RANGE AND CAM GUIDANCE. AS FOR THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK FROPA, SEVERAL CONTEXT CLUES LEAN TOWARD WIND
SPEEDS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES, WITH SIMILAR
TO LEANING SLIGHTLY LIGHTER FOR VALLEYS. THE EVIDENCE TO THIS
INCLUDES A ROBUST JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT,
HOWEVER THE ANGLE AT WHICH IT APPROACHES IS LESS FAVORABLE,
DESPITE WIND SPEEDS CONTAINED WITHIN. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE
LACK OF THERMAL GRADIENT DUE TO OVERALL COOLING FROM TODAY'S
FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO, WHILE 700 MB WINDS ARE ON PAR FOR
MONDAY TO REFLECT TODAY'S RIDGE WINDS, THE MIXING OF THE WINDS TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS LIMITED. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY EVOLVE IN
FUTURE ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST CYCLE, SO STAY TUNED AS WE WORK
OUT THE DETAILS.
ALRIGHTY THEN, WE WILL WISH A FOND FAREWELL TO SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS BY WEDNESDAY, BUT WE WILL NOTICE LIGHT EAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMER BREEZES RETURN, ALONG WITH A RIDGE
THAT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL BRING BACK A HEATING
AND DRYING TREND TO OUR FORECAST. HRICH
AVIATION
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BE 35-40 KTS TO AREA TERMINALS TODAY, WITH
FL100 WESTERLY WINDS AT 30-35 KTS. THIS MAY INDUCE POCKETS OF
LLWS AND TURBULENCE WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE BEHAVIOR. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
* SHOWERS ARE AIMING TO ARRIVE AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO KSVE, KLOL,
KTRK AND EVEN KTVL. CHANCES RANGE 15-20% FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY, THEN DECREASE TO 5-10% AS DAY
BREAKS. JUSTIN/HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CA. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST
OVER WESTERN NEVADA WITH A 75-95% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, THERE'S A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
TO 40 MPH IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER WINDS FOR MIDSLOPES
AND RIDGES. MINIMUM RH RANGES 9-13% IN NV VALLEYS AND 10-18% IN
NORTHEAST CA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
LONGER CRITICAL WIND/RH OVERLAP SUPPORTS 8-10 HOURS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND INTO EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. OTHER
AREAS SUCH AS LOWER MONO COUNTY VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE CHALFANT
VALLEY, WILL ALSO SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
-JUSTIN/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ420-423-429-458.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001-003-004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ278.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
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