838
FXUS65 KREV 141032
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD AND AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING IN SIERRA VALLEYS. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE
UPCOMING WINTER STORM.
* WINDS INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES TONIGHT, WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* SNOW REACHES THE SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER ELEVATION SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER AND
LINGERING SNOW IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WE'LL SQUEEZE OUT A COUPLE MORE DRY AND MILD DAYS BEFORE A WINTER
BLAST COMES NOT ONLY FOR THE SIERRA, BUT ALSO SPREADING INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA, AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WHILE WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH TIMING CHALLENGES FOR THIS CHANGE
TO THE STORMY PATTERN, THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVING.
* SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AFTERNOON:
THE FIRST PUSH OF SNOW IS ON TRACK TO REACH NORTHEAST CA AND THE
TAHOE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN EXTEND
INTO MONO COUNTY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS,
RAIN AND SNOW IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN NV WHERE THE SETUP IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR MOISTURE SPILLING OVER FROM THE SIERRA. WHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY SETTING UP IN THE 5000-5500 FT RANGE, THEY MAY DROP
BELOW 5000 FEET AT TIMES DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP RATES.
THIS IS AN ADDITIONAL WILD CARD WHERE IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN
FILTER INTO THE VALLEYS WHEN THE PRECIP BEGINS AND INTENSIFIES,
MORE VALLEYS AREAS COULD END UP WITH SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40 MPH FOR VALLEYS AND 60-80 MPH FOR SIERRA
RIDGES) WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORM ACTIVITY,
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK SPEEDS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF THE
STORM.
* MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE TRAVEL ACROSS THE SIERRA WILL BE
MOST DANGEROUS, WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 3"/HOUR AT
TIMES), PEAK WINDS PRODUCING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. SEE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CURRENT STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AND WIND GUST PROJECTIONS.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE LARGELY SNOW-FREE WINTER SO FAR WILL
CHANGE AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (IF NOT ALREADY THERE PRIOR TO
THIS TIME FRAME). BOTH COMMUTES ON TUESDAY ARE ON TRACK TO BE
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE MAIN URBAN AREAS OF FAR WESTERN NV,
WHILE FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE A MOVING TARGET
WITH THE STORM STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
2+" OF SNOW FOR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AND AROUND VIRGINIA CITY IS
80+ PERCENT, WITH 30-70% CHANCE FOR THE GREATER RENO/CARSON METRO
AREAS. HIGHER END SNOW SCENARIOS (90TH PERCENTILES) COULD BRING
4-8" TOTALS FOR THE RENO/CARSON VICINITY AND 8" OR MORE FOR
FOOTHILLS/VIRGINIA CITY.
ALSO COMPLICATING THE TRAVEL HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS
PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS.
* WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SIERRA, AND SPOTTY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH THE INTENSITY COMPARED TO MONDAY-TUESDAY, ANY NEW SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL READILY STICK TO MOST SURFACES AND PRODUCE SLICK AND
ICY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WE MAY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME SCENARIOS INDICATE ADDITIONAL
WEAKER STORMS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, KEEPING THE THREAT
OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. MJD
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
THICKER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BEFORE A SHORT CLEARING PERIOD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. PATCHY FREEZING FOG STILL HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR AT KTRK THIS MORNING BETWEEN 10-14Z, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE AND DURATION MAY BE LIMITED BY THE INCOMING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
* S-SW WINDS INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FL100 WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN STORM
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
* A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS FOR ALL
MAIN TERMINALS, WITH THE GREATEST OVERALL IMPACTS FOR SIERRA
SITES. SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MJD
AVALANCHE
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST SNOW
PROJECTED FROM MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING/SNOWFALL RATES: SNOW LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SACS TERRAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN REACHING BAC/ESAC AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW THEN BECOMES MAINLY CONTINUOUS FOR ALL AREAS, WITH
RATES OF 1-2"/HOUR AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING
TO POTENTIALLY 2-3"/HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
* SWE/SNOWFALL TOTALS: SWE OF 2-4", LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 5"
CURRENTLY FAVORING SAC TERRAIN. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET,
WITH POCKETS OF 5 OR MORE FEET FOR HIGHER PEAKS.
* SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR): SLRS AT THE STORM'S ONSET A HIGHER
DENSITY 8-11:1 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN TO A MORE POWDERY
12-16:1 AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD.
* RIDGE TOP WINDS: BEFORE THE STORM, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 50-65 MPH. THE MAIN PUSH OF WINDS ARRIVES
MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF PEAK
GUSTS 100+ MPH MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
NVZ002.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
CAZ071>073.
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