216
FXUS65 KREV 261013
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
313 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, MAINLY IN
CHURCHILL, LYON, MINERAL, MONO, AND PERSHING COUNTIES.
* BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AND THURSDAY, LEADING TO
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CWA WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SW
CONUS. IT ALSO SHOWS A PACNW LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR
THE CANADA-U.S. BORDER TODAY AND THEN MAKING LANDFALL ON
THURSDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN ALOFT, THE LATEST HREF RUN IS SHOWING
AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS IN THE NV BASIN AND
RANGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL AS S. MONO COUNTY BETWEEN 1-8 PM
TODAY. THE 06Z HRRR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE (CAPE VALUES <100 J/KG IN THESE AREAS), SO THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOWER TODAY, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY. FORECAST PW VALUES ARE
0.5-0.8 INCHES, SO A BRIEF BOUT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AND SHORT-LASTING. SIMILAR
SHOWER CHANCES ARE SEEN ON THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS,
THOUGH THE FORECAST CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY ON THESE SHOWER CHANCES AS SOME
OTHER MODELS KEEP THESE AREAS DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THOUGH
LOOKS TO STAY ON THE DRY SIDE.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL COME FROM BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS IN THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
ENHANCE THE UPPER JET OVER THE REGION A BIT, WHICH IN TURN WILL
CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO SPEED UP SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WHEN
MIXING OCCURS. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH HIGHER END WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED IN NE CA AND NW NV, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED TO
ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS ON BOTH
DAYS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEY AREAS WILL BE IN THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS
WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
RANGE.
ON FRIDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER, WHICH
WILL ALLOW A POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY WITH THE VALLEYS IN THE 80S AND SIERRA
COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S RANGE. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE LATEST NBM SHOWS AROUND A 40-80% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH A 5-15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
THIS PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY DECREASED WINDS WILL LOWER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY. WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM
GOING FORWARD, BUT CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF THIS BASED ON THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES. AREA WINDS BETWEEN 26/20Z-27/03Z GENERALLY WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS WITH PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER SEEING GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NV BASIN AND RANGE AREA AS WELL AS S. MONO
COUNTY BETWEEN 26/20Z-27/04Z. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
SEEN ON THURSDAY WITH FORECAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. -078
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW IN NE CA AND NW NV. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35
MPH (UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE AREAS) AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES BETWEEN 10-20% ARE IN THE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE
AREAS. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-40% WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER RECOVERIES OF 30-50% ON THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (~40-80%) ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON
FRIDAY REDUCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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