252
FXUS65 KREV 281902
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1202 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SIERRA.
* DRIER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
* SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUBBLING UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALREADY
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE (45-65%) ALONG THE SIERRA TODAY WITH A 15-25% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 12 PM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES
OF 100-300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING, WILL PROMOTE DEEPER STORM PROFILES WITH HIGHER
STORM TOPS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL OR PELLETS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
TEMPERATURE DROPS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES (<15%) TO THE SIERRA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST BY SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S FOR VALLEYS AND MID 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR KTRK/KTVL THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND LOWER VIS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY
OUTFLOWS MAY BRING BRIEF WIND DIRECTION CHANGES FOR SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS. KTRK CAN ALSO EXPECT FZFG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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