494
FXUS65 KREV 130840
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY, BRINGING WETTER STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.
* A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH STORM
CHANCES PERSISTING FOR MONO AND MINERAL. WINDS INCREASE FOR
AREAS NEAR THE OR BORDER.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NE CA CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN
A TRACE TO 0.01 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT PER CAMS. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ITS
WAY UP AS THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A TROUGH
IN THE EAST PACIFIC MAKE A MOISTURE HIGHWAY FROM SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TOWARDS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA, AND INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. PWS IN THE LATEST SOUNDING WERE AROUND 0.82" AND
WE ARE EXPECTING THOSE VALUES TO INCREASE TODAY TO AROUND 1-1.25
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. SO, YES WE HAVE THE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WE NEED INSTABILITY AND A LIFTING MECHANISM
TO GET WHAT'S IN THE AIR ON THE GROUND. SMOKE APPEARS TO CONTINUE
AROUND RENO AND VICINITY TODAY. THE HRRR SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS MORE
SMOKE PUSHED EAST TOWARDS RENO AND THE NORTH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDED ACTIVITY TONIGHT, BUT THE INVERSION MAY
LOCK THE SMOKE INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT REDUCING AIR
QUALITY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VALUES ARE KIND OF LOW MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG, BUT
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG BY TUESDAY. SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30 KTS
BOTH DAYS. BASED ON THE ABOVE WE ARE EXPECTING STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW DUE TO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING STORMS LIFTING OFF FROM
MONO AND MINERAL, AND THEN MOVING NORTH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM, AND IF
ANY OF THEM START TO TRAIN OR GET ANCHORED TO A MOUNTAIN COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 BETWEEN
WESTERN MINERAL CO AND THE SIERRA CREST. THE QUICK MOTION OF THESE
STORM MAY ALSO RESULT IN DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IGNITE NEW
FIRES OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES OR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THE STORMS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND HAVE GREATER COVERAGE. SO, THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ALSO EXPANDS TO ALL AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80.
AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST FROM THE PACNW ALSO STARTS TO
MOVE INLAND AND THIS MAY START TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT TBD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE STARTING TO
DIVERGE WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MODEL
DIVERGENCE FURTHER INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER, THE
TREND WE ARE SEEING IS FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHICH KEEP LOW POPS
GENERALLY BELOW 15% THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS DRY WITH POPS BELOW 5%. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER AND WINDS INCREASE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL APPROACH
OF THAT UPPER TROUGH. SO, EXPECT TYPICAL WEST BREEZES RETURNING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AND SOME A BIT MORE ENHANCED FOR
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND OVER NE CA WITH GUSTS HAVING A 20-50% OF
EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WHICH BRINGS US TO HAVE VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE OUT COME FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, WE
MAY HAVE ANOTHER PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS BACK, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS TREND OVER THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK.
-HC
AVIATION
LIGHT SHRA TODAY WITH A 15-40% CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES SOUTH OF US-50 INCLUDING KMEV, KHTH, KBAN
AND KMMH. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS.
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR TSRA
POTENTIAL TO MONDAY ON MOST SITES AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS, SMALL HAIL AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
-HRICH/HC
FIRE WEATHER
A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY USHERING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. STORMS TREND WETTER TODAY AND TUESDAY, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE FASTER SIDE TODAY, SO NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM MAIN RAIN CORES. STORMS WILL BE SLOWER ON
TUESDAY LIMITING THE FIRE RISK.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MOREOVER, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER VERTICAL
PLUME GROWTH/MORE ACTIVE PLUME BEHAVIOR ON ANY NEW/EXISTING FIRES
THAT BECOME INTENSE.
WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NE CA, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES
DUE TO GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH, AND A 20-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
HRICH/SALAS/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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