225
FXUS65 KREV 242204
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH
AREA WATERWAYS CONTINUING TO RUN DANGEROUSLY COLD AND SWIFT DUE TO
CONTINUED SNOWMELT.
* AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW, POSING IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING AVIATION, RECREATION, AND FIRE IMPACTS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CA TODAY. WITH THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN, SHOWER CHANCES (AT
LEAST 15%) FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT TO BE CONFINED
GENERALLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-50. THE BEST CHANCES (25-45%) WILL
BE IN MONO COUNTY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS/LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS ALSO A 15-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TO BE SUB-
SEVERE TODAY, POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS INCLUDE LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (WHICH COULD BLOW DUST OR CAUSE
CHOPPY LAKE WATERS), BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL/ICE
PELLETS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SHOULD HAVE A WAY
TO RECEIVE THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES TODAY AS THEY COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM
ENTERING AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND CREEKS TO COOL OFF AS THEY
CONTINUE TO RUN COLD AND SWIFT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO
AROUND 15-25 MPH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.
ON MEMORIAL DAY, MODELS DEPICT A PACNW UPPER LOW MOVING DOWN INTO
THE NW CONUS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONE LAST
DAY OF W NV AND NE CA VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND SIERRA
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S RANGE. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITHIN THE REGION WILL BE INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECT
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND GUST UP TO AROUND 35-40
MPH. AS SUCH, LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREA
LAKES (INCLUDING LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE) BEGINNING IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY. PLEASE REFER THE ADVISORY PRODUCT
FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO, THE FORECAST SHOWS QUICKER WINDS CLOSER
TO THE OR BORDER (GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE), WHICH HAS
MERITED A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE FOR PERSHING, EASTERN LASSEN,
AND NORTH WASHOE COUNTIES AS WELL AS SURPRISE VALLEY IN MODOC
COUNTY (SEE THE PRODUCT AND THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION). BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DESERT
SINKS AND PLAYAS IN W NV WITH THESE WINDS, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THESE WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING WHILE SIERRA RIDGE
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 60-70 MPH OVERNIGHT. PLEASE KEEP
THESE INCREASED WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN MIND
FOR THE HOLIDAY ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR PLANS.
WHILE THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY, THERE
IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MONO, WESTERN MINERAL, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES.
FOR TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS OR AND OVER THE CWA BY TUESDAY
EVENING. COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AS THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY NORMALS.
INCREASED WINDS (GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH) WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY THOUGH DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE ANOTHER DAY OF HAZARDOUS LAKE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITHIN
THE REGION, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
WINDS AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECT TO BE AROUND 30%
OR MORE. CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-70%) ARE SEEN FOR
NE CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA ALSO HAS AROUND A 15-25%
CHANCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS IN THESE AREAS LOOK TO
BE AROUND 6.5-7.5 KFT SO SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLY MIXED IN WITH RAIN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT SEE SHOWERS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER
THE CWA. THIS WILL PUSH IN MORE COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH,
DROPPING AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. WHILE THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY, W NV AND NE CA VALLEY WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S ON BOTH DAYS WITH SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING
BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S AND MIDDLE 50S RANGE. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TO BE EXPECTED ON THESE TWO DAYS AS
WELL. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 6-6.5 KFT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 7-7.5 KFT DURING
THE DAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
LATEST NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES, THE HIGHEST SIERRA PEAKS
AROUND THE TAHOE REGION SEE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN SIERRA PEAKS IN MONO COUNTY
SEEING AROUND A 80-90% CHANCE OF THE SAME. VIRGINIA CITY EVEN
SEES AROUND A 10-40% CHANCE FOR 0.1+ INCHES OF SNOW. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS MIDWEEK SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, BUT PLEASE
PREPARE NOW IF YOU CAN FOR THE UPCOMING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ALREADY STARTED YOUR GARDENING OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO WARM TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES (THE EXCEPTION BEING KTRK) THROUGH
AROUND 25/03-05Z. WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF US-50 SEE AT LEAST A 15%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCES (25-45%) ARE
SEEN IN MONO COUNTY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS, LYON, AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. KMMH ALSO SEES UP TO AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 25/03Z, WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIGHTNING, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
INCREASED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ON THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
A SECOND DAY OF GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS. THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE
TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE REGION ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING DUST PARTICULARLY AT TERMINALS NEAR DESERT SINKS
(KHTH/KLOL/KNFL). -078
FIRE WEATHER
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA.
* A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THE
SURPRISE VALLEY, NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, AND THE WESTERN HUMBOLDT
BASIN, INCLUDING THE QUARTZ FIRE (NE PERSHING COUNTY) IN
ANTICIPATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS NE
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. AREAS ACROSS PERSHING
COUNTY (WESTERN HUMBOLDT BASIN) MAY SEE GUSTS SLIGHTLY LOWER UP TO
AROUND 30-40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10-20%.
* THE DURATION OF CRITICAL WIND/RH IS TRENDING TOWARDS 3-7 HOURS IN
LASSEN AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WITH 2-6 HOURS IN PERSHING
COUNTY.
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE CONTINUITY OF RECEPTIVE FUEL BEDS, BUT
LOCAL INTEL FROM LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS AND THE RECENT QUARTZ FIRE
IGNITION SUGGESTS THE CURED GRASSES AND SAGEBRUSH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF CARRYING FIRE IN VALLEYS/MIDSLOPES OF FAR NW NEVADA. FARTHER
SOUTH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT FUEL
CONDITIONS AREN'T AS DRY PER LOCAL UNITS.
* WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES COOL AND HUMIDITY RISES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FUENTES/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ458.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ004.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ423.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ270-278.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.
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