140
FXUS65 KREV 030951
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
251 AM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY.
* A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UP TO A 5% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH COOLDOWN POSSIBLE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THIS PATTERN ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS BEING BETWEEN THE MID-80S
TO AROUND THE 90F MARK AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING IN THE MID-70S
TO MID-80S RANGE. THE LATEST NBM RUN EVEN SHOWS A ~33% CHANCE
TODAY AND A ~67% CHANCE TOMORROW FOR THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT TO TIE RECORD VALUES FOR THE OCT. 3RD AND OCT. 4TH DATES
(PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD TEMPERATURE DATA). THE
NBM ALSO SHOWS GOOD PROBABILITY (80-90%) OF TYING RECORD WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AT RNO. THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL HAS AREA LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE W
NV VALLEYS AND BETWEEN 40F AND 50F IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE PRODUCT HAS MORE SMOKE FILTERING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE DOME FIRE IN CENTRAL CA TODAY ALONG WITH SMOKE
BEING PRODUCED FROM THE RECENT BULL FIRE NEAR VERDI. WHILE NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREAS OF THE WILDFIRES, THERE MAY BE SOME HAZY SKIES
AGAIN TODAY DUE TO SMOKE IN THE SIERRA AND THE SIERRA FRONT.
THOSE SENSITIVE TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON AIRNOW.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE THEN PROJECTS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS N CA ON LATE SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA GOING THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW UP TO AROUND A 5% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER OR VIRGA FOR THE SIERRA AND NE CA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. WHILE THESE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES, IT'S WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE 06Z RUN OF THE RRFS MODEL APPEARS BE AN
OUTLIER AS IT EXTENDS THESE CHANCES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
EXPANDING COVERAGE INTO WASHOE COUNTY. THE TROUGH FEATURE WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT GOING INTO
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES HAVING A 50-70% NBM
PROBABILITY OF 25+ MPH WIND GUSTS AND NE CA SEEING A 10-30% NBM
PROBABILITY OF THE SAME. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN PROJECTS THE RIDGE REBUILDING IN THE W CONUS
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE. BY FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NW
CONUS WHICH SIGNALS A COOLING TREND. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST SHOWS
NEXT SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH THE W NV
VALLEYS BEING IN THE 70S AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES BEING IN THE 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END NEXT WEEK ARE STILL LESS THAN 10% AT
THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH. -MRC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER DECREASING ACROSS
THE REGION. TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
15 KTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 03/20Z-04/03Z. SMOKE FROM THE BULL AND
DOME FIRES MAY LEAD TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TODAY. -MRC
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH AREA CLIMATE SITES (RENO AT KRNO
AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AT KTVL) THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/3 91F (2024) 80F (2024)
10/4 89F (1987) 82F (1988)
10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1991)
10/6 88F (1980,1991,1996,2004) 78F (2014)
10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)
-------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE:
DATE RENO NV SOUTH LAKE TAHOE CA
---- ------------ -------------------
10/3 56F (2010) 49F (2007)
10/4 54F (2024) 45F (2015)
10/5 52F (1947,1999,2024) 39F (2024)
10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021)
10/7 52F (2021,2024) 43F (2021)
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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