184
FXUS65 KREV 160905
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
205 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY,
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION AND RECREATION.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK,
RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
US, WITH OUR REGION UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN,
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN CONVECTION, PRIMARILY OVER MONO/MINERAL COUNTY AND THE NV
BASIN & RANGE. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS LOW AROUND 10-15%. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST
VALLEYS, AND 70S TO LOW 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH) ACROSS FAR NE CA AND NW NV.
THESE WINDS, COUPLED WITH LOW RH (10-15%), WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NE CA.
BY SATURDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
EXPANSION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH STILL LOW AT 10%. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR VALLEYS, AND 70S TO LOW
80S FOR THE SIERRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA TOWARDS THE NV BASIN AND RANGE WITH A
20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN PER NBM GUIDANCE. STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT
10-20%. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND OTHER
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. ANYWAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF
TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOONAL WEATHER. EVEN THOUGH, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR THE PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A 5-15%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR KMMH/KHTH. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY,
EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER ANYWHERE ELSE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, THEN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
5-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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