883
FXUS65 KREV 271901
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1201 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS, AND
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
* A SHIFT TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF APRIL.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR W NV VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND OUR TYPICALY
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND TO GET
OUTSIDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY AND FAR BASIN AND RANGE WHERE
THERE IS ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING. SAID FORCING IS INTRODUCING
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND IS 15% OR LESS. WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR, VIRGA IS
THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF "PRECIPITATION" WE WILL BE SEEING.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND TIMING FOR STORMS NEXT WEEK KEEPS CHANGING!
WHAT WOULD'VE BEEN THE FIRST ROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY HAS PUSHED
TO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER.
WHILE THE RAIN/SNOW TOTALS ARE HARD TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW, WE CAN
DETERMINE THAT IT'S GOING TO BE MUCH COLDER (DROPPING INTO THE
60S BY LATE WEEK) AND VERY WINDY. THAT SECOND WAVE ORIGINALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO TARGET OUR AREA THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TO THE NORTH, AND IS
GIVING MUCH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAN BEFORE. THIS SECOND
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ABOVE 7000' BUT DUE
TO THE INCONSISTENCIES ACROSS MODEL RUNS, THIS METEOROLOGIST
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF FURTHER DEVIATIONS FROM THIS CURRENT
FORECAST HAPPEN.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH SCT-BKN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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