864
FXUS65 KREV 140905
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
205 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ISOLATED AND SHIFTS SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
* HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE-WEEK, WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE LATEST SOUNDING 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWS OF 1.04 INCHES, MUCAPE
OF 851 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR OF 39 KTS, WHICH WAS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
FOR TODAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
PWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 1.00 INCH. DIURNAL
HEATING, COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY,
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PER THE HREF,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR LYON, STOREY, DOUGLAS, MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES. DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 700-1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40-45 MPH, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S.
BY WEDNESDAY, A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST AND A
TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, WITH
ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED OVER MONO, MINERAL, AND FAR EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S FOR LOWER VALLEYS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY OVER NE CA, WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
FOR THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, KEEPING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, REACHING THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
WINDS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
NE CA AND MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A 20-50% CHANCE
OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPCOMING WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV WITH A
10-25% CHANCE. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN
DUE TO MODEL DIVERGENCE, THE OVERALL TREND SUPPORTS A CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER VALLEYS, AND WARM FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES IN THE 80S.
-HC
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA CONTINUES WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR TSRA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
7-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET WITH CLOUD OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER AND WETTER TODAY LIMITING THE FIRE RISK ONLY
TO AREAS NEAR THE OR BORDER. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP
TO 45 MPH COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. MOREOVER, AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH/MORE ACTIVE PLUME
BEHAVIOR ON ANY FIRES THAT BECOME INTENSE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR NORTHWEST LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NE CA, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES
DUE TO GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, AND A 20-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
-HRICH/SALAS/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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