564
FXUS65 KREV 120758
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1258 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
* VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RESUMES STARTING TUESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SHOWERS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN. COLD AIR
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN OR SNOW WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000-7500 FEET TODAY FALL SHARPLY TONIGHT, DROPPING
BELOW 6000 FEET AROUND 8-11 PM IN THE TAHOE AREA AND 11 PM-2 AM IN
MONO COUNTY. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, LEVELS REACH ROUGHLY 4000 FEET
NEAR TRUCKEE AND 5500 FEET NEAR MAMMOTH. MOST SHOWERS END BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES; SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WOULD
INCREASE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN MONO COUNTY.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL HAS GENERALLY DECREASED SINCE SUNDAY. OUR
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CALLS FOR A DUSTING TO LESS THAN
AN INCH AT DONNER, ECHO, AND SPOONER SUMMITS, AROUND AN INCH AT
CARSON PASS, THE MOUNT ROSE HIGHWAY SUMMIT, AND TIOGA PASS, AND
AROUND 2 INCHES AT SONORA PASS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST IN TRUCKEE AND AROUND TAHOE AT LAKE LEVEL. ALONG US-395
IN MONO COUNTY, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
NEAR JUNE LAKE JUNCTION, DEADMAN SUMMIT, AND CRESTVIEW.
FOR THE 24 HOURS FROM 5 AM TODAY THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY:
* NEAR JUNE LAKE JUNCTION, DEADMAN SUMMIT, AND CRESTVIEW ALONG US-
395, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1 INCH, 15-25% FOR MORE
THAN 2 INCHES, BELOW 25% FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES, AND 5-15% FOR
MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
* AT CARSON PASS, THE MOUNT ROSE HIGHWAY SUMMIT, AND SONORA PASS,
PROBABILITIES ARE APPROXIMATELY 25-30% FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH, 10-
20% FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES, BELOW 20% FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES, AND
BELOW 10% FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
* AT DONNER, ECHO, AND TIOGA PASSES, THERE IS A 5-15% CHANCE OF MORE
THAN 1 INCH; PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 2, 3, OR 4 INCHES ARE EACH
BELOW 10%.
* AT TAHOE LAKE LEVEL AND IN TRUCKEE, PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW 10%
FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH AND BELOW 5% EACH FOR MORE THAN 2, 3, OR 4
INCHES.
HEAVIER SHOWERS CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE PASSES SLICK
DESPITE MODEST TOTALS. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ALSO BRING
A RISK OF REFREEZING WHERE ROADS REMAIN WET.
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER AND WARMER AFTERNOONS BEYOND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE-WEEK PACIFIC SYSTEMS REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
THE REGION, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THEIR SOUTHWARD EXTENT
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR CONTINUES, WITH A LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AS SIERRA SHOWERS INCREASE AROUND 20-21Z MONDAY. THERE
IS A 15% CHANCE OF SIERRA CREST THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z MONDAY-00Z
TUESDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH NEAR KTRK/KTVL AROUND 03Z TUESDAY BUT
LINGER LATER NEAR KMMH, MIXING WITH SNOW. AT KMMH, THERE IS
APPROXIMATELY A 15% CHANCE OF CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FEET AGL
AROUND 03-04Z TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KRNO/KCXP AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT KMEV
INCREASE AROUND 21Z MONDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT. NORTHWEST
GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT AT KTRK BEFORE WINDS EASE THIS EVENING. LLWS IS
NOT EXPECTED; AREAS OF TURBULENCE REMAIN A CONCERN ALOFT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.
AT KTRK, THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. RAIN WETTING THE AIRPORT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD FAVOR FOG TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR 15Z TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 3 SM AND A 5-10% CHANCE
BELOW 1 SM, WITH GREATER FOG POTENTIAL IF APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS AT
THE AIRPORT TODAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SHOWERS END AND ANY MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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