248
FXUS65 KREV 160741
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1241 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR W.NEVADA VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK CONCERNS.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST OF
MONO COUNTY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CHANCES LESS THAN 15%.
* A PATTERN CHANGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY INCREASES FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DUE TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. COOLING EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE
INCREASED CUMULUS BUILDUPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING.
SPEAKING OF HEATING, AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH NEAR 90S FOR LOWER SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE HEAT RELIEF AS
LOWS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THESE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED. LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND REMEMBER TO
DRINK WATER THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN IN EARNEST THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST, PER LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS MONO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY (15-30% CHANCE), THOUGH HI-RES
MODELS HINT AT SHOWERS CREEPING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND EVEN
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THURSDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY, WITH A 15-25% CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
MONO COUNTY UP THROUGH THE OR BORDER, AND EAST TO THE
CHURCHILL/PERSHING AND LANDER COUNTY BORDERS. MODEL SOUNDING DCAPE
VALUES RANGE UP TO 1400 J/KG, COINCIDING WITH OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH. PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS FRIDAY? KEEP AN EYE AND EAR TO THE
SKIES; WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
KMMH TODAY WHERE THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONALLY, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SIERRA.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS. NEVADA TERMINALS WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THESE CONCERNS AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
-GIRALTE/FUENTES
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING
TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH THE HEAT, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND CAUSE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20%
VICINITY ACROSS THE W.NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES RETURN ON THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. THESE HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE BRIEF, LOCALIZED AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WHERE VEGETATION IS ALREADY DRY, PRIMARILY
IN WASHOE COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
A PATTERN CHANCE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
FAST-MOVING, HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH
INTO THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE GREATEST THREAT, WITH WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.
DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS (<10%) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FAST-MOVING STORMS, NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
FAVOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.
THESE STRONG OUTFLOWS COULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ANY NEW IGNITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS, VEGETATION WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING,
INCREASING THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
-GIRALTE/FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
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