702
FXUS65 KREV 130739
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1239 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONO COUNTY INTO MINERAL COUNTY.
* A HEATWAVE WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS, AND INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM, BUT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE AND THE SIERRA WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY PAIR WITH THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY DUE TO SOLAR HEATING TO PROMOTE MORE STORMS
FORMING OR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S A BIT OF A MESSY
PATTERN WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE
CAN PLAN ON SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (15%
CHANCES) FOR MONO, MINERAL, AND LYON COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE SIERRA CREST TOWARDS THE TAHOE BASIN, THE CHANCES ARE
BELOW 15% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT NOT ZERO. BE AWARE IF YOU'RE
ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, AND WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS!
OTHER THAN THE STORM/SHOWER CHANCES, THE HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BECOME HOT BY MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES WELL ABOVE 90F AND NEARING 100F. PLAN ON
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME AREAS
INTO THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS. KEEP AN
EYE ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IF
THEY DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING MEASURES. TRY TO AVOID
THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY BY GETTING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY OR
LATER IN THE EVENING TO PREVENT HEAT ILLNESS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST TO BREAK DOWN AND DISPLACE EASTWARD MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT WE TYPICALLY MONITOR FOR
BREEZY WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, ALONG WITH BETTER
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL, BUT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE TOO EARLY TO
FLESH OUT. FOR NOW, WE CAN PLAN ON IT COOLING DOWN TO MORE
TYPICAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AFTER PRETTY HOT START.
-EDAN
AVIATION
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMMH EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES ARE LOW (15% OR LESS), BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY IMPACT KMMH SHOULD
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD HOT
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
-SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES (10-20F ABOVE NORMAL) WITH RH REDUCTIONS TO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. PLAN ON TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BREEZES
EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL TUESDAY, WHERE SIMULATIONS ARE SIGNALING FOR
INCREASED BREEZES AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS IN WESTERN
NEVADA. FURTHERMORE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK, RAISING LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
BREAKDOWN OF A WESTERN RIDGE IS SLATED TO OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY,
WHICH MAY INTRODUCE INCREASED BREEZES AND GREATER FIRE CONCERNS, AS
WELL AS BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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