147
FXUS65 KREV 302017
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
117 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST CA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NV
TUESDAY.
* COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CA
AND NORTHWEST NV THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AUGUST
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
NEAR 80 FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH ON MONDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (GUSTS 20 MPH OR LESS),
THEN TYPICAL ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH RETURN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL CA
COAST MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS (10% CHANCE) NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN AS THIS
LOW MOVES INLAND, A SIMILAR LOW-END 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
SHIFTS TO MINERAL AND FAR EASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES FOR MONDAY.
AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS ON TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE,
BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW, ALONG WITH
AVIATION AND LAKE RECREATION IMPACTS.
THIS TROUGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO EJECT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY, LEAVING COOLER CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BREEZY-GUSTY
WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN REACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST FOR THE LATE PORTION OF
THIS WEEK, CONTINUING BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS, ALONG WITH 15-30%
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FAVORING NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR WESTERN NV
VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S-MID 70S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND FAR
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV.
AN EARLY LOOK AHEAD TO LABOR DAY WEEKEND FAVORS A MAINLY DRY
START WITH DECREASING WINDS, BUT A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DUE TO VARIED LOCATIONS OF WEATHER SYSTEMS NEAR OR OFF THE WEST
COAST, AND POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE PROVIDED BY
AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY FG AT KTRK
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS AT
THE MAIN TERMINALS, THEN TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
RETURN MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY, GUSTS INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS WITH
INCREASED MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS AS A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. MJD
FIRE WEATHER
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY THIS WEEK. ON MONDAY, AFTER A NIGHT OF MORE LIMITED HUMIDITY
RECOVERY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REACHES ITS LOWEST LEVELS THIS WEEK
WITH MINIMUM VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 10% ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CA AND NORTHWEST NV. SW-W WINDS RETURN TO NEAR TYPICAL SPEEDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW SITES COULD SEE
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE GREATEST CONCERNS AS FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES WERE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA, NORTHWEST NV AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRONT (INCLUDING RENO-
CARSON VICINITY). SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH
AROUND THE MIDDAY HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING,
IN ADDITION, MANY OF THESE AREAS NORTH OF RENO HAVE RECEIVED
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL THROUGH MID-LATE AUGUST, RESULTING IN DRY
VEGETATION RECEPTIVE TO CARRYING FIRE IF IGNITIONS OCCUR.
BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY (GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH)
BUT MINIMUM RH CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW SITES NEAR/EAST OF
US-95 COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF OVERLAPPING NEAR-CRITICAL
WIND/RH CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT A COOLER AIR MASS
WITH RISING HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY NORTH
OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH WILL FURTHER DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
NVZ420-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
CAZ270-278.
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