311
FXUS65 KREV 231001
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
301 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
* SMOKE FROM THE RECENT HAWK FIRE MAY BRING POORER VISIBILITY AND
AIR QUALITY TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION NEAR THE RENO METRO-AREA.
* DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CWA GENERALLY WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MODELS DO SHOW A
SLIGHT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL
NV. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION,
THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE ALLOWS FOR MINERAL, LYON, AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES TO SEE A ~10-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A
10-15% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BETWEEN 2-10 PM
TODAY. WHILE FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER, STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FORECAST PWS IN THESE AREAS AROUND 0.7-0.8 INCHES
THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. FOR
TOMORROW, MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER AFTERNOON DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THIS TIME CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER. AS
SUCH, SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SEEN IN LASSEN,
MODOC, AND N. WASHOE COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
FORECAST PW VALUES IN THESE LOCATIONS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
0.5-0.7 INCHES, SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY PARTICULARLY IN WASHOE COUNTY AND ITS
ADJACENT AREAS LOOKS TO BE SMOKE PRODUCED FROM THE RECENT HAWK
FIRE. THE LATEST HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS PATCHY SMOKE CONTINUING
THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. BUT BY THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, THE MODEL SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE CONCENTRATION OF
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PARTICULARLY IN THE RENO-SPARKS AREA WHICH MAY
REDUCE AREA VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY. THOSE SENSITIVE TO POOR AIR
QUALITY MAY WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRNOW.GOV TODAY FOR THE
LATEST AIR QUALITY INFORMATION. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS PATCHY SMOKE
POSSIBLY FILTERING INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE NV BASIN & RANGE GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. WHILE TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. FORECAST
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THOUGH DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE HAWK FIRE LATER TODAY WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TRIPLE DIGIT CAPE VALUES.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE NE CA AND W NV VALLEYS AND IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. WHILE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TO BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY, AN ISOLATED
SHOWER FROM DIURNAL HEATING CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A PACNW UPPER
LOW MOVING TOWARDS BC MIDWEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT PARTICULARLY IN NE CA AND NW NV ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES ON THESE
DAYS SHOWS AROUND A 50-80% CHANCE FOR 30+ MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
ON THESE DAYS. WILL BE MONITORING THIS IN CASE CONDITIONS TREND
TOWARDS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING FORWARD,
BUT CURRENTLY SEEING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS MIDWEEK. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
TODAY. ONE CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR KRNO LOOKS TO COME FROM
POSSIBLE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE RECENT HAWK
FIRE. THE 16/00Z HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY FOR KRNO/KRTS/KTRK WITH KRNO/KTRK SEEING SOME
IMPROVEMENTS BY 23/16Z. HOWEVER, SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES ARE SEEN
BETWEEN 23/20Z-24/04Z BY KRTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF KRNO DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY AND LOCATION OF THE HAWK FIRE. FORECAST CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SUPPORT WILDFIRE CLOUD PLUME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS GOING FORWARD
AND AMEND TAFS IF NEEDED ESPECIALLY AT KRNO. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW PATCHY SMOKE IN W NV GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES. MINERAL, LYON, AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES SEE A ~10-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A
10-15% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 23/21Z-24/06Z.
OUTSIDE ~15-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NE CA AND FAR NW NV ON
MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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