689
FXUS65 KREV 140908
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
* DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.
* MOST DAYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON BREEZES NEAR OR BELOW TYPICAL
LEVELS, WITH LOW RISK FOR A STRONGER WIND EVENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AFTER A COUPLE OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING, HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, WE'LL
BE RETURNING TO A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR TODAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS CA-NV WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN NV. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR
PRODUCING ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT AS EVIDENT, RESULTING
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-95. FOR WEST
CENTRAL NV NEAR AND EAST OF US-95, STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES 400-700 J/KG) AND
UPPER FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING LATER INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS, A DRIER PATTERN THEN SETS UP
OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE A GRADUAL DROP IN DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED, THEY WON'T REACH THE EXCEEDINGLY DRY
LEVELS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE RECENT HEAT EVENT. MOST DAYS WILL
SEE AFTERNOON BREEZES NEAR OR BELOW TYPICAL SPEEDS WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT
UPWARD BUMP IN WINDS FOR A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. A SLIGHT WARMUP THEN OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S-NEAR 80 FOR SIERRA SITES. SOME SCENARIOS
BRING A BIT MORE WARMING BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MID 90S WITHIN
REACH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DATA. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT 15-25% CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR
T-STORM NEAR KRNO/KCXP/KMEV MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. IMPACTS LOOK
TO BE MORE LIMITED TO SPOTTY -RA, BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT, AND MAYBE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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