923  
FXUS65 KVEF 211043  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
243 AM PST THU FEB 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF  
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, AND HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED  
IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TODAY AS MOST  
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS HAVE BEEN AND/OR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED  
BY SNOW. THE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY,  
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
TRICKY FORECAST DRIVEN MAINLY BY SUBTLE DYNAMICS THAT HAS NOT BEEN  
WELL RESOLVED BY MODELS. NONETHELESS, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WITHIN  
THE EXPECTED ENVELOPE SO FAR, WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW FROM  
PAHRUMP TO LAS VEGAS, NORTHEASTWARD ALONG I-15 INTO UTAH. HI-RES  
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS BAND INTO DAYBREAK,  
SOME DISSIPATE IT, SOME MAINTAIN IT, AND SOME FOLD IT INTO THE  
MAIN BAND DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THINK THERE IS A  
DECENT SHOT THIS MAINTAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE  
REGION REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. WOULD BELIEVE THAT CURRENT  
ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY MAINTAINS AND PIVOTS WITH FLOW TURNING  
SOUTHERLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAYBE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A  
BREAK AROUND MIDDAY AS LOW CENTER APPROACHES OVERHEAD BEFORE MORE  
SHOWERS GET GOING AGAIN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SNOW LEVELS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING MAY GET THE  
OPPORTUNITY TO RISE UP WITH ANY BREAKS, AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT  
HAVE BEEN GETTING SNOW MAY SWITCH BACK TO RAIN. IT IS DOUBTFUL  
THAT SNOW LEVELS RISE MORE THAN 500 FEET OR SO DURING THE DAY, AND  
PROBABLY WON'T MOVE MUCH WITHOUT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. ANY  
DAYTIME RISES WILL QUICKLY SINK BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET, SWITCHING  
ANYBODY THAT TRANSITIONED TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW BY THE EVENING.  
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING AN  
END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT STORM WILL  
BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING INTO A MUCH  
QUIETER PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MUCH MORE ZONAL  
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AND AN ATMOSPHERIC  
RIVER SLAMMING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
WILL MISS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH. LEFT SMALL POPS IN THE SIERRA FROM  
SUNDAY ONWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MOISTURE  
MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA SHOULD  
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS  
IN LAS VEGAS REACHING 50 ON SATURDAY AND THE 60S ON TUESDAY.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
MORNING, POSSIBLY TAPERING OFF AND/OR CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE  
DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW TONIGHT, THEN  
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...LOW CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER MOHAVE, LINCOLN, CLARK,  
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST  
TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS  
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
 
THU 2/21 FRI 2/22 SAT 2/23  
LAS VEGAS, NV 43 (1955) 47 (1955) 50 (2004)  
BISHOP, CA 36 (1944) 36 (1944) 36 (1944)  
BARSTOW, CA 48 (1994) 52 (1975) 53 (1969)  
NEEDLES, CA 50 (1955) 52 (1955) 52 (1894)  
KINGMAN, AZ 39 (1955) 39 (1975) 44 (1975)  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
A POTENT AND COLD WINTER STORM IS  
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS TO ROADS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM............STEELE  
LONG TERM/AVIATION....MORGAN  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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