027
FXUS65 KVEF 140529
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1029 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
* NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS HERE. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1.60 INCHES OF
PWAT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, A LOT OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE
SURFACE. FORECAST HRRR SOUNDINGS HAVE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SLOWLY
SATURATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FOR TODAY, INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG PERSIST. AS A RESULT,
THE LARGEST THREATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ARE DRY LIGHTNING
(THE BULK OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND) AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SO
FAR TODAY OCCURRED OVER THE NNSS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 58 AND 65 MPH.
BEST CAPE FOR THE DAY EXISTS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE TIMELY SKY CLEARING IS ALLOWING BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG OF
CAPE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH TODAY, SO BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST OVER MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY THREAT
TO FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, RATHER THAN DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE,
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GO THROUGH SOME WESTWARD
EXPANSION AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THOUGH
WE'VE SEEN THESE TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS YEAR, WE HAVEN'T SEEN
THESE TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT, HEAT RISK IS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGH (LEVEL 3 OF
4), AS THIS HEAT WILL FEEL MORE OPPRESSIVE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN TAKE A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
STORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL IS 21Z TO 01Z. THE PRIMARY THREATS
ARE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING,
AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 8KFT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, TEMPERATURES EXCEED
100 DEGREES BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ASIDE FROM LIGHT
SHOWERS AND STRAY OUTFLOW BREEZES IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY,
EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
STARTING LATE TOMORROW MORNING, LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. CONVECTION
SHOULD PRIMARILY FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
DOWNPOURS HAVE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT LAS VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS AND
THE OWENS VALLEY INCLUDING KBIH IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE KDAG, KEED, AND KIFP TAFS, BUT STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SUDDEN CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION FROM A
DISTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...MELTZER
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