729
FXUS65 KVEF 272132
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
232 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
*DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
*PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA ANALYSIS, QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, MAINTAINING QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT AFTERNOON BREEZES FORECAST. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FOR MOST.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OFF OF THE WEST COAST. CONCURRENTLY, A FETCH
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM VANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CLARK
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST, DEVELOPING INTO A SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL LIMIT THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS, THOUGH AS THE TROUGH AXES MOVE OVER
THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME
WIDESPREAD SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED AREAS IN MOHAVE
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE, DEPENDENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE MOISTURE PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH TS VANCE AND THE INCOMING
TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE AMPLITUDE AND TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF. MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ANOTHER EXPECTATION WITH THIS WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM, MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.
CURRENTLY, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 8500 FEET OR ABOVE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THOSE
KEEPING TRACK, THE LAST TIME LAS VEGAS HAD MEASURABLE RAIN ON
HALLOWEEN WAS ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1987, WHEN A RECORD RAINFALL FOR
THE DAY OF 0.25 INCH WAS OBSERVED. SO STAY TUNED, AND START
PLANNING AHEAD FOR POTENTIALLY SOGGY TRICK-OR-TREATING!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE S-SW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. SPEEDS
DIMINISH TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER EXPECT INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SIMILAR
DIURNAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING S-SW AROUND 21-22Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS HAVE
TURNED SOUTHERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KDAG WHICH WILL SEE W-SW WINDS PICK UP AFTER 00Z. GUSTY W-SW
WINDS PERSIST AT KDAG THROUGH AROUND 05Z BEFORE BECOMING WNW AROUND
10 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER
WINDS RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SCT HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
DIURNAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A SHIFT TO S
WINDS IN THE 19-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MOORE
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