690  
FXUS65 KVEF 171056  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
356 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
MONSOON SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS  
ACCORDING TO LONG RANGE PROJECTIONS. WHILE EBBS AND FLOWS IN  
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE, ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT FOR THE REGION  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ANOTHER TREND UPWARD IS  
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER POPS AND A  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT FOR ARIZONA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
TODAY'S CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FLAVOR  
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM  
DYNAMICALLY IS ACTUALLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MEAGER TROUGH  
WILL COME ON SHORE AND FOCUS DYNAMICAL LIFTING AT THE 700-500 MB  
LEVEL OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. ALSO GEFS/EC PWATS SHOW 2+  
SIGMA ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN INYO AND MONO COUNTIES THIS  
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION IN THESE  
AREAS AND WITH IT, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. FARTHER EAST, AWAY  
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTING, A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP  
LOOKS LIKELY, WITH HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION BEING THE FOCUS OF CI  
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEND ITSELF  
TO VERTICAL UPDRAFTS THAT ARE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED, ESPECIALLY WHEN  
DISPLACED FROM HIGH TERRAIN OROGRAPHICS, BUT GENERATING OUTFLOWS  
O'PLENTY. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED VS UP TO ABOUT 700  
MB BUT ALSO DRY AIR ALOFT WITH HEALTHY MLCAPE UP TO THE EL. IT  
LOOKS LIKE ANY UPDRAFTS THAT CAN REACH THE 17-20KFT LEVEL WILL  
START ENTRAINING DRY AIR UPON COLLAPSE AND BE THE CANDIDATES FOR  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN  
THE RAP, CAN'T RULE OUT A SVR OR TWO FOR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  
 
THAT BEING SAID, THE 00Z HREF HAS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR AT  
LEAST 30+ KT WIND GUSTS ORIGINATING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA  
PUSHING WEST INTO MOHAVE, AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST UTAH PUSHING INTO  
NORTHEAST CLARK OR EASTERN LINCOLN TONIGHT AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM  
THAT IMPACTED THE TEXAS GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND EC/GEFS  
MEANS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OFF THE  
COAST. THIS WOULD SERVE TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE TROPICAL MOISTURE  
FROM PROGRESSING FARTHER WEST AND INTO THE PACIFIC, BUT INSTEAD  
HALT ITS MOTION OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SET THE STAGE FOR A  
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
STATE, FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE PACIFIC MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT  
SLOWLY EASTWARD, WHEN IT DOES, THE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA DEFORMS  
AND STRETCHES OUT, LESSENING THE FOCUSED LIFTING OVER SOUTHERN  
ARIZONA BUT DISTRIBUTING VORT MAXES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS  
SHOULD SERVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
STATE, INCLUDING MOHAVE COUNTY, AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE  
MOJAVE PRESERVE AND THE CRV. AS OF NOW, GEFS/EC/GEM AGREE IN  
KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, BUT  
THIS WOULD PUT MANY OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF MOHAVE COUNTY IN  
THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR FURTHER FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS SUCH AS  
GOLDEN VALLEY, KINGMAN, AND THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS.  
 
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE COULD BUILD  
IN QUICKER AND PUSH THE MOISTURE SWATH FARTHER EAST PER SOME OF  
THE MINORITY CLUSTERS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A PRETTY STARK  
POP/QPF GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE BUILDING IN, WHICH IS  
CURRENTLY KEEPS MUCH OF INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, AND WESTERN SAN  
BERNARDINO MORE OR LESS DRY. BUT IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WETTER OR  
EVEN MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, THEN WOULD THINK THAT A  
FF WATCH AGAIN FOR AT LEAST MOHAVE LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET FOR  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
ONCE AGAIN TODAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE LAS  
VEGAS VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD  
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,  
A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.  
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH  
SKIES SCT AOA 12KFT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED  
ON THURSDAY, POSSIBLY STARTING EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 18Z.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ONCE  
AGAIN TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
SURROUNDING KBIH BY MID-AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE  
FIELD AFTER 22Z. STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE NEAR KDAG  
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY  
EVENING. THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SITES WILL SEE THE BEST  
CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY, LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED  
ALONG WITH SKIES SCT AOA 12KFT.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TB3  
AVIATION...PLANZ  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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