978
FXUS65 KVEF 151950
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1250 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.
* DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SIGNS OF
MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL HELP KEEP A MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FETCH OVER ARIZONA. SO FAR, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE
AS THESE AREAS WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION CREATING MORE LIFT. STORMS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WILL
HAVE MORE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. ANYTHING WEST OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL
TREND DRIER LEADING TO A GREATER THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. IT
IS UNLIKELY THESE WILL IMPACT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO CENTRAL NYE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM STORMS FROM MOHAVE COUNTY.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, THOUGH TO A
LESSER EXTENT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS BETTER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN
LIGHTNING, ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DAMPENS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING TREND THAT WILL SHIFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A SUBTLE DECREASE IN
THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THIS RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE
CURRENT RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE AND SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDWEEK, WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NOT ONLY A RESURGENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ALSO A QUICK REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK ONWARD. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS EVOLUTION, THE PRECISE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WILL DICTATE HOW FAR WEST CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY INCREASING THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 23Z WITH GUSTS AND SPEEDS REMAINING THE SAME. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 10 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 20%)
CHANCE THAT EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM DISTANCE CONVECTION MAKES IT INTO
THE VALLEY TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT TYPICAL OVERNIGHT WINDS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z, PEAKING AROUND 102F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY/WESTERLY
BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-30 KNOTS,
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN NV. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY, WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER SUNSET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD REACH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION AT TIMES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...GORELOW
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