879
FXUS65 KVEF 191106
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE ARE SEEING A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, ALTHOUGH THIS ONE MAY BE MOVING
THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER AND OVERALL IMPACTS MAY BE A BIT MORE
TEMPERED. LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAIRLY LOW.
THE HIRES MODELS STILL HIT THE SPRING MOUNTAINS FAIRLY HARD WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WITH THE ADDED UPSLOPE COMPONENT THEY COULD
RECEIVE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET AND UPWARDS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
MOUNTAIN PASS WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
TO 7 PM WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. OTHER
AREAS WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET WHERE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP AS LOW AS
3000 TO 3500 FEET AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOW. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND WILL BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. WE CURRENTLY
HAVE ADVISORIES FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY STARTING AT 10 AM,
BUT THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE MORONGO BASIN INTO
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN FROM 10 AM UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. FOR
CLARK, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES HAVE ISSUED WIND
ADVISORIES STARTING AT 4 PM AND GOING THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. MOST OF
THOSE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH, BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING WINDS EXCEEDING 55 MPH IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EXIST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO
MATERIALIZE WILL BE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WE WILL FINALLY TRANSITION INTO A QUIETER PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER, LIGHTER
WINDS, AND A WARMING TREND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS TRY TO ENTER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE RIDGE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS LIKELY
(70%), THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WINDS EVOLVE AFTER
SUNSET. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE A MOUNTAIN ROTOR
INDUCES LIGHT EASTERLY/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE TERMINAL (30%). THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WOULD ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED
TURBULENCE. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z AS RAIN CHANCES RISE ABOVE 50%. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN, BUT
ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND CIGS DOWN
TO AROUND 3KFT (50%). DRY CONDITIONS RESUME BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-35
KNOTS ARE LIKELY (70%), WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE (30%)
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF
I-15 DURING THE MORNING HOURS, SPREADING TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 3.5-5KFT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. CIGS 3-6KFT LIKELY (70%)
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES WANE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...WOODS
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