587
FXUS65 KVEF 140517
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
917 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TOMORROW.
* WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
* THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA HELPING
TO DRIVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT BASIN HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THESE 35 TO 45 MPH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA LATER TONIGHT, SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TOMORROW
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE COAST.
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN SIERRA, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 10:00 AM PST TOMORROW MORNING, PRECIPITATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TO LOW WITH PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.
IMPACTS WILL RAMP UP ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW SWINGS INLAND ALONG WITH THE
MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE. SNOW-LEVELS WILL START OFF ABOVE 9,000 FEET
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, DROPPING BELOW 8,000 FEET AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 9,000 FEET FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT, WINTER
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL TO LOW OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA CREST. DUE TO
AN INCREASED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES FROM 4:00 AM PST
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION ACROSS INYO COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE VARIABLE DUE TO THE TERRAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTY EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST RAIN. IN
DEATH VALLEY, PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE
IN THE 0.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH TOTALS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 2.00 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY UP
INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA. SHOULD A WORST CASE SCENARIO COME TO PASS
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN OF INCOMING TROUGHS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW-
NORMAL AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PERSISTENT CHANCES OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LIGHT VALLEY RAIN. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IF
YOU HAVE TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR RECREATION PLANS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 8KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-15KFT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
THEREAFTER AS CEILINGS DROP TO 8-10KFT, BECOMING BKN-OVC AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE VALLEY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHOWERS THAT COULD MOVE OFF OF THE TERRAIN
AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL, THOUGH IF THIS OCCURS, CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 8KFT. EARLY TO MID EVENING, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AROUND
5-10KT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN, INCLUDING
BIH, WHERE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 20-25KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, COINCIDENT WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING BIH AND DAG. CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15KFT, DECREASING
TO 6-8KFT ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, OWENS VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA AS SHOWERS MOVE IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, OWENS VALLEY, AND SIERRA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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