700
FXUS65 KVEF 222147
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
247 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK ONWARD, WITH A RETURN
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEEK.
* POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
TODAY'S COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM,
INCREASED ASCENT AND LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES,
THOUGH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOWER (10-20%) CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE IN CLARK COUNTY WHERE
TOPOGRAPHY WILL AID IN ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
A FITTING START TO THE ASTRONOMICAL FALL SEASON!
MIDWEEK ONWARD, INCREASING THICKNESSES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
DESERT VALLEYS (THE NORMAL HIGH IN LAS VEGAS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
91 DEGREES). FORTUNATELY, ONLY MINOR (AND LOCALIZED MODERATE)
HEATRISK WILL RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL
STAY DRY, ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE, LINGERING OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST BEFORE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-15, AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK,
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER CONVECTION WILL LINGER
OVER MOHAVE COUNTY BEYOND THURSDAY.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES
ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DEEPEN ALONG
THE WEST COAST BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING INLAND. HOWEVER, DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DISCREPANCY AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. IF
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MATERIALIZES, ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SO, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL
PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10KT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF KIFP, WHERE DOWN-VALLEY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ELEVATED AROUND 10-12KT WITH SPORADIC HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS THE MAIN CONCERNS, AND NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
AREA TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL WITH NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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