923
FXUS65 KVEF 211043
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
243 AM PST THU FEB 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, AND HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TODAY AS MOST
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS HAVE BEEN AND/OR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED
BY SNOW. THE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY,
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TRICKY FORECAST DRIVEN MAINLY BY SUBTLE DYNAMICS THAT HAS NOT BEEN
WELL RESOLVED BY MODELS. NONETHELESS, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WITHIN
THE EXPECTED ENVELOPE SO FAR, WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW FROM
PAHRUMP TO LAS VEGAS, NORTHEASTWARD ALONG I-15 INTO UTAH. HI-RES
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS BAND INTO DAYBREAK,
SOME DISSIPATE IT, SOME MAINTAIN IT, AND SOME FOLD IT INTO THE
MAIN BAND DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THINK THERE IS A
DECENT SHOT THIS MAINTAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. WOULD BELIEVE THAT CURRENT
ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY MAINTAINS AND PIVOTS WITH FLOW TURNING
SOUTHERLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MAYBE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BREAK AROUND MIDDAY AS LOW CENTER APPROACHES OVERHEAD BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS GET GOING AGAIN AND MOVE SOUTH LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING MAY GET THE
OPPORTUNITY TO RISE UP WITH ANY BREAKS, AND SOME LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEEN GETTING SNOW MAY SWITCH BACK TO RAIN. IT IS DOUBTFUL
THAT SNOW LEVELS RISE MORE THAN 500 FEET OR SO DURING THE DAY, AND
PROBABLY WON'T MOVE MUCH WITHOUT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. ANY
DAYTIME RISES WILL QUICKLY SINK BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET, SWITCHING
ANYBODY THAT TRANSITIONED TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW BY THE EVENING.
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT STORM WILL
BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING INTO A MUCH
QUIETER PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MUCH MORE ZONAL
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AND AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER SLAMMING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL MISS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH. LEFT SMALL POPS IN THE SIERRA FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MOISTURE
MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN LAS VEGAS REACHING 50 ON SATURDAY AND THE 60S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING, POSSIBLY TAPERING OFF AND/OR CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW TONIGHT, THEN
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LOW CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER MOHAVE, LINCOLN, CLARK,
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THU 2/21 FRI 2/22 SAT 2/23
LAS VEGAS, NV 43 (1955) 47 (1955) 50 (2004)
BISHOP, CA 36 (1944) 36 (1944) 36 (1944)
BARSTOW, CA 48 (1994) 52 (1975) 53 (1969)
NEEDLES, CA 50 (1955) 52 (1955) 52 (1894)
KINGMAN, AZ 39 (1955) 39 (1975) 44 (1975)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
A POTENT AND COLD WINTER STORM IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS TO ROADS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM............STEELE
LONG TERM/AVIATION....MORGAN
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