393
FXUS65 KVEF 152010
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
109 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
* BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW,
RESULTING IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING, WHICH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
* BREEZY WINDS PEAK ONCE AGAIN LATE-WEEK AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, DEATH
VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK COUNTY, FAR SOUTHERN
NYE COUNTY, SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
(INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA). THOSE SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON ARE ENCOURAGED TO BRING EXTRA WATER &
ELECTROLYTES, AND AVOID HEAVY MEALS BEFORE HEADING OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CLOSE TO TODAY'S VALUES. HOWEVER, THE "MAJOR" HEATRISK AREA SHRINKS
IN SIZE, SO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY, BUT
THEN REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE,
ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT OF THIS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT MORE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, OWENS
VALLEY, AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THESE WILL BE ISOLATED IN SPACE AND
TIME, SO I ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THESE
WINDS WILL BE COUPLED WITH EXTREMELY LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES (LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS), WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN WILDFIRE
CONCERNS. THEREFORE, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
12 PM TO 8 PM TOMORROW. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
LATE IN THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A GULF OF ALASKA
CLOSED LOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
NORTHERN MEXICO HIGH, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY,
RESULTING IN A RESURGENCE OF THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND, 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO LEVELS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM
TO 8 PM ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA (ZONES 462, 464, 465, 466)
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA (ZONES 101, 102) HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
25 TO 35 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, OWENS VALLEY, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREADS
DUE TO THESE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS COUPLED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT (5-
10%) MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES (5-
15%). TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
AND MARGINALLY IMPROVED RHS, SO A SHORT-TERM EXTENSION TO THE
WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
ADDITIONAL FIRE PRODUCTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. BE SURE TO SAFELY DISPOSE OF CIGARETTE BUTTS, AVOID
ACTIVITIES WITH SPARKS OR FLAMES (SUCH AS CAMPFIRES, TARGET
PRACTICE, FIREWORKS), AND REPORT ANY FIRE STARTS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONCERN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
10 TO 12 KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTINESS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TOMORROW
WITH SIMILAR GUSTS TO TODAY, LIKELY AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA
20KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES OVER 100F CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z, PEAKING AROUND
108F AROUND 00Z. TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100F ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 16Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ALL AREAS, EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
IN THE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
12 KNOTS OR LESS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, BUT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE ANTICIPATED AT ALL REGIONAL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA
15KFT AGL EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
FIRE WEATHER...PLANZ
AVIATION...PLANZ
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