277
FXUS65 KVEF 171721
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
921 AM PST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE
MILD AND CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
* A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
* WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO BRING WEATHER IMPACTS TO
THE REGION AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE PACNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH TO KICK UP WNW WINDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. THE TWO
AREAS OF FOCUS ARE THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN / NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS
ARE LIKELY (70%) TO BE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY (25%
CHANCE). MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. ELSEWHERE, BREEZES REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE JET STREAM DIPS SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO BRING AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SIERRA
IS LIKELY GOING TO INTERCEPT MOST OF IT, WITH POPS 40-60% IN OUR
SIERRA ZONE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
WESTERN ESMERALDA COUNTY, POPS RANGE FROM 20-35%. FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH (ABOVE 9,000 FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OR ALL OF
THE EVENT), THUS CONCERNS FOR WINTER IMPACTS ARE LOW. IN TERMS OF
LIQUID AMOUNTS AND/OR EQUIVALENT, CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 0.50" ARE
LIMITED TO THE TERRAIN AND 20-40%. IN THE VALLEYS, THIS PROBABILITY
IS ABOUT 10%.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE PATTERN SHIFTING FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A
DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN UP INTO SOCAL AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF
ANY PRECEDING, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND THE PARENT TROUGH ITSELF.
THESE DETAILS WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER (RAIN/SNOW
AMOUNTS, WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES). ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS
NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER AROUND CHRISTMASTIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT FILTERING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ELSEWHERE, DOWNVALLEY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE OWENS VALLEY, INCLUDING BIH, THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, INCLUDING DAG, FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES, WITH PASSING BANDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 71(1942)* 72(1939)* 68(2024)*
BISHOP 72(1998)* 72(1999)* 69(1985)*
NEEDLES 77(1980)* 75(2024)* 76(2024)*
DAGGETT 76(1998)* 80(1998) 76(1950)*
KINGMAN 70(1980)* 74(1980) 76(1917)
DESERT ROCK 72(1998)* 69(2024)* 69(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 88(1998) 86(1998) 75(1950)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 47(2010)* 48(1962)* 55(2010)
BISHOP 33(1978)* 38(2010) 48(1999)
NEEDLES 61(1998) 57(2010) 58(2010)
DAGGETT 49(1983)* 50(1980)* 48(1980)*
KINGMAN 44(1980)* 46(2010)* 49(2010)
DESERT ROCK 41(2014)* 45(2024)* 50(2010)
DEATH VALLEY 60(1998) 58(1914) 56(1914)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...WOODS
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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