144  
FXUS65 KVEF 290954  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
254 AM PDT TUE APR 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND  
GENERALLY LIGHT-TO-BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. A WEAK SYSTEM MID-TO-  
LATE WEEK WILL RETURN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN BEFORE THE REGION GEARS UP FOR A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THIS  
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, A DROP IN TEMPERATURES,  
AND A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO  
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE  
TO NEAR-NORMAL TODAY BEFORE CLIMBING TO ABOVE-NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC  
OCEAN AND AN EXITING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, OUR FORECAST AREA  
WILL SIT BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS IS COMMON WITH THIS  
PATTERN, A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER, RETURN CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, MODERATELY INCREASE  
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT, AND WILL TEMPER THE  
RAPID INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION.  
 
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST IN NORTHERN INYO, NORTHERN  
ESMERALDA, NORTHERN NYE, AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY,  
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75". FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST  
(100-250 J/KG) IN NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES, WHERE  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THESE AREAS, QPF IS  
ALSO HIGHEST, WITH BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30" POSSIBLE (HIGHER END OF  
THAT RANGE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOCATIONS BENEATH  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT). ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT BASIN, QPF WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.15". WITH  
SNOW LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 9500 FT, SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN  
CONFINED TO THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS  
LIKELY.  
 
OTHERWISE, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE MOJAVE  
DESERT WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH, BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL  
IMPACT.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
AGAIN, MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE  
PREVIOUS DAY'S SOLUTIONS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH  
OTHER, WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS,  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE  
PAST TWO DAYS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WHICH COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM GETTING PINCHED  
OFF AND RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA BY  
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, FORMING NOT-QUITE-A-REX-BLOCK. MODELS STILL AGREE THAT  
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA  
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE  
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET SHOWERS BEFORE  
PEAK HEATING. ON FRIDAY, THERE IS STILL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL  
PATTERN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE BIG TROUGH APPROACHES  
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,  
WHICH WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. PRECIP CHANCES  
REMAIN SMALL AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN. SATURDAY, THE BIG TROUGH SHOULD REACH OR NEARLY REACH THE  
WEST COAST, KICKING UP STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE. WIND  
HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. PRECIP  
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR  
CWA, AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COME DOWN, MORE SO IN THE  
WESTERN ZONES THAN THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE  
TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH ROLLS INLAND SUNDAY, EVOLVING INTO A  
CLOSED LOW AND REACHING OUR AREA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE,  
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REACH THEIR MAX, WITH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN  
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND SLIGHT CHANCES REACHING AS FAR  
SOUTH AS KINGMAN. ARGUABLY THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE CRASH IN  
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM  
SATURDAY, GIVING A TOTAL CHANGE OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO  
SUNDAY. SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMA...OR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES...  
FOR THE DATE WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. FOR MONDAY, THERE IS SOME  
QUESTION WHETHER THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY OR STALL OVER OUR  
AREA. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES RECOVER AND HOW  
MUCH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE.  

 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
 
 
NORTHWEST WINDS PUSH THROUGH KVGT AND KLAS AROUND 06Z. WIND SPEEDS  
WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8-10KT, ESPECIALLY AT  
ONSET THEN WIND SPEEDS MAY TAPER BACK SLIGHTLY. KHND WILL NOT SEE  
NORTHWEST WINDS, FAVORING THE SOUTH AND REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH  
TO NORTHEAST AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT WINDS  
WILL BE MORE NORTH WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KT THROUGH ABOUT 21Z, AT  
WHICH POINT WINDS WILL VEER MORE EAST AND DROP TO 8KT OR LESS.  
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCT CLOUDS ARE  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20KFT  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. KBIH WILL LOSE THE NORTH GUSTS WITH  
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 8KT THROUGH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. KDAG WILL SEE THEIR WEST PUSH THEY USUALLY SEE AT NIGHT,  
BUT IT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS. TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEVADA THROUGH  
WESTERN ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, WINDS WILL BE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS  
LIMITED TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTH GUSTS OF 20-25KT.  
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN  
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST, LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING  
TYPICAL WIND TRENDS. NO PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON  
TUESDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALL REMAINING AT OR ABOVE  
15KFT.  

 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SOULAT  
LONG TERM...MORGAN  
AVIATION...NICKERSON  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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