613
FXUS65 KVEF 232044
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
144 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2018
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE ADVERTISED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE, CLOUD COVER WAS
INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. BY MONDAY LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY AND MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE SHOWS A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE A WEAK DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NARROW, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS
AGREE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
AND SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME GREATEST OVER THE WEEKEND REGARDING
TROUGH DEPTH AND FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEKEND. BOTTOM LINE,
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROPOFF IN TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE GUSTS QUICKLY
SUBSIDING AROUND 02Z. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE BECOMING LIGHT
VARIABLE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. BY MID-MORNING, A LIGHT EAST WIND SHOULD
DEVELOP THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 19Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z-00Z WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA....SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DECREASE AND FOLLOW CLOSE
TO DIURNAL TRENDS. SIMILAR WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOOTHE
LONG TERM.............PIERCE
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