021
FXUS65 KVEF 070502
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
951 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE, THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
INDICATIONS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMING TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAIN VERY LOW (GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST), THOUGH WITH DCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 TO 1500
J/KG, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF
4) EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EACH DAY AS LONG AS THE HOT, DRY PATTERN CONTINUES.
FORTUNATELY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK AROUND,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING AN INFLUX OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.00 INCH COULD OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-15 AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY, AND GIVEN LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
SIMILAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR DAILY WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE MORNING BECOMING SSE TO SSW IN THE 16-19Z TIMEFRAME WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS. A MORE CONSISTENT WIND DIRECTION FROM THE S TO SSW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND AND AFTER 20Z WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 108 IN THE VALLEY,
EXCEEDING 100 AROUND 17-18Z AND REMAINING ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH 03-04Z. NO VIS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE... WINDS HAVE SINCE
DIMINISHED AT MOST SITES SINCE SUNSET AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. KDAG IS THE EXCEPTION AND REMAINS WESTERLY WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES. ELEVATED WINDS TO PERSIST AT KDAG
THROUGH AROUND 07-10Z, THEN GUSTS DROP OFF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. TYPICAL DAILY WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS S WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT MOST SITES IN THE 16-
18Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MOORE
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