599
FXUS65 KVEF 270546
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
946 PM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT FROM THE SIERRA TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA.
* THINGS WILL DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NORMAL AS WE KEEP OUR EYE ON ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT
THE REGION AROUND MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS PRECIPITATION,
PARTICULARLY SNOWFALL IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF IN THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS WILL EXPIRE. AUTOMATED SENSORS
AND TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE A TRAJECTORY
THAT FAVORS UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, BOOSTING
SNOWFALL OVER THAT RANGE. MOST OF IT SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE 7500 FEET IN
ELEVATION, PICKING UP IN INTENSITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. TOTALS BETWEEN EIGHT AND 16
INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND A WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
PST TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
INCLUDING DOWN TO ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 5500 FEET AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. OUTSIDE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SNOW TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING A LOCALIZED 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, THEN START TO RISE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. ATMOSPHERIC INVERSIONS MAY TRAP
COLD AIR WITHIN SOME DEEPER VALLEYS, PREVENTING AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AFTERWARDS, ATTENTION
TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT WEATHER AROUND NEW YEAR. ENSEMBLES SHOW MOISTURE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA, THEN MOVING NORTH THROUGH
ARIZONA BEFORE REACHING THE MOJAVE DESERT. THIS PATTERN IS NOT THE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
COULD STILL SUCCESSFULLY DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING SLOWER, MEANING PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER JANUARY 1. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AND
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SCT-BKN AROUND
6-7KFT, WITH VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE
VALLEY, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL WILL
INCREASE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE TRANSIENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 6SM AND
CEILINGS TO 4KFT, WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST EARLY MORNING, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO FOLLOW AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8-12KT. MID MORNING, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8KT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE FINAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY CEILINGS TO
3-6KFT AND VISIBILITY AROUND 5-6SM, AND PERSISTENT SNOW OVER THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, WITH WINDS SETTLING TOWARD
DIURNAL PATTERNS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND
5-10KT BY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN MOJAVE/DAG, WHERE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AREAWIDE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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