367
FXUS65 KVEF 040748
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1248 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED.
* MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRST RETURNING TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA
BEFORE SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. 500MB
HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 596DM TODAY, BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING A
600DM HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
UTAH BY THE WEEKEND. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY SLIGHTLY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
HEADLINES THAT ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES, REDUCING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
MAJOR OR EXTREME HEATRISK.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. THE INCREASE WILL
BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25" IN KINGMAN AND NEAR 1.5" IN
LAKE HAVASU CITY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE HIGH WILL COMBINE TO INITIALLY
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEEPER MOISTURE
PUSHING NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING STORM CHANCES TO
SPREAD NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR EASTERN
CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION BRIEFLY LATE-MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. GUSTS DECREASE IN SPEED AND
FREQUENCY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN
16 AND 05Z ON TUESDAY, WITH A HIGH OF 112.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS. CANNOT
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT KEED AND KIFP DUE
TO OUTFLOW FROM ARIZONA THUNDERSTORMS. WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS, EXPECT
GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. KDAG WILL GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST AND KBIH WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, AUG 4 WED, AUG 5 THU, AUG 6
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 114(1979)* 113(2024)* 114(2024)*
BISHOP 105(2020)* 105(2024)* 106(2024)*
NEEDLES 121(2021) 119(2019) 118(2018)
DAGGETT 114(2021)* 114(1998)* 114(1997)
KINGMAN 107(2021) 107(2019) 109(1920)
DESERT ROCK 109(2021)* 108(2024)* 109(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 126(2021) 125(1936)* 127(2017)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, AUG 4 WED, AUG 5 THU, AUG 6
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 89(2024)* 89(2024)* 91(2024)*
BISHOP 75(1961) 68(1971) 69(1979)
NEEDLES 94(1908) 94(2024) 94(2021)
DAGGETT 82(1974)* 83(1998)* 84(1983)*
KINGMAN 78(2024)* 78(2024)* 79(2019)*
DESERT ROCK 79(2018)* 81(2015)* 82(1994)*
DEATH VALLEY 100(1925) 100(1915)* 99(2024)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...SOULAT
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