323
FXUS65 KVEF 210433
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
833 PM PST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY THE
WEEKEND, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
CALM WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY FREEZING.
BISHOP, CA IS CURRENTLY AT 30 DEGREES. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
IT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
102 PM PST WED NOV 20 2024/
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO
THE NORTH WILL KEEP US SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS, BUT
OTHERWISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
COMING DAYS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE BUT WILL ONLY
RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES THANKS TO WEAK SURFACE INVERSIONS AND A
LACK OF WIND/ENHANCED SURFACE MIXING TO WARM TEMPERATURES ANY
FURTHER.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER DURING THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE POTENT
LOW/TROUGH IN THE NE PACIFIC TO SAG SOUTH, BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH IT. PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA LIKELY REMAINS DRY (PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS THAN 20%). AS
WE ROLL INTO SUNDAY, THE HIGHER POPS SPREAD EAST, WITH 20-60%
CHANCES ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY WANE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES SOUTH. AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REACHES A BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED FORCING MECHANISMS, POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONFINED TEMPORALLY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTS, THESE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED
IN WESTERN INYO COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
MINOR HYDRO IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE THERE
IS A ~20% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY - MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS EXISTS IN THE SIERRA AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PAINTS THESE RANGES WITH 25-75%
CHANCES OF AT LEAST MINOR WINTER IMPACTS, PRIMARILY ABOVE 7000 FEET.
MODERATE IMPACTS OR HIGHER ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 8000
FEET, WITH ASPENDELL HAVING A ~40%. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 8500-9000' WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS, BUT GRADUALLY FALL TO
~5000' BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN POPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA FALL
BELOW 20%. FARTHER EAST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER AS THE SIERRA WRINGS OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE. MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS HAVE A 30% CHANCE OR LESS OF SEEING 0.25" OF RAIN, WHILE
THE MOUNTAINS HAVE AROUND A 1/3 CHANCE (OR LESS) OF SEEING 4"+ OF
SNOW.
BEYOND PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS AN UPTICK IN WINDS. AT
THE MOMENT, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACTFUL WINDS EXISTS FROM
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THESE AREAS WITH 40-70%
CHANCES OF SEEING 40+ MPH GUSTS. THE ENHANCED WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL
HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES VIA VERTICAL MIXING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH IN SUNDAY - TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SETTLE IN
FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS AT THE REMAINING LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES AND
KDAG WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS. WINDS AT KBIH WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
WITH BREEZIER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. KEED WILL SEE WINDS GO FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH MID-TO-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AT KIFP WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL
PICK UP SLIGHTLY AND SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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