472
FXUS65 KVEF 062157
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
257 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED IN DEATH VALLEY.
* CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US HAS RESULTED IN A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE SMALL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOMORROW,
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECLINE. MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK
WILL PERSIST IN DEATH VALLEY AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 100S EACH DAY, AND MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES DURING PEAK
HEATING.
A PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND ABSORBS REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL. A FORECAST WITH THIS MANY MOVING
PARTS WILL OF COURSE BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THIS INCOMING TROUGH,
LENDING CREDENCE TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY
THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTCOMES SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF OUR EASTERN
ZONES DEPENDING ON HOW THIS INCOMING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL TRENDS WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABILITY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS FOLLOW TYPICAL
DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SPEEDS REACH THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AT KIFP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN LINCOLN
COUNTY SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, OCT 6 WED, OCT 7 THU, OCT 8 FRI, OCT 9
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 100(2024) 99(1978)* 98(2024)* 97(2024)*
BISHOP 94(2024) 94(1965)* 95(1996) 93(2015)
NEEDLES 111(2024) 107(2024) 107(2024) 104(1996)*
DAGGETT 105(2024) 102(2024) 101(1996)* 103(1980)
KINGMAN 100(2024) 99(2024) 98(1996) 98(1910)
DESERT ROCK 100(2024) 99(2024) 98(1996)* 97(1996)
DEATH VALLEY 110(2024)* 109(2024)* 112(1996)* 112(1996)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, OCT 6 WED, OCT 7 THU, OCT 8 FRI, OCT 9
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 74(2024)* 75(2024)* 76(2024)* 72(2024)*
BISHOP 52(2018) 57(1943) 51(1960) 61(2025)
NEEDLES 77(2023)* 76(1947)* 76(2024)* 76(1988)*
DAGGETT 75(2024) 72(2024)* 69(1980)* 69(1996)*
KINGMAN 67(1949)* 69(1947)* 67(1960)* 68(1926)*
DESERT ROCK 66(1990)* 65(1980)* 70(2024) 65(1991)*
DEATH VALLEY 83(1943)* 80(1943)* 85(1964)* 78(2024)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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