576
FXUS65 KVEF 010829
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
129 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY TODAY. NO IMPACTFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
NEVADA FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR THUNDERSTORMS RISKS EXPECTED. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY, IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS BROAD
FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER
PAINTED THROUGH NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY FOR TODAY WHICH IS A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS POP ON THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS LIKE THEY HAVE THE LAST FEW DAYS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
AS HREF HAS ONLY LOW (20% OR LESS) PROBABILITIES FOR CAPE OVER 500MB.
THIS COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND BROAD, DIFFUSE FORCING
WILL MEAN THAT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL AGAIN BE MINOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS, WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, STORMS IN ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
MAY CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT CONTINUES PAST SUNSET. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FEATURE, THOUGH FLASH FLOODING ISN'T EXPECTED AS HREF 3HR PMMS
ONLY PAINT 10% PROBABILITIES AS IT MOVES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. IF THIS
FEATURE DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE ON
FRIDAY, TAKING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN
LINCOLN COUNTY. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA, WITH A FEW OUTFLOWS NOTED WITH THIS
CONVENTION ON HI-RES WIND MODELS. OVERALL THOUGH, THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY'S STORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WARM AND LESS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, IT WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE. ON FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT
AGAIN NOT QUITE TO TYPICAL-JUNE LEVELS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
THE NORMAL-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. THIS RIDGING WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. OTHER
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS PRODUCED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WHICH HAVE US LEANING TOWARDS COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THESE PERIODS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REACHING THE TERMINAL ARE MUCH LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA ACROSS INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CEILINGS
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
AREAWIDE, AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA
NEVADA, NYE, LINCOLN, AND FAR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
AVIATION...MORGAN
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