546
FXUS65 KVEF 310946
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
A POWERFUL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AS A RESULT OF
THESE WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN INSTANCES OF BLOWING DUST, HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, CHOPPY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS BEING
BLOWN AWAY. ON A SMALLER SCALE, WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY, SPRING MOUNTAINS,
WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY, NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NYE COUNTY TODAY. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER MAKING IT TO HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF
LONE PINE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, WE ARE LOOKING AT AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF DOWNSLOPE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF RAINBOW
BOULEVARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY WE WILL
SEE THE WIND THREAT BECOME ISOLATED TO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ON THE TABLE DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN HAVE AROUND A 20 TO 50% CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT
SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE CREST OF THE SIERRA, WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. LOWER IN ELEVATION, AT ASPENDELL(8,400'), SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SHOULD THEY
SEE THE HIGHER END SCENARIO VERIFY.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OVERHEAD TROUGH GETS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE PACNW. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, THE ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TPH AND IGM SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 50 TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES ARE ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN, MOHAVE, AND CLARK
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE 30-60%. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET, SO MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MERGE
INTO THE LARGER TROUGH, IT TRIES TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW'S PLACEMENT,
LEADING TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE SAME
AREAS. AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH'S
EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE-WEEK/WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH KEEPS
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND. SOME LINGERING WIND
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
REMAINS BELOW 50% ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN
THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 20-25KT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
09Z TO 30-35KT. BASED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THE WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO COME IN WAVES OFF OF THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS, WITH PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF LULLS WITH GUSTS DROPPING TO 20-25KT AS WINDS
BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTH, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
ONCE AGAIN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS WELL AS
THE MAGNITUDE OF WINDS IS TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION IN
THE TAF, THOUGH EXPECT THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE
MOST IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 40KT
EXPECTED AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACH 30KT, WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS OVER 40KT POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AFTER SUNSET AS
WINDS DIMINISH BUT ELEVATED AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, BY
01/08Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
LOCALIZED, TRANSIENT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PERIODIC
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS TO KLAS, IN THAT GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-35KT WILL BE COMMON, WITH WINDS
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT POSSIBLE. WHILE KHND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, KVGT IS EXPECTED TO SEE A
SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT PRIOR TO 01/00Z, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
THEREAFTER. WINDS AT KBIH WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING SHARPLY BY
AROUND 17Z WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25KT SUSTAINED WITH 35KT GUSTS. BY EARLY
EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KDAG, WITH GUSTS
TO 25-35KT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-45KT POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER. IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, FIRST BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KIFP AROUND 10Z, AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT KEED BY 18Z. KIFP WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30KT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, DIMINISHING AFTER
02Z, WHEREAS WINDS AT KEED GUST TO 20-25KT MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNSET. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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