865
FXUS65 KVEF 291750
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1050 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY AND WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND, MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS CLARK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE
SOME RECOVERY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND BY MID AFTERNOON EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WHERE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOHAVE COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. MEANWHILE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN,
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. OUTSIDE
OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO
6 DEGREES ABOVE THEIR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SOME CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SHOWERS
CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET BEFORE
ENDING. THERE REMAINS A WINDOW FROM ROUGHLY 20Z- 23Z WHEN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (AROUND A 20%
CHANCE). EXPECT LIGHTNING STRIKES, ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 4-5KFT AND AROUND 5SM
RESPECTIVELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT IMPACTS THE TERMINAL. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, CEILINGS AROUND 6-8KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
IMPROVE TO 10-12KFT THIS EVENING, CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED, BEFORE GUSTS DIMINISH AND WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER
10KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT
ISSUANCE, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS (KIFP
AND KEED) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY DURING A BRIEF WINDOW MID-
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND VISIBILITY/CEILING
REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
ELEVATED/GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT COMMON. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST, WITH LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
WILL BE KDAG/THE WESTER MOJAVE, WHERE WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS AROUND 6-
10KFT COULD BE LOWER WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED THIS EVENING ONWARD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...CZYZYK
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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