005
FXUS65 KVEF 210734
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1234 AM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH
DAILY STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WORKING WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS WORKING AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHERN NEVADA AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. IF THESE DO HOLD TOGETHER, IT'S LIKELY THEY WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AS THERE REALLY ISN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOHAVE,
LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, BUT THESE SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE RATHER ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE ONE
AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY WHERE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A VORT MAX
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY. LIKE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE GREATEST
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA WITH PWATS DROPPING CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT LIKELY WON'T COMPLETELY END
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DRYING WE
SEE AND HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH HAS ON THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT AT THIS POINT,
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE WIDESPREAD MINOR AND
MODERATE (LEVEL 1 AND 2) HEAT RISK EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3) AND POCKETS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4) HEAT RISK DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A RETURN OF HIGHER IMPACT HEAT, HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION. THOSE WHO WILL BE
OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO ENSURE THEY STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IN
THE AIR CONDITIONING WHENEVER POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW WINDS
IMPACTING THE VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z-08Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST. VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT (<10% CHANCE). SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LESS
THAN 20%, BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATE AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AND
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SHIFTING WINDS INTO THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100F AFTER 19Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS TAF SITES. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CLARK,
LINCOLN, NYE, AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT (30-40%) OCCURRING NEAR KBIH. BARRING CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN. BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH/WEST WINDS IN AREAS
WEST WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...GORELOW/OUTLER
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