738  
FXUS65 KVEF 081044  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
345 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PRISCILLA MOVES INTO  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
 
* POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND COLORADO RIVER  
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY, BUT WE WILL  
START TO SEE SOME MINOR CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE  
PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH TODAY INCREASING THE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. THIS WILL BRING SOME  
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN INYO, ESMERALDA,  
AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED. MOST OF THOSE AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, BUT  
WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY COULD SEE AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING 40  
MPH. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE, BUT MOST  
AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS 10-20 MPH. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A  
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND RISING  
HEIGHTS.  
 
CHANGES ARE IN STORE THURSDAY ONWARD AS INCREASING MOISTURE FROM  
HURRICANE PRISCILLA IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING  
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD  
NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE  
WATER ANOMALIES OF 250-350% OF NORMAL OR GREATER WILL ENCOMPASS MOST  
OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
 
THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN  
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE  
WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HINTING AT AN AXIS OF  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE  
COLLOCATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET BY  
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS SETS UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE  
I-15 CORRIDOR, WITH ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING  
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY.  
 
WHAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE STRATIFORM VERSUS CONVECTIVE, BUT GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH, HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD CERTAINLY POSE A FLOOD  
RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH INCREASING.  
 
THIS DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY  
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
 
WINDS  
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS INTO THIS EVENING, SHIFTING  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING, AND TO  
THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 8KT. LATE AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THE EVENING, WINDS SETTLE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH, REMAINING  
AROUND 8KT, THOUGH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS TO 12-15KT CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH  
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE EVENING ONWARD. VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE  
TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS INTO  
THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH  
AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY REMAIN AROUND  
10KT OR LESS, THOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, THE  
SOUTHERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AND IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. IN THE  
OWENS VALLEY, KBIH WILL SEE GUSTY UP-VALLEY WINDS FROM AFTERNOON  
ONWARD, PEAKING AROUND 30-35KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.  
ELSEWHERE, WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/OUTLER  
AVIATION...GORELOW  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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