621
FXUS65 KVEF 151030
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH DETAILS SUCH AS COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER CALM EARLY MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND, BUT CHANGES ARE
STILL ON THE HORIZON. IT WAS NOTED 24 HOURS AGO THAT TROPICAL STORM
MARIO COULD REGENERATE, AND IT DID SO. EARLY THIS MORNING, MARIO WAS
CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND MOVING NORTHWEST. THE
CUTOFF LOW NOTED YESTERDAY WAS WELL OFFSHORE OF ENSENADA, AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS MARIO
TRACKS NORTHWEST OVER COLDER WATERS, IT SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER, ITS
REMNANTS WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA, AND PWS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
STILL PROGGED TO SURGE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION,
BUT THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER THERE WILL BE FORCING TO LIFT
THE MOIST AIR. THUS, THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF TOTAL NBM QPF SHOWS
LITTLE OR NO RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA, WHILE THE 75TH PERCENTILE
SHOWS ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR THE RAIN WOULD BE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY, THEN SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS WE GET CLOSER, THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING CLEARER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 7 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BY LATE MORNING, TAKING A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10
KNOTS, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES UNDER 100 DEGREES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
OWENS VALLEY INCLUDING KBIH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AREAWIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MORGAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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