842  
FXUS65 KVEF 071843  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
1042 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE  
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE  
AT THIS TIME IS LIMITED.  
 
   
UPDATE  
WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE  
SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE DESERT. SO FAR THIS MORNING WIND  
GUSTS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS,  
ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WERE NOTED NEAR DESERT ROCK AND  
RED ROCK CANYON EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PROVIDED THIS TREND MATERIALIZES AS  
EXPECTED, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON  
SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. I CONSIDERED ENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING  
FOR THE SIERRA, WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM EARLY. HOWEVER,  
WHILE THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, GUSTY WINDS OF 40  
TO 50 MPH CONTINUE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON, AND THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO END ON SCHEDULE.  
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  
 
-PLANZ  
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
212 AM PST FRI FEB 7 2025  
   
SHORT TERM  
TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
 
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND  
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE DESERT ROCK-MERCURY ASOS  
HAS RECORDED CONSISTENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH FOR THE PAST  
3 HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THESE GUSTS ARE EXTREMELY ISOLATED IN  
NATURE AND THAT THIS IS THE ONLY SENSOR IN THE ZONE RECORDING WINDS  
OF THIS MAGNITUDE, WE WILL NOT BE UPGRADING TO A HIGH WIND WARNING  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE LATEST MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR (MRMS) IMAGERY SHOWS  
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, WITH RAIN SPILLING  
INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE OWENS VALLEY. WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING  
SHOWERS, THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HAS  
BEGUN TO DIMINISH, INDICATING A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION  
ACTIVITY. THIS MATCHES WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AND HIGH  
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THESE OBSERVED TRENDS AND  
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA WILL  
MORE THAN LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN SIERRA  
AND OWENS VALLEY, THE SPRING MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA SAW LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH SENSORS IN THE AREA PICKING  
UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF  
RAIN. THE MOUNTAINS OF ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES  
WILL HAVE A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIVING THE  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) INTO THE SIERRA LIFTS THROUGH TO OUR NORTH.  
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
WILL FALL AS RAIN BELOW 7,500 FEET.  
 
WEATHER WILL BE QUIETER, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER, ACROSS THE  
REGION ON SATURDAY.  
   
LONG TERM  
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QUIET AND SEASONABLY  
COOL WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER WEAK TROUGHING. ABOUT  
TWO THIRDS OF THE PERTURBATIONS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE  
TROUGH DEEPENING TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF  
CANADA, WHICH WOULD COOL OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IF IT  
VERIFIES. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TAKES AIM AT THE WEST COAST. AS WAS THE CASE  
YESTERDAY, THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE AND  
WHEN THIS AR WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THERE IS A CLEAR TREND TOWARD THE  
AR TAKING LONGER TO REACH LAND, AND AS SUCH, POPS IN OUR AREA  
HAVE DECREASED ON WEDNESDAY AND THE HIGHER VALUES HAVE MOVED TO  
THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE OF LIMITED UTILITY, BUT JUST  
AS A COMPARATIVE EXAMPLE, THE ECMWF SHOWS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR  
TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES OVER 300 KG PER M PER S REACHING SOUTHERN  
NEVADA MIDDAY THURSDAY, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NOTHING MAKING IT OVER  
THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES. THIS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE  
ECMWF'S FLOW TRAJECTORY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERSUS THE  
GFS'S FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST. AGAIN, THIS ONLY  
SERVES TO DEMONSTRATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AR AND ITS  
EFFECTS (OR LACK THEREOF) ON OUR CWA. PERHAPS THINGS WILL BECOME  
CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID  
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH LATE EVENING. EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS ARE TRENDING MORE  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT CONTINUING UNTIL JUST  
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AFTER 14Z, WINDS WILL VEER TRUE SOUTHWESTERLY,  
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH A 60-80%  
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 30KT. FURTHER, THERE IS A 50-70%  
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 35-40KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN  
DECREASING, THOUGH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KT REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH  
LATE EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO LARGELY DIMINISH BY 08/06Z, WITH WINDS  
REMAINING ELEVATED WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KT FOR A FEW  
HOURS BEFORE WIND SPEEDS FINALLY DROP BELOW 8KT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHEN WINDS BECOME VARIABLE.  
ASIDE FROM THE WINDS, SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 7-10KFT ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS  
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, AND WHILE WINDS COULD LEAD  
TO LOCALIZED LOFTED BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL,  
CONFIDENCE IN TANGIBLE IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF  
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...LAS VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TRENDS  
SIMILAR TO THOSE AT HARRY REID. GUSTS TO 25-35KT WILL CONTINUE AT  
BOTH KHND AND KVGT THROUGH LATE EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH  
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING FOR KHND AFTER 09Z, AND  
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS AT KVGT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z GIVING WAY  
TO STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEREAFTER. AT KDAG, GUSTY WESTERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 25-35KT EXPECTED, STRONGEST DURING  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY  
TERMINALS, KIFP AND KEED WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS DEVELOPING  
BY 18-19Z. GUSTS THERE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 20-25KT, WITH  
WINDS DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. KBIH IS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING WITH  
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY, THOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE. OVERALL, WINDS AT KBIH WILL  
TREND SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING ELEVATED AND GUSTY BY MID-  
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS GRADUALLY  
DECREASE THEREAFTER, THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND AT  
LEAST INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. TERMINALS WILL SEE FEW-  
SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS  
IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT AROUND 20KFT THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS  
OTHERWISE PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN  
LONG TERM...MORGAN  
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON  
 
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