830  
FXUS65 KVEF 221938  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
1136 AM PST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK BESIDES BREEZY WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO  
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND, PARTICULARLY  
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE  
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT  
THAT FAVORS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S WINDS SHOULD  
BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THURSDAY'S WINDS. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE ON FRIDAY OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH IN AREAS NEAR  
LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
USE EXTRA CAUTION IF BOATING ON LAKE MOHAVE.  
 
WINDS LIGHTEN AND FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
START TO PUSH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST  
BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN THE  
RIDGE AND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
HIGH TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH  
RANGE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND PEAK ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. LAS VEGAS  
HAS A 76 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE DEFLECTS ANY  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
STILL WATCHING THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND  
HOW IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN INSIDE SLIDER DIVING OUT OF BRITISH  
COLUMBIA. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THESE STORMS WILL  
REMAIN SEPARATE ON MONDAY, WITH A WEAK MOISTURE FEED INTO ARIZONA  
AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW CAUSING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE,  
WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW  
CAUSES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE MUDDLED THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. OF  
THE FOUR MAIN MODEL CLUSTERS PER WPC, TWO NOW PHASE THE LOWS AND  
SWING THE RESULTING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH INLAND, WHILE ONE CLUSTER  
IS SLOWER TO PHASE THE STREAMS, AND ONE KEEPS THEM SEPARATE.  
THUS, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND  
MONDAY. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS PER THE FIRST TWO CLUSTERS  
MENTIONED, PRECIP CHANCES WOULD END RAPIDLY AS DRIER, COLDER AIR  
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. THE THIRD AND  
FOURTH CLUSTERS IMPLY LESS WIND, WITH PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING.  
WEDNESDAY IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM  
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING IN TO THE CUTOFF LOW STILL HANGING  
AROUND THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW DRY CONDITIONS WITH  
DECREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
 
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED  
TODAY, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-8 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH  
JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER THE TERRAIN FEATURES IN THE  
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE  
PEAKS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE, HOWEVER, NOTHING IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY  
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE  
REGIONAL TAF SITES, FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. EXCEPTION WILL  
BE NEAR KIFP AND KEED WHERE NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KNOTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME  
SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER THE TERRAIN FEATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW  
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER PEAKS OF  
SOUTHERN NEVADA. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MELTZER  
LONG TERM...MORGAN  
AVIATION...GORELOW  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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