010
FXUS65 KVEF 210403
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON HAS ARRIVED, ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS, STRONGEST IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WE
EYE A PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONG
1050MB+ HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
ROCKIES. VERY DRY AIR WITH SUBZERO DEWPOINTS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE REGION AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH WINDS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE IDEAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FREE OF FREEZES
TONIGHT, BUT ANY SHELTERED PATCHES COULD CERTAINLY DROP BELOW. THE
FORECAST LOW IN LAS VEGAS TONIGHT IS 28 DEGREES WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS WINTER, AND THE COLDEST IT'S BEEN IN
SEVERAL YEARS. IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, THE TEMPERATURE MAY STAY A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. IN KINGMAN THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 30F AND WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TONIGHT, WITH THE
HARD FREEZE WARNING LOOKING GOOD.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE MORNING SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA. SURFACE OBS SHOWED GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF 24 HOURS
AGO, AS THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS BEING OFFSET BY
INCREASED VENTILATION AND DEEPER MIXING DUE TO THE WINDS. THE WINDS
ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE
WIDESPREAD IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS OF THIS TYPING, SO NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE NBM STILL INSISTS THAT
WINDS IN THE CRV WILL DIE OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND NOT PICK BACK UP
TO ADVISORY LEVEL TOMORROW, SO THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY. THE DISTANT SHORTWAVE PASSING BY
ON WEDNESDAY (ALSO NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT) WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY THAT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, IF ANY, WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA. THE NBM AND THE MOS GUIDANCES
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE SECOND CONCERN. THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR KINGMAN LOOKS GOOD, AS OUR LOCAL PARAMETERS FOR
PREDICTING DAMAGING HARD FREEZES STILL POINT TOWARD KINGMAN
EXPERIENCING ONE TONIGHT, ASSUMING THE WINDS WEAKEN IN TIME. PAHRUMP
IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN, BUT PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS "FAVORABLE"
THERE. IF WINDS SETTLE DOWN IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURE AT KLAS TO DROP DOWN TO THE FORECAST LOW OF 28 DEGREES,
IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME THE OFFICIAL SENSOR HAS REACHED THE 20S
SINCE JANUARY 2, 2022. AS ALWAYS, NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND THE EDGES OF
THE VALLEY WILL BE COLDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL COME UP A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO COME UP A FEW
DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST COAST UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY THEN WILL BE FLATTENED AND SHUNTED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY A LARGE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TURNING COLDER AND
UNSETTLED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
LIKELY DIGS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WHILE SPINNING UP INTO A
LARGE CLOSED OR CUT- OFF LOW. MORE MEMBERS FROM THE LATEST ECMWF,
GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN.
SO, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE
LATEST NBM POP VALUES NOW RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT MSL ARE STILL INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE NBM SHOWS A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY. IT'S
STILL EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED, BUT IT'S HARD NOT TO SINCE WE ARE
SO LONG OVERDUE FOR A GOOD WINTER STORM IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WE
WILL KEEP WATCHING TO SEE HOW THE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
GUST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 30KT ARE LIKELY AT TIMES, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE THROUGH 21Z TODAY WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS OVER 30KTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 010-040 DEGREES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LAS VEGAS VALLEY AIRPORT SITES WILL SEE
SIMILAR TRENDS, THOUGH KVGT GUSTY WINDS ONSET WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AROUND 20Z AND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AS PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 30KT IS LOW (AROUND 20%).
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL END AFTER 00Z, HOWEVER ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT ARE
LIKELY (70% PROBABILITY OR MORE) THROUGH AROUND 06Z. WINDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY 06Z, THEN QUICKLY
DROP OFF AROUND 09Z WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SET UP. VARIABLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD INCLUDING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-60% PROBABILITY) FOR
NORTH WINDS TO GUST OVER 40KT. KDAG WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PUSH IN
AROUND 20Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 5SM AT TIMES IN DUST PRONE AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. GUSTS AT KBIH AND KDAG WILL END
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH TYPICAL OVERNIGHT WIND TRENDS RETURNING AT
KBIH BY 03Z BUT ELEVATED EAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KDAG THROUGH ABOUT
06Z. KDAG MAY SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z, HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT EVEN WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND, AND MORE LIKELY
IS THAT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WILL SET UP AS WINDS GO LIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON. KEED AND KIFP
WILL SEE NORTHERLY GUSTS DROP BACK TO 25KT TO 35KT AROUND 03Z, THEN
DROP BACK FURTHER AROUND 09Z WHEN GUSTS AT KEED END AND DROP TO
AROUND 25KT AT KIFP. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT
RETURNING AT KEED AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
FAVORING DIURNAL PATTERNS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...NICKERSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page