711
FXUS66 KEKA 102101
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
201 PM PDT FRI APR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD AIR MOVES IN. A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH
TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE BEEN
DELAYED SLIGHTLY DUE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES TO
YESTERDAY (800-1000 J/KG) ARE EXPECTED, BUT SHEAR IS WEAKER AT
AROUND 20-30 KTS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THESE STORMS FROM BEING AS
STRONG. STILL, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS. SHOULD TRAINING STORMS DEVELOP, FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME
A RISK.
THE SECONDARY UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN MENDOCINO & LAKE COUNTIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THIS SYSTEM. CAMS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, PERHAPS TO 45 MPH TO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES, BUT THE BULK OF THE WINDS APPEAR TO THE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR MENDOCINO
AND LAKE COUNTIES, WHICH COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN SATURDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING SHOWERS SUNDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY FROM 5500 TO 6000 FT DOWN TO 3500
TO 4000 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SNOW DOWN TO
HIGHWAY 3 AT SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS AND ALONG THE HIGHEST PASSES ON
HIGHWAY 36. SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS COULD SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES, WHILE SOUTH
FORK MOUNTAIN COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY ABOVE 5000 FT FROM SATURDAY
EVENING TO SUNDAY EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DURING AND AND BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNINGS. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS
MIGHT BE NEEDED. LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. NBM IS
SHOWING AROUND A 50-70% CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN (>0.1") FOR THE
NORTH COAST WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH SMALLER CHANCES INLAND AND INTO
MENDOCINO & LAKE. THE CHANCE FOR OVER 1" IS LOW, AROUND 20% IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE, AND NEAR ZERO ELSEWHERE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...(10/18Z TAFS)
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN MIST HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS,
BECOMING VARIABLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WHILE CONDITIONS FOR UKI ARE
MOSTLY VFR. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHRA ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR VCTS BETWEEN 10/19Z-11/01Z FOR THE TAF SITES,
ESPECIALLY FOR KUKI. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WITH ANY TSRA (THUNDERSTORM). SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE TONIGHT, ALLOWING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING SHRA. SURFACE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
11/15Z AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN UKI. /ZVS
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTH AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW SEAS BELOW 3
FEET PERSIST AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THESE SHOULD
PROMOTE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
GREATER THAN 30 KTS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A RAPID AND BRIEF
INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO, WITH ISOLATED GUST UP
TO 34 KNOTS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS AROUND 6-7 FEET AT 6-7
SECONDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEST-NORTWEST SEAS AROUND 5-7
FEET AT 9-10 SECONDS AND SOME SMALL SWELLS WILL DOMINATED THE WATERS
ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGEST A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MID-NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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