935
FXUS66 KEKA 141845
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1145 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASE AND INLAND TEMPERATURES REACH THE HIGH 80S TO LOW
90S.
* A RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FWZ
418 & 419 IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY TOMORROW DUE TO LOW RH (<20%) AND
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35MPH.
* THIS WEEKENDS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE, YET TIMING OF
REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR A SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ARRIVAL.
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR
LAKE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE WEEK'S WARMING TREND REMAINS STRONG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING EVEN MORE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. OFFSHORE WIND
WILL ENHANCE THE WARMTH ALONG THE COAST AS WELL, KEEPING SKIES
RELATIVELY CLEAR. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BLOW INTO
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS FORCING
THE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER, EASING
WINDS FROM 3PM ONWARD BOTH DAYS.
THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MODELED TO INFLUENCE THE
PACNW FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO WAIVER ON THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS STORM DOES NOT
SEEM TO HAVE THE MAKE UP OF A RAIN-MAKER SO A CHANGE IN LOCATION AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW CAN DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN NW CA. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT REMAINS TO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
EVENING. DS
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN. NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST BEFORE TURNING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THIS EVENING. CALMING WINDS AND SOME VERY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW JUST BEFORE DAWN. INLAND AREAS
CAN EXPECT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CALMING. DS
MARINE
MODERATE SUSTAINED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE MODERATELY STEEP IN THE OUTER WATERS UP TO 6
FEET, BUT A CHAOTIC, MIXED SEA STATE PERSISTS WHEN COMBINED WITH
ONGOING MID PERIOD SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONGER NORTH WINDS RETURN AROUND
SATURDAY. A LARGE NW SWELL OF 7-8 FEET IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY
AS WELL, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX AND CHAOTIC SEA
STATE. DS
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARMING TREND OF THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE NOW EXTREME FOR MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA INCREASING CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. RIDGES WILL BE THE
AREAS OF PRIMARY CONCERN WITH POOR RECOVERIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING OVER THE TERRAIN. THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD POSSIBLY FLOW OVER TERRAIN
IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR FWZ
418 & 419 TOMORROW FROM 4AM-2PM DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG
WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED CONDITIONS REMAINS. AREAS ELSEWHERE CAN
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. THIS WEEKEND, A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE EFFECT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVING LATE
THIS WEEKEND. DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ418-
419.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ418-419.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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