515
FXUS66 KEKA 011225
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
525 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING COASTAL STRATUS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY, AND
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A CUTOFF MID TO UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
VORT MAX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BE INITIALLY
MOISTURE STARVED, BUT WILL BRING AMPLE FORCING. LATEST CAMS FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NE TRINITY
COUNTY AS THE SHORTWAVE TAPS INTO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN CONSIST OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH A
WARMING TREND, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 90'S BY SUNDAY FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. A CUTOFF, MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE CA COAST
ON SUNDAY, AND WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT WHILE ADVECTING IN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. INITIAL MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS
HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE AFTERNOON MLCAPE OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS
STARTING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MORE INLAND,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL STALL AND MEANDER AROUND CA
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY MAINTAINING THE DESCRIBED PATTERN,
THOUGH CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLES REVEAL DIVERGENCE IN ITS TRACK BY MID
NEXT WEEK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY TRACK, MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
NBM CURRENTLY HOLDS SOME 15% TO 25% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF 24H RAINFALL BY MID NEXT WEEK. /JJW
AVIATION
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM KACV TO HUMBOLDT BAY AND
INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. WINDS HAVE MOSTLY DECOUPLED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, NW
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AT KCEC, WHILE THE WINDS AT
KACV WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KUKI WITH LIGHTER WINDS, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. /SEC
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TODAY. STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE N INNER WATERS, WHERE A HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED THROUGH MID-MORNING. NORTHERN GALES WILL
REDEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND. /SEC
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455-470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
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