429
FXUS66 KEKA 152304
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MONDAY
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500 TO 2500 FEET IMPACTING
MOST HIGHWAYS THROUGH THE INTERIOR. LIGHTER RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION
SNOW ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN OVER 5000 FEET.
* MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES HIGHWAYS
199, 299, 36, AND 3. THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG NW
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFF THE
NW CALIFORNIA COAST ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS
MOVES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY
IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, WHERE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN AROUND 12 HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS, STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 5,000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE
FIRST SYSTEM WEAKEN AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO START FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY, DROPPING TO AROUND 3,000 TO 4,000 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS TO OUR AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING, AND WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE WHEN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STARTS IN THE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY TO
AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASS AS THE SNOW LEVEL DROP
RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED INCLUDE
DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLY POWER LINES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
SHOWING OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ON HWY 299 AT BERRY SUMMIT AND ON HWY
199 AT THE COLLIER TUNNEL. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS ON
HWY 299 AT OREGON MOUNTAIN AND BUCKHORN SUMMIT WITH LESS PRECIP
THAT FAR INLAND. SMALLER ROADS SUCH AS MATTOLE ROAD AND SHELTER
COVE ROAD AS WELL AS NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS FARTHER INLAND WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE SNOW. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FEET IN DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES. FOR
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, LESS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 2500 FEET. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AMOUNTS
IS FORECAST FOR HWY 101 AT RATTLESNAKE SUMMIT AND HWY 175 AT COBB
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500 IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM INCLUDES ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN CREATE SLIPPERY "ICE RINK" CONDITIONS ON THE
ROADS IN A MATTER OF SECONDS. HAVE TO HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL IN DEL NORTE COAST AND
HUMBOLDT COAST. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FOR ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL
ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ON TUESDAY. THIS NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AND MAY NEED TO
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MENDOCINO COAST DUE TO
ACCUMULATING HAIL.
SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND SNOW
EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST BROAD BRUSHES THE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO START RISING. /ZVS
AVIATION.
RAIN HAS ARRIVED TO THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. CEILINGS HAVE
REMAINED MVFR TO VFR AS CEILINGS REMAIN ELEVATED. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT LOWER VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER, BUT
THESE ARE LARGELY BRIEF. MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY AND THE BIGGER POTENTIAL FOR MORE IMPACTFUL
CONDITIONS. UKI COULD SEE CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT
TIMES TODAY FROM HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. UKI IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. JB
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS WERE RECORDED ON SOME BUOYS THIS MORNING. THE
SOUTHERLIES WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY THE EARLY EVENING, BUT COULD
REMAIN BREEZY SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY,
BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW. GALE FORCE GUSTS,
STARTING LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY TUESDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL, GALE FORCE GUSTS,
AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY AND BEGIN TO EASE BY MIDWEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTERLY LARGE, STEEP MID PERIOD SWELL
OF AROUND 15 TO 18 FT AT 14 SECONDS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ102-105-106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ104.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ107-
108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ110-111-114-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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