991
FXUS66 KEKA 130819
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
119 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
FOR HUMBOLDT, WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OVER DEL NORTE. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING WILL BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TOWARDS DEL NORTE COUNTY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND PERHAPS BRING LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY,
LOOKING AT NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.1 INCHES
ACCUMULATION (5PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO 5PM SATURDAY 3/14): DEL NORTE
COUNTY HAS ABOUT AN 85 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE; NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY HAS ABOUT A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE WITH HIGHER CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT CAPE MENDOCINO AND NORTH. MORE RECENT
NBM RUNS EVEN HAVE ABOUT A 25 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCHES
OR MORE FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD
(5PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO 5PM SATURDAY 3/14).
GENERALLY, A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE WARMEST VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED
MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS
HAS SHIFTED FLOW ONSHORE BRINGING SOME STRATUS TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AND UP THE NEAR COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE MVFR, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. THIS
MORNING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND BECOME VFR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A
WEAK FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
FIRST TO CRESCENT CITY AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH TO ACV. THE TRICKY
PART OF THIS IS THE TIMING. THE HREF IS SHOWING A 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF CIGS BELOW 3000 FEET BY 22Z AT KCEC, BUT NOT UNTIL 4
TO 6 HOURS LATER AT KACV. CONFIDENCE GROWS OVERNIGHT THAT CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH TO THE
MENDOCINO COAST AS WELL. AREAS FARTHER INLAND, INCLUDING KUKI, ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MKK
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS
IMPACTING THE AREA. NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL AREAS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THESE ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THIS IS
GENERATING SOME 4 TO 6 FOOT WIND DRIVEN WAVES. CURRENTLY THERE IS
ALSO A NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET AT 11 SECONDS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY A FINAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BY THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AGAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS. CURRENT MODELS ARE PUTTING THIS WIND INCREASE AT SOME POINT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE FURTHER
REFINED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECASTS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN START
TO DIMINISH AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT ANY GALES LOOK TO BE
ISOLATED TO DOWNWIND OF THE CAPES, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
AS WELL.
MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KT, BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 20 SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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