247
FXUS66 KEKA 042117
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
117 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY RETURNS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE JUST SHORT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, EVEN
COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE UPPER 60S OR EVEN LOW 70S. KNEELAND, WITH
SUSTAINED OFFSHORE FLOW, COULD REACH 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHILLY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR THURSDAY WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.
AGREEMENT IS GROWING ON THE RIDGING PATTERN ENDING FRIDAY AND DEEP,
ELONGATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MODERATED TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER ARE THE MAIN
IMPACTS, AT FIRST, FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. RAIN ARRIVES
SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MINOR, BUT PRECIPITATION RATES
COULD BRIEFLY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. NBM IS SHOWING AROUND A
30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE HAVE
OVER AN 70% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH, AND AROUND A 30% PROBABILITY FOR 2
INCHES. THERE IS STILL AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE THAT SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE SEES NO PRECIPITATION. LOW END PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES IN DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, AND
TRINITY COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A TENTH SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
HIGH END AMOUNTS AROUND AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS DO NOT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL, WITH ONLY A 10 TO 20% CHANCE
FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH. THOUGH THERE ARE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
6,000 FT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH COULD DROP TO 3,000 TO 4,000 FT
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST PASSES ON HIGHWAY
3 AND HIGHWAY 36.
UNCERTAINTY GROWS GOING INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, WHILE OTHERS ARE
SHOWING CONTINUED PULSES OF PRECIPITATION. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS
DEEP TROUGHING WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND IF THERE IS
MORE PRECIPITATION, MORE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW. THE COLDER SCENARIOS
HAVE SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3,000 FT. UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH WITH
LOW END PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0 AND HIGH END AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES. STAY TUNED. JB
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE WEST COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN KEEPING MARINE STRATUS OUT OF COASTAL
TERMINALS. PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM UKI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. /RPA
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND THE SEA STATE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY MID-PERIOD SWELLS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
LOCKED OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT LARGER SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET AT
15 TO 16 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. /RPA
BEACH HAZARDS
A LARGE SWELL IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
SWELL COULD PEAK AT NEAR 12 FEET AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREAKERS OF 14 TO 17 FEET. SWELLS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE ARE WELL BELOW OUR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA;
HOWEVER THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNEAKER WAVE RISK CALCULATOR IS
INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AS THESE SWELLS IMPACT
THE COAST FRIDAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD STAY FAR BACK FROM THE SURF ON
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SWELLS IMPACT THE
COAST.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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