073
FXUS66 KEKA 192349
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
349 PM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL, HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG TO VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NEPAC BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND PREVIOUS
TROUGHINESS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED
RIDGES. GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER THE MORE PROMINENT EXPOSED RIDGES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. COLD
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS LOW
AS 27 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WHILE LOWS
BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW-NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, WHILE
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR; EXCEPT FOR
TRINITY COUNTY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S INTO LOW 40S.
MORE WETTER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG IVT PLUME IMPACTS THE AREA
WITH HEAVY RAIN, HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS. THE
WPC 500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLE OVER THE NEPAC,
WHILE THE RIDGE RISES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMPACT SURFACE LOW SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE OREGON COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A LONG-DURATION LOW LEVEL
JET AT 925MB FROM 65 TO 75 KTS DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT WILL
BE MORE UNSTABLE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MOST
LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY NEAR OR ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND PEAK UP SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IMPACTING
FIRST DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS AN INCREASING CHANCE (55-80%) FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH
ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. FOR HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A 60-85% CHANCE FOR MAX WING GUSTS EXCEEDING
70 MPH IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) HIGHLIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE 80TH- 95TH PERCENTILE ABOVE NORMAL WIND GUSTS,
SPECIFICALLY FOR DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES, WHILE IN THE
50TH-80TH PERCENTILE FOR MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATION DUE TO HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE NOW SHOWING
AN INCREASING PROBABILITIES (50-70% CHANCE) OF A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (IVT'S GREATER THAN 500 KG/M/S) IMPACTING THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL UNCERTAINTIES
ON EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAKS IN RAIN WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE
LEVEL OF IMPACTS. 72 HR NBM PROBABILITY INDICATES THERE IS A
50-80% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ACROSS DEL
NORTE, HUMBOLDT, WESTERN TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 20-35% CHANCE FOR AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES.
STAY TUNED!/ZVS
AVIATION
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING
FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME, MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BUILT ACROSS THE AREA,
GENERATING GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS BLOWING UP TO 25 KTS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY CALM INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RECENT RAIN AND CLEARER
SKIES MAY PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW AND ISOLATED FOG IN PROTECTED
VALLEYS, BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
ANY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
/JHW
MARINE
SEAS BRIEFLY CALMED THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID PERIOD SWELL
QUICKLY DECAYED. RELATIVE CALM, HOWEVER, WAS VERY SHORT LIVED AS
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED CLOSER TO SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY GUSTS HAVE PEAKED AROUND 25 KTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
CLOSER TO GALE FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE
STEEPENED IN RESPONSE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY BETWEEN
11 AND 13 FEET.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECLINE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SHORT PERIOD SEAS DECAYING BACK BELOW 6 FEET MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.
CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
IN ALL WATERS BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BUILD TO STORM
FORCE (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS) FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH SOME MORE ISOLATED STORM
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE INNER WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL GROW AS STEEP AS 19 FEET AT
13 SECONDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STEEP AND DANGEROUS SEA
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVEN AS WINDS GRADUALLY
DECLINE. /JHW
HYDROLOGY
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON RIVERS,
STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) INCLUDED DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT, MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A 55 TO 80% CHANCE FOR
24-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1.5 INCH FROM 10 PM
SATURDAY THROUGH 10 PM SUNDAY, WITH UP TO 90% CHANCE FOR THE
EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THE CHANCE
DIMINISH ON MONDAY, HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR
DAILY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RAPID RISE OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT, THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND CURRENTLY HAS AROUND A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MANY OTHER MAIN STEM RIVERS TO REACH OR
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK SUCH AS EEL RIVER AT
FERNBRIDGE, MAD RIVER AT ARCATA, AND NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO.
THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE REST OF THE
MAIN STEM RIVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AS OF
YET./ ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR CAZ101>115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page