492  
FXUS66 KEKA 052035  
AFDEKA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
135 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
INLAND AREAS ARE SEEING COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND  
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. COASTAL CLOUDS  
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TONIGHT  
WITH MORE DRIZZLE EXPECTED. WET WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL  
WARMING AND DRYING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA  
CONTINUES TO SPIN WELL OFF THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA  
COAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT BRINGING DRIZZLE  
THE COAST, DEEPENING THE MARINE AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THE OREGON COAST. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS  
MOVING ONSHORE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE  
AS WELL AS KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DEEP. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER  
THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IF SO, WHERE  
WILL THEY FORM. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN OFF THE  
COAST. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT START TO  
BE SOME MORE CLEARING AT THE COAST AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS AND  
THE CLOUD LAYER OFFSHORE IS LOOKING MORE FRAGMENTED. INLAND THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN  
TRINITY COUNTY. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN THE MODELED  
REFLECTIVITY AND THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. THIS IS  
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE  
AREA.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN DEEP AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. DRIZZLE  
IS EXPECTED AGAIN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALONG THE WITH THE WEAK INVERSION THERE  
COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CLEARING.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MONDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN  
ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING SOME RAIN  
TO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES  
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE AND THE NBM THUNDER PROBABILITIES HAVE  
DIMINISHED. STILL THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY. IT WILL LIKELY  
DEPEND ON MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE BEFORE THE STORMS. AS THE  
EVENT STARTS TO GET CLOSER WE CAN LOOK MORE AT THE TIMING AND  
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR JUST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY IT  
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 0.75 INCHES IN DEL NORTE COUNTY, 0.4 TO 0.7 IN  
HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY, AND GENERALLY A TENTH TO HALF INCH IN  
LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. AS USUAL THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE  
FARTHER NORTH, HIGHER IN ELEVATION AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN  
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF  
THESE SHOWERS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT  
COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME DEBRIS FLOWS ON THE OLD BURN SCARS.  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN STARTS  
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE PROBABILITY OF OVER A HALF INCH IN  
24 HOURS DROPS BELOW 50 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
ONLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES HAVE  
OVER A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A HALF INCH. SOME OF THE  
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE EVEN SHOWING THIS PERIOD AS MAINLY DRY NOW.  
THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN  
TRINITY COUNTY THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN TOO.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTERS START TO  
DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE  
MODELS SHOW DRYING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KEEP RAIN  
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW QUICKLY  
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP AND THINGS DRY OUT IN AREAS THAT GOT  
RAIN. MKK  
 

 
   
AVIATION...05/18Z TAFS
 
MOSTLY MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ALONG  
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CLOUDS ERODING  
BACK TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWARD  
ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DISRUPT THE COASTAL STRATUS AS  
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN  
CEILINGS SCATTERING/DISSIPATING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR  
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL PUSH BACK THE STRATUS INLAND DURING THE EVENING. A DEEP  
MARINE LAYER WITH A DEPTH UP TO AROUND 3500 FEET ALONG THE NORTH  
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS  
SATURATED LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY  
MONRING. SURFACE WINDS FROM SSW AROUND 5 KTS, BECOMING VERY LIGHT S  
WINDS AND VARIABLE AFTER 05/03Z.  
 
FOR INLAND AREAS: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS  
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING IN KUKI. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR  
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AT UKI AROUND 06/13Z WITH A SLIGHTLY  
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. ANY LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT  
UKI WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 16Z. /ZVS  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES, WITH LOCALIZE  
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LEEWARD OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS  
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. SMALL, MID- PERIOD NW AND SW SWELLS  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY CALM  
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
 
MONDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE (15-25%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONT ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHTNING  
STRIKES AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST  
STORMS. /ZVS  
 

 
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...  
NONE.  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...  
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN  
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.  
 
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