708
FXUS66 KEKA 281951
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1251 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL CLOUD COVER THAT HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT IN THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS WEAKENED AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ALLOWING THE COASTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TO DECREASE
TODAY. THIS DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE INTERIOR RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.
COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A SHOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES, BUT OTHERWISE
THE MODEL TREND IS FOR LESS RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN WHAT HAD
BEEN EXPECTED ONLY A FEW DAYS AGO.
A MORE POTENT TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL PLUMES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT WITH THIS
FRONT INDICATE A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH IVT OVER 250 KG/M/S
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENEFICIAL, BUT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. IN ADDITION, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE NEWEST GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH SNOW
LEVELS NOW FALLING TO AROUND 5500 FEET INSTEAD OF 5000 ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SMALL DIFFERENCE IN ELEVATION WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE FOR THE IMPACTS OVER SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS WHILE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY WHILE SNOW LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET, BUT OVERALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM
SNOW COULD BE MINIMAL. LAST, THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS IS JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE NEAR
COASTAL RIDGELINES BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES. /RPA
AVIATION
LOW FOG AND STRATUS THAT BROUGHT LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAS
QUICKLY ERODED, GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY (50%
CHANCE) TO RETURN AGAIN THIS EVENING TO THE COAST AT LEAST
INCONSISTENTLY, THOUGH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MAY VERY SLIGHTLY
LIFT CEILINGS AND VARIABILITY COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. /JHW
MARINE
NORTH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE BUILT IN
RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS, WITH SOME SIMILAR STEEP SEAS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BY
MONDAY, WIDESPREAD NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL
WATERS. WIDESPREAD, PROPER GALE CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY UNLIKELY
(40% CHANCE) AND MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO THE OUTER WATERS. SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA STATE INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE
SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AND THEN
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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