934
FXUS66 KEKA 270826
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1226 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY TO DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. A COOLING TREND FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, FOR DEL NORTE AND
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. GENERALLY LESS A TENTH IS EXPECTED
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO TAKE AN OVER
LAND TRAJECTORY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF QUESTION
JUST YET. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FRI-SUN.
ONLY ABOUT 20% OF THE CLUSTER MEANS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN,
WHILE 80% SUGGEST DRY WEATHER. REPETITIVE FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS AS THIS TROUGH REINFORCES THE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH MAY BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR BLUSTERY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID WEEK. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A RANGE
OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, HOWEVER THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN
SUGGEST PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER ONLY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
FLEETING PRECIPITATION FOR DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
/ZVS&DUG
AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION AS THE
APPROACHING TROUGH SLINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING INTO THE COAST AS OF 6Z WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST,
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KCEC 10-13Z. MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING TO 5000FT OR SO AT KCEC INTO THE LATE MORNING. IT
LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR KACV AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES BUT THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST. MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE AREAS OF RAIN ISOLATED TO DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH AROUND .03 OR LESS AS THE
TOTAL. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE CYCLONIC ROTATION ARRIVES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KUKI WILL BE
DECOUPLED FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS MOST OF THE ACTION IS ABOVE THE
40N LATITUDE.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO
15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BEFORE STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO,
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. FOR THE WEEKEND, NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY.
A FORERUNNER MID-PERIOD WNW SWELL AROUND 8 TO 12 FEET AT 12 SECONDS
WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. WIND WAVES AROUND 6 TO 9 FEET AT 8
SECONDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. /ZVS
BEACH HAZARDS
A W-NW SWELL AROUND WITH PERIODS FROM 18-22
SECONDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY, RESULTING IN BUILDING SURF ALONG THE BEACHES AND INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL OF SNEAKER WAVES. BREAKING WAVES WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, REACHING 14 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SNEAKER WAVES ARE A
UNIQUE HAZARD, WITH MANY MINUTES BETWEEN WAVES. PAY ATTENTION AND
STAY ABOVE THE HIGH WATER LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO STAY SAFE. IF
THE GROUND IS WET, WAVES HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY. STAY SAFE AND
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ107-
110-112-113-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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