401
FXUS66 KEKA 280908
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
108 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY MILD AFTER AN
ACCUMULATION THAT WENT JUST ABOVE 0.5 INCHES ON THE HIGH END. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY MISS OUR CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SIMILAR SYSTEM LANDING SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOMINATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES WITH A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-50%
CHANCE) PRIMARILY FOR DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT, PARTICULARLY
IN REGIONS OF SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL IT DOES NOT LOOK
TOO WET OR IMPACTFUL WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS
TO PERHAPS (15% CHANCE) FOR A TENTH IN 6 HOURS ACROSS DEL NORTE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HEADS TOWARD THE PAC NW. THERE IS STILL A SOME VARIABILITY WITH
THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND TIMING, HOWEVER SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
DAY WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW 925MB WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT BEEFING UP THE WINDS ABOVE THE
NBM. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR 0.25-0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING 4 AM MON, MOSTLY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOST ZONES. CHANCE FOR MAJOR IMPACTS FROM RAIN OR SNOW
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON-TUE, AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN.
AVIATION...(6Z TAFS)
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LARGELY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LIFTING. INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING
UKI, COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGHER CLOUDS CLEAR. ANY FOG
AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY LIFT AND SCATTER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
WEDNESDAY. JB
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS HAVE QUICKLY EASED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BREEZY WINDS OF 20 KTS OR LESS ARE STILL LIKELY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS LIKELY FOR THE DAY TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE QUICKLY FALLING AS WELL, BUT
WESTERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. THE FIRST MID PERIOD WEST
SWELL BUILDS THIS MORNING AND PEAKS AROUND 9 TO 10 FT AT 11 SECONDS.
THE SECOND, LARGER SWELL ARRIVES TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PEAKS AT
AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AT 15 SECONDS. SEAS PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW
10 FT FRIDAY, BUT AN ADDITIONAL MID PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. NBM IS SHOWING AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
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