140
FXUS66 KEKA 082224
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
224 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
HEAVIER RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RAIN RATES INCREASED BY LATE MORNING AS A FAST
MOVING FRONT SWEPT THROUGH HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE. INITIAL
DOWNFALL ESTIMATES WERE ON PAR AS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ACCUMULATED
NEAR COASTAL DEL NORTE. NORTHERN HUMBOLDT RECEIVED AROUND AN INCH
AND CENTRAL HUMBOLDT0.4 TO 0.9 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING AS
YOU PROCEED SOUTH. RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PLUME GETTING NARROWER AS IT STREAKS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSES WARM AIR TO RISE AND
CONDENSE. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH BY
00-01Z, EARLY EVENING.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MONDAY. LOW
AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR, BUT STUBBORN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY AT BEST INTO MIDWEEK. LOW VALLEY FOG AND
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT CONDITIONS FORM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT, EVEN IN TRINITY COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WEAK PULSE OF MOISTURE AROUND WEDNESDAY. UNLIKE
TODAYS RAIN, THIS PULSE WOULD BE FOCUSED IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS POTENTIAL PULSE IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A
ROUGHLY 30% CHANCE OF NO RAIN AT ALL AROUND WEDNESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
30% SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.5 INCHES. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS WOULD
BE GENERALLY MINIMAL.
DESPITE BEING FURTHER OUT IN TIME, THERE IS HIGHER ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT (AT LEAST 80% OF MODEL MEMBERS) THAT A STRONGER AND MORE
IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS EVENT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT SLIGHTLY FOCUSED
DOWN SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH AT THIS LEAD TIME, BUT LOW
ELEVATION RAIN AMOUNTS CURRENTLY SHOW AS 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH SOME
HIGH ELEVATION AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE
(THOUGH STILL ONLY AROUND 35%) OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PERHAPS MOST IMPACTFUL, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM AROUND NEXT SUNDAY. CURRENT MODELS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE FALLING AT THIS TIME, LIKELY
GENERATING IMPACTFUL SNOW FALL (5+ INCHES) FOR HIGHWAY PASSES IN
TRINITY COUNTY PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2000 FEET. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
UPDATES ON THAT SYSTEM. A WETTER PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL LATE FEBRUARY BASED ON LONG TERM FORECAST MODELS.
AVIATION
FRONTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED WIND SHEAR (WITH LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE), DECREASED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN, AND MVFR, AND
PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTH COAST AROUND 00Z (+/- 1 HR) GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS. KUKI IS FORECAST TO FEEL THIS FRONT MIDDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINSHOWERS CAUSING DECREASED VISIBILITIES. CLEAR
SKIES FORECASTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE A WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN THE WATERS. NORTHERLY
WINDS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS OF
20-25KTS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS DOWNWIND, SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THESE STRONG BREEZES WILL ALSO BE PRODUCING STEEP, SHORT
WIND WAVES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT TO STEEP, SEA STATE.
THE INNER WATERS FORECASTED FOR SLIGHTLY LIGHT WINDS WITH
PROPAGATING WAVES. DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS
AND WAVES, AN ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INNER WATERS AS
OF RIGHT NOW UNTIL FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
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