552
FXUS66 KEKA 072152
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
252 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH BRING MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
* A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
* NO WETTING RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR A SPELL LONGER WITH SHALLOW MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG SHORE.
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE COOLER AND MOIST CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND ALONGSIDE STRONG NORTH WINDS NEAR SHORE. CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. MANY INTERIOR
VALLEYS AGAIN HIT 100 EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MOST LIKELY THURSDAY. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
BUT ESPECIALLY MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ALONG SHORE WITH LOW MARINE FOG
AND CLOUDS WHILE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE INVERSION WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE INBOUND LOW.
BY FRIDAY, WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
WEAKEN HEAT AND BRING GENERALLY MUCH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER ALONG SHORE. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL FURTHER COOL CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70. DESPITE THE FRONT,
ESSENTIALLY NO MODELS SHOW ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH. VERY
LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE WILL BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS
THE MARINE LAYER GETS LIFTED.
AS THE TROUGH DIPS SOUTH, THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY (EFI VALUES OF 0.75) STRONG NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY ENHANCED BY LOW
PRESSURE DETACHING FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVING SOUTH, THOUGH THIS
SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN. NBM SHOWS MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS ALONG SHORE
OF 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE ON COASTAL RIDGES
AND HEADLANDS. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH OVER THE
KING RANGE AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THAT CHANCE IS ONLY 10
TO 20% FOR MORE POPULATED AREAS LIKE CRESCENT CITY AND HUMBOLDT BAY.
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP MARINE AIR SCATTERED OUT ALONG THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURNS SLIGHTLY EASTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
10-14 DAYS), THOUGH MUCH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /JHW/EYS
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
LIFR STRATUS IS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIFTING IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
A CONSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO KEEP ANY IMPROVEMENTS
BRIEF. REGARDLESS, LIFR STRATUS WITH DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY,
STRATUS MAY FINALLY CLEAR MORE SOLIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AROUND
A 70% CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES. INTERIOR AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /JB
MARINE
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND PULL
FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH, SEAS REMAIN STEEP IN
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, THE HAZARD FOR STEEP SEAS IS
STILL LIKELY 40-60 NM OFFSHORE. ALONG WITH THE DECAYING WIND WAVES,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE BE VERY MINOR, SOUTHERLY LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORMS.
NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PUSH CLOSER TO SHORE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THE LEE OF CAPE BLANCO MOVING CLOSE TO SHORE AND BRINGING GALE FORCE
NORTHERLIES TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE TO SHORE THESE GALES
WILL REACH. REGARDLESS, THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INSTEAD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO FRIDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL RISE IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY,
BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS, AS A BROAD TROUGH DIPS
NORTH OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY, THERE AS 80% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 40
KTS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH GALE CONDITIONS IN THE INNER
WATERS. LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. AROUND SUNDAY A LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 5 FEET
AT 22 SECONDS WILL AUGMENT THE SEA STATE. IF SHORT PERIOD SEAS WERE
NOT SO LARGE AND STEEP, SUCH A SWELL WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT
SNEAKER WAVE RISK. /JHW/JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ110>114-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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