963
FXUS66 KEKA 072228
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FOR THE INTERIOR INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SHALLOWING MARINE LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAK IN
GLOOMY CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO, LAKE,
AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
-GLOOMY COASTAL SKIES MORE LIKELY TO SCATTER AND CLEAR ALONGSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON NORTHERLIES
AROUND SUNDAY.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GENTLE ZONAL FLOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY. VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL ARCH OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
INTERIOR. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
80S BY SATURDAY. BUILDING HEAT WILL HELP SHALLOW THE MARINE LAYER
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BOTH INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR NIGHT
TIME FOG BUT ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL BLUE SKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE BLUE
ON THE COAST WITH A 60% CHANCE OF SKIES AT LEAST SCATTERING OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY RESURGE ON SATURDAY. NORTH
WIND WILL INCREASE ALONG SHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. DESPITE A STRONGER MARINE INVERSION, THE WIND MAY HELP MIX
OUT SOME CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY PEAK AROUND NEXT MONDAY.
INTERIOR HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOLIDLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISK WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN LAKE COUNTY DUE TO WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG
SHORE WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE SCATTERED SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, COASTAL TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR 60.
MOST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW FORMING UP ALONG SHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DROP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. THIS LOW COULD BRING A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW IT STAYING TOO DRY AND
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH RISK. MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK IS NOW MORE THAN 10% AT THE MOMENT IN MOST MODELS.
/JHW
AVIATION
STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING BACK TO THE COAST AND LIFTING WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING, ALTHOUGH STRATUS NEAR-COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE LIGHT SEA BREEZE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WHILE VFR FOR INTERIOR NW
CALIFORNIA. THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY, A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL
DEVELOP AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACHES FROM OFFSHORE. EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR CEILING FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DESTABILIZE THE MARINE LAYER AND CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AND REACH UKI DURING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
TO BRING IT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AT
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS./ZVS
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS. LOW NW WAVES AROUND 3 AND 5 FEET AT 8 AND 12 SECONDS
RESPECTIVELY. THE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO START TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH THE
MODERATE BREEZES.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA
WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. FARTHER SOUTH
NORTHERLY WINDS STARTS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH WITH 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THE SHORT
PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY EASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK; HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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