954
FXUS66 KEKA 012256
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
256 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRYING AND STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
A DRY, COLD AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A QUICK, PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT EXITING
TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD, WITH A MAJOR
500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY SETTING UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, RESULTING
IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRY AND STABLE WEATHER ALONG WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL ALLOW DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA. MODERATE BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE CHILLY SIDE WITH FREEZING
MINIMUMS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR VALLEYS IN TRINITY AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW (EASTERLY WINDS), ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, WILL
KEEP THE AIR VERY DRY AND REINFORCE THE WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70'S IN THE
INTERIOR NEXT WEEK. SOUTH-FACING EXPOSURES AND HIGHER TERRAIN
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70'S, WHILE VALLEYS TRAPPED
UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG MAY NOT
WARM UP EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S, ESPECIALLY IN TRINITY AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR HUMBOLDT. EVEN THE COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM UP TO MID 60S TO LOW 70'S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCES ARE SUGGESTING
A BREAK- THROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES OR UNDERCUTTING OF THE BLOCKING
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
ON SATURDAY, AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 25-50% CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
RETURN AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY, AND A 40-70% CHANCE RAIN WILL
RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. STAND BY FOR MORE DETAILS AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS. /ZVS
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, CLEARER SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD BRING
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOW CLOUDS COULD
ALSO AFFECT KUKI TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AS WELL. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CLEARING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TOMORROW MORNING FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
MARINE
COMBINED SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND 10 FEET AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
BUILDS IN. THIS SWELL WILL BRING STEEP SEAS FROM 10 TO ALMOST 13
FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING AROUND MIDWEEK. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A
24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALMER SEAS AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT ANOTHER SET OF
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO STEEPEN THE SEAS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND,
HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN GENTLE.
BEACH HAZARDS
A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH TODAY WITH HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY BUILDING BETWEEN 10 AND 13
FEET WITH PERIODS NEAR 16 SECONDS. THIS SWELL MAY BE TOO LARGE FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, THOUGH IT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACHGOERS.
BREAKERS UP TO 16 FEET FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES ARE
FORECAST BASED ON AVERAGE BEACH SLOPE PROFILES. BEACHGOERS VENTURING
NEAR OR IN THE SURF ZONE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
REMAIN VIGILANT. AVOID ROCKS, JETTIES AND STEEP BEACHES.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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