064
FXUS66 KEKA 080711
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1211 AM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FOR THE INTERIOR INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SHALLOWING MARINE LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAK IN
GLOOMY CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES...
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO, LAKE,
AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
-GLOOMY COASTAL SKIES MORE LIKELY TO SCATTER AND CLEAR ALONGSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON NORTHERLIES
AROUND SUNDAY.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK RIDGING WILL ARCH OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE INTERIOR. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 80S BY SATURDAY. BUILDING HEAT WILL HELP SHALLOW THE MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BOTH INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NIGHT TIME FOG BUT ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL
BLUE SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE BLUE ON THE COAST WITH A 60% CHANCE OF SKIES AT LEAST
SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY RESURGE
ON SATURDAY. NORTH WIND WILL INCREASE ALONG SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. DESPITE A STRONGER MARINE
INVERSION, THE WIND MAY HELP MIX OUT SOME CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY PEAK AROUND NEXT MONDAY.
INTERIOR HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOLIDLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISK WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN LAKE COUNTY DUE TO WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG
SHORE WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE SCATTERED SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, COASTAL TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR
60.
MOST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW FORMING UP ALONG SHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DROP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. THIS LOW COULD BRING A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW IT STAYING TOO DRY AND
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH RISK. MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK IS NOW MORE THAN 10% AT THE MOMENT IN MOST MODELS.
/JHW
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH N CA FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENED IN RESPONSE, BRINGING WIDER COVERAGE OF IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE. HREF SHOWS HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THE STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW. AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY TO ACV MAY SEE
LONGER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOISTURE POOLING FROM
LIGHTER NW WINDS. PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILING DROP TO 30% AFTER
21Z FOR ACV AND 10% AT CEC AFTER 20Z. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO
INVADE THE UKI VALLEY AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN, TAKING CEILINGS
BELOW 1700 FT AGL. IMPROVEMENT AT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD OCCUR
QUICKER, THROUGH 16-17Z. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH 15-25 KT GUSTS LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH WITH 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD THE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY EASE EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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