334
FXUS66 KEKA 090733
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1233 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FOR THE INTERIOR INTO THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR FOG.
KEY MESSAGES...
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MONDAY WITH MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. THIS HAS ENABLED SLIGHT WARMING INT HE INTERIOR WITH SOME
HIGHS BREAKING ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE, A STILL STRONG BUT SHALLOWING
AND DRYING MARINE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED FOR GRADUALLY CLEARER
SCATTERING SKIES ALONG THE COAST, WITH HUMBOLDT BAY CURRENTLY THE
LAST REFUGE OF CLOUDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SHELTERED AREAS OF
HUMBOLDT BAY, WITH MORE RELIABLE DAY TIME CLEARING ELSEWHERE.
MODERATE NORTH WIND WILL PUSH ON TO SHORE EACH AFTERNOON THIS EVENING
AND MAY HELP MIX SOME LOW CLOUDS AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY PEAK AROUND NEXT
MONDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SOLIDLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN LAKE COUNTY DUE TO WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG SHORE
WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR MORE SCATTERED SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, COASTAL TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE MID
60S ON MONDAY.
MOST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW FORMING UP ALONG SHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DROP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. THIS LOW COULD BRING A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW IT STAYING TOO DRY AND
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH RISK. MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK IS NO MORE THAN 10% AT THE MOMENT IN MOST MODELS.
/JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAFS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LIFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG
(10-20%). SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CEC. THOUGH CEILINGS
ARE SHALLOW, LATEST GUIDANCE RESOLVES A SOUTHERLY RETURN EDDY TO
FORM AND REMAIN PRESENT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS STRATUS TO REMAIN LOCKED TO THE COAST LONGER THAN MODELED.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LIFTING CAN OCCUR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROBABILITIES FOR IFR LEVELS TO REMAIN AT ACV
ONLY LOWER TO 40% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST TEMPO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT SAID,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH MAY INCLUDE SOME FULL SCATTERING. IF
SCATTERING DOES OCCUR, THE STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR LEVELS.
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH UKI, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR
WITH LIGHT WINDS THAT OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM THE NW UP TO 18KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE NEAR GALE TO GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN IN ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, BUT THE
STEEP SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER AN EXTENDED HIATUS IN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY LAST
INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH NO SIZABLE SWELLS OF INTEREST.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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