266
FXUS66 KEKA 150945
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
245 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
* BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MENDOCINO,
LAKE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. LOCAL AREAS OF LOW RH ELEVATE FIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE COUNTY.
* POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS IN THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SOME OF THE AREAS FARTHEST INLAND SUCH
AS LAKE AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY WILL NOT SEE MUCH COOLING.
THIS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW, LIKELY KEEPING QUITE A FEW COASTAL
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT THE INVERSION MAY BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON
AT THE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS
SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY IN MENDOCINO, LAKE, AND EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTIES. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS. MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND NEAR 90 FARTHER INLAND. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE PERSISTENT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PUSH IT'S WAY
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE LOW BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AND LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST IN TRINITY COUNTY, WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
CLOSE TO 100 IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTY WILL REMAIN COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S. HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR LEVEL IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OR LEAST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALSO BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. MKK
AVIATION
STRATUS IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COASTS THIS MORNING. SOME ALSO MAY DEVELOP ON THE MENDOCINO LATER
EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SOME. THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE INVERSION
AND MAY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CLEARING AT THE COAST, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT. TONIGHT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN, ALTHOUGH IT MAY REMAIN A BIT HIGHER CEILINGS
IFR OR CLOSE TO THAT. MKK
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WAVES WILL MAINLY BE WIND DRIVEN, BUT THERE ARE
A COUPLE SMALL SWELLS. ONE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 2
FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THE SECOND SMALL SWELL IS EXPECTED TO START TO
BUILD IN THIS MORNING AT AROUND 2 FEET AT 14 SECONDS.
THE STRONGER WINDS PUSHING FARTHER OFF THE COAST HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NOW IT'S LOOKING SATURDAY WILL BE THE WHEN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS START TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW 10 KT.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MKK
FIRE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN MENDOCINO, LAKE, AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTIES.
AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND TEENS IN LAKE COUNTY AND TRINITY
COUNTY. THESE WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER. THE
UPSIDE IS THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND RH WILL
GRADUALLY RISE. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THURSDAY BUT HIGHER
AFTERNOON RHS ARE EXPECTED WITH 20S AND 30S IN MENDOCINO, 20S IN
LAKE COUNTY, AND TEENS TO 20S TO EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. WINDS
EASE FRIDAY, BUT AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S. /JB/MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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