875
FXUS66 KEKA 052300
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 24 WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A CLOUDY TRANSITIONAL PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING, JUST BEFORE LIGHT
RAIN SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATE CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60'S WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60'S TO LOW
70'S WHICH, WILL LIKELY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS. A CONSIDERABLE
STRATUS AND MID HIGH CLOUD COMBINATION WILL SURGE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD INSULATE ESCAPING RADIATION FROM THE
SURFACE. LOW TEMPS IN TRINITY COUNTY (28-32F)ARE BEING FORECAST IN
PROXIMITY OF RUTH, HAYFORK, AND DOUGLAS CITY/WEAVERVILLE. MENDOCINO
COUNTY; COVELO, AREAS NE OF WILLITS (28-34F). HREF SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE BURN OFF AND RETREAT OF CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY, LINGERING STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE COAST.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY'S CLOUD COVER AND
ARRIVAL OF LIGHT RAIN IS GAINING CONFIDENCE AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE/RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO WANE, FRIDAY. A DEEP, ELONGATED
TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL LEAD TO MORE MODERATED TEMPERATURES
OVER NW CA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A RETURN OF RAIN IS FORECASTED TO
ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MIDDAY. GENERALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MINOR, BUT PRECIPITATION RATES
COULD BRIEFLY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. NBM IS SHOWING AROUND A
40 TO 80% CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE FOCUSED MORE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES. MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES SHOW LESS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
WITH A 30-60% CHANCE OF RAIN OVER 0.5" AND A 10-25% CHANCE THAT
THERE IS NO RAIN AT ALL, ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE COUNTY.
WINDS FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL, WITH
ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH
FOR WIND PRONE AREAS IN LAKE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 6,000 FT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO ~4,000
FT MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST PASSES ON
HIGHWAY 3 AND HIGHWAY 36.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GROWS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, WHILE OTHERS ARE
SHOWING CONTINUED PULSES OF PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, THE FORECAST
IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THIS CHANGE IN WEATHER WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED RAINFALL (WHICH WON'T BE HARD AFTER ALL THIS
DRY WEATHER), AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. JB/DS/EYS
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED. THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW MAY SUPPORT THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT. HREF IS SHOWING AROUND 50%
PROBABILITIES FOR STRATUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY AROUND 6 AM
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS SOME MODELS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
EARLIER, WHILE OTHERS KEEP SKIES CLEAR. SHOULD STRATUS DEVELOP,
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND SCATTER BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. INTERIOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT UKI IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JB
MARINE
A MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL HAS DECAYED BELOW 10 FT,
HOWEVER A LARGER, LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT AROUND 10 TO 12 FT AT 16
SECONDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN
RECENT MODEL RUNS AND NBM IS SHOWING AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO SUNDAY. NORTHERLIES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NBM SHOWING ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS
ADDITIONAL WEST SWELLS BUILD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JB
BEACH HAZARDS
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
ALONG AREAS BEACHES. A LARGE SWELL IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 10-12 FEET
AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS. THESE HIGH ENERGY WAVES WILL BRING A MODERATE
RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL DEADLY
WAVES THAT UNEXPECTEDLY SURGE MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
PREVIOUS WAVES, OVERTAKING UNAWARE BEACHGOERS. REMEMBER TO NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN, AND TO AVOID STEEP BEACHES, JETTIES,
OUTCROPPINGS, AND ROCKS DURING THESE EVENTS./ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page