982
FXUS66 KEKA 020750
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1250 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AN EARLY SEASON STORM IS ON TRACK TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, SLICK ROADS, AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR INTERIOR FROST.
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF IT
WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TRINITY COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY SOME AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
A DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG FOR AN EARLY SEASON
STORM, WITH 44 TO 55 KTS DOWN TO 925 MB (AROUND 2000 FT). WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT FOR
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES FOR GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR INTERIOR RIDGES OF DEL NORTE.
DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
AND A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT MIXING NEAR THE
COAST AND IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS A RESULT, THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATION DEPENDENT, MAINLY ABOVE 1000 TO 1500
FT, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY UNDERPERFORMING. NBM STILL HOLDS
MODERATE CHANCES (40 TO 55%) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF (UP TO 60%) FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ALONG THE DEL NORTE
COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER WITH THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE STORM SYSTEM. RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY, UP TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR FOR SELECT RIDGES. THE KING
RANGE AND RIDGES OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE, WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION, HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (50 TO 70%) OF
SEEING OVER 2.5 INCHES. A BROAD AREA OF NORTHERN CA WILL SEE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAIN.
AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON, A FEW EARLY-
SEASON HAZARDS ARE WORTH NOTING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BRING
DOWN WEAKENED LIMBS AND BRANCHES AT A MORE THAN TYPICAL RATE,
PARTICULARLY THOSE STRESSED DURING THE DRY SUMMER MONTHS.
ADDITIONALLY, ACCUMULATED OIL AND OTHER ROADWAY RESIDUE WILL RESULT
IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AS RAIN INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
A MUCH COLDER AND UNSTABLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN DIVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, OVERNIGHT INTERIOR FROST, AND ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL.
AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
A STRONG EARLY SEASON STORM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST FOR TERMINALS AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AND NEAR COASTAL RIDGES OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS
LIKELY. ALSO, PERIOD OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
AN EARLY SEASON, STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS TODAY, BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING EARLY
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SUSTAINED GALE STRENGTH WINDS TO 34 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY EASE TONIGHT. A MID PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL THEN FILL IN THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY CREATING
ADVISORY LEVEL 10 FT SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINFALL AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE STARTING THIS MORNING
WITH THE LOW, AND WILL BECOME STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR THE RIDGES FROM CAPE MENDOCINO AND
NORTHWARD, WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE INTERIOR DEL NORTE RIDGES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COOLER.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ101-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ104>106.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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