654
FXUS66 KEKA 182333
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
333 PM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY WET SNOW, RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG WIND.
KEY MESSAGES:
* ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
* MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ON HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 3, 36
AND 101 THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
* A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH BELOW-NORMAL DIURNAL AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
* HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN DEL NORTE,
HUMBOLDT, MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 1,500-2,500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT DROPS
DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NW. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 1,000 TO 2,000 FEET OVER THE AREA, WITH LEVELS AS LOW AS
500-1,000FT FOR INTERIOR DEL NORTE, TRINITY, AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
INTERIOR COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, A WARM AIR MASS WILL SLIGHTLY RAISE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 2,000-3,000 FEET AT MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST WET SNOW RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2,000 FEET IN DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES; LIGHTER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1,000 FEET. MEANWHILE,
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500
FEET IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE ON HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 3, 36 AND 101 THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH CAN CREATE SLIPPERY "ICE RINK" CONDITIONS ON THE
ROADS IN A MATTER OF SECONDS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL BE VERY COLD, YET HOW MUCH THIS IS FELT AT SURFACE
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CLOUD COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP WARMER THAN EXPECTED IF THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD CLOSED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WPC 500 MB CLUSTER
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE
THE RIDGE RISES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL, HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITIES (90-100%
CHANCE) OF AT A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (IVT'S GREATER THAN 250
KG/M/S), HOWEVER THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE (35-60% CHANCE)
FOR OVER 500 KG/M/S. WHILE THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE QUICK IMPULSES THAT MAY OVER WHELM
THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING
OF THE BREAKS IN RAIN WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE LEVEL OF
IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN NBM 24 HOUR MAX GUST
SHOWS AROUND 40 TO 55 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATION WIND GUSTS ARE SHOWING OVER 70 MPH. STAY TUNED! /ZVS
AVIATION
SHOWERY CONDITIONS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
COASTAL TERMINALS, FOR THE MOST PART, ARE MVFR TO VFR WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. WHERE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE MOVING
OVERHEAD, SUCH AS KUKI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR. RAIN AND SNOW WILL PICK BACK UP THIS EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
SMALL HAIL PRODUCING SHOWERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL GENERALLY TURN
NORTHERLY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MARINE
A LARGE, STEEP, NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED EARLIER TODAY, BUT
WILL PERSIST AND DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE ABOUT 12 TO 15 FT
AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEST WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC GALE FORCE N WIND GUSTS FOR MOSTLY THE
OUTER WATERS ON THU. GALES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN ON FRI BEFORE A SERIES OF POWERFUL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR GALE OR STORM
FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON RIVERS,
STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) INCLUDED DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT, MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY. THERE IS A 55 TO 80% CHANCE FOR 24-HR
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH FROM 4 PM SUNDAY
THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY, WITH UP TO 95% CHANCE FOR THE EXPOSED RIDGES
IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS A 25-50%
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. A RAPID RISE OF THE
MAIN STEM RIVER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE RUSSIAN
RIVER AT HOPLAND CURRENTLY HAS AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING. THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED ACTION/MONITOR STAGE. THESE WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE REST OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED FLOOD STAGE./ ZVS
-ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ101-
103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ102-
105>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ104-110-
111-114-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ455-470-
475.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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