525
FXUS66 KEKA 162209
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
309 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL BACK MIDWEEK
WITH ONLY MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND FRIDAY IN THE LOW 80S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES EASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
HEATRISK
- SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS.
- A LIFTING BUT PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER FORMING ALONG SHORE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING HEATWAVE
PEAKED FOR ONE FINALE TIME TODAY WITH MANY INTERIOR HIGHS STILL IN
THE MID-90S AND MOSTLY MODERATE HEATRISK. FOR THE COAST, A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING MARINE INVERSION COMBINED WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND HELP
CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS MOST LIKELY TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL HELP
GENERATE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PULL IN MORE MARINE INFLUENCE,
HELPING TO DROP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND CREATING
A MORE LIFTED MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH A MOISTURE SURGE UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, THERE IS A CHANCE
(10-20%) OF ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TRINITY
AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING INTO THE
WEEKEND. /JHW
AVIATION
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BROUGHT LIFR CONDITIONS EARLIER
IN THE DAY BUT A WEAKENED MARINE INVERSION AND STRONGER WIND ON
SHORE HAS HELPED CLEAR TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A WEAKER, BUT
STILL LIFR, MARINE LAYER WILL MOST LIKELY (60%) REFORM OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN PROTECTED AREAS ALONG SHORE SUCH AS
HUMBOLDT BAY. CLEARING WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND A LIFTING MARINE LAYER. /JHW
&
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST CONTRASTING WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH HAS HELPED GENERATE STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS INT HE
OUTER WATERS TODAY. SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY STEEPENED IN
RESPONSE. IN CONTRAST, WIND SHAVE REMAIN MUCH MORE GENTLE NEAR
SHORE, THOUGH WAVE ENERGY EMANATING IN FROM THE OUTER WATERS HAS
STILL HELPED CREATE MODERATELY STEEP SEAS UP TO 10 FEET IN THE INNER
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS
PUSH FURTHER AWAY FROM SHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST
TIDE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. HIGH TIDES HAVE BEEN PEAKING
AROUND 9 FEET. HIGH TIDES WILL CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW- LYING ROADS NEAR ARCATA
BOTTOMS. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
THE CURRENT HEATWAVE HAS HELPED RAPIDLY DRY FUELS,
PUSHING ERC VALUES CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO EASE MIDWEEK (HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE 80S AND RH ABOVE
25 PERCENT) THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEAT ON FUELS WILL REMAIN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED GENTLE TERRAIN WINDS WILL LIMIT RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
THE LARGEST CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND WEAKNESS OF
THE GENERAL MOISTURE PULSE. THE GREATEST CHANCES (10-20%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. THOUGH STORMS WILL BE WEAK AND ISOLATED, IGNITIONS ARE
LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT FUEL STATUS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ102-105-
108-111-114-116-117.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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