624
FXUS66 KEKA 091850
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1150 AM PDT THU APR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY. COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER ARRIVES SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDER MAY BE HEARD EVEN FROM THE HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COASTS! FOR THE INTERIOR, THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HIGH CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE. ORGANIZED STORMS COULD SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL (QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER IN DIAMETER) AND STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. WEAK ROTATION MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS, MEANING THE RISK FOR A FUNNEL CLOUD OR WEAK
TORNADO IS NONZERO(!), BUT STILL VERY LOW. THESE STRONG STORMS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ON TOP OF THE WIND, HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. SHOULD
TRAINING SHOWERS DEVELOP, LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL LOCALIZED OVER
THE SAME AREA, FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP. LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-
2+" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THESE TRAINING CELLS. OUTSIDE
THESE AREAS, 0.10-0.75" IS EXPECTED.
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MENDOCINO OR SONOMA COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH
THE MOST ACTIVITY FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME COASTAL THUNDER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TODAY. STORMS ARE LOOKING A
LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY, BUT STILL FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IN
LOCALIZED AREAS WITH RAIN RATES OF OVER 0.5" AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING SHOWERS.
WET AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS AN UPSTREAM AND MUCH
COLDER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW COMES BARRELING DOWN FROM THE NW AND
KICKS/ABSORBS THE FIRST LOW. MOST ALL THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
WETTER FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL INCLUDE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND THROUGH LAKE COUNTY. NBM
CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS ARE HIGH FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION (60-80%). CHANCES FOR OVER 2 INCHES ARE ALSO HIGH IN
THE KING RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND SOUTHERN TRINITY.
THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE QUITE DYNAMIC REGARDING FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. A CONVECTIVE BAND OR LINE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRECEDING SATURATED COLUMN AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM IS
SHOWING AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR OVER 4" OF SNOW ON HIGHWAY 3 AT
SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS AND A 15% CHANCE ON HIGHWAY 36 AT SOUTH FORK
MOUNTAIN. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD SUPPORT INSTABILITY NEAR THE
COAST, BRINGING SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
NBM HAS LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (25%) FOR SNOW LEVELS BELOW 3500 FT
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DURING AND AND BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR-FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.FROST
ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. LOOKING
TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, ABOUT HALF OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AT LEAST
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH THE OTHER HALF
SHOWING THE CONTINUATION OF THE TROUGHING (WET) PATTERN. STAY
TUNED! JB
AVIATION...(09/18Z TAFS)
ISOLATED SHRA (SHOWERS) CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA AND POSSIBLE VCTS (THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY) ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09/20Z-10/04 FOR ALL TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA, DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA ARE EXPECTED
FOR UKI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL ANY TSRA (THUNDERSTORM). SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER 10/04Z, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHRA AFTER 10/12Z.
/ZVS
MARINE.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE AREA PROMOTING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD SHOULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THERE ARE SOME SMALL SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS, BUT THESE ARE
GENERALLY
FRIDAY, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES IS EXPECT AS THE
CURRENT LOW MOVES CLOSER TO NEARSHORE.
FOR THE WEEKEND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED AND THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONGER WINDS. THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND
LOCATION REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN. /ZVS & MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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