438
FXUS66 KEKA 122159
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
159 PM PST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, CALM, AND FOGGY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WETTER WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND WIND FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY PERSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS, MAINLY IN THE SAME
ONES THAT SAW FOG THIS MORNING. LOCAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
EXPECTED. THIS MAY BE ON THE VALLEY FLOORS OR A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE ON THE HILLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN COOL AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
START NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE NORTH, BUT
WILL EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE A SHORT BREAK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON THE START OF THE RAIN
ON MONDAY. THE NBM STARTS TO BRING RAIN TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTY BY MID MORNING, BUT SOME THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW IT
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SOME POINT IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THIS SO FOR THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER
DELTA, EXPECT IT WILL START ON THE LATER END OF THE RANGE DUE TO
THE DOWNSLOPING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT. MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES, 02.5 TO 0.75
IN SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERN MENDOCINO
COUNTY MAY BE NEAR A HALF INCH, WITH MOST OTHER AREAS BEING LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. WINDS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT ROUND IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF WILLITS. AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO A SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. THE GFS IS
BRIEFLY SHOWING GUSTS TO 50 KT AT 850 MB OVER COASTAL HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTS TO OF 50 TO
60 MPH TO THE RIDGES IN THIS AREA, BUT THIS MAY NOT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE LIGHTER.
WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN.
POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, BUT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY THE ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING MORE RAIN
TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER, BUT SNOW LEVELS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER 5,000 FEET. MKK
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT KACV THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIP IN VISIBILITY BROUGHT VFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR (1 1/4 STATUTE MILES) WITH HAZE AND MIST. A TEMPO LASTING
UNTIL 23Z SHOULD SIGNAL THE THREAT/POSSIBILITY OF THE OCCURRENCE.
KCEC HAS FAIRED BETTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR AND NORTHERLIES
JUST UNDER 10KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY BY 03-04Z AT
KCEC AND EVENTUALLY PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR KACV ARE
TO BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LIFTED CEILINGS VIA DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER. KUKI WILL HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS LIKELY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE CWA. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST OF THE AREA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BUOY REPORTS NEAR PT. ST. GEORGE
REPORTING GUSTS 10-12KTS BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS
THE FETCH AREA MOVES AWAY FROM SHORE TONIGHT IN LIEU OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WILL BE THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTS BUILDING MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO 30-33KTS. A WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 5-7FT AT 12-13
SECONDS WILL START TO DECAY SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS IT GETS DISPLACED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND ITS BOUNDARY WINDS. /EYS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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