763
FXUS66 KEKA 252207
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
207 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER RELATIVE
TO LAST NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON
THANKSGIVING FOR DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT.
DISCUSSION
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, WILL
SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM MID- TO UPPER-50S ALONG COAST AND MID-60S INLAND.
ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY AREAS THAT DO
HAVE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND MAY
HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LOWER, LEADING TO LOWER THAN USUAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY). HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
TOWARD THE PACNW. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, FOR DEL NORTE
AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES, WITH MOST RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS, HOWEVER, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POSITION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH MODELS SHOWING VARIABLE
SOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF, GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND CLUSTERS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAND AND BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED.
THIS SOLUTION TYPICALLY LEADS TO DRY AND COLDER WEATHER, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL INLAND FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. ONLY ~20% OF
THE CLUSTER MEAN ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE
~80% SUGGEST DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. /ZVS
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. KUKI MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING
THE POSSIBILITY VERY WELL. OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ALONG THE COAST, SO IT IS POSSIBLE SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS HAVE BACKED OFF CAUSING CALM WINDS
AND SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, AS WELL, WITH THE SWELL
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND KEEP THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS. FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS KEEPING THE
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THESE NORTHERLY
WINDS FAIRLY STRONG AT AROUND 30 KT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
THE NEXT SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET AT 15 SECONDS.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND THE GLOBAL WAVE WATCH (WAVES FROM GFS WINDS)
HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL ON THESE WAVE HEIGHTS. /MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ106>108-110-111.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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