389
FXUS66 KEKA 092216
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
316 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LAKE COUNTY WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
SYNOPSIS
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATE HEAT RISK. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLEARING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS NEAR THE COAST. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT FOR SOME TIME AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S IN THE COOLER
INTERIOR VALLEYS. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS SUCH AS
HAYFORK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY HIT 35 OR 36 AND SOME FROST
COULD FORM. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO
HELP KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO START WARMING IN EARNEST. MOST INLAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS
AROUND 90. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL SEE THE DRY AIR START TO FILTER IN. THIS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST RH IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN
LAKE COUNTY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL ELEVATE FIRE
DANGER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100. THIS IS EXPECTED REACH
AREAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SUCH AS GASQUET, GARBERVILLE AND
BOONVILLE WITH THESE AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THE HEAT RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LASTING
SEVERAL DAYS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY STARTING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS IT GETS
CLOSER.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THE MARINE LAYER
WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE INFLUENCE STARTING ON FRIDAY IN THE AREAS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE COAST AND EXPANDING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW HOW QUICKLY THIS
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MOVE INLAND. FRIDAY THE HEAT RISK REMAINS
MODERATE IN EASTERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES AND ALSO EXPANDS
INTO EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY STARTING ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY ENDING ON FRIDAY
IN PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. SOME GRADUAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THIS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS
SUCH AS UKIAH, GARBERVILLE AND GASQUET. MKK
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE INTERIOR
AREAS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS OVER THE HILLS TO LINGER AND THESE MAY IMPACT KACV LATER
TONIGHT. KCEC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH BREEZY COASTAL
WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. MKK
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES AROUND 7 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. THIS IS ALSO COMBINING WITH
A 22 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT IS AROUND 3 FEET. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALES
LOOK ON TRACK TO START IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY MIDDAY AND
GRADUALLY EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST FARTHER NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT GALES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS SO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS. BY THIS POINT THE WAVES
WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SEAS. THE ONLY OTHER
WAVE THAT MAY BE NOTICEABLE WOULD BE SOME SOUTHERLY WAVES ON
PROTECTED SOUTH FACING BEACHES FROM THE LONG PERIOD WAVE ENERGY.
THESE NEAR GALE OR GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THEY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY THE
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE WINDS PUSH FARTHER OFF THE COAST
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THE GALES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. NEARLY 10 DEGREES OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OVER TODAY WITH NEARLY THAT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND
THIS WILL LOWER RH EACH DAY. THE RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE POOR
RH RECOVERIES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE YOLLA BOLLA'S AND DOWN INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. FUELS ARE LIKELY STILL MARGINAL, BUT WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH AND RH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
THIS IS SOLIDLY INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS IN MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS, BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON SO HAVE ENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE MORNING. THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED LONGER.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ113-114-118>120.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR CAZ419-420.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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