249
FXUS66 KEKA 081949
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1249 PM PDT WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING, MORE RAIN, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE
IN ALOFT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE CAP TO BREAK, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THESE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN
TRINITY COUNTY. SOUNDINGS SHOW AN "INVERTED V" SHAPE, WITH DRY LOW-
LEVELS AND MOIST UPPER-LEVELS. THIS SIGNATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40
MPH. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THURSDAY, THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER CHANCES ALSO MOVE
WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, AND PERHAPS THE COAST COULD EVEN
SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, AS WELL. HIGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF
OVER 800 J/KG, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO NEARLY SEVERE. GUSTY
WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. SOME MINOR ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR, WITH THE STORMS SHIFTING
FURTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE MINOR WITH
MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, AND 1-2 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS IN TRINITY COUNTY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY IS LIKELY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA. THE POSITION OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY VARIABLE, AND
RAIN TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE TRACK
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OR HIGHER FOR OVER
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. CHANCES
FOR OVER 2 INCHES ARE HIGH IN THE KING RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
DEL NORTE AND SOUTHERN TRINITY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM IS SHOWING AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR
OVER 4" OF SNOW ON HIGHWAY 3 AT SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS AND A 25% CHANCE
ON HIGHWAY 36 AT SOUTH FORK MOUNTAIN. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST, BRINGING SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. IF THESE COLDER UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO
DEVELOP, SNOW LEVELS MAY BE EVEN LOWER - PERHAPS AS LOW AS
2000-2500 FT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DURING AND AND BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR-FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. STAY TUNED TO
OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES,
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. JB
AVIATION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE VFR REMAINS MIDDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED TO
FORM AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS INCREASES THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN VFR/MVFR WITH VERY
SLIGHT CHANGE OF IFR DEVELOPING AROUND 12-15Z (30% PROBABILITY). IF
RAINSHOWERS TO FLOW OVER TERMINALS, DEGRADED VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS FOR
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR TRINITY, HUMBOLDT, AND DEL NORTE CO. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP TODAY AND THURSDAY
SEEMS TO BE SPORADIC, GUSTY WINDS TRAVELLING THROUGH RIVER VALLEYS.
UNTIL THEN HOWEVER, VFR REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT N-NW
WINDS. DS
MARINE
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL ARRIVE TO
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SWELL FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE LOW, VARIABLE WINDS COULD CAUSE SHORT PERIOD SEAS. THESE
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM (<=10KTS)
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP OFF THE
COAST OF SAN FRANCISCO. COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOWEVER, A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARRIVES AND WILL BE FARTHER
NORTH. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS, YET THE
NAM12KM MODEL SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TO BREEZY TO
POTENTIALLY SUB-GALE FORCE. WHILE THIS SPEED MAX IS IN THE FORECAST
NOW, A CHANGE IN THE CENTER OF THE 2ND SYSTEM COULD DRASTICALLY
INCREASE OR DECREASE ITS IMPACTS HERE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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