347
FXUS66 KHNX 170625
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1125 PM PDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES AND DESERT FLOOR.
3. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS EXISTS BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK IN EASTERN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASED
WINDS.
4. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AS SEEN ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. 24
HOUR TEMPERATURES CHANGE HAS SEEN A DROP ON AFTERNOON READING BY
AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS IS SEEING SPEEDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS EVENING WITH
MAX GUSTS REACHING 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
AROUND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 85 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL HIT 70-90 PERCENT SOUTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY AND 50-70 PERCENT AROUND MERCED COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ON SATURDAY AND APPROACH 90
DEGREES NEAR BAKERSFIELD ON SUNDAY AS POE RISES SLIGHTLY.
AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL LOWER POE OF 85 DEGREES
DROPS TO 30-40 PERCENT BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
FURTHER COOLING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS BEING MOVED MORE INTO MONDAY AND
REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY IN THE DAY. PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OF ACCUMULATING A TENTH OF A INCH
(0.10”) WILL REACH 15-25 PERCENT BETWEEN MID-DAY AND LATE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 25-35 PERCENT BY MONDAY
NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, PROBABILITIES RISE TO ALMOST 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH KERN COUNTY AT THE LOWER END OF THE
PROBABILITY SPECTRUM. AT THAT TIME, WILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENSEMBLE
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS, WILL EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION, THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING ABOVE G35KT ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
18Z FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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