916
FXUS66 KHNX 102042
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
142 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EARLY SEASON HEAT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES RISING TO TRIPLE-DIGIT VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
2. MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY AREAS, WITH A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATERS ARE RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
MOTHER'S DAY 2026 IS ON TRACK FOR TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN OUR AREA, REACHING THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE VALLEY AND DESERT. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE LATEST NBM
RUN AT 13Z SHOWING MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY ACROSS THE CWA
FOR MATCHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR
OUR URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND THERMAL BELT AREAS, WHERE THERE IS A
MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS TO THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
AND HEALTHY INDIVIDUALS WHO DO NOT SEEK COOLING.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, COASTAL RANGES, AND THE LAKE ISABELLA/KERN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES, BRINGING AN
ELEVATED THREAT OF GRASS AND BRUSH FIRES TO MUCH OF THE REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. BECAUSE WATERWAYS ARE STILL RUNNING
COLD ON ACCOUNT OF SNOW MELT, COLD WATER SAFETY IS A MUST AND
IS THE OTHER PRIMARY MESSAGE TO OUR PARTNERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION AS RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND
8-14 DAY PERIODS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS (33-40
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS NOW SHOWN
FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WHILE THE 8-14 DAY OUT LOOK SHOWS A
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WITH ALSO A SLIGHT TILT IN
THE ODDS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING OUT OF SHADE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM RHS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL FALL
BELOW TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RHS WILL
FALL TO OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SIERRA NEVADA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THESE
VALUES UNTIL TUESDAY, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN KERN
COUNTY FALL TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS
FIRES AND BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
COASTAL RANGES, SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DOWNTREND IN 100- AND 1000-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WARMING TREND;
HOWEVER, BOTH PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. UPSLOPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA CAN HELP TO FURTHER DRY FUELS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PORTION
OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY. NEW FIRE STARTS MAY
ALSO SPREAD MORE QUICKLY WITH INCREASED GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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