698
FXUS66 KHNX 150520
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1020 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
2. ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS AND A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITHIN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.
3. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS EXISTS BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK IN EASTERN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASED
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION WITH WEAK
RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE AREA. YET, WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
IN THE SHORT-TERM, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF COOLING LATER IN THE WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AS AN
INSIDE-SLIDER. THEREFORE, WHILE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL
BE MINIMAL, THE DISTURBANCE WILL INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
AND STRONG WINDS. AFTERWARD, RIDGING WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEST
AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE AROUND THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL
SATURDAY. AT WHICH TIME, POE OF 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WILL HIT
80-90 PERCENT SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND 40-60 PERCENT OVER
MERCED COUNTY. THEREFORE, WHILE MERCED WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES,
BAKERSFIELD WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
AFTERWARD, SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL LOWER POE OF 80 DEGREES
BELOW 30 PERCENT BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL START BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OF ACCUMULATING
A TENTH OF A INCH (0.10”) WILL REACH 20-30 PERCENT BY MID-DAY ON
MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 30-40 PERCENT BY MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS, WILL EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE NATURE OF A CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION, THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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