050
FXUS66 KHNX 140155
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
555 PM PST THU NOV 13 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY MORNING TODAY, WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BELOW
8000 FEET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ABOVE 8000 FEET
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
2. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE KERN DESERT AND MOUNTAINS,
THE SOUTH VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.
3. A SECOND, COLDER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 5000
TO 6000 FEET.
DISCUSSION
AN ACTIVE WEEK IS AHEAD FOR THE REGION, WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FEET,
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ABOVE 8000 FEET. A WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, UPGRADED FROM THE PREVIOUS WATCH ISSUED EARLIER THIS
WEEK. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH UP TO 2
FEET IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR
NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS THAT DAY AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS CUT- OFF
MAY BE ABLE TO FUEL DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING,
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WEAK CELLS THAT CAME THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, LEADING TO MORE MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACTING THE KERN COUNTY DESERT
AND MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN-MOST SIERRA NEVADA AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY IN THOSE AREAS, AND A SLIGHT
RISK (AT LEAST 15%) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME REGION ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR KERN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KINGS
AND TULARE COUNTIES.
A SECOND SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AN OPEN TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND PULLING IN COLD
AIR FROM CANADA, LEADING TO A COOLER SYSTEM AND LOWERED SNOW
LEVELS. THESE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO START AT 6000
FEET BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET, MEANING LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. SO FAR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT, BUT THE
PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY EVENING, THOUGH THIS MAY
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST IS REFINED. A THIRD SYSTEM IS BEING
HINTED AT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH PRELIMINARY QPF IS
FAIRLY LIGHT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14, 2025, NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO, KERN, MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER
FRAZIER PARK AREA). BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS AND MERCED
COUNTIES, AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ321-322-332>339.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ317>320-324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ323-326>331.
EW/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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