295
FXUS66 KHNX 170434
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
934 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGS A MAJOR RISK OF FIRE
DANGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
2. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
WEST SIDE HILLS OF THE COASTAL RANGE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
3. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUING IN THE MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES AND WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING DESERT AREAS.
4. LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KERN RIVER VALLEY, LAKE
ISABELLA, AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS
WATER ARE STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY REACHED THE LOWER TO MID
80'S, WHICH IS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY. THE
INSIDE-SLIDER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES. THERE IS
ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SLOPES. WHILE WINDS WILL
SOMEWHAT DECREASE ON MONDAY, THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
WEST SIDE HILLS INTO THE COASTAL RANGES. THUS, THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS THE DESERT
WHERE HUMIDITY IS AT LEAST JUST AS LOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
LOWER TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL VALUES FOR SUNDAY. READINGS
IN THE LOWER 80S WILL OCCUR IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE VALLEY AND DESERT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE THE TRADEOFF MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAKES AND POSE HAZARDS FOR
THOSE ENJOYING RECREATION. ALSO, REMEMBER TO PRACTICE COLD WATER
SAFETY, AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
A WARMING TREND RETURNS MONDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TUESDAY, AND THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY WILL TOUCH 90 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE. HOWEVER, THE
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER FURTHER IN THESE LOCATIONS, AS THE HIGHS
WILL BE RISING BACK TO THE MID 90'S IN THESE AREAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL REMAINS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK
OF LARGE FIRES BEYOND MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR READINGS OF 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE EXISTS FOR THE SJ
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SHOW CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION, WHICH SUGGESTS
MAINLY CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPT, THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
NOW SHOWS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL SUNDAY TO BRING A
MAJOR RISK FOR FIRE DANGER TO THESE LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS VALID THROUGH 11 PM SUN (MOJAVE DESERT) AND 8 PM MON (SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY). LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DESERT
AREAS, AND FOR THE WEST SIDE HILLS AND TEHACHAPI RANGE, THOUGH
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS OVER THE CURRENT
PERIOD. MINRH VALUES ARE FAVORED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ298-299.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ579-580.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ300.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ332.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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