516  
FXUS66 KHNX 211036  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA  
336 AM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER  
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER. A COLD  
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND POSSIBLY WET  
WET WEATHER INTO THE DISTRICT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A BATTLE WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN SUMMER AND FALL  
THIS WEEK. INEVITABLY, AUTUMN WILL WIN THE WAR OF AIR MASSES  
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE  
CORRECT, WETTING RAIN COULD FALL IN AREAS OF THE CWA BY NEXT  
SATURDAY THAT HAVE NOT HAD MEASURABLE RAIN SINCE THE 26TH OF MAY!  
 
IN THE NEAR TERM, THIS LAST WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL LIVE UP TO ITS  
REPUTATION. A BIG WARM UP IS IN THE OFFING DURING THE NEXT TWO  
DAYS. SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE THE WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, LOWER  
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WHILE A TRANSITORY SHORT  
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  
 
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE FIRST  
OFFICIAL DAY OF FALL MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE  
WORK WEEK WILL TREND ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY  
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS A RESULT. THE STORM  
SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY  
NIGHT WILL TRACK AS AN INSIDE SLIDER. AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK, THE STORM COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR  
THE SIERRA CREST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL  
BE CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL GRAVITATE  
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT OVER  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A MAJOR WARM  
UP ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
BACK UP INTO THE 90S BOTH DAYS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, LOWER  
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE HOTTEST  
DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERMOMETER READINGS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE  
CENTURY MARK IN THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS OF THE VALLEY AND DESERT  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE PENDULUM WILL SWING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION LATER  
IN THE WEEK AS A COLD GULF OF ALASKA STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF  
THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. THE ECM IS THE MOST  
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM INTO  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE CENTER OF THIS STORM  
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WITH A DRIER LAND TRAJECTORY COMPARED TO THE  
ECM. WHATEVER MODEL YOU LOOK AT, PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY  
GOOD POSSIBILITY IN AT LEAST THE OROGRAPHIC REGIONS OF OUR CWA  
(NAMELY THE SIERRA) TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND IT COULD VERY  
WELL BE THE SEASON'S FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH SIERRA  
(ABOVE 8,000 FEET) SINCE LAST SPRING. WE'RE MORE CONFIDENT OF HOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 70S NEXT  
SATURDAY. A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK  
STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW  
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN ADDITION TO THE SIERRA CREST.  
 
IN SUMMARY, TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM UNSEASONABLY WARM TO  
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. HOLD ON BECAUSE IT'S  
GONNA BE A WILD, TOPSY TURVY TEMPERATURE RIDE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS  
AND THE RIDE COULD END ON A WINTRY NOTE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS  
OF THE SIERRA ONE WEEK FROM TODAY.  
 
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCE, MER, FAT, VIS AND BFL THROUGH  
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE  
PUBLIC...DURFEE  
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER....BS  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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