006
FXUS66 KHNX 200630
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1130 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUING TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS IN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT.
3. AN APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW BRINGS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY, WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER AFTERWARDS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, HOWEVER, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT STILL HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL SEE A DOWNTREND OF A FEW DEGREES, BUT WILL REMAIN
AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
LOOKING TO THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, THE CUT-OFF TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LARGE RAIN BAND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, AND THE MOST
IMPACTED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE SIERRA NEVADA AND ITS
FOOTHILLS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE
FOOTHILLS NORTH OF KINGS CANYON ARE 60-80% FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY AT 11PM. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK (AT
LEAST 5%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THAT AREA, ALONG WITH THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM VISALIA TO LOS BANOS AS THE CROW FLIES.
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET,
WITH TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE THAT ELEVATION AND 12 TO 18
INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MAINLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP.
DUE TO THIS, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS FROM SEQUOIA NP NORTHWARDS FROM 2AM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH 5PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS HEAVY
SNOW, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND NOT JUST FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE OF 64 MPH GUSTS OR HIGHER ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES AND SIMILAR CHANCES FOR 55 MPH GUSTS IN THE MOJAVE
DESERT ITSELF ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
AS THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO THE 25
TO 35% RANGE FOR THE NORTH VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS, MAINLY
BEHIND THAT BAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASED DYNAMICS BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE COMBINED WITH THE NEWLY FALLEN MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON HEATING. AS OF TODAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PUT THIS AREA UNDER A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, ANY CELL THAT FORMS
STILL COMES WITH THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION MOVES ON,
A WEAK TROUGH MAY STILL HANG AROUND ALOFT, WITH CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUING TO AGREE WITH THAT FORECAST. THIS
TROUGH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND BECOME ANOTHER CUT-
OFF LOW, THOUGH MUCH WEAKER THAN THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. THIS
SECOND CUT-OFF MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION BY NEXT
SUNDAY, THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER IN COMPARISON AND CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS OUTCOME AS THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA UNDER LIKELY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK DOES DROP INTO THE LEANING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP
CATEGORY, SUGGESTING A LOWERED LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT WITH A DECREASE IN
MINRH VALUES BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN PERCENT. WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS A PATTERN CHANGE LATE MONDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ANTICIPATED FROM THEN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ323-326>328-330.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page