704
FXUS66 KHNX 221904
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1104 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
2. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY
BE BROKEN.
3. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING A 70 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD AND A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.
4. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY (25 TO 50 PERCENT)
FOR MEASUREABLE RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING THE
FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN STAGNANT AIR PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA
AND AS A RESULT, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FOLLOWING ARE PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 75 DEGREES FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
BAKERSFIELD 25% 60% 75%
COALINGA 10% 60% 75%
FRESNO 4% 20% 30%
HANFORD 10% 40% 50%
MADERA 5% 25% 20%
MERCED 5% 20% 10%
VISALIA 5% 25% 30%
IN ADDITION, THE FOLLOWING ARE PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 70
DEGREES IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
LAKE ISABELLA 40% 85% 90%
MARIPOSA 0% 25% 35%
OAKHURST 2% 40% 55%
THREE RIVERS 70% 90% 90%
WITH STAGNATING AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THERE’S A CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO SHOW UP IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE RETURN OF
FOGGY CONDITIONS IS TUESDAY MORNING AS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE AND A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SURFACE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY NEAR 100 PERCENT. THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT COOLER, ALBEIT STILL ABOVE NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LESS THAN A
50 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO BUILD IN
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BACK WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, AND FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND DESERT AREAS. THERE IS A
60 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A 40 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED
75, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AREAS. THESE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE REGION, WITH SMALL INCREASES
TO MOISTURE. AS OF NOW, THERE IS ONLY A 25 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN 0.01 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA’S VALLEY AND FOOTHILL AREAS ON FRIDAY. AFTER
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN AFTER THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR A BROADER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIDER SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GRAB ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. THERE IS
A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY BETWEEN SUNDAY, MARCH 2ND AND
TUESDAY, MARCH 4TH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/21/2025 12:45
EXPIRES: 02/22/2025 23:59
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, AND
MADERA COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...SM
AVIATION....SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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