677
FXUS66 KHNX 040445
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
945 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY, MOJAVE SLOPES
AND DESERT WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY.
2. PROLONGED HEAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SJ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY.
3. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES,
LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW EXITING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST. WHILE TOO FAR TO PROVIDE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH WEATHER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AS MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA APPROACH 100 DEGREES. UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE
(POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IS IN THE RANGE OF 80-95 PERCENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN THIS
WEEK. THE QUESTION NOW IS CAN THE HEAT PRODUCTS (EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY) BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BEFORE THE NEXT
HEAT-UP LATER THIS WEEK.
A LOOK AT THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 105
DEGREES CONTINUES TO SHIFTED UP FROM ANALYSIS DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS STILL
FAVORED WITH MERCED COUNTY NOW SHOWING PERCENTAGES IN THE 30-50
PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MAINTAINING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ENTIRE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE LONG TERM, WHILE POE OF REACHING
105 DEGREES SHOWS A DROP IN PERCENTAGES AROUND MID-WEEK, THE
VALUES THAN TREND UP LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
HAVE THE HEAT PRODUCTS GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A NEW SET OF
HEAT PRODUCTS LATER THIS WEEK. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER STILL
HAS THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF HAVING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
FURTHERMORE, ENSEMBLES HAVE THE MONSOON MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO
THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ301>317-319-321-
332-334>336.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page