590
FXUS66 KHNX 220836
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
136 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND CAUSING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO CREATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE MORNING (10-20%
CHANCE THIS MORNING).
2. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A 15-30% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM
11AM THROUGH 8PM.
3. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING IN RAINFALL TO THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS, AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER SIERRA NEVADA, ALL OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE, IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH, HAS BEGUN TO COME ASHORE, WHICH IS LEADING TO THE
FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS.
THERE ARE ALSO SMALL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AS THE
CUT-OFF LOW COMES FURTHER ONTO LAND, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION AT 10-20% FROM 5AM THROUGH 11AM.
THEN, AS AFTERNOON HEATING IS ADDING TO THE MIX, CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-30% FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM 11AM THROUGH 5PM.
THEN AS THE SUN SETS AND THE LOW MOVES EAST, CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT REDUCE BACK TO 10-15% THROUGH 8PM BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW 5% AFTER 8PM.
AFTER THIS CURRENT SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING TAKES OVER THE
DOMINATE PATTERN OVER CALIFORNIA. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH, THIS TIME
FROM THE NORTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD THIS TROUGH COMING
IN FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST
TULARE COUNTY. NEW FORECASTS HAVE THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH, WITH
PRECIPITATION NOW ONLY REACHING INTO MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES.
THERE MAY STILL BE RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
SIERRA NEVADA, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN YOSEMITE NP BELOW 8000 FEET, AND SIMILAR CHANCES FOR AN
INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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