309
FXUS66 KHNX 031753
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
953 AM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOWFALL
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6,000 FEET.
2. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA
ABOVE 6,000 FEET FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS BELOW
6,000 FEET FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
3. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ROTATION MAY
OCCUR IN CELLS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS DUE TO HIGHLY-SHEAR
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
4. STRONGER WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA CRESTS AND ALONG
THE WEST SIDE HILLS THROUGH TODAY.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY AS A
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, AFTER THE INITIAL
BAND MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MERCED COUNTY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A 2 PERCENT CHANCE
OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING DRY
SLOT NORTH OF THE LINE WHICH COULD HELP GIVE A CLUE AS TO
WHETHER ANY CONVECTION TAKES PLACE. FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A
CONCERN AS THE WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY UNDER A MARGINAL
(5-15 PERCENT) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE SIERRA
FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRESNO COUNTY UNDER A SLIGHT (15-40 PERCENT)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY.
SUNDAY BRINGS MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN. THE FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE PART OF THE TROUGH
WILL BREAK OFF BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW
AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
CUTOFF LOW WILL SHIFT THE FLOW AND BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE PATTERN CHANGES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS AGREE
THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE CPC HAS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION IN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THE 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT
WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE VALLEY DUE TO LOWERED VISIBLITIES
AND LOWER CLOUD DECKS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SATURDAY JANUARY 3 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND IN KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA)
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ317>322-324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ323-326>331.
PUBLIC...JPK
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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