201
FXUS66 KHNX 142016
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
116 PM PDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
THE HIGH SIERRA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
BREEZY TO GUSTY OVER PARTS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT AREAS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AND WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
CONFIGURATION HAS A WEAK CLOSED LOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BLOCK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WEAK LOW HAS BROUGHT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ALSO, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE YOSEMITE AREA TODAY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH FORECAST AREA AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
HAS BROUGHT SOME MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND A BIT OF LIFT TO THESE
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE YOSEMITE
AREA.
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN PARTS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AREAS YESTERDAY AND WILL DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS NOW
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AGAIN BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEAK TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, PRIMARILY
THE YOSEMITE NECK OF THE WOODS. PERIODS OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME.
GUIDANCE HAS THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SYNOPTIC WARMING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE WARMEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, FOR FRESNO ON
SUNDAY THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 85 DEGREES AND ON MONDAY A 98 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT. FOR
BAKERSFIELD ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 66 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPS
GREATER THAN 85 AND AN 88 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE TIMING
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. SO, THE FORECAST MAY BE PUSHED BACK
SLIGHTLY WITH ANY DELAY TO THIS BLOCKY PATTERNS RETREAT.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
INTO THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. BUT, AGAIN KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
BLOCKY PATTERN CAVEAT EMPTOR IS INDEED IN PLACE.
AVIATION
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS ALONG THE
HIGH SIERRA AROUND YOSEMITE THROUGH 03Z. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING
ABOVE 35KTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ196-198-199.
PUBLIC...ANDERSEN
AVIATION....ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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