899
FXUS66 KHNX 062302
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
402 PM PDT MON APR 6 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES...
1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
2. THE RISK FOR FIRE STARTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO LOWER HUMIDITIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
3. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS PRECIPITATION,
WINDS, AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST, CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THE
CURRENT BREAK-DOWN OF THE RIDGE PATTERN IS ALREADY BE OBSERVED
IN THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MOUNTAIN WINDS. YET, EVEN WITH THE COOLING EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERS CALIFORNIA.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, A DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION AROUND
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAIN NATURE OF
DEALING WITH A CLOSED “CUT-OFF” LOW, WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
TIMING SPREAD UNTIL THE STORM REACHES THE SHORT-TERM. FOR NOW,
WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS OVER
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND THE
TEHACHAPI RANGE/MOJAVE DESERT AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, INITIAL CHANCES
OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH BY EARLY THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, WHILE ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM’S PLACEMENT
IS HIGH, PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH (0.10”)
JUMPS TO 40-70 PERCENT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND BETWEEN 20-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ON SATURDAY, PROBABILITY
OF RECEIVING A QUARTER OF AN INCH (0.25”) ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA
DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD REMAINS AROUND 40-60 PERCENT. WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 7,000 FEET, THE MENTIONED PERCENTAGE
RANGES WILL PLACE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH CATEGORY
WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6-8 INCHES OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST WHERE OROGRAPHICS MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION VALUES NEAR
THE UPPER RANGE. FURTHERMORE, WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS ENSEMBLES PLACE A 5-15
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA –
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY – ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
RISE TO 15-25 PERCENT ON FRIDAY (BEST CHANCES) WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND DROP BACK TO 5-10 PERCENT ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND REMAIN IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST THAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD THE 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING
LIKELY LEANING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL’S. ON THE OTHER-HAND,
PRECIPITATION IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE LEANING/LIKELY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE ODDS TRENDING MORE TOWARD LEANING (33-40
PERCENT) OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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