542
FXUS66 KHNX 120534
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1034 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOTTER TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING TRIPLE-DIGITS FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
2. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
LAKE ISABELLA AREA THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY WITH MODERATE HEAT
RISK.
3. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 5 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE COASTAL RANGES AND AREAS ALONG I-5 FROM KERN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO MERCED COUNTY, AS WELL AS TAFT AND BUENA VISTA
LAKE.
4. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT AND IN
THE LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE IN WESTERN KINGS AND KERN
COUNTIES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONGER WINDS.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATERS ARE RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S HIGHS WERE IN THE UPPER 90'S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. BAKERSFIELD
REACHED 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHILE FRESNO
REACHED 99 DEGREES. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TRIPLE DIGITS IS IN STORE
TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND THE THERMAL
BELT UP FROM ELEVATIONS AROUND 500 FEET UP TO 2,000 FEET IN THE
COASTAL RANGES, KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER SIERRA
FOOTHILLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A TRIPLE DIGIT READING ON TUESDAY
IS AT 60-70 PERCENT FOR FRESNO SOUTHWARD, BUT MUCH LOWER FOR
AREAS NORTH OF FRESNO (20 PERCENT OR LESS).HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 70-80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO REACH AT LEAST 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS; THUS,
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. OTHERWISE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMEPRATURES
WARM A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN ON THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE DUE TO ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH, WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER OUR REGION AND
BRINGS ANOTHER WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WEST WINDS APPROACHING 10-15 KTS AT TAF SITES WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AT BFL 00Z WEDNESDAY. GUSTS 30-35 KTS OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES BEGINNING 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH MINIMUM VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH DAY EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN
RHS ARE BELOW 25 PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
GRASS FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE PROLONGED DRYING OF FINE FUELS DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST SIDE
HILLS AND COASTAL RANGES FROM KERN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO MERCED
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH HAS
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD ANY DEVELOPED FIRES SHOULD THEY OCCUR, BUT
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN RH AS THEY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
INTO THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, IN THE MOJAVE DESERT, MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED BELOW 10 PERCENT TUESDAY, IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
ARRIVE IN THIS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
AREAS, LOW RHS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN IMPROVE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ300>317-319-321-
332.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ300-304-308-309-313.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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