331
FXUS66 KHNX 161701
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1001 AM PDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES AND DESERT FLOOR.
3. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS EXISTS BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK IN EASTERN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASED
WINDS.
4. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE INSIDE SLIDER MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. INSTEAD, IT'LL BRING WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER. TODAY, THE
VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE BREEZY WEATHER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OF OVER 20 MPH. ALONG
THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, AS
THEY WILL SEE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
45 MPH. TEMPERATURE WISE, IT'LL BE NICE AND COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE (BEST CASE) OF
MEETING AND EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE (WORST
CASE) OF MEETING AND EXCEEDING 76 DEGREES. THE SOUTHERN PART HAS
A BEST CASE OF MEETING AND EXCEEDING 72 DEGREES AND A WORST CASE
OF MEETING AND EXCEEDING 79 DEGREES.
THESE NICE TEMPS WILL BE LEAVING US AFTER FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS SOME RIDGING THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY HAS A
BEST CASE OF MEETING AND EXCEEDING 73 DEGREES AND A WORST CASE
SCENARIO OF 79 DEGREES. SOUTH OF FRESNO IS LOOKING AT BEST CASE
72 DEGREES AND WORST CASE 80 DEGREES. ON MONDAY, THESE BEST CASE
WORST CASE SCENARIOS GET WARMER. FRESNO COUNTY AND NORTH OF IT
IS LOOKING AT BEST CASE OF 80 DEGREES AND WORST CASE OF 85
DEGREES. WORKING OUR WAY DOWN SOUTH, THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS
88 DEGREES. LET'S HOPE FOR BEST CASE WITH WOULD KEEP THE
SOUTHERN CWA AT 80 DEGREES.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO GET INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND BRING SOME CHANCES OF
RAINFALL. MONDAY EVENING IS LOOKING TO BE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THAT INCREASES TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT
ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF, THERE'S
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD WEATHERMAN'S ADAGE OF "CLOSED LOW, METEOROLOGIST WOE"
REMAINS TRUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE
WILL BE MORE CERTAINTY AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO G35KT ACROSS MOJAVE DESERT AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
PUBLIC...BB
AVIATION....BB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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