516
FXUS66 KHNX 211036
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
336 AM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER. A COLD
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND POSSIBLY WET
WET WEATHER INTO THE DISTRICT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BATTLE WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN SUMMER AND FALL
THIS WEEK. INEVITABLY, AUTUMN WILL WIN THE WAR OF AIR MASSES
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IF SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
CORRECT, WETTING RAIN COULD FALL IN AREAS OF THE CWA BY NEXT
SATURDAY THAT HAVE NOT HAD MEASURABLE RAIN SINCE THE 26TH OF MAY!
IN THE NEAR TERM, THIS LAST WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL LIVE UP TO ITS
REPUTATION. A BIG WARM UP IS IN THE OFFING DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE THE WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, LOWER
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WHILE A TRANSITORY SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE FIRST
OFFICIAL DAY OF FALL MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL TREND ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS A RESULT. THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK AS AN INSIDE SLIDER. AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK, THE STORM COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL GRAVITATE
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A MAJOR WARM
UP ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK UP INTO THE 90S BOTH DAYS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, LOWER
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERMOMETER READINGS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
CENTURY MARK IN THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS OF THE VALLEY AND DESERT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TEMPERATURE PENDULUM WILL SWING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION LATER
IN THE WEEK AS A COLD GULF OF ALASKA STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. THE ECM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM INTO
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE CENTER OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WITH A DRIER LAND TRAJECTORY COMPARED TO THE
ECM. WHATEVER MODEL YOU LOOK AT, PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD POSSIBILITY IN AT LEAST THE OROGRAPHIC REGIONS OF OUR CWA
(NAMELY THE SIERRA) TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND IT COULD VERY
WELL BE THE SEASON'S FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
(ABOVE 8,000 FEET) SINCE LAST SPRING. WE'RE MORE CONFIDENT OF HOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 70S NEXT
SATURDAY. A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LATE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN ADDITION TO THE SIERRA CREST.
IN SUMMARY, TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM UNSEASONABLY WARM TO
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. HOLD ON BECAUSE IT'S
GONNA BE A WILD, TOPSY TURVY TEMPERATURE RIDE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AND THE RIDE COULD END ON A WINTRY NOTE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA ONE WEEK FROM TODAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCE, MER, FAT, VIS AND BFL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER....BS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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