698
FXUS66 KHNX 161012
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
212 AM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS,
THE LOWER SIERRA AND INTO THE LAKE ISABELLA AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
2. A SECOND, COLDER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET.
3. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THURSDAY, WITH
SIMILAR SNOW LEVELS TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS,
THE LOWER SIERRA AND INTO THE LAKE ISABELLA AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A SECOND SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH AN OPEN TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND PULLING IN
COLD AIR FROM CANADA, LEADING TO A COOLER SYSTEM AND LOWERED
SNOW LEVELS. THESE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO START AT
6000 FEET BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET, MEANING LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. THERE IS AGAIN THE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA NEVADA
AND IT'S FOOTHILLS ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH A THIRD SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PRELIMINARY SNOW
LEVELS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE MONDAY
SYSTEM, AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK
AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ317>322-332-333.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ323-326>331.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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