925
FXUS66 KHNX 061747
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1047 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR WEST SIDE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF 198 AND SAN LUIS RESERVOIR THROUGH 11 PM PDT TUESDAY,
JULY 7TH. BEWARE OF UNSETTLED WATERS.
2. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
3. SLOW BUT STEADY WARMUP NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT RISK REACHING
ELEVATED TO MAJOR LEVELS BY WEEKEND.
4. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATE ELEVATED FIRE RISK INTO
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
AS WE GET INTO JULY PROPERLY, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REFLECT THAT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ABOUT A
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH, THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY (SJV) WILL HAVE A STEADY WARM UP INTO THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES. TODAY, THERE IS ONLY A 15% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN THE BAKERSFIELD
AREA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SJV IS AT LESS THAN 5%.
THOUGH, THE MOJAVE DESERT IS AT A 80-95%, WITH CALIFORNIA CITY
BEING AT 80% AND RIDGECREST AT 95. THERE IS A POE OF REACHING
105 DEGREES OF ONLY 15%, THUS THE HOTTEST PLACES TODAY WILL NOT
EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
WITH THIS STEADY WARM UP, THE SJV WILL SEE THE POE OF REACHING
100 DEGREES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, YET REMAIN LOW (>20%)
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE POE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES
IS BETWEEN 25-50% FOR THE NORTHERN SJV, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION IS AT 50-75%. FRIDAY IS SHAPING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
THIS WEEK, AS THE POE EXPANDS TO BE 50% IN MERCED COUNTY, BUT
65-80% FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN SJV. THE SOUTHERN SJV IS
CURRENTLY AT 90-95% FOR FRIDAY'S POE OF 100 DEGREES. THE POE OF
EXCEEDING 105 IN THE SOUTHERN SJV IS CURRENTLY AT 25-40%, SO
THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 105. LOOKING AT THE
10TH-90TH% RANGE, THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF BAKERSFIELD EXCEEDING
108 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THAT IS THE MOST EXTREME SCENARIO ON
DECK, CURRENTLY.
THANKS TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE YESTERDAY (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM DOUGLAS), THERE IS A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL THROUGHOUT
THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. BETWEEN 2,200 FEET AND 5,300 FEET IN
ELEVATION, THERE EXISTS A 4-8 PERCENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET (AND YOSEMITE NP) WILL SEE A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9,000 FEET WILL
SEE A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FUTURE, DAY 8 MODELS (MONDAY, JULY 13TH)
ARE HINTING AT A SIMILAR STORY. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR THE ENTIRE
SJV, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 105-107 DEGREES, WITH THE
NORTH PORTION SJV BEING AT 105 DEGREES AND THE SOUTH AT 107
DEGREES. ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SET UP NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH'LL AID IN THESE
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS THE SJV WITHIN
A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS DOES THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE,
IT'LL HELP SURGE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SJV AS WELL, AS THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS THE SJV IN BOTH THE 33-40% AND 40-50% ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAVING THE ENTIRE
SJV IN A 40-50% ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. NEVERTHELESS, WE
ARE REALLY STARTING TO GET INTO THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.
WITH THESE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A
MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK ON FRIDAY, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3) HEATRISK. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE PROPER
COOLING FOR YOU, YOUR NEIGHBORS, AND PETS.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AND
MUCH COLDER NEAR WATER FLOWING FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXERCISE
COLD WATER SAFETY AT ALL TIMES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING IN AND NEAR MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ300.
PUBLIC...BB
AVIATION....BB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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