386
FXUS66 KHNX 191829
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1129 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUING TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS IN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT.
3. AN APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW BRINGS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY, WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER AFTERWARDS.
DISCUSSION
AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES EAST OVER THE CWA, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER (THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE)
TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY EVENING, RIDGING WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED
EAST BY THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEK.
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE IS INCREASING
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA NEVADA, ITS FOOTHILLS, AND
THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CURRENT PROBABILITIES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD FOR AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 7000 FEET NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON IS 60-80%, AND 40-60% FOR THE REST OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA.
LOOKING TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN ARE 50-60% FOR FRESNO NORTHWARDS, WHILE THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHADOWED BY THE COASTAL RANGE AS
THE CHANCES FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DROP TO 20-30%. THIS
PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA SANS KERN COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES
OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH 5AM WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
6000-7000 FEET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
EVENING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 5000-6000 FEET
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH
OF YOSEMITE NP, WITH LOCATIONS NORTHWARDS EXPECTING 12 TO 18
INCHES WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 9000 FEET. AS A RESULT, A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2AM PDT TUESDAY TO 5PM PDT
WEDNESDAY.
ALONG WITH THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BAND EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING, THE CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THAT BAND WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE EXTRA
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH THE NEWLY DROPPED RAINFALL AND THE
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS,
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON TUESDAY ARE 20-30%, BEGINNING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY BEFORE RUNNING INTO THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY, THOUGH ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES
AS WEAK, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT. BY NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER
CUT-OFF TROUGH MAY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH CALIFORNIA, THOUGH
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SEEING A WEAKER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS TUESDAY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO PREDICT LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH
THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRONG WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGES ON SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY DRYING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT. ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOJAVE
DESERT WITH A DECREASE IN MINRH VALUES BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS A PATTERN CHANGE LATE
MONDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ANTICIPATED
FROM THEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ323-326>328-330.
PUBLIC AND AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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