989
FXUS66 KHNX 060531
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1031 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT
THROUGH THIS WEEK BEFORE A COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
2. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND
3. HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AT 10 PM.
DISCUSSION
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE HEAT DOME STRENGTH
(FROM A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE), TEMPERATURES MANGED TO REACH THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK THIS AFTERNOON. AT HIS POINT, THE HEAT DOME
WILL REBOUND AS THE HEAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, WILL ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL NOT EXIT THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY, AS THE HEAT DOME BEGINS REBOUNDING WILL SEE A SLIGHT
RISE. WHILE PERCENTAGE ABOVE 50 PERCENT WILL BE SPOTTY, THOSE
PERCENTAGES WILL SEE FURTHER GROWTH GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING 100
DEGREES AS ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY. THE STATE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT CHANGE UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE
DISTURBANCES STRENGTH, THEY DO ATTEMPT TO SIGNAL IN THE
DIRECTION OF A DISTURBANCE. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES IS SHOWING A
SIGN TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS AND BRINGING RELIEF TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. IT IS STILL “WAIT AND SEE” HOW NEXT WEEKEND WILL
DEVELOP AS THE HEAT REMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ300>322.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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