176
FXUS66 KHNX 271807
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1107 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2. A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH FROM NEAR ALASKA AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF US AND COMING OFF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA BY THIS COMING WEEKEND (LOW CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
BEGGINING TO DIG SOUTH AND HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IS AT ABOUT 65-80% ACROSS THE
VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER
AFTER TODAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES ONLY AT ABOUT 40-55% TOMORROW AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
VALLEY. IN ADDITION, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AND TOMORROW GIVEN THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AT AROUND 15-25% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
A MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA (NEAR
ALASKA) AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND, WITH
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LIKELY THE COOLEST
DAYS, THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 67
DEGREES IS AT AROUND 55-70% ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY. IN
ADDITION TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STRONG TROUGH, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM OFF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH
OF HERE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA MEXICO BOARDER. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN THE VALLEY IF IT DOES RAIN AT ALL. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN .1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER
48 HOURS IN THE SAN JAUQUIN VALLEY IS AT AROUND 25-45% BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING; THERE ARE SIMILAR PROBABILITES IN THE MOJAVE
DESERT. THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITES HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF AROUND 50-65%. IF RAINFALL DOES OCCUR IT WOULD
LIKELY BE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY, BUT THE EXACT TIMEFRAMES ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS
FAR OUT. IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. THERE WOULD
ONLY BE MINOR SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF NOW HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A
20-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 8,000 FEET
IN ELEVATION. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT NO PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR AT ALL, WITH A 40-55% CHANCE IN THE VALLEY AND
MOJAVE DESERT, AND A 20-30% CHANCE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT CHANGE IN PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AT LEAST WARM UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE COOLER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND TO CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH A 50-65% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY COOLER CONDITIONS FURTHER OUT INTO THE LONG TERM.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS OUR AREA WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK AND A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED OVER
KBFL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MC
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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