938
FXUS66 KHNX 072315
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
315 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION AND AIR QUALITY SECTIONS UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND UPPER-AIR MODEL DATA IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH A COLD
DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE THE
CIRCULATION SYSTEM WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE DISTURBANCE DROPPING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
TIMING OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE THE ONSET OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE STORM REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN 10PM AND 12AM (MIDNIGHT). AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE BULK OF
THE STORM ENTERS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CROSS THE REGION. IT IS
DURING THIS TIME FROM 10PM THROUGH 10AM THAT AN INSIDE-SLIDER
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND USHERS IN COLD AIR AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. PROBABILITY OF REACH 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
FALLS BELOW 10 PERCENT DURING THE STORM. EXPECTED SNOWFALL WILL
THEN IN THE RANGE FROM A DUSTING (TRACE) TO 3 INCHES. HOWEVER,
THE COLD AIR WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AT 5,000 FEET WHEN
THE STORM ENTERS TO DROP TO NEAR 4,000 FEET BY DAY-BREAK ON
THURSDAY. FOR THE GRAPEVINE (TEJON PASS), A 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY EXIST OF HAVING SNOW LEVEL AT 4,000 FEET BY 7AM PST
ON THURSDAY. WITH THESE LEVELS, A DUSTING OF SNOW REACHING TEJON
PASS WILL BE OBSERVED THURSDAY MORNING.
OF CONCERN DURING THE SAME TIME, WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK-UP
BEFORE DAY-BREAK ON THURSDAY AS PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 15 MPH
REACH 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
INTERSTATE-5 BY 1AM PST. PERCENTAGES INCREASE AT 4AM PST WITH
PROBABILITY OF 40 MPH WINDS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. STRONG WINDS MAY PEAK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS PROBABILITY OF 50 MPH
GUSTS REACH 40-60 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. BETWEEN 2PM AND 4PM PST, THE PERCENTAGES DROP OFF AS
THE VORT-LOBE ENERGY FROM THE INSIDE-SLIDER MOVES INTO AN AREA
JUST WEST OF PHOENIX. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS
(HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY) AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS AN AREA FROM FORT
TEJON TO TEHACHAPI DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THE WIND
PRODUCTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS TO SEE A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS WITH LINGERING SIERRA
CREST AND MOUNTAIN RIDGE-TOP BREEZES.
BY FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INTRODUCING A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN, SO DOES THE RETURN OF FOG ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, THE OUTLOOK OF MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY IN DENSE FOG THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A 10 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS BETWEEN 06Z
TONIGHT AND 18Z THURSDAY. A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 8, 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN KERN COUNTY. BURNING DISCOURAGED
IN FRESNO, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND IN
KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ334>336-338.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ339.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ334-335.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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