620
FXUS66 KHNX 151746
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1046 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN AND KERN
RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK, INCLUDING TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT,
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK, PARTICULARLY NEAR URBAN AREAS.
3. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE RISK IN
EASTERN KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND.
4, 10-15% PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY INCLUDE DRY LIGHTNING.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
OUR AREA'S INTRODUCTION TO SUMMER 2026 REMAINS TODAY AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING CONTINUES TO
HOLD OVER CALIFORNIA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN & KERN RIVER VALLEYS AND MOJAVE DESERT. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE TUESDAY HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
(40-50%) FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY SOUTH OF FRESNO. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S (PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS), THE ACCUMULATED
HEAT EXPOSURE IS SIGNIFICANT. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO ENSURE ACCESS
TO PROPER COOLING, STAY HYDRATED, LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, AND
WEAR LIGHT AND BREATHABLE CLOTHING IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS. TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTION FOR VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND FOR ANIMALS AND
CHECK IN ON THOSE IN NEED.
CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN TO SOME DEGREE STARTING THURSDAY,
HELPING TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS
BROUGHT ELEVATED FIRE RISK, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN KERN AND
TULARE COUNTIES. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, HOWEVER, AS
WE HAVE SEEN NUMEROUS FIRES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA RECENTLY.
THIS FIRE RISK INCLUDES THE 10-15% THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BRINGING A RISK OF DRY
LIGHTNING.
AS PEOPLE ATTEMPT TO COOL DOWN FROM THESE HOT TEMPERATURES,
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT WATERWAYS ARE STILL RUNNING COLD. EVEN THE
MOST EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS CAN LOSE DEXTERITY IN 10-15 MINUTES IN
WATER THAT IS 50 TO 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE SIERRA CREST THIS
AFTERNOON MAY INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, RAIN, SMALL HAIL,
LIGHTNING, AND TURBULENCE.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ300>321-332.
PUBLIC\AVIATION...ND
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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