019
FXUS66 KHNX 151619
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
919 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH BOTH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
SEEING A MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. A SLIGHT (10-15%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. A WARMING TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. MODERATE HEAT RISK
RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND THURSDAY IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
4. ELEVATED FIRE RISK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT WITH BREEZY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
DISCUSSION
IT WAS RELATIVELY COOL THIS MORNING, AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S. EXPECT A SLIGHT LOWERING
IN TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE PROBABILITY
FOR A HIGH OF AT LEAST 95 DEGREES, AT LEAST IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, IS ABOUT 50-75 PERCENT TODAY AND LOWERS CONSIDERABLY FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST LOCATION APPEARS TO BE THE INDIAN
WELLS VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE (30-50%) FOR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF A GUST AT LEAST 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(AROUND 75 PERCENT CHANCE) AND GUSTS AT LEAST 25 MPH TOWARDS
PACHECO PASS (70 PERCENT OR GREATER). THERE IS A SLIGHT (10-15%)
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90'S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS IN BOTH
THE VALLEY AND DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 80'S SUCH AS TOWARDS MERCED COUNTY (AT LEAST
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE TO REACH 90 DEGREES OR LOWER OVER THIS
WEEKEND). A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT (STILL
ABOUT 10-15%) CHANCE OF SIERRA NEVADA THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. IF NOTHING ELSE, THERE WILL BE CUMULUS CLOUD
BUILDUPS.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, ENJOY THIS WHILE IT LASTS AS A WARMING TREND SOON
FOLLOWS. THE CHANCES FOR TRIPLE DIGITS BEGIN WEDNESDAY IN THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT AND IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY. A
MODERATE HEAT RISK RETURNS TO THESE AREAS BY THEN, AND FURTHER
WARMING IS IN STORE ON NEXT FRIDAY. THE CPC (CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER) CONTINUES TO FAVOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
BOTH THE 6-10 DAY (50-60 PERCENT CHANCE) AND 8-14 DAY (40-50
PERCENT CHANCE) OUTLOOKS ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH IS BASICALLY NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION).
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT, OR 10-15 PERCENT, CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM 19Z TODAY UNTIL 03Z
SATURDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO/SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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