810
FXUS66 KHNX 110405
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
905 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER CONCERN
AS THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING.
2. PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WITH CURED FUELS.
3. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH CHANCES OF 20 TO
30% TODAY AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HEAT DOME SHIFTING EAST AS TEMPERATURE BEGAN A COOLING TREND
THAT WILL EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING AS THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 105 DEGREE DROPS TO BELOW 10
PERCENT. WHILE THE POE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES STILL SITS AT
70-90 PERCENT FOR AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, THE POE OF THAT WILL ALSO DROP THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. THEREFORE, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS OUR ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE INTRUSION
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (FOUR CORNERS
AREA) WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLE PRECIP-WATER ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN INCREASING TREND IN VALUES SURGING INTO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE MOMENT, MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE SIERRA CREST AND PORTIONS OF KERN COUNTY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST
DOES SHOW A UP-TICK IN THE PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE THE
SIERRA CREST. WHILE THE LOWER END OF THE SPREAD FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS ZERO (0.00”) THE UPPER END
SHOWS A CHANCE (10 PERCENT) OF RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN
(0.10”-0.20”). THEREFORE, WHILE THE PROBABILITIES ARE HAVE BEEN
LOW, THEY DO INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES DEEPER ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. THEREFORE, WILL EXPECT AN UP-TICK ON
CONVECTION FROM VERY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY TO WIDELY SCATTERED BY
WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE SURGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ON
WEDNESDAY TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WHILE
PROBABILITIES AREA LOW, THE CHANCE OF FOOTHILL CONVECTION MAY
INCREASE AS AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FROM 21Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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