197
FXUS66 KHNX 051654
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
954 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A 5 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
2. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW ABOVE
7,000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA.
3. A WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST MODERATE HEAT RISK IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING US
COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER MUCH OF THE GOLDEN STATE
ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN, BUT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK'S INITIALLY. FOR SUNDAY UNTIL
AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY, EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY (20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE) ON SUNDAY IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. THERE IS A 65 TO 75 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEEING OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS!
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK AND 80-90 PERCENT FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK) AND BELOW
TO NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (OR AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK) FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS MONTH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, UP TO A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY, WHERE MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND MIST.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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