706
FXUS66 KHNX 110429
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
929 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOTTER TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING TRIPLE-DIGIT VALUES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, ARE IN STORE FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
2. MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY AREAS, WITH A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATERS ARE RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S HIGHS RANGED FROM THE MID 90'S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80 PERCENT CHANCE) TO OCCUR ON
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE FOR TUESDAY (60-70 PERCENT)
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME DAILY RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE TIED OR EXCEEDED. ALSO EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF MORE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT UNTIL TUESDAY.
LOW HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE HOT TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON,
BUT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE LARGER METROPOLITAN
AREAS AND THE THERMAL BELTS IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER
SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
FALL MUCH BELOW 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY, OR BY 10-15 DEGREES, ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELSEWHERE PREVAIL, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SHOW A
50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWN FOR THE 8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, BUT WITH NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OR A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AT BEST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING OUT OF SHADE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RESULT
IN LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM RHS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL FALL BELOW TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM
THROUGH TUESDAY. RHS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE AT THESE VALUES UNTIL TUESDAY, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY FALL TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS. AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR GRASS FIRES AND BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, COASTAL RANGES, SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS, AS WELL
AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DOWNTREND IN 100-
AND 1000-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WARMING
TREND; HOWEVER, BOTH PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. UPSLOPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA CAN HELP TO FURTHER DRY FUELS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE PORTION OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY. NEW FIRE
STARTS MAY ALSO SPREAD MORE QUICKLY WITH INCREASED GUSTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page