641
FXUS66 KHNX 181947 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1247 PM PDT SAT APR 18 2026
UPDATE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE STARTS IN KERN COUNTY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND INCREASED WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT.
3. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINS
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BRING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT. ALONG WITH THIS WARMING, RH'S ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH VALUES DOWN TO 5-10% IN THE
DESERT AND 10-15% FOR WESTERN KERN COUNTY. COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT AND MINOR FIRE RISK FOR WESTERN KERN COUNTY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY.
LOOKING TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA STARTING MONDAY, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT BY TUESDAY. CURRENT IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PLACES AT LEAST 5% CHANCE FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE FOOTHILLS NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500-7000 FEET AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, LOWERING TO 5000-5500 FEET OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR A FOOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE 60-70% NORTH OF KINGS CANYON.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CAUSE STRONG WINDS ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES. PROBABILITIES FOR 65 MPH GUSTS ARE 40 TO 55% FOR TUESDAY
WHEN THE CUT-OFF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS CUT-OFF WILL
ALSO LEAD TO COOLING TEMPERATURES, AND BY WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE VALLEY.
NEXT WEEKEND, A POSSIBLE SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRUSH BY OUR AREA BY
NEXT SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF FRESNO COUNTY AND NORTHWARDS, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES OF RAINFALL AT 30 TO 50% BY
MONDAY, APRIL 27TH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS OUR
REGION UNDER LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE
6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS, SO ANOTHER LATE SEASON
SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE EVEN AS WE APPROACH OUR DRY SUMMER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRONG WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGES ON SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY DRYING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT. ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOJAVE
DESERT WITH A DECREASE IN MINRH VALUES BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN
PERCENT. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS A PATTERN CHANGE LATE
MONDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ANTICIPATED
FROM THEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...ND
AVIATION....SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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