537
FXUS66 KHNX 131805
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1105 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2. 30% PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH SIERRA AND
EASTERN KERN DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
3. SLOW MOVING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
4. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE HIGH SIERRA THIS WEEK, 10%
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, AWAY FROM THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
HEAT DOME HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST IS NOW
SHIFTING BACK OVER THE WEST AS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STARTS A HEAT
WAVE. AS HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS OVER THE WEST, WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARMING, WITH THE ADDITION OF HUMIDITY, TO INCREASE
THE HEAT RISK DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WHILE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 105 DEGREES TODAY WILL STAY BELOW
50 PERCENT, A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS POE OF REACHING 105 DEGREES
BY MID-WEEK DOES GOES UP TO ABOVE 60 PERCENT. POE OF 108
DEGREES WILL ALSO HIT THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER KERN COUNTY.
FURTHERMORE, POE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 75
DEGREES IS LESS THEN 10 PERCENT. WARM NIGHT. THESE INGREDIENTS
AND RANGES WILL LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A BRIEF COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOUR CORNERS HIGH IS INDICATIVE OF MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DOPPLER RADAR IS
SHOWING SHOWERS PUSHING UP WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SEEN SO FAR. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RISE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE 80-90 PERCENT
RANGE LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH (0.10”) OVER 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLES
EVEN SHOW A 50-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (0.25”) ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH PRECIPITATION VALUES, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PERCENTAGE DO DROP ON
TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS STILL HAS A 25-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH ON TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A 20 TO
30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA EACH
DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE
DEVIATION IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS INDICATING THAT THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE. CURRENT CPC ANALYSIS HAS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
HIGH SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z MON COULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE. OTHERWISE, VFR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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