787
FXUS66 KHNX 100415
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. EARLY SEASON HEAT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES RISING TO TRIPLE-DIGIT VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
2. MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY AREAS, WITH A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS AS
WATERS ARE RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S HIGHS WERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES,
AND THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REACHED INTO
THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WERE A BIT
HIGHER TODAY; A HIGH OF 97 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT CHINA LAKE
NAWS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY AND DESERT. MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT ALSO REMAINS ON TRACK TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF THESE READINGS IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND THERMAL BELT LOCATIONS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SJ VALLEY, COASTAL RANGES, AND THE LAKE
ISABELLA/KERN RIVER VALLEY AREAS. LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES, WHICH
WILL BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT OF GRASS AND BRUSH FIRES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. ALSO, REMEMBER TO
PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY IF VENTURING INTO THE WATERWAYS AND
LAKES!
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON TUESDAY ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND, INCLUDING THOSE MUCH LIKE TODAY'S HIGHS.
LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY AND
8-14 DAY PERIODS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS (33-40
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS NOW SHOWN
FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WHILE THE 8-14 DAY OUT LOOK SHOWS A
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WITH ALSO A SLIGHT TILT IN
THE ODDS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
FIRE WEATHER
WARMING OUT OF SHADE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM RHS IN THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL FALL
BELOW TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RHS WILL
FALL TO OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SIERRA NEVADA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THESE
VALUES UNTIL TUESDAY, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN KERN
COUNTY FALL TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS
FIRES AND BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
COASTAL RANGES, SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. A DOWNTREND IN 100- AND 1000-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WARMING TREND;
HOWEVER, BOTH PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. UPSLOPING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA CAN HELP TO FURTHER DRY FUELS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PORTION
OF THE RANGE IN SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY. NEW FIRE STARTS MAY
ALSO SPREAD MORE QUICKLY WITH INCREASED GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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