102
FXUS66 KHNX 262053
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
153 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING LAKE ISABELLA AND KERNVILLE UNTIL 11 PM
SATURDAY. DRY FUELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND STRONGER
TERRAIN-INDUCED WINDS MAY CAUSE ALREADY-BURNING FIRES TO QUICKLY
SPREAD AND COULD INITIATE NEW ONES.
2. THE HIGH RISK OF GRASS FIRES IN THE VALLEY CONTINUES, WITH
ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR EVEN WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
3. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY TODAY BEFORE DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
4. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY AN INCOMING TROUGH OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT TROUGH IS A SMALLER
CIRCULATION EMBEDDING IN IT'S FLOW, WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS AND LOWERED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 15-20% FOR THE REGION AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS AND THE VERY
DRY FUELS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DRYNESS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO THE THUNDERSTORM LIKELIHOOD FALL TO LESS THAN 5% FOR
THE WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA, THE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING AND WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGE IS
ILLUSTRATED IN THE PROBABILITY FOR 100 DEGREES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW:
FRI SAT
BAKERSFIELD: 99% 15%
COALINGA: 95% 0%
DELANO: 99% 5%
FRESNO: 96% 1%
HANFORD: 97% 0%
MADERA: 90% 0%
MERCED: 75% 0%
PORTERVILLE: 96% 5%
REEDLEY: 95% 1%
VISALIA: 97% 10%
THIS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH A 15-50%
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 95 OR HIGHER AND A LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE FOR TRIPLE DIGITS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORKWEEK, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING
BACK THOSE TRIPLE DIGITS, WITH THE VALLEY SEEING A 45-75% FOR
100 DEGREES OR HIGHER BY THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THIS RIDGE MAY ALSO BRING UP SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MAY CAUSE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE IN AND
AROUND WILDFIRES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE AREAS OF LAKE
ISABELLA AND KERNVILLE UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15-20% (WITH THE POSSIBILITY TO
BECOME LOWER) AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH DURING THE PERIOD.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BY WESTERLY/UPSLOPING. FIRE DANGER
WILL BE CRITICAL DURING THIS TIME, WITH EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND PICKS UP SPEED. ANY
ACTIVE FIRE MAY SPREAD FASTER AND NEW FIRES MAY START MORE
EASILY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 07/25/2024 14:31
EXPIRES: 07/26/2024 23:59
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ338.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ595.
PUBLIC/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER..........EW
IDSS/PIO..............................AB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page