695
FXUS66 KHNX 221827
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1127 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK, BECOMING TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.
2. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE INCREASED FIRE
RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
3. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE
COASTAL REGIONS WITH SURFACE OBSERVED TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE PACHECO PASS AREA. WITH
THIS, WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SAN LUIS RESERVOIR AS WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR SAN LUIS
RESERVOIR FOR THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE,
ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF HAVING A ZONAL
FLOW COMPONENT IN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE PATTERN. THEREFORE, LOCAL
WINDS WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE AND THE POSSIBLE HEAT WAVE MAY BE
LIMITED. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE MOISTURE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A
NORTHWARD SURGE FROM THE SUBTROPICS (MONSOONAL) THAT MAY NOT
REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IF THE WESTERLIES FORCE THE MOISTURE
SURGE EASTWARD.
WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHOW HEIGHT-RISES FROM A HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE FIGHTING A WEAK DISTURBANCE,
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES REACHING
ABOVE 60 PERCENT OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY PORTION OF KERN
COUNTY ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PERCENTAGES ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY, POE OF 100 DEGREES RANGES FROM 10 TO 50
PERCENT WITH BETTER PERCENTAGES OVER KINGS COUNTY. THEREFORE,
WHILE A HEAT WAVE WILL HIT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MID-WEEK, THE
STRENGTH OF THE HEAT WAVE WILL BE ON THE LOWER-END AS THE
VALLEY STRUGGLES TO RECEIVE POE OF REACHING 103 DEGREES ABOVE 15
PERCENT. THEREFORE, 98 TO 101 DEGREES (5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL) WILL BE MORE COMMON DURING THIS EVENT. LONGER
RANGE ANALYSIS HAS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PLACING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IN THE LEANING ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY (40-50% CHANCE)
FOR TEMPERATURES IN BOTH THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER
THE SIERRA CREST AND PORTIONS OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS CLOSER
TO THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURES REMAINS
STEADY OVER AN AREA SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAINS MOSTLY WESTERLY, THE FLOW WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WHILE LIMITED, SOME MOISTURE SURGE DOES
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THUNDER WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND WILL TREND
TOWARD AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TO ALMOST 15
PERCENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES). CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SURGE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD TOWARD LEANING ABOVE (33-40% CHANCE)
NORMAL. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE
STARTING ITS NORTHWARD SURGE THIS SUMMER.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLIN
AVIATION....AC
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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