446  
FXUS66 KHNX 091027 AAA  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA  
327 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ABOUT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING INTO A  
WARM UP TO TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
SIERRA NEVADA WILL START BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. ALONG WITH THE  
SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION, THE  
DISTRICT WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN/DESERT  
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE MOISTURE  
IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SURGE WELL INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA AS PRECIP-WATER (PW) ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATION  
SHOWING THE 1.5 INCH PW WELL INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. YUMA, AZ  
SOUNDING MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A VALUE OF 2.26 INCHES, WHICH IS  
IN THE RANGE OF ITS DAILY MAX VALUE. CLOSER TO HOME, VANDENBERG  
HAD A PW VALUE OF ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. THEREFORE, HIGHER MOISTURE  
OVER THE REGION WILL RAISE THE CERTAINTY OF CONVECTION THIS  
AFTERNOON AS FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAIN MAY POSE A PROBLEM OF  
SOME OF OUR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE  
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CHANGE TO DIRECTION OF  
THE FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL  
GIVE WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION.  
 
HI-RES SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES FAVORING A SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND AND CLOSER TO  
THE ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT WILL LESSEN THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM  
OVER THE DISTRICT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY,  
ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. BY  
THURSDAY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING  
THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO CANADA AS CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE  
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, CLUSTER  
ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL TOWARD MOVING THE UPPER LOW  
OVER THE RIDGE PATTERN. THEREFORE, ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES  
FURTHER NORTH, WILL WILL STALL AND PLACE THE REGION ON A MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE REGION DRYS OUT  
AS THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR THREATS SHIFT MORE OVER THE FOUR  
CORNERS/GREAT BASIN REGION.  
 
LOOKING AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS FURTHER OUT AND CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND,  
ENSEMBLE BEGIN SHOWING A SIGNAL TOWARD RETROGRADING THE RIDGE  
PATTERN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY GROWS ON THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE  
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS  
THE MOVE IT ACROSS CANADA AS HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST COAST BEGIN  
RISING EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS  
RESPONDING TO THE RISING WEST COAST HEIGHTS BY INCREASING THE  
TRIPLE DIGIT COVERAGE ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AROUND THE END  
OF THE WEEK (AND INTO THE WEEKEND) AS THE HEAT RETURNS.  
UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN FURTHER TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE  
FORECAST IN THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES HINTING TOWARD  
PLACING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND  
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE. WILL SEE IF THIS  
PATTERN HOLDS AND MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE POSSIBLE  
AFTER 18Z TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
ON TUESDAY AUGUST 9 2022...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN  
COUNTY AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/AVIATION/FIRE WX....MOLINA  
IDSS/PIO/SOCIAL MEDIA......JEB  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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