681  
FXUS66 KHNX 111015  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA  
215 AM PST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
1. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY  
THIS MORNING. WHILE 70%-90% PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR AREAS  
OUTSIDE OF TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES, THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE  
30%-50% OF REACHING 32 DEGREES.  
 
2. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES AS WINDS GUST UP TO 50 MPH.  
 
3. RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE  
MUCH WETTER AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE FREEZE CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR-MASS IS NOW  
WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING  
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES, THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY OF FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE  
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT INCLUDING MERCED, MADERA  
AND FRESNO COUNTIES. A DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL  
PROVIDE FOR MIXING AND SLIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO HELP  
BREAK-UP THE COLD SPELL AND INCREASE LOCAL WINDS. THE DOOR WILL  
THAN BE OPEN FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TO ENTER THE REGION FOR  
A RETURN OF WET WEATHER AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE (ATMOSPHERIC  
RIVER [AR]) IS INTRODUCED TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING  
IS SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THAN ATTEMPT  
TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES, 70%-90%  
RANGE OF PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 32 DEGREES  
REMAINS IN THE AREA AROUND MERCED AND MADERA COUNTIES AND THE  
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AN INSIDE-SLIDER IS PROGGED  
TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AS A JET MAX IS STEERED  
AROUND THE SIERRA CREST. THE INCREASE IN MIXING AND UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS, POE OF FREEZING DROPS TO BELOW 15% ACROSS THE SAN  
JOAQUIN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE SWITCH FROM COLD  
TEMPERATURES TO STRONG WINDS. WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE  
INSIDE-SLIDER AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX, WINDS ALONG THE MOJAVE  
DESERT SLOPES WILL GUSTS TO 45-55 MPH AS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOW  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM KSFO-KLAS REACHING VALUES  
BETWEEN 10MB-14MB. THEREFORE, WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REMAIN IN EFFECT AS CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGH FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.  
 
BY MID-WEEK, THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR A STRONGER AND DEEPER  
DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE UPPER AND MOISTURE ANALYSIS  
HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATE 48 HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ENTERING CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY  
REMAINS HIGH. ENSEMBLE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT)  
HAS SHOWN MINIMAL DEVIATION FROM ITS TRAJECTORY OF HAVING THE AR  
PLUME TARGETING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. ENSEMBLE IVT IS  
STILL SHOWING THE AR PLUME MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN 0100 AM PST  
AND 0400 AM PST ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS ALSO  
SHOWING MINIMAL DIFFERENCES IS INTRODUCING A STRONG DISTURBANCE  
ON THURSDAY. THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST REMAINS THE STRIKE  
ZONE AS THE AR LOCATION WILL LIMIT THE ATTENUATION OF MOISTURE  
BEFORE HITTING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE,  
UNLIKE PREVIOUS AR THAT TARGETED NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WE WILL  
SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM.  
EXCESSIVE RAIN (HEAVY SNOW) OUTLOOKS ARE ALREADY POSTED FOR  
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD 24 TO 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION  
TOTALS OF 1 (VALLEY) INCH TO 3 (FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS) INCHES  
VERY LIKELY. SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY IN ENSEMBLE SNOW LEVEL ANALYSIS  
WILL PLACE THE INITIAL RANGE FROM 5,000 TO 6,000 FEET. YET, AS  
BEFORE, THE SNOW LEVEL DURING THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL SIT AT  
7,000 FEET. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH  
POSSIBLE CONVECTION AND BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS BEFORE CLEARING IS  
SEEN THE WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MERCED COUNTY TO YOSEMITE NP  
ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TUESDAY:  
 
VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH MVFR  
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES FROM  
KPTV THROUGH KDLO TO KBFL UNTIL 22Z TODAY. PROBABILITY OF LOW  
CLOUDS DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT AFTER 22Z TODAY. SURFACE WIND  
GUSTS 35 KNOTS OVER THE SERRIA CREST AND TEHACHAPI RANGE FROM  
22Z UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
SIERRA NEVADA DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. VFR EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE KERN DESERT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
ISSUED: 02/10/2025 14:08  
EXPIRES: 02/11/2025 23:59  
ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 11 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS  
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.  
BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES,  
AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND  
FOREST.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR  
CAZ338.  
 
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ300>316.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR CAZ317>322-332-333.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT FOR CAZ323-326>331.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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