590  
FXUS66 KHNX 220836  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA  
136 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 

 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
1. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AND CAUSING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL  
TO CREATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE MORNING (10-20%  
CHANCE THIS MORNING).  
 
2. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH A 15-30% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM  
11AM THROUGH 8PM.  
 
3. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CALIFORNIA THIS  
WEEKEND, BRINGING IN RAINFALL TO THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS, AND  
SNOW TO THE HIGHER SIERRA NEVADA, ALL OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE  
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE, IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE  
TROUGH, HAS BEGUN TO COME ASHORE, WHICH IS LEADING TO THE  
FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS.  
THERE ARE ALSO SMALL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE  
MOJAVE DESERT. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AS THE  
CUT-OFF LOW COMES FURTHER ONTO LAND, WITH PROBABILITIES OF  
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION AT 10-20% FROM 5AM THROUGH 11AM.  
THEN, AS AFTERNOON HEATING IS ADDING TO THE MIX, CHANCES  
INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-30% FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM 11AM THROUGH 5PM.  
THEN AS THE SUN SETS AND THE LOW MOVES EAST, CHANCES FOR  
DEVELOPMENT REDUCE BACK TO 10-15% THROUGH 8PM BEFORE DROPPING  
BELOW 5% AFTER 8PM.  
 
AFTER THIS CURRENT SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING TAKES OVER THE  
DOMINATE PATTERN OVER CALIFORNIA. THEN ANOTHER TROUGH, THIS TIME  
FROM THE NORTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF  
OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD THIS TROUGH COMING  
IN FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST  
TULARE COUNTY. NEW FORECASTS HAVE THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH, WITH  
PRECIPITATION NOW ONLY REACHING INTO MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES.  
THERE MAY STILL BE RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER  
SIERRA NEVADA, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF  
RAIN IN YOSEMITE NP BELOW 8000 FEET, AND SIMILAR CHANCES FOR AN  
INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
EW  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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