371
FXUS66 KHNX 050549
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
950 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPDATE
AVIIATION AND AIR QUALITY SECTIONS
KEY MESSAGES
1. STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOWFALL FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6,000 FEET.
2. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6,000
FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS BELOW 6,000 FEET FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.
3. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
4. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF TULE FOG TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY AT 5-15
PERCENT FOR THE VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA NEVADA. MOST
OF THE VALLEY HAS A 25 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN TODAY WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS INCLUDING BAKERSFIELD
AT 15 PERCENT CHANCE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE DAMPENED BY THE PRESENT CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST BEYOND MONDAY MORNING, OR UNTIL
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE ON MONDAY IN THE VALLEY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
REACH MUCH BEYOND THE COASTAL RANGES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO.
FOG AND STRATUS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. FOR FRIDAY
AND NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SHOWS INCREASING CHANCES (NOW 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WITH A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
FOR THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES AND MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR WILL EXIST BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z
ON MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 4 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND IN KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA)
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ317>322-324-325.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ323-326>331.
PUBLIC...BSO/JPK
AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page