804
FXUS66 KHNX 201820
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1120 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
2. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
3. MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT AREAS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOW
FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA IS STREAKING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST AND COASTAL RANGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE REGION. THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONDENSE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LOCAL TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE, WHICH HAS A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST. FROM YOSEMITE NP TO
SEQUOIA AND KINGS CANYON NP, THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL, GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING; LIGHTNING HAS POTENTIAL TO SPARK NEW WILDFIRES ON
DRY FUELS OUTSIDE OF STORMS. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, REDUCING THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING TO
OCCUR. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
PEAK BEING TUESDAY, WHERE THERE IS UP TO A 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA CREST.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. TODAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, WHICH RISES TO 80 TO 90 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
RETURNING NEAR 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER, IN THE DESERT AREAS, WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES, WHICH RISES TO 80 TO 90
PERCENT EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A 50 TO 60
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES
FOR THE LIKES OF RIDGECREST AND CHINA LAKE EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA
RESULTING FROM NOT JUST THE HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, BUT
ALSO WARMER MORNING LOWS, WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES IN RIDGECREST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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