281
FXUS66 KHNX 010525
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1025 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES BEGINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST COAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. WHILE
COOLER CONDITIONS WERE FELT THIS MONDAY, EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL BE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY AS MAX TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH
AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES, THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST ENSEMBLE SURFACE WIND
ANALYSIS HAS A GOOD CHANCE (40-70 PERCENT) OF OBSERVING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
OF THE AREA. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE BEING
INTRODUCED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WILL EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
EXIST, JOINT PROBABILITIES OF HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND
WIND GUSTS AT OR GREATER THAN 25 MPH RANGE FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. WILL MONITOR.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 90 DEGREES WILL
START OUT LOW DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
SLOWLY RISE TO OVER 20 PERCENT BY NEXT MONDAY. THEREFORE, WILL
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE MARINE
ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWS AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE OCEAN.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY AS HURRICANE KARINA IS ALSO MOVING
NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTH.
INVEST 95E (WHICH IS SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO) WITH GREATER THAN A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMING INTO A NAMED STORM. WHILE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95E, INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT STILL SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OF RECEIVING A TENTH (0.10”) OF AN INCH
RISES TO NEAR 25 PERCENT ON SUNDAY WITH A PEAK PERCENTAGE NEAR
30 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page