303
FXUS66 KHNX 240041
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
441 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY VALID
FROM 3 AM THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR FOG EACH
SUBSEQUENT MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW SEASON AVERAGES THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PROBABILITY FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA.
3. INDICATIONS FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN US TO
END THE MONTH, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EXACT LOCATION AND
IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DISCUSSION
A STABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OVER THE COMING DAYS, A JET STREAK
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT WILL
MISS CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE STATE. WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, AND
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION, FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY (60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE TO OCCUR) IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS VALID FOR MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AREAS FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASON AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, ALBEIT WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY (40 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT DUE TO COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET STREAM.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CONTINUE
TO EXPRESS FAVORABLE CERTAINTY FOR A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
TRACK DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM WESTERN
CANADA. THOUGH, WHILE THESE CLUSTERS SHOWED A MODERATE
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
YESTERDAY, THE FOCUS HAS TURNED MORE TOWARDS THE SIERRA. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A 40 TO 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATON GREATER THAN
0.01", HOWEVER PROBS HAVE DECREASED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
VALLEY AREAS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE CLUSTERS EASTWARD, INDICATING A COLD, BUT
DRIER SYSTEM THAN ONE THAT WOULD BE CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA.
STILL, THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS WORTH WATCHING DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AS AROUND 40 PERCENT OF THE CLUSTER MEMBERS INDITE A
WETTER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, OPPOSED TO THE 60 PERCENT
SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY FOR THE
AREAS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AROUND KHJO AND KVIS BETWEEN
11Z AND 19Z MON DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT; 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS INCLUDING KMCE, KMER, AND KMAE
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON MONDAY NOVEMBER 24 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ301-
302-305-306-310-311.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY/EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page