949  
FXUS66 KHNX 051034  
AFDHNX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA  
234 AM PST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 

 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
1.A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY  
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
2.A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF ZONAL FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO  
BE INTERRUPTED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM  
THE PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SOUTH OF FRESNO, ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW TO  
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND LIGHT RAIN ALONG  
THE COASTAL RANGE. HERE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT VALLEY  
LOCATIONS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FROM  
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING:  
 
BAKERSFIELD: 46%DELANO: 36%  
PORTERVILLE: 31%HANFORD: 26%  
LEMOORE: 21%REEDLEY: 21%  
VISALIA: 21%FRESNO: 16%  
MADERA: 16%MERCED: 11%  
 
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND  
RIDGE-BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO COME IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY RISING TO THE HIGH 60'S AND  
POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 70'S. THE AREA NORTH OF FRESNO HAS A  
20-35% CHANCE OF A HIGH OF 70 ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE AREA SOUTH  
OF FRESNO HAS A 40-55% CHANCE.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOW A SERIES OF  
SHORT TROUGHS PASSING OVER CALIFORNIA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY,  
LEADING TO A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER AS EACH ONE  
GOES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION (10-25% FOR AT EACH 0.01 INCHES) NEXT TUESDAY AS  
ONE OF THESE TROUGH DIGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THEN LONG RANGE  
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ANOTHER WARMING TREND,  
LASTING LONGER THAN THE UPCOMING ONE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PUTTING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNDER A  
33-40% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
 
 
ISSUED: 03/04/2024 14:10  
EXPIRES: 03/05/2024 23:59  
NONE.  
 

 
   
CERTAINTY
 
 
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.  
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.  
 
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.  
 

 
   
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...EW  
IDSS/PIO.......................VJP  
 
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  
 
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