020
FXUS66 KHNX 010600
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
2. MINOR HEAT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
3. AREAS OF MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPANDING ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
4. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
5. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS WATER
IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER
THE WEST, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. SO FAR THIS
SUNDAY, WHILE MAX TEMPERATURE VALUES APPROACHED THE 90F-DEGREE
MARK, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FELL SHORT OF
REACHING 90F-DEGREES. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDS AIMING UPWARD,
WILL SEE MORE SPOTS REACH THE 90F-DEGREE MARK ON MONDAY.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 90F-DEGREES WILL
RANGE FROM 70-90 PERCENT ON MONDAY, YET, POE OF REACHING
95F-DEGREES FALLS BELOW 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE, THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW AS TUESDAY HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
REACHING 95F-DEGREES. POE ON TUESDAY RANGES FROM 60-80 PERCENT.
ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE WELL INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH THIS,
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL WARMING AS POE OF 95F-DEGREES GOES
ABOVE 80 PERCENT. YET, THE POE OF REACHING 100F-DEGREES IS
STILL ONLY IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. THEREFORE, OUT-SIDE OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT, THE VALLEY MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO REACH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEK.
WHILE A DISTURBANCE DOES MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MINIMAL EFFECTS WILL BE FELT
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CHANCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
TOWARD A SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE CENTURY MARK (100F-DEG) THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
JUNE. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND AS THE HEAT OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 90S WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL LOWER AS THEY COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURE RISES
THIS WEEK. THE WARMING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TOWARD SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AS PROBABILITY
OF THUNDER RISES TO NEAR 5-10 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON'S. LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS SHOW NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN LEAN TOWARD A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AVERAGE IN THE EARLY 6-10 PERIOD WITH
LEANING BELOW NORMAL IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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