542
FXUS66 KHNX 261120 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
420 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS
WEEKEND WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND THEN TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK.
2. WINTER-LIKE WEATHER TODAY AS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL BE OBSERVED.
3. A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS NOW BEING USHERED-IN AS A PACIFIC
STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY,
CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE STARTING IN INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THEIR COOLING TREND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE STORM TAKING SHAPE AND STARTING ITS DROP TOWARD
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH-RES SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES STILL PLACING
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN THE TARGET ZONE AS A THE COLD-CORE UPPER
LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS STILL LEANING TOWARD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.
CURRENT POE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SITS AT 30%-40% FROM
MERCED COUNTY TOWARD YOSEMITE NP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30%-50% ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR 60-70% FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
YOSEMITE. THEREFORE, WHILE CONFIDENCE ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
IS GROWING, VALLEY RAIN STILL HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY SOUTH OF
FRESNO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT THIS WEEKEND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AS PROBABILITIES STILL TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THIS THREAT INCLUDES THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY,
FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA. STORM MOVES OUT AROUND SUNDAY WITH
RIDGING, DRYING AND WARMING DOMINATING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS, ENSEMBLE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN GUSTS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AS SPEEDS REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 30-40 MPH RANGE. SATURDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING WITH
POE OF 55 MPH PLUS WINDS SITTING BETWEEN 50%-65%. WILL UPGRADE
THE ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AS THE MOJAVE SLOPES FAVOR
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BY SUNDAY, A RETURN TO A RIDGE PATTERN WILL
DECREASE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE STORM EXITS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURE BEGIN A
REBOUND AND RISE TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE POE OF MID 80S
JUMPS UP TO A RANGE OF 40%-60% AT THAT TIME. AS A NOTE, POE OF
90 DEGREES SITS AT 30%-40% BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOWS
SLIGHTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES AND IMPLIES CONTINUE WARMING INTO
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE:
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS, LOCAL MVFR IN
LOW CLOUDS THRU 18Z SAT. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 12Z SUN.
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR IN
LOW CLOUDS, RAIN AND SNOW BETWEEN THROUGH 12Z SUN.
ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, VFR WILL
PREVAIL THRU 12Z SUN WITH WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS ALONG
THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ338.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ323-
325>330.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ331-
333>336.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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