351
FXUS66 KHNX 141805
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1105 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 50 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY TODAY
AND A 30 TO 60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY; 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
FOOTHILL AREAS TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES.
2. BREEZY ON TUESDAY OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
MOJAVE SLOPES AS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EXIST OF WIND GUSTS
REACHING 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
2. LOW RH VALUES 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA WITH VALUES 5 TO 10
PERCENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT EARLY THIS WEEK. RH WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
3. 60 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 105
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE KERN DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND; 50 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR INYOKERN AND RIDGECREST TO EXCEED 110 ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE HEAT-WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DESERT EVEN
WITH THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE COVER ACROSS THE WEST, WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEST COAST. SHORT-RANGE
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF
REACHING 103 DEGREES SITS AT A RANGE OF 50%-80%. THESE
PERCENTAGES INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES REACH
WILL ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS MONDAY. THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL ALSO
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRY. TUESDAY WILL START A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AN A AREA OF WEAKNESS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT A NORTHWARD PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK.
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AND PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING. CURRENT
POE STILL LEANING TOWARD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ON TUESDAY AS RANGE
FALLS TO 30%-60% OF REACHING 103 DEGREES. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS
LOWERED, WILL EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 100 DEGREE MARK
RATHER THAN 103 DEGREES. STILL HOT. THEN COMES WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION AND MAX TEMPERATURES DROP
SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES. POE OF 100 DEGREES DROPS BELOW 30% AS
HIGHS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 100 DEGREES UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. EVEN THEN, POE OF 100 DEGREES WILL RANGE FROM 30%-50%,
WHICH WILL LIMIT TRIPLE DIGITS TO THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS
FROM LEMOORE DOWN TO TAFT.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION, RIDGING WILL REBOUND
OVER THE WEST WITH AN AREA OF WEAKNESS LINGERING OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT
WIND DEVELOPMENT AS ENSEMBLE WIND ANALYSIS ONLY FAVORED BREEZY
TO NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH ENSEMBLES ONLY HINTING TOWARD WINDY CONDITIONS, WILL NOT
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE AREA OF
WEAKNESS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF A NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE
A LOW VALUES. ENSEMBLE PRECIP-WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWING MOISTURE TOWARD THE REGION WITH
LIMITED AMOUNTS MAKING IT TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. YET, ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS ALONG THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND A ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWER. ENSEMBLE
INSTABILITY TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG CELL DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY
DOES SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND DYNAMICS FROM ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. YET,
EVEN THEN, LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ON THE DRY
SIDE.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ300>322-324-325-
332.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA/SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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