458
FXUS66 KHNX 011758
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
958 AM PST THU JAN 1 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FLOOD WATCH FROM 10PM WEDNESDAY TO 10PM THURSDAY FOR FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
2. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE GRAPEVINE IN KERN COUNTY UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING.
3. PROBABILITY OF 60-70% OF 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT PORTIONS OF KERN COUNTY. AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
4. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6000 FEET FROM
YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED BELOW 6000 FEET, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY FRESNO COUNTY NORTH.
5. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA, INCLUDING TO TULARE COUNTY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
BELOW 6000 FEET, BUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER KERN
COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST AND AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
AS WELL IN THE VALLEY, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT HERE UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY.
LATEST MRMS ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 0.10-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERTS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-50% CHANCE OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ANOTHER
0.50" BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION ONGOING FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY. THERE
IS ALSO A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HERE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH WILL DIRECT WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
60-80% CHANCE OF 1" OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY IN THE 72 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 12Z TUESDAY, WHICH COULD REINTRODUCE CONCERNS FOR
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION. IN THE FOOTHILLS, THERE WILL BE A
40-70% CHANCE OF 1" OF PRECIPITATION OR MORE. IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, THESE ODDS RISE TO NEAR 100%.
WHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000-9000FT FOR THE NEW YEAR'S DAY
SYSTEM, THEY WILL FALL CLOSER TO 6000FT FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH IN SNOW IMPACTS FROM
THE INITIAL WAVE OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 09Z SATURDAY TO 21Z SUNDAY FOR AREAS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6000 FT FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON,
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED BEYOND SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HANGING AROUND MCE AND MER UNTIL 00Z. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH ALL TAF SITES SITTING IN VFR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG MAY FORM AFTER
06Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. CEILINGS COULD DROP DOWN
TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 1 SM
IF FOG DOES FORM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER 15Z
FRIDAY MORNING.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 1 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS,
MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KERN
(GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ323-326>328.
PUBLIC...SNYDER
AVIATION....SORIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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