765
FXUS66 KHNX 180512
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1012 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BRINGS AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF FIRE DANGER THIS
WEEK.
2. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
WEST SIDE HILLS OF THE COASTAL RANGE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
WITH A MAJOR RISK OF FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO
INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
3. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
FOR SAN LUIS RESERVOIR.
4. PRACTICE SAFETY AROUND AREA LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS, AS
WATER IS STILL RUNNING COLD.
DISCUSSION
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MONDAY FOR THE REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
INSIDE-SLIDER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH, WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORIES AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, INCREASED WINDS (GUSTS 30-40 MPH) HAVE
BEEN LOCALLY OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING NEAR NORTH FORK/BASS LAKE, PER A LOCAL
WEATHER SPOTTER. THIS WILL PICK UP A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
DECREASE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR A 40 MPH
GUST IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA IS ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SJ VALLEY AND ADJACENT WEST SIDE
HILLS/COASTAL RANGES, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS
STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY AND YESTERDAY. THUS, WILL ALLOW THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
A MARKED WARMUP OCCURS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS
HIGHS TOUCH 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RETURN OF 90 DEGREE READINGS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR A TOUCH LOWER UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD READINGS AT LEAST 95 DEGREES
IN BOTH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT FOR THIS
PERIOD. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT HAS A LOW PROBABILITY TO OCCUR IN
THESE AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL LOWER A
BIT MORE WITH THE WARMING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK.
THUS, THE RISK FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD.
OVERALL, A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THIS
COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES COMBINED WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE WEST SIDE HILLS
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR FAST-MOVING
GRASS FIRES ON MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES UNDER 15
PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED AND WILL CONTINUE A MAJOR RISK FOR FIRE
DANGER. ALTHOUGH, WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AND WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED LESS 15 PERCENT
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW. AT LEAST AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER PERSISTS THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION, POOR TO MODERATE
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ298-299.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ337-339.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ579-580.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ300.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ332.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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