585
FXUS66 KLOX 300612
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1112 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/1037 PM.
A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING TWO DAYS OF NOTICEABLE
COOLING TO ALL AREAS. EVEN WITH THE COOLING MOST AREAS WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLOW RETURN OF MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
29/825 PM.
***UPDATE***
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 25 MPH CONTINUED
MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH JUST WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW TOMORROW AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TRENDS, WE ALLOWED THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TO EXPIRE. WITH A VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WHERE WINDS DROP OFF,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MID 40S TO MID 50S.
ALTERNATIVELY, WHERE OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUE (SUCH AS WIND PRONE
FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES) IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER, WITH THE WARMEST COASTAL VALLEYS STILL REACHING NEAR 90
DEGREES.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER
NONDESCRIPT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS PREVAILING FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 25-45 MPH, ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
MAINLY THE SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. FOR
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, WILL STILL ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NEGLIGIBLE. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH WITH WEAK
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY (WEAK
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE LINGERING OFFSHORE WINDS, BUT
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH LESS WIND. ON THURSDAY, WILL
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE COASTS/VALLEYS
(DUE TO RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW), BUT SOME SLIGHT WARMING ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. FOR FRIDAY, ALL AREAS WILL EXHIBIT SOME COOLING
WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SATURDAY, NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR CLOUDS, WILL ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL
BEGIN TO REESTABLISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND ANTICIPATED WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENTS, FLOW WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS. SO, DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STRATUS/FOG THAT DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
29/158 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO, OVERALL, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXPERIENCE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG (BASED ON THE
WHIMS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY, REMAINING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THERE
WILL BE SOME NOTICEABLE COOLING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
A BIT FURTHER OUT, THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. IF ANY RAIN DOES DEVELOP, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT.
AVIATION
30/0600Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THRU WAS A SFC BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 1200 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLGB AND KLAX WITH A 25 PERCENT CHC OF
VLIFR CONDS AT KLGB AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CONDS AT KLAX
FROM 10Z-14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF CAVU TAFS.
KLAX...GOOD IN CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 1/4SM FG VV002 CONDS 10Z-14Z. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIG/VIS
ARRIVING DURING THE 31/06Z-31/12Z TIME FRAME. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
29/757 PM.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH, INCLUDING NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
SEAS WILL BE TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TOP OUT IN THE 10-12 FOOT RANGE. A LULL IN BOTH WIND STRENGTH AND
SEA HEIGHT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
10 TO 15 KT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THIS EVENING
THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PT. MUGU TO WESTERN MALIBU.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES, FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/RM
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...30
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page