120  
FXUS66 KLOX 170306  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
806 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
16/804 PM.  
 
A LIGHT SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WARMER  
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST  
WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
 
16/805 PM.  
 
***UPDATE***  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,  
INCLUDING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT. A HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,  
WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING SW OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTER WILL BUILD INLAND THROUGH OREGON, SETTLING INTO THE GREAT  
BASIN BY 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER  
NEVADA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SW  
CALIFORNIA COAST, WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS -3.0 MB FOR THE LAX TO DAGGETT  
GRADIENT AT 5 AM, SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS  
DEPICTED. WITH ONLY LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT THE EVENT  
TO BE SUB- ADVISORY, HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS  
COULD OCCUR IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SANTA ANA WINDS.  
OVER THE VALLEYS EXPECT PEAK GUSTS TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH 35 TO  
40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF LA  
AND VENTURA COUNTIES, AND THE WESTERN SANTA MONICAS.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR  
THE COASTS AND VALLEYS, 40 TO 50 FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND  
DIPPING INTO THE 30S OVER WIND SHELTERED INTERIOR AREAS. HIGHS ON  
FRIDAY WILL BE UP ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY'S  
HIGHS. THIS MEANS MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 50S TO  
60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION**  
 
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, A DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING HOURS AND  
GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO, WITH  
THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONCERN  
FOR ADVISORY- LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. OVERALL, CLEAR  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STRATUS  
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE  
MORNING HOURS, RISING THICKNESSES AND LIMITED MARINE INFLUENCE  
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY  
SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN  
WITH PERSISTENCE/SLIGHT WARMING FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS.  
   
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
 
16/115 PM.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC  
AGREEMENT. BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES, BUT NOTHING  
THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO  
SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE  
WEST COAST ON THURSDAY.  
 
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO ENTRAIN ANY MOISTURE AS  
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCES FOR ANY  
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%). HOWEVER,  
THE LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS AND THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, THE  
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN DEPTH AND  
AREAL COVERAGE. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS/FOG, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN  
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT  
A GENERAL COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME  
SLIGHT WARMING IN SOME INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
16/2321Z.  
 
AT 2237Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 800 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE  
INVERSION WAS AT 1900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 C.  
 
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KPRB.  
FOR KPRB, THERE IS A 40% CHC FOR VFR CONDITIONS, BUT IF CIGS FORM  
THERE IS A SIMILAR CHANCE FOR 1/4SM.  
 
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS (UP TO 20 KTS) MAY SURFACE AT KSBP FROM 06Z  
TO 15Z FRIDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KSBP,KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, AND  
KVNY THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS REMAIN ALOFT AND DO  
NOT SURFACE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
OVER ANY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  
 
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO WIND  
ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.  
 
KBUR....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE (ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS  
TERRAIN) IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN 2000 FT OF THE  
SURFACE WILL PEAK IN 30-40 KNOT RANGE (15Z TO 21Z FRIDAY), BUT  
THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURFACE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
16/804 PM.  
 
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS  
AND OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
(SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM  
POINT SAL SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING, WITH WINDS STRONGEST NEAR PT CONCEPTION & PT ARGUELLO.  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS  
NEARSHORE FROM CAYUCOS POINT/MORRO BAY SOUTH TO PISMO BEACH EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE  
FOR SCA CONDITIONS ROUGHLY 50 NM FROM SHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
LOCALIZED NEARSHORE N-NE SCA LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR  
AND POINT DUME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (40% CHANCE).  
LOWER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FOCUSED  
MORE AROUND POINT DUME. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE WINDS,  
ANY CHANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS VERY LOW.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING  
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR  
ZONES 670-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE  
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/CILIBERTI  
AVIATION...BLACK  
MARINE...BLACK/LEWIS  
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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