023
FXUS66 KLOX 051252
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
552 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
05/1251 AM.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS AND
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
START TO WEAKEN MONDAY AND CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
05/221 AM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DISRUPTED THE MARINE
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN FEWER COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND COASTAL VALLEYS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DECREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS REESTABLISHING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT MAY CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT, HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK,
HOWEVER COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT, THE CLOUDS
WILL LESSEN IN EXTENT EACH NIGHT
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECTING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT THAN ON SATURDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WARMING MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY, RISING
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY. SOME
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY, AND WILL BE LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY, ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS, ALONG WITH SUNDOWNER WINDS
EACH EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
05/232 AM.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ALOFT. MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF HYDRATING FLUIDS, CHECK ON
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND/OR WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONER, AND NEVER
LEAVE ANYONE IN A CAR WITHOUT AIR-CONDITIONING AS LETHAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE REACHED INSIDE A CAR WITHIN A MATTER OF
MINUTES.
AT THIS POINT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD, WHEN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK. THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER NEXT
WEEKEND, PROVIDING SOME MINOR RELIEF TO END THE WEEK. THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND LIKELY BEYOND - WITH CPC OUTLOOKS
CONTINUING TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEEK 2.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WARM UP, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK EACH DAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT- TERM
DISCUSSION, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS INCLUDING THE SAN
FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS.
AVIATION
05/1251Z.
AT 1215Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 11300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FT DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KWJF & KPMD).
LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAFS THROUGH 16Z SUN, THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE DISRUPTING THE FORMATION
OF THE MARINE LAYER, CAUSING LOW CLOUDS TO STRUGGLE TO FORM, OR
SCATTER AND REFORM. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF NO
IFR/MVFR CIGS AT SITES WITH THOSE CIGS FORECAST, AND A 40% CHANCE
OF IFR/MVFR CONDS FORMING AT SITES WITHOUT THOSE CIGS FORECAST
THROUGH 16Z SUN. OTHERWISE, TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS AND CIG HEIGHTS +/- 300 FT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
BKN008-010 CIGS THROUGH 16Z SUN. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY
BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
OF BKN005-010 THROUGH 15Z SUN.
MARINE
05/154 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS A GREATER THAN 80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, AND ACROSS ALL THE OUTER WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY
THIS EVENING, AND START TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATER NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY, 70% CHANCE TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY, AND A 60% CHANCE ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND START TO SUBSIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO 80%
CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEREAFTER. LOCAL
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 21 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HOURS NEAR POINT DUME AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5
AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND/CILIBERTI/ROSSI
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...SF/KL
SYNOPSIS...ROSSI/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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