030
FXUS66 KLOX 152130
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
15/802 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT 7. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR. A COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
15/227 PM.
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY, AND WHILE NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE,
PEOPLE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE INCREASED RISKS OF HEAT ILLNESS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING FATHER'S DAY PLANS. MAKE SURE
TO DRINK PLENTY OF HYDRATING FLUIDS AND SEEK SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE,
IF OUTDOORS.
589 DAM HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA, STEMMING FROM A 594
DAM UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE
TRENDS FROM THE NORTH COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHT RISING HEIGHTS AND
GOOD CLEARING OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO
THE HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS (WESTERN SAN
FERNANDO, AV, ETC), 80S TO 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST (AND INCLUDING
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THANKS TO SUNDOWNER WINDS), AND
HIGH 60S TO 70S AT THE COASTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SW SBA COAST, WITH WIND
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THE SOUTHWESTERN SBA COAST AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF ONSHORE TRENDS AS WELL AS
LOWERING HEIGHTS ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA SOUTH
COAST). A COOLING AIRMASS AND AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE WILL TEAM UP
TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES. EVEN WITH THIS COOLING, MOST
MAX TEMPS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST, WHERE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE DELAYED TO THE EVENING AND NEAR 90 DEGREES (SIMILAR
TO TODAY) THANKS TO SUNDOWNER WINDS.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, THE STRONGEST NORTH PUSH WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT WITH WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR SW SBA. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SE SBA COAST, THE I-5
CORRIDOR, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, SBA
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WEAK TROFFING MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THAT MUCH. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST
WHERE THE LACK OF NORTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN 8 TO 12 DEGREES OF
COOLING.
ON WEDNESDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SUGGESTS A TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, ALL THE LREF CLUSTERS AND THE ECMWF
SUGGEST A QUICK, WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY (AND THIS IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH).
THOUGH AGAIN, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS, WITH A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH COASTAL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
AND VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW, THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL EXPAND BACK INTO
THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF SBA COUNTY, AS WELL AS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
15/229 PM.
NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER
THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY BREAKS DOWN, WEAK TROFFING WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS, AND MOSTLY LOWER
AND MID 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.
LOOK FOR A TYPICAL JUNE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN
TO DEVELOP COVERING THE COASTS AND MOST VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE
SLOW CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY THE BEACHES, WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLEARING AT SEVERAL WEST FACING BEACHES.
THE STRONG ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS, ESPECIALLY THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY.
AVIATION
15/1734Z.
AT 1652Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, AND KWJF.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF FOR KSBP. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KSMO BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE KLAX REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY
BE AS EARLY AS 10Z. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE AN EAST WIND COMPONENT
REACH 8 KTS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
15/110 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND INNER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. LULLS IN WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER WATERS WHERE A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEAS WILL ALSO APPROACH 10 FEET AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
SCA LEVEL WINDS MAY REACH EASTERN PORTIONS EACH DAY, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL MAY ALSO OCCUR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE INNER WATERS OFF THE LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED WNW SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR MALIBU AND THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TODAY AND MONDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 354-362-366-367. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...LUND/RORKE
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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