220
FXUS66 KLOX 261858
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1158 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
26/929 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT MARINE
LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY. A
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
26/941 AM.
***UPDATE***
EXPECTING A VERY SIMILAR DAY TODAY AS YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS AROUND 1500-2000 FEET AND THERE IS A 2MB ONSHORE FLOW WITH
A NEUTRAL TREND. THE ONLY DEVIATION TO THAT MAY BE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIAS AND THAT IS CREATING A FASTER WARMUP
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH CHANGE
TODAY FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
YESTERDAY. TOMORROW THE ENSEMBLE GRADIENTS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND WHICH MAY RESULT IN A VERY MINOR WARMUP BUT
PROBABLY LESS THAN 3 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AND STILL EXPECTING A
SOLID MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM MORRO BAY SOUTH. BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WARMING SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
AND MUCH LESS MARINE LAYER.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE PUSHED INTO THE VALLEYS OF VENTURA
OVERNIGHT, BUT ACTUALLY RETREATED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF L.A.
THANKS TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RETREAT BACK TOWARDS
THE OCEAN THIS MORNING, THESE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO 80S, WITH THE
INTERIOR/WARMEST VALLEYS WARMING UP A TINY BIT AND PUSHING INTO
THE 90S. THANKS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW, THE REGION WILL SEE
SOME WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PEAKING SATURDAY, AND PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM
ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING THEM
TO QUITE REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THESE WINDS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CHANCE OF SOME BROKEN TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
26/314 AM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES START TO COOL OFF
ON SUNDAY, WITH AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL FOR COASTAL AREAS
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON, IF NOT SOONER.
THE COOLING TREND STARTS TO RAMP UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKING AT A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN LOCALLY, ROUGHLY A 60 TO 80% CHANCE, THOUGH
TIMING AND AMOUNTS STILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE FROM MODEL RUN TO
MODEL RUN. MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST AROUND 0.5 INCHES
OF RAIN, ALONG WITH THE AI MODELS AROUND THAT SAME BALLPARK..
TIMING COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE MAJORITY IS STILL TUESDAY.
AVIATION
26/1856Z.
AT 1816Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TAFS FOR KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. CIG HGT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
200 FT AND VSBY OFF BY 1 SM AT TIMES. HIGH CLOUDS MAY CAUSE LOW
CLOUD CIGS TO SCATTER AND REFORM.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF V/LIFR CONDITIONS 07Z-15Z FRI AT KSMX.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS MAY SCATTER AND REFORM.
LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY SCATTER AND
REFORM. LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 08Z FRI.
MARINE
26/1157 AM.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. LOCAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE
OF THE CENTRAL COAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL VERY LIKELY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/LUND
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...HALL/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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