461
FXUS66 KLOX 071103
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
303 AM PST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
07/1212 AM.
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE LOS ANGELES COAST.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
07/1239 AM.
BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AN BEYOND. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AND HGTS WILL RISE FROM 582 DAM TODAY
TO 586 DAM ON TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, PEAKING ON TUESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE KLAX-KLGB
AREA THIS MORNING AND A MORE LIKELY CHC (~70 PERCENT) CHANCE ON
MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS EACH MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW
INCREASES EACH DAY AND PEAKS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS NO CHC OF
ADVISORY LEVEL GUST TODAY AND MONDAY BUT LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE SANTA
LUCIA RANGE AND THE WESTERN LA VLYS AND EASTERN VTA VLYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. RISING HGTS, OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SUNNY SKIES WILL ALL COMBINE TO BRING 2 TO 4 LOCALLY 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS WILL RISE FROM
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S TODAY TO THE THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY
TUESDAY. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE WINDIER AREAS, BUT THE
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
07/300 AM.
THE GFS AND EC AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL AGREE THAT THE
RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
DOES WEAKEN SOME AND HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL DURING THE 3 DAY
PERIOD. THE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH PEAKED ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE PERIOD.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON WINDS THEY WILL NOT BE OF
MUCH CONSEQUENCE.
STILL THIS FORECAST IS ALL ABOUT THE TEMPS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE CSTS OF LA/VTA COUNTY AS THE RELAXED OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF COOLING ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
MAX TEMPS RISING ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY'S ALREADY
SUPER WARM TEMPS. ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL COOL 1 TO 2 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH RELAXES. DESPITE THIS COOLING, MOST MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL END UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL (4 TO 8 FOR THE
NEARSHORE AREA SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION). FRIDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S.
NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN/FCST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
IN GENERAL THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER. SOME MDLS SHOW A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER
AS WELL. SOME COOLING EACH DAY IS LIKELY, BUT HOW MUCH IS STILL A
BIT OF A MYSTERY.
AVIATION
07/1019Z.
AROUND 0815Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX, BUT THERE
WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 2100 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 17 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR VALLEY AND DESERT
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER 08Z MONDAY.
KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 16Z, AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY. ANY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
07/218 AM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS VERSUS SEAS.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE IS A HIGH TO
LIKELY (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (30 TO
50 PERCENT) OF NORTHEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA THROUGH
SANTA MONICA AND FROM PISMO BEACH TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...BLACK/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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