924  
FXUS66 KLOX 021543  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
843 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
02/258 AM.  
 
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COAST AND  
VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WILL BECOME LIMITED TO COASTAL  
AREAS THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR INLAND  
AREAS WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
 
02/841 AM.  
 
THE MARINE INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS NEAR OR JUST OVER 3000  
FT DEEP WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WELL INLAND TO THE INTERIOR VLYS  
AND COASTAL SLOPES. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BACK TO THE  
COAST BY MIDDAY WITH SOME BEACHES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU  
THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG  
THIS AFTERNOON (NAM FCST LAX-DAG +9.4 MB AT 00Z) WHICH WILL HELP  
TO BRING GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY S TO W WINDS ESPECIALLY TO THE  
FOOTHILLS, MTNS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS  
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
TODAY, AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. THE  
WARMEST VLYS AND LOWER MTNS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S, EXCEPT AROUND 90 IN THE ANTELOPE VLY.  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY  
GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT, WITH H5  
HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM AROUND 583-585 DM TODAY TO AROUND 590 DM ON  
SAT.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP TO LOWER THE MARINE INVERSION OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOWN  
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INVERSION DEPTH SHOULD DROP TO AROUND  
1500-2000 FT OR SO TONIGHT, AND FROM SURFACE-BASED N OF POINT  
CONCEPTION TO AROUND 1000 FT S OF POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT. LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD AFFECT THE COAST AND MOST ADJACENT VLYS  
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, WITH A LESSER EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG  
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST, AND ONLY MINOR INTRUSION  
INTO THE VLYS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU SAT.  
 
W-E ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU SAT AS WELL, WITH  
EVEN SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS FOR SMX-BFL ESPECIALLY BY EARLY SAT. THE  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY  
GUSTY S-W AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS THRU SAT. OFFSHORE  
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST AS WELL BY THE NAM FOR  
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND  
INTERIOR VTU COUNTY.  
 
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO HEAT UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS BY SAT. HIGHS IN THE  
WARMEST VLYS AND LOWER MTNS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 FRI,  
EXCEPT 90S IN THE ANTELOPE VLY, AND IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ON SAT  
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS OVER THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VLYS AND  
ANTELOPE VLY.  
   
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
 
02/256 AM.  
 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WHILE TO THE SOUTH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE  
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXPAND IN BOTH DIRECTIONS  
TOWARDS NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC SUNDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO GET NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH AS  
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH STARTS TO CUT INTO THE HIGH.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WITH HIGHS  
WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS VALLEYS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING  
PASO ROBLES REACHING 100 AND ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT  
ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY PEAKING AROUND 102 DEGREES. COASTAL  
AREAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER  
PRESENCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG SOME  
COASTAL AREAS. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW COULD KEEP THE CENTRAL  
COAST CLEAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND LOMPOC AND VANDENBERG AFB EACH  
MORNING. HIGHS WILL START TO TREND A TAD COOLER ON MONDAY, WITH  
A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
TO GET PUSHED TO THE SE WHILE THE TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE  
CENTRAL COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL TUE/WED. THERE WILL  
BE A CHANCE FOR SUNDOWNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY THE WESTERN  
PORTIONS BETWEEN GAVIOTA- REFUGIO, AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW  
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COUPLE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOVING  
OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY  
BRING US MORE SOUTHERLY SWELLS BUT FOR NOW THE PATTERN ISN'T  
FAVORABLE FOR GETTING ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LOCALLY, AS IT  
STAYS TO THE EAST INTO ARIZ AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PAC STAYING  
WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
02/1229Z.  
 
AT 12Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 3100 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE  
INVERSION WAS AT 4100 FT WITH A TEMP OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS AND UP TO  
THE COASTAL SLOPES. CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR  
NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, AND IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.  
CLEARING WILL BE RATHER SLOW TODAY, BY LATE MORNING IN THE  
VALLEYS AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE COASTAL PLAIN, EXCEPT MID TO  
LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SOME BEACHES. IN FACT IT MAY NOT CLEAR AT SOME  
BEACHES.  
 
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT, BUT  
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY  
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CUYAMA VALLEY, THE FAR INTERIOR  
VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.  
CONDS WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY MVFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR NORTH OF PT  
CONCEPTION AND IN THE FOOTHILLS  
 
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE  
THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT AT ALL OR AT LEAST UNTIL 23Z OR  
00Z.  
 
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30%CHANCE  
THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AS LATE AS 21Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
02/501 AM.  
 
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL  
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT MORNING. SCA LEVEL WINDS  
(AND EVENTUALLY SEAS) ARE LIKELY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY,  
EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER  
WATERS ZONE (PZZ676). THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS  
LATE SUN THRU MON.  
 
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SAT MORNING.  
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY SUN AND MON.  
 
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, SCA CONDS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED THROUGH SUN MORNING. SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL, AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS SUN AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MON.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
02/510 AM.  
 
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH ELEVATED SURF ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES AS  
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE  
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE LATEST SWELL MODELS INDICATE LONG-PERIOD  
SOUTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
AND PEAKING SATURDAY AROUND 3-4 FEET AT 17-18 SECONDS. THIS SHOULD  
BRING ELEVATED SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET  
ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AND  
NEAR RINCON POINT IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. EXPOSED SOUTH FACING  
BEACHES ON THE CENTRAL COAST COULD HAVE SURF OF 6 TO 9 FEET. A  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED, IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE PEAK OF THE EVENT IS  
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 34-35-39>41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...NONE.  
 

 
 
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).  
 
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS  
ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN  
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WHICH MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING  
CONDITIONS. LARGE HIGH TIDES MAY RESULT IN TIDAL OVERFLOW IN  
VULNERABLE LOW LYING AREAS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...SIRARD/KAPLAN  
AVIATION...DB  
MARINE...DB  
BEACHES...DB  
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
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