942  
FXUS66 KLOX 272321  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
421 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
27/214 PM.  
 
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT AND DEEP  
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING  
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CLEARING WILL  
CONTINUE AS WELL. LOCAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING ACROSS  
COAST AND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
 
27/158 PM.  
 
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER CLEARING IN SOME AREAS TODAY, POSSIBLY A  
RESULT OF A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME SUBSIDENCE  
GENERATED BY RIDGING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW  
SOME ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS THE WARMER  
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM THE RIDGE PUSHES DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS.  
IN THEORY THIS SHOULD HELP SKIES CLEAR AT LEAST AS MUCH AS THEY  
HAVE TODAY AND LIKELY A LITTLE MORE. CLOUDS HAVE YET TO CLEAR THE  
LONG BEACH AREA TODAY AND THE PV PENINSULA, AND SANTA BARBARA HAS  
BEEN CLOUDY SINCE THE STRATUS FILLED IN THERE THIS MORNING, SO  
NOT EVERYWHERE HAD A SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SIMILAR  
TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE OF  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT IT'S STILL FAR FROM THE CONDITIONS OF LAST  
WEEKEND AND CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY ARE NO MORE THAN  
10% AT BEST. MOST LIKELY THE BEST WE'LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS OVER  
THE HIGHER PEAKS.  
 
THE MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO START DEEPENING AGAIN MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES CLOSER, COOLING  
THE AIR ALOFT AND PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER BACK UP. COULD SEE A  
RETURN TO PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER COASTAL  
SLOPES. SLOWER CLEARING AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED AS WELL.  
   
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
 
27/215 PM.  
 
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORNING DRIZZLE  
ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW  
COOLING TREND, MORE SO INLAND THAN AT THE COAST. FOLLOWING THE  
UPPER LOW PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A SLOW RECOVERY OF HEIGHTS ALOFT  
RESULTING IN A VERY MINOR WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS SEASONABLY STRONG, 8-10MB TO THE EAST EACH  
DAY SO AT THE VERY LEAST WE'RE LOOKING AT A LATER THAN USUAL  
CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND AFTERNOON TEMPS THAT ARE STILL  
3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL CLUSTERS  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA, WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MEMBERS SHOWING  
BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
27/2321Z.  
 
AT 2215Z, THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 3300 FEET.  
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 5500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF  
16 DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TO ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY SITES OVERNIGHT,  
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RETURN (COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF  
CURRENT FORECASTS).  
 
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR  
CIGS COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT 07Z FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT  
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.  
 
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR  
CIGS COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT 09Z FORECAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
27/150 PM.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.  
 
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS.  
 
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL AND SOUTH OF POINT  
CONCPETION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
27/150 PM.  
 
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE  
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL  
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE  
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND A BEACH HAZARDS  
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...MW  
AVIATION...RAT  
MARINE...SWEET/RAT  
BEACHES...SWEET/RAT  
SYNOPSIS...MW  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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