593
FXUS66 KLOX 260538
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1038 PM PDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
25/1036 PM.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW, WITH A GROWING
POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
25/858 PM.
***UPDATE***
TEMPERATURES TRENDED ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COASTS AS
WITH WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOKING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXPECTING NEAR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS EACH MORNING,
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTY,
SUB-ADIVSORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE WESTERN SANTA YNEZ RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COASTAL
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
NEAR NEUTRAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NIGHT TO MORNING LIGHT
OFFSHORE BREEZES FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS TO AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE ONSHORE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 70 TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST AREAS. THE
DRY AIR MASS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENING FRONT WILL SET UP
DRY NORTHWEST TO ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FOR MOST SAVE SOME SOUTH FACING FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS/COAST SUCH AS THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST WHERE
THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELAY THE
COOLING TREND.
NIGHT-TO-MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A GOOD (70% CHANCE) OF
RETURNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO OTHER COASTAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY THE LA
COUNTY COAST) AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
25/1240 PM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
DIGGING TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST. LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE.
EITHER WAY CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, CONTRIBUTING TO
CONTINUED COOLING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE POTENTIAL
WEEKEND STORM. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING, IT STILL REMAINS
BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SOMETIME
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY, AGAIN FOCUSED SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN) OR
SUNDAY. WE HAVE A DECENT (30-60% CHANCE) SHOT OF A MODERATE STORM
(0.5-1.5 INCHES EXCEPT 1.5-3 INCHES SOUTH FACING
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS) AND SLIGHT (10-20%) CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM
(2+ INCHES EXCEPT 4+ INCHES MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS). ODDS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS ARE HIGHEST FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES,
LOWEST SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES) DUE TO THE BEST
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE STORM FOCUSED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG STORM SCENARIO.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH, ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM.
AGAIN JUST TO REPEAT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS TIME PERIOD
AND MAY REMAIN LOW, ESPECIALLY ON FORECAST DETAILS, FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE BEHIND NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
26/0536Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAFS FOR KSBA,
KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF.
FOR KSBP THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS, AND A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/VLIFR CONDS DO NOT AFFECT KSMX OR KPRB.
FOR KLAX, KLGB AND KSMO, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS 08Z-16Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF
2SM BR OVC004 CONDITIONS 12Z-17Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
MARINE
25/926 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A
50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE.
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A WIDE
RANGE OF OUTCOMES, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF A 12-24
HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND STEP SEAS.
BEACHES
25/1227 PM.
VERY HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.0 FEET (ROUGHLY 1.0-1.5 FEET
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER ALL COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE
THE HIGHEST ON RECORD (CURRENT RECORD AT SAN PEDRO IS 7.93 FEET
SET ON JAN 10, 2005 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1924).
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY PURELY BASED ON THE HIGH TIDES.
WHILE THESE TIDES MIGHT BE THE HIGHEST OF ALL-TIME, SIMILAR
EXTREME TIDES IN THE PAST TELL US THAT COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD
EXPECT SHALLOW FLOODING OF HARBOR WALKWAYS, BEACH PARKING LOTS AND
BIKE PATHS. WITH SWELLS AND SURF ON THE LOWER-END DURING THESE
EXTREME TIDES (2-3 FEET), THE THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE/DAMAGING
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE
LITTLE-TO-NO SANDY BEACH LEFT AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN WATER DAMAGE.
WITH THAT SAID, THESE IS A SMALL CHANGE FOR MORE ELEVATED SURF ON
SOUTH-FACING SHORES AROUND WEDNESDAY AS WAVES FROM A SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE STORM ARRIVE. THE MAJORITY OF COMPUTER PROJECTIONS KEEP
THIS WAVE ENERGY ON THE SMALL SIDE, BUT A COUPLE ARE A LITTLE
LARGER.
WITH ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN PLAY, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR TARGETED COASTAL FLOODING WARNINGS IF A LARGER SWELL
DEVELOPS AND PRODUCES ELEVATED SURF ON TOP OF THE VERY HIGH
TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MUNROE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...RAT/CILIBERTI
BEACHES...RK/RAT
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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