168
FXUS66 KLOX 050331
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
831 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
04/831 PM.
A MAJOR AND LONG LASTING HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER EACH DAY AND
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE RACHEL.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
04/828 PM.
***UPDATE***
IT WAS YET ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
90S TO LOW 100S. THREE LOCATIONS BROKE THEIR DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS: BURBANK, CAMARILLO, AND NWS OXNARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, AND LOCALLY IN THE 80S FOR SOME
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE TRICKY TO FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THOUGH CURRENT
THOUGHT IS THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. IF THEY DO
DECIDE TO PUSH OVER THE LAND OVERNIGHT, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED DUE TO HOW SHALLOW THE MARINE LAYER IS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TOMORROW, WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING UNDERNEATH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE AND NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE. A FEW
CALENDER DAY TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 90S TO AROUND 105 FOR
MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WHICH IS ABOUT
15 TO 27 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN THE
90S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL (ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WILL
SEE A SMALL COOLING TREND GOING FORWARD DUE TO A INCREASE IN THE
SEA BREEZE AS A RESULT IN SMALL WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, EXCEPT EVEN
80S IN SOME MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL BY A FEW
MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
MAKE 100+ DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND A PEAK IN
TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL AREAS, AND THUS THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY THE FORECAST ZONE DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COAST HAS
BEEN ADDED INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
THE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACH.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
04/229 PM.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM, THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY,
WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION,
AWAY FORM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN WILL
SEE IMPACTS OF A TEPIDLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE EACH DAY AND
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. BY THURSDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO COOL
TO BETWEEN 82 TO 90 DEGREES RIGHT AT THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THAT AT LEAST SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST A
20-30% CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE TRACKS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. SOME INCREASING SWELLS FROM
RACHEL ARE ALSO EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
05/0104Z.
AT 0040Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 900 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEG C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KSBP/KSMX.
CHC OF V/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 05/08Z-16Z: KSBP (15%) & KSMX (30%).
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN BELOW 7-8 KTS AFTER 04/19Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
04/728 PM.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
GUSTS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, OFF THE COAST OF POINT DUME,
AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 30% CHANCE
OF SCA GUSTS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND POINT CONCEPTION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
04/745 PM.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL IMPACT THE LA/VTA COASTLINE
INCLUDING CATALINA ISLAND. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED STARTING 4 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 11 PM FRIDAY. AN UPGRADE TO
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND/OR HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THESE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. REFER TO CFWLOX FOR MAIN DETAILS.
INITIALLY, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE SE (150-160) TARGETING
AREAS LIKE LONG BEACH AND CATALINA ISLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS RACHEL CONTINUES WESTWARD, THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY (170-190) LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY TARGETING
AREAS LIKE ZUMA. UNLIKE PREVIOUS EVENTS, MORNING AND EVENING HIGH
TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR IN HEIGHT RANGING 6.5 - 7.0 FT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK):
A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SOUTHERLY
SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
VERY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE, AS SWELL FROM SUPER
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS
SHOW A SWELL OF 2 FEET AT 25 SECONDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST,
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET AT 20-22 SECONDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SWELL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BOTH HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING.
EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DECREASE BY A BIT MORE
THAN 0.5 FT BUT THE MORNING TIDES WILL INCREASE A BIT TO 7.2 FT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED SURF & COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS TARGETING AREAS FROM THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA TO
VENTURA, FOCUSED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
341>345-347-348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/KL
AVIATION...KL/CC
MARINE...CILIBERTI
BEACHES...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...SCHOENFELD/KL/CILIBERTI
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page