616  
FXUS66 KLOX 111122  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
422 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
10/456 PM.  
 
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST EACH  
MORNING, OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN LOS  
ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
 
11/214 AM.  
 
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER  
CENTRAL/EASTERN COLORADO WITH A LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE, ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST  
WITH SOME INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
FORECAST-WISE, PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE "SCREAMING" MESSAGE AS THE  
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINOR. WITH THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE AREA, FORCING A CONTINUED EYE TOWARDS POSSIBLE MONSOONAL  
ISSUES. AT THIS TIME, MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SO, NO  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY  
SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE A "TOUCH" OVER THE  
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.  
 
AS FOR MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT  
CHANGES IN THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION OR AREAL COVERAGE OF STRATUS  
AND FOG. SO, WILL KEEP WITH THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG  
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTH OF POINT  
CONCEPTION, CHANCES OF STRATUS FORMATION ARE MUCH LOWER AND WILL  
KEEP THESE AREAS STRATUS-FREE THROUGH SATURDAY (FOR NOW). LOOKING  
AT HREF DATA, THE IDEA OF STRATUS REMAINING CONFINED TO AREAS  
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LOOKS GOOD.  
 
AS FOR WINDS, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW END ADVISORY-LEVEL  
SUNDOWNER WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA  
YNEZ MOUNTAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING  
OF THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHT WHICH  
COULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTH WINDS. FUTURE  
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE, MODERATE  
ONSHORE GRADIENTS EACH AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE LOCALLY GUSTY  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS.  
 
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ONLY MINOR  
FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A  
MINOR WARMING TREND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH  
NEAR PERSISTENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL VALLEYS.  
   
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
 
11/214 AM.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC  
AGREEMENT. MAIN FEATURE WILL REMAIN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FOR  
SUNDAY/MONDAY, THIS HIGH REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US THEN  
WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER IDAHO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  
 
FORECAST-WISE, MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
THE POTENTIAL FOR MONSOONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES, CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY  
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL (CONFINED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN  
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS). HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES  
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS  
EASTERN SECTIONS. BASED ON NBM POPS, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SECTIONS OF LA COUNTY WITH  
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY, MODELS ALWAYS  
MUST BE INGESTED WITH A FEW GRAINS OF SALT WITH RESPECT TO  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SO, THE AREAL COVERAGE  
OF THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
OTHER THAN THE MONSOONAL CONCERNS, THE FORECAST WILL BE REMAIN  
RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS COVERAGE MAY INCREASE  
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY,  
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD.  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS  
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
11/1121Z.  
 
AT 11Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE  
INVERSION WAS AT 2300 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES C.  
 
LOW CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE WESTERN  
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY, WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS. ELSEWHERE CONDS WERE  
VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID  
MORNING, EXCEPT LATE MORNING NEAR THE BEACHES.  
 
EXPECT SIMILAR LOW CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT.  
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS  
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TONIGHT. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT WILL BE 5 KT  
OR LESS.  
 
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
11/412 AM.  
 
IN THE OUTER WATERS, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS  
WITH TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, AND MOST LIKELY  
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A 30%-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS  
AT TIMES FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.  
 
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE  
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY THRU MON.  
 
IN THE SBA CHANNEL, THERE IS 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS  
WESTERN PORTION EACH DAY THRU SUN. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD  
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.  
 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA  
CONDS FROM ANACAPA ISLAND TO NEAR MALIBU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS THRU SAT. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
11/414 AM.  
 
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT, HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES  
IN THE EVENING HOURS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG WITH  
MINOR BEACH EROSION. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET  
MAY ADD TO THE TIDAL OVERFLOW POTENTIAL. THE FOCUS OF THE TIDAL  
OVERFLOW WILL MAINLY BE ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND  
VENTURA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN  
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM THIS EVENING THRU LATE FRI NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 87-354-362-364. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9  
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR  
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...DB  
MARINE...DB  
BEACHES...DB  
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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