781
FXUS66 KLOX 230536
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
936 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/659 PM.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
22/735 PM.
***UPDATE***
SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND PASSES. NORTH
WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE AFFECTING SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE LOWERING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE COAST AND
VALLEYS, AND 30S FURTHER INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS (AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHUTS OFF)
AND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR THE INTERIOR.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OTHERWISE, A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN NOW THROUGH THANKSGIVING
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRENDING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS, OR AREAS WITHIN 15 OR SO MILES FROM
THE COAST, WILL BE TRENDING COOLER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. AND BY MONDAY (IF NOT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY) SOME COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR THE VALLEYS AND
OTHER INTERIOR AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER.
STARTING TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT
ALOFT FOR ANY GUSTY WINDS BUT THE DIMINISHED ONSHORE PUSH WILL
ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
22/202 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. AT THIS TIME THE
CHANCES FOR STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS ARE VERY LOW AS THERE IS LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT. AND IN FACT THE CURRENT ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT MOST NEXT WEEK. SO LIKE SO MANY
THANKSGIVINGS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A
MILD TO WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES, UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES, AND LOTS OF TURKEY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TREND FARTHER INLAND WITH
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHAT AT ONE POINT LOOKED LIKE ANOTHER
STRONG STORM FOR CALIFORNIA HAS TURNED MUCH DRIER AS THE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE STORM'S TRAJECTORY FARTHER EAST. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HANGING ONTO RAIN CHANCES BUT EACH RUN
SEEMS TO TREND DRIER.
AVIATION
23/0533Z.
AT 0454Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A WEAK
SURFACED BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 20 C.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A
30-40% CHC OF NO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KPRB. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSMX AFTER 02Z MONDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF
EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 7-8 KTS FROM 12Z TO 17Z SUNDAY.
IFR CIGS AROUND 008 POSSIBLE (60% CHC) AFTER 06Z MONDAY, WITH
ARRIVAL TIMES (+/- 3 HOURS) FROM CURRENT FORECAST IF OCCURS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. 15-20KT WINDS MAY SFC
THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
22/809 PM.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) SEAS WITH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY S OF PT.
CONCEPTION) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR WATERS 30NM FROM SHORE. MODERATE
CHANCES FOR A COMBINATION OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS TO RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS NEARSHORE
FROM VENTURA TO POINT DUME ON WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 645-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/SCHOENFELD/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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