794
FXUS66 KLOX 041122
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
322 AM PST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
04/227 AM.
A MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. COLD CONDITIONS WILL
BRING FREEZING CONDITIONS TO SOME AREAS EACH MORNING TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND PEAK NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
04/243 AM.
A LOW END SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS JUST STARTING. CURRENTLY THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 MB OFFSHORE AND WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MB LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOL AIR ADVECTION TO HELP THE
WINDS ALONG. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR (10 MILES OR SO AROUND A LINE FROM THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY TO THE WESTERN SANTA MONICAS). THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH ALONG THE WINDIEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
AWAY FROM THE WINDS, THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FAR INTERIOR INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VLY. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE ANTELOPE VLY
FOOTHILLS.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM MOST AREAS 1 TO 3 DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE 4 TO 5 DEGREES OF WARMING WILL
OCCUR. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL COOL SOME AS COOL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM
THE HIGH DESERT. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL COME IN NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREAS UNDER A WARNING
THIS MORNING.
NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECASTS.
AN UPPER HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST AND HGTS WILL PUSH UP TO
582 DAM. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE WEAKER THAN
TODAY, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING, BUT WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT AND
WEAKER GRADIENTS THEY WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING TWO DAYS OF COOLING TO MOST OF
THE CSTS AND LOWER VLYS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WARMS UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HGTS. BY SATURDAY THE MTNS AND INTERIOR
WILL WILL END UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEARSHORE AREA,
HOWEVER, WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER NORMAL.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
04/303 AM.
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND ENSEMBLES. RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. HGTS WILL INCREASE TO AT
LEAST 586 DAM BY MID WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD ELIMINATE
OR AT LEAST GREATLY MINIMIZE THE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. THE LONG
BEACH AREA AND WESTERN SBA COUNTY STAND THE GREATEST CHC OF SEEING
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
THAT LEAVES THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT
FOR THE XTND FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THREE DAYS OF
WARMING EVERYWHERE WITH JUST A LITTLE NEARSHORE COOLING WEDNESDAY
AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS SOME. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE TU
AND WED TEMPS AS USUALLY THE BLENDED ALGORITHMS ARE SLOW TO CATCH
ON TO EVENTS THAT ARE WELL OUT OF THE NORM.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING
EACH DAY EXCEPT TUESDAY AND FOR THE COASTAL COOLING WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING. MAX TEMPS TUE AND
WED WILL END UP 10 TO 15 LOCALLY 20 DEGREES OVER NORMAL. VLY TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF ISOLATED 90 OR
91 DEGREE READINGS.
AVIATION
04/1121Z.
AROUND 0855Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX, BUT THERE
WAS SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 400 FEET WITH TEMPERATURE
NEAR 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, EXCEPT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR KPRB. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
19Z.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 16Z.
MARINE
04/321 AM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS VERSUS WINDS.
AT EAST-FACING HARBORS, INCLUDING AVALON HARBOR ON CATALINA
ISLAND AND SMUGGLERS COVE ON SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS AFFECTING THESE HARBORS TODAY.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OUT TO 10 NM OFFSHORE, THERE IS A HIGH-
TO-LIKELY (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS THIS MORNING, HIGHEST BETWEEN RINCON POINT TO SANTA MONICA
AND INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH (30 TO
50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS REDEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 38-357-381-382. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 87-349-350-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 343-344-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 343-344-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONE
354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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