649
FXUS66 KLOX 191302
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
602 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
19/100 AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MOST
AREAS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
RETURN TO MANY COASTAL AREAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
19/250 AM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY,
BOUNCING BETWEEN 589-592 DAM, AS A LARGE/WIDE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AREA. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD, WELL OFF THE COAST TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT MORE SE TODAY WITH ELIDA'S MOVEMENTS AND SLIGHT SHIFTS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION AS
A RESULT OF ELIDA'S POSITIONING, AND THERE IS A 5-10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.. AT THE SAME TIME, SLIGHT SHIFTS
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NE, WILL HELP BRING SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL
AS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA, AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ON ON MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE LAYER COVERAGE EACH NIGHT. THE LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR THE COAST, MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, AND 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE DESERTS.
AS FOR TUESDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE, BUT INFORMATION ON
THE WARMING TREND CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
AS FOR WINDS, GENERALLY SUB-ADVISORY SW WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT COULD
RESULT IN A FEW AREAS GUSTING TO 45 MPH (I.E LAKE PALMDALE).
SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL INCREASE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
19/250 AM.
AGAIN, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE
LARGE WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE AREA AROUND NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERN CA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH, WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASING TO 592-594 DAM AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE SE, BRINGING
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THESE PWATS ARE ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF
L.A. COUNTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF AT LEAST VENTURA AND L.A. COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
RIGHT NOW CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 10% FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO EARLY THIS WEEK, WE
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE CHANCE AND EXTENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT RISK MAY EXPAND INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND MAYBE TURN LIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN
THE MORNINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
594-596 DAM. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (AT LEAST 60 PERCENT
CHANCE) THAT AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS, INCLUDING POTENTIALLY NEAR THE COAST, BY WEDNESDAY. ALSO OF
NOTE, SUNDOWNER WINDS IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES COULD
REACH NEAR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
19/1300Z.
AROUND 12Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2400 FT WITH A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 25 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, AND KPRB.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. CIG ARRIVAL AND
CLEARING TIMES MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS AND CIG HEIGHTS OFF BY
+/- 300 FT. PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DISRUPTING THE
MARINE LAYER AND CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE, SCATTER, AND REFORM
SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-17Z EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL AND CLEARING TIMES OF
MVFR CIGS 010-015 MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST.
30% CHANCE CIGS ARRIVE AS IFR 008-010 FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 08Z MON. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE CIGS DO NOT
ARRIVE OR REMAIN INTERMITTENT. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z MON. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
MARINE
19/100 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MORE THAN 20 NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY, RISING TO SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS MAY IMPACT SOUTH FACING HARBORS, INCLUDING
THE PORT SAN LUIS AREA.
BEACHES
19/100 AM.
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOTHER
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA AND
FOLLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG 20 N LATITUDE. BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND ARE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECONDARY SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF ELIDA AS WELL AS AN INCOMING
LONG PERIOD, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING LATER THIS
WEEK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED AND POTENTIALLY MORE HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
AND/OR BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY NEEDED NEXT WEEK.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 87-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...LUND/COHEN
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...LEWIS/CILIBERTI/KL
BEACHES...LEWIS/CC/KL
SYNOPSIS...CILIBERTI/COHEN/KL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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