429
FXUS66 KLOX 231757 AAA
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1057 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
23/118 AM.
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. MAY GRAY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTS AND VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING PERIOD. MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF GUSTY
EVENING WINDS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
23/1015 AM.
***UPDATE***
VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER (AROUND 3000 FT) STRATUS IS OVERSPREAD
ACROSS ALL COASTS AND VALLEYS. SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS TO CLEAR BEFORE THE VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL, 00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, WEAK TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THEN A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SWING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, A VERY BENIGN "MAY GRAY" PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DEEP THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, STRATUS SHOULD PUSH
WELL INLAND TO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY EACH NIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE HREF, THIS EXPECTATION LOOKS GOOD.
EACH AFTERNOON, STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY WELL ALTHOUGH SOME
BEACHES COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS,
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY.
AS FOR WINDS, THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE CONTINUED GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
DESERT FOOTHILLS AND DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS ON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE SOME
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE USUAL SPOTS (SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5
CORRIDOR) SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT NO ADVISORY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE "MAY GRAY" PATTERN, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. TODAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL HOVER
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT WILL DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
23/118 AM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW, DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE "MAY GRAY" PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG,
ALLOWING FOR A WIDESPREAD STRATUS PATTERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING
WITH GOOD STRATUS DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON. WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER LOW, IT REMAINS TOO FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO BRING ANY
THREAT OF SHOWERS, BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AMOUNT OF MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS FOR WINDS, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE, EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FINALLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN ON THE "CHILLY" SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON FRIDAY, HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES.
AVIATION
23/1756Z.
AT 1700Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2800 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 5000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KWJF AND KPMD. FOR ALL
OTHER SITES, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS AS FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES COULD BE UP TO +/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES
COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECASTS.
MARINE
23/830 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS (STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND A 20%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RS/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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