227
FXUS66 KLOX 122229
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
12/201 AM.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH FLOODING AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THUNDERSTORMS,
STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
12/228 PM.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PEAK IN
THE MORNING HOURS. LAX-DAG AROUND -1 MB AND LAX BFL NEAR -4 MB.
ALONG WITH NO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. RADIATION FG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. WEAK
RIDGING WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST (3-6F) OF WARMING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW WITH COAST/VALLEY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND 50S TO 60S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY COOLING COAST/VALLEY LOCATIONS 3-6F WITH SLIGHTLY WARMING
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AND CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO APPROACH TOWARDS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT MORE ON
SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
12/219 PM.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
THREE STORM SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT SET IN STONE, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD ARRIVE TO THE CENTRAL COAST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ON MONDAY. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT WITH TIME.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND RAIN RATES. ONE CAVEAT THAT COULD DAMPEN HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS A BIT WOULD BE THE STORM'S FAST MOTION. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION COMPARED TO
THE LAST STORM SYSTEM. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND
1" ON MONDAY WITH 10% OF ENSEMBLES INDICATING CLOSER TO 1.2". THIS
WOULD BE OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE. STILL WITH THE SAME GENERAL
THOUGHTS OF 1-2" FOR COAST/VALLEY AND 2X THAT FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE THE RANGE WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A HANDFUL OF MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ICON THAT ARE
LESS FAVORABLE SYNOPTICALLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS DISCONTINUITY IN GUIDANCE BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY'S STORM - LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW
ON THURSDAY BUT UNCERTAIN IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 6000 FT FOR THE FIRST STORM AND WILL
DECREASE TO 3000-3500 FT BY WED. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED
OUT WITH TIME. ECMWF 500MB TEMPS DROP TO -33 C OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 700-500MB (7-8 C) LAPSE RATES
INDICATING FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. DESPITE LESS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMPARED TO MONDAY, THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD, CALIFORNIA, AS
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
12/1753Z.
AT 1625Z, THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER TO AROUND 2000 FT, AND A VERY
WEAK INVERSION TO 3000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 DEGREES C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPRB, WHERE THERE IS A 45%
CHANCE FOR VLIFR CONDS AND A 20% CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO LIFR CONDS AT
COASTAL SITES AFTER 06Z. AFTER 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
OVER THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR NORTH WINDS 5-10 KT AT
KSBA 07Z-16Z. FOR ALL SITES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 10 KT HIGHER AT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. THEN A
15% CHANCE FOR VV002 AND 1/2SM CONDS 12Z-18Z, ALTHOUGH LIGHT (LESS
THAN 4 KT) NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY STRATUS
FORMATION. 30% CHANCE FOR WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN
22Z AND 03Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
IN GROUND FOG THROUGH 16Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
12/212 PM.
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BUILDING SUNDAY NIGHT, THUS
IT IS ENCOURAGED TO THINK ABOUT ALTERING PLANS FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN A RELATIVE LULL IS FORECAST DURING
MOST OF SATURDAY. FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CATALINA EDDY IS FORECAST TO
SPIN UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A 30% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY, THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: ALL EYES SHIFT TO LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRETY OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THERE IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AND BECOME LARGE AND
HAZARDOUS, INCLUDING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
12/214 PM.
SURF AND SWELL WILL BUILD AGAIN AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES.
A PERIOD OF VERY LARGE WAVES CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
LATEST SWELL MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH TO
LIKELY (50-70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HIGH SURF BETWEEN
MONDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS ARRIVE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SETS
ABOVE 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BEACHES, BUT THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCES FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THERE IS A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING SETS DEVELOPING BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST FOR NORTHWEST-FACING SHORES
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDES AS THE NEW MOON CYCLE APPROACHES WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER SURF AND SWELL WITH STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF COASTAL
FLOODING, OR AT THE VERY LEAST, MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS DURING TIMES
OF THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES EACH EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD SWELL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR SURF AND
SWELL AND LOCALLY WIND-DRIVEN SWELL AFFECT THE BEACHES AND
COASTLINE.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
PST SATURDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...BLACK
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
BEACHES...HALL/BL
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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