765
FXUS66 KLOX 140408
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
908 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/127 PM.
SEASONAL JUNE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS
AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MINOR AFTERNOON HEAT IMPACTS, BEFORE COOLING DOWN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
13/906 PM.
***UPDATE***
VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE 80S TO THE
100S OVER THE INTERIOR. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS LIMITED WARMING NEAR
THE COASTS AND MANY AREAS STRUGGLED TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO TREND 2-3 DEGREES COOLER, WITH A SIMILAR MARINE
LAYER PATTERN. ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS (20-35 MPH) DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
HOWEVER DID COOL THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST 2-4 DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MIDDAY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WHICH WAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER,
LIKELY RELATED TO THE QUICK RETREAT OF THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
BE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO AT LEAST MINOR HEAT IMPACTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN
COASTAL VALLEYS TO INTERIOR DESERTS. FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL
VALLEY AND BASIN AREAS THE ADDED ELEMENT OF HUMIDITY (RH>55%) MAY
MAKE TEMPERATURES A TOUCH MORE UNCOMFORTABLE.
BEYOND TODAY, RELATIVELY SMALL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY - MONDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT,
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBTLE MARINE LAYER CHANGES WILL
MOST STRONGLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL
NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG (FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
GENERALLY MINOR HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 100 FOR COASTAL VALLEYS TO INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS MAY EXPAND FOR
WARMER COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE
WILL BE MINOR WARMING (2-5 DEGREES). THIS IS THANKS A DELAYED SEA
BREEZE AND LIKELY SLIGHT SHRINKING IN THE MARINE LAYER DUE TO TO
MINOR OFFSHORE TRENDS (ACTUAL ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE EVEN
DURING THE TYPICAL MORNING MINIMUM) FOCUSED FROM THE NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND NUDGE FURTHER INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MINOR LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING. ALTHOUGH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE HEAT STRESS DURING THE DAY FOR
THOSE INTERIOR AREAS, GOOD COOLING TRENDS IN THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS AND THEREFORE
THE NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER AVOIDING PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY AND HYDRATE
OFTEN.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
13/128 PM.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AND MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A SLOW-DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO REGION WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY AND BRING MODERATE COOLING TRENDS AWAY FROM THE COAST,
DRASTICALLY REDUCING HEAT RISK EVEN TO WARMER INTERIOR AREAS.
NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, BUT EXPAND WELL
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FOOTHILLS.
THE ASSOCIATED ONSHORE PUSH WILL SUPPORT GUSTY ONSHORE TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE INTERIOR,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE
TRANSITION DAYS (WED/THU) FOR FAR INTERIOR AREAS AND MAYBE
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, WHICH WOULD BE SITUATED ABOVE THE
EXPANDING MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.
AVIATION
14/0234Z.
AT 0018Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 900 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS AND FLIGHT MINIMUMS BY ONE
CATEGORY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD BE AS LOW
AS 1/2 TO 1 SM AT TIMES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS 005-009 SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND 14/01Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT MID-MORNING TOMORROW (MVFR 010),
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IF CLEARING OCCURS OR INTERMITTENT CIGS REMAIN
THRU END OF FCST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14/08Z. 30-40% CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS 14/12Z-16Z.
MARINE
13/821 PM.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOCAL GUSTS COULD REACH 21 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, SANTA MONICA
BASIN, AND NEARSHORE LOS ANGELES HARBOR INTO THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT TO MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
BEACHES
13/824 PM.
A COUPLE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS (14 SECONDS AND 18
SECONDS) WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET ON SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES OF VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES, MALIBU COAST, LOS ANGELES
COUNTY BEACHES, AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BEACHES.
EVENING TIDES OF 7.5 TO 7.9 FT ARE PREDICTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HIGH TIDES WITH
ELEVATED SURF COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG SOUTH EXPOSED COASTS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SNEAKER WAVES. EVEN AS TIDES LOWER, ANOTHER COUPLE OF SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS, WHICH COULD EXTEND CONCERNS
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND REFER
TO CFWLOX FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ZONES 349-350-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/SB
AVIATION...PHILLIPS/BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/CILIBERTI
BEACHES...BLACK/CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...SB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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