164
FXUS66 KLOX 132105
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
13/1214 AM.
WARM BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH COASTAL MORNING LOW CLOUDS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
13/158 PM.
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON SAVE FOR A FEW STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS NEAR MALIBU AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING THE
WARMEST OF THE DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S AND
A SMATTERING OF LOW 90S. A BIT DRIER AREA HAS WORKED INTO THE
AREA ASSISTING WITH THE COOLER FEEL TO THE AIR, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PROBABLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
WIND HAZARDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TO SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LOOK GOOD. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STEADY LOWERING IN DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN PLAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY EACH
DAY. TWO, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN HEALTHILY
ONSHORE. THREE, GUSTY CENTRAL COAST AND SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING, THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN. THESE WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY, BUT COME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A HUGE COASTAL EDDY FORMING IN
THEIR WAKE WITH RAPID LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION. WOULD
EXPECT A FEW RANDOM REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL
BOOST THE TEMPERATURE DROP. WITH ALL THAT STATED, HIGHS WILL STILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS NOT COLD, BUT NOT
HOT EITHER AND BELOW NORMAL BY 5 OR 10 DEGREES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
13/159 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXPAND TO THE
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THAT EXPANSION WILL BE
BATTLING A SMALL YET POTENT CLOSED LOW SPINNING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SAN FRANSISCO AND PORTLAND. HOW THOSE TWO FEATURES INTERACT IS
STILL UP IN THE AIR, WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF THE WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS AND THE
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS VERY LIKELY, BUT
IT COULD BE ONLY 5 DEGREES OR IT COULD BE 15 DEGREES...OR
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE WARMEST SCENARIO WOULD KNOCK ON THE DOOR
OF SOME TARGETED HEAT ADVISORIES, BUT THAT IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
AT THIS POINT. THE TROPICAL STORM TRAIN OFF WESTERN MEXICO LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE SURGE SIGNALS INTO CALIFORNIA AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
13/1827Z.
AT 18Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2000 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3500 FEET AND 22 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AT
KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF. SOME LOW-END LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KSBA THIS
EVENING 03-10Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE NEARBY HILLS.
FOR TONIGHT: LIFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBP (10%) KSMX (30%).
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KOXR (20%) KCMA (20%) KSMO (60%)
KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (30%) KVNY (20%).
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS).
KLAX...60% CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 8
KNOTS.
KBUR...30% CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH AT
LEAST MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE LIKELY.
MARINE
13/736 AM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT SUITE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
(SCA) AND GALE WARNINGS (GLW). HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST TODAY AND TONIGHT OF THE CURRENT NORTHWEST PUSH, GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST.
UPPER-END SCA WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF LOW-END SCA WINDS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE A BUILDING SHORT-
PERIOD FRESH SWELL OVER ALL WATERS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON &
EVENING HOURS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. STRONGER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340-341-346-347. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RM/RK
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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