883
FXUS66 KLOX 292230
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
29/140 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
29/229 PM.
AS EXPECTED, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY OFFSHORE,
AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS IN SLO
COUNTY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE
TODAY AND THROUGH THE AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHART SHOWS
TEMPS UP 10-20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ACROSS
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND JUST SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
SOME DAILY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
29/229 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY WITH AGAIN RAPIDLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 90, AS A
585DAM HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. STILL NOT SEEING A TON OF UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW END WIND
ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED AT TIMES, MAINLY AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON ARE BLEAK. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL PEGGING AROUND THE 9TH OR 10TH OF FEB FOR OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF ANY RAIN, BUT MOST OF THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE WELL UNDER A
HALF INCH.
AVIATION
29/1804Z.
AROUND 1728Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX. THERE WAS
A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS, EXCEPT FOR A 30% CHANCE FOR VLIFR
CONDS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AS NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MDT LLWS POSSIBLE AT KSBP, KSMX, KVNY, AND KBUR, AND MDT
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
AN EAST WIND COMPONENT TO REACH 8 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS. LGT TO MDT LLWS AND
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30% CHANCE FOR BRIEF
EAST-NORTHEAST TO SURFACE AT KBUR THROUGH 02Z, THEN AGAIN AFTER
15Z.
MARINE
29/142 PM.
A COMBINATION OF SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND OCCASIONAL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CREATE PERIODS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, BEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST
OF POINT CONCEPTION, INCLUDING NEARSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDS RETURNING
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, BUT ANY SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALIZED NEAR CAYUCOS AND MORRO BAY. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY RETURN NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAXIMUM WIND
SPEEDS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, NEARSHORE AREAS FROM
VENTURA THROUGH MALIBU WILL SEE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH RELATIVE LULLS OUTSIDE OF THE PEAK HOURS. LOW
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO A 50% CHANCE
OF THESE WINDS REACHING ANACAPA AND SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIODS. HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WINDS GREATER THAN
10-15 KNOTS REACH AVALON OR TWO HARBORS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE, WITH SANTA ANA WINDS LIKELY RETURNING BY NEXT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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