942
FXUS66 KLOX 272321
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
421 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2023
SYNOPSIS
27/214 PM.
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT AND DEEP
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. LOCAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
27/158 PM.
GETTING A LITTLE BETTER CLEARING IN SOME AREAS TODAY, POSSIBLY A
RESULT OF A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED BY RIDGING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW
SOME ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS THE WARMER
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM THE RIDGE PUSHES DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS.
IN THEORY THIS SHOULD HELP SKIES CLEAR AT LEAST AS MUCH AS THEY
HAVE TODAY AND LIKELY A LITTLE MORE. CLOUDS HAVE YET TO CLEAR THE
LONG BEACH AREA TODAY AND THE PV PENINSULA, AND SANTA BARBARA HAS
BEEN CLOUDY SINCE THE STRATUS FILLED IN THERE THIS MORNING, SO
NOT EVERYWHERE HAD A SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SIMILAR
TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT IT'S STILL FAR FROM THE CONDITIONS OF LAST
WEEKEND AND CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY ARE NO MORE THAN
10% AT BEST. MOST LIKELY THE BEST WE'LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS.
THE MARINE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO START DEEPENING AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES CLOSER, COOLING
THE AIR ALOFT AND PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER BACK UP. COULD SEE A
RETURN TO PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES. SLOWER CLEARING AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED AS WELL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
27/215 PM.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORNING DRIZZLE
ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW
COOLING TREND, MORE SO INLAND THAN AT THE COAST. FOLLOWING THE
UPPER LOW PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A SLOW RECOVERY OF HEIGHTS ALOFT
RESULTING IN A VERY MINOR WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS SEASONABLY STRONG, 8-10MB TO THE EAST EACH
DAY SO AT THE VERY LEAST WE'RE LOOKING AT A LATER THAN USUAL
CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND AFTERNOON TEMPS THAT ARE STILL
3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA, WITH VIRTUALLY ALL MEMBERS SHOWING
BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
27/2321Z.
AT 2215Z, THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 3300 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 5500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
16 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TO ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY SITES OVERNIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RETURN (COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF
CURRENT FORECASTS).
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT 07Z FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF CURRENT 09Z FORECAST.
MARINE
27/150 PM.
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL AND SOUTH OF POINT
CONCPETION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
BEACHES
27/150 PM.
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS AND A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET/RAT
BEACHES...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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