585  
FXUS66 KLOX 300612  
AFDLOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
1112 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
29/1037 PM.  
 
A SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING TWO DAYS OF NOTICEABLE  
COOLING TO ALL AREAS. EVEN WITH THE COOLING MOST AREAS WILL SEE  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLOW RETURN OF MORNING  
LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT  
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)  
29/825 PM.  
 
***UPDATE***  
 
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 25 MPH CONTINUED  
MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. WITH JUST WEAK OFFSHORE  
FLOW TOMORROW AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TRENDS, WE ALLOWED THE HEAT  
ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF  
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TO EXPIRE. WITH A VERY DRY AIR  
MASS IN PASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WHERE WINDS DROP OFF,  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
ALTERNATIVELY, WHERE OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUE (SUCH AS WIND PRONE  
FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES) IT WILL BE ANOTHER  
WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THE END OF  
OCTOBER, WITH THE WARMEST COASTAL VALLEYS STILL REACHING NEAR 90  
DEGREES.  
 
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***  
 
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER  
NONDESCRIPT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE GRADIENTS  
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH WEAK DIURNAL  
GRADIENTS PREVAILING FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  
 
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND  
TEMPERATURES. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 25-45 MPH, ACROSS THE AREA, BUT  
MAINLY THE SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. AS  
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. FOR  
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, WILL STILL ANTICIPATE SOME GUSTY  
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS  
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NEGLIGIBLE. BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH WITH WEAK  
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY (WEAK  
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY).  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS  
THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WITH THE LINGERING OFFSHORE WINDS, BUT  
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH LESS WIND. ON THURSDAY, WILL  
ANTICIPATE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE COASTS/VALLEYS  
(DUE TO RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW), BUT SOME SLIGHT WARMING ACROSS  
INTERIOR SECTIONS. FOR FRIDAY, ALL AREAS WILL EXHIBIT SOME COOLING  
WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY  
SATURDAY, NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL  
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
AS FOR CLOUDS, WILL ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR  
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG WILL  
BEGIN TO REESTABLISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE  
COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND ANTICIPATED WITH THE  
SURFACE GRADIENTS, FLOW WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL DURING THE NIGHT  
HOURS. SO, DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STRATUS/FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  
   
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)  
29/158 PM.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED, BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR  
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE WEAK DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES  
NEAR THE SURFACE.  
 
SO, OVERALL, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE COAST  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXPERIENCE  
VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG (BASED ON THE  
WHIMS OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT  
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY, REMAINING  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THERE  
WILL BE SOME NOTICEABLE COOLING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR  
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
A BIT FURTHER OUT, THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME  
LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THURSDAY. IF ANY RAIN DOES DEVELOP, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
VERY LIGHT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
30/0600Z.  
 
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THRU WAS A SFC BASED  
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 1200 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 30 C.  
 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KLGB AND KLAX WITH A 25 PERCENT CHC OF  
VLIFR CONDS AT KLGB AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF VLIFR CONDS AT KLAX  
FROM 10Z-14Z.  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF CAVU TAFS.  
 
KLAX...GOOD IN CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE  
OF 1/4SM FG VV002 CONDS 10Z-14Z. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIG/VIS  
ARRIVING DURING THE 31/06Z-31/12Z TIME FRAME. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN  
ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING BELOW 7 KTS.  
 
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
29/757 PM.  
 
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS BEYOND 30 NM FROM SHORE OFF  
THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO  
THE EAST AND SOUTH, INCLUDING NEARSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST  
AND DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM  
SEAS WILL BE TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
TOP OUT IN THE 10-12 FOOT RANGE. A LULL IN BOTH WIND STRENGTH AND  
SEA HEIGHT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.  
 
10 TO 15 KT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THIS EVENING  
THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PT. MUGU TO WESTERN MALIBU.  
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT  
CONCEPTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MILD INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN  
THE WATERS ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES, FOCUSED  
SOUTH OF THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING  
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT  
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY  
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE  
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT  
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT  
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...THOMPSON/RM  
AVIATION...RORKE  
MARINE...LEWIS/BLACK  
SYNOPSIS...30  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
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