817
FXUS66 KLOX 052014
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
114 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
05/1216 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
05/914 AM.
***UPDATE***
PRETTY QUIET MORNING WEATHER-WISE. THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1500
FT DEEP AT KLAX AND VANDENBERG, WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE COAST, MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY/SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY, THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY, AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY LOCATIONS (LIKE PASO ROBLES). A FEW STATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST REPORTING 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN (DRIZZLE)
DUE TO THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY,
WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S (INCLUDING
THE WARMEST VALLEYS), AND HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS, WITH 70S TO LOCALLY 80 AT THE BEACHES.
BESIDES SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS, MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST/SOUTH OF OUR FOUR COUNTY
AREA (SLO TO LA COUNTIES).
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN SHAPE AND NO UPDATES WERE
NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.
STARTING MONDAY A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AREA-WIDE AS AN UNUSUALLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER WEST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PUSHING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS AND SLOW COOLING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
05/337 AM.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH HIGHS
6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE HIGHS IN SOME
AREAS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
DRIZZLE UP AGAINST THE COASTAL SLOPES AS THE MARINE LAYER REACHES
AT LEAST 3000 FEET.
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME OF THE MORE RECENT
SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FAVORING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A VERY SLOW
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEK OF THE 14TH. WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE THE MONSOON
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
05/1802Z.
AT 1716Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAFS FOR DESERT AIRFIELDS (KPMD & KWJF).
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR REMAINING TAFS. LEAST CONFIDENT
IN ARRIVAL OF CIGS (+/- 3 HOURS). DEPARTURE TIMES LIKELY WILL BE
ACCURATE WITHIN +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT FORECAST. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS AT
KSBA. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF THAT IFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE AT KVNY
& KBUR.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE TIMES
OF CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. FLIGHT CATS COULD BE OFF BY ONE.
NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS FROM 08Z TO 16Z SAT.
MARINE
05/113 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION & FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AROUND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RELATIVE
LULLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL,
NEAR POINT DUME, AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. CHANCES NOTABLY INCREASE NEXT
WEEK FOR SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING EASTERN PORTIONS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER MAY INCREASE ABOVE 5 FEET.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/KL
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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