310
FXUS66 KLOX 302200
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/1216 AM.
THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP IN LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VALLEYS. A NEW STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, HEAVIEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW YEARS DAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
30/125 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST, MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN,
A WET NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY REMAINS IN THE CARDS FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.
RAIN: LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE PEAK OF THE RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LINGERING SHOWER
THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TOTALS THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75 TO
2.50 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH 2.00-5.50 INCHES
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.50 IS
LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LINGERING SHOWER THREAT.
RAINFALL RATES, GENERALLY, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH PER HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HIGHER
RATES, IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH PER HOUR RANGE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
SNOW: SNOW LEVELS THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 8500 FEET THEN DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET ON FRIDAY. SO, DO
NOT ANTICIPATED ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS: AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
INSTABILITY. SO, HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
WIND: SANTA ANA WINDS HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DECREASE THE GRADIENT BY ABOUT HALF FROM THE
PEAK THIS MORNING AND DECREASE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO, ANY
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED. SO, WILL
MOST LIKELY ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT 300 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IS ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME, ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LOCALIZED.
IMPACTS: GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAINFALL RATES,
THERE IS CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES FROM SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1000 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 1000 PM THURSDAY (SEE
LAXFFALOX FOR DETAILS).
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CANYON ROADWAYS. WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND AROUND THE RECENT BURN SCARS. STRONG FLOWS
WILL BE LIKELY IN LOCAL WATERWAYS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
30/125 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT. THE OVERALL MESSAGE WILL BE A CONTINUED WET PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE TIMING OF THINGS, BUT A SERIES OF
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME, THE TWO BEST SHOTS OF RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. WITH EITHER SYSTEM, LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
ABOVE 7500 FEET, BUT WILL DROP INTO THE 6000-7000 FOOT RANGE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SO, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIKELY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
30/1750Z.
AT 1718Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION TO 900
FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES CELSIUS. A SECONDARY
INVERSION WAS TOPPED AT 1800 WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT KOXR AND KCMA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
AND MORE WIDESPREAD E TO SE WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS JUST AFTER
31/18Z. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES, BUT MODERATE WINDS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
SHRA IS POSSIBLE TODAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 31/12Z.
MOST INTENSE RAIN WILL FALL SOMETIME BETWEEN 01/06Z AND 03Z/00Z,
WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR -TSRA AFTER 01/06Z, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IS LIKELY OVER AND NEAR
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE
AND LLWS LIKELY AFTER 31/18Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -SHRA POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN INCREASE AFTER 31/15Z. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR -TSRA AS EARLY AS 01/06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 01/00Z (GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS), BUT THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REACH 15 KNOTS BY 31/20Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR EAST WIND COMPONENT BELOW 8 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
31/05Z AND 31/10Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -SHRA POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN INCREASE AFTER 31/16Z WED.
MARINE
30/156 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
INCLUDING NEARSHORE AREAS FROM VENTURA SOUTH THROUGH MALIBU.
LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS MAY OCCUR, WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SCA LEVEL SANTA ANAS MAY CONTINUE INTOV WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TYPICAL AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IMPACTING THE REGION (INCLUDING
HARBORS) AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. A RELATIVE LULL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A RETURN OF SCA LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
A STEEP AND CHOPPY SOUTHERLY WIND SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS,
PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY STORM COMING THROUGH.
THIS SWELL WILL BE LARGER AND A LONGER PERIOD.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE) NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION) DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING. WATERSPOUTS, GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
BEACHES
30/142 PM.
ABNORMALLY LARGE TIDES BETWEEN 6.8 AND 7.5 FEET MLLW WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4AM AND NOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL THROUGH
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WIND SWELL
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WILL ADD A LITTLE BIT TO THE WATER
LEVELS. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOWS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE BEACHES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY POSE MORE OF A THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AS A LARGER SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ENTERS THE
REGION. WHILE THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
HIGHEST SURF, THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS SUCH AS
SHALLOW FLOODING OF PARKING LOTS AND ROADWAYS, SOME INUNDATION OF
HARBOR WALKWAYS, AND MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHEST FOR WEST FACING BEACHES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 88-349>358-362-366>382-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...LEWIS
BEACHES...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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