365
FXUS66 KLOX 310408
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
908 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/214 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR SLOPES. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)
30/908 PM.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, AND SOME
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE
REGION. A BROAD TROUGH LINGERED JUST WEST OF THE REGION, WITH
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CA. ANOTHER VORT MAX
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THRU THE
REGION MON MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL START OUT WESTERLY
THIS EVENING, WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. IN ADDITION,
OMEGA FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENTURA COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY L.A. COUNTY, SIGNALING IMPROVING
LIFT THRU THE MOIST LAYER. ALL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN VTU
COUNTY AND L.A. COUNTY. IN FACT, THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN IN L.A. COUNTY FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT THRU MID
MORNING MON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE
TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER
ONE HALF INCH IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE, THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS,
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY. THERE COULD ALSO BE TOTALS UP TO
A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN L.A. COUNTY AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON, MOSTLY IN THE
EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. THE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SECONDARY
IMPULSE WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THRU AT
LEAST MON EVENING, AND LIKELY THRU TUE EVE. IN THESE AREAS, GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN
THE HILLS. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY COULD CAUSE
LOCAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
BUT DRIER NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ON TUESDAY,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS STATING
SHOWING A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A LIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED WITH LESS IN THE WAY OFF WINDS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/222 PM.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE
LONGER RANGE MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET
UP OVER NV AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS
OF PVA OVER THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM
THE INTERIOR THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT
STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH
FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
31/0109Z.
AT 0040Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A DEEP
MOIST LAYER UP TO 6000 FEET.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) DUE TO LOW
CERTAINTY IN CIGS AND VSBY, AND THE TIMING OF CHANGES. HOWEVER,
CONDS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
OCCASIONAL -SHRA, ESPECIALLY 06Z-18Z. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AT TIMES.
THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST COMPONENT UP TO 8
KNOTS FROM 09Z-17Z MON.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS
WILL FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
PERIODIC -SHRA THROUGH AROUND 18Z . MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z MON.
MARINE
30/820 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL S WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THRU
LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH SCA LEVEL NW WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY (80%
CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, TUE
AFTERNOON THRU WED MORNING, DECREASING TO 30% CHC THRU WED NIGHT.
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED MID-MORNING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS THRU
TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU TUE MORNING, THOUGH
SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS MAY BE AT
SCA LEVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING WIND LULLS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL E TO SE WINDS
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
SCA WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON, THOUGH THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THRU WED MID-MORNING, AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS MAY
ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, WITH UP
TO 11 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...DB/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...DB/LUND/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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