709
FXUS66 KLOX 050357
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
757 PM PST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
04/718 PM.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ARE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, EXCEPT SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE REGION WIDE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)
04/752 PM.
***UPDATE***
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, STRONGEST OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS, WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED.
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MPH,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRONGER WINDS WON'T MATERIALIZE
THERE. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS
FILTERING DOWN TO THE MALIBU COAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA TO
WATCH WILL BE THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY WHERE STRONG WINDS COULD
DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
AS OF 700 PM, THE WINDS ARE STILL RAMPING UP OVER THE AREA WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 55 MPH. THE FV3 MODEL INDICATES MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE FIRST
OF TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WINDS TO MANY AREAS, BUT
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 60
MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS, IN THE MOUNTAINS
SURROUNDING THE GRAPEVINE AREA, AND IN THE SAN GABRIELS. THERE'S
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF 60 MPH GUSTS IN THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
AND 10-20% ACROSS THE LA COUNTY PORTION OF THE MALIBU COAST. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS 60 MPH GUSTS IN AND AROUND THE
SIMI VALLEY HILLS, SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE PORTER RANCH
AREA. ALSO, STILL EXPECTING WINDY CONDITIONS FILTERING DOWN INTO
THE WEST LA AREA AND OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING ALL
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. ONE AREA TO BE MINDFUL OF THAT IS CURRENTLY
NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT SUITE OF WIND HAZARDS IS THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. THIS IS TYPICALLY PROTECTED BY THE MOUNTAINS BUT
IF THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTH TO ALIGN FAVORABLY
OVER THAT AREA THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THERE AS
WELL BUT CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE UNDER 10% AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES THURSDAY BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL COMPENSATE FOR MOST OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE (30-50%) ON THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWERING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY AROUND 4000 FEET,
MEANING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SUMMIT ON I5,
BUT ONLY A 5% CHANCE OR LESS OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THAT LEVEL.
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTH FLOW WIND EVENT TO A
TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN 6 AND 8MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE,
ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY WITH MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 80. MANY OF THE PREVIOUS WIND
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE BACK IN PLAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND FAVORED AREAS,
WHICH WOULD NOT INCLUDE THE LA BASIN, THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY, OR
SLO AND SB COUNTIES, EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE SANTA LUCIAS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
04/215 PM.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT AND A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS. WILL LIKELY
NEED CONTINUE WIND ADVISORIES IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT WITH HIGHS IN 80S FOR
MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE'S
EVENT ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AND HIGHS
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
05/0317Z.
AT 0033Z, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP AT KLAX. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15
DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR MOST TAF SITES, EXCEPT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY COASTAL SITES WHERE THE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF BY 1, AND THE TIMING COULD BE OFF
BY +/- 2 HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WHERE LLWS
IS MOST LIKELY AT KSBA, AND POSSIBLE AT KLAX AND KSMO. THE TIMING
OF STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 3 HOURS, WITH THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE LA COUNTY COAST AND VALLEY TAFS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. NORTH WINDS
GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 07Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY NOT OCCUR BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z, HOWEVER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW- LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME FRAME.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR UP TO TWO HOURS. NORTH WINDS
GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 04Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS MAY NOT OCCUR
BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW- LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z.
MARINE
04/703 PM.
***UPDATE***
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE STARTING TIME OF GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS
ADJACENT TO LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY (PZZ655) TO 1 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL N WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS NEARSHORE FROM MALIBU TO PALOS VERDES. THESE WINDS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
***MAIN DISCUSSION***
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR SEAS. SEAS COULD BE UP TO 1-3 FEET HIGHER THAN
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) AND GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME WATERS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH TO LIKELY (40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE (30-40
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INSIDE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BIGHT, AND HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 87-366-367. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 88-349>352-356-357-371>375-381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 346-347. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 362-369-370. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 379-380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...HALL/SMITH
MARINE...HALL/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...BL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page