447
FXUS66 KMFR 140035
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
435 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...14/00Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. VFR
PREVAILS FOR MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
SOME LOCALIZED VALLEYS, NOTABLY THE LOWER ROGUE VALLEY NEAR GRANTS
PASS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/FREEZING FOG RETURN TO MANY
INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY 19-21Z
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS AGAIN LINGERING LONGEST IN
THE ROGUE/ILLINOIS VALLEYS.
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, EXPECT IFR/LIFR IN
FOG FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN TO DRIFT INTO COOS BAY AND BRIEFLY
IMPACT NORTH BEND FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE TIMING FOR THIS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 247 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2026/
DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND TEMPERATURES ARE INDEED WARMER ON
THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND SOME HIGHER TERRAIN. QUAIL PRAIRIE
LOOKOUT RAWS IS REPORTING 74 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS STRONG
INVERSION SETS UP.
PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE MORE FREEZING FOG BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL LINGERING
OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE AND 37 DEGREES IN
MEDFORD AS OF WRITING THIS AFD. WITH THIS STRONG INVERSION
OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AIR QUALITY AND AIR
STAGNATION ARE A CONCERN, WE KEPT THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY
GOING AND THERE IS AN AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE CASCADES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WE ALSO ISSUED ANOTHER FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS
VISIBILITIES DID DROP BELOW 1/4 A MILE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN IMPACT HERE IS FLIGHTS IN AND OUT OF AIRPORTS, ALTHOUGH THE
PARKING LOT HAD SOME SLICK SPOTS COMING INTO WORK THIS MORNING.
WE WILL BE TESTING SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THIS RIDGE PLAYS IN PLACE. ALTURAS AND MT. SHASTA CITY
WILL APPROACH THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 14TH, 15TH
AND 16TH. WITHOUT MUCH FOG IN THOSE AREAS THE LAST FEW DAYS WE
BELIEVE THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK THOSE RECORDS.
THINGS CHANGE SLIGHTLY INTO THURSDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SWINGING
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THIS WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY
FLOW AND ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE MID SLOPES AND
RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR. THIS REALLY
POPS OUT ON FRIDAY AS THE 1000 TO 500 MB LAYER REALLY DRYS OUT.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THINGS STILL LOOK DRY. WE LOOKED THROUGH THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ON THE ENS AND CONDITIONS LOOK DRY UP TO AROUND
FORECAST HOUR 170(NEXT TUESDAY) AS THINGS COULD START TO CHANGE.
MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PICKING UP ON PRECIPITATION AS ONE MOVES
FURTHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026...CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TODAY WITH SEAS LOWERING BELOW 7 TO 8 FT BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 12 FT AT 15
SECONDS) BUILDS INTO THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS WILL REMAIN
SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS
TRANSITION TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
CA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO
2 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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