232
FXUS66 KMFR 091106
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 AM PDT WED SEP 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.
* A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES
TREND A FEW DEGREES LESS WARM ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO AREA. ALSO EXPECT LOW CHANCES
(15-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES.
* DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO UPPER 80S FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN THE 90S FOR INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ALONG THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHETCO WARMING EFFECT IN THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. OVER UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
POOR ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA,
WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LESS WARM BUT SILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN, TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES
FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SUPPORTS A
50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND A 20-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
CHANCE (15-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
THIS LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SO, EXPECT
DRY WEATHER WITH LINGERING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE THEN SUPPORTS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN FOG ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND IN SHELTERED VALLEYS NEAR AND JUST
INLAND OF THE COAST, WITH CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 16-17Z. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BUT
STEEP SEAS WILL LINGER FOR MOST THE WATERS. THEN, GUSTY NORTH
WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY, WITH A A POTENTIAL FOR STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND STEEP SEAS FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
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