123
FXUS66 KMFR 101109
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE AN ACTIVE AND COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY POINTS:
* LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- SNOW LEVELS MAINLY 5000 FT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 4000 TO
5000 FEET EAST OF THE CASCADES.
- LIMITED IMPACTS MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE TRINITY
ALPS AND MOUNT SHASTA AREA
* RAIN: MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY
- RAINFALL GREATEST ALONG/NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY CURRY CO.
- NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT ROADS COULD BE HAZARDOUS
* SNOW: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY
- POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDS FOR MOUNTAINS/PASSES
- SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 2000-2500 SATURDAY NIGHT
- COULD SEE IMPACTS TO LOWER PASSES AND SOME WESTSIDE
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
* WIND: MODERATE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY
- WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EASTSIDE
THIS MORNING CONDITIONS ARE DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA. MORNING VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. LOCAL VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL THIS MORNING.
A LOW CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INLAND, MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO THE AREA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES
AND AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET FROM THE CASCADES EAST. UNDER THIS
PATTERN, BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND THE CASCADES EAST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA (ABOVE 6000 FEET). FOR
RAINFALL, EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES) IN SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS (AROUND 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES).
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THEN
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING WET AND COLD WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (BELOW) FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS BRINGING LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, INCLUDING AT MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG. LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FOR VALLEYS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
GRADUALLY CLEAR AROUND 18-20Z.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO SISKIYOU AND MODOC.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES
EAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS, LOCAL IFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, INCLUDING AT MOUNT
SHASTA CITY AND FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, LOCALIZED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2026
WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
BEYOND 10 NM OF SHORE. STEEP SEAS AND AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY
PERSIST WEDNESDAY. THEN, CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS NORTH
WINDS EASE AND SEAS LOWER. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 229 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026/
A STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE
REGION STARTING FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP AS LOW
AS 2000 TO 2500 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WEEKEND IN GENERAL
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SPEEDS. THE FINER DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS. THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SNOWFALL COULD IMPACT SOME LOWER PASSES SUCH AS
HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND POTENTIALLY SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ON I-5. ADDITIONALLY, MOUNT ASHLAND COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS THEY
HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THIS WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AS WELL AS MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AGAIN, TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE THE EXACT
DETAILS, BUT WE ARE CONSIDERING A SCENARIO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
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