213
FXUS66 KMFR 142138
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOST COOLING
FELT IN OREGON.
* DRY, MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
* STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
RAIN CHANCES KEEP LOWERING SINCE MOST PRECIPITATION IS NOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WARM PERIOD IS UPON US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN SOME WARM READINGS WILL BE FELT
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. OVERALL, TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH UP TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS
N&W OF THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
FELT ON THE UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES IF YOU FIND YOURSELF OUT FOR A
MOUNTAIN HIKE, BUT ALSO PERHAPS IN THE ASHLAND AREA SINCE WINDS
ALOFT THERE ARE ALIGNED FROM THE ESE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE MARINE INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY,
SO IT SHOULD COOL A BIT THERE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, SO IT'LL BE COOLER
FOR MOST AREAS WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NW SECTIONS DUE TO A DEEPER
MARINE PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WEST
OF THE CASCADES, BUT REMAIN ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS AREN'T REALLY SHOWING MUCH WIND AT THIS
TIME.
ASIDE FROM SOME MORNING CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE
COAST, SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
OLDER MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY HEALTHY FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE PACNW MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. BUT, RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS ARE SHOWING SPLIT FLOW (HARBINGER OF THIS WINTER?)
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BENEATH THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IT STALLS, AND THE
LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP
OUT OVER THE OCEAN. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE 20-40%
RANGE FOR MONDAY. COASTAL AREAS STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SOME
PRECIP, BUT PROBABLY NOT THE RAIN NEEDED AFTER SUCH A DRY START
TO OCTOBER.
AFTER THAT, MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT LOW HEADED INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE COULD
EVENTUALLY COME FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
BUT, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND OTHER PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS INDICATE
MUCH OF THAT COULD EASILY ESCAPE AND MISS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
-SPILDE
AVIATION...14/18Z TAFS
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THURSDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS, JUST A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET
AGL, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT FROM THE ESE. THIS WILL BRING AN
ENHANCED RISK OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MEDFORD AIRPORT AROUND AND
AFTER 12Z, LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 17Z DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION, WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT THOSE WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IT COULD GET
BREEZY IN ASHLAND, HOWEVER. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH WINDS IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
THEN SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS MOVES IN OVER SW
OREGON AND NORCAL LATE THIS WEEK (THU/FRI). THIS WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OFFSHORE WINDS (E-SE) STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
PEAKING OVER THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES, ESPECIALLY THE
CASCADES, WEST SIDE FOOTHILLS AND SISKIYOU MTNS WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH. EXPECT WORSENING MID SLOPE/RIDGE RH RECOVERIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHTS (WORST THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE CASCADES
WEST, AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE CASCADES EAST). WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A BIT BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL COULD BE GUSTY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS, PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN PORTIONS OF NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE. RIGHT NOW, THESE CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA, DUE TO EITHER MODERATE FIRE DANGER, OR NOT LONG ENOUGH
DURATION OF COMBINED CRITICAL WIND/RH LEVELS. EVEN SO, CONDITIONS
WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL (ESPECIALLY IN THE UMPQUA
NF/SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND PERHAPS MODOC AT TIMES). AS A
RESULT, WE OPTED TO HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.
ON SATURDAY, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR S&E SECTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS
DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG WITH THIS FRONT, SO FIRE CONCERNS
LESSEN. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER AREA WIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS
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