886
FXUS66 KMFR 141208
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
408 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...14/12Z TAFS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS FROM THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES WESTWARD THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND LOCAL IFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE, VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALSO
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, IN NE CALIFORNIA AND
OVER THE EAST SIDE IN OREGON WHERE PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KT ARE
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 329 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026/
SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SW OREGON LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY BRINGING RAINY WEATHER TO THE COAST.
SHOULD ALSO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NW OF A
LINE FROM ORLEANS TO MEDFORD/ASHLAND, CHILOQUIN AND SUMMER LAKE.
WHILE THERE'S A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST (ESPECIALLY IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION), MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD, THOUGH NOTICEABLY CLOUDIER. COLDER AND AT
TIMES STORMIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW.
THERE'S ALSO A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER ELEVATION SNOW
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS UPCOMING STRETCH OF INCLEMENT WEATHER, BUT RIGHT NOW, SINCE
WE'RE SO FAR BEHIND ON MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK AND WITH MANY SW OREGON
CLIMATE SITES RUNNING PRECIP DEFICITS FOR THE WATER YEAR, MUCH OF
THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
DISCUSSION...BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST CAUSED
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST AND ONSHORE INTO
SW OREGON LATE YESTERDAY AND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THIS MORNING.
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THERE SINCE LAST EVENING AND SOME AREAS
HAVE PICKED UP 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, PRIMARILY NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO IN COOS AND NW DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THE FRONT HAS
STALLED AND WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION STRETCHING
FROM NW CALIFORNIA UP ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OBSERVED HERE AT THE OFFICE IN
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AREAS NW OF A ORLEANS-MEDFORD/ASHLAND-SUMMER
LAKE LINE STAND THE BEST SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP TODAY.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH ARE MOST LIKELY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 199 AND FROM THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE CASCADES
NORTH OF LAKE OF WOODS WESTWARD. THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE AT
1.00 INCH FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS AREA OF
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. SNOW
LEVELS ARE UP AROUND 4500-5000 FEET. THIS COULD BRING A LITTLE
SNOW TO HIGHWAY 97 NORTH OF CHILOQUIN THIS MORNING AND ALSO THE
CASCADES (1-4 INCHES NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS, INCLUDING CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES AS WELL AS AROUND WILLAMETTE PASS) INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE AREAS TO SOUTH AND EAST STAND A CHANCE AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TOO (ESP AROUND MT SHASTA, WHERE FLOW IS UPSLOPE),
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD. MODEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY BREEZES
TO PICK UP TODAY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, NE CALIFORNIA AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE IN OREGON. OVERALL, WE EXPECT PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE AT A GUST >40
MPH. PLACES THAT'LL LIKELY BE WINDIEST ARE AROUND WEED AND SUMMER
LAKE.
AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE NORCAL COAST SUNDAY, THERE
WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WILL BE DIRECTED INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT
10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WE DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE TOO IMPACTFUL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ELEVATIONS NEAR SNOWMAN SUMMIT OR AT LEAST THE SKI ROAD TO MT
SHASTA SKI PARK AND SOME OF THE HIGH PASSES OF SW SISKIYOU COUNTY
ABUTTING TRINITY COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED. UPSTREAM ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH SHOULD GIVE THIS AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIP A KICK SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING (AND THEN BE
DIRECTED INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH OF US). WE'RE GOING TO KEEP
THE HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW, BUT SINCE NOT MUCH WILL BE GOING ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE START TIME
OF A NEW WATCH (FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS) TO MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE TO COLDER OCCURS AREA WIDE WITH
RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH DIVES
DOWN THE COAST AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL DROP TO 1500-2000 FEET (LOCALLY POSSIBLY
EVEN LOWER DEPENDING ON INTENSITY AND DURATION OF PRECIP). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION, BUT
THIS TIME IMPACTING I-5 SOUTH OF WEED. RIGHT NOW, 6-12 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THAT AREA (WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT). AND, WE'LL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, TO INCLUDE THE
LOWER PASSES WEST OF THE CASCADES AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME VALLEY
FLOORS. ILLINOIS VALLEY MAY BE ONE SUCH LOCATION. WHILE WE DO
EXPECT SNOW IN THE CASCADES AS WELL, AMOUNTS OVER A 24-HOUR PERIOD
(6-10") DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AT WATCH AT THIS TIME (AN
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE), BUT WE'LL LET SOME MORE DATA COME IN AND
REASSESS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS THE COLD
POOL ALOFT DRIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT,
THIS WILL BE WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST, PROBABLY
DOWN TO 1000 FEET (LOCALLY LOWER WHERE PRECIP DURATION/INTENSITY
IS GREATER) AT TIMES. KEEP IN MIND THAT WE HAVE BEEN VERY MILD
DURING THE PAST MONTH OR LONGER, SO GROUND TEMPS ARE ABNORMALLY
WARM AND SNOW AMOUNTS ON VALLEY FLOORS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. EVEN IF SNOW IS FALLING FROM THE SKY
MUCH OF IT WILL JUST MELT ON IMPACT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.
BUT, IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS, KEEP CHECKING THE FORECASTS FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND ANY WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
PERSISTENT NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
(WED NIGHT-FRI) AND THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD, SHOWERY PATTERN IN
PLACE, THOUGH SOME RECENT MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN
THE ACTION THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL RESERVE JUDGMENT
ON THAT, HOWEVER.
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF 72 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE
NBM FOR MONDAY 4PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY 4PM:
* MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM THE CASCADES WEST: 60-95% FOR
SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER.
* CASCADES AND MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY: 70-90%
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 4500 FT).
* MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA (DOWN TO I-5): 60-80% CHANCE FOR 6
INCHES OF SNOW, 40-60% CHANCE FOR 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
* LOWER PASSES ON I-5 NEAR CANYON MOUNTAIN AND SEXTON SUMMIT:
40-60% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW, 20-30% FOR 3 INCHES.
* HAYES HILL, CAMAS MOUNTAIN, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY, AREAS IN AND
AROUND ASHLAND, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY: 40-60% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW, 20-30% FOR 3 INCHES.
* VALLEY FLOORS - 20-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1") DOWN TO LOWER
VALLEYS SUCH AS MEDFORD, GRANTS PASS AND CANYONVILLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWEST SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT PRECIP MAY BE MORE SPARSE BY THEN.
AVIATION...14/06Z TAFS...RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS BRINGING MVFR TO IFR LEVELS TO NORTH BEND. LEVELS ALONG THE
OREGON COAST WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE. SHOWERS MOVING INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING MVFR LEVELS TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CEILINGS
LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY MAY KEEP LEVELS AT MVFR OR IFR.
OTHER INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT 5000-6000 FEET, KEEPING SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BELOW EXPECTED LEVELS AS WELL AS OBSCURING
ELEVATED TERRAIN. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2026... A
LONG PERIOD SWELL 9 TO 14 FEET AT 15 SECONDS IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND LINGER IN THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BISECT THE WATERS WITH WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS (20-25
KT) IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, WHILE SE WINDS (LIGHTER) ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OVERALL, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO NW. BUT, SEAS THEN
BUILD AGAIN AND ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH AND STEEP ON TUESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ080-082-083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
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