454
FXUS66 KMFR 141904
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1204 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON WILL PRODUCE CALM, MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM MONDAY'S
TEMPERATURES, BUT CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SOME COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH WE CAN ALREADY SEE IN RADAR
IMAGERY OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL CITIES LOOK TO SEE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WHILE COASTAL RANGES COULD SEE AROUND 2
INCHES. RAINFALL IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
0.75 AND 1 INCH, WITH OTHER VALLEYS AND BASINS SEEING LOWER
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOVER AT 4500-5500 FEET FROM THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINTER IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, GIVEN THAT
SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CASCADES ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SPC GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR LATE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND THE USUAL
EXPOSED AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.
WITH MID-LEVEL MODEL WINDS APPROACHING 55 KTS, GUSTS ALONG WINTER
RIM/SUMMER LAKE AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO 55 MPH
IN THAT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EAST SIDE
AREAS.
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA EASES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT A COLD AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BRING IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KLAMATH
COUNTY VALLEYS ARE ALL FORECAST TO SEE LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S ON THESE NIGHTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BRING CHANCES OF FROST
OR FREEZING CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE CASCADES, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
CHILLY NIGHTS ASIDE, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY. WHILE SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO 1500-2000 FEET IN THE MORNING, DECLINING ACTIVITY
WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINTER CONDITIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM
DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY IS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WHILE DETAILS ARE STILL COARSE, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ALOFT IN IMAGERY TEND TO INDICATE STRONGER WINDS, AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERNS TEND TO DELIVER MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND COASTAL TERRAIN. DETAILS REMAIN COARSE
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
CONTINUING ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR
CEILINGS, BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY ALONG THE COAST COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR (CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) FOR INLAND SITES AT
THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS AN 8%-18% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS INLAND.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 14, 2026
SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A FRONT WILL START PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, STRONG WINDS, AND
STEEP SEAS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE NORTH
OF COOS BAY AS THE FRONT INITIALLY STARTS TO TRANSITION OVER THE
WATERS. STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS THIS
WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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