934
FXUS66 KMFR 010916
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
216 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS...
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY.
* MILD TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND THURSDAY.
* NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY...STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING
AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - PATTERN BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH
COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO
EXPECT DAILY MARINE PUSHES OF LOW CLOUDS INTO COOS COUNTY AND THE
UMPQUA BASIN DURING THE NIGHTTIME/MORNING HOURS, WITH CLEARING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME CUMULUS
BUILD UPS TO MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LOW
CHANCES (5% OR LESS) FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND
WARMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS BY SATURDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, TO THE NORTHWEST, AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PACNW COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE
DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A
LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND
MORESO, ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
FROM THE CASCADES EAST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT, WE MAY SEE PERIODS
OF ENHANCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS STARTING AROUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WHICH COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...01/06Z TAFS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOW END VFR/MVFR STRATUS TO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF
THE SISKIYOUS UNTIL 17-18Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER CLEARING IN THE MORNING,
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY GUSTS 20-25 KT. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY, JUNE 30, 2026
STRONG
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE, RESULTING IN VERY STEEP SEAS AND AREAS OF
GALES FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH OF
THESE AREAS, A COMBINATION OF FRESH SWELL AND NORTH WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH LATER PARTS OF THIS
WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS MOST THE WATERS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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