148
FXUS66 KMFR 111257
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2022
DISCUSSION
11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. IT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH, WEAKENING FRIDAY BEFORE WHAT REMAINS OF IT MOVES
ONSHORE SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR US
HAS MOVED EAST, AND THUS SO HAS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. NO SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE MEDFORD FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IT WILL
REMAIN HOT OVER THE INLAND AREAS, AND MODERATE WINDS ALOFT WILL
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIE
DOWN FROM SATURDAY ON AS THE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH, BUT A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE VERY HOT OVER THE AREA, THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS IT
WAS IN LATE JULY. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CREEPS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH REDEVELOPS AND THE DOOR OPENS TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS
LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD INTO
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO
BE ALLOWING FOR THESE CEILINGS TO SUSTAIN AND SPREAD IN THE MARINE
AIR. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING THE
LOWER CEILINGS SPREAD OUT ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL REMAIN LIFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME LIFTING CEILINGS TO IFR WITH SURFACE HEATING. FARTHER INLAND
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY THAN
THEY ARE TODAY AND VFR IS LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
~SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 11 AUGUST 2022
LOW CLOUD
AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE WATERS INTO THE MORNING, AND
THEN WILL THIN AND DIMINISH IN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS,
DOMINATED BY A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL, WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AREA IS THEN LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE VARIABLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
MORE DEFINITIVELY NORTHERLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE NORTH WINDS STEEPEN SEAS. ~BTL/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 11 AUGUST 2022
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE RIDGES AND ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENING AND LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, SEE PDXRFWMFR
FOR DETAILS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIE DOWN FROM SATURDAY ON AS THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY, WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST MAY BRING POOR RH RECOVERIES AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TO
THE RIDGES THIS WEEKEND. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CREEPS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ624.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ284-285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
15/15/11
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