776
FXUS66 KMFR 282214
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
214 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE THE NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY) WILL BE ONE OF N-NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK, LOW-IMPACT "INSIDE SLIDER" WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF A SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER RIDGE PARKED OFF
THE WEST COAST (OUT NEAR 140W). THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS
EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST INTO IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAD
BEEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING,
BUT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HAVE ENDED. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 40N
135W PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE NORCAL COAST.
STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
VALLEY FOG/FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS AND EXPANDED AREAL
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP A BIT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS. SO, WE HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT IN THE GOING
FORECAST. THIS MEANS THERE IS ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AFTER ABOUT 7 PM PST SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING FROM AROUND 5500 FEET TO 4000-4500 FEET.
EVEN SO, SNOW AMOUNTS, SHOULD THEY OCCUR, LOOK TO BE 1 INCH OR
LESS. THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF A FEW DRIPS HERE IN MEDFORD
DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. BUT, WE'RE REALLY GRASPING
AT STRAWS HERE. IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THEN YET ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
ARRIVES IN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACNW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS ONE COULD CAUSE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON N-NW BREEZES
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST SIDE. AGAIN,
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS, HIGHEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO IN THE NORTH AND OVER THE EAST SIDE.
A STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL THEN SET UP NEAR 40N AND 140W AROUND MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SETTLES INTO CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN. THE
SOURCE OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE 12Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS THE DEVELOPMENT (OR NOT) OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN/CALIFORNIA AND ITS PROGRESSION
(OR NOT) NEXT FRIDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS (MOSTLY ECMWF)
FAVOR CONSOLIDATION OF ENERGY (UPPER LOW) NEAR CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY WITH RETROGRESSION OFFSHORE AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF A
REX BLOCK (HIGH OVER LOW) OFF THE WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD DISPLACE THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET FARTHER NORTH AND KEEP
OUR AREA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE (THUS DRIER,
MILDER CONDITIONS). WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS (MOSTLY
GEFS, BUT ALSO CMC) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
TO REMAIN NEARBY (COOLER, WETTER). THE TREND IN THE RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A DRIER SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND
THIS FOLLOWS THE CPC 6-10 DAY FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS ODDS FAVORING
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SW OREGON AND
NORCAL DEC 4-8. CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN POPS, ESPECIALLY CASCADES NORTH AND WEST, BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE BASED ON THE SCENARIOS MENTIONED ABOVE. KEEP
CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES! -SPILDE
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
OVERALL, ASIDE FROM LOCAL MVFR/IFR ALONG
THE COAST, THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE VFR.
BUT, AREAS OF VALLEY LIFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW LATER THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UMPQUA/ROGUE/ILLINOIS AND
LOWER KLAMATH BASINS. THESE SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2025
CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS EASE, BUT STEEP SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT NORTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE AND
REMAIN GUSTY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
COULD RETURN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 7 TO 10 FT AT 16 TO
19 SECONDS) BUILDS IN THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF
UPDATED 200 PM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER
28, 2025...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A LOW SNEAKER THREAT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A 3-5 FT SWELL @ 15-16 SECONDS BUILDS TO A
PEAK (6-9 FT @ 14 SECONDS) BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER RISK FOR
SNEAK WAVES, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A DISTANT STORM WILL
CREATE A LONG PERIOD SWELL, AND BUOY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SWELL TO BRING A HIGH SNEAKER WAVE THREAT
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING MONDAY, FIRST ARRIVING
AT AROUND 3 TO 5 FT AT 21 TO 22 SECONDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
COINCIDES WITH THE INCOMING HIGH TIDE THAT IS ANTICIPATED BY 8 AM
PST MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. WE'VE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY A FEW HOURS AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 TO 10 FT AT 16 TO 18
SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE CURRENTLY DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO VISIT THE COAST NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL AND
CONSIDER RESCHEDULING YOUR VENTURES TO THE BEACHES FOR ANOTHER DAY.
SNEAKER WAVES RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON BEACHES THAN NORMAL.
THESE WAVES CAN WASH OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES AND CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK
PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THEY CAN
ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE
CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
/BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
MAS/BR-Y
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