141
FXUS66 KMFR 161152
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
452 AM PDT THU APR 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IS NEARLY ABSENT. COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WEST SIDE
VALLEYS STARTING THE DAY OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHILE AREAS TO
THE EAST ARE STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH THOSE LAST SHOWERS TRAILING OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST.
LINGERING COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
ROGUE, APPLEGATE, ILLINOIS, AND PARTS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY
FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, AS THAT VALLEY RUNS A LITTLE WARMER.
A MORE STABLE PATTERN LOOKS TO GUIDE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
PERIOD. COASTAL AREAS MAY REACH THE LOW 60S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. TO THE EAST, EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS AND BASINS ARE ON THE MID TO HIGH 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT ITS MODELED
BEHAVIOR SEEMS TO CHANGE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS ON
SUNDAY, AND EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLES FOR BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE 50-60% CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT NORTH BEND ON SUNDAY,
WITH CHANCES DECREASING FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW DIPS FARTHER SOUTH
BEFORE HOVERING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING SHOWERS FOCUSED ON CURRY AND SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS OF 5000-6000 FEET AT THIS POINT WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT
WIDESPREAD WINTER IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN. THE MODELED
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.
OVERALL, NOTHING IN THIS SYSTEM'S FORECAST BEHAVIOR LOOKS
ESPECIALLY THREATENING, BUT THIS IS A VERY PRELIMINARY
IMPRESSION. CHANCES OF WINDS EXCEEDING 35 MPH (A SPEED SAFELY
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS) ARE MINIMAL IN NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, TOPPING OUT AT 20-40% OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN MODOC
COUNTY AND 10-20% OVER SOME OTHER EAST SIDE PEAKS THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN FAVOR GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER NEARBY TERRAIN, BUT MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL THIS FAR OUT. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS STAY
IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE. CURRY COUNTY, WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AND THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THIS TIMEFRAME. BUT TO REPEAT, EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM COULD CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HOLD OF ITS POTENTIAL.
PAST WEDNESDAY, DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY STARTS TO DIVERGE. METEOGRAM
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME EXPECTATION OF A WARM, DRY PERIOD TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. -TAD
AVIATION...16/12Z TAFS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS HANGING OVER
ROSEBURG, VFR LEVELS CONTINUE TO START THE TAF PERIOD. A STABLE
PATTERN WILL HELP TO BREAK UP LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING INTO THE EVENING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 16, 2026
GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS IN ALL WATERS PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE SOME THIS EVENING, BUT A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND STEEP
SEAS SOUTH OF OPHIR INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MARINE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ027.
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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