183
FXUS66 KMFR 311338
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
538 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION
THE LAST FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
RANGE. ACCUMULATION TOTALS MAXED OUT AT 0.02 INCHES NEAR COQUILLE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
IS AROUND 1-2 DEGREES IN MEDFORD, GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG AND THE
VISIBILITY HAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY HERE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. PLUS THE DRY GROUND WON'T HELP HERE
AS IT HASN'T RAINED MUCH OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH DRIER AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DAILY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG STARTING TO BUILD HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
SO SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE RAIN FALLING OVER THE REGION. THE COAST
WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH UP TO 0.25 INCHES AROUND BROOKINGS AND
NORTH BEND. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY THE
FARTHER ONE MOVES EAST. MEDFORD MIGHT MISS OUT ON ANY RAIN AND THE
EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ANY
CASE, THIS IS A LOW IMPACT FRONT WITH SOME WETTING RAIN ALONG THE
COAST.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO TUESDAY. STAGNANT AIR WOULD BE THE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER HERE AS WE COULD STRUGGLE TO MIX TO 1000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL HERE IN THE VALLEY. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE
AND NO FOG COULD HELP PREVENT AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY, BUT WE
STILL HAVE THE LOWER WINTER SUN ANGLES AND WEAK MIXING. PLUS WOOD
BURNING COULD BE ENHANCED WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE'RE STILL
FORECASTING NEAR FREEZING AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE USUALLY WARM. DATA SHOWS EFI
VALUES AROUND 0.7 TO 0.8 BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH
SUGGESTS PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOVE THE CLIMATE MEAN AROUND
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL APPROACH SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS. ENSEMBLES
ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE 7TH, THEN
THINGS COULD START TO CHANGE AFTER THAT. WE'RE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND 0Z ON THE 8TH.
-SMITH
AVIATION...31/12 TAFS
FOG IS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
THIN OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL BRING VIRGA AND
PERHAPS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST SATURDAY, JANUARY 31, 2026
HIGH
AND STEEP SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WATERS AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH AND STEEP AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER
CRAFTS DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER ELEVATED SWELL GROUP WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH SWELLS AROUND 12 TO 13 FEET AT
15 TO 16 SECONDS. SEAS LOWER BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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