792
FXUS66 KMFR 141201
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PST SAT DEC 14 2019
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND SNOW HAS MOVED EAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
BRIEF RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM
OFFSHORE THAT HAS MOVED INSIDE OF 130W. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE RELATED TO THE EXTENT OF INLAND
PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO
EARLIER FORECASTS IN KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS COASTWARD
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS INLAND TO ABOUT THE
CASCADES. THE LEAST CONFIDENCE HERE IS BASICALLY EVERYWHERE INLAND
FROM THE COAST RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THEN,
DESPITE RIDGING BUILDING IN, SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW - ON THE ORDER OF 20 OR 30 PERCENT, INCREASING A BIT
SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THEREAFTER, THE ONSET OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT LOOMS STARTING LATE-WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT A PROLONGED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL IMPACT THE REGION STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CURRENT GFS AND EC ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE CAMP
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ALLOWING FOR A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ROOTED NORTH OF HAWAII AIMED INTO THE PACNW.
TOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS LEAD TIME,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF ABOUT 3 DAYS, A 5-10
INCH EVENT FOR THE SOUTH COAST LOOKS REASONABLE AT FIRST GLANCE.
WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS SHAPES UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE WE RAMP UP MESSAGING. STAVISH
AVIATION...FOR THE 14/12Z TAFS
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE REGION.THE SOLID DECK IS KEEPING
VISIBILITIES UP, EXCEPT FOR NEAR ROSEBURG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO MVFR TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, DROPPING AGAIN TO MVFR TO
IFR AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 345 AM PST SATURDAY, 14 DECEMBER 2019
HEAVY
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO SUNDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND, SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER,
AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN MOVES INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY, AND WITH BUILDING SEAS, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. IN THE MEANTIME, PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH A RELATIVE BREAK EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /BR-Y/SVEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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