368
FXUS66 KMFR 120537
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1033 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 155 PM PDT SAT APR 11 2026/
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY
GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ALSO LACKING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 15% CHANCE OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITHIN ABOUT 20 KM OF ANY LOCATION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WE LOWERED THE QPF A BIT BASED ON WHAT THE LATEST MODELS WERE
SHOWING AS THEY SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE TOO WET. THIS HAS DROPPED
DOWN OUR SNOW TOTALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, WE STILL KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS SOME IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER CALIFORNIA STATE
HIGHWAY 3 IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE ARE FORECASTING 6 INCHES
OVER THAT HIGHWAY ABOVE 5000 FEET. OVERALL, PRETTY MINIMAL IMPACT
HERE.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER
TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE A BIT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH THE LOW RIGHT OVER US ON SUNDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF POP UP SHOWERS IN THE COOLER CENTER OF THIS LOW. THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT
AGAIN, MOSTLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
EVENTUALLY, ALL THIS STUFF WILL MOVE EASTWARDS AND A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE OREGON COAST MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THIS SHORTWAVE PRODUCES
ENOUGH LIFT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOTABLY LOWER ON MONDAY AND ONE WILL ONLY SEE A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY IS THE RELATIVE DRY BREAK FOR OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE ENSEMBLES
ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME EVEN SHOWING 1"
AN HOUR OVER 6 HOURS, WHICH GIVES US HINTS THERE COULD BE TRAVEL
IMPACTS. IN ANY CASE, CRATER LAKE AND OTHER HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD
SEE A QUICK 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE MINOR IMPACTS ON THE HIGHER PASSES SINCE THIS IS
FALLING ALONG A FRONT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50'S HERE IN MEDFORD
AND MID TO LOWER 50'S ACROSS ALL OTHER POPULATED AREAS IN SOUTHERN
OREGON. SNOW LEVELS WILL ACTUALLY DIP TO 2500 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH TELLS YOU HOW COOL THE AIR IS AND HOW
STEEP THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE DURING THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NEXT TO NOTHING, SO NO SNOW AROUND 2500 FEET THURSDAY.
-SMITH
AVIATION...12/06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5% TONIGHT, 5-15% SUNDAY) FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR FOR INLAND AREAS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT SATURDAY, APRIL 11, 2026
SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN STEEP.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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