800
FXUS66 KMFR 142339
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
339 PM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH A LOW SPLITTING TO THE
SOUTH AND TAKING IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING MILD
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND COOLING OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
FOG WILL RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT. COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY ALLOW EAST SIDE BASINS,
INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS, TO SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOW THE
FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE A LOW DEVELOPS AND SPINS TO THE SOUTH, SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN
FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE AGAIN, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD
BE THE INFLUENTIAL FACTOR TO BRINGING RAINFALL TO CURRY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION. ECMWF FORECASTS
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT MOUNT SHASTA CITY ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
WHILE THE GFS GENERALLY PREDICTS LESS THAN AN INCH. AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH LOOK EVEN LOWER. A DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SPLIT IS
THE MAIN FACTOR BEHIND THIS DIFFERENCE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN IN THE 7000-8000 FOOT RANGE FOR SUNDAY
THEN DROPPING TO 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE ON MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO CASCADES PASSES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES TO
SAWYERS BAR ROAD WEST OF ETNA. IF PRECIPITATION IS STEADY ENOUGH,
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT ON I-5 OR SNOWMANS HILL
SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89 (~4500 FEET EACH) IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
BUT SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
WITH THE FRONT PAST THE AREA BUT AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
AREA TO START NEXT WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. DAYTIME HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO
BE IN THE HIGH 40S TO MID 50S, WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. EAST OF THE CASCADES, MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS IN
THE LOW 40S, WITH MID TO HIGH 30S OVER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS EAST
OF THE CASCADES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S. FOR MANY WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, HIGHS 20S TO LOW 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME VERSION OF A FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UMPQUA VALLEY LOOKS TO STAY WARM
ENOUGH TO AVOID FROSTY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY COULD MAKE THIS PERIOD IF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALLOWS
FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE AND FOG CAN “TRAP” SURFACE
WARMTH AND KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF FROST CONDITIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE AREA IN THE MID-TO-LATE
WEEK, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AGREEMENT BUT OVERALL MEANINGFUL
UNCERTAINTY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY NOW SHOW THE
SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST THE AREA, WITH METEOGRAM GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
MODELS SHOWING A RANGE OF AMOUNTS BETWEEN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND
MULTIPLE INCHES FOR MOUNT SHASTA CITY. THERE’S SOME ADDITIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE IF
THE SYSTEM DOES BRING SOME MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION AND WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY’LL STAY OUT OF HAZARDOUS RANGES. OVERALL, FOR BOTH THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY COLD FRONT AND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS POINT. -TAD
AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THEY WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT. THIS COULD
LIMIT OR EVEN PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONE GREY AREA COULD BE THE
MEDFORD TERMINAL DUE TO A BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL DECK WHICH
MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO FORM TOWARDS 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AT MEDFORD, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
AGAIN FOR THE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE ONCE NEW DATA COMES IN.
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOUD DECK DIMINISHING DURING
THE MORNING SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 17Z.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2025
SOUTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY, WEAKENING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A MIX OF A GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST SWELL AND ELEVATED
WIND SEAS DUE TO THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERALL
BY THIS EVENING, WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS LOOK WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE RECENT ONE, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES AS WELL,
PEAKING IN THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE AT AROUND 13 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY, THEN IMPROVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH NO PARTICULAR STORM LOOKS OVERLY STRONG AT THIS TIME.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
TAD/JWG
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