148  
FXUS66 KMFR 111257  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
307 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.  
 
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. IT WILL MOVE  
SLOWLY NORTH, WEAKENING FRIDAY BEFORE WHAT REMAINS OF IT MOVES  
ONSHORE SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR US  
HAS MOVED EAST, AND THUS SO HAS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. NO SHOWERS  
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE MEDFORD FORECAST AREA  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IT WILL  
REMAIN HOT OVER THE INLAND AREAS, AND MODERATE WINDS ALOFT WILL  
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF  
THE CASCADES AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIE  
DOWN FROM SATURDAY ON AS THE WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH, BUT A WARMING  
TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.  
 
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK LOOKS TO BE VERY HOT OVER THE AREA, THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS IT  
WAS IN LATE JULY. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CREEPS BACK  
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FOUR CORNERS  
HIGH REDEVELOPS AND THE DOOR OPENS TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE. IT  
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE  
END OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS
 
LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD INTO  
SECTIONS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO  
BE ALLOWING FOR THESE CEILINGS TO SUSTAIN AND SPREAD IN THE MARINE  
AIR. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING THE  
LOWER CEILINGS SPREAD OUT ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
IT WILL REMAIN LIFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD EXPECT  
SOME LIFTING CEILINGS TO IFR WITH SURFACE HEATING. FARTHER INLAND  
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY THAN  
THEY ARE TODAY AND VFR IS LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM MVFR  
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.  
~SMITH  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 11 AUGUST 2022
 
LOW CLOUD  
AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE WATERS INTO THE MORNING, AND  
THEN WILL THIN AND DIMINISH IN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS,  
DOMINATED BY A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL, WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.  
WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AREA IS THEN LIKELY TO  
BECOME MORE VARIABLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING  
MORE DEFINITIVELY NORTHERLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY  
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATER  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE NORTH WINDS STEEPEN SEAS. ~BTL/SMITH  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 11 AUGUST 2022
 
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH  
BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE RIDGES AND ACROSS THE  
EAST SIDE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES  
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENING AND LIKELY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER  
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, SEE PDXRFWMFR  
FOR DETAILS.  
 
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIE DOWN FROM SATURDAY ON AS THE WINDS ALOFT  
DIMINISH, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY, WITH HOT  
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH  
NEAR THE COAST MAY BRING POOR RH RECOVERIES AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TO  
THE RIDGES THIS WEEKEND. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CREEPS  
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS  
AND EVENINGS.  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ624.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
FOR ORZ624.  
 
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ284-285.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
FOR CAZ284-285.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 
15/15/11  
 
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