251
FXUS66 KMFR 232323
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
LAYER OF MARINE CLOUDS LYING ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE. THIS AREA
OF CLOUDS IS LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. ALSO, SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA, AND
THESE ARE ABOUT THE ONLY VISUAL SIGN WE HAVE FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SOME SMALL CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
THE OREGON CASCADES, AND WITH THE HELP OF THE SHORTWAVE, A FEW OF
THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LATTER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW, AND WITH
SOMEWHAT INCREASED MOISTURE, THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREAS,
BUT ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE IN ADDITION.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM, ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY AS
HOT AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW TRENDING JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT JUST LOWER ENOUGH TO BRING US OUT OF CONCERNS
FOR HEAT INJURIES. SO, THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
IN A SOMEWHAT STRANGE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME WETTING RAINS (ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
FARTHER NORTH) AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL, THE
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THINGS FEELING
MORE SPRING-ISH, OR LIKE MAY OR EARLY JUNE. MOST AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES WILL RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE, BUT AREAS ALONG
THE COAST, IN THE COASTAL RANGES, AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND
THE CASCADES CREST COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO BRING GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER TERRAIN
IN SISKIYOU COUNTY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS CONTINUED
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER AND SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES, WITH
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST AND AT COASTAL SITES TODAY, MAINTAINING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING 17-20Z.
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE TYPICAL
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON BREEZES. CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER NEAR THE MT SHASTA/MEDICINE LAKES
REGION.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT TUESDAY, JUNE 23, 2026
BREEZY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, THEN OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY. THEN A COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST,
LIGHT RAIN AND A MODEST INCREASE IN FRESH WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-370-376.
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