446
FXUS66 KMFR 181539
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2019
DISCUSSION
830 AM SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A MARINE PUSH AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS
MARINE LAYER IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THING TO
NOTE IS A BIT OF WISPY SMOKE TRAVELING DOWN THE KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY TOWARD HAPPY CAMP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE WINDS TURN TO BE MORE FROM THE NORTH AND BREEZY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. -SCHAAF
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 339 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY, THEN
OVER TIME WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. IN A NUTSHELL THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLING OVER OUR AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. SO THE DAYS OF 90+ DEGREES HIGH TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME
BEING.
THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE KLAMATH BASIN STANDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS BECAUSE WE'LL HAVE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. BEHIND IT WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR FROST ADVISORIES OUT, BUT IT MAY BE SOME THING
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE IF DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS.
OTHERWISE WERE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF OUT AREA.
THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE FIRST HINT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN
LARGER UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW VARIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS POSITION PUTS THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ECMWF IS OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH FAVORS A DRY SCENARIO. FOR NOW
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OF NOTE: THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MIXED SOLUTION WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SOME MEMBERS FAVORING THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND OTHER THE GFS. HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED
SUGGEST A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE THE AREA WITH A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET (NEAR-IFR) RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA (THOUGH LESSER WIND
THERE). -KEENE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 18 JUNE 2019...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND STRONG NORTH WINDS AND A MIX OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 3 NM FROM SHORE TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THEN CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY, MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY
BUT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND EXPECT STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS.
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -CC
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT TUESDAY 18 JUNE 2019...DRY
WEATHER WITH NO THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOLING DOWN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND IS REPLACED WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE AREA.
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RH
RECOVERIES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
OVER THE RIDGES OF FIRE ZONES 618,619 620 AND FIRE ZONE 280 IN
CALIFORNIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND. HOWEVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES IN WESTERN FIRE ZONE 280
COULD STILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.
FUEL MOISTURES HAVE NOT REACHED CRITICAL LEVELS YET, SO
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL BE HEADLINES
IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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