389
FXUS66 KMFR 100515
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 PM PDT THU APR 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
RADAR ECHOS ARE INCREASING IN DENSITY THIS LATE
MORNING AHEAD OF THIS CUT OFF LOW. WE'LL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.
LATEST FORECASTS STILL SHOWING 500 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR STORM UPDRAFTS BASED OFF OF THE KMFR HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDING. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ALSO LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA, SO THE 5-10% MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SEEMS ON POINT FROM
SPC THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL NUDGE CLOSE TO SHORE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THIS AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DROPS TO 5% OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE VALLEY
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG FILL IN IF WE CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS REMAINS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING WITHIN
20 KM OF ANY POINT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED(30-60%) DEPENDING ON
EXACT LOCATION.
THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC. THE MAIN IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WON'T BE A MASSIVE SNOW EVENT, BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN(6000FT+) COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ARE POPPING OUT ON OUR RISK MAPS AND
THOSE RIDGES AND HIGHER PEAKS ARE FORECAST TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN
THE CASCADES.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NOTHING REALLY STOOD OUT ON THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX(EFI). THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDING DOWN THE NORTH WEST, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER MORE
UNSTABLE AIR AND MORE SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST REGION. THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AROUND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DURING THIS TIME WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. 10% OF THE ENS MEMBERS SHOW THE CASCADES SEEING
ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY. SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO GET SOME
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS HERE IN EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION...10/06Z TAFS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EASED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. IN SPITE OF THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY, VFR
LEVELS ARE PRESENT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AND RAWS SITES.
WHILE FOG IS NOT PRESENT IN GUIDANCE, SOME PATCHY DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOW CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE FORECASTS FOR
ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD, BUT WOULD CLEAR ON FRIDAY MORNING IF THEY
DEVELOP. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH GENERALLY CELLULAR
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EASE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 2026
FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING LESS THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE BREEZY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND SEAS
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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