880
FXUS66 KMFR 272158
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2023
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT (5/27) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(5/29)...CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INDEED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN ALL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST DEVELOPED IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, SUGGESTING THAT
THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WE ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS. IN PARTICULAR, MODOC COUNTY
HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ALREADY WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO,
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE STORMS ARE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING.
SHOULD THE STORMS FORM INTO A CLUSTER OR TRAIN (MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA ONE RIGHT AFTER THE OTHER), PONDING OF WATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP IN COMPLEX TERRAIN. HOWEVER, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED; BUT THAT WILL NOT NATURALLY SUPPRESS
CELLS THAT OVERACHIEVE.
TODAY IS THE BIG THUNDERSTORM DAY AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE WEEK
IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER OUR
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY STAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES--ALTHOUGH THAT LINE OF THOUGHT IS NOT QUITE WORKING OUT
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NOT HOT. WE STILL ARE
EXPECTING MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY 12Z UNTIL SATURDAY 12Z.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER ON TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO SHUFFLE ON IN. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NBM TRENDS
TEMPERATURES COOLER BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH. A PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM THEME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AREA OF
CONCERN REMAINS IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. IT SEEMS
THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT AS THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS LOWER
IN THIS AREA AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS NOTABLY HIGHER.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAKE A TREND HIGHER
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TRENDING LOWER(10-20%) OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOME OF THE
SYNOPTIC DETAILS, SO THESE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES SEEM MORE CONFIDENT IN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED IN UPPER TO
MID 80'S WITHIN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70'S EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
OVERALL, PRETTY NORMAL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS NOTHING
STANDS OUT AS EXTREME IN THE ENSEMBLE TOOL SETS. THE ONLY WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LIGHTNING OVER SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...27/18Z TAFS
A MARINE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE OREGON COAST, BRINGING LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL. INLAND AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY THIS MORNING. ALONG THE COAST, VISIBILITIES WILL CLEAR LATER
THIS MORNING AND CEILINGS MAY RAISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING
INLAND, SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. -TAD/HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, MAY 27
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL RESUME TODAY ACROSS ALL WATERS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. LOCALIZED AREAS OF GALE WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. -TAD/HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page