053
FXUS66 KMFR 151101
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PDT WED APR 15 2026
DISCUSSION
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
FALLING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF AND ALONG THE CASCADES, WITH A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS GETTING FARTHER EAST. TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
SNOWFALL AROUND DIAMOND LAKE AS WELL AS ALONG PARTS OF HIGHWAY 97
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE UMPQUA
AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE CASCADES IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SPC GUIDANCE KEEPING 80-
90% CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER PEAKS
AND RIDGELINES AND 60-80% CHANCES FOR NEIGHBORING AREAS.
SNOWFALL OVER THE CASCADES CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT AT
DECREASING RATES. RAINFALL WILL REACH THE ROGUE AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER BROAD
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL. PRECIPITATION AND WINDS EASE
INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2500 FEET LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD REACH 1500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT, ONLY SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
WIDESPREAD WINTER IMPACTS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS
LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
CONCERNS. LOCALIZED FREEZING CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS, NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH
COVERS THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, AS THERE'S SOME
QUESTION HOW COLD THAT NIGHT WILL GET.
A NUMBER OF HAZARD PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE TO FURTHER COMMUNICATE THE
IMPACTS OF THIS ACTIVE PERIOD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AND ABOVE 4000 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NORTH OF ALTURAS IN
MODOC COUNTY HIGHLIGHTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN COARSE, WITH SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OUTCOMES. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT TENDS
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT CURRY COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, PER ECMWF IMAGERY. OR IT MIGHT BOUNCE OFF A RIDGE
AND LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY, PER GFS
IMAGERY. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS ARE IN THE 5000-7000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH
WOULD LIMIT WINTER IMPACTS. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND MONDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM BEHAVES. -TAD
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IFR (CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) FOR INLAND SITES AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS AN 8%-18% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BECOMING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15, 2026
A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND STEEP SEAS TODAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF COOS BAY TODAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY, BUT A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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