462
FXUS66 KMFR 180249
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
749 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. HOWEVER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AND
INSTABLITY HAS RAISED CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, WESTERN MODOC COUNTY, NORTHERN
CASCADES TOWARDS CRATER LAKE, AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTY. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A FEW OF THE CAMS ALSO SHOW CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY NO MEANS IS THIS
A SLAM DUNK, BUT AT THE SAME TIME THIS IS HOT SOMETHING THAT CAN
AND SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED AND FELT IT WAS BEST TO LEAN ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS COULD SET UP IN EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE
AND KLAMATH COUNTY WHILE A COUPLE OF OTHERS ALONG WITH THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT
COULD PUT A CAP OR EVEN PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD END UP BEING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE, THUS THE NET RESULT BEING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...8/00Z TAFS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER MOST AREAS OFFSHORE ARE PUSHING INTO THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING, AND WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LOWER CEILINGS MAY ALSO MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN,
INCLUDING AT KRBG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BY
LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL BREEZES. -BPN/BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2025
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS TONIGHT. STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH POSSIBLE GALE
GUSTS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
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