137
FXUS66 KMFR 231724
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1024 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
* THE FRONT THURS/FRI WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXISTS ON THURSDAY FOR
BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR EASTSIDE AREAS
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD
TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OVER WESTSIDE AREAS, BUT LIGHT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FOR
SOME EASTSIDE AREAS. WE MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER WHICH DOESN'T LEAD
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE "BETTER" CHANCES FOR THIS TO COME
TO FRUITION. THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.25" OF RAINFALL OVER 48 HOURS
RANGES FROM 10% TO 90% FOR WESTSIDE AREAS, WITH THE CHANCES
HIGHEST ALONG/NEAR THE COAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASING AS YOU GO
EAST/INLAND. OFFICIAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.05" TO
AROUND 0.75" OVER ROUGHLY 36-48 HOURS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG/NEAR
THE COAST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. EASTSIDE AREAS
COULD SEE AROUND A TRACE TO AROUND 0.05" OF RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH FRIDAY HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED BREEZES AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES DROP FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. FOR EXAMPLE, MEDFORD MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 60S FOR A HIGH ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS/WARMER
LOCATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, EXPECTING A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN (BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR AROUND 19-
20Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY. ALONG THE
COAST, AREAS OF IFR/LIFR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE COQUILLE AND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS IFR AT NORTH BEND (OTH) DEVELOPING BETWEEN 04-09Z. HAVE
ADDED IFR TO THE TAF FOR NORTH BEND. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON TIMING.
MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS. NORTH WINDS RETURN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS ON THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE
BREEZY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS WITH LOW RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A WINDOW WHERE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY. THE WINDOW IS SHORT, AND
TEMPERATURES REALLY DROP OFF AS THE SYSTEM COMES THROUGH, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. THROUGH PEAK HEATING, RH
VALUES WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL OVER EASTSIDE
AREAS, BUT BY FAR AND LARGE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN OVER WESTSIDE AREAS. THE OTHER TRICKY PART WOULD BE IF ONE
OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ON THE EASTSIDE WHICH COULD
ALSO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHTNING. THIS IS A LOWER END CHANCE
GIVEN THE FACT RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL ARE VERY LOW FOR EASTSIDE
AREAS, BUT ITS NOT A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE. WILL HEADLINE THE THREAT
OF BREEZY WIND AND LOW RH FOR EASTSIDE AREAS ON THURSDAY TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ350-370.
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