975
FXUS66 KMFR 242341
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...25/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH TERRAIN OBSCURATION CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN
RECENT MOISTURE AND TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, ODDS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR
THE LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AND BRING THE RETURN OF LIFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 238 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025/
DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER REMAINS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT BROUGHT
DRIZZLY PRECIPITATION TO WEST SIDE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. REFRESHED SURFACE MOISTURE WOULD HELP SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONTINUING CLOUD COVER IS WORKING TO BOTH LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND WOULD LIMIT NIGHTTIME COOLING. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DENSE FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. NORTHERNMOST
COOS, DOUGLAS, AND KLAMATH COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE CHANCES OF THAT ARE
LOW TO MODERATE (10-40%). BEYOND THOSE SHOWERS, WARM AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ZONAL FLOW BEING TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL KEEP
BRINGING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, BUT WITHOUT A LIFTING
MECHANISM ONLY CONTINUING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
MORE WEST SIDE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH IMAGERY
SHOWING A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH AND PROVIDING SOME
INSTABILITY. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, WITH COASTAL
COUNTIES GETTING ABOUT 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY GETTING LOWER AMOUNTS WHILE OTHER AREAS STAY
DRY. OVERALL, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY BUT UNEVENTFUL.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US, BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE DETAILS FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT ARE ROUGH AND SHIFT DAY-BY-DAY. THERE'S SOME
AGREEMENT FOR UNIMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE BEYOND A
50/50 CHANCE IN EITHER DIRECTION ISN'T THERE YET. THERE'S MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOKS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMS, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MORE
NOTEWORTHY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, THESE COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE COAST WOULD REMAINS IN THE HIGH 30S TO MID 40S, WHILE MOST
WEST SIDE VALLEYS COULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE UMPQUA
VALLEY LOOKS TO STAY A BIT WARMER, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID
30S. EAST OF THE CASCADES, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S TO MID
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE SAFELY SHORT OF
HAZARD PRODUCT THRESHOLDS, THE DURATION AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THESE TEMPERATURES IS WORTH ACKNOWLEDGING.
LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY DIVERGES QUICKLY AFTER MONDAY
MORNING, MAKING ANY DESCRIPTION OF THIS PERIOD DIFFICULT. ENSEMBLE
METEOGRAMS DIVERGE AS WELL, WITH ECMWF OUTCOMES STAYING DRIER AND
GFS MEMBERS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EVEN IN THE DIVERGENCE, THERE'S NOTHING INDICATING ANY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24,
2025...RELATIVELY CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUTH
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A
FRESH SWELL AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE EXPECTING
SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL STEEP SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS, BUT ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY STEEP SEAS MAY COME TO FRUITION ACROSS OUR WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/COVERAGE DOES EXIST.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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