113
FXUS66 KMFR 031126
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
326 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND ILLINOIS/LOWER ROGUE VALLEYS WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE KLAMATH BASIN AS WELL AS THE MEDFORD AREA AROUND SUNRISE, AND
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z TODAY,
POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL 20Z IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY/GRANTS PASS AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SIMILAR AREAS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 239 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2026/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY/GRANTS PASS AREA.
SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES EARLY
MORNING FOG IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN AROUND SUNRISE,
BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY. ONCE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY LATE MORNING, SUNNY SKIES
AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN SIMILAR DAY TO DAY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS THAT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL, THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2026...IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS LOWER FOR A
BRIEF TIME. STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER BUILDING WEST SWELL ARRIVES AND COMBINES WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST SWELL. THESE STEEP SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN A FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BRING RAIN ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR STEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST SEAS ON THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS WEEKEND
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SAT/SUN
- SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 4500 SUN NIGHT
- NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
* MORNING FOG THRU THURS FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND SOME EAST SIDE
AREAS
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
- WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TODAY - THURSDAY
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE FOR ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS
- BROOKINGS MAY APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
FURTHER DETAILS:
THE FORECAST TURNS LARGELY DRY THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE MET AT
ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS MIDWEEK. RECORDS ARE 65 (FEB 4TH) AND 64
(FEB 5TH) FOR ALTURAS. RECORD IS 59 FOR KLAMATH FALLS ON FEB 5TH.
EACH OF THESE DAYS WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF THESE RECORDS.
A REX BLOCK (HIGH PRESSURE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW)
SETS UP AT 500MB OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP THE PATTERN STAGNANT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH OF
THIS REX BLOCK WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL HELP AID OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO
BREAK DOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC AND ENTERS THE PACNW. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AS THIS LOW COULD GET PUSHED TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS FROM
RAINFALL, BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW LEVELS AND WIND
SPEEDS. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR 6.0" OF SNOWFALL IN 24HRS
IS AROUND 40% THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A SMALL AREA AROUND CRATER
LAKE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT SIMILAR ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN, AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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