615
FXUS66 KMFR 241811
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1011 AM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
THE LAST PUNCH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER(AR) IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTABLE OR PERHAPS
SOME WOULD SAY SIGNIFICANT WITH NORTH BEND BREAKING A DAILY RECORD
OF 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON MONDAY. AWAY FROM THE COAST, TOTALS HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2.0 IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY WITH 0.5 INCHES
IN SOME OF OUR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
WE REMAIN IN THE PEAK OF THIS AR WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN COMING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN OUR WETTER SPOTS. ONE CAN
ALSO EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONSIDERED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS OVER
24 HOURS AND THE EFI AROUND 0.9 WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1.
HOWEVER, THESE FORECAST PARAMETERS HAVE NOT RESULTED IN REAL WORLD
IMPACTS YET. SMALL STREAMS ARE LIKELY RUNNING HIGH IN WILDERNESS
LOCATIONS BASED ON SOME DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL.
RIVERS ALSO SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RIVER HEIGHT
FORECASTS. THERE ARE FLOOD WATCHES OUT FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE AND MYRTLE POINT AS BOTH THOSE LOCATIONS WILL COME VERY
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
WE ALSO NOTED THE WIDE VARIETY OF SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY AROUND 9000 FEET AROUND MT.
ASHLAND AND DOWN TO 4000 FEET AROUND CHEMULT AS IT'S SNOWING THERE
BASED ON TRIPCHECK CAMERAS. THE WEATHER SENSORS NEAR THE CAMERAS
ARE ALSO REPORTING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
WINDS ALSO REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH WEED CA REPORTING GUSTS
TO 45 TO 50 MPH. SOME OF THOSE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP EAST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB WINDS PICK UP
AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MIXING UP TO 700 MB DOESN'T LOOK GREAT,
ALTHOUGH SOME OF OUR WINDIER SPOTS SHOULD GUST TO 50 MPH BASED ON
HOW IT USUALLY WORKS OUT THERE.
EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER TOPIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...24/18Z TAFS
RAINFALL FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON. LIFR CEILINGS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST, EVEN AS
RAIN HAS EASED OVER NORTH BEND. INLAND AREAS ARE GENERALLY SEEING
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS, ALTHOUGH CONTINUING SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS AND
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOME AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MINIMAL
GIVEN THE PERSISTING CEILINGS. IF CEILINGS BREAK FOR AREA VALLEYS
AND LOW-LYING AREAS, FOG CHANCES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY
INCREASE. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2026
SEAS
ARE HIGH AND STEEP THIS MORNING WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS STATE WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER
CRAFTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRESH SOUTHERLY
SWELL MOVES IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021>024-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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