592
FXUS66 KMFR 250115
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1248 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026/
THE FRONT IS ARRIVING, WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND TO
THE CASCADES AND WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LAKE
COUNTY FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH. AS IS
TYPICAL IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST NEAR WINTER RIM, INCLUDING THE SUMMER LAKE TO SILVER
LAKE VICINITY. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED OVER THE WARNER
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MODOC COUNTY.
VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE
WITH THIS FRONT, WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AT THE COAST AND IN
THE UPPER UMPQUA BASIN. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, AND WITH HIGH SNOW
LEVELS, NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS, AND
ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS, STILL LIMITED TO THE CASCADES
AND WEST SIDE IN OREGON AND FAR NORTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY.
WARMER AND DRIER AFTERNOON CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER A
BUILDING RIDGE ALLOW FOR A WIDER DIURNAL RANGE (COLDER MORNING
LOWS). BASED ON NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, AND DEPENDING
ON YOUR SPECIFIC LOCATION, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 50 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FROST AND/OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND WEST
SIDE VALLEYS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR MARCH, IT DOES FOLLOW A PERIOD OF RECORD
WARMTH THAT USHERED IN EARLY SPRING GROWTH, AND THIS SENSITIVE
VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY THE COLD TEMPERATURES. COLDER AREAS,
SUCH AS THE EAST SIDE, THE SCOTT VALLEY, AND THE SHASTA VALLEY
ARE STILL WELL WITHIN THE COLD SEASON, AND ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO
FREEZE.
THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A MORE ACTIVE, BUT ALSO MORE COMPLEX PATTERN
OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR
FRONTS OR PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON HOW AND WHEN A
LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCCURS. OVERALL, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE FLOW WILL TREND MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE, WETTER PATTERN AND COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...25/00Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING ONSHORE AS OF
THIS EVENING. RAIN IS FALLING ALONG THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO 1 1/2 MILES ALONG THE COAST.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE FRONT WITH VISIBILITIES
STILL DROPPING DOWN TO A MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT TUESDAY, MARCH 24, 2026
A COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE SOUTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
TODAY, WITH STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STEEP SEAS LINGER THIS
EVENING WHILE WINDS VEER TO WEST AND DIMINISH. SEAS BECOME SWELL
DOMINATED TONIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY AND BRIEFLY DIMINISHING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY WITH STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ALONG
WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP, WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN GALES ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIMITED TO THE OUTER PORTION OF THE WATERS WHILE FRESH
SWELL LIKELY ALSO CONTINUES STEEP SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ376.
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