773
FXUS66 KMFR 230944
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
244 AM PDT THU APR 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* SHOWERS LINGER INTO MONDAY
THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOL MORNING
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER. SOME LOCALIZED MORNING FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY IN WESTERN VALLEYS, SUCH AS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS.
A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A BROAD TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER CANADA SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-50%) AND
SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES EAST.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN WITH BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS (30-60%) ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LESS CHANCES (15-30%) WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOW CHANCES (5-20%) FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SPOTS THAT DO CLEAR OUT
LONG ENOUGH. FOR AREAS THAT DO CLEAR, EXPECT CHANCES (10-15%) FOR
IFR TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH VFR PREVAILING BY
AFTERNOON.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 23, 2026
NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STEEP SEAS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE
TODAY. CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER SLIGHTLY EARLY FRIDAY BUT MAY REMAIN
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. NORTH WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MOST
ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP.
WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER ON THE WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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