657
FXUS66 KMFR 252312
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
312 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...26/00Z TAFS
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME RAIN MOVING INTO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INLAND EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS
OF IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDENSDAY MORNING FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING AT
MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE MODERATE FOR IFR/LIFR IN VALLEYS
SINCE HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AND MAY LIMIT FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM
FORMING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR VALLEY
IFR/LIFR SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAF FOR ROSEBURG AND
MEDFORD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 125 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...THE WEEK WILL START OUT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS FROM
WEATHER, THEN A FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST THE AREA DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN LIMITED MAINLY TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDENSDAY MORNING IN
WESTERN VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, ILLINOIS AND
LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY MORNING AND
INLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA.
ENSEMBLES SHOW VARIABILITY ON WHICH AREAS WILL SEE RAIN THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN (80-100%) ALONG THE
COAST AND RAIN LIKELY (50-85% CHANCE) INLAND ACROSS JOSEPHINE AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CASCADES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE ARE CHANCES (10-40%) FOR RAIN ACROSS OTHER AREAS INCLUDING
JACKSON, JOSEPHINE AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE HIGH ON THURSDAY (6000-7500 FEET), LOWERING SLIGHTLY (TO
5500-6000 FEET) THURSDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT ONLY HIGHER PEAKS TO
SEE LIGHT SNOW WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, A COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN PLACE
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH CENTERED TO THE EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
WITH THIS PATTERN BEGINNING. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES AND OVER PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. OVERALL, MODELS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS INCREASES.
DRIER BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
A RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE REGION. EAST OF THE CASCADES, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL WITH LOWS EXPECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S (FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES) AND
LOCALLY IN THE 20S (FOR VALLEYS IN CENTRAL SISKIYOU).
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2025...RELATIVELY
CALMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SOUTH WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WE ARE EXPECTING TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART; HOWEVER, SOME
ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD BRIEFLY SEE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A
FRESH SWELL AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE EXPECTING
SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL STEEP SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS, BUT ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
CC/CC/CC
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