996
FXUS66 KMFR 151730
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1030 AM PDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING RAINFALL,
BREEZY WINDS, AND CEILINGS JUST ABOVE MVFR. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WE HAVE OMITTED ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, AND THIS MAY NEED FURTHER
EVALUATION FOR SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THAT SAID, AT THIS TIME KRBG HAS
THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ABOUT 25% OVERNIGHT.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 542 AM PDT WED APR 15 2026/
DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
FALLING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF AND ALONG THE CASCADES, WITH A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS GETTING FARTHER EAST. TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
SNOWFALL AROUND DIAMOND LAKE AS WELL AS ALONG PARTS OF HIGHWAY 97
EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE UMPQUA
AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE CASCADES IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SPC GUIDANCE KEEPING 80-
90% CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL RATES TO REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER PEAKS
AND RIDGELINES AND 60-80% CHANCES FOR NEIGHBORING AREAS.
SNOWFALL OVER THE CASCADES CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT AT
DECREASING RATES. RAINFALL WILL REACH THE ROGUE AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER BROAD
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL. PRECIPITATION AND WINDS EASE
INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2500 FEET LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD REACH 1500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT, ONLY SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND
WIDESPREAD WINTER IMPACTS ARE NOT A CONCERN.
THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS
LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
CONCERNS. LOCALIZED FREEZING CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS, NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH
COVERS THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, AS THERE'S SOME
QUESTION HOW COLD THAT NIGHT WILL GET.
A NUMBER OF HAZARD PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE TO FURTHER COMMUNICATE THE
IMPACTS OF THIS ACTIVE PERIOD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AND ABOVE 4000 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NORTH OF ALTURAS IN
MODOC COUNTY HIGHLIGHTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN COARSE, WITH SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OUTCOMES. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT TENDS
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT CURRY COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, PER ECMWF IMAGERY. OR IT MIGHT BOUNCE OFF A RIDGE
AND LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY, PER GFS
IMAGERY. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS ARE IN THE 5000-7000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH
WOULD LIMIT WINTER IMPACTS. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND MONDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM BEHAVES. -TAD
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS...FLIGHT LEVELS VARY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE
COAST, WHILE PASSING SHOWERS ARE OCCASIONALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT AREA TERMINALS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE DAY,K WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND OCCASIONALLY PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND REACHING
FARTHER EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE PRESENT AT NORTH BEND THIS MORNING AND
LOOK TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES NEAR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO START EASING AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15, 2026...A FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND STEEP SEAS TODAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF COOS BAY TODAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY, BUT A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ080.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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