136
FXUS66 KMFR 040353
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1255 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026/
IT'S BEEN A RATHER QUIET DAY FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ON THE WEST COAST. WE SAW SOME VALLEY FOG EARLIER FRIDAY
MORNING AND THAT HAS CLEARED OUT AS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG CHANGE
FROM YESTERDAY IS THE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE LOWERING OF
HUMIDITIES. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60'S THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERHAPS EVEN 70 NEAR BROOKINGS ON THE COAST.
AS FOR TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE UMPQUA VALLEY
AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. IF THEY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40'S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
WE'LL LIKELY SEE FOG IN THAT VALLEY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH NO FOG
EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
ASIDE FROM THE FOG, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MID SLOPES AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WARMER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MANY VALLEYS SEEING MID TO UPPER 70'S WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
AREAS FARTHER EAST IN THE UPPER 60'S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70'S ON
SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THIS WARM UP, WE'LL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT
OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR APRIL 4TH AND 5TH.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE, IT LOOKS LIKE EVERY MEMBER IS PUTTING DOWN SOME QPF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE SHOWERS
INSTEAD OF A THUNDERSTORM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHEST
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) IN THE HIGH
CASCADES IN CRATER LAKE WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY AROUND
-10C TO -20C. THEREFORE, IT SEEMS REASONABLE THERE COULD BE SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD OR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
CRATER LAKE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE BY TUESDAY AS A CUT LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE LINGERS AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
DRYISH COLD FRONT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THAT INCREASES TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION A BIT.
OVERALL, PRETTY LOW IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR TERM INTO
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY
LOWER WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR ALONG THE COAST (KOTH) AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN (KRBG) LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT FRIDAY, APRIL 3, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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