570
FXUS66 KMFR 070917
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
217 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING SET OVER SOME STATIONS.
* A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
FROST FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEAT
WILL PEAK TODAY, AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SEVERAL RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TIED OR BROKEN, PARTICULARLY AT MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND MEDFORD,
WHERE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE STANDING RECORDS.
IN OTHER WORDS, SUMMER REFUSES TO LET GO OF OUR REGION, DESPITE
THE DATE ON THE CALENDAR.
ON THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE TIED OR
BROKEN RECORDS.
THINGS FINALLY START TO CHANGE FRIDAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER FRIDAY, BUT A
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOSTLY DRY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THE WHOLE AREA WILL MISS OUT ON
RAIN, AS THERE ARE SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
THE SISKIYOUS, WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN. WE'LL SEE IF ASHLAND AND THE SISKIYOUS SEE
RAIN WHILE MEDFORD STAYS DRY.
BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE PAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD. THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE NOTABLE, AROUND
20 TO 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY, AND PUSH US TO 'FALL' LIKE
WEATHER. WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS
POSSIBLE, SO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING IN AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS A RESULT, THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
ROGUE, ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THIS IS NOT A SURE THING,
HOWEVER, AS THE OVERHEAD TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A BLANKET OF CLOUDS,
KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WE WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS FOR ANY LINGERING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING
THOSE LAST-MINUTE BACKYARD TOMATO HARVESTS.
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND (KOTH). MOST AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT SOME AREAS MAY
NOT FULLY CLEAR BEFORE WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND FROM BROOKINGS SOUTH.
INLAND, EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2026
A
PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS TYPICAL IN THESE
PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN DAILY DURING THE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING VERY STEEP
SEAS NORTHWARD TO AROUND BANDON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE UNTIL LATE WEEK/INTO THE
WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, DISRUPTING THE THERMAL TROUGH AND PRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL WEAKEN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST LONG PERIOD
SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM A
STORM CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN AND THE ACTIVE TROPICS. WHILE
SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 OR 7 FEET, THE SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WITH A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 SECONDS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS BAR
CONDITIONS AND THE HEAVIEST SURF SO FAR THIS SEASON.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
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