149
FXUS66 KMFR 232348
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PATCHY CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE NE SLOPES OF THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA, WINTER RIM AND THE WARNER MTNS.
A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, AND WITH SOME
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR PREVAILING FOR
MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND,
MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE ONLY 8F AT
ROSEBURG. SO, EVEN WITH SOME EXPECTED DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY MOIST AND IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH
FOR FOG TO REFORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPING THERE AROUND ~08Z AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 137 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MORNING FOG MAY BECOMING LESS PREVALENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
* COLD AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE VALLEYS OF DOUGLAS CO.
- MAY NEED TO EXPAND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES THE NEXT MORNING
FURTHER DETAILS:
FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT LATELY ALONG
WITH THE STABLE AIRMASS, BUT WE MAY SEE THE FOG CHANCES LESS COMMON
THIS WEEKEND AND WE SEE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. WHILE SOME AREAS
MAY STILL SEE FOG/FREEZING FOG, AREAS IN AND AROUND DOUGLAS COUNTY
MAY GET SOME RELIEF TONIGHT. THIS IS PART OF THE REASON FOR THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE STRONGER WITHOUT THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALSO PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE COLD TEMPERATURES BECAUSE IF THE FOG FORMS AGAIN, WE MAY NOT GET
AS COLD TONIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS, SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXISTS FOR
TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE FOG (OR LACK THEREOF) WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER. PROBABILITIES FROM ENSEMBLE DATA DO INDICATE THERE
IS A LESSER CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY. CURRENTLY
THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN HALF A MILE.
THE NEXT MORNING WILL BE COLDER FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND WE MAY MEET CRITERIA (6 - 15 DEGREES) FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN DOUGLAS COUNTY
WHERE WE ONLY NEED TO BE 16 TO 25 DEGREES. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT BOTH SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. IN SIMILAR
FASHION WE MAY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS DUE TO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MAY COME MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TREND LATELY HAS
BEEN FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL, EVEN AS CHANCES COME INTO THE
EXTENDED ONLY TO DISAPPEAR ONCE WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. THIS IS
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE DATA IS
INDICATING THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.10"/6 HRS IS AROUND 10-25 PERCENT
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CHANCES ARE FOR WESTSIDE AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREAS BEING ON THE HIGHER END. THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW PASSING MID-/HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF
THE CASCADES WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LIFR CEILINGS) IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AT ROSEBURG AND IN THE WESTERN ROGUE VALLEY NEAR
GRANTS PASS. MEDFORD HAS VFR CONDITIONS WITH 4KFT-06KFT CEILINGS.
THE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH COULD ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TODAY TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR AT THE LOCATIONS WITH LOW
CLOUDS/FOG RIGHT NOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CLEAR INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THIS TAF CYCLE INCLUDES MVFR VISIBILITY FOR
THE ROSEBURG AREA BETWEEN 05Z-14Z, BUT THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THAT WILL MEAN IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE 20S WEST OF THE CASCADES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE OTHER
TAF SITES, INCLUDING MEDFORD, AS WELL.
-9
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 23, 2026...
NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING TODAY. SEAS ARE STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
ALSO SPREAD TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ021.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ023-
024-026-029>031.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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