419
FXUS66 KMFR 301127
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
DISCUSSION
HIGH CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WARM MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
PACIFIC. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION(POP) FORECAST DOES HAVE
SOME POP ALONG THE COAST AROUND 60 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE REGION WILL MISS OUT ON THE RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOOTS TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARM MOIST
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS
SITUATED OFF THE OREGON COAST. ENSEMBLES THEN BRING THIS FRONT
FARTHER INLAND WITH POPS INCREASING 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST(QPF) REMAINS RATHER LIGHT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN POPS, ANY IMPACT FROM RAIN OR
SNOW IS BASICALLY NEGLIGIBLE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE HIGHER AS SOME WARMER MOIST AIR
MOVES IN. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEVADA AND
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER WITH MID 60'S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND LOWER 60'S AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50'S
EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS IS REALLY DRIVEN HOME BY THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI),
WHICH CAN HELP PICK UP ON UNUSUALLY AND EXTREME EVENTS IN THE
ENSEMBLES. DATA SHOWS EFI VALUES AROUND 0.7 TO 0.8 BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH SUGGESTS PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ABOVE THE CLIMATE MEAN AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL APPROACH
SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR
ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS. ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE 8TH, THEN THINGS COULD START TO CHANGE
AROUND MID FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT
PLENTY OF TIMES THROUGH LATE JANUARY AND NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED.
-SMITH
AVIATION...30/12 TAFS
VFR CEILINGS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING VIRGA AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS TO COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE, IF ANY AT ALL.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 30, 2026
A SERIES
OF OFFSHORE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY STRENGTH ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELLS. CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
STEEP SEAS PERSISTING ON MONDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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