760  
FXUS66 KMFR 290535  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1035 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025  
   
UPDATE  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...29/06Z TAFS  
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR  
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH, THEN BECOMING  
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  
 
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, THERE'S EVIDENCE SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS  
WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE DOUGLAS COUNTY, TOWARDS THE  
UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT, THEN FILLING IN TOWARDS ROSEBURG LATE TONIGHT  
WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE, IF ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ALSO THE TERRAIN WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY  
OBSCURED TUESDAY MORNING, THEN CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.  
 
SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, INCLUDING MEDFORD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING, THEN AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KLAMATH  
AND LAKE COUNTIES IN OREGON AND MODOC COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  
AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLAMATH FALLS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 812 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025/  
 
UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION.  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM MONDAY, APRIL 28, 2025...GUSTY NORTH  
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE  
BLANCO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEPEST  
SEAS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. NORTH WINDS WEAKEN LATE  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT AREAS OF STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY  
CONTINUE FROM NEAR GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD.  
 
THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL  
BRING A RETURN OF STEEP SEAS FROM NEAR COOS BAY SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY  
VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH  
OF GOLD BEACH. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER ON THURSDAY. THEN, AN  
APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING STEEP SWELL AND MARINE SHOWERS NEAR  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM PDT MON APR 28 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH  
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
ASIDE FROM SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONT,  
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND  
THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THIS  
PAST WEEKEND RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS SCATTERED OUT, LEAVING THE AREA  
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER  
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES, AND A THIN LAYER OF  
CIRRUS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME  
YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST  
WEST SIDE VALLEYS (75-80F IN THE LOWER KLAMATH VALLEY FROM HAPPY  
CAMP TO SOMES BAR) AND IN THE 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. OVERALL,  
FAIRLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON N-NW BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE  
TODAY THAT'LL LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  
 
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE  
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE BEST  
CHANCES (25-50%) EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS (ROSEBURG/CRATER  
LAKE/SUMMER LAKE NORTHWARD) AND ACROSS LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES EARLY  
TUESDAY. WHERE IT DOES RAIN, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY  
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS AT BEST, WITH MAYBE UP TO 0.10" FOR THE  
HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RESUMES CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK SYSTEM EXITS  
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER CLIMB TO ABOVE  
NORMAL VALUES, REACHING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND 15  
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. EXPECT COOL (WEST SIDE) TO  
CHILLY (EAST SIDE) MORNINGS BOTH DAYS, BUT WITH NICE, WARM  
AFTERNOONS. WITH THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HIGHS  
IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL FALL IN THE 80-85F RANGE  
(UPPER 80S LOWER KLAMATH). EAST SIDE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS  
LARGELY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THESE VALUES ON THURSDAY COULD  
EASILY BECOME THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND WILL  
FEEL MORE LIKE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY THAN EARLY MAY. WE DON'T EXPECT  
RECORDS TO FALL AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR MAY 1ST ARE IN THE LOW  
90S/UPPER 80S, BUT THESE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL IN THE TOP 5  
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE.  
 
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER, SO THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY  
SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES  
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR  
TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED JUST THIS PAST WEEKEND (AND MORE SIMILAR TO  
EARLY MARCH) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
WILL SWING FROM 15-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO 10-15  
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY! AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON  
FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD  
OF THIS FRONT. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GUSTS  
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THIS TROUGH WILL ELONGATE JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, DIGGING  
SOUTHWARD AND CUTTING OFF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER  
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GRATE  
BASIN ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY,  
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (SE LAKE/MODOC  
COUNTIES). BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF LATE SUNDAY, RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 0.25"-0.50" WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH UP TO  
0.75" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND  
4500-5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FT  
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE FEW INCHES (1-3") OF SNOW IN THE  
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES BY  
THE TIME SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. OVER THAT WAY, THERE  
COULD AROUND 2-4" OF ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNERS BY THE TIME THIS  
LATE-SEASON SYSTEM IS DONE. /BR-Y  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY  
FOR PZZ356-376.  
 
 
 
 
 
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