438
FXUS66 KMFR 160530
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1030 PM PDT WED APR 15 2026
DISCUSSION
THE FROST ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY REACHING THE MID-30S IN THESE AREAS. AN UPDATE FOR
TONIGHT IS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY'S FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THIS. -HERMANSEN
AVIATION...16/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH WIDEPSREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING. A
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIG/VSBYS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING, AREAS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A LOW END VFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK LINGERS OVER THE WEST
SIDE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AREA WIDE. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15, 2026
A PASSING
FRONT HAS BROUGHT BREEZY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS
THIS WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 PM PDT WED APR 15 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. STEADY
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATER TODAY, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES.
THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING CONCERNS. LOCALIZED FREEZING CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY. A
FREEZE WATCH COVERS THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME,
AS THERE'S SOME QUESTION HOW COLD THAT NIGHT WILL GET.
A NUMBER OF HAZARD PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE TO FURTHER COMMUNICATE THE
IMPACTS OF THIS ACTIVE PERIOD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AND ABOVE 4000 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NORTH OF ALTURAS IN
MODOC COUNTY HIGHLIGHTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN COARSE, WITH SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OUTCOMES. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT TENDS
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT CURRY COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, PER ECMWF IMAGERY. OR IT MIGHT BOUNCE OFF A RIDGE
AND LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY, PER GFS
IMAGERY. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS ARE IN THE 5000-7000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH
WOULD LIMIT WINTER IMPACTS. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND MONDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM BEHAVES.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ080.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page