366
FXUS66 KMFR 050600
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...05/06Z TAFS
SMOKE IS THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AROUND 3 TO 6 MILES ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS AT TIMES DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCTION SEEM TO BE THE EVENING INTO THE FOLLOWING
MORNING WHEN FRESH SMOKE COMES DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE FOR THE DAY. THE FIRES ARE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT THE
REALLY THICK SMOKE TO PRODUCE VISIBILITY UNDER 3 MILES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. MVFR AND VFR VISIBILITIES ARE MORE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM SMOKE, THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RETURN
LATE TONIGHT, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR IFR/LIFR IMPACTS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE ONSHORE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, SOME PATCHY LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COQUILLE
BASIN TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTH BEND LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2026
CONDITIONS
REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS STEEP
SEAS PERSIST WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS DUE TO
NORTH WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 255 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* A HEAT WAVE WILL CREATE MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR REGION WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK POSSIBLE AROUND THE ROGUE
VALLEY.
* SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE REDUCED AIR QUALITY
ACROSS THE REGION.
* A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS OR WETTING RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
THE START OF OUR HEATWAVE HAS BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS START
PUSH TOWARDS THE MID 100'S. A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
WITH THE INVERTED 850 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
OVER VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOWS WILL WARM IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60'S WEST OF THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, LOWS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO LOWER 50'S, SO PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME
RECOVERING IN THAT SECTION OF OUR AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE AS WARM AS TODAY WITH MODERATE
HEAT RISK AS THE VERY LEAST. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT
RISK HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AS WE'RE IN THE MID 100'S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60'S. AGAIN, THE DURATION OF THE HEAT WAVE
COULD RESULT IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESS TO THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
MEDFORD WILL ALSO CHALLENGE RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH 106
CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD IN 1972.
SMOKE WILL ALSO BE AN IMPACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MANY FIRES BURNING TO OUR NORTH. WITH NORTH, EAST AND NORTHEAST
WINDS, THICKER SMOKE WILL MAKE IT'S WAY DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON.
AIR QUALITY WILL BE IMPACTED IN SOME LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD UNHEALTHY AIR. RIGHT NOW, AN AIR QUALITY
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
ACCORDING TO OREGON DEQ. WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE A BIT WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH RETREATING FARTHER EAST, PERHAPS AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO START TO
BREAK DOWN AND LEAD TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HELP US IN
SOUTH WESTERN OREGON BY PUSHING SMOKE FROM MOST OF THE FIRES EAST
OF US TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE NOW SHOW A TROUGH RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AROUND
THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AT THE VERY LEAST. THE NBM HAS MANY AREAS
DROPPING BACK TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY NEXT WEEK STARTING
SUNDAY.
LASTLY, IT REMAINS A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH BASICALLY NO SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR WETTING RAIN IN OUR
REGION. ALTHOUGH WE DID LOOK THROUGH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND 1 OUT 50 IS SHOWING A LITTLE QPF TUESDAY AUGUST 11TH.
SO THERE IS HOPE, JUST NOT MUCH. -SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2026...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS RATHER STEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRESH SWELL PROMPTED A HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNING, ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER
STEEP SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS
TO SMALLER CRAFTS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEAS JUST DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2026...
RIDGING ALOFT AND A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE
PERSISTENT NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BEFORE
COOLING SLIGHTLY TO MORE NORMAL OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POOR RH RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF SW OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING RH ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE LOW 20S (UPPER
TEENS?!) THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITIES COULD
EASILY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTAGES. WITH THESE HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILLINOIS AND
ROGUE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE SISKIYOUS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR
THESE SAME AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND BREEZY EAST WINDS RETURN
AGAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE JUST
ENOUGH (MAINLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS) TO PRECLUDE CONTINUING THE RED
FLAG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MINIMAL
IMPROVEMENT, IF ANY, IN WIND AND HUMIDITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
IN ADDITION TO MUCH MORE INSTABILITY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND. WITH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS, AND WITH
CONTINUED DRY, WINDY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA YET AGAIN
THURSDAY, INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS,
WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT COOLING AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO OVERALL
WINDS AND HUMIDITIES BEGINNING FRIDAY, BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
BRING SECTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF RED FLAG CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER ASSESSED IN THE COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS, FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HOT, DRY, WINDY, AND UNSTABLE, WITH POOR
RIDGETOP AND EAST SIDE RECOVERIES, AND PERIODS OF NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A WEAK DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT WOULD
ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS, WHICH WOULD HEIGHTEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS YET AGAIN.
-BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
028>031.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ616-617-
620>623.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-081-083>085.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280-282.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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