986
FXUS66 KMFR 051101
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PST FRI DEC 5 2025
DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE FLOW FROM THE WEST, THE BULLS EYE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES WITH LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, ROGUE VALLEY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MAIN CONCERN EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
700MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE DECREASING PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING WITH MOST HOURS AND
LOCATIONS DRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A NET INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION WITH MOST CENTERED WEST OF THE CASCADES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN
DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INTERMITTENT LIGHT IS
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTY ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE HEAVIER CORE OF RAINFALL WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINLY FROM ABOUT EUGENE UP TO WESTERN WASHINGTON NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THIS TIME, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE
ALL THE PASSES, THEREFORE THE CONCERN FOR SNOW IS NEXT TO ZERO.
-PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...05/12Z TAFS
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. LIFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE WITH A REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
CONDITION, HOWEVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD END UP PARTLY OBSCURED
AFTER 18Z. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME TURBULENCE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGHER BETWEEN 8000-10000 FEET. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2025
WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR SHORE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THE COMBINATION OF WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL, RESIDUAL NORTHERLY
FRESH SWELL, AND SOUTHERLY WIND SEAS WILL RESULT IN STEEP, CHAOTIC
SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL FRONTS BRINGING PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND A LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH AND STEEP SEAS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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