218
FXUS66 KMFR 282255
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT WEEK
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THE NEXT WEEK
- NOT SEEING ANY NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS SUN INTO MON
* LONG RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM AND DRY WEATHER
FURTHER DETAILS:
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTS TODAY/TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW,
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE THE BETTER
CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA IN TERMS OF QPF. IN FACT, PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL
IS NOT LOOKING GOOD THIS WEEK. WE DON'T SEE PROBABILITIES BECOME
NOTEWORTHY UNTIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN THIS SONG
AND DANCE RECENTLY WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO LIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, ONLY TO BE REMOVED/DIMINISHED ONCE WE GET INTO
THE SHORT/NEAR TERM. PERSISTENCE WILL LIKELY BE KEY GOING FORWARD,
AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING FAVORED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY.
BROKEN RECORD ALERT...ALL JOKES ASIDE, CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF 500MB
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH DAY9
OVER THE PACNW. GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (AS OF
TODAY - 1/28) CONTINUES TO INDICATE IN THEIR 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (FEB
5TH-11TH) A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS
BEEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST TREND THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS COMMON BOTH EAST AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED
WITH VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR FOG COULD DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BEFORE 12Z THU IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES EXIST DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2026
A SERIES
OF OFFSHORE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH, STRONGEST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME STEEP WIND SEAS WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH WITH A SERIES OF LARGER WEST SWELLS TO BRING STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370.
JWG/MNF
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