132
FXUS66 KMFR 101727
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1027 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
WHILE CEILINGS MAY APPROACH OR REACH MVFR AT TIMES, WE REALLY
ARE EXPECTING THIS TO BE A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST WITH KRBG,
KMFR, AND KLMT SEEING VFR CHANCES AROUND 85%-95% THROUGHOUT THE
CYCLE. HOWEVER, NORTH BEND DOES HAVE A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY AT TIMES, BUT SPEEDS WILL CALM DOWN AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 253 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY COASTS. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
WITH A FEW HERE AND THERE PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR INLAND AS THE
DOUGLAS COUNTY CASCADES. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL GUIDE MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MUCH LIKE TODAY, THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA, WHERE A FRONT WILL BECOME STALL OUT FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
MOISTURE FLOW, MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. WITH A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE A
RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, OVER COASTAL
RANGES, AND ALONG THE CASCADES.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
WARM FRONT ARRIVING AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES OVER
CURRY, COOS, AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE CASCADES, BUT
ANY RAINFALL/MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT NOT TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGHER WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN EAST SIDE
BASINS POSSIBLY REACHING 20 MPH WHILE WINDS OVER TERRAIN MAY REACH
UP TO 40-45 MPH. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES AND
GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BE PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY
LAST INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
AND THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY BRING SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
WINDS LOOK UNIMPACTFUL. THERE'S SOME AGREEMENT IN LONG-TERM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A PACIFIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER END VFR CEILINGS, AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS AND THE
SISKIYOUS AS NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS STRATUS BANKED UP
THERE. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2026...WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO STEEP WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL TODAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF FLORENCE, BUT STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH OF REEDSPORT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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