221  
FXUS66 KMFR 161021  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
321 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD  
ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE'RE CURRENTLY  
WATCHING TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST SIDE  
VALLEYS, SO THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY  
VERIFY THIS MORNING. MEDFORD AND ROSEBURG WILL LIKELY SEE SOME  
FROST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN TEMPERATURES  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  
 
AS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARDS  
A FEW DEGREES, SO MORE FROST IS PROBABLE FOR THE WEST SIDE  
VALLEYS, BUT WE'LL PROBABLY STEER CLEAR OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE'RE ACTUALLY  
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE  
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STICKING  
AROUND. THE PATTERN IS RATHER STAGNANT, BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY  
CHANGE AROUND NEXT TUESDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW OVER  
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST.  
 
THE LAST THING WE WANT TO TOUCH ON IS THE KLONDIKE FIRE BECOMING  
ACTIVE YET AGAIN. PEOPLE WILL PROBABLY WONDER WHERE THE SMOKE WILL  
BE HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS EAST OFF SHORE FLOW WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, SO THE COAST WILL  
SEE THE SMOKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT  
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO FUNNEL INTO THE WEST SIDE  
VALLEYS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON. BOTH MODELS  
ARE SHOWING A MINOR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE EVENT AROUND NEXT  
TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT  
IN IMPACTFUL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURING ALONG THE COAST UP  
TO THE CASCADES BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY.  
 
-SMITH  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS
 
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY AND COOS COUNTY,DOWNWIND OF THE  
KLONDIKE WILDFIRE, COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION.  
 
-WEYGAND  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 16 OCTOBER 2018
 
WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TODAY,  
PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL OF AROUND 3 FEET MAY  
PRODUCE ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AT BROOKINGS AND ELEVATED SURF AT  
PORT ORFORD. ASIDE FROM THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL,  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM TODAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A LONGER PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL AT  
16 TO 18 SECONDS WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL  
COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALLER LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL  
AND COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
OVERALL, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET AS THIS IS ONLY A 7-  
8 FOOT SWELL. BUT, GIVEN THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL, SURF CONDITIONS  
COULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL. BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET ARE  
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THIS COULD CATCH SOME BEACH-  
GOERS OFF GUARD AS THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN TYPICAL  
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. AS A RESULT, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT  
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS  
THE PERIOD SHORTENS, THEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
-CLARSTROM  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2018
 
 
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY  
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. TODAY, EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER RIDGES FOR RED FLAG WARNING  
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND  
THE SISKIYOUS, BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST  
TWO MORNINGS. WINDS OVER THESE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITICAL  
LEVELS BY TONIGHT, IF NOT SOONER. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
BREEZY EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CASCADES WITH  
MAINLY LIGHT EAST WINDS OVER OTHER RIDGES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR  
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
AS A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, DAYTIME RHS ARE  
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
POOR RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. LOW DAYTIME RHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO  
NUDGE UPWARD THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER. LIGHT EAST WINDS COULD  
INCREASE SOME AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH THEY ARE  
LIKELY TO BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE LAST TWO DAYS.  
FORECASTS FROM THE GFS INDICATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 5 MB OVER  
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH 16MB  
ANALYZED BY THE GFS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND 12MB FOR MONDAY AND 8MB  
TODAY.  
 
THEN A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHER RHS AND, POSSIBLY,  
SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
-CLARSTROM  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023-024-026.  
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ621.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.  
 
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.  
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-082.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.  
 

 
 
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