894
FXUS66 KMFR 251757
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
957 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS
VFR LEVELS ARE GENERALLY PRESENT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONTINUING RAIN AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MOUNT
SHASTA ARE CAUSING LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, AND A LINE OF STRONGER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS PASSING THROUGH KLAMATH FALLS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW
LEVELS DECREASING TO 3500-4000 FEET TODAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CAN CAUSE LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL
AS OBSCURE ELEVATED TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS MORNING, THEN LINGERING OVER COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. -TAD/-9
MARINE...UPDATED 845 AM PST THURSDAY, DECEMBER 25, 2025
SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST GALES (30-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT) AND VERY STEEP SEAS
BETWEEN 13 TO 23 FT CONTINUE IN ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A 35-45% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS
FOR THE WATERS WITH IN 20 NM OF SHORE BETWEEN GOLD BEACH AND CAPE
BLANCO AND A 20% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR OTHER AREAS. WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
WILL BE FOUND SOUTH NEAR BROOKINGS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF GALES FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
(20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE THE LOW EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK, AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 351 AM PST THU DEC 25 2025/
DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING, GUIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ROAD CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING PERIODS OF RAINFALL AND
PERIODS OF SNOWFALL IN AREAS AROUND MOUNT SHASTA EARLY THIS MORNING,
PUTTING CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AT 4500-5000 FEET IN THE AREA.
ROADSIDE SLUSH IS VISIBLE ON WEBCAM AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND
SNOWMAN SUMMIT, SO LOCAL SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ROADWAYS. RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS TRAVELING INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OREGON NEAR THE CALIFORNIA BORDER. GUSTY WINDS ARE
PRESENT OVER TERRAIN, WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH ACORN WOMAN PEAK
(SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY) AND COLLINS BALDY (WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY) SHOWING GUSTS OF OF 50-55 MPH.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WILL SEE CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CURRY COUNTY, WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
OTHER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO 3500- 4000 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR TERRAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND AROUND MOUNT SHASTA, CONSTANT
SNOWFALL WILL ALLOW FOR 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW TO FALL ON AREA PEAKS
AND RIDGELINES. THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE, LOWER ELEVATION AREAS COULD SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL WHILE TERRAIN COULD SEE UP TO 6 INCHES. CASCADES PEAKS
WOULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, WHILE MANY PASSES COULD SEE UP TO
6 INCHES (HIGHWAY 66 WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL). A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SISKIYOU COUNTY TERRAIN AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES ARE IN PLACE TO HELP
HIGHLIGHT EXPECTED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE WSWMFR FOR
MORE DETAILS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW NEARS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OREGON COAST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD AS WELL
AS THE SHASTA VALLEY. THESE AREAS MAY SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 60 MPH
THIS MORNING. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES. NPWMFR HAS
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT EXPECTED GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS
EASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW AND SURROUNDING TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, PUSHING INLAND AND BRINGING ONE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE
MOST ACTIVITY OVER CURRY COUNTY, THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION, AND THE
CASCADES. A SLIGHT RISE IN SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME MAY HELP TO KEEP
SNOWFALL OFF OF HIGHWAYS IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION.
SHOWERS EASE ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ARE NONEXISTENT IN GUIDANCE AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK. LONG-TERM
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE
AND STARTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER. SOME
AMBITIOUS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SHOWERS TO NORTH BEND ON
THE AFTERNOON OF DECEMBER 31ST, BUT THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF 2026
LOOKS MORE LIKELY. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ023>026-
029>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-082>085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-083>085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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