500
FXUS66 KMFR 241231
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
431 AM PST WED DEC 24 2025
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED AREAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT MAXIMUM GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE SHOWING UP. ACORN
WOMAN PEAK (NEAR THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER) AND CALIMUS
(NORTHEAST OF KLAMATH FALLS) BOTH HAVE OBSERVED GUSTS EXCEEDING 60
MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING IN TO THE SHASTA VALLEY, WHERE
WEED AIRPORT HAS OBSERVED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.
THERE'S GROWING AGREEMENT IN MODEL RUNS THAT THIS SURFACE LOW IS
GOING TO TURN EASTWARD AND MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER
THAN STAY OVER THE WATER. THIS OUTCOME WOULD KEEP STRONG WINDS OUT
OF MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS MENTIONED, THE SHASTA VALLEY IS
ALREADY GETTING GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ORIENTING WITH THE SOUTHEAST
ROGUE VALLEY COULD BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS FROM ASHLAND TO
MEDFORD. AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE PERIODS
OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING, THE MOST IMPACTFUL OUTCOMES ARE LOOKING
LESS LIKELY.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING, WITH THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION (WEED, MOUNT SHASTA CITY,
MCCLOUD) AND CURRY COUNTY SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. CURRENT SNOW
LEVELS OF 7000 FEET OR MORE WILL DROP TO 4500-5000 FEET THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
THIS DECREASE IN ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LINGERING TROUGH, BRINGING A COOLER AIR MASS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING, THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION WILL
SEE THE FIRST SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL SEE THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COASTAL HEADLANDS AND AREA
TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM, GIVEN THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 4500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 3500-
4000 FEET ON FRIDAY. TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE 1 TO 3
FEET OF SNOW, AND MOUNT ASHLAND COULD SEE 1 FOOT OF SNOW. SNOWFALL ON
INTERSTATE 5 BETWEEN DUNSMUIR AND WEED, HIGHWAY 89 SOUTH OF MOUNT
SHASTA, AND CASCADES PASSES ARE A CONCERN FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN HOLIDAY TRAVEL. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS BASINS AND VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL OVER TERRAIN.
A CALMER PERIOD REMAINS IN TO FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PACIFIC. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS RIDGE FLATTENING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING ACTIVITY TO RETURN EARLY IN
2026. -TAD
AVIATION...24/12Z TAFS
FLIGHT LEVELS ARE FLUCTUATING EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS VFR CEILINGS TURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS PASS
OVER AREA TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN
GUIDANCE FOR THE AREA, BUT FORECASTS FOR SURFACE WINDS ARE TRENDING
LOWER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE PRESENT EAST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT THE COAST AND WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE LIMITED
PERIODS OF BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND MOUNT SHASTA. WINDS AND SHOWERS EASE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A SECOND ACTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHES, BUT AREA
TERMINALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE EFFECTS UNTIL LATER FORECASTS. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2025
TWO
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
CHRISTMAS. THE FIRST, QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM, ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND, SLOWER-MOVING SYSTEM,
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE IN SOLUTIONS (AND THEREFORE, LOW
CONFIDENCE) FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
THE COAST. THIS BRINGS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN TERMS
OF WIND STRENGTH OVER THE MARINE WATERS SINCE THE POSITION OF THE
LOW IS UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THAT THE LOW WILL
RUN UP THE COAST JUST OFFSHORE, PRODUCING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
AND VERY STEEP SEAS. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND IS WHAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS. TWO OTHER SCENARIOS, WHICH LIE
CLOSER TO THE EXTREMES (ON BOTH ENDS) ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER.
STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS (ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE) SHOW A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY, THAT QUICKLY SHIFT THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WEAKER SOLUTIONS
(SIMILAR %) MOVE THE LOW INTO CAPE MENDOCINO AND KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH CRAB SEASON WELL UNDERWAY, AND GIVEN THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY, HAVE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUED A
GALE WARNING, MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM REMAINS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER REGARDING SOME DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF VERY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BAR CROSSINGS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE LATE FRIDAY, BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STEEP INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE THE CHRISTMAS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION,
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK, AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS. -BPN/BR-Y/SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ023-024-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022-
025>031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ029>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-082>085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-083.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081-084-
085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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