178
FXUS66 KMFR 312129
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2025
DISCUSSION.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE STARTING TO THIN OUT. SKIES WILL AT LEAST BE PARTLY
CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
SINCE THE FRONT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, IT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE IN. THEREFORE ODDS ARE IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE TRICK
OR TREATERS OUT THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTH COAST. ELSEWHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE FRONT, AND THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
DOES SNOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER NORTHWEST DOUGLAS AND
NORTHERN COOS COUNTY. HOWEVER, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAIN DRY,
GIVEN THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, THEY
CAN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY, OR ARE SLOW TO MOVE. IN THIS CASE
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY THERE'S DATA
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
FURTHER DELAY THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL THE NBM SOLUTION
IS TOO FAST AND TOO FAR INLAND WITH THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
AND CLUSTERS ALL SHOW UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH THE STORM
TRACK STAYING NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA, BUT MORE LIKELY MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST, AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST, CASCADES AND NORTH OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. SINCE THE FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY. THE ROGUE
VALLEY, INCLUDING MEDFORD COULD END UP DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES WILL SLOW BE DRY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (10,000-11,000 FEET) AS THE FRONT MOVES IN,
THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MOVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
AT THE SAME TIME WILL WEAKEN, THUS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
CHECK.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, THEN DRYING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW DISTURBANCES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING, THEN WEST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT TUESDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL
BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE THE MAIN EVENT IN TERMS OF
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THE CONCERN FOR MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THE
COAST, SHASTA VALLEY, AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY AT THE
RIDGES. THIS COULD ALSO BE A PROLONGED EVEN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN SOUTH SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW CONCERNS TO THE
HIGHEST PEAKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
STRONG FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THE TIMING AND DETAILS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD VERY OVER
TIME SINCE WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH WE'LL HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...31/06Z TAFS
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE RETURNING TO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND PARTS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE ROGUE VALLEY,
INCLUDING MEDFORD AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING AT
KLAMATH FALLS, ARE STILL UNDER LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS.
OVERALL, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND POSSIBLY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2025
SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HIGH AND STEEP
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH. STEEP SEAS RETURN TO ALL
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /BR-Y/9
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31,
2025...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. A LINGERING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
MODERATE TO HEAVY LONG PERIOD SWELL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 20-25 FT SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SWELL BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES TONIGHT. AVOID
AREA BEACHES LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE, WHICH COULD INUNDATE BEACHES
AND LOW LYING SHORELINES. WAVES COULD WASH OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES,
AND SWEEP UNSUSPECTING PEOPLE OUT TO SEE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-
022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
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