174
FXUS66 KMFR 091847
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1147 AM PDT THU APR 9 2026
DISCUSSION
RADAR ECHOS ARE INCREASING IN DENSITY THIS LATE
MORNING AHEAD OF THIS CUT OFF LOW. WE'LL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.
LATEST FORECASTS STILL SHOWING 500 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR STORM UPDRAFTS BASED OFF OF THE KMFR HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDING. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ALSO LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA, SO THE 5-10% MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SEEMS ON POINT FROM
SPC THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL NUDGE CLOSE TO SHORE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. MODELS SEEM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
THIS AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DROPS TO 5% OVERNIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE VALLEY
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG FILL IN IF WE CLEAR OUT ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, THE FOCUS REMAINS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING WITHIN
20 KM OF ANY POINT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED(30-60%) DEPENDING ON
EXACT LOCATION.
THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC. THE MAIN IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW ON
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WON'T BE A MASSIVE SNOW EVENT, BUT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN(6000FT+) COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ARE POPPING OUT ON OUR RISK MAPS AND
THOSE RIDGES AND HIGHER PEAKS ARE FORECAST TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN
THE CASCADES.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NOTHING REALLY STOOD OUT ON THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX(EFI). THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDING DOWN THE NORTH WEST, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER MORE
UNSTABLE AIR AND MORE SHOWERS FOR THE FORECAST REGION. THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AROUND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DURING THIS TIME WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. 10% OF THE ENS MEMBERS SHOW THE CASCADES SEEING
ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY. SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO GET SOME
MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS HERE IN EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
STILL SOME LIFR CEILINGS IN THE VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. THOSE WILL CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUN
MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE AROUND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. THOSE AREAS WILL HAVE A SMALL(5-10%) CHANCE OF
SEVERE HAIL OR WINDS. OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE A CHANCE AT RELATIVELY
WEAKER STORMS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VALLEY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 2026
FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING LESS THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE BREEZY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND SEAS
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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