154
FXUS66 KMFR 171225
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
425 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY POINTS:
* TODAY: WINTER IMPACTS CONTINUE
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR AREA MOUNTAINS AND PASSES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS, ACCUMULATION NOT
EXPECTED.
* WEDNESDAY
- LINGERING COLD AIR MAY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO COASTAL
AREAS.
- COLD AIR MAY SUPPORT SNOW REACHING THE UMPQUA VALLEY FLOOR, BUT
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ANY SNOWFALL MORE LOCALIZED.
* THURSDAY - FRIDAY
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER.
* SATURDAY - SUNDAY
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STABILITY, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
- SISKIYOU COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY.
- SNOW LEVELS OF 3500-4500 FEET WOULD KEEP SNOW TO ELEVATED
TERRAIN, BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLIDING INTO A PERSISTING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A COLD AIR MASS AND
EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SNOWFALL IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON SEVERAL
ROADCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATION CAN BE SEEN ON THE SIDE OF
THE ROAD AT HAYES HILL AND AT SEXTON SUMMIT. ACCUMULATION ON
INTERSTATE 5 IS IMPACTING TRAVEL SOUTH OF ASHLAND. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IS FALLING OUTSIDE THE OFFICE AS OF THIS DISCUSSION,
PUTTING SNOW LEVELS IN THE 500-1000 FOOT RANGE FOR THE ROGUE
VALLEY.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT 1000 TO 1500
FEET. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TRAVELS
SOUTH, MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER TERRAIN IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND AROUND MOUNT SHASTA. 10 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS OVER 3500-4000 FEET IN THESE AREAS. THE
CASCADES AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW AS WELL. SNOWFALL MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS WEST OF THE CASCADES
THIS MORNING. THE ILLINOIS, SCOTT, AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS ARE
FORECAST TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE FLOORS OF THE SHASTA
AND ROGUE VALLEYS HAVE A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING 0.5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THESE VALLEYS. EAST OF THE CASCADES, WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BUT FORECAST AMOUNTS IN EAST SIDE BASINS AND
VALLEYS ARE NOT EXCESSIVE. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS IN KLAMATH, MODOC,
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL, WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR SUMMER LAKE AND CHRISTMAS VALLEY.
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES. SEXTON SUMMIT AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT BOTH HAVE A 70% CHANCE OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY, AND INTERSTATE 5 BETWEEN WEED AND THE
SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BORDER COULD GET ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. OF COURSE CASCADES PASSES ARE EXPECTING
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL. TRAVEL MAY BE EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS IN ELEVATED
AREAS TODAY. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS AND BECOMES SLUSHY OR
REFREEZES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF LOCAL CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES WHILE
TRAVELING TODAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. WITH THE
COLD AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
AREAS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 32 DEGREES. MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW 20S AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE HIGH 20S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES BUT BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY WITHOUT THE LOW TO DRIVE ACTIVITY. THIS IS NOTABLE FOR THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, WHICH IS NORMALLY WARM ENOUGH TO MAKE SNOWFALL
DIFFICULT. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAKE SNOWFALL IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY POSSIBLE, BUT THE SPORADIC NATURE OF SHOWERS MAKE
EXACT FORECASTS DIFFICULT. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE MORE SNOWFALL
THAN EXPECTED IF MULTIPLE SHOWERS PASS OVER, WHILE OTHER AREAS MAY
SEE NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE LOOKS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
PATTERN FOR TODAY, WITH A FOCUS ON WEST SIDE TERRAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY SNOW ON THURSDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY EVEN LOOK SIMILAR TO THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TOTALS. HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT WITH THIS
SECOND LOW, AND PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONDITIONS
AS CONFIDENCE IN THEIR PRESENCE GROWS.
AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING LESS ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES. LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. IF THE PATTERN
HOLDS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BRING ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND COASTAL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE TO 3500-
4500 FEET, KEEPING SNOW OFF VALLEY FLOORS BUT BRINGING HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO SISKIYOU COUNTY TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES. GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP OVER TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK OUT, THERE'S
ANY NUMBER OF CHANGES THAT COULD DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID, METEOGRAM
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOUNT SHASTA CITY WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. -TAD
AVIATION...17/12Z TAFS
RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER WEST SIDE AREAS. FLIGHT LEVELS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH SIMILAR
CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST SNOW LEVELS OF 1000-1500 FEET ARE KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, WHILE AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY SEE MORE STEADY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO DECREASE INTO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CONTINUING SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OBSCURING
ELEVATED TERRAIN. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2026
WESTERLY
WINDS EASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT INCOMING WESTERLY SWELL WILL
SUPPORT STEEP SEAS IN ALL AREA WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY SWELL EASES ON THURSDAY, BUT A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY. MARINE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND FRESH SWELL MAY
BUILD UNSETTLED SEAS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CURRENT
FORECASTING FOR THIS SYSTEM SHOWS POSSIBILITIES OF GALE WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OUTER WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY. FORECAST TIMING AND EXPECTATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023>031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-082-
083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-084-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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