038  
FXUS66 KMFR 090516 CCA  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
916 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2025  
 
CORRECTED MARINE DISCUSSION  
   
UPDATE  
HAVE UPDATED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL DOWN PARTS OF THE  
EAST SIDE AND TO NUDGE SOME OF THE WEST SIDE UP A BIT. KFALLS HAD  
ALREADY FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES AS OF 8 PM BUT ELSEWHERE AROUND THE  
EAST SIDE IT WAS NOT SO COLD, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RUNNING  
10-15 DEGREES. SO THE KFALLS COLD SPOT IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.  
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING YET TO OCCUR SO WE ONLY NUDGED A FEW  
OTHER SITES OVER THERE UP A FEW DEGREES. AT MFR AND ACROSS THE  
INLAND WEST SIDE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SO I  
DON'T ANTICIPATE THE CHILLIER READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S  
WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. NUDGED A FEW SITES UP SEVERAL DEGREES.  
AT THE COAST IN THE FREEZE WARNING, I THINK THE FORECASTS ALSO  
LOOK A LITTLE COLD YET, BUT FREEZING TEMPS ARE STILL LIKELY -  
LATEST NBM IS SHOWING A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIPPING BELOW 32 AT  
NORTH BEND. NO CHANGES THERE. STAVISH  
 
 
   
AVIATION...09/00Z TAFS  
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF  
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THESE WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING  
WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER DUE TO RECENT  
PRECIPITATION, AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE, AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOW  
CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG ARE LIKELY FOR THE VALLEYS BOTH WEST AND  
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ROSEBURG WHERE  
BROKEN SKY COVER COULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,  
THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD IT  
CLEAR OUT IN ROSEBURG, THEN THE CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG  
WILL INCREASE. -PETRUCELLI  
 
 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2025  
SEAS REMAIN  
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THIS EVENING AS A WEST SWELL PERSIST IN THE  
EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP  
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WEDNESDAY, A  
STRONGER SURFACE LOW IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY  
STEEP SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. -SMITH/PETRUCELLI  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 347 PM PST SAT FEB 8 2025/  
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CLINGING TO LIFE OVER THE  
CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE. OTHERWISE, POST-  
FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY SIGNS OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WEST OF  
THE CASCADES, AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S TO THE EAST.  
 
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.  
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO START TONIGHT.  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE  
CASCADES. OBSERVATIONS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INDICATED A NUMBER OF  
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES. WITH PERSISTING SNOW  
COVER PREVENTING SURFACE WARMING IN WIDE AREAS AND A CHANCE FOR  
CLEARER SKIES THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COVERS KLAMATH, LAKE, MODOC, AND  
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE ALONG  
THE OREGON COAST FOR TONIGHT, WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT  
LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING DURING THE DAY.  
 
A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING  
INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH LONG-TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW IMPACTFUL  
THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE. THE BASIC PATTERN OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
SWINGING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT, BUT THE PLACEMENT IS CRUCIAL. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HITTING THE OREGON COAST  
DIRECTLY, WHILE GFS DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY HAS THE LOW HITTING  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE BOTH OUTCOMES BRING PRECIPITATION TO  
THE AREA, THE EC OUTCOME WOULD BRING MORE IMPACTFUL ACTIVITY WHILE  
THE GFS WOULD HAVE LIGHTER ACTIVITY OVER A SHORTER PERIOD BEFORE  
THE TROUGH TRAVELS FARTHER INLAND. TO EMPHASIZE THIS UNCERTAINTY,  
NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF 3 TO 9  
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THE CASCADES BY THURSDAY EVENING. IN OTHER  
WORDS, THERE'S AN EQUAL 25% CHANCE OF 3 INCHES OR 9 INCHES OF  
SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. FOR PEOPLE, THOSE ARE VERY DIFFERENT  
OUTCOMES IN SPITE OF THEIR EQUAL PROBABILITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE  
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES FOR MORE CERTAINTY.  
 
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL, WITH  
THE GFS SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS BEFORE A RIDGE APPEARS  
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS  
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY LOOKS  
LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE PRECIPITATION AFTER  
WEDNESDAY'S/THURSDAY'S LOW LOOKS LESS IMPACTFUL. -TAD  
 
 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ027>031.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.  
 
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR  
ORZ021-022.  
 
CA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ080>085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS  
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR  
PZZ350-356-370.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.  
 
 
 
 
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