501
FXUS66 KMFR 080523
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
923 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...08/06Z TAFS
A COLD SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS BUT EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR AND IFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION. LOCAL LIFR IS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS AND IN VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY. FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 2000-30000 FOOT RANGE WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1500-2000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST SIDE
BECOMES -SN. ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT KLAMATH FALLS, BUT EXPECT ANY
SNOW WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LINGERING MVFR, MAINLY IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 409 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026/
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2026...WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, WITH
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
BUILD VERY STEEP SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS BAR
AND SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY, BUT MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. -SPILDE/BPN
HIGH SURF...UPDATED 200 PM PST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7, 2026...LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH 15-20 FEET THROUGH THIS
TIME, RESULTING IN A HIGH SURF RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY,
WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 22 TO 26 FEET. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY OFF JETTIES AND REMAIN OUT
OF THE SURF ZONE AS BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO THESE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS. -SPILDE/BPN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026/
SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COLDER AIR IN IT'S WAKE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL DOWN TO 1500 FEET
LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR THE
CASCADES AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20'S IN THE VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION...
A SHARP COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON
AND WILL BE THROUGH OUR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH RAIN RATES UP TO 0.25 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE ALSO RECEIVED A
STORM REPORT FROM ONE CELL AS IT PRODUCED SOME PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR
GOLD BEACH.
SNOW LEVELS WON'T DROP AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ALONG THIS
FRONT. MODEL DATA SHOWS SNOW LEVELS ALONG AND WITHIN THE FRONT
AROUND 2400 TO PERHAPS 2600 FEET, WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN HOW
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN, BUT THEY ARE QUICKLY DROPPING
AS OF WRITING THIS AFD. CAMAS MOUNTAIN IS SITTING AT 34 DEGREES,
WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO FALL TO 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STAY AROUND OR FALL TO 1500 FEET LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
ONE WOULD THINK WE SEE ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SNOW
IMPACTS AROUND 2000 FEET LATER TONIGHT. THE SPC HREF IS STILL
HANGING ONTO A 1-2 INCH SNOW FORECAST AROUND THAT LEVEL WITH A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, WHICH IS PROBABLY ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN
CLIMATOLOGY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. IN ANY CASE, WE FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING AROUND 2000 FEET THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME ACCUMULATION BELOW THAT LEVEL.
PROBABILISTIC DATA AND SOME ECMWF ENS MEMBERS ARE STILL OPEN TO
SOME SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT. GIVEN HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WERE TODAY, IT'S HARD TO SEE ANY SNOW IMPACTS DOWN
TO MEDFORD TONIGHT, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE YOU
BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE. THE NBM SAYS 0% CHANCE FOR AN INCH, BUT
LOCALLY PRODUCED GUIDANCE ON WEATHER.GOV/MFR/WINTER SAYS 23% AS
OF WRITING THIS AFD. THE REALITY BASED ON EXPERIENCE IS SOME WHERE
IN BETWEEN AND CLOSER TO 0%, ALTHOUGH HOW THAT TROUGH AXIS DIGS
IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING.
EVENTUALLY, SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EASTWARDS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AROUND 12Z INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THEY'LL BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER CASCADES DUE TO
STRONGER OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20'S,
WHICH IS NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY. WE DECIDED AGAINST
ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE AVERAGE LOW FOR MFR IS 32
AND WE'RE FORECASTING A LOW OF 27 HERE IN MEDFORD AND 24 IN
ASHLAND. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO REVISIT IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW
OR LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ONE WOULD THINK WE WOULD SEE FOG OR FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WITH ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE TRUSTY MAVMFR MOS BULLETINS
ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF FG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR 1. THEREFORE, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE AVIATION IMPACTS IN THE MORNING OR LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND, THERE ARE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HITTING THE BC COAST WITH LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS IN OUR AREA.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029-030.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ025-027-
028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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