311
FXUS66 KMFR 141043
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF CALM THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM MONDAY'S
TEMPERATURES, AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE CASCADES WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COASTAL SHOWERS THIS EVENING, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL CITIES LOOK TO
SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WHILE COASTAL RANGES COULD SEE
AROUND 2 INCHES. RAINFALL IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH, WITH OTHER VALLEYS AND BASINS SEEING LOWER
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOVER AT 4500-5500 FEET FROM THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINTER IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE AND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, GIVEN THAT
SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CASCADES ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SPC GUIDANCE SHOWS 50-90% CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. GUSTS ALONG WINTER RIM AND THE
WARNER MOUNTAINS HAVE 50-80% CHANCES TO REACH 45 MPH IN THAT LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, PER HREF PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EAST SIDE
AREAS.
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA EASES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT A COLD AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BRING IMPACTFUL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KLAMATH
COUNTY VALLEYS ARE ALL FORECAST TO SEE LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S ON THESE NIGHTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BRING CHANCES OF FROST
OR FREEZING CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE CASCADES, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
CHILLY NIGHTS ASIDE, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY. WHILE SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO 1500-2000 FEET IN THE MORNING, DECLINING ACTIVITY
WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINTER CONDITIONS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM
DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY IS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING PERIODS OF
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE DETAILS ARE STILL COARSE, THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT IN IMAGERY TEND TO INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERNS TEND TO DELIVER MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND COASTAL TERRAIN. DETAILS
REMAIN COARSE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON CONTINUING ACTIVE WEATHER. -TAD
AVIATION 06Z TAFS)
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADES, INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG AND
MEDFORD (20% CHANCE). TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RAIN AND AREAS
OF MVFR WILL SPREAD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TUESDAY EVENING WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN FOR COAST AREAS.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 14, 2026
SEAS
WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL STRENGTH THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
FRONT WILL START PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, STRONG WINDS, AND STEEP SEAS
THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF COOS BAY AS THE FRONT
INITIALLY STARTS TO TRANSITION OVER THE WATERS. STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A THERMAL
TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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