446  
FXUS66 KMFR 181539  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
839 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
830 AM SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES WITH A MARINE PUSH AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS  
MARINE LAYER IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THING TO  
NOTE IS A BIT OF WISPY SMOKE TRAVELING DOWN THE KLAMATH RIVER  
VALLEY TOWARD HAPPY CAMP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING  
BEFORE WINDS TURN TO BE MORE FROM THE NORTH AND BREEZY. THE  
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. -SCHAAF  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 339 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY, THEN  
OVER TIME WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDE WILL  
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND. IN A NUTSHELL THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLING OVER OUR AREA WITH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST INLAND  
LOCATIONS. SO THE DAYS OF 90+ DEGREES HIGH TEMPERATURES WE HAVE  
EXPERIENCED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME  
BEING.  
 
THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE KLAMATH BASIN STANDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES  
BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS BECAUSE WE'LL HAVE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT  
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. BEHIND IT WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER  
AIR MASS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING  
ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR FROST ADVISORIES OUT, BUT IT MAY BE SOME THING  
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE IF DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS.  
 
OTHERWISE WERE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF  
OUR AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTH OF OUT AREA.  
THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE FIRST HINT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR  
AREA MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN  
LARGER UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW VARIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF  
AND GFS NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS POSITION PUTS THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR  
AREA WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ECMWF IS OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST  
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH FAVORS A DRY SCENARIO. FOR NOW  
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 
OF NOTE: THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MIXED SOLUTION WITH  
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SOME MEMBERS FAVORING THE ECMWF  
SOLUTION AND OTHER THE GFS. HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED  
SUGGEST A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE THE AREA WITH A MEAN  
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTH AND  
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. -PETRUCELLI  
 
AVIATION...FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL  
WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET (NEAR-IFR) RETURN TUESDAY  
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.  
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE  
COAST AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE ROSEBURG AREA (THOUGH LESSER WIND  
THERE). -KEENE  
 
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 18 JUNE 2019...A THERMAL  
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS NORTH OF CAPE  
BLANCO AND STRONG NORTH WINDS AND A MIX OF STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS  
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD WIND  
DRIVEN WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 3 NM FROM SHORE TODAY  
INTO THURSDAY. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL  
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THEN CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG  
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS ON  
THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY, MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY  
BUT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE  
BLANCO AND EXPECT STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS.  
 
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY  
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. -CC  
 
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT TUESDAY 18 JUNE 2019...DRY  
WEATHER WITH NO THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT  
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COOLING TREND WITH  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOLING DOWN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER  
RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND IS REPLACED WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER  
THE AREA.  
 
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RH  
RECOVERIES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING  
OVER THE RIDGES OF FIRE ZONES 618,619 620 AND FIRE ZONE 280 IN  
CALIFORNIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS  
INLAND. HOWEVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES IN WESTERN FIRE ZONE 280  
COULD STILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR OVERNIGHT  
RECOVERIES.  
 
FUEL MOISTURES HAVE NOT REACHED CRITICAL LEVELS YET, SO  
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL BE HEADLINES  
IN THE FORECAST.  
 
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EAST OF THE  
CASCADES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE  
LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER  
FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
 
CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR  
PZZ350-356-370-376.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.  
 

 
 
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