374
FXUS66 KMFR 172158
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2026
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND WESTERN
UNITED STATES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THIS KEEPS THE OREGON COAST IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S
WHILE LOW-LYING AREAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CASCADES WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. NORMAL DIURNAL BREEZES AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED. SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL AREAS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOWER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. 30-40% CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST WEST SIDE AREAS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH 10% CHANCES OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP, BUT OVERALL THIS FRIDAY
FRONT IS ENTIRELY UNIMPACTFUL AND FRIDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 10-
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO REPRESENT MINOR
AMOUNTS OF HEATRISK FOR AREA VALLEYS AND BASINS. INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES OR
OTHER EFFECTS AT THESE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, AREA WATERS MAY
REMAIN COLD EVEN AS THE AIR IS WARM. BECOMING QUICKLY SUBMERGED IN
COLDER-THAN-EXPECTED WATER ALSO CARRIES A NUMBER OF HEALTH RISKS,
SOME OF WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE-THREATENING. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHILE EXPLORING OR SWIMMING IN LAKES, RIVERS, OR THE OCEAN.
FRIDAY'S WEAK FRONT DOES MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL SOMEWHAT, WITH
LONG-TERM FORECASTS HAVING DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE'S AGREEMENT ACROSS LONG-
TERM MODELS THAT ACTIVE WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT REACHING THE OREGON
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS SUPPORTING A MORE DIRECT ARRIVAL
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS RIDGING PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FALL WEST OF
AND ALONG THE CASCADES, WITH SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA, WITH EARLY NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAVING A 30-50% CHANCE
OF ADVISORY- LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH) OVER EAST SIDE
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER
BEYOND TUESDAY, MAKING ANY ADDITIONAL LONG-TERM FORECASTING
DIFFICULT. -TAD
AVIATION...17/18Z TAFS
AREAS OF LIFR COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPED
LATE LAST NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNING, BUT ARE STILL PRESENT
THIS MORNING. THIS INCLUDES OTH/NORTH BEND WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED, BUT WITH AN EARLIER ONSET, AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY, MARCH 17, 2026
WEST SWELL
BUILDS INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH GALES POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY, AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY, AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THE WEST SWELL DOMINATED
SEAS THAT FOLLOW MAY BECOME VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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