866
FXUS66 KMFR 162014
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
114 PM PDT THU APR 16 2026
DISCUSSION
AS THE LARGE UPPERS LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE EATS
TODAY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
AND COLD AIR SETTLING IN, WE ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT/MORNING, WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE,
ILLINOIS, AND PARTS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE UMPQUA AND
COQUILLE BASINS.
A MORE STABLE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GUIDE
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. COASTAL AREAS MAY REACH THE LOW 60S,
WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. TO THE
EAST, EXPECTED TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS AND BASINS ARE ON THE MID
TO HIGH 60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS
WIDE VARIATION ON HOW IT WILL TRACK. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY, AND EVEN
THAT IS UNCERTAIN, AS SOME ENSEMBLES KEEP PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE.
OVERALL, ACROSS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUITES, THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT NORTH BEND ON SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW DIPS FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE
HOVERING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THIS POINT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING SHOWERS FOCUSED ON CURRY AND SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS OF 5000-6000 FEET AT THIS POINT
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT
WIDESPREAD WINTER IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN. THE
MODELED LOW MOVES INLAND OVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOKING AS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (AROUND
15-20%).
OVERALL, NOTHING IN THIS SYSTEM'S FORECAST BEHAVIOR LOOKS
ESPECIALLY THREATENING, BUT THIS IS A VERY PRELIMINARY
IMPRESSION. CHANCES OF WINDS EXCEEDING 35 MPH (A SPEED SAFELY
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS) ARE MINIMAL IN NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, TOPPING OUT AT 20-40% OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS IN MODOC
COUNTY AND 10-20% OVER SOME OTHER EAST SIDE PEAKS THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN FAVOR GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER NEARBY TERRAIN, BUT MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL THIS FAR OUT. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS STAY
IN THE 5000-6000 FOOT RANGE. CURRY COUNTY, WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AND THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THIS TIMEFRAME. BUT TO REPEAT, EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM COULD CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HOLD OF ITS POTENTIAL.
PAST WEDNESDAY, DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY STARTS TO DIVERGE. ENSEMBLE
TRENDS SHOW SOME EXPECTATION OF A WARM, DRY PERIOD TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS
INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER TERRAIN
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION). THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON (AND
THEY COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF ROSEBURG AND/OR MEDFORD), BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE WITH CUMULUS SPREADING OUT AND
FLATTENING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT, WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (VFR).
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
PARTICULARLY THE UMPQUA VALLEY (AND PERHAPS AT ROSEBURG) FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE AND SHOULD
PERSIST THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 16, 2026
FRESH NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. SEAS COULD BE AROUND 10 FT. WINDS EASE
SOME THIS EVENING, BUT A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS/STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A RETURN TO
ACTIVE WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ORZ024-026.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ORZ021-023.
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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