839
FXUS66 KMFR 152135
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARER SKIES WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS EAST AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS AFTERNOON IS TURNING TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MORE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND WITH 60S AT THE COAST.
TO START THE WEEK OFF THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WARM UP IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. STARTING TOMORROW, MORNINGS WILL HAVE 40S EAST, 50S
WEST AND MID-40S AT THE COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH. THERE
WILL BE A 3-6 DEGREE COOLDOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS
ENOUGH TO BRING A RAIN CHANCE (15-20%) TO MORE OF LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A PORTION OF EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTIES THAT WILL BE UNDER A 15-20% RISK
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STRONGER WINDS NEARING 10-15
MPH, AND THEY WILL BE STRONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN CLOSER
TO SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM: THE REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMES CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LARGER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD. THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. RAIN IS
LOOKING TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS IS A WEEK OUT, WE WILL CONTINUE LOOKING AT THIS
EVENT THROUGH THE WEEK. -HERMANSEN
AVIATION...15/18Z TAFS
WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR TODAY OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 30KT. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST
TONIGHT, BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND.
-SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM SUNDAY, JUNE 15, 2025
SEAS WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY A MIX OF CHOPPY, NORTHERLY WIND WAVE AND STEEP FRESH
SWELL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH. A WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO DISRUPT THE PATTERN
AND BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS THAT COULD LAST INTO MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. -SPILDE/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 426 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025/
UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE
VFR AREA WIDE. WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR TODAY OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS
AND PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 30KT.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST TONIGHT, BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW MILES INLAND. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025/
DISCUSSION...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA NEAR 53N AND 136W. THIS IS RESULTING IN BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE (CIRRUS), THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND WILL YIELD A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. IT'LL ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM 80-90F OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES (88F HERE IN MEDFORD) AND
GENERALLY 75-85F OVER EAST SIDE LOCATIONS AND IN NE CALIFORNIA.
IT'LL BE COOLER AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET
WITH HIGHS OF 60-70F. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALSO UP ALONG THE CASCADES, BUT
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SWING ONSHORE ON MONDAY WITH MAXTS
TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING WEAK INSTABILITY TO AREAS FROM AROUND MT. SHASTA OVER
TO THE MEDICINE LAKE REGION AND FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. LATEST CAMS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BRING SOME CONGESTED CUMULUS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS FROM WINTER RIM EASTWARD DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. A FEW THESE COULD DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS AND THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS REMAINS PRETTY
DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS, SO IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH RAIN
TO THE SURFACE, BUT MOST OF THE HI-RES IS SHOWING SOME SIMULATED
RADAR RETURNS AT PEAK HEATING. WE'VE ADDED POPS OF 15-30% IN THESE
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWER/T-STORM POTENTIAL, THERE SHOULD
AT LEAST BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES AS WELL,
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. ONCE THE SUN SETS MONDAY
EVENING, THE SHOWER RISK ENDS.
A STABLE PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER MARINE PUSH AT THE COAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD RESULT IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
NEAR THE COAST. BUT, BY AND LARGE, THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH SUNNY, WARM AFTERNOONS. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE ROGUE
VALLEY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PINWHEELING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NE PACIFIC AND INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
(SUMMER BEGINS). WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF BREEZY, MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA, BUT WE'RE LESS
CONFIDENT ON THUNDER POTENTIAL AND JUST EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER, BUT THAT
PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. RIGHT NOW,
BEST SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST, THEN
SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE
CASCADES SATURDAY, BUT SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY AT LEAST 10-15F BELOW NORMAL. MODEL THUNDER PROBABILITIES
ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW (LESS THAN 10%), BUT WE'LL MONITOR THIS AS
WE GET CLOSER. -SPILDE
AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS...VFR AREAWIDE WILL EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR/MVFR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY TONIGHT, LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 25% CHANCE FOR IFR AT NORTH
BEND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND A 12% CHANCE FOR MVFR AT ROSEBURG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT MENTION OF IFR/MFR OUT OF THE NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT. ACROSS INLAND AREAS, THE HIGHEST GUSTS FOR TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 KT. -CC
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM SUNDAY, JUNE 15, 2025...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND PERSIST TODAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY A MIX OF CHOPPY, NORTHERLY WIND WAVE AND STEEP FRESH
SWELL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH. A WEAK FRONT EARLY ON MONDAY IS LIKELY TO DISRUPT THE PATTERN
AND BRING IMPROVED CONDITIONS THAT COULD LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
-SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page