513
FXUS66 KMFR 152353
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
453 PM PDT WED APR 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...16/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH WIDEPSREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE OCCURRING. A
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIG/VSBYS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING, AREAS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A LOW END VFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK LINGERS OVER THE WEST
SIDE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AREA WIDE. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1253 PM PDT WED APR 15 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. STEADY
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATER TODAY, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES.
THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING CONCERNS. LOCALIZED FREEZING CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY. A
FREEZE WATCH COVERS THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME,
AS THERE'S SOME QUESTION HOW COLD THAT NIGHT WILL GET.
A NUMBER OF HAZARD PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE TO FURTHER COMMUNICATE THE
IMPACTS OF THIS ACTIVE PERIOD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AND ABOVE 4000 FEET REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NORTH OF ALTURAS IN
MODOC COUNTY HIGHLIGHTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DETAILS FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN COARSE, WITH SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
OUTCOMES. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT TENDS
TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT CURRY COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, PER ECMWF IMAGERY. OR IT MIGHT BOUNCE OFF A RIDGE
AND LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC BEFORE MOVING INLAND ON MONDAY, PER GFS
IMAGERY. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS ARE IN THE 5000-7000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH
WOULD LIMIT WINTER IMPACTS. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND MONDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM BEHAVES.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15, 2026...A
PASSING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AND THERE COULD BE AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT (20%-25%) AROUND AND NORTH/NORTHWEST
OF CAPE BLANCO. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND STEEP SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ027.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ080.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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