468
FXUS66 KMFR 262228
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS PLENTY OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVER THE REGION, WITH SOME
ALTOCUMULUS STREAMING ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR, BUT NONE OF THE GROUND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AND IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
VIRGA. ALSO SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM THAT WILL FINALLY BRING US THE FIRST DECENT PACIFIC FRONT
IN MORE THAN 2 WEEKS. BEFORE THIS FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY QUITE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME BREEZIER WINDS IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY AS THIS
SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT WINDS WILL RAMP UP
MORESO TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM PACKS SOME DECENT 925-850MB WINDS AND WILL SUPPORT A
BAND OF RAIN THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, BUT WE DON'T THINK THEY'LL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH
WIND WARNING. MODEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ONLY -4 TO -6 MB KOTH-
KACV AND WHILE THAT SUPPORTS PEAK WIND GUSTS AT THE COASTAL
HEADLANDS OF 45-55 MPH, THAT'S NOT QUITE THERE FOR A WARNING.
FARTHER INLAND, THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL GET BREEZY TO WINDY ON
TUESDAY (ESP SHASTA VALLEY). MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR SSE WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT WEED. ADDITIONALLY,
WIND DIRECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR LINING UP WITH THE ROGUE VALLEY
FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY MORNING, SO WE COULD SEE WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. WE'VE INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA ALONG
WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND AT NPWMFR. IT'LL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS THE WHOLE
REGION WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. ONE POSITIVE OF
THESE GUSTY WINDS IS WE WILL FINALLY GET SOME FRESHER AIR IN HERE AS
THE WINDS CLEAR OUT POLLUTANTS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
PROLONGED STAGNANT CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES INLAND, SO WHILE WE STAND
A GOOD CHANCE (~60-70%) OF AT LEAST SEEING A LITTLE RAINFALL HERE IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS THAN 0.10
OF AN INCH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, SOME OF THE
DRIEST MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP COMPLETELY SKIPPING OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THE COAST AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL GET THE MOST
WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH AND LOCALLY UP TO 1.00 INCH IN THE CURRY
COAST RANGE MOUNTAINS. EAST SIDE AREAS LARGELY MISS OUT ON THE RAIN,
BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS HOVER AROUND 5000 FT FOR THIS SYSTEM, AND WITH THE FRONT
WEAKENING, WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW TOTALS. SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS WILL BE MINIMAL, GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS.
BEYOND TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORM TRACK IS FOR THE NEXT FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND WOULD BE
LEAST FAVORABLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH OF THE
OR/CA BORDER LEAST FAVORED. THIS TREND ONLY SHARPENS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK GETS DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
PORTLAND/SEATTLE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES INTO IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING GLANCING
BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COAST DURING THIS TIME. SO
WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE, THERE STILL AREN'T ANY
CLEAR SIGNALS SHOWING A SOLID RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS OR
BUILDING SNOWPACK IN THE REGION. /BR-Y
AVIATION...26/18Z TAFS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
PASSING TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES, AND
TONIGHT'S CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY
FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, SO
EXPECT RA AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 26, 2026
SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING, WITH STEEP SEAS
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN GALES AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS
SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING WILL START IN THE
MORNING FOR OUTER WATERS BEFORE GOING TO ALL WATERS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS REACH A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT, IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
SLIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A BUILDING LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 13 TO 17 FT AT 15 SECONDS.
SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS REMAINING STEEP. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE WEEKEND IS FOR SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SEAS BECOMING
DOMINATED BY ANOTHER STEEP, BUILDING WEST SWELL.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ026.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
MNF/DW/ANH
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