723
FXUS66 KMTR 301135
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
435 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH COOLING TREND BEGINNING.
- LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A BIT INTERESTING, WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WHILE WEAK RIDGING FLATTENS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS WE SHOULD BEGIN A COOLING TREND. LOOKING AT
THE SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z SUN AND 0Z MON, THE 925MB AND 850MB REMAINED
WARM. GIVEN THE FORECAST ISN'T DEVIATING TOO MUCH, LOOKED INTO THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, PLUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. BOTH
FAVORED ELEVATED TEMPERATURES IN THOSE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM OUT PUT. OPTED
TO RUN WITH THE NBM EXP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCES PASSES OVER THE
PACNW. EACH TIME RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND
0.10" OR LESS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UP TO A 0.25" IN THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW SLIDES DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN. BREEZIER OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR. DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS EASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING OFFSHORE TO
LOCALLY VARIABLE. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GRADUAL LOWERING (BUT STILL VFR CEILINGS) EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z
ON TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT, OFFSHORE TO VARIABLE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL SEE GRADUAL
LOWERING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT RETURN LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND SEAS BUILD TO 10
TO 12 FEET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page