584
FXUS66 KMTR 300707
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1207 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WORK WEEK. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM POINT
REYES SOUTHWARD AS OF 1200 AM PDT. MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING. TODAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
WITH COASTAL AREAS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
WARMER FOR THE INLAND COMMUNITIES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST,
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SEE THE
BEACHES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S., AND ZONAL FLOW SETS IN. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ONLY TO
MINOR HEATRISK LEVELS. THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THE
CENTER FOR THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE RIDGING
WILL BE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT
BAYSHORE AND COASTAL TERMINALS RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT; HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS COMING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR
AREAS NEAR SFO AND OAK. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CIGS FILL BACK
IN AROUND THE BAY REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON A CEILING RETURNING NEAR
11-13Z, WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY. REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS A
DONUT HOLE DEVELOPS OVER THE TERMINAL WITH STRATUS REMAINING
CONFINED ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES. STRATUS NOT STICKING AROUND
FOR TOO LONG, BECOMING VFR AFTER 16Z WITH ELEVATED WINDS RETURNING
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH HAS LOW
PROBABILITIES (<30%) FOR DEVELOPING A CEILING BELOW FL045.
REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
TERMINAL AND NORTHWARD.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DIURNAL WINDS
PREVAILING AT SJC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING
AT OAK TONIGHT VIA A STRATUS FEED THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE GAP
BETWEEN 11-17Z. VFR INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WESTERLY
WINDS FOR BOTH SITES. CIGS RETURNING TO OAK LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL COVER BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING LOOKING LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS
TUESDAY 16-18Z, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT SNS. LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT BECOMING ELEVATED WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIGS RETURNING A BIT
EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 03-05Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 817 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AND THE COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. THIS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE POINT REYES
COASTAL JET REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A BIT WEAKER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO
BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES
WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE
SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS,
JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND SURFING CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS,
ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER
TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF AND TIDE FORECASTS AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MALARKEY
LONG TERM....MALARKEY
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...APR
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