232
FXUS66 KMTR 030714
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1214 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EACH DAY, RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR MANY EACH AFTERNOON. UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH
A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL BE SEEN AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, WITH A WARMUP EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE LOW-END CHANCES FOR SOME INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE
MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(TODAY AND SATURDAY)
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN EARLY ON FRIDAY, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE HEIGHT RISE OVER THE AREA, WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH SOME BREAKS ALLOWING FOR THE SUN TO PEAK
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE 60S. INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE SOME WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING A 3-5 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
OVERALL, A PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD OF US WITH MINOR (YELLOW)
HEATRISK FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
GENERALLY SEEING A 1-3 DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING INLAND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE MID 80S, WITH SOME
REACHING THE UPPER 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES IS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE FORECAST WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE WILL SEE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. AS WAS SEEN LAST WEEK, THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT/MORNING, WHICH
MAY REMAIN OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, A POTENT WAVE WILL START TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST OR
JUST OFF THE COAST OVER THE PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON WHERE THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SUBTLE FORECAST DIFFERENCES AS WE GET
CLOSER. IN EITHER CASE THROUGH, WE WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN TIME, FLOW OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL AT 500 HPA. WITH THIS PATTERN
IN MIND, IT WOULD SEEM LIKE ARE ARE GOING TO ENTER ANOTHER WARMING
REGIME MIDWEEK AND BEYOND , ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CPC
SUPPORTS THIS, INDICATING FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
80S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH SOME IN THE LOW 90S NOT OUT OF
QUESTION. WHILE NOT A LARGE SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE MODERATE (ORANGE)
HEATRISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS STRETCH. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL RANGE FROM LOW (GREEN) TO MINOR (YELLOW) HEATRISK. THIS
WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH ONSHORE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE STRATUS IS FILLING IN AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND IS
GENERALLY COMING IN A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. THIS MAY BRING SOME MORE IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE COAST AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON MUCH
LIKE TODAY. ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING BREEZY AT THE USUAL WIND-PRONE
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THEY LOOK SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN
TODAY. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SOME TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VICINITY OF SFO...TONIGHT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
PERSISTENT AND SKIES TO REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CLOUDS BELOW 2000 FEET BRIEFLY TOWARDS MORNING. VFR
ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS RETURNING AT SFO
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...STRATUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS EAST OF KOAK AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE
TERMINAL AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE MAY DROP INTO IFR CATEGORY TOWARDS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE MORNING
ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR SJC, DRAINAGE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH AROUND 21Z, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST.
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AT OAK IS LIKELY AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED AND THESE MAY
DROP FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TO IFR TOWARDS MORNING. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AGAIN. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
QUICKLY AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND COULD COME IN IFR OR CLOSE TO IT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHILE WINDS EASE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL ABATE TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO BUILD AGAIN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...KIDWELL
MARINE...MURDOCK
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