503
FXUS66 KMTR 071006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
206 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FROM SWELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES.
- 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 205 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CURRENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE BAY AREA.
EVENTUALLY, THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE THE VIEW OF THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS AND INTO
THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS, AND SALINAS VALLEY. MANY OBS AROUND AND
SOUTH OF SFO/OAK ARE SHOWING MORE OF A LOW STRATUS LAYER WITH
CEILINGS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND 600 FEET. WHEREAS LOOKING AT
LOCAL WEBCAMS IN THE NORTH BAY, IT APPEARS THAT ANY DENSE FOG IS
ISOLATED WHICH PREVENTS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER, SHOULD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHER THAN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST, MOSTLY 60S INLAND, AND THE CHANCE FOR
LOW 70S IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RADIATIVE FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
OBSERVED TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER OREGON LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (AND POINTS
NORTH), THE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SOME
MEASURABLE (ALBEIT LIMITED) PRECIP TO FALL IN THE NORTH BAY. THE
MOST RECENT NBM IS A LITTLE BULLISH ABOUT TIMING, BRINGING POPS IN
MUCH SOONER THAN ANY ENSEMBLE SUITE OR HI-RES GUIDANCE. THE
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO KEEP THE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY TODAY, BUT LIKELY NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL TRAVEL. WHILE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SAN FRANCISCO/OAKLAND, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 205 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP STYMIE
ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE BAY AREA AND
THE CENTRAL COAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS TROUGH HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN, MODELED QPF CONTINUES TO TREND
DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. PERHAPS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE COASTAL RANGES COULD SEE A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN,
BUT A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
WITH INLAND RAIN SHADOWED AREAS MAYBE SEEING A TENTH.
COOLER AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MORE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
INLAND AREAS TO HAVE LOWS RETURN INTO THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK MOMENTARILY INTO THE
LOW 60S. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
THE BAY OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND DEEPEN BELOW 530 DAM OUT OVER THE
OCEAN, WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT IN LOCATION,
RAIN AMOUNTS, AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS. BUT MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THAT THIS COULD BE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN OVER THE AREA. AND WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE, HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S, IF NOT
UPPER 30S, ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 942 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
MARINE STRATUS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND LOCALIZED FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING ALL TAF TERMINALS. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
NEAR STS AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM IS LOWER, BUT
NOT ZERO. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS ERODING BACK TO THE COAST. PREVAILING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO ADVANCE INTO THE TERMINALS
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY
BE LIGHT, WITH ONSHORE OR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PRIMARILY ONSHORE WINDS ON SATURDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL
BY 08Z, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 20Z
BEFORE IMPROVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAINLY LIGHT WNW AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE SF BAY OVERNIGHT, REACHING OAK AROUND 07Z AND SJC 08-10Z.
CONDITIONS MAINLY IFR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH SITES, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE AT SJC.
STRATUS ERODING BY 19-20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE LOW STRATUS PUSHING BACK IN FROM THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT NW TO
VARIABLE.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHORT
BREAKS IN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT NW TO VARIABLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH WIND PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE FAR OUTER WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SEAS THEN DIMINISHING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS GRADUALLY DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE SEAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A NEW SWELL TRAIN COMES INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 205 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AT ALL PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES, THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES 17 TO 22 FEET.
REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MRY
BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....DK
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...DIALH
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