597
FXUS66 KMTR 011145
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
445 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
COASTAL CLOUDS MOVING INLAND EACH NIGHT WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
A SLIGHT DISRUPTION TO THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE
OF STRATUS, ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE AND SOME OF THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. BODEGA BAY PROFILER
DOESN'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MARINE LAYER UNLIKE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS WHERE IT WAS VERY PRONOUNCED. REGARDLESS, STRATUS STILL
COVERS A LARGE ARE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. DID KEEP A MENTION
OF TERRAIN FAVORED DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOO.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WITH IN A FEW DEGREES OF
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S NEAR THE
COAST/BAYS AND 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. THE CALENDAR MAY SAY IT'S
THE START TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND IT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN. EVEN WITH THE GRADUAL WARM UP HIGHS WILL
ONLY RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. STILL NOT MUCH OF A HEAT RISK CONCERN WITH MOST OF THE
REGION STILL IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
AS NOTED ON EARLIER DISCUSSIONS FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
(ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC) BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO SOCAL NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%). LATEST NBM DOES GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE ROBUST WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. STILL LOTS OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
THE FORECAST, BUT AT THIS POINT ODDS FOR SOME PRECIP CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2023
A MORE DIFFUSE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
NORTH BAY. THAT BEING SAID, TERMINALS THAT ARE BEING IMPACTED BY
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. WITH THE EXCEPTION
AROUND MONTEREY BAY DO EXPECT SOLID VFR CONDITIONS MID-LATE
MORNING. MONTEREY BAY WILL HOLD ONTO CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH
A BRIEF WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR VFR. CIGS WILL MOVE INLAND
AGAIN TONIGHT. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS BARELY OVER THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING
WITH LESS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. REGARDLESS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 17-18Z THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
26KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...DIFFERENT CONDITIONS OVER THE APPROACH. VFR
CONDITIONS AND EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. THIS SHOULD
HELP WITH TRAFFIC FLOW, ESPECIALLY IF AIRCRAFT CAN COME IN UNDER
CIGS HUGGING OVER TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMRY COULD SEE BRIEF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
BREEZY W/SW FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM PDT WED MAY 31 2023
BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PIGEON
POINT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEPER WIND WAVES AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, A MIX OF NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY
SWELLS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ535.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ540-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ545-560.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ565.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ570.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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