507
FXUS66 KMTR 240403
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
903 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- WARMING PEAKS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR HEATRISK
- AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1219 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AROUND 1200-1500 FT TODAY WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING STEADY EROSION FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. SUBTLE WEAK
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HELPING COMPRESS THE
MARINE LAYER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS LOW CLOUDS PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND SPREAD AND AN UPTICK IN COASTAL FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER, WITH
VISIBILITY IMPACTS MOST PREVALENT FOR COASTAL TERRAIN. AS SUCH,
CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS,
ENCOURAGING SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEYS. MINOR HEATRISK WILL BE ONE OF THE
MAIN THREATS FOR THE SHORT TERM, PEAKING TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
VALLEYS AND INLAND SPOTS REACH THE 80S AND INTERIOR AREAS REACH THE
90S. DESPITE THIS WARMING TREND, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
OVER-PERFORMING WITH HIGHS FOR THE SOUTH BAY AS IT STRUGGLES TO
RESOLVE THE SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE AREAS WHERE MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST BEACHES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AND THE BEACHES DISCUSSION SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1219 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL START MEANDERING DOWN ALONG THE
CANADIAN COASTLINE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS COOLER, MOIST AIR FILLS IN, MARINE LAYER DEPTH
SHOULD PUSH CLOSER TO 1500-2000FT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR AREAS. HIGHS WILL
FALL 4-8 DEGREES FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY FOR INLAND SPOTS, WITH
FURTHER COOLING INTO SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW. BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE AREAS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. WINDS
WEAKEN SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES UP INTO MONTANA AND WEAK RIDGING WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, SOME LONG-RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A PREVAILING TROUGHING PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT WARMING
FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT COMPARED TO THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLDOWN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
IT'S VFR EXCEPT FOR STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRATUS MIXES OUT TO THE COASTLINE WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STRATUS REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MIX OUT TO VFR 19Z WEDNESDAY. STRATUS
/MVFR-IFR/ RETURNS WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO
12 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BEGINNING 19Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN EASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...FOR SJC AIRPORT VFR FOR THE EVENING,
THEN STRATUS /MVFR/ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THEN MIXES OUT TO VFR 17Z
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DECREASING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR OAK AIRPORT STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ PREVAILS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT TO VFR 19Z. STRATUS
/MVFR-IFR/ RETURNS WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ MOVES INLAND TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ RETURNS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 815 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS WILL
INCREASE TO 17 TO 19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES,
POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...NAVARRETE
LONG TERM....NAVARRETE
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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