446
FXUS66 KMTR 142309
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
409 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKING FRIDAY
- COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM TODAY
FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN PABLO BAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MID TO
LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 219 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY OFFERS LITTLE TO SEE ON SATELLITE WITH
BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES AREA WIDE. OFFSHORE RIDGING OVER THE EPAC IS
HELPING TO LIFT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. WE'RE SEEING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THAT
HAVE PEAKED BETWEEN 20-25 MPH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED THOSE SPEEDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE A A FWW OR RFW OUT, WE ARE MESSAGING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE GUSTIEST WINDS ARE AT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS DUE TO CRITICALLY DRY FUELS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR
SKIES AS OFFSHORE ERODES ANY MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN SOME COOL
SPOTS IN INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHILE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WE'LL SEE WARMER SPOTS FROM THERMAL BELTING ABOVE 1000FT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 219 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY
WITH SIMILAR WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW, THERMAL BELTING AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND
EVEN WORSE DAYTIME RETENTION THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
BY SUNDAY, A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE WILL SHIFT US BACK TO WIDESPREAD
ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALLS, CURRENTLY
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE CENTRAL COAST WITH LESS THAN A 0.25"
BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED AT MOST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 409 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT THAT SHOWS HAF GETTING FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. IF IT DOES HAPPEN, THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE 03-07Z BEFORE OFFSHORE WINDS MIX OUT THE
LOWER LAYERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE A MODERATE
OFFSHORE PUSH IN THE INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING, BALANCED BY A GENTLE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MODERATE
SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE
NEARSHORE WATERS OBSERVE MODERATE TO SLIGHT SEAS. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
BUILDING SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 502 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
EAST BAY HILLS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTH BAY
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS UP TO
45MPH OR HIGHER FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE EAST BAY HILLS WILL
BE BREEZY AS WELL, BUT MAY BE CLOSER TO 25-35 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUST FOR EXPOSED RIDGES AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BOTH
AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY, WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE BREEZY WINDS, WARMER WEATHER, AND AVAILABLE FUELS LEADS TO
THE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...JM
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