235
FXUS66 KMTR 111949
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1249 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES
- INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES ANTICIPATED
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1241 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
DESPITE THE BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SKIES, THERE IS A LOT GOING ON TODAY. WE
ARE DEALING WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, OFFSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF
COASTAL STRATUS MOVING UP THE CENTRAL COAST, COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORE, AND A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT FROM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LET'S DISCUSS EACH OF THESE WEATHER
IMPACTS INDIVIDUALLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING AFTERNOON. TODAY MARKS THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL HOTSPOTS. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY, AND WILL CHALLENGE SOME DAILY RECORDS.
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SPARED FROM SOME OF THIS HEAT THANKS
TO A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND DEVELOPING SW WINDS. HOWEVER
THIS RELIEF WON'T MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND, AND IT'S ALREADY 89
DEGREES IN SAN FRANCISCO.
OFFSHORE WIND AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TODAY. WHILE THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS EXPIRED AT 9 AM, WE ARE
STILL OBSERVING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
ABOVE 1,000 FT ELEVATION. THE STRONG PUSH OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS
WANING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO WEAKEN. THE SFO-
WMC GRADIENT BOTTOMED OUT AT -9.6 MB AT 7 AM AND HAS NOW RISEN TO -
8.1 MB AND WILL CONTINUE TO NEUTRALIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WHILE TODAY IS HOTTER AND DRIER THAN YESTERDAY, THE OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO END THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF COASTAL STRATUS IS MOVING UP THE CENTRAL COAST.
CURRENTLY REACHING BIG SUR, THIS PUSH OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IMPACTS ON HWY-1 AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE.
HIGH TIDE FLOODING WILL OCCUR NIGHTLY ALONG THE BAYSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPCOMING NEW MOON AND
LUNAR PERIGEE ON SUNDAY, AND ABOUT 7 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ANOMALY FROM A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE, THERMAL EXPANSION OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND ABOUT 2 INCHES INCHES OF SEA LEVEL RISE
SINCE THE VERTICAL DATUMS WERE ESTABLISHED IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL
ADD UP TO BRING TIDES UP TO 1.8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE LOWER THAN THE HISTORIC TIDAL FLOODING IN JANUARY
(PEAKED AT 2.6 FT) THE TIDES THIS WEEKEND COULD END UP BEING THE
HIGHEST OBSERVED IN THE SUMMER, BEATING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 1.7
FT FROM JULY 2022.
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES. BUOYS ARE REPORTING MIXED SEAS WITH A COMBINATION OF NW WIND
WAVES AND SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS AROUND 5 FEET WITH
A 16 SECOND PERIOD. THESE WAVES MAY GO UNNOTICED BY SHIPS AT SEA,
BUT WHEN LONG PERIOD WAVES REACH THE COAST THEY GROW MUCH HIGHER
THAN STANDARD WAVES AND BRING STRONGER CURRENTS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
IS SNEAKER WAVES, PARTICULARLY ON S AND SW FACING BEACHES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1241 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COME DOWN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO COOL A
COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT THE COAST WILL SHIFT INTO THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MARINE LAYER PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE
MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO
TEMPORARILY DEEPEN A BIT. BASICALLY THE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS BACK TO
NORMAL, BUT WE WILL STILL DEAL WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELL AND HIGH
TIDE FLOODING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
ONSHORE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE TO A MODERATE BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISH BY SUNSET TIME. CURRENTLY, A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS DETECTED VIA SATELLITE IS MAKING ITS WAY UP ALONG THE
BIG SUR COASTLINE. THIS SURGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE,
MAINLY WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT COASTAL SITES AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING (02-03Z), AFFECTING
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS FIRST, THEN KHAF, AND SPILL THROUGH THE
GOLDEN GATE. THE EXTENT OF THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED
AND RECEDES TO THE COASTLINE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF STRATUS IMPACT.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
EVENING. AS THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF STRATUS MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
GOLDEN GATE TONIGHT (~05-06Z), A FEW CLOUDS MAY TRICKLE OVER THE
AIRSPACE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT OPERATIONS AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO A
GENTLE BREEZE. WHILE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AT KSFO DUE TO THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY, KOAK WILL REMAIN NW. BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND MODERATE (10-13KTS).
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL BEGIN TO FILL
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MONTEREY BAY BEFORE CIRCULATING DOWN INTO
THE PENINSULA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT KSNS FIRST BEFORE FILLING IN OVER KMRY. CEILINGS WILL BE
BORDERLINE IFR-LIFR AND MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT WILL
PREDOMINATELY REMAIN IFR. THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
IMPACT VISIBILITY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH IS WHEN CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
GALE FORCE GUSTS LINGER IN THE NORTHER OUTER WATERS WHILE WINDS
OVERALL WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE TO GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WINDS EASE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY
SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO,
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. BE SURE CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD
OUT. SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER
WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD
IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 11TH.
STATION RECORD HIGHS JUNE 11TH
SANTA ROSA 100 IN 2019
SAN RAFAEL 97 IN 1985
NAPA 102 IN 2019
LIVERMORE 105 IN 1985
SAN FRANCISCO 92 IN 2019, 1877
SFO AIRPORT 98 IN 2019
REDWOOD CITY 102 IN 2019
OAKLAND MUSEUM 99 IN 2019
HALF MOON BAY 85 IN 2019
SAN JOSE 99 IN 2019
MONTEREY AIRPORT 92 IN 2019
SALINAS AIRPORT 104 IN 2019
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ006-508.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ503-504-506-
508.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ505-
509-529.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ506.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ510-513>515.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...CANEPA
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