092
FXUS66 KMTR 021749
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1049 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1237 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVED AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF 21.75 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND A 500 MB HEIGHT OF 5900 METERS; BOTH OF THESE ARE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 20.6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 5883 METERS,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER, KEEPING IT CONFINED TO THE COAST AND
SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR
BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND
MONTEREY BAY WILL OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1237 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR FROM 11AM
SATURDAY THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY. THIS COVERS THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AS
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING DRIFTS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER AROUND 500 FEET IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME; HOWEVER, IF IT ERODES FROM OFFSHORE FLOW
OR CLOUDS FAIL TO DEVELOP, THE COAST WILL BE HOTTER THAN FORECAST.
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE REBOUNDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT, IT IS GOING TO BE HOT FOR THE
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER, WEAKER THAN NORMAL ONSHORE FLOW, AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL BRING LESS RELIEF THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NEARING THE END OF OUR HEAT SEASON,
CUMULATIVE HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH ALL
THAT BEING SAID, NO RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AS OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE
HOTTEST MONTHS FOR THE REGION. FINALLY BY THURSDAY, 44% OF GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE VIA
FALLING HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF
WHERE LIFR PERSISTS. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, YET WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY WITH THEM MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW.
WINDS EASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SUB-IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. WINDS EASE LATE IN THE EVENING WITH A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF SUB-MVFR (AS LOW AS LIFR) BETWEEN 10Z-16Z SATURDAY
BASED OFF OF THE NBM. THUS, HAVE LEFT CEILINGS/FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH SFO AND OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-MVFR AND AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY A 40-55% PROBABILITY FROM 02Z-15Z SATURDAY.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN
15Z-18Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK. DAYTIME HUMIDITY RETENTION WILL
REMAIN POOR TO VERY POOR AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHILE
OVERNIGHT, THE THERMAL BELTS REMAIN ACTIVE AND HUMIDITY RETENTION
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS POOR. PUSHES OF OFFSHORE FLOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH MORNING. HAZARDOUS HEAT
BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING FIRE CREWS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-
506-508-529-530.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ503-
504-508-510-512>518.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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