037
FXUS66 KMTR 250010
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
510 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE
FRIDAY. CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SETUP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE THE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ONSHORE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND MARINE LAYER THICKNESS INCREASED AS THE
LOW MOVED CLOSER. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WELL IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HARDER FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INLAND TONIGHT. THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY A FEW PATCHES IN THE
NORTH BAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOL
AND CLOUDY THURSDAY.
WHILE THURSDAY CONTINUES THE TREND OF CLOUDY SKIES, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS, ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING BACK
SOME BREEZIER NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
STILL CLOUDY AND COOL WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE FOR EARLY FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES JUST
ENOUGH FOR LOWER CLOUDS. FRIDAY'S PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGE FROM THE
LOW'S EXIT WILL MAKE FOR EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
SPECIFICALLY FOR HIGHER PEAKS AND ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. THE MORE
ACTIVE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CLEARING OF CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON
WHILE THE NEW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL ALLOWS FOR ONSHORE FLOW,
CLOUD COVER BECOMES LESS PERVASIVE. WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CLOUD COVER, MOST AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE
INLAND AND WELL INTO THE INTERIOR WILL SEE QUICKER CLEARING TIMES.
THIS WILL PLACE MOST AREAS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, WHILE THE COAST WILL STICK TO AROUND 60 DEGREE HIGHS.
LONGER TERM MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT MONTH. WHILE THE ECMWF FAMILIES PLACE RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST, OTHERS FAVOR MORE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS, AND A FEW KEEP THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MVFR TO RETURN BY LATE THIS EVENING.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILING HEIGHTS DECREASING HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD THIS WILL HELP TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND PUSH CEILINGS
DOWN TO LOW-END MVFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP
MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND INTO THE NEXT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SLIGHTLY WITH OBS SHOWING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP MID
TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
T HE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN WINDS TRENDING
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WHICH MAY RESULT IN GUSTS NEEDING TO
BE UPPED IN FUTURE TAFS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY CONDITIONS AT MRY
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT. FOR BOTH MRY AND SNS, WESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS RETURNING
BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN GUSTIER
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS RETURN FRIDAY. NEAR GALE FORCE TO GALE
FORCE GUSTS INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD STARTING FRIDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE INLAND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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