659
FXUS66 KMTR 090159
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
559 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR PROMOTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 110 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE RADAR HAS BEEN PLACED BACK INTO "CLEAR AIR MODE" AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THIS WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK, MAYBE EVEN TWO.
IN THE NEAR TERM, HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'D CALL AN
INSIDE SLIDER, BUT WITHOUT THE LARGER FIRE WEATHER RISKS. THIS
TIME, IT'S COLD WEATHER THAT IS THE MAIN RISK CONTRIBUTOR. BY THIS
EVENING, WE'LL START TO SEE WINDS VEER TO MORE OF AN E/NE
DIRECTION. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROMOTE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS, BUT
ALSO CLEARING OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER GOING INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO LONG WINTER NIGHTS, THIS PRIMES THE SITUATION FOR
MAXIMUM NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
HAVEN'T REALLY CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. MAIN
DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT WE'VE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE INTERIOR EAST BAY, NORTH BAY VALLEYS, SOUTH BAY, SANTA CRUZ
MTNS, AND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID-30S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WE'VE ISSUED AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR REGIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 20S BY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 110 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMING
SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, TEMPS
WILL BE BACK INTO NORMAL TERRITORY. OTHERWISE WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
A 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SURFACE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WMC-SFO ALSO DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST IS NEAR HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR EXCEPT A PATCH OR TWO OF VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE EAST BAY
AND THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON MT ST
HELENA AND MT UMUNHUM. AMENDED KAPC TAF TO ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) TONIGHT; WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND AMEND TAFS FOR LLWS
AS NEEDED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE EVENING, WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING FRIDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE OUTER WATERS. A
BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ARRIVING AND IS CAUSING A ROUGH
SEA STATE WITH SHOALING NEAR THE COAST, HARBOR ENTRANCES, AND
BARS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 350 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FRIDAY PST.
EXPECT LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 22 FEET, STRONG RIP CURRENTS
AND SNEAKER WAVES FROM COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO COASTAL MONTEREY
COUNTY, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE WHERE A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL INJURY
AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. EXPECT HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS, SNEAKER WAVES, AND BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SHORELINE.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ502-
506-510-512-513-515-528>530.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ514-
516>518.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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