430
FXUS66 KMTR 281913
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1213 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY WITH BENEFICIAL, LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1212 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE 12Z SOUNDING OBSERVED AN 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE OF 14.15
DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (13.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR THE DATE AND TIME. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTEND WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS WEEKEND. STRATUS THAT WAS ADVECTED VIA A
SOUTHERLY SURGE IS BEGINNING TO PULL BACK TO THE COAST WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OF 500
FEET WILL LIKELY UNDERGO FURTHER COMPRESSION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS
TO BECOME NORTHERLY, PROMOTING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1212 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED DYING COLD
FRONT WILL ENCROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. THIS WILL CRACK THE
STORM DOOR OPEN. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL BE FAR REMOVED FROM THE
PARENT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS; THUS, ONLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE ABSENCE OF RAINFALL. A GALE
FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL HEAD TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PULL IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT WILL
OVERTOP STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL ALLOW IT TO CUT THROUGH
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH, RENEWING OUR CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
BENEFICIAL, LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTH BAY AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
BAYSHORE AND PACIFIC COAST. INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN MAY GET
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT, OTHERWISE THE
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY. TO PUT THE MONTH OF MARCH'S PRECIPITATION
INTO CONTEXT WE'LL USE SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN AS AN EXAMPLE. IT HAS
NOT RAINED THERE SINCE MARCH 2ND. IF IT RAINS ON TUESDAY, IT'LL TIE
1923 FOR THE LONGEST DRY STRETCH IN MARCH. 1923 IS THE DRIEST MARCH
ON RECORD WITH 0.03", 2026 IS THE SECOND DRIEST ON RECORD SO FAR
WITH 0.06". SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY, REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AROUND 500 FEET IN DEPTH RESULTED IN
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH KHAF REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS SINCE
ABOUT 12Z. THIS ALSO RESULTED IN BRIEF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
KSNS AND KMRY AROUND THE SAME TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KSTS WHERE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIFR/IFR TO RETURN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH AN
INCREASE OF ONSHORE WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AT KMRY AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KSNS. HOWEVER, LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW
LONG THEY WILL PERSIST AS THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO COMPRESS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
GUSTS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNS
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
BUILD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 717 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 28TH AND MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 28TH MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 85 IN 1923 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 81 IN 2018 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 91 IN 1923 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2015 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 81 IN 1969 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 82 IN 2015 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 1986 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 77 IN 2018 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 81 IN 2018 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 79 IN 1968 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2015 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 84 IN 1923 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 84 IN 2004 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...SARMENT
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