493
FXUS66 KMTR 270013
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
513 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TODAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90'S ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR, 70'S AND 80'S AROUND THE SOUTH BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
AND UPPER 50'S TO 60'S NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT,
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND COASTAL DRIZZLE TO
IMPACT THE REGION AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40'S ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR SPOTS WITH 50'S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
70S TO 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND 60S TO 70S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT
850MB AND 700MB WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND IN AREAS WHERE UPSLOPE ASCENT IS
FAVORED. BOTH THE NBM AND THE HRRR PICK UP ON LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. THE NBM IS SHOWING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AND BAY SHORELINE WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY. IN GENERAL,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY BEGINNING MONDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO HOW FAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING
WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHERE EXACTLY THE
RIDGE WILL SET UP. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DEPENDING
ON IF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE WEST COAST VS
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF THE COAST. REGARDLESS, IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE
CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK BOTH IN SUPPORT OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL FILL OVER
THE MONTEREY BAY AND SF BAY TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS
REDUCE. CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT, AFFECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME POCKETS OF MIST AND FOG FORMING IN
AREAS WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS. CIGS ERODE IN THE MORE INLAND AREAS
IN THE MID MORNING, WHILE THE MONTEREY BAY SEES CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE SF BAY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...BREEZY WINDS REDUCE IN THE EVENING AS IFR CIGS
ARRIVE. EXPECT THESE CIGS AND MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO, WITH SOME CHANCES OF SPOTTY
IFR-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS AND MIST PUSH INLAND THIS
EVENING AND LAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING, AND ERODING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE. CIGS MOVE INLAND AGAIN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, FILLING OVER MRY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2024
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
REDUCING. EXPECT SOME HAZARDOUS GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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