700
FXUS66 KMTR 301746
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1046 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, THEN CLIMB SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY INTO BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY END OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS REACHED WELL INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, YET
STILL EXPECTING THEM TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MIDDLE 60S IN NORTHWEST FACING COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE INTERIOR
WARMS INTO THE LOW-TO-UPPER 70S. THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS HAVE A
GREATER THAN 60% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80 DEG F, SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR EAST BAY (BYRON AND
BRENTWOOD TO NAME A FEW). KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND
ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND LESS SO INTO THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER WITH WEAK PROGRESSIVE RIDGING ALOFT OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING PRIMARILY ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL HELP LIFT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS RETURNED AND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE MARINE
LAYER LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREA WIDE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILL BACK IN LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS
OUR LATITUDE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET, TEMPERATURES SIMILAR ON
A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY DIURNAL WIND FLUCTUATIONS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PATTERN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE WELL
TO OUR NORTH ATTM, THE PATTERN WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
STRATUS IS GRADUALLY RETREATING THIS MORNING, WITH INTERIOR EAST AND
SOUTH BAY VALLEYS CLEARED OUT. ALONG THE COAST, IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST VALLEYS, IFR TO MVFR CIGS
GENERALLY PREVAIL. LOOK FOR THESE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO MIX OUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
LEAVING US VFR CONDITIONS. QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE IF THE STRATUS RETURNS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
COAST AND PERHAPS IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. OPTED TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS FOR THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS RATHER THAN
FULLY SOCKING THEM IN. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD ERODE BY
MID MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BANK OF STRATUS
PARKED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RANGE RING, WHILE SKIES OVER
THE TERMINAL REMAIN VFR. WE'RE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO FORM JUST BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE, OPTED TO HINT AT THE LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN
DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS, LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 12-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, FALLING TO
10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 5-8Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE STRATUS AROUND MONTEREY BAY IS THE MOST
FASCINATING AS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVEN'T REALLY SOWN ANY
IMPROVEMENT. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL, MAKING THE FORECAST
TRICKY. OPTED TO BE SLIGHTLY OPTIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST, HAVING
CIGS LIFT TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF STINT OF VFR
CONDITIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS THE CHANCE WE COULD REMAIN
SOCKED IN ALL DAY THOUGH CIGS COULD LIFT TO MVFR HEIGHTS FOR KMRY
AND KSNS. REGARDLESS IF THIS HAPPENS OR NOT, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TONIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM NOW
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OFFSHORE.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS,
AND THE COASTAL JETS TO THE SOUTH OF POINT ARENA AND ALONG THE BIG
SUR COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE AND BECOME ROUGH LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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