336
FXUS66 KMTR 021353
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
653 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
- SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WHILE THERE IS PATCHY FOG STILL BEING REPORTED AROUND THE REGION
DENSE FOG IS NOT. LOWER END VSBY THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 MILES. WHY NOT DENSE FOG? LIKELY TIED TO FULL JUNE GLOOM
MODE. EARLY FRAMES FROM THE VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC
MARINE LAYER/STRATUS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND INLAND VALLEYS.
PROFILES NEAR BODEGA BAY AND ACARS SOUNDINGS WITH VAPOR TRACES
SHOWS THE DEPTH AROUND THE 1300-1600 FT RANGE. THE DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER HAS A HARDER TIME SUPPORTING DENSE FOG. DRIZZLE
AND/OR MIST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
WHAT ABOUT SEEING THE SUN TODAY? MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE ROLLING BACK TO THE COAST.
EXPECT INLAND SUNSHINE, BUT COASTAL AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE THE
SUN. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1204 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
EXPECTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY AND
BIG SUR COASTLINE, SIMILAR TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH A MORE ROBUST MARINE LAYER GETTING SOME ASSISTANCE
PUSHING INLAND FROM A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH TOWARD SOCAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND TODAY.
MEANWHILE, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR NORTH, LEAVES
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST UNDER UNORGANIZED H30 JET FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN MONDAYS HIGHS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR NORTH BAY
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SEE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THERMAL BELTING,
WHILE SIMILARLY TO THE FAR SOUTH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA
LUCIAS IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY THE UPPER LOW HELPS PROMOTE A
WEAK FETCH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THERMAL BELTING, AN INTERESTING
PATTERN WITH H85 TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID-50S FOR LOWER LYING AREAS BOTH NEAR THE COAST
AND INLAND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1204 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN
DAILY TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUT
LATITUDE, ARRIVING IN EARNEST LATER FRIDAY, AND LOWERING OUR
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGHING PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST
PAST THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST, HOWEVER THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY, BUT POCKETS OF COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY BE A
NUISANCE UP AND DOWN OUR PACIFIC COASTLINE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH STRATUS
RAPIDLY EXPANDING. APC, LVK, AND SFO REMAIN VFR; HOWEVER, STRATUS IS
ONLY 5-10 MILES FROM THESE TERMINALS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
APC AND SFO BECOMING IFR WITH LVK LIKELY TO BE SAVED BY TERRAIN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN WIND OVER
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE TOO MUCH FOR THE
MARINE LAYER BY MIXING THINGS UP. AS A RESULT, ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SUB-VFR CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT WITH STRATUS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE AND FAVOR COASTAL/BAYSHORE
LOCATIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRATUS
SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA BAYSHORE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE TERMINAL GOING IFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY
17Z. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON A CEILING RETURNING
TONIGHT; HOWEVER, FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STRATUS SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE EAST BAY
HILLS AND STRATUS SPREADING NORTH FROM MOFFETT FIELD WILL IMPACT THE
SAN MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AS EARLY AS 15Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY LIFR AND CALM AT BOTH TERMINALS.
FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTERMITTENTLY
OVERNIGHT; THEREFORE, FOG REMAINS IN A TEMPO LINE FROM 12Z-16Z. A
REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IS THAT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING. BRIEF CLEARING
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON; WITH STRATUS STICKING CLOSE TO THE
COAST, AN EARLY RETURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW TO BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGIONS.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO
BECOME ROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SF BAY
N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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