497
FXUS66 KMTR 152332
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
332 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST MONDAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CENTRAL COAST
MTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OFF THE NORCAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE "BUSINESS" SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN, HEAVY SHOWERS, AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OVER THE WATERS, AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS SHOWS LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND A 0.10-0.50 COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO
1.00 INCH NORTH BAY COAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN GUSTING 25-35
MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 50-60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
POINT REYES AND N BAY INTERIOR MTS.
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL GET REAL INTERESTING AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE CLEAR.
YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THE OFFSHORE LOW GETTING A BOOST FROM SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES. WELL, TODAY'S CAMS SHOW THE CYCLOGENESIS
REALLY TAPPING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL JET. TODAY'S GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CYCLONIC CURVED JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
CURVED JET WILL TAKE AIM AT THE CENTRAL COAST. SOME GUIDANCE PUTS
THE FOCUS MORE NORTHWARD, BUT MOST KEEP IT CLOSER TO MONTEREY
BAY. THIS SET UP IS A PRIME EXAMPLE TO FOSTER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS.
NOT A "BOMB", BUT RAPID NONETHELESS. LATEST HRRR/HREF/WRF MODELS
DROP THE SURFACE LOW TO 995-ISH MB. THE NEWLY DEEPENED LOW WILL
DRIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FOLLOWING THE PATH OF THE JET MAX
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RAPID DEEPENING WILL
FACILITATE VERY STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL FOR
TSTORMS. FOR THE WIND, DIDN'T GO ALL IN AS TIME/STRENGTH DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT FELT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADV WILL STILL BE WINDY, SIMILAR TO
TODAY. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SPC STILL HAS THE CENTRAL COAST IN A
MARGINAL RISK. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, JET
DYNAMICS, AND COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN SOME WEAK SHEAR WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY ROTATING CELLS. SPEAKING OF COLDER AIR ALOFT, THE AIR MASS
WILL COOL BEHIND THE LOW DROPPING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION TO
LESS THAN 5K. THEREFORE, SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND GABILAN RANGES. ISSUED A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR AREA ABOVE 3K FEET BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 240 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NE WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY
ARRIVES FROM THE N MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAYBE A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL EASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP WITH A THIRD SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. LASTEST GUIDANCE FROM OUR HYDRO PARTNERS KEEPS OUR MAINSTEM
RIVERS IN CHECK WITH LESS THAN 10% FOR FLOODING, BUT URBAN/SMALL
STREAM ISSUES WILL LIKELY BUILD THROUGH OUT THE WEEK AS MORE RAIN
PILES UP. RAINFALL TOTALS TUE/WED: 0.50-1.0 INCHES MOST AREAS AND
1.0-2.5 INCHES SANTA CRUZ MTS/SANTA LUCIA MTS. MORE RAIN
THURS/SAT: MOST AREAS 0.25-0.75 INCHES AND LOCALLY 1.0-1.5 INCHES
SANTA CRUZ MTS/SANTA LUCIA MTS. THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE WINTER WX ADV WILL ACCUMULATE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME TUE/WED. ESPECIALLY THE MTS ABOVE BIG SUR WITH 20
INCHES WITH IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE THE N AND E BAY
AREAN'T IN THE WINTER WX ADV AT THE MOMENT THEY'LL LIKELY SEE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THE LOWERING TREND OF SNOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SANTA
CRUZ/SANTA CLARA COUNTY LINE ABOVE 2000 FEET. NOT BUYING OFF ON IT
JUST YET, BUT FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE SOME GUIDANCE REALLY
DROPS SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE N BAY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW
WET FLAKES BELOW 1500 FEET. STAY TUNED FOR THAT.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP WE'LL BE HOLDING ONTO GUSTY WINDS TOO.
INSTEAD OF BEING FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THEY'LL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT WIND ADV LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUT CONF ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE IT. THE COMBO OF
WIND AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL MAKE FOR POOR CONDITIONS
WITH POTENTIAL VSBY ISSUES AND TREES BURDENED BY SNOW COMING
DOWN.
LASTLY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS DROP IT GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP. THE COMBO OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE SHELTER. A MIXTURE OF COLD WX AND EXTREME
COLD PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 332 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW END VFR WITH MID- TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
COME THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL ABATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY. EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND BEYOND, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE COAST AND HEADING ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND CENTRAL COAST, MAKING THE FORECAST RATHER UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY
FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION, FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, REMAINING STRONG AND BREEZY
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 KT WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES
IN ADDITIONAL TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
VICINITY OF SFO... GENERALLY MVFR-LOW END VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINAL. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
STRONG RAIN BAND APPROACHES THE TERMINAL. WINDS ABATE OVERNIGHT WITH
CYCLOGENESIS MAKING THE FORECAST RATHER UNCERTAIN BEYOND THIS POINT,
BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A SHIFT TO A STRONG AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND
THROUGH MONDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR TO LOW END VFR ACROSS THE REGION AND
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT SNS, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN RAIN BAND
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR MONTEREY BAY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MAKES THE TAF FORECAST UNCERTAIN BEYOND AROUND 15Z, WITH A
GENERAL SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY WIND WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
A BAND OF INTENSE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS WITH BUILDING SOUTHERLY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS IS THE START OF MULTIPLE
STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL ABATE TONIGHT BUT
REBUILD INTO A STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZE ON MONDAY. STRONGER WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A HIGH WESTERLY SWELL
ARRIVES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 556 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO AT 9:34 AM
SUNDAY, 10:16 AM MONDAY, AND 10:58 AM TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ516>518-528-
530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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