478  
FXUS66 KMTR 180423  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
923 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 132 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY  
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE BAY  
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE NORTH  
BAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 855 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH ONGOING LIGHT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR EAST BAY, SOUTH BAY  
AND CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON,  
MOVES INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE BY  
SUNRISE, ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FROSTY  
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY, MONTEREY AND  
SAN BENITO COUNTY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALSO HAVE A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH COOLING  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOVE  
250 J/KG. GREATEST POTENTIAL BEING OVER THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY  
REGIONS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND STRONG GUSTY  
WINDS.  
 
AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OVERNIGHT AND WINDS EASE, TEMPERATURES  
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, THE  
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF  
SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTIES. THUS, A FROST ADVISORY  
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED  
AREAS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA  
FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, INCLUDING CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, AND  
PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING.  
 
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING  
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONCE  
AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION WITH FROST ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED.  
 
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SEE A LOWERING TREND. IT IS  
NOW LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY  
WITH THE COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER PEAKS ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA  
COUNTY PICKING UP AROUND 0.33" WITH 0.05-0.25" IN THE VALLEYS OF THE  
NORTH BAY. SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE UP TO  
0.05" WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC LATE WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE, LESSENING THE NEED FOR FROST  
ADVISORIES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
VFR-MVFR, SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH RECENT WET WEATHER, A  
PATCH OR TWO OF VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER FOG IS  
NOT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS; WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.  
VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST  
WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING  
TONIGHT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 855 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH STRONG  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL, ROUGH SEAS  
AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ506-516>518.  
 
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N  
OF BAY BRIDGE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT  
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO  
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT  
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT  
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RGASS  
LONG TERM....RGASS  
AVIATION...CANEPA  
MARINE...CANEPA  
 
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