373
FXUS66 KMTR 082236
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
236 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
- RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
- WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
THE MAIN COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AS A LINE
OF CUMULUS THAT EXTENDS FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY SOUTHWEST OUT INTO THE
PAC OCEAN. THE INTERESTING FEATURE THOUGH IS THE ATMOSPHERIC BORE
THAT HAS RIPPING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, RUNNING OUT ON TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. AS IT MOVED ACROSS POINT REYES TOWER CAMERA, THE
STRATUS CAME THROUGH WITH A BIT OF DRIZZLE AS WELL. RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS IN THE BAY AREA LOOK TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS BIT OF
MOISTURE, WITH SFO/OAK/SJC ALL SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION, SO YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF HIT OF
STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE BAY AREA AS THIS BORE MOVES IN, THOUGH LIKELY
FIZZLES OUT AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND.
AS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS FRONT, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON, WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MAIN SYNOPTICALLY
FORCED RAIN REGION REMAINING FARTHER NORTHER. IN ADDITION, LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SIMULATED WV IMAGERY FROM SPECIAL WOFS RUNS SHOWS A WEDGE
OF DRY AIR MOVING IN ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME UP IN ORE/WASH. THIS DRY AIR SHOWS UP IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS A WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR FROM H85 TO H7 THAT
WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THIS AREA. ALSO DRYING OUT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE THE LOW LEVELS, WITH FOG LOOKING MUCH LESS CERTAIN
TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. ADDING A LAYER OF COMPLEXITY
TO THE FOG POTENTIAL IS THAT WE WILL HAVE THAT BAND OF MID/UPPER
CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD REALLY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH BAY. OTHER THAN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/UPPER CLOUDS, MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANT
WEATHER DAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER FINALLY MAKES A RETURN.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE GFS HAS FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IN BEING
MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
WITH CLOSED LOWS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H5. THIS INCLUDES 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY JETS AT 925 AND 850 MB THAT WILL CRASH INTO THE BAY AREA
THAT WILL HELP PUSH A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA, WITH A
GOOD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP WITH THIS EVENT, WITH MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS FORECAST TO GET 0.5" TO 0.75" OF RAIN, WITH UP TO 1.5" OF
RAIN IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG SUR REGION. SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING IN COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO TREND DRY AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
OUT AHEAD OF OUR WEEKEND TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEAST PAC. AS FOR THAT WEEKEND TROUGH, THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH WHEN THE FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES, BUT WHETHER
IT ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON (GFS/GEFS) OR SATURDAY NIGHT
(ECMWF/EPS), EVERYTHING ENDS UP IN THE SAME SPOT, A VERY WET END TO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH POPS IN EXCESS OF 80% ALREADY IN PLACE A WEEK
OUT, INDICATIVE OF THIS BEING A FAIRLY PREDICTABLE EVENT. THIS WILL
JUST BE THE START OF A WET PATTERN, WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AS FOR SNOW POTENTIAL,
WE DO SEE FREEZING LEVELS COME DOWN THIS WEEKEND, BUT FROM THE
PERSPECTIVE OF THE MTR AREA, IT'S ONLY THE TOPS OF OUR TALLEST PEAKS
THAT SHOW SOME SNOW POTENTIAL. FREEZING LEVELS LOOK TO TAKE A
FURTHER STEP DOWN NEXT WEEK (WEEK OF 2/16), WHICH IS WHEN MAYBE WE
COULD SEE FREEZING LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO START GETTING INTO THE MTR
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY, SITES ARE EITHER VFR OR
LIFR DUE TO LINGERING FG AND STRATUS IMPACTS FROM THIS MORNING OVER
THE BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS FG AND LOW CIGS QUICKLY LIFT AND SCATTER. WINDS
GENERALLY AOB 5KTS AND VRB DIRECTIONS. A WEAK FROPA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY AROUND 06Z, BRINING MVFR/IFR CIGS
WITH IT AND TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ONLY TERMINAL WITH
CHANCES OF SEEING BRIEF SPRINKLES/VCSH WILL BE STS. COASTAL
TERMINALS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS, HOWEVER MOST SITES WILL
KEEP LIGHT WINDS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVC AOA 10KFT POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE OUT. LOW CHANCES FOR FG/BR IMPACTS DUE TO HIGHER
CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY 10SM VISIBILITY WITH VCFG IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE RUNWAYS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH
20Z, YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 4-6 KFT MSL RETURN AROUND 00-02Z, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
LOWER CLOUDS BASED 1-3 KFT MSL BETWEEN 03-05Z, YIELDING TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 08-10Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. VISIBILITY DURING
THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 5SM, WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP IN
THE AFTERNOON, TURNING LIGHT AND SOUTH AROUND 04Z MON, THEN
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BELOW 600 FT MSL ARE
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM THE APPROACH PATH. VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
MVFR STRATUS RETURNS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THROUGH
08-10Z MONDAY.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS OF 19Z WITH FULL VFR AT BOTH SITES BY
20Z. CLOUD BASES 4-6 KFT RETURN TO KOAK AROUND 23-01Z MON, THEN
TO KSJC AROUND 02-04Z MON, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
03-10Z AT KOAK AND BETWEEN 05-14Z AT KSJC. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER, YIELDING TO VFR PREVAILING MONDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND DIURNAL
DRIVEN WINDS CURRENTLY. TIMES OF SCT-BKN AT 1 TO 2KFT BEGINNING
AROUND 00Z AS THE OFF SHORE STRATUS MOVES INLAND AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FROPA. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOR MRY, AND ~10Z FOR SNS.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER 10Z BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 0859 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
BAYS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TODAY
INTO MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BRINGING RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM....MPG
AVIATION...DELIZIO/WESTERINK
MARINE...CAMDEN
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