688  
FXUS66 KMTR 081236  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
536 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 152 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
- COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER TODAY  
 
- DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING  
 
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR  
THE NORTH BAY, BAY AREA AND EAST BAY  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 152 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS LINGERED OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THE  
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT AND  
WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN CHANGE IN MOTION THIS MORNING WILL  
RESULT IN INLAND TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES COOLER  
THAN YESTERDAY AND UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK  
SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS' PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK, WILL BRING  
AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 152 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST  
PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT  
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY INTO  
EARLY SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND 5% OR LESS FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS IS GOOD WRT THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS POOR CONSENSUS ON  
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL FOR THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS HAVE STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAIN,  
WHILE THE GFS HAS LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN OUR AREA FOR THAT SAME TIME  
FRAME. THE NBM IS CLEARLY LEANING ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN  
SOLUTIONS, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM. THE DIFFERENCE BEING THE  
GFS DEEPENS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FARTHER INLAND, WHILE THE  
ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE A MORE PLAUSIBLE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM  
JUST OFFSHORE AND PUSH IT SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, GIVING IT MORE  
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 536 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
NEARLY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
MORNING. CLOUD COVER LIFTS AND SCATTERS INTO THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON. LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STS, WHICH WILL FAIL TO CLEAR. EXPECT MODERATE  
TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE  
WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PASSING LOW  
CLOUDS AROUND THE SF BAY THROUGH THE MORNING THAT WILL THIN OUT INTO  
THE AFTERNOON AS MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD. THESE WINDS LOOK TO  
WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE NIGHT AS SCATTERED MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS BUILD.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
ERODING AS WINDS INCREASE. CLOUD COVER STRUGGLES TO RETURN INTO THE  
EVENING WHILE WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 536 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS INTO THE LATE WEEK. DRIZZLE  
AND POCKETS OF FOG AFFECT THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH  
OF THURSDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVE TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND LAST INTO LATE FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BUILD  
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES  
ARRIVING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM....JM  
AVIATION...MURDOCK  
MARINE...MURDOCK  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  
 
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