583
FXUS66 KMTR 181138
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
438 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- STEADY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- THE MARINE LAYER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE WITH COASTAL STRATUS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG
MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE HERE TODAY FROM
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE 70S
BAYSIDE TO THE 80S AND 90S WELL INLAND. TONIGHT LOWS WILL COOL TO
THE 50S EXCEPT IN THE 60S IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) ARRIVES WITH THE EVENTUAL NORTHWARD
MOVING REMNANTS OF ELIDA. ELIDA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL STORM ~
1100 MILES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FAR BEFORE REACHING HIGHER LATITUDES. AT THIS TIME MOST
MODEL FORECASTS ARE FORECASTING MINIMAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-MVFR WITH THE 1,200 FOOT DEEP MARINE
LAYER MAKING IT TO ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
BY 16Z AS STRATUS RETREATS TO THE COAST WHERE IT'LL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY. COASTAL TERMINALS, NAMELY HAF AND MRY, MAY HOLD ONTO AN
MVFR CEILING ALL DAY AS A RESULT. PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP WITH
THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BEING THAT ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT, CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF
IFR/MVFR WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO REACH TERMINALS TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY LVK AND SJC. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 16Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF THE MVFR CEILING
TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY IFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE MORNING (SNS) TO EARLY
AFTERNOON (MRY) AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CEILINGS ON THE CUSP OF IFR/MVFR RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND, DIMINISHING TO BECOME MODERATE BY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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