602  
FXUS66 KMTR 171811  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
1111 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 945 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY  
 
- SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 945 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS  
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.  
THAT SAID, KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTION OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO  
COUNTY THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO MONTEREY  
COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,  
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 00Z  
THURSDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.  
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK AND WILL BE UPDATING THE  
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.  
 
RGASS  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED AT 406 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE  
WATERS OF MONTEREY BAY WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL  
10AM ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.  
 
THERMAL BELTS REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A MAJORITY OF SITES ABOVE 1500FT AT  
70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AND RH VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 25%-40%, WITH OAK  
RIDGE THE LOWEST AT 16% AS OF 3AM. AS WE WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THIS RELATIVELY SHORT HEAT WAVE,  
WE'LL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE  
WORKING ITS WAY NORTH FROM SOCAL. VANDENBERG RADAR IS PICKING UP  
AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN WATER MOVING DUE NORTH  
PAST THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND POINT CONCEPTION AT THIS HOUR, WHICH  
MAY BE A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL  
HIRES CAMS SEEMING TO PICK UP ON THE GENERAL ACTIVITY SO FAR. THE  
BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT WORKS NORTH  
TOWARD OUR LATITUDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO  
THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING WE SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MONTEREY  
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND LIGHTNING INITIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY  
MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT WE QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD MORE  
WETTING RAINFALL WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS INDICATING AROUND  
1.40", ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIO  
OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THAT MEAN  
VALUE IS 200% OF NORMAL, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL SEE  
NEAR RECORD PWATS WITH THIS EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED AT 406 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIO MOVE  
INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT  
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING BY LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE SOUTH  
BAY. GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD PWATS, MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-400  
J/KG, MODERATE PVA, AND BULK SHEAR UP TO 30KTS BY EARLY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SANTA LUCIA AND THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WHERE  
TERRAIN COULD ALSO ENHANCE LIFT AT TIMES NEAR THE SURFACE. THE  
PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, CLOUD-TO-  
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS THROUGH  
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY DECLINE AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY  
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE  
REMNANTS OF MARIO SHIFTS INTO NORCAL. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH  
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER WEAK  
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT  
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1111 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COASTAL STRATUS /IFR/  
OTHERWISE IT'S VFR. THE MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET  
TO 1,000 FEET DEEP. INCOMING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HUMIDITY TODAY, TONIGHT  
AND THURSDAY WILL DISRUPT RADIATIVE PROCESSES, LIKELY DISRUPTING THE  
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT IT'S UNKNOWN AS TO WHAT EXTENT. NEED  
TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER (TROPICAL ORIGIN AIR MASS) REACHING  
OUR AREA AND ITS POTENTIAL TO MERGE E.G. WITH 700 MB TO 500 MB CYCLONIC  
FLOW AND WARM AIR/COLD AIR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WHICH MAY RESULT IN  
HYBRID LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT; RARE IN AUG, SEP, BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 12 TO  
22 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, DECREASING TO 5  
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT WITH  
VFR FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
LOW TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY  
MORNING SINCE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LIKELY  
RESULTING IN A DISRUPTION TO THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND FOG, BUT  
TO WHAT EXTENT IS UNKNOWN. 18Z TAFS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IFR, BUT  
IT'S A LOW TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONSHORE  
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT TEMPORARILY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS  
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY  
DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS THAT ARE DEVELOPING  
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY IN THE  
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY AND TOMORROW, POSING THE RISKS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ROUGH  
SEAS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 945 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY  
 
- THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED, BUT DIDN'T COMPLETELY GO  
AWAY FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
 
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING  
DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND AFTERNOON BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. WHILE THE  
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE, ANY  
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS BEFORE WE  
TRANSITION TO WETTING RAINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN  
DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THIS FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE, YET HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF ANY FIRE STARTS WERE TO HAPPEN. THE  
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING GREATLY DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE DEEPENS AND WE TRANSITION  
TO WETTING RAINS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE THREAT  
SHIFTS EAST WE'LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.  
 
RGASS  
 
 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA  
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR  
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT  
THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM....JM  
AVIATION...CANEPA  
MARINE...CANEPA  
 
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