311
FXUS66 KMTR 112048
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
148 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- COOLER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
- COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DUE TO SNEAKER
WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE MIDWEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 147 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST, WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS POPPING UP OVER SOME MOUNTAINS AND
STRATOCU OVER OUR SOUTHERN MARINE FORECAST AREAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRYER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE, THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS, INCLUDING THE NBM,
STILL HINT AT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE DRY AIR
MIGHT KEEP IT AS VIRGA OR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INSTEAD. OUTSIDE OF
THOSE PRECIP CHANCES, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 147 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES BARREL TOWARDS NV AND UT LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SOME LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE BUILDING AND WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KICK OFF THE MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER
WY/CO WITH BROAD TROUGHING INFLUENCING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
TROUGH BECOMES A BIT MORE LONGWAVE LIKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE FLOW WITH WARMER
WEATHER. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS LED TO MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT A
FEW CIGS AT HAF,MRY,SNS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST LEADING
TO VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FRESH
BREEZES TO GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF PIGEON POINT. THE STRONG WINDS
AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN A CONFUSED SEA
STATE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1042 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING STILL INDICATED SOME SOLID SWELL
ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, STILL SEEING AN ENERGETIC
THE SURF ZONE. GIVE THE OBSERVED HEIGHT AND PERIOD ISOLATED
BREAKING WAVES 18-20 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT FAVORED BREAK POINTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE
LARGE TIDAL SWINGS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COASTAL EROSION AS WATER
AND WAVES ARE BROUGHT FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
DURING HIGH TIDE. REMAIN OFF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER
WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE AS WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE SHORELINE
WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA. REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MM
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-508-529-
530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ506.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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