412
FXUS66 KMTR 072227 CCA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
227 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FROM SWELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES.
- PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
- 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS 0.2-0.5"
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
AS OF 1:15 PM, VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS THIN HIGH CLOUDS
DISPERSED THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS AND MILDLY HAZY SKIES. AS
YESTERDAY'S WEAK UPPER LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD, 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, MAKING THE MARINE LAYER
SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER (AROUND 600-800 FEET DEEP) THAN THIS MORNING.
COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET, SLOWLY MOVING INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIN OUT, COOLING IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE EVEN
BEFORE THE MARINE STRATUS REACHES INTO INLAND AREAS. WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND MIST ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE BAY
AREA WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. COASTAL STATUS IS LESS LIKELY IN THE MONTEREY
BAY AS CLOUDS COULD BE SHADOWED BY THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE SLOW. RADIATION FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP IN
THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS PARTIALLY
CLEAR OUT TO THE COAST LATE IN THE MORNING YIELDING TO BRIEFLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE EAST BAY AND SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND DEEPER CLOUDS SURGE INTO THE BAY AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES OVERTAKE THE BAY AREA BY
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT (10-20%) CHANCE FOR SPOTTY DRIZZLE THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR THIS SYSTEM, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY: 20-40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTH BAY
US-101 CORRIDOR INTO SANTA ROSA. FOR TOTALS ABOVE 0.10", AROUND A
10% CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN MARIN HILLS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FARTHER NORTHWARD, UP TO 50% CHANCE FOR THE HILLS NORTH OF THE
RUSSIAN RIVER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER MONDAY, WITH THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CLOSING IN ON A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE RAINFALL RANGE AROUND 0.2-0.5" FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY
CITIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE LOCALLY IN
THE COASTAL SLOPES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE BRIEFLY QUIET AND LESS CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS RETURNING SATURDAY AND
INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT ON A COLDER AND DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO BRING ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. THE NBM BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
THOUGH CURRENT 850MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO DELIVER A
DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE TALLEST PEAKS IN MONTEREY COUNTY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS BEING A
BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN FORECAST OVER THE SF BAY SO DID START TO
DELAY THE DEMISE OF THE STRATUS AT THE BAY TERMINALS. RAP
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW US MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON SO DO THINK WE
LOOSE THE STRATUS AT THE BAY TERMINALS, BUT IT'S JUST GOING TO
TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN WE WERE FORECASTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE RAP SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT HIGHLIGHT THE MARINE LAYER SLAMMING BACK INTO THE BAY
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BESIDES THE MARINE LAYER, WE'LL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES WITH CALM WINDS, SO MORE RADIATIONAL FOG LOOKS TO BE A
POTENTIAL PROBLEM AGAIN AS WELL FOR SITES LIKE SNS/LVK/STS. THE
RAP DOESN'T REALLY SHOW THE MARINE LAYER MOVING BACK IN UNTIL 15Z
SUNDAY, SO DID DELAY A LITTLE THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS. ONCE IT
COMES BACK THOUGH, THAT MARINE LAYER MAY BE WITH US FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING THE NORTH BAY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT CLEAR TO VFR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR TO VLIFR RETURNING
AGAIN TONIGHT/SUNDAY TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEY AREAS AND STS/APC TAF
SITES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS REDUCE TO MVFR BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 05-06Z
SUNDAY, GOING DOWN TO IFR/LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS (1/2-1/4SM
VISIBILITY WITH CIGS DOWN TO 100-200FT) AROUND 09-10Z. THE SEVERE
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND END OF THE
TAF PERIOD IN THE NORTH BAY, SIMILAR TO TODAY'S CONDITIONS, THOUGH
TIMING/INTENSITY WILL NEED FURTHER REFINING IN FUTURE UPDATES. SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOWEST 1000FT.
VICINITY OF SFO...WITH A WESTERLY WIND, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE FIELD FIRST, BUT WILL TAKE LONGER
TO CLEAR THE STRATUS OUT IN THE BAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
STRATUS WILL LOOK LIKE SUNDAY, THOUGH HRRR CIG FORECASTS ARE
SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WITH LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY
ONCE AGAIN, IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SFO MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE STRATUS,
BUT WILL TAKE CLOSER TO 21Z FOR THE BRIDGE APPROACHES TO CLEAR OUT
TODAY.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...SJC IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK
AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT NEXT, WITH OAK TAKING THE LONGEST TO
LOSE THE FOG. WE'RE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG/BAY
STRATUS ON SUNDAY, THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF SJC
DRIER THAN OAK AND SFO, SO PERHAPS SJC MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE BETTER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THAN ITS NEIGHBORING BAY AIRPORTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS/FOG LIFTED EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DENSE
FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT; CONFIDENCE
IN WHETHER IFR VS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, AND
ONSET/CESSATION TIMING AND HOW LONG FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS MIGHT
PREVAIL IS LOWER HERE, SO LEFT AT TEMPO FOR NOW. PREVAILING
CONDITION TIMING/INTENSITY WILL BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT MRY, BUT THE SEA BREEZE
WILL KEEP 10-15 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT STS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE FAR OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. SEAS MAINLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE SLIGHTLY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 205 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AT ALL PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES, THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY. WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES 17 TO 22 FEET.
REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...WESTERINK
LONG TERM....WESTERINK
AVIATION...MPG/PLC
MARINE...DELIZIO
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