256
FXUS66 KMTR 231209
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
- DRY AND MILD THIS WEEK WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A DRIER OUTCOME FOR THE STORM AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SONOMA COUNTY
VALLEYS AND WESTERN MARIN COUNTY, HUGGING THE COAST OF SAN FRANCISCO
AND SAN MATEO COUNTIES, AND ISOLATED PATCHES DEVELOPING IN THE
BERKELEY-RICHMOND AREA, THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY PENINSULA. DATA FROM THE PROFILER AT BODEGA BAY AND CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF
AROUND 500-1000 FEET. THE FORECAST UPDATE CALLS FOR THE STRATUS
LAYER TO EXPAND ACROSS NAPA VALLEY, THE BAY AREA, THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY, AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT, BEFORE RETREATING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE DAY.
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL (WEST-TO-EAST) TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC AND BAYSIDE COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WILL LIE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. A
GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY STRONG, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR AT
MOST ALONG FAVORED COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON MONDAY, BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT BRINGS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
(THURSDAY), COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AND RAISING TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES. THE WARMEST SPOTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS (THINK THE
MORGAN HILL-GILROY REGION AND THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY) MIGHT
TOUCH THE LOWER 70S ON THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BREAKS DOWN, AND ONE AMPLIFIES
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS A RESULT, COLD ARCTIC AIR
DESCENDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ENSEMBLE
MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION
FOR OUR REGION, AS THE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
POTENTIALLY GIVES US A SOLUTION CLOSER TO AN INSIDE SLIDER THAN A
BIG RAINMAKER. IF THIS WERE THE CASE, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS AT AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. AS
ALWAYS, FOLLOW FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES LOCALLY
AND, FOR THOSE PLANNING SOME THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL, ACROSS THE
NATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 341 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VIS
PERSISTING UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. A MESO LOW/OTTER EDDY OVER
THE BAY AREA HAS LED TO LOW STRATUS FILLING IN ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH BAY WITH KSJC EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING OUT BY LATE
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MESO LOW/OTTER EDDY ROTATING AROUND THE INNER
BAY HAS KEPT KSFO VFR ALL NIGHT THUS FAR. THE MESO LOW/OTTER EDDY
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE WHICH MAY RESULT
IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON AND A RETURN OF RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO SFO, A LOCALIZED MESO
LOW/OTTER EDDY HAS RESULTED IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT KMRY CEILINGS HOVER
AROUND MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KSNS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS THEN GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES. WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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