170
FXUS66 KMTR 030548
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
948 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES
- 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORING THE NORTH BAY AND THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL RETURN TOWARD NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
ON SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ATTM THE NORTH BAY
WOULD SEE THE MOST RAINFALL IN THE COASTAL RANGES, HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 156 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS WINDING DOWN AS HIGH TIDE
HAS COME AND NOW PAST. THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FROM THE PREVIOUS AD
UPDATE IS THAT THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PACIFIC BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM, TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER,
PUTTING MOST AREAS ABOVE THEIR NORMAL SEASONAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 156 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE EXACTLY IT'LL BE PLACED. THIS COULD SPREAD SOME MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTH FOR US, LIKELY LEADING TO AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE
PACNW. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH BAY. SHOULD THE CLUSTERS
PAN OUT, HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE ADVANCES
TOWARDS THE PACNW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BUMPED
UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE, TO ABOUT 30-40% FOR THE NORTH
BAY REGION AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. INTERIOR AREAS,
LIKE SOUTH AND EAST BAY ARE CLOSER TO THE 30-35% RANGE AND FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST CHANCES ARE LOWER ABOUT 15-35%. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS, AND SOME CLOUD COVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME REMAIN LIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS SEEING VICINITY
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 942 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH
BAY TERMINALS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING MAY BRING A RETURN OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW ATTM FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
ROUGH SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE SEAS AND GENTLE NORTHERLY
BREEZES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF ROUGH SEAS ON
FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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