718
FXUS66 KMTR 140432
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
932 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- GUSTIER, DRY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE VACA RANGE AND ALTAMONT
PASS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BLANKETED THE BAY ARE AND CENTRAL COAST TO
ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE A DRY COLD FRONT LAST
NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS ONLY REACHED THE 60S AND
70S...A FEW 80S FAR INTERIOR. THOSE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. IN OTHER WORDS,
"COOL" DAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. IT WAS ALSO A BREEZY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BEING PRETTY COMMON WITH A FEW 40-50
MPH IN THE WINDIER GAPS/PASSES.
NOTEWORTHY WEATHER ITEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TWO FOLD AS NOTED
BELOW: PATCHY STRATUS AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW. ALREADY
STARTED TO SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOP AROUND MONTEREY
PENINSULA AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
ONSHORE FLOW IS ALSO IS BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE. NOT
EXPECTING TO BE A BIG OFFSHORE PUSH, BUT OFFSHORE NONETHELESS.
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1056 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PNW AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AT A DEPTH OF APPROXIMATELY 1500 FT
BUT DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PREVENTED STRATUS FROM REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT.
THE DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LARGELY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PATCHY STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WONDERING
WHY? BUOYS ARE REPORTING WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES THAN AIR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE IT. THIS INDICATES AN UPWARDS TRANSFER OF
HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN TO THE AIR, RESULTING IN A WARMING AND
SATURATING LAYER OF AIR WHERE STRATUS IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. ANY
COASTAL STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PATCHIER WITH THE SAN
MATEO COASTLINE AND COASTAL MONTEREY PENINSULA THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN TONIGHT'S STRATUS FORECAST IS THE WIND. WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE BREEZY AND ONSHORE WITH THE SFO-WMC
GRADIENT FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND +9 TO +10 MB TODAY. THIS LARGELY
CORRELATES TO WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS. BY TONIGHT THE WIND SETUP
CHANGES FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER BUT TWO LOCATIONS, THE HIGHEST RIDGELINES OF THE VACA
MOUNTAINS AND THE ALTAMONT PASS, WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTIER OFFSHORE
WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE REGION SLIGHTLY DRIER OVERNIGHT WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REDEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE STRONGER OFFSHORE.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SEE A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S TO 70S. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS (FAR
INTERIOR EAST BAY AND INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST) WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO POTENTIALLY THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE
DAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1056 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY SEASONAL ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 60S ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAKING AROUND 12 C DURING THE DAY. THAT IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE 10TH
AND 25TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE MEDIAN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE ~17 C. THE NBM WAS RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER
MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS STARTED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES, COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A REASONABLE LOWER
END TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WED/THURS WOULD BE INTERIOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE THE HIGHER END FORECAST (THE CURRENT
FORECAST) KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
SAW THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED/THURS TO DECREASE BY A
FEW MORE DEGREES (SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END FORECAST). THE
CAVEAT TO THIS BEING TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARMER IF THE TROUGH/COLD
AIR MASS SLOWS DOWN AND ARRIVES LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
REGARDLESS, THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MOST EVIDENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THE
MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN ENOUGH THAT STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MID TO LATE WEEK. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES, THE COAST, AND ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGELINES. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA RANGE HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN
BUT CHANCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION (<5%) WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 926 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CURRENTLY VFR. MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA
COAST AND MONTEREY PENINSULA WILL IMPACT HAF, MRY, AND SNS AT
LEAST INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH MID-TO-LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
AND DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON VFR AND DIURNAL WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR AND CALM AT MRY AND VFR
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY IMPACTED
MRY AND IS LINGERING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS; AS
SUCH, EXPECT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE MORNING. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES DIMINISH WITH THAT TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ABATING WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 422 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026
PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. 925 MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER OVER THE TIMBER AND PLASKETT FIRES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A LIGHT TO GENTLE
OFFSHORE BREEZE (WITH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE GUSTS) IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH, AREAS ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER OFTEN EXPERIENCE NOCTURNAL DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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