742
FXUS66 KMTR 060601
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1001 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FROM SWELLS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES.
- 10% (SAN JOSE) TO 40% (NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY) CHANCE OF RAIN
DEVELOPING NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST
RAIN CHANCES COME WEDNESDAY (50%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
TODAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SALINAS
AIRPORT BROKE A DAILY RECORD HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 81 DEGREES...
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 80 DEGREES SET IN 2018. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
WATCHING A STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN SAN
DIEGO'S 00Z OBSERVATION AS WELL AS IN NUMEROUS ACARS OBSERVATIONS IN
THE LOS ANGELES METRO. AS OF 9PM PST, THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN VIA
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS PUSHING INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL NOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SO FAR, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DRY LOW LEVELS NOTED IN THE 00Z KOAK SOUNDING MAY
COMBINE WITH VIRGA AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO RESULT IN SUDDEN GUSTY
OUTFLOWS AT TIMES.
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 9 PM ON SATURDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS,
SEE THE BEACHES SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING SHED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND DRIFT TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA, REMAINING OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA. IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
VERY MILD AND SUNNY EARLY FEBRUARY DAY. THE RIDGE HAS STARTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THAT SALINAS AND MONTEREY HAVE
GOTTEN CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY, WHILE LOCATIONS UP
AROUND THE BAY ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. AS THE
UPPER LOW PUSHES TOWARD THE CA COAST TONIGHT, WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHERN CAL PUSH NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW GETS CLOSER, WE'LL ADD SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE MIX AS
WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE CLOUDS IS WE'RE
ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS FOG IN THE VALLEYS THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS, THOUGH IF WE END UP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
ANTICIPATED, WE STILL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WE'VE
HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE VALLEY FOG,
SO LESS CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MORE FOG. DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW GETS TO THE WEST OF LA, SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CAL WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME 15ISH POPS LATER ON
FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BIG SUR, THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS WITH A SHALLOW (LESS THAN
1K FEET) NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER, SO WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MTR AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
BIGGEST THING ABOUT THE LONG TERM IS A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AS PERSISTENT RIDGING GETS REPLACED BY A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST BIT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOWS UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH THIS MOISTURE FEED WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD
NORTHERN CAL AND OREGON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND
LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING AFTER SUNSET
ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40%) IN THE NORTH END OF
SONOMA COUNTY. AS THIS MOISTURE FEED PUSHES SOUTH, SO WE SEE
DWINDLING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN THE
BAY AREA. THE BIGGER ISSUE TO WATCH WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WOULD BE FOR CLOUD/STRATUS POTENTIAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOW UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
(50% ALONG THE COAST). THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A POSITIVELY TILTED
H5 TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CA AND THE EASTERN PAC. EPS
PRECIPITATION MATRIX AT SFO SHOWS ABOUT 60% OF ITS MEMBERS SHOWING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MOST
MEMBERS THAT SHOW QPF HAVE IT UNDER 0.25", SO WE'RE NOT LOOKING
AT A HIGH IMPACT RAIN EVENT, THOUGH SOMETHING THAT MAY SEND YOU
REACHING FOR THE WINDSHIELD WIPERS. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL BE THE COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES AS WE SEE OUR HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S WE'VE ENJOYED THE PAST FEW DAYS GET REPLACED
BY A MORE TYPICAL 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS, EXCEPT LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A LOW CHANCE OF FOG STILL EXISTS
NEAR KSTS/KAPC. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANY LIGHT, PASSING
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPTICK OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF COASTAL STRATUS/MIST OVERNIGHT,
BUT EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. POTENTIAL FOR CEILING/VIS IMPACTS
FROM STRATUS/MIST WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS ONSHORE WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR
HZ/BR FORMING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES
FOR HZ/BR FORMING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING NEAR
KOAK. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES DURING THIS TIME. HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, BECOMING NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FRIDAY AS A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE LATE WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 918 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
AM PST FRIDAY AT ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES, THEN UPGRADING TO A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET, INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 FEET
ON FRIDAY.
REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN!
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM
SITES FOR FEBRUARY 5TH.
LOCATION FEB 5TH RECORD HIGH
SANTA ROSA 80 IN 2011
SAN RAFAEL 79 IN 2011
KENTFIELD 78 IN 2011
NAPA 79 IN 2011
RICHMOND 81 IN 2018
LIVERMORE 78 IN 2018
SAN FRANCISCO 77 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 73 IN 2011
REDWOOD CITY 77 IN 2018
HALF MOON BAY 76 IN 2018
OAKLAND MUSEUM 77 IN 2011
SAN JOSE 79 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 80 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM....MPG
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...DIALH
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page