148
FXUS66 KMTR 051903
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1203 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- COOLING TREND ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL AVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR SF BAY AND THE SANTA CRUZ COASTAL PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY REGION, AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY ONSHORE PATTERN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE
COAST, THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES, AND ALONG THE RIDGELINES. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH BAY COAST AND THROUGH THE ALTAMONT
PASS COULD REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. OVERNIGHT, SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA, THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY.
FOR SATURDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL DIP
RATHER NOTICEABLY AS THE INLAND VALLEYS DROP TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S, WHILE THE BAYS SEES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60 TO THE
LOWER 70S AND THE PACIFIC COAST DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTIER AS THE
TROUGH ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL LOW REINFORCES THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP IN
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
INLAND VALLEYS AND THE 60S CLOSE TO THE BAYS. SOME RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES FOR RAIN TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 TO 40%
ALONG THE COAST, ARRIVING LATE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE, BUT EVEN IN THE REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO FROM THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SONOMA COAST TOP OUT AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF
AN INCH, WITH TOTALS ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH GENERALLY CONFINED
TO SONOMA COUNTY, WESTERN MARIN COUNTY AND THE MARIN COASTAL
RANGES, AND THE COAST OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA.
THE TROUGHING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT
HINTS AT RIDGING RETURNING TO THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TOWARDS AND BEYOND THE END OF THE
7- DAY OUTLOOK. EXTENDED OUTLOOKS SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT (50-60%
PROBABILITY) FOR THE JUNE 12-18 PERIOD; FOR CONTEXT, DURING THIS
PERIOD, THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO IS AROUND 67 DEGREES, FOR SANTA ROSA AROUND 80 DEGREES,
FOR SAN JOSE AROUND 79 DEGREES, FOR HALF MOON BAY AROUND 64
DEGREES, FOR LIVERMORE AROUND 83 DEGREES, AND FOR SALINAS AROUND
70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CEILINGS (CLEAR SKIES), MVFR DUE TO 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS
A RESULT OF HAZE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND IS LIKELY TO MIX
OUT THE HAZY CONDITIONS. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, YET MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT HAZE NEAR
COASTAL SITES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE (30%) CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS
REACHING 35 KNOTS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
EASING A BIT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 40%-50% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 35
KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CEILINGS (CLEAR SKIES), MVFR DUE TO
3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT OF HAZE AT KSNS. ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS AROUND A 20%-30% PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR TODAY,
EXPANDING TO ALL OF THE INNER WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT,
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS
FOR THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS AND MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 351 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY FOR
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 17-18
SECONDS AT 3 FEET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE
SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS,
JETTIES, AND BEACHES. STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER,
SURF AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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