688
FXUS66 KMTR 241805 AAA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1105 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GRADUAL WARMING SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ONCE AGAIN, THE DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER WAS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AS STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED RETREATS TO THE COAST, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST REGIONWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FACING
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST, 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BAYSHORE AND
SANTA CRUZ REGION, 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND MID-TO-
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST.
OVERALL, SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE AS YESTERDAY.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK ON A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND TIMING BUT EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE RUSSIAN RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH BAY. STRATUS SHOULD ALSO BE QUICKER TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE COASTLINE, BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYERS MIXES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY AND REMAIN SO INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXPANSIVE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EPAC HAS US
COMFORTABLY IN THE MIDDLE, WITH STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE'S NO
DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. WE
WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS
FAUSTO DRIFTS NORTHWEST AND MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING GETTING SHIFTED NORTH. SEE BEACHES
SECTION FOR IMPACTS FROM FAUSTO ALONG OUR PACIFIC COASTLINE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OUTSIDE OF HAF, VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL TERMINALS. STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE EVEN ACROSS THE SAN
MATEO PENINSULA AND THERE'S SOME CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LIFT AT
HAF. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED MARINE LAYER AND
THIS INCREASES THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE RETURN
OF STRATUS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT LVK, SJC, AND APC. LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG THE RUSSIAN RIVER
VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AT STS, THOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE SHORTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WITH HAF HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT OAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. IF THE MARINE
LAYER STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP, VFR MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, ONSHORE BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY HAF, APC, AND OAK.
VICINITY OF SFO...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH VFR AND WINDS ELEVATING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. PEAK WIND GUSTS
ARE ADVERTISED TO APPROACH 30 KNOTS, WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO GUST FORECAST OF 32-35 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IS LOW, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT VFR MAY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TAF SET. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC, HOWEVER,
AND THERE'S ENOUGH INDICATION THAT SOME STRATUS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE SAN BRUNO GAP AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY (THOUGH IT MAY BE INTERMITTENT). THE LATEST TAF
SET HAS PUSHED THE ONSET TIME FOR MVFR BACK BY A FEW HOURS.
DEPENDING ON WHEN COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPS, ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS
TO TIMING ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BUT PEAK MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 25
KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS IS HIGHER COMPARED TO SFO. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CURRENTLY WITH A DELAY IN THE RETURN
OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CEILING ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED
BACK AS THERE'S INDICATION THAT COASTAL STRATUS MAY BE SLOWER TO
RE-DEVELOP. THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET TIME OF MVFR
STRATUS AT MRY. WHILE MVFR STRATUS MAY ARRIVE PRIOR TO 07Z, IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE INTERMITTENT. THERE'S AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR
CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT MRY. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
FARTHER EAST DROPS DOWN TO UNDER 50% AT SNS AND AT THIS TIME MVFR, SHOULD
IT TRANSPIRE, IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT
CATEGORY. VFR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN PRIOR TO THE END OF THE CURRENT
VALID TAF SET, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, LARGELY
TYPICAL ONSHORE BREEZES ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12
KNOTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FOCE
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WILL ALSO PREVAIL, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS, EVEN ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF SF AND MONTEREY BAYS.
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 830 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HURRICANE FAUSTO IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
COASTLINE OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS
WEEKEND. AS SUCH, SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVES CAN REACH UP TO 10 FEET
ALONG SOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND BREAK POINTS (LIKE
SANTA CRUZ, PACIFICA, AND PARTS OF STINSON OR OCEAN BEACH). SNEAKER
WAVES CAN HAVE 20+ MINUTES IN BETWEEN THE LARGER SETS (BREAKING
WAVES) WITH SIGNIFICANT "FLAT/CALM LOOKING" TIMES BETWEEN THEM. THIS
CAN POTENTIALLY CATCH BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE
BEING SWEPT INTO THE COLD WATER; HENCE THE NAME "SNEAKER". RIP
CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM
SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH,
AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...BAIN
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