454
FXUS66 KMTR 170049
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
449 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CENTRAL COAST
MTS AND SANTA CLARA HILLS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 140 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MUCH ADVERTISED ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVED TODAY. PRETTY
FASCINATING SYNOPTIC SET UP AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
REGION. THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM SUNDAY MATERIALIZED ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AND THE
FUEL FOR THE SURFACE LOW, IS A JET MAX. GOES WEST DERIVED WIND
SHOWS THE HIGHER WINDS SPEED ALOFT. IT DOES APPEAR THE FAVORED
LEFT EXIT REGION FOR LARGER SCALE ASCENT IS PLACED A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THAT WAS LIKELY A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR FOR THE ROUND OF INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN THE
LOX WFO AREA. REGARDLESS, STILL ENOUGH ASCENT TO ASSIST WITH
CYCLONGENSIS. THE AFTERNOON WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE-
BARREL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INLAND. EARLIER IN THE DAY WE HAD A ROUND OF INTENSE RAIN WITH A
SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING AND NOW ANOTHER BURST OF PRECIP AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. THE COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP LED TO GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN (SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN), LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, MUD/DIRT/ROCK FLOWS ONTO ROADS, AND A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW OVER THE SANTA LUCIA MTS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: THE DOUBLE-BARREL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE INLAND. AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN EASE OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP ONGOING WIND ADV OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND HEAVIEST SOUTH OF THE THE GOLDEN GATE. WE'LL LIKELY
SEE A LULL IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT, BUT WON'T SAY
COMPLETELY DRY. LASTLY, THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HELPED DROP THE SNOW LEVELS. SNOW IS NOW FALLING OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SANTA LUCIA AND S GABILAN RANGE. EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS, AND UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MONDAY SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP, ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WINDS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THE LATEST
TIMING BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE N BAY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING
S AND E TUESDAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT A MESSY COMMUTE FOR TUESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY: 0.5-1.5" MOST AREAS,
1-2" COASTAL MTS, AND LOCALLY UP TO 3" SANTA LUCIAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE FILLING CREEKS/STREAMS FROM MONDAY. AS FOR WINDS,
THEY'LL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. THEY'LL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND GUSTY ACROSS A THE ENTIRE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, UNLIKE THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THAT BEING
SAID, JUST BORDERLINE FOR WIND ADV AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTS 20-40
MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A GENERAL
MENTION FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, KEPT
WINTER WX ADV OVER THE PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. IN FACT,
AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION WENT UP A TAD. DECIDED TO ADD IN THE SANTA
CLARA HILLS FOR A WINTER WX ADV ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT'S A
LOW END EVENT WITH 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY, BUT IMPACTS TO HWY
130 TIPPED THE SCALE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 205 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM TUESDAY WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT. IMPACTS FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AGAIN
(1500FT? N BAY), AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES,
LOWS WEDNESDAY AM WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. WILL LIKELY
NEED A MIX OF COLD WX ADV AND EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS TOO.
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS OPEN AS A THIRD SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED PUSH OF
RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: 0.5-1.0" MOST AREAS, 1-2" COASTAL MTS. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WE'LL HAVE COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE
INTERESTING PART WILL BE MUCH LINGERING PRECIP WILL THERE BE ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR. STILL SEEING SOME RATHER LOW
SNOW LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA. GIVEN LACK OF CONF ON
MOISTURE DON'T THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE THAT HIGH, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NOVELTY FLAKES FOR VERY WET FLAKES BELOW
1000 FT, ESPECIALLY THE N BAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BUT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AS THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DETAILS WILL BE FINE TUNED AS THIS EVENT
NEARS.
THOUGHTS ON HYDRO: WHILE NO SINGLE STORM LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR HYDRO
EVENT ALL OF THESE STORMS PILING ON TOP OF EACH OTHER MAY PUSH
SOME OF THE BIGGER RIVERS INTO ACTION STAGE BY THE WEEKEND. THE
SMALLER/FLASHIER STREAMS HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF HAVE ISSUES.
GIVEN THE FILLING CULVERTS AND CREEKS, ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADV WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH BUILDING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS BECOME LESS
CONSISTENT INTO THE EVENING AND STAY SCATTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS STAY SOUTHERLY AND MODERATE TO BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINS ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING OFFERING MODERATE, TO AT TIMES, INCREASED RAIN RATES LEADING
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE ALONG WITH THE RAIN
RATES WITH GUSTS PEAKING ABOVE 30 KTS FOR MOST SITES. RAIN RATES
REDUCE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE
TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO REDUCE. STORM CHANCES WILL BUILD OVER THE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS MOVING INLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS CONSISTENT INTO THE THE
EVENING, WITH SPOTTY LOWER CLOUDS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS ERODING. THE NEXT LINE OF
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARRIVES INTO THE EARLY MORNING LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN RATES AND MORE CONSISTENT RAIN CHANCES. THE INCREASED
RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS TO
ARRIVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL REDUCE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING AS THEY TURN MORE WESTERLY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO THE
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE BREEZY. WIDESPREAD RAINS RETURN
INT THE MID MORNING WITH BREEZIER AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MONTEREY
BAY, WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 448 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE ARE BRINGING
MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AT 10:58 AM
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY,
RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ516>518-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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