633  
FXUS66 KMTR 180852  
AFDMTR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA  
152 AM PDT TUE MAR 18 2025  
   
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM PDT TUE MAR 18 2025  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
COAST, EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES  
WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH FROST ADVISORIES  
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST INTERIOR. LIGHT RAIN IS  
EXPECTED FOR THE BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING  
MILD TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 151 AM PDT TUE MAR 18 2025  
 
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
SANTA LUCIA RANGE, THE BYPRODUCT OF BAY EFFECT PROCESSES WHERE  
MOISTURE FROM MONTEREY BAY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO  
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SAN  
BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTIES. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS  
RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS, AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE  
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE REGION VARIES FROM MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES OVER THE NORTH BAY, INTO GENERALLY HIGHER ELEVATION STRATUS IN  
THE BAY AREA AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS STRATUS IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT, MIXED OUT BY  
BREEZY WINDS ALOFT. THUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP THROUGH  
SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 AM IN  
THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR, THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, THE SANTA LUCIA  
RANGE, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY  
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
30S, ELSEWHERE, LOWS THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE  
LOWER 40S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG  
THE COAST.  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S  
NEAR THE BAYS, THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, AND  
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 151 AM PDT TUE MAR 18 2025  
 
CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,  
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SAME AS THOSE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A  
NEW FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 2 AM  
TO 9 AM FOR THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR AND THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST.  
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE BAY AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRINGES  
OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING IMPACTFUL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACROSS OUR REGION, BENEFICIAL  
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS OVER THE  
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS, WITH 0.2-0.3" EXPECTED IN THE SONOMA COASTAL  
RANGES AND THE MAYACAMAS, 0.05-0.15" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, UP TO  
0.1" IN THE BAY AREA AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, AND VIRTUALLY  
NOTHING IN THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER RAIN SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UP NORTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS TO THE REGION  
ARE LIMITED TO TRANSITORY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF  
SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES.  
 
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL  
GENERALLY TICK UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INLAND VALLEYS REACHING  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, EXCEPT IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE  
FRINGE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO  
DIP A COUPLE DEGREES, WITH THE VALLEYS REACHING THE UPPER 50S.  
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH BAY RECOVER THE NEXT DAY, AND BY THE  
WEEKEND, MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
60S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVEN  
WARMER, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TO  
REACH (DO WE DARE SAY IT?) THE 80S NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
VFR-MVFR, SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH RECENT WET WEATHER, A  
PATCH OR TWO OF VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER FOG IS  
NOT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS; WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.  
VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST  
WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.  
 
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING  
TONIGHT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY. VFR IS FORECAST TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 855 PM PDT MON MAR 17 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH STRONG  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL, ROUGH SEAS  
AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ504-506-  
516>518.  
 
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ504-506-  
516>518.  
 
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MRY  
BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT  
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES  
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO  
PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT  
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DIALH  
LONG TERM....DIALH  
AVIATION...CANEPA  
MARINE...CANEPA  
 
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