281
FXUS66 KMTR 061120
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
420 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
- COOLER INTO THE WORK WEEK
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ARRIVES IN THE MID WEEK AND LASTS INTO THE
WEEKEND
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
IT WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND
A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD BROKEN AT LIVERMORE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STEADILY COOL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE DROPPING PRESSURE
ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REBUILD. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SINCE
SUNSET. MOST COASTAL AREAS AND SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOOK TO
SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CHANCES INTO THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE
MID MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE REBUILDING MARINE LAYER AND BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON! THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 60 DEGREES WHILE
THE INLAND AREAS SPAN THE 60S AND 70S. ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS
LOOK TO BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK, BUT JUST BARELY.
THE COOLING TREND WILL AFFECT MONDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AS WELL,
WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE MORE INLAND AREAS AND
AROUND 50 FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY MOSTLY THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW SAYS FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND THE MARINE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOES SEE A BIT OF WARM UP IN A FEW AREAS AS
THE WARM-SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE AREA.
THE EVENING MODEL UPDATES HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH COMBO HEADING OUR WAY IN THE . THE WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF IT WILL FOSTER SOME DRIZZLE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES. THESE CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THAT
NIGHT. MEASURABLE, BUT STILL VERY LIGHT, RAIN HAS MOSTLY BEEN PUSHED
BACK TO THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY FOR THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. THESE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW
TO SLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING INTO THAT NIGHT.
THE MIXING ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE LOW WILL OFFER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY SHOWS
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES THAN THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
FORECASTERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOW CAN STILL CHANGE TRAJECTORY
AND SHIFT AROUND THESE STORM CHANCES.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS SATURDAY, CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW LOOK TO LAST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 414 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OOZED INLAND
OVERNIGHT. MARINE LAYER IS APPROX 1K OR LESS. DISSIPATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 16-18Z MOST AREAS WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL SITES AND AFTER 03Z IN SF
BAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...CAMS AND SAT SHOW LOW CIGS HUGGING THE GAP AT
THE MOMENT INCHING SE. WILL KEEP CIGS IN TAF BASED ON TRENDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. CLOUDS CLEAR LATE MORNING. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING DURING TAIL END OF PM
RUSH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. CIGS MORE LIKELY NW AND NE.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SOLID SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH CIGS
LINGERING THROUGH 18Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY RETURN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEEK. LOCALLY
FRESH BREEZES WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS, A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND MODERATE SEAS. WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A FRESH BREEZE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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