255
FXUS66 KMTR 020518
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
918 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY DURING HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND SAN PABLO BAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AT PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER, JUST BEYOND OUR EXTENDED FORECAST,
THERE'S SOME HOPE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SOME RAINFALL. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN UPDATED OUTLOOK EARLIER TODAY,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
IT'S ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVENT HIGHS FROM GETTING AS WARM
AS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE COAST, 60S FOR THE THE AREAS MORE INLAND, AND INTO THE 70S FOR
THE FAR INTERIOR. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE OVERNIGHT OFFERS MORE OF THE SAME COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WITH LOWS REDUCING ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. INTERIOR VALLEYS DO LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
WHILE MOST AREAS SEE THE 40S OVERNIGHT. SMALL INCREASES IN OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITIES LOOK TO OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR NORTH AND EAST BAY FOG
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME HINTS FOR FOG AROUND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. THIS FOG LOOKS TO BE LONGER LASTING IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL, WITH FOG CHANCES LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING.
DESPITE OF THE LATE CLEARING, TEMPERATURES WARM AT A GOOD RATE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECASTED HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OUR SUNDAY HIGHS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 234 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
THE WARMING TREND HITS ITS STRIDE IN THE MID WEEK AS THE JET
STREAM'S RIDGE PATTERN STRENGTHENS AND TIGHTENS WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS
TILTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER TO STILL WINDS, AND A FEW
AREAS OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THE MIX OF MORE STAGNANT AIR, CLEAR SKIES,
AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE 60S AND 70S
BY TUESDAY. THEN A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED REX BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE
WEST COAST THE MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PORTION CENTERED
OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRYING
HUMIDITIES, AND WEAK WINDS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD 70S SOUTH OF THE SF BAY AND
IN THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY, WHILE THE BAY SHORELINE AND PACIFIC COAST
SEE THE UPPER 60S.
THE REX BLOCK WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST FOR THURSDAY, CAUSING SLIGHT
DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES THAT DAY, AND THEN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THAT NIGHT, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONGER TERM MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH AND FRONT
BUILDING IN THE PACIFIC AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH, BUT
SOME ARE SHOWING THAT IT'S SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE ENOUGH TO OFFER
RAIN FOR THE BAY AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. FOR
NOW THIS RAIN DOESN'T LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL, AND THE SPREAD OF
TIMING OFFERED BY THE MODELS HINTS THAT THE TIME OF ARRIVAL COULD BE
PUSHED FURTHER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
TERMINALS IN THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS THAT HAVE SEEN
PATCHY BUT DENSE FOG DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KSTS AND KLVK THE
LAST FEW OVERNIGHTS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BUT NOT INTERFERE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE ROUGH SEAS AND A FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS SUBSIDE, BECOMING MODERATE, BY
TUESDAY. IMPROVED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH SEAS
TO BUILD STARTING FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 333 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. REMEMBER: STAY OFF OF JETTIES,
PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ506.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...KENNEDY
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