080
FXUS66 KMTR 120007
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
407 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
- MODERATE RAIN, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 127 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE
SEE TODAY. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
TONIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING THE AFFECTS FROM A WEAK TO MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BEGIN IN THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE BAY AREA AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER,
INLAND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE FULL FORCE OF IMPACTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHES WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO
1.50". AS FOR WINDS, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 60 MPH IN
THE REGION'S PEAKS, FAVORED GAPS, AND PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 127 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE THAT PUSHES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT A
DECENT PACE WITHOUT STALLING. AS SUCH, WE ARE EXPECTING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY TO BE IN THE
COASTAL RANGES WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE 2-3" OF RAINFALL (AS THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTING TO PICK UP RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM). RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME LOOK
TO BE AROUND 1-2" IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION AND
THE NORTH BAY, 1-1.25" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO, AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1" IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS RAINFALL WITHIN THE
TYPICALLY RAIN SHADOWED VALLEYS (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
RAINFALL).
THERE REMAINS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA. THESE CHANCES
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS INLAND AND
TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND LIGHTNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE ARE
EXPECTING POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE NOW MOVING TOWARD THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY
WITH RESPECT TO THE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LEAN BELOW AVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION
ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 347 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AREA IMPACTING AVIATION.
WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKET THE REGION WITH
STRATUS OVER THE OCEAN AND LOCALLY INLAND. MRY, SNS, HAF ARE
SEEING THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT LEADING SOME SOME ADDITIONAL
CIG DEVELOPMENT WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE. IFR TO MVFR WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STORM.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND ULTIMATELY SE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS OVER 20-25 KT WITH VCSH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING RUSH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CIGS DO LIFT
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT'S IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STORM WITH
STRONGER S WINDS AND POSSIBLE VCSH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT A LEAST THURSDAY. LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY STRONGER STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
POINT REYES. HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORM. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A BUILDING NW
SWELL WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY, BUT THE LARGER SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS
UP TO 15 FEET BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR MRY
BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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