955
FXUS66 KMTR 112218
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
218 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 205 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ONGOING SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE WELL DEFINED CENTER OF A SLOW MOVING (NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY)
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR. SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUR ENTIRE AREA HAS
SEEN AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH COASTAL AREAS
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL RANGES SEEING BETWEEN 0.50"-
1.5" AND LOWER LYING INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND 0.10"-0.50".
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF (SUB-SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 200-400 (OR A LITTLE HIGHER IN SOME
SPOTS), HOWEVER WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW
ATTM, THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO SHEAR TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY.
THUS, RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND BE MOSTLY DONE
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING OVER LAND, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
OFFSHORE TRACKING SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL INCREASE 3-5 DEGREES FROM TODAY, WITH MORNING
CLOUDS CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 205 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO SET IN ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY THE UPPER 50S TO MID-
60S. A DEEPENING OFFSHORE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASES IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN A WET PATTERN
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WE'LL SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST BEFORE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING INLAND
DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 35-40MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FIRST ALONG THE COAST THEN PUSHING
FARTHER INLAND. THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN LACKS
CONSENSUS, HOWEVER THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN AND
CONTINUOUS TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS IS SUPPORTED BY TODAYS
UPDATE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, HIGHLIGHTING THE WEST
COAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS AT KSTS, KHAF, AND KAPC. THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE FEATURE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND BRING
WAVES OF SHRA AND SOUTH TO EAST WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS
HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUST MAGNITUDES IS MEDIUM AND THE
LATEST TAF SET ADJUSTS WINDS DOWNWARD BY AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS. BY
THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. IN FACT, AT KAPC AND KSTS, NE'LY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN
LATER PERIODS OF THE TAF. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHRA IS
ANTICIPATED TO BETWEEN NOW AND THROUGH 02Z, THOUGH AREAS SUCH AS
OAK, SJC, AND TO SOME DEGREE APC, MAY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE DUE TO
TERRAIN FEATURES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THESE SITES. TS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AND THE BEST CHANCES, AROUND 5-10%,
RESIDE AT TAF SITES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...SE'LY WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 13 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
ENCOURAGE A SE PLAN CONFIG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO DROP DOWN TO OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS CLOSER TO 02Z. IN ADDITION, BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED, WITH MORE ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR SHRA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BETWEEN 01Z-03Z THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SUCH THAT THERE'S MORE FLEXIBILITY IN RUNWAY CONFIGS. WHILE VFR IS
ANTICIPATED, IMC DUE TO CIGS AT OR BELOW FL050 ARE FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IMC DUE TO CIGS AT OR BELOW FL050 ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IFR VISIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY AT MRY, CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED WITH BRIEF STINTS OF
SHRA/+SHRA. SOUTH TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
GUST MAGNITUDE IS LOW. I'VE OPTED TO OMIT GUSTS FROM KSNS DUE TO
THE WEAKER WIND FIELD. AT MRY, HOWEVER, GUSTS IN THE 22-25 KNOT
RANGE ARE ADVERTISED AS WINDS ALOFT HERE REMAIN STRONGER.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH TODAY
WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST. WHILE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL DOMINATE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
WILL PERSIST MAINLY FOR INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO HAZARDOUS BOATING AND NEAR-SHORE CONDITIONS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...BAIN
MARINE...RGASS
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