383
FXUS66 KMTR 310502
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1002 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
- PATTERN CHANGE TODAY WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1249 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS SEEN WITH MID-TO-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS,
ALBEIT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, CAN BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY. THE MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS COMING FROM
THE TROPICS AND WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. WHILE THIS MAY SOUND JUICY, IT
WILL STILL HAVE A DRY ATMOSPHERE TO OVERCOME WITH LITTLE HELP FROM
WEAK FORCING. AS SUCH, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE
ACCUMULATION WITH THE BIG SUR COAST AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
RECEIVING RELATIVELY HIGHER TOTALS WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1249 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS WEDNESDAY AS A GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HEADS TO THE WASHINGTON/CANADA BORDER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FROM SURFACE TO JET STREAM AND
WILL GIVE US A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BENEFICIAL, LIGHT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLICK ROADWAYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE COMING OFF A FOUR WEEK DRY STREAK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY GIVEN THAT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM BEING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AMOUNT UP TO 0.25" WITH UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY. THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST, INTERIOR EAST BAY VALLEYS, AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY
WILL SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BACK TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN NORTHERLY (DRYING)
WINDS ON THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND FRIDAY, WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE AND VEER TO BECOME OFFSHORE. IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND, SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UP
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A
SOUTHERN SURGE OF STRATUS UP THE BIG SUR COAST LINE MAY IMPACT THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRATUS IN VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA TERMINALS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTIONING IN THE TAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR
SUNRISE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSNS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER KMRY MAY HOVER BETWEEN IFR/VFR
WITH CIGS FROM A SOUTHERN SURGES THAT MOVED UP THE BIG SUR
COASTLINE TODAY. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD AND BECOME VERY ROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page