030  
FXUS66 KSGX 310432  
AFDSGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA  
932 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,  
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GREATEST  
CHANCES MONDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH WINDY  
WEATHER IN COASTAL AREAS AS WELL TUESDAY. FAIR WARMER WEATHER WILL  
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
 
 
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTIES...  
 
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS,  
STRONGEST ON THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE PASSES WHERE GUSTS AROUND  
40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND COULD  
PRODUCE BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE DESERTS,  
INCLUDING ALONG I-10 THROUGH THE COACHELLA VALLEY. WEST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS, LOW CLOUDS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN  
AGAIN. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE  
CALIFORNIA BIGHT NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD  
REACH OUR AREA LIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  
 
WE WILL BE UNDER WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER JET  
REMAINING AIMED AT CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DESPITE INCREASING  
MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING AR, LACK OF DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO ONLY  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS.  
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE  
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, WHERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY  
ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND MOVES ACROSS  
SO CAL, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND ADJACENT  
FOOTHILLS/INLAND VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOUNTS OF 0.15  
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS, WITH A 20-35%  
CHANCE OF 0.10" OR MORE AND A 5-15% CHANCE OF 0.25" OR MORE,  
HIGHEST IN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE NBM HAS A A  
15-30% CHANCE OF 0.25" OR MORE AND A 5-15% CHANCE OF 0.50" OR  
MORE, THOUGH A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1" OVER  
THE FAVORED COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE  
7500 FT MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, LOWERING TO AROUND 6000-6500 FT  
MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF WITH ONLY LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO THAT ELEVATION.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY  
WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY, INCLUDING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND  
VALLEYS WHERE THERE'S A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30  
MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL  
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
OTHERWISE A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN  
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.  
 
ENSEMBLES ARE AT MUCH GREATER CONSENSUS FOR THE THU EVENT WITH THE  
TROUGH AXIS, FROM THAT SAME LOW THAT IS NOW OFF THE OREGON COAST,  
FAIRLY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. OVERALL  
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20" RANGE EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE  
MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500-5500 FEET  
MSL. THE PRECIP COULD VARY IN AMOUNTS OVER SHORTER DISTANCES DUE TO  
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MORE CONVECTIVE VS. STRATIFORM  
PRECIP, THOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FRI/SAT, THOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS  
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA, AND ONLY 7% OF SOLUTIONS IN THE  
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAVE STRONG RIDGING HERE. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE  
WARMER AND DRIER BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET TO OR ABOVE NORMAL  
UNTIL AROUND SUN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
310330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/COASTAL SLOPES...SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WITH  
BASES GENERALLY AT 3500-5000FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND  
THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO  
1000-2000FT BY 06-09Z. PATCHY DZ AND/OR -RA CHANCES INCREASE BY 09Z  
AS WELL, WHICH MAY LOCALLY BRING BASES BELOW 1000FT AND VIS TO 2-  
5SM, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. VIS BELOW 1SM ALONG COASTAL SLOPES WHERE  
LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF  
BY 21-00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WILL REMAIN  
AROUND 1000-2000FT MSL, AND ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.  
 
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000FT MSL WITH  
OCCASIONAL WAVE CLOUDS PRESENT AT 12000-15000FT MSL. STRONG WESTERLY  
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND  
IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN  
DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS  
AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CALMER SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT  
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ON TUESDAY. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8  
SECONDS) NORTHWEST SWELL (290-300 DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY,  
BRINGING VERY STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-13 FEET. WINDS INCREASE  
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL, GUSTING TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS  
AND TO 25-30 KTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY FALL ON THURSDAY. A  
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE  
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS POSSIBLE. HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 8 FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR  
WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL  
BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.  
 

 
   
SKYWARN
 
 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE  
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN  
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN  
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.  
 
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER  
AND OUT TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN  
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE  
ISLAND.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...SS  
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...STEWEY  
 
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