195
FXUS66 KSGX 291820
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1120 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. COOLER,
WINDIER, AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK.
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20 PERCENT) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA
WINDS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 10 AM WAS SHOWING A FOG BANK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES, EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARDS MISSION
BEACH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LIFEGUARDS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY OF
1/8 TO 2 MILES WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE REACHING LAND. VISIBILITY
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONE
LAST DAY OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. BY MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COOLING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE US WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY WILL MAKE IT THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE HOLDING STEADY AT AROUND 15
TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE 0.10" OR LESS, WITH THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS HAVING A 20 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 0.10".
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS TO OUR EAST, THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW IT DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD TURN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE,
BRINGING CHANCES OF SANTA ANA WINDS, DRY AIR, AND ANOTHER UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL PATTERN, THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL DIG AND HOW FAST IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. BOTH OF THOSE FACTORS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF SANTA ANA WINDS THAT DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
CW3E WRF ENSEMBLE HAS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WEAK SANTA ANA
WIND EVENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT.
AVIATION
291640Z...AREAS OF CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OVER COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VCTY KSAN/KCRQ SEE LOW CLOUDS NEAR 200-400
FT MSL AND VIS 3-5 SM. LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT COMPLETELY BETWEEN
18-19Z. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN 04-06Z MON AND PUSH FURTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE COASTLINE. BASES WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR 600-1000 FT MSL WITH HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN OBSCURED IN
FOG; CLOUDS SCATTERING NEAR 16-18Z MON.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WITH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT MSL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS ON
THURSDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...APR
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