030
FXUS66 KSGX 310432
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
932 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH GREATEST
CHANCES MONDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH WINDY
WEATHER IN COASTAL AREAS AS WELL TUESDAY. FAIR WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS,
STRONGEST ON THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE PASSES WHERE GUSTS AROUND
40-50 MPH ARE OCCURRING. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE DESERTS,
INCLUDING ALONG I-10 THROUGH THE COACHELLA VALLEY. WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, LOW CLOUDS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN
AGAIN. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REACH OUR AREA LIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NUDGES INTO THE AREA.
WE WILL BE UNDER WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING AIMED AT CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING AR, LACK OF DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, WHERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND MOVES ACROSS
SO CAL, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS/INLAND VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOUNTS OF 0.15
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS, WITH A 20-35%
CHANCE OF 0.10" OR MORE AND A 5-15% CHANCE OF 0.25" OR MORE,
HIGHEST IN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE NBM HAS A A
15-30% CHANCE OF 0.25" OR MORE AND A 5-15% CHANCE OF 0.50" OR
MORE, THOUGH A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1" OVER
THE FAVORED COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE
7500 FT MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, LOWERING TO AROUND 6000-6500 FT
MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO THAT ELEVATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY, INCLUDING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND
VALLEYS WHERE THERE'S A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND.
ENSEMBLES ARE AT MUCH GREATER CONSENSUS FOR THE THU EVENT WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS, FROM THAT SAME LOW THAT IS NOW OFF THE OREGON COAST,
FAIRLY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. OVERALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20" RANGE EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500-5500 FEET
MSL. THE PRECIP COULD VARY IN AMOUNTS OVER SHORTER DISTANCES DUE TO
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MORE CONVECTIVE VS. STRATIFORM
PRECIP, THOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FRI/SAT, THOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA, AND ONLY 7% OF SOLUTIONS IN THE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAVE STRONG RIDGING HERE. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE
WARMER AND DRIER BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET TO OR ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL AROUND SUN.
AVIATION
310330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/COASTAL SLOPES...SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BASES GENERALLY AT 3500-5000FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND
THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
1000-2000FT BY 06-09Z. PATCHY DZ AND/OR -RA CHANCES INCREASE BY 09Z
AS WELL, WHICH MAY LOCALLY BRING BASES BELOW 1000FT AND VIS TO 2-
5SM, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. VIS BELOW 1SM ALONG COASTAL SLOPES WHERE
LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF
BY 21-00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1000-2000FT MSL, AND ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000FT MSL WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVE CLOUDS PRESENT AT 12000-15000FT MSL. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND
IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN
DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS
AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
CALMER SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ON TUESDAY. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8
SECONDS) NORTHWEST SWELL (290-300 DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING VERY STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-13 FEET. WINDS INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL, GUSTING TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND TO 25-30 KTS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY FALL ON THURSDAY. A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS POSSIBLE. HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 8 FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR
WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL
BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...STEWEY
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