849
FXUS66 KSGX 281950
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1250 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE THICK BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE OR GREATER HEATRISK IN THE COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOSE AREAS
COULD SEE NEAR RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE THICK BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT
BROUGHT US RAIN AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT US COOLER CONDITIONS AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY LOWER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3-12 DEGREES LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
WARMING ON TUESDAY AND GREATER INLAND WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST
TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER
DESERTS IN THE UPPER 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES, CANYONS
AND ON ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES. THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH A DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS CAN'T BE
ELIMINATED, BUT CONDITIONS ARE STABLE ENOUGH TO MAKE THAT OUTCOME
UNLIKELY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST SO THAT THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE OR GREATER HEATRISK IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS
AND THE WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH THE
LOWER DESERTS AROUND 100.
FOR THE WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL PLAIN, AND FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN FOR RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE EXISTING RECORDS FOR SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS WAS FROM 1997.
AVIATION
281800Z...BKN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 9K FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME CUMULUS BASED AT AROUND
10 KFT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AFTER 20Z INTO
TONIGHT. PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS BASED AT 1200 FEET MSL TO DEVELOP
AFTER 03Z, BUT RANDOM AND INTERMITTENT. THERE WILL BE BETTER
COVERAGE RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER 06Z, BUT REMAIN PATCHY,
WITH BEST CHANCE OF CIGS REMAINING CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTS.
BASES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL; SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
EARLY MORNING, WITH ANY CIGS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT BY 14-16Z FROM
EAST TO WEST.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERATING CHOPPY SEAS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTAINS MORE DETAILS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEACHES
SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE ODALYS WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE POLO TODAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE SURF
WITH EXPECTED SETS UP TO 6 FEET TODAY IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED SURF, HIGH TIDES WILL PEAK AT 6.8-
7.1 FEET DURING THE LATE MORNINGS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST
ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AND ELEVATED SURF WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND COASTAL EROSION. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE NOTE - MENTIONED TIDE PREDICTIONS IN THE ADVISORY HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ACTUAL MEASURED TIDE OBSERVATIONS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...STEWEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page