757
FXUS66 KSGX 130456
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
956 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HOTTER AND
HUMID WEATHER MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM THE MONSOON ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. COASTAL FLOODING WILL IMPACT BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
EVENING HIGH TIDES EXCEEDING 7 FEET.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
A DECAYING STORM SYSTEM THAT OCCURRED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LAST
NIGHT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, PROVIDING CLOUDS AND SOME
REPORTS OF SPRINKLES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING TODAY, THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE APPARENT STARTING
TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO FURTHER
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS; CUMULUS MAY FORM
WITH SOME AREAS OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS BUT CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
15-25%.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE HELP OF A WEAK TROUGH
OFFSHORE, WILL AID TO BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL
WIND PATTERN TO OUR AREA BY MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES (35-55% CHANCE) TO SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER UP NORTH
TO BIG BEAR AND INTO THE HIGH DESERT AS THE NOTABLE PLACES THAT
MAY SEE STORM ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON HOW FAR
WEST THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH LIMITED CHANCES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY, AS CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS IN
ARIZONA MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA, WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS YET AGAIN.
A SUBTLE DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL DECREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT INCREASE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. AN EXTREME
HEAT WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FROM THE COAST TO BELOW
6,000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACTLY HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL VALLEYS,
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND POTENTIALLY THE EASTERN
SAN DIEGO CO VALLEYS ARE IN THE CARDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. THIS, ALONG WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY, WILL GIVE AREAS MODERATE (RATING 3/5) TO MAJOR
(4/5) HEAT RISK. VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WHO ARE OUTSIDE
FOR LONG PERIODS WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO SEE HEAT IMPACTS
AND RELATED ILLNESSES. LIMITED PLACES WILL BE AVAILABLE TO COOL
OFF, INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS, SO PLEASE LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS IF YOU
ARE ABLE TO DO SO.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED TOWARD SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COLORADO ROCKIES, WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE A GREATER INFLUX OF MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NBM
HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO INLAND AREAS
BY THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHERE EXACTLY ANY RAIN
COULD FALL, ESPECIALLY FOR DESERTS AND THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
140430Z....COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 08Z WITH BASES 900-1200 FT MSL. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF CIGS AT KCRQ AND KSAN 09-17Z, AND A 30-40% CHANCE AT KSNA 10-15Z.
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING BY 18Z. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUCH PATCHIER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET
OF ANY CIGS. OTHERWISE VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AT/ABOVE
10,000 FT MSL.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...THERE IS A 25-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CB BASES NEAR 15,000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 35,000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RA
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
AT/ABOVE 10,000 FT MSL.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES PEAKING 7.0-7.5 FT EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TIDES COMBINE WITH A MODEST SOUTH SWELL (3 FT SWELL AT 13-15
SECONDS FROM 190 DEGREES) TO GENERATE SURF OF 3-5 FT FOR SOUTH-
FACING BEACHES AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS, BOARDWALKS, BEACH PARKING LOTS,
AND BEACH ADJACENT STREETS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES. HIGHEST TIDES
EACH EVENING WILL GENERALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND
CONTAINS FURTHER DETAILS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
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