284
FXUS66 KSGX 221130
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
CLOUDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MARINE LOW CLOUDS
LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGHOUT THIS
UPCOMING WEEK JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BRINGING WARM AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID-70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND RIGHT AROUND 70F AT THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLY MILDER IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM THE 40S AND LOWER 50S YESTERDAY TO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS BUMP UP AROUND 5 DEGREES REGION-
WIDE MONDAY AND PLATEAU AROUND THE LOW-70S TO LOW-80S THROUGHOUT
THE COASTAL BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE FOR
HIGHS ABOVE 80F FOR INLAND AREAS EACH OF THESE DAYS. MEANWHILE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO MID-
WEEK FROM THE UPPER 70S TODAY TO LIKELY (70-90%) REACHING 90F AND
ABOVE BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA OF THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD LAKE WEEK, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, PEAKING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, INTO THE MID-70S AT
THE COAST, MID-80S INLAND AND MID-90S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS -
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. EVEN MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE
6,000 FEET - JUST HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED FEET OF SNOW - HAVE
THE POTENTIAL (30-50%) OF REACHING ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY LATE WEEK.
BEYOND, MOST WPC MODEL CLUSTERS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING OR
MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION OR JUST COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES/PASSES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DAYTIME RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO 10-20% INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW MID-WEEK BRINGS MIN-RH'S TO THE 30-40% RANGE FOR
INLAND AREAS DESPITE THE INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE STATUS OF THE MARINE LAYER,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WITH
THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION
221130Z...VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW-SCT CIRRUS AOA 25,000FT MSL PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...WESTERINK
AVIATION/MARINE...STEWEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page