145
FXUS66 KSGX 151053
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
253 AM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING, INCLUDING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY 0.10 INCH PER
HOUR OR LESS. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE DRASTICALLY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 300 MI WEST
OF SAN DIEGO DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A VORT MAX LIFTS NORTH OVER SO
CAL. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH FORECAST INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) OF OVER 500 KG/M/S AND PW NEAR 1.5" WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 6
AM AND 4 PM. RAINFALL RATES FOR URBAN AREAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND 0.30-0.50"/HR, AND AS HIGH AS 0.80"/HR ON THE SOUTH FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS WELL, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES/AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES OF THIS INTENSITY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ROADWAY FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND
BRING A THREAT OF MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND BELOW THE RECENT
BURN SCARS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THROUGH 10
PM TODAY.
ADDITIONAL TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE AROUND
1.50-2.25" FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS, 2-4" FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
AND 0.50-0.80" FOR THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
7500 FT THROUGH THE DAY, LOWERING TO 6500-7000 FT TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN RISING TO AROUND 7500-8000 FT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-4" ABOVE 7500 FT.
RAIN TURNS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE, THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WE MAY GET A BRIEF
BREAK LATE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN SOMETIME DURING AFTERNOON, HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE
ANOTHER SLOW MOVER WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, BUT
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR THE
COASTS AND VALLEYS, NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE PRECIPITATION
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0.10-0.20" ON THE DRY END TO AROUND 1-1.5" ON
THE WET END. THE CHANCE OF 48 HR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50"
IS AROUND 45-65%, AND CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" IS 25-50%, LOWEST IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE LOWER,
FALLING TO 5500-6000 FT MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RISING TO 6000-6500 FT
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM LATER IN THE WEEK, HUGE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT ABOUT 50/50 ON THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH
JUST OFF THE COAST (WETTER) VERSUS A MORE INSIDE TRACK (DRIER),
AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMPLETELY DRY. THE TIMING IS ALSO
QUESTIONABLE, WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AS EACH STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION
151000Z...SCATTERED -SHRA MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH BKN-OVC DECK 3000-5000 FT MSL AND A FEW SCT LOWER DECKS
1000-3000 FT MSL. MAIN FRONTAL BAND TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 13Z,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. AT
LEAST TWO WAVES OF PRECIP LIKELY 13-21Z, BRINGING BASES AS LOW AS
500-1000 FT MSL AND VIS 1-3 SM IN INTERMITTENT +RA, WITH BRIEF
BREAKS OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS LIKELY. 10-20% CHANCE TSRA, HIGHEST
FOR THE COAST AND IN INLAND VALLEYS 13-22Z THEN HIGHER CHANCES
MIGRATE INLAND AFTER ABOUT 20Z. COVERAGE OF TSRA AND RA (ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS) BEGINS TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 21Z, WITH SCATTERED -SHRA CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FRONTAL BAND TO BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST ALONG COAST, 13Z TO ABOUT 20Z. WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER ABOUT 20Z AND DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST,
WHILE WSW GUSTS 25-40 KTS PICK UP OVER MTNS AND DESERT SLOPES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHRA ALONG THE COASTS AND VALLEYS ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z SUN, BRINGING LOWERED
BASES AND REDUCED VIS, WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHEST
CHANCES IN SD COUNTY FOR IMPACTS.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS 25-
35 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STEEP, MIXED SEAS 5-8 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
MORE. WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN
TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW UNDER SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN RESULTING IN GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TODAY CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT INTENSITY OF WINDS,
BUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
BEACHES
WEST SWELL 4-5 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH A SOUTH WIND SWELL TO CREATE
ELEVATED SURF 4-7 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT FOR MORE.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY
INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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