004
FXUS66 KSGX 051841
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1041 AM PST THU MAR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO SAN
DIEGO FOR THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG AND BELOW
THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A COASTAL EDDY AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT DEEPENING OF
THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 3000 FEET WITH WIDESPREAD COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS. AS
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING,
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING.
NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
TODAY AND IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COACHELLA VALLEY MOSTLY TO
THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL COOL 5
TO 10 DEGREES TODAY WITH THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FOR THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE DESERTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN BAJA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO WITH
GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 70 MPH FOR THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWING THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST HAVING THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND WITH WARMING AND
DRYING FOR THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
051835Z....COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTS 20-30 KTS IN NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES UNTIL 02-04Z THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LLWS AND MOD UP/DOWN
DRAFTS EXPECTED. WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS A BIT
STRONGER ON FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON 14-20Z. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON WINDS REACHING 35 KTS AT KONT AND 25 KTS AT KSNA
DURING THIS TIME.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED: 25-40 KTS WITH ISOLD GUSTS
TO 55 KTS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ON COASTAL FACING FOOTHILLS.
AREAS OF LLWS AND MOD UP/DOWN DRAFTS IN LEE (SOUTH OF) MOUNTAINS
MAINLY IN SBD COUNTY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON KPSP GUSTING TO 35 KTS
UNTIL 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP TODAY
GENERATING CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS THE DETAILS. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...APR
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