075  
FXUS66 KSGX 230600  
AFDSGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA  
1000 PM PST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW  
PREVAILING. IF ANY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE  
COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING COOLER,  
CLOUDIER, AND WINDIER WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIPITATION  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
 
 
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO  
COUNTIES...  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK  
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS OCCURING TOMORROW.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 148 PM PST  
 
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY  
INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
MORNING BELOW WIND PRONE PASSES, LOCALLY INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE, AND  
ON MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY  
MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE US WEST COAST COMBINES  
WITH THE PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6 TO 12  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AT THE COAST, 4 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN  
THE VALLEYS, AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE DESERTS.  
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.  
MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEGREE OF COOLING WEST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BUT THERE IS  
STILL SOME SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WILL BE. IN THE  
DESERTS, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST AS WARM AS SATURDAY OR EVEN A  
FEW DEGREES WARMER.  
 
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY CAN BE  
ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SPEED AND TRACK OF TWO LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF  
THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOWS SLOW, THAT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO  
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN  
ITS PLACEMENT. IF THE SYSTEMS STAY ON THEIR CURRENT TRACK, COOLING  
WILL START TO SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY, REACHING THE DESERTS BY  
MONDAY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BY MONDAY, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS  
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED BETWEEN THE INCOMING LOW FROM THE PACIFIC  
AND AN INSIDE SLIDER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL SET US  
UP FOR COOLER, WINDIER, AND WETTER CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK.  
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK  
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SOMETIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE  
REMAINS SPREAD IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT ONLY 10-25% OF  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (MONDAY-  
EARLY WEDNESDAY) EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST AND  
VALLEYS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, 30-40% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE  
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (MONDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY)EXCEEDING  
ONE INCH OF RAIN.  
 
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, AND  
WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOWS, PARTICULARLY HOW  
FAR SOUTH THE INSIDE SLIDER WILL DIG (THAT SYSTEM WILL HAVE COLDER  
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT). CURRENT FORECAST HAS SNOW LEVELS STARTING  
AROUND 7500 FT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, FALLING TO AROUND 6000 FT BY  
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, PERIODS OF GUSTY  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL WITH THE PASSAGE OF  
THE LOWS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
230445Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT  
MSL, LOCALLY SCT-BKN WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL UNTIL 10Z. SCT010-  
015 AFTER 10Z. NE-E WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AND LLWS AT TIMES VCNTY  
KSNA AND KONT 09Z-17Z.  
 
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20,000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED  
VIS THROUGH FRIDAY. N/E WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ALONG COASTAL  
SLOPES 06Z-22Z FRIDAY WITH MOD UDDFS AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER  
STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS  
A HIGH CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SKYWARN
 
 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE  
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...SUK/CO  
AVIATION/MARINE...PG  
 
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