732
FXUS66 KSGX 191125
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE FINAL ROUND OF RAIN, SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE TODAY,
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS BAND. SHOWERS
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST AND FOG LIKELY IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FAIR, DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY IN WESTERN SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD TODAY BY SOCAL
STANDARDS, AND ALL AREAS NOT IN THE LOWER DESERT WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60 TODAY. WE AWAIT AND LOOK NORTHWEST TO THE NEXT ORGANIZED
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FINAL WAVE, OR COLD FRONT,
THIS WEEK. IT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOCAL LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, AND GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH AT THE COAST
AND 45-65 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS (A FEW HIGHER GUSTS).
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ALL OVER THE REGION. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY BY SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AND
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL WILL AMOUNT TO ROUGHLY 0.25-0.50 IN
THE COASTAL BASIN, 0.50 TO 1.50 IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND LESS THAN
0.25 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE AT THE
4500 FOOT ELEVATION, 1-8 INCHES FROM THAT ELEVATION UP TO 7000
FEET, WITH 8-12 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE DRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE MOUNTAINS AN UNSAFE ADVENTURE BETTER LEFT UNDONE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND
WESTERN VALLEYS ALONG WITH THIS BAND. THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SHOWERS END OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE CLEARING IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO PATCHY FROST AS WELL AS
GROUND FOG BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FAIR AND DRY, BUT COOL WEATHER
STARTS FRIDAY, WITH SOME VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BOOST THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AMPLIFIES A LITTLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOTS OF 70S SUNDAY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK AND STATIONARY RIDGE APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE
OVER CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDDLING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
THAT PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD SHOWN TO GIVE US SOME RAIN AROUND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BUT THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SHOWS THAT AR TO NOT QUITE REACH SOCAL. AS SUCH, OUR
FORECASTS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
191000Z...IN THE COASTAL BASIN, ISO -SHRA AND FEW-BKN CLOUDS BASED
3000-6000 FT MSL TONIGHT.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILL IN AND LOWER AFTER 12-15Z THU FROM THE COAST TO
THE MTNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BRINGING A BAND OF RA/+RA. THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL
BASIN FROM 18Z THU TO 03Z FRI. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
BAND, GUSTING 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE COASTAL BASIN, 35-45 KTS
WIDESPREAD FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS, AND 50-65 KTS ALONG DESERT
SLOPES. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COASTS/VALLEYS. MTNS SHROUDED IN FG AND SNOW (MAINLY ABOVE 5 KFT
MSL) THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, REDUCING VIS TO 0-2SM AT TIMES.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. WINDS ALSO TURN WESTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BASIN IN THE EVENING, THOUGH REMAIN STRONG IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN SAN
DIEGO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SD COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS
TO DECREASE OVER ORANGE COUNTY.
MARINE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AND STEEP 8-11 FEET SEAS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS ALSO
DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH SURF OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED WITH SETS AS
HIGH AS 9 FEET, HIGHEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SURF DIMINISHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 10 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...WESTERINK
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