481
FXUS66 KSGX 021550
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO
SUNDAY WITH SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
SHALLOWER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOT
SPREADING MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN COASTAL AREAS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS MORNING LOOKS AN AWFULLY LOT LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING WITH A
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AND LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE COASTAL
BASIN. CLOUDS HAVE EVEN SNUCK THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND ARE
NEARLY SPILLING INTO THE HIGH DESERT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY AND THE INVERSION JUST
AS STRONG, SO EXPECT SLOW CLEARING ONCE AGAIN, WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE REMAINS CLEAR.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING GRADUAL WARMING AND HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL FINALLY BECOME MORE SHALLOW, WITH
LESS INLAND EXTENT OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE BEACHES COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY, ESPECIALLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND OVER SO CAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BRINGING GREATER WARMING WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERT WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HIGHS IN EXCESS OF 110 IN THE LOW DESERTS
THESE DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL MESAS AND HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN ON
SUNDAY, AND AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS
MAY BE FAIRLY PATCHY BY THEN.
SLOW COOLING TAKES PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE EXPANSIVE AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WOULD BRING A WARMING TREND LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW MOISTURE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SO CAL BY SATURDAY AND
REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE IS ON THE DRIER SIDE AND HOLDS OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF THAT WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS.
INTERESTINGLY, THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EC ENSEMBLES IN TERMS OF MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LACKING AT THIS
POINT, BUT AT LEAST SOME SIGNS ARE POINTING TO THE FIRST MONSOON
PUSH BY MID JULY.
AVIATION
020900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT MSL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY OF 3-5 MILES WILL OCCUR IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. SCATTER OUT EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS 15-
17Z AND ALONG THE COAST FROM 19-21Z. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS COULD
LINGER ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE
BACK IN AFTER 03Z, WITH LOWER BASES AND LESS INLAND EXTENT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
TODAY.
AVIATION
021530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL COVER MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF THE MTNS.
REDUCED VISIBILITY OF 1-3 MILES WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN
INTERSECT. CLEARING EXPECTED INLAND 15-17Z AND ALONG THE COAST FROM
19-21Z. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
INLAND AFTER 03Z FRIDAY, WITH LOWER BASES AND TOPS NOT REACHING
AS FAR INLAND.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE 3-6 FT SURF THROUGH TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST SURF IN ORANGE COUNTY. A LARGER SOUTHWEST SWELL
WITH A 16-18 SEC PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND GENERATE
EVEN HIGHER SURF OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS. HIGHEST SURF AGAIN WILL BE IN
ORANGE COUNTY WHERE SOME 8 FOOT SETS WILL BE LIKELY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG
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