381
FXUS66 KSGX 102344
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL COOLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PRESENT EACH
DAY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER FURTHER
INLAND. WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7
DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS MONDAY AND 5 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERT
WITH MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE LOW DESERTS THROUGH MONDAY. MAKE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED AND SEEK SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE IF WORKING OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL COOL 5 TO 12 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND IS PUSHED EAST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN
ONSHORE FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE DESERTS ON TUESDAY AND WESTERLY WINDS FROM
THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES INTO THE DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS PASSING
FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MOST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN PREVAILING OVER THE US WEST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS
AND TAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS KEEP THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WEAKLY TROUGHY TO ZONAL, WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT OF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING BY NEXT SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND FOLLOWS THE NBM WHICH INDICATES A GRADUAL
WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM AGAIN
REPRESENTING THE HIGHEST PERCENTILES OF MOST OTHER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
110000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HANGING ALONG
THE COASTLINE, POISED TO MOVE UP TO 10-15 MILES INLAND BEGINNING 01-
03Z. BASES NEAR 1000-1300FT MSL, WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
CLOSER TO 700-900FT MSL BY 09-12Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS
REACHING KONT (20%) COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, TEMPO IN FOR BRIEF FG.
VIS REDUCTIONS 4-6SM IN BR FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN, WITH LOCALLY
1-3SM FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS. BASES LIKELY LIFTING BACK ABOVE 1000FT
MSL BY 14-15Z, WITH FULL SCATTERING BACK OFFSHORE BY 16-17Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SKC AND VFR THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS
ALONG DESERT SLOPES (UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THE BANNING PASS) THROUGH
06Z MON.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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