519
FXUS66 KSGX 270526
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1026 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH A COOLING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED WINDS AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO START TO SPREAD INLAND AS ONSHORE FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST. LOW
CLOUD AND FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE WEATHER BECOMES UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEARLY ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FROM
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN BAJA WILL STRENGTHEN
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, POSSIBLY TRANSPORTING A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN BAJA OR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOME TIME AROUND LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID, PERIODS OF ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ON
IF THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OR NORTHERN BAJA, THERE IS QUITE A RANGE OF POTENTIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER, WITH THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE PLUME CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR CONTEXT, THE RANGE OF POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS SUNDAY ARE 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ON THE HIGH END AND NEAR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ON THE LOW
END.
IN ADDITION TO RAIN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND SPEEDS,
WHICH WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A WARM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR AND
ABOUT 8500 FT. INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
270530Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
~10-30% CHANCE FOR CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH 13Z WITH BASES 900-1500
FEET MSL. CIGS THAT OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND INTERMITTENT. BETTER
CHANCE FOR COASTAL CIGS TUESDAY EVENING AFTER 03Z AS CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT INCREASE.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEACHES
HIGH TIDES DURING THE LATE MORNINGS WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 1.7
FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS, LIKELY RAISING HIGH TIDES ABOVE
8 FEET, PEAKING TUESDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTAINS
THE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
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