337
FXUS66 KSGX 021059
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
259 AM PST MON FEB 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY REACH THE COAST THIS MORNING,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WARMER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SANTA ANA WINDS. COOLER WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD INTO
THE BEACHES IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. A BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD COOLING, THOUGH HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PASSES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, DRIVING ANOTHER
ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS LIKELY WON'T STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG FROM RETURNING TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE HREF HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF FOG ALONG
THE COAST DURING THIS TIME. EVEN LATER IN THE MORNING, WIND GUSTS
BELOW THE PASSES AND ON THE COASTAL SLOPES WILL ONLY PEAK AT
AROUND 25-30 MPH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS A REX
BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA. THESE
SYSTEMS EACH STRENGTHEN INTO WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING A TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER SO CAL. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIME, LEADING TO
STRONGER EASTERLY SANTA ANA WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO PEAK ON THURSDAY, WHEN THE CW3E WEST-
WRF HAS A 60% CHANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE EVENT AND A 30% CHANCE
OF A MODERATE EVENT, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
PROBABILITIES. WE WILL ALSO SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS AND AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. PORTIONS OF INLAND ORANGE COUNTY EVEN
HAVE AROUND A 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY PER
THE NBM WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE HEATRISK IN THIS AREA. THURSDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST.
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA EVENTUALLY BECOMES PHASED WITH
AND ABSORBED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA ON
FRIDAY. HOW THIS LOW TRACKS INTO SATURDAY IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. A SMALL NUMBER OF MEMBERS FROM EACH OF THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES IS TRYING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS
OF SO CAL SOMETIME IN THE FRI-SAT TIME RANGE, BUT FOR NOW POPS
REMAIN BELOW 10%. DESPITE THE TRACK DIFFERENCES, COOLER WEATHER IS
A GUARANTEE THESE DAYS. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY FOR
MINOR WARMING, THEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT (15-20%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD BY LATE MONDAY. ENSEMBLES
REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE IDEA OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
021030...COASTAL AREAS...PATCHY FOG WITH VIS 0-5SM AND CIGS BASED
AROUND 200-300 FEET MSL WILL IMPACT KSAN AND VCNTY THROUGH 17Z. 30-
50% CHANCE OF THESE IMPACTS AT OTHER COASTAL AIRPORTS. MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO MORE UNIFORMLY COVER COASTAL AREAS
AFTER 04Z TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASES AND VIS WOULD RISE A LITTLE,
AROUND 400-700 FEET MSL WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VIS 1-5SM.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE
AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCAL VISIBILITY UNDER 1 NAUTICAL MILE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEACHES
SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET PEAKS TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUESDAY. A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDE THIS
MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS HIGH SURF TO PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW AND FLOODING, ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS, MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY, THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CHECK THE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON
THESE MULTIPLE HAZARDS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM
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