380
FXUS66 KSGX 271948
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1248 PM PDT MON APR 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN DRY AND WARMER
FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 12 PM, VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
RUNNING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SUNDAY FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS AND
UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE, WITH CONDITIONS WARMING EACH DAY. THE BIGGEST JUMP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TUESDAY 7
TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA ON TUESDAY
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA OR FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS (15 TO 20
PERCENT), WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK ALONG THE BORDER OF US/MEXICO WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING THE DESERTS AND DESERT SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH INTO BAJA MAY KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. RIGHT NOW THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT 50/50 WITH 50
PERCENT OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING A TRACK THAT WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TO THE DESERTS
AND 50 PERCENT ARE SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY. NBM
CHANCES OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDNG 0.10 INCHES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY EVENING ARE 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THE COAST,
VALLEYS, AND SAN DIEGO DESERTS AND LOCALLY UP TO 20 PERCENT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.
ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY, WITH ABOUT 40 PERCENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
INLAND AREAS, RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST TO THE 80S FOR
THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE US WEST COAST SUNDAY
OR MONDAY, BRINING COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIKELY AN INCREASE IN WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL TRACK.
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INCREASES OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHILE
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DECREASES THEM.
AVIATION
271745Z....COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED MOSTLY 3500-6000FT
MSL CURRENTLY. SCATTER OUT FROM COAST TOWARD VALLEYS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 3000-5000FT MSL MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
02-07 TUE, SCATTING OUT BY SUNRISE WITH FEW-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA
20,000FT MSL THEREAFTER.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
AREAS OF COASTAL FACING TERRAIN OBSCURED
IN CLOUDS AND FG THROUGH 21Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 25-35KTS, LOCALLY
TO 45KTS, WILL PICK UP AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z TUE. MOD
TO STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR PEAKS AND ON DESERT SLOPES.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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