827
FXUS66 KSTO 221006
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
206 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AS PER GOES-WEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE, CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS UNTIL AROUND 9 AM.
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY, WITH A 30 TO
60% CHANCE OF THE VALLEY SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 70
DEGREES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS SET TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY AS WELL BEFORE THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK SYSTEMS
BRING LIGHT, LOW IMPACT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.
BEGINNING THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BRING BETWEEN 0.45 TO 0.95 INCHES TO SHASTA COUNTY FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-80. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY PM INTO EARLY MONDAY, THE NEXT WAVE WILL
BRING LIGHTER AMOUNTS LATER THAT MORNING. FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE IN THE RANGE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.25 INCHES MAINLY
OVER SHASTA COUNTY, HOWEVER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY VENTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS NORTH OF I-80. OVERALL, IMPACTS WILL BE LITTLE
TO NONE, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS FURTHER NORTH IN SHASTA COUNTY
MAY SEE MINOR IMPACTS SUCH AS SLIPPERY ROADS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE AGENDA FOR MONDAY, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 30 MPH
IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE SIERRA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE NEXT, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST USHERING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY
/EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGY. THE NBM SHOWS A 55 TO 85 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES F THROUGHOUT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
RIDGING PERSISTS, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE A CHANCE AT 80
DEGREES OR HIGHER LATER NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 20 TO 40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, WITH UP TO 40% AROUND THE REDDING AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
BREEZY NORTH TO EAST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT TIMES.
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF MARCH, A FEW ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH MAY
BRING A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO THE SIERRA, SOUTH OF I-80.
AVIATION
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS DUE TO BR
UNTIL AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z-06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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