511  
FXUS66 KSTO 181018  
AFDSTO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA  
318 AM PDT SUN AUG 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.  
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE DELTA BREEZE INFLUENCE IS IN FULL FORCE AS EARLY MORNING  
TEMPERATURES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO UPPER 50S  
TO LOW 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES  
ALSO SUPPORT MARINE STRATUS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE DELTA REGION  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS. SOME OF THESE PROBABILITIES  
EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARD THE SACRAMENTO AREA. BUT WILL REMAIN  
SOMEWHAT CAUTIOUS WITH THIS OUTPUT GIVEN PREVIOUS INSTANCES OF  
BEING TOO ROBUST WITH THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. OTHERWISE,  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THIS  
EQUATES TO VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
TO START THE WORK WEEK, A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ENHANCE  
THE DELTA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE  
STRATUS DECKS. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MARINE LAYER  
BEING A BIT DEEPER THAN SUNDAY WITH A GREATER EASTWARD EXTENSION.  
MONDAY WILL SEEMINGLY BE A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH  
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE DELTA WITH 20-30 MPH SPEEDS LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED.  
 
MOVING BEYOND MONDAY, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LIFTS UP TOWARD WESTERN  
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE EVER PERSISTENT FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL  
EXPAND NORTH AND WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING  
SYNOPTIC HEIGHTS WILL RAISE VALLEY TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE  
MID/UPPER 90S WITH A SMATTERING OF TRIPLE DIGITS UP TOWARD REDDING  
AND RED BLUFF. THE PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECREASING DELTA  
INFLUENCES WHICH ALLOWS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO SIT ABOVE  
AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK. ~BRO  

 
   
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
 
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WARMEST DAY IS  
FORECAST TO BE THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE  
CENTURY MARK ACROSS INTERIOR CA. A VERY SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS  
THEN EXPECTED GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT BUILDS AGAIN THE  
FOLLOWING WEEK.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25-30  
KTS VICINITY CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND WEST DELTA. LOCAL SOUTHERLY WIND  
GUSTS 15-25 KTS 22Z-02Z MONDAY ELSEWHERE.  

 
   
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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