786  
AXUS75 KBOU 130615  
DGTBOU  
COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075-087-  
093-095-115-117-121-123-120000-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO  
1214 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2018  
 
...DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND EAST  
CENTRAL COLORADO PLAINS...  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE HELD FIRM OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN SEPTEMBER. THIS  
PROVIDED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER  
COLORADO CAUSING BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGED IN EARLY OCTOBER WITH THE  
AREA RECEIVING A WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION  
DURING THIS PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ERASED  
OR EVEN DECREASED LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST  
COLORADO.  
 
LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED...  
 
ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR; EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ CONTINUED IN  
SOUTHWEST GRAND, NORTHERN SUMMIT, AND WESTERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES  
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SEVERE DROUGHT  
/D2/ PERSISTED IN NORTHWEST PARK COUNTY, NORTHEAST GRAND, SOUTHEAST  
ELBERT AND SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTIES, AND INCREASED IN JACKSON  
COUNTY. MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ SPREAD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE  
INTO THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF BOULDER, LARIMER AND GILPIN COUNTIES AND  
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ELBERT COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS  
/D0/ SPREAD FARTHER NORTHEAST THE PAST MONTH ACROSS ADAMS, ARAPAHOE,  
MORGAN COUNTIES AND INTO PARTS OF WELD AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ON  
THE EASTERN PLAINS.  
 
IMPACTS...  
 
FROM THE NIDIS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DROUGHT SUMMARY ON OCTOBER 9TH:  
"THE HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN  
NOTABLE...VIC MODELED SOIL MOISTURE SHOWED SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT  
IN SOIL CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN COLORADO. LONG-TERM DEFICITS ARE  
STILL SUBSTANTIAL, AND LARGER WATER SUPPLIES REMAIN AT CONCERNING  
LEVELS, BUT THE IMMEDIATE RELIEF IS WELCOME. THE TIMING OF THIS TYPE  
OF EVENT FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF WINTER WHEAT  
CROPS. PLANTED IN LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER, MANY OF THE FIELDS  
WILL LIKELY BENEFIT FROM THIS MOISTURE, WHICH WILL AID IN THE  
GERMINATION OF THE FIELDS BEFORE THE EXTREME COLD OF WINTER ARRIVES."  
 
WATER SUPPLY...  
 
IT IS EXTREMELY EARLY, ONLY 12 DAYS INTO THE 2019 WATER YEAR, BUT  
THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK GOT OFF TO A GREAT START. THE SNOTEL SNOWPACK  
WAS 419 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN SOUTH PLATTE BASIN, AND 497 PERCENT OF  
NORMAL IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ON OCTOBER 12TH.  
 
RESERVOIR STORAGE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 100% OF AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH  
PLATTE BASIN, AND 90% OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN  
AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.  
 
THERE WAS A GOOD HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION,  
WITH A BUMP IN STREAMFLOWS. ON OCTOBER 12TH, ONLY A QUARTER OF THE  
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STREAM GAGES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
COLORADO WERE RECORDING MUCH BELOW TO RECORD LOW FLOWS, HALF AS MANY  
AS THE PREVIOUS MONTH.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
 
PRELIMINARY 30 DAY COOPERATIVE OBSERVER PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM  
SEPTEMBER 12TH THROUGH OCTOBER 11TH ARE LISTED BELOW:  
 
LOCATION ELEV 2018 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL  
-------- ---- ---- ------ --------- --------  
ABOVE 8000 FEET  
DILLON 1E 9065 0.87 1.17 -0.30 74  
GEORGETOWN 8520 0.88 1.44 -0.56 61  
GRANT 8675 0.90 1.16 -0.26 78  
WALDEN 8056 1.69 1.27 0.42 133  
WINTER PARK 9108 0.93 1.79 -0.86 52  
 
6000 TO 8000 FEET  
BAILEY 7752 0.71 1.07 -0.36 66  
CHEESMAN RESERVOIR 6880 0.63 1.00 -0.37 63  
CONIFER 6NE 7180 1.15 1.50 -0.35 77  
ESTES PARK 7785 0.67 1.21 -0.54 55  
EVERGREEN 6985 0.93 1.36 -0.43 68  
VIRGINIA DALE 7ENE 7015 0.98 1.41 -0.43 70  
WILLIAMS FORK RSVR 7618 1.31 1.44 -0.13 91  
 
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR  
BOULDER 5484 1.73 1.70 0.03 102  
DENVER AREA 5284 0.76 0.98 -0.22 78  
FORT COLLINS 5004 0.97 1.26 -0.29 77  
LAKEWOOD 5640 1.13 1.15 -0.02 98  
LOVELAND 2N 5080 0.68 1.27 -0.59 54  
NORTHGLENN 5407 1.06 0.96 0.10 110  
 
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL COLORADO PLAINS  
AKRON 4E 4540 0.98 1.03 -0.05 95  
BYERS 5ENE 5100 1.10 0.92 0.18 120  
HOLYOKE 3780 1.02 1.29 -0.27 79  
HUGO 5025 0.85 0.96 -0.11 89  
KARVAL 5075 0.94 0.87 0.07 108  
LEROY 5WSW 4550 1.01 1.23 -0.22 82  
LINDON 5WNW 4851 1.51 0.83 0.68 182  
SEDGWICK 5S 3990 1.62 1.35 0.27 120  
WOODROW 6NNE 4374 1.08 1.18 -0.10 92  
 
PRELIMINARY 90 DAY COOPERATIVE OBSERVER PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM  
JULY 14TH THROUGH OCTOBER 11TH ARE LISTED BELOW:  
 
LOCATION COUNTY 2018 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL  
-------- ------ ---- ------ --------- --------  
ABOVE 8000 FEET  
DILLON 1E SUMMIT 2.90 4.94 -2.04 59  
GEORGETOWN CLEAR CK 2.80 5.80 -3.00 48  
GRANT PARK 3.16 5.94 -2.78 53  
WALDEN JACKSON 3.99 3.89 0.10 103  
WINTER PARK GRAND 3.84 5.95 -2.11 65  
 
6000 TO 8000 FEET  
BAILEY PARK 4.97 6.34 -1.37 78  
CHEESMAN RESVR DOUGLAS 4.50 6.16 -1.66 73  
CONIFER 6NE JEFFERSON 8.41 6.28 2.13 134  
ESTES PARK LARIMER 3.49 5.16 -1.67 68  
EVERGREEN JEFFERSON 4.14 5.86 -1.72 71  
VIRGINIA DALE 7ENE LARIMER 4.70 5.23 -0.53 90  
WILLIAMS FORK RSVR GRAND 3.21 4.66 -1.45 69  
 
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR  
BOULDER BOULDER 4.53 5.24 -0.71 86  
DENVER AREA DENVER 2.78 4.44 -1.66 63  
FORT COLLINS LARIMER 2.65 4.50 -1.85 59  
LAKEWOOD JEFFERSON 5.60 4.69 0.91 119  
LOVELAND LARIMER 2.48 4.18 -1.70 59  
NORTHGLENN ADAMS 4.18 4.12 0.06 101  
 
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL COLORADO PLAINS  
AKRON 4E WASHINGTON 2.51 5.71 -3.20 44  
BYERS 5ENE ADAMS 5.02 4.91 0.11 102  
HOLYOKE PHILLIPS 3.85 5.74 -1.89 67  
HUGO LINCOLN 6.71 6.22 0.49 108  
KARVAL LINCOLN 6.58 5.39 1.19 122  
LEROY 5WSW LOGAN 10.23 6.00 4.23 171  
LINDON 5WNW WASHINGTON 8.76 5.29 3.47 166  
SEDGWICK 5S SEDGWICK 5.65 5.78 -0.13 98  
WOODROW 6NNE MORGAN 5.49 5.83 -0.34 94  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...  
 
THE ONE AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS CALL FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 50 TO 55% CHANCE OF EL  
NINO THIS FALL; INCREASING TO 65% TO 70% CHANCE THIS WINTER.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESSES:  
 
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOU  
 
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU  
 
COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DROUGHT EARLY WARNING  
SYSTEM: CLIMATE.COLOSTATE.EDU/~DROUGHT/  
 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS:  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
CWCB WATER AVAILABILITY TASK FORCE PRESENTATIONS:  
CWCB.STATE.CO.US/PUBLIC-INFORMATION/FLOOD-WATER-AVAILABILITY-TASK-  
FORCES/  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS,  
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION  
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS  
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS, THE NATURAL  
RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE SNOTEL NETWORK, U.S. GEOLOGICAL  
SURVEY, U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION AND U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS  
STREAM AND RESERVOIR GAGES.  
 

 
TLH  
 
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