307  
FNUS75 KBOU 181432  
FWSBOU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYNE GULCH PILES...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
730 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2020  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH  
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW  
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY. A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY  
SHOULD HELP LOFT SMOKE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID  
AFTERNOON HOURS, AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A  
FEW HOURS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1700, THEN MOSTLY  
CLOUDY(60-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL  
0800.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN  
SOUTHEAST 4-5 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800, THEN 4300 FT AGL  
UNTIL 1700, THEN 1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-15 MPH UNTIL 1700, THEN SOUTHEAST  
8-9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400, THEN  
POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........56 50 44 38 39 39 39 42 49 56 63  
WEATHER COV.....SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....SN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 0  
TEMP............11 13 16 19 22 24 26 27 26 23 18  
RH..............66 63 58 54 49 50 46 48 52 59 73  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.1 3.1 3.9 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.1 1.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW W W W SW SW S SW SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 9  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 7 28 39 46 49 46 39 33 28 7  
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P F F F P P P P  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 0200, THEN PARTLY  
CLOUDY(50-60%).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 12.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900, THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL  
UNTIL 0500, THEN 1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-11 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN WEST 8-15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........62 63 65 65 66 65 66 62 57 55 54 55  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12  
RH..............80 84 80 76 73 73 70 63 55 53 50 48  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S SW SW SW SW W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 12 7 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 8 8 12 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 10 11 10 11 13 13 15 15 13 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9  
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0800, THEN MOSTLY  
CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-5 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN  
NORTHEAST 6-7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8-13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........56 58 60 65 67 71 77 86 91 92 94 90  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN SN SN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 30  
TEMP............13 16 19 22 24 26 26 25 24 23 21 20  
RH..............50 51 51 52 50 50 55 60 65 68 68 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SE E E E E E NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW S S SE E E NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.11 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 7 6 11 17 25 23 21 18 17 16 15  
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
 
   
THURSDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS AROUND 30.  
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
 
NOT AS COOL. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND  
40. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 30S.    
MONDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS  
AROUND 30.  
 

 
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH  
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KERSTIENS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2001554.11/BOU  
.DELDT 02/18/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL KYLE.KERSTIENS@USDA.GOV  
 
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