307
FNUS75 KBOU 181432
FWSBOU
SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYNE GULCH PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
730 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2020
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
FLURRIES EARLY IN THE DAY. A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY
SHOULD HELP LOFT SMOKE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1700, THEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY(60-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL
0800.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.
MIN HUMIDITY........46%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN
SOUTHEAST 4-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800, THEN 4300 FT AGL
UNTIL 1700, THEN 1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-15 MPH UNTIL 1700, THEN SOUTHEAST
8-9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400, THEN
POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 50 44 38 39 39 39 42 49 56 63
WEATHER COV.....SCH
WEATHER TYPE....SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 0
TEMP............11 13 16 19 22 24 26 27 26 23 18
RH..............66 63 58 54 49 50 46 48 52 59 73
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.1 3.1 3.9 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.1 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW W W W SW SW S SW SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 9
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 7 28 39 46 49 46 39 33 28 7
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P F F F P P P P
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 0200, THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY(50-60%).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 12.
MAX HUMIDITY........84%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900, THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL
UNTIL 0500, THEN 1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-11 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN WEST 8-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........62 63 65 65 66 65 66 62 57 55 54 55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12
RH..............80 84 80 76 73 73 70 63 55 53 50 48
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S SW SW SW SW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 12 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST. 8 8 12 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 10 11 10 11 13 13 15 15 13 13
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 9
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0800, THEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.
MIN HUMIDITY........48%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-5 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN
NORTHEAST 6-7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8-13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 58 60 65 67 71 77 86 91 92 94 90
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 30
TEMP............13 16 19 22 24 26 26 25 24 23 21 20
RH..............50 51 51 52 50 50 55 60 65 68 68 64
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SE E E E E E NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST. 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW S S SE E E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.11 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 7 6 11 17 25 23 21 18 17 16 15
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS AROUND 30.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FRIDAY
NOT AS COOL. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND
40. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS
AROUND 30.
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KERSTIENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2001554.11/BOU
.DELDT 02/18/20
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
.EMAIL KYLE.KERSTIENS@USDA.GOV
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