462
FNUS75 KBOU 071036
FWSBOU
SPOT FORECAST FOR OBRIEN 2 RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
436 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW HUMIDITY RECOVERY THIS MORNING AT ~70% FOR
THE AVERAGE ELEVATION OF THE BURN, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER (45-55%)
HUMIDITY TOWARDS THE TOP AND ABOVE THE BURN AREA DUE TO AN INVERSION
LAYER. WINDS WILL START OUT VERY LIGHT (<5 MPH) AND VARIABLE,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAIN IS NEAR ZERO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (20%) FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE AREA, MAINLY
BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AND NEAR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 20%, AND SMOKE DISPERSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITIES MAY RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER, IN THE 15-20% RANGE. WHILE THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER (15%
CHANCE), AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE GOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...15 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1200, THEN SOUTH 5
TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000, THEN 1900 FT AGL
UNTIL 1100, THEN 5700 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN
9800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700, THEN 5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN LIGHT
UNTIL 1100, THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL
1200, THEN SOUTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200, THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700, THEN
FAIR.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........16 15 14 15 26 34 42 36 45 39
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20
TEMP............42 48 58 63 68 69 70 71 69 67
RH..............70 63 42 32 24 21 21 21 22 25
20 FT WIND DIR..W NW N E S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 6 6 7 8 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 8 12 13 14 15 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.9 5.7 8.9 11 10 10 8.1 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NE SE S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 11 40 62 74 84 90 81 57
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P G G G G G F
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2000, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN
NORTHWEST UNTIL 2100, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH UNTIL 2400, THEN VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL
0100, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0200,
THEN VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL 0300, THEN
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 0500, THEN VARIABLE
UP TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900, THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN SOUTHWEST
UNTIL 2100, THEN 8 TO 11 MPH UNTIL 0100, THEN 8
TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........41 46 52 43 41 31 29 26 24 15 11 8
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 59 55 52 49 48 46 45 44 43 41 41
RH..............30 37 45 54 61 63 68 68 70 73 76 76
20 FT WIND DIR..S S NW SW SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 3 5 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.17 14 12 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW S S SW SW W W W SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..22 6 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P P P P P P P P
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 1400, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................4 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 0800, THEN
WEST UNTIL 1300, THEN SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH
UNTIL 1600, THEN SOUTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9500 FT AGL AFTER
1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN
GOOD UNTIL 1500, THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600,
THEN GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........6 9 6 5 4 7 13 25 31 32 39 31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............41 40 42 49 58 64 68 69 70 71 69 66
RH..............73 76 76 58 42 31 25 22 20 20 21 27
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W W SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 2.1 5.2 8.2 9.2 10 10 8.7 8.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW W W W W W W W SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 12 12 10 10 10 12 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 4 8 21 52 74 83 90 102 78 73
SMOKEDISPERSION.P P P P P F G G G VG G G
FORECASTER...APONTE
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL WICKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623255.0/BOU
.DELDT 10/07/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MICHAEL.T.WICKS@USDA.GOV,CHAD.BLAKE@USDA.GOV
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