412  
FNUS75 KBOU 201257  
FWSBOU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER MOUNTAIN EAST...NPS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
557 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON FEBRUARY 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THERE WILL BE BETTER MIXING TODAY WITH A WARMER, DRIER  
AIRMASS AND MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THURSDAY WILL HAVE  
LIGHTER WINDS BUT STILL FAIRLKY DEEP MIXING, AND MORE CLOUD COVER.  
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY, BUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1600, THEN MOSTLY  
CLOUDY(60-65%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-20 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH UNTIL 1200,  
THEN GUSTS TO 30 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL RISING TO 5000 FT AGL BY 1200.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 MPH DECREASING TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0800, THEN VERY GOOD.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 1900, THEN PARTLY  
CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0100, THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 6 ABOVE.  
MAX HUMIDITY........63%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH UNTIL 2200, THEN WEST  
4-10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL LOWERING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 2200.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH UNTIL 2300, THEN SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100, THEN POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER  
1100.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0800, THEN NORTH UNTIL  
1100, THEN EAST.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL RISING TO 5000 FT AGL BY 1200.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS AROUND 30. SOUTH WINDS  
4-8 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS  
10-20 MPH.  
 
FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DEER MOUNTAIN EAST.  
 
+++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE  
FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM  
INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++  
 
FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 15KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV  
VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG  
MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT  
 
02/20-10 43 41 18 12 48 W 17 28 2 1 4158 W 36128829 V  
02/20-11 41 27 7 16 42 W 18 30 2 1 4510 W 32128128 V  
02/20-12 44 27 7 20 37 W 17 28 2 1 4824 W 30127113 V  
02/20-13 48 27 7 22 36 W 16 25 2 1 5137 W 28124809 V  
02/20-14 52 26 6 23 36 WSW 17 28 2 1 5450 W 25121217 V  
02/20-15 58 25 5 23 36 WSW 15 24 2 1 5215 W 24109212 V  
02/20-16 63 25 5 22 38 WSW 14 22 2 1 4980 W 23 97818 G  
02/20-17 65 12 2 20 39 WSW 10 16 2 1 4745 W 21 87034 G  
02/20-18 62 12 2 18 41 WSW 9 15 2 1 4167 W 20 70636 G  
02/20-19 55 12 2 16 44 WSW 9 15 2 1 3589 W 18 55846 F  
02/20-20 52 12 2 14 46 WSW 8 13 2 1 3011 WSW 16 42663 F  
02/20-21 51 12 2 12 48 WSW 7 7 2 1 2432 WSW 15 31088 P  
02/20-22 50 12 2 11 50 WSW 7 7 2 1 1854 WSW 13 21120 P  
02/20-23 49 5 1 9 52 WSW 7 7 2 1 1276 WSW 12 12474 P  
02/21-00 58 5 1 9 52 W 6 6 2 1 1373 WSW 10 12130 P  
02/21-01 67 5 1 8 55 W 5 5 2 1 1471 WSW 9 11603 P  
02/21-02 71 5 1 8 55 W 5 5 2 1 1568 SW 8 10891 P  
02/21-03 70 5 1 8 55 WNW 3 3 2 1 1587 SW 7 10049 P  
02/21-04 66 5 1 7 57 W 3 3 2 1 1605 S 7 9097 P  
02/21-05 66 14 3 6 60 WSW 5 5 2 1 1624 S 6 8120 P  
02/21-06 65 14 3 7 63 W 3 5 2 1 1645 SSE 6 7678 P  
02/21-07 64 14 3 8 60 WNW 2 5 2 1 1667 SSE 5 7222 P  
02/21-08 63 14 3 10 58 NW 2 5 2 1 1688 SE 5 6752 P  
02/21-09 62 14 3 15 51 N 3 6 2 1 2812 SSE 7 17807 P  
02/21-10 61 14 3 20 43 ENE 5 6 3 1 3935 S 10 34106 P  
02/21-11 60 34 13 24 38 ESE 6 7 3 1 5059 S 13 55649 F  
02/21-12 70 34 13 26 37 ESE 7 7 3 1 5538 S 12 57226 F  
02/21-13 80 34 13 26 37 E 7 7 3 1 6017 SSW 12 58164 F  
02/21-14 90 34 13 25 41 E 7 7 3 1 6496 SSW 10 58464 F  
02/21-15 90 34 13 23 42 E 7 7 3 1 5191 S 9 41531 F  
02/21-16 89 34 13 21 46 E 7 7 3 1 3887 SSE 8 27207 P  
02/21-17 90 70 53 19 54 E 7 9 3 1 2582 SE 7 15492 P  
02/21-18 90 70 53 19 61 E 7 9 3 1 2307 SE 7 13840 P  
02/21-19 91 70 53 17 67 ESE 6 9 2 1 2031 ESE 7 12188 P  
02/21-20 91 70 53 16 70 ESE 6 9 2 1 1756 ESE 7 10536 P  
02/21-21 90 70 53 15 70 ESE 6 9 2 1 1747 SE 8 11644 P  
02/21-22 89 70 53 14 73 SE 6 10 2 1 1737 SE 8 12740 P  
02/21-23 88 56 32 13 73 SE 6 10 2 1 1728 SSE 9 13824 P  
02/22-00 88 56 32 12 76 SSE 6 10 2 1 1563 SSE 8 11462 P  
02/22-01 88 56 32 12 76 SSW 6 9 2 1 1398 SSW 8 9320 P  
02/22-02 88 56 32 11 80 SW 6 9 2 1 1233 SW 7 7398 P  
02/22-03 87 56 32 11 80 SW 6 9 2 1 1205 SW 7 7630 P  
02/22-04 84 56 32 11 76 SW 6 9 2 1 1176 SW 8 7842 P  
02/22-05 83 51 27 11 76 SW 6 9 2 1 1148 WSW 8 8036 P  
02/22-06 82 51 27 12 73 SW 6 9 2 1 1333 WSW 10 11550 P  
02/22-07 79 51 27 13 70 WSW 6 10 3 1 1517 SW 12 15679 P  
02/22-08 78 51 27 16 64 WSW 6 10 3 1 1702 SW 14 20424 P  
02/22-09 78 51 27 20 56 SW 6 10 3 1 4021 SW 17 61650 G  
02/22-10 77 51 27 24 50 SSW 6 10 3 1 6339 SW 22118334 V  
02/22-11 77 50 26 28 44 SSW 6 10 3 1 8658 SW 25190476 E  
02/22-12 79 50 26 30 42 SSW 6 9 3 1 9009 WSW 23180173 E  
02/22-13 84 50 26 30 42 SSW 6 9 4 1 9359 WSW 21168468 E  
02/22-14 86 50 26 29 44 SW 6 8 4 1 9710 WSW 18155360 E  
02/22-15 87 50 26 27 48 WSW 6 8 4 1 8095 W 14 99834 G  
02/22-16 88 50 26 25 52 W 5 8 3 1 6479 WNW 10 56154 F  
02/22-17 88 53 28 23 57 WNW 5 8 3 1 4864 WNW 6 24320 P  
02/22-18 89 53 28 21 62 WNW 5 8 3 1 4191 WNW 6 22350 P  
02/22-19 92 53 28 19 67 W 5 7 3 1 3517 WNW 7 19932 P  
02/22-20 93 53 28 18 70 W 5 7 3 1 2844 W 7 17064 P  
02/22-21 92 53 28 18 67 W 6 7 3 1 2684 W 8 19685 P  
02/22-22 89 53 28 18 64 W 6 8 2 1 2525 W 10 21880 P  
02/22-23 88 29 8 17 64 W 7 9 2 1 2365 W 12 23650 P  
02/23-00 83 29 8 15 67 W 8 10 2 1 2124 W 14 25628 P  
02/23-01 72 29 8 13 70 W 8 10 2 1 1884 W 16 26612 P  
02/23-02 66 29 8 11 73 W 9 12 2 1 1643 W 18 26603 P  
02/23-03 63 29 8 9 76 W 10 13 2 1 1681 W 20 29286 P  
02/23-04 57 29 8 9 69 W 10 15 2 1 1719 W 22 32064 P  
02/23-05 54 12 2 10 63 W 12 16 2 1 1758 W 23 34935 P  
 
KEY:  
 
FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST  
VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/  
SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/  
PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/  
WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/  
AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/  
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/  
20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/  
GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/  
HI - HAINES INDEX  
LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL  
15KFT WIND - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/  
MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/  
TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/  
VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/  
AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING  
P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD  
V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT  
 

 
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD  
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTOPHER KOPEK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1901082.5/BOU  
 
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