266
FNUS75 KGJT 151029
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR OAK FIRE...CO DFPC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 MDT ON AUGUST 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COOLER, WETTER PATTERN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
TODAY LIFTING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE FIRE OVER 20%.
THIS BRINGS WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN TODAY
BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY. NEARBY STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS, WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE THE GREATEST CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11200 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 16 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...40 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR (6000 KNOT-FT)
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...35 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (28000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...KATHRYN ABBOTT
REQUESTED BY...LOGAN DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519692.6/GJT
.DELDT 08/15/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KMACHT@PAGOSAFIRE.COM,RVEGA@ARCHULETACOUNTY.ORG,LOGAN.DAVIS@STATE.CO.US
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