143  
FNUS75 KPUB 241241  
FWSPUB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAVANO RX - DRY LAKE UNIT...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
641 AM MDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AFTER A FEW STRAY MORNING SHOWERS, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME  
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. BRISK WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST, WITH THE  
PEAK WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 0900 AND 1400. WINDS SHOULD THEN  
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVE.  
UNFORTUNATELY TONIGHT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO CLIMB  
INTO THE 65-70% RANGE.  
 
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TOMORROW, WITH  
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 4-6 MPH GUSTING TO 12 MPH UNTIL 0900, THEN  
WEST 8-10 MPH GUSTING TO 18-20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........17 13 4 15  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............43 48 52 51  
RH..............47 38 33 31  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..21 17 16 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.30 29 28 24  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 3500 4500 4500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 33 W 31 W 28 W 21  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100077 100 104 83  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-9 MPH, OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........26 11 25 32 30 60  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............44 37 33 33 32 32  
RH..............39 52 64 66 69 69  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 9 8 7 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 14 13 13 12 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 1000 500 1000 500 500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 12 W 10 W 14 W 16 W 13  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100031 8 6 9 10 7  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-10 MPH. GUSTS 15-20 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100, THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200, THEN  
GOOD.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........31 27 22 11 8 8  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............32 34 54 60 63 62  
RH..............72 69 32 27 24 24  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 10 12 14 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 18 21 23 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 500 2000 4000 4500 3500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 W 12 SW 15 SW 22 S 28 S 26  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/10009 6 24 73 110 83  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
TUESDAY
 
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS 32 TO 37. HIGHS 47 TO 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
10-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS 19 TO 24. HIGHS 43 TO 48.  
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 20 TO 25. HIGHS 52 TO 57. WEST WINDS 6-10 MPH.  
OCCASIONAL MORNING GUSTS 15-20 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...MOORE  
REQUESTED BY...NICK OSTROM  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119944.2/PUB  
.DELDT 10/24/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.24  
 
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