125
FNUS75 KPUB 172014
FWSPUB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHARPE FIRE...BACA COUNTY OEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
214 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY
DISCUSSION
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SOME MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERY AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BY NOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW AND EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO THE PDS (PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION)
CRITERIA (55 MPH OR GREATER FOR 3 HOURS). FOR NOW, ALL MODEL SIMULATIONS
KEEP GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OR LESS BUT REGARDLESS, EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
BE LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FIRE AREA BETWEEN 7-8 PM BRINGING A STRONG
NORTH WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BUT BETTER HUMIDITY RECOVERY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, BUT TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AS WE KEEP A MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........3-6 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
TIME (MDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1 1 2 2
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....BDT BDT BDT BDT
TSTM COV........
TEMP............90 91 90 89
RH..............7 6 6 6
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..26 29 29 29
20 FT WIND GUST.38 41 41 41
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.16 17 17 17
EYE LVL WND GST.23 25 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...15 15 15 14
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.33 35 37 36
SDSPL KT-FT/1000414 446 475 431
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50%) BY 5 AM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51F.
MAX HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 2000, THEN WEST 15-25
MPH UNTIL 2400, THEN NORTH 10-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900, THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 0100. NORTH
AROUND 13 MPH AFTER 0400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900, THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000,
THEN POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2 14 19 29 33 38 42 43 43 44 46 48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............90 87 80 76 70 67 63 61 58 56 54 53
RH..............6 7 8 9 12 17 24 30 34 40 48 59
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..28 28 28 16 16 16 10 8 8 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.40 40 40 26 26 26 20 20 20 18 18 18
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW W W W N N N N N N
EYE LVL WND SPD.17 17 17 10 10 10 4 4 4 6 6 6
EYE LVL WND GST.24 24 24 16 16 16 12 12 12 11 11 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...13 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.33 29 22 20 17 16 17 16 13 13 13 13
SDSPL KT-FT/1000364 56 13 11 9 7 8 8 7 9 12 7
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY(26 PERCENT). AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87F.
MIN HUMIDITY........3-8 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL
0900, THEN SOUTH 15-30 MPH UNTIL 1200, THEN
SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100, THEN 11500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 11 MPH UNTIL 0900, THEN SOUTH
AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 1200, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND
32 MPH UNTIL 1400, THEN AROUND 39 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........51 44 37 30 21 11 2 3 3 4 4 4
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY ARS PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE.... BDT BDT BDT BDT BDT BDT
TSTM COV........
TEMP............51 54 61 67 71 76 80 82 85 87 86 84
RH..............66 64 51 42 29 20 14 11 9 8 9 11
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 22 22 22 32 32 32 32 32 32
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 31 31 31 46 46 46 45 45 45
EYE LVL WND DIR.NE NE NE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.6 6 6 13 13 13 19 19 19 19 19 19
EYE LVL WND GST.9 9 9 19 19 19 28 28 28 27 27 27
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 11 12 12 12
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 10 12 15 22 30 35 43 44 40 36
SDSPL KT-FT/100010 17 19 22 47 110 199 275 408 452 419 349
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...RILEY FRAZEE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613877.0/PUB
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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