246  
FNUS75 KPUB 191927  
FWSPUB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLUME CREEK RX...USDA FS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
127 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION TODAY,  
AND AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD IS FROM THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER CHANCES  
INCREASE AROUND 1500 AND WILL EXIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WEAK, WITH GUST AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING  
THE PRIMARY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BURN VICINITY  
BEING THE PRIMARY RISK. TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SO  
WILL THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, MEANING THE AIR WILL BE DRIER BEHIND  
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.  
 
AS FOR THE ADDITIONAL REQUESTED INFORMATION FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH,  
AS A FOREWARNING, THE FINE DETAILS NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN  
OF SALT, THE FORECAST IS TOO FAR OUT FOR ACCURATE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY  
AROUND THE TWIN LAKES REGION. NEVERTHELESS, BOTH OF THE MORE RELIABLE  
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS (AMERICAN MODEL) HAS  
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN THE  
EUROPEAN MODEL. THE QUICKER MOVING EUROPEAN MODEL MEANS THAT COLDER  
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THE 24TH AND  
THE 25TH. THE GFS MODEL DELAYS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN  
UNTIL THE NIGHT OF THE 25TH. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KNOW THAT THE  
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE BURN SITE,  
BUT IT IS STRONGLY ADVISED TO CHECK BACK ONCE THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY  
IN THE FORECAST.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400,  
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100, THEN 2 UNTIL 2400, THEN 1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WIND. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000, THEN POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 0700, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY(32  
PERCENT).  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WIND UNTIL 1200, THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 9  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000, THEN 9500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 26 THROUGH TUESDAY OCTOBER 02
 
 

 
FORECASTER...SKELLY  
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MARKALUNAS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1815846.2/PUB  
.DELDT 09/19/18  
 
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