215
FNUS75 KPUB 211119
FWSPUB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHARPE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
519 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-70S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA. IN THE MORNING, SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. RH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 45-50 PERCENT.
SOME WEAK, LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT IN THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY. GENERALLY, THESE WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT BESIDES
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND THE OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW GUST. IF A
STRONGER SHOWER LINGER NEARBY, OUTFLOW COULD REACH CLOSER TO THE 30
MPH RANGE, BUT MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 20 MPH.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM JUST EAST OF I-
25, MAINLY IN EASTERN PUEBLO, OTERO, AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH
LATEST MODELS PUSHING THEM INTO BACA COUNTY SOMETIME BETWEEN 4-6 PM.
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, OUTFLOW WINDS 60-70 MPH, AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WILL
OVERALL BE WEAKER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. EVEN SO, ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND LIGHTNING.
RH RECOVERS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-40S. FOR FRIDAY, EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-70S, BREEZY EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF THE FIRE DURING THE
DAY, BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200, THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74F.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 16-20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1500GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1600.
TIME (MDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A
SKY (%).........85 82 87 93 82 87 76 72 51 51 78 77
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............52 51 54 59 61 62 66 69 71 73 71 69
RH..............99 100 99 83 78 75 63 58 51 45 49 52
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 15 15 15 18 18 18 20 20 20
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 24 24 24 29 29 29 30 30 30
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.8 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 12 12 12
EYE LVL WND GST.11 11 11 14 14 14 17 17 17 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 13 13 14 16 17 18 20 22 24 22
SDSPL KT-FT/100014 16 19 20 29 47 56 67 84 111 142 104
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(61 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY(44 PERCENT) UNTIL 0200, THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY(55 PERCENT) UNTIL 0500, THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY(30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47F.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 13-17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900, THEN POOR.
TIME (MDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
SKY (%).........71 70 67 54 51 53 40 49 59 58 51 30
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH
TEMP............68 63 60 58 56 55 55 54 53 52 51 50
RH..............54 64 75 81 93 93 93 100 100 100 100 99
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..17 17 17 16 16 16 14 14 14 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.26 26 26 25 25 25 21 21 21 20 20 20
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8
EYE LVL WND GST.16 16 16 15 15 15 13 13 13 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 18 22 22 22 22 21 20 17 16 15
SDSPL KT-FT/100048 27 12 18 19 17 17 13 14 13 11 10
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(32 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 21-25 MPH UNTIL 1200, THEN
NORTHEAST 16-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 0700, THEN NORTH
AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 1500, THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 1000.
TIME (MDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A
SKY (%).........29 42 56 23 18 23 15 19 14 9 24 33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48 51 54 57 61 63 64 67 69 70 71 70
RH..............100 96 83 68 57 52 46 40 36 34 33 33
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..23 23 23 25 25 25 20 20 20 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.32 32 32 35 35 35 29 29 29 25 25 25
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
EYE LVL WND SPD.14 14 14 15 15 15 12 12 12 9 9 9
EYE LVL WND GST.19 19 19 21 21 21 17 17 17 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.5 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW NW N N N N N N N NE NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 17 22 24 24 22 20 17 16 15 15 14
SDSPL KT-FT/10008 20 48 66 78 77 80 68 74 76 73 68
FORECASTER...GARBEROGLIO
REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM GRIPP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614189.0/PUB
.DELDT 05/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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