246
FNUS75 KPUB 191927
FWSPUB
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLUME CREEK RX...USDA FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
127 PM MDT WED SEP 19 2018
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (719) 948-9429, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION TODAY,
AND AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD IS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE AROUND 1500 AND WILL EXIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WEAK, WITH GUST AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BURN VICINITY
BEING THE PRIMARY RISK. TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SO
WILL THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, MEANING THE AIR WILL BE DRIER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE ADDITIONAL REQUESTED INFORMATION FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH,
AS A FOREWARNING, THE FINE DETAILS NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN
OF SALT, THE FORECAST IS TOO FAR OUT FOR ACCURATE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN LAKES REGION. NEVERTHELESS, BOTH OF THE MORE RELIABLE
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS (AMERICAN MODEL) HAS
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
EUROPEAN MODEL. THE QUICKER MOVING EUROPEAN MODEL MEANS THAT COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THE 24TH AND
THE 25TH. THE GFS MODEL DELAYS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN
UNTIL THE NIGHT OF THE 25TH. THE BEST THING TO DO IS KNOW THAT THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE BURN SITE,
BUT IT IS STRONGLY ADVISED TO CHECK BACK ONCE THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400,
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100, THEN 2 UNTIL 2400, THEN 1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43F.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WIND. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000, THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 0700, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY(32
PERCENT).
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WIND UNTIL 1200, THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 9
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000, THEN 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 26 THROUGH TUESDAY OCTOBER 02
FORECASTER...SKELLY
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MARKALUNAS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1815846.2/PUB
.DELDT 09/19/18
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