638
FXUS65 KBOU 301127
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
427 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WEAK FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL USHER IN SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THERE WILL BE A SHALLOW LAYER OF TRAPPED MOISTURE,
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK WARMUP WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW
INVERSIONS, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE INTRUSION OF A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST TO LAST WEEKEND'S ARCTIC COLD,
WE'LL BE ON THE VERY WESTERN EXTENT AND THUS ONLY LOOK FOR A BRIEF
COLD STRETCH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO WORK BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS,
OFFERING UP A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (DUSTING TO 1") OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND JUST A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WE WERE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS KNOWING SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSIONS CAN BE
SLOWER TO MIX OUT, ESPECIALLY IF WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL SUPPORT STRONG RIDGING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 60F LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS.
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE'S A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, THE CHANCES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE LOW (<20%). WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW,
BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT TROUGH'S DISTURBANCE, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANOTHER RETURN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD START BY THURSDAY AND LIKELY EXTEND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS YET ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CURRENT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO W AND
THEN NW WINDS THROUGH 19Z. KBJC IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN UNDER
LIGHT W/NW WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY (21-22Z), A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF NE WINDS AT LEAST TO AREAS EAST OF I-25 (I.E.
KDEN/KAPA), WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS ITS ABILITY TO
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT KBJC. EITHER WAY, WIND DIRECTION
AT KBJC SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE PAST ~23-00Z. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE PATTERNS IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT SCT TO AT TIMES BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT, WITH BASES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 080. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A DECK OF LOWER
STRATUS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NORTH OF KDEN ACROSS WELD COUNTY, BUT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
FORECAST DRAINAGE FLOW. NONETHELESS, WORTH KEEPING ON EYE AN ANY
MODEL TRENDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...BRQ
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