413
FXUS65 KBOU 010702
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1202 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER SUNDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS (LIMITED
IMPACTS).
- WARM AND DRY MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW-ELEVATION RAIN LIKELY (>70% CHANCE) MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING, FAVORING AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF
I-70.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, WITH QPF TOTALS
AROUND 4 TENTHS OR LESS. AND WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET, AND SNOW RATIOS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 5 INCHES (WITH MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE TRACE TO 3 INCH
RANGE). AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS HIGH HELPED
PUSH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL KEEP WINDS MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT AND
SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY, WITH 700MB TEMPS INCREASING AROUND 5 DEGREES.
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. AREAS
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 30MPH. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE. THE BREEZY WINDS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
(PALMER DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY AREA). THEN ON TUESDAY WE
FINALLY GET THE PATTERN CHANGE WE'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR. A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY, BRINGING US THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES OF THE WEEK. WE'LL SEE STRONG LIFT AND GOOD
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AROUND A TENTH TO THREE TENTHS FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THINGS COULD GET UNSTABLE
ENOUGH THAT WE SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS THAT DO SEE A STORM
COULD SEE THOSE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS AROUND 2 TO 7 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. SOME OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS KEEP THE PLAINS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY,
WHILE OTHER MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS GIVE THE PLAINS A
FEW MORE TENTHS OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW. IF
WE CAN GET THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM CLOSER TO THE AREA AND DRAG A
STRONGER FRONT THROUGH WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE (ALLOWING SOME SNOW) AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER
END OF GUIDANCE (A FEW TENTHS). RIGHT NOW, HOWEVER, THE MOST
LIKELY QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS ARE AROUND A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH. THE SNOW OUTLOOK FOR THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS PRETTY
PROMISING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
LARGEST TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH, BUT YOU SHOULD EXPECT WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT DEN WILL TURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AT DEN BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AROUND MIDDAY. BJC AND APA WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS
ALL DAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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