852
FXUS65 KBOU 091102
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
502 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AND COOLER WEATHER FAVORED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FOR TODAY, DRIER IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNNG. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGHS FINALLY DROP BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
BY TONIGHT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRING
SOME NOCTURNAL TSTMS, TO PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT DATA STILL KEEPS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO, WITH
SRN LINCOLN COUNTY, BEING ON THE NRN FRINGE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN
CHC POPS MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
ON THU, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WNW AS SOUTHERLY LEVEL FLOW IS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MLCAPE WILL RISE UP TO 1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS BY AFTN. FOR NOW, CHANCES FOR TSTMS STLL LOOK ON THE
LOW SIDE AS I CAN'T FIND A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO ACROSS LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS READINGS REACH THE UPPER 80'S
TO LOWER 90'S OVER NERN CO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO FRI, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A
SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S OVER THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, MODELS HAVE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF HIGHER BASED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE PLAINS, MLCAPE IS
RATHER MINIMAL SO CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK LOW.
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ACROSS NERN CO.
MLCAPE IS FCST TO BE IN THE 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
BY SUN, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MLCAPE IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE THE PLAINS EAST OF A PSEUDO DRYLINE. THUS MAY SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS ON
SUN, WILL LIKELY RISE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MON, RATHER DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREAS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. LATEST DATA STILL DOESN'T SHOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT, SO IT MAY END UP BEING DRY WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NE BY 17Z AND THEN MORE EASTERLY BY 21Z. FOR THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL GO ESE BY 03Z AND THEN TO LIGHT SOUTH BY 06Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
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