873
FXUS65 KBOU 060243
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
THE LAST OF THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN
ARAPAHOE COUNTY AND IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MOVING OUT OF LARIMER COUNTY AND ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING AND THE AIRMASS
HAS BEEN STABILIZING. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOUDL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM ONE TO
START OFF A VERY WARM WEEK. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS, BUT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT
WITH SUBSIDENT FORCING AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS. SUMMER
WILL BE IN FULL FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
CONVECTION IS NOT MAKING IT OUT ON THE PLAINS, AS OF YET, THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FEW CELLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE DENVER CYCLONE,
CURRENTLY, IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS SAME
TIME. MODELS KEEP FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER COLORADO OVERNIGHT, THEN
IT BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG OMEGA
FIELDS HAVE NEUTRAL TO WEAK DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER US
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE-WISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER PROGS RANGE FROM A HALF INCH WEST TO 1.00 OVER THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.40
INCH WEST TO 0.90 INCH EASTERN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. PROGS OF
CAPE SHOW THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING. CAPE VALUES ARE LESS LATE DAY MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING. ON MONDAY, THERE IS EVEN LESS INDICATED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
POPS WILL GO WITH 10-30%S THIS EVENING, WITH THINGS DONE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH EVEN LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
TEMPERATURES, MONDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS STATES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON
TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH
LINGERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE
LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE, THE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS EAST OF DENVER COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE DRY, WARM AND
BREEZY WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS. FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW:
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
STATES WITH A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO. THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
ON SATURDAY, THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. IF THIS VERIFIES, WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS KDEN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
WITH WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTIONS AND GUSTING UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
THE LAST BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT JUST
NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD, SO A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY NEVER ARRIVE.
AFTER 9 PM OR 10 PM, WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS. FOR TOMORROW, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON WHEN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFTS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
FOOTHILLS ARRIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY ON THE PLAINS WHERE FINER FUELS ARE IN
THEIR MID-SEASON GROWTH. NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH LAND MANAGERS
TOMORROW THAT COULD BE CHANGING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM.....RJK
LONG TERM......KALINA
AVIATION...DANKERS
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS
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