186
FXUS65 KBOU 031123
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
523 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS
WITH MID 20S TO UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY FROM LIMON SOUTHWARD. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THE PLAINS, 20-30 KTS,
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THESE
GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE
AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE HIGH COUNTY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD FOR DENVER. CURRENT
FORECASTED TEMPERATURE IS 86 AND THAT WOULD PUT US JUST ONE DEGREE
SHY FROM THE DAILY RECORD SET IN 2024 AT 87 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, WE
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH GREELEY NEARING 90 DEGREES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIDGE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A 20-30% FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
WEAK STORM ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WITH A FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS CLEAR CREEK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR PWATS IN THE PLAINS TO BE FAIRLY
LOW (0.3-0.5), BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR A UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN TO
SETTLE IN. THIS MEANS OUR TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AT KBJC AND KAPA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OBSERVED AT KDEN. WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS START TO TURN CLOCKWISE AROUND 15Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY 17Z, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 0Z-1Z WHEN
WINDS SHOULD START TO SLACKEN AND TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
KDEN. KBJC IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND
2Z-3Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHAT WINDS WILL DO AT KAPA AFTER AROUND 3Z,
WITH THEM EITHER GOING EAST TO SOUTH OR BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EITHER WAY, THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO SLACKEN ENOUGH BY 2Z-3Z THAT WHICHEVER DIRECTION THEY GO, THERE
SHOULDN'T BE ANY IMPACTS DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY AT KDEN/KAPA BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHNELL
AVIATION...9
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