560
FXUS65 KBOU 220218
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
818 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
RIDGE ALOFT STILL CENTERED OVER COLORADO BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROF WHICH IS OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT AND
MORE SO ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, NO CHANGES
NEEDED IN ONGOING FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
STATE WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. ON MONDAY, THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
TO A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. I BACKED OF THE
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AFTER 21Z. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT
STILL MILD ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER THIS PATTERN.
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HEATING AND RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, THE AIRMASS WILL BE MILD. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO
REMAIN HIGH, 9000 TO 10000 FEET MSL.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO RESTRICTION. AT THE
TERMINALS, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHERLY BUT THERE IS A WEAK SURGE
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY BACK INTO KDEN TOWARDS 04Z. THERE IS A
WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND IT AND SO HAVE REFLECTED
THE SHIFT IN THE LATEST TAF AT KDEN. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WIND
SHIFT MAKES IT INTO APA/BJC AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND
CHANGE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO DRAINAGE
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE MORE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
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