113
FXUS65 KBOU 190556
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1056 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 75 MPH.
- PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF A COUPLE INCHES IS LIKELY (60-80%)
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10-30%) OF HEAVIER
SNOW UP TO 6" NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
- ONLY A COUPLE SHOWERS POSSIBLE DENVER & I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT (60% CHANCE).
- DRY MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHILLY START TO
THE WEEKEND, BUT A STRONG WARMING TREND SUNDAY - MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NRN CO TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND EXIT NERN CO BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON THU. THIS
FEATURE HAS FAVORABLE QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO THERE WILL BE
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN THE MTNS, THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE AFTN. MEANWHILE, IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THRU 12Z THU WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS.
BY FRI, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
FAVORABLE SHOT OF QG ASCENT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY FRI AFTN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY FRI EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.
FOR SAT AND SUN, DRIER AIR IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED EITHER DAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING, HIGHS WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MON AND TUE. IN ADDITION, WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
DENVER PRODUCED A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS ARE RETURNING TO
THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SURFACE LOW IS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF DENVER. AS IT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST, A COLD FRONT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH 09-10Z.
WINDS THEN SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE ENDING UP A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AFTER 12Z. WIND FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS A
TRICKY ONE. MODELS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DENVER
AREA MIXING INTO STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER, A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR. USUALLY THE MODELS OVER MIX THE AIRMASS
AND THE COOLER EASTERLY WINDS UNDERCUT THE STRONGER WEST WINDS,
WHICH IS WHAT THE TAF SHOWS FOR DEN. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY, AFTER THE
MODELS DECOUPLE THE WINDS, MOST MODELS SHOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH 06Z, WITH A DENVER CYCLONE LIKELY FORMING TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ033-034.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ035-036-039.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...12
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