661  
FXUS65 KBOU 051134  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
534 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE, AND IS  
HELPING SUSTAIN MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60'S  
TO LOW 70'S AS OF 3AM FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  
INTERESTINGLY, TEMPERATURES IN THE FORT MORGAN AREA WERE HOVERING  
NEAR 82F, HAVING INCREASED FIVE DEGREES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1AM,  
LIKELY FROM A WEAK HEAT BURST STEMMING FROM DECAYING  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THIS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS  
A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMA CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO ROTATES NORTH  
INTO COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES  
WILL SURGE AS A RESULT, RISING TO 0.60-0.90" IN THE HIGH COUNTRY,  
AND PEAKING BETWEEN 1.10" NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 1.50" AS  
YOU NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THESE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER  
THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. MLCAPE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT  
ACROSS THE AREA TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE  
AFTERNOON, AGAIN BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR MIDDAY AND  
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT MORE  
NUMEROUS STORMS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND MUCH GREATER  
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG, PARTICULARLY  
IN THE PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. GUSTY OUTFLOW  
WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS,  
AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE PLAINS. AS FAR AS BURN SCARS GO, THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS  
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT  
WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW.  
 
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY, THE SLIGHT  
RELAXATION OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON  
THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF  
THE 90 DEGREE MARK ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE MID 90'S  
IN THE PLAINS. THE HIGH VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WILL MOSTLY STAY  
BELOW 80 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE  
BURN AREAS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF HOT AND  
DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MAIN  
CONCERN WILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
CONUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE  
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.0-1.4" FOR THE PLAINS AND  
UP TO .80" FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW  
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WEAK TO  
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE PLACE IN MOST AREAS TO  
FURTHER SUPPORT SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION  
FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE PLAINS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH  
INVERTED-V PROFILES INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS  
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING IN MORE  
WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW ALOFT. A RESULTING PLUME OF WEAKER MOISTURE  
WILL BE IN THE PLACE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE IN MOST  
AREAS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER  
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL RANGE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS  
AND 60S/70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY WED/THURS.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. NAEFS GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS  
THIS PATTERN WELL WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEMBERS SHOW MAX  
TEMPERATURES IN TRIPLE DIGITS WITH OTHERS SHOWING UPPER 90S AT  
DEN FOR SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE, HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND IS BECOMING  
MORE LIKELY...GET READY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY  
WITH THIS PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN  
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
CURRENT SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND THE DENVER METRO WILL  
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A  
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF NE WINDS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BASES LOWERING  
TO AROUND 080 AFTER 21-22Z WHEN SCATTERED TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
LIKELY ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY  
OF DENVER TERMINALS THROUGH AS LATE AS 03-04Z. IN THE AFTERNOON,  
EXPECT PREVAILING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN  
SOMEWHAT. POTENTIAL FOR TS OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL EXIST IN  
AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THEN EXPECT RETURN TO SOUTHWEST  
DRAINAGE FLOW LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VISUAL CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS IF  
TSRA IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT TODAY COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED POTENTIAL  
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THREAT  
OF FLASH FLOODING FOR AREA BURN SCARS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 0.50"/HR  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND  
WEAKER STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SLOWER MOVING  
SHOWERS/STORMS, CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER,  
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR  
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL BE LIMITED AS A RESULT.  
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM SLOWLY PASSES OVER  
A BURN AREA. STARTING THURSDAY, MOISTURE DECREASES REDUCING  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FURTHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ  
LONG TERM...MENSCH  
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ  
HYDROLOGY...RODRIGUEZ/MENSCH  
 
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