879
FXUS65 KBOU 040032
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
632 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID EVENING. MOST/ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE UNSTABLE
AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE RAIN THREAT TO AN END.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WE SEE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY PLAINS. CLOUDS HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER, WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER.
A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS AND CREATES A CONVERGENCE LINE FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST EAST OF DIA. HERE, MLCAPE
REACHES 600-1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR
COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS DOUGLAS, ELBERT, AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE A SIMILAR SET UP WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE WILL GENERALLY RANGE
500-1000 J/KG SO CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS JUST REACHING
SEVERE CRITERIA, BUT MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE.
HIGHS TAKE A SMALL STEP BACK WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NORTH
COLORADO. MLCAPE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS, UP TO 600 J/KG.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS TOPPING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WEAKENS,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR NORMAL. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO WELL DEFINED
FEATURES ON THE MODELS AT THIS TIME TO THINK WE WILL SEE MORE THAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CEILINGS AROUND 2,500-3,000 FEET WILL LIKELY STAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS BETWEEN
09-13Z THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO
CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THE POSSIBLE CLEARING, A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED. THE MIDDAY PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS. BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AND IMPACT THE AIRPORTS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT COULD REACH UP
TO 40 KNOTS AS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THESE STORMS WILL BRING
CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 4,000 FEET AND THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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