038  
FXUS65 KBOU 082348  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
448 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
WE HAVE EXPIRED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PARK AND GORE  
RANGES.  
 
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR  
AND DRY BENEATH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE,  
WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE  
DECREASING AND TURNING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE, AND LOW TEMPERATURES  
NEAR NORMAL.  
 
TOMORROW, QG FIELDS SHOW WEAK SUBSIDENCE TURNING TO ASCENT IN THE  
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS  
WAVE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED.  
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS, FAVORING THE PARK RANGE AGAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE  
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AS THERE IS ANOTHER JET AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.  
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE  
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MARGINALLY  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHERN  
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON  
AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT STARTING TO TURN BACK TO SUBSIDENCE. YET  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE  
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN THE REST OF  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE  
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ON THE QG OMEGA  
FIELDS FRIDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPWARD  
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS INDICATED ON THE QG OMEGA FIELDS. THIS  
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LATER PERIODS. FAIRLY  
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SURFACE FLOW  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DECENT DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED EAST OF THE  
DIVIDE; MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT OVERLY  
STRONG.  
 
FOR MOISTURE, THERE IS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS  
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT IT DECREASES LATE. THERE IS SOME MID AND UPPER  
LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT. NOW THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE  
NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS NOT INTO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE MOVES IN MONDAY NOW. FOR  
POPS, WILL GO WITH 30-60%S IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. THAT'S  
IT. FOR TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S,  
WITH A 3-6 C WARM UP FOR SUNDAY'S HIGHS.  
 
FOR THE LATER DAYS, MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS SHOW  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY DECREASING. AN UPPER TROUGH/  
CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 12Z  
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR OMAHA, NEBRASKA.  
MODERATELY STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE  
FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE TROUGH NOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A BIT  
LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS INDICATED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE  
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT NOT REAL  
COLD. MODELS SHOW SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR THE PLAIN'S SNOWFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN SPEED  
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE  
SUN SETS. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS DRAINAGE TONIGHT. TOMORROW, A  
DCVZ WILL SETUP TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DENVER METRO. THIS  
WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AT DEN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST OR  
NORTHWEST. APA MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY  
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
TOMORROW, IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE  
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10 TO 15  
PERCENT IS COINCIDENT WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH FOR A FEW  
HOURS. WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS YET AS  
FUELS SHOULD NOT CURRENTLY BE CRITICAL IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS,  
SO THE CONCERN IS REALLY FOR A VERY LIMITED AREA AND JUST BARELY  
ENOUGH TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.  
 
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER  
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY  
LEVELS.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM.....EJD  
LONG TERM......RJK  
AVIATION...DANIELSON  
FIRE WEATHER...EJD/RJK  
 
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