464
FXUS65 KBOU 242348
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
548 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FEWER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
- HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
NORTHWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED AS THE RIDGE NEARS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75-1.00 (IN) ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL, INCLUDING THE 18Z RUN, HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF DENVER, THUS INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S BOTH DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT. THE RECORD HIGH FOR DENVER ON SATURDAY IS 99
DEGREES AND ON SUNDAY IT IS 100 DEGREES. BOTH OF THESE RECORDS
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. THUS, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACT TO CAP THE AIRMASS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS, BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD SURVIVE AS
THEY CROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF COLORADO AND
REMAINS SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS WELL
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SOMEWHAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE 140 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MODELS STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND STORMS LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AS OF 2345Z, STORMS ARE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KBJC
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. WINDS COULD SHIFT AT KAPA AND KDEN IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO TO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVES AWAY FROM THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS GO UP ON THAT BOUNDARY. THESE COULD MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF KAPA AND KDEN OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR.
STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY IMPACT KAPA, WITH KDEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE STORMS. MOST LIKELY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
NOW THROUGH 4Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS
DRAINAGE, BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF STORM IMPACTS BETWEEN 20Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ038>040-043.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ038>040-043.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...AP
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