383  
FXUS65 KBOU 232159  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
259 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019  
 
LAST NIGHTS STORM IS NOW FAR INTO EASTERN KANSAS LEAVING NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. DOWNWARD QG MOTION IS INCREASING OVER  
THE AREA, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
ACROSS THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPING EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY. A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING TO  
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES,  
FAVORING WEST SLOPES IN THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE  
DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE  
PLAINS, RESULTING IN MODERATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN  
THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT URBAN CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY BOULDER  
AREAS AND NORTH DUE TO LESS SNOW COVER. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 35 TO  
45 MPH RANGE. WEST OF THE DIVIDE, IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
TO CALM, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH PARK WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL BE.  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN  
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR  
NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE A COLD PUSH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO KEEP  
LESS THAN FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THAT AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CALM  
WEATHER DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019  
 
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH MOST  
OF THE MOISTURE HOLDING JUST NORTH OF COLORADO, BUT THERE WILL BE  
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. LEE  
TROUGHING BARELY MAKES IT EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, SO  
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE TO 40  
KNOTS IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE  
AMPLIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODERATE MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE  
LAYER. PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH 60-70 MPH OVER THE HIGHER  
PEAKS AND WIND PRONE AREAS. MOST OF THIS SHOULD STAY UP HIGH,  
HOWEVER, AS WE'RE STILL TRYING TO RID OURSELVES OF THE SHALLOW  
COLD AIR AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL SEE WARMING, WITH  
HIGHS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE I-25  
CORRIDOR, WITH COOLER READINGS FARTHER EAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A  
SURGE OF COLDER AIR LATE IN THE DAY, AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS GETS A  
WEAK PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE WARMUP SHOULD RESUME  
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE LEE TROUGHING EXPECTED, BUT WE'RE STILL  
UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE REAL WARMING WILL MAKE IT. THEN ANOTHER  
SLOSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BEHIND  
A PASSING NORTHERN U.S. SHORT WAVE. OVERALL, OUR CONFIDENCE FOR  
WARMING IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS/I-25 CORRIDOR IS PRETTY GOOD, BUT  
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WE'LL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER  
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF ARCTIC AIR AND A DEEPER SNOW  
COVER.  
 
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE DO SEE SOME MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE  
THROUGH SOME FLAT RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY, SO WE'LL KEEP A CHANCE OF  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN FORECAST THEN. THERE MAY BE A  
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE  
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ATTEMPTS TO BREAK INTO THE  
FLAT RIDGING.  
 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS BEING WATCHED FOR SOMETIME  
NEXT WEEKEND. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST WE'LL BE OPEN  
TO A COLDER ARCTIC SURGE AGAIN, WHILE AN MOIST WESTERLY FLOW  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.  
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION BACK TO COLD AND SNOWIER  
WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST  
AS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIDN'T MIX OUT AS WIDESPREAD AS  
THOUGHT EARLIER, LEAVING DEN OUT OF THEM UNTIL JUST RECENTLY.  
WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NEAR APA, WILL BEGIN DECREASING  
AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT AT KBJC WHERE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRAINAGE AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS WILL STAY  
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN  
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH  
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN  
 
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