920
FXUS65 KBOU 151740
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1140 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS
TONIGHT.
- CHILLY BUT DRY/SUNNY WEATHER FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER FREEZE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO BREAK UP, AND CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO THE SEASON'S FIRST FREEZE ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. THAT'S DESPITE A LIGHT
BREEZE THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
(WARMEST OVER THE WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS).
DESPITE A RETURN TO FULL SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE CHILLY AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STICK MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER FREEZE
AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE PLAINS, BUT
SOME WARMING ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
THIS WEEKEND WILL TURN WARM AGAIN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY, AND THEN WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY REACH THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A WEAK SHOWER OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A TOUCH
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THAT
KEEPS US IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN, BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL RETURN MOSTLY FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
WE ARE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, WHEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS OVERALL KEEP THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (50-70%) OF 1" OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT BEAR
WATCHING AS THE TROUGH DOES HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. IT'S JUST THAT FOR NOW THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE STORM TRACK AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SWATH
STAYING JUST STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IMPACTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR KDEN AND KAPA AS THE PUSH OF DRY COLD
AIR MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 17-28KTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHTENING UP THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, ALL THE
SITES WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS, OR POTENTIALLY
ALL OF THE NIGHT (KBJC). MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS KDEN AND KAPA
GOING NE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF
NE WINDS UP TO ~14KTS MOVES IN BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY, BUT SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. KDEN AND KAPA LOOK TO FAVOR MORE OF A E/SE DIRECTION
WHILE KBJC WILL BE A LIGHT SE. A MORE FAVORABLE DAY IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ038>051.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...SCHNELL
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