056
FXUS65 KBOU 160610
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1110 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT BROUGHT A STRONG PUSH OF WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IN OUR CWA. OVERNIGHT, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS (50 TO 70 MPH GUSTS) AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE WESTERN DENVER METRO,
PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
IT'S NOT OFTEN THAT WE SEE A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING DAY... BUT
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT IS THE FORECAST HERE.
THIS EVENING'S COLD FRONT WAS A STRONGER THAN MOST GUIDANCE HAD
SUGGESTED, WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SEEING 45-55KT WINDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS ISN'T PARTICULARLY MOIST, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR SOME STRATUS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND CLOSER TO THE WYOMING BORDER. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AT THIS POINT ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING LOOKS
UNLIKELY.
THE BIGGER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST COME TOMORROW. THE EARLY WINDOW
OF OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE BULLISH DEVELOPING STRONG WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM DENVER INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE. WHILE THESE AREAS TYPICALLY REMAIN WELL SHELTERED IN NNW
FLOW ALOFT, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG QG SUBSIDENCE, A BELT OF
90KT 500MB FLOW, AND THE NOSE OR RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK WOULD ALL FAVOR SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THERE. WHILE
THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD STILL SET UP ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
FORT COLLINS TO LIMON LINE.
FINALLY, IT'S HARD TO OVERLOOK A RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
HRRR/RAP BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
THAT MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE/STRONGLY SUBSIDENT REGIMES. THIS IS ALSO BROADLY
SUPPORTED BY NEWER RUNS OF THE RRFS WHICH ARE TYPICALLY A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH RH FORECASTS... AND THAT THOUGHT, COUPLED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE SOUTH/WEST DENVER
METRO HAS LED TO AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THE
REST OF OUR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES FOR TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WAVE RACES
SOUTHEASTWARD HELPING TO CARVE OUT LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE COLORADO UNDER A STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 120 KNOT JET OVERHEAD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RACING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 TO 60
MPH WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WE EARLIER UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A WARNING AND MOVED UP THE TIMING TO MID TO LATE EVENING
TO CAPTURE THE STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
THE STRONG WINDS LINGER UP TO A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE COLD,
THEN WE WILL SEE A LULL IN THE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE'S A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND FIERCE DRYING OCCURS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
SO WE LOOK ON TRACK TO SEE 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS
AND THUS THE JET HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD BY A COUNTY OR TWO. THIS
LINES UP WITH 12Z HRRR AND THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING
SOUTHWESTWARD. BECAUSE OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG
WINDS, UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL HELP
KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO
COLD. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS HAS AN ARCTIC ORIGIN, SO LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DECREASING WINDS BUT OVERALL SIMILAR DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE CRITICAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AND THIS IS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW WITH VERY DRY AIR
MOVING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 45 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN WELD AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 20S TO TEENS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING.
A BRIEF RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HIGH ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY LEADING TO COOLER AND
WINDIER CONDITIONS. THERE IS SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS THAT ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NO IMPACTS FROM THIS TROUGH.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK LEADING TO MILD TEMPERATURES. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND HAVE A VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH
TEMPERATURES. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY ABOUT THE ENSEMBLES IS THAT
THERE COULD BE VERY COLD AIR COMING INTO COLORADO. THERE'S ABOUT A
20% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES GET BELOW 0 F ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 24-25.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
BLAST OF THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY PASSED, WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS TO 12 KTS OR LESS FROM THE N-W EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE (20-30%) CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KBJC WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPMENT). AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE SEEING AREAS
OF STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 2000-6000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT.
THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TIL ABOUT
11Z.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL SHIFT TOWARD WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
REDEVELOPING NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS INCREASED WINDS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WE EXPECT GUSTS >40 KTS TO DEVELOP
AT KDEN TOWARD 18Z AND THEN HOLD THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF PEAK GUST OF
50 KTS IS POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE). THOSE STRONG WINDS MEAN WE COULD
ALSO SEE BLOWING DUST RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES, LIKE IT DID WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING. WE'LL GO WITH A PREVAILING
6SM BLDU, BUT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM OR A LITTLE
LESS IF THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL OCCURS. THOSE WINDS WILL
RELAX BY 23Z-00Z ENDING THE BLOWING DUST, BUT REMAIN GUSTY TO ~35
KTS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z, AND POSSIBLY LASTING AS LATE AT 08-09Z
SATURDAY. KBJC AND KAPA WILL BE SLIGHTLY SHELTERED IN NNW FLOW,
BUT STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 28-40KTS DURING THE PEAK OF
THE WINDS 18Z-22Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAD RACED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH WHEN IT PUSHED
THROUGH. MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHORT-LIVED AS THE AIRMASS RAPIDLY DRIES FRIDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL WITH GUSTS
REACHING 60 TO 70 MPH OVER THE PLAINS. WE'VE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS, BOULDER, AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AS WE NOW
ANTICIPATED THE DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS (JUST NOT AS TERRIBLY
WINDY) TO ENVELOPE THOSE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY, BUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES.
ON SATURDAY, VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY LESS THAN
-10F WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DESPITE THE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 11-16%.
WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS UP TO 45 MPH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN
PLACE TODAY AND ON FRIDAY, NO HIGHLIGHTS WERE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IF THE CONFIDENCE IN LOW DEW POINTS INCREASES, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ215-238-240-
242>251.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ038-042>051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ239-241.
UPDATE...HIRIS
DISCUSSION...12/DANIELSON
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...12/DANIELSON
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