235
FXUS65 KBOU 262332
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
532 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT TODAY, WITH HIGHS 100-106 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HEAT ADVISORY EXPANDED TO PALMER DIVIDE.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NUMEROUS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RELIEF TO EXTREME HEAT.
- DRYING OUT AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE SCORCHING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO TODAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS. GIVEN MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO EVEN A FEW 100S, IT IS LIKELY THAT
MULTIPLE STATION DAILY RECORDS WILL EITHER BE TIED OR BROKEN. BELOW
IS A SAMPLING OF FORECAST AND RECORD TEMPERATURES;
CITYFORECASTOLD RECORD
DENVER: 102100 IN 1910
FORT COLLINS: 102100 IN 1910
BOULDER: 101 98 IN 1935
GREELEY UNC: 105102 IN 2003
FORT MORGAN: 106106 IN 1910
AKRON: 101104 IN 2003
JULESBURG: 105105 IN 1894
LIMON: 100 98 IN 2023
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY,
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND OUTFLOWS COULD ENCOURAGE
SPORADIC PERIODS OF "COOLER" BREEZINESS THAT BRING SLIGHT HEAT
RELIEF. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO WORK TO TRAP HEAT NEAR THE
SURFACE BY PREVENTING NIGHTTIME RADIATIVE COOLING FROM OCCURRING.
AS SUCH, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE RATHER WARM, ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S IN PARTS OF THE DENVER METRO.
FOR TOMORROW, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. VERY WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES THAT GREATLY EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE (150%-200% OF NORMAL). FOR THE DENVER METRO,
THIS MEANS THAT PW VALUES WILL RANGE AROUND 1.4"-1.6", WITH A FEW
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING AS HIGH AS 1.8". OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.75" BOTH WEST AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE ANOMALOUS PWS, COMBINED WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS (< 15KT CLOUD LAYER WINDS), AND LONG-SKINNY CAPE
SOUNDING PROFILES, WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ANCHORED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE ONLY INGREDIENT THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS A VERY SHALLOW WARM CLOUD LAYER,
WHICH IS SURPRISING FOR THE WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
TUESDAY'S SETUP LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S. PWS WILL STILL
BE AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL PERHAPS A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN, AS DEEP AS 5,000FT. BY WEDNESDAY,
PWS ARE STILL ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ALTHOUGH FASTER STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE DUE TO FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SUGGESTED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
IN SUMMARY, MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY EXHIBIT ALMOST ALL OF THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ONLY
A FEW FLUCTUATIONS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE DAYS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE GIVEN THE ERRATIC NATURE OF MONSOONAL
STORMS AS WELL AS TERRAIN INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS) DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE GREATLY DECREASES ON FRIDAY,
AND LONG- RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND,
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER
THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. PREVAILING NW AND W WINDS SHOULD LARGELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, WITH SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAKING ATTEMPTS AT INCURSIONS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
~03Z. CONFIDENCE IN THEIR ABILITY TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IS LOW,
ALTHOUGH NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF INITIATED BY
ANY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN THOSE
CASES, BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT SW DRAINAGE FLOW TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER AOA 100. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER IN THE MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN ANY
TAFS. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW, LEADING
TO GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINALS, MOST PREVALENT AFTER 22Z. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL WILL
RETURN WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038>051.
DISCUSSION...AA
AVIATION...BRQ
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