318
FXUS65 KBOU 061117
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY DUE TO MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
WE WILL SEE A CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE NORTHEAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT BUCKLE IN THE RIDGING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WE'LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WHICH MAY ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.
ON SUNDAY, THE RIDGING CONTINUES WITH SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SATURDAY'S WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHS IN
THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE MONDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS STILL
UNCLEAR, AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW STRONG OR NOT THE WINDS WILL
BE ON MONDAY. LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR WEAKER
WINDS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS (SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET STREAKS) ARE STILL MESSY WITH NOT MUCH AGREEMENT
YET AMONG THE MODELS. WHILE IT'S LIKELY WE SEE PERIODS LIGHT SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHEN EXACTLY IS STILL UNCLEAR. AS FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINS TUESDAY AND
WILL RUN THROUGH THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO OF THESE WEAK EMBEDDED
TROUGHS COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THEY WILL
COOL SOME WITH RIDGING NO LONGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PACIFIC
AIR OVER THE REGION AND ARCTIC AIR NOWHERE NEARBY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
WEAK DENVER CYCLONE WAS OVER NWRN DENVER EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
HAS LED TO LIGHT SW WINDS AT APA AND DIA WITH NORTH WINDS AT BJC.
WINDS THRU THE LATE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SSW AND THEN
LIGHT SE AT APA AND DIA BY 17Z. BJC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION. BY 23Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE AT APA
FROM THE SOUTH WHILE DIA STAYS SE. EVENTUALLY WINDS MAY INCREASE
AT DIA BY 02Z FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN GO MORE SSW BY 04Z. GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT APA AND DIA. AT
BJC, WINDS WILL BE SE BY 21Z AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT NNE BY 01Z
AND THEN NW BY 03Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE AT APA AND DIA
BY 08Z BUT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE S OR SSW. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...RPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page