937
FXUS65 KBOU 171804
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1104 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY WITH CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.
- SNOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK, BUT A WARMING TREND POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO ADD FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AS WE ENTER A
VERY ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WELL FORECAST PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW OF THE KEY PLAYERS WELL.
THE FIRST OF A FEW SHORTWAVES OF NOTE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AS IT PIVOTS AROUND A MUCH BROADER UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND IN SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, A POTENT, 180KT JET STREAK IS EVIDENT
FROM SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO WYOMING DURING THE DAY TODAY,
A SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, SETTING UP THE FIRST STAGE OF OUR WINTER STORM THERE (MORE
ON THAT SOON). A GOOD BORA EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS BY MID MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DAY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE WEEK, THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOR
SIMPLICITY, LETS SPLIT THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS WEATHER AND IMPACTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BELOW.
MOUNTAIN SNOW & WIND...
PERHAPS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART OF THIS WEEK'S RETURN OF WINTRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE LEADING WAVE OF SNOW. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER BULLISH ON THE FRONTAL BAND OF SNOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AND FOR GOOD REASON. AIDED BY INCREASING QG ASCENT FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, INCREASING MID-LEVEL FGEN, AND THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT QUADRANT OF A 160+ KT UPPER JET STREAK, ALL
THE INGREDIENTS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE THERE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. BOUNDARY LAYER
PARAMETERS ARE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE. 0-2KM MEAN WINDS OF 40-50KT
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS (AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS) FROM
ROUGHLY 6-10 AM. WHILE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THIS PERIOD MAY
ONLY BE A FEW INCHES, THE RAPID ONSET OF SNOW AND WIND COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, CONTINUED OROGRAPHIC AND BANDED SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY TUESDAY EVENING, BUT MOISTURE IMPROVES A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED SNOWFALL IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT GUIDANCE
HAS NOT HANDLED THAT LAST WAVE WITH ANY CONSISTENCY. IN OUR MAIN
PERIOD OF INTEREST (ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THURSDAY AM). WE DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE
AND LEFT THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS IS.
WIND, FIRE WEATHER, AND EVENTUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE PLAINS...
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT/BORA TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK.
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT
IT STILL LOOKS VERY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE DAY IS JUST HOW WINDY WE GET DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWS REMARKABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON - AND IN FACT, SOME SHOW SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS AGL! MOST BUFKIT PROFILES HAVE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 40-50KT, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO 50-60 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE
CONTINUED AS AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED IN THIS
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH JUST A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE MAY STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THAT SURFACE
LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS RATHER PERSISTENT IN
KEEPING THAT LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LIES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN SOME OTHER GUIDANCE. ONE TREND TO LOOK
OUT FOR IS THAT A FEW MODELS NOW STRENGTHEN THAT LOW ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS COOLER, BUT ALSO QUITE DRY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST WOULD CALL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT IS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE. FRIDAY'S FORECAST IS AGAIN A LITTLE MORE
INTRIGUING. THERE'S STILL A FEW MODELS THAT TRACK THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. IS
THAT PARTICULARLY LIKELY? NO... BUT IF THERE WAS ONE PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL, THAT WOULD BE IT. AT THE VERY
LEAST, TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE DENVER METRO DURING THE DAY.
FINALLY, AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR A
FEW DAYS... ALONG WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MEDIUM/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THIS IS A SHORT-LIVED CHANGE BEFORE RETURNING TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR DEN AND APA TO LESS THAN
30 KTS. EXPECT STRONGER WEST WINDS TO RETURN BY 20Z (BJC WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY) WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO
25 KTS IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES.
IN ADDITION, IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT A FEW HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATE A BRIEF NORTHWEST WINDS AT DEN AND BJC BEFORE TURNING TO
DRAINAGE BY 03/04Z. STRONGER THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS FOR
TONIGHT, UP TO 15 KTS AT TIMES. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. EVERY GEFS MEMBER SHOWS VALUES
WELL ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR VIRTUALLY EVERY LOCATION EAST
OF I-25 TUESDAY AFTERNOON... AS WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH REMAIN
LIKELY ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS/FUELS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A BROAD GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE
LOWER FOOTHILLS, WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY LIKELY
ALONG AND EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. WE DID NOT SEE A
NEED TO MAKE ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE EXISTING RED FLAG
WARNING TODAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH OUR FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TO END THE WEEK,
LIMITING FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ030-
032>034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ031.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ238>251.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ038-
042>051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ246-247.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...MAI
FIRE WEATHER...HIRIS
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