799
FXUS65 KBOU 011126
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
526 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO PARK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. AS
SUCH, HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLY GIVEN THAT ADDITIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
THE CURRENT UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER COMES TO A CLOSE ON FRIDAY
BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY. PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY-
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
SHOWERS IS QUITE LOW (AROUND 10%), WITH ONLY 0.05" QPF AT MOST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER. BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE JET
STREAM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW AND BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AND SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, BUT THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR MEASURABLE QPF. ALTHOUGH, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RECENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN IN QPF AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY, THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE FAVORED TO RECEIVE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS HOVERING
AROUND HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE BELOW TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30% CHANCE) COULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, DEPENDING ON
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO THE 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD BACK IN LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A 3-4 HR WINDOW (~17-21Z) WHERE FEW-SCT
CLOUDS WITH LOWER BASES (040-060) COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH MORE
LIKELY FOR KAPA THAN KDEN OR KBJC.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CURRENT SW
DRAINAGE FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A N/NE WIND AT THE TERMINALS LATE
MORNING. IN THEORY, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A CLOCKWISE TRANSITION BACK
TO DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION LOOKS QUITE PLAUSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BRQ
DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...BRQ
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