873  
FXUS65 KBOU 060243  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
THE LAST OF THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN  
ARAPAHOE COUNTY AND IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. A FEW WEAK  
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MOVING OUT OF LARIMER COUNTY AND ONTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING AND THE AIRMASS  
HAS BEEN STABILIZING. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOUDL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM ONE TO  
START OFF A VERY WARM WEEK. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP  
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS, BUT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT  
WITH SUBSIDENT FORCING AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE  
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS. SUMMER  
WILL BE IN FULL FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
CONVECTION IS NOT MAKING IT OUT ON THE PLAINS, AS OF YET, THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE FEW CELLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE  
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE DENVER CYCLONE,  
CURRENTLY, IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS SAME  
TIME. MODELS KEEP FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER COLORADO OVERNIGHT, THEN  
IT BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG OMEGA  
FIELDS HAVE NEUTRAL TO WEAK DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER US  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL  
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE-WISE PRECIPITABLE  
WATER PROGS RANGE FROM A HALF INCH WEST TO 1.00 OVER THE PLAINS  
THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.40  
INCH WEST TO 0.90 INCH EASTERN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. PROGS OF  
CAPE SHOW THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS  
EVENING. CAPE VALUES ARE LESS LATE DAY MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST  
VALUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF  
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THIS  
EVENING. ON MONDAY, THERE IS EVEN LESS INDICATED OVER THE FRONT  
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR  
POPS WILL GO WITH 10-30%S THIS EVENING, WITH THINGS DONE BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH EVEN LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR  
TEMPERATURES, MONDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS  
AFTERNOON'S HIGHS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH  
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS STATES WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON  
TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH  
MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH  
LINGERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE  
LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE, THE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY PRODUCE LIGHT  
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, ONE OR  
TWO OF THE STORMS EAST OF DENVER COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE  
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE DRY, WARM AND  
BREEZY WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER  
PERSISTS. FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW:  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER  
STATES WITH A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER COLORADO. THIS  
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND  
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE  
STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY  
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME  
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK.  
 
ON SATURDAY, THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE  
UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN  
COLORADO. IF THIS VERIFIES, WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 843 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WELD COUNTY AND  
THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS KDEN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO  
WITH WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTIONS AND GUSTING UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  
THE LAST BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT JUST  
NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD, SO A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY NEVER ARRIVE.  
AFTER 9 PM OR 10 PM, WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE  
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS. FOR TOMORROW, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT  
AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON WHEN OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFTS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE  
FOOTHILLS ARRIVE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE RAISING FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY ON THE PLAINS WHERE FINER FUELS ARE IN  
THEIR MID-SEASON GROWTH. NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING  
ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH LAND MANAGERS  
TOMORROW THAT COULD BE CHANGING.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DANKERS  
SHORT TERM.....RJK  
LONG TERM......KALINA  
AVIATION...DANKERS  
FIRE WEATHER...DANKERS  
 
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