309
FXUS65 KBOU 172039
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
239 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE SEASON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOUNDINGS AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 40-50 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND A
DRY VERTICAL PROFILE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE EASTERNMOST COLORADO PLAINS, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH
WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS EXPERIENCE A WIDER RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S. CLOUD COVER FROM A DECAYING DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW LEADING TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, THOUGH STILL IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE PLAINS AND DENVER
METRO.
A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25% POPS) FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY, ALTHOUGH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH A TRACE AT MOST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND BECOME A STRONG CUTOFF LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF
THIS CUTOFF LOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, AND
THIS IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL ARRIVE.
HOWEVER, AS IT STAND NOW, OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
DOWNSLOPING REGIME WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORING OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
GIVEN THAT SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THIS CUTOFF LOW COULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA. REGARDING
SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS LOWER THAN 10,000-11,000FT UNTIL THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY, LIKELY AFTER THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CLOUDS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME VRB BEFORE SETTLING INTO A
EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO DRAINAGE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (~20% CHANCE) THAT KBJC SEES SOME STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS, UP TO 15 KTS, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN TOMORROW- WINDS BRIEFLY VRB AND THEN
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
AVIATION...MV
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