038
FXUS65 KBOU 082348
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
448 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
WE HAVE EXPIRED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PARK AND GORE
RANGES.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY BENEATH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE,
WHICH IS APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING AND TURNING TO NORMAL DRAINAGE, AND LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
TOMORROW, QG FIELDS SHOW WEAK SUBSIDENCE TURNING TO ASCENT IN THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
WAVE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, FAVORING THE PARK RANGE AGAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AS THERE IS ANOTHER JET AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MARGINALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT STARTING TO TURN BACK TO SUBSIDENCE. YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN THE REST OF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ON THE QG OMEGA
FIELDS FRIDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS INDICATED ON THE QG OMEGA FIELDS. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LATER PERIODS. FAIRLY
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A BIT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DECENT DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE; MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT OVERLY
STRONG.
FOR MOISTURE, THERE IS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT IT DECREASES LATE. THERE IS SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT. NOW THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS NOT INTO THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. MOISTURE MOVES IN MONDAY NOW. FOR
POPS, WILL GO WITH 30-60%S IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. THAT'S
IT. FOR TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S,
WITH A 3-6 C WARM UP FOR SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS SHOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY DECREASING. AN UPPER TROUGH/
CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR OMAHA, NEBRASKA.
MODERATELY STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE
FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH NOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A BIT
LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS INDICATED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT NOT REAL
COLD. MODELS SHOW SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE PLAIN'S SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN SPEED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE
SUN SETS. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS DRAINAGE TONIGHT. TOMORROW, A
DCVZ WILL SETUP TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DENVER METRO. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AT DEN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST. APA MAY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY
BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
TOMORROW, IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10 TO 15
PERCENT IS COINCIDENT WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH FOR A FEW
HOURS. WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS YET AS
FUELS SHOULD NOT CURRENTLY BE CRITICAL IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS,
SO THE CONCERN IS REALLY FOR A VERY LIMITED AREA AND JUST BARELY
ENOUGH TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.....EJD
LONG TERM......RJK
AVIATION...DANIELSON
FIRE WEATHER...EJD/RJK
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