742
FXUS65 KBOU 051154
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
554 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT DID NOT DISAPPOINT IN BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT ON TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF SUB 90S TODAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST, CENTERING
ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY, WITH THE URBAN CORRIDOR REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE (SINGLE DIGITS). A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM TODAY. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, EARLY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID
TO UPPER 70S) IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR. NORTHERLY FLOW FROM AN
EARLY MORNING SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEAR SUNRISE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT THIS COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST IF IT STICKS
AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED. WHILE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER CONCENTRATIONS ARRIVES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK UNDER THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EVEN THEN, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE VERY
CLOSE TO SATURATION, WITH A TWO DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT
KDEN. WITH CALM WINDS AND ONLY A SMALL FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURE
OR DEWPOINT NEEDED TO START THE CONDENSATION PROCESS, HAVE KEPT
THE TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG AND LOWER
VISIBILITY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
AT KBJC, BUT WITH WINDS HAVING JUST GONE CALM, THINKING THIS
LEAVES ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO KEEP THE TEMPO HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAT KAPA WILL NOT SEE
BR/FG DEVELOP AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE KEEPING SATURATION CONCERNS
AT BAY THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH AROUND FOR PERIODS OF LOWERED SLANT RANGE VIS. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH THE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS MORNING'S CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES
AND WASH OUT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND PATTERN SETTLING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS TODAY, WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM
TODAY. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN A BIT ON THURSDAY, VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, SPREADING
EASTWARD ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT SINGLE
DIGIT TO LOW TEENS RH IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE MAJORITY
OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LIMITED AND
LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211>214-217-218.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...9
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