184
FXUS65 KBOU 222347
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
547 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FXUS65 KBOU 221850
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1250 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG
WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A RISK OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY.
- TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO (BUT STILL ABOVE) NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- GRADUAL DRYING END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A TREND TO MORE SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS PRETTY HEALTHY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WHILE THE AIRMASS
IS STILL SOMEWHAT STABLE (PER ACARS AND SPC ANALYSIS) BUT
INCREASINGLY MOIST OVER THE PLAINS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS IS BEING REINFORCED BY A COUPLE WESTERLY MOVING SURGES,
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EAST AND
NORTH OF DENVER. THE LATEST SURGE COMING BACK THROUGH ELBERT
COUNTY WILL LIKELY BOOST VALUES OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS WE DEVELOP A SURFACE CYCLONE IN VICINITY
OF DOUGLAS OR WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY. THAT WILL AID MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THERE, ALONG
WITH A RISK OF A LANDSPOUT. OTHERWISE, STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES CLIMB TO 150-170% OF
NORMAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT OVER THE PLAINS. AS
PER TYPICAL, WE STILL THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT OF STRONGEST
STORMS WOULD BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG/JUST EAST OF
I-25 - ESSENTIALLY COVERING ALL OF THE PLAINS. A COUPLE SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY DUE TO MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1200-2000 J/KG. BULK
SHEAR IS WEAK AND LESS THAN 25-30 KTS, HOWEVER, SO MAJORITY OF
THE SEVERE STORMS WOULD TEND TO BE PULSE (BRIEF). STORM MOTION
WILL BE RATHER SLOW AT 15 MPH OR LESS GIVEN LACK OF FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING THREATS IN A FEW
SPOTS. OVERALL PROGRESSION WILL EVENTUALLY BE TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO LATE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A GENERALLY
WEAKER SUBSEQUENT BATCH OR TWO OF STORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL
STRONGER ONES THAT WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO MORE INSTABILITY.
WE STILL EXPECT SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT, BUT PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS.
ON SUNDAY, THERE IS SOME DRYING NOTED AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS A BIT
MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER, WE'RE NOT CONVINCED WE'LL ERODE ALL THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WE'LL
STILL SEE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND THEN THOSE
STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A RICHER, MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STILL MARGINAL, BUT A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MLCAPE OF 1000-1800 J/KG. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY PROFILES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER WARM YET, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT OR TWO FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OFFERING UP A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE TRANSITION DAYS INTO A
DRIER AND WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS STORM
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S (30% CHANCE OF UPPER
90S) FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS AS A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. THAT WOULD ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS
WE BEGIN OUR JOURNEY TOWARD AUTUMN BREEZES. UNFORTUNATELY,
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID SUMMER AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP IN THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
STORMS THAT HAVE IMPACTED DEN AND APA HAVE LARGELY STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE THERE. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT DEN AND APA THROUGH 05Z WITH A 10% CHANCE
LIGHTNING OCCURS. AT BJC, THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAVE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MODERATE DRAINAGE
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NORMAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AND NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL BE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TOMORROW AND
LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS, IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY (60%) THAT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 21-00Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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