285
FXUS65 KBOU 310817
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE OVER NRN CO TONIGHT WHICH WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE FROM NERN AZ ACROSS WRN
CO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND INTO WY BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLUX OF MONSOON
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES UP TO 150% ABOVE NORMAL.
THUS WILL SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOME LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE PLAINS, MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000
J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS. OVERALL, THERE WILL BE SOME
THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING OF TSTMS WILL BE FROM LATE AFTN
THRU THE MID EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN SOME AREAS BUT THEY WILL BE MOVING ALONG AS FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES THIS EVENING. AS FOR HIGHS, READINGS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
ON TUE, THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING HOURS. BY AFTN, DRIER AIR IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR WED AND THU, DRY AIR IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
WITH ONLY A LOW CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
BY FRI THRU NEXT WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
US AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SSW. MODELS EVENTUALLY WANT
TO ADVECT SOME MONSOON MOISTURE, FROM THE SWRN US, INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY THE WEEKEND. IF THAT HAPPENS THEN THERE WOULD BE AN
INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
SCT HI BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH SOME MICROBURST ACTIVITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
END AROUND 07Z. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT
BJC WHICH WILL HAVE A WESTERLY DIRECTION. BY 15Z MON, WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ENE/E
DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN WILL SEE GUSTY AND ERRACTIC WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
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