213
FXUS65 KBOU 111136
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
536 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES ARRIVES TODAY, LASTING
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- HINTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE REACHING THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON POSITIONING OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT... WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594DAM PER CURRENT
RAP ANALYSIS DATA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WORKING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF HEAT ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA ("COOLER" TO THE EAST). FORECAST HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE DENVER METRO,
WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S, WHICH WOULD FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE, BUT LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES MANAGE TO TO DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY, AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND SETTLE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTES, THE POSITIONING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION... BUT
ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S
MOST DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS, INSTEAD OF THE UPPER 90S OR LOW 100S.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE, AND ALL-TIME TEMPERATURE
RECORDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTH PARK (WALDEN - 94F), MIDDLE PARK
(KREMMLING - 94F, GRAND LAKE - 88F, DILLON - 89F), AND SOUTH PARK
(FAIRPLAY - 84F) AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, FORECAST CERTAINTY
BEGINS TO QUICKLY DECREASE. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, *HOW*
THAT HAPPENS IS STILL UP IN THE AIR (PUN SORT OF INTENDED). RECENT
MODEL CYCLES APPEAR TO TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH PREVENTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE FROM REACHING OUR CWA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND (OR
LATER). UNTIL CLEARER TRENDS EMERGE, THE MAIN STORY OF THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SETTLING ON AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY 18-19Z. THERE'S
STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
WINDS SHOULD SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING
ON DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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