836
FXUS65 KBOU 080020
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
620 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, HIGH VALLEYS, AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
- SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS HAS LED
TO A HOT DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE
MID 90S BY NOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE, THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS, BUT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR FRIDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS).
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW, SLIGHT DRYING FOR FRIDAY, SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY HIGH- BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 90S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH
PUSHES THROUGH COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING. A COUPLE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TREND THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES FOR SATURDAY LEADING TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS ONLY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AND
INCREASED MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2
TO 5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHILE ON THE PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH, MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH ON SATURDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS STILL
2-3 DAYS AWAY, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE (MAY END UP WITH NOT ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE STORMS) AND A POSSIBLE CAP IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
FOR NEXT WEEK, A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. MONDAY'S
HIGHS MAY STAY BELOW 90F ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 90 OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 02-03Z, MOSTLY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS, BUT THEN
NORMAL SOUTH/WEST DRAINAGE WINDS WILL KICK IN. ON FRIDAY, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP 15Z-18Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHILE LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM THE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS.
FOR FRIDAY, CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE MID LEVELS DRY SOME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVELS ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. THIS
WILL INCREASE FLOW ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO BRINGING WINDIER
CONDITIONS (GUST TO 40 MPH) FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DECREASE A
FEW DEGREES, BUT THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOW.
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, HIGH VALLEYS, AND FOOTHILLS EARLIER TODAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-214-
217.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ211>218.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038>040.
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
FIRE WEATHER...MEIER
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