816
FXUS65 KBOU 060845
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
245 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD.
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAINS COULD SPARK NEW
WILDFIRES.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE ARRIVES THIS COMING WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL
CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR HEAT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE
WE REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DCAPE RANGING FROM 1200-1700 J/KG, THE MAIN EXPECTATION IS FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOWS (35-45 MPH) AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND CHEYENNE
RIDGE. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, WITH GROWING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING PATTERN STARTS
AGAIN FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES DO START TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GET UNDER AN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, REACHING
FOR RECORD HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE WE REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER THE RIDGE, SUPPRESSING ANY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER, FUEL CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS
THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS INCREASE OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE DENVER TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECTING ELEVATED SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BY SUNRISE AGAIN
THIS MORNING, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SLANT-RANGE VIS REDUCTIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MAIN CONCERNS FOR
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS/MICROBURSTS BETWEEN 21Z-1Z.
SHOWER COVERAGE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE THAN SUNDAY, WITH KAPA
HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9
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