825
FXUS65 KBOU 100716
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
116 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN FUEL-
PRONE AREAS TODAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING BRIEF HEAT RELIEF
FOR THURSDAY, WARMER AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN STARTING SUNDAY, WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF ABOUT 20 TO 30
MPH. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ON THE PLAINS. WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY CLOUDS OR A SHEAR ZONE, SUCH AS WHAT
OCCURRED ON TUESDAY. THE AIR AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER
MEANING THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS OCCURRING FOR THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25 (EXCEPT FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN PLACE. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A STRONG JET OVERHEAD WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND
WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KTS IN THE 500 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS FOR THE PLAINS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR
WIND-PRONE AREAS NEAR I-25 NORTH OF FORT COLLINS AND OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES BORDERING WYOMING.
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT TONIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE
POTENT AND THUS WE HAVE NUDGED WIND GUSTS HIGHER. IN GENERAL, WINDS
SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS COULD EVEN REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY
NUDGED DOWN THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR THE PLAINS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION COULD COME LATE ON SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM CANADA. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING. TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A DECENT SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW, THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH AND
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND THUS KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE PLAINS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AND CENTER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RETURN US TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WEAK COOL FRONT IS BRINGING A SURGE OF N-NE WINDS TO START THIS
PERIOD, BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TO
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY 09Z. THEN WINDS SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE SW TOWARD 15Z BEFORE STRONGER MIXING OCCURS. THERE IS
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF MIXING AND ARRIVAL OF GUSTY
W-NW WINDS. GIVEN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE, THERE'S ALSO GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE THOSE WINDS VERSUS WHAT HAPPENED
TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE WIND INCREASE WOULD BE
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AT BJC, 16Z-18Z AT APA, AND 18Z-20Z AT DEN. AFTER
WINDS INCREASE, MOST GUSTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 26-32 KTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03-05Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ANY
POST-FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH 09Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY EAST OF
KDEN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
PLAINS TODAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FROM 12PM
TO 8PM TODAY FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 AND UPGRADED LINCOLN COUNTY
AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY TO BE INCLUDED IN THIS RED FLAG WARNING.
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND NORTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA FOR TODAY, SO WE HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE. SOME SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN DURATION AND
SCOPE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ240>248-250-251.
DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...MV
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