350
FXUS65 KBOU 091130
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
530 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR AND DENVER METRO UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH-BASED VIRGA SHOWERS SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES COOL MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FOR TODAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY'S READINGS, BUT THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THIS WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOPPING 100 DEGREES. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DCAPE
VALUES WILL BE 700-1100 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (ABOUT
100 J/KG LESS THAN YESTERDAY), SO WE EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AGAIN. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 30-45 MPH
BEING MUCH MORE COMMON.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LESS SMOKE COULD PUSH SOME
LOCATIONS ABOVE 100 DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
90-120 PERCENT OF NORMAL BOTH DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION, MAINTAINING A
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD PUSHING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 130-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. DETAILS ON
WHICH DAY(S) WILL SEE THE BEST RAINFALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. MAIN TAKE AWAY IS IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY WHERE OR
WHEN, HOWEVER, THE THREAT EXISTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE APPROACH VISIBILITY MAY BE
AFFECTED AGAIN, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 14Z, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THEY TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH BY 18-19Z. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN,
BRINGING LOCALLY STRONG MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS.
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE MORE COMMON. CHANCES FOR MICROBURSTS AND
WIND SHIFTS AT THE DEN AIRPORTS ARE VERY LIKELY (75-85 PERCENT),
MAINLY BETWEEN 20-24Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ038>040.
DISCUSSION...BM
AVIATION...BM
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