868
FXUS65 KBOU 111132
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
532 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH SLICK TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
END EARLY THIS MORNING.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SUCCESSIVE DOWNSLOPE
WIND EVENTS IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENT TRENDS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO OUR SHORT-TERM FORECAST
GRIDS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE EXPANSIVE WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS,
SO HAVE INTRODUCED HIGHER POPS AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1", MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES. IN THE MOUNTAINS, 2-5" CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE PASSES. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
AROUND 3AM WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT COOLER HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50'S FOR THE PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND THE
JET WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE JUST TO OUR NORTH, AND WITH QUITE
EFFICIENT MIXING, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND ALSO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS, WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
HEALTHY AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT RAPID STRENGTHENING OF EAST-WEST
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, SET TO PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CROSS-
BARRIER FLOW UP TO 65 KTS IS INDICATED. CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST
MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING NEAR DAYBREAK, WITH THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED OVER OUR FOOTHILLS ABOVE 7,500 FT, WHERE
THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 80-90 MPH IS HIGH (75%). THERE'S
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO INVERSION PLACEMENT AND DURATION
HOWEVER, AND WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME SUBOPTIMAL (I.E. MORE
NORTHWESTERLY) ABOVE ~600MB FOR DOWNWIND AMPLIFICATION, WHICH
NOTABLY LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STRONG GUSTS MATERIALIZING FOR
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
STILL MAINTAIN THE CORE OF THESE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS, BUT WE'VE
SEEN GUIDANCE CHANGE QUICKLY IN THE PAST WITHIN THE 12-24 HOURS
PRECEDING THE ONSET OF WIND EVENTS, SO WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN OUR
CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-25 WITH THIS
POTENTIAL IN MIND. AS IS TYPICAL, THE HIGHWAY 93 CORRIDOR WOULD BE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO INCURSIONS OF VERY STRONG GUSTS, IF THAT
OCCURS. IN ANY CASE, MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE
EXPOSED TO FINGERS OF AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-50
MPH) THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN RENEWED LOW HUMIDITY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX FRIDAY, BUT WE'LL REMAIN UNDER A WARM AND
DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW REGIME, WITH HEALTHY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING. AS
SUCH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DESPITE SOME
MODERATION IN THE PEAK STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.
OUR NEXT WIND EVENT ARRIVES SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS NUDGES THE JET STREAM SOUTHWARD OVER COLORADO.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE EXPANSIVE SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS, AND WE'LL BE PLENTY DRY AND
WARM. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MANY AREAS, INCLUDING OUR
PLAINS, MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND BE PRIMARILY BORA-DRIVEN AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT DESCENDS
INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SNOWFALL CHANCES
IN OUR HIGH COUNTRY BY SATURDAY EVENING AND, IF MOISTURE CAN
SURVIVE, POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS WELL OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY (~60% CHANCE). DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN HOLD ON TO UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
MOUNTAIN SNOW COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN QUICKLY FOR
MONDAY WITH RAPID WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
PATCHES OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ERODING THROUGH 15Z AS A
DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF NORTHERLY WINDS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-26 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 20-21Z, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO MAGNITUDE
AND EXACT DIRECTION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY AT KBJC. EVEN AT KDEN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KTS AND TURN MORE EASTERLY 22Z-24Z. THEN LOOK FOR A
GRADUAL E-SE-S TURN 01Z-04Z, AND THEN HOLD S-SSW THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. EYES WILL TURN TOWARD POTENTIAL STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FOR
LATER THURSDAY ON SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITY
LOWERING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15% ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT MIXING TO LEAD TO A WINDOW OR BREEZIER
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. PATCHY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE THUS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS
OF OUR PLAINS TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SPATIAL EXTENT OR
DURATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES.
ON THURSDAY, A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH FOR
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHERE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
NEAR 15%. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
PLAINS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35-45 MPH EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH SOME MODERATION IN
PEAK WINDS, BUT STILL RETAINING SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30-45 MPH FOR
PARTS OF THE PLAINS, URBAN CORRIDOR AND LOWER FOOTHILLS WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE LOW.
ANOTHER WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER GUSTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT, BEFORE A POTENT
FRONT BRINGS A SURGE OF STRONG WINDS LATE IN THE DAY. DRY DAYTIME
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ033>036.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ038-039-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ238-239.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ240-242>245-248>251.
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...BRQ
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