383
FXUS65 KBOU 232159
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
259 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019
LAST NIGHTS STORM IS NOW FAR INTO EASTERN KANSAS LEAVING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. DOWNWARD QG MOTION IS INCREASING OVER
THE AREA, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPING EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES,
FAVORING WEST SLOPES IN THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
PLAINS, RESULTING IN MODERATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT URBAN CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY BOULDER
AREAS AND NORTH DUE TO LESS SNOW COVER. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 35 TO
45 MPH RANGE. WEST OF THE DIVIDE, IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH PARK WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL BE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE A COLD PUSH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO KEEP
LESS THAN FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THAT AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CALM
WEATHER DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH MOST
OF THE MOISTURE HOLDING JUST NORTH OF COLORADO, BUT THERE WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. LEE
TROUGHING BARELY MAKES IT EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, SO
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE TO 40
KNOTS IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
AMPLIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODERATE MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE
LAYER. PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH 60-70 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND WIND PRONE AREAS. MOST OF THIS SHOULD STAY UP HIGH,
HOWEVER, AS WE'RE STILL TRYING TO RID OURSELVES OF THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL SEE WARMING, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR, WITH COOLER READINGS FARTHER EAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A
SURGE OF COLDER AIR LATE IN THE DAY, AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS GETS A
WEAK PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE WARMUP SHOULD RESUME
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE LEE TROUGHING EXPECTED, BUT WE'RE STILL
UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE REAL WARMING WILL MAKE IT. THEN ANOTHER
SLOSH OF ARCTIC AIR MAY OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BEHIND
A PASSING NORTHERN U.S. SHORT WAVE. OVERALL, OUR CONFIDENCE FOR
WARMING IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS/I-25 CORRIDOR IS PRETTY GOOD, BUT
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WE'LL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF ARCTIC AIR AND A DEEPER SNOW
COVER.
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE DO SEE SOME MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
THROUGH SOME FLAT RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY, SO WE'LL KEEP A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN FORECAST THEN. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BY LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE ATTEMPTS TO BREAK INTO THE
FLAT RIDGING.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS BEING WATCHED FOR SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST WE'LL BE OPEN
TO A COLDER ARCTIC SURGE AGAIN, WHILE AN MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION BACK TO COLD AND SNOWIER
WEATHER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2019
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST
AS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIDN'T MIX OUT AS WIDESPREAD AS
THOUGHT EARLIER, LEAVING DEN OUT OF THEM UNTIL JUST RECENTLY.
WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NEAR APA, WILL BEGIN DECREASING
AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT AT KBJC WHERE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRAINAGE AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS WILL STAY
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
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