560  
FXUS65 KBOU 220218  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
818 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
RIDGE ALOFT STILL CENTERED OVER COLORADO BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROF WHICH IS OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT SOME  
INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT AND  
MORE SO ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, NO CHANGES  
NEEDED IN ONGOING FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
STATE WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. A WEAK  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO  
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH  
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. ON MONDAY, THE FLOW  
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE  
EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION  
TO A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND  
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. I BACKED OF THE  
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE  
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM BY LATE AFTERNOON,  
AFTER 21Z. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT  
STILL MILD ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE UNDER THIS PATTERN.  
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HEATING AND RESULT IN COOLER  
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST  
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS  
TIME, THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST, THE AIRMASS WILL BE MILD. EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO  
REMAIN HIGH, 9000 TO 10000 FEET MSL.  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL  
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS  
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO RESTRICTION. AT THE  
TERMINALS, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHERLY BUT THERE IS A WEAK SURGE  
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY BACK INTO KDEN TOWARDS 04Z. THERE IS A  
WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND IT AND SO HAVE REFLECTED  
THE SHIFT IN THE LATEST TAF AT KDEN. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WIND  
SHIFT MAKES IT INTO APA/BJC AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND  
CHANGE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO DRAINAGE  
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE MORE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE  
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...ENTREKIN  
SHORT TERM...COOPER  
LONG TERM...MEIER  
AVIATION...ENTREKIN  
 
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