548
FXUS65 KBOU 241745
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN ENDING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER BY 15Z THIS
MORNING.
- BECOMING WINDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, AND TURNING
COLDER.
- SOME MODERATION WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
- FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING THE CENTER OF UPPER
LOW JUST GETTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. THE AREA OF
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA'S EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND SHOULD BE ENDED OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER BY 15Z
THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPING WIND SET-UP BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GRIDS HAVE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AS A RESULT. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT
AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT, TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES BY LATER IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME COLD AIR LOOKS TO GET INTO
THE CWA AS WELL.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING IN
PARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET (WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET)
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM T-3" FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO
RIDGETOPS AND HIGH PASSES, WITH SLICK ROADS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO DIABATIC COOLING, SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON
GRASS TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IF THAT PANS OUT.
FOR THE PLAINS, RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
FAVORS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
ENSEMBLE'S 25TH-75TH QPF PERCENTILES RANGE BETWEEN 0.1"-0.5", BUT
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A NARROW BAND OF 0.75" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE
TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT CUT OFF IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TOWARDS DENVER METRO/I-25 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF DIA. BEST CASE
SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WET THE GROUND.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRAVELS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING NORTH OF US, MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE CONCERN
FOR THE STRONG WINDS (>60 MPH) HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. MOST
LIKELY, WE WILL STILL BE WINDY ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE TYPICAL WIND
PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING MORNING LOWS TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE PLAINS AND
TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S (20S TO 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY). WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK, WITH MOST OF FORECAST AREA WAKING UP
TO TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WE WILL BEGIN WARMING
UP FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND ABOUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 50S) FOR
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED THIS WEEKEND AS WE LIKELY GET
OUR FIRST TRUE TASTE OF WINTER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARDS A SYSTEM BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS ON THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SINCE YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS A FASTER TRACK, SO WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION BY
EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR FOR
SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN THIS PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO ONLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH SUNDAY
HAVING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT DEN AND APA. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNSET (00Z). AS A
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, GUSTIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
MIX DOWN THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 02-06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 16Z. A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AT DEN AND APA OUT OF THE NE AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT BJC. GUSTS DURING THE DAY SHOULD STAY
LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......66
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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