889
FXUS65 KBOU 161140
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
440 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
- VERY WINDY WITH CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER FOOTHILLS EASTWARD
ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
MONDAY, BEFORE A STRETCH OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF
COLORADO.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO A FEW GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS IS
TYPICALLY A FAIRLY SHELTERED WIND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF THE DENVER
METRO AND NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME
SORT OF SHEAR ZONE OR DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
THAT SHOULD LIMIT WIND GUST POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF I-76, AND
THUS WE'VE CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE DENVER METRO
AND MORGAN COUNTY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTS OUT OF THE
PARENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE IS A TOUCH SLOWER
DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE MAIN CHANGE IN THIS
PERIOD WAS TO PUSH THE START OF THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BACK
A FEW HOURS. WE EXPECT THAT THE INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
WE'LL SEE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A POTENT, 180KT JET STREAK... IN ADDITION TO INCREASING QG
ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG). THOUGH MOISTURE DEPTHS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY WARM, THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS (WITH 0-2KM MEAN WIND CLOSE TO 35-45KT)
COULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. I'M NOT SURE IF THIS TAKES MORE
OF A CLASSIC SNOW "SQUALL" APPEARANCE OR IS SIMPLY A WELL
ORGANIZED PUSH OF SNOW... BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON SNOW SHOULD
TRANSITION TOWARDS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WITH A FEW TRANSIENT BANDS
OF HEAVIER SNOW.
MEANWHILE, THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED FIRE DANGER AND STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS A
LITTLE FASTER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE,
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE TRENDING A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER WINDS FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE INTO WASHINGTON/LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH, WE DID EXPAND
THE HIGH WIND WATCH A BIT WHERE GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS AT SOME
60-65 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DAY, BUT THAT
IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE STRONGER, BUT ALSO LOOKS TO TRACK JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
NORTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIND WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE PLAINS, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF WHEREVER THE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS.
ONE LAST WEAKER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT THERE
IS FAR LESS CONSISTENCY ACROSS FORECAST GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD.
SOME MODELS STILL TRY TO GET SOME WINTRY PRECIP INTO THE PLAINS
WITH THAT WAVE, THOUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE DENVER METRO OR
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DO AT LEAST LOOK MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL... AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY. DESPITE A
SEVERAL DAY LEAD TIME, THERE IS A STRONG ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BY LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. AT DEN
AND APA, SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING (15-16Z) AND THEN TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHEN. A DENVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE
BECAUSE OF THIS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS
EASTWARDS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY 21-23Z
AS THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA. WINDS THEN
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE DIRECTION 01-03Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT. BETWEEN 15-18Z TUESDAY, A HARD
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WEST WINDS CONTINUE BLOW TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO GO, BEFORE THE PATTERN SLOWLY IMPROVES BY MID/LATE
WEEK.
MONDAY'S FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD, WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS SETUP TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A
PRONOUNCED SHEAR ZONE OR DENVER CYCLONE, KEEPING MOST OF THE
DENVER METRO (FZ239/240) ON THE CALMER, COOLER SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL
LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS, FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS EAST
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT PLAINS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY
OF MODEL FORECASTS, THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
DENVER METRO (FZ240) AND MORGAN COUNTY (FZ244) WAS CANCELLED.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH INCREASED MIXING AS A BORA DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A
QUESTION MARK AND IS THE PRIMARY REASON WE HAVE NOT UPGRADED TO
RED FLAG WARNINGS YET. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BROAD GRADIENT OF RH
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS STILL BROAD SUPPORT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALMOST ANY LOCATION BELOW ~7000FT. NEARLY
EVERY MEMBER OF THE GEFS HWDI IS WELL ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE
FOR ANY GRID POINT IN THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE HIGHER
END OF THE MODEL DISTRIBUTION, PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF SINGLE
DIGIT RH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE EXISTING
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED, BUT I WANTED THE FULL DAY
CREW TO HAVE ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE TRYING TO REFINE THE DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
THE LEE CYCLONE STARTS TO SINK SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN DURING THE DAY,
BUT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. RATHER THAN TRY TO GUESS ON ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGHLIGHTS, WE OPTED TO JUST WAIT THIS OUT ANOTHER CYCLE
AS WELL.
A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK... AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ033-034.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ215-216-238>251.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ216-241-245>247-249.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ042-044>049.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...HIRIS
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