704
FXUS65 KBOU 120931
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
331 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY
AND POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- TRENDING COOLER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL BE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND DEVELOPS, PEAKING BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT'S STILL DRY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES STRUGGLING TO RECOVER ACROSS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 20%-40%, AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE OBSERVED IN OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
VALUES RANGE FROM 30%-40%. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT BACK
UP TO SUMMER-LIKE VALUES TODAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS 40KT TO 50KT,
500 MB ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, WHERE THE POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
WHILE WINDS AND RH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICAL
AT THIS TIME WHERE THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL COINCIDE.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WE ARE EXPECTING RH VALUES TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
CHANCE (~20%) THAT SOME OF THE GUSTIER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, IT WOULDN'T BE FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO
WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON IF THIS HAPPENS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
BACK FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, DESPITE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THOUGH OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
STILL SEE RH DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WHERE WE WILL SEE
WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
ELEVATED TO PATCHY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
IN THESE LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL START TO SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
POTENTIAL, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR WILL STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH, DROPPING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES ACROSS
GUIDANCE WITH HOW MUCH WE COOL, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS SO HAVE STARTED TO BLEND COOLER TEMPS IN WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE NBM WILL TREND COOLER IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DRIER OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AREAS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE, BUT QPF
TOTALS DON'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE.
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
ENSEMBLES SHOW MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS PUSHING TOWARDS THE TRIPLE-DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT, WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRANSITION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (AROUND 8Z).
WITH THE SOUTHERLY TURNING WE ANTICIPATE SOME ENHANCEMENT, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT KDEN/KAPA THROUGH ABOUT
12-14Z. CONFIDENCE DWINDLES BEYOND THE MORNING, AS HI-RES MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNDERPERFORMING WITH REGARDS TO GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THEY PORTRAY THIS
HAPPENING AGAIN TODAY, WITH WNW GUSTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS
BY 20-21Z, WE CONTINUE TO STEER OUR FORECAST MORE TOWARDS MOS AND
CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARDS WINDS TURNING TOWARDS THE NE
TO SE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KDEN/KAPA WITH MUCH LIGHTER
SPEEDS. KBJC WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME OF THE
STRONGER GUSTS, SO HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO FOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE STANDS AT A 60% CHANCE FOR THE CURRENT
TAF TO PAN OUT, AND ABOUT 30% THE GUSTY WNW WINDS MIX DOWN. IF THE
STRONGER WINDS WIN OUT, SHOULD SEE THEM DIMINISH BETWEEN 0-2Z AND
TURN TOWARDS DRAINAGE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9
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