831
FXUS65 KBOU 141818
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1118 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50% CHANCE) ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME AREAS REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
THE FORECAST HAS REMAINED LARGELY ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY SOUTH INTO LINCOLN COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS JUST EAST OF DIA MAY SEE A QUICK FEW
HUNDREDTHS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION READING
AROUND 40-50 DBZ ON KFTG. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MILD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN UPDATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT WAS THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS, AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS COINCIDING WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-45 MPH, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, WITH INCREASING WINDS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS, WHERE 35-45 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE FORECAST.
WHILE WINDS WON'T BE AT HIGH WIND CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS, THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO HAVE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AS RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
POTENTIAL UPGRADES LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DEW POINT READINGS ARE ABOUT 10-15 F HIGHER IN ITS
WAKE. THE WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS UP INTO
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA PUSHING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. I WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS, SKY, POPS AND TEMPERATURES
BASED ON REALITY AS WELL THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON. MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEING FUNNELED AROUND THE HIGH
AND THEN TRAVELING SOUTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT. A BRIEF GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH A FEW WEAK RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN A TENTH INCH. THE CLOUDS LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
WRAPPED UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
STRENGTHENING FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY
WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND COLD
FRONTS GRAZING EASTERN COLORADO. ONE ON SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING TO THE
WEST CUTTING OFF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING
TO FORECAST. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA, AND A SLIGHT
MODEL ADJUSTMENT WESTWARD WOULD BRING COLDER AIR TO INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT TIMES BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS. THE WARM DAYS (SUNDAY AND
MAYBE TUESDAY) HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. HIGHS ON THE COOLER/COLDER DAYS MAY ONLY REACH THE 40S AND
POSSIBLY ONLY 30S OVER THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO NORTHERLY BY 19Z AND WILL STRENGTHEN AROUND 20Z TO
10-12 KNOTS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (20%) THAT NORTHERLY
WINDS NEVER DEVELOP AT DEN AND APA.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING AND THEN DRAINAGE WILL
DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS IN THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND WILL BE LIGHT AT DEN AND APA.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (90%) THAT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ238-242>245.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-048>051.
UPDATE...9
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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