410
FXUS65 KBOU 181140
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
540 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 7 AM.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY
10MPH OR LESS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8AM TO
9AM ACROSS THE PLAINS, INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MODELS
HAVE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO STAY TO OUR EAST,
BUT 40MPH 700MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THEY MOVE EAST
WITH THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT MIXING IN THE
EARLY MORNING, BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WE COULD START TO SEE SOME
OF THOSE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE BEFORE THEY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM RHS BELOW 15% FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS, WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
FROM 1PM TO 7PM SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO SIT OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST LEADING UP TO THIS
POINT, WILL START TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE EXACT PATH OF THE TROUGH
IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO IMPACT OUR AREA
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, CHANCES ARE LOW (<35%) FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER. A SURFACE FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS (ALTHOUGH IS STILL DOESN'T LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY AROUND HALF
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING PRECIP TO THE PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY AND
MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND THE HORN FROM W TO N TO E NOW THROUGH 00Z.
AT DEN STARTING AROUND 14Z NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE, TURNING NORTH BY 18Z AND DROPPING TO 7-10 KTS. THEY SHOULD
BE UNDER 10 KTS AND EAST AROUND 00Z. SSW DRAINAGE WINDS RETURN
AFTER 06Z AT AROUND 12KTS. APA WILL ALSO SEE NW WINDS AROUND 14Z,
GOING NORTH AND BECOMING 5-8 KTS AFTER 17Z. SOUTH DRAINAGE WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 06Z AS WELL. FINALLY, AT BJC, WEST
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
SETTLING ON EAST AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SW DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ242-244-248>251.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...SCHLATTER
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