607  
FXUS65 KBOU 251814  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
1214 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
 
- SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS  
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER.  
 
- DRIER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ONLY  
ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025  
 
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOME OF THE PLAINS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED OF VARIOUS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND  
SOUNDINGS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 816 AM MDT...  
 
THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY,  
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL (2"+) AND DAMAGING WINDS  
(60-70 MPH)OUR MAIN FOCUS, HOWEVER, A TORNADO STILL CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THAT MAY  
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE SOME  
IMPACTS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF STORMS, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING  
CONVECTION TO BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 1-2PM) AND MOVE  
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND METRO DENVER FAIRLY EARLY AFTER  
INITIATION BEGINS. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL-CAPPED  
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS  
WILL ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE,  
WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE  
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE  
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS, NOT  
TOO SHABBY FOR COLORADO! TODAY WILL BE A GOOD DAY TO KEEP VEHICLES  
PARKED IN THE GARAGE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER  
ALERTS! SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS GRIDS THIS  
MORNING, BUT GENERALLY THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
UPDATED DISCUSSION ISSUED 231 PM MDT...  
SHORT TERM...  
 
AS OF 130 PM CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND  
IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE  
CAP IS ERODING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND WE ARE STILL EXPECTING  
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,  
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING SEVERE STATUS. THE SPC HAS ISSUED  
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR LOWER  
ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. AS DESTABILIZATION  
CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WE ARE EXPECTING STORMS TO  
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LARGE HAIL (1.5" TO 2.5") AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (60 TO 70 MPH),  
WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO TO TOUCH DOWN.  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY AROUND 6  
PM THIS EVENING, WHERE THEY WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE,  
WITH WIND BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONCERN AS THEY MOVE INTO  
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY, ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN  
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED, WITH THE RIGHT  
ENTRANCE OF A NEAR 100 KT JET MOVING OVER COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY, AND A SURFACE LOW IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE SPC  
PLACING OUR NORTHEASTERN CORNER IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON (~2000 J/KG MLCAPE), THERE  
IS A CHANCE THAT EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL LIMIT MORNING SURFACE  
HEATING, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CAP TO GET THINGS  
STARTED. IF THE CAP IS BROKEN, A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE  
HAIL AND WINDS, MAINLY FROM EASTERN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES  
EASTWARD.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEK, AS WE TRANSITION TO A WEAK ZONAL FLOW. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS  
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY THIS  
WEEKEND. THERE'S A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOW/MID 90S  
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT DECREASES QUITE A  
BIT IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME  
WEAK SHOWERS OR A STORM.  
 
MOISTURE DOES ATTEMPT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY OR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS A LITTLE MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN  
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A BIT BUT  
MID/UPPER 80S ARE STILL FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025  
 
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER  
THE FOOTHILLS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS  
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20-00Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS  
ARE POSSIBLE BUT GUSTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS.  
ONCE THE STORMS PASS, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT TONIGHT AND FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO  
DRYING AIR. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS TOMORROW.  
 
 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE.......RJK  
DISCUSSION...BONNER/HIRIS  
AVIATION...DANIELSON  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab CO Page
Main Text Page