593
FXUS65 KBOU 231144
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
444 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WELL INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024 AVIATION:
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS A SURGE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVED INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW. RADAR AND CAMERAS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS HERE AND THERE CURRENTLY, BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S INTO THE LOWER 40S
OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS HOUR.
THERE IS BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOR THE CWA EARLY TODAY, WITH
UPPER TROUGHING GETTING INTO COLORADO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS HAVE WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY
FOR THE CWA TODAY, THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT. NOTHING VERY
STRONG EITHER WAY.
FOR MOISTURE, THERE IS PLENTY PROGGED FOR THE THE CWA TODAY WELL
INTO TONIGHT. IT IS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, WITH SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT FOR SNOWFALL TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
NORTHWESTERLY RIDGE TOP FLOW ISN'T VERY STRONG. HOWEVER, THERE
IS ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING FOR 60-90% POPS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. NO
HIGHLIGHTS. NO POPS FOR THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 1-4 C COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY'S
READINGS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
FOR TUESDAY, THERE'S A SHARP BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SKIES SHOULD
BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN THE SUNSHINE, I DON'T SEE ANY
REASON FOR IT TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION IS
STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
LOW MOVING SOUTH OF US ON WEDNESDAY. THE SLOWING TREND CONTINUES,
AND MOST OF THE VARIATION IN STRENGTH STILL AFFECTS THE GRADIENT
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY WEAK QG
LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE. THERE'S BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DRY SLOT
OVER MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS DO HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS OR IN A
TRANSIENT BAND ROTATING THROUGH THE DRIER AIR. BY THE TIME THIS
PASSES, THE LOW IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD IN THE EVENING. NBM POPS
ARE LIKELY TRAILING THIS TREND, BUT THE EC ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT LOOKS THE MOST FAVORABLE, SO WE'LL LEAVE THE
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR NOW. MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS
ARE ALSO QUITE WARM, WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF -2 TO +2 IN THE
AFTERNOON COOLING ONLY A LITTLE IN THE EVENING, TOO WARM FOR SNOW
ON THE PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. NBM IS STILL GIVING US SNOW LEVELS IN THE 6-7
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, BUT THIS MAY BE A FUNCTION OF DRIER AIR
VERSUS A COOLER ENVIRONMENT.
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS NOW HAVE THE
FRIDAY SHORTWAVE RAMMING INTO THE LOW AHEAD OF IT FORMING A MESSY
TROUGH FOR FRIDAY THAT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF COLORADO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A SHARP
TROUGH AND A SHOWER BAND, AND JUST A WEAK TROUGH. QUITE LIKELY
THAT THERE WILL BE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR THE PLAINS ARE DOUBTFUL. STRONGER SOLUTIONS WOULD
HAVE A SHOWER BAND, SO THE NBM POPS LOOK ALRIGHT. IT MAY BE A
LITTLE COOLER, BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH IF AT ALL.
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, THEN
A BIT LESS WIND AND WARMER SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
THE MODELS SEEMED PRETTY GOOD EARLIER AS NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND
PATTERNS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP AT DIA. WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE IS
PROGGED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHEASTERLIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERN
WINDS ARE A GOOD BET BY MID EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION.....RJK
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