281  
FXUS65 KBOU 111122  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
522 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
 
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PRODUCING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOST DAYS, ALBEIT  
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO  
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS MID-AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE  
REMAINS FAIRLY BULLISH WITH PWAT FORECASTS, WITH UPWARDS OF 1"  
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST SHEAR SHOULD  
KEEP CONVECTION MARGINALLY SEVERE AT MOST, HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE  
WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THUNDERSTORM CORES WHICH WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE LOWER FOOTHILLS INTO  
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND  
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE STORMS WERE  
GUSTING UP TO 65 MPH. EARLIER THIS MORNING, A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS  
RECORDED AT DIA AT 1010Z.  
 
CONCERNING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, MODELS, INCLUDING THE CAMS, ARE ALL INDICATING SCATTERED  
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, BUT ONLY THROUGH THIS EVENING; NO  
LATER THAN 02Z.  
 
THERE WILL BE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY  
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF COLORADO SATURDAY  
MID DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT CAPE. PROGGED PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE OVER 1.00 INCH FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS  
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS ON THE QPF GRIDS ARE PROGGED FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY, LESS  
LATE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE  
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS. POPS WILL BE PRETTY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND  
HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO HAVE POOR INSTABILITY WITH  
LOW CAPE AND A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE.  
 
FOR THE LATER DAYS, MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS  
AROUND ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS  
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH A DECENT COLD  
FRONT TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE CWA. FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED  
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO  
CONTINUE. FOR POPS, MONDAY IS THE DRIEST DAY, WITH SCATTERED  
CONVECTION RELEGATED TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS. LATE DAY CONVECTION  
AND PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY DECENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH  
WEDNESDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME  
BRIEFLY VRB AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS A  
SHIFT TO NNE/NE WINDS NEAR 16Z FOR DENVER AREA TERMINALS. GUSTS  
20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STALLING FRONT  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
BY MID-AFTERNOON, DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST  
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF TERMINAL IMPACTS  
BETWEEN 22-02Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PERIOD OF W/NW OUTFLOW  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ANY CONVECTION APPROACHES, WITH INCREASINGLY  
VRB AND OUTFLOW-DRIVEN WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY AFTER 22Z. THERE'S  
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CONVECTION, WHICH A CHANCE  
(~30%) OF ISO-SCT -TSRA PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING.  
WILL COVER THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR KBJC AND KDEN. SOME FORM OF  
N/NE FLOW IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND LOWER  
CIGS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PARTICULARLY AFTER 08-10Z WITH  
BASES AS LOW AS 010-015.  
 
AS FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE IMPACTING SLANT VISIBILITY, SUSPECT  
DIURNAL WINDS WILL CARRY ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO LIMIT  
SUCH IMPACTS FROM ANY WILDFIRES BURNING IN WESTERN CO AND UT  
TODAY.  
 
 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ  
DISCUSSION...RJK  
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ  
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