039
FXUS65 KBOU 161849
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1249 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY BUT CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ANOTHER FREEZE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A RATHER CHILLY DAY IS UNFOLDING DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AGAIN. MEANWHILE, WE'LL
SEE A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
KEEPING MOST OF DENVER/BOULDER AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. MOST
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF DENVER OBSERVED A HARD KILLING FREEZE LAST
NIGHT (DEEMED AS 28F OR COLDER), SO FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WE
WILL ONLY BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHTS FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE A KILLING
FREEZE DID NOT OCCUR - NAMELY THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. THAT MEANS A FREEZE WARNING FOR SEDGWICK AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES TONIGHT WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERALL, ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THERE WILL JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S
AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY VERY
WELL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE
PULLS NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE WEST COAST.
WE ARE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT, ESPECIALLY AS LATEST ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE
DIVERGING FROM RECENT RUNS, SPLITTING OFF A LEAD SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND COLORADO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
A LINGERING TROUGH HOLDING FARTHER WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITH
MORE SPLITTING BEING SHOWN, THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE DECREASED. THE HIGHEST
ODDS NOW FAVOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO ONCE AGAIN AS MANY OF THE STORMS
HAVE SO FAR IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH NO AVIATION
IMPACTS. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING CLOCKWISE THIS EVENING TO DRAINAGE WINDS.
KBJC SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
COMPARED TO THE OTHER SITES. TOWARDS THE MORNING (~14-17Z), WINDS
WILL TURN VARIABLE BEFORE SETTLING INTO ANOTHER LIGHT E/SE FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...SCHNELL
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