661
FXUS65 KBOU 051134
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
534 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE, AND IS
HELPING SUSTAIN MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60'S
TO LOW 70'S AS OF 3AM FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
INTERESTINGLY, TEMPERATURES IN THE FORT MORGAN AREA WERE HOVERING
NEAR 82F, HAVING INCREASED FIVE DEGREES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1AM,
LIKELY FROM A WEAK HEAT BURST STEMMING FROM DECAYING
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS
A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMA CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO ROTATES NORTH
INTO COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
WILL SURGE AS A RESULT, RISING TO 0.60-0.90" IN THE HIGH COUNTRY,
AND PEAKING BETWEEN 1.10" NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 1.50" AS
YOU NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THESE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. MLCAPE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
ACROSS THE AREA TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE
AFTERNOON, AGAIN BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR MIDDAY AND
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND MUCH GREATER
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG, PARTICULARLY
IN THE PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS,
AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE PLAINS. AS FAR AS BURN SCARS GO, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT
WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY, THE SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
THE 90 DEGREE MARK ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE MID 90'S
IN THE PLAINS. THE HIGH VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WILL MOSTLY STAY
BELOW 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
BURN AREAS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.0-1.4" FOR THE PLAINS AND
UP TO .80" FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE PLACE IN MOST AREAS TO
FURTHER SUPPORT SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE PLAINS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING IN MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW ALOFT. A RESULTING PLUME OF WEAKER MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE PLACE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE IN MOST
AREAS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 60S/70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY WED/THURS.
BY FRIDAY, THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. NAEFS GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
THIS PATTERN WELL WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEMBERS SHOW MAX
TEMPERATURES IN TRIPLE DIGITS WITH OTHERS SHOWING UPPER 90S AT
DEN FOR SATURDAY. BOTTOM LINE, HEAT FOR THIS WEEKEND IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...GET READY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
WITH THIS PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
CURRENT SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND THE DENVER METRO WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF NE WINDS BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BASES LOWERING
TO AROUND 080 AFTER 21-22Z WHEN SCATTERED TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF DENVER TERMINALS THROUGH AS LATE AS 03-04Z. IN THE AFTERNOON,
EXPECT PREVAILING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT. POTENTIAL FOR TS OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL EXIST IN
AND NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THEN EXPECT RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
DRAINAGE FLOW LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VISUAL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS IF
TSRA IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT TODAY COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING FOR AREA BURN SCARS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 0.50"/HR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
WEAKER STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SLOWER MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS, CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL BE LIMITED AS A RESULT.
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM SLOWLY PASSES OVER
A BURN AREA. STARTING THURSDAY, MOISTURE DECREASES REDUCING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FURTHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
HYDROLOGY...RODRIGUEZ/MENSCH
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