534
FXUS65 KBOU 191842
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1242 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING, WITH A COUPLE
SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY PALMER DIVIDE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
- SUMMER HEAT AND DRIER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND HOLDS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WE ARE SEEING DRYING
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE PLAINS. BEST
MLCAPE IS DEVELOPING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY, WHERE MLCAPE HAS GROWN TO 1000-1500
J/KG. FARTHER NORTH, THE DRYING WILL LIMIT OVERALL MLCAPE TO JUST
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THUS, THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE FROM THE CREST OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH,
MAINLY ISOLATED AND LESS INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE IS
STILL SOME WEAK SUPPORT/INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET AXIS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END LATEST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY AND A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF FULL SUMMER HEAT, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE EVEN FURTHER WARMING,
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S WELL AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE.
LOOKING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES WERE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES
EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD. THAT WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL ON AVERAGE. THAT
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY, AT LEAST ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD - WHICH SHOULD BE BY SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THAT'S WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADA BORDER AREA,
LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. THAT COMPONENT
WOULD ALSO AID AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFTING EASTWARD
ONTO THE PLAINS.
THAT SAME RELATIVE WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH SUPPORTS DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH MEANS
A DAY OR TWO SHOULD SEE HIGHS SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT (<8KT) AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. DUE
TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS, WE EXPECT
WIND DIRECTION TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN TODAY,
SHIFTING TO THE NE-E-SE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS AT THE MOMENT, THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z. WE HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR
THE THREE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS UP TO 35KT EVEN IF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE DENVER METRO. KAPA WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING A THUNDERSTORM AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME REINFORCED (10-15KT) FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT AROUND 03Z-06Z DUE TO STORM ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER
THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. WEAK DRAINAGE S/SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE ~15Z THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page