485
FXUS65 KBOU 222319
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
519 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT COOLER, WETTER WEATHER
LIKELY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM-UP LIKELY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SPECIFICALLY
PARK COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA TRY AND MOVE OFF O THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW, THE RAIN IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE GROUND, BUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 12,500FT TO 13,000FT TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS
DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT UPPER LEVELS, PUTTING 700MB WINDS AROUND 25KTS TO
40KTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS
TO OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON, CREATING GUSTS AROUND
25 TO 40MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-76.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY,
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY MID SATURDAY MORNING,
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY FROM
THE SOUTH, LEADING TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS THE INITIAL
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD START TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH COVERING
MORE OF OUR AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS QG
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND
RAIN AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WHEREVER THAT FRONT SETS UP FOR
SATURDAY (WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA). AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE THE FURTHER NORTH WE GO FROM THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CLOSER TO 9,000FT AS THE COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOWER END (<2 INCHES),
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOSQUITO RANGE
AREA.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A REENFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ON MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY, BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK . THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. THE EURO IS A BIT SLOWER
TRACKING EAST, WHICH KEEPS UPPER FORCING AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER,
EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE COULD ALSO SEE A
FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES ENDING
LATE SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, LEADING TO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER OCCASIONAL CIGS WITH BASES 070-080 CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY WAVE OF WEAK SHRA LOOKS
POSSIBLE IN THE 04-08Z TIMEFRAME THIS EVENING (~30% CHANCE), WHICH
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF BREEZIER SW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, EXPECTED STEADY S/SW FLOW OF 10-15 KTS FOR KDEN/KAPA, WITH A
MARKED INCREASE FRI AM. IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS 22-28 KTS WILL IMPACTS KDEN
AND KAPA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH KBJC REMAINING MUCH MORE ON THE
FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WINDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...BRQ
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