042
FXUS65 KBOU 110729
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
129 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN TODAY BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- TRENDING COOLER FOR SATURDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
- A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN STARTING SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO COLD FRONTS CURRENTLY IN OUR
AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ONGOING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20S BEHIND THESE FRONTS.
THE FIRST FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DENVER METRO WHILE THE
SECOND FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THE
COOLER AIR IS SITUATED BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. THESE FRONTS WILL
BRIEFLY KICK UP WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS,
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY TODAY THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR
THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
IN SPEED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS IS
LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIND GUSTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS, AND EASTERN PLAINS UP TO ABOUT 40 MPH ON
FRIDAY. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR NORTH PARK AND MIDDLE PARK. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW COULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED ON SATURDAY, BUT ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW
INDICATING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS, WE HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND DRIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH MANY AREAS NOW EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN
0.10". AS OF NOW, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH CAPE LOOKING QUITE LOW. SUNDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR THE
PLAINS. MONDAY COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW- AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MODELS. IN GENERAL, WE
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR MID NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD
INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN UNDER ANOTHER TROUGHING
REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH AS OF 06Z, WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 18-26 KTS BEHIND IT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN WINDS 07Z-0830Z BEFORE A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS TO 28-32 KTS POSSIBLE. THEN WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 11Z, AND MAY EVEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VRB ESPECIALLY AT KBJC AND KAPA. THEN A STEADIER NE WIND (MORE E
AT KBJC) AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ANTICYCLONIC
UPSLOPE PATTERN, SWITCHING TO MORE EASTERLY 20Z-24Z. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN MORE SE BY 03Z-04Z FRIDAY BEFORE MORE S WINDS AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AS THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DECREASES INTO THE TEENS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER TEENS. WE HAVE KEPT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTH PARK AND
MIDDLE PARK. THE FUEL STATUS FROM OUR PARTNERS INDICATES THAT
THESE LOCATIONS ARE THE DRIEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SPOTTY FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN DURATION AND SCOPE.
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, THUS WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ211-213.
DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...MV
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