709
FXUS65 KBOU 220638
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1138 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER BIG WARM-UP FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS MID-WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE PLAINS THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING, WITH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US. WHILE THE WEATHER HERE IN COLORADO WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING
THAN WINTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD, BRINGING IMPACTFUL
WINTER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WHILE WINTER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, HERE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES EDGING CLOSER TO
RECORD-HIGH VALUES THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE START OF THE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB
TEMPS WARM BY ABOUT 8-10C OVER SATURDAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR-NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEARING 50F. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
EXIT THE PNW, AND TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 300% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO PEAK A
TAD SHY OF COINCIDING WITH THE GREATEST FORCINGS, BUT BETWEEN
OROGRAPHICS, POTENT 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND A NEAR 80KT 700MB
JET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, WE SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONS TO OUR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK, WITH A CHANCE AT VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
AS WE ARE ALL BECOMING TOO FAMILIAR WITH THIS WINTER, PERSISTENT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS, ARE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND
ARE ALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES
MONDAY WILL START TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY,
WITH ONLY SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION,
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING HOW FAR DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE THE STRONGEST WINDS GET. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
UPWARDS TREND WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE TREND CONTINUES IN THIS FASHION, THIS
COULD BRING THE NEED FOR BOTH HIGH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ON TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS. STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL LEAD TO THE MAJORITY OF
THE PLAINS SEEING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN DRAINAGE FLOW AND A VERY WEAK CYCLONE, BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. A TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST IS LIKELY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO DRAINAGE SUNDAY
EVENING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST, BUT
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...HIRIS
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