704
FXUS65 KBOU 182147
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
347 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
- WARMER AND DRIER TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 90S CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS, AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. GREATER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MLCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, BUT COLORADO IS JUST ON
THE FRINGES OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/SHEAR LINE,
KEEPING THE THREAT LIMITED. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM
110-150% OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A DRYLINE, MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2400 J/KG, AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 45-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORNER WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS PUT US
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS) FROM LOGAN COUNTY EASTWARD, WITH A MARGINAL WEST TO I-25,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE MAKES IT COULD LEAD TO A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SEVERE
RISK.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE,
WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
WITH SOME SPILLING ONTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL US AMPLIFIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE AND DECREASING MOISTURE TO START THE WEEK WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
PERSISTENT HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
NNE PUSH IS EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL WELD COUNTY BY 20Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON, 30-35KT GUSTY
OUTFLOWS AND DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PASSING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 3Z
TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS TO THE E AND NE MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BONNER
AVIATION...BONNER
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