592
FXUS65 KBOU 131732
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST WED NOV 12 2025
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A BROAD RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
MILD TODAY. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD HAS KEPT HIGHS COOLER
IN BOULDER, ERIE, AND MORE LOCATIONS TOWARDS GREELEY.
FOR THOSE WANTING TO SEE THE AURORA BOREALIS TONIGHT, THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT A GOOD SIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
IS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE STATE OF UTAH AND IS HEADED OUR WAY
THIS EVENING. CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOME BREAKS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH
COULD KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF THERE
AREN'T ANY HIGH CLOUDS, HIGHS COULD NEAR RECORDS WITH THE MID 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR DENVER IS 75 TOMORROW AND 79 ON
FRIDAY, WITH BOTH BEING WITHIN REACH.
FROM PAST FORECASTS, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT
WARMER. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR DENVER HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
HIGH AROUND 70 EACH DAY. THIS IS BECAUSE A CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND WILL MOVES TOWARDS
UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EXTEND ONTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL AT LEAST HAVE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE
PLAINS WILL SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE
10,000 FT AGL FOR THE DENVER TAF SITES. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW WE'VE
NEARLY BROKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND W/NW FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK. WITH FURTHER MIXING, EXPECT W/NW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE OF VRB WINDS OR
EVEN A WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST RIBBONS OR
CHANNELS OF W/NW WINDS. WE THEN EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VRB
BY 00Z BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL S/SW WINDS BY 02Z. THOSE WINDS
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...20
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