612
FXUS65 KBOU 081732
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1132 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. COOL, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS REACHING UP TO THE HIGH 60S
TO LOW 70S. WITH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE
(<20% CHANCE) OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER, WITH A BIT MORE STABILITY ON
FRIDAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TREK
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY
BUILDING UP TO 200-600 J/KG, WITH EBWD AROUND 30 KTS AND DCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1200 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AT TIMES, AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. BEHIND THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS >80F ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY(S) OF THE
WEEK WILL BE MONDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY (DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE), WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH UP TO THE LOW 90S IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. MONITORING FOR ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY MONDAY
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP IN THE LOW TEENS,
WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HOWEVER, MUCH-NEEDED RECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CONCERNS AT BAY FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NE WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL HOLD THROUGH 23Z, BEFORE TURNING CLOCKWISE
00Z-03Z AND EVENTUALLY S-SW BY 06Z. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE SW-W THROUGH 15Z, AND WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
INCREASE FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS BY 18Z-19Z
SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A FRONT OR STRONG OUTFLOW PUSH
WITH G35 KTS AROUND 01Z SUNDAY, BUT GIVEN THESE PUSHES TYPICALLY
OCCUR FASTER THAN MODELED WE HAVE ADDED THAT SHARP SHIFT TO GUSTY
NNE WINDS ~23Z-24Z SATURDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...20
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