499
FXUS65 KBOU 061150
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
550 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (15-30% COVERAGE) FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AND WHAT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WE'LL SEE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT MOISTENING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A FEW LATE
DAY SHOWERS. WHILE MOST OF THOSE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME VIRGA, GUSTY WINDS, AND
EVEN A COUPLE LIGHT LATE DAY SHOWERS SPREADING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
ONTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
TUESDAY WILL START OFF WITH SHALLOW INVERSIONS AND THUS A FAIRLY
QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED AGAIN, SIMILAR TO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY, BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH OPACITY TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR
TWO. THUS, FORECAST HIGHS OF 85-90 SEEM ON TARGET ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY. THAT PUTS US NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN (FOR EXAMPLE,
DENVER'S RECORD IS 87F SET IN 1975 AND 2020 AND WE SHOULD BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OF THAT, FORT COLLINS RECORD OF 85F SET IN 1905
WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN).
WHILE THERE IS JUST SLIGHT COOLING IN THE COLUMN FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WE STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN, CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/LONE STORM MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
AS WE TURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN/NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT'S JUST THAT IN THIS PATTERN WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IT MAKES TIMING OF THESE FRONTAL SURGES
DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THAT IS CLEARLY POINTED OUT IN THE
SUDDEN SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION/INCORPORATION OF HURRICANE RACHEL
REMNANTS. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW/SSW DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
~16Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<10KT) AND TURN NE-E BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS VERY LOW, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE DENVER METRO IF A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
IS ABLE TO SURVIVE EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. A RETURN TO SSW/SW
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KDEN AND KAPA, WITH WEAK
(<06KT) WESTERLY WINDS KBJC.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AA
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