462
FXUS65 KBOU 161120
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
520 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THIS WEEK, WITH HEAT PEAKING WEDNESDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE THEME FOR THIS WEEK IS HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, AND HEAT RISK FOR THE URBAN
CORRIDOR DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS, AND
BETWEEN 60S TO HIGH 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. 700-MB
FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY, HOT, AND WINDY DAY WITH INCREASING
CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS, AND HEAT RISK FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR. WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE
AGAIN STRENGTHEN, WITH 700-MB WINDS INCREASING UP TO 45-55 KTS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND AID IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH UP TO THE
MID 90S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR. HEAT RISK IS UP TO 2, WHICH
CORRELATES TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DG ABOVE NORMAL, A HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE JUST SHY OF OUR CRITERIA. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY (COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING)
WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECASTED IF IT
ARRIVES EARLY. THIS IS FURTHER REFLECTED IN SOME ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TRENDING TOWARDS COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS, WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AND THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. HAVE
OPTED OUT OF EXPANDING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS PARTNERS HAVE
RECENTLY DEEMED FUELS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR AS NOT
CRITICAL. SEE MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS MILD REPRIEVE IN HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST
AND THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SITUATES ITSELF OVER
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT FLATTEN DUE
TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW, NBM HAS 25-35% POPS
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS) WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
POSSIBLY PROVIDING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT (<10 MPH) AT ALL TERMINALS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY 20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST AND COULD GUST UP TO 23 KTS
THROUGH 02Z. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH BJC AS SOME
HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT MAY NOT SEE THESE STRONGER
WINDS UNTIL 23Z-00Z. DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO
11-22%. HOWEVER, THE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE, SO HAVE OPTED OUT OF ANY HEADLINES FOR
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, IF WINDS TURN OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
FOR MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARK, WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A RFW.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15%. IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE
THIS IN MODELS TODAY, AN UPGRADE TO A RFW WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE OPTED OUT ON EXPANDING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH EAST, AS PARTNERS HAVE DEEMED FUELS TO NOT BE
CRITICAL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ211>214-217-218.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MAI
FIRE WEATHER...MAI
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