029
FXUS65 KBOU 232333
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
533 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90'S TO LOWER 100'S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. PWS ARE STILL
SITTING NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT FASTER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, SO STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKER (WHICH WILL HELP
LOWER THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL). HOWEVER, SINCE QUITE A FEW
AREAS HAVE SEEN RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS, CERTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE
LOWER FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS AND WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT MOVES OVER. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT, WE'LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
STORMS FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MICROBURSTS OR STRONG
OUTFLOWS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR
LESS, BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE INCHES
OF RAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SITTING NEAR OR OVER COLORADO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS OF THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS, THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES FOR DENVER ON SUNDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SITTING AT A 30-50% CHANCE OF HIGHS
REACHING 105. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND NE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY IF THE FORECAST HOLDS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT A BIT MORE EAST AND
SOUTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO LET A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD ALSO START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HELPING
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS ARE HOLDING ONTO THE TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS DROP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT IT
COULD DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SOON AT DEN
AND BY 01Z AT APA. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS (~30%) WILL LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
WINDS SETTLE A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE DIRECTION 05-06Z
AND STAY SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN WINDS WEAKEN AS THEY
TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ENDING UP NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 17Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF DENVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
STAY WEST OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE'S ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM AT DEN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...12
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