148  
FXUS65 KBOU 191825  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
1225 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- CONTINUED COOL TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
- HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE  
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW  
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT PLAINS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING. THE REST OF THE CURRENT  
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE INTACT, SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU  
TONIGHT. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING  
FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY AFTN, ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ADVECT INTO THE AREA.  
 
OVERALL, CAN'T FIND ANY DEFINED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW  
ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTN. SO IT APPEARS WILL HAVE  
TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING REACHED. MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL  
HAVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THRU THE AFTN SO THIS WOULD  
PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
SHOULD REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS  
DEVELOPING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRIGGER  
SOME ACTIVITY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN.  
OVERALL, CAPE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL UNLESS  
TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. AT THIS TIME, HAVE  
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER CHANCES  
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THIS AFTN, WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60'S ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 60 DEGREES WHERE LOW  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN.  
MEANWHILE, AROUND THE DENVER AREA READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE  
LOWER 70S IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A CHC OF NOCTURNAL STORMS  
OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T  
HIGH AS TO OVERALL COVERAGE. THUS HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC  
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS  
EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A  
RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE  
WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS MODELS SHOW A  
PRETTY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL  
DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD BEHIND AND  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY.  
 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
CLIMBING INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.40 INCH RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S  
READINGS, THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE PROGGED. EXPECT BETTER  
INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL GO WITH 20-50%  
POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.  
 
MOISTURE LOOKS JUST AS PREVALENT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.50 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.  
TEMPERATURES BY BE A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY'S WITH SOME MODELS  
SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE CAPE LOOKS  
PRETTY GOOD. WILL GO WITH 20-70% POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS ALSO KEEP  
SOME PRECIPITATION GOING OVERNIGHT IN THE ALPINE AREAS. STORMS MAY  
NOT BE AS STRONG THAN THE THURSDAY STORMS.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6-11 C  
WARMER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. FRIDAY'S READING LOOK TO BE A TAD  
COOLER THAN THURSDAY'S HIGHS.  
 
FOR THE LATER DAYS, SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
MOVE THE UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL  
UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY THERE  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY  
THOSE FOUR DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MID AND UPPER  
90S ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
MINIMAL OVER THE PLAINS ALL FOUR DAYS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
CHANCES OVER THE ALPINE AREAS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THIS MORNING AT AND AROUND THE  
5000-8000 FT RANGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A PRONOUNCED  
LIFTING NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD  
COVERAGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS  
HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, WHICH  
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A GUSTY AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE  
EVENING AT DEN/APA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS  
TO GUST IN THE LOW 30KT RANGE AT DEN/APA. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY  
THAT A THUNDERSTORM PASSES NEAR APA THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH  
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LOW INSTABILITY, SHOWERS ARE  
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.  
 
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON,  
HAVE PUT VCTS AT BJC AS A STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY  
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS  
DOESN'T HAPPEN WITH THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER. WINDS AT BJC LOOK TO  
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 4Z TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE  
DEVELOPS AND N/NE WINDS SETUP. OR SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE ANOTHER  
OPTION. EITHER WAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT FOR EITHER  
SCENARIO.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE BURN SCARS  
THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER CAMERON PEAK AND WILLIAMS FORK. A  
LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BONNER  
SHORT TERM...RPK  
LONG TERM....RJK  
AVIATION...BONNER  
HYDROLOGY....RPK/RJK  
 
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