836
FXUS65 KBOU 031157
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
457 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- QUICK-HITTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY (60-70% CHANCE) FOR THE
MOUNTAINS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING, AND PALMER DIVIDE TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON, ENDING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
(20-50%) ELSEWHERE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY NEXT WEEK, FINALLY!
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT. LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A GOOD CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MTNS MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, CROSS-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A
DRY LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THRU EARLY TUE EVENING WITH SOME
SATURATION AFTER 03Z. OVERALL, WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, THIS
WOULD FAVOR AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TUE
NIGHT.
FOR WED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
COLORADO WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. BY THU,
THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD INTO WRN COLORADO.
OVERALL, THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PATTERN BOTH DAYS, WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THU, AS READINGS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60'S
OVER NERN CO.
BY FRI, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL WEAKEN, HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SWRN US. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SWRN US WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EITHER DAY SO DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FINALLY, PEERING INTO THE LONGER TERM, EVENTUALLY MAY SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH A GOOD CHC OF PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS, ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WINDS BEGIN STRENGTHENING AND
TRANSITIONING TO NW BY 17Z/18Z. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z, PEAKING
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE DOMINATING WIND
DIRECTION AFTER 02Z, BUT A BRIEF NNE COMPONENT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING BACK TO WSW BY 06Z IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME.
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY EARLIER
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LOWER BY LATE MORNING, WITH A CLOUD BASE OF 6000 FT POSSIBLE BY
23Z. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 21Z FOR ALL
TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER. HAVE MOVED UP THE PROB30 TO AN EARLIER
TIME DUE TO THIS. AFTER 00Z/01Z, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, ARE
EXPECTED, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION APA DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPSLOPING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (~70%) THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY 06Z (SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR BJC).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...MAI
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