821
FXUS65 KBOU 290133
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
733 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
- WARMER AND DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
MLCAPE THIS AFTN WAS UP TO 1500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS VERY WEAK
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, WILL SEE SCT MAINLY
OUTFLOWED DOMINANT STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR A MARGINAL SVR STORM OVER THE PLAINS THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, STORMS WILL BE MOVING SO THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT, AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY.
ON FRI, WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. MLCAPE
WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. ONCE
AGAIN THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD MARGINAL SVR STORM WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY SAT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NWLY AS A COOL FRONT MOVES
INTO NERN CO. THERE COULD BE A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WHICH MAY INCREASE TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN
MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THE STORMS WITH AN ISOLD SVR
STORM POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
FROM SUN THRU TUE A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST WITH NNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS FOR MUCH
COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WED AND THU. ON THE FLIP SIDE
THE GFS HAS A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE COOLER AIR STAYING
MAINLY TO THE EAST. FOR NOW IT'S HARD TO SAY WHICH MODEL MAY VERIFY
THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 730 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
CONVECTION IS NEARLY OVER AT DIA THIS EVENING. THE EASTWARD
MOVING CONVECTION KILLED A DECENT BOUNDARY PUSHING TOWARDS THE
AIRPORT FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTED CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS
WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN. MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS AT DIA
BY AROUND 06Z. WILL LEAVE A VCFG IN THE TAF FROM 10Z-15Z EARLY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER NONE OF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING ANY LOW STRATUS,
LOW VISIBILITIES OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE AIRPORT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEY ALL KEEP SOME SORT OF WEAK
DRAINAGE BLOWING WELL PAST SUNRISE. SO NO TEMPO FOG FOR THE 00Z
DEN TAF.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION.....RJK
HYDROLOGY....RPK
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