987
FXUS65 KBOU 280513
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1113 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRESENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO WARM, DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AS EXPECTED, IT'S WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE DENVER METRO HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S (INCLUDING A 94F SO FAR AT DEN), WITH
SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE
FOCUSED FROM ROUGHLY PEETZ DOWN INTO YUMA COUNTY IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THE DRYLINE RESIDES A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000
J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 35-45KT. MOST
GUIDANCE MAKES AN ATTEMPT OR TWO AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. CURRENT DAY
CLOUD PHASE SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL CUMULUS FIELD SLOWLY STARTING
TO GROW ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY. IT'S A RATHER CONDITIONAL SETUP, BUT
A SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH HAIL/WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH RELATIVELY SMALL,
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS.
MEANWHILE, FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT KREMMLING
AND A COUPLE RAWS SITES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE THEME OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY, AS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MORE ON FIRE WX IN THE
SECTION LATER IN THIS AFD.
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PLAYERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK WON'T REALLY MOVE
MUCH, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT
TOMORROW'S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME AS TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ONE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA TO PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A COUPLE ATTEMPTS TO GET
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MID/LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z
WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS. BY 10Z WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. ON SUN, WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SE BY 14Z, HOWEVER,
IT'S NOT CLEAR AS TO WIND DIRECTIONS BY 18Z. IT'S CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE A DENVER CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP WITH A BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. AS A RESULT MAY SEE VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS AT DIA AND BJC. APA WILL PROBABLY HAVE A SOUTH WIND BY
16Z WHICH WILL BECOME MORE SW BY 20Z WITH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
FOR NOW, HAVE SHOWN THE DENVER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY TO
STAY NORTH OF DIA SO HAVE KEPT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY 18ZX WHICH
WILL BECOME MORE SW BY 21Z. IF CYCLONE AND BOUNDARY STAY SOUTH OF
DIA THEN WINDS MAY HAVE A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE
AFTN. FINALLY, REGARDING SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER UT AND WRN CO,
LATEST HRRR MOVES MOST OF IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z
AND DOESN'T MOVE IT BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUN NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED, WITH NEARLY EVERY STATION WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AREA SEEING GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10-16% ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER TONIGHT AND
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION, THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
DEEP MIXING LEADING TO RH FALLING AGAIN TO AROUND 10-17%. WHILE A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RELIEF SUNDAY NIGHT
(PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY RECOVERY), NO PRECIPITATION
OR SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LIKELY NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST MONDAY. FUELS STATUS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR
AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ211>214-
216>218.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ211>214-
216-218.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...HIRIS
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