704  
FXUS65 KBOU 182147  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
347 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS  
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND  
FOOTHILLS.  
 
- WARMER AND DRIER TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- 90S CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 40 MPH  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS, AND SLOW MOVING STORMS  
MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. GREATER INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER MLCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED SEVERE  
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS, BUT COLORADO IS JUST ON  
THE FRINGES OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/SHEAR LINE,  
KEEPING THE THREAT LIMITED. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING  
MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM  
110-150% OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST HELPS PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE ARE  
SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW FAR WEST THE  
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ON  
THE EAST SIDE OF A DRYLINE, MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2400 J/KG, AND 0-6  
KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 45-50 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORNER WILL  
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS PUT US  
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS) FROM LOGAN COUNTY EASTWARD, WITH A MARGINAL WEST TO I-25,  
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE  
MOISTURE MAKES IT COULD LEAD TO A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SEVERE  
RISK.  
 
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE,  
WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY,  
WITH SOME SPILLING ONTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN  
THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING  
OVER THE CENTRAL US AMPLIFIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE  
RIDGE AND DECREASING MOISTURE TO START THE WEEK WILL SLOWLY  
INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE  
PERSISTENT HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A  
NNE PUSH IS EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER  
CENTRAL WELD COUNTY BY 20Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON, 30-35KT GUSTY  
OUTFLOWS AND DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PASSING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 3Z  
TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST, BUT  
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS TO THE E AND NE MAKING  
THEIR WAY INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  
 
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BONNER  
AVIATION...BONNER  
 
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