991  
FXUS65 KBOU 230529  
AFDBOU  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO  
1029 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY TO  
WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MONDAY.  
 
- MORE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS, SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW RETURN  
TO THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. SOME SNOW  
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 827 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZED  
AND DRIED. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED BUT MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MODEST OROGRAPHICS AND TRAPPED  
MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THOSE OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO, SO WE DELAYED  
THE CLEARING A BIT THERE.  
 
T/TD SPREADS ARE CLOSE IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AT THE  
PRESENT TIME. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT  
OVERNIGHT, WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG BETWEEN GREELEY  
AND FORT MORGAN. IN ALL OTHER AREAS WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF  
DOWNSLOPE AND THUS NO FOG.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON MID LEVEL  
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG  
THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES TO WARRANT POPS THERE TONIGHT, BUT  
COVERAGE WILL DECREASING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL  
BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WEST OF THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER. GUSTY NORTHWEST  
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON  
PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE  
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT  
WEEK IS QUITE HIGH. MODELS AGREE RIDGING UNDER A STRONG  
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL  
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW  
WINDY IT WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO POOR MIXING. IN SET UPS  
LIKE THIS, WE'LL SEE SWATHS OF GUSTY WINDS EXTEND OFF THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY. THE  
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT  
WILL PRODUCE BETTER MIXING AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WINDY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. MONDAY WILL  
AGAIN BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. WITH THE STRONGER  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE, EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW 70S. RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURE MONDAY FOR DEN IS 71F, SO THERE'S A POSSIBILITY IT  
COULD BE REACHED. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST. SNOW (VALLEY RAIN), SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL  
COLORADO SOMETIME MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
TUESDAY AND THE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG  
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO  
PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHARPLY FALL BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF  
SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR  
THE MOUNTAINS, STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT  
(OROGRAPHIC). WIDESPREAD SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT  
OVERALL IS ON THE HIGH SIDE BEING THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT.  
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE  
TROUGH, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA  
TUESDAY.  
 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY  
IS EXPECTED TO BE COOL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE COOLER AIR  
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST  
COLORADO CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING,  
BEFORE A LIKELY (80% CONFIDENCE) SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN  
16-18Z ACROSS THE DENVER METRO. GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE A RETURN  
TO LIGHTER SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND UNDER A STRONG  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS FALL INTO THE  
TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE  
8 TO 14 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT  
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MIXING  
WILL BE ON THE POOR SIDE SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE GUSTY  
WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIXING SOMEWHAT IMPROVES  
SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS AND  
POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT INCREASES  
MONDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. MOISTURE BEGINS TO  
INCREASE WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS  
FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.  
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED  
ONLY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.  
 

 
   
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH  
SHORT TERM...COOPER  
LONG TERM...MEIER  
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ  
FIRE WEATHER...MEIER  
 
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