679
FXUS65 KBOU 290541
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1141 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THINGS HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE
OBSERVATIONS AT OR APPROACHING 90F ALREADY ACROSS THE METRO AREA (AS
OF 11:30 AM), AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE DEGREES OF SURFACE HEATING BEFORE
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP BRINGING SOME HEAT RELIEF FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS/MICROBURSTS. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS LACKING TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR OUR FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, WHERE WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THE LACKING INSTABILITY, DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1300-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO FROM ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR
NORTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF I-25.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE AS MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES
ITS EASTWARD TREK. FOR SATURDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY OVER COLORADO. A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED PWATS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT ONCE AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AT LEAST AT THE UPPER LEVELS, WHILE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MORE LIMITED. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH MONDAY BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WITH INCREASINGLY
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUB 90 DEGREES FOR A CHANGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK BOUNDARY DID BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME DISRUPTION TO THE DRAINAGE
FLOW AT DEN BUT SHOULD THIS SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME BY 07Z. A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS REMAIN WSW/W DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY, BEFORE COMING A BIT MORE
MESSY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR OR AFTER 20Z. VARIABLE AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SOME SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY BEFORE AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...HIRIS
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