327
FXUS65 KBOU 190557
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO POOR TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY MORNING.
- OTHERWISE MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A BRIEF COLD OUTBREAK WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS CWA FROM THE DIVIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE NORTHEAST CORNER HAS SPEEDS IN THE 20-
35 MPH RANGE, WITH THE REST OF THE PLAINS HAVING 10-25 MPH.
SPEEDS ARE LIGHTER IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE AIRMASS IS STILL HAVING
DIFFICULTY MOISTENING UP. RADAR IS SLOWLY FILLING IN, WITH MAYBE
SOME LIGHT SNOW NOW HITTING THE GROUND IN MORGAN AND EASTERN WELD
COUNTIES. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODELS. I WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES AND
LATEST MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TROUGH OVER MONTANA CURRENTLY THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY, UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL AID WITH FORCING. WHILE IT IS QUITE DRY, MODELS LIKE THE HRRR
USUALLY HAVE A DRY BIAS THROUGH EVENTS LIKE THIS. THAT SEEMS TO
BE THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS LOCKED IN ON
ROUGHLY 0.05-0.15" OF QPF FORECAST FOR THE DENVER METRO AND MOST
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE HRRR HAS HAD SOME RUNS WITH ALMOST
NO SNOW. SO THE FORECAST OF A TRACE TO 2" WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WITH 0.5-2.5" NOW EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR MORNING TRAVEL
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT REACH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AS IT IS POSSIBLE DENVER
DOESN'T REACH 40 WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES.
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 8-15% ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE HOPE IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE FUELS TO
LIMIT FIRE DANGER. IF THERE ISN'T ENOUGH MOISTURE, TUESDAY COULD
SEE SOME RED FLAG WARNINGS GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
THAT COULD REACH 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT IS POSSIBLE MODELS WILL
PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BUT THEY HAVEN'T YET. THE FORCING FROM THE TUESDAY
NIGHT SHORTWAVE IS SIMILAR TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE.
GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT A BRIEF COLD WAVE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO LATE ON FRIDAY. THE
NBM SEEMS SLOW TO PICK THIS UP BUT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
EVEN BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, INCLUDING
OVER KDEN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KAPA AND KBJC OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MOVING OUT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR AS HEAVIER SNOW MOVES
OVER THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES IN FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 3SM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL START
TO IMPROVE AROUND 13Z AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. BY THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...66
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...AP
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