400
FXUS65 KGJT 221715
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH MOVES IN TODAY AND TOMORROW AS DRY CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE.
- RAIN AND SNOW RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND SNOW RATIOS
LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WE ANTICIPATE MANY RECORDS BEING BROKEN DUE TO THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEE THEIR
RECORDS BROKEN AS WELL. NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES REMAIN THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN THAT SEEN TODAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE CHRISTMAS EVE
ONWARDS AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY. AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET UP AND CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS AR CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AR MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE TROUGH
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH
KEEPS US IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
IN THOSE FEWS DAYS MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING AWAY FROM FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND TRACKING OVERHEAD. THOSE WAVES COULD RESULT IN MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AT TIMES. THE
MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON
THURSDAY, WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A SUB-
TROPICAL AIR MASS SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9-10 KFT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW SNOW RATIOS UPON ARRIVAL. THEREFORE EXPECTING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE VALLEYS AT FIRST. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HOW OR IF THE LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MAKES LANDFALL AND HOW IT EVOLVES MOVING INLAND. THE TWO
MAIN SCENARIOS IS THE LOW WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER OUR REGION AS
AN OPEN WAVE. THE OTHER IS THAT THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF AND
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW COLD THE TEMPERATURES CAN GET, WHICH IN TURN
DICTATES HOW LOW THE SNOW LEVELS GET FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOTH OF THOSE SCENARIOS DO NOT FAVOR A MASSIVE SNOW STORM FOR
THE VALLEYS. OF COURSE THE MODELS COULD CHANGE. ALTHOUGH AS OF
NOW THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER US,
SO CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT HOW THE SECOND STAGE OF THIS STORM IS SHAPING UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SITES MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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