973
FXUS65 KGJT 082325
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, TENTATIVELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG WINDS ARRIVE TUESDAY, COUPLED WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES SENDING SOME
WEAK MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY SLOT HAS INTRUDED ON THIS
FEATURE TODAY. BUT, A BROAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS STILL TAKEN HOLD
ON MOST TERRAIN ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ON
THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION ARE REALLY NOT IN
FAVOR OF THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WE SAW YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE SURFACE IN TRACE AMOUNTS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS TOO DRY, HENCE THE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE.
THE TROUGH SENDS A STRONG JET STREAK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SEND SURFACE WINDS UP INTO 20-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED FOR SOME VALLEYS IN ADDITION TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AMPLIFY THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE TROUGH SETTLING SOUTH TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME
WEAK MOISTURE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL HELP SOME WITH FIRE WEATHER. THIS WILL INCLUDE SOME
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE DEEPEST PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER
THE REGION, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING. THIS COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHEAST UT AND
NORTHWEST CO ON WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY,
BUT FIRE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. THIS TREND LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
TEMPERATURES SURGE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL AGAIN.
THIS HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AGAIN. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME RETURN MOISTURE
WORKING NORTHWARD BENEATH THE HIGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. WHETHER
THIS YIELDS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND, REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT WE REMAIN HOT AND
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, HOPING FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND A SHOWER
TO CHIP AWAY AT THE HEAT A BIT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
WIND WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE TAF FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A STRONG JET ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LLWS AS THE
LOWER LAYERS REMAIN CUTOFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. AS HEATING KICKS IN THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE BOARD BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF MOSITURE IN THIS FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SOME LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER KDRO TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER SMOKE
FROM NEW FIRES AND BLOWING DUST MAY LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH
INDICATIONS THAT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND, AS
TEMPERATURES SURGE 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL. THIS IS BEING
PROMPTED BY STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS BENEATH A
STRONG SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY, BLOWING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. FIRE ZONES
WITH CRITICAL FUELS HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER RED FLAG WARNINGS OR
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES, WITH UPGRADES LIKELY FOR THE WATCHES IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AGAINST
THE DIVIDE, PROMPTING ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS HOT, DRY, WINDY PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
ABATING THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOME MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH COULD EAT INTO THIS
PATTERN, BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A THIN HOPE TO HANG ONTO AT THE
MOMENT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-203-205-207-290>295.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ002-007-008-
011-020>022.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ201-205-207-291>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-
490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490-491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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