196
FXUS65 KGJT 180525
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1125 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL, DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND BEYOND.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM ARRIVES MID-WEEK,
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEEK'S END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CONTINUED COOL THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMUP INTO EARLY THIS WEEK:
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE SAN JUANS. THIS CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL LEND
ITSELF TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE TREELINE IN THE SAN JUANS. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY WITH A BIT OF WAA HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DIVE DOWN THE
WEST COAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOCAL.
WET WEEK AHEAD:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TEXAS
WITH THE LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARDS 300
PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THIS TIME, WHICH EQUATES TO PWAT OF
0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PWAT ABOVE AN INCH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN THIS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
UTAH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL BUT IT ALL
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF
COLD AIR AND SEEM TO BE TRENDING MILDER AS THIS LOW LIFTS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE COLDEST AIR NOW ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
LOW FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS TO BE A WET WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE
WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT LEAVING VFR TO
PREVAIL AT AREA TAFS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO
OMIT FROM FORECASTS ATTM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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