874
FXUS65 KGJT 131044
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
444 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING, SETTING UP FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS OF NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AND
LASTING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
- TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD BE DIFFICULT ON TUESDAY
DUE TO SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY ROADS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM:
OUR NEXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING,
WITH STRONG, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS, AS WELL AS ADVECT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST
PWATS OF 100-150% OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY TOMORROW,
INCREASING TO 150-200% OF NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION TOMORROW, THOUGH IT LOOKS TO STALL AS
THE ENERGY IN THE PARENT TROUGH SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
AND SOUTHERN-STREAM CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT NOTABLY ALSO KEEP THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. SO
WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, WIND ADVISORIES
APPEAR UNNEEDED.
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM LOW BECOMES MOBILE ONCE MORE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND SNOW LEVELS
LOOK TO LOWER TO 7000-8000 FEET. THIS MEANS ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND
ABOVE PASS LEVEL, WITH VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS BELOW. THE BIG QUESTION
REMAINS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE, AND HOW IMPACTFUL IT WILL BE.
THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, MEANING THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST THE HIGH SPRING SUN-
ANGLE AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE ALSO REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES IN SNOW-RATIOS AND QPF. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BUT IF TRAVELLING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, BE PREPARED FOR SLOPPY DRIVING CONDITIONS.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WIND AND
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS TRANSIENT RIDGING PASSES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BRINGING
ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN LATE WEEK, WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGE.
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH OTHER FACTORS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM,
SUCH AT TRACK, STRENGTH, AND MOISTURE CONTENT. SO STAY TUNED. TAKING
A LOOK EVEN FURTHER OUT, MODELS LOOK TO KEEP THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/VIRGA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED TO
HOLD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
BROUGHT DOWN WITH THE SHOWERS PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
OTHERWISE THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP A THREAT OF LLWS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS GET MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. A PUSH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. VFR
REMAINS THE PREVAILING FORECAST...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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