786
FXUS65 KGJT 041720
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES ON TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS THE LEADING WAVE FROM A CUT OFF LOW MOVING
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AS PRECIP IS TRYING
TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. SHOWERS REACH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD MONDAY DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THIS BOUNDARY
STALLING A BIT ALONG THE NORTHERN COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER AS A
DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST DYNAMIC DAY AS THE CUT OFF LOW
MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND THE DEEPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH, BRINGING WITH IT A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES APPEAR TO OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO TUESDAY COULD BE MET WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND OF COURSE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SNOW IS
EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET BUT THE GREATEST IMPACTS AND
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP AND THE DEPTH OF COLDER AIR, BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES, ESPECIALLY RABBIT EARS AND
VAIL PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HELD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME BUT
COULD SEE SOME LATE SEASON IMPACTS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. WANT TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE HONING IN ON DETAILS WITH TIMING, AMOUNTS AND ESPECIALLY
SNOWFALL RATES. BE PREPARED FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IF TRAVELING
EAST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ALSO
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR INFO ON THE EAST SLOPE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALLOWING SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE I-
70 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. MANY PROB30 GROUPS ARE INCLUDED IN TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WHILE VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY, BRIEF MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR MANY SITES AFTER
06Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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