661
FXUS65 KGJT 250004
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
604 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGS A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
ENOUGH MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING.
THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
UNTIL HEATING WANES WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. SOME OF
THE PRECIP MAY HIT THE GROUND BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF AS MOST PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 45
MPH FROM THE STRONGEST CELLS...COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DESPITE THE CONVECTION, WE REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE AND AS IT SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST, OUR CWA WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN MEMORIAL DAY AS A PACNW SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. INITIALLY,
WE'LL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE THANKS TO FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW, CHANCES INCREASE (20 TO 40%)
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, FAVORING THE SAN JUANS/SOUTHERN
VALLEYS AND SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FLAT
TOPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PACNW SYSTEM WILL
CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WOBBLE NEAR THAT REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE AND AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW, WE CAN EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL
EJECTION OF THE CLOSED LOW. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINLY REMAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CONDITIONS STAY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO END BY ABOUT 03Z WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG OR NORTH OF I-70 POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
ALSO SEE ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO MORE SCATTERED CONDITIONS, MORE THAN
WE SAW TODAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT DRAINAGE
WIND, SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO
25 KTS IN SOUTHWESTERN CO AND SOUTHEASTERN UT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page