994
FXUS65 KGJT 300502
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1102 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONDAY'S FORECAST FEATURES ONE LAST DAY OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
WEATHER.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, VALLEY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ONE MORE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY DAY:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY, BUT NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WE WILL SEE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY LEADING TO AN
UPTICK IN WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. AS SUCH,
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS
WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY AS WELL LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE.
PATTERN SHIFT AHEAD:
A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS WEEK PUSHING COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD BEHIND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE SEE AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION, ARRIVING AT BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS,
THIS MOISTURE WILL PREDOMINATELY PRESENT AS CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AFTER SUNSET ON TUESDAY. PWATS OF
200-250% OF NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ABOVE 9,000 FEET WILL FALL AS SNOW UNTIL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AS WITH MOST SPRING SYSTEMS,
SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AND OUR
ONGOING HEAT DOES NOT MAKE THIS TASK ANY EASIER. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>70% CHANCE) OF 6+ INCHES ABOVE
9,000-10,000 FEET AREA WIDE, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CAN OVER PERFORM
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS,
BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN AT PASS LEVEL AND WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR TAKES
HOLD AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE
ARE MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AT VALLEY TERMINALS AND 40 KNOTS AT MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY COMING FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE WE ARE
EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF CRITICAL FUELS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15%, AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS QUICKLY DROP OFF ON TUESDAY AND
BEYOND AS STRONG MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205-290-292.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page