981
FXUS65 KGJT 261852
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1252 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK,
MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT TO
FLASH FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL.
- PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON MOST
TERRAIN FEATURES TODAY. STORMS ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THUS
FAR AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TRAJECTORY. WHILE MOISTURE SEES A
SLIGHT DOWNTURN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE ARE STILL EXPECTATIONS FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO POSE FLASH FLOODING RISKS, SHOULD
THEY DEVELOP NEAR SUSCEPTIBLE WASHES, BURN SCARS, AND
MOUNTAINSIDES. SHOWERS WILL WANE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DOESN'T BUDGE MUCH THURSDAY AND PERSISTENCE WILL
RULE WITH TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
THURSDAY. HEIGHT FALLS PRECIPITATED BY THE INBOUND PACNW STORM
DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THIS LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO EXTEND THEIR LIFE CYCLE. MODELS HINT AT SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TOO. TRAINING STORMS AND/OR LONGER
LIFE CYCLES COULD PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING AGAIN THURSDAY.
PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING
TO DECAY/PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON WINDS UP IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INCLUDING SOME
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS
ANOTHER PULSE OF MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE COLLAPSING RIDGE. THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC REMAINS AN ACTIVE UPSTREAM IMPACT TO THE
PATTERN SHIFT SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A DEEPER POOL OF COOLER,
WETTER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY. THIS, DARE I SAY, LOOKS MORE FALL-
LIKE GIVEN THE EROSION OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
I'M SURE WE STILL HAVE SOME WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US, BUT THIS NEXT
WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND WETTER. TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COULD PLAY INTO LOCAL MOISTURE SUPPLIES LATER
NEXT WEEK. THIS PLAYS INTO SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY AND COULD
SUPPLY SOME NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE WEST SLOPE...FINGERS
CROSSED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER
KGUC AND KTEX. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, MIGHT BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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