104
FXUS65 KGJT 090537
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. OVERCAST SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FAVORED WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, BUT WEAK STEERING WINDS
AND LACK OF SHEAR WILL LEAD TO POP AND DROP VARIETY WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR
RECORDS WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WET THIS WEEKEND:
THE BIG STORY TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WORKING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CURRENTLY IS
SITTING WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA BUT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA AND SOCAL
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DESCENDING DOWN
THE WEST COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL HELP
STEER TS RACHEL INLAND AND PULL THE TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN IN THE SW FLOW FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
DEEP MOISTURE PUSH WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO 200-250
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BIGGEST PUSH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TO NEAR 300
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER OF THE MODELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE PUSH, WE
COULD SEE MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
LOOK TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
STORM TYPE AS WE COULD SEE MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
TIMING WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. WE WILL HAVE JET SUPPORT
BY SUNDAY SO IF WE SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, WE COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL AS
QUICK RISES ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
LIKE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH, MAINLY THE EASTERN UINTAS AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF RACHEL. WE WILL HAVE A CLEARER PICTURE ONCE HI-
RES GUIDANCE COMES IN.
ANOTHER CONCERN GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET IS STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A DRY SLOT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AS WELL AS STRONGER
STORM POTENTIAL. CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE WIND GUSTS 30 TO 50
MPH IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
COOLER, CONTINUED WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK:
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS RACHEL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST, ANOTHER TROPICAL
SYSTEM, HURRICANE SIMON, WILL APPROACH THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO AND IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHETHER WE GET THIS MOISTURE OR NOT DEPENDS ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WHICH LOOKS TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SE TEXAS CONTINUE TO STEER THE MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF SIMON WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, THIS CLOSED
LOW LOOKS TO PACK A PUNCH AS A STRONGER JET DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS BEFORE THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE CAN STILL EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOISTURE AND
FORCING REMAIN PRESENT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS,
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 10,000 FEET. SO THIS SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY
FLUID FORECAST AND WE EXPECT THE DETAILS TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, BE AWARE THAT RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THANKS TO THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOO, WITH
MOSTLY DENSE CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING IN AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
STORM. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOW UP ON THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST UT AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF CO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN BE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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