661
FXUS65 KGJT 201746
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT OVER
PORTIONS OF OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM. THE REMNANTS OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY'S STORM HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDMORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING OVER THE REST OF WESTERN CO AND NORTHEAST UT AS WELL.
THE NEXT STORM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE WEST
THEN SOUTHWEST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO.
BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER
LAS VEGAS WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT
APPEARS THE LOW CENTER WILL SPLIT WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
ITS ENERGY DIGGING TO SOUTHERN CA. THIS TURNS WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH THE JET STREAM TRAVELING JUST EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS THEN NORTH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
ORIENTATION SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND ANY MOUNTAIN RANGES FAVORING
SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE JET SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHWEST RIDGETOP
WINDS AT 30 KTS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY ENHANCING INSTABILITY WHILE WINDS WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE WEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY, FINALLY
BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SECOND PROLONGED
WINTER STORM WILL BRING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SOME SHALLOW, FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND IMPACTS OF
SUCH SHALLOW DISTURBANCES SO DIFFICULT TO PUT MUCH DETAIL IN THE
FORECAST IN THESE LATER PERIODS.
TEMPERATURE WISE, LOOK FOR READINGS TO RUN LOW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD NORMAL
READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST CO BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06-09Z
TONIGHT. BY THEN, EXPECT CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES TO DROP TO ILS
BREAKPOINTS. IN SHOWERS, EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH REDUCED VIS/CIGS. MOUNTAINS WILL FREQUENTLY BE OBSCURED.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ003-009-012-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ018>023.
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR UTZ025.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR UTZ022-028-029.
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...MMS
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