072  
FXUS65 KGJT 020005  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
605 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED  
FLOODING CONCERNS EMERGING.  
 
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,  
WITH MORE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL TURN DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE  
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A GENEROUS INFUSION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL MOISTURE TURNED UP ON THE  
MID DAY SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND JUNCTION, WITH PWAT'S INCREASING  
BY NEARLY 50 PERCENT SINCE MONDAY EVENING. THIS PRODUCED A  
GENEROUS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SAN JUANS TODAY, MOST  
OF WHICH HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND DECAYED INTO SOME LIGHT RAIN  
ON THE TERRAIN. A FEW GUSTY STORMS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS  
DOLORES, MONTEZUMA, AND LA PLATA COUNTIES IN THE OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE TAVAPUTS,  
BOOKCLIFFS, AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME  
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE STORMS HAVE  
BEEN A LITTLE STARVED, AS THIS SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE  
ANEMIC THAN THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.  
 
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS SUNSET, ESPECIALLY ON TERRAIN  
THAT HASN'T BEEN WORKED OVER YET THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL  
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME 40 TO 50 MPH OUTFLOWS UPON  
COLLAPSE. THE LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY MOSTLY  
ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN. THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST  
WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON  
WEDNESDAY TO SEND ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN THE  
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN.(FOR THOSE WONDERING: THIS IS NOT MONSOONAL)  
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON OUR TERRAIN. PWAT'S REACH  
NEARLY 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY  
TAP INTO LIGHTER MOISTURE AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING  
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF  
RICH CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO PUT THE BRAKES ON THE HOT AND DRY  
PATTERN FOR A MINUTE, WHICH WE GET INTO DOWN BELOW. SOME OF THE  
STRONGER MOISTURE SETS UP ACROSS OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES, AS WELL AS  
JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND GENEROUS  
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE KEEN TO KEEPING SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY GOING  
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE STATE LINE TOO. THIS WILL  
POTENTIALLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM INITIATION THURSDAY, BUT THAT  
CAN WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
THE CLOSED LOW WHICH IS PRESENTLY SITTING OFF THE WEST COAST LOOKS  
TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON THURSDAY AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH THE GREAT  
BASIN. ENSEMBLES ARE CONFIDENT THAT A POCKET OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS  
PWAT'S (UPWARDS OF 210% OF NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS) WILL BE  
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH.  
THIS POSITIONS THE CENTER OF THE POCKET NEAR NORTHEASTERN UTAH WITH  
THE ENTIRETY OF OUR CWA BENEFITING FROM AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE. AS A  
RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ON  
THURSDAY. THE NBM CURRENTLY SITS AT 65-85% PROBABILITY OF  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION, WHICH IS ACTUALLY  
A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM GUIDANCE 24 HOURS AGO. WHAT MAY LIMIT THE  
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE THE LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF MORNING  
CLOUD COVER. SHOULD WE LOSE OUT ON SOME INSTABILITY FROM THIS, WE  
MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A STRATIFORM SETUP WITH MORE ISOLATED  
EMBEDDED STORMS BEING POSSIBLE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
STILL LIMITED, BUT AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE, WE'LL BEGIN TO  
BETTER GAUGE HOW THIS WET EVENT WILL UNFOLD.  
 
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL  
FLOW IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS ON THE 4TH OF JULY,  
MOISTURE CONTENT WIDELY VARIES, WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SPLIT EVENLY  
BETWEEN ABOVE- AND BELOW-NORMAL QPF. WHATEVER MOISTURE DOES PERSIST  
WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA NEAR  
THE PARK RANGE. HOWEVER, ANY AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION,  
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN, SHOULD OROGRAPHICS BE  
FAVORABLE. IT IS APPARENT THAT DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME HEADING INTO  
THE WEEKEND, BUT CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL  
FLOW APPEARS TO FALL OFF GREATLY BY THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, ENDING BY  
06Z. THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW GUSTS TO  
45 KTS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF THE REGION BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER 18Z WITH  
SIMILAR THREATS OF LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW GUSTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LTB  
LONG TERM...BW  
AVIATION...DB  
 
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