963
FXUS65 KGJT 261825
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1225 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN RECORDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS HOT,
DRY, AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS CALM DOWN TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES, VALLEY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE:
THE REGION REMAINS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH, TRAPPING US UNDER ZONAL
FLOW. THIS IS BRINGING FORTH YET ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THINGS ARE
COOLING OFF THOUGH, IN PART THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH TODAY, PROMPTING SOME CLOUDIER SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. FOLLOWING
SUIT, A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD END THIS LENGTHY STREAK OF BROKEN HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN SPITE OF THIS, SOME LOCALIZED
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WARMER-
THAN-USUAL WEATHER CONTINUES, LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND
THIS WEEKEND TO PROMPT SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
PATTERN SHIFT EXPECTED:
THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN US
FINALLY BUDGES ON MONDAY, BRINGING A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY TUESDAY, A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES TO THE WEST SLOPE, PROMPTING WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR
NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS TRENDING ON THE COLDER SIDE, MEANING TEMPERATURES
COULD BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVER OUR
MOUNTAIN RANGES. ENSEMBLES ARE STILL TOO VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT
TO SPECULATE ON THE DETAILS, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING OCCURS WITH GUST BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO
BKN SKIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AROUND
KEGE AND KASE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
GUSTS OF 20-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TODAY, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. PAIRED WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
FALL BELOW 15% FOR THESE SAME AREAS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS CALM DOWN TOMORROW BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
PERIOD YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
COVERAGE, BUT HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. EVEN IF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ISSUED, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS
WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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