657
FXUS65 KGJT 120555
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY
OVER THE UINTAS. SOME OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DOWN
TO 9000 FEET...BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT ABOVE 10000 FEET.
- WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY BUT
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME GUSTS
COULD BE STRONGER NEAR PASSING SHOWERS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE TROUGH OVER
THE WEST TO LINGER UPSTREAM OF US THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
TROPICAL PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES AND WE BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFTER MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUST OVER THE TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
THE PARENT LOW IN THIS TROUGH IS OVER THE OREGON THIS EVENING
AND MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT DIGGING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP
BROAD ASCENT OVER OUR AREA SUPPORTED BY THE JET ALOFT WHICH
WILL KEEP WORKING ON THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA AND THE SAN JUANS WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE. ASCENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
OOZE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA UNDER THE STRONG QG SIGNAL
SUPPORTED BY THE 130+KT JET ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING TOWARD 9000 FEET BRINGING OUR FIRST HINT OF SWEATER
WEATHER. THOUGH SNOW FLAKES COULD BE FALLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR A WHILE THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL FAVORED TO BE ABOVE
10K FEET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STRONG
FALL STORM AND HONE IN ON FINER DETAILS BUT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE A MUCH COOLER
FORECAST WILL EMERGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE A SLOW
WARMUP BEGINS UNDER DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW FREEZING IN MANY OF THE HIGH VALLEYS
BY THURSDAY AS WELL AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MID LEVEL CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW TEMPO SHOWERS LIKELY TO BRING CEILINGS NEAR
BREAKPOINTS. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT THE SURFACE, WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT CREATING SOME LLWS AT THE TERMINALS. THIS TREND FOR
STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE CONTINUES MONDAY, AS A SPIRITED JET
MAX OVERHEAD WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOO. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS AT MANY TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONGER GUSTS IN AN ALREADY EXCESSIVELY WINDY REGIME.
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WILL PROVE CHALLENGING
FOR AVIATORS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB
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