321
FXUS65 KGJT 191749
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW STARTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN UTAH AND MOST OF WESTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING, WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
THOUGH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN
DIVIDE IN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 2 INCHES FOR MOST HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WITH LIGHTENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, AS WELL AS THE MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
PLUMMET TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW FEBRUARY NORMS. AREAS PRONE TO
COLD POOLING AND THAT HAVE FRESH SNOW COULD SEE LOWS DROP EVEN
FURTHER. TRANSIENT RIDGING BUILDS IN TOMORROW, KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS MOSTLY CALM. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY,
RUNNING 10- 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RESPITE ONLY LASTS FOR
AROUND 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP INTO ANOTHER WEAK AR,
BRINGING FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 100-150% OF NORMAL UP INTO
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THIS IS HARDLY
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WE'VE SEEN, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL
FACTORS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE WHAT THIS MOISTURE CAN DO. FOR ONE,
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL TAKE IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, WHICH
IS A VERY FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MAXIMIZE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THESE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING PVA
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ADD SOME STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. THE
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS.
ALL TOGETHER, THIS MEANS THAT THE SOUTHERN, AND SOME CENTRAL,
MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 6
INCHES, AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF TOTALS ABOVE 10 INCHES FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 9000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, THOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT WE'VE
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH, WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SAN
JUANS, SEEING GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. ONE PLACE WHERE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO VALLEYS. FORECAST TOTALS ARE SUB-ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, RISING TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
JUANS. HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR THESE
LOCATIONS TO OVER-PERFORM AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION COOLS THE
COLUMN AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SO
STAY TUNED, AS THESE AREAS MAY JOIN IN ON HIGHLIGHTS.
THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH A FINAL, THOUGH
WEAKER, COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, PLUS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND BRING ABOUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON FAVORED SLOPES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A LULL IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARRIVES SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ARCS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
NORTHWEST, KEEPING SOME COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR A CHANGE. THE JET STREAM CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE CONUS OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MIXED CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM THROUGH THE DIRTY
RIDGE, LIKELY IMPACTING HIGHS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO GET BEHIND
ANOTHER WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS
THE JET SINKS SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
NOW PUSHING MORE OF THE MOISTURE NORTH, VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES
THUS FAR. FOR NOW, IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MORE SEASONAL TO ITS NORTH AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TO THE SOUTH.
WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW MODEL SOLUTIONS COALESCE IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
SOME MIDLEVEL CEILINGS PERSIST AT KASE, KEGE, AND KHDN AND WILL
LIKELY FLUCTUATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE FEW TO SCATTERED SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED HOWEVER. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND 25KTS OR SO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL START MOVING IN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR MOST TAF SITES TO ALLOW FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z. BY 12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES WILL BE MOVING FROM VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES
UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE MET FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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