140
FXUS65 KGJT 051916
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1216 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
- SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, FAVORING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, ALLOW SNOW TO REACH MOST VALLEY FLOORS.
- ALL COLORADO RANGES, AND THE EASTERN UINTAS, ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRADDLING THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER, WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH, NOW SLOWLY
SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST,
SHOWERS WILL FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO CLIMB AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS A THIN CORRIDOR OF 130-150% OF NORMAL
PWATS. THE 18Z GJT SOUNDING INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN DRY. WE'LL
LIKELY SEE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TO START THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, AS WE SATURATE TO THE SURFACE. SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT MAXIMIZES. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS, IN THE LAST FEW RUNS, TAKEN THE BASE OF THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH THE 500MB LOW TRACKING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
THE 700MB LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF I-70 AS WELL. AS A RESULT, SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANGES AND VALLEYS HAVE COME DOWN A HAIR,
BUT TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE COME UP QUITE
A BIT, NOT ONLY FROM THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BUT ALSO FROM IMPROVED
WRAP-AROUND FLOW AS THE LOW EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS, WITH
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW MOST VALLEY FLOORS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST A FEW FLAKES BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. BY THIS POINT, FLOW WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACK EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DESPITE MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
DECLINE AS WE LOSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TAP, SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES UNDER
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY, RESULTING
IN A MORE CONVECTIVE REGIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. SOME
LIGHTNING AND THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL PARTICULARLY BENEFIT
FROM THIS PHASE OF THE STORM. ACTIVITY FINALLY WINDS DOWN TOMORROW
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC
LIFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN DRIVING ACTIVITY SPLITS
INTO TWO PARTS AS A SECONDARY WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST REACHES THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS, WHILE THE
SECONDARY WAVE FORMS A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, A COL DEVELOPS, INTRODUCING DRIER AIR AND QUIETER
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE SATURDAY MORNING, THE NORTHERN RANGES ARE LOOKING AT 5-10
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 6-12 INCHES OF
SNOW, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8500 FEET, ALTHOUGH A TRACE TO A FEW INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BELOW THAT ELEVATION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE UP HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH TODAY, BUT WILL DROP TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRETCHED REGION OF SHEER OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW GETS CUT
OFF FROM THE MORE ZONAL JET WELL TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST TO OFF BAJA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY EJECTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, TIMING AND
DEPTH OF THIS LOW WITH THE DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN TRACKING IT
FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND TRANSITIONING IT TO AN
OPEN WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT EJECTS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK IT ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AS A CLOSED LOW. ALL THIS SAYS IS THAT
IT'S A CUTOFF LOW THAT THE MODELS DON'T HANDLE WELL, AND THERE IS
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THESE FEATURES, BUT THAT BEING
SAID, THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK UNDER A GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL, FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE COOL FRIDAY TEMPS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FIVE TO TEN DEGREES SUNDAY AND ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES MONDAY WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN TEN TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW PASSES SOUTH,
BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL PROGS, IT COULD COME IN WITH
MORE OR LESS MOISTURE. EITHER WAY THERE ISN'T MUCH CONFIDENCE. STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
LOOK FOR CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT CONDITIONS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AND MVRF AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KTEX AFTER 22Z, AND
KHDN, KEGE, KRIL, KASE, KGUC AND KMTJ AFTER 00Z. THE OTHER
COLORADO TAF SITES CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR MOSTLY
AFTER 06Z WITH PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20
TO 30 KTS AT THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 04Z, AND
GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ010-012-018-019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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