007
FXUS65 KGJT 241145
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAVE ALREADY STARTED
CREEPING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER EXPOSED PEAKS. IN ADDITION, AS COLD AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD,
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20:1, WHICH WILL INFLATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIMITED
MOISTURE CONTENT TIED TO THIS SYSTEM HAVE KEPT ANTICIPATED SNOW
TOTALS HOVERING AT/OR JUST BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE ELEVATED THE
CONCERN FOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. IN COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9 KFT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE PARK
AND FLAT TOPS LOOK TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM, WHERE
SNOW TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING,
WHILE CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING THE GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS CAN
EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE A CONCERN FROM
RABBIT EARS DOWN TO VAIL, WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GREATLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES AS WELL AS CREATE ICY, SNOW PACKED
ROAD CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE CAA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIND CHILLS
OVER EXPOSED PEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO
DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO TODAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EAST OF
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT, CUTTING OFF MOISTURE SUPPLY AND THUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH COLD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WAA RETURNING FOR
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
REGION WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
SHOWERS, THOUGH ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER KDRO SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES AND MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ILS CIGS MET AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT
THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH STRONG WINDSHEAR WILL REMAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ALOFT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004-010-
013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERW
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...ERW
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