518
FXUS65 KGJT 301730
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1030 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUANS THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE HIGHER SNOW COVERED
VALLEYS AND BASINS HOLD ONTO THE COLD AIR UNDER INVERSIONS.
- MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR A NUMBER OF AREAS BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
- AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IN THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND WASATCH MOUNTAINS WILL TAKE THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE STREAM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
THE STORM THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS
MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT, SNOW HAS BECOME LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND LOCALIZED. THEREFORE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
THE STORM WHICH IMPACTED THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE AT 10Z. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED
WITH INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING CONTINUED TO BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY SUNRISE ONLY LIGHT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BRINGING LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THEREFORE, WILL
ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE AT 5 AM MST.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INSOLATION WITH
LITTLE CHANGE INDICATED ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS BECOME MUCH
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND IN THE GUNNISON VALLEY IN THE
ABSENCE OF BLANKETING CLOUDS, AND PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
ELSEWHERE.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL
IN RESPONSE TO A SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE AREA WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING INDICATED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THOSE HIGH, SNOW COVERED BASINS WILL BE
SLOWER TO WARM UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEKEND WITH ZONAL UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BY SATURDAY MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY FOLLOWED BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ASIDE FROM THE RISING TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL SEND PWATS SURGING TO AROUND 250% OF NORMAL ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING, QPF AMOUNTS, AND STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WITH MORE ROBUST FORCING IS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF BRINGING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL TO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER GUC AND HDN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THOSE PESKY LOW CLOUDS CLEAR, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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