937
FXUS65 KGJT 282356
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG IN SNOW COVERED VALLEYS.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
SKIES REALLY CLEARED QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE LATEST SYSTEM PUT AN END TO SNOWFALL. THERE ARE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE PARK RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING A DRY AIR MASS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES LEADING TO
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER VALLEYS...NEGATIVES IN THE COLD POOL BASINS. THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SNOW
COVERED VALLEYS STILL HOLDING ONTO A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION. FAVORED LOCATIONS
APPEAR TO BE THE GUNNISON BASIN AND UPPER YAMPA RIVER VALLEY
FROM STEAMBOAT SPRINGS TO CRAIG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY AS A CUT OFF LOW
FORMS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO FORM A REX
BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME WAA TAKING
PLACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER STAYS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WINDS
CALM, AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO FIND
A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE UPCOMING PUSH OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. THE MOISTURE PLUME, WHICH LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY BRING PWATS OVER 200% OF NORMAL, WILL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA WITHIN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY, THIS MOISTURE
APPEARS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOWFALL, PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS THE BIGGEST SOURCE OF FORCING LOOKS
TO BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY ON THE WEAKER SIDE, BUT
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
LOW TRACKS. PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS WARMTH COULD ALLOW FOR MANY
AREAS TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES, EVEN ALONG MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SO THIS BRINGS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SNOW RATIOS AND SNOW LEVEL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT SOME SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE AT SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY SITES OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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