938
FXUS65 KGJT 170429
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ROADWAYS MAY
BECOME SNOW COVERED AT TIMES.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE BROKEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A PUSH OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TONIGHT, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA.
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, THIS IS
COMING IN THE FORM OF DENSE STRATUS WHICH IS PRECEDING OUR LAST
CHANCE FOR NOTABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MUCH MORE THAN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ALONG
THE PARK RANGE AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE FLAT TOPS AND
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
RESOLVING A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
12 OR SO HOURS, WHICH MAY PROMPT SHORT PERIODS OF INCREASE
RAIN/SNOW RATES. REGARDLESS, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE PASS LEVEL. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEPARTS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY, GIVING US A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES AND
HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNDER THIS PATTERN, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LIKELY MEANS
BROKEN RECORDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WE COULD BE PUSHING
RECORDS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER COOL-DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
CIGS AT KASE AND KEGE ARE BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT THE MOMENT,
WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR AT SOME TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY KTEX, KDRO, AND KGUC) THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
CALMER WINDS SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW AT
KASE AND KHDN. HOWEVER, WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND AWAY FROM
TERMINALS, WE'VE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TERMINALS' TAF'S YET.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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