391
FXUS65 KGJT 302320
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
520 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF
TODAY'S CONVECTION.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
COOLER TODAY, MORE SEASONABLE TOMORROW:
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING TO OUR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY (5-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY) WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF TODAY'S CONVECTION.
TOMORROW, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS DRY OUT
AND WARM UP BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
WORK WEEK WARM UP:
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY THIS
WEEK WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I- 70. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. COVERAGE OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS BEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, BUT REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT COVERAGE AND
QPF WILL DECREASE WITH DRIER AIR WORKING BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR JUICIER PWATS IN THE
GEFS COMPARED TO OTHER GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FAMILIES. THIS MEANS THE
FORECAST COULD TREND DRIER IF THE EC ENS ET AL. WIN OUT, OR
WETTER IF THE GEFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GUSTS AROUND 20-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN WINDS DECREASE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
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