499
FXUS65 KGJT 180524
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
- UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE DESERT
VALLEYS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY BRINGS A RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET LIFTS NORTHWARD AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN WE'VE
SEEN RECENTLY WITH MORE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MAINLY FOR FOUR CORNERS AND GUNNISON BASIN. THEREFORE,
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SINCE IT LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER ARIZONA, ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS
SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH IT ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY
DRY. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM AS SOME HI-RES CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON
ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT AND DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY:
BY SATURDAY, WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A DECENT
80 KT JET OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS RAMP UP WITH GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS JUST
YET GIVEN IT'S STILL 3 DAYS OUT BUT IT'S TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION. SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE PEAK IN TERMS OF WINDS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AS WELL WITH THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WITH
NO WETTING RAIN EXPECTED.
CONTINUED HOT DRY AND BREEZY NEXT WEEK:
WINDS LESSEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S
TROUGH PASSAGE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
WEST AND THE STRONGER JET LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WE WILL
STILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEK AND MORE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE STILL ONGOING AT RIL, GJT, AND
CNY TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
IN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH ALL TERMINALS (ASIDE FROM VEL) LIKELY TO SEE
GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS. DRO MAY BE A LITTLE WINDIER WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00-03Z
REGION-WIDE. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO END
OUT THE WEEK AS THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER. STONGER WINDS
RETURN SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING WAVE BREAKS DOWN TEMPORARY
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING VERY MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST,
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN
THAN WETTING RAINFALL. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP
AT LEAST LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE EACH DAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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