889
FXUS65 KGJT 201105
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
- RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. IN FACT, WE BROKE THE ALL-TIME
RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH TODAY WITH 82 DEGREES. THERE IS
EVEN A CHANCE WE COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL, WHICH IS 89 DEGREES. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL RECORDS BROKEN JUST ABOUT EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND THAT MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY A SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THEREFORE WINDS INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. IT IS ALSO THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. CONDITIONS COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY
ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL RECORD BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE
THAT ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS HOT AND DRY REGIME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD
BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN DIVIDE, BUT EVEN THAT IS
LOOKING LIKE A STRETCH. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SO THE RECORD HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON SATURDAY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO BE THE MOST
ELEVATED DUE TO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. MANY HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS AND VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70 COULD SEE GUSTS EXCEED
30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY
FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM IN AREAS WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED
CRITICAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200>202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...GF
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