211
FXUS65 KGJT 112139
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER VARIABLE SKIES.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND
BRINGING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW, VALLEY RAIN, AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. MOISTURE PROPAGATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL
BRING PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE MID-
NOVEMBER NORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CREST
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW, WITH FLOW ALOFT
SWITCHING FROM COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO WARMER AND
MOISTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET DUE TO THE
INTERPLAY OF CLOUDS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
HIGHS CLIMBING A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER TOMORROW'S FORECAST, RUNNING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THICKER CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE, WHILE THINNER CLOUDS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. REGARDLESS,
THINGS WILL BE WARM, WITH THE LOWER DESERTS POTENTIALLY FLIRTING
WITH 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. WINTER REMAINS AT BAY FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
MODEL EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOC ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND'S STORM. A COUPLE OF BROAD POINTS OF
CONSISTENCY EXIST THOUGH: (1)LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW ELEVATION RAINSHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE WEST SLOPE. (2) PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200
PERCENT OF AVERAGE ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES QUICKLY AS WE DIVE INTO
TIMING OF COLD AIR, STORM TRACK, AND TEMPERATURE SPREAD. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER AND
FURTHER OUT WITH EACH RUN. THIS SYSTEM WAS INITIALLY SLATED TO
ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN PUSHED LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS SEEM TO BE THE
ONLY CONSISTENT MODEL, HOLDING STEADFAST ON A SUNDAY ARRIVAL. BOTTOM
LINE: MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS LOW CUTTING OFF FROM
THE MAIN JET SUPPORT, THEREBY REALLY SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
MEAN FLOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A POINT OF CONTENTION AMONGST MODELS TOO.
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS THIS WEEKEND ARE 15-20 DEGREES AMONG
MEMBERS, WITH SOME AGREEMENT AROUND A WARM BIAS AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION COOL THINGS SOME SUNDAY, BUT FREEZING LEVELS ON
SUNDAY REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SAN JUANS. THIS KEEPS PASS
LEVEL SNOW MARGINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHILE NIGHTTIME SNOW
LEVELS CREEP DOWN AROUND 8000 FEET. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF FROM
THE MAIN JET SUPPORT, A PATH FOR DEEP COLD AIR INTRUSION JUST ISN'T
THERE YET...AND MAY NOT GET THERE GIVEN SOLUTIONS ON THE TABLE AT
THE PRESENT.
A BLOCKY PATTERN ON THE PLAINS POSES A POTENTIAL ROADBLOCK FOR THE
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, INSTEAD JUST FILLING SLOWLY,
WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM PINCHES OFF ACROSS SOCAL AND REPLACES THIS
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY. MOVING FORWARD, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
WHERE MODEL EVOLUTION GOES. WEEKEND TRAVELERS WILL WANT TO CONTINUE
PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FORECAST,
WHILE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTERS WILL LIKELY FACE TRAVEL HURDLES AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTH UP THE DIVIDE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HANG AROUND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. BUT, I
WOULDN'T GET TOO COMMITTED UNTIL MODELS BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BUT BREAKPOINT CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS ON THE TERRAIN AROUND KTEX.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOSE OUT THIS TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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