786
FXUS65 KGJT 210436
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
936 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS BY THEN WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS SATURDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
A RIDGE ALOFT IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FOR TODAY, A FEW SNOW COVERED VALLEYS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM
THEREFORE HAD TO LOWER HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. SIMILARLY, THE
MODELS MIGHT NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FAVORABLE COLD SPOTS TONIGHT
SO HAD TO LOWER LOWS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOMORROW THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BY ABOUT 5
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST.
REPLACING THIS QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE PACNW. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION
OF THE AR ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY, AND ONCE IT
HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS SHOULD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BEGIN TO FEEL IMPACTS. UNFORTUNATELY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
NOT YET AGREE ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE. MONDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK THE MOST INTENSE IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT STORM TOTALS ARE INCONSISTENT, AND THUS WE CAN ONLY
SPECULATE AT THIS TIME. MODELS QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE EVEN
FURTHER LATE TUESDAY AS THE PACNW CYCLONE BEGINS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE CONUS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL PROLONG
OUR WET PATTERN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO, BUT THE EXACT DETAILS WILL
REMAIN FUZZY UNTIL THE EVENT GETS NEARER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 936 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AS THE REGION SITS
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE MORE EXPOSED KHDN
THOUGH WILL BE SUBJECT TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE "DIRTY" WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CIRRUS WORKING OVER THE TOP THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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