766  
FXUS65 KGJT 251711  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1111 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  
 
- A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND INCLUDING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
THE 25/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP HAS A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED  
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LINE OF NOAM...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE  
EPAC AND EASTERN NOAM. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED OVER THE  
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LEAD TO  
ANOMALOUS WARMTH BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLE H700 TEMPS  
ARE SIGNALING A 10+ YEAR RETURN INTERVAL UNDER THIS RIDGE WHICH  
WILL EQUATE TO MAX TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE  
QUITE WARM BUT WE SHOULD BE PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY BY  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGES  
ARRIVE. THE SPIN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALI  
COAST 24 HOURS AGO DRIFTED THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST UTAH  
CURRENTLY. THERE WASN'T MUCH FAN FARE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME  
OF THE CU UNDERNEATH DID SHOW SOME VERTICAL GROWTH. AS THIS  
WAVE PASSES OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK  
HEATING...THE MODELS INCLUDING THE CAMS WANT TO KICK OFF SOME  
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS IS A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR  
SEVERAL RUNS AND SO VERY ISOLATED POPS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN SAN  
JUANS. SIGNIFICANT QPF HAS ALMOST A ZERO PROBABILITY. SHOWERS  
LOOK TO INCREASE A TAD IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A  
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE HEIGHT  
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO INDUCE A LOW LEVEL  
WIND RESPONSE WHICH PULLS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG  
HEATING AND MOSITURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN  
CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW HOWEVER THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A GOOD  
MECHANISM FOR RELEASING INSTABILITY BESIDES OROGRAPHICS SO POPS  
REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY  
WEATHER WHILE RIDGING IS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH, AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT ELEVATES PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, AND DAYTIME  
HEATING OCCURS. ON THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, ON FRIDAY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUD  
COVERAGE INCREASES. SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM  
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS RETURN TO  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMES AS THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH BRINGS  
COLDER AIR TO THE CWA. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER  
TERRAIN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, AND ON SATURDAY PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK  
TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY SNOW TOTALS  
DON'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FROM THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS COULD  
CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW LEVELS END UP FALLING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN REGION-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE  
TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...15  
LONG TERM...GF  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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