074
FXUS65 KGJT 091803
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
THE LITTLE VOICE IN MY HEAD TOLD ME TO MAKE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z BUT I DIDN'T LISTEN. FOR THE MOST PART CAMERAS
HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AND CIGS ARE VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
UPWARD. SO WENT AHEAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THOUGH A FEW
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH NOON...PERHAPS BEYOND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE UINTA BASIN ANOTHER HOUR
AS SEVERAL WEB CAMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF VERNAL...SHOWED
VISIBILITY DOWN UNDER 1/2 MILE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
HIGH CLOUDS BEGAN INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT AT 3 AM. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN
HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, THE FOG HAS REMAINED DENSE AND LIKELY WON'T IMPROVE UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM.
THE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE GREEN
RIVER AND LAKE POWELL THIS MORNING THEN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH MODEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE EASTERN UINTA, ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE
FLAT TOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER
THE ELKHEAD AND PARK RANGES THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AHEAD THE
NEXT TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FLOW VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH A
LOW CLOSING OFF WEST OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS. LITTLE
MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THIS FLOW SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM. SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE DECEMBER NORMALS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY EVENING
OVER EASTERN UTAH, WHERE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET WILL
PROVIDE OPTIMUM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS STORM OVER THE WEST SLOPE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITHOUT AGONIZING OVER DETAILS
AT THIS POINT, THINKING AHEAD TO THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY WOULD BE
A WISE CHOICE CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD AT THIS POINT FOR A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE. MODELS ARE
BRINGING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOMETIME MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN A
GENEROUS ROUND OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT CLEARS THE ROCKIES AND EXITS
ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS ARE SLOW TO EJECT THE LOW OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SNOW FOR THE MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY OF WESTERN COLORADO AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARS THE WEST SLOPE.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR AGREEMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STORM. A ZONAL POLAR JET SETS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THIS LATE WEEK SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET
AND THE RESULTANT IMPACTS OF THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN MODELS TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEEK OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND MONDAY'S
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COLD SIDE AS WELL. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
WILL BE QUITE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEENS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY AS WELL. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INCONSISTENT THIS WEEK WITH
CLEAR SPOTS SEEING THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL LINGER OVER KVEL FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO ILS THEN VFR EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WORKING IN SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS LESS PROBABLE
FOR KVEL TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KASE AND KTEX WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES,
THOUGH KASE WILL HAVE PERIODS WITH CEILINGS BELOW ITS ILS
BREAKPOINT ITS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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