755
FXUS65 KGJT 121803
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1203 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TOMORROW.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. THOSE CONDITIONS BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE AXIS
OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE IS POTENTIAL TO TIE OR BREAK
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AT THE GRAND JUNCTION REGIONAL AIRPORT
TODAY, WHICH IS 92 DEGREES AND WAS SET IN 1960.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ON THE CALMER SIDE
TODAY. SO, DESPITE SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE VERY LOCALIZED
THANKS TO THE BELOW THRESHOLD WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MUCH
GREATER TOMORROW AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WIND GUSTS INCREASE
DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS, RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME
FIRE WEATHER ZONES IN WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE AREAS
WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ALSO HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX TOMORROW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO A QUICK MOVING SWATH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH, MANY OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN VIRGA DUE TO DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
RIDGING PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER OUR CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THIS PATTERN HIGHS WILL DROP, BUT ONLY
FROM 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, TOMORROW AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST CONCERNING
DAYS IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER, PRIMARILY DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS. TOMORROW GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST IN SOME AREAS.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ200-
202-290-292.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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