594
FXUS65 KGJT 051119
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE
WORKS THROUGH BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE.
- A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND THE REGION.
INTERESTINGLY, RECORDS WILL BE HARD TO CRACK, GIVEN THAT LAST YEAR
WE RECORDED 66 AND 67 HERE AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND JUNCTION ON THE
5TH AND 6TH, RESPECTIVELY. NONETHELESS, HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH
THE TOP 10 FOR BOTH DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ADD
TO THE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DIURNAL
SWINGS WIDE AROUND THE REGION, LEADING TO CONTINUED COLD NIGHTS IN
OUR COLD BASINS. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN NEARLY 10 DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE
FOR MANY OF OUR COLD SPOTS THAT MODELS STRUGGLE WITH.
LOW PRESSURE WORKS UNDER THE RIDGE, SLIDING ACROSS BAJA ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LIFTS A WEAK WAVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NIL, BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES
ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SCOOPS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEST SLOPE. THIS RESULTS IN OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY TAKING A BITE OUT OF AFTERNOON HIGHS
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SHEARING ENERGY AND MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD MERGE WITH A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
BASICALLY KEEPS SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW. MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE VIRGA AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE BLENDED MODELS
ARE STILL SIGNALING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (AROUND 20
PERCENT!) OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY DUE TO THE ADDITION OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY
KEEPING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START OUT THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, A COOLER AND WETTER SHIFT TO THE PATTERN IS STILL
LOOKING ON TRACK AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE
RESILIENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST LOOKS TO TAKE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY
HIATUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST THE FIRST COLD FRONT
AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO DROP INTO AND THROUGH OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS SNOW LEVEL
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN MANY AREAS...BUT THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND OUR SNOWPACK TRACE IN A
DIRECTION OTHER THAN DOWNWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY THEN DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
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