472
FXUS65 KGJT 090520
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH END OF
WEEK.
- AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DELIVER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
NEAR TERM:
THE WESTERN SLOPE REMAINS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL NORMS. A TROUGH
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE COMING
DAYS, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, MEANING THESE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS. DEEP MIXING THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS, RESULTING IN
BREEZY AFTERNOONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE HUMIDITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH AND
FUELS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE AT LEAST LOCALIZE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.
INCOMING PATTERN SHIFT:
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY EVENING, WHILE
AN EVEN STRONGER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE,
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, LEADING TO
INCREASED PWATS AND A GRADUALLY SATURATING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. PWATS
MAX OUT ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES OF 150-200% OF NORMAL EXPECTED, AND
SURFACE LEVELS FINALLY MOISTEN. COINCIDING WITH THIS MAX IN
MOISTURE, THE NOW OPEN WAVE TRANSITS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO, BRINGING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A COOL
DOWN, WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THOUGH, KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WE'LL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION
SUNDAY MORNING AS TRANSIENT RIDGING SWINGS THROUGH, BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND COLDER, DROPPING
SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8500 FEET AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH AND THEN A ROUND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN THE
COOLER, UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK COOL
TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE OVER WHERE
AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL, WITH THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE
FAVORING THE SAN JUANS. WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS THAT ALL RANGES
CAN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OUT OF THIS UNSETTLED
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE HIGH SPRING SUN ANGLE AND VERY WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW MELTING OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IN
STORE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT LEAVING VFR SOLIDLY IN PLACE UNDER A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. VIRGA OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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