655
FXUS65 KGJT 120510
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1010 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FT AND VALLEY RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW MAY ONLY OCCUR ON MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING
THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF LULL OCCURS
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
IT APPEARS DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE A BIT OPTIMISTIC WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN VALLEYS NEAR THE CO-UT BORDER. THIS HAS
DAMPENED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH
IT SEEMS WE'RE FINALLY STARTING TO OVERCOME THE DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS AS WE'RE SEEING MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ON RADAR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVEN'T DETECTED MUCH OF THIS
RAIN OR SNOW YET THOUGH, POTENTIALLY INDICATING THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THROUGH VIRGA SHOWERS WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP. POP'S HAVE BEEN LOWERED
20-30% MOSTLY OVER LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
RESULT. DON'T WORRY THOUGH, THE EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO SEE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WE'RE STILL SITTING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH SOME PLACES
POTENTIALLY REACHING RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LOW SNOW RATIOS AND A WETTER ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.
THE PARK RANGE IS FAVORED TO RECEIVED THE MOST ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH 6-12" FORECASTED ABOVE
9000 FT. 4-8" ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ELKHEADS, FLAT TOPS, GRAND
MESA, ELKS, AND WEST ELKS, AND LESSER VALUES OVER MOST OTHER
HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE RISES FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST
TOWARDS US. THIS SHOULD BE THE NOT-SO-GRAND FINALE TO THIS
MULTI-DAY WET PATTERN. AFTER THE NORTHERN CWA RECEIVED THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, THE SHIFT IN FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT'S A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW, SO EXPECTATIONS ARE ONLY
FOR 2-6" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ABOVE 9000 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION INTO THE PLAINS, BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD
BY SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH MORE
MOUNTAIN SNOW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WEST AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW DEEP THE WESTERN TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE AND THEREFORE HOW COLD IT WILL GET. THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE COLDER THAN THE WARMER GFS SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE VALLEYS
AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NBM INDICATING A SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY. UNTIL THEN,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH ILS
BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION BUT SOME LOWER CIGS COULD HANG AROUND.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-010-
012-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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