746
FXUS65 KGJT 200523
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1123 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BUT OVERALL MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION.
- DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE, IF NOT BELOW AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
LATE THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH.
OVERALL, STORM INTENSITY APPEARS ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW AND
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS.
DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO
COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS EAST
ONTO THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL LINGER FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THOSE CHANCES
ARE VERY LOW. OVERALL, SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE STORMY PATTERN WITH COOLER AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY ONWARD:
MEANWHILE, ALL EYES WILL BE ON OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER, AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE LIFTING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE FLOW BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND ALLOW MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER TEXAS,
WHICH WORKS IN CONCERT WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH TO DRAW UP
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. SO
IT DOES APPEAR LIKE STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH LATE WEEK,
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET, WHICH HELPS PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THE WAVE WILL
ALSO PROVIDE SHEAR SO SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. ALSO, FREEZING LEVELS MAY COME DOWN ENOUGH TO COAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WITH SNOW. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THE WAVE PUSH
THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH OR WILL IT LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IF IT DOES GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD HOW QUICK WILL IT RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK IS LOW ATTM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT. RAIN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT HDN THOUGH.
AS STORMS PASS THROUGH, HDN COULD SEE CIGS DROP BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS. NO TERMINALS, INCLUDING HDN, ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 10 UTC. THIS
LEAVES VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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