036
FXUS65 KGJT 180000
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON BY
LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL SQUEEZE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MIGRATION OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING BELOW
100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-70 TODAY, WITH PWAT'S
APPROACHING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM
AFTERNOON HEATING AND GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST PUSHING
THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ACROSS ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, AND
NEVADA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE
POSITION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL BE AIDED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING
WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE MOIST
SUBTROPICAL FLOW. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED FOCUS ON FLASH-FLOOD PRONE AREAS
INCLUDING ALL BURN SCARS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE
DECREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING MORE
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND IMPACT OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FOR THE REGION. THE ENSEMBLE BLENDS ARE TRENDING TO PUSH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WOULD BRING A
DRYING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AT MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...LTB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page