406
FXUS65 KGJT 150518
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1118 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH SNOW FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SUB FREEZING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OTHER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE:
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, CONTINUING
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW IS KEEPING VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL- AND NORTH-WESTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SLOPPY ROAD CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES, SO BE CAUTIOUS AND PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING IF OUT
TRAVELLING TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, WITH THE PLUME OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DIVIDE
RANGES, WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS.
SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY, AS THIS AREA TENDS TO FARE BETTER THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES UNDER THESE TYPES OF NORTHERLY FLOW, WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE EVENTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6AM THURSDAY MORNING.
DRYING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE PLAINS, ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST, BRINGING DRIER, QUIETER WEATHER TO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. BY FRIDAY, THE RETROGRADED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS SOCAL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH,
CREATING A REX BLOCK FOR THE WEST, WHILE DEEP TROUGHING DOMINATES
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STAGNANT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK.
MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER MOST DETAILS REGARDING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED. IN THE MEANTIME, CLEAR SKIES AND A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SLOPE. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. CLEARING SKIES AND THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND INTO
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS IN THE CENTRAL-WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES OF 25-30F ARE EXPECTED, WITH VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS
20F IN FAVORED SPOTS. IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION OR OUTDOOR
PLUMBING, NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT THEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. SNOW IS OCCURRING AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
INCLUDING KASE, KEGE, KTEX, AND KHDN. LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. EXPECT BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVRF/IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002-005-008-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page