248
FXUS65 KGJT 150436
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCREASE IN COVERAGE DAILY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
- GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ALL AREAS SEEING
HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY:
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST, THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
FINDS ITSELF UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AIRMASS NICE AND DRY, WITH MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A 60-80
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL MIX DOWN 25-35 MPH AFTERNOON GUSTS
EACH AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE DAILY, LEADING TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 1PM TO 8PM FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 205
BELOW 8000 FEET, AND COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 292. TOMORROW, AS
WINDS INCREASE A BIT AND THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPAND. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR UTAH FIRE ZONE 487, COLORADO FIRE ZONE 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, AND
COLORADO FIRE ZONES 200, 207, 293, AND 294. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY YET, BUT A COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALOFT AND PASSING WAVES TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST STARTING THURSDAY,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW, JUMPING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE DESERT VALLEYS,
INCLUDING THE GRAND VALLEY. THIS HEAT WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN A POTENTIAL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH
ROUGHLY 03Z THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
AFTER 03Z, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN PATTERNS. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
15-25 KNOTS WILL PICK UP AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER PERSISTS. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FROM 1 TO 8 PM TODAY FOR CO ZONE 205 BELOW 8,000 FEET
AND ZONE 292. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THESE
AREAS. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR UTAH
FIRE ZONE 487, COLORADO FIRE ZONE 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, AND COLORADO
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207, 294, 293, AND 200 FROM 1PM TO 9PM TUESDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-205-207-293-294.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ205-292.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ487.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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