716
FXUS65 KGJT 061150
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN REMAINS LOW, AND INSTEAD GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING POSE A THREAT TO NEW FIRE
STARTS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH TRIPLE DIGITS SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MOISTURE INCREASES, DRY THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY:
CLOUDIER SKIES TODAY HAVE INDICATED THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MODEST
MOISTURE TO THE REGION, AND ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLES, AS WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING, THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. PWAT'S LOOK TO RISE AS HIGH AS 150% OF NORMAL,
WHICH ISN'T MUCH, BUT IT IS NOTABLE GIVEN JUST HOW DRY WE HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. THE CONCERN REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH, BEING THAT
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE JUST TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN.
MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL STILL BE INCREASING, AS WILL THE
TEMPERATURES. CAM'S ARE PICKING UP ON INSTABILITY, BUT MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED, WHETHER IT BE SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAIN OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE
HI-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A BULKIER STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
IN THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH THE LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN,
AND MOST OTHER MODELS ARE NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS OUTCOME AT THIS
TIME. IT IS EYE-CATCHING THOUGH AND WILL BE WORTH MONITORING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS LOWER, ALBEIT NON-NEGLIGIBLE. SOME CAM'S STRETCH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND INTO EASTERN UTAH.
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS LOW, ANY STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF IGNITING NEW FIRES DUE
TO THE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUEL CONDITIONS.
AS IT STANDS, TUESDAY PRESENTS AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH POSES GREATER CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHERS. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ON
THE SAN JUANS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL STANDS AT 40-60% EAST OF
HIGHWAY 550 ABOVE OURAY AND AROUND 30-40% ELSEWHERE IN THE
SAN JUANS. ACROSS MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE CWA,
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL DROPS BELOW 45%. ALL HIGH ELEVATIONS ARE
FORECASTED AT A 35% OR GREATER CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THOUGH, WITH
CHANCES TRENDING UPWARDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE FORECAST RUNS.
THIS IS A COMBINATION THAT INDICATES HEIGHTENED DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MOSTLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HEAT-UP THROUGH THE WEEK:
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR A LONG, STEADY WARM-UP THROUGH
THE WEEK. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THE REGION WILL SIT ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PLACING PORTIONS OF LOWER VALLEYS IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS DURING AFTERNOONS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
DEPARTS INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE HIGH BUILDS NORTHWARDS, WE
WILL SHOOT UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OR HIGHER. AT THIS
POINT, LOOK FOR ALMOST ALL LOWER VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
INTO PORTIONS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO HIT THAT 100 DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PARTICULARLY KMTJ WHICH
COULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERALL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE SW CO TERMINALS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WITH MODEST MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION, WE ARE ENTERING A
NEW FIRE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERN, ONE NOT DOMINATED BY HOT,
DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT INSTEAD THE THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THIS POINT, AND SO THE ODDS OF THIS SYSTEM
NOTICEABLY MOISTENING UP THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO PAN OUT ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. THROUGH
THURSDAY, HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS ANTICIPATED
TO RISE INTO SOMEWHAT MOISTER TERRITORY IN REGARDS TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WITH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25-30% WITH HIGHER
PERCENTS TOWARDS THE PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS. OTHERWISE, IN
VALLEYS, SUB-20% AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PREVAILS. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR THE REGION IS THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, PROMPTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND EXCEPT OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THESE DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEW
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS THAT
COULD IMPACT NEW AND EXISTING WILDFIRES. WHILE MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE AT SLIGHT RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS, THE FOCAL
POINT WILL BE AROUND THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS.
BEYOND THURSDAY, MOISTURE DROPS OFF, LEAVING US BACK IN A
PATTERN WHERE BOTH THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS ARE DRY. THOUGH THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CONDITIONS FOR ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES, THE
SAVING GRACE WILL BE WEAK FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE REGION-WIDE.
WITHOUT THE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE DRYING SURFACE, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AVOIDED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, THOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BW
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