434
FXUS65 KGJT 240507
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- WHILE SOME RIVERS HAVE CRESTED, SOME RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE
THEIR CREST SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ONGOING FLOODING WITH MORE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND:
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PULLING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT RESULTED IN THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS IS SITTING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST HI-RES CAMS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS SPREADING FURTHER NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS VACATED THE REGION, PWAT ANOMALIES WITH THIS PUSH
OF MOISTURE ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
WHICH WHILE NOT AS HIGH AS A FEW DAYS AGO, IS STILL ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ISSUES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT MANY
AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND THERE IS
ONGOING FLOODING WITH MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS RUNNING HIGH. SO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN MORE FLOODING AND CONTINUATION OF ONGOING
FLOODING. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.5-1.0 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 160 CORRIDOR WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WHILE WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS, THE MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL.
HI RES CAMS APPEAR TO SHOW CONVECTION WINDING DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING. SHOWERS BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
OVERHEAD, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY AS THIS
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS.
DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK:
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL BE SEEING COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT A TIME. MEANWHILE,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEK POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BUT
OVERALL, CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY OUT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY RETURN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SW AND 4 CORNERS REGION PULLING IN SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE. KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY FAR OUT, SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS MATTER AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
VARIED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN AROUND KCEZ. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO, STILL THINK WE'LL STAY VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. BROKEN CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS CONVECTION WHILE
REMAINING TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE STRONGER
CELLS/SHOWERS MAY DROP CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY TO MVFR BUT DO
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PREDOMINANT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL HAZARDS THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND RIVER FLOODING DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES ARE
NEAR OR PAST CREST, BUT A FEW DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CREST UNTIL SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS OF RAIN ON SNOW LEADING TO MORE RUNOFF
MAKING IT INTO THE WATERWAYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST AROUND
11-13 KFT, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MELTING OF SOME OF THE
EXISTING EARLY-SEASON SNOW PACK. THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM RAIN
AND RAIN-ON-SNOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID RISE IN MANY OF OUR
CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS MANY OF THE
STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL CRESTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COZ017>023.
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR UTZ022-027>029.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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