681
FXUS65 KGJT 212355
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH THE
MAIN THREAT.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MORE LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS LINGERING IN FAR SW COLORADO ON FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS BEING REPLACED BY WETTER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE 21/12Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP SHOWS AN PSEUDO-REX PATTERN IN
THE CENTER OF NOAM...INVOLVING A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AT 18Z THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS DROPPING THROUGH
WYOMING TOWARD NORTHERN UTAH AND SHOULD DIP INTO OUR NORTHERN
CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GENERAL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
LEADING CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA
ATTM WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH UINTAS SO
FAR. THE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG
BEHIND THE FROPA AND AS SUCH WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE VIRGA ALREADY PRODUCING A FEW GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH.
SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM OROGRAPHIC FORCING WITH QUIET PREDAWN
HOURS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
SOME CLEARING LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
AGAIN OVER THE UPPER YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS AND ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE THERE FOR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO
SETTLE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY SUNRISE
ON FRIDAY. A TRAILING WAVE AND CURVED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT LOOKS
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO RELEASE INSTABILITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY
HIGH BASED SHOWERS THAT DRIFT IN FROM CENTRAL UTAH ON THE NOSE
OF ANOTHER JET COUPLET. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND TROUGH FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL IN THE SOUTH TO 10 TO 15 COOLER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. HENCE THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF FREEZING AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET FOR HEADLINES. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BULGES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MONDAY HOLIDAY.
THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOSITURE FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ARRIVING TO SOCAL INCREASES
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE 4 CORNERS...ADVECTING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AN COOLER END THE FORECAST IF THE EURO
VERIFIES AS THE SOCAL SYSTEM IS FORCED ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS BY A
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE WEST. THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS MAY BE LEANING AWAY FROM THAT ATTM. THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
AT KHDN. BY 06Z THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOSTLY BE TO OUR EAST,
MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KHDN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
PRE FRONTAL WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL KEEP A THREAT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT SETTLES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OVERNIGHT AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LEAVE LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY IN FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
AFTERNOON GUSTS LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN WITH THE WINDS LOOKS TO ALSO BOOST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THIS IN TURN BRINGS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO PLAY NEXT WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-290.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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