148
FXUS65 KGJT 211158
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY
OVER THE SAN JUANS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
TWO LOWS OF INTEREST ARE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW SLIDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND AN
INCOMING CLOSED LOW TURNING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS SOCAL. WE ARE
FIRMLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME HEIGHTENED
MOISTURE STILL PRESENT OVERHEAD. THOUGH THIS IS DRIVING A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STILL, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, DEFORMATION BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS IS BRINGING OUR
ENVIRONMENT FROM "VERY MOIST" TO JUST "REASONABLY MOIST." THIS
IS ALL TO SAY NOT TO EXPECT ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS CAM'S HAVE BECOME VERY
UNENTHUSIASTIC REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JUANS THIS MORNING JUST AS IT DID LAST NIGHT, SO DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE,
LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD YIELD MORE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL, THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH DRYING OUT
WE SEE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTING TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVER
ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK HAS IT BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN
FACE OF THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM DOESN'T
CARRY A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE 25-75%
ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE TO NINE INCHES NEW SNOW THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN FACE OF THE SAN JUANS SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ON
WOLF CREEK PASS WHERE THE SOUTHERN FETCH MAY PILE UP CLOSE TO
TEN INCHES SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE AS IT
MAY DISRUPT TRAVEL IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
AS THIS STORMS MOVES ON OUT ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY, RIDGING STARTS
BUILDING IN OVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALLOWING THE JET TO DIP
SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING A COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES
MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES EIGHT TO TEN DEGREES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING HAS
A SHOT OF MOISTURE DESCEND OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT COULD BRING A FEW INCHES SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS, BUT IT'S JUST TOO FAR OUT TO SAY IF THIS STORM
WILL IMPACT THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL. AGAIN, STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS ON
THIS ONE AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z WITH
CONDITIONS BELOW ILS BREAK POINTS AT KASE, KEGE AND KRIL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING DOWNSLOPE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AFTER 00Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB
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