637
FXUS65 KGJT 112327
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SW COLORADO UP
INTO THE GUNNISON BASIN.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR FRIDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS RETURN.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INCREASING THE RISK FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED, ALBEIT BRIEFLY, THANKS TO
A DRY, COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. AS EXPECTED,
SOME GUSTY WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING
DOWN SOUTH AND ACROSS CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CWA WHERE RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR AND
WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE, SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON BRINGING YET ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY. MORE ON THAT BELOW. ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH WILL START PUMPING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND MAY
ALLOW SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES (50 TO 60%) EXIST SUNDAY AS A WEAK WAVE WORKS ON
THIS MOISTURE AND BRINGS MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE SAN JUANS
AND AREAS SOUTH. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING THANKS TO DRY LIGHTNING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A
THREAT. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET TONIGHT AT
KDRO AND THEN REDEVELOP TO OTHER AREAS ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND MIXING INCREASES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS THE
AREA BUT POST FRONTAL WINDS AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS REMAIN
ACROSS SW COLORADO AND THE GUNNISON BASIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THOSE AREAS SO RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT TODAY.
TOMORROW, STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE BACK IN WHILE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. SOME MOISTURE
WORKS INTO THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY AND MOVES NORTHWARD SUNDAY
AND MAY PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COULD PROVE USEFUL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS
SHOULD ANY LIGHTNING OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AND TEMPERATURES
TREND DOWN SOME WITH CLOUD COVER, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MANY LOCALES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS, GUSTY WINDS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ200>203-
205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ207-293-
295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ486-487.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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