470
FXUS65 KGJT 301753
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN,
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND SW COLORADO VALLEYS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAIN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 8500
FEET.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERALL
DRIER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME JET
SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SHOWERS ARE OF A CONVECTIVE NATURE AND SEEM
MORE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BUT PRECIPITATION RATES REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BAJA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY
BUT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THAT WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH INFLUENCE
FROM IT. THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE INTO THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, SO THEY
APPEAR MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME WHILE OUR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DEPICTED BY A 700 MB
CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE SAN JUANS, WHERE THE
BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY WARM WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR SO
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE PEAK PERIOD
COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL SO ROADS PRIMARILY WOULD BE WET
BUT COULD BE SLUSHY AT THE HIGHER PASS LEVEL. SO, JUST BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING OVER THE PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE FRIDAY SO THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BE
FIGHTING WITH SUPPRESSION AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM THIS HIGH, LEADING TO SOME
STABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SAN
JUANS AS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THERE UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. MOST LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR SPOTTY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT SEEMS LIKE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS FOCUSED FOR BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, HIGHS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SLIGHT CAA FROM THIS PASSING
SHORTWAVE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NW COLORADO VALLEYS (YAMPA RIVER BASIN),
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND SW COLORADO VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S SO ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
SOME OF THESE HIGHER VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AFTER SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN COME SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN JUANS AS WE HANG ON TO REMNANT
MOISTURE. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A LOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAR OUT, AND MODELS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN
MORE AND LESS TOTAL PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE TREND IS
FOR PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND THE FAR
WESTERN COLORADO WITH MORE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS HOWEVER AMOUNTS CAME DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH
THE LATEST RUN. WITH THAT BEING SAID, IN LIEU OF THIS SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW ADJACENT
VALLEYS COULD SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS SHOWERS MOVE OFF OF THE
TERRAIN. INCLUDED TEMPO WIND CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
TODAY AS WELL. BREAKPOINT CEILINGS WILL BE A PROBLEM TOO, AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST UTAH WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WITH
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO HOLDING ON TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ001-002-008-021>023.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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