477
FXUS65 KGJT 091145
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH THIS EVENING, BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NORTH OF I-70
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
- PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
AS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN AND SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW, FLOW
ALOFT IS MOSTLY ZONAL. A 110-120 KNOT JET WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR
NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, THANKS TO THE
PASSING WAVE TIGHTENING UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70, AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, CAN EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THROUGH SUNSET. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE SAGS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT, STALLS OUT NEAR THE BOOKCLIFFS BY DAYBREAK, AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN TOMORROW AS FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
STILL 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW, HIGHS DIP AROUND 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SEND A SOUTHWESTERLY
JET MAX FROM BAJA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEP
FETCH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER(AR)
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING
SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS ON HIGHER PASSES, LIKE VAIL. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE STUBBORN WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE IS GOING TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES IN OUR LOW
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 50'S, WITH THE FOUR CORNERS IN THE 60'S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HELP WITH SNOW LEVELS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND
8000 FEET FOR A STARTING POINT. THIS COULD BE TOO LOW FOR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGER WARM AIR WILL BE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY LACKS THE PUNCH TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS TICK DOWNWARD
STEADILY EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS AROUND THE REGION FRIDAY WILL
TREND SOME 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT, TRANSITORY RIDGING WORKS IN ON A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A LITTLE SUNSHINE COULD RETURN SATURDAY, ALONG THE UT/CO STATE
LINE. HOWEVER, OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES AGAINST THE DIVIDE AND KEEP OUR MOUNTAINS IN THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES STABILIZE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY
AND BEYOND. ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH WORKS ASHORE IN THE PACNW
SATURDAY AND SENDS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW(MORE WARM AIR TOO) BACK
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DEEPER COLD POOL BEHIND THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND RAMP UP THE JET AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
AGAIN. SURFACE WINDS BENEATH THIS JET MAX WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
GET EVEN STRONGER MONDAY. QPF FORECASTS REMAIN GUARDED ON THIS NEXT
ROUND, BUT IT IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR A GOOD MOISTURE SUPPLY. AR
FORECASTS ARE KEEPING THE STRONGER MOISTURE SIGNATURES SOUTHWARD,
WITH AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WEAK AR FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS IS STILL A DEVELOPING FORECAST AND COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY BY MONDAY, GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE WAVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT AN IMMINENT PATTERN
SHIFT IS UPON US BY TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING. INCLUDED LLWS AT KHDN AND KASE FOR
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEER TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHTER WINDS THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS PICK UP BY MID-DAY THOUGH AND BALANCE
THINGS OUT BY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS SETTLING
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. BREAKPOINT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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