380
FXUS65 KGJT 231748
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1148 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
TO SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS EACH AFTERNOON.
- NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER A
HOT, DRY, WINDY REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RECORD HIGHS:
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND THE JET
LAYS ACROSS THE NORTH. DURING THIS TRANSITION PHASE, A 100 KT
JET STREAK WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THE AIR
MASS IS SO DRY THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO
OVERCOME...SO THESE "SHOWERS" MAY JUST AMOUNT TO VIRGA AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS MORE THAN ANY WETTING PRECIPITATION. THE RIDGE
REGAINS ITS FOOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FURTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT WAA TO TAKE PLACE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TOWARDS
25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEDNESDAY'S HIGH
COULD SURPASS THE MOST RECENT ALL TIME MARCH HIGH FOR GRAND
JUNCTION (WHICH WAS 87 SET ON MARCH 21) WITH A FORECASTED HIGH
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25TH.
LOOKING AHEAD:
WHILE GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK, A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVOLVES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ADJUST TO A MODEST 15-20 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, HOPEFULLY MORE THAN JUST WISHFUL THINKING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, THANKS TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE REGION. A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN LOCALES, BUT SURFACE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY. THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP WESTERLY
AGAIN TODAY, GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN SUBSIDING THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT TERRAIN INFLUENCED DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ200>202.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ200>202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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