074  
FXUS65 KGJT 091803  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1103 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 957 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
 
THE LITTLE VOICE IN MY HEAD TOLD ME TO MAKE THE DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z BUT I DIDN'T LISTEN. FOR THE MOST PART CAMERAS  
HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AND CIGS ARE VERY SLOWLY CREEPING  
UPWARD. SO WENT AHEAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THOUGH A FEW  
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH NOON...PERHAPS BEYOND.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
 
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE UINTA BASIN ANOTHER HOUR  
AS SEVERAL WEB CAMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF VERNAL...SHOWED  
VISIBILITY DOWN UNDER 1/2 MILE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
 
HIGH CLOUDS BEGAN INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT  
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY  
THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING  
COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT AT 3 AM. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE TRAPPED  
BENEATH A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN  
HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH  
CLOUDS, THE FOG HAS REMAINED DENSE AND LIKELY WON'T IMPROVE UNTIL  
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN  
UINTA BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM.  
 
THE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE GREEN  
RIVER AND LAKE POWELL THIS MORNING THEN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE  
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED  
WITH MODEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS  
TO THE EASTERN UINTA, ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE  
FLAT TOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER  
THE ELKHEAD AND PARK RANGES THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY  
MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT  
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE  
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON  
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S.  
 
A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AHEAD THE  
NEXT TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FLOW VEERS TO THE  
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH A  
LOW CLOSING OFF WEST OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS. LITTLE  
MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THIS FLOW SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN  
THE WEEKEND. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD  
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE FORECAST FOR  
TODAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 440 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF  
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM. SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE DECEMBER NORMALS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY EVENING  
OVER EASTERN UTAH, WHERE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET WILL  
PROVIDE OPTIMUM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE  
CONSISTENTLY TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS STORM OVER THE WEST SLOPE  
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITHOUT AGONIZING OVER DETAILS  
AT THIS POINT, THINKING AHEAD TO THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY WOULD BE  
A WISE CHOICE CONSIDERING THE LIKELIHOOD AT THIS POINT FOR A  
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE. MODELS ARE  
BRINGING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOMETIME MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN A  
GENEROUS ROUND OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND  
STEEPER LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR GOOD SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT CLEARS THE ROCKIES AND EXITS  
ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS ARE SLOW TO EJECT THE LOW OUT OF THE  
ROCKIES. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE  
SNOW FOR THE MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY OF WESTERN COLORADO AND INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARS THE WEST SLOPE.  
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR AGREEMENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
STORM. A ZONAL POLAR JET SETS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IT LOOKS  
LIKE ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW IN THIS LATE WEEK SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET  
AND THE RESULTANT IMPACTS OF THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN MODELS TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER ACTIVE  
WEEK OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND MONDAY'S  
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COLD SIDE AS WELL. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS  
WILL BE QUITE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEENS  
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY AS WELL. CLOUD  
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INCONSISTENT THIS WEEK WITH  
CLEAR SPOTS SEEING THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022  
 
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL LINGER OVER KVEL FOR ANOTHER COUPLE  
HOURS WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO ILS THEN VFR EXPECTED BY MID  
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WORKING IN SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS LESS PROBABLE  
FOR KVEL TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT  
KASE AND KTEX WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN. OTHERWISE,  
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES,  
THOUGH KASE WILL HAVE PERIODS WITH CEILINGS BELOW ITS ILS  
BREAKPOINT ITS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...15  
SHORT TERM...NL  
LONG TERM...LTB  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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