122
FXUS65 KGJT 182330
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 PM MDT THU APR 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND VAIL PASS OVERNIGHT.
- SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE BOOKCLIFFS/TAVAPUTS UP INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MIGHT SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT THU APR 18 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE STRONG POLAR FRONT JET TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
PIECE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. OVERHEAD, WINDS AT H2
ARE AROUND 70 TO 90 KTS AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURRING, WE'RE SEEING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS REACH THE
SURFACE. QUICK LOOK AT OBS SHOWS GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO FAVORABLE
WIND FLOW. CAN'T FIND ANY REPORTS OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND
AS SUBCLOUD LAYERS REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE SOME SORT OF PRECIP.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT, AROUND VAIL PASS MIGHT EVEN
SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OR THEREABOUTS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.
FRIDAY, THE JET CORES WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE CENTRAL STATES AND
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME. WE CAN STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON
GUSTS BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. A
SHALLOW TROUGH WILL START MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER OUR CWA. WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SOME BANDED PRECIP
SETTING UP...AGAIN, MUCH LIKE TODAY. SOME VORT MAXES WILL ALSO
MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AIDING IN A BIT OF LIFT. THIS
BANDED PRECIP WILL SET UP ALONG THE BOOKCLIFFS/TAVAPUTS AND
HEAD UP INTO THE FLAT TOPS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A SECONDARY, WEAKER BAND MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HI- RES GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO AS
ARE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS, NOT TO MENTION THE NBM, SO WE
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF PRECIP (.1 INCH OF LESS) AND ALSO MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ALONG
WITH SOME HIGHER CAPE VALUES OVER THOSE SAME AREAS SO THOSE
STORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT THU APR 18 2024
ON SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
THE TERRAIN WILL ALSO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH USHERS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH A LACK OF
FORCING SHOWERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY WESTERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS. AS
THAT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE PLAINS IT LEAVES A MIDLEVEL BOUNDARY OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO TRAP THE MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD MIDWEEK
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE EXTRA
FORCING. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS
IN NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALLOWING DAYTIME
HIGHS TO CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THAT WILL PUT
THE DESERT VALLEYS INTO THE LOW 80S, THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS IN
THE 70S, AND THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UNDER
THESE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH
ANY PLANNED FIRES, AS WELL AS BEING MINDFUL OF OTHER POTENTIAL SPARK
SOURCES, DESPITE FUELS NOT YET BEING DECLARED CRITICAL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO RUN IN THAT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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