636
FXUS65 KGJT 021116
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
416 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS BLANKETING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING KEEP THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS THEY WOULD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A THIN BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE AREA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS IT PASSES THROUGH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME
CAA OCCURS BEHIND THIS WAVE BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE
NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AND ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OTHERWISE.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST BY TUESDAY
FORMING YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK AS A LOW UNDERCUTS THIS RIDGE OFF
THE BAJA. A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES A BIT BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WHICH STANDS A
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGES AS A JET STREAK WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE. SINCE THE
JET REMAINS TO OUR EAST WITH OUR CWA, OROGRAPHICS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED BUT HIGHS
SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES, STILL REMAINING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE DIVIDE, CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
A DEEP LOW WILL DEVELOP FAR OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC BEFORE
TRAVERSING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN SITTING NEAR-
STAGNANT TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE REX BLOCK WILL GET NUDGED
OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS WILL GET DRIER WITH THIS, THOUGH WE MAY GET
CLIPPED BY A POOL OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITH THE DEPARTING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO WE SHOULD RETAIN SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EVEN AS WE GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHAT IS MORE NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN RECORDS ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE YAMPA
RIVER BASIN AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST UTAH, WILL BE THE
MOST PRONE TO REACHING RECORD HIGHS WITH THE NBM INDICATING SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF BREAKING
RECORDS.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE'S
LITTLE INDICATION AS OF NOW THAT THE REX BLOCK WILL GIVE WAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PACIFIC LOW
TO OVERCOME THE REX BLOCK AS EARLY AS MONDAY, BUT CONVERSELY, SOME
CLUSTERS STILL KEEP THE BLOCK IN PLACE. SO, IT'S TOO SOON TO
SPECULATE ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A PATTERN SHIFT TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT IT'S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO. SHOULD THE PACIFIC LOW
COME OUT VICTORIOUS COME MONDAY, WE WOULD EXPECT SOME WETTER
CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEK. ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT, WE WILL BE ABLE TO GAUGE WHEN AND WHERE OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS SIT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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