425
FXUS65 KGJT 021721
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS MOVING OFF INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN, AND HOLDING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
KEEPING DRY AIR WITH PWATS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO. TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WITH A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
AREAS STRONGER WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WHILE KEEPING THE RIDGE
FLATTENED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
FLIRTING WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN AREAS OF WESTERN COLORADO IS
HINTING AT LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DID NOT ISSUE
ANY PRODUCTS ON THESE CONDITIONS AS THEY ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
WILL WATCH THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR STRONGER SIGNALS.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HOT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS THE REGION, AND JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FACE OF THE SAN JUANS, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, LEANING MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GEFS AND EUROPEAN AI AS THEY CONCUR ON THE
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH SHIFTING TO THE EAST, A RIDGE BUILDING ON THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC
WILL START SHIFTING THE PATTERN EAST PUSHING THE HIGH EAST OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS GOING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT MORE
THAN A WEEK OUT, BUT THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO A MORE
MONSOONAL FLOW OPENING THE DOOR TO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING NORTH INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED
ON THIS ONE TOO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SOME BREEZY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OR WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY, EXPECTED TO REACH 18-22 KTS. FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ006.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ027-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ027-
029.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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