397
FXUS65 KGJT 121055
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESS WIDESPREAD SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH EXPECTED, INCLUDING HIGHER AROUND FAVORED TERRAIN.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN
ROADS MONDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
STRONG WINDS RETURN SUNDAY
A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING ASHORE IN
NORCAL. A SUBSTANTIAL JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY AND BLASTS THE WEST SLOPE WITH A ROUND OF STRONG SURFACE
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY ASPECTS
AND AREAS NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND LOWER YAMPA BASINS, AS WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH IN PLACES UP THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE WORKS IN TOO, BUT LESS CONCENTRATED
THAN TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. WE SAW MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I SUSPECT A FEW SHOWERS WILL GET A
HAND FROM REMNANT MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER FROM SHOWERS COULD POSE
SOME IMPEDIMENT TO STRONGER WINDS TOO. NONETHELESS, I THINK WE
WILL SEE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS, IN ADDITION TO THE
GRADIENT WINDS WORKING THROUGH SUNDAY.
WETTER, COOLER START TO WEEK
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL WORK THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM THAT HANGS UP A BIT IN THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS BUYS TIME FOR A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER RATHER
ACTIVE DAY. THE PERSISTENT JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
PRODUCE ANTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. FRONTAL
FORCING WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY TOO. PWATS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
RESTRAINED, AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH, WITH
COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WORKING IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SOME
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS ARE STILL SHOWING
SOME SPREAD, ESPECIALLY WHERE WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY MORNING TRAVEL WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME IMPACTS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. COLD AND WET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WITH ACCUMULATIONS SLOWING UNDER WARMING DAYTIME
CONDITIONS. LOW VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE TOO.
MID TO LATE WEEK:
ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
TROUGH TO DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO ROUND OUT
THE WORKWEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LEADING TO AREAS OF LLWS
THIS MORNING BEFORE THESE WINDS MIX DOWN AS GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
50 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES
DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ001-002.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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