515
FXUS65 KGJT 061140
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
- A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE CUTOFF LOW DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING IS LIFTING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH SOME JUST
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND
LAKE POWELL. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ARCED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PUSHING NEARLY 20 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY.
CLOUD COVER, MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS, WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. LATE THIS EVENING, THE CUTOFF LOW WILL WORK ACROSS BAJA AND
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD SEND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE DECAYING RIDGE AND SCANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT BACK
AGAINST ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, POPS DID COME UP A BIT ACROSS THE SAN JUANS,
ALONG WITH A WEAK MOISTURE SIGNATURE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 8500
FEET SATURDAY WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE. A LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE SAN JUANS
SATURDAY, WITH MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS UNLIKELY. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING AND WARM, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO
THE REGION SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND, AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THINGS CHANGE FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, AS WE
FINALLY UNDERGO A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE (60-80%) THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDWEEK POINT, WITH
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ALL SHOWING THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE MODEST
AGREEMENT, AND THEREFORE MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60%), THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER (THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES AND A FIRST SHOT AT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING WEST COAST
TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE, BUT ALSO A WARMER AIRMASS
THAT WILL FIGHT THE COLD FRONT. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
FAVORING A SOLUTION WHERE THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP AROUND THE
BOOKCLIFFS, WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER (<40%) AS MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ITSELF.
WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
IS ON THE WAY, SO ENJOY THE SUNSHINE AND SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES
WHILE YOU CAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN, AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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