945
FXUS65 KGJT 101040
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
FRIDAY
LINGERING MOSITURE IS STILL SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THOSE MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MOISTURE, BUT
THE MORE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG THE DIVIDE. LIKE TODAY THESE SHOWERS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. IN
ADDITION TO THAT AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN
OVERALL UPTICK IN WINDS TOMORROW. THIS WILL CAUSE MARGINAL ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE FUELS
ARE CRITICAL. THOSE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SO THE FIRE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A WARNING.
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDS OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOMORROW, AND MOVES INLAND AS A WEAK OPENWAVE ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES, AND WILL BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED TO WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN MINOR WITH ONLY A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTH INCH LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS. UP TO A FEW
TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH THE
WARM CONDITIONS, ONLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10,000 FT WILL SEE SNOW, AND
ONLY A FEW INCHES AT THAT. ON SUNDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE DRY.
THE SECOND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER JET SUPPORT
AND IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON MONDAY IT
WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER TEN DEGREES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT, LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND IT DOES BREAK INTO SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY, SO EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN ATTM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW LIGHT
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA FALLING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
AND THIS SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY
WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. GENERAL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AWAY FROM THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. A SYSTEM APPROACHING CAUSES WINDS TO INCREASE THEREFORE
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY ALLOWS HUMIDITY TO
INCREASE ONLY TO DROP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY, SO LOCALIZED RED FLAG IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200-202-203.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...DB
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