325
FXUS65 KGJT 191134
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
534 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
MANY OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
- A PUSH OF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND IN THE
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND BRINGS A CHANGE TO END OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY, WE REMAIN
SITUATED UNDER A COOLER AIR MASS WHICH MAKES FOR THE CONTINUED BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM MDT FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE VALLEYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS AND GRAND VALLEY. SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, WITH AN
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW STILL SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST. THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER
FOR THE DAY AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. AS A RESULT OF ITS RETURN FLOW, SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BRING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PROMOTE
STRONGER CONVECTION. ASIDE FROM THAT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTOURS WILL BE TIGHTLY PACKED ALOFT, MAKING FOR STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND THE SURFACE
INVERSION BREAKS DOWN, EXPECT THOSE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE MAKING FOR PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS GUSTING 40 TO
55 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES ON THIS.
PATTERN SHIFT LATE WEEK:
MOVING FORWARD, A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE USHERED
IN. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT IT APPEARS TO BRING BACK TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS FOR
THIS LATE WEEK EVENT LOOK TO BE MORE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND TEMPORARY WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT SUNDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NEAR
TERRAIN, THEN SITTING DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AGAIN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT. BREAKPOINT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-011-020>023.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ002-008.
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ024.
DISCUSSION...DB/BS
AVIATION...TGJT
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