673
FXUS65 KGJT 232007
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
107 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK KEEPING A MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN IN PLACE.
- THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WHEN SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. RAIN OR A MIX AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED IN THE ADJACENT VALLEYS.
-THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THE MILD
AIRMASS MAY LIMIT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, BUT A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BY TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING IMPACTS MOSTLY TO THE PARK
RANGE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 8-16 INCHES SNOW AND WINDS
GUSTING 60 MPH ABOVE 9,000 ON THE PARK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS FROM 6
PM TUESDAY TO 9PM WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON RABBIT EARS
PASS AND OTHER MOUNTAIN ROADS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 10,000 FEET BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES SNOW
POSSIBLE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ON THE FLAT TOPS, AND ON THE
MOSQUITO RANGE WEST TO THE ELK MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY ON VAIL PASS AND OTHER
MOUNTAIN ROADS IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
A 90-100 KNOT JET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY, ADVECTING IN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES, COURTESY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
REMAIN 230-270% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, FORCING IS REALLY LACKING FOR
MUCH OF THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE MOISTURE. WE GET A LITTLE LIFT
FROM THE JET OVERHEAD, AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE NORTHERN AND, TO A LESSER
EXTENT, CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN ELONGATED LOBE OF VORTICITY
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, WITH INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL ENHANCE ALREADY ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTIANS, AND THEN HELP SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUANS. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SHOT OF SNOW, WITH VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND SOME OF THE FURTHER
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE PARK RANGE WILL BE MOST FAVORED,
WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 8-16 INCHES EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BRING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED UP HIGH. WINDS SUCH AS
THESE COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES, ESPECIALLY VAIL AND RABBIT EATS. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PARK AND ELKHEAD RANGES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLAT TOP, GORE, AND ELK RANGES THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD.
ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING, AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES
AND RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE WEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, AND THEREFORE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, LOOK
FOR CLEARING SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADILY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD,
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ010-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...DB
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