766
FXUS65 KGJT 251711
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGH SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
- A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND INCLUDING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE 25/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP HAS A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LINE OF NOAM...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
EPAC AND EASTERN NOAM. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED OVER THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LEAD TO
ANOMALOUS WARMTH BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLE H700 TEMPS
ARE SIGNALING A 10+ YEAR RETURN INTERVAL UNDER THIS RIDGE WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO MAX TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE
QUITE WARM BUT WE SHOULD BE PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGES
ARRIVE. THE SPIN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALI
COAST 24 HOURS AGO DRIFTED THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST UTAH
CURRENTLY. THERE WASN'T MUCH FAN FARE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME
OF THE CU UNDERNEATH DID SHOW SOME VERTICAL GROWTH. AS THIS
WAVE PASSES OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK
HEATING...THE MODELS INCLUDING THE CAMS WANT TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THIS IS A SIGNAL THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR
SEVERAL RUNS AND SO VERY ISOLATED POPS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS. SIGNIFICANT QPF HAS ALMOST A ZERO PROBABILITY. SHOWERS
LOOK TO INCREASE A TAD IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO INDUCE A LOW LEVEL
WIND RESPONSE WHICH PULLS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG
HEATING AND MOSITURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW HOWEVER THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A GOOD
MECHANISM FOR RELEASING INSTABILITY BESIDES OROGRAPHICS SO POPS
REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WHILE RIDGING IS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH, AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ELEVATES PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL, AND DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. ON THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, ON FRIDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUD
COVERAGE INCREASES. SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMES AS THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH BRINGS
COLDER AIR TO THE CWA. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, AND ON SATURDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY SNOW TOTALS
DON'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FROM THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, THIS COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW LEVELS END UP FALLING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN REGION-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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