498
FXUS65 KGJT 021752
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
- MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR MOUNTAIN LOCALES ABOVE 9,000-10,000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TODAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER AND USHERS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
THIS WILL HELP A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRT WITH RECORD-HIGH
TEMPERATURES, BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
THIS POTENTIAL WITH CLEARING VISIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT'S ATTENDANT JET STREAK SPREAD OVERHEAD.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH WITH MOUNTAIN WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THIS EVENING, AN UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC
FORCING, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL
HELP TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND PROVIDE EXTRA FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. BY THEN, THIS MILD, QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2-6" OF NEW SNOW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE PARK
RANGE AND EASTERN UINTAS. 1-4" IS EXPECTED ABOVE 9,000 FEET FOR
THE REMAINING NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MINOR IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
A BUSIER, ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL, PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN TAKES HOLD WEDNESDAY. TRANSITORY RIDGING BEHIND
TOMORROW'S WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SPRING-LIKE DAY
BEFORE THE ACTION RETURNS.
AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ONTO THE CONTINENT FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TAPS INTO SOME COOLER AIR THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT . THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. SNOW
LEVELS LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT ANTECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS. WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE BEST SNOW RATES LOOK TO ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW, WHILE DOWN SOUTH IN
THE SAN JUANS IT'S LOOKING PRETTY MEAGER WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP HIGH.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GETS STRETCHED FRIDAY AND
BEYOND BY THE ZONAL POLAR JET WELL TO OUR NORTH, LEAVING A
PINCHED OFF LOW TO FORM OVER NORTHERN BAJA. SPAGHETTI PLOTS STAY
SOMEWHAT ALIGNED WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT. THIS COULD
PLACE US IN A QUIET, WARM'ISH, COL NORTHEAST OF THE CUTOFF BAJA
LOW NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT/CO, BUT MOST TAF SITES IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z.
BEFORE THEN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KVEL,
KHDN, KRIL, KEGE, AND KASE THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGJT
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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