678
FXUS65 KGJT 311932
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
132 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCOMING PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, VALLEY
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY
THROUGH 9PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOST MAJOR MOUNTAIN GROUPS ON THE
WEST SLOPE.
- ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY, WITH A WARMER, DRIER TREND THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
PATTERN SHIFT
AN INCOMING WEST COAST TROUGH IS PUSHING THE DEEPEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE WE'VE SEEN IN WEEKS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GRAND
JUNCTION STILL REFLECTS SOME DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, BUT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE SATURATE
FURTHER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF, WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT AND A WEAK VORT
MAX, DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES WE'VE BEEN UNDER ALL MORNING.
TODAY CONCLUDES A LENGTHY STRETCH OF ANOMALOUS WARM DAYS AND
USHERS IN A COUPLE DAYS OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ACTUALLY FALL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS BELOW THE JET MAX WILL REMAIN GUSTY TOO
AS WE SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DELIVERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ABOVE 9000 FEET. MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH MOISTURE REMAIN A
PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST. CHOSE TO KEEP WITH A WARM AND WET
SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY, WETTEST PORTION OF THIS STORM
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
FAVORABLE ALPINE ASPECTS COULD EXCEED THAT NUMBER IN LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ADVISORIES IN
PLACE THROUGH 2100 MDT. THE BULK OF SNOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL MAKE FOR SLOW TRAVEL ON MOUNTAIN ROADS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE, BUT TEMPERATURES NUDGE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY MITIGATE SOME OF THOSE IMPACTS AS NEW SNOW MELTS. THE
MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER
WAVE COMES ASHORE IN THE PACNW. THIS FEATURE WORKS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WE HOLD ON TO SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FIRST STORM. THE NEXT WAVE WORKS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD TO THE ELKS
AND GRAND MESA. THIS STORM BEARS WATCHING, AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO
HIGHLIGHT LEVEL AGAIN.
SPRING RETURNS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. MODELS KEEP THINGS ON THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE, LIKELY SENDING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK UP AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE DOMINANT, THOUGH CEILINGS REMAIN
HIGH AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SHOWERS FILL IN. KASE, KEGE, AND KRIL WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS BY 21Z. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE ALL RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS, THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES, INCLUDING KASE AND
KTEX, COULD SEE SNOW MIX IN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY, UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z, WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR BY 06Z, WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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