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FXUS65 KGJT 122200
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT AND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST PUSHING THE MOIST PLUME OF THE AR WELL TO THE NORTH.
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AND A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
BY SUNDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL
SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS,
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DRY WARM WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS.
ONE WOULD THINK TEMPERATURES WOULD AT LEAST WARM ANOTHER FIVE OR
MORE DEGREES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS
OF 582 TO 584 DECIMETERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND THE 15 DEGREES MARK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER, LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW SUN ANGLE
LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
HATE TO SAY IT BUT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GOING FORECAST. RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AS
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK ONWARDS AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH,
UNFORTUNATELY, THOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MAYBE SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OF
NOTE, THE EC IS SHOWING A BIT MORE PRECIP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. EVEN IF THIS
HAPPENS, NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS OF NOW...A FEW INCHES AT
MOST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO AND WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED, MAYBE A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF BROKEN. EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME QUESTION AT KGUC IF LOW STRATUS AND SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG WILL FORM. DIDN'T INCLUDE THAT IN TAF FOR NOW.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
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