149
FXUS65 KGJT 301123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
523 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST DAY FOR FIRES WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TOMORROW FROM NOON TO 9 PM
MDT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE MID-WEST AND EASTERN STATES
MAINTAINING THE VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
PATTERN, ONE EACH DAY, THAT WILL TEND TO FILL THE TROUGH A BIT AS
EACH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND KNOCKING THE
RIDGE DOWN A BIT AS THEY CLIMB THE WESTERN FLANK. BY THIS WEEKEND,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE BUILT IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE
JET RETREATING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER PUTTING THE
REGION UNDER GENERALLY A LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35
MPH THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 35-45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF UTAH FROM NOON TO 9 PM. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE
THE LIGHTER WINDS THIS WEEK, BUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION, SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO UP
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS,
AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO EXTENDING UP INTO THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
HEADWATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND HAVE THUS PUSHED OFF ISSUING
FURTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS UNTIL WE TO GET A BETTER PICTURE OF WHAT
THE WINDS WILL DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL BACK OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVING US A
REPRIEVE FROM THE DAILY RED FLAG WARNINGS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z. MOST TERMINALS WILL GUST 20-30
KNOTS, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SMOKE IN THE AREA IS BECOMING LESS OF AN
ISSUE, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME
TO TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE
THE STAGNANT TROUGH DRIVING THE DRY AND WINDY SETUP FINALLY
APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAKER WINDS
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MOST DAYS, FIRE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL
TO MODERATE WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW
AS WINDS RAMP UP ONCE MORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE DALLAS DIVIDE,
PARADOX VALLEY, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU, AND FLAT TOPS. THE AREA OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE EXISTING FERRIS
AND MCCLOUD FIRES WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH IN SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. THIS COULD PROMPT LOCALLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF ESPECIALLY ERRATIC
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOK FOR GUSTS TO REMAIN
BELOW 45 MPH TUESDAY, YET STILL STRONG AND CRITICAL TO FIRE
BEHAVIOR.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ200>203-205-207-290>294.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ205-207-290-292-294.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ486-487-490-491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ491.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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