516
FXUS65 KGJT 031140
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE COLORADO RIVER FRIDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY AND BEYOND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK. NEW FIRE STARTS
REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DUAL CELL SUBTROP HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A TROUGH OVER W.CANADA AND THE PACNW.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH OVER US ON FRIDAY TO KEEP A
THREAT OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. WITH NO MOISTURE RELIEF AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF WESTERN COLORADO. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS OVER SEVERAL OF OUR
ACTIVE WILDFIRES AND THE AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER
FROM THE RESULTANT SMOKE PLUMES. THERE REMAINS JUST A BIT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHICH LED TO
CLOUDS AND VERY HIGH BASED VIRGA ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING. CONVERGENT FLOW ABOVE THE UINTAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LOOKS TO TAP INTO THIS HIGH BASED MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AND LEAD
TO ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST UTAH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARD AND LEADING TO A WEAKER FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A WELCOME END TO TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THOUGH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN AN
AFTERNOON THREAT DUE TO DEEP MIXING. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE SOUTHWEST
PRODUCES A FAVORABLE FLOW FOR PULLING UP SUBTROP MOISTURE FROM
THE LOWER LATITUDES. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWS THIS MOISTURE
ARRIVING TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS EARLY
IN THE WEEK SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE
600MB THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO RESPOND UPWARD WHICH SHOULD
BRING SOME SMALL RELIEF TO THE SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL
THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE IS VERY LOW THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BRING SOME DECENT RATES TO THE GROUND. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE NEW LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
INTERACTING WITH OUR WILDFIRES. MOISTURE LINGERS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND WESTERLY FLOW USHERS DRIER AIR BACK IN TO END
OUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS PERSIST THROUGH ~18Z, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED ARE MTJ AND GUC WHERE VIS MAY FALL TO
MVFR, THOUGH VIS REDUCED TO 5 OR 6SM COULD STILL OCCUR AT OTHER
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO ON FRIDAY, AS FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WILL
WORK IN CONCERT WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY FAVORING
THE TERRAIN, AND COINCIDENTALLY, THE AREAS WITH ACTIVE
WILDFIRE. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REDUCING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DESPITE PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING. MOISTURE WORKING UNDER THE
HIGH LATE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE TERRAIN BUT A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
WANDER INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS. FIRE STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
THREATS REMAIN MORE OF A THREAT THAN WETTING RAINFALL IN MOST
AREAS. SOME RELIEF TO THE SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE MOISTURE AND HOPEFULLY AID IN REDUCING FIRE
INTENSITY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ207-290>294.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page