088
FXUS65 KGJT 261149
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
549 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
PREDOMINATELY DRY THIS WEEKEND:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRIER WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BY A FEW
DEGREES. MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BUT
THIS WILL MOSTLY LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
WET WEEK AHEAD:
BY MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING.
SOUTHWEST FOLLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO DRAW IN
MOISTURE FROM A PAIR OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS, INCLUDING POLO. PWATS
WILL RETURN TO UPWARDS OF 200% OF NORMAL, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. THIS INDICATES THE START
OF ANOTHER WET PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS, WITH THE
GFS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DRIER SOLUTION, WHEREAS THE EURO
CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE. CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE
MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH, SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON A FINAL SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE WETTER, BUT WHETHER THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT/ANOMALOUS EVENT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS YET TO
BE DETERMINED. STAY TUNED FOR HOW THIS FORECAST BEGINS TO
DEVELOP. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THIS MOISTURE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP BY A FEW
DEGREES COME MONDAY, WHICH ALSO MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DO THE
SAME. IF YOU'RE CATCHING WHAT WE'RE PUTTING DOWN, THAT WOULD
INDICATE SNOWFLAKES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR SOME OUR
HIGHEST PEAKS AND PASSES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S PRECIPITATION, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM A PAIR OF HURRICANES; ODALYS AND POLO. THE
FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX DUE TO A CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS
HURRICANE POLO APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE TOWARDS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING. THE CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN OUR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND THE
LOW TRAVERSES OUR SOUTHERN STATES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS MOST
PROBABLE OVER AZ AND NM, ATTM, BUT THE NORTHERLY EXTENT POSES A
THREAT TO OUR SOUTHERN SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS. CURRENT FORECASTS
SUGGESTS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT FACE VALUE, RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL SEE A BUMP
UP DUE TO SAID MOISTURE. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS AND COMMUNITIES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.
RIVERS HAVE RESPONDED RAPIDLY TO RECENT RAINFALL DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS AND INCREASED RUNOFF POTENTIAL. THUS, PROLONGED
PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THESE REGIONS WOULD TRIGGER
A SIMILAR RESPONSE. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS
LARGER PEAKS IN SEVERAL CREEKS AND RIVERS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 7 DAYS. HOWEVER, HIGH END
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS (I.E. ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE) MAY
LEAD TO RIVERS EXCEEDING ACTION STAGE TO MINOR FLOODING. MOST
PROBABLE BASINS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES INCLUDE; THE RIO
BLANCO, SAN JUAN, PIEDRA, LOS PINOS/VALLECITO CREEK, AND THE
ANIMAS RIVER BASINS.
CONVECTIVE STORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FED FROM SAID
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS
ACROSS THE CWA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY NORTH OF
THE SAN JUANS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THESE
SYSTEMS EVOLVE. ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO RESIDE AND/OR PLAN TO
RECREATE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW
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