880
FXUS65 KGJT 222342
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL BEGINS TONIGHT, PEAKS TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
1-4" EXPECTED ABOVE 10,000 FEET. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO 8,500 FEET. WATCH OUT FOR SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON
MOUNTAIN PASSES!
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
BREEZY, COOL, AND WET WEATHER. SNOW IS FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER, WETTER WEATHER TO THE REGION
TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT
IN TANDEM WITH OUR NEXT DOSE OF MOISTURE (PWATS 150-200% OF
NORMAL). THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
LOWER-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DESPITE THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING, WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING HIGHER (>50-75%)
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN TOTAL, 1-4" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 10,000 FEET WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6" (30% CHANCE). A TRACE TO 1" IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8,500-10,000 FEET. SLIPPERY STRETCHES MAY
DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.
ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND
HAIL AS LARGE AS 0.5-1" IN DIAMETER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUANS. OVERALL
TREND FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FOR DRIER AIR MASS TO PUSH IN AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY, PROVIDING
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. PWAT
ANOMALIES INCREASE TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
HITTER AND LACKS A BIT IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT, IT WILL PACK
A PUNCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH POWERED BY A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PARK RANGE APPEARS TO STAND THE BEST
CHANCE AT MEASURABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLATTOPS AND 1 TO 3 IN THE
GORE AND ELK RANGES AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO
MOUNTAIN BASES BY MONDAY MORNING AS H7 TEMPS DIP AS LOW AS
-5C ACROSS THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD SOUTH OF I-70. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND
HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS ALONG THE DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO OROGRAPHICS UNDER THIS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
HIGH BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON A TONGUE OF
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO TAF FORECASTS THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
TEMPORARY ILS/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
AIRFIELDS THROUGH MID MORNING. BEYOND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
BECOMES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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