985
FXUS65 KGJT 121137
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK.
- DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
BETWEEN 100F AND 106F. CONSIDER LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
- MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN THIS COMING WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY FLOW TO PULL IN SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
PICKING UP IN THE GUNNISON BASIN WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S LATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOST HI RES AND NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT. DEW
POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH, SO THIS SUPPORTS
BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, A WEAK HIGH CIRCULATION
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO INTO WYOMING WITH THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE ARCING ACROSS SOCAL, NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER AN EASTERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AND WHILE NOT SUBSTANTIAL, DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS EVEN
STRETCHING NORTHWARD BY MID TO LATE WEEK. STORMS INITIALLY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING INITIALLY AS
THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN AND SOME STORMS
SUPPORTING HEAVIER RAIN RATES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, WHICH
IS NOT COMMON, STORMS WILL MOVE WESTERLY. THIS CHANGES WHERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED AND THE PLACES DOWNWIND OF
THAT DEVELOPMENT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
EXTREME HEAT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR LOWER VALLEYS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
TRIPLE DIGITS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
BUT THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE OVERDONE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE...SO JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE CLOSE TO ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHS IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT LEAST UNDER THIS
HEAT DOME.
HERE ARE SOME ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS...
* GRAND JUNCTION: 107F (2023)
* MEEKER: 99F (2005)
* RIFLE: 104F (2021)
* CRAIG: 101F (2023)
* VERNAL: 104F (2021)
NOW FOR SUNDAY'S FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THOSE SAME AREAS...
* GRAND JUNCTION: 104F
* MEEKER: 99F
* RIFLE: 101F
* CRAIG: 100F
* VERNAL: 101F
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DRIFT FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SAN JUANS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED KTEX WITH
-TSRA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, A FEW GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EITHER.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ001-002-006-007.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ011-020-021.
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ024-027.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-029.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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