671
FXUS65 KGJT 240019
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
619 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
FRIDAY'S FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS BASIN AND ITS SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
APPEARED BORDERLINE, HOWEVER THE STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE MIDDLE FORK FIRE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE WATCH AS WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARED TO BE APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS
BUILT IN TODAY WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING A BIT OF
CONVECTION GOING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND WITH ONLY SOME VIRGA TO CONTEND WITH, IF
THAT EVEN FORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE THOUGH NOT 'AS' DRY AS WE'VE
SEEN LATELY. A VERY TRANQUIL DAY IN STORE WITH A FEW, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL START DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MIXING DOWN AS WELL AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN AS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SET
UP ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS. MORE ON THAT
BELOW. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES WITH
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY, TIGHTENING UP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHICH, WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MIXING ALLOWED BY THE EXPECTED WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. BECAUSE OF THIS, AND
THE EXPECTED LOW RHS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DROP OFF FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTINESS MAY LINGER FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SUMMER IS TRYING VERY HARD TO HANG ON JUST A LITTLE LONGER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO REGULAR DRAINAGE FLOWS IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING
THURSDAY. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCES PASSES TO
THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY RESULTING
IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH, WHEN
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 200.
THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM
NOON TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
A SECOND, MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, GUSTY WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING FARTHER
SOUTH. THE AIRMASS AND FUELS REMAIN DRY SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTHWEST
COLORADO ALONG WITH NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ASSESS WHETHER TO INCLUDE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AS WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARED
TO BE APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>202.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ200.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ486-487-490.
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...ERW
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL
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