603
FXUS65 KGJT 141123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
523 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, WETTER WEATHER SETTLES IN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 9,000
FEET.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME VALLEYS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.
- AFTER A BRIEF MID-WEEK WARM UP, COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY FOR THE MOST PART. ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO TO BE
DEEPER, DOWN INTO THE H500 AND EVEN H700 LEVELS, AND A MORE WRAPPED
UP LOW THAN THE OPEN WAVE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN UTAH,
CLOSER TO THE LOW, COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO START MOVING INTO
OUR REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. WITH THE
LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, PUSHING EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MOSTLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO REAL DEFINED FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT TEN DEGREES FROM
MONDAY'S HIGHS, OR TO FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES IN
MANY OF THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. BECAUSE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MORNING LOW, CONTINUED THE
FREEZE WATCH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLDER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEYOND:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF WARM UP, BUT THURSDAY WILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING 15 TO 25 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING
TO A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. IT'S TOO SOON TO SAY HOW
MUCH SNOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE, BUT SNOW MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT. STAY TUNED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAY AS WE
SORT THIS OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LEAD TO A COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AND EXPECT TEMPORARY
TO PROB30 CHANCES OF IFR/LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP. THINGS DO NOT LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR PREVAILING AT
MOST TAF SITES AGAIN BY 15/00Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ001-002-007-008-011-020>023.
UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
UTZ024.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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