875
FXUS65 KGJT 270648
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1248 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND
MAY LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TODAY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF
THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE GUSTS LOOK TO AT LEAST REACH 45 MPH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. THIS WIND ADVISORY NOW INCLUDES ALL EASTERN UTAH
VALLEYS AND ALL WESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS EXCEPT GUNNISON BASIN
AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH
RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
DRY AND WINDY WEEKEND:
THIS WEEKEND'S CURRENT SYNOPTIC LEVEL SET UP IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPPING SOUTH FROM THE PACNW WITH RIDGING TO OUR
EAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTOURS ALOFT UPON ITS ARRIVAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID, GUSTY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS, IN TURN, MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
AROUND ALL WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL DAMPEN FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN. ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
AND WITHIN THE GRAND VALLEY/UTAH GRAND FLAT. EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL WITHIN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE EACH
DAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY BE HOVERING AROUND THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND
AS WELL. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT NEW FIRE STARTS. THIS IS DUE TO A
PHENOMENON KNOWN AS HOLDOVER LIGHTNING. WHEN LIGHTNING STRIKES THE
GROUND, ITS HEAT CAN IGNITE ORGANIC MATTER DEEP BENEATH THE SURFACE.
BECAUSE THESE DEEP LAYERS UNDER THE EARTH'S SURFACE LACK ABUNDANT
OXYGEN, THE FIRE DOESN'T IMMEDIATELY FLAME, INSTEAD IT SMOLDERS
UNDETECTED FOR DAYS OR EVEN WEEKS. IT IS ONLY WHEN LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHIFT, SUCH AS WHAT WE EXPECT THIS WEEKEND, THAT THE
SMOLDERING COMBUSTION COULD ERUPT INTO AN ACTIVE, VISIBLE WILDFIRE.
MULTIPLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT. PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION BY
AVOIDING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE FLAMES OR SPARKS,
ENSURING VEHICLE CHAINS DO NOT DRAG ON THE GROUND, AND OBEYING ALL
LOCAL BURN BANS AND REGULATIONS. AS A RESULT OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL, IF NOT BELOW AT SOME
TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO
INCLUDED PROB30 AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
10Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL LIGHTER
IN THE ABSENSE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MI LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR
OUT BY AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK UP. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
AFTER 16Z WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING 35 TO 40 KT RANGE IN GENERAL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
POWERFUL WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER SETUP. ADDITIONALLY, THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
SEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO NEW FIRE STARTS.
FOR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN THE SAN JUANS, CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS, AND ROAN CLIFFS, RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL SOMEWHAT
HINDER FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE CONCERN LIES MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AND WITHIN THE GRAND
VALLEY/UTAH GRAND FLAT. ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
OBSERVED TODAY OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND BOOK CLIFFS,
WHICH COULD BE ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. ANY FIRES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND FUEL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. DUE TO THIS, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND AND PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ200>203-205-207-290>295.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ202-203-
207-290-292-294.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ001-006-007-011-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ002-008-020-021.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ487-490-
491.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ024-029.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR UTZ022-027.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ486-487-490-
491.
UPDATE...MDA
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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