462
FXUS65 KGJT 031144
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE DIVIDE AND NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS, INCLUDING SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO, TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. A
BIT OF A DOWNTURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE LIFTING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN COLORADO MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE, EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO ARE ALREADY SEEING PLENTY OF CLEARING AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIXING RATIOS REALLY TELL THE
STORY HERE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. MIXING RATIOS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 1 TO
2 G/KG RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO, WHILE SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO HOLD ONTO THE BETTER MOISTURE WITH MIXING
RATIOS IN THE 4 TO 6 G/KG RANGE. SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY LIES WITH CAPE IN
THE 300 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. THE HI-RES CAMS INDICATE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE DAYTIME HEATING
WITH CONVECTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AS WELL AS HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
COLORADO DIVIDE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL WITH STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE. QUITE THE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND ALONG I-70 IN WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THOUGH AS THIS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. WONDERING IF THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO
PUSH OUT THIS MOISTURE THOUGH, WITH MORE SUN HELPING TO RELEASE
INSTABILITY AND ACT ON ANY REMNANT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION. CANNOT RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
LEANING TOWARDS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR NOW WITH A DOWNTURN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND SHOWERS/STORMS FAVORING THE SOUTH.
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SIMILAR TREND
THOUGH WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING THROUGH AND HELPING DRIVE
THIS MOISTURE EASTWARD AND ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER TODAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW AND SWEEPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES US FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN THE PROCESS IT WILL PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PWATS VALUES
REACH 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL UP NORTH AND AS HIGH AS 250 PERCENT
OF NORMAL DOWN SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA IT WILL
PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE LIFT THEREFORE WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE TIMING
PROJECTED BY THE MODELS BRINGS IT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, WHICH
COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING. IF THERE IS ANY SUNNY SKIES THEN
IT COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. IF NO INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE THEN EXPECT POCKETS
OF STRATIFORM WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. JUST AS THAT
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE WESTERN CONUS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO
THE TROUGH KEEPING US IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALSO, IT
APPEARS THAT NOT ALL OF THE MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BECOME MORE BLOCKING INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH
MEANS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARNING TREND AND PERHAPS OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 15Z WITH KEGE AND KASE STANDING THE
BEST CHANCE OF VCTS. CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST HAS LEFT BEHIND
SOME LOW STRATUS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN RECENTLY
FELL. LOW CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS SHOULD ALSO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE AFTER 15Z WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD COVER. STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS, WITH KTEX, KDRO, KASE AND KEGE HAVING THE
BEST POTENTIAL SO INCLUDED PROB30 IN THESE AREAS. PRIMARILY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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