036  
FXUS65 KGJT 180000  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
600 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN  
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON BY  
LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL SQUEEZE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR  
WEST. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MIGRATION OF DRIER AIR FROM  
THE NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING BELOW  
100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONTINUES  
TO BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-70 TODAY, WITH PWAT'S  
APPROACHING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM  
AFTERNOON HEATING AND GOOD MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS  
ACROSS THE SOUTH IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE  
SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND  
LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY  
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST PUSHING  
THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ACROSS ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, AND  
NEVADA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE  
INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE  
SEASONABLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR  
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE  
POSITION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE  
REGION. THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL BE AIDED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING  
WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE MOIST  
SUBTROPICAL FLOW. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED FOCUS ON FLASH-FLOOD PRONE AREAS  
INCLUDING ALL BURN SCARS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE  
DECREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING MORE  
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND IMPACT OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE  
FOR THE REGION. THE ENSEMBLE BLENDS ARE TRENDING TO PUSH THE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WOULD BRING A  
DRYING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WORK WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SEASONABLY COOL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WARMING  
TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AT MOUNTAIN  
TERMINALS. ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE  
MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW  
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MPM  
LONG TERM...MPM  
AVIATION...LTB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab UT Page Main Text Page