978
FXUS65 KGJT 122358
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL
SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
STRONG RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LEAVES MODERATELY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME IN THIS
FLOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH UNDER THE MAIN JET STREAK ALOFT, SO
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AID MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON (>58 MPH OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS).
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
A STRONG 170+ KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CAUSE THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40
MPH AT LEAST IN THE VALLEYS AND SOME AREAS APPROACHING 50 MPH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING HIGHER GUSTS. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WIND, CONTRIBUTING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FUELS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT DEEMED CRITICAL, BUT THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE HOT, DRY, WINDY
INDEX IS ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
THE 170KT JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH A DROP OF ABOUT 20
DEGREES OR SO COMPARED TO SATURDAY'S WARMTH. SO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE
SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE DIVIDE WITH CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATING AROUND 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH THIS FIRST ROUND SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE PARK
RANGE ABOVE TIMBERLINE. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AS ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWING THE FIRST
BUT WEAKER AND MAINLY NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS PROVIDING THE MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.
TRAVEL COULD BE AFFECTED WITH SLUSHY ROADS AT THE PASSES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY RABBIT EARS AND
VAIL PASS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A HIT WITH A BRIEF COOL SNAP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BUT WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS REPLACED BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MID NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TOWARDS 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
WHICH TRANSLATES TO 80S FOR OUR LOWER VALLEYS. THIS LEADS TO
CONCERNS FOR ACCELERATED SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS SO SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE TRANSITION TO THESE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS , ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LAY DOWN BY 06Z THIS EVENING, BUT WILL PICK
BACK UP AROUND 18Z GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-008-
014.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-024.
SHORT TERM...15/KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...DB
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