337  
FXUS65 KGJT 051704  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1004 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LOOK FOR WARM, DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  
- A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS  
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
- A SECOND, WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023  
 
THE TROUGH IS WELL TO THE EAST OUT ON THE PLAINS, AND WITH THE  
RIDGE TO THE WEST, EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IS UNDER A  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNLIKE LAST WEEK, THIS NORTHERLY FLOW  
IS PULLING DOWN AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA AS  
OPPOSED TO THE BITTER COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA. HENCE,  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ON THE MILD SIDE. THE RIDGE  
CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST  
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUE THE EASTWARD  
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT RANGE AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO, AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE  
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD  
SIDE THIS MORNING. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL  
SEE COOLER, MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES WITH RADIATIVE COOLING  
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY EVAPORATE UNDER  
SUBSIDENCE AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND THE LOW  
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, EXPECT WARM AND  
DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY  
RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF  
DECEMBER. WINDS TODAY WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN  
BREEZES.  
 
WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, MORNING  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL STILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE  
THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE  
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES, CALM TO LIGHT BREEZES  
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. BY TOMORROW EVENING, WE'LL START SEEING  
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN  
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORE ON  
THAT BELOW.  
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023  
 
THE BEAST OF A CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF AK WILL THAT HAS BEEN  
FEEDING THE STRONG AR OVER THE PACNW WILL BE CRASHING ONSHORE BY  
EARLY THURSDAY. ALL THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM  
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK AND BRING AN END TO THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THE REMNANTS OF THE AR WILL BE  
PICKED UP THE JET DIVING AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A SOUTHERN TAP  
OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH CLOUDINESS TO OUR CWA BY EARLY  
THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOSITURE APPEAR  
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION  
TO THE GROUND IS REMOTE. LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY A WEAK  
FRONT WILL BE DIPPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO ADD A BIT  
MORE FOCUS BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY (<30%) OUTCOME  
FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FOR NOW POPS ARE FOCUSED ON THE  
NORTHERN TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS IN THE NBM WHICH FEELS WAY  
TO ROBUST AT THIS TIME. THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER QG  
ASCENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GET THE MAIN DIGGING WAVE  
AND A CYCLONIC CURVED JET MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS APPEARS TO BE  
THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD TO GET WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION AS COOLER AIR MOVES BACK IN. THIS WILL BE A  
RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SYSTEM HOWEVER AND SNOW TOTALS WILL BE  
LIMITED BY THAT...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW WITH THE LAST EVENT. WE  
GET ANOTHER SHOT OF AR MOSITURE WITH THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE WAVE  
PASSING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS EVENT DOESN'T LOOK AS  
ORGANIZED AS A FEW RUNS AGO AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ON THE  
LIGHT SIDE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST ON THE  
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL...DROPPING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
BEYOND THIS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023  
 
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME LINGERING  
LOW STRATUS IN A FEW VALLEYS, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN  
DRIVEN.  
 
 
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...DB  
LONG TERM...15  
AVIATION...DB  
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