940
FXUS65 KGJT 131135
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
PLENTY OF HIGH- AND EVEN SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INFILTRATED
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR DO NOT
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE AT THE MOMENT AS THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER HAS LED TO A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES SITTING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME LAST NIGHT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW REMAINS FIRMLY
PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON, LIFTING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. THIS WILL SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 0.30 TO 0.40 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION,
WHICH IS RIGHT AT OR UP TO 130% OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
MID APRIL. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SATURATION IN THE MIDLEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH A CONTINUED DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY BECOME SATURATED
IN THE EVENING. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE VALLEYS WILL SEE THEIR BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN PASSES THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE GENERALLY 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW FALL IN THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH AN
ISOLATED 6 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CENTRAL RANGES. HOWEVER, RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WHICH, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. AS ALWAYS THOUGH, ANYONE PLANNING
TO TRAVEL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST
FORECAST AND ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE HEADING OUT. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID LOOK LIKELY FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN CITIES LIKE CRAIG AND RANGELY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BEFORE IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS WESTERN UTAH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THIS MEANS WE WILL GET
DRY-SLOTTED WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ALOFT AS AN 80 TO 90KT JETSTREAK SETTLES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF
SINGLE DIGIT TO MID-TEEN HUMIDITIES, WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTH FORK REGION BELOW 8000 FEET.
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE, AND THE WATCH
AREA MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS PROGRESS.
FURTHER NORTH, SPOTTY VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THIS TREND OF SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
ON THURSDAY, OUR SLOW AND STUBBORN CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW FINALLY
GAINS SOME FORWARD SPEED AND BEGINS TO KICK EASTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS DYNAMICAL FORCING RETURNS, STRENGTHENS AND
ACTS UPON A RENEWED PUSH OF 700-400MB MOISTURE. AS IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY, SOUTH OF I-70 WON'T SEE MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AT ALL SO
AGAIN EXPECTING MOST PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED MID-
LEVEL LOW. AS OF THE 00Z CYCLE, IT APPEARS THAT THE PARENT
CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN ITS MOMENTUM AND EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF TO
THE WEST AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS,
MORE THAN 50% OF THE MEMBERS THAT MAKE UP THE CANADIAN, GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND BEING
HELD BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH THE REST EITHER MUCH WEAKER OR
MORE PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN THE ABOVE, I'M INCLINED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT
INTO THIS SOLUTION AND THINK UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THE TRENDS BUT THIS
COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MARGINALLY GOOD NEWS FOR OUR MOUNTAINS
WHERE OUR YEARLY SNOWPACK IS BELOW OR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO COME FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
HOLDING COURSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL VARY QUITE A BIT, BUT
WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE END. PLACES
THAT SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL END UP COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DURING THE DAY, BUT LIKELY A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE AT
NIGHT. THE OPPOSITE CAN BE SAID FOR LOCATIONS THAT CAN STAY MAINLY
DRY AND BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH-CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING, THOUGH CIGS REMAIN
ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS AT THE MOMENT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION,
FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE. LOWER ELEVATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE WIND THAN RAIN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOUGH TO
OVERCOME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LOWER CIGS
IN ANY SHOWERS FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE, MORE FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TAF SITES. SHOWER COVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
COMPLICATED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
DRY AND WINDY IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THE WIND LOOKS THE
STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUR
WAY. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD BE THE WETTEST DAYS THOUGH THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE BENEFICIAL TO SOME AREAS. FOR NOW MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST UTAH AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE.
EXPANDED THE HIGHLIGHT TO INCLUDE ZONE 292 BELOW 8000 FEET WITH
THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. CONSIDERED ADDING ZONE 295 BELOW 8000 FEET
AS WELL BUT, FOR NOW, RED FLAG CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MET
FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-292.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ490-491.
SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MDM/MMS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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