007  
FXUS65 KGJT 241145  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
SNOW SHOWERS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAVE ALREADY STARTED  
CREEPING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER MUCH  
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
INTO TUESDAY WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS  
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
OVER EXPOSED PEAKS. IN ADDITION, AS COLD AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD,  
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20:1, WHICH WILL INFLATE  
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIMITED  
MOISTURE CONTENT TIED TO THIS SYSTEM HAVE KEPT ANTICIPATED SNOW  
TOTALS HOVERING AT/OR JUST BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THE  
COMBINATION OF SNOW WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE ELEVATED THE  
CONCERN FOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. IN COLLABORATION  
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
COLORADO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9 KFT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE PARK  
AND FLAT TOPS LOOK TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM, WHERE  
SNOW TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING,  
WHILE CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING THE GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS CAN  
EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE A CONCERN FROM  
RABBIT EARS DOWN TO VAIL, WHERE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GREATLY  
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES AS WELL AS CREATE ICY, SNOW PACKED  
ROAD CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH  
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE CAA,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS  
DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIND CHILLS  
OVER EXPOSED PEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO  
DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO TODAY AND TUESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EAST OF  
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT, CUTTING OFF MOISTURE SUPPLY AND THUS SNOW  
SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM  
THE WEST WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH COLD  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON  
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PRODUCE  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WAA RETURNING FOR  
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
REGION WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S  
SHOWERS, THOUGH ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER KDRO SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM IS QUICKLY  
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS  
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN  
ZONES AND MOUNTAIN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS  
WITH ILS CIGS MET AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR  
CONDITIONS DURING SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE  
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT  
THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH STRONG WINDSHEAR WILL REMAIN AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ALOFT.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ004-010-  
013.  
 
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ERW  
LONG TERM...ERW  
AVIATION...ERW  
 
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