700
FXUS65 KGJT 171814
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1214 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROMISES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW DESERT VALLEYS.
- MONSOONAL FLOW BEGINS TO APPEAR IN MODEL OUTPUTS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
A MORE ZONAL REGIME, AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL SET
UP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE
WESTERLY PLUMES TEND TO GET CHEWED UP CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN.
WE SHOULD GET SOME CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON THE UINTAS AND FLAT TOPS, AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST
EDGE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUMPS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY, WHILE MODELS TRY TO RESOLVE
SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH(LOCATED OVER WESTERN
UT). IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE
CENTRALIZED OVER THE TERRAIN OF COLORADO FROM THE FLAT TOPS DOWN
TO THE SAN JUANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
VAGUE, AS IT DOESN'T EVER TAP A TRUE MONSOONAL PLUME.
LATE WEEK BEGINS TO EMBRACE ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT. TEMPERATURES
SURGE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT HIGH STRADDLING THE FOUR CORNERS.
TRIPLE DIGITS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DESERT VALLEYS AND
RED ROCK OF UTAH. ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO GRAPPLE WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THURSDAY AND BEYOND. STATISTICAL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH,
CLUING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUTS. FOR NOW, PLANNING
AROUND AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THURSDAY
WOULD BE OPTIMUM. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO STRENGTHENING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CAVEAT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
STATISTICAL SPREAD. GIVEN THE SHOWERY, MONSOONAL REGIME OVER
THE REGION, TEMPERATURES TAKE A RETURN TOWARDS COOLER, NORMAL
VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
GENERALLY FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO ANY TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE WITH GUSTS
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 18 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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