337
FXUS65 KGJT 051704
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- LOOK FOR WARM, DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A SECOND, WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
THE TROUGH IS WELL TO THE EAST OUT ON THE PLAINS, AND WITH THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IS UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNLIKE LAST WEEK, THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
IS PULLING DOWN AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA AS
OPPOSED TO THE BITTER COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA. HENCE,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ON THE MILD SIDE. THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUE THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT RANGE AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO, AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD
SIDE THIS MORNING. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL
SEE COOLER, MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES WITH RADIATIVE COOLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY EVAPORATE UNDER
SUBSIDENCE AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, EXPECT WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER. WINDS TODAY WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN
BREEZES.
WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, MORNING
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL STILL BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES, CALM TO LIGHT BREEZES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. BY TOMORROW EVENING, WE'LL START SEEING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORE ON
THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
THE BEAST OF A CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF AK WILL THAT HAS BEEN
FEEDING THE STRONG AR OVER THE PACNW WILL BE CRASHING ONSHORE BY
EARLY THURSDAY. ALL THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM
WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND BRING AN END TO THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THE REMNANTS OF THE AR WILL BE
PICKED UP THE JET DIVING AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A SOUTHERN TAP
OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH CLOUDINESS TO OUR CWA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOSITURE APPEAR
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION
TO THE GROUND IS REMOTE. LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY A WEAK
FRONT WILL BE DIPPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO ADD A BIT
MORE FOCUS BUT THIS SHOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY (<30%) OUTCOME
FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL. FOR NOW POPS ARE FOCUSED ON THE
NORTHERN TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS IN THE NBM WHICH FEELS WAY
TO ROBUST AT THIS TIME. THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER QG
ASCENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GET THE MAIN DIGGING WAVE
AND A CYCLONIC CURVED JET MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD TO GET WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS COOLER AIR MOVES BACK IN. THIS WILL BE A
RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SYSTEM HOWEVER AND SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
LIMITED BY THAT...NOTHING LIKE WE SAW WITH THE LAST EVENT. WE
GET ANOTHER SHOT OF AR MOSITURE WITH THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE WAVE
PASSING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS EVENT DOESN'T LOOK AS
ORGANIZED AS A FEW RUNS AGO AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL...DROPPING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BEYOND THIS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME LINGERING
LOW STRATUS IN A FEW VALLEYS, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...DB
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