717
FXUS65 KGJT 131143
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
543 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A FEW INCHES MAY FALL IN THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
OF 45-55 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA TO TRACK EAST TODAY BRINING OUR NEXT WINTER STORM.
PRECIPITATION FIRST GETS GOING OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ADVECTS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
CAMS MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND FORCING RAMP UP TO ANOTHER LEVEL TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
MAKE THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL HELP PROLONG SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THEN. IN GENERAL, 6 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF A TRACE
TO 4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE DEEP MIXING TODAY LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
WIND-PRONE VALLEYS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SNOWFALL TO CREATE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE IN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DURATION OF THIS WIND/SNOW EVENT, THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER FORECASTED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. PERIODS OF NEAR-WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND FRIDAY'S STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRODUCED BY SURFACE WARMING,
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ULTIMATELY YIELDING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM WITH HIGHS LAGGING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHOWERS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY FLOW BACKS AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH OF THE SIERRAS AND
BEGINS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND VIRGA AS UPWARD
DYNAMIC FORCING LACKING. THIS CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TAKES ON A POSITIVE
TILT. JET DYNAMICS COMBINES WITH MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FORCING INDICATED IN Q DERIVED OMEGA FIELDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE AR SURGE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE AIRMASS, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE
MAINLY RAIN WITH A MIX IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SNOW
LEVELS LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT SO THAT IN THE MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.
AS A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE WEST, SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY
SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES
IN THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR EASTERN
UTAH AND THE WESTERN COLORADO PLATEAUS. TEMPERATURES RISE TO 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH THEN DIP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS PICK UP
AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS ON
AVERAGE. CIGS WILL LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ001-002-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR COZ004-010-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ009-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ019.
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR UTZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
UTZ028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
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