678
FXUS65 KGJT 181708
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS A
QUICK TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.
- MOISTURE INCREASES TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. CONVECTION
CHANCES SHIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMER, DRIER TREND MATERIALIZES NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE VALUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
A QUICK, TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
FURTHER WEST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TAPPING INTO MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. IN FACT, CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
MOISTURE WILL START MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND BY
THE AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. BY THE EVENING HOURS, MOISTURE WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY WITH MOST
AREAS BEING NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN ON FRIDAY, AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT PWATS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE
UPCOMING MOISTURE PUSH IS THE MAGNITUDE AND OF MOISTURE, AND THE
LOCATION OF THE MAXIMUM ANOMALY. PRESENTLY THE ECMWF ENS HAS
ANOMALIES PEAKING AROUND 175% OF NORMAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, MOVING TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
BY SUNDAY. THE GFS ENS HAS AN EARLIER MOISTURE PUSH, AND PEAK PWAT
ANOMALIES AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
MONDAY. SO, THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND DECREASED CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE TERRAIN
BASED, BUT A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A WARMUP LOOKS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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