880  
FXUS65 KGJT 222342  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
542 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL BEGINS TONIGHT, PEAKS TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH  
1-4" EXPECTED ABOVE 10,000 FEET. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE  
DOWN TO 8,500 FEET. WATCH OUT FOR SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON  
MOUNTAIN PASSES!  
 
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE  
PRIMARY THREATS.  
 
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING  
BREEZY, COOL, AND WET WEATHER. SNOW IS FAVORED OVER THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER, WETTER WEATHER TO THE REGION  
TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT  
IN TANDEM WITH OUR NEXT DOSE OF MOISTURE (PWATS 150-200% OF  
NORMAL). THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN A  
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.  
LOWER-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW  
MAY TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DESPITE THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC  
FORCING, WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING HIGHER (>50-75%)  
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
IN TOTAL, 1-4" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 10,000 FEET WITH  
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6" (30% CHANCE). A TRACE TO 1" IS  
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8,500-10,000 FEET. SLIPPERY STRETCHES MAY  
DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE  
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.  
 
ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW, STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONGER STORMS  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND  
HAIL AS LARGE AS 0.5-1" IN DIAMETER.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING  
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WITH ISOLATED  
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUANS. OVERALL  
TREND FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FOR DRIER AIR MASS TO PUSH IN AS  
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY, PROVIDING  
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM  
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE  
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. PWAT  
ANOMALIES INCREASE TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AS THIS LOW  
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK  
HITTER AND LACKS A BIT IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT, IT WILL PACK  
A PUNCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH POWERED BY A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET  
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR  
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE PARK RANGE APPEARS TO STAND THE BEST  
CHANCE AT MEASURABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8  
INCHES, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLATTOPS AND 1 TO 3 IN THE  
GORE AND ELK RANGES AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO  
MOUNTAIN BASES BY MONDAY MORNING AS H7 TEMPS DIP AS LOW AS  
-5C ACROSS THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD SOUTH OF I-70. THERE  
IS POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND  
HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS ALONG THE DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND  
SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO OROGRAPHICS UNDER THIS COOLER  
AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
HIGH BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ON A TONGUE OF  
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO TAF FORECASTS THIS EVENING.  
ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS  
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH  
TEMPORARY ILS/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN  
AIRFIELDS THROUGH MID MORNING. BEYOND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY  
BECOMES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL  
HAVE A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL.  
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KAA  
LONG TERM...MDA  
AVIATION...TGJT  
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