575
FXUS65 KGJT 210526
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1126 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE:
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL DO LITTLE TO BREAK THE REGION OUT OF IT'S WARM, DRY,
AND WINDY SPELL. THIS MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TO BE OUR MAIN FOCUS. SUNDAY'S RISK WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SATURDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER (ALBIET STILL DRY) RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
THAT RISK GROWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. AS A RESULT, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS IN THE DESERT VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THERE IS FINALLY SOME SEMBLANCE OF MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATER ON IN THE WEEK. DESPITE PWATS POTENTIALLY RISING TO
150-175% OF NORMAL, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT
THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE
DELAYED COMPARED TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SCATTERED MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER TERMINALS
NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT, BUT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DO SETTLE BACK IN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 18-25 KTS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MILDLY REDUCED VIS DUE TO SMOKE FROM UTAH
FIRES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THIS IMPACT IS CNY
BETWEEN 08-15Z. LOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VEL BETWEEN NOW AT
08Z, AND GJT BETWEEN 11-15Z. SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED ON
SUNDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP WITH THE HEAT EARLY THIS WEEK.
GUSTY WINDS AND SINGLE-DIGIT RH ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS LED TO US ISSUING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RED
FLAG WARNINGS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ207-
290>295.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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