903
FXUS65 KGJT 102343
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
543 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
- DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A SHIFT TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY TO END THE WORK WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN ZONAL,
KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY. BECAUSE OF THIS,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT OF AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING, UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN ADDITION
TO DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BELOW 15%. HENCE, LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
MOISTURE PUSH THIS WEEKEND:
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT
STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT CHANCES DON'T LOOK VERY
WIDESPREAD. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING INTO THE PACNW SATURDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE DOMINANT FLOW ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, A FAVORABLE FLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH ONE
CAVEAT PRESENTS ITSELF...A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. ALL THIS
MOISTURE IS NO GOOD IF THERE'S NOTHING TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FORM. SO BESIDES FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WORK TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, BUT
EVEN THAT APPEARS TO DIFFUSE AS IT REACHES THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AS MORE
GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THE MOISTURE PUSH, THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE FAVORED WITH THIS
SET UP. GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND DAYTIME
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AT KVEL AND KCNY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...RJ/TGJT
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