843
FXUS65 KGJT 091120
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
520 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 FAVORED.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVOR SOUTHEAST UT
AND SOUTHWEST CO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE/BUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AND
EXPAND EAST OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WITH A WEAK JET STREAK SUPPORTING IT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT IS KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF I-70, BUT THERE ARE A FEW
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS. THESE STORMS AREN'T PRODUCING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP, BUT CAN KICK OUT SOME GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. LOOK
FOR THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING,
BUT WILL REDEVELOP AROUND NOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THERE WILL BE
FEW STORMS TOMORROW THAN WE HAD TODAY AND THEY WILL STAY MOSTLY TO
THE NORTH AND WILL BE ENDING BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW WILL WARM TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY,
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY, AND NEAR RECORD 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, THE HOT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO NON EXISTENT
BRINGING AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOES SEEM TO PULL MOISTURE AROUND IT UP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WITH MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO SLIP
INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HIGH. THIS WOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FAVORING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
SO, A FEW COULD POP OVER THE SAN JUANS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS CONVECTION AT KASE AND KEGE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED, REACHING 20 TO 25
KTS. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THOUGHT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023.
UT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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