298
FXUS65 KGJT 240552
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VISIBLE TODAY DUE TO FIRES BURNING
IN UTAH.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WE HAVE ALLOWED TUESDAY'S RED FLAG WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. WIND
GUSTS HAVE SETTLED DOWN, ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE:
PERIODS OF SMOKY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RESULT OF WILDFIRES
BURNING IN UTAH. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO PUSH THAT SMOKE INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE MODEL
IS DEPICTING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE MORNING HOURS TO BE THE
WORST FOR THE AREA, WITH CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT IMPROVING BY MID
MORNING. MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN AIR QUALITY
ALERT UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY. CONSIDER LIMITING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WHEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SMOKE IS PRESENT.
MIDWEEK MOISTURE:
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TODAY AS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE ONSET OF THIS
MOISTURE. GUSTS WERE ALREADY BORDERLINE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE VICINITY MAY REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE. HENCE, HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY.
ELEVATED MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE LONG STRETCH OF DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS,
VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT FIRST, BUT AS MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WETTING RAINS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
EXPECTED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.40 INCHES. LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS, RANGING FROM A TRACE UP TO 0.15
INCHES. EITHER WAY, ANY ACCUMULATION IS APPRECIATED AT THIS
POINT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALLOW INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO HOVER AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DRY AIR MAKES A RETURN FRIDAY, CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY.
FIRE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND:
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN DROPPING FROM THE PACNW FRIDAY,
WHICH IN TURN, WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTOURS ALOFT AND
INVITE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO. WE
LOOK TO HOLD ON TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SMOKE FROM UTAH WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
WITH THE AREA OF SMOKE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PUT SMOKE IN THE TAF AT KGJT, KCNY, KASE, KMTJ, KTEX AND
KGUC WHERE THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ADDED TEMPO FOR
VIS REDUCTION TO 4SM AT KGJT AND KCNY WHERE VISIBILITY REDUCTION
IS MORE LIKELY. VISIBILITY LOOKS TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS MIXING OCCURS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER 00Z. ASIDE FROM VISIBILITY
CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
(PARTICULARLY KGJT AND KCNY OVERNIGHT), VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TODAY AS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND ERRATIC VIRGA OUTFLOW WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE INITIAL ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES DURING THE DAY, CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL TEMPORARILY RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, BUT DRY AIR MAKES A RETURN
FRIDAY AND DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN
FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
CONCERNING DAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MORE UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO UPCOMING FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR WEBSITE AS UPDATES ARE MADE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-207-290.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
UPDATE...BS
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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