046
FXUS65 KGJT 282322
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE YAMPA BASIN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN 8000 FEET AND
ABOVE.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH MEASURABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN MAKING IT TO VALLEY
FLOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BROAD, PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WITH THE JET
DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS
PROMISES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GIVEN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND A
POOL OF REMNANT MOISTURE LAYING AROUND. DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPE
AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TODAY, CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS TO
BE KEEPING SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RADAR RETURNS JUST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELED SOUNDINGS ERASE
SOME OF THE CAP AT THE MID LEVELS AND IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS COULD SPRING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE TERRAIN.
THINNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO FINDS
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SUBFREEZING RANGE. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE YAMPA AND CENTRAL COLORADO
BASINS.
MORE MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS BAJA AND LIFTS A
PLUME OF EXTRA-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE,
MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOW
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ROAD IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY AT
THE PASS LEVEL, BUT COMMUTERS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEIR
ROUTES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 8500 FEET THROUGH THIS
EVENT, WITH OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOWER. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY, AS THE LOW SPINS EAST BENEATH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS FEATURE FINALLY WINS OUT EARLY SATURDAY AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND
HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTS THE JET SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY GET A HAND FROM SUNSHINE ON THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS,
WITH NON ZERO CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEKEND ON
THE TERRAIN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE ANOTHER
LOW WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW PROBABLY IN THE MIX. BONE DRY
CONDITIONS ALL WINTER MAKE THIS A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY BE REACHED AT KASE
AND KEGE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
TOMORROW AFTER 18Z, SOME HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS COULD SEE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AT KASE AND
KEGE WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL AT KRIL AND KGUC. IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ001-002-008.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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