481
FXUS65 KGJT 231126
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
UNDER 2 TO 4".
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW MAINLY
TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.
- A LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS ALSO ON THE HORIZON SO ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
THEREFORE MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TRAVEL
IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER A MODERATE STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVED IN.
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A LACK OF FORCING ALOFT ONLY
SUPPORTS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE PARK RANGE WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6" ARE
EXPECTED. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL POSSIBLE FROM SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON MOUNTAIN ROADS. DRIVE CAREFULLY. SNOW MOVES OUT
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN THE RETURN
OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
THE NEXT STORM IN A SERIES WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COASTAL
REGION INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM
HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW LOOKS TO
DIG ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AS A CLOSED SYSTEM BY MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A MODERATELY STRONG CENTRAL
CALI AR WILL BE PUSHED IN AHEAD OF THE STORM SPREADING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MANY SOUTH FACING SLOPES IN THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HOWEVER LOOKS
TO COME LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM TRACKS
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
AND OROGRAPHICS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AS THE
CYCLONE PASSES WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
CENTRAL CO RANGES DURING THIS PHASE OF THE STORM. THE
PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IS TRENDING TOWARD A 50/50
PROSPECT IN THESE AREAS. THOUGH CLOSED...THIS STORM WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES TO THE UPSTREAM COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FORCES IT WELL ONTO THE PLAINS. SO A BRIEF
BREAK THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AS TRANSITORY RIDGING WORKS THROUGH. A
PERSISTENT FETCH OF AR MOSITURE WILL BE INVADING THE PACNW
COASTLINE AND BEING PULLED THROUGH A MAINLY FLAT AND FAST
WESTERLY PATTERN SETTING UP BY LATE WEEK. THE STORM TRACK BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NOSE OF THE JET ALOFT
LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE AND A FEW MORE
EMBEDDED WAVE PROVIDES LARGE SCALE ASCENT MORE SNOW PRODUCTION
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STILL A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE PV ENERGY IN THESE WAVES AND HOW THEY DIG
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
SATURDAY ARE A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BROAD RIDGING
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY SUNDAY AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS
WOULD BE MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT IS SETTING UP. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...EXPECT THE
BLENDED MODEL POPS SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE MILD SIDE EVEN WITH THE COLD DOWN BEHIND
THE MID- WEEK SYSTEM. THE GUNNISON BASIN REMAINS THE WILD CARD
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ENTRENCHED IN PLACE. WILL THE MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THIS COLD DOME LEAD TO INFLATED SNOW AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY OR WILL THE STORM BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FLUSH IT OUT?
NOT WILLING TO BET ANY CHIPS ON THIS EITHER WAY JUST YET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH BEST CHANCE OF VCSH
AT KHDN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MVFR AT TIMES AND CIGS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW AND CLOUDS LINGERING UP NORTH.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
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