615
FXUS65 KGJT 190013
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOWER BASINS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM TUESDAY ONWARD, FINALLY
REACHING NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS AND PARK
RANGE BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SO DROPPED
THEM BOTH. COLD TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ON TRACK OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER:
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO, WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS FILLING IN.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, FEELING MORE
LIKE MARCH THAN MAY. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT ACCOMPANIED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A LID ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS AND PARK AND ELKHEAD RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST, RESULTING IN FREEZE CONCERNS, DISCUSSED BELOW. AFTER A COLD
START TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. THAT SAID, WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE FINALLY REACHING LATE-
MAY NORMS ON THURSDAY. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE IN THE WEEK, AS A QUICK-
MOVING WAVE CLIPS NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING AND SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT, FREEZE POTENTIAL REMAINS A CONCERN. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW, THOUGH THE YAMPA BASIN IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
HARD FREEZE. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE YAMPA RIVER
BASIN, THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CO001 AND CO002.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND MIDLEVEL CEILINGS PERSIST AT THIS HOUR BUT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AS WELL THOUGH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR KHDN, KEGE AND KASE. DESPITE THAT, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THESE SHOWERS BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN
AFTER 03Z.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
COZ001-002.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT TUESDAY
FOR UTZ024.
UPDATE...TGJT
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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