267
FXUS65 KGJT 141711
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1111 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SOME ISOLATED STORM CHANCES REMAIN FOR TODAY:
THE DOMINANT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS, IN TURN, WILL KEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
AROUND. HENCE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY, BUT STORMS HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR
AND DENSE CLOUD COVER FILLING IN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS COULD
VERY WELL BE THE CASE TODAY AS WELL. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING DEPICTS DENSER CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAN JUANS AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH, WITH CLEARING EVERYWHERE ELSE. THIS WILL HELP PAINT
A BETTER PICTURE FOR STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER STORM
CHANCES OCCURRING WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WAS ALLOWED TO MATERIALIZE.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINALLY INCREASED SHEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MILD JET STREAK TRAVERSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH, ENSEMBLES SHOW FALLING PWATS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, MOST STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL (OR THE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THAT COME
WITH IT) ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, IF DAYTIME HEATING DOMINATES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS, THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIALIZE OVER
THOSE AREAS AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT. ALL
VULNERABLE AREAS (INCLUDING BURN SCARS) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WILL
STILL BE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS TODAY IN SPITE OF
THE MORE LOCALIZED NATURE OF STORM COVERAGE.
WEEKEND + BEYOND OUTLOOK:
EVEN AS MOISTURE IS ON THE STEADY DECLINE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND. STORM
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE MILDER SIDE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS
WEAK. ALTHOUGH, KEEP CHECKING THE FORECAST AS CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE
WHEN IT COMES TO THESE PATTERNS.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, MORE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CONDITIONS IF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE NEARBY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
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