536
FXUS65 KGJT 272325
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, CAUSING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL, VALLEY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE:
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US UNPRECEDENTED MARCH HEAT
HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN BY 5-10 DEGREES.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS STILL MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO SET RECORD
HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE, WHICH WAS ALSO PUSHED SOUTH WILL
RETURN BACK TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. A
FEW SUBTLE WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS FLOW, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY, SO CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LOW. ONE OF
THOSE WAVES TRACKS OVER US ON SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE
FUELS ARE DRY. WINDS DECREASE ON SUNDAY, BUT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK:
ON MONDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH OF US, BUT MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MAY HAVE SOME
MODEST MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE AS WELL. THE MOISTURE COULD
BE SLOW TO REACH THE LOWER LEVELS, SO WE MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE INCOMING WAVE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT COMES TOGETHER LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHICH IS WHY WE SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE. ALSO,
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY. THE PATTERN AROUND MIDWEEK STILL APPEARS ACTIVE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM GIVE A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL START
SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CU CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUANS
WILL ALSO START DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY UP
NORTH. TOMORROW, GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DESPITE BORDERLINE RH VALUES ON SATURDAY THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED
TO A WARNING GIVEN THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD ALSO RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS
DECREASE FOR SUNDAY, BUT LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THE CONTINUED LOWER RH VALUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON
MONDAY LOOKS TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE WHILE KEEPING LOW
LEVELS DRY. ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON AND
COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ200-202.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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