961
FXUS65 KGJT 022334
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
534 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES TREND
10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
AND BEYOND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE PACNW.
- MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE SAN JUANS
AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK IN CONCERT WITH SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WORKING NORTH UP THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEEING NO WETTING RAINS
BENEATH THESE CLOUDS UNFORTUNATELY. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS
IN THE SAN JUANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPER LOW
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE
ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON
THURSDAY. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN CRITICAL, WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN ON THE MARGINAL SIDE, SO I HELD OFF ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. TRANSITORY RIDGING SUPPRESSES WINDS FRIDAY, WHILE WE
REMAIN HOT AND DRY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD VALUES
THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMANDS OUR ATTENTION THIS WEEKEND,
AS A MORE CONCRETE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGES. WINDS
INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS THE PACNW LOW DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UNFORTUNATELY, A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS IMPEDES ITS INLAND PROGRESS. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR US TO REMAIN IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ESTABLISH
RESIDENCY ON THE WEST SLOPE. IN FACT, DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REFUSE TO BUDGE FROM THIS REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY. JUNE HAS ARRIVED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z, THEN
TAPER OFF. IN MANY LOCATIONS, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN PATTERNS THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY 18Z. GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND KDRO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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