931
FXUS65 KGJT 252341
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.
- A MORE SEASONABLE, SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK
PUTTING AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. LEADING TO MORE
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
AMPLE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE
SEEING TODAY WITH CLEARER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. OUR
BIGGEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. IF FIRE STARTS OCCUR, FIRES WILL CATCH AND SPREAD
QUICKLY. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND
HEED LOCAL BURN BANS. PLEASE READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
BY SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN TRANSITING THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN SWINGING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH
UTAH. DURING THIS TIME, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WILL TIGHTEN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. 40-50 MPH
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AND UP TO 35
MPH IN MOST VALLEYS) ARE STILL THE EXPECTATION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED MARGINALLY WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST
UPDATE, BUT REMAIN BELOW 15% IN VALLEYS. WITH THIS, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
WITH THESE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THANKS TO RUN-TO-RUN
AGREEMENT IN THE NBM, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON
THE FIRE RISK AS THIS DRY AND WINDY PATTERN PERSISTS.
RELIEF FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS QUICKLY SETTLES IN ON
MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER RH (NEAR 15%) MAY CONTINUE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ASIDE FROM THIS, INCREASED MOISTURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN, AND WINDS (ALBEIT
STILL UPWARDS OF 25 MPH GUSTS OVER SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS) WILL BE RELATIVELY CALMER. TO ADD TO THIS, A
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS UTAH LATE ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BOLSTERS OUR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS, BUT MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL PRESENT AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MOST RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE. FURTHER INTO THE MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA AMIDST AN ENSUING
WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD ASSIST IN PROLONGING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. THE TIMING ON WHEN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE DOWN REMAINS UNCLEAR AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
LACK AGREEMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE TAF PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
GUSTS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING 25-35 MPH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS COMBINE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CAUSE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SINCE
GREEN UP HAS YET TO OCCUR FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 207,
292 AND 203 AND 205 BELOW 7000 FEET, FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED
CRITICAL IN THOSE AREAS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FOR THE AFORMENTIONED ZONES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM TOMORROW. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME ON SUNDAY. IT IS VERY LIKELY
THAT THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN A FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
IF FIRE STARTS OCCUR, FIRES WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND HEED LOCAL
BURN BANS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ203-205-
207-292.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-205-207-292.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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