025  
FXUS65 KGJT 042327  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
527 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION, AS A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT  
WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVER THE CWA, DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR  
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN  
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIPPLE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
PROPAGATES TO OUR EAST, AND THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST TRACKS SOUTH. EXPECT INCREASING MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM PLUMMETING  
SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFORMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL DICTATE OUR  
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING THE REGION SETTLED  
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER  
TOMORROW, BUMPING MOST OF THE CWA BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR  
THIS TIME IN THE SEASON.  
 
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SAG SOUTH,  
STRADDLING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, ANTICIPATE A DEEP  
LAYER OF MIXING TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS REACHING VALLEY FLOORS AS  
MOMENTUM IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH  
ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS, WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO WINDER  
LEVELS ALOFT MAY GUST OVER 40 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN WAVES  
FORMING ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE MAY ALSO ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS  
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE PLATEAU WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE  
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN (I.E. STRETCH ALONG HWY 50 FROM GRAND  
JUNCTION DOWN TO MONTROSE). IN ADDITION, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A  
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW COULD PRODUCE  
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION  
IS FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITAS IN NORTHEAST UTAH, ALTHOUGH  
VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS MAY RESULT IN VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS  
OVER THE UINTAH BASIN RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE  
GROUND. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY  
RELATIVELY DRY, WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH  
SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT, THANKS  
TO PASSING CLOUD COVER UNDER THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL ATTM WITH VERY  
LITTLE RESEMBLANCE OF IT WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN BY LATE IN THE  
WEEK. IT HAS ALSO MADE SOME HUGE SWINGS IN THE NORTHERN UPSTREAM  
FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NOAM. THE WHOLE OF THE ENSEMBLE  
SUITES AT LEAST FAVOR THE OP EURO HOLDING LOW PRESSURE BACK ACROSS  
THE SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE 4  
CORNERS UP TO NEAR 1-70 MAINLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A DIP IN  
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLUSHES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THAT SAID  
THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM IN A SW FLOW  
PATTERN ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE SOCAL COAST.  
BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS WELL MIXED SCENARIO AS  
HIGHS RUN SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T  
TREND SLOWER OR FARTHER SOUTH RAIN MOVES INTO SE UTAH EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SW COLORADO DURING THE  
DAYTIME. SNOW LEVELS AND ESPECIALLY ROAD ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE  
HIGH TO START WITH NO PROBABLE IMPACTS UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT  
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO  
SATURDAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT MODEL CONUNDRUM AND A STRONG DIP IN  
THE NORTHERN LATITUDE JET STREAM BRINGS A COLD OUTBREAK SOMEWHERE  
EAST OF WEST COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR AT LEAST  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, THOUGH MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE  
EXPECTED AT ALMOST ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST  
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KTS FORECAST AT GJT, EGE, AND CNY.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ERW  
LONG TERM...15  
AVIATION...SS  
 
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