823
FXUS65 KGJT 201943
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1243 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST MOUNTAIN
ZONES AND A FEW VALLEYS. TOTAL SNOW REMAINS IN THE 5 TO 10
INCH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 3 TO 6 FOR THE VALLEYS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED. A WARMUP KICKS IN SUNDAY ONWARDS.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA AS
SNOW CONTINUES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE I-70 CORRIDOR DID WELL AS AN H7 AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDED ADDED LIFT, ALONG WITH SOME PVA, CAUSING
PROLONGED SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. DID ADD I-70 ZONES TO THE
ADVISORIES FROM DEBEQUE CANYON EASTWARD AS TREACHEROUS
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON WEBCAMS. CURRENTLY, LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING, IF SUN MAKES IT THROUGH
THE CLOUDS, MAY ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID, ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SE UTAH IS DONE SO WILL CANCEL THE
ADVISORIES WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. WILL LEAVE REMAINING
ADVISORIES IN PLACE BUT EXPECT THEY'LL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED DOWN
EARLY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOOK FOR A BRISK START TO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME MORNING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, IN THE USUAL FAVORED
AREAS, THANKS TO ALL THE MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S SYSTEM GENERALLY
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR SOUTH. RIDGING BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
AFTER GETTING A TASTE OF SOME TRUE WINTER WEATHER OVER THE PAST
WEEK, THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RETURN US TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWER VALLEYS HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
STAYING NEAR-NORMAL AT LEAST, BUT ASIDE FROM THESE LOCATIONS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A HEAVILY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACNW EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH BEGINS TO
DESCEND SOUTHWARDS ON TUESDAY. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
SHIFTS THE OVER 140-KT JET STREAK TOWARDS OUR CWA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE JET STREAK WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS NOT CERTAIN YET WITH
THE GFS SIGNALING A MUCH MORE PROMINENT WEAKENING THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THOUGH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS RELATIVE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE QPF WITH GEFS CLUSTERS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
DRIER. THESE MODELS ARE FOCUSING IN ON GENERALLY OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHERE THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN JET STREAK
STRENGTH IS HAVING A MAJOR IMPACT ON FORECASTING THOUGH IS IN
WINDS. COMPARING THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS SHOWS SURFACE GUST
FORECASTS VARYING BY AS MUCH AS 25 MPH DURING MID-WEEK
AFTERNOONS. THAT'S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BEGIN SPECULATING HOW
IMPACTFUL WINDS COULD BECOME AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
ULTIMATELY, TRYING TO QUANTIFY THE DETAILS OF STORM REMAINS TOO
MUCH OF A SHOT IN THE DARK RIGHT NOW, SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP
WATCHING HOW MODELS EVOLVE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO ARRIVE IN SOME CAPACITY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SNOW SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
ALL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SNOW CHANCES DROP OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR KDRO, KVEL,
AND KCNY WHEREAS ALL OTHER TERMINALS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE EVENING. WHERE SNOW DOES FALL, VIS WILL
DROP AT LEAST TO MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL (PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS)
COULD CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. ILS BREAKPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE MET AT ALL COLORADO TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION, GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL TERMINALS (EXCEPT FOR KVEL). SKIES CLEAR UP AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RESTORED TOMORROW MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ003-004-007>009-012-013-017-019-021>023.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ025.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page