408  
FXUS65 KGJT 132335  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
535 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THE SEVEN-  
DAY FORECAST.  
 
- OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING REMAIN A THREAT TOMORROW AS  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN COLORADO  
TERRAIN.  
 
- COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY  
INCREASE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROMOTE HOT  
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.  
TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF  
TODAY'S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S (MOUNTAINS)  
AND 60S (VALLEYS). THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS REMAINS  
ELEVATED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED  
AND TAKE SUFFICIENT SHADE BREAKS IF YOU ARE WORKING OR  
RECREATING OUTSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE  
DIVIDE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
TO INCREASE OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND  
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THE  
PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE WAVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WITH WYOMING  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALSO PRODUCE A DRY LIGHTNING  
THREAT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS,  
WITH INCREASED POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS VARY EACH DAY AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION  
ELEVATES PWAT ANOMALIES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF OUR CWA.  
UNSURPRISINGLY, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TEND TO  
BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ON TUESDAY PWATS ARE NEAR OR BELOW  
NORMAL, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN,  
INCLUDING DRY THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE AS SOME MOISTURE MAKES  
ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70. HOWEVER, AT  
THIS POINT IN TIME ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TIMING,  
PLACEMENT, AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE ECMWF ENS  
FAVORS STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION LATER THIS WEEK THAN THE GFS  
ENS, WHICH PUTS MAXIMUM PWAT ANOMALIES AT ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL  
AND AROUND 130% OF NORMAL, RESPECTIVELY. SO, THERE IS A CHANCE  
FOR A PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK, BUT DIFFERENCES  
IN THE GUIDANCE LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF  
THE LONG TERM, BUT SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING TOWARDS NORMAL AS A  
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROPAGATES EASTWARD. DESPITE  
DRY WEATHER, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE  
LOCALIZED AT TIMES AS WINDS GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER THRESHOLDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL AREAS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH RECORDED AT KDRO. THAT  
THREAT SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED AT THAT AIRFIELD FOR THE EVENING BUT  
GUSTS FROM STORM OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT STRONGER SOUTHEAST FLOW AT KMTJ  
TO KGJT THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORM DISSIPATE. CONFIDENCE  
NOT HIGH BUT THIS NOT OUT OF QUESTION EITHER. OTHERWISE  
DOWNVALLEY WINDS DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND LIGHTEN  
AFTER SUNRISE THEN WE DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A  
SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES  
WILL PRESENT BUT ATTM DID NOT PLACE A RESTRICTION TO VSBY IN THE  
FORECAST.  
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KAA  
LONG TERM...GF  
AVIATION...TGJT  
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