654  
FXUS65 KGJT 281127  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
527 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES  
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WILL KEEP THINGS BRISK TODAY.  
 
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO OUR LOW VALLEYS WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SPOTS WITHOUT  
HARD FREEZES YET.  
 
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND THANKS TO  
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRAY CLOUDS TRAPPED ALONG THE  
DIVIDE, HAVE TAKEN OVER. SLACK WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED  
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN DROPPING AROUND THE REGION. A FEW SPOTS IN  
OUR FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY JUST DIP A TOE BELOW 32, SO WENT  
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR GRAND VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST  
COLORADO FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCALES THAT HAVEN'T HAD A  
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO  
RECOVER THANKS TO THE COLD POOL IN PLACE. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. SUNNY SKIES WILL  
HELP A LITTLE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN BREEZY  
CONDITIONS TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STING A BIT TOO.  
 
TONIGHT, THE BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START PUSHING THE COLDER  
AIR AND THE NORTHERLY JET STREAK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE  
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS NUDGE  
UP AROUND 5 DEGREES. WINDS RETURN TO SLACK CONDITIONS UNDER THE HIGH  
TOO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN  
AFTERNOON TO SAVOR AHEAD OF TIME CHANGE THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, BEFORE SLIDING DOWN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR  
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, THE ONLY IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE IS  
TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SHIFT FLOW ALOFT FIRST  
TO WESTERLY AND THEN TO NORTHWESTERLY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS  
RIDGING MORE FIRMLY ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL SIT  
NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT  
SYSTEM OF ANY NOTE WILL BE A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLAMMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRYING TO WORK THIS AR  
MOISTURE INLAND, WITH FORECAST PWATS OF 130-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO WHAT GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING  
YESTERDAY, AS BOTH THE GEFS AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THE CORE  
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS  
THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN JUST AS INSISTENT THAT THIS MOISTURE  
WON'T BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING. IF ANYTHING, ALL THE  
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEP EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN  
COLORADO UNDER RIDGING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS FORECAST FOR  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE DOES VERIFY, WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING  
CLOUDINESS FOR THE WEEKEND, MAYBE AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN  
SHOWER OR TWO. BUT OTHERWISE, WE REMAIN UNDER GENERALLY QUIET  
CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER AND TERRAIN  
DRIVEN. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS  
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT KHDN,  
BUT TOOK THE TEMPO GROUP OUT, AS THE PROBABILITY WASN'T HIGH  
ENOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-007-011-  
021-022.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  
COZ006-021-022.  
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ024.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...LTB  
LONG TERM...BGB  
AVIATION...TGJT  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab UT Page
Main Text Page