206
FXUS65 KGJT 161738
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVE AHEAD OF
A POTENT COLD FRONT.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND
30-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- A WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY SENDING PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. THE GRAND JUNCTION SOUNDING HAD
THE WHOLE COLUMN IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION(WAA) ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN SOME STRONG GUSTS TOO. VALLEYS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 30 TO 40 MPH, WITH A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS MIXED IN ON FAVORED ASPECTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
TAKE A HIT FROM THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, THANKS
TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, WAA WILL BE ON THE SIDE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE DIGGING DUE SOUTH DOWN THE PACNW COASTLINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO CRANK UP THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. A 180KT JET MAX FORMS FROM SOCAL UP ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR
A WINTER STORM WE'VE NOT SEEN THIS YEAR. SNOW SHOWERS KICK OFF
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ALONG THE JET MAX WILL MAKE
QUICK WORK OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL MOUNTAIN GROUPS, WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF A FOOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, WHERE A LACK OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW KEPT THEM OUT OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN TRAVEL IS NOT ENCOURAGED,
GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. THE JET MAX SETTLES
SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAKES SOME OF THE FORCING OUT OF
THE EQUATION, ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME. ENOUGH MOISTURE STICKS
AROUND FOR LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
BUT RATES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. WIND ADVISORIES WILL DROP OFF
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRAVEL
HEADACHES WILL CONTINUE ON MOUNTAIN ROADS DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOW PACKED ROADS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RATES, SNOWFALL RATES RAMP BACK UP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. JET DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG WITH A 150 KT JET STREAK
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE BECOMING ELEVATED SO PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND FAVORED OROGRAPHICS.
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN STRONG WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AND WE COULD
STILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN OUR MORE WIND
PRONE VALLEYS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST COLORADO SO
ADDITIONAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED. SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE FROM TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT SO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY
ACTIVE DAY. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP THOUGH
WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH H7 TEMPS LOWERING DEEP INTO THE
DENDRITIC REGIME (-10C TO -16C) SO THE SNOW RATIOS WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW (12:1) TO AN EFFICIENT FLUFFY POWDER (15-18:1
RATIOS). PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIXED BAG IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO
ALL VALLEY FLOORS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE RATES BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION,
HOWEVER SNOW MAY NOT QUIT COMPLETELY IN SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORED OROGRAPHICS MAY KEEP SNOW ONGOING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME
HIGHER VALLEYS, BUT AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS STATED, THE LOWER
VALLEYS COULD SEE WET ROADS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL, MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ON TRACK.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHETHER ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT BE NEEDED GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT AND ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER LULL IN SNOWFALL RATES BUT LIGHT
OROGRAPHICS WILL STILL CONTINUE AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WE AREN'T
QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS YET THOUGH AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM THE PACNW AND SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER UPTICK IN
SNOWFALL FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY
SOUTHERN VALLEYS AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS IS THE THIRD AND
FINAL SHORTWAVE AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH SO DON'T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
DETAILS YET. SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER. AFTER THIS FINAL SHORTWAVE
EXITS, IT DOES APPEAR LIKE CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS THOUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING
BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
STRONG GUSTS, LOW CIGS, AND REDUCED VIS FROM SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS OF
25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS BEING
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AT KVEL
AND KCNY TONIGHT NEAR MIDNIGHT BEFORE STORMS PASS OVER ALL
COLORADO TERMINALS THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS
STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD, LOOKS FOR CIGS TO FALL BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REDUCE VIS AT ALL TERMINALS TO
MVFR/IFR, AND KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX, AND KGUC MAY POTENTIALLY
REACH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS STRONGER SNOW BANDS PASS THROUGH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ003-005-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ023-025-028.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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