978
FXUS65 KGJT 011058
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN,
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND SW COLORADO VALLEYS UNTIL 9
AM IN THE MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERALL
DRIER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THAT ARE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY ARE SNOW SHOWERS ON VAIL AND MONARCH PASSES PRODUCING
ENOUGH ACCUMULATION FOR SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST ONTO
THE FRONT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL START UP AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL INITIATE ACROSS MOSTLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION, BUT A FEW INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. EASTERN UTAH AND
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A
RIDGE STARTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE AS IT
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK:
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING IN THE VALLEYS AND DIURNAL HEATING. ALL
OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, WITH LIGHT WINDS. MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAR
OUT, AND MODELS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN MORE AND LESS TOTAL PRECIP FROM
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE TREND IS FOR PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS FOR
EASTERN UTAH AND THE FAR WESTERN COLORADO WITH MORE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THOUGH THE AMOUNTS
HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST COUPLE MODEL RUNS, THERE
IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF THE LOW PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES INLAND WHICH
COULD BRING MORE WELCOMED RAIN. STAY TUNED ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GET A BETTER CHANCE TO LOOK AT
THIS SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID, IN LIEU OF THIS SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH IFR ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH MID MORNING. MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEATING OF THE DAY AND A
PASSING SYSTEM ALOFT WORK TOGETHER. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS PATTERN THE TYPICAL
UPVALLEY FLOW WILL BE OVERWRITTEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAKING
FOR SOME NON- TYPICAL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-002-008-
021>023.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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