778  
FXUS65 KGJT 290140  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
740 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TODAY, WITH  
ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
- THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY  
FOR BURN SCARS AND FLOOD PRONE LOCALES WITH SATURATED SOILS  
FROM RECENT RAINS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY, BUT RETURN COOLER  
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
- A FINAL PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ONGOING, PRIMARILY  
NORTH OF I-70 WHERE CAPE IS THE GREATEST. RAINFALL ESTIMATES  
AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TODAY'S STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WITH TODAY'S STORMS ARE HAIL AND GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS. CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENDING  
BY SUNSET. TOMORROW ONE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS  
THE REGION FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE  
PACIFIC. PWATS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
MOISTURE PUSH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND  
MORE STRATIFORM LIKE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT MAY BE LIMITED BY  
THE MORNING'S CLOUD COVER IF IT DOES NOT CLEAR QUICK ENOUGH.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT TOMORROW, BEFORE CLIMBING  
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
ON SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING  
DRY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG  
THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ON  
SATURDAY THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SAN JUANS SO  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRY WITH  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PATTERN EARLY  
NEXT WEEK IS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US KEEPING US  
IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW, SO NOT MUCH ADVECTION. MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN  
MAY LINGER AROUND THE SAN JUANS, WHICH WILL KEEP DAILY AFTERNOON  
STORM CHANCES GOING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PERHAPS FILTERS IN MID TO  
LATE WEEK. THIS IS WHEN WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 736 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY  
SUNSET. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST TAF SITES SEEING MORE  
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 00Z SATURDAY  
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS  
UNTIL 12Z WITH MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY  
WITH SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS  
COULD ACCOMPANY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GF  
LONG TERM...KJS  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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