902
FXUS65 KGJT 271126
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THANKS
TO AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.
- SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE STRONGER
CELLS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
- WATCH OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN VULNERABLE
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN
SCARS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND AMPLE MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH MEANS THE
RUNNING FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SLOW STORM MOTIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
SO, AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN. THOSE AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AS WILL BURN
SCARS LIKE THE BABYLON, FERRIS AND GOLD MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TO ROUND IT
OUT, LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME SMALL HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE CAMS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTION TOMORROW AND TUESDAY BUT NOT SOLD ON THOSE SOLUTIONS,
HOWEVER, AS CAPE, INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA.
HIGHS REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS WITH 100S STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP, OBVIOUSLY, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AND WITHOUT MUCH RELIEF, THE GOING HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY AND LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND IF THIS SHOULD OCCUR, SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST. AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE
MAY BUILD IN TO OUR WEST. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WHICH WILL TEMPER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
BESIDES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH THERE
IS DECREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BLOSSOM AGAIN TODAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH THERE REMAIN A VERY SMALL
PROBABILITY OF MVFR IF A STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AIRFIELD.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
THESE RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS,
ESPECIALLY OVER STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS. SATURATED
SOILS FROM CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
AS A REMINDER: KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FORECASTS AND STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATED HYDROLOGY ALERTS IF VISITING OR IF YOU RESIDE NEAR
TERRAIN VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. DRY
CREEKS AND ARROYOS CAN FILL QUICKLY AND WITHOUT WARNING FROM
STORMS MILES AWAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ001-006.
UT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.
DISCUSSION...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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