654
FXUS65 KGJT 281127
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WILL KEEP THINGS BRISK TODAY.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO OUR LOW VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SPOTS WITHOUT
HARD FREEZES YET.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR A FEW STRAY CLOUDS TRAPPED ALONG THE
DIVIDE, HAVE TAKEN OVER. SLACK WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN DROPPING AROUND THE REGION. A FEW SPOTS IN
OUR FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY JUST DIP A TOE BELOW 32, SO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR GRAND VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCALES THAT HAVEN'T HAD A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER THANKS TO THE COLD POOL IN PLACE. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. SUNNY SKIES WILL
HELP A LITTLE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STING A BIT TOO.
TONIGHT, THE BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST WILL START PUSHING THE COLDER
AIR AND THE NORTHERLY JET STREAK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS NUDGE
UP AROUND 5 DEGREES. WINDS RETURN TO SLACK CONDITIONS UNDER THE HIGH
TOO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN
AFTERNOON TO SAVOR AHEAD OF TIME CHANGE THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, BEFORE SLIDING DOWN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, THE ONLY IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE IS
TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SHIFT FLOW ALOFT FIRST
TO WESTERLY AND THEN TO NORTHWESTERLY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING MORE FIRMLY ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL SIT
NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF ANY NOTE WILL BE A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLAMMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRYING TO WORK THIS AR
MOISTURE INLAND, WITH FORECAST PWATS OF 130-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO WHAT GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING
YESTERDAY, AS BOTH THE GEFS AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THE CORE
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS
THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN JUST AS INSISTENT THAT THIS MOISTURE
WON'T BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING. IF ANYTHING, ALL THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEP EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO UNDER RIDGING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS FORECAST FOR
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE DOES VERIFY, WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FOR THE WEEKEND, MAYBE AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN
SHOWER OR TWO. BUT OTHERWISE, WE REMAIN UNDER GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT KHDN,
BUT TOOK THE TEMPO GROUP OUT, AS THE PROBABILITY WASN'T HIGH
ENOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-007-011-
021-022.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ006-021-022.
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ024.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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