624
FXUS65 KGJT 160412
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1012 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ROADWAYS MAY
BECOME TEMPORARILY SNOW COVERED THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE PARK
RANGE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS WEEK'S FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
OUR CLIPPER FROM YESTERDAY HAS PHASED WITH POLAR VORTEX AND IS
CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AN
ANOMALOUS UPSTREAM RIDGE IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
LEAVES DEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THEN REMAINS
STATIC THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES
THE THE BULK OF THE LOWER 48 AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. FIRST HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER JET DROPPING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW WHICH WILL PULL ALONG PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM A MODERATE
AR HITTING THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WEST COAST. DIFFUSE
ASCENT FROM THIS JET AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...OROGRAPHICS AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NEAR SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
BEFORE WAA UNDER THE RIDGE STABILIZES THINGS. THIS WILL BE
UPSIDE-DOWN SNOW WITH HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS/20:1 TO BEGIN
THE EVENT...DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY MORNING TO 9:1 AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. OVERALL DO NOT SEE HUGE IMPACTS FROM
THIS WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS HOWEVER
RABBIT EARS PASS MAY BECOME TEMPORARILY SNOW COVERED AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THIS THE FORECAST TURNS HOT AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THEN BY MID TO
LATE WEEK THIS BECOMES 20 TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORD-SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING WILL BE INVADED BY A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH ILS CONDITIONS OVER KASE TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GJT
AVIATION...GJT
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