945
FXUS65 KGJT 012335
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH A DIMINISHING FLASH FLOODING RISK.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
- A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT THEIR
INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER THIS WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
PACNW WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE A BLOCKING RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS IS ALL EVOLVING BENEATH A
JET STREAK THAT STRETCHES FROM BAJA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ONTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. WHILE NEW MOISTURE REMAINS ABSENT FROM THE
EQUATION, REMNANT SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL GET
REWORKED TODAY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY, TO PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
SUSTAIN STRONG SHOWERS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, SUBJECT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED JET BEGINS TO NOSE
INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS
COULD GET A LEASE ON LIFE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORING
AREAS NORTH OF I-70. WHILE MODELS REMAIN AMBIVALENT TO OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DRIER AIR APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME
REMNANT MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG JET STREAK WILL GET ANOTHER
CHANCE TO QUEUE UP SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS FAST, THUS REDUCING THE
FLASH FLOODING RISK WEDNESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN A
THREAT. THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS, BUT
EVERYWHERE WILL FEEL BREEZIER...PERHAPS ANOTHER HINT OF
AUTUMN'S ARRIVAL. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE THURSDAY AND
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER THURSDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND
THE DEEPENING PACNW CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS WESTWARD, MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER MONSOONAL FETCH
DEVELOPING, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SOME RICHER TROPICAL STORM
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SEND SOME HEAVY SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS TIME OF YEAR, WEEKEND TREKKERS
THAT ARE VENTURING INTO THE SLOT CANYONS AND ONTO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE FORECAST, GIVEN THE INCREASED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ATTEMPT TO EJECT THE LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE A WET LABOR DAY
FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A DEVELOPING FORECAST
AND WILL COMMAND SOME ATTENTION AS IT EVOLVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ONLY IMPACTING A FEW TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS OVER A FEW
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR. DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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