824
FXUS65 KPUB 291724
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2021
...CONTINUED HOT AND DRY ON THE PLAINS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE MTNS...
CURRENTLY...
AT 3 AM, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTDVD WESTWARD. WATER
VAPOR CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLUME FROM ROUGHLY THE CONTDVD
WESTWARD INTO UTAH.
TEMPS WERE RATHER WARM OVER THE REGION, AS AMBIENT TEMPS WERE NEAR
80 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS FROM KLHX EASTWARD. 60S AND 70S
WERE NOTE OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WERE IN THE 50S AND
60S.
TODAY...
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE MONSOON PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE CONTDVD
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEATHER TODAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITH DEEP, GENERALLY SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN, ANY STORMS TODAY WILL TYPICALLY MOVE TO THE NW. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED ON THE PLAINS WITH ONLY ISOLD
STORMS ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN
JUANS.
I DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN ENHANCED FLOOD THREAT FOR THE BURN SCARS
TODAY. ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. EVEN IF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR, THE STORMS WILL MOVE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY OFF TO THE NW. I DO NOT EXPECT TRAINING STORMS
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR OVER A GOOD PART OF THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 100F TO LOWER 100S
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM KPUB EAST TO THE KS BORDER; 90S
REST OF THE PLAINS. 80S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60S AND 70S
MTNS.
TONIGHT...
BESIDES SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CONTDVD, IT WILL BE DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S PLAINS WITH 50S VALLEYS;
40S MTNS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2021
KEY MESSAGES...
1) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH QUESTIONS ON
TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
2) INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BUILDING BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION BECOMING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODELS ALSO INDICATE EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY, WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
DIG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUING TO
BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF (FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON). TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND STABILITY/PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH THE LATEST NAM KEEPING MUCH OF
THE PLAINS TOO STABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THAT SAID, WILL SEE
ONE MORE DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY, I HAVE STARTED TO BLEND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE SOLUTION ACROSS THE PLAINS, KEEPING THE BEST POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS
CLOSER TO REALITY, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND
COMBINED WITH STRONG SUMMER SOLAR HEATING, SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREA BURN SCARS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS, COOLEST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN, WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING GENERALLY
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2021
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VCTS AT KALS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...THOUGH ODDS
SEEM TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT INTO A PREVAILING GROUP.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
ACTIVITY STAYING OFF TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
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