649
FXUS65 KPUB 110502
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLAINS REMAIN WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN
POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER ARRIVES IN THE REGION BY MIDWEEK,
THOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PICKS UP QUICKLY AFTER WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND IN THE
60S-70S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ONGOING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES, WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL TOO HIGH FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREAS, BUT LOOKING AT RAIN TOTALS WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TO GET THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM, WITH 50S-60S OUT EAST AND 40S OVER THE
VALLEYS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT MOVING INTO SUNDAY. THE
EASTERN PLAINS WON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE, WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (MID-HIGH 80S TO AROUND 90), AND DRY CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN RECEIVING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
DEEPENS, INCREASING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
INTERESTINGLY, SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS DO PLACE A LOW-
END CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
SMALL HAIL
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
HOW THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AT THE BROAD TRENDS, TWO LOWS, ONE MOVING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NW,
AND ONE COMING UP FROM THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO, WILL INTERACT AND
POSSIBLE COMBINE. THIS WILL GIVE US A QUICKLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW,
STRONG TROUGH, AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, WHICH WILL
BRING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM ONGOING AND DECAYING HURRICANE
ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC.
MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST QUOTE-UNQUOTE "TRANSITION DAY", MEANING THAT
THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY, WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CONTINUES TO SEE INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS BUT OVER THE REST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WELL.
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NEVADA
AND TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN COLDER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FRONT MOVING IN OVER OUR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW, THOUGH THE SAN JUANS MAY TRANSITION A
TAD EARLIER, DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT. AS OF
NOW, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PEAKS STILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO
WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS, BUT A QUICK FEW INCHES AND SOME TRAVEL
HAZARDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE, TUES-WEDS, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY COOL OFF, WITH
MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE, SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AFTER ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
GREATLY DIVERGE ON THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IMMEDIATELY EJECTS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS
STALL IT OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS, EVEN RETROGRADING IT WEST BENEATH A
BROAD BLOCKING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
BASICALLY OPPOSITE OF ONE ANOTHER, SO MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
GIVE A WASHED-OUT 'MIDDLE OF THE ROAD' SOLUTION, WHICH ISN'T A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER AND MUCH WETTER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR DECENTLY WELL AGREED UPON IN THE DATA.
THAT BEING SAID, THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, NAMELY THE DURATION
AND DEPARTURE OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, REMAINS INCONSISTENT, AND
MORE DETAILS NEED TO BE SURED UP IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR KCOS
AND KPUB, HOWEVER FOR KALS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED WITH A PROB30 FROM 1600-2000 TOMORROW EVENING. IF ANY OF
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER KALS, MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORM
CHANCES, GUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR KALS AND KCOS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SKELLY
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