786  
FXUS65 KPUB 042124  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
324 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW
 
 
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE  
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH WEAK EMBEDDED  
ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS WEAK ENERGY HAS PRODUCED PERIODIC SNOW  
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS. VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF  
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE 50S FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GETTING TO  
AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT,  
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BEGINNING  
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT SAID, THE WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY IS  
ANTICIPATED TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS  
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS  
ANTICIPATED. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS  
 
TOMORROW...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY AROUND MIDDAY, BRINGING ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EVEN DRIER AIR, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.  
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SAN  
LUIS VALLEY, SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THEREFORE, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED  
FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM. LOCATIONS FROM  
AROUND PUEBLO NORTH ARE ANTICIPATED TO TAKE LONGER TO MIX OUT THAN  
THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHICH MEANS THESE AREAS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A  
RESULT, HAVE DECIDED TO FREMONT AND SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES OUT OF  
THE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY  
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN THESE AREAS, BUT JUST NOT  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE WARNING. USE EXTREME  
CAUTION WITH ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE TOMORROW,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH  
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW  
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION  
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 60S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN ON MONDAY, WITH TROUGH/UPPER  
LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  
LEE SURFACE TROUGH AGAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MON  
AFTERNOON, AND WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY  
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. DEWPOINTS REALLY TANK BY  
AFTERNOON, WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS AND RH ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-25. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,  
FREMONT COUNTY, THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS ZONES  
ALONG THE NM BORDER FOR MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL HOLD  
OFF ON ADDING AREAS FARTHER NORTH, AS SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS  
ALOFT WEAKEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. MAX TEMPS WILL  
SOAR WITH MIXING AND MID LEVEL WARMING, AND A FEW NEAR 80F  
READINGS LOOK LIKELY ON THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SLIGHTLY  
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUE AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST, THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND MID-  
LEVEL TEMPS CHANGING LITTLE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM/BREEZY AND DRY  
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER  
HIGHLIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO  
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY VERSUS MON, WHICH MAY LESSEN THE THREAT. MAX  
TEMPS AGAIN SOME 10F-15F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE FATE AND ULTIMATE  
EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW, AS 12Z GFS  
REMAINS ON THE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,  
WHILE 12Z ECMWF IS NEARLY TWO DAYS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. IN  
MOST SOLUTIONS, NRN STREAM WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH  
THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU, LEADING TO MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS  
INTO THU, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST  
OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME  
PRECIP TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED NIGHT/THU, WITH  
FASTER GFS THEN PUSHING A WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS  
OF THE REGION THU MORNING. GFS SNOW LEVEL FALLS BELOW 6K FEET THU  
MORNING, WHILE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. SLOWER EURO IS MUCH  
SLOWER AND LIGHTER WITH IT'S PRECIP THU, KEEPING THE BULK OF THE  
DYNAMICS SOUTH, WHILE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. CURRENT  
FORECAST HAS A BROADBRUSH OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU/FRI, WHICH  
IS GOOD FOR A FIRST GUESS, BUT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS THE  
EVENT MOVES CLOSER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES (KALS, KCOS, KPUB)  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KALS THIS  
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WHILE WINDS AT KCOS  
AND KPUB ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ224-228>233-  
235-237.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR COZ222-224-228>230-233-237.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CARLBERG  
LONG TERM...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...CARLBERG  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page Main Text Page