960  
FXUS65 KPUB 092037  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
237 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- BREEZY AND VERY WARM MONDAY, WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER AT  
MANY LOCATIONS.  
 
- AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
- WARM AND WINDY THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT  
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO  
TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL  
AVERAGES AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN, WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS  
THE PLAINS BY EARLY MON MORNING. PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TOWARD  
INCREASING WINDS AND MILDER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS, ESPECIALLY IN  
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. ON MONDAY, RIDGE  
CONTINUES TO FLATTEN/LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES  
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 7H,  
AND 40-50 KTS AT 5H, WITH DEEP MIXING LEADING TO INCREASING  
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE EXTREME WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY  
GIVEN MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW, MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT  
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE  
FOR SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM  
SALIDA EASTWARD THROUGH FREMONT COUNTY TO PUEBLO, THEN ACROSS  
THE PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. AIR MASS LOOKS VERY WARM  
AND DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS AND HIGHS IN  
THE 60S MANY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS/70-NR 80 PLAINS LEADING TO  
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT/LOWER TEENS RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY MID-  
AFTERNOON. WILL CONVERT CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG  
WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE, THOUGH WON'T EXPAND IT TO  
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PLAINS YET, AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS  
MAY COME UP JUST SHORT OF THE 25 KT THRESHOLD SOUTH OF THE  
LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO FIRE  
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL, THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS  
HUMIDITY JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ISSUANCE  
HERE FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,  
BRINGING LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD, TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH  
PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD  
OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE  
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE  
CONTDVD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MTNS WHERE LATEST DESI  
DATA INDICATES 75-95% PROBABILITIES OF >6 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY  
MORNING AND 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF >10 INCHES. BREEZY TO  
WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO BRING  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  
 
WHERE THE SYSTEM GOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND FRIDAY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION, HOWEVER LATEST MODEL DATA  
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO QUICKLY AND DEVELOPS A MID LEVEL  
CYCLONE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION TOO FAR EAST TO BRING THE HIGHEST  
IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND WIND TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. TIME WILL TELL.  
 
AT ANY RATE, GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS THE QUICKEST AND FURTHEST  
NORTH AND EAST WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY  
MORNING, WHERE AS THE LATEST EPS AND GEFS DATA REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH,  
THOUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ALL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY LIFTING  
THE CYCLONE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT  
INDICATING A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL  
LIKELY SEE RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SPREADING ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM  
WRAPS UP FURTHER EAST BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE REGION  
LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOCATION, TIMING, AND TEMPERATURE  
PROFILES STILL NEED TO DETERMINED TO SEE WHERE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS  
FROM SNOW VS RAIN AND WIND WILL BE ACROSS REGION, HOWEVER LATEST  
DESI DATA INDICATES 50-70 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF >1 INCH OF SNOW  
FRIDAY ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK/PALMER DVD REGION AND THE SE MTNS, WHICH  
QUICKLY DIMINISHES TO 15-30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF >3 INCHES OF  
SNOW. AGAIN, TIME WILL TELL ON HOW THIS STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES, AND  
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER THIS WEEK  
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH  
IMPACT STORM SYSTEM.  
 
FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND, MODEL DATA SUPPORTS PASSING DISTURBANCES  
WITHIN MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH DIURNAL WIND CYCLE  
UNDER 12 KTS CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>222-  
227>229-231-234.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN  
LONG TERM...SIMCOE  
AVIATION...  
 
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