053
FXUS65 KPUB 070505
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES CAUGHT WITHIN WEAK FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW OVER CA AND THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 100-150+
PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT
WHICH BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RISK WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH MORE SUN OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY AID IN INCREASING INITIAL UPDRAFT
STRENGTHS AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES. STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN
WEAK SO IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE BURN SCARS, CHALK CLIFFS OR
PONCHA PASS, THEN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS BOTH DAYS THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEARS SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTHS. HOWEVER, MEAN CAPE
VALUES WILL BE PUSHING 750-1000 J/KG WITH A LITTLE HIGHER VALUES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEFLY
STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
DURING THE INITIAL UPDRAFT GROWTH PHASE. -KT
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
LONG TERM AFD:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER BURN SCAR AREAS.
2) ON THURSDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
THEN MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
3) ON FRIDAY, PM THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH A
FEW MOVING OVER THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE
EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE.
4) SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH LESS
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT A HIGHER CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
BURN SCAR AREAS.
5) TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE LATE WEEK, THEN A COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DETAILED DISCUSSION:
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY DISCOMBOBULATED
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVEL AND OVERALL WEAK
SHEER AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
DEATH VALLEY AREA IN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY CONVECTION THAT
HAD INITIATED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND COULD CAUSE CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BURN SCAR AREAS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE HIGHEST AREAS OF CAPE LOOK TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE RATON MESA AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG,
AS WELL AS MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM, THEREFORE
A STRONGER STORM MAY OCCUR OVER THIS AREA AND COULD THREATEN THE
SPRING BURN SCAR IF IT DOES. AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE GOING INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO SHOWERS THAT MAY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS, NAMELY BACA COUNTY.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE
PLAINS, AND GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH COUNTRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FILL AS IT
DOES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION TO BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING TO BE MORE SPARSE IN NATURE. AT THIS TIME, A CONSENSUS OF
THE CAMS PEG THE PIKES PEAK/RAMPART RANGE AREA, AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES AGAIN AS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, DUE TO THERE BEING BETTER CAPE OVER THESE AREAS ONCE
AGAIN. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS, SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY OUT OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A FEW CONTINUING OVER INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A STRONGER OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT BETTER UPDRAFTS OVER THIS AREA.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN TERMS OF LESS COVERAGE OF PM
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE MID-LEVELS
STILL TEND TO BE MORE DRY SLOTTED. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES,
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. GIVEN THE HIGHER AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND DEWPOINTS WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAKING IT BACK INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
ALSO WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM FOR BOTH DAYS, AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SOME COOLER AIR ADVECTION TO MOVE IN OVER COLORADO DURING THE
WEEKEND. WITH THIS, THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE
TROUGHING WITH AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
COOLER AIR ADVECTION, DROPPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE
STABLE SO THERE WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LESS SHEAR OVER THE
REGION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HIGHER RISK FOR NEARLY STATIONARY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR BURN
SCAR AREAS, AND POSSIBLY URBANIZED AREAS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PWAT DOES
SHOW HIGHER VALUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO, YET
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND/OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE COULD BRING THESE HIGHER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR CWA.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO REVEAL RECYCLED MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE WITH FLATTENING OF THE TROUGH AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
AND ALSO A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT BACK NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. -STEWEY
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
KALS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 08Z. THIS HAS SENT
WESTERLY OUTFLOW ACROSS THE TERMINAL, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z. REDUCED CIGS AND VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ANY
SHOWERS IMPACT THE TERMINAL. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AND MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE,
REDUCING CIGS AND VIS WITH ANY CORE THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL.
MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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