552
FXUS65 KPUB 240716
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1216 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WITH SOME 80F READINGS ON THE PLAINS TODAY.
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY A GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS AND FREMONT
COUNTY.
- WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
PLAINS AND SOME WIND DRIVEN SNOW CENTRAL MTNS
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU, FRI AND SAT.
- A BIT COOLER WEATHER SUN INTO NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 454 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR INCLUSION OF FREMONT
COUNTY, FIRE ZONE 222, IN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW FROM
10 AM UNTIL 6 PM. MOORE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
TODAY...
MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE, WITH RH
VALUES IN THE 8 TO 15% RANGE. IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH
READINGS MAINLY 75 TO 80F RANGE MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH 60S IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. IT IS GOING TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY ALL LOCATIONS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION AND THE LEE TROUGH INTENSIFYING OVER THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. IT WILL BE MILD TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE MTNS AND OVER THE RATON MESA WITH
LOWS ONLY N THE 40S. 20S WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 20S WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON THIS DAY AS
THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT. WINDS IN THE MTNS WILL BE
GUSTING IN TH 40 TO 70 MPH RANGE OVER MOST MTN RANGES WITH 30S T0
40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 25 TO 35 MPH ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE REGION,
AND THIS WILL KEEP DWPTS UP IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THIS
IN TURN WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE,
AND THESE VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. FOR
NOW, DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE OF THIS DAY
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT THE
NEWER HI RES GUIDANCE.
WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS NOR OF COTTONWOOD
PASS. GIVEN THE SNOW AND WIND, DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL MTN REGION.
WE MAY SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PLAINS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A TAD COOLER THURSDAY THAN WARMING UP AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE DRY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GAP FLOW REGIONS ALONG
THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
COOLING OFF A BIT IN THE DIGITAL DATABASE, HOWEVER, DESI IS STILL
SHOWING SOME EXTREME MAX TEMPERATURE RANGES ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
MAX TEMP 5TH PERCENTILE SHOWING 40S WHILE THE 95TH PERCENTILE
AROUND 90F(!). LIKEWISE, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE GUIDANCE FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND. IF THE COOLER AIR COMES IN
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING TOMORROW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ058-060.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ222-227>233-237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ227>230-232-233.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH/MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
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