234
FXUS65 KPUB 122310
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
510 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN STORM THREATS
- DRIER WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING BACK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, THEN HEAT AND INCREASING FIRE DANGER
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
- STRONGER COLD FRONT AND AN UPTURN IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN STORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MAY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY, KNOCKING
JUST A COUPLE DEGF OFF OF HIGH TEMPS WHILE BRINGING BACK SOME
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STARTING TO SEE SOME MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AT MID-AFTERNOON WHERE MINOR INSTABILITY (CAPE 100-300
J/KG) HAS DEVELOPED, AND WON'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
WINDY SPRINKLES/VIRGA OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE ANY
ACTIVITY QUICKLY ENDS TOWARD SUNSET. CLEAR AND COOL OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY, BEFORE S-SE FLOW INCREASES ON THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND SUNRISE. ON WEDNESDAY,
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH WEAK S/W TROUGH AND
POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS CO DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED BY RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS. MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS WED WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH GIVEN EXPECTED HIGH
STORM BASES AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, WITH OCCASIONAL
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING POTENTIALLY STARTING FIRES A CONCERN
AS WELL. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS ON THE PLAINS WHERE CAPE IS
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, THOUGH SOUNDINGS HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF
CIN, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT MOST STORM ACTIVITY. WITH BETTER
MIXING AND A SMALL RISE IN MID-LEVEL TEMPS, EXPECT MAXES TO
CLIMB A FEW DEGF, WITH SOME 90F READINGS ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER/SPRINKLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WED NIGHT, THEN DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE. WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL
INCREASE TO ELEVATED LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY THU
AFTERNOON, MID LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, SUGGESTING
CRITICAL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND SPOTTY, AND THUS
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT HAS BEEN ISSUED YET. AREAS TO WATCH
FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER/POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD BE
MAINLY THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTIES, WHERE
GAP FLOW MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GET A
DOWNSLOPE BOOST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH READINGS
DEEP INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. BY LATE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A FEW MODELS SHOW WEAK COLD FRONT
ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS, WITH WINDS TURNING
ELY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING BEHIND IT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE, THOUGH
MODELS IN GENERAL ARE RATHER SPARSE WITH THEIR CONVECTION, SO
WILL ONLY THROW IN A VERY NARROW SLIVER OF POPS ALONG THE DIVIDE
FOR NOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY ON FRI, AND WHILE A FEW
DETERMINISTIC MODELS PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK SHALLOW/WEAK, AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ENSEMBLE/BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW. WARMER SAT, WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
BACK SOME DRY AIR AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE DAY. OVER THE ERN MOUNTAINS AND ON THE
PLAINS, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(DEWPOINTS 40-50F) RETURNS TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE, WHERE FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER FORCING APPEAR TO
BE A BIT STRONGER. UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN U.S. SUN/MON,
WITH STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. IN GENERAL, PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR WARM/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASED FIRE DANGER, THEN COOLER, POTENTIALLY WETTER
WEATHER MON, THOUGH TIMING ISSUES REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT ON
HOW QUICK THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COME THROUGH CO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING CLOUDS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY TOMORROW. BY AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE BREEZY, GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KALS
AND KCOS, FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY. KPUB WILL
ALSO SEE BREEZY SE WINDS, THOUGH A BIT LESS GUSTY. SOME SHOWERS MAY
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT
CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND
OF TAFS. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KCOS, FOLLOWED BY KPUB.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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