529  
FXUS65 KPUB 210019  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
619 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
 
UPDATED THE FORECAST AND ISSUED AN SPS FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WITH WEB CAMS IN ALS SUPPORTING THE  
"VIRGA BOMBS" ALONG WITH THE 59 MPH GUST AND BLOWING DUST AT THE  
ALAMOSA AIRPORT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
 
CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF  
UTAH AND INTO COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED  
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR  
INDICATES A FEW LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SO  
FAR. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS  
WESTERLIES PUSH OUT INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE  
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. EXPECT  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG WITH  
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY  
THREATS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 10 KFT WHERE  
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE,  
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S  
EXPECTED.  
 
SUNDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY BEFORE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT INITIAL  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS, SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID  
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE A  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS, BEFORE MAKING A PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN PLAINS ZONES  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE  
OR TWO OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
HAIL, UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER, ALONG WITH OUTFLOW WINDS  
APPROACHING 60 MPH, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE  
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY  
FAVOR LEFT SPLITS WITH STRONGER STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 70S ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT GENERALLY ABOVE 10  
KFT. A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE  
NATURE OF THE STORMS. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NOT BE  
ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. BUT  
CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED FOR TRAVELERS OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.  
MOZLEY  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
 
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SHALLOW  
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MON MORNING. BEST FORCING FOR  
PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NERN CO, THOUGH WITH  
INSTABILITY DECREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION, ANY  
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN EVENING WILL FADE TO JUST SOME  
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE OVER/NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY MON.  
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AZ INTO WRN NM  
MON/TUE, WHILE COOL/STABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN  
PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MON, WHICH  
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL PROVIDE SOME  
ADDED UPWARD MOTION TO CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON, AS MODEL CAPES RISE INTO THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE. SNOW  
LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY ABOVE 10000  
FEET. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE  
MOUNTAINS, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO  
MON NIGHT ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON TUE, WITH CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS  
IN THE AFTERNOON DRIFTING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WEAKENING  
LATE IN THE DAY. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN WILL BE FOUND  
ALONG THE NM BORDER BACK INTO THE ERN SAN JUANS, AS UPPER LOW  
SLOWLY SINKS SEWD ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN CLOUDS AND  
PRECIP, MAX TEMPS MON/TUE WILL RUN COOLER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH  
VALLEYS WILL STILL FALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WED MORNING IF  
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR.  
 
A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER/DRIER WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS FROM WED  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH  
EASTWARD ACROSS TX. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR  
MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED/THU  
BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN  
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW. AS HEIGHTS BUILD, MAX TEMPS  
WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND, WITH READINGS RISING BACK TO WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE LEVELS BY FRI/SAT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE  
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT DO NOT LOOK TO HIT ANY OF THE  
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KALS AND KCOS.  
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE  
REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KCOS AND KALS WILL LIKELY SEE THE  
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MW  
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY  
LONG TERM...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...MOZLEY  
 
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