893  
FXUS65 KPUB 231023  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
323 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY, TAPERING OFF  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL  
ACROSS OUR PLAINS TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES.  
 
- A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND RAIN TO PORTIONS  
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT.  
 
- PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024  
 
CURRENTLY..  
 
A LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATELLITE  
THIS MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. THIS  
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY, WHILE  
THE FIRST FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS  
OF 2AM, WITH 20S THROUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. SKY CONDITIONS ARE  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY, OR ARE FOLLOWING  
NORMAL NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE PATTERNS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND  
LOW 20S.  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT..  
 
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTH FROM  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOWN INTO COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.  
MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR DRYING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND  
POPS HAVE THUS BEEN CUT BACK A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. STILL, LIGHT  
SNOW LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING  
HOURS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW  
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS, MAINLY  
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. ON THE PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE,  
THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10-  
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING  
THROUGH THIS MORNING, THOUGH MOST OF US WILL STILL BE AROUND 10-15  
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR OUR PLAINS, AND 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  
SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT  
WE ARE WAKING UP TO THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BANANA BELT.  
PLAINS LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S, WITH JUST A FEW WARMER  
SPOTS IN THE BANANA BELT POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 30S. THE  
SAN LUIS VALLEY LOOKS TO DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS. SNOW ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS  
THE WAVE PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE  
AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS)...LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH  
THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM  
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. LATEST MODELS,  
HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE  
SYSTEM AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS DO AGREE ON INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A  
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEVELOPING MID  
LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z WED.  
WHERE THIS CIRCULATION GOES THERE AFTER REMAINS IN QUESTION, WITH  
THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION DIGGING THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS  
NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THOUGH  
DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE EPS, GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA, WHICH  
ARE ALL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL  
DATA. THE RATHER WARM AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS  
TO LIMIT SNOW AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE LATEST NBM DATA TRENDING  
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND GREATEST SNOWFALL.  
 
WITH THAT SAID, WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTDVD THROUGH  
CHRISTMAS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN MTNS AND I-25 CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL  
DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS WELL  
AS ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6  
INCHES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS INTO THE  
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTNS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST  
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SYSTEMS LACK OF COLD AIR AND SNOW LEVELS  
BETWEEN 5K-6K CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE PLAINS,  
THOUGH IF THE CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NORTH, THERE WOULD BE MORE PRECIPITATION  
AND SNOW FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PASSING  
CHRISTMAS SYSTEM, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES WHICH  
COULD START TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE CONTDVD THURSDAY, AS MORE EASTERN  
PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES.  
WITH SAID MODEL DIFFERENCES AND SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS TRANSLATING THROUGH  
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WE DID NOT STRAY FROM NBM, WHICH  
KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS  
THE CONTDVD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT AND ABOVE  
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF  
SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS. LIGHT NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT BOTH KCOS  
AND KPUB, WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS AT  
EACH RESPECTIVE STATION COMING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND  
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH SOME CLEARING MOVING IN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...EHR  
LONG TERM...MW  
AVIATION...EHR  
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