205
FXUS65 KPUB 292331
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- NEAR NORMAL AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER, ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
TONIGHT: HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
PLACE OVER THE AREA, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING, AND
MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS ANTICIPATED.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, A COLD BUT SEASONAL NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH
THE PLAINS FALLING INTO THE MID 10S TO LOW 20S, AND THE VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS INTO THE 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS.
TOMORROW: FOR FRIDAY, THE QUIET WEATHER TREND CONTINUES FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, AND WHILE WEAK OROGRAPHICS WILL BE ONGOING, THE MINIMAL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. BEYOND THAT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS
THAN 10 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSISTING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM TO
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, WITH THE PLAINS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, THE VALLEYS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, AND THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE 20S TO 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS A RIDGE AXIS SITS TO OUR WEST. NEAR
NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
PLAINS LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO, AND THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY COOLING TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY REMAIN COOL FURTHER EAST, BUT BEGIN TO WARM UP OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. OUR MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS LOOK TO BE THE
WARMEST ON SATURDAY, WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS PICKING UP AND HEATING
THINGS UP INTO THE MID 50S OR SO FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WE WARM UP EVEN MORE EFFICIENTLY FOR ALL
AREAS ON SUNDAY, AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION. ALL AREAS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY BOTH DAYS, WITH WINDS REMAINING ON THE WEAK SIDE.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY, THOUGH MODELS STILL LACK
CONSISTENCY ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR INCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. MONDAY
COULD END UP BEING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY, THOUGH WINDS APPEAR
TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY
STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH THE COOL DOWN HOLDING OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST WOULD BE A
WARMER SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING SNOW
CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY BOTH RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
PLAINS. THE SECOND SCENARIO PAINTS A LOW DIVING DOWN OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO CLOSER TO THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SNOW. THIS SOLUTION IS MOST FAVORED BY THE GFS AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO IS LOW GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY, BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY THE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH INCLUDES THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS,
KPUB AND KALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page