528  
FXUS65 KPUB 051022  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
422 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY AS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA  
INCREASES.  
 
2) FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK OVER THE BURN SCARS.  
 
TODAY...  
 
ANOTHER WARM, WET DAY IS AHEAD OF US, FUELED BY AN UPPER-  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AS A LOW  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF OF THE NW COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL  
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO HELP INITIATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE  
DIRECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MOSTLY  
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AREA. LATEST  
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING A BIT EARLIER THAN  
NORMAL IN THE DAY, LIKELY AT OR JUST BEFORE NOON. INSTABILITY VARIES  
ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON WHICH CAM YOU FOLLOW, BUT THE GENERAL  
CONSENSUS IS FOR MOST OF THE GOOD CAPE TO BE STUCK OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, BETWEEN ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG, PLENTY TO INITIATIVE AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR, AS MID-LEVEL  
FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON  
LOW-LEVEL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORM ENVIRONMENTS AND THE  
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE 20  
OR 30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OUT TODAY. BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL  
BE A BIG CONCERN TODAY, WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO SLOW  
STORM MOTIONS, AND THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA SUPPORTING  
HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS STORMS FIRING  
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURNED AREAS. MAIN AREAS TO WATCH THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SPRING, DECKER, AND HAYDEN BURN SCARS,  
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THEM WILL BE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK. A FEW  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO FORM OUT EAST NEAR THE CO-KS  
BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW  
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, GIVEN THE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE  
LOW-LEVELS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE  
AGAIN, WITH MID-70S OVER THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MID-HIGH 90S OVER  
THE EASTERN PLAINS.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,  
INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
2) DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY  
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL  
DAYS, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
IS EXPECTED. BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.  
SIMILARLY TO TODAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED OVER  
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
DRIFT TOWARDS I-25 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE  
ABOVE-AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN, HOVERING NEAR TUESDAY'S HIGHS.  
 
THURSDAY ONWARDS...  
 
MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING THE UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE OVERHEAD, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING  
THROUGH THE FLOW OVERHEAD. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SERVE AS THE  
IGNITION MECHANISMS FOR CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSISTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
PRODUCING BETTER INSTABILITY. BENEATH THE RIDGE, AT THE MID-LEVELS,  
FLOW STILL APPEARS MOSTLY WEAK AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. WEAK  
STEERING FLOW ALOFT HINTS AND THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR BURN SCAR  
FLASH FLOODING DURING EACH AFTERNOONS' ROUND OF STORMS. HOWEVER,  
STORM COVERAGE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK APPEARS MORE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED, WHICH MAKES THE BURN SCARS LESS LIKELY TO GET HIT. WARM  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF  
COOLDOWN INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY-SATURDAY, WITH  
ANOTHER WARMUP BACK INTO THE 90S AROUND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A  
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS  
INCREASED.  
 
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, MODELS ARE IN  
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING IN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE  
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO HEAT US UP AND DRY US OUT  
SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER DISTURBANCES TO THE FLOW ALOFT COULD  
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED MONSOONAL TREND OF DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
ONCE AGAIN TODAY THOUGH DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE  
SO WE CONTINUE THE VCSH/VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE  
MONDAY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED ALLOWING FOR  
STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP, EITHER WITHIN THE STORMS THEMSELVES OR  
OUTFLOW DRIVEN. STILL NEED TO WAIT TO ADD THAT KIND OF DETAIL TO THE  
TAFS, THOUGH THE IMPACT IS CERTAINLY THERE TODAY...AGAIN. MEDIUM TO  
HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS DECAY BY LATE EVENING LEAVING A LIGHT NORTH  
BREEZE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS BECOME MORE  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO  
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO  
AVIATION...HEAVENER  
 
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