022
FXUS65 KPUB 200012
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
512 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, MOVING EAST INTO
FRIDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAN JUANS, LIGHTER OVER THE
REST OF THE TERRAIN AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH A STRONG JET
MAXIMUM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
A BIT ACROSS SE COLORADO, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH OVER
THE PLAINS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-
25, PARTICULARLY GAP FLOW AREAS, THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING.
EARLY THIS EVENING, MODELS SHOW THE FIRST OF 2 DISTURBANCES MOVING
OVER OUR REGION, KICKING UP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. A
SECOND, STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, COINCIDING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY ON FRIDAY, ALSO MOVING DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS.
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME
SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND OTHER AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE SHIFTED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO, AND
EXACT NUMBERS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE PATH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT PROPAGATES PAST THE MOUNTAINS. THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO
THE MOUNTAINS, VASTLY INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE, MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODELS WITH A FASTER WAVE CUT OFF THE OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT
SOONER, CUTTING SNOWFALL TOTALS CONSIDERABLY.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS, HAVE BLENDED TOTALS DOWN FROM INCOMING
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SAN
JUANS, WHERE THE BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT, SYNOPTIC LIFT, AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALL COINCIDE. LATEST FORECASTS SHOW UP TO ABOUT A
FOOT OR SO AT THE PEAKS, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING A FEW INCHES MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE WINDS COOPERATE. HIGHEST TOTALS UP THERE
COME OUT TO ABOUT 15 INCHES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MEANWHILE, THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL SEE ABOUT 3-6 INCHES ON AVERAGE,
WITH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS END UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH. FOR AREAS OVER
THE PLAINS, EXPECTING TRACE AMOUNTS EAST OF I-25 AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, WHILE EL PASO COUNTY MAY SEE A HALF-INCH TO ABOUT THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IF A FEW DEGREES
COOLER IN PLACES THAT SEE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS REMAIN IN THE
40S TO NEAR-50 DOWN NEAR BACA COUNTY. THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
GIVEN THE NEW PRECIP FORECAST, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE HIGHER PORTION OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL WILL COINCIDE WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH, LEADING TO
DANGEROUS TRAVEL AND RELATED IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL
INDICATE A LARGE UPPER-RIDGE SETTLING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S-50S BY MONDAY. FURTHER OUT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE CHANCE FOR SOME HIGHS IN THE LOW-70S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY FLATTEN A BIT, WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED
CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO SET IN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY LESSEN HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORING, AND REMAIN GUSTY AS AS STORM SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE AREA. ALONG WITH THAT,
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH QUICK DROPS IN VISBILITY EXPECTED IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND LOWER IN HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY LESSEN
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM SWINGS OVER THE REGION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME IN ANY DIRECT IMPACTS. IF A SHOWER WERE TO IMPACT ONE OF
THE TAF SITES, QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY WOULD BE EXPECTED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ068.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-
227>230-233.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page