315
FXUS65 KPUB 241129
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY.
- SOME ACCUMULATION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND, WITH GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA LATE TONIGHT,
PRODUCING DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DRAWING A
HEALTHY MOISTURE PLUME UP ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN CO.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTS AND SE CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DECIDED TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SW MTS OVERNIGHT SINCE
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING, BUT FLOOD WATERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE PLAINS BY DAYBREAK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO AZ THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, CONTINUING THE S-SW FEED OF MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTHERN CO.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AS MUCH AS A 20 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH TO THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS POSITIONING WILL BE PRIME FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH RAIN IS STILL FORECAST ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, QPF
AMOUNTS ARE COMING IN AROUND HALF AN INCH OVER 24 HRS WHICH SHOULD
NOT FORCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREATS. ALSO, SNOW LEVELS ARE
DROPPING WITH NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MT PEAKS THROUGH THE EVENING, SO NEW SNOW MEANS LESS OF A RUNOFF
THREAT. FURTHER EAST, HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. LATEST
TOTALS ARE NOW RANGING FROM 1 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH LESSENS THE FLOODING THREAT AND BECOMES MORE
OF A BENEFICIAL RAIN. WPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A SLIGHT AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND SPC HAS INCLUDED
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITHIN A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS,
AND THE REST OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. PLENTY OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE, BUT CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LACKING, BUT THE COMBINATION
OF A SURFACE FRONT AND STRONGER S-SW FLOW ALOFT COULD MAKE IT SPORTY
FOR A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH, HAIL NEARING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, AND
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES UP INTO EAST CENTRAL UT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SLIDES EAST INTO CO THROUGH THE
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE STEERING FLOW
SHIFTS FROM A S-SW DIRECTION TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, KEEPING MUCH OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY AND HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. THE MT PEAKS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW, THOUGH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REALLY DROP OFF. THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND NEARING 60F
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW WEAKENS, OPENS AND EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS
START TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S FOR THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE BRUSHES BY TO
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, PRODUCING SOME BRISK WINDS, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL AS THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP IS TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STARTS CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.
MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF
THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE TAF
SITES. IN ADDITION TO THAT, RAIN SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH A PERSISTENT RAIN LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS RAIN MAY ALSO LOWER VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CORES. ALONG WITH THAT, WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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