972
FXUS65 KPUB 131021
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
...MODERATE SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 6000 FEET FOR THE
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
TONIGHT...
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SEND AN IMPULSE ACROSS CO AHEAD OF IT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SPREAD A ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AS
AREA OF WAA/OVERRUNNING SPREADS OVERTOP SHALLOW EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. SNOW BEGINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, BUT
PICKS UP IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TO
ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN SANGRES/WETS AND PIKES PEAK REGION THIS
EVENING. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO IMPACT THE SAWATCH AND
MOSQUITO RANGES, INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS DROP. GETTING AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AND WILL HOIST ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY
WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH TONIGHT. GETTING LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND WITH RESIDUAL WARMTH IN THE GROUND
CONTRIBUTING TO MELTING ON PAVEMENT SURFACES WILL REFRAIN FROM
ADDING THESE AREAS IN AS THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. IT
IS A LITTLE TRICKIER PROPOSITION FOR THE LEADVILLE AREA WHERE WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS EVENING WHICH COULD STACK
UP TO LOW END ADVISORY VALUES. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AREA OUT
FOR NOW AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE COMING UP ON THE SHY SIDE WITH
AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES. IT APPEARS HEAVIER QPF STAYS TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS CHAFFEE COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE PENETRATING UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY APPEARS TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE PIKES PEAK AND WET MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT AGAIN
THE WARM GROUND SHOULD MITIGATE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. GETTING LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR TELLER COUNTY THOUGH THE TOP OF PIKES PEAK COULD SEE
AROUND 5 INCHES WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THE WETS. THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS GET LESS FROM THIS EVENT WITH THE BEST
LIFT/UPSLOPE COMBO STAYING FARTHER NORTH. EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA
GARITAS COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SPREADING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DRY SLOT CUTS BACK
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO 5000 FEET TOWARDS MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND EVEN QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARDS 12Z
WED AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND SHALLOW SATURATION CONTINUES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE. STILL
A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR AND LOW LEVELS
DRY OUT SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THIS OCCURING. IF IT DOES,
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO RESIDUAL WARMTH OF THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED COOL TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. -KT
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROPAGATES TO THE NORTH AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN, DRIER AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO INFILTRATE THE REGION.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER PUSH OF AIR INTO THE REGION, A LULL IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE MAIN UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
AN UPTICK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND TELLER COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE RATHER
HIGH IN THE 6500-7000 FEET RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY RECEIVING AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION, WHILE
OTHER LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS SHOT OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE, IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES,
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VALLEY. WITH THE
SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN UPCOMING
PACKAGES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKS AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK,
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKING AT SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, THE EPS AND GEFS FOLLOW SIMILAR TRENDS AS THEIR
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, ECMWF AND GFS, RESPECTIVELY. A QUICK
LOOK AT THE SREF OUTPUT SHOWS A NORTHERLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND EPS. THAT SAID, SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THESE CHANCES SPREADING TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON FRIDAY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK LIKE THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BECOMES POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS DO REMAIN RATHER HIGH ON THURSDAY, BUT
THEN DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE ECMWF MOVING
IT THROUGH A BIT LATER THAN THE GFS, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, A LAGGING
TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
DRIER AIR AND A WARMING TREND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB AND
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS AT KALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MFVR TO IFR CATEGORY AT KCOS
THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO THE GRASS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. KPUB IS
MORE LIKELY TO STAY VFR TO MVFR WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT -SHRA
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY FOR BOTH
TERMINALS WED MORNING. KALS COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS
WITH -SHRA THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-061-063-073.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...CARLBERG
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page