701
FXUS65 KPUB 150021
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
621 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
- INTENSE COLD FRONT TO BLAST SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT; TURNING SHARPLY
COLDER.
- SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW PALMER DIVIDE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
(COULD BE BRIEFLY INTENSE, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLASH FREEZE OVER I-25
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING)
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY MIN TEMPS IN THE
10S MON MORNING.
- SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY, RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FIRST, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION INTO
THIS EVENING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER QUITE A
FEW AREAS AS RH VALUES ARE BELOW 15% AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS AN INTENSE 200+ MPH JET DROPS TOWARDS THE REGION. THESE DANGEROUS
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS EVENING AND RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER UNTIL THE
FRONT COMES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THE
WINDS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE JET CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH, AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET
THROUGH TOMORROW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN INTENSE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS AT
THIS TIME THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING
THE 1 AM TO 2 AM TIME PERIOD, AND QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH TO THE BORDER
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING
NORTH OF US50 PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT GOES BY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME QUITE STRONG. FOR THIS REASON, THE
HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBE ANY TIME FROM THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE OVERALL STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN EL PASO
COUNTY TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD.
THE PALMER DIVIDE IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR 1-2 HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW, AND THE SNOW MAY BE INTENSE DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOWFALL RATES. A SNOW SQUALL WARNING MAY BE
NEED TO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THIS REGION. I CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES ON GRASSY AREAS, AND IT MAY FLASH
FREEZE OVER PAVEMENT SURFACES.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW, AN RED
FLAG WARNING WAS NOT CONSIDERED AS TEMPERATURE TOMORROW WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP RH
VALUES IN THE 20S TO HIGH TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AS IT WILL BE WARMER THERE TOMORROW AND RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO AROUND 10% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE RATON MESA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
THIS COULD HAVE DETRIMENTAL AFFECTS TO ANY VEGETATION WHICH HAS
PREMATURELY COME OUT, ESPECIALLY FRUIT TREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S PLAINS AND
VALLEYS AND LIGHT WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT WILL BECOME SUMMER-LIKE HOT
WITH 80S AND 90S OVER THE PLAINS. RAPID SNOW MELT IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT,
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE HOT AIR WILL DRY
OUT THE VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA AND ANTICIPATED MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 5-8% RANGE EVERY AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY
AND MONTHLY RECORDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
\
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WILL DEVELOP VERY EARLY IN THIS TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
THREE TAF SITES IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY AS A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME A
CONCERN, BUT PARTICULARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS MIXING STARTS TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT KCOS TONIGHT WITH THE INITIAL STORM PASSAGE, HOWEVER, STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AROUND
KCOS AT ALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AT KCOS, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS, THOUGH A QUICK -SHSN 09Z-14Z
COULD BRIEFLY (10-20 MINUTES) DROP CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY (35-40 KTS) OUT OF THE WEST THIS EVENING, THEN
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AFTER 08Z. GUSTS
OF 40-50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE FROPA, CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z,
BEFORE SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY (30-35 KTS) WEST WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z, WITH GUSTS OVER 40
KTS LIKELY 09Z-18Z, BEFORE SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF (LESS THAN 30 MINUTES) MVFR
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA,
BUT WON'T INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
AT KALS, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTY (30-40 KTS) W-SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH STILL
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS TURN NLY AROUND 11Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH
GUSTS 30-40 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224>237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ060-061-072>075-
087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ224.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ084>086-088-089-093>099.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page