911
FXUS65 KPUB 261930
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
130 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
MAINLY FROM THE LA GARITA RANGE, NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, WITH 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE IN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
WITH AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, AND MODEST SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS STORMS SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, A COUPLE MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
IN BENT, PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BACK MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, ENHANCING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY VALUES. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS
SOUTHEASTERLY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, CLEARING INTO KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE, HAIL TO
NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SATURDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AS FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST USHERS IN
DRY AIR. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES. IN
ADDITION, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL, TO
NEAR 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM, WITH 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. THERE ARE CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHERE
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST. BUT, MANY
AREAS SAW SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK AND IT MAY TAKE A
COUPLE DAYS FOR FUELS TO DRY OUT. THAT BEING SAID, NOT ALL
AREAS SAW RAINFALL, AND GIVEN THE CONDITIONS, ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH GREAT CAUTION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
FAVOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, WITH PERSISTENT DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW, WITH VALUES AT OR
UNDER 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY EACH DAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH 90S TO LOWER 100S
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY. THE PLAINS CONTINUE TO REACH CRITERIA AS WELL, BUT
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FUELS ARE IN QUESTION GIVEN RECENT SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINFALL. BY MONDAY, WE MAY NEED TO RETHINK ISSUING FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON THE PLAINS AS FUELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN STILL FAVORS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, HOWEVER, ENERGY IN MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER. THIS
MAY LEAD IN AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
BORDER. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES OUT THIS FAR IN THE
FORECAST, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH 90S
TO LOWER 100S ON THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LIMIT
VIS AND CIGS. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BY
LATE MORNING.
KCOS AND KPUB...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES AT KCOS. REDUCED VIS, CIGS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BEGINNING
SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST ON THE
PLAINS, HOWEVER, RECENT SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY TEMPER BRIEFLY
DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON
THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS PROLONGED DRY, WINDY PERIOD.
ALL AREAS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION WITH ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES, AS NOT ALL AREAS SAW RAINFALL, AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER STILL EXISTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ220>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ220>222-224-225.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...MOZLEY
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