721
FXUS65 KPUB 172343
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
543 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER BURN SCAR AREAS.
- WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
- MONDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING OUT WEST, BUT REMAINING HOT AND DRY OUT EAST.
- UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS BY MID WEEK AS
SOME DEGREE OF MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS AND COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BRING PROMISE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION TODAY, KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, DRIFTING
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LATER ON IN THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RATON MESA, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH POSES FLASH FLOODING RISKS FOR BURN SCARS,
ONGOING FIRES, AND OTHER AT RISK AREAS. MEANWHILE, WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT NE STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY
ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGH-80S
TO MID-90S OVER THE PLAINS, AND HIGH 70S-80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STARTING ON SATURDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
SLIGHTLY EAST, PUSHING THE MONSOON PLUME A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD.
THIS WILL DECREASE OUR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY
CONFINING SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS TO THE SAN JUANS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRES. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OUT
EAST GETTING CLOSE TO THE 100-DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED OVER OUR WESTERNMOST
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNDER THE DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FINALLY REACHING TRIPLE-
DIGITS IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS WELL, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE AGAIN AND
LETS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA.
MOVING TOWARDS MID-WEEK, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FAR TO OUR NE. SOMETIME EARLY ON TUESDAY,
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE
MONSOON PLUME ALOFT SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST. THE INFLUX OF COOLER,
MORE MOIST AIR INTO OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. PWATS LOOK TO BOTH INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL AND SPREAD
INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL, INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING, BOTH OVER BURN SCAR AND URBAN AREAS. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE JUST A BIT, LEVELING OUT RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AT KALS, KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA UNTIL 03Z, THEN VCSH TIL
06Z, AS WEAKENING CONVECTION DRIFTS THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO SAT
MORNING, BEFORE CHANCE OF -TSRA RETURNS STARTING 21Z AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE
VALLEY.
AT KCOS, WILL MONITOR WEAK CONVECTION (AS CLOSE AS
KAFF AS OF 2330Z) THIS EVENING, THOUGH STEERING CURRENTS WILL
TEND TO TAKE STORMS WESTWARD, AND WON'T INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN
THE TAF AT THIS POINT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH EAST WINDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, THEN GUSTY E-SE WINDS RETURN SAT
AFTERNOON AS VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AT KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. E-SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURN AFTER 18Z ON SAT, WITH A FEW
GUSTS 20-25 KTS LIKELY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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