212  
FXUS65 KPUB 232327  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
527 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MOSTLY DRY AND HOT TOMORROW! TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID  
BEING OUTDOORS FOR LONG PERIODS AND STAY HYDRATED! HEAT  
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO, PUEBLO, AND EASTERN FREMONT  
COUNTIES.  
 
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. HAIL UP TO HALF  
INCH AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REACHING 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY,  
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS THROUGH THE  
END THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
 
DETAILED DISCUSSION:  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS  
LATER THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF  
THE CWA. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN, ALTHOUGH EVERYTHING SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND GENERALLY  
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGH COUNTRY.  
 
TOMORROW...  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE OVER  
THE REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HOT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL  
EXCEED 100 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE HOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN  
CATEGORY 3 HEAT INDICES FOR MOST OF EL PASO, PUEBLO, AND EASTERN  
FREMONT COUNTIES AND FOR THIS REASON THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY IN  
PLACE FOR THESE COUNTIES BETWEEN NOON UNTIL 6 PM. BE SURE TO CHECK  
ON ELDERLY PEOPLE, LIMIT DURATION OF TIME OUTDOORS AND STRENUOUS  
ACTIVITIES...AND ALWAYS MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED! IN ADDITION TO  
THE HEAT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AS MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED UP FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT INITIATES CONVECTION. THERE IS  
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE  
TROUGH TO THE NORTH SCOOTS ON BY DURING THE MID PART OF THE DAY.  
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE PLAINS, WITH ONLY A STORM  
OR TWO POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING OFF  
THE RATON RIDGE. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY, WITH ONLY  
MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION. STILL, THERE  
ARE STILL GOING TO BE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES, AS WELL AS SHEAR  
EXCEEDING 40 KTS OVER SOME AREAS OF THE CONTDVD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR  
A STRONGER STORM TO DEVELOP. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THERE MAY BE HAIL  
UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS APPROACHING 50 MPH.  
-STEWEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
 
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
REMAINS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE UPPER  
HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE  
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.  
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH SOME MOISTURE  
PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. WITH PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH AND PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF  
16C-20C, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105F ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO  
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE ABOVE SEASONAL  
LEVELS IN THE 70S AND 80S, SAVE FOR 50S AND 60S AT THE PEAKS.  
 
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER INFLUX  
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER HIGH.  
THIS WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION  
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A WEAK  
FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY,  
WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER  
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY  
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24  
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE AREA  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AFTER ABOUT 20Z, LEADING TO VCSH AND  
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT THE TERMINALS. NO  
PRECIPITATION OR DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,  
THOUGH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ083>086.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...STEWARD  
LONG TERM...MW  
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  
 
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