852
FXUS65 KPUB 161723
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH INCREASING WINDS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ON THE PLAINS.
- OCCASIONAL WINDY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
CURRENTLY..
A VERY WEAK WAVE/OPEN LOW IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, BRINGING SOME
SPARSE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOON TO BE INCOMING OVER OUR
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 2 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THE PLAINS, WITH TEENS OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH READINGS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO THIS HOUR AS DRY AIR
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
THE WEAK WAVE TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TODAY, AS WESTERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT FROM WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING, TO STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IT WILL BE HARD TO NOTICE MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE JUST A BIT AS WELL FROM WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES,
WITH BOTH PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN TWO
DEGREES OF THEIR STANDING RECORDS (COLORADO SPRINGS FORECAST: 65F,
RECORD: 67F)(PUEBLO FORECAST: 68F, RECORD: 70F). WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY A BIT GUSTIER OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED,
THOUGH OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR AND QUIET DAY FOR MOST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE WERE
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND
DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO KEEP THINGS MIXED. MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE BANANA BELT, WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE STRONGEST.
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE KANSAS BORDER, MID TO UPPER 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
UPPER JET MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WED MORNING, THEN
ADVANCES QUICKLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. IN
RESPONSE, LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS, WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY
WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. JET THEN MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING, WITH
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY 03Z-09Z, WITH POCKETS OF 50-60
KT WINDS AT 700MB, AND SOME 100KT FLAGS AT 500MB. STILL NOT
SEEING A CLASSIC MOUNTAIN WAVE SET-UP WITH MOUNTAIN TOP
INVERSION/CRITICAL LAYER LACKING, THOUGH SHEAR PROFILE DOES GO
NEUTRAL/WEAK REVERSED FOR PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE JET
ARRIVES AND PROFILE BECOMES STRONGLY FORWARD AFTER 00Z. SIMPLE
BRUTE FORCE MIXING SHOULD GET WINDS ABOVE 75 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER/NEAR PIKES PEAK, ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER EAST ALONG I-25, LACK OF A
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND LATE ARRIVAL (AFTER SUNSET) OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT, THOUGH WITH BORA
COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING, COULD
GET A QUICK BURST OF 50-60 MPH WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE 8PM-2AM TIMEFRAME. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF
HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS TO LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND LET LATER SHIFTS
LOOK TAKE A LOOK AT NEW CAMS DATA LATER TODAY. HAVE ALSO
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING FOR WED AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH FREMONT COUNTY AND ALONG/EAST OF I-25 FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, AND EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE THE PALMER DIVIDE
AS WELL. A GOOD DEAL OF BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH
THRESHOLD (15 PERCENT) MAY BE HARD TO REACH AS DEWPOINTS STAY IN
THE 20S, BUT HAVE SEEN AT LEAST A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY ECMWF)
SHOWING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS, LEADING TO
RH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS, WHICH SEEMS
REALISTIC GIVEN STRONG WINDS/MIXING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WHILE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (1-3 INCHES) TRAVEL COULD BE
DIFFICULT AT TIMES OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES GIVEN COMBINATION
OF WIND AND BLOWING SNOW.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY, AS COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ALOFT STAY STRONG, AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW MIXING, SUSPECT WE'LL SEE SOME 30-45
MPH GUSTS REAPPEAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. THIS RAISES
THE RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE PLAINS, AS DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPS, DEWPOINTS WILL
CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. WON'T ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHT RIGHT NOW,
BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF DRYING TREND PERSISTS
IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. WARMER AND BREEZY/WINDY ON FRI,
THOUGH WITH UPPER JET SHIFTING NORTHWARD, EXTREME WINDS LOOK
UNLIKELY. WINDIEST ON THE PLAINS, WHERE DEEP MIXING ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS, AND WE MAY AGAIN HAVE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. SLIGHTLY COOLER (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AND
BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, THEN
DRY, WARMER AND STILL BREEZY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. SCT TO INTERMITTENT BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061-081-082.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ222-
226>237.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE
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