521
FXUS65 KPUB 150741
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
141 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONAL TODAY, WITH SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
- BREEZY AND WARM THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF COLORADO THIS MORNING, WITH SLOWLY
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE DAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR
TODAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN GAP FLOW FAVORED REGIONS AND ACROSS THE
UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY. AT THIS POINT, FLOW ALOFT DOESN'T APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH AS 7H WINDS
ARE UNDER 20 KTS, SO WILL RUN WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS AND JUST A
MENTION OF BRIEF ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF
SEASONAL VALUES, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP A FEW DEGF
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS,
WITH INCREASING SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS CO AS NEXT UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW ISN'T
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE (25-35 KTS AT 7H), SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS, WHILE HUMIDITY DROPS OFF TO BELOW 10
PERCENT IN SPOTS BY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS. SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO JUSTIFY THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT,
THOUGH HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME WEAKER GUSTS ON THE PLAINS IN
SOME OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE, SO HAVE KEPT IT A WATCH FOR NOW. MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S/80S ON THE PLAINS WITH DEEP
MIXING, WITH 60S VALLEYS AND 50S/60S MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEND TOWARD A FASTER SYSTEM CONTINUING IN MOST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AS A RESULT, COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE
PLAINS HAS SPED UP, WITH A FEW SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS FRI MORNING, WHILE MAJORITY OF
MODELS/ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LATER PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS EARLY FRI,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
FRONTAL TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW SHOWERS START EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE
FRONT IS QUICK ENOUGH, COULD SEE SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK
REGION/PUEBLO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW QUICKLY
EVEN ALONG I-25 LATE FRI/FRI EVENING, WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMS (2-4 INCHES IN TELLER COUNTY) FORECAST, AND WON'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE/NRN COS AS WELL. FORCING FOR PRECIP DROPS OFF QUICKLY
THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO ACROSS THE REGION, AND MANY AREAS SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN/SNOW.
UPWARD MOTION DIMINISHES QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
RAPIDLY AWAY, AND EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP TO END BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DIE OFF AND SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SAT
MORNING, WITH TEENS MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, 20S ON THE PLAINS.
COOL AND DRY ON SATURDAY, AND WILL IGNORE SLIGHT CHANCE NBM POPS
SAT AFTERNOON, AS AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.
AFTER ANOTHER SUB-FREEZING START SUN MORNING, WARMING TREND
BEGINS FROM SUN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE COULD SEE SOME MODEST WESTERLY GUSTY FLOW AT
KPUB AND KALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
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