971
FXUS65 KPUB 280739
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1239 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH LESS WIND AND LOWER FIRE DANGER, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER SUNDAY ON THE PLAINS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- WEATHER SYSTEM ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
- MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THOUGH TRACK AND INTENSITY DETAILS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, AND WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW (10-15
PERCENT), WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, LIMITING
THE FIRE DANGER AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS, SO EVEN THOUGH
MIXING MAY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH
WIND TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S/70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH 40S/50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK LEE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SOME MODEST DOWNSLOPE BREEZES GOING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, KEEPING EAST SLOPE MINS ABOVE FREEZING ONCE
AGAIN, WHILE MOST MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SETTLE INTO THE 20S. ON
THE PLAINS, COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BACK WESTWARD BY EARLY SUN
MORNING, LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASING
SLOWLY IN SPEED AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
COOLER AIR BACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH EASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGF COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 50S NEAR THE KS BORDER. WESTERN
EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR COULD ERODE A BIT BY SUN AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS POPPING BACK INTO THE 60S ALONG I-25, THOUGH AGAIN SUSPECT
TEMP GRADIENT SUN AFTERNOON MAY END UP TIGHTER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST, AS BLENDED GUIDANCE TENDS TO OVER SMOOTH THINGS A BIT.
SOME RISK THAT WE COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN FORECAST ON THE
PLAINS IF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH, AS AT LEAST
SOME, BUT NOT ALL MOS GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGF COLDER THAN NBM.
ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT NOW LOOK TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF
THE REGION, WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECTED. COLD AIR
RETREATS ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AT MANY LOCATIONS.
COULD SEE ENOUGH WIND TO GET ELEVATED/BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER OVER THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR MON AFTERNOON, AND MAY NEED A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE AT SOME POINT FOR THE WALSENBURG/TRINIDAD
AREAS IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONFIRM THE RETURN OF DRY/WINDY
CONDITIONS.
MODELS/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE WITH THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
COLORADO TUE/WED, WITH A TRACK GENERALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE EXPECTED. BEST FORCING FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WOULD
APPEAR TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CO, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUE/TUE NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. QPF
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FALL, WITH WPC/NBM VALUES BELOW A QUARTER
INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS, HEAVIEST IN TELLER COUNTY. STILL WONDER
IF WE COULD GET A SURPRISE PERIOD OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP
TUE EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND
PERHAPS THE WETS, AS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS BRIEFLY NELY AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LINGERS, WITH A RANDOM ASSORTMENT OF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OCCASIONALLY PUTTING A BULLSEYE OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OVER THE ERN SLOPES. FORECAST DOESN'T PORTRAY THIS
SCENARIO YET, BUT BEARS WATCHING, ESPECIALLY AS SNOW LEVELS FALL
BELOW 7000 FEET TUE EVENING.
QUICK WARM UP WED/THU AS SYSTEM DEPARTS, WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AT ALL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. NEXT PIECE
OF UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES THE STATE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIP, THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND START TO VARY WIDELY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, LEADING TO A
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
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