648
FXUS65 KPUB 060513
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS, EAST INTO TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING
AREA, WITH STRONGER STORMS DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH
HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH 9 PM
BEFORE DISSIPATING AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MOZLEY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
..A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TOMORROW
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KPUX RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON IS
CLEARING INDICATING AN MCV SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY,
WHICH HAS HELPED TO TURN MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW MORE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SCATTERED STORMS MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCV ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS DATA AS OF 2 PM HAS MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA, GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH
MLCIN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATES THE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND ENDING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WITH THAT SAID, BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
STAY WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PUSHING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR
STORMS DEVELOPING OR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BURN SCARS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS LOOK TO BE AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRIER AIR BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH STRONG SUMMER SUNSHINE, TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA, HOWEVER INDICATE THESE
STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LESS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, MODELS INDICATING WARMING ALOFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE PLAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH THE
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S AT THE PEAKS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
GLENN FREY SANG, 'THE HEAT IS ON'. HE WAS SINGING ABOUT THIS
UPCOMING WEEK IN SOUTHERN COLORADO, LOOK IT UP. BEYOND TUESDAY THE
FORECAST LOOKS BLEAK IN TERMS OF THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE HEAT
REALLY HEATS UP. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RAIN EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
160. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.
WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY... THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD EACH DAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ENTERING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING CLOSE TO 600DM HEIGHTS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THAT IS A PRETTY BIG AND ROBUST
HEAT DOME. TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROBABLY
BACK INTO PUEBLO JUST ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON. COULD BE LOOKING AT A
FEW DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT SEEING A
TREMENDOUSLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE THREAT
AS THE WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR EACH DAY. THAT BEING SAID,
WITH THE HEAT AND DRYNESS WE'LL BE SEEING, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10-15%.
-HEAV
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR KALS AND KCOS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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