941  
FXUS65 KPUB 051732  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1132 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN  
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TUE/WED WITH ONLY VERY  
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
- HOT THU, BUT WITH AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES, THEN COOLER FRI WITH SCATTERED STORMS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TODAY: SATURDAY BRINGS SOME ACTIVE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
START TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE COLORADO AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION.  
WHILE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE, LEE  
TROUGHING CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE  
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP DEVELOP UPSLOPING INTO THE EASTERN TERRAIN  
FEATURES. ALONG WITH THAT, MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS  
THE PLAINS LEFT BEHIND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL OF  
THAT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS, AND GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY  
LATE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STRONG, TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, STORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN AN UPTICK IN BULK SHEAR  
AROUND 30 KNOTS, ALLOWING FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH HIGH  
BASES AND LARGE DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1600-1800 J/KG, STRONG OUTFLOW  
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD, THOUGH FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED  
TO PREVAIL, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE  
REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS  
RECENTLY, CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED. AS  
FOR TEMPERATURES, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH THE PLAINS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S,  
THE VALLEYS INTO THE 80S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
TONIGHT: FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTIVE IS EXPECTED EARLY, THOUGH WITH  
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE  
LACK OF MAJOR FORCING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE  
LATE EVENING HOURS AS OUTFLOW FROM SATURDAY DAY STORMS PUSHES  
EASTWARD. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, AS INSTABILITY WANES, AND OUTFLOWS  
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE LATE  
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AROUND 5  
MPH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD AND SEASONAL, WITH THE  
PLAINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, THE PLAINS INTO THE  
40S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.  
 
TOMORROW: THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGS A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE DAY,  
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY'S. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE SUBSIDENCE WILL STAY HEIGHTENED WITH  
THIS FEATURE, LEE TROUGHING CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN  
DEVELOP, ALLOWING FOR MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO  
UPSLOPE INTO THE EASTERN TERRAIN FEATURES. WITH UPSLOPING  
MATERIALIZING AGAIN, AND MODEST MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE FROM  
SATURDAY'S CONVECTION, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BLOSSOM  
INITIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS, AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKE SATURDAY, A COUPLE OF STRONG, TO MARGINALLY  
SEVERE, STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODEST  
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS REMAINING IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR MINOR  
STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ARE THE  
EXPECTED HAZARD GIVEN HIGH STORM BASES AND LARGE DCAPE VALUES AROUND  
1600-1800 J/KG, THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF  
PERIODS OF HEAVY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.  
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE REST OF THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WARM AND NEAR SEASONAL DAY  
IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PLAINS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID  
90S, THE VALLEYS INTO THE 80S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 60S AND  
70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD MON AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING, SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS  
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN  
MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY (CAPE 1K-2K J/KG) FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE  
PLAINS, THOUGH DECREASED SHEAR (0-6KM 20-30 KTS) MAY KEEP A LID  
ON STORM STRENGTH, WITH LOWER END SEVERE STORMS (WIND 60  
MPH/QUARTER SIZE HAIL) THE MAIN RISK.  
 
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUE/WED, BRINGING HOT TEMPS AND  
GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL  
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TERRAIN AND KS  
BORDER STORMS BOTH DAYS, THOUGH WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED  
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER WEAK/SHORT LIVED. MAX  
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO TOWARD THE 100F DEGREE MARK ON THE  
PLAINS, WITH 80S/90S WIDESPREAD AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, 70S/80S  
MOUNTAINS. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG  
SHORT WAVE RACING ACROSS THE NRN U.S. LATE THU INTO FRI, PUSHING  
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO LATE  
THU/EARLY FRI, WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE 8-12 HRS FASTER  
IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR INCREASED  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THU AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY IN MOISTER, POST-FRONTAL  
UPSLOPE PATTERN. FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR  
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THU, WITH MAXES NEAR 100F AGAIN ON THE  
PLAINS, BEFORE COOLER AIR SPREAD SOUTH ON FRI, DROPPING TEMPS  
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND  
KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS  
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG  
THE KS BORDER. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE WEST MAY BECOME  
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG  
OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL, CLOUD TO  
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.  
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN PROB30 WORDING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB FROM  
ROUGHLY 22Z-04Z FOR -TSRA AND LOWERING CIGS, THOUGH KCOS WILL  
HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. MOORE  
 
 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE  
LONG TERM...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...MOORE  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab CO Page
Main Text Page