756
FXUS65 KPUB 050633
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1233 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO TAP AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING
MONDAY.
- CONTINUED HOT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINED CENTERED OVER WESTERN WA AND OR
COASTLINES, BROAD UPPER HIGH SITS OVER HE CENTRAL US, AND HURRICANE
MARIE CONTINUES TO CHUG AWAY OFF THE COAST OF THE CA BAJA. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CO PERSISTS.
CURRENTLY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CO BORDER AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER, WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. SOME CLEARING OF THE NIGHTTIME SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST FORECAST TO COOL TO
AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, SO A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO FRIDAY IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY. SO PLAN ON ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY MIDDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. AS ACTIVITY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS, NEAR THE KS BORDER, WHICH SHOULD LINGER LATE
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DIPPING DOWN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KIOWA
COUNTY, SO ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS THERE MAY BE STRONG TO
BORDERLINE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH. ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NW STARTS TO DIG
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OR, SWEEPING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TAP INTO THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, IN ESSENCE ROBBING MUCH OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM
COLORADO. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MODELS ARE REALLY
BACKING OFF FROM EARLIER MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, SO EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER DUMBBELLS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ID AND
MT ON MONDAY, SWEEPING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
TIME, THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS CO AND THE ROCKIES,
TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE AND PROVIDING FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES, SO PLAN
ON ONE MORE DAY OF HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH, BUT ONE THING THEY AGREE
UPON IS SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SE US BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS CO. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
MOVES OVERHEAD, EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA VERY HOT, AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SLOWLY DROP
A FEW DEGREES DAY TO DAY, BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE. HOWEVER, AREA BURN SCARS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BECAUSE STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, LEADING
TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED STORM
TOTAL PRECIP. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED -TSRA AT KCOS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TAF WILL NEED TO
BE AMENDED IN LATER UPDATES IS PROBABILITIES INCREASE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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