066
FXUS65 KPUB 181115
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
515 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MID 80S
TO MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
- SPOTTY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- A COOL FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL COOLER AIR, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
CURRENTLY...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A FEW 30S OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, STRETCHING INTO
FREMONT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, WINDS FOR THE MOST PART LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OUTSIDE THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
QUICKLY, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MID
70S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AT DAILY
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
AFTER SUNSET, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 20S AND 30S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED WAVE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
PATTERN AS THE UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE FLOW TO WEAKEN
ACROSS COLORADO, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WHILE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY LOW, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THERE COULD BE SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH CONTINUED NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN MILD, MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING ALL TIME MARCH RECORD HIGHS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW, AND THE MIXING WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO, WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, AND MODELS
VARY IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WAVES. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS, AND EASTWARD INTO
THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOK
MINOR AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS LOOK
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY, WITH
ENHANCED MIXING AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW DIURNAL FLOW PATTERNS, WITH
INTERMITTENT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 12
KNOTS OR LESS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT THE LOW END CHANCE FOR A FEW
GUSTS AT KALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 18TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 86.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ222-224.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLIMATE...MW
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