138
FXUS65 KPUB 060704
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
104 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
RIDGING WEAKENS AND FLATTENS OVERHEAD TODAY, INCREASING ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING
GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR BACA COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS
AND PROWERS MAY SEE BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM UP INTO 60S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH 70S AND FEW LOW 80S ON THE PLAINS.
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS, BUT
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST AREAS.
GUSTIEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. INCREASING MID-
LEVEL AND UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN PRECIP-
FREE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND THE WETS AS WELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT BACKS ACROSS OUR
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT'S IMPACTS MAY NOT BE FELT
UNTIL TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ARE LIKELY FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH 30S AND LOW 40S ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY..
TOMORROW'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WE WILL STILL FAIRLY NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH LOW 70S ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO HELP SPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10,000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. WE DRY OUT
AND WARM UP QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING ON THE PLAINS, WITH HIGHS SOARING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, FREMONT COUNTY, AND THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MODELS SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER QUICK EMBEDDED WAVE AND MORE
PRECIP CHANCES AROUND THURSDAY. IF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT
ENDS UP COMING IN LATER, WE MAY ALSO HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME WE LOOK TO BE COOLER WITH
EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, AND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL BRINGS A LOW ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE LATE-WEEK
TIMEFRAME, THOUGH THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS INCOMING SYSTEM MIGHT
PROGRESS REMAIN FOGGY AT BEST. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND
DURING THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE, IT SEEMS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AS DIURNAL MIXING BECOMES ESTABLISHED, WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KPUB. HEIGHTENED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS TAF PERIOD BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY THROUGH TOMORROW.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW,
WITH WINDS AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WITH THAT SAID, HIGH BASED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITE. OUTSIDE OF THAT THOUGH, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ237.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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