366  
FXUS65 KPUB 231031  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
431 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FOR CERTAIN AREAS ON THE PLAINS,  
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...  
 
TODAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO,  
HOWEVER, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW  
WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE  
TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO  
INCREASE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH  
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN  
CONTDVD INITIALLY, AND THEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR  
THE SAN JUANS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE  
EVENING AS WELL, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO  
POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SAWATCH RANGE.  
 
DOWNSLOPING AND ADIABATICALLY WARMING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM OVER THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY THE  
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY WITH ENSEMBLES  
SHOWING MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 11 TO 14 PERCENT OVER  
A MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AND ANYWHERE BETWEEN 16 TO 18 PERCENT FOR  
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WHILE PEAK WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTING NEAR  
30 MPH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE NOT GOING  
TO BE QUITE AT THE THRESHOLD OF 15 PERCENT OR BELOW TO SUPPORT FIRE  
WEATHER CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT GET TO  
NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF  
THE VALLEY. FOR THE PLAINS, THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PUEBLO, HUERFANO,  
AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS  
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, IT IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME.  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL, WITH  
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.  
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD HELP TO INCREASE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
RISK IN CERTAIN AREAS. THE ADIABATICALLY WARMING WINDS WILL ALSO  
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME QUITE WARM AND WELL ABOVE THE  
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
AROUND 85 DEGREES FOR BACA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE  
TEMPERATURES AROUND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 50S TO 60S, AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGH COUNTRY, AND AROUND  
25 DEGREES FOR THE FOURTEENERS.  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES  
FURTHER TO THE EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH GOING INTO THE  
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING OUT OF THE NW  
OVER THE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NE OVER THE EASTERN  
PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE  
NORTHERN CONTDVD, MAINLY THE SAWATCH RANGE, OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS  
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR, YET REMAIN BREEZY, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD FOR MOST LOCATIONS...FROM THE 40S OVER  
THE PLAINS, TO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS,  
AND 15 DEGREES FOR THE FOURTEENERS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ENDING  
BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY, THOUGH  
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE  
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MID-LEVEL FLOW DECREASES. ONLY CAME UP WITH  
SOME VERY PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WRN  
PUEBLO/ERN FREMONT COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS  
RH BRIEFLY DROPS TOWARD 15 PERCENT, THOUGH AREAL EXTENT LOOKS TOO  
SMALL AND DURATION TOO SHORT FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPS SUN  
LOOK TO RUN 5-8 DEGF COOLER THAN SAT AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH  
GREATEST COOLING OVER THE PLAINS.  
 
TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MON, WITH  
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH  
MOVES INTO THE WRN U.S. AGAIN, DON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MON, AS WINDIEST AREAS ON THE PLAINS HOLD  
ONTO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP RH WELL ABOVE 15 PERCENT,  
WHILE DRIER AREAS FARTHER WEST DON'T HAVE QUITE ENOUGH WIND FOR  
ANY HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPS BOUNCE BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL  
AVERAGES AGAIN, AND SOME NEAR 80F READINGS WILL RETURN TO THE  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE STATE TUE/TUE NIGHT, WITH PREFERRED  
GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND  
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF  
SNOW AND WIND TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUE, WHILE  
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINING HIGH  
TERRAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. MAY NEED SOME WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT  
SOME POINT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR THE DIVIDE, BUT STILL TOO  
FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. PRECIP OVER THE ERN MT  
SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS LOOKS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST TUE  
GIVEN 30-40 KT WLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB, THOUGH  
SUPPOSE SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS  
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT. NBM POPS OVERALL  
LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THE  
PLAINS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE  
STRONG ENOUGH TUE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON THE PLAINS, THOUGH  
WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIP/VIRGA/CLOUD COVER, RH IS FAIRLY  
MARGINAL, THOUGH 00Z GFS DOES HINT AT A FAIRLY QUICK DROP IN  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG I-25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TUE  
AGAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS, WHILE MOUNTAINS  
COOL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. STILL  
BREEZY TO WINDY ON THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
WED/THU, WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE  
THEN BUILDS LATE WEEK WITH WARMER AIR AND LESS WIND FOR FRI.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARE TO BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD DECKS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY BUT  
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BASED. THERE WILL BE -SHSN/SHSN DEVELOPING OVER  
THE MOUNTAINS, SO REDUCED VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE AREAS.  
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT STRONGER AT KALS. BE ADVISED THAT  
WITH THESE AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL  
TERMINALS, THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE CAT. ALSO, POSSIBLE  
STANDING LENTICULARS/MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING DOWNWIND OF THE LEEWARD (E-NE'WARD) SIDE OF ALL  
MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS  
OUT OF THE SW.  
 
WINDS AT KALS WILL BE MAINLY L&V THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE OUT OF  
THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.  
THEY WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SW.  
 
WINDS AT KCOS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE THIS MORNING, BECMG  
SSE-SSW'LY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GUSTY AT TIMES UP TO 20  
KTS. THEY WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND SWITCH BACK TO THE  
NE.  
 
WINDS AT KPUB WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW, THEN BECMG SW'LY AND  
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS. THEY WILL SWITCH  
BACK TO THE NW AND DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...STEWARD  
LONG TERM...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...STEWARD  
 
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