592
FXUS65 KPUB 241136
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
436 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY, AND THE HRRR SHOWS
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER MTN AREAS, AND MAYBE SOME
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF EXPECTED SNOW TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW THAT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES, WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY
AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT,
AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY THE LA GARITA MTNS. THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
ONE MORE DAY OF COLD, UNSETTLED AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF MODERATING/WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, NEXT QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
COMBINATION WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE SURGE WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM TO BE NOTED
FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES ON
TUESDAY ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
PROJECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 30S OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS TUESDAY, WITH EXPECTED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND
CHILL READINGS TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS(POSSIBLY
COLDER) BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.
THEN, OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS,
PV ANALYSIS, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, ETC., INDICATE THAT A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PATTERN FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER THE CWA, ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FINALLY, INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE REALIZED
OVER PRIMARILY CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LOCATIONS AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES
AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OR IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ058>060.
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