559
FXUS65 KPUB 231720
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, COOLING DOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION, THOUGH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO INCREASE A BIT TODAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, SE MOUNTAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM
HIGH-60S TO MID-70S. WARMEST AREAS WILL COINCIDE WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S-40S, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODEST RH RECOVERY ALONGSIDE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID-80S, THOUGH WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS. CURRENTLY, WINDS LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE
CLOSE. NO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED, AS OF NOW, BUT IF CONDITIONS BECOME
LESS SPOTTY MIGHT HAVE TO HOIST SOMETHING WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS OVER THE
PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECTING SOME MORE GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL, AND MORE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS THURS-FRI, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THAT, SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO MAY ACTUALLY SEE
SOME SHOWERS, THOUGH THEY'LL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
EVEN SO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
AS THE FRONT BRINGS IN STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
LOOKING INTO AND BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF OF THE CA COAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR DETAILS TO CHANGE, BUT INITIAL THOUGHTS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER, WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY BET A
BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-225-
229-230.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH
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