590
FXUS65 KPUB 032035
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
- DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT LESSENS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY, WITH PASSING FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.
- A SLOW INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR AND GOES SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WAVE
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH VERY
DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE WITH DEW PTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. FURTHER EAST, A PASSING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BOOSTED DEW PTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, THOUGH MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW PTS INTO THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEW PTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. DEW PTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS BACA COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS SAID EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS LEE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
ALLOWS FOR ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST MTNS
AND IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH, COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD FOR ONGOING FIRES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AS THE WAVES
ASSOCIATED FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BEHIND SAID
FRONT COULD ALSO DEVELOP A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE PALMER DVD LATER
TONIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MTNS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AID
IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
CONTINUE OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE. FURTHER WEST, AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED,
THOUGH WITH WEAKENING FLOW, ONLY SEEING SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES WHICH
COULD SPARK A FIRE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FOR SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL DATA
DEVELOPS WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLOW MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INITIALLY BE HIGHER BASED,
POSING A DRY LIGHTING THREAT AND THE RISK FOR MORE FIRE STARTS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATES PWATS INCREASING TO
100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINS, HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEW AREA BURN
SCARS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT COS AND PUB TO BECOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY INTO THE LATE EVENING, WITH EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT
ALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, VALLEYS AND ADJACENT PLAINS, AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST, A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EASTERN COLORADO, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
HIGHER BASED, POSING A DRY LIGHTING THREAT AND THE RISK FOR MORE
FIRE STARTS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA
INDICATES PWATS INCREASING TO 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS, HOWEVER, THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEW AREA BURN SCARS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ220>230.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page