648  
FXUS65 KPUB 060513  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1113 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS, EAST INTO TELLER  
AND EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY  
TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING  
AREA, WITH STRONGER STORMS DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE  
REGION. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH  
HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH 9 PM  
BEFORE DISSIPATING AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
   
..A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TOMORROW
 
 
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KPUX RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON IS  
CLEARING INDICATING AN MCV SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY,  
WHICH HAS HELPED TO TURN MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW MORE  
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH THE CENTER OF  
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME.  
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SCATTERED STORMS MOVING SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE MCV ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SPC MESO  
ANALYSIS DATA AS OF 2 PM HAS MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG  
ACROSS THE AREA, GREATEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH  
MLCIN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATES THE MORE  
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE  
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND ENDING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE  
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WITH THAT SAID, BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TO  
STAY WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CAN'T  
TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PUSHING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND  
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS, LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, LEADING  
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR  
STORMS DEVELOPING OR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BURN SCARS. GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
STRONGER STORMS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS,  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
AREA AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE  
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEARING  
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS LOOK TO BE AROUND  
SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRIER AIR BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE  
WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, AS THE  
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE  
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH STRONG SUMMER SUNSHINE, TO  
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN OVER AND NEAR THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA, HOWEVER INDICATE THESE  
STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX  
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE  
MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LESS MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FURTHER EAST  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, MODELS INDICATING WARMING ALOFT WILL  
LIKELY KEEP THE PLAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH THE  
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES TO WARM  
BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE 70S AND 80S  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S AT THE PEAKS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
GLENN FREY SANG, 'THE HEAT IS ON'. HE WAS SINGING ABOUT THIS  
UPCOMING WEEK IN SOUTHERN COLORADO, LOOK IT UP. BEYOND TUESDAY THE  
FORECAST LOOKS BLEAK IN TERMS OF THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE HEAT  
REALLY HEATS UP. FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
TUESDAY...MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH RAIN EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, NORTH OF US HIGHWAY  
160. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY... THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD EACH DAY WITH  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ENTERING FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING CLOSE TO 600DM HEIGHTS  
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THAT IS A PRETTY BIG AND ROBUST  
HEAT DOME. TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROBABLY  
BACK INTO PUEBLO JUST ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON. COULD BE LOOKING AT A  
FEW DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS LATER THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NOT SEEING A  
TREMENDOUSLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE THREAT  
AS THE WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR EACH DAY. THAT BEING SAID,  
WITH THE HEAT AND DRYNESS WE'LL BE SEEING, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES  
LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10-15%.  
 
-HEAV  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT  
ALL THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING  
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE  
POSSIBLE NEAR KALS AND KCOS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
OCCURRENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOZLEY  
SHORT TERM...MW  
LONG TERM...HEAVENER  
AVIATION...MOZLEY  
 
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