003
FXUS65 KPUB 270458
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
958 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MID NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
MIXING DOWN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH 60S FOR MOST OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET AND
HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVERING INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND TEENS AND 20S
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
FRIDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
MIX DOWN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES PRODUCING HIGH FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, TELLER AND FREMONT
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY PUSH, WITH AREAS
EAST OF I-25 LIKELY REMAINING EASTERLY LIGHTER WINDS. OVERALL,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH DIFFERENCES IN TRACK,
WHILE THE CANADIAN VERY SLOW AND THE BIG OUTLIER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FLATTEN
ACROSS COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. A COUPLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW,
HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE MUCH WEAKER, AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM HAS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, ECMWF AND
VARIOUS AI VERSIONS, WHILE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS VERY SLOW
WITH THE STORM EJECTION FROM UTAH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS MORE CLOSED WITH AN UPPER LOW, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE
OPEN. A SECONDARY SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE ECMWF AND GFS, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
MONDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE WRAPPED UP, AND
GENERATES MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM, WITH LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION TYPE
MORE LIKELY RAIN. THE SECONDARY SYSTEM LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH
NEWER MODEL RUNS FOR FRIDAY, WITH DIURNAL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND
EASTERLIES LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR KCOS AND KPUB. FEW TO SCATTERED
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ221-222-
227>230.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR
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