706
FXUS65 KPUB 090001
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
501 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATABASE FOR EXPIRATION OF
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
INCORPORATED LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL DATA. MOORE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES.
2. SEASONALLY MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
TONIGHT...
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS MOVED ON TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING DRY AND GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
AWAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LOOSEN UP AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES COMES RADIATIONAL COOLING, LEAVING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON
THE COLD SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE PLAINS AND
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH
ALAMOSA GOING AS LOW AS MINUS 1 DEGREE.
FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH
WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, IN HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, DRY WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN OVER RATON PASS, CAUSING DOWNSLOPING, BRINGING
WARMER AND DRIER GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE FROM 12 NOON TO 6 PM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SOME LOWERED
HUMIDITIES MOSTLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT THE WIND GUSTS WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW OVER A VERY SMALL POTION OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF LAKE COUNTY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S IN THE PLAINS, AND
MOSTLY 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
-RISER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.
2) HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO START ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3) THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY:
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO PASS OVERHEAD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD (5PM FRIDAY). THE ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME LINGERING GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND 8PM OR SO. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. THE VERY WEAK POST FRONTAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A
SMALL AMOUNT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE 30S TO 40S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY:
SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND A LEE CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL, AT BEST, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS JUST IN CASE THE
WINDS INCREASE WHICH WOULD LIKELY DECREASE RH VALUES AS WELL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A LEE
CYCLONE FORMING ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, WHICH
BRINGS UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EARLY LONG TERM MODELS
ARE KEEPING RH VALUES RIGHT AROUND 15%, BUT I CAN IMAGINE THOSE
VALUES DROPPING AS HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA STARTS COMING IN, UNLESS
A MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM THE UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S AIR
MASS PUSHES IN TOO QUICKLY. THE SPC FIRE DESK HAS US OUTLINED FOR
A 40% OUTLOOK FOR OUR PLAINS.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING MONDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL ADVECT
MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS WITH EPS SIGMA VALUES OF PWAT OF
AROUND 2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THAT PERIOD
WILL RANGE UP TO AROUND 1 FOOT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BANDS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COLORADO, AND BY
TUESDAY MORNING A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER OUR EASTERN
PLAINS AND QUICKLY PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, WHICH WILL BRING IN THE
CONVERSATION OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS DUE
TO A TROWAL DEVELOPING. THE WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE TROWAL WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
THIS PRESENTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A VERY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SCENARIO
WHERE BLOWING SNOW, DRIFTING SNOW, AND LOW VISIBILITY MAY RESULT IN
VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. NOW AS FOR FORECAST VARIABILITY...
THERE ISN'T A BUNCH, WHICH GIVES THIS FORECAST A LITTLE BIT MORE
CERTAINTY. LOOKING AT THE CLUSTER MEAN PAGE BY WPC... THE BINS
CREATED BY THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY PASSAGE, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MORE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL OF THIS IS FAIRLY
PRELIMINARY, BUT THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST ENSEMBLES IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTCOME.
THURSDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUOUS NORTHERLY FLOW REINFORCING COLD AIR
OVER THE REGION. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, BUT PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS, DUE TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT ALL 3 TAF STATIONS, KALS, KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCOS AND KPUB.
KALS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND 18Z THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-RISER
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ229-230-233.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...RISER/PGW
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RISER/PGW
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