598  
FXUS65 KPUB 171040  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
440 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD  
INTO UT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WV SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MID/UPPER  
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS NW NM INTO THE 4 CORNERS  
REGION WITH THE UPPER JET. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS AND AREA RADARS SHOW  
A CONTINUAL FEED OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED  
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SO WHILE IT ISN'T A PARTICULARLY DEEP TAP  
OF MOISTURE, THERE IS SOME SATURATION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SEEING SOME METARS WITH REPORTS OF -  
SN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND WHILE WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING  
MUCH ACCUMULATION YET, HAVE FOUND A COUPLE SITES DOWN AROUND  
HESPERUS SHOWING SOME SNOW. WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HONED IN ON A  
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD IT LOOKS MORE  
LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE BEST  
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH  
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS  
AND LA GARITAS. SANGRE DE CRISTOS COULD SEE AROUND 1-3 INCHES WITH  
GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES CREST. OTHER MOUNTAINS  
TODAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
SHOULD STAY UNDER AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SPREADS UP  
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD BE  
SPOTTY.  
 
SOUTHERN CO STAYS UNDER THE WAA SIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH TONIGHT.  
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MILD TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AS UPGLIDE INTENSIFIES AGAIN TOWARDS 12Z. COULD SEE SOME  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT IN ALL MODELS AND THERE ARE STILL  
SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THIS WILL SPREAD.  
EITHER WAY THOUGH, SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE  
SUSPECT THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE  
PALMER DIVIDE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND  
POTENTIALLY FOG TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY,  
BUT MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS DETAIL. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER  
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. -KT  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW  
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  
AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO INTO FRIDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES  
OF UPPER RIDGING THEN PROJECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO  
FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
THEN, NEXT APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO UTAH BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UNSETTLED  
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(INITIALLY FAVORING WESTERN LOCATIONS)  
FROM LATER MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.  
 
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, HAVE DEPICTED THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN  
ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE  
10KFT(FAVORING CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LOCATIONS AND ESPECIALLY THE  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS) FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  
ELSEWHERE, LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF  
EXPERIENCING RAIN SHOWERS, FAVORING FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS  
THURSDAY(ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION,  
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.  
 
A DRY NORTHERLY SURGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN  
LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THEN  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CWA FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO MONDAY, AS UPPER  
RIDGING INTERACTS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE  
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.  
 
METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A RETURN OF UNSETTLED  
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FROM LATER MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS  
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FINALLY, WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE  
REALIZED FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS  
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL THREE TERMINALS TODAY WITH INCREASING  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS  
LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER IN KPUB THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL STILL RANGE  
AROUND 10-15 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AT KALS AT TIMES TODAY, AND AT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 06Z  
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
THAT TERMINALS WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED SO WILL LIMIT MENTION TO  
VCSH. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO  
DEVELOP OVER KCOS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON  
THE PALMER DIVIDE. WILL INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE 12Z TAFS AS THINK  
LIKELIHOOD IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. THESE MAY PERSIST  
THROUGH 18Z THURS AT KCOS. CIGS AT KPUB AND KALS WILL LIKELY STAY  
IN THE VFR CATEGORY BUT COULD DIP TO NEAR THE MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS  
MORNING. -KT  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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