378
FXUS65 KPUB 210508
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1008 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS PERSISTING
BOTH DAYS.
- A PERIOD OF PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF RAIN, SNOW, AND RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENTLY...FLAT, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW COVER,
WITH LOWER 40S FROM TRINIDAD, NORTHEAST THROUGH LA JUNTA. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW MID TO
UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET, DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LEE SLOPES WITH LOWER 30S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH SNOW FREE AREAS
INTO THE 50S, WITH SNOW COVERED AREAS REMAIN IN THE 40S. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..
NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE BANANA
BELT THANKS TO GENTLE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. MODELS BRING THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HELPING US TO WARM BACK INTO THE 50S
AND LOW 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM,
THOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS AND INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY, AS A LOW BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WE REMAIN IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE BANANA BELT, ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS. MOST OF OUR PLAINS LOOK
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WARMING INTO THE
50S, AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND AROUND 9 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
OUR PLAINS, THOUGH WE ARE STILL AT LEAST 6 DEGREES OR SO SHY OF ANY
RECORDS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, THOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THOUGH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN SOME PLACES.
WITH 45 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 35 MPH GAP FLOW
WINDS, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL FIRE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN SANGRES AND OUR
GAP FLOWS THROUGH HUERFANO COUNTY. THAT SAID, WITH ALL OF THE RECENT
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS, FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
SINCE FUELS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..
MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, WHICH
LOOKS TO BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR OUR CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY BY
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND COLD FRONTS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK, AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN OUR SNOW FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE WE'LL SEE OUR FIRST COLD FRONT ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
THIS FORECAST KEPT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE LOOK TO DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BUT MOSTLY
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL
DOWN AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING IN LATE TUESDAY. LULLS IN
MOUNTAIN SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN WAVES, THOUGH IT SEEMS THAT
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE FAIRLY CONTINUOUS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
MUCH IS UNCERTAIN FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT EITHER ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE, LOW, OR OPEN WAVE MOVING OVER COLORADO DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME, IT SEEMS LIKELY (60-70%) THAT WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS,
WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WIND CYCLE UNDER 10 KTS PERSISTING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page