354
FXUS65 KPUB 041924
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH, AND SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, DOWN TO
ABOUT 6 KFT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MID
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL, WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND 40S OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT,
WHILE THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
FORCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
30S AND 40S. THIS COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING. TEENS AND 20S ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO BY LATE MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER
10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE,
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BOTH EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES SAW DECENT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES REMAINED
DRY WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THURSDAY EVENING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, SNOW RATES LOOK
MINOR, WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO
THE PALMER DIVIDE BY THE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RRFS,
NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAST WITH PRECIPITATION, FORCING IT SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH. THE GFS IS SLOWER, AND LIMITS PRECIPITATION
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE GFS LOOKING LIKE AN OUTLIER, BLENDED WITH
THE RRFS, NAM AND ECMWF, WITH RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON WHEN IT STARTS. EARLY
TIMING MAY KEEP THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN LONGER, THEN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY THE
EVENING. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, TELLER COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK 2
TO 5 INCHES, WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6 KFT SEEING AN INCH OR TWO
BY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON FRONTAL TIMING, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH MOSTLY 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS, WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, BEGINNING SUNDAY, AND PREVAILING EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ222-
224>237.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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