543
FXUS65 KPUB 080457
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1057 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE PUEBLO/COLORADO SPRINGS/CANON
CITY AREAS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 105 POSSIBLE FROM PUEBLO EASTWARD BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY (JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS/SPRINKLES), THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN MOST AREAS BY
MID WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CURRENTLY, CENTER OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER HIGH SLOWLY PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR SOME WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN SANGRES. OVERALL,
SURFACE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY DRIER THAN 24 HRS AGO, SUGGESTING
MOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK, WITH SPRINKLES/WIND/OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THE MAIN STORM
FEATURES. WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR FREMONT/PUEBLO
COUNTIES INTO THE EVENING, WITH KPUB GUSTING 15-20 MPH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND HRRR SHOWING INCREASED WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO
THE 25 MPH THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING, THOUGH SUSPECT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL END UP BEING RATHER SPOTTY AND BRIEF.
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 4
CORNERS OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SOME OF THE HOTTEST AIR OF
THE SUMMER INTO THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS MID-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS OVERHEAD, WHILE WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH
PROVIDES A DOWNSLOPE BOOST TO MAXES ON THE PLAINS. COULD SEE
SOME READINGS OVER 105F BOTH SAT/SUN FROM PUEBLO EAST TO LAMAR,
WITH SAT LOOKING HOTTEST AT THIS POINT AS DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT
APPEARS SLIGHTLY STRONGER. WE'LL LIKELY MIX DEEP ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT
MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH WITH SURFACE LAYER VERY DRY (POTENTIALLY
60 PLUS DEGF DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS) AND CLOUD LEVELS VERY HIGH
(15K-18K FT), MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE VIRGA/WIND AND SPRINKLES AT
BEST, AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES BACK EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO ON SUNDAY, AND EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/STRENGTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED GUSTY
WIND/LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, THOUGH RAINFALL WILL STILL BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY AT BEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS SLOWLY MON/TUE, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO SRN PLAINS FROM WED INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES SLOWLY AT FIRST, WITH A
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MON/TUE AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS EASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN HOT, THOUGH READINGS WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY DOWNWARD
EACH DAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS FALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME MORE SLY, BRINGING BACK
A FAIRLY CLASSIC LATE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN TO THE REGION.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT A POTENTIAL FRONT ON THE PLAINS LATE WEEK
AS WELL, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE A WET/ACTIVE PERIOD THU INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT, AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER FRESH MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/HIGH BASED VIRGA WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
THOUGH ODDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA OR EVEN VCSH AT OR NEAR THE TERMINALS IS
VERY LOW. THEREFORE, HAVE TRIED TO TIME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS VIA
TEMPO GROUPS, THOUGH WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON LOCATION OF SHOWERS TO THE TERMINAL AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN DURING SATURDAY EVENING. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ083>086-
089-093-097-098.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>086-089-
093-097-098.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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