981  
FXUS65 KPUB 282325  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
525 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND  
TOMORROW, MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  
 
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FROM SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLOW RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER  
WEATHER DEVELOPING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES  
OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST  
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAS  
RESULTED IN DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED  
WITH DEW POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE 50S, THIS WILL RESULT IN 1000-  
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN AS THEY MOVE  
EASTWARD INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER CAPE. HAIL UP TO  
AROUND 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY  
STORM RISKS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. AS  
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT, CAMS HAVE BEEN  
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
PIKES PEAK REGION/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND  
DROPPING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT. CELLS SHOULD BE ELEVATED BUT COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED  
STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN MUCAPES UP TO 750 J/KG ACCORDING TO HREF.  
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND  
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND  
FOG SHOULD WE SEE ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS. MODELS HOLD ON TO QUITE A  
BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT, SO THINK THIS WILL BE  
VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF IT DOES DEVELOP.  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MORE WELL  
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH  
MAINTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN MEAN HREF  
CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE 40-50 KTS  
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL UP  
TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. HIGH RES  
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS (MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN  
TODAY'S) DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,  
AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS  
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
-KT  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...  
 
MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
LINGER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS, AND  
WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY, THOUGH MANY FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK NORTH  
WIND AROUND 12Z, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY  
CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO  
THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WE WILL LIKELY  
SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG  
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY  
POSSIBLE. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS RETAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND EXPECT THE USUAL ROUND OF  
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY/MID AFTERNOON,  
THEN MOVING E-SE THOUGH THE PLAINS BY EVENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY (CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40  
KTS) FOR STRONG STORMS FROM I-25 EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH IF  
COOL AIR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS ON THE PLAINS  
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, STORMS COULD STRUGGLE TO  
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
SUNDAY ONWARDS..  
 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION SUN-TUE, WHICH  
SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD, THOUGH WE'LL LIKELY RECYCLE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE A UPTICK IN STORMS ALONG THE NM BY LATE MON  
INTO TUE AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK NORTH, THOUGH WITH DEEPEST  
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA, THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND  
STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LIMITED. HIGH TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB  
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO EXTREME  
HEAT IS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN U.S.  
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE DEEP TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CO MID-WEEK (WED-ISH), BRINGING COOLER  
AIR BACK TO AT LEAST THE PLAINS AND ERN MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH  
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A FEW STORMS SLIPPING  
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LATE WED ONTO THU, HELPED ALONG BY  
POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE  
TERMINAL. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON NEAR 10 TO 12 KTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ONE HITTING THE  
TERMINAL.  
 
KCOS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE  
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF  
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS AS THEY PASS THE TERMINAL. LOW STRATUS WILL  
THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CIGS DOWN  
NEAR 1 KFT. A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY FROM  
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 
KPUB...LOW PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT THE  
TERMINAL THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT  
SOMETHING WILL HIT THE TERMINAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ON FRIDAY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KT  
LONG TERM...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...MOZLEY  
 
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