528
FXUS65 KPUB 051022
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY AS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASES.
2) FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK OVER THE BURN SCARS.
TODAY...
ANOTHER WARM, WET DAY IS AHEAD OF US, FUELED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AS A LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF OF THE NW COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO HELP INITIATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MOSTLY
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AREA. LATEST
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING A BIT EARLIER THAN
NORMAL IN THE DAY, LIKELY AT OR JUST BEFORE NOON. INSTABILITY VARIES
ACROSS THE CWA DEPENDING ON WHICH CAM YOU FOLLOW, BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MOST OF THE GOOD CAPE TO BE STUCK OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BETWEEN ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG, PLENTY TO INITIATIVE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR, AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
LOW-LEVEL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN STORM ENVIRONMENTS AND THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE 20
OR 30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR OUT TODAY. BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A BIG CONCERN TODAY, WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, AND THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAIN. MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS STORMS FIRING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURNED AREAS. MAIN AREAS TO WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SPRING, DECKER, AND HAYDEN BURN SCARS,
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THEM WILL BE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO FORM OUT EAST NEAR THE CO-KS
BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THOSE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, GIVEN THE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH MID-70S OVER THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MID-HIGH 90S OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
SIMILARLY TO TODAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DRIFT TOWARDS I-25 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE-AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN, HOVERING NEAR TUESDAY'S HIGHS.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVERHEAD, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW OVERHEAD. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SERVE AS THE
IGNITION MECHANISMS FOR CONTINUED DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSISTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
PRODUCING BETTER INSTABILITY. BENEATH THE RIDGE, AT THE MID-LEVELS,
FLOW STILL APPEARS MOSTLY WEAK AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT HINTS AND THE CONTINUED CONCERN FOR BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOODING DURING EACH AFTERNOONS' ROUND OF STORMS. HOWEVER,
STORM COVERAGE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK APPEARS MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED, WHICH MAKES THE BURN SCARS LESS LIKELY TO GET HIT. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF
COOLDOWN INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY-SATURDAY, WITH
ANOTHER WARMUP BACK INTO THE 90S AROUND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
INCREASED.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING IN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO HEAT US UP AND DRY US OUT
SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH FURTHER DISTURBANCES TO THE FLOW ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED MONSOONAL TREND OF DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TIME WILL TELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY THOUGH DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
SO WE CONTINUE THE VCSH/VCTS WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE
MONDAY, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP, EITHER WITHIN THE STORMS THEMSELVES OR
OUTFLOW DRIVEN. STILL NEED TO WAIT TO ADD THAT KIND OF DETAIL TO THE
TAFS, THOUGH THE IMPACT IS CERTAINLY THERE TODAY...AGAIN. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS DECAY BY LATE EVENING LEAVING A LIGHT NORTH
BREEZE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HEAVENER
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