300  
FXUS65 KPUB 222326  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
426 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS  
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  
 
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 
- A DYNAMIC PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK, BRINING INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, STRONG WINDS, AND ADDITIONAL CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
CURRENTLY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY  
SPREADING FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE HIGHWAY 50  
CORRIDOR OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SPOTTY IN NATURE,  
AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH (~130 J/KG) THAT A COUPLE RUMBLES  
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOW  
PELLETS AND RAIN HAVE BEEN THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE, EVEN WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID  
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS  
VALLEY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS OUT NEAR THE KANSAS  
BORDER, AND UNDER THE SHOWERS.  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN  
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, CLEARING INTO  
KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK  
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH  
OF HIGHWAY 50. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE  
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN TRICKY, WITH AREAS ABOVE 6  
KFT LIKELY SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PELLETS. AREAS BELOW 6 KFT  
ARE WARM ENOUGH AND DEWPOINTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SEE ALL RAIN. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, AFTER WHICH  
INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AND THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO EXIT THE  
REGION. ONCE WE GET PAST SUNSET, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE,  
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS,  
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  
 
FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE  
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT  
SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT THE FORECAST  
DRY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAY BE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS  
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. BUT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS, IT  
WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE EVEN LIGHT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A  
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE 50S, AND 40S  
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: FOR THE WEEKEND, A RELATIVELY QUIET  
STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE  
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FORCING  
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN, DRY CONDITION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.  
THE BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST  
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, AS GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR, AND THEREFORE LOW  
HUMIDITY VALUES, OVERSPREAD THIS PART OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.  
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED FOR  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES, MUCH OF THE REGION  
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE FEBRUARY,  
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.  
 
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER  
RETURNS TO THE AREA. A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL MATERIALIZE AS A DIGGING  
TROUGH AND THE POLAR/SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAMS INFLUENCE THE AREA.  
OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE  
AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, WHERE FORCING  
WILL BE GREATEST. THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH THAT ALL  
SAID THOUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGER FORCING  
PUSH EASTWARD. ALONG WITH THAT, A WINDY FEW DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR  
THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAMS START TO INTERACT LATE  
MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY, STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
MATERIALIZE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY, WHERE  
THERE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM (40-59%) CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 50  
MPH. THEN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AS GUSTY  
NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT. FINALLY, ALONG WITH ALL OF THAT, NEAR TO SPOTTY CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS  
PERIOD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH MOSTLY MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, AS THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AND MODESTLY DRY AIR REMAINS  
IN PLACE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE CLASSIC "ROLLER COASTER"  
TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM.  
THEN WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OVER AND SHOVES A COLD  
FRONT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN  
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW  
SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND  
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING  
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL KEEP VCSH IN BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAFS  
UNTIL AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING. KCOS COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS  
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AND EASTERLY  
TOMORROW AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY  
LONG TERM...SIMCOE  
AVIATION...EHR  
 
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