262
FXUS65 KPUB 090615
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1215 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY - WARM AGAIN THEN COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IN AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG
FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
- PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON GAP FLOW
AREAS AND PARTS OF SAN LUIS VALLEY.
- MUCH COOLER FRIDAY; SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG MTNS/PLAINS
INTERFACE AND ALONG CO/NM BORDER.
- SATURDAY, WARM AND WINDY WITH PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSRA
- SUN AND MON - CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE
PLAINS.
- COOLER/UNSETTLED REGION-WIDE TUE AND WED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURE-WISE, BUT WE MAY SEE
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS/EAST
SLOPES OF MTNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW STRONGER STORMS OUT NEAR THE BORDER, MAINLY BEING A WIND THREAT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF WE DO SEE SOME STORMS LATER TODAY, THEY
SHOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LIKELY LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
FRIDAY...
COOL ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE MUCH CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MORNING BUT PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT
ADD UP TO MUCH. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
OVERALL, IT SHOULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AS A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA
MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND WINDY ON
SATURDAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD BE ON THE MOIST-SIDE AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE LOW. ONCE AGAIN WE COULD SEE A
QUICK MOVING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF POPS SHOULD BE OVER THE MTNS AND
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS FIRST
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE TREELINE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS, MAINLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS, AS STRONG SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
HUMIDLY VALUES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY (<10% RH, WINDS 30-45 MPH)).
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGHER-END CRITICAL FIRE SITUATION ON
BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESI AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MOVING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR ROBUST HIGH
LONGITUDINAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THAT IT WILL
GET COOLER OVER THE REGION AND THE MTNS SHOULD GET SOME SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT (IT DOES APPEAR IT IS MOVING RATHER SLOW AND
THE TROUGH IS LAGGING BEHIND). HOPEFULLY THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A MORE
TENDENCY TO CLOSE OFF AND THE PLAINS GETS SOME DECENT PRECIP WITH
IT. TIME WILL TELL. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE
STATIONS, KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL
BRING IN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 00Z AT
KCOS AND KPUB. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KCOS AND EAST OF KPUB LATE IN
THE PERIOD, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF (LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT).
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...EHR/KT
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