106
FXUS65 KPUB 242313
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND LASTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WHICH RAISES FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE BURN
SCARS AND SATURATED SOILS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN SOUTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LESS COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY IN GENERAL, WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT
PERIOD. THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS THAT THERE IS SHOULD BE A EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER ALL
THE GUIDANCE HAS THE STORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE PLAINS - THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT QUITE STRONGLY, HAVING A STARK
DEW POINT DEPRESSION. SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON IF
THE MIXING DOES HAPPEN, IF IT DOESN'T THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW A STRONGER SLUG OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES OUR
MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL BE DISTINCTLY NOTICEABLE BY THE GENERAL
CLOCKWISE MOTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION - LOOK AT
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA TOMORROW TO SEE THE MOTION. THE
EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, HOWEVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE EARLY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT, WE HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WILLOW AND ASPEN ACRES BURN SCARS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR EITHER.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MID-90S TO AROUND 105F OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER 80S TO 90S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
WE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11AM - 9PM ON SATURDAY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT, PUEBLO, AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TO EAST-SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVEN HOTTER THAN TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS. WE
HAVE A HIGH FORECAST OF 108F OVER LAMAR, 104F OVER PUEBLO, 97F
OVER COLORADO SPRINGS, AND 90F OVER ALAMOSA. SOME OF THE MORE
EXTREME MOS GUIDANCE OUT THERE HAS THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, BUT THAT IS AVERAGED OUT BY THE OTHER MODELS. WE ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11AM - 9PM ON SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT, PUEBLO, EL PASO, OTERO, BENT, PROWERS,
AND KIOWA COUNTIES.
WITH THE SLOW PROPAGATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITTING OVER
US, THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTS WITH IT BRINGING HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EACH DAY THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OVER OUR BURN SCARS. WITH
THE INFLUX IN MOISTURE, IT'LL BE IMPORTANT TO TRACK THE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT AS FLASH FLOODING ISSUES MAY EXPAND TO SOILS WITH
MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK - SO
INSTEAD OF 100S OVER THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE THE MID TO UPPER
90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND
KALS THROUGH 01-02Z. WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL BECOME
DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH KPUB SEEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 01Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-20 KTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY,
THOUGH MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT KALS IF
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS GAINED. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ083>086.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ083>086-093-
095>098.
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...KT
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