786
FXUS65 KPUB 042124
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS WEAK ENERGY HAS PRODUCED PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GETTING TO
AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THAT SAID, THE WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY IS
ANTICIPATED TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS
TOMORROW...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY AROUND MIDDAY, BRINGING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EVEN DRIER AIR, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY, SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEREFORE, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND PUEBLO NORTH ARE ANTICIPATED TO TAKE LONGER TO MIX OUT THAN
THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHICH MEANS THESE AREAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, HAVE DECIDED TO FREMONT AND SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES OUT OF
THE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN THESE AREAS, BUT JUST NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE WARNING. USE EXTREME
CAUTION WITH ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 60S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN ON MONDAY, WITH TROUGH/UPPER
LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH AGAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MON
AFTERNOON, AND WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. DEWPOINTS REALLY TANK BY
AFTERNOON, WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS AND RH ALONG AND EAST OF
I-25. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
FREMONT COUNTY, THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS ZONES
ALONG THE NM BORDER FOR MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADDING AREAS FARTHER NORTH, AS SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS
ALOFT WEAKEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. MAX TEMPS WILL
SOAR WITH MIXING AND MID LEVEL WARMING, AND A FEW NEAR 80F
READINGS LOOK LIKELY ON THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SLIGHTLY
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUE AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, THOUGH WITH SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPS CHANGING LITTLE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM/BREEZY AND DRY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY VERSUS MON, WHICH MAY LESSEN THE THREAT. MAX
TEMPS AGAIN SOME 10F-15F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.
STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE FATE AND ULTIMATE
EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW, AS 12Z GFS
REMAINS ON THE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
WHILE 12Z ECMWF IS NEARLY TWO DAYS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. IN
MOST SOLUTIONS, NRN STREAM WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU, LEADING TO MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
INTO THU, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
PRECIP TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED NIGHT/THU, WITH
FASTER GFS THEN PUSHING A WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE REGION THU MORNING. GFS SNOW LEVEL FALLS BELOW 6K FEET THU
MORNING, WHILE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. SLOWER EURO IS MUCH
SLOWER AND LIGHTER WITH IT'S PRECIP THU, KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICS SOUTH, WHILE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A BROADBRUSH OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA THU/FRI, WHICH
IS GOOD FOR A FIRST GUESS, BUT WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED AS THE
EVENT MOVES CLOSER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES (KALS, KCOS, KPUB)
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KALS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WHILE WINDS AT KCOS
AND KPUB ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ224-228>233-
235-237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ222-224-228>230-233-237.
SHORT TERM...CARLBERG
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CARLBERG
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