120
FXUS65 KPUB 151123
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ON OUR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- NEW FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGH
BASED CONVECTION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME MID-LVEL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH COUNTRY, WHICH MAY HELP TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED WEAK
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE PLAINS, WEAK UPSLOPE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CAMS CONTINUE TO PAINT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MORE
INSTABILITY (AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE) OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS, WHICH MAY HELP TO DEVELOP A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER BACA
AND PROWERS COUNTIES NEAR SUNSET. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC CURRENTLY HAS BACA AND PORTIONS OF
PROWERS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ON TOP OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, FIRE STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, AS CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY HIGH BASED. INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
ARE SHOWING NEARLY 1800 J/KG OF DCAPE ON OUR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TOMORROW. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, NOT ONLY WILL DRY LIGHTNING BE
POSSIBLE, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY NEAR ANY NEW STARTS. AT
THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW
GIVEN THE LACK OF SUSTAINED 25 MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN ANY GIVEN
PLACE, AS WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE WEAK TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
70S OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, TO 80S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR, TO 90S ON
OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SATURDAY..
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
ENOUGH TO LIKELY WARRANT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. FOR NOW,
SATURDAY'S FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 222
FREMONT COUNTY, AND STILL INCLUDES THE SANGRES AND ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND
WINDY, BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED NON-CRITICAL, SO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
NOT PLANNED FOR THIS ZONE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, AND THE RATON MESA CLIMBING IN TO THE 80S, AND MOST OF
THE REST OF THE PLAINS WARMING INTO THE 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES,
BUT BEST MOISTURE STICKS FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE LA GARITAS, THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, FREMONT COUNTY, AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR SATURDAY.
STORMS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE LOOK TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY, WHICH KEEPS US IN STRONG, DRY, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ALL OF OUR PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME, FUELS ARE NON-CRITICAL FOR OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION MAY HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FORE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES THAN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT ALL ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL
LIKELY BE DRY ENOUGH TO NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. MODELS FINALLY BRING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THOUGH, WHICH HELPS TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK
HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW, BEST PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ON THE PLAINS. MODELS WARM US UP SLOWLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-225-229-230-233-237.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page