724
FXUS65 KPUB 160002
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES,
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT.
- MILD DAY ON MONDAY.
- HEAT WAVE BEGINS TUESDAY, LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND, RECORD TO
HISTORIC MAX TEMPS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR EXPIRATION OF THE BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM, AND THE HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS THERE HAVE DECREASED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT ARE
STILL RATHER STRONG, SO AM HESITANT TO DROP EARLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
REST OF TODAY...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ABATING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS, WINDS WILL KEEP UP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE. AS FOR THE SNOW, EXPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO LINGER OVER THE SPANISH PEAK REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.
OF METEOROLOGICAL INTEREST, WE MAY HAVE HAD A STRATOSPHERIC FOLDING
EVENT OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION, AS DEWPOINTS SUDDENLY CRASHED
ACROSS THE GREATER SAN LUIS VALLEY REGION, AND LOOKING AT PLOTS OF
DEWPTS ACROSS THE WEST US, NOTICEABLE DECREASES HAVE ALSO OCCURRED
FROM E UTAH AND SW AND S COLORADO.
IT IS GOING TO BE VERY COLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 10S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
PLAINS, AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MTNS.
FOR TOMORROW, IT IS GOING TO BE RATHER QUITE NICE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS, AND COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST AREAS BUT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER THE CENTRAL MTN REGIONS
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE MAIN WX CONCERN FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HISTORIC HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FEEL SUMMER-LIKE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND RECORDS ARE NEAR CERTAIN TO FALL. THERE WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE ALL-TIME MARCH MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
THE 3 PRIMARY ASOS SITES WILL ALSO FALL. MORE SPECIFICALLY...
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO IS 86. THE MAX TEMPS
FOR PUEBLO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
U80S TO L90S.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81. THE
MAX TEMPS FOR COLORADO SPRINGS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE FROM THE L80S TO M80S.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA IS 76. THE MAX TEMPS
FOR ALAMOSA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO
L80S.
MULTIPLE DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL FOR THE 3 TAF
SITES THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS WITH RESPECT TO THIS (LIKELY) HISTORIC HEAT WAVE
IS THAT THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE. HOWEVER, ONCE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, WE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH END RED FLAG EVENT (POSSIBLY NEXT SUNDAY??)
WITHOUT SAYING, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO
SATURDAY. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPPER LOW SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
PLACE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH APPROX. 03Z-05Z, THEN DECREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS. -SN AND FLURRIES REPORTED ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY CURRENTLY BUT PCPN SHOULD BE
COMING TO AN END BY 03Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
KCOS...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AT KCOS
AROUND 09Z AND LASTING 4-6 HRS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE TAF, BUT WILL MONITOR.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ089-
093>099.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
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