024  
FXUS65 KPUB 171719  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1119 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH COVERAGE IS  
LIKELY TO BE MORE LIMITED.  
 
- WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS,  
WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A FREEZE.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 836 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FROST  
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. STILL ON TRACK FOR A  
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY FROST POSSIBLE  
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD  
FROST/FREEZE WILL COME SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. MOORE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH  
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SILL HAVE A FEW HOURS THIS  
MORNING WITH FROST POTENTIAL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHERN EL  
PASO COUNTY AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES DIP TO AROUND  
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  
TROUGH AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS, TEMPERATURES  
TODAY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THE  
GREATEST COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR ALL AREAS.  
 
AS THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT,  
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH  
COUNTRY TO INCREASE. SHOULD SEE SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS  
SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND  
SAWATCH RANGE TOWARDS MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES  
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE BANANA BELT REGIONS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE  
ANOTHER CRISP COOL NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS, DECOUPLED  
INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND EASTERN PLAINS AND WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH  
FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES SAT AM. PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO  
LOW (LESS THAN 15%) AND COVERAGE TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF  
FROST HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT. INCREASE WAVE CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO HELP  
KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED SOME. HOWEVER IT WILL BE ANOTHER CRISP  
COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND  
VALLEYS AND MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH  
CONTINUED LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE  
MAIN CHANGES ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE  
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE  
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH  
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL  
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLING IN  
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
COME IN COOLER, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE PLAINS WILL FALL TO  
NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS, AND WE MAY NEED FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS IF  
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER, OR REMAIN IN THE LOWER  
30S. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND EXPOSED HOSES AND  
PIPES MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING INTO  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS  
TO STAY MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF OUR WARNING AREA. WESTERLY AFTERNOON  
MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S ACROSS  
THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN GAP FLOW AREAS. OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS  
SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, INTO THE WET MOUNTAINS.  
THE GFS HAS A FEW 50 KT FLAGS AT 700 MB, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS  
STRONG AND IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID, AN ISOLATED  
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST ON MONDAY, WITH  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS  
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE, MAINLY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. UPPER RIDGING  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS WEAKENING.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO  
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND FROST WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE  
AREA ON TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO  
REMAIN MILD, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
SAN JUAN RANGE, AS FLOW ALOFT SWITCHING SOUTHWESTERLY.  
 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT LATE IN THE FORECAST  
PERIOD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS THE  
FASTEST SOLUTION, WITH A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH  
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE  
SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT FOR THE  
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE MOVING INTO  
THE ADJACENT PLAINS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS  
LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO COOL ON THE PLAINS,  
HOWEVER, NBM GUIDANCE IS WARM, AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WE  
MOVE FORWARD IN TIME. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND  
KALS. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE DIURNAL IN DIRECTION AND  
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS, THOUGH FOR KCOS AND KPUB WINDS WILL BECOME  
MORE N-NW AND INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH IN THE 15Z-  
17Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW MORNING.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOORE  
SHORT TERM...KT  
LONG TERM...MOORE  
AVIATION...MOORE  
 
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