867
FXUS65 KPUB 120710
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER/RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY ON THE PLAINS
- PERIOD OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
- HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY, THEN
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY, PATTERN WILL BRING STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION, WITH MAIN UPPER
JET NOSING INTO WRN CO THIS EVENING, THEN MIGRATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE ON MON. DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING, ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT, SHOULD GENERATE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, WITH MOUNTAIN GUSTS OVER
40 KTS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR WINDS ON MON AS UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND MADE NO
CHANGES, WHILE FOR MONDAY, UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING, BUT NO CHANGE TO THE AREA. CONSIDERED ADDING
SANGRES/WETS TO THE MON HIGHLIGHT, BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP HUMIDITY ABOVE THRESHOLD, SO HELD OFF ON A
HIGHLIGHT HERE FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH 80S ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
POTENTIAL HIGH FIRE DANGER AGAIN ON THE PLAINS TUES AS JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD UNTIL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUE EVENING. MAIN
QUESTION FOR FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TUE WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, WHICH AT LEAST A FEW 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP,
WITH FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT WE ALREADY HAVE 2 RED
FLAG WARNINGS ONGOING, WILL HOLD OFF THIS CYCLE ON A WATCH FOR
TUESDAY, THOUGH SUSPECT WE'LL NEED SOMETHING FOR AT LEAST
LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
SHOWERS DEVELOP MON NIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. NBM LOOKED RATHER AGGRESSIVE SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY TUE AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG WLY FLOW, SO TRIED TO
KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE INTERSTATE DURING THE
DAY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL SEE SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUE EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS EARLY, THEN TAPERING OFF
TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A FEW 00Z MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHTLY MORE WOUND
UP MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
ENHANCING PRECIP (RAIN AND SNOW) AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, THOUGH WON'T JUMP ON THIS SOLUTION YET, STAYING CLOSE
TO LOWER NBM POPS AND QPF FOR NOW.
MAINLY DRY (A FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN) AND A LITTLE COOLER ON WED BETWEEN SYSTEMS, THOUGH
SOME HINTS OF STRENGTHENING GAP FLOW AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS BEGIN TO APPEAR BY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE WLY. NEXT BIG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THU/FRI, THEN EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN DEVELOP,
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER BOTH THU AND FRI AS WARM AND
DRY AIR MASS RETURNS, ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW THEN POSSIBLE
LATE FRI INTO SAT AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS, THOUGH
TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS STILL A LITTLE NEBULOUS AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL THREE
STATIONS, KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35KT ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>222-
224-226>237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...EHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page