967
FXUS65 KPUB 172323
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HIGHER IMPACT WINTER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR THE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH SNOW FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND MAINLY
RAIN FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WAS PUSHING EAST INTO THE NE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WRAPPING AROUND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW COUPLED WITH A 90 KT UPPER JET WAS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTS OF 45-
55 MPH WERE REPORTED, THOUGH MOST GUSTS WERE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAS DWINDLED AS OF 1 PM,
WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 50S ALL THE WAY TO AROUND 70F FOR THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF CO WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO AFFECT THE STATE WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE. TEMPORARY RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
WESTERN CO TOMORROW.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM
THIS EVE, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHTER WINDS AND A SMATTERING
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO COOL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. PLAN ON PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN TONIGHT
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS OUR
NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME ONSHORE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THOUGH IMPACTS WILL BE SCARCE FOR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY THAT TIME. OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
MARK FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, LOW 60S FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION, MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW 70S FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. OUR FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SAN JUANS MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT LOW APPROACHES, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS CURRENT TRACK AND
TIMING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..
THOUGH MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF RUN-TO-RUN
AND MODEL-TO-MODEL DISAGREEMENT. IN PREVIOUS RUNS, GFS MEMBERS WERE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWED A CLOSED LOW WITH IDEAL PLACEMENT JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. NOW THAT MODEL IS NOW THE FURTHER NORTH AND IS A
WEAKER, MORE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION, THOUGH IT DOES CLOSE THE LOW OFF
AGAIN AS IT MOVES INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL, IT DOES SEEM
LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN, AND MEANINGFUL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. HEAVY SNOW MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON MESA,
ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING IF CURRENT FORECAST TIMING AND TRACK
REMAIN CONSISTENT. TIMING AND TRACK WILL OF COURSE BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR FOR OUR PLAINS FORECAST IN GENERAL, BUT AT THIS
TIME THE SYSTEM LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS. CURRENT TRENDS POINT TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND 40S FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY ONWARDS..
FOR NOW, OUR WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS. OF
COURSE, EITHER SYSTEM COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN AND CHANGE THAT,
BUT FOR NOW, OUR WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MAINLY DRY, QUIET WEATHER. MODELS HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
LESSEN AS DIURNAL MIXING SHUTS OFF FOR THE DAY, WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED OVER KCOS AND KPUB THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS LESSEN
BUT WINDS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE GROUND LEVEL REMAIN HEIGHTENED. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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