416
FXUS65 KPUB 150452
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCHES EXPANDED TO INCLUDE EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR THE ASPEN
ACRES BURN SCAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS SHEAR INCREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH.
- SLIGHT DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK THOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS MORE TO A NW FLOW REGIME
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN
SCAR AT 8PM. THERE ARE STILL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE BURN SCAR THROUGH 10 PM. RAIN
RATES ARE LIGHT WITH THESE SHOWERS, AND FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT
POSE A THREAT AT THIS TIME. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR DATA, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTHEAST TOWARDS BACA
COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION RESOLVED BY MODELS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE RUNNING 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACCORDING TO BLENDED TPW WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS NEXT
IMPULSE OF MOISTURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CAPE (UP
TO 2000 J/KG) ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD LEAD TO SOME PULSEY TYPE
EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS (MOST LIKELY IN
THE WET MICROBURST CATEGORY) AND EVEN SOME HAIL TO NEAR OR BRIEFLY
ABOVE 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH ANY STORM INTERACTIONS/OUTFLOW
COLLISIONS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS PRETTY WEAK TODAY, SO NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK OVERALL.
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BURN SCARS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. ALREADY HAVE A WATCH POSTED FOR ASPEN ACRES
THROUGH 8 PM, AND ALTHOUGH ODDS OF GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN
STILL RESTS IN THE 15-30% RANGE (HIGHER PROBS IN NBM THAN HREF), THE
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE AND AT LEAST SOME
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAKE THIS A PRUDENT WATCH. COULD SEE LOCALIZED 2
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN UNDER THE MORE INTENSE CORES (SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY). ALSO ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY YESTERDAY AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN EL PASO COULD LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF. THE URBAN COLORADO
SPRINGS AREA WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD A
STRONGER STORM IMPACT THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THE ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME COULD KEEP A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DELAY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE OVERNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
SATURDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
REMAINING OVER THE REGION, THOUGH WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DECREASE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS KEEPS DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, AND AFTERNOON CAPE
WILL RANGE UP TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE
A LITTLE STRONGER DUE TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND WE COULD SEE A FEW
MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A
STRONGER SIGNAL FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLAINS, AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WILL ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR ON SATURDAY. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY PORTION OF THE PLAINS MAY SEE DELAYED
DESTABILIZATION DEPENDING ON OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THE EVENING
BEFORE. IF THIS OCCURS, THE FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONG STORMS MAY STAY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON MESA REGIONS. THE LOW
LEVEL JET SATURDAY EVENING WOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BUT EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
MAINTAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILARLY WET AS WE ARE STILL UNDER A FAVORABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FOR MONSOON MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR AS
PROBABILITIES OF FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ABOVE 50%
FOR 0.25 IN THE NBM BLENDS AND WE ARE STILL UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO LOOKS STRONGER
ON SUNDAY IN SOME HIGH RES CAMS MODELS WHICH ALSO RAISES CONCERNS
FOR FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
DEEP LAYER OF 35 KTS AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS ADJACENT PLAINS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER PROBS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH EXPANDS WESTWARD PUTTING SOUTHERN CO UNDER
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
PRECIPITABLE START TO DECREASE BUT ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH PERHAPS SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND A
COUPLE DEGREES. TUESDAY LOOKS DRIER FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VARIABLE TIMING
ACCORDING TO LONG RANGE MODELS BUT SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OUT
EAST AND BRINGS AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS AND SHIFTS OVER
WESTERN CO/UT TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER WARM UP
WITH RECYCLED MONSOON MOISTURE EVENTUALLY RETURNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. -KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES RIGHT AT THE START OF
THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PUSH EASTWARD. IF ONE OF THESE STORMS
WERE TO IMPACT EITHER TAF SITE, HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ALONG WITH THAT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH A ROUGE SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTING THE
TAF SITE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW (LESS THAN 10) IN THIS HOWEVER, SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TAF FORECAST. OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ079-080-086.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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