880
FXUS65 KPUB 102324
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EAST OF
I-25.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER ASPEN ACRES
FIRE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED, HIGH BASED CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A FIRE CONCERN.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURN TO MAINLY
AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE DRIER AIR WITHIN MODEST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH GOES BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING PWATS OF 40-60% OF NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 75-110 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING A MINOR EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, AIDING IN
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE ALSO INDICATING CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING EAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, WHERE BEST CAPE, DCAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. MAIN
STORM THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE SOME DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ASPEN ACRES BURN AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT, THOUGH SUSPECT TO MAY BE TAKEN DOWN EARLIER,
AS AFTERNOON STORMS CLEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH LEADS TO MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
DESPITE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STORMS TO BE
MAINLY HIGH BASED, PRODUCING MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WITH THE WARMING ALOFT, HIGHS TO WARM AS WELL, WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH AND "HEAT DOME" IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH MODEST
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH LATEST MODELS INDICATING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE SEEPING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO, THOUGH DO BELIEVE LATEST NBM POPS ARE AT TAD HIGH. AT ANY RATE,
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, THE MODEST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BEING "EXCESSIVE" FROM JULY STANDARDS, THOUGH
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES. IN
ADDITION, THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER, MODEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONLY
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONGER TERM MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND LOCATION OF SAID UPPER HIGH FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE LATEST EC DATA INDICATING MUCH LESS
STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK, WHERE AS THE GFS AND NBM ARE INDICATING A
WETTER SOLUTION WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KPUB...STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
SITE AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PD. SOME THUNDER IS
NEARBY AND WE MAY EVEN HERE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BETWEEN 00 AND
01 UTC. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BETWEEN 01 AND 02
UTC WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THEREAFTER.
KCOS AND KALS...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DIURNAL LIGHT WIND FLOW. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE DISTANCE SOUTHEAST AT THE VERY
BEGINNING OF THIS FCST VCNTY KCOS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ079-080-
086.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH/MW
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