147
FXUS65 KPUB 262046
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
246 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW LIGHT/RAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
COLD FRONT BACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, RUNNING PERHAPS AN HOUR OR 2 AHEAD OF LAST NIGHT'S
MODEL FORECASTS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AS OF 2 PM, MOST
LOCATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
(AHEAD OF THE FRONT) HAVE REACHED CRITERIA WITH A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO GO. BEHIND THE FRONT, HUMIDITY INCREASES
SLIGHTLY, THOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS LAG THE FROPA BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. WILL KEEP RED FLAG UP IN IT'S CURRENT CONFIGURATION FOR
NOW, THOUGH WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WE MAY NEED TO END NORTHERN
PORTIONS SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPIRATION AS MOISTER AIR SPREADS
SOUTH. STARTING TO SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTION ON RADAR AT MID-
AFTERNOON, AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES/GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OVER TELLER COUNTY AND ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVERNIGHT, COOLER AIR BANKS UP AGAINST THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 20S/30S
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH CLOUDS HELPING KEEP ERN PLAINS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DESPITE THE RETURN OF MUCH
COOLER AIR.
ON FRIDAY, CLOUDY AND COOL ALONG/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER THEN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN WX STORY
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS, WITH READINGS ON THE PLAINS
RUNNING OVER 30 DEGF COOLER THAN THU MAXES. LESS PRONOUNCED
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH EVEN HERE, READINGS WILL SLIP
SOME 10-20 DEGF.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD SATURDAY, WHILE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS. 700MB THERMAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS AS WELL,
AND WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS OVER 10C, SURFACE TEMPS WILL POP BACK
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE, WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS/LOW 20S, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS/UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEYS,
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50), WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FAIRLY SIMILAR SET-UP FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS CRITICAL AS
SATURDAY, SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK HIGH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION BOTH SAT/SUN
AFTERNOONS AS ATMOSPHERE MIXES DEEPLY, THOUGH NDFD POPS LOOKED
TOO HIGH AND CUT THEM BACK TO JUST ISOLATED OVER THE PEAKS.
STARTING MONDAY, COMBINATION OF INITIAL PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN MON AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH WEAKER
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH, ABOVE 10000 FEET, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING LIGHT AND
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER PEAKS. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASE AFTER MONDAY, WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES
MULTIPLYING AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE WEEK. MAIN MESSAGE IS THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH COLD AIR INITIALLY WITH
ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS, SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS IS MOVING FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT COS LIKELY TO
SHIFT TO WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY 20Z AND THEN BECOME BREEZY
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY 22Z. LATEST MODELS DO INDICATE INCREASED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE, AND HAVE ADDED A PROB30
FOR SHRA AT COS FROM 22Z-01Z. SECONDARY SURGE COMES DOWN THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
COS BY 08Z, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST BY 12Z LEADING
TO LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS AT COS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA/-DZ AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BREEZY WESTERLY AT PUB LOOK TO SWITCH TO BREEZY EASTERLY WITH
INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE BETWEEN 22Z-24Z. SECONDARY SURGE COMES
DOWN THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT PUB BY 06Z, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
LEADING TO LOW MVFR CIGS AT PUB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING, CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE TO VFR
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO GUSTY EASTERLY BY 06Z, AS PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MTNS. GUSTY
EASTERLIES DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
MARCH 26TH STANDING RECORDS...
PUEBLO: 84 IN 2022 AND 2004
COLORADO SPRINGS: 81 IN 1971
ALAMOSA: 73 IN 1971
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>222-
224-225-227>237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220-222-224-225-229-230-233-237.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
CLIMATE...HODANISH/KT
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