130
FXUS65 KPUB 250637
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1237 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNOW LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, WHILE THE
PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING IN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MT AND THE DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING, WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE A SURFACE
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS PUB ASOS JUST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER AIR AS WELL AS
AN INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING, AND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY SETS UP IS THE
CHALLENGE. AT THE SAME TIME, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AS AN
UPPER LOW PUSHES ONSHORE ACROSS THE CA COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL BUTT HEADS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTING UP FROM PUEBLO COUNTY BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL SEE E-NE SURFACE WINDS, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. TO THE WEST OF THAT BOUNDARY, GUSTY W-SW
WINDS AND CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS,
BUT SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY MIDDAY, THEN SPREAD TO ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY IN THE
60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
TONIGHT...THE CA UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PUSHES ACROSS NV, NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS. INCREASING LIFT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED MOISTURE TO
THE MTS, WITH SNOW TOTALS AS OF RIGHT NOW RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES
FOR THE PEAKS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS, 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE PEAKS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER, WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
SUNDAY...FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE MTS AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS PAINT AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT, WHILE THE REST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SEES 2-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS, MINUS ANY POTENTIAL MELTING,
ARE LEANING TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL HAVE THE FOLLOWING
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK JUST IN CASE THIS QPF IS TOO HEAVY HANDED.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DRAW UP SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE THE FIRST REAL SHOT AT
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS IN QUITE A WHILE. ABOUT
1000 J/KG OF CAPE BLOSSOMS MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PUSHES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, AND SPC HAS PAINTED THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH GENERAL THUNDER, AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED AS THIS LOOKS LIKE AN
INTERESTING DAY. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
MONDAY...THE MESSY UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DAY OF SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND CONVECTION FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS, THOUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE. PIKES PEAK AND EVEN MONUMENT HILL MAY SEE SOME NEW
SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR OVER MONUMENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 60F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
50S TO AROUND 70F FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AND MID 50S FOR NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY.
TUESDAY...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS AND A INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTS AND
PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THOSE AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINGLE DIGIT RH LEVELS CREEPING BACK IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT WEDNESDAY
MAY SE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA,
ALONG WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SYSTEM WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, BUT WILL FOLLOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY PATH, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MT SNOW AND STORM CHANCES
TO THE PLAINS FOR THU AND FRI. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
KCOS AND KPUB...
VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. A COLD
FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING THROUGH KCOS AROUND 05Z SHOULD BE NEARING
OR THROUGH KPUB AROUND THE 06Z TAF STARTING TIME. NORTH WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 25 KTS FOR BOTH TERMINALS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LOW VFR STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID WINDOW.
KALS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN TOWARDS 02Z SUN UNDER MID AND HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDINESS.
-KT
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS REMAIN.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONES 220, 224, 229 AND
230 TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, AND RH LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. FIRE ZONE
224, AND THE VALLEY FLOOR OF FIRE ZONE 220, HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SEEING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO LOW RH LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ZONES 229 AND 230 WILL BE A
BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE SINCE IT WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE BOUNDARY SETS UP BETWEEN THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, AND GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE W-SW WINDS. SPOTTY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR GAP FLOW AREAS IN EASTERN FREMONT, SOUTHERN EL PASO,
AND NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTIES, BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME CRITERIA WOULD BE MET IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ220-224-229-230.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
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