045  
FXUS65 KPUB 062020  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
220 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- COOL AND CLOUDY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH SOME  
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG ALONG THE  
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE WARM  
AND DRY OUT WEST.  
 
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
- UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT TO OUR  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUE. AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF IT  
GLANCES BY, AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PASSES  
TO OUR SOUTH, SOUTHERN CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK  
OVERRUNNING WITHIN A SATURATED LAYER. STRATUS WILL FILL IN AND  
OR THICKEN AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,  
AND LIFT INDUCED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS  
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE ALOFT  
IF TH OVERRUNNING CAN BREAK THE CAP, SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. BRIEF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.  
MEANWHILE, UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PLAINS INTERFACE TO THE NORTH OF OUR  
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE  
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN WITH PERSISTENT  
CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY, THOUGH  
SOME BREAKS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE  
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH  
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN  
QUICKLY AS THEY PUSH OFF INTO THE COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER NBM MEMBERS AND GUIDANCE  
FOR HIGHS. -KT  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN OVER  
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S-80S,  
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ASIDE FROM OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE  
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC. LONG-TERM  
MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER TO EJECT THE MAIN CIRCULATION FURTHER  
WEST OR CARRY THE MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE JET. MODELS  
DIVERGE GREATLY ON THIS AFTER ABOUT THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BUT IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY  
TOWARDS US, BRINGING WETTER AND POTENTIALLY COOLER CONDITIONS LATER  
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCOS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR  
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RISE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE  
21-02Z TIMEFRAME. KPUB WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A  
ROUND OF -SHRA -DZ AND BR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CIGS  
DROP FOR KCOS BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AND A SOLID LOW END  
MVFR DECK SETTLES IN OVER KPUB. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS RISING AGAIN TOWARDS 18Z.  
 
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND WE COULD SEE MORE  
CLOUD COVER SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, BUT IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN  
SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS  
TOWARD DAWN. ODDS OF THIS LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT SO WILL  
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF  
PERIOD. -KT  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KT  
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO  
AVIATION...KT  
 
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