178
FXUS65 KPUB 291729
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VIRGA POTENTIAL AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OVER KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES
AFTER 3PM POSSIBLE - 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
- DRY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY - MONDAY, WITH STORMS RETURNING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE US WEST AND WILL PROPAGATE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO UTAH DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED EMITTED WAVES ARE
CAUSING THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS, BUT BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON DRY AIR ADVECTED FROM THE SW WILL REACH THE
REGION, DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. KIOWA, BENT, PROWERS, AND BACA COUNTIES ARE ON THE
MOIST SIDE OF THE DRY AIR BOUNDARY, THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST ATMOSPHERE FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, PRIMARILY
OVER KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES. INSTABILITY OVER THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1500 J/KG, BUT THE 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND
20KTS. THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION ALOFT THAT THE AIR PARCEL
WILL HAVE TO BREAK THROUGH, BUT IF IT DOES AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS WITH VALUES AROUND 30 MPH, SOME ISOLATED
WEAK ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE VIRGA AND THEREFORE
ENHANCING THE SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NEAR THE
ELEVATED STORMS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED - LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
OVER THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO MONDAY. ON MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE 80S OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY, MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MIDDAY AND TRAVEL OVER THE PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ON EACH DAY WITH ONE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. BY THURSDAY A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE IF THE FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL OR NOT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KALS: VFR MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
PASSING SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES
DWINDLING AFTER 00Z OR SO. OVERNIGHT, MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND AND SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY.
KCOS AND KPUB: LOW MVFR CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CIGS IMPROVING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA OF BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND ABOUT 01Z, THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO LEAVE AS PROB30 FOR NOW. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WEAKEN AND SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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