592  
FXUS65 KPUB 241136  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
436 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND  
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF  
20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING  
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY, AND THE HRRR SHOWS  
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD  
ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER MTN AREAS, AND MAYBE SOME  
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS  
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF EXPECTED SNOW TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW THAT MAY REDUCE  
VISIBILITIES, WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY  
AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY TODAY AND INTO THE  
EVENING.  
 
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT,  
AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY THE LA GARITA MTNS. THE  
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE  
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
ONE MORE DAY OF COLD, UNSETTLED AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS  
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF MODERATING/WARMING  
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS  
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, NEXT QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IN  
COMBINATION WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE SURGE WILL  
ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM TO BE NOTED  
FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,  
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES ON  
TUESDAY ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.  
 
PROJECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO  
THE 30S OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS TUESDAY, WITH EXPECTED MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND  
CHILL READINGS TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS(POSSIBLY  
COLDER) BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR  
CLOSELY.  
 
THEN, OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS,  
PV ANALYSIS, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, ETC., INDICATE THAT A  
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PATTERN FROM  
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER THE CWA, ALLOWING FOR DRY  
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE  
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
FINALLY, INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE REALIZED  
OVER PRIMARILY CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LOCATIONS AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES  
AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT KCOS, KPUB AND  
KALS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OR IN  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR  
COZ058>060.  
 

 
 

 
 
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