700
FXUS65 KPUB 051711
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AND MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
- CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREDICTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
CALM AS WELL DUE TO MINIMAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING. THE MAIN
STORY IN TERMS OF WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE CONTINUED
HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING
AROUND 11AM OR SO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF INVERTED
V PROFILES AND DCAPE VALUES >= 1000J/KG. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS BESIDES GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TO END THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE ITS
IMPACT OVER SE CO. THE IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS. EXTENDED NBM DATA
SHOWS TEMPERATURES OF >95F ARE LIKELY FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME MORE EXTREME MODEL OUTCOMES (75TH
PERCENTILE) SHOWING TEMPS CLOSER TO 100F FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. COLORADO SPRINGS CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS PEAKING AROUND 92F SUNDAY.
THIS WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE EVEN
MORE ENTERING THE WORK WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CREATES
WARMING AND DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WHEREAS THE PLAINS SHOULD
EXPECT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER GUSTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW TO MODERATE ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE EARLY WEEK AND THEREFORE
DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DRIVERS OF THIS
INCOMING WIND REGIME. WIND ASIDE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
DECREASE SHARPLY, LIKELY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOST
EXTREME LOCATIONS, AS THESE FOEHN WINDS MATERIALIZE. DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS, LOW RH, AND EVER CURING FUELS,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AND
MORE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB
THROUGH 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT KALS AND
KCOS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR OUTFLOW, AS PASSING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WFO PUEBLO
LONG TERM...WFO PUEBLO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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