063
FXUS65 KPUB 100906
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 AM MDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WARMER, MORE DRY AND INCREASED WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOTTEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT MAY 10 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES BUILDING IN OVER OUR REGION. THE AREA WILL LARGELY REMAIN
DRY, WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE VALLEYS. A FEW AREAS CLOSER TO THE KANSAS BORDER MAY CREEP INTO
THE LOW-80S AS WELL. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS FEEL LIKE SUMMER.
MEANWHILE, THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL OVERALL BE
A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE DWINDLES IN THE AREA BENEATH
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SAN JUANS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND NO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND DRY ONCE AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM SLIGHTLY, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HAVING THE TROUGH PUSH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND, WITH ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY DRYING OUT
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER JET WITH A 110 KT
CORE WILL BE CARVING OUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERING
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, SO INCREASING W-SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON
MONDAY WILL START TO GET MORE GUSTY FOR TUESDAY. AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, BUT LATEST FUELS INFORMATION STILL INDICATES
GREENUP IN MOST SPOTS. AREAS TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE TELLER COUNTY
AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ALL
THREE DAYS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHILE THE PLAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID
70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY, THEN 80S TO AROUND 90F BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HOLDING ONTO
EJECTING THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WY AND MT
ON WED, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS SOME TIME ON THU. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN REMAINS
UNSETTLED FOR THE REGION THROUGH FRI. PLAN ON STRONGER WINDS
CONTINUING INTO WED, REMAINING BREEZY FOR THU, THEN FINALLY
LIGHTER WINDS INTO FRI. CONVECTION CHANCES RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MTS, THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE PALMER DIVIDE.
TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL COOL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES ON WED,
THEN ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS ALL THREE DAYS, WHILE THE PLAINS WILL SEE
70S TO LOWER 80S ON WED, THEN MID 60S TO MID 70S ON THU AND FRI.
MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS, TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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