863
FXUS65 KPUB 201123
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY WEST OF I-25.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
TELLER COUNTY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL OFF A
FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH MOSTLY 40S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER ARIZONA AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING ABOVE HIGHS SEEN YESTERDAY. THESE
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S
NEAR LAMAR. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW, UNDER 10
PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN WEAK,
AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND NEAR
30 OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OVER MEXICO, AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
REDEVELOP MID WEEK WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS TO MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY. ENHANCED MIXING WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING,
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE WOULD BE ALL TIME MARCH MONTHLY
RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES, AND 40 PLUS DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! IN
ADDITION TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
LOW, NEAR 5 PERCENT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH STRONGER, WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-25. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-25. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE GUSTY WINDS MIX
OUT INTO THE PLAINS. IF WINDS DO LOOK TO MIX FURTHER EAST, MORE
AREAS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING. OVERNIGHT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED WELL INTO
THE EVENING, WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES POOR. HAVE EXTENDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 11 PM SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 60S AND
70S, STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. MOST GUIDANCE HAS LOW POPS
FOR TELLER COUNTY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONTINUED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS
TO BE RAIN BELOW 10 KFT, WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PIKES PEAK. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WEST, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S
AND 80S, WITH A FEW LOW 90S ON THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S, WITH NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES. BEYOND THAT, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 20TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 87.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ220>230.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE
CLIMATE...MOORE
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