969
FXUS65 KPUB 022327
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
527 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TONIGHT INTO MID DAY FRIDAY
- DRY AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED WITH A
POTENTIAL LATE WEEK STORM
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHERN U.S ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CO, DEEPENING THE LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CO. THIS WILL KICKS EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE KS BORDER THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE CYCLONE SETS UP
IN NE CO. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEYS WHERE HUMIDITIES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS TODAY. WITH TIME, WINDS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
AND FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY. THIS WILL BE A LATER SHOW FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, AND THE CURRENT RED
FLAG GOES THROUGH 8 PM WHICH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
MEANWHILE, THE TAIL END OF ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SEND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAWATCH AND
MOSQUITO RANGES. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNDER 6 INCHES WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. NO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
APPEAR NECESSARY GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS
BRIEF EVENT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT FALLING HUMIDITIES BEHIND
IT. THIS RAISES CONCERNS AGAIN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A TRICKY JUXTAPOSITION BETWEEN
CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES, WHICH FALL THROUGH THE DAY, AND GUSTY
WINDS, WHICH PEAK IN THE MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. OPTED TO ISSUE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES, WHERE BOTH CONDITIONS COME
TOGETHER THE BEST. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREAD DOWN INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SPOTTY HIGH WINDS TO OCCUR
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SANGRES INTO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND HUERFANO COUNTY. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE VERY WESTERN EDGES OF THESE
LOWER ELEVATION ZONES, WHERE HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS 58 MPH.
PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10% FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION (75 MPH
CRITERIA) MOUNTAIN ZONES. GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY AND VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE, WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT
CERTAINLY SOME LOCALIZED 55-65 MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-25 IN HUERFANO COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM WINDOW. AFTER 3 AM, STRONG
FORWARD SHEAR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE
TIMBERLINE.
DIDN'T STRAY FAR FROM MODEL BLENDS FOR HIGHS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES. DID COOL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OUT WEST WHERE CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. -KT
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY, BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BUT DOESN'T REALLY BRING MUCH COOLING OR
PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS SO WILL NEED TO WATCH BACA COUNTY CLOSELY FOR
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON MONDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE BUT DETAILS QUITE MURKY FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THOUGH SPEEDS AND AMPLITUDE DIFFER. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO BROAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY IN THE
NATIONAL MODEL BLENDS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE OVERALL
RESULT IS POPS WILL LIKELY BE OVERDONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS ON TUE AND WED. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A COOL DOWN, EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW, AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OUT WEST FILLS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK, THOUGH TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN
THE RUNS. MODEL BLENDS PAINT BROAD SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -KT
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25-30 KNOTS OR SO, WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING, WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. FOR FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE IN
OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN THE MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS,
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS, TO KCOS AND KPUB. KALS WILL ALSO SEE NORTHERLY
WINDS, THOUGH WITH FEWER GUSTS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AND
OUT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPUB OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW A BIT OFF THE DECK. SOME STRONGER FLOW IS
EXPECTED ALOFT OVER KCOS AS WELL, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT OR
SO, SO AT THE MOMENT NO NEED FOR LLWS IN THE TAF. WILL MONITOR AND
UPDATE AS NEEDED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222-224-
227>232-234>236.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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