971
FXUS65 KPUB 232053
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
CURRENTLY...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER WAST NOTED ALONG THE GENERAL US-
50 CORRIDOR FROM TEXAS CREEK TO CANON CITY TO WEST OF KLHX. OTHER
MORE ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FEW 70S
IN N EL PASO COUNTY. 70S PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REST OF TODAY...
DON'T THINK THE SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS WILL LAST TOO MUCH LONGER AS
THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. SHOWERS OVER THE
MTNS./PLAINS INTERFACE WILL LAST A BIT LONGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ALOFT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S PLAINS, WITH WARMEST TEMPS ON THE
IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S. FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE IN KLXV. 20S MTN TOPS.
TOMORROW...
SUNNY AND HOT WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 MOST OF PLAINS WITH 80S ON
THE DIVIDES; AROUND 80 VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S MTNS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS FLATTENED BY EASTERN PACIFIC
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. PATTERN SUPPORTS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SUPPORTING RECORD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 25TH ARE 81F IN 2014 FOR ALAMOSA, 87F IN 1998 FOR COLORADO
SPRINGS, AND 97F IN 1998 FOR PUEBLO. WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
FRIDAY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE
DANGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND LAG PEAK HEATING, WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...PASSING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FRIDAY
NIGHT SENDS A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
"COOLEST" AIR SLOWLY SLIDING INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID, HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN FRIDAY'S READINGS, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY THEN ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, BEFORE A STRONGER, YET STILL DRY
COLD FRONT, PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S TO AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES; KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
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