302
FXUS65 KPUB 281958
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1258 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY MONDAY, WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RAIN TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, TUES/WEDS.
- MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
TRACK AND INTENSITY DETAILS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
WARM AND GENERALLY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE. EXPECT HIGH-30S JUST WEST OF I-25, LOWER
30S OUT EAST, AND MID-20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE
EAST.
COOLER AND CLOUDIER ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME AREAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD BREACH 70 DEGREES. HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS MAY BE TRICKY, WITH
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING MORE CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING THINGS A BIT
COOLER. ON THE CONTRARY, SOME SITES FURTHER EAST COULD EASILY JUMP 5
OR SO DEGREES HIGHER SHOULD THE CLOUDS UNDERPERFORM.
MEANWHILE, SOME PASSING ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
KICK UP SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY,
OVER THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
HIGHS CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY AS THE COOL
AIR RETREATS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED A BIT, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE PLAINS, BUT SOME AREAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
SOUTHERN I-25, BUT COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD
NORTH IF WE GET MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT CLOSE TO
THE PALMER. AS OF NOW, RH IS A BIT TOO HIGH AND WINDS ARE TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS, BUT THAT COULD
EASILY CHANGE IF WINDS PICK UP MORE IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP STILL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH A FEW OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS TAKING THE PASSING LOW FURTHER NORTH. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER/PIKES PEAK REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW HITS
THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THAT BEING SAID, QPF HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN, AND IF THE LOW SHIFTS ANY FURTHER NORTH I
CAN SEE THE EXPECTED QPF TO DECREASE EVEN MORE. STILL, GIVEN THE
LIFT PRESENT WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM, WHAT SHOWERS WE DO GET COULD
BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, SO HEAVIER PRECIP RATES COULD BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR.
QUICK WARM UP WED/THU AS SYSTEM DEPARTS, WITH MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES AT ALL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY, SOME BRINGING A QUICK-MOVING OPEN WAVE INTO
CO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHERS SEND A SLOWER CLOSED LOW JUST
TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER
AND WETTER, WITH GENERALLY MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS, BUT WITH MODELS
SO OUT OF PHASE, WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOR MORE DETAILS TO
BECOME CONSISTENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH DIURNAL FLOW
PATTERNS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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