964
FXUS65 KPUB 061151
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER SATURDAY, WITH A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES, AND ONLY
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
CURRENTLY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO. GENERAL WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE STATE ARE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THOUGH LOW LEVEL NIGHTTIME CLOUD IMAGERY DEFINITELY IS
PICKING UP THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AS OF 1 AM HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE ROCKY MT
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHILE A BROAD BUT FLAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER TX AND MEXICO. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, AIDED
BY OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LLVL
MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS
TODAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LLVL FLOW TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR. ADD
SOLAR HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE THE SPARK,
AND TODAY PROMISES TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY STARTING AROUND MIDDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 18Z, INCREASING TO OVER 2000
J/KG BY 21Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. BULK SHEAR SITS AT
RIGHT AROUND 50-60 KTS, AND SPC HAS PAINTED MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN
EITHER A SLIGHT OR AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH
THE LIKELY THREATS BEING HAIL UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, AND EVEN A TORNADO IS A POSSIBILITY.
WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD KICK OFF AROUND NOON, FEEL THAT THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM, WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FINALLY COMING TO AN END
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER THREAT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THESE STORM DROP A LOT OF HAIL AND
MOVE SLOWLY. RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS HAS STARTED TO
ADD UP THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PLAINS HITTING 80F. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND BOTH DEPARTING UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MCS MOVING THROUGH KS/OK WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH A NOTICEABLE
DOWNTURN IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONLY
LOCATIONS THAT WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF A
T-STORM WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NM
BORDER, WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINGER. LACK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP BOOST MAXES INTO THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH 70S HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
60S/70S MOUNTAINS.
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING, BRINGING A RENEWED SURGE OF EASTERLY
UPSLOPE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS MODEST (CAPE 400-800
J/KG) MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR
SERN CORNER OF THE PLANS MAY BOOST CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG BY LATE
DAY. OVERALL, EXPECT AN UPTURN IN T-STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO DRIFT DOWNWARD A FEW DEGF
VERSUS SAT, AS COLD FRONT USHERS IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON/TUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS BOTH DAYS, MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS
EAST BY MID/LATE WEEK, WITH FLOW BECOME MORE WLY OVER CO.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, AND WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S., DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS TODAY AFTER 18Z-20Z, AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 60 KTS AND FREQUENT CG LTG.
KCOS: FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD OFF THIS MORNING AS WEAK
DOWNSLOPE NORTH WIND HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL REMOVE
ANY IFR CIGS/VIS FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. PROB30
FOR -TSRA STARTS 18Z-20Z AS HRRR SUGGESTS QUICK STORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA
CHANCE INTO THE EVENING, AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION LOOK
POSSIBLE. STORMS SHIFT EAST OF 04Z-06Z, WITH VFR OVERNIGHT AS
DOWNSLOPE NORTH WIND SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS AWAY.
KPUB: LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW LIMITING CLOUD/FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING, AND WILL REMOVE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THE FORECAST WITH
THE 12Z ISSUANCE. PROB30 FOR -TSRA BEGINS 20-22Z AND LASTS
THROUGH 05Z, WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND VSBY MORE PROBABLE AFTER 00Z. STORMS SHIFT EAST OF
04Z-06Z, WITH VFR OVERNIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE N-NW WIND SHOULD KEEP
LOW CLOUDS AWAY.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
CONVECTION STAYS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SW WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 20Z-02Z, THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE/PETERSEN
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