366
FXUS65 KPUB 231031
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
431 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FOR CERTAIN AREAS ON THE PLAINS,
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
HOWEVER, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE
TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
CONTDVD INITIALLY, AND THEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE SAN JUANS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE
EVENING AS WELL, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO
POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SAWATCH RANGE.
DOWNSLOPING AND ADIABATICALLY WARMING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM OVER THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY WITH ENSEMBLES
SHOWING MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 11 TO 14 PERCENT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AND ANYWHERE BETWEEN 16 TO 18 PERCENT FOR
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WHILE PEAK WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTING NEAR
30 MPH IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE NOT GOING
TO BE QUITE AT THE THRESHOLD OF 15 PERCENT OR BELOW TO SUPPORT FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT GET TO
NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE VALLEY. FOR THE PLAINS, THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PUEBLO, HUERFANO,
AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL, WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
WINDS OVER THE PLAINS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD HELP TO INCREASE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RISK IN CERTAIN AREAS. THE ADIABATICALLY WARMING WINDS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME QUITE WARM AND WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AROUND 85 DEGREES FOR BACA COUNTY. THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 50S TO 60S, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGH COUNTRY, AND AROUND
25 DEGREES FOR THE FOURTEENERS.
TONIGHT...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH GOING INTO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING OUT OF THE NW
OVER THE PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN CONTDVD, MAINLY THE SAWATCH RANGE, OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR, YET REMAIN BREEZY, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD FOR MOST LOCATIONS...FROM THE 40S OVER
THE PLAINS, TO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS,
AND 15 DEGREES FOR THE FOURTEENERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ENDING
BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY, THOUGH
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MID-LEVEL FLOW DECREASES. ONLY CAME UP WITH
SOME VERY PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WRN
PUEBLO/ERN FREMONT COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS
RH BRIEFLY DROPS TOWARD 15 PERCENT, THOUGH AREAL EXTENT LOOKS TOO
SMALL AND DURATION TOO SHORT FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPS SUN
LOOK TO RUN 5-8 DEGF COOLER THAN SAT AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
GREATEST COOLING OVER THE PLAINS.
TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MON, WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WRN U.S. AGAIN, DON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MON, AS WINDIEST AREAS ON THE PLAINS HOLD
ONTO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP RH WELL ABOVE 15 PERCENT,
WHILE DRIER AREAS FARTHER WEST DON'T HAVE QUITE ENOUGH WIND FOR
ANY HIGHLIGHTS. MAX TEMPS BOUNCE BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AGAIN, AND SOME NEAR 80F READINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
UPPER TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE STATE TUE/TUE NIGHT, WITH PREFERRED
GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW AND WIND TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUE, WHILE
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINING HIGH
TERRAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. MAY NEED SOME WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT
SOME POINT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR THE DIVIDE, BUT STILL TOO
FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. PRECIP OVER THE ERN MT
SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS LOOKS QUESTIONABLE AT BEST TUE
GIVEN 30-40 KT WLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB, THOUGH
SUPPOSE SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT. NBM POPS OVERALL
LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THE
PLAINS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TUE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON THE PLAINS, THOUGH
WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIP/VIRGA/CLOUD COVER, RH IS FAIRLY
MARGINAL, THOUGH 00Z GFS DOES HINT AT A FAIRLY QUICK DROP IN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG I-25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TUE
AGAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS, WHILE MOUNTAINS
COOL SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. STILL
BREEZY TO WINDY ON THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WED/THU, WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE
THEN BUILDS LATE WEEK WITH WARMER AIR AND LESS WIND FOR FRI.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARE TO BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD DECKS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY BUT
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BASED. THERE WILL BE -SHSN/SHSN DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, SO REDUCED VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE AREAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT STRONGER AT KALS. BE ADVISED THAT
WITH THESE AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL
TERMINALS, THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE CAT. ALSO, POSSIBLE
STANDING LENTICULARS/MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DOWNWIND OF THE LEEWARD (E-NE'WARD) SIDE OF ALL
MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OUT OF THE SW.
WINDS AT KALS WILL BE MAINLY L&V THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.
THEY WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SW.
WINDS AT KCOS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE THIS MORNING, BECMG
SSE-SSW'LY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GUSTY AT TIMES UP TO 20
KTS. THEY WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND SWITCH BACK TO THE
NE.
WINDS AT KPUB WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW, THEN BECMG SW'LY AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS. THEY WILL SWITCH
BACK TO THE NW AND DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...STEWARD
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