379
FXUS65 KPUB 171103
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
503 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY MORNING. AREAS WEST OF I-25
MAY SEE WEAK WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR FREEZING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH OF THE
PLAINS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AFTER A COLD START. A
FEW SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS BACA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SEES MID
20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IS A STORM SYSTEM SLATED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
IMPACTING MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO UPPER WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF ARIZONA. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY APPROACHES.
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER ARIZONA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY. EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THIS ENERGY, AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH, ABOVE 12-13 KFT. A QUICK INCH OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. AS THE
UPPER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST, A FEW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IF
ANYTHING AT ALL. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS ENERGY
MOVES NORTHEAST.
BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WITH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROPICS. THIS WILL HELP PRIME THE
AREA FOR THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TUESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EMBEDDED ENERGY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY, KNOCKING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
OFF HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON TUESDAY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. PLENTY OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.8-1.1 INCHES WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND PREVAIL ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. STRONG OROGRAPHIC MOISTURE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, FAVORING THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH WOLF CREEK PASS QPF
PROGS OF 1-3 INCHES (THE CANADIAN HAS HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING
THIS PERIOD. AGAIN, NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
SNOW LEVELS LIKELY ABOVE 12-13 KFT. THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SAN JUAN, LA GARITA
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. AT THIS TIME, THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS WEST OF I-25 DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR HIGHS.
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW THIS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE REMAIN CONSISTENT, LIFTING THE UPPER LOW AWAY FROM
COLORADO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND. THIS
WAS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z GFS. THE 00Z GFS RELOADS THE UPPER LOW
AND SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE NBM
JUST HAS WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND DID NOT
STRAY FROM THIS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IF YOU ARE TRAVELING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, AND VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. THIS AREA HAS SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST MONTH, AND COULD BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING AND SLIDES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS, WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ083>089-
093>099.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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