304
FXUS65 KPUB 220717
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
117 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT TODAY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS (FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220,
224, AND 225), WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
- COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD A WEAKER/FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE WEEKEND
WEATHER SYSTEM, SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY LESS IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
BASIN TODAY, THEN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS COLORADO, WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HOT/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
FROM MIDDAY UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z MODELS
DOES SHOW A 10 KT OR SO DROP OFF IN 7H/5H WINDS VERSUS FORECAST
24 HRS AGO, WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS
IN A GOOD DEAL OF CAMS NEVER QUITE GET TO 50 KTS. LEFT THE HIGH
WIND WARNING IN PLACE AT THIS POINT AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 50
MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE LIKELY, AND STILL AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF A FEW NEAR 60 MPH GUSTS FOR AN HR OR 2 MID-AFTERNOON
AS MIXING REACHES A MAXIMUM. RED FLAG/PDS RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK
GOOD, THOUGH AREA OF FORECAST PDS CONDITIONS HAS SHRUNK
SOMEWHAT WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. STILL A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED WINDY T-STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, BETTER CHANCES STAY FARTHER EAST IN
KS. MAIN RISK FROM A STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW FIRE STARTS.
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUE PAST SUNSET THIS
EVENING, BEFORE HUMIDITY IMPROVES ENOUGH TO END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
UPPER JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THU, KEEPING WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS GOING, THOUGH WINDS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS
WED, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS, WHERE A FEW MODELS SHOW A NLY
SURGE AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL APPEARS WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON, SO HAVE
CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS, THOUGH WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CONDITIONS MAY LIKELY
IMPROVE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID LEVELS MOISTEN,
THOUGH DRY SURFACE LAYER WILL KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MINIMAL. MAX
TEMPS WILL FALL SOME 5-15 DEGF AT MANY LOCATIONS THU AS TROUGH
KNOCKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
STILL CAN'T GET RID OF THE UPPER JET ON FRI, THOUGH MID-LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES IN MANY MODEL FORECASTS AS MAIN JET SEGMENT
DRIFTS INTO NRN CO/SRN WY BY EVENING. COULD STILL SEE SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY
BACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS POINT. FORCING FOR PRECIP REMAINS WELL NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SPRINKLE/FLURRY AT BEST OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, DRY ELSEWHERE. MAXES FRI END UP NEAR THU
NUMBERS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS COOLER AND UNSETTLED,
THOUGH A GOOD AMOUNT OF 00Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
NORTHWARD WITH BOTH FORCING AND MOISTURE, LEAVING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE PASSING WAVE TRAIN.
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY,
WITH CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAVING A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID (SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9K FEET) BY
EARLY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, SUSPECT WEEKEND NBM POPS ARE OVERDONE
GIVEN 00Z MODEL TRENDS, AND WON'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2 AS EARLIER/WETTER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS DIURNAL MIXING
DEVELOPS, AND PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR KALS. IN ADDITION, BLOWING DUST MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
MATERIALIZE, WHICH COULD QUICKLY DROP VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ220>222-224>237.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ221-
222-224>237.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ069-070.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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