643
FXUS65 KPUB 162324
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIKELY HISTORIC HEAT WAVE BEGINS TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COOL DAY FOR AWHILE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
IN THE 50S WILL BE REPLACED BY 70S TOMORROW AND 80S (AND SOME 90S)
THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, A HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING
THIS PERIOD. MAX TEMPS FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN TEH
80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S IN THE VALLEY. FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S PLAINS, AND UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITHOUT SAYING, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RECORD DAILY TEMPERATURES, WITH THE ALL
TIME MONTHLY TEMPERATURES FOR EACH OF THE 3 PRIMARY ASOS SITES BEING
BROKEN, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMP RECORDS ARE SHOWN
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE DESI
GUIDANCE. THIS CAN BE TRACED TO THE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AS THE GFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS PATTERN BRINGS
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA VERY
WARM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS.
MENTIONED WIND SHEAR FOR KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AS SFC
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT W-NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK REMAIN AT 35 KTS.
WINDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES AROUND 20Z TOMORROW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25-30 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
LCD SITES MARCH 17TH-21ST RECORD HIGHS
ALS...TUE...MAR 17...70F...2017
ALS...WED...MAR 18...73F...2017
ALS...THU...MAR 19...72F...1907
ALS...FRI...MAR 20...72F...2004
ALS...SAT...MAR 21...72F...1997
COS...TUE...MAR 17...74F...1908
COS...WED...MAR 18...80F...2017
COS...THU...MAR 19...80F...2017
COS...FRI...MAR 20...76F...2017
COS...SAT...MAR 21...75F...1995
PUB...TUE...MAR 17...80F...2007
PUB...WED...MAR 18...85F...2017
PUB...THU...MAR 19...86F...2017
PUB...FRI...MAR 20...84F...2017
PUB...SAT...MAR 21...82F...2016
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR ALAMOSA .........IS 76.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR COLORADO SPRINGS IS 81.
THE ALL TIME RECORD MARCH MAX TEMP FOR PUEBLO ..........IS 86.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
CLIMATE...MW
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