993
UXUS97 KBOU 190058
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1857 MDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2019
THIS FORECAST IS FOR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2019:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 78.2 F/25.7 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1026 FT/MIN (5.2 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 16759 FT MSL (11388 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 87.0 F/31.0 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1145 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 12763 FT MSL (7392 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 09/20....... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... CONTINUED POOR
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 22080 FT MSL (16709 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 09/20.......... POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:44:20 / 19:02:15 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 12 HR 17 MIN 55 SEC (737 MIN 55 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:53:18 MDT... 51.59 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 09/19/2019 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 14953 FT MSL (9582 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16331 FT MSL (10960 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16675 FT MSL (11303 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -2.3
K INDEX......................... +16.0
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.7 -80.9 240 17 9 1.5 0.8 M M M M M
45000 -59.7 -75.5 240 24 13 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
40000 -54.5 -66.1 235 22 12 4.3 2.4 M M M M M
38000 -51.8 -61.2 235 24 12 4.4 2.4 M M M M M
36000 -49.1 -56.4 235 25 13 4.5 2.4 M M M M M
34000 -45.0 -49.0 235 25 13 8.2 4.5 M M M M M
32000 -39.4 -38.9 240 23 12 8.3 4.5 M M M M M
30000 -34.5 -30.1 240 21 11 8.2 4.5 40.5 105.0 7.6 M M
29000 -32.0 -25.6 240 19 10 8.2 4.5 40.0 103.9 7.2 M M
28000 -29.6 -21.3 240 18 9 8.2 4.5 39.5 103.1 7.0 M M
27000 -27.2 -17.0 245 17 9 8.0 4.4 38.8 101.8 6.5 M M
26000 -24.8 -12.6 245 16 8 8.0 4.4 38.1 100.6 6.0 M M
25000 -22.3 -8.1 245 16 8 8.0 4.4 37.5 99.6 5.6 M M
24000 -19.9 -3.8 245 15 8 8.2 4.5 36.9 98.5 5.2 M M
23000 -17.4 0.7 245 15 7 8.2 4.5 36.3 97.4 4.8 M M
22000 -15.0 5.0 240 14 7 8.3 4.5 35.9 96.6 4.4 M M
21000 -12.6 9.3 240 13 7 7.9 4.3 35.2 95.4 3.9 M M
20000 -10.2 13.6 230 11 6 7.9 4.3 34.5 94.1 3.3 M M
19500 -9.1 15.6 225 10 5 7.8 4.3 34.2 93.6 3.1 M M
19000 -7.5 18.5 220 9 5 5.9 3.2 33.6 92.5 2.6 M M
18500 -6.6 20.1 210 8 4 6.1 3.3 33.0 91.4 2.0 M M
18000 -5.7 21.7 205 8 4 5.9 3.3 32.4 90.3 1.5 M M
17500 -4.9 23.2 200 8 4 5.8 3.2 31.7 89.0 0.8 M M
17000 -4.0 24.8 200 7 4 5.8 3.2 31.0 87.8 0.2 M M
16500 -3.1 26.4 200 7 4 7.0 3.8 30.4 86.8 -0.3 997 5.1
16000 -2.1 28.2 200 7 4 6.9 3.8 30.0 85.9 -0.8 952 4.8
15500 -1.1 30.0 205 7 4 7.5 4.1 29.5 85.1 -1.3 907 4.6
15000 -0.0 32.0 205 7 3 7.7 4.2 29.2 84.5 -1.6 859 4.4
14500 1.1 34.0 210 6 3 8.0 4.4 28.9 83.9 -2.0 811 4.1
14000 2.3 36.1 210 6 3 8.4 4.6 28.6 83.5 -2.3 761 3.9
13500 3.5 38.3 215 6 3 8.4 4.6 28.4 83.1 -2.6 710 3.6
13000 4.7 40.5 220 5 3 8.1 4.5 28.1 82.6 -2.9 660 3.4
12500 5.8 42.4 225 5 3 8.2 4.5 27.9 82.2 -3.2 610 3.1
12000 7.0 44.6 230 5 3 8.4 4.6 27.6 81.8 -3.4 559 2.8
11500 8.3 46.9 235 5 3 8.4 4.6 27.4 81.4 -3.7 508 2.6
11000 9.5 49.1 240 5 3 8.6 4.7 27.2 81.0 -3.9 456 2.3
10500 10.7 51.3 240 5 3 8.7 4.8 27.0 80.7 -4.2 404 2.1
10250 11.4 52.5 240 5 3 7.9 4.3 26.9 80.5 -4.3 378 1.9
10000 11.9 53.4 240 6 3 8.1 4.5 26.8 80.2 -4.4 354 1.8
9750 12.6 54.7 240 5 3 9.0 4.9 26.7 80.1 -4.5 327 1.7
9500 13.2 55.8 245 5 3 9.3 5.1 26.6 79.9 -4.6 300 1.5
9250 13.9 57.0 245 5 3 6.4 3.5 26.6 79.8 -4.7 274 1.4
9000 14.2 57.6 245 5 3 5.9 3.2 26.2 79.1 -5.1 255 1.3
8750 14.8 58.6 245 5 3 8.2 4.5 26.0 78.8 -5.3 231 1.2
8500 15.3 59.5 245 5 2 7.5 4.1 25.9 78.6 -5.5 207 1.1
8250 15.8 60.4 245 5 2 5.4 3.0 25.6 78.2 -5.7 185 0.9
8000 16.1 61.0 250 4 2 3.2 1.8 25.2 77.4 -6.2 169 0.9
7750 16.3 61.3 250 4 2 2.9 1.6 24.7 76.4 -6.7 155 0.8
7500 16.5 61.7 250 4 2 2.5 1.4 24.2 75.5 -7.3 142 0.7
7250 16.7 62.1 250 3 2 2.2 1.2 23.6 74.5 -7.9 130 0.7
7000 16.8 62.2 240 2 1 1.7 0.9 23.0 73.4 -8.5 119 0.6
6750 16.9 62.4 230 2 1 1.7 0.9 22.4 72.3 -9.1 109 0.6
6500 16.9 62.4 215 2 1 -1.5 -0.8 21.7 71.1 -9.8 100 0.5
6250 16.6 61.9 205 1 1 -4.7 -2.6 20.7 69.2 -10.9 102 0.5
6000 16.3 61.3 195 1 0 -3.9 -2.1 19.6 67.3 -12.0 106 0.5
5750 15.9 60.6 170 1 0 -4.2 -2.3 18.6 65.5 -13.1 108 0.5
5500 15.4 59.7 000 0 0 -11.9 -6.5 17.3 63.2 -14.4 118 0.6
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
09/19/2019 AT 0900 MDT | 09/19/2019 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.1 | CAPE... +84.7 LI... +1.4
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +17.9 | CINH... -47.5 K INDEX... +18.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.7 -80.9 230 18 9 2.4 1.3 | -62.9 -81.2 225 20 10 2.9 1.6
45000 -59.0 -74.2 240 24 13 2.4 1.3 | -58.5 -73.3 230 24 13 2.7 1.5
40000 -55.2 -67.4 230 23 12 4.2 2.3 | -54.3 -65.7 230 22 11 3.8 2.1
38000 -52.5 -62.5 230 23 12 4.6 2.5 | -52.0 -61.6 225 21 11 4.0 2.2
36000 -49.7 -57.5 230 23 12 4.6 2.5 | -49.6 -57.3 220 21 11 4.0 2.2
34000 -45.4 -49.7 230 22 11 8.4 4.6 | -44.9 -48.8 220 20 10 8.3 4.5
32000 -39.8 -39.6 230 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -39.9 -39.8 215 19 10 8.3 4.5
30000 -34.6 -30.3 230 17 9 8.8 4.8 | -34.8 -30.6 215 17 9 8.8 4.8
29000 -32.0 -25.6 230 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -32.1 -25.8 210 16 8 8.8 4.8
28000 -29.4 -20.9 230 15 8 8.6 4.7 | -29.5 -21.1 210 15 8 8.6 4.7
27000 -26.9 -16.4 230 14 7 8.1 4.4 | -27.1 -16.8 210 15 7 8.0 4.4
26000 -24.5 -12.1 230 13 7 8.1 4.4 | -24.7 -12.5 205 14 7 8.0 4.4
25000 -22.1 -7.8 225 12 6 8.1 4.5 | -22.3 -8.1 205 13 7 8.0 4.4
24000 -19.7 -3.5 225 12 6 7.6 4.2 | -19.8 -3.6 200 13 7 8.2 4.5
23000 -17.5 0.5 220 11 6 7.6 4.2 | -17.4 0.7 195 13 7 8.2 4.5
22000 -15.2 4.6 215 11 6 7.7 4.2 | -14.9 5.2 195 13 7 8.4 4.6
21000 -13.0 8.6 210 11 6 7.2 3.9 | -12.7 9.1 190 14 7 7.2 3.9
20000 -10.9 12.4 200 11 6 7.2 4.0 | -10.5 13.1 195 14 7 7.2 3.9
19500 -9.8 14.4 200 11 6 7.2 4.0 | -9.5 14.9 195 14 7 7.2 3.9
19000 -8.3 17.1 195 11 6 6.5 3.6 | -8.1 17.4 195 14 7 5.2 2.8
18500 -7.3 18.9 195 11 6 6.6 3.6 | -7.3 18.9 195 14 7 5.4 3.0
18000 -6.4 20.5 195 11 6 6.6 3.6 | -6.5 20.3 200 14 7 5.8 3.2
17500 -5.4 22.3 195 11 6 6.5 3.6 | -5.6 21.9 200 13 7 6.1 3.4
17000 -4.5 23.9 195 11 5 6.5 3.6 | -4.8 23.4 200 13 6 6.2 3.4
16500 -3.5 25.7 200 10 5 7.5 4.1 | -3.7 25.3 205 12 6 7.9 4.3
16000 -2.4 27.7 200 10 5 7.5 4.1 | -2.6 27.3 205 11 6 7.8 4.3
15500 -1.3 29.7 200 10 5 8.0 4.4 | -1.5 29.3 205 11 6 8.0 4.4
15000 -0.1 31.8 200 9 5 8.1 4.4 | -0.3 31.5 205 10 5 8.0 4.4
14500 1.0 33.8 200 8 4 8.1 4.5 | 0.9 33.6 210 10 5 8.1 4.5
14000 2.2 36.0 205 8 4 8.1 4.5 | 2.1 35.8 210 9 5 8.2 4.5
13500 3.4 38.1 205 7 4 8.1 4.5 | 3.3 37.9 215 9 4 8.4 4.6
13000 4.6 40.3 210 7 3 8.1 4.4 | 4.6 40.3 215 8 4 8.8 4.8
12500 5.8 42.4 210 6 3 8.1 4.4 | 5.9 42.6 220 8 4 8.7 4.8
12000 7.0 44.6 215 6 3 8.1 4.5 | 7.1 44.8 220 7 4 8.1 4.4
11500 8.2 46.8 220 5 3 8.1 4.5 | 8.3 46.9 220 7 4 8.1 4.4
11000 9.4 48.9 225 5 3 8.1 4.5 | 9.4 48.9 215 6 3 8.1 4.4
10500 10.5 50.9 230 5 2 6.8 3.7 | 10.6 51.1 215 6 3 5.4 3.0
10250 11.0 51.8 235 5 2 6.1 3.3 | 10.9 51.6 210 6 3 6.6 3.6
10000 11.5 52.7 240 5 2 8.8 4.8 | 11.7 53.1 210 5 3 11.1 6.1
9750 12.2 54.0 240 5 2 9.4 5.1 | 12.4 54.3 205 5 2 10.0 5.5
9500 12.9 55.2 245 5 2 9.3 5.1 | 13.2 55.8 205 4 2 10.2 5.6
9250 13.5 56.3 250 5 2 6.5 3.6 | 13.8 56.8 200 4 2 7.4 4.1
9000 13.9 57.0 255 4 2 6.2 3.4 | 14.3 57.7 195 4 2 7.8 4.3
8750 14.5 58.1 255 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 15.0 59.0 195 3 2 9.9 5.5
8500 15.0 59.0 255 4 2 7.4 4.1 | 15.7 60.3 190 3 2 9.2 5.0
8250 15.5 59.9 260 4 2 6.2 3.4 | 16.4 61.5 185 3 1 8.4 4.6
8000 15.9 60.6 265 4 2 5.1 2.8 | 16.9 62.4 175 3 1 7.8 4.3
7750 16.3 61.3 265 3 2 4.9 2.7 | 17.5 63.5 175 2 1 7.8 4.3
7500 16.6 61.9 265 3 2 4.3 2.3 | 18.1 64.6 170 2 1 8.0 4.4
7250 16.9 62.4 270 3 1 3.4 1.9 | 18.7 65.7 170 2 1 8.2 4.5
7000 17.1 62.8 275 2 1 3.1 1.7 | 19.3 66.7 165 2 1 8.5 4.7
6750 17.4 63.3 275 2 1 4.5 2.5 | 19.9 67.8 160 2 1 9.7 5.3
6500 17.7 63.9 265 2 1 2.5 1.4 | 20.7 69.3 165 1 1 10.6 5.8
6250 17.7 63.9 255 2 1 0.3 0.1 | 21.5 70.7 160 1 1 11.0 6.0
6000 17.7 63.9 245 1 1 0.3 0.1 | 22.3 72.1 155 1 1 10.1 5.6
5750 17.7 63.9 225 1 1 2.8 1.6 | 23.1 73.6 150 1 1 12.4 6.8
5500 18.2 64.8 220 1 1 11.4 6.2 | 24.3 75.7 150 1 1 22.6 12.4
09/19/2019 AT 1500 MDT | 09/19/2019 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +125.2 LI... -0.2 | CAPE... +272.7 LI... -1.7
CINH... -17.7 K INDEX... +24.5 | CINH... -24.4 K INDEX... +29.8
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.5 -80.5 225 21 11 2.9 1.6 | -62.3 -80.1 225 23 12 2.9 1.6
45000 -58.2 -72.8 230 26 13 2.4 1.3 | -57.9 -72.2 230 26 13 2.6 1.4
40000 -54.4 -65.9 230 23 12 3.9 2.2 | -54.0 -65.2 230 22 12 3.9 2.2
38000 -51.9 -61.4 225 22 11 4.3 2.3 | -51.4 -60.5 225 20 10 4.3 2.3
36000 -49.3 -56.7 220 20 10 4.3 2.3 | -48.9 -56.0 220 18 9 4.3 2.3
34000 -45.2 -49.4 215 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -44.2 -47.6 215 17 9 8.1 4.4
32000 -39.7 -39.5 205 18 9 8.3 4.5 | -39.4 -38.9 205 17 9 8.1 4.4
30000 -34.5 -30.1 205 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -34.4 -29.9 200 17 9 8.5 4.7
29000 -31.8 -25.2 205 16 8 8.8 4.8 | -31.8 -25.2 200 17 9 8.5 4.7
28000 -29.2 -20.6 200 15 8 8.7 4.8 | -29.3 -20.7 200 17 9 8.5 4.7
27000 -26.7 -16.1 205 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -26.8 -16.2 200 16 8 8.4 4.6
26000 -24.3 -11.7 205 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -24.3 -11.7 205 16 8 8.4 4.6
25000 -21.8 -7.2 205 13 7 8.2 4.5 | -21.7 -7.1 205 15 8 8.4 4.6
24000 -19.4 -2.9 205 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -19.4 -2.9 210 15 7 7.3 4.0
23000 -17.0 1.4 210 14 7 8.0 4.4 | -17.3 0.9 215 14 7 7.3 4.0
22000 -14.6 5.7 210 14 7 8.2 4.5 | -15.1 4.8 220 14 7 7.4 4.1
21000 -12.6 9.3 215 15 8 6.1 3.3 | -13.2 8.2 220 14 7 6.1 3.3
20000 -10.9 12.4 220 15 8 6.1 3.4 | -11.4 11.5 225 13 7 6.2 3.4
19500 -10.0 14.0 220 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -10.1 13.8 225 13 7 6.3 3.5
19000 -8.6 16.5 220 16 8 6.3 3.4 | -9.2 15.4 220 12 6 7.7 4.2
18500 -7.8 18.0 220 15 8 6.4 3.5 | -8.1 17.4 215 12 6 7.7 4.2
18000 -6.9 19.6 220 15 8 6.8 3.7 | -7.0 19.4 215 12 6 7.8 4.3
17500 -5.8 21.6 220 14 7 7.2 4.0 | -5.9 21.4 210 11 6 7.9 4.3
17000 -4.8 23.4 220 14 7 7.2 4.0 | -4.8 23.4 205 11 6 7.9 4.3
16500 -3.7 25.3 215 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -3.7 25.3 200 11 6 8.1 4.4
16000 -2.6 27.3 215 12 6 7.9 4.4 | -2.5 27.5 195 10 5 8.1 4.4
15500 -1.4 29.5 210 12 6 8.7 4.8 | -1.3 29.7 190 10 5 8.6 4.7
15000 -0.1 31.8 210 11 6 8.9 4.9 | 0.0 32.0 190 9 5 8.9 4.9
14500 1.2 34.2 205 11 5 9.0 4.9 | 1.3 34.3 190 9 5 9.1 5.0
14000 2.5 36.5 200 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 2.8 37.0 190 9 4 9.7 5.3
13500 3.8 38.8 195 9 5 9.0 4.9 | 4.2 39.6 190 8 4 9.7 5.3
13000 5.1 41.2 195 9 5 9.1 5.0 | 5.6 42.1 190 8 4 9.7 5.3
12500 6.5 43.7 190 8 4 9.1 5.0 | 7.1 44.8 190 8 4 9.7 5.3
12000 7.8 46.0 185 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 8.5 47.3 190 7 4 9.4 5.1
11500 9.2 48.6 180 7 4 9.3 5.1 | 9.9 49.8 190 7 4 9.5 5.2
11000 10.5 50.9 175 6 3 8.4 4.6 | 11.3 52.3 190 7 4 8.7 4.8
10500 11.7 53.1 175 5 3 9.3 5.1 | 12.5 54.5 195 7 3 9.9 5.4
10250 12.5 54.5 170 5 3 10.8 5.9 | 13.4 56.1 195 7 3 11.6 6.4
10000 13.3 55.9 170 5 3 10.0 5.5 | 14.2 57.6 195 7 3 10.0 5.5
9750 14.0 57.2 170 5 2 9.5 5.2 | 14.9 58.8 195 6 3 9.1 5.0
9500 14.7 58.5 165 5 2 10.2 5.6 | 15.6 60.1 195 6 3 9.6 5.3
9250 15.4 59.7 165 4 2 8.0 4.4 | 16.3 61.3 200 6 3 8.5 4.6
9000 16.0 60.8 165 4 2 8.4 4.6 | 16.9 62.4 200 6 3 8.7 4.8
8750 16.7 62.1 165 4 2 11.0 6.0 | 17.6 63.7 200 5 3 10.1 5.5
8500 17.5 63.5 160 4 2 10.1 5.5 | 18.3 64.9 205 5 3 9.3 5.1
8250 18.3 64.9 160 4 2 11.2 6.2 | 19.1 66.4 205 5 3 11.0 6.0
8000 19.1 66.4 160 4 2 10.5 5.8 | 19.9 67.8 210 5 3 10.4 5.7
7750 19.8 67.6 160 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 20.6 69.1 210 5 2 8.4 4.6
7500 20.5 68.9 160 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 21.2 70.2 215 5 2 8.7 4.8
7250 21.3 70.3 160 4 2 10.6 5.8 | 21.9 71.4 215 5 2 10.8 5.9
7000 22.1 71.8 160 3 2 10.9 6.0 | 22.8 73.0 220 5 2 11.5 6.3
6750 22.9 73.2 155 3 2 9.3 5.1 | 23.5 74.3 220 4 2 8.2 4.5
6500 23.5 74.3 155 3 2 9.6 5.3 | 24.1 75.4 225 4 2 8.0 4.4
6250 24.3 75.7 155 3 2 10.8 5.9 | 24.8 76.6 225 4 2 10.1 5.5
6000 25.1 77.2 155 3 1 11.5 6.3 | 25.6 78.1 225 4 2 11.0 6.0
5750 25.9 78.6 155 3 1 9.0 4.9 | 26.3 79.3 225 4 2 9.6 5.3
5500 26.6 79.9 155 3 1 12.4 6.8 | 27.0 80.6 230 3 2 8.5 4.6
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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