258
UXUS97 KBOU 210119
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1818 MST WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2024
THIS FORECAST IS FOR THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2024:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 63.3 F/17.4 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... POOR
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 184 FT/MIN (0.9 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 7915 FT MSL (2625 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 59.0 F/15.5 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... NONE
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 6946 FT MSL (1656 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 11/22....... POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1700 MST)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1700 MST)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 44970 FT MSL (39680 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 11/22.......... POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:51:47 / 16:39:16 MST
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 9 HR 47 MIN 29 SEC (587 MIN 29 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 11:45:31 MST... 29.99 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 11/21/2024 AT 0500 MST
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 5348 FT MSL (58 FT AGL)
ADDITIONAL FREEZING LEVEL....... 12252 FT MSL (6962 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 22008 FT MSL (16718 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16509 FT MSL (11219 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +10.6
K INDEX......................... +0.8
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.7 -84.5 295 60 31 -2.7 -1.5 M M M M M
45000 -68.2 -90.8 285 79 41 4.5 2.5 M M M M M
40000 -62.3 -80.1 290 81 42 4.0 2.2 M M M M M
38000 -58.3 -72.9 290 79 41 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
36000 -53.9 -65.0 290 76 39 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
34000 -48.7 -55.7 295 71 37 7.7 4.2 M M M M M
32000 -44.1 -47.4 295 64 33 7.7 4.2 M M M M M
30000 -39.4 -38.9 295 59 30 8.1 4.4 36.5 97.8 16.2 M M
29000 -36.9 -34.4 295 57 29 8.1 4.4 35.8 96.5 15.9 M M
28000 -34.5 -30.1 295 55 28 8.0 4.4 35.3 95.5 15.6 M M
27000 -32.2 -26.0 295 53 27 7.6 4.2 34.5 94.2 15.2 M M
26000 -29.9 -21.8 295 50 26 7.6 4.2 33.6 92.5 14.7 M M
25000 -27.7 -17.9 295 48 25 7.6 4.2 32.9 91.2 14.3 M M
24000 -25.4 -13.7 295 45 23 7.5 4.1 32.1 89.8 13.8 M M
23000 -23.2 -9.8 300 43 22 7.5 4.1 31.2 88.2 13.2 M M
22000 -20.9 -5.6 300 40 20 7.5 4.1 30.4 86.8 12.7 M M
21000 -18.7 -1.7 300 38 19 7.3 4.0 29.6 85.3 12.1 M M
20000 -16.6 2.1 305 37 19 7.3 4.0 28.7 83.6 11.5 M M
19500 -15.5 4.1 305 36 19 7.3 4.0 28.3 82.9 11.2 M M
19000 -14.4 6.1 305 36 18 7.3 4.0 27.9 82.2 10.9 M M
18500 -13.3 8.1 305 36 18 7.7 4.2 27.5 81.5 10.6 M M
18000 -12.1 10.2 310 36 18 7.7 4.2 27.2 80.9 10.4 M M
17500 -11.0 12.2 310 36 18 7.4 4.1 26.8 80.2 10.1 M M
17000 -9.9 14.2 310 36 18 7.3 4.0 26.4 79.5 9.8 M M
16500 -8.3 17.1 310 36 18 7.3 4.0 25.7 78.3 9.3 M M
16000 -7.2 19.0 310 35 18 7.3 4.0 25.3 77.6 8.9 M M
15500 -6.1 21.0 310 35 18 6.9 3.8 24.9 76.9 8.6 M M
15000 -5.1 22.8 310 34 17 6.5 3.6 24.4 75.9 8.2 M M
14500 -4.2 24.4 310 33 17 6.5 3.6 23.8 74.9 7.7 M M
14000 -3.2 26.2 310 31 16 6.5 3.5 23.3 73.9 7.3 M M
13500 -2.2 28.0 310 30 15 6.4 3.5 22.7 72.9 6.8 M M
13000 -1.3 29.7 310 28 14 6.2 3.4 22.2 71.9 6.3 M M
12500 -0.4 31.3 305 25 13 6.3 3.4 21.6 70.9 5.8 M M
12000 0.6 33.1 305 23 12 5.8 3.2 21.0 69.8 5.3 M M
11500 1.5 34.7 300 20 10 5.9 3.2 20.4 68.7 4.8 M M
11000 2.4 36.3 300 17 9 6.1 3.3 19.8 67.6 4.2 M M
10500 3.3 37.9 295 15 8 6.4 3.5 19.2 66.6 3.7 M M
10250 3.7 38.7 295 14 7 2.3 1.3 18.9 65.9 3.4 M M
10000 3.8 38.8 295 14 7 4.0 2.2 18.2 64.7 2.8 M M
9750 4.3 39.7 290 12 6 8.9 4.9 18.0 64.5 2.6 M M
9500 4.9 40.8 285 10 5 7.2 3.9 17.9 64.2 2.5 M M
9250 5.4 41.7 280 9 5 4.7 2.6 17.6 63.7 2.2 M M
9000 5.7 42.3 280 9 5 3.9 2.1 17.1 62.8 1.8 M M
8750 6.1 43.0 275 8 4 7.2 4.0 16.8 62.2 1.5 M M
8500 6.6 43.9 270 8 4 5.9 3.2 16.6 61.9 1.3 M M
8250 6.9 44.4 265 7 4 2.0 1.1 16.1 61.1 0.8 M M
8000 7.0 44.6 265 7 4 1.6 0.9 15.5 59.9 0.2 M M
7750 7.1 44.8 265 7 3 0.6 0.3 14.9 58.8 -0.4 178 0.9
7500 7.1 44.8 265 7 3 -0.7 -0.4 14.1 57.4 -1.2 171 0.9
7250 7.0 44.6 270 6 3 -1.1 -0.6 13.3 55.9 -2.0 165 0.8
7000 7.0 44.6 270 6 3 -0.1 -0.0 12.5 54.4 -2.8 160 0.8
6750 6.9 44.4 275 5 3 -3.6 -2.0 11.7 53.0 -3.6 155 0.8
6500 6.5 43.7 275 5 2 -5.2 -2.9 10.5 50.9 -4.8 160 0.8
6250 6.2 43.2 270 4 2 -2.5 -1.4 9.5 49.1 -5.8 161 0.8
6000 6.0 42.8 265 4 2 -4.1 -2.3 8.5 47.3 -6.8 161 0.8
5750 5.2 41.4 250 3 2 -22.7 -12.5 7.0 44.5 -8.3 178 0.9
5500 2.2 36.0 215 3 1 -50.8 -27.9 3.4 38.1 -12.0 258 1.3
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
11/21/2024 AT 0800 MST | 11/21/2024 AT 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +7.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.9
CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -2.5 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -4.6
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 295 57 29 -1.6 -0.9 | -65.3 -85.5 295 52 27 -0.7 -0.4
45000 -67.2 -89.0 285 74 38 3.6 2.0 | -66.0 -86.8 285 70 36 2.8 1.5
40000 -62.4 -80.3 285 74 38 3.3 1.8 | -62.1 -79.8 285 71 36 2.0 1.1
38000 -58.5 -73.3 290 73 38 7.5 4.1 | -58.2 -72.8 285 69 36 7.3 4.0
36000 -53.4 -64.1 290 72 37 7.5 4.1 | -53.8 -64.8 285 67 35 7.3 4.0
34000 -48.8 -55.8 290 69 36 8.0 4.4 | -49.2 -56.6 290 65 33 8.2 4.5
32000 -43.9 -47.0 290 64 33 8.0 4.4 | -44.3 -47.7 290 61 31 8.2 4.5
30000 -39.2 -38.6 290 58 30 7.7 4.2 | -39.4 -38.9 290 57 29 7.9 4.3
29000 -36.9 -34.4 290 55 28 7.7 4.2 | -36.5 -33.7 290 54 28 7.9 4.4
28000 -34.6 -30.3 290 52 27 7.7 4.2 | -34.1 -29.4 290 52 27 8.0 4.4
27000 -32.3 -26.1 290 49 25 7.7 4.2 | -31.8 -25.2 290 50 26 7.5 4.1
26000 -30.0 -22.0 290 47 24 7.7 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 290 48 25 7.5 4.1
25000 -27.7 -17.9 290 45 23 7.7 4.2 | -27.4 -17.3 290 46 24 7.5 4.1
24000 -25.4 -13.7 295 43 22 7.8 4.3 | -25.1 -13.2 290 44 23 7.8 4.3
23000 -23.1 -9.6 295 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -22.8 -9.0 295 42 22 7.8 4.3
22000 -20.8 -5.4 295 39 20 7.7 4.2 | -20.5 -4.9 295 40 21 7.8 4.3
21000 -18.5 -1.3 295 37 19 7.3 4.0 | -18.2 -0.8 295 38 20 7.7 4.2
20000 -16.4 2.5 300 35 18 7.3 4.0 | -15.9 3.4 295 37 19 7.7 4.2
19500 -15.3 4.5 300 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -14.8 5.4 295 36 18 7.7 4.2
19000 -14.2 6.4 300 32 17 7.2 4.0 | -13.6 7.5 295 35 18 7.6 4.2
18500 -13.2 8.2 300 31 16 6.7 3.7 | -12.5 9.5 295 34 17 7.3 4.0
18000 -11.7 10.9 300 30 15 6.8 3.7 | -11.4 11.5 295 33 17 7.3 4.0
17500 -10.7 12.7 300 29 15 6.8 3.7 | -10.4 13.3 295 31 16 6.8 3.8
17000 -9.7 14.5 305 28 14 6.8 3.7 | -9.3 15.3 295 30 16 6.8 3.7
16500 -8.6 16.5 305 27 14 6.8 3.7 | -8.3 17.1 295 29 15 6.6 3.6
16000 -7.6 18.3 305 27 14 6.8 3.7 | -7.4 18.7 295 28 14 6.4 3.5
15500 -6.6 20.1 305 26 13 6.7 3.7 | -6.4 20.5 295 26 14 6.4 3.5
15000 -5.6 21.9 305 25 13 6.7 3.7 | -5.0 23.0 295 24 13 6.5 3.6
14500 -4.6 23.7 305 25 13 6.6 3.6 | -4.0 24.8 295 23 12 6.5 3.6
14000 -3.6 25.5 305 24 12 6.4 3.5 | -3.0 26.6 295 22 11 6.5 3.6
13500 -2.7 27.1 305 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -2.0 28.4 295 21 11 6.6 3.6
13000 -1.7 28.9 305 22 11 6.4 3.5 | -1.0 30.2 295 20 10 6.7 3.7
12500 -0.7 30.7 305 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -0.0 32.0 290 19 10 6.7 3.7
12000 0.2 32.4 300 20 10 6.2 3.4 | 1.0 33.8 290 17 9 6.6 3.6
11500 1.2 34.2 300 18 9 6.2 3.4 | 2.0 35.6 290 16 8 6.6 3.6
11000 2.1 35.8 300 16 8 6.2 3.4 | 3.0 37.4 285 15 8 6.3 3.4
10500 3.0 37.4 295 15 7 6.2 3.4 | 3.9 39.0 285 14 7 5.7 3.1
10250 3.4 38.1 295 14 7 1.6 0.9 | 4.2 39.6 285 13 7 1.9 1.0
10000 3.4 38.1 295 14 7 3.5 1.9 | 4.4 39.9 285 13 7 4.6 2.5
9750 4.0 39.2 290 13 7 8.9 4.9 | 4.9 40.8 280 12 6 9.1 5.0
9500 4.6 40.3 285 12 6 6.6 3.6 | 5.5 41.9 280 11 6 6.5 3.6
9250 5.0 41.0 285 11 6 3.3 1.8 | 5.9 42.6 280 11 5 3.3 1.8
9000 5.1 41.2 285 11 5 2.4 1.3 | 6.1 43.0 280 10 5 3.3 1.8
8750 5.4 41.7 280 10 5 5.1 2.8 | 6.4 43.5 275 9 5 6.0 3.3
8500 5.8 42.4 275 8 4 4.1 2.2 | 6.9 44.4 270 8 4 4.5 2.4
8250 6.0 42.8 275 8 4 1.7 0.9 | 7.1 44.8 270 7 4 2.1 1.1
8000 6.1 43.0 275 7 4 1.7 0.9 | 7.2 45.0 270 6 3 2.4 1.3
7750 6.2 43.2 275 6 3 2.4 1.3 | 7.4 45.3 265 6 3 3.1 1.7
7500 6.4 43.5 270 5 2 2.2 1.2 | 7.6 45.7 250 4 2 2.1 1.1
7250 6.5 43.7 270 4 2 1.3 0.7 | 7.7 45.9 245 4 2 0.9 0.5
7000 6.6 43.9 270 4 2 1.7 0.9 | 7.8 46.0 240 3 2 1.1 0.6
6750 6.8 44.2 270 3 2 1.0 0.5 | 7.9 46.2 230 3 1 1.6 0.9
6500 6.7 44.1 245 2 1 -1.2 -0.7 | 8.0 46.4 200 3 1 1.8 1.0
6250 6.6 43.9 240 2 1 -1.3 -0.7 | 8.1 46.6 190 3 2 1.5 0.8
6000 6.5 43.7 225 1 1 -4.1 -2.3 | 8.2 46.8 180 3 2 1.0 0.6
5750 5.6 42.1 235 1 1 -21.6 -11.8 | 8.4 47.1 170 3 2 6.0 3.3
5500 3.1 37.6 215 2 1 -40.8 -22.4 | 9.2 48.6 170 3 1 16.0 8.8
11/21/2024 AT 1400 MST | 11/21/2024 AT 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.8
CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +1.9 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -0.4
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.4 -85.7 295 49 25 -0.6 -0.3 | -65.6 -86.1 290 51 26 0.5 0.3
45000 -66.1 -87.0 285 75 39 2.4 1.3 | -64.8 -84.6 290 71 37 1.3 0.7
40000 -62.9 -81.2 285 68 35 1.5 0.8 | -62.8 -81.0 290 61 31 0.7 0.4
38000 -58.6 -73.5 285 65 34 7.9 4.3 | -58.7 -73.7 285 60 31 8.0 4.4
36000 -53.9 -65.0 285 62 32 7.9 4.3 | -53.9 -65.0 285 60 31 8.0 4.4
34000 -49.1 -56.4 285 59 30 8.1 4.4 | -49.1 -56.4 285 58 30 8.1 4.4
32000 -44.3 -47.7 285 55 28 8.1 4.4 | -44.3 -47.7 290 54 28 8.1 4.4
30000 -39.4 -38.9 290 51 26 8.3 4.6 | -39.4 -38.9 290 49 25 8.2 4.5
29000 -36.9 -34.4 290 49 25 8.3 4.6 | -36.3 -33.3 290 45 23 8.2 4.5
28000 -33.8 -28.8 290 47 24 8.4 4.6 | -33.9 -29.0 290 43 22 8.3 4.5
27000 -31.4 -24.5 290 45 23 7.7 4.2 | -31.5 -24.7 290 40 21 7.6 4.2
26000 -29.1 -20.4 295 44 23 7.7 4.2 | -29.3 -20.7 290 38 20 7.7 4.2
25000 -26.8 -16.2 295 43 22 7.7 4.2 | -27.0 -16.6 295 36 19 7.7 4.2
24000 -24.6 -12.3 295 42 22 7.5 4.1 | -24.7 -12.5 295 35 18 7.8 4.3
23000 -22.3 -8.1 295 41 21 7.5 4.1 | -22.4 -8.3 295 34 17 7.8 4.3
22000 -20.1 -4.2 295 39 20 7.5 4.1 | -20.0 -4.0 295 33 17 7.8 4.3
21000 -17.9 -0.2 295 38 20 7.7 4.2 | -17.7 0.1 295 32 17 7.8 4.3
20000 -15.6 3.9 295 37 19 7.7 4.2 | -15.4 4.3 295 32 16 7.8 4.3
19500 -14.4 6.1 295 36 18 7.7 4.2 | -14.2 6.4 300 31 16 7.8 4.3
19000 -13.3 8.1 295 35 18 7.7 4.3 | -13.1 8.4 300 31 16 7.8 4.3
18500 -12.1 10.2 295 34 17 7.9 4.3 | -11.9 10.6 300 31 16 7.7 4.2
18000 -11.0 12.2 295 33 17 7.9 4.3 | -10.8 12.6 300 30 16 7.7 4.2
17500 -9.8 14.4 295 32 16 7.5 4.1 | -9.6 14.7 300 30 15 7.6 4.2
17000 -8.7 16.3 300 31 16 7.5 4.1 | -8.5 16.7 300 29 15 7.6 4.2
16500 -7.6 18.3 300 30 15 7.4 4.0 | -7.4 18.7 300 29 15 7.5 4.1
16000 -6.5 20.3 300 29 15 7.3 4.0 | -6.3 20.7 300 28 14 7.3 4.0
15500 -5.5 22.1 300 28 14 7.2 4.0 | -5.2 22.6 300 27 14 7.3 4.0
15000 -4.4 24.1 300 27 14 7.0 3.8 | -4.1 24.6 300 27 14 7.0 3.8
14500 -3.4 25.9 300 26 13 7.0 3.9 | -3.1 26.4 300 26 13 7.1 3.9
14000 -2.3 27.9 300 25 13 6.8 3.8 | -1.6 29.1 295 24 13 6.5 3.5
13500 -1.3 29.7 300 24 12 6.8 3.8 | -0.6 30.9 295 23 12 6.4 3.5
13000 0.3 32.5 295 23 12 7.0 3.8 | 0.3 32.5 295 21 11 6.3 3.5
12500 1.3 34.3 295 22 11 7.0 3.9 | 1.3 34.3 295 19 10 6.4 3.5
12000 2.4 36.3 295 21 11 7.5 4.1 | 2.3 36.1 295 17 9 6.9 3.8
11500 3.6 38.5 290 20 10 7.5 4.1 | 3.3 37.9 295 14 7 6.9 3.8
11000 4.7 40.5 290 19 10 7.5 4.1 | 4.4 39.9 295 13 7 7.5 4.1
10500 5.8 42.4 290 19 10 6.8 3.7 | 5.5 41.9 295 12 6 6.9 3.8
10250 6.2 43.2 290 19 10 2.4 1.3 | 5.9 42.6 300 12 6 3.7 2.0
10000 6.4 43.5 290 19 10 4.8 2.6 | 6.2 43.2 300 12 6 6.9 3.8
9750 7.0 44.6 290 19 10 9.2 5.1 | 7.0 44.6 300 13 7 11.2 6.2
9500 7.6 45.7 290 19 10 6.8 3.8 | 7.8 46.0 300 14 7 8.8 4.8
9250 8.0 46.4 290 18 9 3.2 1.7 | 8.3 46.9 300 15 8 4.5 2.5
9000 8.2 46.8 285 18 9 2.6 1.4 | 8.5 47.3 295 15 8 4.0 2.2
8750 8.5 47.3 285 17 9 5.0 2.7 | 9.0 48.2 295 15 8 7.1 3.9
8500 8.8 47.8 285 15 8 3.6 2.0 | 9.4 48.9 295 15 8 4.8 2.6
8250 9.0 48.2 285 14 7 1.5 0.8 | 9.6 49.3 295 15 8 1.3 0.7
8000 9.1 48.4 280 12 6 1.5 0.8 | 9.7 49.5 290 14 7 1.3 0.7
7750 9.2 48.6 280 10 5 2.5 1.4 | 9.9 49.8 290 13 7 2.8 1.5
7500 9.4 48.9 275 8 4 1.7 0.9 | 10.1 50.2 290 11 6 2.3 1.2
7250 9.4 48.9 270 7 3 0.5 0.3 | 10.2 50.4 290 10 5 1.0 0.6
7000 9.5 49.1 260 5 3 0.5 0.3 | 10.3 50.5 285 9 5 1.3 0.7
6750 9.5 49.1 250 4 2 1.4 0.8 | 10.3 50.5 285 8 4 0.9 0.5
6500 9.7 49.5 235 3 2 3.4 1.9 | 10.4 50.7 285 6 3 1.6 0.9
6250 10.0 50.0 225 2 1 4.2 2.3 | 10.5 50.9 280 5 3 2.0 1.1
6000 10.2 50.4 205 2 1 3.0 1.6 | 10.7 51.3 275 4 2 2.7 1.5
5750 10.5 50.9 200 2 1 6.3 3.4 | 10.7 51.3 265 2 1 -6.0 -3.3
5500 11.3 52.3 195 2 1 14.8 8.1 | 9.5 49.1 230 1 1 -22.9 -12.5
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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