476
UXUS97 KBOU 230005
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1804 MDT SATURDAY, MARCH 22, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 23, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 44.3 F/6.8 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 763 FT/MIN (3.9 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 15787 FT MSL (10479 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 63.0 F/17.7 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 0930 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 13309 FT MSL (8001 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 03/24....... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 34056 FT MSL (28748 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 03/24.......... POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:57:01 / 19:14:41 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 12 HR 17 MIN 40 SEC (737 MIN 40 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:05:51 MDT... 51.56 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/23/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 5532 FT MSL (224 FT AGL)
ADDITIONAL FREEZING LEVEL....... 5978 FT MSL (670 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16784 FT MSL (11476 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16723 FT MSL (11416 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +1.9
K INDEX......................... -14.4
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.7 -70.1 290 26 14 -0.1 -0.0 M M M M M
45000 -56.8 -70.2 285 49 25 -0.1 -0.0 M M M M M
40000 -60.4 -76.7 285 59 30 -2.6 -1.4 M M M M M
38000 -60.8 -77.4 285 64 33 3.8 2.1 M M M M M
36000 -58.4 -73.1 280 73 38 3.9 2.2 M M M M M
34000 -56.1 -69.0 275 82 42 5.0 2.7 M M M M M
32000 -51.9 -61.4 280 81 42 7.0 3.9 M M M M M
30000 -47.1 -52.8 280 79 40 8.0 4.4 28.9 84.0 8.7 M M
29000 -44.8 -48.6 285 76 39 7.9 4.3 28.0 82.4 8.2 M M
28000 -42.4 -44.3 285 74 38 7.9 4.3 27.3 81.1 7.7 M M
27000 -40.0 -40.0 290 72 37 7.9 4.3 26.7 80.0 7.3 M M
26000 -37.8 -36.0 290 70 36 7.5 4.1 25.8 78.4 6.7 M M
25000 -35.5 -31.9 295 68 35 7.5 4.1 24.9 76.8 6.1 M M
24000 -33.3 -27.9 295 66 34 7.5 4.1 24.1 75.4 5.5 M M
23000 -31.0 -23.8 300 63 33 7.7 4.2 23.3 73.9 4.9 M M
22000 -28.7 -19.7 300 61 31 7.7 4.2 22.5 72.5 4.3 M M
21000 -26.5 -15.7 300 58 30 7.7 4.2 21.8 71.3 3.8 M M
20000 -24.2 -11.6 300 56 29 7.7 4.2 21.0 69.9 3.2 M M
19500 -23.0 -9.4 300 55 28 7.7 4.2 20.7 69.2 2.9 M M
19000 -21.9 -7.4 300 53 28 7.7 4.2 20.3 68.6 2.6 M M
18500 -20.7 -5.3 300 52 27 7.7 4.2 20.0 68.0 2.3 M M
18000 -19.6 -3.3 300 51 26 6.9 3.8 19.6 67.2 2.0 M M
17500 -18.6 -1.5 300 49 25 6.9 3.8 19.1 66.4 1.5 M M
17000 -17.6 0.3 300 48 25 7.1 3.9 18.6 65.5 1.2 M M
16500 -16.5 2.3 300 46 24 7.1 3.9 18.2 64.7 0.8 M M
16000 -15.4 4.3 300 45 23 6.7 3.7 17.7 63.9 0.4 M M
15500 -14.1 6.6 300 42 22 5.8 3.2 16.8 62.2 -0.5 729 3.7
15000 -13.2 8.2 300 40 21 6.0 3.3 16.1 61.0 -1.1 688 3.5
14500 -12.3 9.9 300 39 20 6.1 3.3 15.5 59.9 -1.6 646 3.3
14000 -11.4 11.5 300 38 20 5.8 3.2 14.9 58.8 -2.2 604 3.1
13500 -10.6 12.9 300 37 19 5.4 3.0 14.2 57.5 -2.9 564 2.9
13000 -9.8 14.4 305 37 19 4.9 2.7 13.5 56.3 -3.5 526 2.7
12500 -9.1 15.6 305 35 18 4.0 2.2 12.6 54.6 -4.4 492 2.5
12000 -8.6 16.5 305 33 17 4.1 2.3 11.6 52.9 -5.3 460 2.3
11500 -7.9 17.8 305 31 16 4.5 2.4 10.8 51.4 -6.1 426 2.2
11000 -7.3 18.9 305 29 15 4.5 2.5 9.9 49.9 -7.0 392 2.0
10500 -6.6 20.1 305 27 14 4.5 2.5 9.1 48.4 -7.8 357 1.8
10250 -6.3 20.7 305 26 13 5.2 2.9 8.7 47.7 -8.2 339 1.7
10000 -5.9 21.4 305 25 13 2.7 1.5 8.3 47.0 -8.6 321 1.6
9750 -5.8 21.6 305 25 13 2.9 1.6 7.7 45.8 -9.3 311 1.6
9500 -5.4 22.3 305 25 13 5.7 3.1 7.3 45.1 -9.7 292 1.5
9250 -5.1 22.8 305 24 12 4.9 2.7 6.9 44.5 -10.1 274 1.4
9000 -4.7 23.5 305 24 12 4.2 2.3 6.5 43.8 -10.5 257 1.3
8750 -4.5 23.9 305 23 12 4.1 2.2 6.1 43.0 -11.0 241 1.2
8500 -4.1 24.6 305 22 11 4.5 2.5 5.7 42.2 -11.4 224 1.1
8250 -3.8 25.2 305 21 11 4.5 2.5 5.3 41.5 -11.9 207 1.1
8000 -3.5 25.7 305 19 10 4.5 2.5 4.9 40.8 -12.3 190 1.0
7750 -3.2 26.2 310 17 9 5.2 2.9 4.5 40.1 -12.7 173 0.9
7500 -2.8 27.0 315 15 8 6.1 3.3 4.2 39.5 -13.1 153 0.8
7250 -2.3 27.9 325 14 7 7.2 4.0 3.9 39.0 -13.4 132 0.7
7000 -1.7 28.9 335 13 7 8.2 4.5 3.8 38.8 -13.6 107 0.5
6750 -1.1 30.0 345 13 7 8.0 4.4 3.6 38.6 -13.7 82 0.4
6500 -0.6 30.9 350 14 7 5.6 3.1 3.5 38.2 -14.0 59 0.3
6250 -0.3 31.5 360 13 7 3.4 1.9 3.0 37.4 -14.5 43 0.2
6000 -0.1 31.8 010 11 6 4.4 2.4 2.6 36.6 -15.0 28 0.1
5750 0.2 32.4 025 10 5 1.9 1.1 2.1 35.8 -15.5 13 0.1
5500 0.0 32.0 040 6 3 -5.4 -3.0 1.3 34.3 -16.4 10 0.1
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/23/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 03/23/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +7.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.3
CINH... -0.6 K INDEX... -6.5 | CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +0.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.1 -70.8 275 27 14 0.7 0.4 | -57.5 -71.5 290 29 15 0.7 0.4
45000 -56.0 -68.8 295 52 27 0.7 0.4 | -56.4 -69.5 300 51 26 0.7 0.4
40000 -58.7 -73.7 285 61 31 -2.1 -1.2 | -57.6 -71.7 300 55 29 -0.9 -0.5
38000 -59.3 -74.7 280 66 34 2.3 1.3 | -57.8 -72.0 295 56 29 1.4 0.8
36000 -57.8 -72.0 275 73 38 2.4 1.3 | -56.9 -70.4 295 54 28 1.5 0.8
34000 -56.3 -69.3 270 81 42 3.0 1.6 | -56.0 -68.8 290 53 27 2.1 1.2
32000 -53.1 -63.6 275 75 38 5.6 3.1 | -53.0 -63.4 295 53 27 5.2 2.8
30000 -49.2 -56.6 280 67 35 8.9 4.9 | -49.4 -56.9 305 54 28 7.4 4.0
29000 -46.6 -51.9 280 66 34 8.7 4.8 | -47.2 -53.0 310 54 28 7.3 4.0
28000 -44.0 -47.2 285 65 33 8.7 4.8 | -45.1 -49.2 310 54 28 7.3 4.0
27000 -41.4 -42.5 285 64 33 8.7 4.8 | -42.9 -45.2 315 54 28 7.3 4.0
26000 -38.9 -38.0 290 63 32 8.1 4.4 | -40.4 -40.7 315 54 28 8.5 4.7
25000 -36.5 -33.7 295 61 31 8.1 4.4 | -37.9 -36.2 315 52 27 8.5 4.7
24000 -34.1 -29.4 295 60 31 8.1 4.4 | -35.3 -31.5 315 51 26 8.4 4.6
23000 -31.7 -25.1 300 58 30 8.1 4.4 | -32.7 -26.9 315 50 26 9.0 5.0
22000 -29.3 -20.7 300 56 29 8.1 4.4 | -30.0 -22.0 310 49 25 9.0 5.0
21000 -26.8 -16.2 305 55 28 8.0 4.4 | -27.3 -17.1 310 48 25 8.7 4.8
20000 -24.5 -12.1 305 53 27 7.7 4.2 | -24.8 -12.6 310 47 24 8.2 4.5
19500 -23.4 -10.1 305 52 27 7.7 4.2 | -23.6 -10.5 310 47 24 8.2 4.5
19000 -22.3 -8.1 305 51 26 7.7 4.2 | -22.4 -8.3 310 47 24 8.2 4.5
18500 -21.1 -6.0 305 51 26 7.7 4.2 | -21.2 -6.2 310 46 24 7.9 4.4
18000 -20.0 -4.0 305 50 26 7.1 3.9 | -20.1 -4.2 310 46 23 6.9 3.8
17500 -19.0 -2.2 305 49 25 7.1 3.9 | -19.1 -2.4 310 45 23 7.0 3.9
17000 -17.4 0.7 305 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -17.6 0.3 310 44 23 6.4 3.5
16500 -16.4 2.5 305 47 24 6.8 3.7 | -16.6 2.1 310 43 22 6.4 3.5
16000 -15.4 4.3 310 46 24 6.3 3.4 | -15.7 3.7 310 42 22 6.4 3.5
15500 -14.5 5.9 310 45 23 6.3 3.4 | -14.7 5.5 310 41 21 6.4 3.5
15000 -13.5 7.7 310 44 22 6.0 3.3 | -13.8 7.2 310 40 21 6.3 3.5
14500 -12.6 9.3 310 42 22 5.9 3.3 | -12.8 9.0 310 39 20 6.3 3.5
14000 -11.8 10.8 310 41 21 5.6 3.1 | -11.9 10.6 310 37 19 6.5 3.6
13500 -11.0 12.2 310 39 20 5.3 2.9 | -10.9 12.4 310 36 18 6.7 3.7
13000 -10.2 13.6 310 37 19 5.1 2.8 | -9.9 14.2 310 34 18 6.4 3.5
12500 -9.4 15.1 310 34 18 4.7 2.6 | -9.0 15.8 310 33 17 6.3 3.4
12000 -8.7 16.3 310 31 16 4.7 2.6 | -8.0 17.6 310 31 16 6.3 3.5
11500 -8.0 17.6 305 28 14 4.8 2.6 | -7.1 19.2 310 29 15 6.4 3.5
11000 -7.3 18.9 305 25 13 5.2 2.8 | -6.1 21.0 310 26 14 6.3 3.5
10500 -6.5 20.3 305 22 11 5.7 3.1 | -5.2 22.6 310 24 12 6.6 3.6
10250 -6.1 21.0 305 21 11 6.0 3.3 | -4.7 23.5 310 23 12 4.7 2.6
10000 -5.7 21.7 305 20 10 3.8 2.1 | -4.5 23.9 310 23 12 3.5 1.9
9750 -5.4 22.3 305 19 10 4.4 2.4 | -4.1 24.6 310 22 11 6.2 3.4
9500 -5.0 23.0 305 18 9 6.9 3.8 | -3.6 25.5 305 19 10 7.5 4.1
9250 -4.5 23.9 300 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -3.1 26.4 305 17 9 6.0 3.3
9000 -4.2 24.4 300 15 8 2.2 1.2 | -2.7 27.1 300 15 8 4.1 2.2
8750 -4.1 24.6 295 13 7 2.3 1.3 | -2.4 27.7 300 13 7 5.5 3.0
8500 -3.8 25.2 295 12 6 4.6 2.5 | -1.9 28.6 295 10 5 7.0 3.8
8250 -3.6 25.5 290 11 6 3.3 1.8 | -1.4 29.5 290 8 4 6.1 3.3
8000 -3.4 25.9 290 9 5 2.1 1.2 | -1.0 30.2 275 5 3 5.2 2.9
7750 -3.2 26.2 280 6 3 2.9 1.6 | -0.6 30.9 255 4 2 8.0 4.4
7500 -3.0 26.6 275 5 3 3.5 1.9 | 0.1 32.2 245 3 2 9.5 5.2
7250 -2.7 27.1 265 4 2 3.5 1.9 | 0.7 33.3 230 3 1 8.2 4.5
7000 -2.5 27.5 240 3 2 1.7 1.0 | 1.3 34.3 220 3 1 6.4 3.5
6750 -2.3 27.9 205 3 1 7.8 4.3 | 1.9 35.4 210 3 1 12.2 6.7
6500 -1.5 29.3 195 2 1 10.6 5.8 | 3.0 37.4 215 2 1 13.5 7.4
6250 -0.9 30.4 180 3 1 6.7 3.7 | 3.8 38.8 210 3 1 9.2 5.1
6000 -0.4 31.3 175 4 2 6.8 3.8 | 4.5 40.1 205 3 1 9.0 4.9
5750 0.2 32.4 170 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 5.3 41.5 200 3 1 14.3 7.8
5500 1.2 34.2 160 4 2 18.5 10.1 | 6.9 44.4 200 2 1 29.4 16.1
03/23/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 03/23/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.1
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +2.3 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +5.6
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.6 -73.5 295 30 15 1.3 0.7 | -58.4 -73.1 295 36 19 0.6 0.3
45000 -56.6 -69.9 305 47 24 1.5 0.8 | -57.5 -71.5 310 48 25 0.8 0.5
40000 -57.9 -72.2 310 60 31 -1.0 -0.5 | -59.9 -75.8 320 65 34 -1.7 -0.9
38000 -58.0 -72.4 315 63 32 1.1 0.6 | -60.4 -76.7 325 73 37 0.6 0.3
36000 -57.3 -71.1 320 62 32 1.2 0.6 | -60.0 -76.0 335 81 42 0.6 0.4
34000 -56.6 -69.9 330 63 33 2.9 1.6 | -59.5 -75.1 340 90 46 5.5 3.0
32000 -53.2 -63.8 340 74 38 5.9 3.2 | -54.4 -65.9 335 80 41 8.6 4.7
30000 -49.0 -56.2 345 85 44 8.6 4.7 | -48.5 -55.3 330 70 36 9.3 5.1
29000 -46.5 -51.7 340 83 43 8.4 4.6 | -45.7 -50.3 330 66 34 9.4 5.1
28000 -44.0 -47.2 340 80 41 8.4 4.6 | -42.9 -45.2 330 62 32 9.4 5.1
27000 -41.5 -42.7 340 77 40 8.1 4.5 | -40.1 -40.2 330 58 30 8.8 4.8
26000 -39.3 -38.7 335 68 35 7.1 3.9 | -37.7 -35.9 325 54 28 8.0 4.4
25000 -37.2 -35.0 330 60 31 7.1 3.9 | -35.3 -31.5 325 49 25 8.0 4.4
24000 -35.0 -31.0 320 51 26 7.3 4.0 | -32.9 -27.2 325 45 23 8.2 4.5
23000 -32.2 -26.0 315 49 25 9.8 5.4 | -30.2 -22.4 320 44 22 8.9 4.9
22000 -29.3 -20.7 310 47 24 9.8 5.4 | -27.6 -17.7 315 43 22 8.9 4.9
21000 -26.3 -15.3 305 46 24 9.4 5.2 | -24.9 -12.8 310 42 22 8.2 4.5
20000 -23.6 -10.5 300 44 23 9.1 5.0 | -22.6 -8.7 310 41 21 7.9 4.3
19500 -22.3 -8.1 300 43 22 9.1 5.0 | -21.4 -6.5 310 40 21 7.9 4.3
19000 -20.9 -5.6 295 42 21 9.1 5.0 | -20.2 -4.4 305 40 21 7.9 4.3
18500 -19.5 -3.1 295 41 21 8.8 4.9 | -19.1 -2.4 305 39 20 7.9 4.3
18000 -18.3 -0.9 300 41 21 8.5 4.7 | -17.9 -0.2 305 38 20 7.8 4.3
17500 -17.0 1.4 300 42 22 8.7 4.8 | -16.7 1.9 305 38 19 7.8 4.3
17000 -15.9 3.4 300 42 22 6.8 3.7 | -15.6 3.9 305 38 19 7.7 4.2
16500 -14.8 5.4 300 41 21 7.0 3.8 | -14.4 6.1 305 39 20 7.8 4.3
16000 -13.8 7.2 305 39 20 6.1 3.3 | -13.3 8.1 310 40 20 7.2 4.0
15500 -13.0 8.6 305 39 20 5.7 3.1 | -12.2 10.0 305 38 20 7.1 3.9
15000 -11.7 10.9 305 38 19 5.4 3.0 | -10.6 12.9 305 37 19 7.1 3.9
14500 -10.9 12.4 305 36 19 5.4 3.0 | -9.6 14.7 305 37 19 7.1 3.9
14000 -10.1 13.8 310 36 18 5.8 3.2 | -8.5 16.7 305 36 19 6.8 3.8
13500 -9.2 15.4 305 36 19 5.9 3.2 | -7.5 18.5 305 36 18 6.8 3.7
13000 -8.4 16.9 305 37 19 6.1 3.3 | -6.5 20.3 300 35 18 6.2 3.4
12500 -7.4 18.7 305 36 18 6.2 3.4 | -5.7 21.7 300 34 17 6.0 3.3
12000 -6.5 20.3 300 35 18 5.7 3.1 | -4.8 23.4 295 33 17 6.5 3.6
11500 -5.7 21.7 295 32 17 5.4 3.0 | -3.8 25.2 295 34 18 6.8 3.7
11000 -4.9 23.2 295 30 15 6.3 3.4 | -2.8 27.0 295 35 18 6.4 3.5
10500 -3.9 25.0 290 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -1.9 28.6 290 31 16 7.0 3.8
10250 -3.4 25.9 290 22 12 2.7 1.5 | -1.4 29.5 290 30 15 2.7 1.5
10000 -3.4 25.9 290 21 11 4.0 2.2 | -1.3 29.7 290 29 15 4.4 2.4
9750 -2.7 27.1 290 18 9 10.2 5.6 | -0.7 30.7 290 26 13 9.9 5.4
9500 -2.0 28.4 290 15 8 9.3 5.1 | -0.0 32.0 290 23 12 8.8 4.8
9250 -1.4 29.5 290 12 6 8.4 4.6 | 0.6 33.1 290 20 10 7.8 4.3
9000 -0.8 30.6 290 11 6 8.1 4.4 | 1.1 34.0 290 18 9 7.4 4.1
8750 -0.1 31.8 290 10 5 10.4 5.7 | 1.8 35.2 290 17 9 9.6 5.3
8500 0.7 33.3 290 10 5 11.3 6.2 | 2.5 36.5 290 16 8 10.1 5.5
8250 1.5 34.7 290 9 5 10.0 5.5 | 3.3 37.9 290 15 8 9.8 5.4
8000 2.2 36.0 290 9 5 9.1 5.0 | 4.0 39.2 295 14 7 9.7 5.3
7750 2.9 37.2 290 9 4 9.5 5.2 | 4.8 40.6 295 13 7 10.2 5.6
7500 3.7 38.7 290 9 4 9.8 5.4 | 5.5 41.9 295 13 7 10.3 5.6
7250 4.4 39.9 290 8 4 10.2 5.6 | 6.3 43.3 295 12 6 9.8 5.4
7000 5.2 41.4 290 8 4 10.2 5.6 | 7.0 44.6 295 12 6 9.7 5.3
6750 5.9 42.6 290 8 4 10.7 5.9 | 7.7 45.9 295 12 6 9.5 5.2
6500 6.8 44.2 290 8 4 10.9 6.0 | 8.4 47.1 300 11 6 9.6 5.3
6250 7.6 45.7 290 8 4 11.0 6.0 | 9.2 48.6 300 11 6 10.0 5.5
6000 8.4 47.1 290 7 4 9.9 5.5 | 9.9 49.8 300 10 5 9.7 5.3
5750 9.2 48.6 290 7 4 14.1 7.7 | 10.6 51.1 300 10 5 10.6 5.8
5500 10.7 51.3 290 7 4 25.4 13.9 | 11.5 52.7 300 9 4 13.0 7.2
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
042613
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page