996
UXUS97 KBOU 160121
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1920 MDT SUNDAY, MARCH 15, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR MONDAY, MARCH 16, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 36.8 F/2.7 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... FAIR
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 322 FT/MIN (1.6 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 13241 FT MSL (7881 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 51.0 F/11.0 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1130 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 11793 FT MSL (6433 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 03/17...... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... DECREASING
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... 16694 FT MSL (11334 FT AGL)
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 39361 FT MSL (34001 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 03/17......... POOR
REMARKS... A LITTLE WARMER, LESS WINDY MONDAY
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:08:41 / 19:07:18 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 58 MIN 37 SEC (718 MIN 37 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:00 MDT... 48.68 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/16/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. ENTIRE AIRMASS BELOW 32 F / 0 C
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 21558 FT MSL (16198 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 15733 FT MSL (10373 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +14.1
K INDEX......................... -5.0
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.4 -73.1 330 64 33 1.1 0.6 M M M M M
45000 -56.8 -70.2 335 88 45 1.3 0.7 M M M M M
40000 -57.5 -71.5 340 95 49 -0.5 -0.3 M M M M M
38000 -57.0 -70.6 335 95 49 2.5 1.3 M M M M M
36000 -55.5 -67.9 335 91 47 2.5 1.3 M M M M M
34000 -53.6 -64.5 330 88 45 9.7 5.3 M M M M M
32000 -48.2 -54.8 330 85 44 9.0 5.0 M M M M M
30000 -42.7 -44.9 330 82 42 9.0 4.9 34.6 94.3 18.0 M M
29000 -40.0 -40.0 330 80 41 9.0 5.0 34.2 93.6 17.9 M M
28000 -37.3 -35.1 335 78 40 9.1 5.0 33.9 93.1 17.9 M M
27000 -34.6 -30.3 335 76 39 9.2 5.1 33.8 92.8 18.0 M M
26000 -32.2 -26.0 335 75 39 7.7 4.2 33.1 91.6 17.7 M M
25000 -29.9 -21.8 335 74 38 7.8 4.3 32.3 90.2 17.2 M M
24000 -27.6 -17.7 335 74 38 7.8 4.3 31.6 89.0 16.9 M M
23000 -25.6 -14.1 330 73 38 5.6 3.1 30.4 86.8 16.1 M M
22000 -24.0 -11.2 330 72 37 5.5 3.0 28.8 83.9 14.9 M M
21000 -21.9 -7.4 330 71 37 5.1 2.8 27.1 80.7 13.6 M M
20000 -20.6 -5.1 330 70 36 4.4 2.4 25.1 77.2 12.1 M M
19500 -20.0 -4.0 325 69 35 4.4 2.4 24.1 75.5 11.4 M M
19000 -19.3 -2.7 325 68 35 4.4 2.4 23.2 73.8 10.6 M M
18500 -18.6 -1.5 325 67 34 4.4 2.4 22.4 72.3 9.9 M M
18000 -18.0 -0.4 325 66 34 4.1 2.2 21.4 70.5 9.2 M M
17500 -17.4 0.7 325 65 33 4.2 2.3 20.4 68.8 8.3 M M
17000 -16.9 1.6 325 63 32 2.5 1.4 19.4 66.8 7.5 M M
16500 -16.6 2.1 325 61 32 2.3 1.2 18.1 64.5 6.4 M M
16000 -16.2 2.8 325 59 31 2.4 1.3 16.8 62.3 5.3 M M
15500 -15.8 3.6 325 57 30 2.7 1.5 15.6 60.1 4.2 M M
15000 -15.4 4.3 325 55 29 2.9 1.6 14.4 58.0 3.2 M M
14500 -14.9 5.2 325 53 27 3.9 2.1 13.4 56.1 2.3 M M
14000 -14.3 6.3 325 51 26 3.9 2.1 12.4 54.3 1.5 M M
13500 -13.8 7.2 325 48 25 2.9 1.6 11.3 52.4 0.5 M M
13000 -13.3 8.1 325 45 23 3.0 1.6 10.2 50.4 -0.5 508 2.6
12500 -12.9 8.8 325 42 22 2.9 1.6 9.1 48.4 -1.5 480 2.4
12000 -12.4 9.7 320 39 20 2.9 1.6 8.0 46.4 -2.5 452 2.3
11500 -12.0 10.4 315 36 19 3.0 1.6 6.9 44.4 -3.6 424 2.2
11000 -11.5 11.3 315 34 17 3.0 1.6 5.8 42.5 -4.6 396 2.0
10500 -10.9 12.4 310 31 16 4.8 2.6 4.9 40.8 -5.5 363 1.8
10250 -10.6 12.9 310 30 15 5.1 2.8 4.5 40.1 -5.9 345 1.8
10000 -10.2 13.6 310 29 15 3.3 1.8 4.1 39.4 -6.3 327 1.7
9750 -10.0 14.0 310 28 15 3.5 1.9 3.6 38.4 -6.9 314 1.6
9500 -9.7 14.5 310 27 14 5.4 3.0 3.2 37.7 -7.2 295 1.5
9250 -9.3 15.3 310 26 13 5.4 2.9 2.8 37.1 -7.6 276 1.4
9000 -8.9 16.0 310 25 13 3.8 2.1 2.5 36.4 -8.0 258 1.3
8750 -8.7 16.3 305 24 12 1.8 1.0 1.9 35.4 -8.6 245 1.2
8500 -8.6 16.5 305 22 11 2.1 1.2 1.3 34.3 -9.2 233 1.2
8250 -8.4 16.9 305 19 10 2.1 1.2 0.7 33.2 -9.8 221 1.1
8000 -8.2 17.2 305 17 9 2.6 1.4 0.1 32.2 -10.4 208 1.1
7750 -8.0 17.6 305 14 7 2.4 1.3 -0.4 31.2 -10.9 195 1.0
7500 -7.9 17.8 305 11 6 1.7 0.9 -1.0 30.1 -11.5 183 0.9
7250 -7.8 18.0 305 8 4 2.2 1.2 -1.6 29.0 -12.2 172 0.9
7000 -7.6 18.3 295 6 3 2.7 1.5 -2.2 28.0 -12.7 159 0.8
6750 -7.4 18.7 275 4 2 2.8 1.5 -2.7 27.1 -13.3 146 0.7
6500 -7.1 19.2 230 3 2 4.8 2.7 -3.2 26.2 -13.8 130 0.7
6250 -6.7 19.9 200 3 2 6.8 3.7 -3.5 25.7 -14.2 110 0.6
6000 -6.2 20.8 180 4 2 7.1 3.9 -3.7 25.3 -14.4 87 0.4
5750 -5.7 21.7 170 5 3 7.0 3.8 -3.9 25.0 -14.7 64 0.3
5500 -5.1 22.8 160 5 3 7.9 4.3 -4.1 24.7 -14.9 41 0.2
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/16/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 03/16/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +9.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.8
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +1.5 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +7.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.7 -71.9 335 66 34 1.2 0.6 | -57.7 -71.9 340 64 33 1.3 0.7
45000 -55.9 -68.6 335 87 45 1.3 0.7 | -55.6 -68.1 345 82 42 0.5 0.3
40000 -55.6 -68.1 345 93 48 0.2 0.1 | -56.7 -70.1 350 104 54 -0.7 -0.4
38000 -55.4 -67.7 345 92 48 0.3 0.2 | -56.2 -69.2 350 109 56 2.8 1.6
36000 -55.3 -67.5 340 87 45 0.3 0.2 | -54.5 -66.1 350 109 56 2.8 1.6
34000 -54.6 -66.3 335 83 43 8.1 4.4 | -52.7 -62.9 350 107 55 5.4 3.0
32000 -49.6 -57.3 335 80 41 8.3 4.6 | -48.6 -55.5 345 92 47 6.1 3.3
30000 -44.6 -48.3 340 78 40 9.8 5.4 | -44.7 -48.5 345 80 41 9.0 4.9
29000 -41.7 -43.1 340 77 40 9.5 5.2 | -42.0 -43.6 345 77 40 8.9 4.9
28000 -38.8 -37.8 340 77 40 9.5 5.2 | -39.3 -38.7 340 74 38 8.9 4.9
27000 -36.0 -32.8 340 77 40 9.6 5.3 | -36.7 -34.1 340 72 37 8.9 4.9
26000 -33.3 -27.9 340 76 39 8.7 4.8 | -34.0 -29.2 340 69 36 9.1 5.0
25000 -30.7 -23.3 340 76 39 8.7 4.8 | -31.3 -24.3 345 67 34 9.1 5.0
24000 -28.1 -18.6 340 75 39 8.8 4.8 | -28.5 -19.3 345 65 33 9.2 5.1
23000 -25.9 -14.6 340 74 38 6.3 3.4 | -26.0 -14.8 345 65 34 8.4 4.6
22000 -23.6 -10.5 335 73 38 6.2 3.4 | -23.5 -10.3 340 67 35 8.4 4.6
21000 -21.8 -7.2 335 72 37 5.1 2.8 | -21.0 -5.8 340 69 35 7.6 4.1
20000 -20.6 -5.1 335 70 36 3.9 2.1 | -19.7 -3.5 340 67 35 4.0 2.2
19500 -20.1 -4.2 335 69 36 3.9 2.1 | -19.1 -2.4 340 67 34 4.0 2.2
19000 -19.5 -3.1 335 68 35 3.9 2.1 | -18.5 -1.3 340 66 34 4.0 2.2
18500 -18.9 -2.0 335 68 35 3.8 2.1 | -18.0 -0.4 340 65 33 4.3 2.4
18000 -18.4 -1.1 335 66 34 3.6 2.0 | -17.5 0.5 340 63 32 1.4 0.8
17500 -17.8 -0.0 335 65 34 3.7 2.0 | -17.3 0.9 340 61 32 1.3 0.7
17000 -17.3 0.9 335 64 33 3.2 1.8 | -17.0 1.4 335 60 31 2.8 1.5
16500 -16.8 1.8 335 62 32 3.2 1.8 | -16.6 2.1 335 59 30 2.6 1.4
16000 -16.4 2.5 330 60 31 3.3 1.8 | -16.2 2.8 335 57 29 3.7 2.0
15500 -15.9 3.4 330 58 30 3.3 1.8 | -15.6 3.9 335 56 29 4.0 2.2
15000 -15.4 4.3 330 55 28 3.6 2.0 | -15.0 5.0 335 54 28 4.4 2.4
14500 -14.8 5.4 330 53 27 4.4 2.4 | -14.3 6.3 335 52 27 4.9 2.7
14000 -14.1 6.6 330 50 26 4.4 2.4 | -13.6 7.5 330 49 25 5.2 2.9
13500 -13.4 7.9 330 48 25 4.6 2.5 | -12.7 9.1 330 47 24 6.1 3.3
13000 -12.8 9.0 330 45 23 4.6 2.5 | -11.8 10.8 330 44 23 6.1 3.4
12500 -12.0 10.4 330 43 22 4.8 2.6 | -10.8 12.6 330 41 21 6.4 3.5
12000 -11.3 11.7 325 40 21 4.8 2.6 | -9.9 14.2 330 39 20 6.4 3.5
11500 -10.6 12.9 325 38 19 4.8 2.6 | -8.9 16.0 325 36 19 6.6 3.6
11000 -9.9 14.2 320 35 18 4.8 2.6 | -7.9 17.8 320 33 17 6.4 3.5
10500 -9.1 15.6 320 33 17 4.8 2.7 | -7.0 19.4 320 31 16 5.9 3.2
10250 -8.8 16.2 315 31 16 5.4 3.0 | -6.6 20.1 315 30 15 6.5 3.5
10000 -8.4 16.9 315 30 16 3.1 1.7 | -6.1 21.0 315 29 15 4.3 2.3
9750 -8.2 17.2 315 29 15 3.8 2.1 | -5.9 21.4 315 28 14 4.8 2.6
9500 -7.8 18.0 310 29 15 6.5 3.6 | -5.4 22.3 310 27 14 7.3 4.0
9250 -7.3 18.9 310 28 14 6.2 3.4 | -4.8 23.4 310 26 13 6.9 3.8
9000 -6.9 19.6 310 27 14 4.7 2.6 | -4.4 24.1 310 25 13 4.7 2.6
8750 -6.6 20.1 305 26 13 3.3 1.8 | -4.1 24.6 305 24 12 3.1 1.7
8500 -6.3 20.7 305 24 12 4.0 2.2 | -3.8 25.2 305 21 11 4.0 2.2
8250 -6.0 21.2 305 22 11 3.7 2.0 | -3.6 25.5 305 19 10 3.5 1.9
8000 -5.8 21.6 305 19 10 3.2 1.8 | -3.3 26.1 305 16 8 2.9 1.6
7750 -5.6 21.9 305 17 9 2.7 1.5 | -3.1 26.4 305 13 7 2.6 1.4
7500 -5.4 22.3 305 14 7 2.5 1.3 | -2.9 26.8 310 10 5 2.0 1.1
7250 -5.2 22.6 305 11 6 2.8 1.6 | -2.7 27.1 310 7 4 4.0 2.2
7000 -4.9 23.2 305 9 5 3.4 1.9 | -2.4 27.7 315 5 3 4.7 2.6
6750 -4.7 23.5 300 7 3 2.8 1.5 | -2.0 28.4 320 3 2 7.1 3.9
6500 -4.5 23.9 285 4 2 3.0 1.7 | -1.3 29.7 320 2 1 10.1 5.5
6250 -4.2 24.4 245 2 1 4.2 2.3 | -0.6 30.9 330 2 1 9.4 5.2
6000 -3.9 25.0 205 3 1 3.9 2.1 | 0.1 32.2 340 1 1 8.8 4.8
5750 -3.6 25.5 175 4 2 5.4 2.9 | 0.8 33.4 360 1 0 11.5 6.3
5500 -3.0 26.6 175 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 2.0 35.6 345 1 1 20.0 11.0
03/16/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 03/16/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.5
CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +8.6 | CINH... -0.3 K INDEX... +8.6
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.8 -73.8 340 67 34 1.6 0.9 | -59.0 -74.2 345 74 38 2.8 1.5
45000 -56.3 -69.3 345 84 43 0.4 0.2 | -54.9 -66.8 345 92 47 -0.9 -0.5
40000 -57.3 -71.1 355 112 57 -0.7 -0.4 | -60.3 -76.5 360 133 68 -3.6 -2.0
38000 -56.5 -69.7 355 118 60 3.7 2.0 | -59.3 -74.7 360 142 73 7.0 3.9
36000 -54.3 -65.7 355 117 60 3.7 2.0 | -55.1 -67.2 360 143 74 7.1 3.9
34000 -52.0 -61.6 350 115 59 5.6 3.1 | -50.2 -58.4 360 140 72 7.4 4.1
32000 -48.1 -54.6 350 96 50 5.7 3.1 | -45.8 -50.4 360 125 64 7.4 4.1
30000 -44.4 -47.9 345 82 42 8.5 4.7 | -41.6 -42.9 360 107 55 5.9 3.2
29000 -41.8 -43.2 345 78 40 8.5 4.7 | -39.8 -39.6 355 96 49 5.9 3.2
28000 -39.3 -38.7 345 74 38 8.5 4.7 | -38.0 -36.4 355 84 43 5.9 3.2
27000 -36.7 -34.1 340 70 36 8.4 4.6 | -36.3 -33.3 350 73 38 7.0 3.8
26000 -34.3 -29.7 345 68 35 8.3 4.5 | -33.8 -28.8 350 71 36 8.2 4.5
25000 -31.8 -25.2 345 65 34 8.3 4.5 | -31.4 -24.5 345 68 35 8.2 4.5
24000 -29.3 -20.7 345 63 33 8.3 4.5 | -28.9 -20.0 345 66 34 8.2 4.5
23000 -26.8 -16.2 345 63 33 8.5 4.7 | -26.5 -15.7 345 65 34 8.0 4.4
22000 -24.3 -11.7 345 63 33 8.5 4.7 | -24.1 -11.4 345 65 34 8.0 4.4
21000 -21.8 -7.2 340 64 33 8.0 4.4 | -21.7 -7.1 345 65 33 7.7 4.2
20000 -19.6 -3.3 340 65 33 7.2 4.0 | -19.5 -3.1 345 64 33 7.4 4.0
19500 -18.5 -1.3 340 65 34 7.2 4.0 | -17.9 -0.2 345 63 32 7.4 4.1
19000 -17.5 0.5 340 66 34 7.2 4.0 | -16.8 1.8 345 62 32 7.4 4.1
18500 -15.9 3.4 340 66 34 6.2 3.4 | -15.7 3.7 345 61 31 7.1 3.9
18000 -15.1 4.8 340 64 33 5.7 3.1 | -14.7 5.5 345 59 30 7.1 3.9
17500 -14.2 6.4 335 62 32 5.5 3.0 | -13.6 7.5 345 56 29 6.9 3.8
17000 -13.6 7.5 335 59 30 3.8 2.1 | -12.7 9.1 345 55 28 6.3 3.5
16500 -13.0 8.6 335 55 28 4.0 2.2 | -11.7 10.9 345 54 28 6.6 3.6
16000 -12.5 9.5 335 52 27 3.0 1.7 | -10.9 12.4 345 53 27 4.0 2.2
15500 -12.0 10.4 335 53 27 3.0 1.6 | -10.3 13.5 340 51 26 4.1 2.2
15000 -11.6 11.1 335 53 28 3.5 1.9 | -9.8 14.4 340 50 26 3.1 1.7
14500 -11.1 12.0 335 50 26 3.8 2.1 | -9.4 15.1 340 46 24 2.7 1.5
14000 -10.5 13.1 330 46 24 3.9 2.2 | -9.0 15.8 335 43 22 3.2 1.7
13500 -9.9 14.2 330 43 22 4.1 2.3 | -8.5 16.7 335 41 21 3.9 2.1
13000 -9.3 15.3 325 40 21 4.5 2.4 | -7.9 17.8 330 38 20 4.7 2.6
12500 -8.5 16.7 325 38 19 5.9 3.3 | -7.0 19.4 330 36 19 6.7 3.7
12000 -7.6 18.3 325 35 18 5.9 3.2 | -6.0 21.2 325 35 18 6.6 3.6
11500 -6.7 19.9 320 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -5.0 23.0 325 33 17 6.5 3.6
11000 -5.8 21.6 315 30 15 6.0 3.3 | -4.1 24.6 320 30 16 6.3 3.5
10500 -4.9 23.2 310 28 14 5.9 3.2 | -3.2 26.2 315 29 15 5.7 3.1
10250 -4.5 23.9 305 27 14 5.2 2.9 | -2.8 27.0 315 28 14 5.9 3.3
10000 -4.1 24.6 305 27 14 7.8 4.3 | -2.3 27.9 315 27 14 8.0 4.4
9750 -3.4 25.9 305 26 13 7.9 4.4 | -1.6 29.1 310 27 14 7.6 4.2
9500 -3.0 26.6 300 25 13 5.4 3.0 | -1.2 29.8 310 27 14 6.1 3.3
9250 -2.5 27.5 300 23 12 6.1 3.4 | -0.7 30.7 305 26 14 6.5 3.5
9000 -2.1 28.2 295 22 11 6.0 3.3 | -0.2 31.6 305 26 13 6.3 3.4
8750 -1.6 29.1 300 20 10 6.0 3.3 | 0.3 32.5 305 25 13 6.9 3.8
8500 -1.2 29.8 300 17 9 5.9 3.2 | 0.8 33.4 305 23 12 7.3 4.0
8250 -0.7 30.7 300 15 8 6.2 3.4 | 1.3 34.3 305 22 11 7.2 4.0
8000 -0.2 31.6 300 13 6 7.4 4.1 | 1.9 35.4 305 20 10 7.6 4.2
7750 0.4 32.7 300 11 6 8.4 4.6 | 2.5 36.5 305 19 10 8.2 4.5
7500 1.0 33.8 305 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 3.1 37.6 305 17 9 8.4 4.6
7250 1.6 34.9 305 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 3.7 38.7 310 16 8 8.7 4.8
7000 2.3 36.1 305 7 4 9.0 4.9 | 4.4 39.9 310 15 8 9.2 5.0
6750 3.0 37.4 310 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 5.1 41.2 310 14 7 8.6 4.7
6500 3.7 38.7 310 6 3 10.4 5.7 | 5.7 42.3 315 13 7 8.5 4.7
6250 4.5 40.1 315 6 3 10.3 5.7 | 6.4 43.5 315 12 6 9.6 5.2
6000 5.3 41.5 315 5 3 10.7 5.9 | 7.1 44.8 320 11 6 10.1 5.6
5750 6.1 43.0 320 5 3 9.7 5.3 | 7.9 46.2 325 10 5 9.4 5.1
5500 6.9 44.4 320 4 2 13.0 7.1 | 8.6 47.5 325 9 4 9.2 5.0
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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