138  
UXUS97 KBOU 250018  
SRGBOU  
 
SOARING FORECAST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO  
1718 MST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2024  
 
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2024:  
 
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 60.6 F/15.9 C IS REACHED...THEN  
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT  
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1164 FT/MIN (5.9 M/S)  
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 17541 FT MSL (12241 FT AGL)  
 
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 67.0 F/19.9 C  
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1100 MST  
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE  
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE  
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS  
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 10259 FT MSL (4959 FT AGL)  
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 02/26....... GOOD  
 
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR  
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1700 MST)......... NO CHANGE  
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE  
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1700 MST)................ NEITHER  
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 39251 FT MSL (33951 FT AGL)  
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 02/26.......... FAIR  
 
REMARKS...  
 
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:38:39 / 17:46:27 MST  
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 7 MIN 48 SEC (667 MIN 48 SEC)  
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:12:33 MST... 41.08 DEGREES  
 
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 02/25/2024 AT 0500 MST  
 
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 10946 FT MSL (5646 FT AGL)  
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 21560 FT MSL (16260 FT AGL)  
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 20552 FT MSL (15252 FT AGL)  
LIFTED INDEX.................... +3.8  
K INDEX......................... -23.3  
 
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -58.2 -72.8 270 77 40 -0.4 -0.2 M M M M M  
45000 -58.9 -74.0 270 84 43 -0.2 -0.1 M M M M M  
40000 -61.7 -79.1 275 91 47 -2.0 -1.1 M M M M M  
38000 -61.1 -78.0 275 91 47 5.4 3.0 M M M M M  
36000 -57.9 -72.2 275 87 45 5.4 3.0 M M M M M  
34000 -54.6 -66.3 275 83 43 7.2 3.9 M M M M M  
32000 -50.1 -58.2 275 75 39 7.5 4.1 M M M M M  
30000 -45.0 -49.0 275 67 35 8.1 4.4 30.6 87.1 8.4 M M  
29000 -42.5 -44.5 275 65 33 8.0 4.4 29.8 85.7 7.9 M M  
28000 -40.1 -40.2 275 62 32 8.0 4.4 29.2 84.6 7.5 M M  
27000 -37.7 -35.9 280 60 31 7.9 4.3 28.7 83.6 7.2 M M  
26000 -35.4 -31.7 280 56 29 7.5 4.1 27.7 81.9 6.6 M M  
25000 -33.2 -27.8 280 52 27 7.5 4.1 26.9 80.4 6.0 M M  
24000 -30.9 -23.6 280 48 25 7.4 4.1 26.2 79.1 5.5 M M  
23000 -29.0 -20.2 280 44 23 6.0 3.3 24.8 76.7 4.4 M M  
22000 -27.2 -17.0 280 39 20 6.0 3.3 23.5 74.2 3.3 M M  
21000 -25.4 -13.7 280 35 18 6.7 3.7 22.2 72.0 2.3 M M  
20000 -23.2 -9.8 280 34 17 7.3 4.0 21.3 70.3 1.5 M M  
19500 -22.2 -8.0 280 33 17 7.3 4.0 20.9 69.6 1.2 M M  
19000 -21.1 -6.0 280 32 16 7.4 4.0 20.5 68.8 0.8 M M  
18500 -20.0 -4.0 280 31 16 7.6 4.2 20.1 68.2 0.5 M M  
18000 -18.7 -1.7 280 31 16 8.2 4.5 19.8 67.6 0.3 M M  
17500 -17.5 0.5 280 31 16 8.1 4.4 19.5 67.2 0.0 M M  
17000 -16.3 2.7 280 30 16 8.6 4.7 19.3 66.7 -0.2 1118 5.7  
16500 -15.0 5.0 280 30 16 8.6 4.7 19.1 66.3 -0.4 1064 5.4  
16000 -13.1 8.4 280 30 16 8.5 4.7 18.8 65.8 -0.6 984 5.0  
15500 -11.8 10.8 280 30 16 8.5 4.7 18.6 65.4 -0.8 931 4.7  
15000 -10.5 13.1 280 30 16 8.8 4.8 18.4 65.1 -1.0 878 4.5  
14500 -9.2 15.4 280 30 15 8.8 4.8 18.2 64.8 -1.1 823 4.2  
14000 -7.8 18.0 280 29 15 9.0 4.9 18.1 64.6 -1.3 768 3.9  
13500 -6.5 20.3 280 29 15 9.0 4.9 18.0 64.3 -1.4 713 3.6  
13000 -5.1 22.8 280 28 14 8.7 4.8 17.9 64.2 -1.5 658 3.3  
12500 -3.9 25.0 280 27 14 8.5 4.6 17.6 63.7 -1.7 605 3.1  
12000 -2.6 27.3 280 27 14 8.5 4.7 17.4 63.4 -1.9 553 2.8  
11500 -1.3 29.7 280 28 14 8.5 4.7 17.2 63.0 -2.1 499 2.5  
11000 -0.0 32.0 280 30 15 7.6 4.2 17.1 62.7 -2.3 446 2.3  
10500 1.0 33.8 280 28 14 6.1 3.4 16.6 61.8 -2.8 401 2.0  
10250 1.5 34.7 280 27 14 8.4 4.6 16.3 61.4 -3.0 379 1.9  
10000 2.2 36.0 280 26 14 9.5 5.2 16.3 61.4 -3.0 350 1.8  
9750 2.8 37.0 280 26 14 7.8 4.3 16.2 61.2 -3.2 324 1.6  
9500 3.4 38.1 280 27 14 8.3 4.6 16.1 60.9 -3.3 298 1.5  
9250 4.0 39.2 280 27 14 8.0 4.4 16.0 60.7 -3.4 272 1.4  
9000 4.6 40.3 280 27 14 7.1 3.9 15.8 60.4 -3.6 248 1.3  
8750 5.1 41.2 280 27 14 7.1 3.9 15.6 60.0 -3.8 225 1.1  
8500 5.7 42.3 280 29 15 7.7 4.2 15.4 59.7 -4.0 201 1.0  
8250 6.2 43.2 280 31 16 7.0 3.8 15.2 59.4 -4.2 177 0.9  
8000 6.7 44.1 280 33 17 5.5 3.0 14.9 58.9 -4.5 156 0.8  
7750 7.0 44.6 280 36 18 3.3 1.8 14.5 58.2 -4.9 139 0.7  
7500 7.2 45.0 280 37 19 3.2 1.8 14.0 57.2 -5.5 126 0.6  
7250 7.4 45.3 280 39 20 0.2 0.1 13.5 56.2 -6.0 113 0.6  
7000 7.1 44.8 275 35 18 -3.1 -1.7 12.5 54.6 -7.0 113 0.6  
6750 6.9 44.4 275 31 16 -1.9 -1.0 11.6 52.9 -8.0 112 0.6  
6500 6.7 44.1 275 27 14 -3.4 -1.9 10.7 51.2 -9.0 111 0.6  
6250 6.3 43.3 270 23 12 -6.4 -3.5 9.6 49.2 -10.1 116 0.6  
6000 5.7 42.3 265 19 10 -7.5 -4.1 8.3 46.9 -11.4 126 0.6  
5750 5.2 41.4 255 14 7 -7.2 -3.9 7.0 44.6 -12.8 135 0.7  
5500 4.2 39.6 235 11 6 -20.7 -11.4 5.4 41.7 -14.4 155 0.8  
 
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *  
 
02/25/2024 AT 0800 MST | 02/25/2024 AT 1100 MST  
|  
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.2  
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... -15.4 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -8.4  
|  
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -55.4 -67.7 275 75 39 -2.2 -1.2 | -56.3 -69.3 275 73 37 -3.6 -1.9  
45000 -58.8 -73.8 270 91 47 -2.1 -1.2 | -61.9 -79.4 270 94 48 -3.8 -2.1  
40000 -62.4 -80.3 275 93 48 -2.4 -1.3 | -63.5 -82.3 275 93 48 -0.9 -0.5  
38000 -62.1 -79.8 275 92 47 5.6 3.1 | -62.3 -80.1 275 92 48 6.3 3.5  
36000 -58.7 -73.7 275 86 44 5.6 3.1 | -58.6 -73.5 280 91 47 6.3 3.4  
34000 -55.3 -67.5 275 80 41 6.8 3.8 | -54.7 -66.5 280 88 45 7.5 4.1  
32000 -50.4 -58.7 275 70 36 7.3 4.0 | -49.6 -57.3 280 78 40 7.5 4.1  
30000 -46.0 -50.8 275 60 31 8.0 4.4 | -45.1 -49.2 280 70 36 7.9 4.3  
29000 -43.6 -46.5 275 55 29 7.9 4.4 | -42.7 -44.9 280 65 34 7.9 4.3  
28000 -41.2 -42.2 275 51 26 7.9 4.4 | -40.3 -40.5 280 61 31 7.9 4.3  
27000 -38.9 -38.0 275 46 24 7.9 4.3 | -37.9 -36.2 280 57 29 8.0 4.4  
26000 -36.5 -33.7 280 43 22 7.8 4.3 | -35.5 -31.9 280 54 28 8.1 4.4  
25000 -34.2 -29.6 280 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -33.1 -27.6 280 51 26 8.1 4.4  
24000 -31.9 -25.4 280 36 18 7.8 4.3 | -30.7 -23.3 280 48 25 8.0 4.4  
23000 -29.5 -21.1 285 34 17 7.8 4.3 | -28.3 -18.9 285 46 24 7.9 4.3  
22000 -27.2 -17.0 285 32 16 7.8 4.3 | -25.9 -14.6 285 44 22 7.9 4.3  
21000 -24.8 -12.6 290 30 15 7.9 4.3 | -23.6 -10.5 285 42 21 7.7 4.2  
20000 -22.5 -8.5 290 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -21.3 -6.3 285 41 21 7.5 4.1  
19500 -21.3 -6.3 290 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -20.2 -4.4 290 40 21 7.5 4.1  
19000 -20.1 -4.2 290 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -19.1 -2.4 290 40 21 7.5 4.1  
18500 -18.9 -2.0 295 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -18.0 -0.4 290 40 20 7.4 4.0  
18000 -17.7 0.1 295 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -16.9 1.6 290 40 20 7.1 3.9  
17500 -16.4 2.5 295 32 16 8.3 4.6 | -15.3 4.5 290 39 20 7.1 3.9  
17000 -14.7 5.5 290 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -14.3 6.3 290 40 21 7.1 3.9  
16500 -13.7 7.3 290 33 17 7.2 4.0 | -13.2 8.2 290 41 21 7.1 3.9  
16000 -12.5 9.5 290 34 18 7.9 4.3 | -12.2 10.0 290 42 21 6.5 3.6  
15500 -11.3 11.7 290 35 18 7.9 4.3 | -11.2 11.8 290 42 21 6.6 3.6  
15000 -10.2 13.6 290 36 19 7.2 4.0 | -10.2 13.6 290 42 22 6.5 3.6  
14500 -9.1 15.6 290 37 19 7.2 3.9 | -9.3 15.3 290 42 22 6.5 3.6  
14000 -8.1 17.4 285 37 19 7.2 4.0 | -8.3 17.1 290 42 22 6.5 3.6  
13500 -7.0 19.4 285 37 19 7.2 4.0 | -7.4 18.7 290 42 22 6.5 3.6  
13000 -5.9 21.4 285 38 19 7.1 3.9 | -6.4 20.5 285 42 21 6.6 3.6  
12500 -4.9 23.2 285 37 19 6.9 3.8 | -5.4 22.3 285 40 21 6.7 3.7  
12000 -3.8 25.2 285 36 19 7.0 3.8 | -4.4 24.1 285 39 20 6.8 3.7  
11500 -2.8 27.0 285 35 18 7.1 3.9 | -3.4 25.9 285 38 19 7.0 3.8  
11000 -1.7 28.9 280 34 17 6.5 3.6 | -2.3 27.9 285 37 19 6.3 3.5  
10500 -0.8 30.6 285 33 17 5.1 2.8 | -1.5 29.3 285 34 18 4.9 2.7  
10250 -0.4 31.3 285 33 17 8.9 4.9 | -1.1 30.0 285 33 17 8.7 4.8  
10000 0.4 32.7 285 32 17 9.7 5.3 | -0.3 31.5 280 32 17 9.9 5.4  
9750 1.0 33.8 285 31 16 6.4 3.5 | 0.3 32.5 280 31 16 6.8 3.7  
9500 1.5 34.7 285 30 15 7.4 4.0 | 0.8 33.4 280 30 15 7.7 4.2  
9250 2.0 35.6 285 28 15 6.9 3.8 | 1.4 34.5 280 28 15 7.1 3.9  
9000 2.5 36.5 285 28 14 6.6 3.6 | 1.9 35.4 280 27 14 7.2 3.9  
8750 3.0 37.4 285 28 15 7.1 3.9 | 2.5 36.5 280 26 13 8.2 4.5  
8500 3.6 38.5 280 28 15 7.7 4.2 | 3.1 37.6 280 24 12 8.5 4.7  
8250 4.1 39.4 280 28 14 7.1 3.9 | 3.7 38.7 275 22 11 8.2 4.5  
8000 4.6 40.3 280 28 15 6.1 3.4 | 4.3 39.7 275 20 11 8.1 4.4  
7750 5.0 41.0 280 28 14 5.9 3.2 | 4.9 40.8 275 19 10 8.4 4.6  
7500 5.5 41.9 280 25 13 6.4 3.5 | 5.6 42.1 275 17 9 8.7 4.8  
7250 5.9 42.6 280 23 12 4.8 2.6 | 6.2 43.2 275 15 8 7.8 4.3  
7000 6.2 43.2 280 21 11 2.6 1.4 | 6.7 44.1 275 13 7 6.7 3.7  
6750 6.4 43.5 275 19 10 5.9 3.3 | 7.3 45.1 270 12 6 9.4 5.2  
6500 6.9 44.4 275 14 7 5.8 3.2 | 8.1 46.6 270 9 5 11.0 6.0  
6250 7.1 44.8 265 11 6 0.1 0.1 | 8.8 47.8 265 8 4 10.0 5.5  
6000 7.1 44.8 260 9 5 -0.4 -0.2 | 9.6 49.3 265 7 4 9.8 5.4  
5750 7.0 44.6 250 8 4 -2.7 -1.5 | 10.3 50.5 265 7 4 10.5 5.8  
5500 6.2 43.2 215 6 3 -21.7 -11.9 | 11.3 52.3 260 5 3 16.3 9.0  
 
02/25/2024 AT 1400 MST | 02/25/2024 AT 1700 MST  
|  
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.6  
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -11.6 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -12.8  
|  
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -59.3 -74.7 270 79 41 -1.5 -0.8 | -60.7 -77.3 270 79 41 -0.9 -0.5  
45000 -61.7 -79.1 270 90 47 -1.5 -0.8 | -62.0 -79.6 270 88 45 -0.8 -0.4  
40000 -62.6 -80.7 275 92 47 -0.5 -0.3 | -62.4 -80.3 275 104 54 -0.2 -0.1  
38000 -60.9 -77.6 275 94 48 6.3 3.5 | -60.5 -76.9 275 109 56 6.8 3.7  
36000 -57.1 -70.8 280 96 50 6.3 3.5 | -56.4 -69.5 275 111 57 6.8 3.7  
34000 -53.2 -63.8 280 98 50 7.9 4.4 | -52.3 -62.1 275 111 57 7.2 3.9  
32000 -48.6 -55.5 280 90 46 7.8 4.3 | -48.0 -54.4 280 102 53 7.2 3.9  
30000 -43.3 -45.9 285 82 42 7.8 4.3 | -43.2 -45.8 280 91 47 7.4 4.1  
29000 -41.0 -41.8 285 79 41 7.8 4.3 | -40.9 -41.6 280 85 44 7.4 4.1  
28000 -38.6 -37.5 285 76 39 7.8 4.3 | -38.7 -37.7 280 80 41 7.4 4.1  
27000 -36.3 -33.3 285 73 37 7.8 4.3 | -36.5 -33.7 285 74 38 7.7 4.2  
26000 -34.0 -29.2 285 71 36 7.8 4.3 | -34.1 -29.4 280 70 36 7.9 4.3  
25000 -31.6 -24.9 285 69 35 7.8 4.3 | -31.8 -25.2 280 66 34 7.9 4.3  
24000 -29.3 -20.7 285 67 34 7.9 4.3 | -29.4 -20.9 280 62 32 7.8 4.3  
23000 -26.9 -16.4 285 63 32 8.0 4.4 | -27.1 -16.8 280 58 30 7.7 4.2  
22000 -24.5 -12.1 285 59 30 8.0 4.4 | -24.8 -12.6 280 54 28 7.7 4.2  
21000 -22.1 -7.8 285 55 28 7.5 4.1 | -22.5 -8.5 285 50 26 7.9 4.3  
20000 -19.9 -3.8 285 50 26 7.3 4.0 | -20.1 -4.2 280 46 23 8.0 4.4  
19500 -18.8 -1.8 285 47 24 7.3 4.0 | -18.9 -2.0 280 43 22 8.0 4.4  
19000 -17.7 0.1 285 45 23 7.3 4.0 | -17.7 0.1 280 41 21 8.0 4.4  
18500 -16.6 2.1 285 43 22 7.1 3.9 | -16.5 2.3 280 39 20 7.8 4.3  
18000 -15.6 3.9 285 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -15.4 4.3 285 40 20 7.6 4.1  
17500 -14.5 5.9 290 44 23 7.0 3.8 | -14.2 6.4 285 41 21 7.6 4.2  
17000 -13.6 7.5 290 45 23 6.2 3.4 | -13.2 8.2 285 41 21 6.8 3.7  
16500 -12.6 9.3 290 46 23 6.2 3.4 | -12.1 10.2 285 41 21 6.9 3.8  
16000 -11.7 10.9 285 46 24 5.6 3.1 | -11.1 12.0 280 41 21 6.4 3.5  
15500 -10.6 12.9 285 45 23 5.2 2.8 | -9.7 14.5 285 41 21 6.2 3.4  
15000 -9.7 14.5 285 45 23 6.1 3.3 | -8.8 16.2 285 41 21 6.4 3.5  
14500 -8.8 16.2 285 46 24 6.2 3.4 | -7.9 17.8 280 41 21 6.5 3.5  
14000 -7.9 17.8 285 46 24 5.8 3.2 | -6.9 19.6 280 42 21 6.0 3.3  
13500 -7.1 19.2 285 47 24 5.7 3.1 | -6.1 21.0 280 42 21 5.9 3.2  
13000 -6.3 20.7 280 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -5.2 22.6 280 42 21 6.0 3.3  
12500 -5.2 22.6 280 46 24 7.1 3.9 | -4.3 24.3 275 42 22 6.1 3.4  
12000 -4.2 24.4 280 46 24 7.3 4.0 | -3.4 25.9 275 42 22 6.5 3.6  
11500 -3.1 26.4 280 44 22 7.4 4.1 | -2.4 27.7 275 41 21 6.9 3.8  
11000 -2.0 28.4 280 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -1.4 29.5 275 40 20 6.7 3.7  
10500 -0.9 30.4 275 38 19 6.8 3.7 | -0.5 31.1 270 38 20 5.9 3.2  
10250 -0.4 31.3 275 36 18 9.8 5.4 | 0.0 32.0 270 37 19 9.2 5.1  
10000 0.5 32.9 275 33 17 10.6 5.8 | 0.9 33.6 270 36 18 10.6 5.8  
9750 1.1 34.0 275 31 16 8.1 4.4 | 1.5 34.7 270 34 18 8.2 4.5  
9500 1.8 35.2 275 28 15 8.8 4.9 | 2.1 35.8 270 33 17 9.1 5.0  
9250 2.4 36.3 275 26 13 8.3 4.6 | 2.8 37.0 270 31 16 8.2 4.5  
9000 3.0 37.4 275 24 12 8.6 4.7 | 3.4 38.1 270 30 15 8.2 4.5  
8750 3.7 38.7 275 21 11 9.4 5.2 | 4.0 39.2 270 28 15 9.3 5.1  
8500 4.4 39.9 275 19 10 9.4 5.2 | 4.7 40.5 270 27 14 9.5 5.2  
8250 5.1 41.2 270 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 5.5 41.9 270 25 13 9.5 5.2  
8000 5.8 42.4 270 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 6.2 43.2 270 24 12 9.4 5.2  
7750 6.5 43.7 270 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 6.8 44.2 270 22 11 9.0 4.9  
7500 7.2 45.0 270 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 7.5 45.5 270 20 10 8.6 4.7  
7250 7.9 46.2 270 13 7 9.9 5.5 | 8.1 46.6 275 19 10 9.5 5.2  
7000 8.7 47.7 270 13 7 10.4 5.7 | 8.9 48.0 275 17 9 10.4 5.7  
6750 9.5 49.1 270 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 9.6 49.3 275 16 8 8.8 4.8  
6500 10.2 50.4 270 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 10.2 50.4 275 14 7 8.3 4.6  
6250 11.0 51.8 270 11 6 10.8 5.9 | 10.9 51.6 275 13 7 9.5 5.2  
6000 11.8 53.2 270 11 6 11.1 6.1 | 11.6 52.9 275 11 6 9.9 5.4  
5750 12.6 54.7 270 10 5 10.4 5.7 | 12.3 54.1 280 10 5 9.4 5.2  
5500 13.4 56.1 270 10 5 13.2 7.2 | 12.9 55.2 280 8 4 6.8 3.7  
________________________________________________________________________________  
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT  
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT  
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.  
 
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR  
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON  
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT  
 
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC  
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC  
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)  
 
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE  
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER  
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO  
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD  
NOT BE USED.  
 
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT  
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD  
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS  
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN  
THE SOARING FORECAST.  
 
DEFINITIONS:  
 
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE  
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE  
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER  
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF  
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR  
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.  
 
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY  
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON  
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE  
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS  
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,  
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)  
 
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE  
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,  
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT  
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE  
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.  
 
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE  
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A  
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.  
 
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE  
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND  
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN  
WAVES.  
 
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT  
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE  
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER  
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING  
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158  
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:  
 
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS  
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS  
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS  
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS  
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS  
 
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE  
INVERSIONS.  
 
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE  
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.  
 
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A  
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF  
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED  
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME  
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000  
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH  
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.  
 
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS  
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL  
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.  
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX  
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.  
 
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE  
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.  
 
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT  
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM  
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES  
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET  
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS  
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF  
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER  
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.  
 
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)  
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT  
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST  
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.  
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT  
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS  
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:  
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)  
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE  
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)  
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT  
 
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)  
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN  
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.  
 
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED  
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.  
 
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE  
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT  
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES  
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.  
 
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE  
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH  
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER  
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:  
 
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING  
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT  
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD  
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR  
< 200 FPM POOR  
 
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,  
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:  
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER  
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS  
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
 
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO  
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.  
 
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000  
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.  
 
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH  
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE  
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO  
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC  
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE  
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH  
MOVEMENTS.  
 
042613  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page Main Text Page