228
UXUS97 KPUB 281228
SRGPUB
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO, COLORADO
0619 MDT THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR VILLA GROVE, CO FOR THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 62.3 F/16.9 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 679 FT/MIN (3.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 18715 FT MSL (9743 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 75.0 F/24.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 0945 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 17346 FT MSL (8373 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 08/29....... GOOD
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:30:16 / 19:39:04 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 13 HR 8 MIN 48 SEC (788 MIN 48 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:04:40 MDT... 61.13 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 08/28/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 15153 FT MSL (6181 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 14640 FT MSL (5668 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 17023 FT MSL (8050 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -1.9
K INDEX......................... -3.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.5 -85.9 265 32 16 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
45000 -59.4 -74.9 265 50 26 6.6 3.6 M M M M M
40000 -49.7 -57.5 265 55 28 6.0 3.3 M M M M M
38000 -46.0 -50.8 270 53 27 6.0 3.3 M M M M M
36000 -42.4 -44.3 280 51 26 6.3 3.5 M M M M M
34000 -38.0 -36.4 280 47 24 7.5 4.1 M M M M M
32000 -32.9 -27.2 275 42 22 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -27.9 -18.2 275 38 20 8.3 4.6 36.6 97.9 10.0 M M
29000 -25.4 -13.7 270 36 19 8.3 4.6 36.2 97.1 9.8 M M
28000 -22.9 -9.2 270 34 18 7.6 4.2 35.6 96.2 9.5 M M
27000 -20.6 -5.1 265 32 16 7.8 4.3 34.8 94.7 9.0 M M
26000 -18.2 -0.8 265 30 15 7.8 4.3 34.1 93.4 8.5 M M
25000 -15.8 3.6 260 28 14 7.1 3.9 33.6 92.4 8.1 M M
24000 -14.0 6.8 265 26 14 6.0 3.3 32.1 89.8 7.0 M M
23000 -12.2 10.0 265 25 13 6.0 3.3 30.8 87.5 6.0 M M
22000 -10.4 13.3 265 24 12 5.8 3.2 29.6 85.3 5.0 M M
21000 -8.7 16.3 270 22 11 5.6 3.1 28.1 82.6 3.8 M M
20000 -7.0 19.4 270 20 10 5.7 3.1 26.7 80.1 2.6 M M
19500 -6.2 20.8 270 19 10 6.2 3.4 26.1 79.0 2.0 M M
19000 -5.7 21.7 270 18 9 0.3 0.2 25.0 77.0 1.0 M M
18500 -5.6 21.9 270 16 8 1.5 0.8 23.6 74.4 -0.4 874 4.4
18000 -5.5 22.1 270 15 8 3.7 2.0 22.3 72.1 -1.7 857 4.4
17500 -4.9 23.2 265 14 7 5.3 2.9 21.5 70.7 -2.6 822 4.2
17000 -4.2 24.4 260 13 7 5.5 3.0 20.8 69.5 -3.4 787 4.0
16500 -3.3 26.1 260 13 7 8.1 4.4 20.3 68.6 -4.0 745 3.8
16000 -2.2 28.0 265 12 6 7.9 4.3 20.0 68.0 -4.4 697 3.5
15500 -0.5 31.1 270 11 6 7.5 4.1 19.5 67.2 -4.9 625 3.2
15000 0.6 33.1 275 11 6 7.7 4.2 19.2 66.5 -5.3 577 2.9
14500 1.6 34.9 280 11 6 7.3 4.0 18.8 65.8 -5.8 532 2.7
14000 2.8 37.0 280 10 5 8.2 4.5 18.5 65.3 -6.1 482 2.4
13500 4.0 39.2 280 8 4 7.9 4.3 18.3 64.9 -6.4 432 2.2
13000 5.1 41.2 285 8 4 7.6 4.2 17.9 64.3 -6.8 384 1.9
12500 6.2 43.2 295 9 4 7.6 4.1 17.6 63.7 -7.2 335 1.7
12000 7.3 45.1 300 9 5 7.4 4.1 17.3 63.1 -7.5 287 1.5
11750 7.8 46.0 300 10 5 7.3 4.0 17.1 62.7 -7.8 264 1.3
11500 8.3 46.9 305 11 5 6.7 3.7 16.9 62.4 -8.0 241 1.2
11250 8.8 47.8 305 11 6 6.1 3.3 16.6 61.9 -8.3 221 1.1
11000 9.2 48.6 310 11 6 6.2 3.4 16.3 61.4 -8.7 201 1.0
10750 9.6 49.3 310 11 6 6.5 3.6 16.1 60.9 -9.0 181 0.9
10500 10.0 50.0 310 11 6 5.1 2.8 15.8 60.4 -9.3 161 0.8
10250 10.3 50.5 310 11 6 3.7 2.0 15.4 59.6 -9.8 146 0.7
10000 10.6 51.1 310 11 6 4.1 2.3 14.9 58.9 -10.3 131 0.7
9750 10.8 51.4 305 11 5 3.8 2.1 14.5 58.1 -10.8 116 0.6
9500 10.9 51.6 305 10 5 -3.4 -1.8 13.9 57.0 -11.5 106 0.5
9250 10.2 50.4 295 7 4 -14.6 -8.0 12.4 54.4 -12.9 119 0.6
9000 9.5 49.1 275 4 2 5.1 2.8 11.0 51.8 -14.4 132 0.7
8750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
08/28/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 08/28/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +72.8 LI... +0.8 | CAPE... +75.0 LI... +0.3
CINH... -23.7 K INDEX... -20.9 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -16.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.7 -86.3 265 42 22 2.3 1.3 | -65.3 -85.5 260 43 22 2.0 1.1
45000 -59.8 -75.6 265 61 31 6.3 3.5 | -60.0 -76.0 265 66 34 5.9 3.3
40000 -50.4 -58.7 265 55 28 6.2 3.4 | -50.9 -59.6 270 58 30 6.5 3.6
38000 -46.6 -51.9 275 53 27 6.2 3.4 | -47.0 -52.6 270 53 28 6.5 3.6
36000 -42.9 -45.2 280 51 26 6.6 3.6 | -43.1 -45.6 275 49 25 7.1 3.9
34000 -38.2 -36.8 275 46 24 7.8 4.3 | -38.1 -36.6 275 45 23 8.5 4.6
32000 -33.0 -27.4 270 41 21 8.6 4.7 | -32.4 -26.3 270 42 21 8.5 4.6
30000 -27.9 -18.2 275 39 20 8.5 4.7 | -27.7 -17.9 265 41 21 7.8 4.3
29000 -25.3 -13.5 275 39 20 8.5 4.7 | -25.4 -13.7 265 41 21 7.8 4.3
28000 -22.9 -9.2 275 38 19 7.5 4.1 | -23.0 -9.4 260 40 21 8.0 4.4
27000 -20.6 -5.1 270 35 18 7.6 4.2 | -20.7 -5.3 260 38 20 8.0 4.4
26000 -18.3 -0.9 265 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -18.3 -0.9 260 37 19 8.0 4.4
25000 -16.1 3.0 255 32 16 6.8 3.7 | -15.9 3.4 260 35 18 6.8 3.7
24000 -14.1 6.6 260 31 16 6.2 3.4 | -14.2 6.4 260 33 17 5.7 3.1
23000 -12.2 10.0 260 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -12.4 9.7 260 31 16 5.7 3.1
22000 -10.2 13.6 260 28 14 6.1 3.3 | -10.7 12.7 265 29 15 5.8 3.2
21000 -8.5 16.7 265 23 12 5.8 3.2 | -8.9 16.0 265 25 13 5.8 3.2
20000 -6.8 19.8 265 19 10 5.8 3.2 | -7.1 19.2 265 21 11 5.9 3.2
19500 -5.9 21.4 270 16 8 5.9 3.2 | -6.2 20.8 265 19 10 5.9 3.2
19000 -5.2 22.6 270 14 7 3.3 1.8 | -5.5 22.1 260 16 8 4.1 2.3
18500 -4.7 23.5 270 11 6 3.5 1.9 | -4.9 23.2 260 13 7 4.2 2.3
18000 -4.2 24.4 275 9 5 2.5 1.4 | -4.2 24.4 255 10 5 3.8 2.1
17500 -4.0 24.8 275 8 4 1.9 1.0 | -3.7 25.3 255 9 5 3.7 2.0
17000 -3.8 25.2 270 8 4 2.4 1.3 | -3.2 26.2 260 8 4 4.0 2.2
16500 -3.2 26.2 270 7 4 7.4 4.0 | -2.6 27.3 255 7 4 5.4 2.9
16000 -2.3 27.9 265 6 3 7.2 4.0 | -1.9 28.6 250 7 4 5.6 3.1
15500 -0.8 30.6 270 6 3 7.8 4.3 | -0.6 30.9 245 7 4 8.1 4.4
15000 0.4 32.7 275 6 3 7.8 4.3 | 0.5 32.9 250 7 4 8.2 4.5
14500 1.5 34.7 280 7 3 8.1 4.5 | 1.6 34.9 255 7 4 8.4 4.6
14000 2.7 36.9 280 7 3 8.0 4.4 | 2.8 37.0 260 7 4 9.1 5.0
13500 3.8 38.8 285 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 4.1 39.4 265 6 3 10.3 5.6
13000 5.0 41.0 285 6 3 7.2 4.0 | 5.5 41.9 270 6 3 8.9 4.9
12500 6.1 43.0 290 7 3 8.0 4.4 | 6.9 44.4 270 6 3 10.3 5.6
12000 7.3 45.1 295 7 4 7.5 4.1 | 8.5 47.3 270 5 3 9.9 5.4
11750 7.8 46.0 295 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 9.2 48.6 270 5 3 8.7 4.8
11500 8.3 46.9 295 8 4 6.4 3.5 | 9.8 49.6 275 5 3 9.6 5.3
11250 8.7 47.7 300 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 10.6 51.1 275 5 2 10.0 5.5
11000 9.2 48.6 300 9 5 6.5 3.6 | 11.3 52.3 275 5 2 9.9 5.5
10750 9.6 49.3 300 10 5 6.7 3.7 | 12.0 53.6 275 5 2 9.8 5.4
10500 10.1 50.2 300 10 5 7.1 3.9 | 12.8 55.0 275 5 2 10.4 5.7
10250 10.6 51.1 300 10 5 7.3 4.0 | 13.6 56.5 275 4 2 10.9 6.0
10000 11.0 51.8 300 9 5 7.4 4.0 | 14.4 57.9 275 4 2 11.0 6.0
9750 11.5 52.7 300 9 5 7.1 3.9 | 15.2 59.4 275 4 2 10.1 5.6
9500 12.1 53.8 300 8 4 12.1 6.7 | 16.1 61.0 280 4 2 16.9 9.3
9250 13.3 55.9 300 7 4 21.2 11.6 | 17.9 64.2 280 4 2 30.6 16.8
9000 14.5 58.1 295 6 3 4.9 2.7 | 19.6 67.3 280 4 2 5.6 3.1
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
08/28/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 08/28/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +73.2 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +128.5 LI... -1.4
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +9.3 | CINH... -6.5 K INDEX... +23.4
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 265 42 22 1.6 0.9 | -64.9 -84.8 270 38 19 2.4 1.3
45000 -60.3 -76.5 265 60 31 6.3 3.4 | -59.7 -75.5 270 53 27 5.3 2.9
40000 -50.8 -59.4 265 55 28 6.7 3.7 | -51.2 -60.2 280 54 28 7.6 4.2
38000 -46.7 -52.1 270 52 27 6.7 3.7 | -46.6 -51.9 280 54 28 7.6 4.2
36000 -42.7 -44.9 275 50 25 7.0 3.8 | -42.0 -43.6 280 54 28 7.7 4.2
34000 -38.0 -36.4 270 47 24 7.9 4.3 | -36.7 -34.1 280 47 24 7.9 4.3
32000 -32.7 -26.9 265 44 22 8.5 4.6 | -31.9 -25.4 270 40 21 8.3 4.5
30000 -27.7 -17.9 265 43 22 8.3 4.5 | -27.0 -16.6 265 40 21 8.3 4.5
29000 -25.3 -13.5 265 43 22 8.3 4.6 | -24.5 -12.1 260 41 21 8.3 4.6
28000 -22.9 -9.2 265 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -22.2 -8.0 260 41 21 6.1 3.3
27000 -20.6 -5.1 260 41 21 7.5 4.1 | -20.4 -4.7 260 43 22 6.3 3.5
26000 -18.4 -1.1 260 39 20 7.5 4.1 | -18.5 -1.3 260 44 23 6.4 3.5
25000 -16.2 2.8 255 37 19 6.7 3.7 | -16.6 2.1 260 46 24 6.1 3.3
24000 -14.5 5.9 260 37 19 5.9 3.2 | -15.0 5.0 260 44 23 5.5 3.0
23000 -12.8 9.0 260 36 19 6.0 3.3 | -13.4 7.9 265 42 22 5.6 3.1
22000 -11.1 12.0 260 35 18 5.5 3.0 | -11.8 10.8 270 40 21 5.8 3.2
21000 -9.4 15.1 265 30 15 5.1 2.8 | -10.0 14.0 270 34 17 6.0 3.3
20000 -7.7 18.1 270 25 13 5.3 2.9 | -8.2 17.2 275 27 14 6.0 3.3
19500 -6.9 19.6 275 22 11 5.4 3.0 | -7.3 18.9 275 24 12 6.0 3.3
19000 -6.2 20.8 275 20 10 4.2 2.3 | -6.5 20.3 275 20 10 6.0 3.3
18500 -5.6 21.9 270 17 9 4.6 2.5 | -5.7 21.7 270 17 9 6.1 3.3
18000 -5.0 23.0 265 15 8 5.0 2.7 | -4.9 23.2 270 13 7 6.3 3.5
17500 -4.3 24.3 265 13 7 5.3 2.9 | -4.0 24.8 265 11 6 6.5 3.6
17000 -3.7 25.3 260 11 6 5.6 3.1 | -2.6 27.3 250 8 4 6.9 3.8
16500 -2.7 27.1 255 9 5 8.6 4.7 | -1.5 29.3 245 8 4 7.2 3.9
16000 -1.0 30.2 245 8 4 8.7 4.8 | -0.5 31.1 240 8 4 7.5 4.1
15500 0.4 32.7 240 7 4 9.6 5.3 | 0.8 33.4 235 8 4 9.0 4.9
15000 1.8 35.2 235 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 2.1 35.8 230 8 4 9.0 5.0
14500 3.2 37.8 230 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 3.3 37.9 225 8 4 8.4 4.6
14000 4.7 40.5 230 5 3 9.6 5.3 | 4.7 40.5 210 7 4 9.1 5.0
13500 6.2 43.2 225 5 3 11.6 6.4 | 6.1 43.0 200 7 4 10.3 5.7
13000 7.7 45.9 225 5 2 8.6 4.7 | 7.5 45.5 190 7 4 8.3 4.6
12500 9.1 48.4 220 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 8.7 47.7 185 7 3 9.2 5.0
12000 10.6 51.1 215 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 10.2 50.4 175 6 3 9.4 5.1
11750 11.3 52.3 215 4 2 9.3 5.1 | 10.8 51.4 170 6 3 9.0 4.9
11500 12.0 53.6 210 4 2 9.7 5.3 | 11.5 52.7 165 6 3 9.4 5.1
11250 12.8 55.0 210 4 2 9.9 5.5 | 12.2 54.0 160 6 3 9.6 5.3
11000 13.5 56.3 205 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 12.9 55.2 155 6 3 9.6 5.3
10750 14.2 57.6 205 3 2 9.4 5.1 | 13.6 56.5 150 6 3 9.5 5.2
10500 14.9 58.8 205 3 2 10.1 5.5 | 14.4 57.9 145 6 3 9.9 5.4
10250 15.7 60.3 200 3 2 10.9 6.0 | 15.1 59.2 145 6 3 10.2 5.6
10000 16.6 61.9 195 3 2 11.4 6.3 | 15.9 60.6 140 6 3 10.5 5.8
9750 17.4 63.3 195 3 2 8.8 4.8 | 16.6 61.9 140 6 3 9.0 5.0
9500 18.1 64.6 190 3 1 14.3 7.8 | 17.3 63.1 135 6 3 10.0 5.5
9250 19.7 67.5 185 3 1 31.2 17.1 | 18.2 64.8 135 6 3 16.1 8.8
9000 21.4 70.5 180 3 1 -1.2 -0.6 | 19.2 66.6 135 5 3 4.6 2.5
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). IT IS NOT CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL
ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR VILLA GROVE, COLORADO AT:
NORTH LATITUDE: 38 DEG 16 MIN 03 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 105 DEG 53 MIN 37 SEC
ELEVATION: 7986 FEET (2434 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CIN (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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