595
UXUS97 KPUB 101209
SRGPUB
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO, COLORADO
0607 MDT THURSDAY, JULY 10, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR VILLA GROVE, CO FOR THURSDAY, JULY 10, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 73.2 F/22.9 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1285 FT/MIN (6.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 23320 FT MSL (14327 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1015 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 19033 FT MSL (10039 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 07/11....... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:49:23 / 20:28:44 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 39 MIN 21 SEC (879 MIN 21 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:09:04 MDT... 73.74 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/10/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16902 FT MSL (7909 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 20017 FT MSL (11024 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 21159 FT MSL (12165 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -2.6
K INDEX......................... +21.1
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 275 30 15 0.7 0.4 M M M M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 280 44 23 6.1 3.3 M M M M M
40000 -51.0 -59.8 285 53 27 7.2 3.9 M M M M M
38000 -46.7 -52.1 285 51 26 7.1 3.9 M M M M M
36000 -42.4 -44.3 280 50 26 7.1 3.9 M M M M M
34000 -38.2 -36.8 280 47 24 7.0 3.8 M M M M M
32000 -33.5 -28.3 280 44 22 7.0 3.8 M M M M M
30000 -29.3 -20.7 280 39 20 7.0 3.9 34.4 93.9 5.2 M M
29000 -27.3 -17.1 280 37 19 7.1 3.9 33.4 92.2 4.5 M M
28000 -25.2 -13.4 280 35 18 7.1 3.9 32.5 90.5 3.8 M M
27000 -23.0 -9.4 280 34 17 7.2 3.9 31.5 88.6 2.9 M M
26000 -20.9 -5.6 280 32 17 7.2 4.0 30.6 87.0 2.2 M M
25000 -18.8 -1.8 280 30 16 7.2 4.0 29.8 85.6 1.5 M M
24000 -16.7 1.9 280 29 15 7.2 3.9 28.8 83.8 0.6 M M
23000 -14.6 5.7 275 29 15 7.2 4.0 27.9 82.2 -0.2 1457 7.4
22000 -12.5 9.5 270 28 14 7.5 4.1 27.1 80.8 -1.0 1364 6.9
21000 -10.2 13.6 265 28 14 7.6 4.2 26.3 79.3 -1.7 1267 6.4
20000 -8.0 17.6 265 28 15 7.6 4.2 25.6 78.0 -2.4 1170 5.9
19500 -6.9 19.6 260 28 15 7.7 4.2 25.3 77.5 -2.7 1121 5.7
19000 -5.6 21.9 260 28 14 8.5 4.7 25.0 77.0 -3.0 1070 5.4
18500 -4.4 24.1 260 27 14 8.5 4.6 24.8 76.6 -3.2 1018 5.2
18000 -3.1 26.4 255 25 13 8.7 4.8 24.6 76.3 -3.4 965 4.9
17500 -1.8 28.8 255 24 13 8.8 4.8 24.4 76.0 -3.6 912 4.6
17000 -0.6 30.9 260 23 12 8.8 4.8 24.3 75.7 -3.8 859 4.4
16500 1.4 34.5 260 23 12 8.9 4.9 24.1 75.3 -4.1 778 4.0
16000 2.7 36.9 265 23 12 9.0 4.9 23.9 75.1 -4.3 725 3.7
15500 4.0 39.2 265 23 12 9.2 5.1 23.8 74.9 -4.4 669 3.4
15000 5.4 41.7 270 23 12 9.2 5.0 23.8 74.8 -4.5 613 3.1
14500 6.8 44.2 270 23 12 9.4 5.2 23.7 74.7 -4.6 556 2.8
14000 8.2 46.8 270 23 12 9.0 4.9 23.6 74.5 -4.7 501 2.5
13500 9.7 49.5 275 23 12 11.7 6.4 23.7 74.6 -4.7 441 2.2
13000 11.1 52.0 275 22 11 7.4 4.1 23.6 74.5 -4.8 383 1.9
12500 12.3 54.1 275 21 11 8.6 4.7 23.4 74.0 -5.0 333 1.7
12000 13.6 56.5 275 21 11 8.2 4.5 23.2 73.8 -5.2 277 1.4
11750 14.2 57.6 275 21 11 7.7 4.2 23.1 73.5 -5.3 253 1.3
11500 14.8 58.6 275 21 11 7.3 4.0 22.9 73.3 -5.5 228 1.2
11250 15.3 59.5 275 20 10 6.8 3.7 22.7 72.9 -5.7 206 1.0
11000 15.8 60.4 275 19 10 6.5 3.6 22.5 72.5 -6.0 183 0.9
10750 16.3 61.3 270 18 9 8.6 4.7 22.3 72.1 -6.2 160 0.8
10500 16.9 62.4 270 18 9 4.2 2.3 22.1 71.8 -6.4 136 0.7
10250 16.9 62.4 265 17 9 -1.8 -1.0 21.4 70.5 -7.2 129 0.7
10000 16.7 62.1 260 16 8 -2.8 -1.6 20.5 68.9 -8.1 127 0.6
9750 16.6 61.9 255 15 8 2.4 1.3 19.6 67.3 -9.0 124 0.6
9500 16.6 61.9 245 14 7 -7.6 -4.1 19.0 66.2 -9.6 114 0.6
9250 14.8 58.6 240 10 5 -42.0 -23.0 16.4 61.5 -12.3 163 0.8
9000 12.5 54.5 230 6 3 9.1 5.0 13.4 56.1 -15.3 225 1.1
8750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/10/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 07/10/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +115.2 LI... -0.3 | CAPE... +741.2 LI... -2.4
CINH... -87.6 K INDEX... +25.8 | CINH... -0.3 K INDEX... +31.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 275 30 15 0.4 0.2 | -63.4 -82.1 275 32 16 1.2 0.6
45000 -60.3 -76.5 280 47 24 5.5 3.0 | -59.5 -75.1 280 53 27 5.0 2.8
40000 -51.5 -60.7 280 53 27 7.5 4.1 | -51.6 -60.9 285 57 29 6.9 3.8
38000 -47.0 -52.6 280 54 28 7.5 4.1 | -47.5 -53.5 285 53 27 6.9 3.8
36000 -42.5 -44.5 280 55 28 7.4 4.1 | -43.3 -45.9 285 49 25 6.9 3.8
34000 -38.4 -37.1 280 52 27 6.8 3.7 | -39.3 -38.7 285 44 23 6.7 3.7
32000 -33.8 -28.8 280 48 25 6.9 3.8 | -34.8 -30.6 285 38 19 7.1 3.9
30000 -29.6 -21.3 280 45 23 7.0 3.8 | -30.1 -22.2 285 36 19 7.9 4.4
29000 -27.5 -17.5 275 44 23 7.0 3.8 | -27.7 -17.9 285 35 18 7.9 4.4
28000 -25.5 -13.9 275 42 22 6.1 3.4 | -25.4 -13.7 285 34 18 7.1 3.9
27000 -23.6 -10.5 275 39 20 6.3 3.5 | -23.2 -9.8 280 34 18 7.2 3.9
26000 -21.7 -7.1 275 35 18 6.4 3.5 | -21.1 -6.0 280 34 17 7.2 3.9
25000 -19.9 -3.8 270 32 17 7.3 4.0 | -18.9 -2.0 275 34 17 6.6 3.6
24000 -17.6 0.3 270 30 15 7.9 4.4 | -17.2 1.0 270 33 17 6.0 3.3
23000 -15.2 4.6 265 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -15.4 4.3 265 33 17 6.1 3.3
22000 -12.9 8.8 265 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -13.6 7.5 260 33 17 7.8 4.3
21000 -10.5 13.1 265 28 14 8.3 4.5 | -11.1 12.0 260 32 17 8.9 4.9
20000 -8.1 17.4 265 30 15 8.3 4.5 | -8.6 16.5 260 31 16 9.0 4.9
19500 -6.9 19.6 265 31 16 8.3 4.5 | -7.3 18.9 265 31 16 9.1 5.0
19000 -5.7 21.7 265 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -6.0 21.2 265 29 15 8.8 4.9
18500 -4.5 23.9 265 31 16 8.3 4.5 | -4.8 23.4 265 27 14 8.9 4.9
18000 -3.3 26.1 265 31 16 8.1 4.4 | -3.5 25.7 265 25 13 9.0 5.0
17500 -2.1 28.2 260 30 16 8.0 4.4 | -2.2 28.0 265 22 11 9.1 5.0
17000 -1.0 30.2 260 30 15 8.1 4.4 | -0.9 30.4 265 19 10 9.1 5.0
16500 0.3 32.5 265 29 15 9.0 4.9 | 0.5 32.9 265 18 9 9.5 5.2
16000 1.6 34.9 265 28 14 8.9 4.9 | 2.6 36.7 265 16 8 9.5 5.2
15500 3.6 38.5 265 27 14 9.3 5.1 | 4.0 39.2 265 16 8 9.8 5.4
15000 5.0 41.0 265 26 14 9.1 5.0 | 5.5 41.9 260 15 8 9.9 5.4
14500 6.5 43.7 265 26 13 9.9 5.4 | 6.9 44.4 260 15 8 9.5 5.2
14000 7.9 46.2 265 25 13 9.4 5.2 | 8.4 47.1 260 15 8 9.9 5.5
13500 9.3 48.7 265 25 13 9.2 5.1 | 9.9 49.8 260 15 8 10.0 5.5
13000 10.6 51.1 265 24 12 8.7 4.8 | 11.4 52.5 260 15 7 9.8 5.4
12500 11.9 53.4 265 23 12 8.6 4.7 | 12.9 55.2 260 14 7 10.1 5.5
12000 13.2 55.8 265 21 11 8.6 4.7 | 14.4 57.9 260 14 7 9.8 5.4
11750 13.9 57.0 265 20 10 8.9 4.9 | 15.1 59.2 260 14 7 9.6 5.3
11500 14.5 58.1 265 19 10 7.8 4.3 | 15.8 60.4 260 14 7 9.6 5.3
11250 15.0 59.0 260 18 9 6.7 3.7 | 16.5 61.7 260 14 7 9.5 5.2
11000 15.5 59.9 260 17 9 6.8 3.7 | 17.3 63.1 260 14 7 9.6 5.3
10750 16.0 60.8 260 16 8 6.9 3.8 | 18.0 64.4 260 13 7 10.3 5.7
10500 16.5 61.7 255 15 8 5.1 2.8 | 18.8 65.8 260 13 7 11.0 6.0
10250 16.8 62.2 255 14 7 3.1 1.7 | 19.6 67.3 260 13 7 10.8 6.0
10000 17.0 62.6 245 13 7 3.5 1.9 | 20.4 68.7 260 13 6 11.4 6.3
9750 17.2 63.0 240 12 6 2.4 1.3 | 21.3 70.3 255 12 6 9.5 5.2
9500 17.5 63.5 230 11 5 9.8 5.4 | 22.0 71.6 255 12 6 15.1 8.3
9250 18.8 65.8 225 9 5 25.4 13.9 | 23.8 74.8 255 11 6 32.6 17.9
9000 20.2 68.4 220 8 4 1.1 0.6 | 26.0 78.8 255 10 5 17.6 9.7
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/10/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 07/10/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +980.9 LI... -3.0 | CAPE... +862.0 LI... -2.5
CINH... -41.6 K INDEX... +31.4 | CINH... -23.2 K INDEX... +24.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 280 32 17 1.6 0.9 | -63.2 -81.8 285 32 17 2.0 1.1
45000 -59.7 -75.5 280 51 26 4.7 2.6 | -59.0 -74.2 285 49 25 4.1 2.2
40000 -52.2 -62.0 280 50 26 6.8 3.8 | -52.4 -62.3 285 45 23 6.5 3.6
38000 -48.1 -54.6 280 44 23 6.8 3.8 | -48.4 -55.1 285 39 20 6.6 3.6
36000 -44.0 -47.2 280 39 20 6.9 3.8 | -44.5 -48.1 280 34 17 6.5 3.6
34000 -39.5 -39.1 280 37 19 7.5 4.1 | -39.8 -39.6 285 34 18 8.0 4.4
32000 -34.4 -29.9 275 36 18 7.5 4.1 | -34.4 -29.9 285 36 18 7.9 4.3
30000 -30.1 -22.2 275 34 17 7.3 4.0 | -30.1 -22.2 285 38 19 7.1 3.9
29000 -27.9 -18.2 275 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -28.0 -18.4 285 38 20 7.1 3.9
28000 -25.6 -14.1 275 33 17 8.6 4.7 | -25.8 -14.4 285 39 20 7.7 4.2
27000 -23.1 -9.6 275 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -23.5 -10.3 285 36 18 7.7 4.2
26000 -20.5 -4.9 275 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -21.2 -6.2 285 33 17 7.7 4.3
25000 -18.0 -0.4 275 33 17 7.9 4.3 | -18.9 -2.0 285 30 15 7.6 4.2
24000 -15.9 3.4 275 34 18 7.3 4.0 | -16.7 1.9 285 33 17 7.2 4.0
23000 -13.8 7.2 270 36 19 7.4 4.1 | -14.5 5.9 285 36 19 7.3 4.0
22000 -11.6 11.1 265 38 19 7.0 3.8 | -12.4 9.7 280 40 21 7.3 4.0
21000 -9.8 14.4 270 35 18 6.6 3.6 | -10.2 13.6 285 37 19 7.4 4.1
20000 -7.9 17.8 275 32 17 6.7 3.7 | -8.1 17.4 285 34 18 7.7 4.2
19500 -7.0 19.4 275 31 16 6.7 3.7 | -7.1 19.2 285 33 17 7.9 4.3
19000 -5.9 21.4 280 29 15 9.1 5.0 | -5.9 21.4 285 31 16 9.0 4.9
18500 -4.6 23.7 285 27 14 8.9 4.9 | -4.6 23.7 290 29 15 9.0 4.9
18000 -3.4 25.9 290 25 13 8.8 4.8 | -3.4 25.9 290 27 14 9.5 5.2
17500 -2.1 28.2 290 23 12 8.7 4.8 | -1.9 28.6 290 25 13 9.9 5.4
17000 -0.3 31.5 295 19 10 9.0 5.0 | 0.3 32.5 295 23 12 9.7 5.3
16500 1.1 34.0 290 18 9 9.2 5.1 | 1.7 35.1 295 23 12 9.6 5.2
16000 2.5 36.5 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 3.1 37.6 295 22 11 9.6 5.3
15500 3.9 39.0 290 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 4.6 40.3 295 21 11 10.1 5.5
15000 5.3 41.5 290 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 6.0 42.8 295 21 11 10.4 5.7
14500 6.5 43.7 290 14 7 8.2 4.5 | 7.3 45.1 295 20 10 8.1 4.4
14000 7.8 46.0 285 13 7 8.6 4.7 | 8.8 47.8 295 19 10 9.5 5.2
13500 9.1 48.4 280 12 6 8.9 4.9 | 10.2 50.4 295 19 10 9.5 5.2
13000 10.3 50.5 270 10 5 7.2 3.9 | 11.5 52.7 295 17 9 9.0 5.0
12500 11.4 52.5 260 10 5 7.2 3.9 | 12.9 55.2 290 17 9 8.5 4.7
12000 12.4 54.3 240 9 5 6.4 3.5 | 14.0 57.2 285 14 7 8.5 4.7
11750 12.8 55.0 235 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 14.6 58.3 285 14 7 9.2 5.0
11500 13.2 55.8 230 10 5 6.0 3.3 | 15.3 59.5 285 13 7 8.6 4.7
11250 13.6 56.5 220 10 5 5.7 3.1 | 15.8 60.4 280 12 6 7.6 4.2
11000 14.0 57.2 210 11 6 5.8 3.2 | 16.4 61.5 275 11 6 7.4 4.0
10750 14.4 57.9 205 12 6 5.4 3.0 | 16.9 62.4 270 10 5 8.4 4.6
10500 14.8 58.6 205 12 6 6.8 3.7 | 17.6 63.7 265 9 5 9.1 5.0
10250 15.4 59.7 200 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 18.2 64.8 260 9 4 9.2 5.1
10000 16.2 61.2 200 12 6 11.3 6.2 | 18.9 66.0 260 8 4 9.6 5.3
9750 17.0 62.6 195 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 19.6 67.3 255 8 4 8.9 4.9
9500 17.7 63.9 195 12 6 14.0 7.7 | 20.3 68.5 250 7 4 11.4 6.3
9250 19.3 66.7 195 12 6 32.1 17.6 | 21.4 70.5 245 7 3 20.3 11.1
9000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). IT IS NOT CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL
ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR VILLA GROVE, COLORADO AT:
NORTH LATITUDE: 38 DEG 16 MIN 03 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 105 DEG 53 MIN 37 SEC
ELEVATION: 7986 FEET (2434 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CIN (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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