841  
FGUS71 KALY 102140  
ESFALY  
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-  
111-113-115-VTC003-025-242000-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
439 PM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
   
..FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS
 
 
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FALL AND INTO THE  
EARLY WINTER, SOILS ARE SATURATED AND THE FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR  
NORMAL IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS IN  
NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND  
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, THE FLOOD THREAT IS BELOW NORMAL FLOOD AS A  
RESULT OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK.  
 
A MAP OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL THIS MAP DOES NOT  
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE, SOUTHERN  
VERMONT, BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY  
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE HUDSON,  
MOHAWK AND HOUSATONIC.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FROM JANUARY 10TH TO  
THE 24TH.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE GENERALLY BELOW TO WELL  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK IS CONFINED  
TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK, WHERE DEPTHS OF  
3 TO 14 INCHES WERE OBSERVED CONTAINING LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF A  
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER 4 INCHES AS WELL AS TO PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT, WHERE 2 TO 6.5 INCHES OF  
LIQUID ARE CONTAINED IN 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH. ELSEWHERE  
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, PATCHY SNOW COVER OF NIL TO AN ISOLATED  
INCH IS HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.  
   
..STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMGAGES, 28 DAY  
STREAMFLOW AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK  
RANGE FROM ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, AND  
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF  
NEW YORK.  
   
..RIVER ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE OR ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.  
   
..WATER SUPPLY
 
 
 
NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (NYCDEP) WATER  
SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 97.3 PERCENT OF CAPACITY, WHICH IS 10.7  
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY.  
 
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE  
UPPER HUDSON/SACANDAGA WATERSHED ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. INDIAN LAKE IS LESS THAN ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE GREAT  
SACANDAGA LAKE IS OVER TWELVE FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE BLACK RIVER  
WATERSHED, STILLWATER RESERVOIR IS ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE HISTORICAL  
AVERAGES WHILE SIXTH LAKE AND OLD FORGE ARE BELOW NORMAL BY 2 FEET  
AND HALF A FOOT, RESPECTIVELY.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY (FOR JAN 15 TO 19) OUTLOOK CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LATER IN THE OUTLOOK  
PERIOD, DAYS 8 TO 14 (JAN 17 TO 23) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO  
BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY ALONG WITH A SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR TO BELOW  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY  
RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC  
INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN  
NECESSARY AT  
FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/PRODUCT.PHP?SITE=NWS&PRODUCT=HWO&ISSUEDBY=ALY  
 
OBSERVED AND 3 DAY FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR  
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. THREE TO SEVEN DAY ENSEMBLE  
FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.  
 
THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY,  
JANUARY 24TH.  
 

 
 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY AND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSALBANY AND ON TWITTER @NWSALBANY  
 
BEW  
 
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