530  
FGUS71 KOKX 101423  
ESFOKX  
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-  
081-085-087-103-119-241800-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
923 AM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES  
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO  
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH  
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY,  
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT  
TWO WEEKS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-  
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE  
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER  
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE, STREAM FLOW AND FUTURE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF  
ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.  
 
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM  
JANUARY 15TH THROUGH 19TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JANUARY 17TH THROUGH THE 23RD  
SUGGESTS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER  
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY  
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER  
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.  
 
PRECIPITATION - PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC  
SERVICE AREA DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS ENDING ON JANUARY 9TH WERE  
2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW COVER  
GROUNDS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA, RIVERS AND  
STREAMS ARE RUNNING NORMAL. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY  
VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT  
RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND  
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY  
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE 10 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS  
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 22 PERCENT  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SUMMARY - DURING THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO  
BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW NORMAL  
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD THEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING  
THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER  
INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:  
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OKX  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNEWYORKNY  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT: @NWSNEWYORKNY  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS  
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS, ON JANUARY 24TH, 2019.  
 

 
 
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