894  
FNUS71 KBOX 190910  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WESTOVER AFRB FALL RX...US FISH AND WILDLIFE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
510 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON OCTOBER 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST  
TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WILL BRING AN AREA  
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF NESTOR WILL LINGER SUNDAY EVENING  
THEN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE THE REMNANT LOW LINGERS WELL SOUTH  
OF CAPE COD MONDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............34 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...37.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1700-3200 FT AGL  
EARLY.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 7 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (300-19500 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................3 INCREASING TO 11, THEN INCREASING TO 25 EARLY  
DECREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 14 EARLY, THEN INCREASING TO  
25 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........5 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0  
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............37 37 41 46 50 53 56 58 59 59 58  
DEWPOINT........32 32 34 35 35 36 36 36 37 37 39  
RH..............82 82 76 65 56 52 47 44 44 44 49  
HEAT INDEX (F)..37 37 41 45 49 53 56 58 59 59 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7  
SURFACE WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W  
SURFACE WND SPD.2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2  
SURFACE WND GST.6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 1 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 6  
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............1 1 5 11 22 24 26 27 24 16 13  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 0 3 7 15 17 18 20 16 11 9  
CEILING (KFT)...25 14 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 DECREASING TO 32 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...31.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............7.  
ADI.................2.  
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........1 1 2 4 6 9 8 8 8 10 13 16  
WEATHER COV..... ARS ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............54 49 45 42 40 38 36 34 33 32 32 31  
DEWPOINT........39 39 39 38 38 37 36 34 33 32 32 31  
RH..............57 68 79 86 92 96 100 100 100 100 100 100  
HEAT INDEX (F)..54 49 45 42 40 38 36 34 33 32 32 31  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W N N N N NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
SURFACE WND DIR.W W W W N N N N NE NE NE NE  
SURFACE WND SPD.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
SURFACE WND GST.6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10  
ADI.............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10005 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 78 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............31 INCREASING TO 42.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...31.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 600-2200 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2  
TO 5 MPH AROUND NOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................5 INCREASING TO 9 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 8.0.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........27 49 56 66 77 81  
WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....FROST FROST NONE NONE NONE RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 80 80  
TEMP............31 32 42 51 55 56  
DEWPOINT........31 32 37 39 41 43  
RH..............100 100 82 63 59 62  
HEAT INDEX (F)..31 32 42 51 55 56  
20 FT WIND......N 1 NE 1 E 1 SE 1 S 2 E 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 3 5 7 6  
SURFACE WIND....N 1 NE 1 E 1 SE 1 S 2 E 2  
SURFACE WND GST.2 2 3 5 7 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 200 900 1600 2200 1100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 2 NE 2 SE 2 S 3 S 5 E 3  
LVORI...........10 9 5 3 2 3  
ADI.............1 2 3 7 13 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 2 5 9 3  
CEILING (KFT)...25 20 20 20 15 9.0  
 

 
FORECASTER...EVT  
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL GAWRONSKI  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1917536.0/BOX  
.DELDT 10/19/19  
.EMAIL MICHAEL_GAWRONSKI@FWS.GOV  
 
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