989
FNUS71 KBOX 020011
FWSBOX
SPOT FORECAST FOR CPED WILDFIRE...MAARNG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 EDT ON MAY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. A
PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAINS LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO, BUT AT LEAST THERE SHOULD BE A RISK FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WE DON'T EXPECT WETTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER-INCH. SLIGHT COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERY
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM THE LOW VALUES OBSERVED TODAY.
A LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICT MIXING AND WILL LEAD TO THE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE FIRE BEING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE GROUND.
MIXING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER LOW INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE. TRANSPORT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED
WITH WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS, WITH A MODEST LOFT TO SMOKE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JOINT BASE AREA, BUT SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO FRIDAY WITH TRANSPORT OF SMOKE
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE WESTERN PART OF SANDWICH.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR THE WILDFIRE
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 78 PERCENT LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600 KNOT-FT).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS UP TO 7 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........24 35 36 38 60 83 72 83 85 80
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 80 80 80 80
TEMP............50 49 49 48 48 49 49 50 51 51
RH..............63 68 73 74 77 79 83 86 85 89
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 12
20 FT WIND GUST.14 15 16 16 17 16 17 17 17 22
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 7
EYE LVL WND GST.8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................78 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92 98 98 97 99 93 92 91 85 79 73 67
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RNF FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........ ISO ISO
CWR.............80 80 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 53 54 56 57 57 58 58 58 58 58 58
RH..............91 93 93 92 90 93 90 88 86 86 86 86
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.20 23 23 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
EYE LVL WND GST.12 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 16 17 18 20 21 20 20 18 18 18 18
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 4 6 8 11 10 10 9 7 6 4
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70 72 74 77 79 82 82 81 81 81 80 80
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH SCH PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG RNF RNF RNF RNF FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 55 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 52 53
RH..............88 93 93 96 96 96 96 96 96 98 100 98
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.21 20 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 16
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5
EYE LVL WND GST.13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (22300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........74 68 61 58 57 57 56 55 54 54 53 52
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 54 54 59 61 62 63 64 64 64 62 61
RH..............96 95 93 87 86 81 78 75 75 77 80 81
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 16 18 20 21 22 23 23 22 22
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8
EYE LVL WND GST.9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 15 16 16 17 18 20 21 22 21 22
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 5 13 14 17 19 20 22 22 21 22
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...LOCONTO
REQUESTED BY...JOEL CARLSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2512619.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/01/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOEL.CARLSON@MASS.GOV
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