703  
FXUS61 KBOX 140455  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
1255 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS WITH  
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE  
COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY, WITH  
DECREASING RAINS AND EASING NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, AN  
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MID TO  
LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL  
LEVELS FOR THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SE COASTAL MA THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
* ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS RI AND SE MA  
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
* NE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GUSTY ALONG  
THE COAST  
 
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN IMPACTING PLYMOUTH COUNTY  
SINCE THE MORNING. DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH  
CONVERGENCE AT THE LAND SEA INTERFACE AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL  
JET CONTRIBUTING TO THE ENHANCED RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS  
PERSISTENT ACROSS SE MA TONIGHT WITHIN A WEAKENING BUT NEARLY  
STATIONARY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS SNE, WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES  
ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH  
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH  
COUNTY.  
 
THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR T-STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS RI AND SE  
MA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TONIGHT ACROSS SE NEW ENG. SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED  
CAPE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. MANY OF THE HI-RES CAMS ARE  
SHOWING NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN AND  
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA INTO RI WHICH WOULD ENHANCE  
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF  
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING  
THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT FURTHER INLAND WITH BANDS OF  
LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF AND ENDING OVERNIGHT.  
 
REGARDING WIND FORECAST, EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS, WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS  
NEAR THE COAST SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS  
PERSISTENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY  
WEAKENS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS EASTERN MA LATE MORNING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON  
 
* GUSTY NE WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE COAST  
 
TUESDAY...  
 
THE MORNING LOOKS WET ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION, WITH A RISK OF THUNDER OVER THE  
CAPE/ISLANDS AS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET ACTS ON ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRYING OUT FURTHER INLAND WITH  
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW ENG. EVENTUALLY THE  
RAIN IN EASTERN MA WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW  
DRIFTS OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST  
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM  
55-60 ACROSS MUCH OF SNE WITH LOWER 60S CAPE/ISLANDS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...  
 
AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS  
INTO THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR IN THE COLUMN MOVING IN FORM THE NW  
WITH DECREASING PWATS. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH DIMINISHING WIND  
BECOMING LIGHT, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UPPER TROUGHING  
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PREVIOUS COASTAL  
LOW SLOWLY PULLS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED NW-SE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING  
"BLUSTERY" CONDITIONS THROUGH MAINLY FRIDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS  
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY.  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. MORE FORECAST DETAILS BELOW...  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
BREEZY, COOL, AND MAINLY DRY (FOR MOST). HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF  
A COOLER AIRMASS, RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND NW WINDS WILL BRING CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS ALONG WITH SOME OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE WEDS/THURS. A COOLER, BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS SINKS ACROSS THE  
REGION WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TREND AT TO SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.  
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
INDICATES ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN  
A BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -3 TO -1C. THIS WILL  
LIKELY YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH EVEN  
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE  
INTERIOR. THIS IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE ADDED  
ELEMENT OF WIND, IT MAY FEEL LIKE 40S AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL  
SLOWLY MODERATE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST  
BRINGING GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES.  
 
AN ENHANCED NW-SE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY INTACT ACROSS THE REGION  
BRINGING BREEZY NW WINDS. GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY  
OVER LAND WITH GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS.  
STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A PUSH OF COOLER AIR  
DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.  
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BRINGING  
DOWN GUSTY NW WINDS. ENSEMBLES SHOW GUSTS 25-35 MPH WITH THE HIGHER  
GUSTS MORE LIKELY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS. CAN'T RULE OUT A GUST UP TO  
40 MPH ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. THE WATERS WILL LIKELY BE GALE FORCE  
THURSDAY. WINDS TREND LIGHTER FOR FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES,  
BUT MAY STAY ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND:  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE  
DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE PUSHES  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ADVECT IN HIGHER HEIGHTS, WARMER  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR  
850MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO +12-14C BY SUNDAY. QUITE A DIFFERENCE  
FROM THURSDAY! OVERALL THIS WILL FAVOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE  
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY  
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A RANGE OF UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
06Z TAF UPDATE:  
 
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE  
 
ONE LAST SLUG OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ONSHORE  
THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY PUSHES OFF  
SHORE. CIGS START IFR IN THE EAST, MVFR IN THE WEST, IMPROVING  
TO SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL  
TERMINALS EXCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. GUSTY NE WINDS  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TURNING LIGHT NORTHERLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SCT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESSPICALLY  
NEAR THE COASTS. WITH THE RAIN FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND  
CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES, MAY SEE AREAS OF RADIATION/GROUND FOG  
DEVELOP AND LOW LYING AREAS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS  
 
TOMORROW: HIGH CONFIDENCE  
 
VFR WITH SCT MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. GUSTY N  
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS INLAND, AND 30 KNOTS NEAR THE WATERS.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS.  
 
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH IFR  
CIGS. CIGS BECOME MORE MVFR MID MORNING WITH VFR POSSIBLE BY  
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING  
BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS.  
 
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.  
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO  
35 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY:  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING  
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY  
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE NIGHT. VISIBILITY REDUCED AT TIMES IN  
RAIN AND FOG INTO TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH  
SEAS UP TO 9 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO  
10 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS  
UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL  
ROUGH SEAS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
MINOR SPLASHOVER POSSIBLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ACROSS  
EASTERN MA COAST FROM COMBINATION OF 1-1.5 FT SURGE AND UP TO 15  
FT SEAS OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-  
236.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-  
233>235-237-251.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ232-250-  
254>256.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MENSCH  
NEAR TERM...KJC  
SHORT TERM...KJC  
LONG TERM...MENSCH  
AVIATION...KP  
MARINE...KJC/MENSCH  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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