550
FXUS61 KBOX 142324
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
724 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST,
BUT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER WESTERN MA/CT AND COOLER IN EASTERN
MA/RI THURS-SAT, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED ON FRI.
- STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ONSET OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING INTO SNE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE
HEIGHT RISES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.
THERE ARE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND
THERE IS SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION DELAYED INTO THE EVENING INSTABILITY WILL
BE DIMINISHING. ALSO FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MARGINAL AS WELL. SO
WHILE THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, IF
ROBUST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE TIMING MAINLY FROM 5-10 PM
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA WHERE HREF IS SHOWING SOME UPDRAFT
HELICITY TRACKS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUMMERLIKE WARMTH LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AWAY
FROM THE COAST, BUT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO NE MA WED MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH REST OF EASTERN MA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. 925 MB TEMPS 20-21C SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REACHING LOW-MID 80S, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/W MA WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S
IN NE MA WITH TEMP FORECAST UNCERTAINTY HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR E
AND SE MA WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPS
HERE WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALLING SHARPLY BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MLCAPES 500-
1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS FAVORABLE. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS UP TO 40 KT WHICH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. HI-RES CAMS DO SHOW VARYING AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR THEN
EVENTUALLY BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST DURING WED NIGHT.
CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS AND NADOCAST SHOWING LOW RISK FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AGAIN WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. HREF SEVERE WIND PROBS
ARE A BIT LOWER TOMORROW AND FOCUSED ACROSS CT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER WESTERN MA/CT AND
COOLER IN EASTERN MA/RI THURS-SAT, WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ON FRI.
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THURS AND FRI AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT ARE MET WITH QUASI-
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL HARD-TO-TIME IMPULSES (SOME
CONVECTIVELY-INFLUENCED) MOVING THROUGH THE WSW FLOW. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MA, BUT
POTENTIALLY AS FAR WESTWARD AS CENTRAL MA AND RI.
ENDED UP KEEPING A RATHER GENERIC/BROAD-BRUSH TO POPS, WITH LESSER
CHANCES ON THURS AND MOST OF THE DAY COULD BE DRY. BETTER CHANCES
COULD EXIST ON FRI WITH NWP SHOWING A STRONGER/MORE-COHERENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.
FOR TEMPS, MODIFIED NBM HIGHS FRI AND SAT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS (MID
60S TO LOW 70S) ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST TO RI/CENTRAL MA, BUT
HIGHS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN WESTERN MA/CT
UNDER SW WINDS. HIGHS ARE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON FRI WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS, IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BY
SAT, WE BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED IN COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO MID 60S. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE BUSTS
GIVEN PLACEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY USHERS IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS
AS LOW AS -8C MON). EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF
EARLY/MID MARCH VS MID-APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S, BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE A BIT
COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR. STEADY WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. -TSRA MOST LIKELY WEST OF BOS/BED BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES AT THOSE TERMINALS.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KNOTS POSSIBLE WHEN THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH BDL/ORH.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THEN MVFR CEILINGS SETTLING IN. SEA-
BREEZE LIKELY AT BOS AGAIN BETWEEN 16-17Z. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
-SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH -SHRA AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
THIS AFTERNOON'S SEA-BREEZE/STABLE MARINE AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO A LINE OF SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SEA-BREEZE AGAIN
TOMORROW.
KBDL TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REACH BDL BY 0030-0100Z.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SCA FOR OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MARGINAL
SEAS. S- SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20+ KT AT TIMES, SHIFTING TO E
OVER NE MA WATERS DURING WED WITH SW FLOW PERSISTING OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS WED NIGHT LESS THAN 20 KT,
MOSTLY N-NE OVER NE MA WATERS AND SW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD HIGHS:
TUE 4/14
BOSTON 83 IN 2023
HARTFORD 96 IN 2023
PROVIDENCE 87 IN 2023
WORCESTER 90 IN 2023
WED 4/15
BOSTON 82 IN 1896
HARTFORD 88 IN 1941
PROVIDENCE 82 IN 1938
WORCESTER 85 IN 1941
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...KJC/LOCONTO
AVIATION...DOOLEY/RM
MARINE...KJC
CLIMATE...NOCERA
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