464
FXUS61 KBOX 151145
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
745 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 7-8AM. DRYER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERWARDS.
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF STORM SURGE
COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
7-8AM. DRYER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERWARDS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY 7-8 AM. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, SKIES
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE... UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS RI AND THE EASTERN
COASTAL PLAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE, DOWN TO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
IN AS A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT MAY FALL TO THE LOW 50S WITH MID/UPPER 50S INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH CLEARER SKIES,
LENDING SOME FAVORABILITY TO A POSSIBLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO ONE-FOOT OF
STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EVENING
HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE PEAKING AROUND 12.0 FEET AT BOSTON
HARBOR THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST STORM SURGE FORECAST DATA FROM P-ETSS AND STEVENS
INSTITUTE CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOUT A HALF TO UP TO ONE FOOT OF
STORM SURGE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING'S TIDE CYCLE.
THIS IS A LOW-CEILING COASTAL FLOODING SCENARIO, WITH
SPLASHOVER OR AT WORST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE USUAL
VULNERABLE SHORELINE ROADS (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO EASY
STREET IN NANTUCKET AND MORRISSEY BLVD IN BOSTON). GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VISITORS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHO MAY NOT BE AS
FAMILIAR WITH COASTAL FLOODING, WE OPTED TO CONTINUE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COAST WITH
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...EXPECTING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB AGAIN HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY,
BUT ARE STILL SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GFS (AND
ENSEMBLES) BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES BACK WEDNESDAY DURING
THE DAYTIME WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN (AND ENSEMBLES) HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AROUND THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES IN AND SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING A FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RETURN TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS, IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE FOR SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS.
GENERALLY NW WINDS 8-12 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS,
MAINLY AT BDL AND ORH. POTENTIAL FOR A SEA BREEZE FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SCT
LOWER DECKS THROUGH THE MORNING. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE
SEA BREEZE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SEA BREEZE TO COME IN AFTER
19Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IT STAY JUST
OFFSHORE IF NW FLOW IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
JUNETEENTH: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MONDAY....HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT DROP TO 2-4
FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. LIKEWISE, WIND GUSTS REMAIN
AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND DROP TO NEAR 10 KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOCALIZED PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
MAY SEE SEAS TO 5 FT BEFORE SETTLING TO 2-4 FT OVERALL HEADING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NW, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15
KT WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. NW WINDS TURNING SW WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
JUNETEENTH: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN/MENSCH
MARINE...MCMINN
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