505
FXUS61 KBOX 112325
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
725 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM, JUNE-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TEMPERED BY UNCERTAINTY IN A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN FARTHER EAST OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH.
MUCH LESS WIND SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS, WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH SEABREEZES. THUS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
COULD BE RATHER LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST, AND NOT REALLY
LAST ALL THAT LONG PRIOR TO SUNSET.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND A MODEST MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
COMBINE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH, SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST RISK REMAINS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE, AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MA BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IS JUST DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH/DEPART
OR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLY WARM, JUNE-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY UNCERTAINTY IN A POTENTIAL
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY.
AS ADVERTISED, SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SOUTHWEST FLOW, ADVECTING HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE INDICATIVE OF EARLY TO MID- JUNE RATHER
THAN EARLY TO MID-APRIL.
THAT SAID, THERE ARE POTENTIAL FORECAST CHALLENGES THAT COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLE BUSTS IN TEMPERATURES, PRIMARILY RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS TIMING AND PLACEMENT, WHICH IS NOT
UNCOMMON AT THIS LEAD TIME. CONFIDENCE SHOULD IMPROVE AS
HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RESOLVES THIS FEATURE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE UNCERTAINTY, WITH SPREADS BETWEEN THE
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 DEGREES.
THIS REFLECTS THE SENSITIVITY OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. FOR
NOW, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY WELL IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A FEW DAYS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE EASTERN AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTS BY THE COOLER MARINE AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH ELEVATED
PWATS, EVEN WEAK FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT TIMES. NO WIDESPREAD
OR WASHOUT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
ON MONDAY, OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT, WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MIXING DEPTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE LIMITED RAINFALL, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE FROM 45-60
PERCENT INLAND AND 70+ PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO
COORDINATE WITH STATE PARTNERS ON A POSSIBLE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS MVFR IN -SHRA SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT/CALM AND THEN SHIFT TO THE S-SW SUNDAY AT 7-13 KT. STILL
EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY. STEADY S WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY, THEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. MORE OF STEADY S
WIND DEVELOPS SUNDAY, WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MA FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL GRADUALLY EXPIRE AS ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
CLIMATE
SINCE WE ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT OUR FIRST 80-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK, HERE ARE SOME STATS
REGARDING AVERAGE, EARLIEST, AND LATEST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
NOTE THAT HARTFORD (BRADLEY) ALREADY HIT 80 DEGREES THIS YEAR
BACK ON MARCH 31.
BOSTON:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 21, 1921, LATEST JUNE 16, 1924
PROVIDENCE:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 20, 1945, LATEST JUNE 18, 1924
HARTFORD:
AVERAGE APRIL 28, EARLIEST MARCH 9, 2016, LATEST JUNE 15, 1924
WORCESTER:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 15, 1990, LATEST JUNE 10, 1997
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/DOOLEY
AVIATION...BELK/DOOLEY
MARINE...BELK/DOOLEY
CLIMATE...JWD
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