611
FXUS61 KBOX 242326
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
726 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK FOR SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, LINGERING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE AND FOG
OVERNIGHT.
- SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE, TRANSITIONS TO DRIER WEATHER IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE PERIODS
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STEADY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
LARGE WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD OVER SNE THIS AFTERNOON, BEING
DRIVEN BY A MODEST 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL SE JET OFF THE ATLANTIC.
THIS JET IS RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST,
WITH ESE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THIS JET EXITS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THUS, STEADY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND
A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, TRANSITIONS TO DRIER WEATHER IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MONDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEW PTS IN THE 60S, SO IT
WILL FEEL WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEST
SYNOPTIC AND FRONTAL SCALE FORCING, COUPLED WITH COPIOUS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (DEW PTS IN THE 60S AND PWATS 1.75-2.0 INCHES)
ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY, WILL YIELD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER RAIN/DOWNPOURS AND A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING (OTHER THAN NUISANCE,
MINOR URBAN/STREET) BUT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 0.35 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
GOOD COLUMN DRYING BEHIND THE FROPA 18Z-00Z FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH PWATS CRASHING AND YIELDING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS OF 70-75 AND WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S, IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO WASHOUTS EXPECTED.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY. THUS,
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE RELYING MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND FOCUSING MORE ON
THE TRENDS UNTIL GREATER CLARITY DEVELOPS.
EXPECTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE IN PLACE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A COLD
FRONT FOR THURSDAY, THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE NAEFS AND
NATIONALBLEND THAT THE LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COULD
STILL TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY, WITH
THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
RANGE, ANTICIPATING THIS TIMING PART OF THE FORECAST IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING WEEK.
RAINFALL-WISE, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC WINDOWS
OF TIME WHEN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS GREATEST. WE CAN'T SEEM
TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALIGNED WITH LIFT. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT WEDNESDAY STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF
THOSE PERIODS AS A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES STARTED TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A
LITTLE MORE, MEANING THAT SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FOR THURSDAY, THE COOLER CONDITIONS
MEANS INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH
ORGANIZED LIFT TO FOCUS IT. PERHAPS COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD
TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS, BUT THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR IS
QUESTIONABLE. THESE ISSUES CONTINUE RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN, ANTICIPATING
THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO UNDERGO CHANGES AS THIS
WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LOWER TO WIDESPREAD
IFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH MARGINAL IFR/LIFR AT TIMES IN
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. MARGINAL LLWS
THIS EVENING FROM LOW LEVEL SE JET OF 35-45 KT, ENDS AFTER
00Z-03Z WEST TO EAST AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN ENE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-30 KT AT
TIMES AT COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL 00Z-03Z, THEN SLACKENING
THEREAFTER.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
LIFR/LIFR AT 12Z MONDAY IN DRIZZLE/AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND LOW PROB OF -TSRA. AFTER 15Z LIFR/IFR
BEGIN TO LIFT TO IFR/MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR 18Z-00Z FROM WEST TO
EAST. SSW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FROPA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING NNW LATE. ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR OVER CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS AT 00Z, WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM
SW TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW OVERNIGHT. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MARGINAL LLWS (WS020 15040KT) 00Z-03Z
MONDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MARGINAL LLWS (WS020 14040KT) 00Z-03Z
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
130 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS, WITH EAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20-30 KT AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING 8
PM TO 1 AM FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND FOG LOWERING
VSBY 1 TO 3 MILES THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH OF WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS 5-8 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF
RI/MA.
MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN, AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEN FOLLOWED BY
DRIER/IMPROVING WEATHER 2-5 PM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST (LATER
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS). WIND SHIFT FROM SSW IN THE MORNING, TO WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN NNW OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
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