251
FXUS61 KBOX 051942
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THIS WEEK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND A RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS.
- DRY, SEASONABLE AND A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS, ONE
ON SATURDAY AND THE OTHER TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT BRINGS THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THIS
WEEK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AND A RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR MOST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO REACH
NORTHWEST MA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS RISK IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
WIND GUSTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO INCREASE IN SPEED, ALBEIT A
LITTLE LATER THAN WE WERE ORIGINALLY THINKING. STILL EXPECTING A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET TO BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUST
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WINDS LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR THIS WEEK.
THAT SAID, STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR 0.5-1.0 INCH OF
RAINFALL, WHICH WOULD BE HELPFUL GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. FEELING A BIT MORE CONFIDENT IN DRIER CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY, SEASONABLE AND A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM WED/WED NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LURCH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY ON THURS. COOL, DRY ADVECTION REGIME ON WNW
WINDS THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THURS AND INTO FRI, WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS (FALLING THRU THE 30S), PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPS FALLING TO MORE SEASONABLE EARLY-MAY LEVELS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. OF THE TWO DAYS, FRI LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. BUT ALL IN ALL, NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS, ONE ON SATURDAY AND THE OTHER TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUN MIGHT NOT BE TOO BAD, ON THE
WHOLE THE WEEKEND IS AN UNSETTLED ONE WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ONE COMES IN WITH A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC LOW THAT MOVES ENE FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE AT WETTING
RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SUN. THE SECOND SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN-MAKER THAN THIS FIRST ONE DOES, DUE
TO POTENTIAL PHASING BETWEEN A SOUTHERN- STREAM 500 MB VORT
MAXIMA RIPPLING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WITH NORTHERN
STREAM BROADER TROUGHING NORTH OF THE GT LAKES REGION. THE
TIMING AND DETAILS REGARDING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE STILL HAZY
BUT THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE CENTERED AT ABSOLUTE EARLIEST
LATE SUN AFTERNOON, BUT MORE PROBABLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. LEFT
NBM TEMPS UNCHANGED FOR SUN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SUN, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF WE CAN SHAKE FREE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SAT SYSTEM AS THOSE COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM IF CLOUD
COVER STICKS AROUND DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SUN.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. WIND GUST SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER/T-STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA
THIS EVENING.
LLWS WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE. LASTLY, WE ALSO WILL NEED TO
WATCH SOME MVFR-IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE, LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WEDNESDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE-FORCE GUSTS NEARSHORE THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO REPLACE THE GALE
WARNINGS LATER THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
013>022.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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