208
FXUS61 KBOX 091617
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1217 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- AREA OF FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE RETURNS TODAY & TUE WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY & NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM PARTS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
- TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION. BACK TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
- EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT OVER THE COMING WEEK. MINOR
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AREA OF FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE RETURNS TODAY & TUE WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY & NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AREAS OF FOG COVERED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IT WAS LOCALLY DENSE. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN A LOT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY
AND TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THAT ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN THE 850/925 MB
LAYERS TO BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 925T AROUND +10C TODAY
SHOULD ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S & 30S...BUT LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
BOSTON AS WELL AS WORCESTER AIRPORT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS WARM AIR
ALOFT.
BY TUE...925T NEAR +14C SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S! WE FEEL THAT GIVEN THE OVERALL
SETUP...THE NBM IS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO COOL WITH THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AND TUE. OF COURSE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS GIVEN THE MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS
GIVEN S-SW WINDS. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE
POTENTIAL ON TUE ON PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST...BUT
THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ALL IN ALL...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
ROUND OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION. BACK TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
AFTER A DRY AND SUNNY FEW DAYS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN EARLY WEEK RIDGING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF SAID TROUGH WARM SW FLOW CONTINUES,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH AS WELL SO THE CLOUDS RETURN KEEPING A CHECK ON TEMPS, ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A CAVEAT IS THAT IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MA A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY REDUCE TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
A WEAKER LEADING WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. IT
ISN'T UNTIL THURSDAY THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. FAVORABLE PLACEMENT BENEATH THE RRQ OF A 150KT 300 MB JET
COMBINED WITH A 65KT LLJ WILL WORK ON A MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWATS
NEAR 1.25") TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN FOR ALL BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK END FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
FRIDAY THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES,
IN THE 40S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING SOME
SCATTERED RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SPECIFICS ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT OVER THE COMING WEEK.
MINOR RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS,
COMBINED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT MELTING WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS,
SNOWMELT WILL INCREASINGLY CONTRIBUTE BACK TO THE WATERSHED LEADING
TO RISES, POTENTIALLY INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH ADDITION OF S. RI RIVERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR IN FOG SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY TO CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS BY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG WITH MORE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUE WITH S/SW FLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
QUICKLY TUE MORNING NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND
RI EARLY TONIGHT AS SW WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 35-40KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SWELL SHOULD FINALLY DROP
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE. AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR
VSBYS FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY
1 NM OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
13 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/BW
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page