668
FXUS61 KBOX 142008
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
308 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES WERE CONVERTED TO
GALE WARNINGS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN GUSTY WINDS IMPACTING THE WATERS LATE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL STORM LATE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. WHILE A HIGH IMPACT STORM REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THAT COULD BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TONIGHT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
- MUCH COLDER AND WINDY STARTING THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN A LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL.
-MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER WE WILL SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
- VERY COLD AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY MILD TONIGHT WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEAN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THANKS TO
THE WARM SW FLOW LOWS SHOULD ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO EVEN LOW
40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE LOWS FOR MID
JANUARY ARE IN THE LOW 20S. UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WE'LL
SEE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND CT WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LIFTS OUT BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AND EVEN A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS.
FOLLOWING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO DROP STEADILY LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS IN
THE 30S (HIGH TERRAIN) AND MID 40S EARLY IN THE DAY, DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND LOW 30S RESPECTIVELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS, AS WINDS
REALLY BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER NOON AS COLD ADVECTION LEADS TO BETTER
MIXING WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEEPENING
LOW AS IT EXITS AND AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY THURSDAY
EVENING WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
THIS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. CONSIDERING 925MB
TEMPS DROP FROM +2C THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO -11C FRIDAY MORNING, WE'LL
SEE A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPS ACCOMPANYING THESE WINDS. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20F COLDER THAN THE NIGHT PREVIOUS, IN THE
TEENS. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID WIND CHILL
VALUES, IN THE -5 TO +5F RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS (AS COLD AS -10F
IN THE BERKSHIRES). IT WILL BE A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR, THOUGH,
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS RIGHT BEHIND IT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE.
WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION, THE BULK OF THE REGION IS DRY THU-
FRI. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS THAT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR WESTERN MA/CT IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
EASTERN MA/RI BY LATE EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT
THIS POSSIBILITY AS THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES OF A CONFLUENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS; THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE CONTINUES
TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION. WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH, OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A QUICK RAMP UP OF THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
AND EVEN SOME WEAK CAPE AS THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM, GFS,
AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW 60-80 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ACCOMPANYING THAT FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER WE WILL SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE, WITH THE CANADIAN ON THE EASTERN EDGE. ALL TOLD
THIS PROVIDES AN ERROR RANGE OF NEARLY 500 MILES JUST BETWEEN THESE
TWO SOURCES. THE ENSEMBLES SHOWED SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTIONS IS FOR A STORM TRACK NEAR
TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THUS, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS. KEPT A MENTION OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
WITH SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE, FOCUSING ON A SINGULAR
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT
TO HAVE GREATER CLARITY IN THE OUTCOMES FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 5...VERY COLD AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY ANTICIPATED TO TREND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR DESPITE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. S-SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING, THEN LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. S WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING VFR
BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY ON THE WHOLE BUT A FEW SPOT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, EVEN A LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W LATER IN THE DAY WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY W WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS. A
FEW QUICK HITTING SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE IS LOW.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS 2-5 FEET PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-
WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THU
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO PICK BACK UP AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG WITH
SW WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE W WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GUST THU
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING TO 35 KT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ALSO
INCREASE TO 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/BW
AVIATION...BELK/BW
MARINE...BELK/BW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page