706
FXUS61 KBOX 172318
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
618 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CT AND INTO
MUCH OF EASTERN MA AND RI. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREAS, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS
UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SE MA AND RI. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW STILL FOR NW MA AND FOR BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NW MA THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING AFTER 5PM
THIS EVENING.
- COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST SE OF THE BENCHMARK, BRINGING 2-5
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN SE MA
AND RI.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE
PEAK OF THIS COLD WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NW MA THIS AFTERNOON,
ENDING AFTER 5PM THIS EVENING.
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN MA THIS EVENING AFTER
5PM AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
DRIER AIR. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MASS COULD
REACH 1-2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST SE OF THE BENCHMARK,
BRINGING 2-5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY
IN SE MA AND RI.
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN INTO THE GULF COAST WILL SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE,
PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK WITH THIS LOW, BUT REMAINS SPREAD ON
HOW FAR NW THE QPF FIELD EXTENDS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY TICKED UP
TOTAL QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS, AND A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. HOW THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON TEMPERATURES AND MID-LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR
FREEZING INLAND AND AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW WILL MELT AND COMPRESS AS IT
FALLS. EVEN AREAS INLAND WILL SEE VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW. EVEN
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING, STILL ANTICIPATING
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TEMPS BETWEEN 32-35F AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING
WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO DRAG DOWN
COOLER AIR AND REMAIN AS SNOW RATHER THAN TURNING TO RAIN.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION IS IN SE MA
AND INTO RI, WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING WILL OVERLAP. SNOW TOTALS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING 6 INCHES. WHILE THERE
WILL BE GOOD FORCING OVER NANTUCKET AND BLOCK ISLAND, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT A SLUSHY
INCH REMAINS POSSIBLE. ACROSS CT AND INTO NORTH-EASTERN MA, THE MID-
LEVEL FORCING IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG, BUT LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST ACROSS NW MA, WHERE A LACK OF MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND DRY AIR WILL LIMIT TOTALS. STILL COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES,
BUT IF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK, THESE TOTALS COULD
INCREASE, AND THE ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED NW.
TIMING THIS SYSTEM OUT, A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREFRONTAL WAVE MOVES INTO CT AS EARLY AS 7 AM, BUT MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 10 AM. SNOW SPREADS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
REST OF THE REGION AFTER THE LUNCH HOUR. SNOW WILL INITIALLY START
LIGHT WITH RATES OF UNDER HALF AN INCH PER HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOW
RATES ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH
RATES BETWEEN 1/2 INCH AND 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT. SNOW RATES COULD EXCEED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR THE
CAPE AND FAR SE MA IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING.
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM, SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BUT GIVEN THE WET AND HEAVY NATURE OF
THE SNOW, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS. THE PEAK OF THIS COLD WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA SHOULD COMBINE WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO FUNNEL SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA, WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WHILE NOT QUITE AT THE MINIMUM OF
CLIMATOLOGY, STILL LOOKING QUITE COLD, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AROUND 0F TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 4...MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
EVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
NOT ANTICIPATING QUITE AS MUCH WIND INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, SO SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES STARTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOME TIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TAF UPDATE: 00Z
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LULL IN ACTIVITY. LIGHT TO CALM WIND.
SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z CEILING FALL TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SNOW
ARRIVES. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH VISBY
FALLING TO 3SM-5SM. STEADIER SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM 21Z-00Z, AFTERWARDS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH NEAR
1" PER HOUR FOR TERMINALS SOUTHEAST OF I-95. SNOW ENDS WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z, BECOMING VFR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. SW
WINDS TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY, BRIEFLY NNE 20Z-02Z, THEN TO THE NNW THERE
AFTER 02Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z, LEADING TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. VFR TONIGHT, TRENDING BACK TO MVFR SUNDAY
MIDMORNING AS SNOW ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS 15Z, BUT FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT WITH ARRIVAL AROUND
18Z-20Z. CONDITIONS LOWER AFTER 21Z TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR/LIFR WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH 21Z, IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SNOW RETURNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RESIDUAL SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 3-6 FEET ON THE
EASTERN WATERS IS THE BASIS FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE OUTER WATERS, WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL
STORM PASSES OFF SHORE SUNDAY, BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AND POOR
VISBY CONDITIONS. BRIEF LULL IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS, SEAS FALL
BELOW 5 FEET WITH LIGHT WINDS. INCREASING WIND SPEED/GUSTS WITH SEAS
COMING UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, LIKELY WILL NEED TO
BE HANDLED WITH A RENEWED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ005>007-012>023.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/KP
AVIATION...DOOLEY/FT
MARINE...DOOLEY
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