356
FXUS61 KBOX 101136
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EARLY AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE TODAY, WHILE A
COLD FRONT SPARKS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- BRIEFLY DRY TUESDAY, PERHAPS TURNING UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EARLY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT SPARKS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY TO ALL THE MOTHERS AND MOM
FIGURES! WE ARE KICKING OFF THIS MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT HUMID AND
MILD CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. WHILE IT IS A GLOOMY
START, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL SUPPORT A QUIETER AND MILDER DAY AHEAD. WHILE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS, A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT, DEWPOINTS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S, MAKING IT FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID
COMPARED TO THE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OBSERVED LATE THIS WEEK.
GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW,
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY
DEVELOP. THAT SAID, SUNDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT. CAMS
INDICATE A FRAGMENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHS REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA, WHERE
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, THE
GREATEST FORCING IS DISPLACED SOUTHWARD NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. HERE, A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
WHAT HAS CHANGED? OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHIFTED THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. EARLIER GUIDANCE
TRACKED THE SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MORE RECENT GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA, AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 0.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
MONDAY EVENING, BASED ON THE 00Z HREF, ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A NORWICH TO PROVIDENCE TO BROCKTON
LINE. ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
MORE LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
RATHER THAN A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON TREND 8 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER FEEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BRIEFLY DRY TUESDAY, PERHAPS TURNING UNSETTLED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING BEYOND.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWEST, ADVECTING
LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO A
COOL BUT SUNNY DAY.
THIS IS SHORT-LIVED, AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND IMPACTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LONGER FORECAST RANGE.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MAY KEEP AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID-MAY, MODERATING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
LOWEST CATEGORIES (LIFR-IFR) MAINLY PVD SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
STRATUS AND FOG, WITH MVFR-IFR STRATUS CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD SCT- BKN VFR BETWEEN 13-16Z FROM WEST
TO EAST, THOUGH LINGERING/PATCHY MVFR-IFR DECKS COULD STILL
HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS SHOULD THEN
GENERALLY PREVAIL AROUND 7-10 KT.
COUPLE THINGS WE'RE MONITORING...ONE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP IN E MA IF SW WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN
FORECAST, WHICH COULD HAPPEN AS SOON AS 16Z. THE OTHER IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA AND BRIEF MVFR VISBYS ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 17-23Z MAINLY BDL TO BOS NORTH AND
WEST, WHICH IS CONDITIONAL ON DEVELOPING ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING.
THESE AREN'T CURRENTLY INDICATED IN TAFS, BUT A MENTION COULD
BE ADDED LATER IN AMDS.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINKS UP WITH COASTAL MOISTURE AND BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS AND OFF-AND-ON PERIODS OF -RA TO PVD/UUU AND SOUTHEAST
MA. -RA COULD BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS BED TO ORH
BUT IS VIEWED AS UNLIKELY, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS FOR THESE
AND THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MOST OF THE EVENING. SW/W WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT TO TURN TO NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN RI, THE SOUTH COAST
OF MA, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS. WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY MVFR (BRIEF/TEMPO IFR) THRU 14Z, THEN SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO SCT-BKN VFR LEVELS. THOUGH SW WINDS AROUND 7-10
KT SHOULD PREVAIL, IF WINDS TURN LIGHTER THEN THE RISK FOR A
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY 16Z. ALSO MONITORING RISK
FOR A LATE-DAY (AFTER 20Z) -SHRA BUT THIS IS NOT CERTAIN. COULD
NEED TO INCLUDE ONE/BOTH OF THESE IN TAF AMDS. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
TONIGHT WITH W TO NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MVFR/IFR THRU 14-15Z, THEN SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
POSSIBLE RISK FOR -SHRA AND MVFR VISBY AFTER 18Z THRU 22Z. THEN
CONDITIONS TREND DRY BUT WITH VFR CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, AS WINDS
BECOME NW AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA,
ISOLATED TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MARINE FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SW WINDS 8-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2-4 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY,
WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS BELOW 4 FT. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO NANTUCKET.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...LOCONTO/DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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