828
FXUS61 KBOX 030611
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
211 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST, THOUGH MINOR
REFINEMENTS WERE MADE TO WEEKEND TIMING AND TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
- POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIET AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN, SUPPORTING CONTINUED QUIET
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
TODAY, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AROUND +10C TO +12C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND. A RATHER STRONG SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND
EAST COASTAL AREAS COOLER, WITH HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AMID
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BELOW 50 DEGREES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +13C TO +15C. COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROMOTING COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE DOWNSLOPING AND DEEPER
MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE, WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME MODERATION ALONG THE COAST. NBM
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 70 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE HAS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE. IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER DUE TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE REMAINS MODERATE CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
DECREASES QUICKLY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASE.
SATURDAY TRENDS TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME, THOUGH TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS MAY ALLOW MUCH OF THE DAY
TO REMAIN DRY, WITH A CONTINUED ANOMALOUS WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +17C TO +19C, AND DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, THIS MAY STILL SUPPORT A WARM TO HOT DAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
RESULTING IN A MORE HUMID FEEL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 90+
TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS. NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 25 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
BY SUNDAY, A MORE DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPORTS A
BETTER SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES TREND
NOTABLY COOLER, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY,
THOUGH EXACT VALUES WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING AND CLOUD COVER.
UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK LOW, MAINTAINING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER CHANCES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
BOTH THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS BETWEEN 14-16Z DUE TO LAND-SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. TERMINALS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
(INCLUDING KACK) MAY EXPERIENCE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE
DAY AS MULTIPLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS INFLUENCE THE AREA. WINDS
MAY SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST EARLY, BECOMING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND SEQUENCE OF THESE SHIFTS IS LOWER. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AT 6 TO 12 KT.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH SPEEDS OF 8
TO 10 KT. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 KT BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 21Z, THEN VEER SOUTH AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA LIKELY,
CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALIZED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY
1 TO 3 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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