952
FXUS61 KBOX 200720
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
320 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. OTHERWISE, DRY
AND TURNING EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
REGARDING THE CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND TURNING EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVERHEAD TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 0C, SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND MOSTLY
NW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 MPH. THEY
WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO POP UP ARE EXPECTED MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY,
AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY CENTERED AROUND THE NORTHERN
MA BORDER AND THE SOUTH COAST. EASTERN MA COULD SEE SOME AS WELL,
PRIMARILY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. WITH
REGARDS TO ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDER, CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. MUCAPE
VALUES IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND GENERALLY NORTH OF MA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TOWARDS EASTERN MA TOWARDS 6 PM. HREF THUNDER PROBS ARE
ALSO BELOW 10 PERCENT. SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EMBEDDED THUNDER OR LIGHTNING
DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE THESE RAIN CHANCES,
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY AS DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE EXPECTED AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TONIGHT, IT GETS EVEN COLDER AS WE HAVE MORE OF A RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS IN, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY ALSO MIX WITH WET SNOWFLAKES, BUT CHANCES FOR THAT REMAIN VERY
LOW. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SHIFT MORE N AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE
COLDER AIRMASS REMAINS AFFIXED OVERHEAD, WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND -5C OVERNIGHT. IN THE INTERIOR, LOWS MAY DIP INTO
THE LOW 20S, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASIDE FROM
MORE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
THOSE AREAS, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR TUESDAY, THOUGH WILL STEADILY BE
IMPROVING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS
PROGRESS OFFSHORE. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK
SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES, BUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MAKE A
RETURN AS THE TROUGH FROM EARLY THIS WEEK EXITS. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO AROUND 5C, SUPPORTING MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. NW FLOW MAKES A RETURN HEADING INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THAT WEAK BOUNDARY, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THEN AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES, KEEPING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY. HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN SEASONABLE BARRING ANY
DRASTIC CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK REGARDING THE CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH MAY AFFECT HOW FAR EAST WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKE IT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE
WOULD, IN TURN, AFFECT HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS ALSO IMPACTS WHEN AND WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE RIDGE
PROGRESSING EAST APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY, BUT
DEPENDING ON THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW FAR WEST IT LINGERS, WE
MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT, ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS. W WIND 5-10 KTS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TRENDS.
VFR, THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO 040-060. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL IN FLUX. CANNOT
RULE OUT WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
SUNSET, PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR. WNW TO NW WIND AT 10-15
KTS, GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KTS FOR SOME TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SKIES BECOMING CLEAR, NW WIND BECOMES NNW TO N 5-10 KTS AND
LIGHTER HEADING INTO TUE AM.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT MORE SW TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY W OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND MORE S OVER
THE E/NE WATERS TODAY, FALLING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. TONIGHT, THEY
BECOME N BETWEEN 10-20 KT. WINDS SLACKEN ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY,
FALLING TO BELOW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE S TO SW HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 FT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS OF 4 FT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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