744
FXUS61 KBOX 121202
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
802 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A SEASONABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK. ONLY
WEATHER OF NOTE FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE HAZE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND HAZE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN MIDWEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.,
STRETCHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGS A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WILL RETURN
MID WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING 100 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE MAY INTRODUCE HEAT-RELATED
STATEMENTS FOR THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME AS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S. WHILE NOT AS INTENSE AS THE PREVIOUS
STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER, TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNETITE STILL WILL
PRESENT SIGNIFICANT RISKS FOR THOSE WORKING OR RECREATING OUTSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSSES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND COOL 850 TEMPS TO +10-13C. THESE VALUES
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEABREEZES HAVE ALREADY STARTED AND EXPECTED TO KICK OUT
01-03Z TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES OF BR/FG OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COULD SEE AREAS OF SCA CONDITIONS BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW WINDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE
NEAR COASTAL WATERS OF SE MA INCLUDING BUZZARD'S BAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FT
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...FT
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