078
FXUS61 KBOX 011840
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
140 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- REMAINING UNSETTLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END LATER THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY EXITS THE COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD SEE SKIES
QUICKLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SHARP DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT USHERS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -16C MONDAY
MORNING, WITH THE 510 THICKNESS LINE NEARLY REACHING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN NW MA. WITH A
LITTLE LEFTOVER WIND FROM THE ARCTIC FRONT OVERNIGHT, THE WIND
CHILL INDEX WILL BE BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
APPROACHING -10 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
DESPITE THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX IN THE LOWER
20S. 850MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER,
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS TO HIGH
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHERE
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CT AND MA. NOT EXPECTING THIS WILL LAST LONG AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE. EXPECTING PLAIN RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. STILL THINKING THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY OUR REGION
SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NW TO SE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY.
THINKING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH. KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME, LARGELY BECAUSE IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND THE TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS WE GET
MORE INTO THE RANGE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD ONLY CUT INTO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ICING POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...REMAINING UNSETTLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE ZONAL JET STREAM AND STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEND SEVERAL WEAK WAVES NEAR OR THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS EVEN STAYING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DURING THIS TIME AS RAIN.
STILL THINKING OUR REGION GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A PAIR OF FRONTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MAKING THIS A MORE SPECIFIC TIME WITH A
GREATER RISK FOR RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL HAVE
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR BEHIND THE SNOW WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE -SN MOVES OFFSHORE. NW-LY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW-LY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. RA LIKELY, CHANCE
SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA, CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR
POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RA LIKELY.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SCA'S
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE INNER WATERS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS, SEAS, AND
SPRAY SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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