098
FXUS61 KBOX 072342
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
742 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT/COOL WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
30S & 40S WITH HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- WET WEEKEND AHEAD WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRI. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S & 40S WITH HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OUTSIDE A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT EARLY MAY
WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALBEIT A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. WINDS
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
IMPACT AREAS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CT/RI...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY BRIEF/LIGHT GIVEN DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
TRICKY...BUT STILL THINK ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
IMPRESSIVE PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
ALOFT THAT CROSSES THE REGION TOO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CU DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF SPOT
SHOWERS TOO. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A
GIVEN LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY
STANDARDS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDINESS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WET WEEKEND AHEAD WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EVENT SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RAIN ARRIVING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WISE, SATURDAY APPEARS RAW AND COOL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY BENEFICIAL WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING GREATER THAN A
60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE IS
ALSO A LOWER, BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE, 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOTALS
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THESE PROBS WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE LOWER END OF POSSIBILITIES AS
IT RESOLVES A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
FORTUNATELY, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A WELL-TIMED
LULL IN GLOOMY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY (SUNDAY) AS
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BRIEF DRYING TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TREND
BACK BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO
FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOTS AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA LIKELY.
MONDAY: VFR. SHRA LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY
PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME CHOPPY SEAS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/FT
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page