490
FXUS61 KBOX 272136
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
536 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES SINCE LAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY SUNDAY THEN TRENDING UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL AND DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO USHER
COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT WFO NORTON TODAY IS 48 DEGREES AND THAT WAS OBSERVED
AT 7AM THIS MORNING! THE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
SUPPORT COLD/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY ALBEIT CHILLY MARCH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MILDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WARM, DRY, AND WINDY SUNDAY THEN TRENDING UNSETTLED
AGAIN WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE WINDIER SIDE WITH A
SW LLJ JET NUDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A WIDER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS (20-30 MPH) AND ALSO FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE PATTERN TRENDS UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING A SERIES OF MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW, TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN BY EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THAT TIMEFRAME. EXPECT PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, EVEN WITH A
CHANCE AT HITTING 70 WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE WEEK, TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 00Z.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. NORTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. 10 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND 4-6 FOOT SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY MARCH
STANDARDS THEREAFTER WITH 10-20 KNOT NORTHERLY WITH PREVAILING
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.
DISCUSSION...MENSCH/RM
AVIATION...MENSCH/RM
MARINE...MENSCH/RM
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