023
FXUS61 KBOX 261854
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
254 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED LIMITING IT'S IMPACTS TO
A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND FAVORING DRY WEATHER. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN A COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TUESDAY WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING +1C TO +4C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST MAY BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 50S GIVEN THE N/NNE ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT. THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S AND 30S. THE HIGHER TERRAIN, VALLEYS, AND OTHER RADIATOR SPOTS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE MID 20S WITH EVEN A SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 20S!
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO LATE-WEEK RESULTING IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +10 TO +13C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S ON THURSDAY WHICH IS SEASONABLY WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL
FRIDAY (AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK WAVE), THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY, BUT
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NBM
HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES(60%-80%+) FOR 70F OR
GREATER ACROSS THE VALLEYS, CT, AND I-95 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE A
LARGER PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CAPE/ISLANDS, WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT HITTING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR LATE-OCTOBER. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD
TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WHICH MAY FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. W TO WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 6-12 KTS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 00-04Z. NO RAIN
EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW/NNW
WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS. HIGHEST GUSTS FOR CAPE AND ISLANDS. SCT TO
BKN CLOUD DECKS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT LIKELY TO BE MID-LEVEL
(050-100).
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTS SUBSIDE BY 12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS WHILE CAPE/ISLAND
TERMINALS WILL SEE LINGERING GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS N/NNE AT 7-14 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
00-04Z BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. GUSTS
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ALONG
THE OUTERMOST BORDERS OF THE OUTER WATER ZONES TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-
232-250-251-254-255.
DISCUSSION...MENSCH
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...MENSCH
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