003
FXUS61 KBOX 301132
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
732 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER
WAS EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON LATEST NERFC RIVER
FORECASTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH A SWEEPING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
- A SECONDARY, SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAVE STARTED TO
BUILD IN, BRINGING A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY, MID
TO UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY, AND NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
HIGH PRESSURE, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
WEEKEND'S NOR'EASTER WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH A
SWEEPING COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SOMETIME FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONT WILL PASS, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OUT OF THIS... LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
LIKELY. MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS,
ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC, A RATHER STRONG CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER ONTARIO, SINKING THOSE +4C
TO +6C 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHARPLY
DROPPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SECONDARY, SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEEPENING LOW TO SWEEP ACROSS THE JAMES BAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE LOW, BRINGING A SECONDARY SHOT OF EVEN COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. 850MB TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C BY TUESDAY, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS IN LOW 50S
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT-OVC MVFR/VFR CEILINGS EARLY, BUT SHOULD SCATTER TO SCT-BKN
VFR BASES BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING SW LATE
IN THE DAY; ESE SEABREEZES DEVELOP AT BOS AROUND 16Z AND PVD
AROUND 17-18Z.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, THOUGH PATCHY FOG/MIST COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP WITH
THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WIND 8-12 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST, SETTING UP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
BUILD TOWARDS 5 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMINN
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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