729  
FXUS61 KBOX 210202  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
1002 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW  
ENGLAND, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW  
WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN ALLOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP  
SOMETIME MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING  
EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
10 PM UPDATE...  
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE OCEAN AND  
IMPACTING SE MA THIS EVENING. PWAT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS  
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN MA SO EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS,  
BRIEFLY HEAVY TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE SHIFTING TO  
CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AS LLJ/PWAT AXIS MOVES EAST. AN ISOLD  
T-STORM ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG, THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING  
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR  
TRENDS SHOWING SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  
 
AREAS OF FOG WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, WHERE HIGH  
DEWPOINT AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE  
RELATIVELY COLD OCEAN. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK SHOULD ONLY  
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...  
CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS  
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY SPIN TO THE MID ATLC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL, MOIST S-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. GEFS  
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A 1-2 SD ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE  
PLUME ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE 12Z  
MODEL SUITE ALSO SIGNALING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRES E OF  
THE DELMARVA COAST, WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATE SUN  
NIGHT.  
 
IN THE MEANTIME, WITH WEAK LIFT IN PLACE, THE QPF WILL  
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 0.25 INCHES OR LESS, BUT MAY BE HIGHER  
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.  
 
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES  
LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS ...  
 
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP SOMETIME MON AND CONTINUE INTO MON  
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUE  
 
* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED, BUT A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK  
 
* TEMPS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT A WIDE VARIETY IN READINGS FROM THE  
COAST TO THE INTERIOR MAY EXIST AT TIMES GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW  
 
DETAILS...  
 
WEAKENING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MON INTO EARLY TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOMETIME MONDAY, WHICH WILL  
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUE. DRY WEATHER  
FOLLOWS, BUT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW BRIEF  
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HOWEVER, A BETTER SHOT FOR A  
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MIGHT BE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY ARE QUITE TRICKY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK  
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL, WE MAY SEE  
A WIDE VARIETY IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR  
AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF ONSHORE  
FLOW/SEA BREEZES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW  
ENGLAND WITH LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  
MEANWHILE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BULK  
OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
SUNDAY...  
AREAS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR.  
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...  
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
TERMINALS SHIFT SLOWLY W OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR  
CONDITIONS, LOWEST ALONG THE COAST.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...  
S WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT EARLY, THEN SHOULD  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT ACROSS  
THE OPEN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS, SO  
SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONTINUE. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF FOG,  
BELOW 1NM OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  
 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...  
S-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE  
OPEN WATERS. REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY, THEN  
IMPROVING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF  
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE  
OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING  
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 

 
 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-  
254>256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ251.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT  
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK  
SHORT TERM...EVT  
LONG TERM...FRANK  
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT  
MARINE...FRANK/EVT  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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