088
FXUS61 KBOX 231047
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER TAKES HOLD OF
THE REGION. REFINEMENTS TO MARINE HEADLINES, DOWNGRADING GALE
WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOSEPHINE MOVES EAST AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK
TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. COOL TODAY, WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH CHILLY MORNINGS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO
MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. COOL TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
MODERATING THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH CHILLY MORNINGS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD FROST TO MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS ANTICIPATED, SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE HAS UNDERGONE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE PER
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST AND WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THUS, ANY LINGERING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERNMOST WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS,
PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS FARTHER
INLAND WILL BE TREATED TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH. FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE REALLY ISN'T ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO DISCUSS AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT
STARVED OF MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE THIS FRONT TO DRY
OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, PERHAPS ADDING SOME CLOUD
COVER AT MOST. IN FACT, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES PAINT A RATHER PARCHED
PICTURE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (0.01 INCHES OR GREATER) GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AND
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL BE QUITE COLD, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BE SURE TO
PROTECT THOSE MUMS AND HALLOWEEN PUMPKINS! OPTED TO TREND OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, WHICH TENDS TO RUN TOO WARM DURING
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUPS, ESPECIALLY WITH CLEAR SKIES,
CALM WINDS, AND STRONG 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DAY AND NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. N TO NNE WINDS 10 TO 15
KT, GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT TODAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. FARTHER INLAND,
N WINDS AROUND 10 KT. GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z TONIGHT, WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME
INTERIOR TERMINALS MAY BECOME CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. BY
SATURDAY, LIGHT W TO WNW WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KT ARE EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JOSEPHINE, NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, IS
MOVING EAST OF THE WATERS AND WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AND NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE STORM EXITS EAST,
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX. CURRENT GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL BE CONVERTED TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR LINGERING NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS. EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM
THIS EVENING DUE TO SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. BY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS AT MOST 8 TO 12 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL, LEADING TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231-232-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ280>282.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...DOOLEY
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