831  
FXUS61 KBOX 161127  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
727 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE START OF THE WEEK AS THE MARITIME  
HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY  
COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS MIDWEEK.  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAK THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS UP TO THE LOW 90S  
FOR SOME. MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT THURSDAY,  
WHICH WILL HAVE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TURNING SEASONABLE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS  
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND KEEP THE COOLER  
AIRMASS ALOFT IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AREN'T EXPECTED TO CHANGE  
MUCH FROM YESTERDAY, SO HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE A FEW  
DEGREES. UP TO MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST AREAS, MAINLY THE  
CT VALLEY. THE REST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOWER 70S, ASIDE FROM THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH MAY BE A FEW  
DEGREES COOLER. EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE  
DAY GOES ON AND REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP SPOTS ALONG THE  
EASTERN COASTLINE MORE SO IN THE UPPER 60S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* DRY AND CALM NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING  
 
* COMFORTABLE DAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND KICK IN  
 
* HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY  
 
ANOTHER DRY AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, ASIDE FROM THE  
CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE  
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED CLOUD  
COVER.  
 
FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE SW, SETTING THE  
STAGE FOR A WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATER IN THE  
WEEK. WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH, ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM  
THE SE. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME  
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS  
AS A WAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DRY DAY  
EXPECTED WITH CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
LESS HOT FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
* OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SOMETIME  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. WHICH  
COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
* SEASONABLE AND LOOKING SOMEWHAT DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK, 850MB WARM TO +18C  
TO +20C! MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES  
ARE ELEVATED DUE SOUTHWEST FLOW, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOSE  
EXCEED 70F. WHEN DEWPOINTS GET ABOVE 70F THIS BECOMES "AIR YOU  
CAN WEAR". THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO FUEL STORMS THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
KNOCK DOWN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
WITH HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 80F. SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT  
WARM UP WITH HIGHS INCHING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. AND THERE  
ARE SIGNS THE HEAT RETURNS AND STAYS LONGER WELL INTO THE  
FOLLOWING WEEK AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW MODEST PROBABILITES FOR  
90F.  
 
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, LATE TUESDAY AND FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE ARE  
LOWER RISKS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT MAJORITY OF THE TIME LOOKS  
DRY. LATE THE WEEK ZONAL FLOW BECOMES RIDGED IN THE WEST AND  
TROUGH IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THIS COULD TRIGGER A SEVERE WEATHER RISK.  
WHILE WE ARE LOOKING FIVE DAYS OUT THERE IS ALREADY AN AREA  
HIGHLIGHTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY SPC FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE  
STORMS. QUICK LOOK, THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO, GUIDANCE  
HAS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2,000 J/KG, STEEP LAPSE RATES INCLUDING  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM, MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF ~35  
KNOTS. THE MACHINE-LEARNING AT CSU HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE REGION  
WITH A 15% TO 30% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE  
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.  
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES LOOK MORE DRY, WITH  
POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. BUT GIVEN THIS IS A WEEK  
OUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -  
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
12Z TAF UPDATE:  
 
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT ENE WINDS  
VEERING ESE. TIMING FOR IMPROVEMENTS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT MORE  
LIKELY BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. CAPE AND ISLAND TERMINALS  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE  
COMING BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 21Z.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR BECOMING MVFR, WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
CAPE AND ISLANDS. LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOMING E ALONG THE SOUTH  
COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS. LIGHT SE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE  
REGION.  
 
TUESDAY...  
 
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER  
CELINGS TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AROUND  
1000 FEET.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR TIMING  
 
KBOS AND SURROUNDING AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FOG MIX OUT OVER  
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH VSBYS/CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS.  
SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING, SO  
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 16Z. HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THEREAFTER.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
JUNETEENTH: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -  
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT. THESE CALMER SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. E WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10  
KTS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND SHIFT MORE SE HEADING INTO  
TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. E WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 15 KTS TODAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING  
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY  
APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
JUNETEENTH: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN  
NEAR TERM...HRENCECIN  
SHORT TERM...HRENCECIN  
LONG TERM...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN  
AVIATION...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN/RM  
MARINE...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN  
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