679
FXUS61 KBOX 302250
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
650 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DOMINATED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD BE
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OR MORE DAMP WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
ANOMALOUSLY POTENT LOW PRESSURE HAD FINALLY MOVED SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW
MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. EXPECTING RAINFALL TO ALSO END FROM NW
TO SE, PERHAPS TAKING AS LONG AS 8 PM TO CLEAR THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, TREND MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH PLENTY OF EARLY SUNSHINE. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DOMINATED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 500MB OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN STUBBORNLY
REMAINING OVER CENTRAL CANADA, PUTTING NEW ENGLAND IN THE
EASTERN TROUGHING REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK LOWS
TO SPIN UP AND MOVE THROUGH OR JUST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
LEADING TO THE COOLER AIRMASS AND HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERY WEATHER
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, IF NOT WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE EARLY
WEEK AS THE FIRST CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, WITH NO ONE AREA GUARANTEED TO REMAIN COMPLETELY
DRY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS LOCKED INTO PLACE OVERHEAD AND
ONSHORE FLOW, AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN MA AND UP TO 70 ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT COULD BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM OR MORE DAMP WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION, WITH
INDICATIONS THAT A LOW COULD SPIN UP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE, INTO
THE MID 80S, CLOSE TO 90 IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. A FEW MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE LOW COULD PASS NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK, LEADING
TO MORE SHOWERY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
ALMOST A FULL WEEK OUT, WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO COME
INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR WITH MODERATE RAIN AND NE WINDS 15-25 KT / GUSTS 35-40 KT
EXITS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY, BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
WIDESPREAD VFR BY 04Z SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW AND DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 5-10 KT, OCCURRING SOONEST IN NORTHERN
MA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GENERALLY A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND,
WITH SOUTHERN SEABREEZE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS NORTHERN MA SUN
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW END OF MODERATE SO INCLUDED A
PROB30.
KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
*DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TONIGHT*
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND MODERATE RAIN TO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS COME AROUND TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING INTO THE GALE-
FORCE RANGE, DECREASING FURTHER TONIGHT. STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE THERE ARE GALE WARNINGS. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE STORM WARNINGS TO GALE WARNINGS SOME TIME
THIS EVENING.
HIGH WINDS AND BUILT UP SEAS WILL BRING HIGH SURF TO THE SURF
ZONES TODAY ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES. IF YOU ARE VENTURING
OUT TO THE BEACH, STAY A SAFE DISTANCE FOR JETTIES.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS
OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
012>021-023-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>235-237-
250-251-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-255-
280>283.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...BELK/MCMINN
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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