523
FXUS61 KBOX 081727
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1227 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS
MORNING AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG TOMORROW MORNING. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WIND.
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING. FOG OR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
MAINLY A SOAKING RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING. FOG OR FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. WILL HAVE DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE LOW-30S AND 20S.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO SLICK SURFACES IF
LEFT UNTREATED, AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OF BLACK ICE REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. MOTORIST AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD USE CAUTION
HEADING OUT EITHER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
MIDMORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. AS FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY, FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUPPORTS MILDER A MILDER AIRMASS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING BETWEEN 40F-45F. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT, WILL
HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH WAA CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING, PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT BRING IN WARMER CONDITIONS, 925MB TEMPERATURES
RISING BETWEEN +4C TO +6C FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER,
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS TOUCHING 50F. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT A WIDESPREAD WASHOUT ISN'T IN THE
CARDS, MAINLY A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF NEW PRECIPITATION. PWATS ARE
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, BUT THE BEST FORCING IS DISPLACED FURTHER TO
THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. NO ISSUES HERE WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-40S
AT THE COAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
MAINLY A SOAKING RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL BE EXITED TO THE EAST
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT THAN FRIDAY'S
SYSTEM, CONSISTING OF DEEP, CLOSED-OFF MID-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING DEVELOPING OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST AROUND CAPE/ISLANDS OR JUST OFFSHORE. AN ENHANCED SW JET
WILL HELP TRANSPORT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
AROUND 230-280 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL COMPARED TO
THE LATE FRIDAY SYSTEM. SMALLER DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TIMING ARE STILL LESS CERTAIN DUE TO SUBTLE
DIFFERENCE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE
AFTERNOON, LATE MORNING AT EARLIEST FOR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN
CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TOTAL RAIN, ENSEMBLES SHOW A LIKELY RANGE OF 0.50-1"
WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST,
SOUTHEAST MA, AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THE AXIS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS SHIFTS A
LITTLE FROM RUN TO RUN OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK.
UPPER PERCENTILES OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS UP
TO 1.5" FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WILL BE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE MORNING COLD FRONT AND WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP COLD ENOUGH, THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON TEMPERATURES AND WE'LL HAVE
TO WAIT TO GET IN HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. OVERALL, IF IT ENDS UP COLD
ENOUGH THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTH WORCESTER HILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE, MODERATE WESTERLY
LLJ, AND SOME CAA WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SET-UP ISN'T FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS, BUT IS SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT GUSTS 25-40 MPH WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS, POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING 1/2SM TO 1SM. SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 5
KNOTS.
FRIDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE (TIMING OF LOWERING CEILINGS).
VFR, TRENDING TO MVFR BY MIDAFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
SHOWERY RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND AND AFTER 00Z.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITAITON.
MVFR, POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED IFR. AREAS OF -SHRA MOVE IN FROM
W-E BETWEEN 22Z-00Z WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 03-06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING TONIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO 15Z FRIDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO
30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVES TO
THE WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WIND & GUSTS REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY, RESIDUAL SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
ARE THE BASIS FOR A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LULL OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, WIND INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION. GUSTING
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS INCREASING 4 TO 6 FEET BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
PATCHY FOG.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 12 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY/MENSCH
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