225
FXUS61 KBOX 071144
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
644 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT GLACE OF
ICE, THOUGH LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.1". PLAN ON SLICK TRAVEL THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN CREATES HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON, QUIETER CONDITIONS TONIGHT TO THURSDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST WINDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING RAIN CREATES HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IMPROVEMENTS BY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, QUIETER CONDITIONS TONIGHT TO
THURSDAY.
ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND,
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT, AND MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS, INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD AND
EAST OF THE LOW, A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT BROUGHT AN INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ARRIVING A
FEW HOURS LATER. THIS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, TEMPORARILY ENDING THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT. INTERIOR AND HIGH-ELECVATION LOCATIONS REMAIN MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE, WHERE COLD AIR IS STILL ENTRENCHED NEAR THE SURFACE AND
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AS THE PRIMARY LOW EXITS.
THIS WILL INDUCE A RAPID SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT,
MARGINALLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
INTO THE LOWER 30S, BRINGING A RENEWED THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
WRAPS UP AND EXITS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
TAPPERS OFF BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON REMAINING CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING ANY UNTREATED WET SURFACES TO
REFREEZE. BY THURSDAY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD EAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE WATERS SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS MILDER A MILDER
AIRMASS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
LATER IN THE WEEK FAVORING A PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH INTO FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR
50 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN TRENDS ACTIVE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH A
WEAK WAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE, THIS WILL SUPPORT A
FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ADVECT IN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, AROUND 250-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS CERTAINLY IN THE
UPPER PERCENTILES OF CLIMO. ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE LIKELY RANGE OF
0.50 TO 1" OF RAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS
THAT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR TRENDS IN FUTURE GUIDANCE. FOR TIMING, THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND "WAVE" WILL BE MORE ROBUST/SYNOPTICALLY SUPPORTED BRINGING IN
A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME COLD ADVECTION POST COLD-FRONT. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE PROBABILITIES (50-60%) FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH FOR THE EAST BERKSHIRES AND 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR THE
WORCESTER HILLS AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH -GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE (TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS)
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR-VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST. AREAS OF FZRA
OR FZDZ IN THE INTERIOR MAY EXPAND TOWARD THE E-NE MA COAST
DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO N-NW DURING THE MORNING
INCREASING MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. WNW WIND 5-15 KT.
THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DRY. VFR. LIGHT NW WIND BECOMES W, LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. WIND MAY
BECOME CALM AFTER 21Z WITH HIGH-PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
KBOS TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR CIGS WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE INTO WED MORNING. RAIN
DEVELOPS AFTER 02Z BUT COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO N-NW WED MORNING AND
THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME -FZRA/-FZDZ AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD.
KBDL TERMINAL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIFR. AREAS OF
FZRA DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TRANSITIONING TO -RA/-DZ LATE TONIGHT AS
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA, SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
KEY POINT:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY & WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE W, GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TAPPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS INCREASING 4' TO 8', EASTERN WATERS 3' TO 6'.
AN AREA OF HIGH-PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING, SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>017-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MENSCH
MARINE...DOOLEY/MENSCH
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