648
FXUS61 KBOX 240722
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
322 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LATEST
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
- RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ENHANCED BY THE RECENT RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BURN OFF AS WINDS PICK BACK UP AND THE SUN RISES. WITH THE
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN CONTINUING OFFSHORE AND MORE WESTERLY
WINDS PICKING UP, EXPECT A SUNNIER, DRIER DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S. THIS DRIER
PATTERN WILL LAST INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US STRETCHED UP INTO THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MONITORING FOR SEVERE
RISK FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT TO ITS EAST
AND WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF
THESE SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDER OUT IN WESTERN MA IS A POSSIBILITY,
BUT THE RISK GOES DOWN CONSIDERABLY EAST OF WORCESTER. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IS LOW IN THE MORNING, THOUGH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW'S COLD FRONT BEHIND
THE MORNING'S WARM FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY STILL ON
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS, BUT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR BEING PRESENT. THE FORCING FROM THE ARRIVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT WHETHER THESE MAY TURN SEVERE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF A CONSENSUS ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE OTHER TWO
INGREDIENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS
TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AROUND. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE CHANCE REMAINS THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTH COAST HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. ASIDE FROM THIS, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN HEADING
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
WARMING TREND ALSO KICKS OFF FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON JUST HOW WARM IT MAY
GET ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z UPDATE
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AREAS THAT SAW MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY CAN EXPECT A
HIGHER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IF IT HASN'T ALREADY.
IN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG, IFR POSSIBLE. RAIN LINGERING OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS EXIT AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY 12Z AT THE LATEST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THESE HAVING EXITED
THE REGION BY 09Z. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH TODAY, SHIFTING
MORE W TONIGHT AND GOING CALM FOR SOME. NW WINDS SHIFT SW/S FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, VARYING IN
DIRECTION WHILE KEEPING A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AND GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH TOMORROW (OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NANTUCKET
SOUND) WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
COULD SEE SEAS TO 5 FT TONIGHT, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...HRENCECIN
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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