722
FXUS61 KBOX 282326
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
726 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AFTER A COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY MILD DAYS AROUND MIDWEEK,
TEMPERATURES THEN TUMBLE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ON NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK. WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURS OR FRI BUT UNCERTAIN ON THE
TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 70S WITH ENOUGH
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD
FRONT LURCHES SLOWLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S/LOWER 40S ON NE WINDS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY WINTRY PRECIP
POTENTIAL EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING INTO
NW MA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ITS PASSAGE, OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT
BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENG TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER AT
TIMES AS THE POLAR JET WILL SET UP ACROSS NEW ENG, BUT OVERALL
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY. WITH RETURN SW FLOW
DEVELOPING SUNDAY, A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPS
REACHING 45-50F. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS SO IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES. FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS REACH 8-10C MON WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLY MILD AND TURNING BREEZY FOR MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 70S WITH ENOUGH BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD FRONT LURCHES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GT LAKES
REGION WILL DRAW AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES TUE AND WED ON SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT AT 925 MB.
THIS SUPPORTS A SPELL OF MILD TEMPERATURES CENTERED AROUND MIDWEEK;
BIGGEST POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND, WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR QUESTIONS ON HOW
MUCH DIURNAL INSOLATION WE CAN REALIZE. EVEN STILL, WITH 925 MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +14 TO +16C AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +10 TO
+12C RANGE, EVEN SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD OFFER HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S, WITH A CONDITIONAL SHOT AT 70S IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY
PERSISTENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS. TUE NIGHT ALSO LOOKS QUITE MILD
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S, SO COULD BE A NIGHT TO OPEN UP
THE WINDOWS. SW WINDS WOULD SEE TO FAVOR MILDER TEMPERATURES MAKING
IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITHOUT A RISK FOR SEABREEZES, AND
THAT'S ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH
PRETTY STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT SUPPORTING SW WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-
35 MPH RANGE.
THERE COULD BE SOME HIT-OR-MISS LIGHT RAINS TUE AS THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT STARTS TO COME IN, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ALONG
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO WED EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS WED TOO GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. FRONT THEN MOVES
MORE SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THURS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW SLOWLY THIS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS RECENT ECMWF GUIDANCE
SHOWING A POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE SLOWING FRONTAL
ZONE INTO EARLY THURS, WHICH WOULD MEAN LINGERING RAIN INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROUGHLY THIRD OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MUCH COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S ON NE WINDS. RAIN AND POSSIBLY WINTRY PRECIP
POTENTIAL EITHER THURS OR FRI BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT FROM MIDWEEK SHOULD HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
THURS TO ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER NORTHEAST ME. 925
MB TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND +14-16C FROM WED AFTERNOON AND THEN TUMBLE
DOWN TO A CHILLY 0 TO -2C BY THURS, SOME 24 HOURS LATER ON
INCREASING NE WINDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BOTH THURS AND
FRI WILL ONLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AT BEST. SO WE'LL
GO FROM OPENING UP YOUR WINDOWS TO CLOSING THEM AND POSSIBLY NEEDING
TO TURN THE HEAT ON LATE IN THE WEEK; TYPICAL LATE-MARCH WEATHER IN
NEW ENGLAND.
THE BIGGER ISSUE HERE THOUGH IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. GFS/GEFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/EARLIEST ARRIVAL BEING CLOSER
TO THURS, WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS IS CLOSER TO FRIDAY. THAT'LL BE
IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP AT
ONSET IN AT LEAST INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PENDING SURFACE
TEMPS. SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AGAIN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
MONTH OF MARCH, BUT AT THIS DAY-6/DAY-7 TIMEFRAME IT'S UNCLEAR IF IT
ENDS UP BEING THURS OR FRI.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SW BY DAYBREAK THEN GUSTS
TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. S-SW WIND 5-15 KT SUN
NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
THURSDAY: MVFR. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NW WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING SW SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 14 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP
TO 13 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
RAIN.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
DISCUSSION...KJC/LOCONTO
AVIATION...KJC/FT
MARINE...KJC
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