466
FXUS61 KBOX 241059
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
659 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST ON SUNDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES START TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE. UNSETTLED
WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS AROUND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS STUCK IN A RATHER BLOCKY MIDLEVEL PATTERN,
PLACED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SPIRALING AROUND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINE AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS AROUND
0.2 TO 0.4"). THE CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTHEAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS, WHICH WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND SEABREEZES PREVAILING AS
WELL.
EARLY THIS MORNING A PRETTY EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ROUGHLY BISECTS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO LESS
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS EAST (30S) AND COMPARATIVELY MILDER WEST
UNDER THE CLOUD DECK (40S-LOW 50S). RADAR'S SHOWING SOME ECHOES
HERE BUT THEY'RE NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 20-25 DEGREES. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHUNT
ITSELF SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL SUN
ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY. LOCAL SEABREEZES DEVELOP FOR THE
COASTLINES, AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY BUT WINDS
TODAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
COULD STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE LOW 50S BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTS, WITH FULL SUN AND 50S/LOW 60S INLAND.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COMING
OUT OF THE GT LAKES LINKS UP WITH SUBTLE TROUGH ENERGY AROUND
THE NE CANADIAN UPPER LOW. SOME OF THE MORE COARSER-RESOLUTION
MODELS TRY TO SHIFT SOME SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MA AND
CT SATURDAY, BUT THIS SEEMS EXAGGERATED; IN FACT MOST OF THE
MODEL- DERIVED QPF IS MORE RESTRICTED TO SW CT/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY SAT DESPITE THERE BEING QUITE A BIT OF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY BEING MODELED. AGAIN A REFLECTION OF WHAT SHOULD
BE QUITE A BIT OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS VS ANY PRECIP. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS COULD MEAN SAT ENDS UP BEING
QUITE A BIT COOL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THOUGH IT'S NOT WELL
AGREED UPON, THERE'S SOME INDICATION THAT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
INTO SOUTHERN RI AND REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST WITH
SOME ENHANCED NE WINDS; THAT MIGHT BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
SHOWERS BUT THESE WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO
MIDWEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES START TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS AROUND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN REASSERTS ITSELF BACK INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER RESUMES
BUT OUR LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MODIFY, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO LATE- APRIL NORMALS, WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AROUND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD BRING WITH IT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, BUT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE WHEN THOSE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE FOCUSED AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
PRECEDING IT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT, WITH
SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING AROUND 14-16Z EASTERN MA COAST AND SOUTH
COAST 15-17Z. WINDS THEN TURN E/ENE AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH AN INCREASING CANOPY OF VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WINDS RETURN TO SE
SEABREEZES AROUND 14-15Z. WINDS THEN TURN ENE EARLY TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SCT- BKN050 CLOUDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR, EARLY-DAY MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS TREND TO SKC BY MID-MORNING WITH N TO NE WINDS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND, EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND 5-10 KT
AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. POSSIBLE FRINGE SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON SOUTHERN WATERS WITH ENHANCED NE WINDS AND
SEAS NEARING 5 FT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BW
MARINE...LOCONTO
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