416
FXUS61 KBOX 042345
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- FALL-LIKE FEEL FOR SUNDAY, THEN MORE SEASONABLE FOR LABOR
DAY. A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD CUTOFF LOW TRACKING INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEAR-TERM. NW FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING MORE N TO NE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE. HIGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
AID IN MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP, AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVEN
WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 1". HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE
TO THIS MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOLING A BIT, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MA; 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALL
TO AROUND 12-14C OVER EASTERN MA WITH THE INTERIOR CLOSER TO 16-18C.
850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW 10C SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS MORE
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT DESCENDS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FALL-LIKE FEEL FOR SUNDAY, THEN MORE SEASONABLE FOR
LABOR DAY. A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE 500MB FORECAST MAP SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF AN OMEGA RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OMEGA RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT, WITH SEMI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COAST BY
TUESDAY AND THEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FOR LATE WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES, LIKELY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, WITH ITS ORIGINS IN NORTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO A STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER SUNDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MID-LEVEL
LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY AROUND +8C TO
+10C, WHICH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. THUS, SUNDAY WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE AUTUMN, WITH A
BLEND OF SUN AND CLOUDS, NORTHERLY WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
50S. WHILE WINDS WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CRISP DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH. DID OPT FOR A BLEND OF COLDER GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH URBAN CENTERS LIKE
BOSTON REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
GOOD NEWS IF YOU AREN'T READY FOR PUMPKIN SPICE WEATHER, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FROM WAA ALOFT.
925MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB +14C TO +18C, SUPPORTING NEAR-SEASONABLE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR LABOR DAY, THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY REMAINS
TOLERABLE AS WELL, WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60F. LABOR DAY ITSELF LOOKS QUIET AND DRY, THOUGH THERE WILL
BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, LONG-PERIOD SWELL, AND OFFSHORE SEAS OF 4-
7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO LABOR
DAY FOR EAST-FACING OCEAN BEACHES. WITH OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED, THOSE HEADING TO THE BEACH SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT OCEAN
CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE HAZARDOUS. BE SURE TO CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH
STAFF OR LIFEGUARDS REGARDING OCEAN CONDITIONS BEFORE ENTERING THE
WATER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
UPDATE: 00Z TAF
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS MAY APPROACH EASTERN MA BEFORE
DAYBREAK, INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FOR EASTERN MA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE MAY BE TWO CLOUD BASES TOMORROW,
ONE BEING MVFR TO LOW-END VFR (020-040)VFR, THEN A SECONDARY
BASE BETWEEN 050-080. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THREAT 19Z-23Z. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LOWER-END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CEILINGS, WHETHER THE DECK OF CLOUDS ARE SCT OR BKN/OVC.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SEABREEZES KICK OUT CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WINDS
RETURN TO MORE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MORE N AND NE INTO
SATURDAY, SUSTAINED TO 10-15 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT, INCREASING
SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED HEADING INTO SUNDAY. RIP CURRENT RISK STARTS TO INCREASE
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY INCREASING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
LABOR DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...BW/DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY/HRENCECIN
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