958
FXUS61 KBOX 191704
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
104 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AT THIS
TIME.
- BREEZY AND UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT AT THIS
TIME.
FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL WAVE DIVES SE FROM ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND RAINY CONDITIONS. BREEZY WEATHER
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A ROBUST SOUTH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 45-55 KNOTS BY THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. EXPECT THICKENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MORE CONFINED TO CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS WHICH TYPICALLY GUSTS PRETTY WELL WITH SW
FLOW (TEMPERED BY THE COOLER WATER TEMPS). SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS AND PERHAPS
AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 50S IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEYS.
COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH COAST,
CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO PERSISTENT SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS.
INCREASING CHANCE FOR POPS FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A BROKEN
BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVES FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
DECREASING SW WIND GUSTS AS THE COLUMN STABILIZES. AS IT DOES SO, IT
WILL ACT ON A MODEST PWAT PLUME INCREASING TO AROUND 0.75-0.8
INCHES, WHICH IS REALLY NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. KEPT POPS AT HIGH
LIKELY TO LOWER CATEGORICAL, ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP-MAKER, WITH ENSEMBLE QPF PROBS STILL INDICATING
LOW (< 30%) PROBS OF RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.50". THE NBM HAS
ABOUT A 50-50 CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN.
GIVEN STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND ONLY MODEST PWATS TO WORK WITH, THE
RAINFALL PROBS SEEM REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SLOWING
FRONTAL ZONE THOUGH, AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 500 MB HEIGHT CONTOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY AND UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER, BUT STILL
NEAR NORMAL, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A PESKY FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS IT GETS HUNG UP BY A LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FINALLY DRAGGING THIS FRONT AWAY FROM
OUR REGION.
WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE'RE
THINKING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. IT'S
THEN A RACE BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION LEAVING AND COLDER AIR TRYING
TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF ROUTE 2 IN MA, BUT COULD ALSO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS. GIVEN THE BRIEF DURATION OF ANY
SNOW, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY THEN TAKES OVER
OUR WEATHER FOR A BRIEF TIME, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.
STILL NOT CERTAIN ABOUT THE IMPACTS FROM ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOME
TIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MOISTURE-STARVED, SO THINKING MAINLY CLOUDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL COULD BE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PASS US BY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TREND TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOOKING LIKE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, THOUGH WITH LOWER-END VFR/BORDERLINE MVFR AT BDL. S TO SW
WINDS 5-10 KT.
FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25-30 KT. POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WELL. POSSIBLE
AREAS OF MVFR AFTER 21Z WITH -SHRA ARRIVING AROUND 00Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING VCSH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA
LIKELY.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW MARINE HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT TO SHIFT TO S
AND THEN SW TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ON ALL
WATERS.
SCA ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM 00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN. SCA
IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-09Z SAT FOR BUZZARDS, NANTUCKET, AND CAPE COD
BAYS. WHILE A FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, SHALLOW MIXING
DEPTH OVER THE COOLER MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY RESULTS IN
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...MENSCH/FT
MARINE...MENSCH/FT
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