823
FXUS61 KBOX 130007
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
707 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, DRYING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FEW FLAKES OR SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE BERKSHIRES.
* MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, LEADING TO
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WANTING TO VIEW THE AURORA. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAT WHAT WE SAW EARLIER WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WHERE TO BRING THE FORECAST BACK IN
LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BERKSHIRES INTO TONIGHT. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
MODEST W WINDS WHICH WILL PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BLUSTERY AND COOL THURSDAY
THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES WILL PASS MOSTLY
SOUTH OF NEW ENG. IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS PWATS ARE
DECREASING, BUT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A POCKET OF COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH -32C AT 500 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WITH NW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL
PROFILE SO EXPECT HIGHS MID-UPPER 40S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BLUSTERY AND COOL FRI AND SAT
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BEGIN AS SOME ICE AT THE ONSET ACROSS
NORTHERN MA
* MAINLY DRY AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST ON SAT WITH FINAL SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN A PASSING FLURRY OR LIGHT SHOWER FRI IT
LOOKS DRY, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SAT AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO
THE EAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRI AND SAT.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIVING SE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
PARENT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE LAKES AND TRACKING TO THE NORTH
ON SUN. WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING SUN. THE COLUMN IS WARMING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SO MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO SUPPORT BRIEF ICING AT THE
ONSET SAT NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN MA. RAIN MAY LINGER
INTO SUN MORNING BUT TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING CONDITIONS ON SUN
AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP EXITS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. WEST WIND
5-10 KT, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AT ACK.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING WNW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA LIKELY.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. RA LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
CHANCE RA.
MONDAY: WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK
MAINLY W TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING BELOW 25 KT OVER NE MA
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THU AS WINDS BECOME NW. ROUGH SEAS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
9 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...GUEST
NEAR TERM...BELK/GUEST
SHORT TERM...GUEST
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...GUEST
MARINE...KJC/GUEST
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