784
FXUS61 KBOX 301732
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1232 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES, MAINLY NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT
INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY.
- VESSEL ICING DUE TO ACCRETION OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE
WATERS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGAN TO DOMINATE NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS
PASSED THROUGH. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE
AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 10 C/KM BY
SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
DEEP MIXING IN THE 825-850 MB RANGE, PERHAPS EVEN A HAIR HIGHER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING GUSTS
35-40 KTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS THIS
MORNING, AND AS THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND FURTHER INCREASE SURFACE WINDS TO
40-50 KTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE GROUND IN WESTERN MA
TODAY AS SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MOVES ACROSS NY. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COATING OF
SNOW FOR ANY ONE GIVEN AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES, MAINLY NEW YEARS
EVE NIGHT INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY.
EXPECTING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE USA INTO THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THERE ARE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DETAIL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MEMBERS
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE, THIS IS BROAD AGREEMENT ON THE
BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN. IT'S A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD, MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR IN THE NW FLOW UNTIL THE
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN, WITH WEAK-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SYSTEMS BEING
FAVORED, NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH IN THE SNOW DEPARTMENT.
ANTICIPATING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
2026.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THIS COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEW YEARS EVE
NIGHT TO EARLY NEW YEARS DAY COULD BRING SOME DECORATIVE PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ISN'T LIKELY
FOR MOST. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOWFALL COULD BE TOWARD THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR A RELATIVELY
RARE OCEAN- ENHANCED SNOWFALL FROM A SOUTHWEST WIND. AGAIN, THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE TIME SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VESSEL ICING DUE TO ACCRETION OF LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE WATERS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MOSTLY FOR MARINE INTERESTS, BUT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY MILDER OCEAN WATERS, PERIODS OF FREEZING
SPRAY COULD ACCRETE ON VESSELS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JANUARY. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANTICIPATED FREEZING SPRAY ON ANY
PARTICULAR DAY WOULD REACH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY ICING RATES,
WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS.
DAYS WHICH HAVE LOWER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WOULD HAVE A
LESSER RISK. HOWEVER, WE DID WANT TO GIVE IT AT LEAST A MENTION,
SINCE THE RISK FOR LIGHT VESSEL ICING DUE TO FREEZING SPRAY
COULD EXIST FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD GIVEN THE SPELL OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES UPCOMING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. BKN CLOUDS 4-6K FT WITH A FEW FLURRIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING WITH BKN SCTRATO-CU REDEVELOPING WED. W GUSTS 30-40
KT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW YEARS DAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT NOT OF LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO STORM WARNINGS. WINDS
AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS,
MAINLY THE NEARSHORE WATERS, BEGINS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
NEW YEARS DAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL
VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ003-005>007-
010>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002-004-008-
009-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/MCMINN
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...BELK/MCMINN
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