775
FXUS61 KBOX 271153
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
753 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY MINOR SPLASHOVER AT NANTUCKET DUE TO
THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR WESTERN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TODAY WILL BE OF A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DRY WEEKEND AND THE
UPCOMING WET PATTERN. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE IN
INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS MORNING
AS AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER
AWAY. A MID- LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN. INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
MLCAPE VALUES 500-1200 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR ARE IN LITTLE TO MARGINAL VALUES WHICH WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE STORMS RATHER THAN SEVERE. WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING FURTHER WEST, THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED AS WELL
(ISOLATED TO SCATTERED). THE GREATEST RISK OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FOR WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DUE TO THE LOWER COVERAGE NATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE LOWER
END (15-30%) FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 10%) FOR
A STRAY SHOWER/STORM TO MAKE INTO CENTRAL MA/CT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.0-1.25" IN THE AFTERNOON,
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH ANY STORMS ALONGSIDE THE
LIGHTNING RISK.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOSER TO 1.5". LOW CLOUDS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT IN A PLUME OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (120-
170% OF NORMAL) INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY
APPROACH 1.75-2.0" BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 500 MB LOW CLOSES OFF
GENERALLY WEST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD
INTO LATE-WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE VITAL WITH THE
MAGNITUDE AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS ROBUST SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE LOW
STRENGTH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TRACK. THE TRACKING OF THE LOW CENTER
AND FEATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE FORCING IS FOR BANDED HEAVY RAIN (LLJ POSITION,
FRONTOGENESIS). THE NOTABLE SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY ACROSS MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW DETAILS HAS TRANSLATED DIRECTLY TO RAIN TOTALS
AS WELL RATE RATES AND LOCATION OF BANDS. THIS CREATES A COMPLEX
FORECAST WHERE LEVERAGING THE FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IS KEY
INSTEAD OF HONING IN ON ONE SOLUTION.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT AN ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE FOR LATE JULY
TRACKS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
LATE-WEEK. THE COOLER-SEASON LIKE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH THE MOIST, UNSTABLE WARM SEASON AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR BANDED RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES. SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT DEEP MOISTURE WITH SUFFICIENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ACCOMPANIED
BY INSTABILITY. ALL IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES AND THUS
HEAVIER RATES AS WELL. TRACK WILL ALSO INFLUENCE TIMING OF THIS TO
SOME EXTENT AS WELL. GENERALLY THE RAIN INCREASES FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE GREATER RISK OF WESTERN
LOCATIONS SEEING THE FIRST TRUE PUSH OF RAIN IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY IS WHERE WE WILL SEE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL/RATES. AS THE LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH IT WILL WRAP
AROUND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS IT VERY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WOULD CONTINUE RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
EVEN FRIDAY.
ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RAIN TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF ENS LEANED HIGHER WITH TOTALS COMPARED TO THE
GEFS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL BE VITAL IN WHERE THE HIGHER TOTALS END UP. A
MORE PREDICTABLE MECHANISM THAT MAY ACT TO ENHANCE AMOUNTS IS THE
UPSLOPE. SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SE TO E ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
ENHANCE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKSHIRES AND EVEN TO
SOME EXTENT THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN QPF FIELDS
ACROSS MODELS GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.
THE ECMWF ENS HIGHLIGHTED LOW PROBS (10-30%) FOR 4"+ ALONG THE EAST
SLOPE. DETAILS ON THE RAIN RATES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS MODELS
DEVELOP A BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS FEATURES
AS WELL. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RATES WILL BE
FAVORED THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. WPC HAS PLACED US IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO MESSAGE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE WED-
EARLY THU TIMEFRAME.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAGNITUDE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. GIVEN
THE FULL MOON/SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES, STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW MAY
BRING SOME SPLASHOVER TO LOCATIONS LIKE NANTUCKET FOR THE WED NIGHT
HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY SCATTER/EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS
12-15Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR INTERIOR AND N/NNE LESS
THAN 8 KTS FOR EAST TERMINALS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. (MODERATE FOR TIMING OF VFR FOR CAPE
TERMINALS)
LOWER IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE SCATTERED OUT FOR CAPE AND ISLANDS
BY 15Z OTHERWISE VFR TODAY. ESE TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS. LOW CHANCE
(< 25%) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER 18Z FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS (BDL). TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO HAVE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VCSH IN THERE RIGHT NOW.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH THE GENERAL TREND BEING
DETERIORATING CEILINGS TOWARD LOW END VFR/MVFR, WITH LOCALIZED
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INCREASES FOR
TUESDAY. LIGHT S WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SCATTERED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SCATTERED SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA, PATCHY BR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-4 FT TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS RISING TO 5 FT. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE STILL IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THIS WILL INFLUENCE WIND
MAGNITUDE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (< 15%) FOR ISOLATED
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES, NO GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MENSCH
AVIATION...MENSCH/FT
MARINE...MENSCH
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