785
FXUS61 KBOX 141846
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
246 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AND EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST
WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* FEW POP-UP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS PROVIDING SMALL
AMOUNTS OF FORCING, HELPING TO INITIATE POP-UP STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN OUT OF THE
DEVELOPING CELLS AS QPF AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR SO
THE MOST LIKELY. CURRENT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER, BUT NOT ALL CELLS WILL DEVELOP LIGHTNING. THIS
AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
EXPECTING THE INTERIOR TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COAST OF MA AND RI/EASTERN CT WILL REMAIN MORE
MOIST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
PULLING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY AND QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
QUEBEC. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS BRINGS ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, EXCEPT THE
EASTERN SHORES OF MA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF
THIS WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER IN
THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S BY LATE THIS WEEK.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM EASTERN CANADA
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME,
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THINGS COULD GET A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE EAST COAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BUT NEVER QUITE MAKE IT
HERE. THAT SAID, THIS IS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. EVEN THEN, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST, WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE. BY FRIDAY, EXPECTING A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA.
TEMPERATURES LOOKING MORE LIKE AUTUMN THAN SUMMER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z UPDATE...
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS. LOW RISK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON -SHRA
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW TO N WINDS.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LOW RISK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON -SHRA.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VCSH THROUGH 20Z AS SOME BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP
IN THE AREA.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TODAY. VERY LOW RISK FOR A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS TOWARDS THE RI AND SE MA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER AND SEAS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...MCMINN
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MCMINN
MARINE...MCMINN
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