779
FXUS61 KBOX 161311
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
911 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BUMPED UP TODAY/S HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF SMOKE.
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKY CONDITIONS TO REDUCE AIR QUALITY BUT HIGHS STILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS PASSING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS LATE THIS
WEEKEND, THEN COOLING OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SMOKY CONDITIONS TO REDUCE AIR QUALITY BUT HIGHS
STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE CONTINUED PLUME OF
SMOKE EMANATING FROM THE ONGOING WILDFIRES BURNING IN FAR
WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. AIR QUALITY ALERTS
CONTINUE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR FINE PARTICULATE MATTER (PM2.5)
OWING TO THE SMOKE AT THE REQUEST OF MA, CT AND RI STATE
ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCIES.
ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING A
CONDUIT FOR THE TRANSPORT OF THIS SMOKE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS LEADING TO HAZY, SMOKY, BROWNISH-YELLOW
SKIES AND REDUCED SOLAR INSOLATION OWING TO THE SMOKE LIMITING
TEMPERATURE WARMING. WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE MORE OF THE SAME TODAY.
LATEST NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR-SMOKE AND RRFS
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE ARRIVING INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING, SPREADING ESE TODAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO FINE PARTICULATES SHOULD
TAKE THE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTSIDE
TODAY, BUT THAT COULD BE SENSIBLE ADVICE FOR ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TODAY. GIVEN THE SUNNY START AND THE LATER ARRIVAL OF
SMOKE HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90....BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT BRINGS PASSING SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY.
PRETTY POTENT COLD FRONT ANALYZED NEAR CENTRAL QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
AND INTO NORTHERN MA/NORTH SHORE AND OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY, AND COULD TURN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH, THOUGH I'M
SKEPTICAL SINCE MIXING COULD BE REDUCED WITH THE PERSISTENT
SMOKY HAZE. GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE BULLISH ON STRONG T- STORMS WELL
TO OUR NORTH WHERE MORE INSOLATION LEADS TO STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND BETTER WIND FIELDS THERE AS WELL. STILL LEFT
OPEN A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TODAY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NH AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA, BUT MOST OF
THE AREA END UP DRY. WINDSHIFT TO NW OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DEWPOINTS CRASH INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S. THE PASSAGE OF THE
THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO HELP ORIENT THE SMOKE PLUME MORE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLING OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TURNS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AGAIN BY SATURDAY. SEASONABLY-
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PARENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. PWATS OFF THE
21Z/15TH RUN OF THE SREF SHOW VALUES INCREASING TO NEARLY 2
INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST, WHICH COULD FAVOR DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE QPF PROBS SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH (40-60%)
PROBS OF 24-HR RAINS OF AT LEAST ONE- HALF INCH, AND LOW (< 30%)
PROBS OF 24-HR RAINS OF AT LEAST 1 INCH. INSTABILITY PROFILES
LOOK TALL AND SKINNY, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE PRETTY
STRONG FOR MID-JULY (30-40 KT SW FLOW AT 950 MB IS NOTABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT), WITH MACHINE LEARNING PROGS SHOWING LOW PROBS
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THIS FRONT CLEARS ON SUNDAY, USHERING IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER,
DRIER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS FOR MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +9 TO +11C MONDAY, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS, BUT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE.
MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
INTO THE 3 TO 6 SM RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT,
WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES TOWARD BDL AND ORH. A PASSING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING SCATTERED SHRA TO NORTHERN MA AFTER 21Z, BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM TAFS. LESS-SMOKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT,
BUT POTENTIAL FOR LOWER GUSTS IF DAYTIME SMOKE LIMITS MIXING.
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGS A NW WIND SHIFT TO AROUND 10 KT
MAINLY NORTHERN MA BEFORE 00Z, AND ACROSS REMAINING TAFS THRU
LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SMOKE/HAZE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FRIDAY.
NW TO W WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR, HAZY/SMOKY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCE OF VISBYS IN SMOKE DROPPING
TO 4-6 SM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT, THEN IMPROVING AFTER
01Z. W GUSTS TO 25-28 KT, BUT GUSTS COULD BE LOWER IF SMOKE
REDUCES MIXING; WINDSHIFT TO NW EARLY TONIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR, HAZY/SMOKY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. VISBYS THEN DROP INTO THE 3-5 SM RANGE
(LOW PROB OF IFR VISBY) BY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A
THICK LAYER OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE. W GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, BUT
GUSTS COULD BE LOWER IF SMOKE REDUCES MIXING. WINDSHIFT TO NW
AFTER 03Z WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WESTERLY GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE GUSTS THAN USUAL FOR AN SCA AS PERSISTENT SMOKY
CONDITIONS COULD REDUCE MIXING. WINDSHIFT TO NW OCCURS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT. NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AT
SUB-SCA LEVELS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
SMOKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 3-6 MILES. MORE IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
TONIGHT, WITH GOOD VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/LOCONTO
AVIATION...BELK/LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO
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