814
FXUS61 KBOX 082342
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
742 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS
MANY OF OUR WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT MORNING BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPS
SAT MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
DEGREES.
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING AN
END TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CLEARING WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE WITH THE COOLEST OF THOSE READINGS IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS
OF NORTHWEST MA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT MORNING BECOME WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
TEMPS SAT MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION SAT MORNING. THIS FORCING
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SAT MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BUT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SOUTHERLY LLJ FURTHER AND THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
WELL. SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED T-STORM
OR TWO LATER SAT INTO SAT EVENING. GREATEST RISK OF AN ISOLATED T-
STORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS RI/SE MA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD THREAT. WE SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE
STEADY RAIN EXIT THE COAST BY LATE SAT EVENING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST.
THE CLOUDS, ONSHORE FLOW AND ARRIVING RAIN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES PERSISTING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
EXPECTING ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SURGE OF
WARM, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY - BRINGING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS, BUT ALSO
INCREASING PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.0" OR SO. THIS SUPPORTS BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO PLACE LATER
MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE MID-50S
MONDAY TO THE LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME ON THURSDAY, BUT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LONGER TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT MORNING WILL RESULT IN LOW END VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE LOWER CIGS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO LOWER END
MVFR-IFR THRESHOLDS. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR
TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE COAST BY LATE EVENING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO A SSE DIRECTION BY SAT AFTERNOON THE ORDER OF 5-15
KNOTS. SOME 20-25 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
COAST LATE SAT INTO SAT EVENING ALONG WITH SOME LLWS TOO.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SAT. THIS WILL INDUCE
A MODEST S-SW LLJ AND DESPITE THE INVERSION STILL EXPECT SW WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LONG SW
FETCH WILL ALSO RESULT IN 4-5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER-WATERS.
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR
MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS GIVEN BOTH WINDS/SEAS WILL BE NEAR OR
EXCEEDING CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK/MCMINN
AVIATION...FRANK/MCMINN
MARINE...FRANK/MCMINN
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