476
FXUS61 KBOX 181145
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
645 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS LED
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A COASTAL STORM THAT
COULD IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THOUGH IT IS STILL
QUITE EARLY AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- COMPLEX SYSTEM BRINGS A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT INCLUDING SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
- WATCHING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY MUCH A TRICKY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HREF AND 3-KM NAM. MEANWHILE, THE
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP A SECONDARY AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST, FOLLOWED
THE CONSENSUS TREND, BUT REMAIN WARY OF THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SECONDARY BAND.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. THE SHIFT
OF THE PRECIPITATION TOWARD HIGHER TEMPERATURES MEANS A WETTER
SNOWFALL, WHICH REDUCES THE OVERALL AMOUNT. MUCH PREFERRED THE
HREF REPRESENTATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, AS THE NATIONALBLEND
SOLUTION HAD ENTIRELY TOO MUCH FREEZING RAIN. THIS MEANS SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA, WITH RAIN
MOST LIKELY ELSEWHERE AT THE ONSET THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES LOWER TOWARD THIS EVENING, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
SNOWFALL IS COMPLETE.
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA FOR 2-4" OF SNOWFALL. CONTEMPLATED EXPANDING AN ADVISORY INTO
NORTHERN CT AND SOUTHERN RI DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING.
DECIDED AGAINST IT AS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD ICING IS LOW AS
WELL AS THE WINDOW OF TIME WHEN ICING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS TODAY.
THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FARTHER EAST, INCLUDING THE
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AREAS, SINCE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY MAY BE TOO
WARM TO ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. WE STILL THINK 1-2" SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION ENDS SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER
THAN ITS CURRENT END TIMING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COMPLEX SYSTEM BRINGS A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INCLUDING SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
RAIN. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
BRIEF RIDGING THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD OF WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SURFACE WARM FRONT NE
TOWARDS THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HINTED AT A SECONDARY
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MORE ON THAT SECOND DETAIL BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES LEAN
TOWARDS A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
RESOLVING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT STRONG WAA.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT END "THUMP" OF SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT VALUES OF OMEGA
IN THE DGZ (-15-20 UBAR/SEC). P-TYPE FORECAST LOOKS A BIT MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AS MARGINAL TEMPS MAY
LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WHILE A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE ALSO
INTRODUCED THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF FZRA WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
MAGNITUDE AND EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL WARM NOSE.
DETAILS THAT WILL BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLES THAT SHOW SECONDARY LOW FORMATION NEAR OR S OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORMATION OF EVEN A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD HELP TO PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH AND
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS, MAINLY NORTH OF THE PIKE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE CHANCE FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE IS BETWEEN 15-30% AND 40-55%
CHANCE TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WATCHING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT AS
USUAL AT THIS TIME RANGE, WE ARE SEEING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
AND HIGH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY EVEN AMONG ENSEMBLES.
MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CAN CLOSE OFF AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST, WHICH IS DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONGER RIDGE, AS
SEEN IN PREVIOUS GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS, WOULD HELP THE LOW TO
CLOSE OFF MORE QUICKLY AND GAIN A NEGATIVE TILT, ALLOWING THE
COASTAL STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
HIGHER IMPACTS. CONVERSELY, A WEAKER RIDGE, AS DEPICTED BY THE
MORE RECENT 00Z GUIDANCE, WOULD MEAN THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
LATER AND MAINTAINS MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT, KEEPING THE COASTAL
STORM MORE OUT TO SEA. IT'S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THE AI
VERSIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF, WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL THIS
WINTER, ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND CONTINUE TO BRING THE LOW CLOSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND
ISLANDS.
RIGHT NOW ODDS FAVOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT TO CT, RI, AND SE MA
IF NOT MORE OF THE AREA, BUT KEEP IN MIND WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS
OUT AND PROBABLY WON'T SEE ANY NOTABLE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY AT THE EARLIEST. SO FOR NOW, EXPECT TO SEE THE USUAL
RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SOME
SHOWING BIG HITS. IT'S JUST WAY TOO SOON TO LOCK INTO ANY ONE
MODEL SOLUTION.
ONE THING THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MARINE IMPACTS, EVEN WITH A
MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. WE ARE APPROACHING HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MUCH OF EASTERN MA COAST COULD BE
VULNERABLE TO AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NE GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, GIVEN FACT THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL STORM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. FOG LIKELY TO
LINGER TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
PUSH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HELPS TO IMPROVE CIGS TO VFR/MVFR
ACROSS N MA. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CHANGES TO LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE (EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS) BY
LATE AFTERNOON, ENDING TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
BULK OF THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY S OF BOS.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED FROM NE TO SW TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
VFR THURSDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER WITH THE MID LEVELS. SO CEILINGS
MAY BE PRIMARILY MVFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA,
CHANCE SN, CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
CHANCE RA, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFTOVER E SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 5 FT
SEAS ON OUTER WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO
3 NM.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
SNOW, SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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