090
FXUS61 KBOX 081116
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
716 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGHS CONSISTENTLY IN
THE 60S AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY. SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE
FROSTY IN SPOTS.
- THE NEXT QUICK MOVING ROUND OF RAIN COMES SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, EXITING SOMETIME ON MONDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING IS LOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGING
WINDS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGHS CONSISTENTLY
IN THE 60S AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY. SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE FROSTY
IN SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER ONCE WE GET
PAST TODAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE
COLD FRONT COMING SWINGING THROUGH THIS MORNING. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING (WEST) AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (EAST). KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MOST, THOUGH MANY WILL STAY DRY. AFTER A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDCOVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLEAR SKIES
RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVERHEAD THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY. COOL NW FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CAUSES 925MB
TEMPS TO DROP FROM 15C TODAY TO 8-10C FRI/SAT LEADING HIGH TEMPS TO
STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE AIRMASS MODERATES SUNDAY
AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT QUICK MOVING ROUND OF RAIN COMES SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EXITING SOMETIME ON MONDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGING WINDS
AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ARE SWEPT UP IN A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS
USHERS IT THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY BEFORE DEEPENING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. WHILE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE GOOD, AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MITIGATE FLOODING ISSUES. ON THE WHOLE THIS
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL RAIN MAKER FOR THE REGION WITHOUT
HAZARDS FROM FLOODING OR DAMAGING WINDS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY PAINTS A
PICTURE OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR NORTHERN MA TO 1.25" ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >1" OF RAIN ARE ESSENTIALLY NIL EXCEPT FOR
10-20% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME 20+
KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES. A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. WSW WIND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
AND BECOME W BY THU NIGHT. VFR FRIDAY WITH W WIND 10-15 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SHRA
LIKELY.
COLUMBUS DAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO
THU AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR
WATERS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS LATER
THU AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING LEADING TO W WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
COLUMBUS DAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
251.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...MCMINN
MARINE...BW
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