599
FXUS61 KBOX 100653
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
253 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MANY OF OUR WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY & EVEN MILDER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT COOLER LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ON THE SOUTH COAST. BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
- DRY & SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
- SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MON AND POTENTIALLY 80+ TUE. DURATION
OF WARMTH IS UNCERTAIN, WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LURKING
NEARBY MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY & EVEN MILDER WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT COOLER
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON THE SOUTH COAST. BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...S-SW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS WORKING INTO THE REGION TODAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS FLIRTING WITH 70. IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH TOWARDS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A MODIFIED MARINE AIRMASS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND
ISLANDS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THOSE SPOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED...BUT BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH
AMOUNTS QUITE LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY & SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S
WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.
DRY AND SEASONABLE APRIL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SAT WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
DAY SAT. HIGHS SAT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH DIMINISHING
WIND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT
NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...BUT EXPECT SOME
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 55 AND 60. HOWEVER...A WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES AND LOCALIZED COOLER TEMPS ALONG PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MON AND POTENTIALLY 80+ TUE.
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH MAY LINGER WED & THU...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LURKING NEARBY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. A FEW
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MON AND
POTENTIAL FOR SUMMERLIKE WARMTH BY TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT
FIELDS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CURRENTLY THINKING HIGHS WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MON AND POTENTIALLY 80+ BY TUE
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POTENTIAL SEA BREEZES. SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH MAY PERSIST WED & THU...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LURKING
NEARBY. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF SE MA
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORT AFTER SUNRISE.
WE ALSO MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH BRIEF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
S-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A MODEST SW LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME LLWS TONIGHT.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT
WITH GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z OR SO...
WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE TERMINAL AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE WITH
BETTER MIXING NEAR THE LAND. IN FACT...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
NEARSHORE 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL REQUIRE
HEADLINES ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS INTO SAT. WE ALSO EXPECT MARGINAL
NEARSHORE NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON SAT WITH GOOD MIXING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CLIMATE
SINCE WE ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT OUR FIRST 80-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK, HERE ARE SOME STATS
REGARDING AVERAGE, EARLIEST, AND LATEST 80-DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
NOTE THAT HARTFORD (BRADLEY) ALREADY HIT 80 DEGREES THIS YEAR
BACK ON MARCH 31.
BOSTON:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 21, 1921, LATEST JUNE 16, 1924
PROVIDENCE:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 20, 1945, LATEST JUNE 18, 1924
HARTFORD:
AVERAGE APRIL 28, EARLIEST MARCH 9, 2016, LATEST JUNE 15, 1924
WORCESTER:
AVERAGE MAY 4, EARLIEST MARCH 15, 1990, LATEST JUNE 10, 1997
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
DISCUSSION...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
CLIMATE...JWD
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