374  
FXUS61 KBOX 011115  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
615 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY, CONTINUING THE  
DRY WEATHER, BUT NOT AS COLD OR WINDY AS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT UNSETTLED CONCERNING  
RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT, WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY  
WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER  
TODAY. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. WIND  
DIRECTIONS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SW BY LATE MORNING, WHICH WILL  
HELP TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BUT IS STILL  
EXPECTED TO CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE CT RIVER VERY LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, WITH A LOT OF  
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MID LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING SATURDAY, AND A LOW PRESSURE  
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHAT IS  
NOT AS CERTAIN, WILL BE THE IMPACT OF A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE  
TO START OUT THE DAY. THINKING THAT THIS RIDGE WILL DELAY THE  
ONSET OF RAINFALL THE FARTHER EAST ONE IS IN SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. EVENTUALLY, THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW  
PRESSURE SHOULD OVERCOME THE HIGH PRESSURE AND BRING SOME  
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH, WITH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO  
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY POINT  
 
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH PERIODS OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND  
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COASTAL LOW APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE  
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING JUST OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. THE LATEST GFS  
AND EURO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF  
THE LOW NOW SLOWING IT DOWN AND BRINGING IT FURTHER NORTH. THIS  
BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF ESPECIALLY TO RI AND SE MA. HOWEVER,  
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT A SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH THE  
25TH-75TH PERCENTILES SHOWING 0.15-1.05 INCHES OF RAIN. THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND WRAP UP  
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRY MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW.  
THE LOW STALLS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND  
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINING DRY,  
WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS STAY SATURATED DUE TO MOIST NE FLOW.  
THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 50S FOR WESTERN MA AND CT, WHILE EASTERN MA AND RI  
STAY COOLER IN THE LOW 50S DUE TO THE COOL NE FLOW.  
 
TUESDAY - FRIDAY  
 
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE IS LOW WITH LARGE SPREAD IN THE  
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW SENDING SEVERAL WEAK  
DISTURBANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY  
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY,  
BUT QPF LOOKS LIGHT AT THE MOMENT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND  
COASTAL LOW MOVE OVER THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WINTER PRECIP TO THE REGION IF AN  
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CAN SET UP TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC AND NOVA  
SCOTIA. AS FOR TEMPS IN THIS TIME PERIOD, HIGHS STAY IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN COOL OFF TO THE LOW  
TO MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW/SSW DURING THE  
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 GUSTING 20 KTS.  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR TO START, BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT  
PROGRESSES. COULD HAVE SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH  
RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO WESTERN MA/CT MID SATURDAY MORNING.  
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW/S AT 5-10 KTS.  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR TO START, WITH MVFR AND IFR INCREASING FROM W TO E DURING  
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. S  
WINDS CONTINUE.  
 
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS THIS  
MORNING, TURNING SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINOR GUSTS. RAIN AND  
MVFR CIGS STAY OUT OF BOSTON BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.  
 
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS THIS  
MORNING TURNING SW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS MOVE IN  
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.  
SHRA, CHANCE RA.  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.  
 
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.  
 
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
RA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS  
MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LESS THAN 235 KT  
THIS MORNING, AND HAVE TIMED OUT THE EXPIRATION OF THESE  
ADVISORIES TO MATCH. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TODAY,  
MOVING FARTHER EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SHOULD  
REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. NW WINDS BECOMING  
SW TODAY, THEN SHIFTING TO S TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ROUGH SEAS  
LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, THEN SHOULD  
BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN, RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF  
RAIN.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO  
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF  
RAIN.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-  
251-256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-  
254-255.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KP  
NEAR TERM...BELK/KP  
SHORT TERM...BELK  
LONG TERM...KP  
AVIATION...BELK/KP  
MARINE...BELK/KP  
 
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