912  
FGUS71 KPHI 101742  
ESFPHI  
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-  
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-  
077-089-091-095-101-121745-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1242 PM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 1  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2019 SEASON.  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL FLOOD POTENTIAL  
STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF  
RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER  
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.  
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT  
CONDITIONS SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER  
AND ITS WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW,  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY  
FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.  
 
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR  
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY  
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN  
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID BETWEEN JANUARY 10 TO 24, 2019.  
 
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE  
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS  
OUTLOOK AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK.  
 
NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT  
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM) NEW YORK OFFICE.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.  
 
RECENT PRECIPITATION - WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BETWEEN 5.0 AND 7.0  
INCHES OF LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE HSA. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE WATER SUPPLY TAB).  
 
SNOW COVER - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW  
COVER ACROSS THE HSA. DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT  
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE  
SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL  
ANALYSIS TAB).  
 
RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. LITTLE, IF ANY, ICE EXISTS  
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE HSA.  
 
STREAMFLOW - ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER  
DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)  
BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE  
MONITORING CHARTS (LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM  
NOAA'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING  
WEBSITES...  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_  
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND  
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW  
NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITONAL INFORMATION CAN BE  
FOUND AT HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS  
IN THE AREA ARE RUNNING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT  
PORTIONS OF THE HSA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MUCH OF WHAT  
FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MILDER  
PATTERN THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF NEXT  
WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TOWARD  
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,  
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS  
OUTLOOK AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK. FUTURE RAINFALL IS  
THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THIS DETERMINATION.  
 
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY  
RAIN EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD,  
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, JANUARY 17, 2019. FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF  
THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD, THE LATEST LONG-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED  
BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD  
ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HSA.  
 
2018 WAS A VERY WET YEAR FOR US. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD RAINFALL  
WAS RECORDED.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW AND RIVER ICE ARE CURRENTLY  
NEGLIGIBLE, SOILS ARE VERY WET AND STREAMFLOW IS HIGH ACROSS THE  
HSA. AS A RESULT, A SINGLE, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN EXCESS  
OF TWO INCHES WITHIN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS WOULD STILL LIKELY CAUSE  
SOME SORT OF RIVER FLOODING.  
 
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI  
 

 
 
SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH JANUARY 24, 2019:  
 
OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL WEEK ONE, ABOVE NORMAL WEEK TWO  
FLOODING...NONE  
RECENT PRECIPITATION...WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
SNOW COVER...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL  
RIVER ICE...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL  
STREAMFLOW...ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
SOIL MOISTURE...ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
GROUND WATER...VARIABLE, BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  
 

 
 
KRUZDLO  
 
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