868  
FGUS71 KPHI 211337  
ESFPHI  
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-  
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-  
077-089-091-095-101-231345-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
937 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2019  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 6  
 
THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL FLOOD POTENTIAL  
STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF  
RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER  
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.  
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT  
CONDITIONS SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER  
AND ITS WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW,  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY  
FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.  
 
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR  
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY  
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN  
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID BETWEEN MARCH 21 TO APRIL 4, 2019.  
 
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE  
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE TWO  
WEEK PERIOD.  
 
NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE  
STATEMENT  
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM) NEW YORK OFFICE.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. BUT A FLOOD WATCH IS UP TODAY AND TONIGHT  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HSA. THIS INCLUDES THE I95 CORRIDOR AND  
LOCALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A FLOOD WATCH SUGGESTS FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4.5 INCHES OF LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE  
LAST 30 DAYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE HSA. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS  
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE WATER SUPPLY  
TAB).  
 
SNOW COVER - NORMAL. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW COVERS THE GROUND  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE THIRD  
WEEK OF MARCH. DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES  
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL  
INTEREST TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS  
TAB).  
 
RIVER ICE - NORMAL. NO RIVER ICE IS BEING OBSERVED ON AREA  
STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH IS FAIRLY COMMON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS  
TIME OF YEAR.  
 
STREAMFLOW - NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE  
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) BY VISITING  
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING  
CHARTS (LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM NOAA'S  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING  
WEBSITES...  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_  
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND  
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW  
NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITONAL INFORMATION CAN BE  
FOUND AT HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS  
IN THE AREA ARE RUNNING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS  
WILL DELIVER A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST  
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. A  
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY AND  
TO OUR SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT, AND RAIN EVENT,  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST AROUND MONDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK. THE OVERALL 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO  
CONSIDERATION, THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THE TWO WEEK PERIOD.  
 
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI  
 
THE NEXT REGULARLY-SCHEDULED FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON  
APRIL 4TH, 2019.  
 

 
 
SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 4, 2019:  
 
OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...ABOVE NORMAL  
FLOODING...NONE, ALTHOUGH A FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED TODAY AND  
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE, BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  
SNOW COVER...NORMAL  
RIVER ICE...NORMAL  
STREAMFLOW...NORMAL  
SOIL MOISTURE...ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
GROUND WATER...VARIABLE, BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  
 

 
 
KRUZDLO  
 
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