427  
FNUS71 KPHI 030932  
FWSPHI  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR RT 46 FIRE...NJFFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
532 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0627 EDT ON MAY 03.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL  
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS  
THE REGION SUNDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AROUND  
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF  
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF  
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN  
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 70  
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 16 TO  
25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (116700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................2 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 107 IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST UP TO 6 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........44 51 46 42 52 51 62 68 74 76 74 78  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT ISO  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 70 60 60  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 70 60 60  
TEMP............60 61 64 67 71 74 76 79 79 78 75 76  
RH..............87 87 81 76 68 62 58 52 50 52 60 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 10 10 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 8 10 10 15 18 20 22 21 20 17  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 5 5 6 6 9 11 12 13 13 12 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.8 4.6 5.3 4.3 3.3 2.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 10 9 12 16 21 24 25 24 18 18  
ADI.............2 6 10 14 26 50 75 96 107 93 63 57  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 6 10 17 34 68 97 117 90 53 45  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR GD GD VGD GD FR FR  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................80 PERCENT IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 10  
PERCENT LATE AT NIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE  
AT NIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (28000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (1600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
ADI.................5 TO 41.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........72 81 92 94 95 98 97 97 96 96 96 96  
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF NUM DEF DEF NUM CHC CHC SCT ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO NUM NUM NUM SCT ISO ISO  
CWR.............80 80 70 80 80 60 40 30 40 20 20 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 70 80 80 60 40 30 40 20 20 10  
TEMP............74 71 68 66 65 63 63 63 62 62 61 61  
RH..............59 68 78 81 84 90 90 90 90 90 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3  
EYE LVL WND GST.9 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S SW W NE E S SE S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 9  
ADI.............41 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 4  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
SUNDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (24300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................7 TO 36.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........95 95 94 92 94 95 93 92 92 93 93 94  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............10 20 50 50 50 80 80 80 100 100 100 90  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 50 50 50 80 80 80 100 100 100 90  
TEMP............61 61 63 64 65 66 67 68 68 68 68 68  
RH..............93 93 87 87 84 81 75 76 76 76 76 76  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 13  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 14 15 16  
ADI.............7 8 12 20 23 28 24 22 20 25 30 36  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 5 9 13 16 19 16 15 14 17 20 24  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
 
 
FORECASTER...RCM  
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTOPHER FRANEK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2512697.2/PHI  
.DELDT 05/03/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL NJFFAIMT@GMAIL.COM,ERIC.WEBER@DEP.NJ.GOV  
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