011
FXUS61 KPHI 010545
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND NO HEADLINE CHANGES
WERE MADE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GUSTY WINDS AND MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM THAT GRAZES THE
AREA. ANY SNOWFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
2. A COASTAL STORM THAT SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL RESULT
IN WIND AND TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY.
3. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
4. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH TWO CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOWFALL MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES.
THE COLD CONTINUES TONIGHT THOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
LIMITED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A LACK OF WINDS
DECOUPLING. THUS, THE AMBIENT (AIR) TEMPERATURE WILL BE HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN WHAT MANY AREAS EXPERIENCED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30 MPH OUT OF
THE NORTH WITH UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE POCONOS AND THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 0 IN THE POCONOS AND
NW NJ TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
THE COMBINATION OF THOSE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR NEAR THE ENTIRE AREA AND
GETTING AS LOW AS 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO IN THE POCONOS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NJ. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLD SNAP CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S, WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL STORM THAT SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL RESULT IN WIND AND TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.
AN IMPACTFUL STORM THAT IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL JUST BRUSH OUR AREA AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE OFF
SHORE STORM FOR OUR REGION ARE STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING THE RISK FOR SNOW (AND LIGHT
SNOW AT THAT) TO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. A FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TREND
ALSO RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE WATER AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
FOR THE NJ AND DELAWARE COASTLINE, WINDS RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST OVER THE
COAST, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND THE INCOMING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN FROM THE CENTRAL US. THE MAIN CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE WAS LOWERING GUSTS SLIGHTLY AS THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SHIFTS A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. THE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN
THE SAME THOUGH. WHILE THE THREAT FOR GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAS
DECREASED, THERE STILL COULD BE SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S,
MAINLY OVER SUSSEX COUNTY, DE AND CAPE MAY COUNTY, NJ. AS A
RESULT, NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY. LESSER GUSTS EXPECTED
FURTHER UP THE COAST IN NJ, WHERE GUSTS GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN
35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE POCONOS - MORE ON
THAT BELOW), GUSTS DROP OFF EVEN MORE DRAMATICALLY, COMING IN
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL COME FROM DAYBREAK
TOMORROW THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS (CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES)
THE WIND RISK IS MOSTLY FROM A LOW TO MID LEVEL JET THAT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND AIDED BY
SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST GUSTS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING,
WHERE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IMPACTS MAY BE EXACERBATED
IN THIS AREA AS WELL SINCE SNOW AND ICE MAY STILL REMAIN ON
TREES AND WIRES.
WITH COASTAL/TIDAL FLOODING, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE FROM BARNEGAT BAY SOUTHWARD IN
NEW JERSEY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL DELAWARE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS TO RECEIVE
IMPACTS DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. AREAS FURTHER NORTH,
LIKE MANASQUAN AND SANDY HOOK COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, THOUGH GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS COME DOWN. THE
WIND DIRECTION NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTH OR EVEN
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THAT USUALLY DOES NOT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
TIDAL FLOODING NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET. AT THIS POINT, TIDAL
FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE DELAWARE BAY,
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. IN THESE AREAS, THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO UNFAVORABLE FOR
TIDAL FLOODING. MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR DURING THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE. THE WIND DIRECTION BEING PARALLEL AND THEN
SWITCHING TO MOSTLY OFF SHORE WILL HELP LIMIT COASTAL/TIDAL
FLOODING IMPACTS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE WORKING AGAINST HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH THE FULL MOON ON MONDAY, AND INCREASED
SWELLS FROM THE OFF SHORE SYSTEM. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE
IMPACTS OF TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS IS ICE THAT IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ON BAYS COULD BE PUSHED ONSHORE DURING HIGH TIDE, AND
FLOOD WATERS COULD FREEZE ON ROADWAYS.
FINALLY IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL, THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TREND HAS
RESULTED IN THE FORECAST ONLY HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH, ONLY
A FEW TENTHS AT MOST, FALLING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WHILE NO MEASURABLE SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE BROADER, LONGWAVE, MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO START THE NEW
WEEK. AS SUCH, THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUES. AREAS SUCH AS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ AND MUCH OF DELMARVA ARE LIKELY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE
MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.
THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEGAN LAST
WEEKEND (JAN 23 THROUGH 26 - VARIES DEPENDING ON THE SITE), WHICH
MEANS IF AREAS DON'T GET ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, THIS
STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ON TRACK TO BE AT LEAST 2
WEEKS LONG. THE LONGER THIS STRETCH CONTINUES, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR MORE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE INCLUDING FROZEN
PIPES AND WIDESPREAD ICE ON WATERWAYS. THIS WOULD BE A TOP FIVE
LONGEST STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MANY OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH TWO
CHANCES FOR SOME SNOWFALL MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BE A WEAK LOW THAT SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION, POSSIBLY GRAZING THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL
ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER E NM/TX PANHANDLE AND THEN PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE U.S. AND EVENTUALLY OFF
SHORE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL EVENTS, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON IF OUR REGION WILL SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW
COLD THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE. THE FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW
TRACKS, THE LESS LIKELY OUR REGION WILL SEE SNOW, BUT THE MORE
LIKELY WE WILL HAVE VERY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MEDIAN SOLUTION HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LATEST SET
OF GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HAS TRENDED DRIER AND COLDER. A BROAD 15 TO 35% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF I-78 AROUND ABOUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. NBM BLEND OF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS A 25-40%
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE POLAR JET BRINGS A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION. IT IS NOTABLE,
HOWEVER, THAT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET PIVOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US THURSDAY, JUST OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE TIMING OF EITHER
TROUGH SHIFT CLOSER TO THE OTHER AND END UP PHASING, A MORE ROBUST
SYSTEM COULD BE IN THE WORKS. THE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS
NATURALLY VERY LOW, BUT SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 0-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
15-20 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 05Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW (15-25 PERCENT).
THURSDAY...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
25-35 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE
OCEAN WITH 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SEAS, AND VERY COLD AIR OVER THE WATER, A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LESSER WAVES BUT STILL COLD AIR
AND WIND OVER DELAWARE BAY, A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BESIDES TIDAL AND FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS, ICE HAS FORMED ACROSS AREA
BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY.
ON RIVERS, THE ICE HAS GROWN IN THICKNESS ENOUGH TO START CAUSING
RESTRICTIONS IN FLOW. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN AT THE TRENTON
RIVER GAUGE.
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS PRETTY MUCH ICE COVERED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TRENTON UPSTREAM TO ABOUT WASHINGTON CROSSING.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THAT'S NOT IN THE OFFING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP
ICE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S NOT IN THE FORECAST EITHER THIS COMING WEEK.
AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE ICE WE'RE SEEING TO EXPAND BEFORE IT
CONTRACTS. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN THE GROWTH DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS COMING WEEK, TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL SUPPORT
EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, BUT SEAS EXCEEDING
5 FEET ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN CONTINUED SCA
CONDITIONS. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME LIKELY TO GET
INTO THE LOW 30S, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE.
CLIMATE
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TO SET RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND/OR
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR:
JANUARY 31
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1948 14/2019
ACY 0/1948 20/2019
PHL 3/1948 18/2019
ILG 3/1948 19/2019
RDG -5/2019 14/2019
TTN -1/1920 16/2019
MPO -15/1908 4/2019
GED 1/1948 23/2019
55N 4/1948 19/2019
NOT ALL RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ023-024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR NJZ020-022>027.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ001>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
EST TODAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/GORSE/HOEFLICH/MJL
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
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