307
FXUS61 KPHI 111836
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
236 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE ADDED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAINS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
2. SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
3. INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME SHOWER CHANCES. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES GET MUCH COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAINS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS FORMERLY ISAIAS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
WHILE MOVING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN NC/VA AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND IT WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST LARGE AREA OF RAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE PA/NJ AREAS WHILE A BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAINS IS
TRAILING ACROSS ERN MD/DE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA WILL
FILL IN AFTER SUNSET AS MORE DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TOO. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, MOST SPOTS WILL NOT HAVE ONE. DELMARVA
AND SOUTH NJ ARE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE SOME THUNDER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OR NORTHEAST FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS COULD TURN
SOUTH ACROSS SE DELAWARE NEAR WHERE THE LOW PASSES BY.
A SOAKING RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, BUT MORE OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING STORM TOTAL RAINS UP INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR MOST
AREAS. THE RAINS (SO FAR) HAVE OCCURRED AT A RATE WHICH HAS
LIMITED ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
THE CASE OVERNIGHT TOO. LIMITED PONDING ON ROADS AND OTHER MINOR
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER. WPC HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT, WHICH MEANS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE RAINS END TONIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THRU DAWN. LOWER VSBYS IN FOG MAY CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2. SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR KENT COUNTY, DE.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED THERE, WITH SPOTTY
MINOR OBSERVED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND OTHER PARTS OF
DELAWARE BAY.
AS WE GET AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON AND FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY,
TIDE LEVELS WILL DECLINE. SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND
DELAWARE BAY. NO CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE UP, BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ONE FOR BARNEGAT BAY AS IT MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO DRAIN.
NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
OR CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY
THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES GET MUCH COOLER.
AN EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP
THE FLOW MORE ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT LEADING TO SOME SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS LIMITED. THE COLD
FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BY THURSDAY, IT IS DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, ON TUESDAY HIGHS REACH THE 70S FOR MANY WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS MAINLY REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIATION AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THIS
BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS OF RIGHT NOW, AT
THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY LEADING TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. OVER THE WEEKEND, FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S. IT WILL
ALSO BE A WINDY PERIOD DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF LIFR EXPECTED
TOO. RAINS WILL FAVOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT AFTER RAINS
TAPER THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO RUN OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS MANY AREAS
WITH GUSTS 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS TREND MORE NORTH BY DAWN. MEDIUM
CONFID.
MONDAY
SLOW MORNING IMPROVEMENT WITH HIGH-END IFR AND LOW-END MVFR
GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR FROM NW TO SE THRU THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST MOSTLY 10 TO 15
KTS. LOW/MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS AND
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TSTM. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON TOO. SCA
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD BUT A COUPLE LOW-END GALE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR TOO. WINDS ACROSS DELAWARE BAY WILL PROBABLY
BECOME SUB-SCA LATER THIS EVENING BUT WE'LL LEAVE THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME (10PM) ALONE FOR NOW AND MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/PO
AVIATION...GUZZO/PO
MARINE...GUZZO/PO
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