213
FXUS61 KPHI 241731
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST.
THIS RIDGE GETS PUSHED BACK SOME AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA SENDS SPOKES OF ENERGY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME MORE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY
LATER THIS WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND THUS SHARPENS OR CLOSES
OFF THE TROUGH A DAY OR TWO LATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WHAT ALL THIS BOILS DOWN TO IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE START TO TURN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY MONDAY, WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY, AND THEN CONVECTION STARTING TO DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD BE ENHANCED IF THE TROUGH ALOFT CLOSES OFF. DEEPER MOISTURE
(DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S) ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITH EVENTUAL COOLING ALOFT AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE PRIOR DAYS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THEN ITS EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY, WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 7-12 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR KACY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT WITH SOME TIMES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...TIMES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 10-20 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3
FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE 2-3 FEET. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS INCLUDING A
LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 9 SECONDS. DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES ONCE
AGAIN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS. FOR THESE REASONS, WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES. FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS,
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/GORSE
MARINE...DESILVA/GORSE
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