591
FXUS61 KPHI 142256
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED WORDING OF KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRYING OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE BY
FRIDAY.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRYING OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE
BY FRIDAY.
THE RAIN HAS ENDED BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NW
WINDS ARE ALSO A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE STARTING TO
PULL AWAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE CONTROL. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANCHORS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST IT WILL GENERALLY BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MANY AREAS AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, INLAND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND DELMARVA. TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD
SEE SOME AREAS INLAND GETTING INTO THE MID 90S BUT CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC DETAILS BECOMES A BIT LOWER BY THIS TIME. THE HEAT LOOKS TO
BREAK BY THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF OVERALL HEAT IMPACTS, THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT SAID,
THIS PARTICULAR SETUP DOESN'T LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
BOTH VERY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THROUGH TUESDAY, MIXING SHOULD
KEEP DEW POINTS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH AND THEN BY THE TIME
THESE NUMBERS CREEP UP BY WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY HELP KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
OVERALL THIS STRETCH LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH, MAINLY ON
SUNDAY. DON'T HAVE MORE THAN 15-25% POPS IN THOUGH AS FORCING LOOKS
WEAK BUT WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET INTO RANGE OF THE
CAMS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, BY AROUND LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONT
IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC
IMPACTS OR HAZARDS. THE FRONT COULD LINGER NEARBY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. BKN CLOUDS EARLY THEN SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM/HIGH
CONFID.
FRIDAY....VFR WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR PREDOMINATING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET TODAY INCREASING TO AROUND 4 TO NEAR 5 FEET FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY (60 % CHANCE) LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
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