572
FXUS61 KPHI 190104
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
FOR THE COLD SNAP, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST STRETCH. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE MORE SEVERE ON MONDAY NIGHT, EVEN WITH LOWER AIR
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH LITTLE MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
2. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE 200-250 MILES EAST OF WALLOPS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NEW JERSEY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL GO AHEAD CANCEL AND
ALLOW TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US TONIGHT, USHERING IN AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMMENCES
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST. THE HEIGHT OF
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -15 TO -20
C, RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT,
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -15 IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, NEAR OR BELOW ZERO OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. WE ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED
SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, BUT
CANNOT RULE THEM OUT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WON'T
CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. WITH A STEADY WESTERLY BREEZE, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE LOW TEENS. AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS LIKELY WON'T GET ABOVE 0 FOR WIND CHILLS EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WE COULD SEE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS A RESULT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLDER, THE CALMER WINDS WILL MAKE
THE WIND CHILLS LESS SEVERE, THOUGH STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST AND BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. THESE VALUES WILL NOT
WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD
NONETHELESS.
WE BRIEFLY BREAK THE COLD SNAP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GET BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN TO COLDER
CONDITIONS BY NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD GET MORE
ACTIVE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. A
LOT OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS MORE SUPPRESSIVE WITH
THE STORM TRACK WHICH COULD RESULT IN IT STAYING MAINLY DRY BUT
CONTINUING QUITE COLD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS MOSTLY SNOW
WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT KPHL THRU 02Z. VSBYS IMPROVE FOLLOWED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER BY CIGS WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN MOST AREAS BY 04Z/05Z.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE AFTER SWITCHING TO W/WSW. MEDIUM CONFID
OVERALL.
MONDAY... VFR EXPECTED. MOSTLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER THE LATE MORNING. MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
MARINE
NW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 6 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES AS
WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. THIS INCLUDES COASTAL WATERS AS FAR
NORTH AS OFF THE COAST OF CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NJ. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WINDS RAMP
BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WIND
GUSTS OF 25- 30 KT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUB SCA LEVELS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
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