588
FXUS61 KPHI 252007
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCH UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLIER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
COAST. OUR WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE WET, BREEZY, AND CHILLY,
ESPECIALLY TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY, WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS MAY BE UNPLEASANT,
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND, IT IS GOOD TO
REMEMBER THAT THIS IS A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME WET SNOW TRIES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FOR THE POCONOS. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, AND SOME PATCHY FROST
MAY FORM IN THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND WEAK WINDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN APPROACHES
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER LOW ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS,
THEN TO IFR ESPECIALLY AT KABE AND KRDG. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VFR VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS, LOCALLY LIFR, ALONG WITH RAIN. VISIBILITIES
MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR. THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MORNING,
HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD THEN OCCUR. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...IFR, LOCALLY LIFR, CEILINGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUT
TO 20 NM AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AFTER 6 AM SUNDAY,
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET NJ SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND
DE, AND OUT TO 60 NM WILL HAVE A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT AS WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, ENDING AT 8 PM SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SCA FOR THE DELAWARE BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM AS WELL. THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
MANASQUAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 6 AM MONDAY AS
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE.
ANOTHER, SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WITHIN THE GALE
WARNING AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THAT AREA AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO SCA AND GALE CONDITIONS, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS IN RAIN AND FOG THIS
EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH NE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AT
5-7 FEET. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455-
481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...AKL
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