342
FXUS61 KPHI 271855
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED.
ALL GROUPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
2. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING
HEAT AND MOISTURE HAVE ARRIVED ALONG WITH A FEW UPPER SHORT
WAVES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DOWNPOURS AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS, THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THAT REASON.
THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS FOR DELAWARE TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DROP AND SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE...TUESDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEARLY ALL DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A
STEADY STREAM OF WARM, MOIST AIR PUMPING INTO THE AREA AND
KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE DESPITE CLOUD
COVER. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2" BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME
MODELS SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE A STALLED OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH COULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING COULD END UP BEING A BIGGER
CONCERN AND GREATER IMPACT THAN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM WPC SHOW MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT NORTHERN NJ HAS A MODERATE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA INCLUDING DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND METRO PHILADELPHIA
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHILE AREAS TO THE
NORTH ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAST ITS EFFECTS
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON, AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NJ AND PA
ZONES, BUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER GIVEN
LOWER INSTABILITY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TOO.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... OVERALL VFR, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS AROUND
WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR IF THE RAINS/TSTMS ARRIVE ACROSS A
TERMINAL. LOW CONFID FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINS THIS EVENING. LIGHT W/SW
WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS
ANS TSTMS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%)
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AN 8 SECOND PERIOD AND BREAKING WAVES 2
FEET OR LESS ALONG WITH SHORE PARALLEL WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WILL
RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH EITHER A SHORE PARALLEL OR ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT TO A SOUTHERLY WIND. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS AND INCREASING
BREAKING WAVES TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AS WELL AS THE COMING FULL
MOON WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RIP CURRENT THREAT. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/OHARA/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/OHARA
MARINE...AKL/OHARA
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