509
FXUS61 KPHI 170006
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
706 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ALL WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 45 MP. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 25 TO 35 MPH BUT AFTER THAT, GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
LEAST 20 MPH FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY,
A COUPLE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES (AFR NW) CONTINUE. THESE WILL
REMAIN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NW
AREAS. WINDS CHILLS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL LIKE THE 20S
(TEENS N/W).
ON MONDAY, OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR TO BE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS ON SUNDAY, BUT
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTH MOST COUNTIES TO THE MID/UPPER
40S FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS WITH A MAINLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AS WE ARE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WHICH ALSO LEADS TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
RELAXES MORE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE, LOWS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY
NIGHT AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY. FOR
WINDS, GUSTS UPWARD OF 20-30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT TREND LOWER INTO
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS.
WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE CLOUDS FILTERING IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
PRETTY MINIMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL BEING IN THE POCONOS. DUE TO THE LIMITED POTENTIAL, POPS
WERE KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WE SEE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STARTS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
TRACK BEING MORE SOUTHERLY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN IS IN
DELMARVA, PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
AS YOU GET CLOSER TO I-78 AND NORTH, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
LESSENS TO 20-40%. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP MAKING IT AS
FAR AS I-80 OR EVEN NORTH OF THIS AREA WHERE POPS ARE 20-30%. ONE
KEY NOTE IS THAT IF PRECIP DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH, SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. ANY PRECIP
DOES LOOK TO END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE TREND DRIER THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE DO HAVE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A PIECE OF
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL, NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THAT TIMEFRAME BUT WE DO STAY MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS BEING
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT, WE DO TREND WARMER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. OVERALL DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN WITH THIS
COLD FRONT DUE TO TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT THIS FRONT IS ATTACHED TO. RIGHT NOW, POPS ARE AT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SCT/BKN050-080 POSSIBLE FROM
THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON WEST. WINDS 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z-06Z, WANING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10-15 KT AND
GUSTS 20-25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER STRATOCUMULUS
LAYER BETWEEN FL050-080. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH
10-20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 30 KT, THOUGH NOT AS HIGH
AS SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDING NOT LONG AFTER 00Z.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EVENTUALLY SETTLING TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO SOME
RAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING GALE FLAGS ACROSS THE WATERS.
GUSTS MAY DECEASE BELOW GALES FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE GALE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO RUN THE GALES INTO
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS. FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING SW WIND TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TOMORROW, WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 25-35 MPH AND UP TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RHS WILL BE AROUND
30-35%. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SAW A WETTING
RAIN (RAINFALL >= 0.10") SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO CONCERNS ARE
MORE LIMITED THERE. WILL COORDINATE AND COLLABORATE WITH FIRE
WEATHER PARTNERS TO SEE IF ANY STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/OHARA
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GORSE/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...HOEFLICH
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