128
FXUS61 KPHI 151745
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
GALE WATCH UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR OCEAN
WATERS.
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS, STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
2. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS, STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MID LEVEL RIDGING TODAY WILL GIVE WAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL ASSOCIATED TROUGH RAPIDLY TURNS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND LEADS TO A STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY IN QUEBEC AND WILL USHER IN A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL USHER IN BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSPORT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH THE RIGHT REAR LOCATED
RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE, AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS SHOULD PLAY A STRONG ENOUGH ROLE IN
OVERCOMING THAT INSTABILITY. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOW SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT TO SEE STP VALUES GREATER THAN 0.5-1 DURING A
BRIEF WINDOW MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES THE
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SOMETHING TO NOTE, IS THAT IF THE DEWPOINTS SURGE HIGHER THAN
INITIALLY FORECAST, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT, AND
THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS WIND, HOWEVER THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOS IS INCREASING. SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF QLCS TYPE TORNADOES AND THESE ARE OFTEN THE
HARDEST TYPE OF TORNADO TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR AS THEY CAN BE
VERY ARE BRIEF IN NATURE.
FINALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING AT LEAST 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, LOCALLY
UP TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL HELP USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND US 13 JUST FOR THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
WINDS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND STRONG WIND THREAT, THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO BE 1.1-1.4" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR EARLY MARCH. MMEFS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MODEST RISES IN
RIVERS SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL HYDRO
CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING MONDAY NIGHT,
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT HOWEVER WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS
THAT AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES, IT WILL ALSO BE USHERING IN QUITE
DRY AIR AND SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS, ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. A GUSTY WESTERLY
WIND WILL ALSO ADD A CHILL FACTOR WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND 20S
AND 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER
LESS WIND IS FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. E/SE WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. HIGH
CONFID.
TONIGHT...LOWERING CIGS THEN VSBYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.
VFR EARLY THEN IFR DEVELOPING AT MOST TAF SITES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LLWS WITH S/SE WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS AT 020. A
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT
KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. MEDIUM CONFID.
MONDAY...INTERVALS OF IFR TO LIFR WITH SHOWERS, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LLWS FROM S AT 50-55 KTS AT 020. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT OUT OF THE
MORNING PERIOD FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH POTENTIAL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATER AT NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH
30-35 KTS WITH GUSTS 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE, NOT INCLUSIVE OF
STRONGER GUST POTENTIAL IN STORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA REST OF THE DAY. BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SEAS
OF 5-7 FEET TONIGHT, WITH SCA IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN WATERS.
CONTINUED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BRING GALE
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING, WITH
GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT. GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE,
MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING. WINDS START TO
DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS MAY RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY,
BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THURSDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-016>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/FITZSIMMONS/MJL/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...DEAL/FITZSIMMONS/MJL/RCM
MARINE...DEAL/FITZSIMMONS/MJL/RCM
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