898
FXUS61 KPHI 280239
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1039 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST SLIDES BY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND PASSES EITHER JUST OVER THE REGION OR OFF
TO THE WEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MOVING IN LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
FOR TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO
BETTER ORGANIZE ITSELF NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHICH
WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE WINDS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST,
AND ALSO OVER OUR MARINE WATERS. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A LOW
STRATUS DECK THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS OVER COASTAL PLAIN ZONES BEING A BIT WARMER THAN
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FARTHER
INLAND, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR, AND WINDS MOSTLY CALM.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
OVER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. PARTS OF THE AREA ARE ONCE AGAIN
UNDER A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN CONTROL TUESDAY, BUT A
DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, LEADING TO
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTIER NORTHEAST WINDS.
WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 15-20 MPH INLAND WITH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST REACHING 20-30 MPH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT A DRY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT, BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (60%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (25-40%) FURTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A TAD WARMER THANKS TO PERSISTENT WINDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE,
ONLY ALLOWING LOWS AT NIGHT TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST WILL LINGER AS A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER DELMARVA AND WITHIN THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN
WITH MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR STAYING DRY BUT
CLOUDY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US PHASES WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NC/VA COAST MERGING WITH A STRONGER INCOMING SURFACE LOW. THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PHASE OVER VIRGINIA AND LIFT NORTHWARD EITHER RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA OR JUST TO THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH, A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. STILL NOT WITHIN THE FULL QPF PERIOD JUST YET, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL OVER A 6
TO 12 HOUR PERIOD, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THOUGH WITH A SURFACE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.
IF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WOULD END UP A BIT FURTHER WEST LIKE
THE GFS SUGGESTS, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NON-ZERO. SOME OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND WITH A STRONG WIND-
FIELD NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR STRONG
GUSTS TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE IN ANY CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A ROTATING UPDRAFT AS WELL. THE FURTHER
WEST TRACK WOULD BE A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, AND
CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY AND FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL DAYTIME FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A BRISK COLD-AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD ON
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE
IN, A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A BLUSTERY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THINGS SETTLE DOWN A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY.
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE, LOW TEMPERATURE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD
RESULT IN SOME FROST. TOO EARLY TO SAY DEFINITIVELY THOUGH.
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAK SYSTEM COMING IN, WHICH COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR KMIV/KACY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...REMAINING VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INLAND, UP TO 25 KTS FOR KMIV/KACY. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINS TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE I-95 TERMINALS BY THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMIV/KACY WITH
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
MIV/ACY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR MIV AND ACY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WITH LOW
CLOUDS, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND SLIGHT CHANCE (15%)
OF THUNDER. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 20-25 KT
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KT ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RAMP UP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP TO 20-25 KTS.
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE FORECASTED. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FEET
TUESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE
OUT GALE FORCE WINDS BUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD HAVE LOWER WINDS WITH A
LULL IN GALES. NE WINDS 25-30 KT AND SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GALES EXPECTED AS WINDS RAMP UP
TO AROUND 35-40 KT OUT OF THE SE. DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GALES EXPECTED AGAIN WITH WESTERLY
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KT
AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, AND DELAWARE BAY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AS LATE AS FRIDAY.
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20-30 KTS WILL STRENGTHEN BEGINNING
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS IS FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.
SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STARTING
WITH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR COASTAL DELAWARE AND
CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF DELAWARE BAY AND NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
JERSEY THROUGH OCEAN COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
FOR THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM, COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE MUCH
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT AT LEAST WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE THURSDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOOD IMPACTS. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING
MAY ALSO EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND EASTERN
SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL. THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF
ANY POTENTIAL MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WHICH REMAINS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES AND INFORMATION REGARDING THIS LONG DURATION
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
015>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MJL
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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