733
FXUS61 KPHI 240931
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL
LAST AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS EARLY AS
VERY LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG BUT THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
TERRIBLY STRONG AND COULD ALSO BE CENTERED MORE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY THOUGH AND THINGS COULD CHANGE.
AT THIS POINT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS IS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY KEEPING AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND ON
THE UNSETTLED SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAWN. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE COMING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2-3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING, TURNING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE
1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON THURSDAY, SIMILAR SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10-15 MPH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM/STAARMANN
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