365
FXUS61 KPHI 060506
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
3. MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH INTO
MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. IT'LL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS INTO SATURDAY.
VERY WARN BUT RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG SUN ANGLE CONTRIBUTE
TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL WARMING. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND BECOME
MORE MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
CONTINUED WARM WITH SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH
DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
IN THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BREAKS WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OUT TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA. DAYTIME SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BUT SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.
THE LATEST SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (AS OF 2PM FRIDAY) SHOWS
THAT MOST AREAS NORTH/WEST OF I-95 AND ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR HAVE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. AREAS JUST TO THE
S/E OF THE SLIGHT RISK (INCLUDING SOUTH NJ AND NORTHERN DE)
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LASTLY, OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AREAS HAVE JUST A GENERAL RISK FOR TSTMS. FOR SEVERE AREAS,
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
FOR THE NW AREAS AND NEAR/AFTER SUNSET FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
AND AREAS S/E OF THAT.
ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, LIMITING THE SEVERE
RISK FOR AREAS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT PALTRY QPF AMOUNTS. THIS IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THAT
THIS IS THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND ALL FOUR STATES IN OUR CWA HAVE EITHER A
DROUGHT WATCH OR DROUGHT WARNING. CURRENT QPF FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IT ISN'T
MUCH BUT ITS AT LEAST SOMETHING. SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT ONCE A SECONDARY FRONT PASSES LATER SUNDAY. IT SHOULD MAINLY
BE DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND THOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S TO START
NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THAT
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE, WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP. THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN THING TO WATCH WITH
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL. DETAILS WILL COME INTO
FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AND PUSH
INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS AT KRDG/KABE
FROM 22Z-02Z BUT KEPT OUT THUNDER FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TAFS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS, IF THEY MAKE IT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WOULD
LIKELY BE AFTER 00Z. IT IS EVEN MORE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT TO KACY/KMIV, BUT HAVE ADDED A VCSH
CATEGORY AFTER 03Z. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IF A THUNDERSTORM
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS. HAVE AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER
KABE/KRDG BETWEEN 22Z-02Z, A 20-30% OVER KPHL/KILG/KTTN/KPNE
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z, AND AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE OVER KACY/KMIV.
GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITIES OUTSIDE OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AT THE I-95 AND SOUTH JERSEY
TERMINALS BUT WILL LEAVE OPEN THE CHANCE TO ADD IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY... VFR PROBABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT
THEN, BUILDING CLOSER TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A SCA FLAG WAS RAISED AS WINDS WILL INCREASE
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD
CLOSER TO 5FT. FAIR WEATHER INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT REMAINING
JUST BELOW FOR THE DE AND OFF SRN NJ WATERS. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON SUNDAY, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVES
WILL BE 2-3 FEET. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL AROUND 7-8 SECONDS. GIVEN THE INCREASED SWELL, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE. THERE IS A LOW
RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES WHERE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
INCREASED SWELL WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH INFLUENCE.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR MUCH
OF THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE LOW 60S FOR DELAWARE BEACHES. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/JOHNSON/MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MJL/OHARA
MARINE...COOPER/OHARA
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