166
FXUS61 KPHI 051704
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
104 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS REFRESHED BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN DRY BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
2. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A MODEST NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETTING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT A CLEARING TREND IN SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS 10-15 GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT WILL BE BY FAR THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS BY DAWN TUESDAY.
COASTAL AREAS AND THE PHILLY URBAN CORE WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO
50 DEGREES, AND AREAS NORTH OF I-78 WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN SOME SPOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NW NJ AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
SOMEWHAT LOW GIVE THE GRADIENT WIND THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST NOTABLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT NEED ANY FROST
HEADLINES JUST YET. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TUESDAY NIGHT IS
NOT THE MOST IDEAL. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM, WINDS
NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE MODEST AND BEGINNING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE AIR THAT IS CLOSER TO SATURATION ALOFT INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH REBOUNDING DEWPOINTS SHOULD WORK TO
SUPPRESS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.NEVERTHELESS, THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD LOCALLY DROP INTO
THE MID 30S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY, AIRMASS MODIFICATION
WILL COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY, AND LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MVFR CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED TO VFR THOUGH A FEW SITES
STILL HAVE A BKN025/BKN030 CEILING. THIS SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR WITH ALL SITES RETURNING BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND
10-15 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT, DIMINISHING BETWEEN
22Z-00Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
NW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING THE ADVISORY EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES. EXPECT SEAS MAINLY 3
TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 3 FEET FOR
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
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