331
FXUS61 KPHI 051837
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
237 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING; LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING; LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.75-2.0+
INCHES, ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH OR MORE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WANE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS, PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
WHO'S CRITERIA IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-104 DEGREES. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NEW CASTLE DELWARE.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 10 AM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, WITH
A FEW INSTANCES OF IFR WHEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS A TAF SITE. PHL, PNE, AND TTN ARE THE MOST LIKELY
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. ONCE SHOWERS END, VFR CONDITION SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...MANY AREAS MAY START OUT AS VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR ABE AND RDG. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO DAY, BEFORE AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH. BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 1-3 FEET ARE FORECAST WITH A MEDIUM
PERIOD SWELL. GIVEN THE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE
JERSEY SHORE, MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LOWER
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES WITH A MORE PARALLEL WIND THEREFORE WENT
WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH.
DESPITE THE INCREASING WIND AND IT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AND THE BREAKING WAVES FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LOWER, A
LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY ARRIVE. OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE,
AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DEAL/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DEAL/ROBERTSON
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