856
FXUS61 KPHI 021757
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL (SUMMERLIKE) TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
2. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WELL ABOVE NORMAL (SUMMERLIKE) TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WILL A VERY MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS
HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH LOW/MID 80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-DAY.
THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OVER
DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THEN SPREAD EAST TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH NJ, WE'LL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL, QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH BUT
A FEW AREAS CLOSER TO 2/10THS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WITH SEASONABLE, BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AFTER THAT, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THAT STALLED FRONT AND PASSES
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FCST HAS LOW-END LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
THE 50%-60% CHANCE RIBBON RUNS ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND UP
INTO NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. THESE ARE PERHAPS 0-5%
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST QPF TOTALS
ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. CURRENT TOTALS ARE A
HALF-INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND 0.1 TO 0.2 FOR THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ARE ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH IS
UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE MID 30S NORTH OF I-78, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PREVAILING VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY AND
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW AND SWEEP SE ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY INTO HIGH END MVFR
TERRITORY, THUS ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF THUNDER, BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TAF MENTION. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, WILL SHIFT
ABRUPTLY NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AND REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS. FROPA
TIMING IS MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING CONDITIONS, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT EACH TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING ANY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH FROPA. SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF PHL. THESE ARE UNLIKELY
TO CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS, THOUGH SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MIV/ACY. NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS LINGERING AT MIV/ACY
THROUGH 18Z OR SO. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND THEN MORE EASTERLY AFTER 18Z NEAR 5-10
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR BUT PATCHY RURAL FOG POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE S/E. FREQUENT
SHOWERS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. FOR N/W AREAS MORE VFR CIGS WITH
SOME MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
TODAY/TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
SHIFTING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY... CONTINUED SUB-SCA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FOR SOUTHERN NJ/DELAWARE
AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. NORTH WINDS BECOMING 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS
AT TIMES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS MUCH OF THE TIME, SOME 4-5 FT SEAS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STAARMANN/WFO PHI
AVIATION...STAARMANN/WFO PHI
MARINE...AKL/WFO PHI
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