404
FXUS61 KPHI 291751
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OCEAN ZONES
OFF THE NJ AND DE COAST AND ALSO EXTENDED TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CONTINUING BREEZY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
2. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUING BREEZY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE IN THE RETURN FLOW. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY, THEY ARE
GETTING DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WHERE THEY SHOULD
STAY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR
GETTING MIXED DOWN FROM ALOFT. WE'LL ALSO HAVE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH. RECENT RAINFALL AND A
SHORT PERIOD WITH A COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS ARE
THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR TODAY'S THREAT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, WE DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER JUST FOR OUR MD EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL
BE DIMINISHING AND RH VALUES WILL BE INCREASING.
CONTINUING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE IN WITH
TIME SO NO FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID-
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATION OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND NEAR THE COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH,
WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE MEANINGFUL
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN, THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. STRONG TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND PERHAPS LIFT BACK NORTH
A BIT, REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY, AS WELL AS A TRICKY TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 70S SOUTH OF
IT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. AS OF NOW, IT
APPEARS THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST
ROUGHLY THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO, THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING EARLY AROUND 23Z TO 5-10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SW. LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A BRISK LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 PM FOR ALL OF
OUR OCEAN ZONES AS SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND THEN COME BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND BEYOND. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY LATER MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH
A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS
3-6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY, PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT AT 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 KT AND SEAS 4-8 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING EASTERLY AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
4-6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page