860
FXUS61 KPHI 291104
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
704 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE NOR'EASTER DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY.
2. COASTAL FLOODING THREAT LOWERED IN MANY AREAS BUT STILL A CONCERN
ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
3. UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NOR'EASTER DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN US.
WINDS HAVE NOW WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS, NOW ONLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS OUT OF THE NW. STILL SOME
SPOTTY SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING A WALL-TO-WALL SUNNY
DAY JUST YET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COASTAL FLOODING THREAT LOWERED IN MANY AREAS BUT
STILL A CONCERN ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
OVERALL, TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDES IS EXPECTED TO
BE SPOTTY MINOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MINOR FLOODING OF BACK BAYS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OCEAN COUNTY NJ
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW, WATER LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE FROM HERE. HOWEVER, MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT WEAKENS, THE
SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR MANY AREAS AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY, THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PREVAILING VFR BY MID MORNING WITH NW WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS INCREASE, POSSIBLE IFR, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED. SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, SEAS 2-3 FEET
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 MPH WILL
BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A LINGERING 2 FOOT EASTERLY SWELL
AROUND 7 TO 9 SECONDS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH WILL BECOME SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A LINGERING 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY
SWELL AROUND 8 TO 10 SECONDS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
THE SURF SEASON WILL CONCLUDE FOR THE YEAR ON SEPTEMBER 30TH. NO
FURTHER RIP CURRENT FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND SEPTEMBER
30TH UNTIL 2027.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
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