837
FXUS61 KPHI 080541
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SLIDES
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY, THEN WILL BE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOW HUMIDITY. CLOUDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, AND WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY AS THAT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OR SO AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION AS AN UPPER-LOW TRAVERSES PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC. ON THURSDAY, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH. POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ARE CURRENTLY 20-40% AND CONFINED TO THE LEHIGH
VALLEY, POCONOS, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN NJ.
ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY IT.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
FEATURES MODEST DESTABILIZATION AT BEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG TO 1000 J/KG. DISCREPANCIES DO
REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. A SLOWER FRONT PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION
THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS FAIRLY LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS LOOK LIMITED BY THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND STORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO
SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A
FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS IT COULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, BEGINNING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERN MOST TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO PART
OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS 4-6 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS
IN LENGTH. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL SHORE
POINTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVES OF 1-2 FEET IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 FEET IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS IN LENGTH.
FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED FOR A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL SHORE POINTS. IF WINDS TREND IN A
MORE SHORE-NORMAL DIRECTION, AT LEAST SOME SHORE POINTS COULD
WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
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