795
FXUS61 KPHI 140659
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
2...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CURRENTLY AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN, RESULTING IN A
STRETCH OF NICE DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S EXPECTED IN THE
POCONOS AND NEW JERSEY. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS STRETCH
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT COMES IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
COVERAGE THOUGH AND NOW THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET FOR MOST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY THOUGH,
RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. STILL A BIT EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS ON
WHAT, IF ANY, IMPACTS WOULD BE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND
5-10 KT ONCE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT. GUSTS DIMINISH BETWEEN 20Z-00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE (15-20%) AT TIMES.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY, AROUND 10
TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 2
FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL REMAIN WITH MIXED PERIODS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
TUESDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. AN UNDERLYING 2 TO 3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL AROUND 5 TO 6 SECONDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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