038
FXUS61 KPHI 232131
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INLAND CAPE MAY
AND COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES PERSIST DUE TO POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOSEPHINE WELL OFF THE COAST, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING FOR BACK BAY AREAS IN OCEAN COUNTY,
NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.
2. FROST AND FREEZE IMPACTS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES PERSIST DUE TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE WELL OFF THE COAST, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING FOR BACK BAY AREAS
IN OCEAN COUNTY, NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE REGION
AS IT'S NOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS PERSIST, MAINLY IN THE BACK BAY AREAS OF OCEAN COUNTY,
NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DELAWARE. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AREAS OF THESE COUNTIES AS WELL AS
OUR OTHER COUNTIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DELWARE BAY, ANY
TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE.
THE TREND IS FOR WATER LEVELS TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
HOWEVER IT'S POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING FOR COULD EVEN LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BACK BAYS. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE WILL
EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FROST AND FREEZE IMPACTS LIKELY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
A FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9AM SATURDAY WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST, A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9AM
SATURDAY FOR ALL OTHER ZONES, EXCLUDING SUSSEX COUNTY IN
DELAWARE AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS IN NEW JERSEY.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A CHILLY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH, AND AS THE HIGH ITSELF SETTLES MORE OVERHEAD, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP) WITH
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FROST AND FREEZE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
LIGHT UPPER LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY LIGHT CLOUD COVERAGE WOULD BE THE
ONLY LIMITING REAGENT TO THE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
COULD SLOW COOLING DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES AT BEST, BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SLAM THE BRAKES HARD ON THE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP OVERNIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WHEREVER THE GROWING
SEASON CONTINUES.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15
KT POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR SKC. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE NEARSHORE WATERS AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE WINDS AROUND 15
KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING THEM TO NE WINDS AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ060-061-101-103-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ012>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ020-
026.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ008>010.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/MJL/RCM/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
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