326
FXUS61 KPHI 181001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
601 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN COOLER AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY, WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE WITH ANY FOG/DRIZZLE ALSO
COMING TO AN END BY MID MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INLAND
GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST TO NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO
8 MPH FOR MOST AREAS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TRANQUIL WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SPOTS SUCH AS INTERIOR, NW NJ AND NE
PA WITH LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS OVER DELMARVA AND THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL BENIGN AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTHEAST, THEN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL BE A RATHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. A SEA BREEZE
WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 60S, SO IT WON'T BE TOO HUMID FEELING. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTHWEST OF I-95 TO AROUND
60 DEGREES FROM I-95 AND SOUTHEAST. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE IMPINGING MARINE LAYER. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-80 TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND
RETREAT NORTHEAST AS WELL.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THANKS
TO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE SHOWERS IN DELMARVA NEAR THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAINLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR MONDAY THEN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE. RDG/ABE SHOULD GO
VFR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH REMAINING SITES SEEING VFR BY LATE
MORNING AROUND THE I-95 TAF SITES BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MIV AND ACY. WINDS GENERALLY NW AROUND 5 KNOTS
EXCEPT BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT ACY DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH SW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS ANY LEFT OVER DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO WIND DOWN THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.
EXPECT NW SHIFTING TO SW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH SW/W WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO
NEAR 3- 5 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND SCATTERED MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BECOME EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. BREAKING WAVES OF 2-3 FEET
ALONG WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS ARE FORECAST.
SINCE THE SWELL COMPONENT IS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST
DESPITE LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS AND DECREASING WIND, MAINTAINED A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR
ALL BEACHES.
FOR FRIDAY, A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL AROUND 8
SECONDS. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE LOWER, AND THEREFORE WENT WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BARNEGAT BAY, MANAHAWKIN BAY, REHOBOTH BAY, INDIAN RIVER BAY,
AND THE LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY EXPERIENCED SOME AREAS OF MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING LAST EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDES TODAY, HOWEVER THE EXTENT OF
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN ADVISORY. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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