139
FXUS61 KPHI 121845
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMES ADJUSTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
2. POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30-40% WILL
RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD.
MOISTURE DOES SNEAK BACK IN ON MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE HIGHLY CONCERNING FOR FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. THAT
SAID, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 35-50%
RANGE, NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL GRAZE THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL,
BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER NORTH
AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY, CONTINUED
WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH
WARM AIR AT SURFACE LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS
15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK. AS OF NOW, EXPECTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
REGARDING POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES).
IF TEMPERATURES TOUCH 90F, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF
THE YEAR. AS IS TYPICAL IN SPRING THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE VERY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE AFTER THIS WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON NORTH
OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR, NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR. WINDS S-SE AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KTS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 05Z WITH WINDS AROUND 40-45 KTS
DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT KRDG/KABE (25-
35%) IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING AT
KRDG/KABE, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE DELAWARE BAY, BUT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY, THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME
RECORDS BROKEN DEPENDING ON THE SITE. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 14TH THROUGH APRIL
16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 88/2023
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 86/1945
AC MARINA (55N) 90/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 87/1977
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 84/2023
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 91/1941
READING (RDG) 90/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 89/1941
WILMINGTON (ILG) 87/1941
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2014
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 63/2023
AC MARINA (55N) 60/2023
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2014
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2014
READING (RDG) 64/2014
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2014
WILMINGTON (ILG) 60/2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MJL
AVIATION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MJL
MARINE...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MJL
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