521
FXUS61 KPHI 310711
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
211 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND AN
EXPANDING HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US THROUGH MID-
WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY, AND THE BASE OF THAT TROUGH LIES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW,
MOSTLY OVER DELMARVA, THE DELAWARE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH,
IF ANY, ACCUMULATING SNOW. ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
A CLOSED H5 LOW WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF QUEBEC TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THAT
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OF THE REGION AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THAT LOW, MAINLY ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN POCONOS, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, THOUGH SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DOWN THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AGAIN, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
THOUGH AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS TUESDAY, WEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX AND HEIGHT RISES
WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TEMPORARILY TAKES SHAPE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH AREAWIDE,
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND LOW 30S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST. SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
START MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. WINDS MAY
REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78 AND IN THE MID- UPPER TEENS
SOUTH.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN NJ,
LOW- MID 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PA AND MOST OF NJ,
AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHERN
NJ. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78 AND
LOW-MID 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE BENIGN, WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE, WITH A SHORTWAVE AXIS SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BUT REMAINING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE TREND SOUTHWARD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE WEEKEND NOW LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
DRY AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MODESTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SNOW OR A
RAIN SNOW MIX APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPES AT THIS
POINT, BUT AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR LIGHT. SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, THOUGH IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY PATTERN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR WITH 5000 FT CIGS. SOME LIGHT SHSN OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING RESTRICTIONS SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. CIGS 5000-8000 FT. W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20
TO 25 KT GUSTS.
TONIGHT...VFR INITIALLY. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHSN, ESPECIALLY
AT KRDG/KABE. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUDING IN THE TAF. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS, AND
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR
THE REST OF TODAY.
TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS, AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. A NEW SCA
WILL BE NEEDED STARTING TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. THERE IS
AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER INTO LATE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SEAS 3-5
FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
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