495
FXUS61 KPHI 050656
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN.
2. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TIDE, MAINLY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE BEACHES, AND DELAWARE
BAY COMMUNITIES.
3. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NEW JERSEY
COASTAL PLAIN.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF SOME SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LINGERING TO OUR EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS WILL STILL BE SENDING SPOKES OF ENERGY
AROUND IT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FOR THIS REASON, CANT'
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY OVER
DELMARVA. HOWEVER EVEN HERE POPS ARE ONLY 20% OR LESS SO MOST AREAS
SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING. OTHERWISE, FOLLOWING SOME EARLY MORNING
STRATUS GENERALLY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S NORTH. IT WILL ALSO
BE NOTABLY LESS HUMID AND MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO OUR RECENT
WEATHER.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, ANOTHER SPOKE OF
ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BRING A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN NOT QUITE AS IDEAL CONDITIONS AS
EARLIER FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY ONLY IN THE MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WATER PILING UP OVER CONSECUTIVE TIDE CYCLES, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FROM
BARNEGAT BAY ON SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND FOR
AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE SPOTS
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE 12 HOURS WITH THE
FORECAST.
WITHIN THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, NORTHERN NJ COAST, AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY, TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO SPOTTY MINOR OR NO FLOODING
AT ALL. TIDE LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE GETTING INTO NEXT WEEK AS FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WELCOMING THE
RETURN OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE IN
CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA. HOWEVER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT COULD
END UP BEING LIMITED SO AT THIS POINT POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 30
PERCENT OR LESS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GET GUSTY ON SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 2-4
FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE LESS THAN 2 FEET. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH. THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS INTO THE COAST,
WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE 2-3 FEET. OPTED TO GO WITH A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, HOWEVER
IF THE BREAKING WAVES INCREASE SOME MORE THEN THE RISK COULD
INCREASE TO MODERATE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/OHARA
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