338
FXUS61 KPHI 302357
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE DELAWARE BAY HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
2. A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
IN GENERAL, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL BE
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER, HOWEVER, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS DROPPING
TO 25% OR LESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CONSENSUS NOW HAS TUESDAY
AS THE MARGINALLY BETTER DAY FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT MAY BRING ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WEDGING
IN FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY AS WELL, MAKING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OR AT LEAST PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW.
REGARDLESS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW MAY DRIFT NEAR THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, AN UPPER- LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST AS
IT PULLS AWAY.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF DISCREPANCY ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE
AS TO HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL GET DUE IN PART TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FEWER IMPACTS. A SLOWER MOVING OR EVEN STALLED COASTAL LOW COULD
RESULT IN BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT COULD. THE LATEST TREND HAS
NOW BEEN FAVORING THE SLOWER MOVING CUT-OFF LOW, AT LEAST WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/AIGFS/ECMWF/AIFS. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE KEEPS
IT MOSTLY DRY, HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PREVAILING
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THERE DOES, HOWEVER, REMAIN A LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THE MOMENT, NBM
CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO THE 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS COASTAL LOW PROGRESS SLOWER AND REMAIN
NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RESULTANT BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. A FEW CLOUDS EARLY, OTHERWISE SKC. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. A FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE DELAWARE BAY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO FENWICK ISLAND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
6 PM SUNDAY.
WHILE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MARINE WATERS, SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. SEAS UP TO 4-7 FEET
WILL CONTINUE BEFORE GRADUALLY ABATING LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT BEFORE INCREASING UP
TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS, FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS 3-5 FEET GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON SUNDAY, A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS AND BREAKING
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS
WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO 9 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3
FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/MJL/MPS
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