553
FXUS61 KPHI 051836
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS. MINOR CHANGES FOR LONG
RANGE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY.
2. A FEW SYSTEMS BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
A BREEZY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. MEANWHILE, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DURING PEAK HEATING WILL BE AROUND 25%-35% FOR MANY AREAS.
FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND A
GUSTY BREEZE, ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN
MONDAY. FULL GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED IN MUCH OF OUR AREA HOWEVER
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH OUR STATE FIRE PARTNERS WE'VE ISSUED
AN SPS EARLIER FOR FIRE WEATHER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
(EXCLUDING COASTAL STRIP).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SYSTEMS BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE
BULK OF THE RAIN COMES THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THEN PREVIOUS FCSTS. THE FRONT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFT
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE POPS
ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WILL TAIL OFF SLOWER AND REMAIN
IN THE CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS LOWER POPS FOR THE N/W
AREAS FROM WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLIER. OVERALL, QPF IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3/4 INCH FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE STILL ATTEMPTED TO BRING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE REGION, THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL SEE LOW
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED TO ZERO SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL,
THIS WILL BE MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE NOTHING MORE
THAN A POTENTIAL WEEKEND SPOILER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. POPS RANGE FROM THE 50%-60% RANGE FOR THE POCONOS
DOWN TO 35 TO 40% FOR SOUTH DELAWARE AND SE NEW JERSEY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
REST OF TODAY... VFR. FEW CLOUDS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 KTS. HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW-END LLWS POSSIBLE KABE/KRDG
AND CLOSE TO THE SHORE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY... VFR EARLY THEN LOWERING CIGS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE
WEST TO EAST. LOW-END MVFR PROBABLE BUT IFR POSSIBLE 14Z/16Z N/W
AND 18Z/20Z S/E. MEDIUM CONFID OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
A SECOND ROUND ON THURSDAY DAYTIME S/E. KRDG/KABE MAY NOT SEE
ANY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THINGS HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
TREND FOR PRECIP BEING FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR
FOR THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT .
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (30-50%) WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN.
SUNDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WENT UP EARLIER AND
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KTS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
REACHING 4 TO 7 FT. FAIR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ACROSS DELAWARE BAY, WINDS CONTINUE A BIT BELOW SCA LEVELS PRESENTLY,
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH 25 KTS AND A MODERATE CHOP BY THE EVENING.
THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2AM. FAIR TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SHOWERS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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