809
FXUS61 KPHI 282337
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEFORE
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PULLS FARTHER AWAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH TIME SO WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING, THE WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BY THIS TIME GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO FROM THE WNW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD SETTING UP PRETTY
MUCH RIGHT OVER OUR AREA BY LATE DAY. AS A RESULT, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
40S) THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS AT AROUND 5-10 MPH SO THE WIND
CHILL WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT OF A FACTOR COMPARED TO TODAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
MID- LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE NIGHT, IT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CHILLY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND BEGINNING TO INCREASE,
TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-95,
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, WITH ALL SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS. REGARDING
RAINFALL, AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 0.25", WITH ISOLATED
AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 30S FOR THE POCONOS, THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OUR EASTERN PA COUNTIES AND MUCH OF NJ, AND
THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. MONDAY WILL BE DRY
BUT CHILLY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. FOR THE
POCONOS, TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, AND WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE LOW
WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND BEGIN DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT
NOW, HAVE CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
EASTERN PA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN THE 70-80% REALM
AREAWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ENTIRE REGION PRECIPITATION-
FREE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL: MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID, EVEN SUBTLE SHIFTS
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS GIVEN IT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA,
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOME. IN
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. THIS WILL TEND TO
FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE AFFECTING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES FOR MANY. INITIALLY, SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD
BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH ALL SNOW
FAVORED NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, AND ALL RAIN FAVORED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF I-95. THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, THE RAIN SNOW LINE
WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTHWEST. AT THE PEAK OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS AND
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN NJ, A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE FAVORED NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, AND ALL RAIN
ELSEWHERE. IT IS TOO SOON TO GET OVERLY SPECIFIC WITH AMOUNTS,
BUT DESI PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 50% OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 1" FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POINTS
NORTHWEST, AND AROUND 70% FOR THE POCONOS. A COLD, SOAKING
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD VARY
WIDELY ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST, THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF
NJ AND THE DELMARVA, BUT POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW 50S FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS MOST FELT.
AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT FOR
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE SLIM.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC EXPECTED WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
GUSTY W-NW WINDS EARLY AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT, DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR/SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-MVFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN OR SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS, AND
IN RAIN ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ENDS AT 2 AM FOR
ALL WATERS. GENERALLY EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS.
FOLLOWING THE END OF THE GALES OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAWN, WHERE A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE SUB-SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. SOUTH WIND
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE. SEAS 1-3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT, WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4-6
FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED WITH WIND BELOW
25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH EAST
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KT AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5-7 FEET, ALSO DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
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