143
FXUS61 KPHI 010820
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2.
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND BLACK ICE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
2. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SOME
WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.
3. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
4. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MELTING SNOWPACK,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, MAY RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING AS SNOWPACK
CONTINUES TO LESSEN AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. WITH CONTINUED MELTING, ANY AREAS THAT FALL BELOW
FREEZING MAY OBSERVE SPOTTY AREAS OF BLACK ICE TOO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BRING SOME WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE DELMARVA AROUND DAYBREAK. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AND I-195 IN NJ. AT
THE ONSET, THERE IS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING AND A WARM NOSE
ALOFT LINGERS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY. AS COLDER AIR
SLOWLY INFILTRATES SOUTH, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY ICE ACCRETION WOULD BE
SPORADIC IN NATURE AND CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW, SO NO
WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
AREAS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A STRAY
SNOWFLAKE MAY MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. TONIGHT,
COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF "WINTER-LIKE"
TEMPS. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FACTORING IN THE
WIND, WIND CHILLS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BOTH BEHIND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, INITIALLY
AS SOME SNOW, BUT THEN AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH AND
OVERRIDES COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE, SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN
INCH, AND A LIGHT ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THROUGHOUT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE WINTRY MIX MAY HOLD A BIT LONGER IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK.
A SPRING-LIKE WARMUP WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. FOR SOME
AREAS, HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY STARTING ON THURSDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE SEVERAL
IMPULSES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING RAIN FROM TIME
TO TIME, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS DELMARVA. THEN IT REALLY GETS WARM.
THE 01Z/01 NBM INDICATING A 20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER 65 ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-78, AND FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DELMARVA. A WEAK COLD FRONT KNOCKS
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, THEN THE
WARMTH RETURNS FOR SATURDAY. THE 01Z/01 NBM INDICATING A 20 TO
40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 65 NORTH OF
I-78, AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND 60 TO 80 PERCENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DELMARVA. SOME SPOTS, MAINLY INLAND, MAY
EXCEED 70!
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THRU 11Z)...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR
MIV AND ACY THRU 10Z. ELSEWHERE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN OCCURRENCE SO DROPPED OUT OF TAF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 3-8 KT AFTER
08Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-15Z AND CONTINUING THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT ABE, A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT RDG AND
PNE, FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TTN, AND LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 8-13 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND SKC. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
LATE IN LIGHT SN.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
RA/SN/FZRA TUESDAY MORNING, THEN RA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RA.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTS UP TO 22-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT DUE TO SPORADIC
NATURE, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF SCA HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SPOTTY FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FEET. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BELOW
25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/MPS
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
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