230
FXUS61 KPHI 191828
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ WAS ADDED TO THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR WARREN/MORRIS/SOMERSET/HUNTERDON
COUNTY IN NJ AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PA FOR TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED FOR THE OCEAN AND DELAWARE
BAY UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS, WITH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING BEING THE
COLDEST PART OF THE STRETCH. A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THEN OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD AFTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, WITH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING BEING THE COLDEST PART OF THE STRETCH. A RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEN OCCURS LATER THIS WEEK.
COLD AIR WORKS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INITIALLY, SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS QUICKLY FALLING OFF, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WILL PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 30S. SOME SPOTS EVEN
SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING, MAINLY IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ. IN FACT, SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ WAS ADDED TO THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT, JOINING CARBON AND MONROE COUNTY IN
PA.
WITH SOME MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 34 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE, SOME FROST
IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING. A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ (WARREN/MORRIS/HUNTERDON/SOMERSET)
AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PA.
AFTER AN UNEVENTFUL MONDAY DAY PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SLIDE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE DURING TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A CLEARING SKY,
WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT TO CALM AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES NOW HAVE AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON DUE TO THE
RECENT EXCESSIVE WARMTH. BLOOMS/VEGETATION HAVE QUICKLY
INITIATED AND IN SOME CASES ARE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. FRUIT TREES
AND OTHER COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS ALREADY PLANTED ARE THE MOST
CONCERN. FROST FORMATION MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN A MUCH
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CITY
CENTERS AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. IN SOME CASES, WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND INTO THE LOW 20S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR GRAUPEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THE AIR MASS
BELOW CLOUD BASE LOOKS RATHER DRY AND THEREFORE ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS COULD BE MOSTLY VIRGA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH A BREEZE AND THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. A RETURN, SOUTHERLY, FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...NARROW BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 20Z
FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 21Z.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
MONDAY...VFR. A FEW LIGHT/BRIEF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS, QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOW CLOUDS AROUND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 5 PM FOR ANZ453 TO ANZ455
AND ANZ485 AS GUSTS AROUND 34 KT ARE ONGOING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR DELAWARE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET. OUTSIDE OF
ANZ485 WHERE SCAS ARE NOT ISSUED, WOULD EXPECT THE NEED FOR AN
SCA ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES.
AFTER A TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WINDS PICK BACK UP FOR
MONDAY. GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR DELAWARE
BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. WILL LET CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES
RUN THEIR COURSE BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING FOR MONDAY.
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NJZ001.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ007>010.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ453>455-485.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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