955
FXUS61 KPHI 051106
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
606 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ITS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
LATER TODAY. WE'RE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF INFLUENCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM, SO ODDS FAVOR LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVING IN WITH THE WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS TO HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN TO AROUND PHILLY, WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE POCONOS. REALLY THIS PROBABLY ISN'T
MORE THAN FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF ACCUMULATION.
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS, CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS 20S
POCONOS, 30S LEHIGH VALLEY DOWN TO PHILLY METRO, 40S ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE DELMARVA.
TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT SO SHOULD CLOUDS AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD DROP A BIT, EXPECT
A NIGHT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS BELOW BUT CLOSER
TO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS, PERHAPS STAYING ABOVE IN PARTS OF
THE DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A MILDER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AND DRIVES LOW PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A ZONE OF INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MOSTLY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS COULD BE EXTENSIVE WITH EVEN SOME FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LINGERING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A
TIME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU TO PARTS OF SUSSEX
COUNTY, NJ. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME LOW 50S IN DELMARVA AND UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE
EVENING BEFORE HOLDING STEADY OR RISING SOME OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EASTWARD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS COLD
FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG, BUT IT WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME. A WEST- NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOW/MID 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED MILD AIR MASS. THURSDAY'S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY DURING
THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY.
IT GETS MORE ACTIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WE LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE TRACK WELL NORTH AND WEST OF US, IT WILL BE AN ALL
RAIN EVENT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A DEEPENING LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY. POPS ARE GENERALLY 40-60
PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST WITH PORTIONS OF DELMARVA GETTING TO NEAR 60
(HIGHS 45-50 IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY).
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO POTENTIALLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR). THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS MID-MORNING TO MIDDAY,
BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS BACK TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. COULD BE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR AS LOW-LEVEL JET
FIRES UP. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT (SOME FOG POSSIBLE), OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS CLEAR OUT.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS TURNING SSW 15-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/RCM
MARINE...GORSE/RCM
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