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FXUS61 KPHI 292259
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
2. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
TONIGHT, BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTER A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, A COOL NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE
DOWN TO NEAR-SATURATION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL RECENTLY AND HAVE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SHOULD TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL ENOUGH THAT
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ONE OTHER ASPECT TO WATCH WITH THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT
LOCATION, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN DAYS TO MONITOR
ARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REGARDING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS
THAN 20%) OF SOME PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY FOR MIV AND ACY.
WINDS FAVORING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 5
KTS, WITH CALM PERIODS LIKELY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING FOR RDG AND ABE WHERE WE'VE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 18Z. RDG AND ABE HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS, BUT THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
THE I-95 TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KTS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KTS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FEET. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN NJ COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON SUNDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS WILL
REMAIN. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 1 FOOT. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND
8 SECONDS WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A LOW RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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