303
FXUS61 KPHI 190050
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. AS WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY (THOUGH SPEEDS MAY STAY NEAR 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT),
AND CLOUDS DECREASE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE EFFICIENT
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ONE POTENTIAL QUESTION
MARK IS THE COASTAL PLAINS - IF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE OUT, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH - AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
EVEN WITH LOWERING MIN T SLIGHTLY, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHELTERED VALLEYS IN CARBON, MONROE, AND
SUSSEX (NJ) COUNTIES. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAS AFFECTED
WILL BE LIMITED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. FAIR WEATHER WITH COOL DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE HIGHS WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN RATHER
ACTIVE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL IN OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH
SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, AS WE WELCOME AUTUMN. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE UP
NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD RETURN NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BY 06Z. WINDS MAY START NORTH NORTHWESTERLY, BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS OF 10 TO
15 KT SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT BY 06Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND ENHANCED SEAS ON THE OCEAN. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCA FLAG FOR THE NORTHERN DEL BAY COULD BE
TAKEN DOWN THIS EVENING IF WIND GUSTS DECREASE LATER ON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY. A NORTHEAST WIND IS
FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. WAVES
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THIS PERIOD AS THE GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD
BE SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS...
ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS ACTIVE. AS A RESULT,
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY,
THOUGH IF THE WAVES INCREASE HIGHER OR IF LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
ARRIVE SOONER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE NEW MOON OCCURRED ON THURSDAY AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST: A CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE RECENT
NEW MOON, WE ARE EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH
TONIGHT'S AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDES. CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH OF BARNEGAT BAY GETTING CLOSE
TO OR JUST TOUCHING MODERATE FLOODING LEVELS WITH THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER: A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND IS NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAY SHORES OF DELAWARE, WHERE WE EXPECT MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH TONIGHT'S AND SATURDAY MORNING'S
HIGH TIDES.
FOR THE NORTHEAST CHESAPEAKE BAY: WE DO NO EXPECT ANY COASTAL
FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020-022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ012.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O'HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI
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