929
FXUS61 KPHI 080716
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE AND
THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2. TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING, SO WILL
CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES AS
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS ARE NOW LESS THAN 46 MPH. HOWEVER, FOR THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE REST OF THE AREA, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, AND THEN WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT.
DUE TO HOW COLD IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE, WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.
BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EAST TODAY, THEN WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE
WINDS, WIND CHILLS TODAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AS
LOW AS -10. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -20 IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND AS
LOW AS -10 TO -15 ELSEWHERE.
AS A RESULT, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
10 AM MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE ON MONDAY, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE UNDERWAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TUESDAY.
AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST AND ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE UNDERWAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING
TUESDAY AND THEN TO RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THAWING TAKING PLACE MORE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING EACH
NIGHT RESULTING IN THAW AND REFREEZE CYCLES, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKING LIKE THE MILDER NIGHT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND THIS BEING MORE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM, THE MAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THIS
RESULTS IN LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE NBM HAS SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY LATER TUESDAY WITH
AN INCOMING WARM FRONT, OTHERWISE THE POPS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
SOME 00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER THOUGH WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. AS OF NOW, MADE NO CHANGES TO THE NBM GUIDANCE. IT
THEN TURNS COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT NOT TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF OUR CURRENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK. A STORM MAY THEN ARRIVE
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND/OR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 35 KT
GUSTS, DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER 09Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS,
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AFTER 21Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR CEILINGS LOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND GALE WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...ICE CONTINUES ACROSS AREA BAY
WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE HAS GROWN IN
THICKNESS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY NORTHWARD,
OR UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THAT'S NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO GET TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL,
PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND BEFORE IT CONTRACTS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THIS ONGOING DEEP FREEZE THIS WEEKEND. FOR THIS
WEEK, THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN THE ICE GROWTH DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FEBRUARY 8
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) -5/1935
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 3/1967
AC MARINA (55N) -1/1895
GEORGETOWN (GED) 3/1967
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) -15/1963
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) -2/1934
READING (RDG) -4/1934
TRENTON (TTN) -8/1934
WILMINGTON (ILG) 0/1895
RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FEBRUARY 8
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 16/1934
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 20/1951
AC MARINA (55N) 14/1895
GEORGETOWN (GED) 27/2007
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 10/1936
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 9/1895
READING (RDG) 18/1951
TRENTON (TTN) 12/1895
WILMINGTON (ILG) 12/1895
EQUIPMENT
THE FORT DIX RADAR (KDIX) IS OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS LONGER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY REPLACEMENT PARTS ARRIVE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
071-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DEZ001>004.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/MPS
AVIATION...GORSE/MPS
MARINE...GORSE/MPS
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