693  
FGUS72 KCAE 111907  
ESFCAE  
GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-  
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-131915-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
207 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2019  
 
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
...HIGH FLOWS CONTINUE ON THE RIVERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND  
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...  
 
THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND  
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN...EAST-CENTRAL  
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:  
 
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL RESERVOIR AND  
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...  
 
THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG  
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON AND BERKELEY  
COUNTY LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE  
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE  
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS SOUTH  
CAROLINA...  
 
THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH  
CAROLINA...  
 
...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...  
 
OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING JANUARY 10 2019...THE HYDROLOGIC  
AREA RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES.  
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.  
THIS RANGES FROM 90 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS  
AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.  
 
...SOUL MOISTURE-DROUGHT CONDITIONS...  
 
HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS  
AND CSRA.  
 
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 MONTHS HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND  
THIS TREND HAS CONTINUED INTO THE NEW YEAR. THERE ARE CURRENTLY  
NO AREAS OF DROUGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OR GEORGIA AT THIS TIME.  
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY  
INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE  
REGION UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND  
0.50 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
 
...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...  
 
LOOKING AT THE 14-DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO HISTORICAL  
STREAMFLOWS FOR JANUARY 10 2019 SHOW MOST OF THE STREAM BASINS  
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH  
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO RIVER FLOOD  
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA, BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
BROAD RIVER BASIN: MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
CATAWBA/WATEREE RIVER BASIN: MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
SALUDA RIVER BASIN: MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
SANTEE RIVER BASIN: MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
EDISTO RIVER BASIN: ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN: MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
 
...RESERVOIR LEVELS...  
 
RESERVOIR POOL ELEVATIONS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS  
DUE TO RAINFALL EVENTS AND OPERATORS TRYING TO KEEP POOL HEIGHTS  
NEAR THEIR RULE CURVE FOR EARLY JANUARY. A NOTE, RESERVOIR POOL  
ELEVATIONS ARE DEPENDENT ON PROJECT OPERATIONS.  
 
LAKE THURMOND (FP 330.0 FEET)...  
DEC 27 2018 326.77 FEET  
JAN 10 2019 328.50 FEET  
DIFFERENCE PLUS 1.73 FEET  
 
LAKE GREENWOOD (FP 440.0 FEET)...  
DEC 27 2018 436.13 FEET  
JAN 10 2019 434.95 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 1.18 FEET  
 
LAKE MURRAY (FP 360.0 FEET)...  
DEC 27 2018 350.55 FEET  
JAN 10 2019 351.20 FEET  
DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.65 FEET  
 
LAKE MARION (FP 76.8 FEET)...  
DEC 27 2018 76.21 FEET  
JAN 10 2019 76.36 FEET  
DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.15 FEET  
 
LAKE WATEREE (FP 100.00 FEET)...  
DEC 27 2018 100.92 FEET  
JAN 10 2019 99.17 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 1.75 FEET  
 
DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES  
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF  
ENGINEERS...DUKE ENERGY...SOUTH CAROLINA ELECTRIC AND  
GAS...GREENWOOD COUNTY AND SANTEE COOPER.  
 
 
...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...  
 
NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO  
PUSH DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.  
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRING RAIN TO THE MIDLANDS AND  
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST  
AND BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
PLEASE SEE THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.  
 
THE 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 18 THROUGH 24TH  
CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ALONG WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2019 INDICATES EQUAL CHANCE OF  
ABOVE, BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 40 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH CALLS FOR A 33  
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 40  
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
GO TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS AND THE LATEST OUTLOOKS.  
 
...SUMMARY/OUTLOOK...  
 
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED MOIST TO SATURATED SOILS ALONG  
WITH HIGH FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS.  
 
HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID  
JANUARY WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH  
LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING. THE PEAK OCCURS IN EARLY TO MID  
MARCH THEN BEGINS TO END IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.  
 
THE MEDIUM-RANGE TO LONG-RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SPRING SEASON WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TIME  
SPRING ARRIVES.  
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR  
JANUARY 24TH, 2019.  
 
 
...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE  
CONTACT...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
2909 AVIATION WAY  
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170  
PHONE: 803-822-8135  
INTERNET ADDRESS: CAEWX@NOAA.GOV  
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST:  
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
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