797  
FGUS72 KCAE 211833 AAA  
ESFCAE  
GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-  
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-231845-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
233 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2019  
 
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS CONTINUE ON THE RIVERS ACROSS THE  
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...  
 
THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND  
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN...EAST-CENTRAL  
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:  
 
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL RESERVOIR AND  
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...  
 
THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG  
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON AND BERKELEY  
COUNTY LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE  
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE  
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS SOUTH  
CAROLINA...  
 
THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH  
CAROLINA...  
 
...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...  
 
OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING MARCH 21 2019...THE HYDROLOGIC AREA  
RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER INCH UP TO  
1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH  
RIVER AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS  
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL  
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.  
 
...SOIL MOISTURE-DROUGHT CONDITIONS...  
 
HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS  
AND CSRA.  
 
RAINFALL FROM LATE FALL INTO EARLY WINTER HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL. THE RAINFALL FOR JANUARY WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF  
THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. THE RAINFALL FOR  
FEBRUARY WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.  
HOWEVER, MARCH HAS SEEN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE  
AREA. THERE IS AN AREA OF D0, ABNORMALLY DRY, ALONG THE COASTAL  
AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. EVEN A SMALL  
AREA OF D1 ALONG THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER. GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
 
...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...  
 
LOOKING AT THE 14-DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO HISTORICAL  
STREAMFLOWS FOR MARCH 21 2019 SHOW MOST OF THE STREAM BASINS  
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONTINUE TO HAVE NORMAL TO ABOVE  
NORMAL FLOWS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO FLOODING OCCURRING.  
 
BROAD RIVER BASIN: ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS  
CATAWBA/WATEREE RIVER BASIN: ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS  
SALUDA RIVER BASIN: NEAR NORMAL FLOWS  
SANTEE RIVER BASIN: ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS  
EDISTO RIVER BASIN: NEAR NORMAL FLOWS  
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN: ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS  
 
...RESERVOIR LEVELS...  
 
RESERVOIR POOL ELEVATIONS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS  
DUE TO RAINFALL EVENTS AND OPERATORS TRYING TO KEEP POOL HEIGHTS  
NEAR THEIR RULE CURVE FOR EARLY TO MID MARCH. MOST RESERVOIR  
OPERATORS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL FOR SPRING AND SUMMER  
LEVELS. A NOTE, RESERVOIR POOL ELEVATIONS ARE DEPENDENT ON  
PROJECT OPERATIONS.  
 
LAKE THURMOND (FP 330.0 FEET)...  
MAR 07 2019 329.30 FEET  
MAR 21 2019 328.60 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.70 FEET  
 
LAKE GREENWOOD (FP 440.0 FEET)...  
MAR 07 2019 438.25 FEET  
MAR 21 2019 437.61 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.64 FEET  
 
LAKE MURRAY (FP 360.0 FEET)...  
MAR 07 2019 356.84 FEET  
MAR 21 2019 358.02 FEET  
DIFFERENCE PLUS 1.18 FEET  
 
LAKE MARION (FP 76.80 FEET)...  
MAR 07 2019 76.36 FEET  
MAR 21 2019 76.35 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.01 FEET  
 
LAKE WATEREE (FP 100.00 FEET)...  
MAR 07 2019 100.32 FEET  
MAR 21 2019 96.94 FEET  
DIFFERENCE MINUS 3.38 FEET  
 
DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES  
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF  
ENGINEERS...DUKE ENERGY...SOUTH CAROLINA ELECTRIC AND  
GAS...GREENWOOD COUNTY AND SANTEE COOPER.  
 
 
...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...  
 
NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BRING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE  
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL RANGE  
FROM ONE QUARTER INCH UP TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS  
AND CSRA.  
 
PLEASE SEE THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.  
 
THE 8- TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 28TH THROUGH APRIL  
3RD CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE, BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2019 INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 33 TO 40 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL, MAY AND JUNE CALLS FOR A 40 TO 50  
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 40  
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE DEVELOPING EL NINO ARRIVED ON FEBRUARY 14TH AS THE WATERS IN  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY  
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE EL  
NINO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING. THERE  
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE EL NINO WILL CONTINUE INTO  
SUMMER.  
 
GO TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS AND THE LATEST OUTLOOKS.  
 
...SUMMARY/OUTLOOK...  
 
THE AREA IS STILL RECOVERING FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
THAT OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY WINTER PERIOD. SOILS REMAIN QUITE  
MOIST AND IN SOME CASES SATURATED. ADDITIONALLY, FLOWS ALONG THE  
RIVERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA HAVE CONTINUED TO HAVE NORMAL  
TO ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS.  
 
HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID  
JANUARY WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH  
LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING. THE PEAK OCCURS IN EARLY TO MID  
MARCH THEN BEGINS TO END IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.  
 
THE MEDIUM-RANGE TO LONG-RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE INDICATES  
THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SPRING SEASON  
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE  
TIME SPRING ARRIVES.  
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR  
APRI 4TH, 2019.  
 
 
...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE  
CONTACT...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
2909 AVIATION WAY  
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170  
PHONE: 803-822-8135  
INTERNET ADDRESS: CAEWX@NOAA.GOV  
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST:  
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
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