835  
FNUS72 KFFC 080753  
FWSFFC  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FT PERRY WMA SOUTHWEST UNIT F14...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
353 AM EDT THU APR 8 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON APRIL 08.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10AM-12PM THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER FROM  
PREVIOUS DAYS, ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S  
NEAR THE BURN SITE.  
 
SURFACE AND 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SW TO SSW  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 7-12MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO TO 20MPH  
POSSIBLE AT THE SURFACE. TRANSPORT WINDS START OF THE MORNING  
LOW, BETWEEN 5-7MPH, INCREASING TO 14-18MPH FROM THE SW/SSW AROUND  
10AM, THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 20-25MPH AROUND 12-2PM.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............58.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO  
28 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (82300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 70.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......10 DECREASING TO 2.0.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........74 86 91 96 96 96 96 92 86 84  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............20 20 20 30 30 40 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............59 63 66 68 70 72 73 74 74 74  
DEWPOINT........56 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 60  
RH..............91 84 78 73 68 65 62 61 61 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW S S SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 12 13 14 16 17 17 17 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 12 17 21 24 26 28 28 28 25  
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............4 9 28 41 51 62 67 71 72 67  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 10 27 36 46 65 75 77 81 82  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD  
CEILING (KFT)...12 10 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
2200, THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL 0500, THEN 1-8  
STRIKES.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............61.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 9 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (62500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................39 DECREASING TO 2.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......2.5 INCREASING TO 3.0 IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 2.5 OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 1.2  
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 1.0 DECREASING TO 0.9  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........82 73 78 72 74 82 83 84 84 83 81 80  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............40 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
LAL.............3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
TEMP............73 72 71 69 67 66 65 64 64 63 63 63  
DEWPOINT........60 61 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 62  
RH..............64 67 71 77 83 88 90 92 92 94 95 95  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S S SW S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 14 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5  
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 8  
ADI.............39 12 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..63 23 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
CEILING (KFT)...2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............62.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 21 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (40400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................5 INCREASING TO 39.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30 INCHES.  
CEILING (KFT).......0.8 DECREASING TO 0.6 IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 0.8 LATE IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO 1.0 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 1.5 INCREASING TO 2.0 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 2.5.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........81 84 84 83 82 81 81 80 80 79 77 76  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............20 30 40 40 50 60 60 60 60 60 60 60  
LAL.............2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............63 63 64 66 68 70 72 74 74 75 75 74  
DEWPOINT........62 62 62 63 63 63 63 62 61 61 61 61  
RH..............96 96 96 89 83 78 72 67 64 62 62 63  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 11 11 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 7 10 13 14 15 15 18 21 21  
LVORI...........8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............2 3 4 7 16 23 26 29 38 37 41 41  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 6 16 21 23 27 29 32 38 40  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR  
CEILING (KFT)...0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5  
 

 
FORECASTER...MORGAN  
REQUESTED BY...MIKE THOMPSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108266.0/FFC  
.DELDT 04/08/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL MICHAEL.THOMPSON@TNC.ORG  
 
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