856
FXUS62 KCAE 011018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
FOR THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IN OVER A MONTH STARTING LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES BY THIS EVENING. NAEFS IVT REACHES THE 97TH
PERCENTILE WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF PWATS SHOW A
STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS TO 1.2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AT 12Z SATURDAY, WHICH LIKELY WOULD FAVOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WITH LOWER
VALUES NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE
EVENTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY WHEN THE PHASING OCCURS AND AND IF
THERE IS ANY AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, OVERALL
RAINFALL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH LREF PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH OF RAIN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 3 MODEL RUNS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. NBM
ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE 50TH
PERCENTILE VALUES NOW WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RANGE IN VALUES WITH
THE 25TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4 INCHES NORTH TO 1.25
INCHES SOUTH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES NORTH TO 2.4 INCHES SOUTH. REGARDLESS, THIS SHOULD BE THE
IDEAL WAY TO HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LONG
DURATION SOAKING STRATIFORM RAINFALL EVENT RATHER THAN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOTS OF RUNOFF FROM DRY HARD SURFACE
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXTENSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AS NAEFS 1000MB
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS
TRANSITIONING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND THE TAF
TERMINALS AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z.
CEILINGS AT CAE AND CUB COULD STAY AT LOWER END VFR, HOWEVER.
ONE SHOWER IS SHOWING UP NEAR OGB AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING,
BUT WILL LIKELY MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 7-10 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS OR SO.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, SHIFTING
TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT, LIKELY AFTER
03Z-04Z, AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO IFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...29
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