824  
FXUS62 KCAE 240553  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
153 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY TODAY  
- SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER  
CSRA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE BRIEF RESPITE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ALMOST OVER  
UNFORTUNATELY AS MOISTURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN ITS RETURN WITH  
DEWPOINTS UP ALMOST 10 DEGREES IN PLACES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE  
MIDLANDS WHILE SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS SHOWS A GRADIENT ACROSS  
THE AREA FROM AROUND 1.25 INCHES WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.75 IN THE  
EASTERN MIDLANDS.  
 
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OFFSHORE AND IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BRINGING THE AXIS OF HIGHER  
PWATS (AROUND 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE  
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SOME  
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD  
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.  
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH GENERALLY WEAK  
SHEAR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM  
WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO DCAPE VALUES  
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS. AN ISOLATED URBAN FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS MORE  
LIKELY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH  
TRAINING AND AROUND 10KFT DEEP WARM LAYER PROVIDING EFFICIENT  
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO  
WEDNESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SOMEWHAT  
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  
 
TONIGHT, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AS THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO  
SHIFT WESTWARD BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED  
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-  
FREE CONDITIONS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AND  
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND THERE ARE SOME  
INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD DROP SOUTH AN  
STALL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE  
ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL  
GENERALLY RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
TREND UPWARD BOTH DAYS, NEARING TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES IN SOME  
AREAS BY SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINT VALUES SHOULD MIX OUT  
SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH THE LREF WHICH HAS THE  
PROBABILITY OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) AT LESS  
THAN 20% AT ANY LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED, DANGEROUS HEAT EVENT LATE THIS  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT  
DANGEROUS HEAT COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO  
NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST  
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD BEGIN TO ERODE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
BLENDED AND DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
TREND UPWARD, WITH LREF PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF  
100F OR MORE NOW GREATER THAN 75% FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA  
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL BECOME CONCERNING FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY,  
AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HEAT  
ADVISORIES TO BE NEEDED, WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX  
VALUES TO APPROACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.  
 
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY  
KEEP THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED  
AT MOST ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS ON MONDAY. THE  
ERODING RIDGE COULD ALLOW TO A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF  
STORMS TOWARD MID WEEK, AND THAT TOO CAN AFFECT DAYTIME  
HIGHS/HEAT INDEX VALUES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,  
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING AT  
OGB/AGS/DNL WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT OGB. MOISTURE WILL BE  
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH  
PUSHES ONSHORE AND INTO THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT  
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND  
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASED  
MOISTURE AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS  
WILL PICK UP FROM THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO AROUND  
6 TO 9 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-  
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION COULD BRING PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND OVER  
THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY  
PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HC/JAQ  
NEAR TERM...HC  
SHORT TERM...JAQ  
LONG TERM...JAQ  
AVIATION...HC  
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