936
FXUS62 KCAE 211708
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1208 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REACH ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE A STEADY WARMING TREND
IS SEEN THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN FA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS
PUSHING IN WITH IT. CAM'S AND THE 12Z HREF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A LACK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWAT'S PEAKING AROUND 0.65-0.75").
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
FA AS WINDS THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING WHERE A COUPLE GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS EVEN DRIER AIR IS PUSHED IN. TONIGHT, THIS PUSH OF
DRY AIR LOWERS DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, BUT
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED SO LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, THOUGH IT COULD BE A
BIT WARMER TOWARD THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CREATE WEDGE-
LIKE CONDITIONS OVER THE FA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP OFFSET THE COOLER AIR MASS AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES END UP AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL ALSO RECOVER SOMEWHAT,
LIKELY LEADING TO MORE CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD PUTS AN END TO
THE WARMING TREND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM BEFORE FLATTENING OUT DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODS WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HALT THE WARMING TREND AS
ANOTHER COOL, DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA RIGHT NOW FROM THE NW AS
WINDS ARE STARTING OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST, BUT WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MID
LEVEL CUMULUS. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 30 KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT BETWEEN 900-1500FT, JUST SHY OF LLWS CRITERIA WITH THE
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS, BUT IF WINDS END UP WEAKER, MENTION OF
LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN DRIER AIR IS USHERED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON SEES LIGHT WINDS THAT REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE A RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MID WEEK WHERE MORNING
FOG OR STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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