734
FXUS62 KCAE 111041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT
OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
- 2. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS.
DEEP TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST TODAY, AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL FORCE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION NEAR THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE, AND CONSEQUENTLY
850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO 99.5 PERCENTILE TO MAX ALL TIME. WITH
THE NBM MAXT INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF ONLY 2 DEGREES FOR CAE (88-90
DEGS F AS OF THE 0311/01Z RUN), THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NEAR RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 85-90 DEGS F ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA, AND THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR BOTH CAE AND AGS IS AN AT-RISK 88 DEGS F, SET BACK IN
1990.
HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. AS LOWER HEIGHTS MOVE OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION (MORE ON THAT IN KEY
MESSAGE #2), TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE 20 DEGREES OR MORE AND BE
MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS (GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR MID MARCH). A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS THEN
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW DAYS OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ENTERS THE PICTURE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH REGARDING A DECENT SHOT FOR RAIN
IN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS AN AIRMASS-CHANGING FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY WITH TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL, STEMS FROM HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT IS MORE CLEAR, IS THAT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE PW VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.25"
AND 1.5", WHICH IS 175%-225% OF NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 60S INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY, THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY FAVORING A FASTER SOLUTION, WITH THE SHORT
TERM AND NEAR TERM MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. A FASTER EVOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, KEEPING INSTABILITY
LIMITED AND FAVORING AREAS TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY FAVOR MORE THUNDER DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
PRESENT WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS A BIT CONDITIONAL AS THE FINER
DETAILS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ALSO DESERVE A MENTION, GIVEN THAT NOW 24-
36 HOURS OUT, THERE REMAINS A 4-8 DEGREE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR NBM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SPREAD IS EVEN LARGER IN THE LREF,
WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SPREADS OF 6-10 DEGREES, AND EVEN
HIGHER DISCREPANCIES FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE COAST.
THAT SAID, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THURSDAY,
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, RAIN, AND HOW FAST
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE AREA.
A FINAL NOTE; THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY, AND CONTINUE
TO BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY STRONG, AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY 35-45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, AND
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING....
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AGS WHICH
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITY DUE TO TRANSIENT
RIVER FOG. TEMPO HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
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