338
FXUS62 KCAE 140613
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED (BUT REMAINS NONZERO) WITH HRRR
TRENDING DRIER. WITH DRY AIR MASS LIKELY TO PERSIST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY WITH A VERY LIMITED
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
3) COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY WITH A VERY LIMITED
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.
A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES,
HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE MID LEVELS
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DEVELOPING. WHILE THERE REMAINS THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES, THE HRRR HAS TRENDED MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER RISK.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA. HREF PROBABILITY
FOR RH DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES (25 PERCENT) IS AROUND 40%.
HIRES MODELS TYPICALLY PERFORM BETTER IN POST FRONTAL NW FLOW FOR
EVALUATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH IN HREF IS ACTUALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH MAY
NOT OVERLAP WITH THE LOWEST RH. DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO IF
WE REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THE AIR MASS THAT SETTLES OVER
THE AREA WILL REMAIN VERY DRY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN RH DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG MIXING AS
THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM NOSE
AROUND 850MB. BREEZY WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER 24-36 HOURS OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, NEAR COLD WEATHER CRITERIA LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES LIKELY JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WITH WINDS LIKELY BECOMING LIGHT. NBM
CONTINUES TO SHOW PROBABILITIES OF LOWS BELOW 20F AROUND 50-80%.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ALREADY, ANY WIND MAY PUSH US TO
CRITERIA. LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT WITH MODELS CONSISTENT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WHILE POPS REMAIN LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WITH AT LEAST A BIT OF A TREND AMONG SEVERAL GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOWERING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY TO RESULT IN MUCH VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UP
FOR SOME MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS BUT THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS
DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST AROUND 05Z-06Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/96
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page