075
FXUS62 KCAE 101817
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED THE KEY MESSAGES TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER SHOWERS AND
STORM COVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT.
- 2. HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT.
TODAY, LATEST RAP INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE ALREADY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH HAS ALREADY ALLOWED
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH AS WELL. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS LACKING, STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A BIT STRONGER ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPC HAS CONTINUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE NEARING APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, CREATING A
FAVORABLE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST ENVIRONMENT. FREEZING
LEVELS REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH, EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
LIMITING ANY HAIL THREAT. A FLATTENING 500MB TROUGH TONIGHT
MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT.
TOMORROW SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE WEAK RIDGING THAT WE REMAINED SOMEWHAT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. IN ADDITION, PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SPC HREF MEAN SHOWING VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WEAKER
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AN ENVIRONMENT BUT
WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE FRONT
EACH DAY, FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHERE INSTABILITY MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, A
FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS. IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING
POTENTIAL TRAINING WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS
OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR CONTINUES TO FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN THE RECENT HOT WEATHER, THE NBM
TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE
IQR. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE VERY HUMID, WITH BLENDED DEW POINTS
CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS NOTED ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, FIRST AT
THE COLUMBIA SITES AND THEN TOWARDS THE AUGUSTA AND ORANGEBURG
SITES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG, LEADING TO PRIMARILY BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HANGING AROUND THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. IF AGS AND OGB GET ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY,
EXPECTING THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM EARLY ON
TOMORROW MORNING THERE. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE SUN IS UP, SO
EXPECT GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH 4-8
KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND THE GUSTINESS RETURNING AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL
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