866  
FXUS62 KCAE 192242  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
642 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE  
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS WEEK. A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL SINK  
SOUTHWARD AND BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE  
RIDGING WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL PREVENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEAR  
TERM. A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A FEW CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS  
FROM UPSTREAM SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID  
60S. FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT A FEW LOW  
CLOUDS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT, LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD  
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE WILL BE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING  
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND  
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE UNDER THE  
UPPER RIDGING. CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SEABREEZE  
FRONT PLUS A LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL  
BE THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL, WITH GENERAL UPPER RIDGING AND  
LITTLE MOISTURE WE BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOW.  
THE ARW ALONG WITH THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE VERY  
LITTLE COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE HEATING AND DRY  
AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AIDING DOWNDRAFTS INDICATES A  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS.  
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE  
PERIOD.  
 
THE MODELS INDICATE GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH  
SOME TROUGHING, MAINLY THERMAL. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT  
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING. THE PATTERN INDICATES HOT CONDITIONS  
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUPPRESSED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS  
HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH POPS LESS  
THAN 20 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST, WITH  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY  
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND. A DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL  
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR OVERNIGHT. A S TO SW LOW LEVEL JET  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT  
FOG, BUT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS  
COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, ALONG  
WITH SOME INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, MAY PROVIDE SOME  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE FRONT, AND NEAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG A  
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ANY CONVECTION MONDAY WOULD BE AFTER 18Z  
AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT 18Z TAF PACKAGE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING  
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE, THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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