572
FXUS62 KCAE 221406
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1006 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OUR ELEVATED FIRE RISK
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLIMB THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AND A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE RH
VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH MOST AREAS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON
MINIMUM. AS SUCH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8 PM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PRODUCING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATED INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST, CROSSING
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST, CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW A
60-70 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 8
KNOTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SUNSET AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AND WIND GUSTS IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THE FIRE RISK WILL BE HANDLED WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. THE RED FLAG FIRE ALERT FROM THE SOUTH
CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION REMAINS IN EFFECT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page