777
FXUS62 KCAE 022336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE CALM WEATHER.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG THOUGH, ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER, BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
STRONG UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING OFF
SHORE OF THE UPPER EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH DIGGING IN, LEADING TO
500 MB HEIGHTS THAT REMAIN NEUTRAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DESPITE THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US. LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY
TURNS WESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
INTO THURSDAY, AIDING INCREASING MOISTURE, THOUGH PWAT'S LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER 1.25" ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING TOWARD 1.50" INTO
THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AS TEMPERATURES RAISE CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90, EACH DAY. IN GENERAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MOST UPPER SUPPORT AND ANY SHORTWAVES
PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
EVENTUALLY MOVING TOWARD THE FA THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, BUT MOST
MEMBERS IN BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE
WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL OCCLUDE, SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT, BUT A SECONDARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HEIGHTS REMAIN NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY RISE AND PWAT'S REMAIN
NEAR 1.50". THE FRONT SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE FA LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY WITH A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND DEEPER MOISTURE. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND CONTINUES WHERE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLENDED GUIDANCE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL SUNDAY.
FOR THE EARLY WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER EAST COAST, RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE FA AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING TOWARD
THE NE. THIS SHOULD YIELD NEAR SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE ARE MORE
NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO TUESDAY. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF (AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS) SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EARLY WEEK, THOUGH THE GFS HAS A
MUCH MORE COMPACT/SHARP TROUGH DEVELOPING, LEADING TO 700-500MB
WINDS THAT ARE MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE
DRIER SIDE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED TROUGH. POP'S IN THE EARLY
WEEK WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD EXIST EACH
DAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 7 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VARIABLE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR
MIFG OR RIVER FOG NEAR DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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