606
FXUS62 KCAE 081759
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A RETURN TO COLDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON: WELL THE FOG HAS FINALLY JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH ONLY THE VERY EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG. THIS
WILL COMPLETELY BURN OFF SHORTLY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEING PARTLY CLOUDY AND TURNING MILD AGAIN. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRECIOUSLY
THOUGHT THOUGH, MAINLY DUE TO HOW LONG THE FOG HELD ON, AND THE
CIRRUS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. READINGS GENERALLY FROM AROUND 70
NORTH, TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT: ONCE AGAIN, FOG WILL BE THE RUNNING THEME FOR A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MOVING FURTHER INLAND
AND NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SINCE THE SETUP IS NOT ENTIRELY IDENTICAL AS LAST NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER, WITH A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR ALOFT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE FOG FORMATION
RATHER HARD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THAT
SIGNAL IS HARD TO IGNORE. HAVE AT LEAST INCLUDED DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD, AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED LATER THIS EVENING, AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, READINGS
NEAR 50 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, WHILE MOST OTHER ARES WILL SEE THE
MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- FRONT LEADS TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY.
FOG LIKELY PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
NEAR RECORD VALUES (RECORD FOR FRIDAY 80F AT COLUMBIA, 78F AT
AUGUSTA, SATURDAY 82F AT COLUMBIA, 80F AT AUGUSTA). NAEFS MEAN
CONTINUES TO FAVOR 500MB HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE. HREF MEMBERS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT. ANY RAINFALL LIKELY REMAINS LIGHT,
HOWEVER, WITH FORCING GENERALLY LIMITED. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60.
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP
CHANCES LIKELY LESSEN AS THE BOUNDARY IS PULLED AWAY FROM THE AREA
AS A WARM FRONT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BLENDED GUIDANCE
SHOWS AROUND 60-70% PROBABILITY OF MAX WIND GUST GREATER THAN 30
MPH. TIMING OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST FORCING CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO PUSH NORTH, LIMITING
TOTALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, MUCH COOLER, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES DO NOT POINT
DO PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS COLD SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY
ALSO LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT
DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH AGAIN (~70%). THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS
FORECAST TO BE MONDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA MIDWEEK, WHICH COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING.
AIRMASS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AND GET DEEPER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. MOST TAF SITES HAVE FINALLY TURNED VFR, WITH MAINLY SOME
CIRRUS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION BEING THE ONLY CLOUD COVER. VFR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE BACK DOWN TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT, THEN TO LIFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS 06-07Z. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
BULLISH ON THE FORMATION OF THIS WIDESPREAD FOG, AND CONFIDENCE IN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THAT VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY MORNING. IF
FRIDAY IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW FOG EVENTS, BURN OFF WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL LATE MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND WILL THUS HOLD ON TO
LIFR AT LEAST UNTIL 15Z WHEN VISIBILITIES SHOULD FINALLY BE
IMPROVING. EVEN SO, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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