672
FXUS62 KCAE 241741
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE COLUMBIA
METRO AREA AND COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEY MESSAGE
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
- 1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A AREA OF LIGHTER
RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDLANDS AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHEAST
GA, MAINLY NORTH, ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE NOTICEABLE ON THE MOST
RECENT SCANS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. PWAT AXIS OF
2.2-2.3 INCHES EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED WITH A VERY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT, HIGH RAINFALL RATES. A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS CAD HAS DEVELOPED AND IS EVIDENT IN THE
INSTABILITY FIELDS OF THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING STABLE AIR
WITH EXISTING CIN ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE INTO NORTHEAST GA WITH
MORE INSTABILITY NOTED ACROSS NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL GA INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC TO COASTAL NC, ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HRRR HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH EXISTING
PRECIPITATION AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THE HANDLING OF CONVECTION. HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN CONVECTION CLUSTERING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. HREF LPMM RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE SOME AREAS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUE
TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, DECIDED
TO NOT EXTEND FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH EXPECTATION OF
HIGHER RAINFALL EXPECTED EAST OF OUR AREA AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE
WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-
EVALUATE WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FURTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SUNDAY AND
THEN VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY MID
WEEK.
AS THE UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE BASE AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRECEDING A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL NC NEAR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A 15 PERCENT OUTLOOK ON DAY 5 AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY INCREASED PROBABILITIES AMONG THE ML GUIDANCE AS
WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC LOWERING CIGS AND LOWERED VIS DUE TO RAINFALL.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, PERIODICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. WHEN A
SHOWER OR STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL, EXPECT LOWERED CIGS AND
VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE VFR, BUT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IFR AFTER
ABOUT 02Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH VARYING VIS DUE TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT
12Z-13Z AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEARLY CALM LATE. WINDS INCREASE
TO 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 13Z ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ027-028-031-037-038-
041-135>137.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page