348  
FXUS62 KCAE 020016  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
816 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS  
A WEAK BLOCKING SETUP REMAINS IN PLACE, SO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPS AND SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED  
FROM THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER  
AIR WILL FOLLOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONT AND SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY  
AND MID WEEK, AS MOISTURE STEADILY FILLS BACK IN FOLLOWING THE  
FRONT.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/  
 
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS  
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST WHICH  
HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT  
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER  
THE REGION KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE FAIRLY COMPLEX, YET WEAK, FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN US  
WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE  
FURTHER DEVELOPS OVER THE GOM AND DEEP RIDGING PERSISTS TO ITS  
NORTH. THIS REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY  
OF FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY, OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE AND  
NORTHERLY FLOW BELOW 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RELATIVELY  
DRY AIR. SO, DESPITE HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-80'S, THE  
RELATIVELY SCARCE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL ONLY PRODUCE A  
LOW- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM. THE FLOW  
PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY WITH THE  
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING WEST AND THE GOM LOW SLIDING EAST. A SERIES  
OF SHARP TROUGHS ARE THEN WELL PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN  
FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, DRIVING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND  
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH BY LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
WITH THE FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN DRY AIR AND VERY POOR MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE MUCH OF THE RISK.  
 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GOM: AS OF 18Z ON THURSDAY, NHC  
HAS A 70% PERCENT CHANCE OF THE TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. NO  
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO OUR AREA BESIDES DEEPENING THE ALREADY BROAD  
TROUGH IN PLACE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US WILL  
CONTINUE DIVE AND INDIRECTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH  
THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL PRIMARY CUTOFF LOWS, EAST OF THE GREAT  
LAKES, WHICH WILL THEN SERVE TO FORCE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWEST  
FLOW DOWN THE APPALACHIANS BELOW 500MB AND INTO OUR AREA  
STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK. DESPITE A BIT OF  
COLD ADVECTION, THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW ALLOW FOR  
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS  
TO NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, DESPITE BELOW AVERAGE  
HEIGHTS ALOFT. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFTER AROUND 10Z TO 12Z, CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED  
TO LOWER TO 3-6KFT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. LOW  
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS  
DUE TO DRY AIR AND A LLJ AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP  
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A  
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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