793
FXUS62 KCAE 120550
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT,
WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE NEXT WEEK IS LOW, LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AND VERY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST WITH 500MB
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES 3-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SUPPORTING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COLD AND WINDY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE CLOUDS LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CROSSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.
A REINFORCING COLD, DRY AIR MASS RUSHES IN WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THE SETUP LOOKS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY SO TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION, SOME LOCATIONS COULD
APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT NIGHT SHOULD THE
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED.
THERE IS HIGH VARIANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE EXTENDED BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENT
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. A FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING TROUGH BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
RESTRICTION CONCERNS. WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH SOME THIN
HIGH CIRRUS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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