390
FXUS62 KCAE 110616
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPDATE TO
AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT MOVES IN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT MOVES IN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. PWATS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB WINDS ALOFT, EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING WITH HREF PROBABILITY OF 850MB WINDS
GREATER THAN 45 KNOTS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80% IN SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA). HREF MEAN PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.2 INCHES AS A
RESULT. WHILE HIRES MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ACTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR TODAY,
HOWEVER, WITH HIRES SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING SOME INCREASED
MIXING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE INVERSION THAT
SETS UP OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET TO MIX DOWN. WHILE HIRES GUIDANCE WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY
OVER-MIXING TO SOME EXTENT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW AFTER
SUNRISE WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE JET
BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WHILE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY, NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BAJA LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE GULF.
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW AROUND 60-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER REMAINS VERY LOW AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A COMPETITION BETWEEN COLD AIR DAMMING POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
LOWERING LATER TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AREAS. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN A RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH SUNSET, THEN WINDS WILL DECOUPLE SOME AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
2KFT AS LOW-LEVEL JET GETS STRONGER, BUT AT THIS TIME SURFACE WINDS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF ANY LLWS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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