980
FXUS62 KCAE 182344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. DRY
WEATHER AND A STEADY WARMING PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE FA
WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT
AND SHOULD BE NEAR I-95 AROUND DAYBREAK. WHILE LIGHTNING HAS NOT
YET BEEN DETECTED LOCALLY, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
THREAT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE NEAR TERM,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWN AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, A POTENT TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL WANE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY EARLIER
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET CAN REACH THE SURFACE TONIGHT. AN UPTICK IN THE WIND IS
EXPECTED REGARDLESS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK DOWN
AFTER SUNRISE AT THE LATEST. WITH WAA ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FALLING TOWARDS DAYBREAK FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE EAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND BREEZY FOR FRIDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND SETTING UP A NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME. WINDS GUSTS WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MAXES OUT AROUND
55 KNOTS BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM. 850MB WINDS WILL THEN STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT 50+ KNOTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED ALOFT THROUGH ROUGHLY 1PM; THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 3PM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 30+ MPH
GUSTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND CALM WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR ARE REMAINING UNDER GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING.
OVERALL THIS WILL YIELD A DRY PATTERN WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EACH
DAY WITH LITTLE OVERALL IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION. NAEFS AND EC EFI
SHOW THIS FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
NOTABLE ANOMALIES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AT WHICH RIDGING
SHIFTS EAST AND WE WILL ENTER A WELL ABOVE NORMAL PERIOD FOR
TEMPS; IT CURRENTLY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A RECORD BREAKING PATTERN
AROUND CHRISTMAS BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN UP INTO THE AREA TODAY, ALLOW FOR A VARIETY
OF CIG HEIGHTS AT THE TERMINALS. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, WE HAVE
GONE INTO THE TANK WITH CIGS AT 500 FT OR LESS IN THE AUGUSTA AREA,
AS WELL AS CAE. ALL THE TAF SITES WILL BE PLAGUED BY LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF RAIN, BUT
CIGS WILL BE A LARGER PROBLEM THAN VSBYS.
THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND CROSSES
THE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL,
AND I SEE NO REASON THE LOWER THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT IN OUR TAF FORECASTS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT
THE WIND WILL STAY GUSTY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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