794
FXUS62 KCAE 081029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES IVT WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORCED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH NEITHER DAY EXPECTED TO BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
AREA WHERE PWATS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS PROBABILITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER
THAN A HALF INCH IS BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY BASED ON GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER FORCING IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL RAIN.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME
MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER
20Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page