668
FXUS62 KCAE 020519
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE REGION TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- RAIN END THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE CSRA AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEINGS TO RIDE
UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z. RAIN BEGINS LIGHT, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OF 0.50-1.00 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOWS THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ONGOING AT DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00
INCHES COULD OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH NOON, THE OVERALL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THOUGH SOME MINOR OR NUISANCE FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING
RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM, SO EVEN WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT FULLY CLEAR OUT. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT WITH
THURSDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
THE BASE OF AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE COMBINED WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES,
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO END THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SETTING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH RAIN APPROACHING EARLY ON FRIDAY, WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO WARM MUCH, IF AT ALL, DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE
(20-30%) OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SOME AFTER THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM, BUT REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS RAINFALL BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE LOW CEILINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD
DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD LIFR CEILINGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL BE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS 18Z, WITH SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS
BACK INTO MVFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND
POSSIBLE SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER 00Z
THROUGH 06Z, WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS MORNING,
THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
MOVES EAST AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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