734  
FXUS62 KCAE 231430  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
930 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH  
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COMING WEEK WILL BRING  
UNSETTLED WEATHER. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED  
FROM EARLY TO MID-WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO FAVOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. THE LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEK WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD  
INTO THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES HAS YIELDED SOME  
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA BUT THIS  
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH.  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.  
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DESPITE NEAR  
FULL SUN, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY  
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50 SOUTH.  
 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER  
30S IN THE CSRA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA (FA) ON SUNDAY PROMOTING WARM, MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF  
COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE  
WILL LEAD TO PWATS RISING TO OVER 1 INCH ON SUNDAY EVENING. A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND WEAK  
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL LEAD TO  
LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FA  
DURING THE DAY. NEARLY ALL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE RAIN  
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CSRA THROUGH SUNSET. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL  
SHOULD BE IN THE SC PIEDMONT AND NEARER THE NC/SC BORDER AS THE  
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW  
TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING ON MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS THE FRONT AND DEEPER  
MOISTURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE FA, WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE  
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN  
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW  
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
THE FORECAST AREA, MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK.  
WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US MID-WEEK.  
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS  
AND ECMWF, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE  
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. IN EITHER CASE, UNSETTLED WEATHER  
THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE  
FORECAST.  
 
AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK IT WILL  
BE REPLACED BY SURFACE RIDGING. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER  
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5  
TO 8 KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 08Z, WITH NO IMPACTS ON ANY TAF  
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNDAY  
MORNING IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY POSE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A SECOND  
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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