047
FXUS62 KCAE 130836
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
USHERING IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER WEATHER TODAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US DRIVING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SW
FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY LEADING TO THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF DECEMBER TO DATE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP. HOWEVER, SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL MEAN THAT ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. THE FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH BASED ON LPMM DATA FROM THE
HREF. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A BITTER COLD AIR MASS TO
THE AREA.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HREF
MEAN INDICATES THAT PWATS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, NEAR I-
95, WILL BE ABOVE AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. MAJORITY OF HREF MEMBERS HAVE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED (10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AFTER DAYBREAK). HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
LEADING TO FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRONGEST 850MB JET WILL MOVE IN AROUND SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS IN THE EVENING WITH
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 30MPH REMAINING HIGH (AROUND 60-80 PERCENT).
ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE WIND
GUSTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING
ELEVATED WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BITTER
COLD CONDITIONS. BLENDED GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD ONLY
ABOUT 3 DEGREES APART WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MAINTAINING THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR EITHER A
WARNING OR ADVISORY IN THE COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WATCH WITH
WINDS REMAINING HIGHER IN THE EASTERN AREA LOWERING WIND CHILLS.
LREF PROBABILITIES OF MINIMUM WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 15F REMAINS HIGH
(60-80 PERCENT) WITH PROBABILITY OF SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FAVORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.
COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY (60-80 PERCENT). WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA, WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH GUIDANCE TRENDS AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SOMETIMES STRUGGLES IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHTS. AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE, HOWEVER, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND, WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AIR MASS WILL MODERATE BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE LIKELY TO INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MUCH WEAKER FRONT APPROACHING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEAR 12Z SUNDAY
BRINGING GUSTY, NW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS FROM 15Z TO 23Z. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND ANY RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT SO IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS
ARE UNLIKELY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUSTS WILL PICK UP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY AS A COLD, DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ065-077.
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