314
FXUS62 KCAE 271526
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020
SYNOPSIS
RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RIDGING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND IT WILL BE
WARMER IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTH PLUS STRONG MIXING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TODAY. A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS MIXING WILL RESULT
IN DIMINISHED WIND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER
SUNSET. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY
BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO GOOD
MIXING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 50S, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAIN COOL AND DRY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. BY
WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY, THEN A SLOW MODERATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 70S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTH PLUS STRONG MIXING. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS MIXING WILL RESULT
IN DIMINISHED WIND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT
FOG BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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