916
FXUS62 KCAE 310013
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT USHERING
DRY AIR AND CALMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH
IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S OR POSSIBLY 40S. WITH WEST WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WE DO NOT EXPECT EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS.
SATURDAY: NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE FRONT, MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S. CAN’T FULLY RULE OUT A
DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTH NEAR LANCASTER
COUNTY, WITH NBM GIVING THEM LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, BRINGING OUR NEXT 20
TO 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGREEMENT ON THE
DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NOT HIGH, RANGING FROM <500 TO
1500 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, BUT WITH SHEAR VALUES BELOW 20
KNOTS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
MONDAY: THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CALMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT SLOWLY REACH A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY, THOUGH WELL
BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE, NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NO FURTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY.
THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT KEEPING WINDS
UP FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTION WON'T VARY MUCH WITH WSW
WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING W OR WNW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG. HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR COULD ALLOW
FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AT FOG-PRONE AGS AND OGB WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW SATURDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE
EXTENDED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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