350
FXUS62 KCAE 120629
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM
TIME TO TIME AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NC. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN, TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO NEAR
FREEZING FOR LOWS, PARTICULARLY WITH LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SHOULD FEATURE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND USHER IN SOME WARMER AIR, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES, RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT WARM ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS INDICATED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LREF PWAT PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.9
INCH AROUND 40-60%. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ABOVE 10,000 FEET. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD RAIN NOT
EXPECTED AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATING MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT USHERS IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG
COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEGINNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE LIKELY REACHED RELATIVELY EARLY WITH COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US AS
THE NAEFS MEAN SHOWING THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH GREATER THAN
1040MB, ABOVE THE 99.5TH PERCENTILE IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. NBM
INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF MAX GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH AROUND 40
TO 60 PERCENT SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LREF PROBS REMAINING HIGH FOR POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA WHERE THE
CRITERIA IS 15F. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S, AROUND 20 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET. EC EFI ACTUALLY HIGHLIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT LOWS BELOW -0.9
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR TEMPERATURES TO ACTUALLY BE
AROUND THE SAME OR POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, SO REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
OF REACHING COLD AIR ADVISORY CRITERIA. FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE
WITH NBM 50PCT LOWS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
REMAINS NEAR THE GEFS AND ENS MEANS WITH THE GEPS SKEWING THE
DISTRIBUTION TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE, ALTHOUGH THIS TENDS TO BE
A TYPICAL BIAS WITH THE GEPS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND UPPER TROUGHING IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN. DRY WEATHER GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE INDICATED IN ENSEMBLES BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY SKC, WITH PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BRIEF PATCHY MVFR RIVER FOG
COULD OCCUR NEAR AGS/OGB JUST BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING, ITS NOT
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR LIKELY WILL PREVENT
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT LOCALIZED
FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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