365  
FXUS62 KCAE 150038  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
838 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ON MONDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD A BIT QUIETER BEFORE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORTWAVE FROM THE VALLEY CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FORECAST  
AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. IR  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT  
EXPECT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHICH WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL. WITH THE CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ACTIVE MONDAY IS ON TAP AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE  
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE  
IS SHOWING UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPING. THIS HAS ALREADY FORCED A CLOSED SURFACE LOW ACROSS  
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THESE TWO FEATURES WORK IN  
CONJUNCTION, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY  
TOMORROW EVENING, WITH AT LEAST MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOWN BY  
HREF MEAN PUSHING IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WITH DEEP TROUGHING  
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US, AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHING THE REGION, THIS SHOULD HELP YIELD DECENTLY COLD  
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE  
HREF SHOWING 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING. SHEAR ACTUALLY  
LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH 30-35 KNOTS  
OF 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST BY MOST MODELS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING ENHANCED BY A CLOSE SURFACE LOW TRACK.  
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS THAT COULD  
BECOME MORE LINEAR AS TIME GOES ON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS,  
THE CAPE LOOKS TO BE A BIT SKINNY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO  
THE AREA, BUT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS AND FAIRLY STRONG CLOUD LAYER  
SHEAR (~40-50 KNOTS), STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK VERY POSSIBLE.  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEFINITELY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND THE  
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BECAUSE  
OF THIS. BEST TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10  
PM AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA.  
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WARM CONSIDERING LACK OF CLOUD COVER  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS  
IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN AND STORMS LIKELY WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE  
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH. CLOUD  
COVER HANGING AROUND SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW  
70S.  
 
TUESDAY LOOKS A BIT QUIETER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL CAVEATS. THE  
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON, AS  
WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED BY WEAK  
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CLOSED  
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY, AS SURFACE  
NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE  
WESTERN SIDE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS WILL PLAY INTO HELPING  
NOSE DOWN WEDGING LIKE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULT COULD BE ALMOST WEDGE-  
LIKE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY, WITH MULTIPLE MODELS  
FORECASTING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.  
LOOKING AT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE NAM AND GFS, DENSE CLOUD  
COVER LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ON TUESDAY, WITH  
THAT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SO HIGHS  
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO THE LOW 90S DEPENDING ON  
WHERE YOU ARE. RAIN IS ALSO MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND THE  
EAST. OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS  
ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE AND FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING  
AT VERY MERIDIONAL FLOW (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)  
DEVELOPING WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US  
REMAINING IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A  
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES AS PWS RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF A  
PASSING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING, THROUGH, AS GFS/EC ENS BOTH SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE  
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN US. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE TROUGH TO DIG  
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION, AND FORCE THE FRONT THAT  
MOVES TO OUR SOUTH ON TUES/WED TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND SET UP  
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE  
IN PWS UP TOWARDS 2" ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WHEREVER  
THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP IS FAVORABLE  
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO  
REINFORCE THE PRIMARY PARENT TROUGH TO OUR WEST, WHICH SHOULD  
SEND SHORTWAVES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY  
THROUGH THE REGION THUR- SAT OF THIS COMING WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,  
A FAIRLY STRONG (~90TH PERCENTILE) UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS  
EXPECTED TO SET UP TO OUR NORTH, PLACING US IN THE FAVORABLE  
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY EVENING AND LASTING  
THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN IT WEAKENS. WITH PWS NEAR OR ABOVE 2" FOR  
THIS PERIOD AND PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE, THIS SETUP LOOKS  
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUD  
COVER AND GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL FAVOR WELL  
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES (LIKELY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S)  
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS (UPPER 60S). I WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED FLOODING BECOME AN ISSUE IN THIS TIME  
PERIOD AS SOME AREAS WILL SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. SUNDAY LOOKS  
A BIT LESS RAINY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST;  
THOUGH, SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY GIVEN TROUGHINESS  
STILL BEING PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...  
 
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AT CAE/CUB/OGB THIS EVENING WITH  
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND THE AUGUSTA  
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER  
TONIGHT LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO  
THIS WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS  
MONDAY MORNING AT AGS FROM NEARBY RIVER FOG. ANY LOW CLOUDS  
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS  
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST  
ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO ALL TERMINALS AT 21Z  
(22Z AT OGB) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER  
NEAR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TERMINALS BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS  
AND/OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY  
LATE THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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