314  
FXUS62 KCAE 271526  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1026 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW  
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE  
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
RIDGING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND IT WILL BE  
WARMER IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW.  
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE  
NORTH PLUS STRONG MIXING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT  
TODAY. A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS MIXING WILL RESULT  
IN DIMINISHED WIND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS  
IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE  
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER  
20S AND LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON  
FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
AREA AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON  
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER GUSTY DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER  
SUNSET. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOWS DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.  
 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY  
BOTH AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO GOOD  
MIXING. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES  
THROUGH, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 50S, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT  
IN THE LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAIN COOL AND DRY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN  
PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE  
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH  
THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. BY  
WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
SYSTEM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY, THEN A SLOW MODERATION WILL  
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS  
IN THE 70S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW.  
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE  
NORTH PLUS STRONG MIXING. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS NEAR 20  
KNOTS. A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS MIXING WILL RESULT  
IN DIMINISHED WIND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS  
IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT  
FOG BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT  
MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-  
063>065-077.  
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-  
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...99  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...99  
 
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