836  
FXUS62 KCAE 232325  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
725 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BETA AND A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE  
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MAINLY MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. RADAR IS INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS  
AND CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS (SFC DEW  
POINTS IN THE 50S) WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS  
WILL BE NEAR CALM, PICKING UP AFTER DAYBREAK. KEPT POPS LESS  
THAN TEN PERCENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF BETA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING  
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF  
THE LOW, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY, AND DUE TO THIS INCREASE, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL  
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE. THERE WILL  
BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE  
REMNANTS OF BETA INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY, READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO  
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE.  
 
BY SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH BETA WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA,  
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. THIS WILL AID IN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE  
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL  
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY DIMINISH QUICKLY, AND MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE  
DRY. LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND TOWARDS THE THE  
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN  
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT HIGHS  
IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN  
THE DAY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME  
HOURS ON MONDAY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST.  
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL BE  
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION, BUT WITH MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE  
LIMITED, WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, THEN  
COOLER READINGS BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL  
ALLOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST  
STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH  
MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BETA MOVING  
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IMPACT TO TERMINALS LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA EXPECTED TO PROVIDE  
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY  
FRIDAY MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SUN.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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