572  
FXUS62 KCAE 221406  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1006 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE  
FRIDAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OUR ELEVATED FIRE RISK  
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLIMB THIS MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE  
MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AND A  
FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE  
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE RH  
VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS WITH MOST AREAS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON  
MINIMUM. AS SUCH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8 PM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS  
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WITH CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PRODUCING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WILL  
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND THREE QUARTERS  
OF AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO INDICATED INCREASING  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST, CROSSING  
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST, CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW A  
60-70 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH  
DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT  
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES  
BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN. RISING HEIGHTS WILL  
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY AND  
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 8  
KNOTS. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH  
SUNSET AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AND WIND GUSTS IN  
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THE FIRE RISK WILL BE HANDLED WITH A  
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. THE RED FLAG FIRE ALERT FROM THE SOUTH  
CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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