838
FXUS62 KCAE 301806
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
106 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON: WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR HAS
SETTLED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS YESTERDAY'S FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH HAS ALSO
MOVED INTO THE REGION, WITH THE CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS LEADING TO SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN BEFORE
DIMINISHING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THUS, THERE
REMAINS AN ELEVATED (BUT LOW-END) FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO
THE WINDS AND LOW RH, BUT LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE COLD, LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY WINDS ON NEW YEARS EVE MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST IN THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON NEW YEARS EVE
(WEDNESDAY). THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY ARRIVE AROUND SUNSET
WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WIND GUSTS MAY DISRUPT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TURN OF
THE NEW YEAR. CURRENTLY GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 TO
30 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE MEMBERS OF THE HREF ENSEMBLE INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA LAKES AND
UNSHELTERED LOCATIONS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FIREWORKS PLANNED
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY CONTINUING
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TO OUR WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL EARLY SATURDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN EXITS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AFTER 23Z-00Z. WINDS INCREASE TO THE
5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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