341
FXUS62 KCAE 190523
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH DAWN...
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. WIND AND THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FROST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL DOMINATE. THE MODELS DEPICT THE H25 JET SHIFTING FARTHER
EASTWARD AND EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TODAY.
FOLLOWED THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST WITH
NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 10 MPH TODAY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUGGESTS GUSTS AROUND 16 MPH TODAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION TRENDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH
AND MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. A FREEZE WARNING OR FROST ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BY WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG
WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL OPEN UP AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED AND FORCING TOO WEAK FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM, SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. THE GFS IS QUICKER BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL DOMINATE AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS. FOLLOWED THE NAM AND
GFS MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST WITH NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 8 KNOTS
TODAY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUGGESTS GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL LIFT FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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