601
FXUS62 KCAE 241144
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS CHRISTMAS EVE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING, WILL BRING SOME DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR,
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MIDLANDS, WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CSRA. THESE WILL BE NEAR OUR DAILY RECORD
HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DON'T WORRY THOUGH KIDDOS, EVEN
WITH THIS WARMTH AND LACK OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE'D BE
WILLING TO BET THAT SANTA CLAUSE WILL STILL FIND A WAY TO YOUR
HOMES THIS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
BROAD DEEP RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US,
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS-
THICKNESSES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL YIELD SURFACE
TEMPS THAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 70'S ACROSS THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY; GUIDANCE REMAINS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMP
FORECAST, AS ONLY TWO DEGREES SEPARATES THE 10-90TH PERCENTILES IN
THE NBM. THIS WILL YIELD, AT LEAST, A TOP 5 WARMEST CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR BOTH COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA; SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE DAILY RECORDS. BASED ON THE FORECAST ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTIONS, CAE HAS A ROUGHLY 15% CHANCE TO SET THE RECORD FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. AGS IS A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE BUT BOTH CAE AND
AGS HAVE A 95% CHANCE TO BE A TOP 5 WARMEST CHRISTMAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY TO USHER IN A WELL BELOW AVERAGE
AIRMASS.
AS GUIDANCE HAS STEADILY RESOLVED THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BETTER,
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES.
A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET
AND THEN QUICKLY ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL US, WITH A
BROAD WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP ACROSS NC, STRETCHING
DOWN INTO NORTHERN SC. WHILE RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY, THIS CLOUD COVER
AND WEAK TROUGH WILL SET UP A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60'S,
WHILE TEMPS IN AUGUSTA CLIMB INTO THE MID 70'S. THIS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND TEMPS QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY HAS RIDGING FILLS, WITH A RETURN TO TEMPS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AS THE RESIDUAL PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD, A
STRONG LOW AND SURFACE FRONT WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US AND BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BEST FOR
MOST AREAS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPING TO
THE REGION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z ON THE 25TH. AFTER 06Z, GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH
POSSIBLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. CONDITIONS STILL VFR
THOUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COUPLE MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG
OR STRATUS SEEMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS EVE RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 77 F (2015)
- AUGUSTA : 80 F (1964)
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AUGUSTA : 81 F (2015)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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