798
FXUS62 KCAE 280242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH STRONGER GUSTS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
850MB JET BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING;
THESE GUSTS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN SATURDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTS, EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SATURDAY. WITH SOME WARMING TEMPS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
THIS WILL PUSH RH'S DOWN BELOW 20% IN MOST SPOTS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE LOWEST
RH'S WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BUT STILL, A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF 25+ MPH WINDS AND RH LESS 25% IS EXPECTED STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEW POINT
RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TICK
RH'S BACK TO AROUND 30% ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND GA HAVE ISSUED
BURN BAN NOTICES STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS AND A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHERLIES TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IT
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONLY SOME MID-LEVEL STRATOCU IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND GUSTS MAY PICK UP AS THE
FRONT PASSES WITH VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. STRONGER AND
MORE CONSISTENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING INTO THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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