283
FXUS62 KCAE 221023
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE AREA, THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT, POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS COULD BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY
AND FRIDAY BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS. THE SC FORESTRY COMMISSION
CONTINUES A BURN BAN FOR SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES
PLACE BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS GENERALLY RISING TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL FAVOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. BLENDED GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE,
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE A WAYS TO GO TO BREAK
THE DROUGHT WITH ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT OF GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY (AND WE WILL NEED
MORE THAN THAT). THE LONGER TERM PATTERN FAVOR A MORE ACTIVE
(WETTER) PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO EARLY MAY
WITH TELECONECTIONS SUCH AS THE NAO, FAVORING GENERAL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL
LLWS THROUGH 14Z.
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED. SOME UPPER LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THOSE UPPER CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CLOUD COVER TODAY, CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.
BIGGER ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
POTENTIAL LLWS AT ALL SITES. CURRENT SURFACE OBS STILL SHOWING
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MEANWHILE THE KCAE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE (VWP) PRODUCT STILL INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT
IS SHOWING AROUND 35 KNOT WINDS 1-2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
SURROUNDING RADARS NOT QUITE AS STRONG OFF THE SURFACE, BUT
STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION OF LLWS
UNTIL BETTER MIXING STARTS TOWARDS 14Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z
WHEN THE INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK, SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE, ALONG WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
WITH THE CIRRUS CLOUDS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, AND DRIER AIR IN
PLACE, NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCE MOVE IN
THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESTRICTIONS IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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