278
FXUS62 KCAE 130005
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
705 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A DRY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
2) DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER RISK.
3) VERY COLD TEMPS, CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA,
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-
WEEK BEFORE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH WEAK NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP AT OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OUR NEXT, MOSTLY DRY, FRONT. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WEAK, WITH
LESS THAN 25% CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, OR WHEN THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH. GIVEN THE
EXTREME LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING, A FEW GRAUPEL-SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT IMPACTS WOULD BE NULL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK.
FOLLOWING THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THURSDAY WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
COLD ADVECTION REGIME. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY,
COINCIDING WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
A PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
GIVEN THE ALREADY DRY FUELS, AND WIND-RH COMBINATION; RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: VERY COLD TEMPS, CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR SO
FAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOW 20'S IN MOST SPOTS; NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE IS
ROUGHLY FROM 16-22 DEGREES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS WEST,
LINGERING A NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 10'S IN MANY SPOTS, CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS, WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. SOME
PASSING, THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA NOW AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. AS WE
GET THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
5-10 KNOT RANGE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
PWS REMAIN QUITE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MID-WEEK SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...82
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