809
FXUS62 KCAE 090553
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT, INTO THE 20S FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE
IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WHILE LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THERE
WILL BE A PASSING SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH SUCH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS IN STRATUS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
LATE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW AND
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 40S. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AND IF THIS HAPPENS IT COULD LIMIT COOLING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
- SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, PASSING
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
RESULTING IN WARMER, ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT BUT A DRY DAY
IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE BIG STORY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE,
HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED WITH A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE. SURFACE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE
EFFECTIVELY AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETTING UP. AT
THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
- THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MAY USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FA ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH SHOWED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THE NEW
FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH THE LATTER WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE DRY COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM BUT IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WITH
COLD ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
EXPAND TO ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z-10Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS CAE/CUB BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HANDLED
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS. THE HRRR IS AN OUTLIER
SHOWING A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT BUT WITH ALL OTHER GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING THIS DECIDED TO KEEP AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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