262
FXUS62 KCAE 151045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. WE SHOULD HAVE ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL DAY
TODAY, WITH HIGH UP AROUND 80F FOR MOST PEOPLE. IT'LL BE A
PLEASANT 80F AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW AS THE DRY SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE. THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO CHANGE
AND RESEMBLE OUR TYPICAL LATE SPRING WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG AND
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL US OVER THE COMING DAYS, AMPLIFYING THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN US. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISING TO ~588DM, WHICH IS 90-95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COINCIDING WITH THIS IS AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OUR SURFACE HIGH FROM
TODAY SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH.
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE CSRA ON
SUNDAY, CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR LOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(AT THE EARLIEST). GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUES TO SHOW
HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE MON-TUES. HIGHS SUN-
WED ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST & PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY
YIELD HIGH PRECIP CHANCES. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASING AS A RESULT. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER ITEM OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 18Z, THEN TURN MORE OUT OF THE
WEST BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN RETURN TOWARDS
SUNSET. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH ONLY SOME VERY THIN
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND
EXPECTED WINDS, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
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