836
FXUS62 KCAE 232325
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS BETA AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MAINLY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. RADAR IS INDICATING SOME WEAK RETURNS
AND CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS (SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S) WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR CALM, PICKING UP AFTER DAYBREAK. KEPT POPS LESS
THAN TEN PERCENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE REMNANTS OF BETA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOWLY TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, AND DUE TO THIS INCREASE, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE. THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF BETA INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY, READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH BETA WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. THIS WILL AID IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DIMINISH QUICKLY, AND MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRY. LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND TOWARDS THE THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN
THE DAY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON MONDAY, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION, BUT WITH MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE
LIMITED, WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, THEN
COOLER READINGS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH
MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BETA MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IMPACT TO TERMINALS LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SUN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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