414
FXUS62 KCAE 150726
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST OF
TODAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- 2) POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MOST OF TODAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE SOME ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO
DRY WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN 50% AND 65% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND ANY
RAIN TRYING TO FALL IS LIKELY EVAPORATING. THAT SAID, ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH
THE COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW. HREF MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.5", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND WEST OF I-20 AND LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. AROUND
18Z THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE'LL LIKELY THEN
SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
100-300 J/KG OF SBCAPE POSSIBLE IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THIS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SPC IS CARRYING GENERAL THUNDER FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) NOSING IN THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, HODOGRAPHS LOOK FAVORABLE AND 0-3KM SRH APPROACHES 200 M2/S2,
SO IT WOULD APPEAR INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS. A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT IS THEREFORE PLAUSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. THAT SAID, THE ABSENCE OF ONE OR MORE
VARIABLES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE A
BIT SHORTER-LIVED IN NATURE, BUT PACK A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. HREF MEMBERS MOVE THE
BULK OF RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING OVERHEAD INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
1.25" LOOK TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL FAVOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NAEFS
AND GEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO THE
MAXIMA FOR 700MB TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH VALUES
GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 850MB. THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
IN FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM HIGHS ARE AROUND 70
BY TUESDAY, THEN WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS. NBM QMD PROBABILITIES ARE >90%
SOUTHEAST OF I-20 FOR >75 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, WITH STILL IMPRESSIVE
50%-80% PROBABILITIES NORTHWEST OF I-20.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MOVE IN AFTER
12-15Z TODAY AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEING NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS LIKELY CONTINUES MOST OF THE NIGHT
WITH CEILINGS THAT GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 09-10Z WITH WINDS THAT
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS RAIN PUSHES IN BETWEEN
12-14Z, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, CONTINUING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE MORNING AFTER 15-17Z. GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AS WELL
MAINLY FOR THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS AFTER 15-17Z AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN PUSHES IN WHILE THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD OGB. WINDS GENERALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PUSHES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS WHERE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
ADD INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH A SHOT OF "DRIER" AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
THUS RECENT HRRR, HREF, AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW,
BRINGING BACK POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD ALSO WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD, BUT CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
REMAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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