424  
FXUS62 KCAE 181800  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WORKWEEK. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL  
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A  
DRIER AIRMASS. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE  
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA. THESE  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED  
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 70S AND  
LOWER 80S DUE TO CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.  
 
FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING SKIES  
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN  
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT  
IT WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE.  
FOLLOWED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED LOWS ABOUT 60.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A WEDGE OF  
COOL DRY AIR OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH  
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WHICH ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM  
INTO THE UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO A ZONAL FLOW  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS MOVING  
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH RESULTS  
IN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID  
90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE  
REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 24-HOUR TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF  
CAE AND OGB WILL AFFECT AGS/DNL INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST AS DRIER AIR  
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
 
THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS SUPPORTED VFR  
CEILINGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
 
WE FOLLOWED THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST. MIXING  
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SUPPORTED BY  
THE MOS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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