341  
FXUS62 KCAE 190523  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
WILL STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THROUGH DAWN...  
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND  
UPPER 30S. WIND AND THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FROST.  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
WILL DOMINATE. THE MODELS DEPICT THE H25 JET SHIFTING FARTHER  
EASTWARD AND EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TODAY.  
FOLLOWED THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST WITH  
NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 10 MPH TODAY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUGGESTS GUSTS AROUND 16 MPH TODAY.  
LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT  
VERIFICATION TRENDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH  
AND MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. A FREEZE WARNING OR FROST ADVISORY WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BY WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER  
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE  
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A  
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE  
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG  
WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN  
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL OPEN UP AND PASS  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO  
LIMITED AND FORCING TOO WEAK FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE SYSTEM, SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING  
WILL BUILD EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND  
EXPECTED. THE GFS IS QUICKER BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, WENT  
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.  
 
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
WILL DOMINATE AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS. FOLLOWED THE NAM AND  
GFS MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST WITH NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 8 KNOTS  
TODAY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL  
SUGGESTS GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD  
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW  
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS  
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL LIFT FARTHER  
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY  
DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...99  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...99  
 
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