231
FXUS62 KCAE 032328
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING, BUT SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE FA WITH GOES DERIVED
PWAT'S REACHING 1.20-1.40". THIS COMES AS THE AREA FINDS ITSELF
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SATURDAY,
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR SET-UP, WITH MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH THIS COULD BE LESS. THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES AS DCAPE VALUES BARELY TOP 600-700 J/KG.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG INTO
THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT WITH WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN. NBM MEDIAN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE HAD A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN MEDIAN QPF FOR THE
EVENT, NOW CLOSE TO 1/3 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH, WHICH IS ENCOURAGING
FOR THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DETAILED IN KM2. HOWEVER, THE LONGER RANGE CAMS BETTER
SHOW THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH ONLY LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 0.1 INCHES. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT WITH INCREASED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 KTS, A ROUGE STRONGER STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD A ROBUST UPDRAFT ROOT ITSELF AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
IF THE RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, THIS WEEKEND'S
RAINFALL WILL DO LITTLE TO MOISTEN FUELS. A DRY AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 30
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS MAY BE ELEVATED
AND GUSTY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING,
BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO MID EVENING, BUT THEY WILL LIKELY
STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH AN
INVERSION EXPECTED TO SET UP, LOW CLOUD FORMATION WILL BE
FAVORED, WITH CIGS POSSIBLY GETTING BELOW 1000 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. I HAVE INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES
FOR A WHILE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5 AM AND 11 AM. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG, BUT I THINK LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AT THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD BE GREATER THAN 20
KNOTS. THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING, ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/CJR
AVIATION...FA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page