789
FXUS62 KCAE 150637
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2. CONTINUED WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT
RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
- 3. REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE DAILY WARM AND DRY STRETCH CONTINUES WITH A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH DAY WILL
PRETTY MUCH BE A RINSE AND REPEAT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND CAN
NOT RULE OUT APPROACHING OR BREAKING A DAILY RECORD HIGH EACH
DAY. HOTTEST DAYS SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE
INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH
THIS PATTERN, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TIME, SO
WHILE SOME DAILY RECORDS ARE IN PLAY, THE APRIL RECORD OF 96 IN
COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA APPEARS UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONTINUED WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO BRING WIDESPREAD NEEDED RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC LEVEL PULLING WELL TO OUR NORTH. WHAT
MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED AND RATHER LIGHT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THIS STILL APPEARS AS IF
IT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA POTENTIALLY REMAINING
DRY WITH THIS FRONT. ECE AND NAEFS MEMBERS PROG OUT LESS THAN
20% CHANCE OF OVER 0.1", WHICH CHECKS OUT WELL GIVEN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY POOR NATURE OF THIS TYPE OF FRONT FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BEYOND THE LOW END RAIN CHANCES, SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT
WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH A BREAK FROM THE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES AS COOL AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION EXPECTED
THROUGH AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OR PATTERN IMPACTING THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED
DUE TO A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND THAT SHOULD PREVENT FOG
CONCERNS ALTHOUGH DECIDED TO LEAVE A TEMPO FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT AGS DUE TO RIVER PROXIMITY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 8
TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH DAYTIME MIXING EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER
HOT DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
REMAINS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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