365
FXUS62 KCAE 150038
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022
SYNOPSIS
ON MONDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD A BIT QUIETER BEFORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORTWAVE FROM THE VALLEY CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHICH WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL. WITH THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE MONDAY IS ON TAP AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS SHOWING UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THIS HAS ALREADY FORCED A CLOSED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THESE TWO FEATURES WORK IN
CONJUNCTION, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY
TOMORROW EVENING, WITH AT LEAST MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOWN BY
HREF MEAN PUSHING IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WITH DEEP TROUGHING
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US, AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION, THIS SHOULD HELP YIELD DECENTLY COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE
HREF SHOWING 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING. SHEAR ACTUALLY
LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH 30-35 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST BY MOST MODELS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING ENHANCED BY A CLOSE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS THAT COULD
BECOME MORE LINEAR AS TIME GOES ON. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS,
THE CAPE LOOKS TO BE A BIT SKINNY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA, BUT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS AND FAIRLY STRONG CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR (~40-50 KNOTS), STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK VERY POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEFINITELY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND THE
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BECAUSE
OF THIS. BEST TIMEFRAME FOR CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 6 AND 10
PM AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WARM CONSIDERING LACK OF CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN AND STORMS LIKELY WILL HANG ON FOR A WHILE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH. CLOUD
COVER HANGING AROUND SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
TUESDAY LOOKS A BIT QUIETER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL CAVEATS. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON, AS
WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY, AS SURFACE
NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS WILL PLAY INTO HELPING
NOSE DOWN WEDGING LIKE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULT COULD BE ALMOST WEDGE-
LIKE CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY, WITH MULTIPLE MODELS
FORECASTING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS FROM THE NAM AND GFS, DENSE CLOUD
COVER LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ON TUESDAY, WITH
THAT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SO HIGHS
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S TO THE LOW 90S DEPENDING ON
WHERE YOU ARE. RAIN IS ALSO MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS
ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE AND FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING
AT VERY MERIDIONAL FLOW (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)
DEVELOPING WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US
REMAINING IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A
BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES AS PWS RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THROUGH, AS GFS/EC ENS BOTH SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE TROUGH TO DIG
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION, AND FORCE THE FRONT THAT
MOVES TO OUR SOUTH ON TUES/WED TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE
IN PWS UP TOWARDS 2" ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WHEREVER
THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP IS FAVORABLE
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
REINFORCE THE PRIMARY PARENT TROUGH TO OUR WEST, WHICH SHOULD
SEND SHORTWAVES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION THUR- SAT OF THIS COMING WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
A FAIRLY STRONG (~90TH PERCENTILE) UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP TO OUR NORTH, PLACING US IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN IT WEAKENS. WITH PWS NEAR OR ABOVE 2" FOR
THIS PERIOD AND PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE, THIS SETUP LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA WILL FAVOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES (LIKELY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S)
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS (UPPER 60S). I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED FLOODING BECOME AN ISSUE IN THIS TIME
PERIOD AS SOME AREAS WILL SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAINS. SUNDAY LOOKS
A BIT LESS RAINY AS THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST;
THOUGH, SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY GIVEN TROUGHINESS
STILL BEING PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AT CAE/CUB/OGB THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND THE AUGUSTA
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
TONIGHT LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY MORNING AT AGS FROM NEARBY RIVER FOG. ANY LOW CLOUDS
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO ALL TERMINALS AT 21Z
(22Z AT OGB) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER
NEAR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TERMINALS BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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