952  
FXUS62 KCAE 190051  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
851 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND  
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM  
OR TWO IN THE CSRA. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- MILDER LOWS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH THE NEXT  
SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS  
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE  
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  
OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF  
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS ALONG WITH  
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT  
MORE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 50S. RAIN SHOWERS  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, FORCING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE  
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CAMS ARE  
GENERALLY SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 15Z, THEN DECAYING A BIT AS THEY  
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BLENDED GUIDANCE  
INDICATES CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER PROBABILITIES, AND THIS SEEMS  
REASONABLE. INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING, WITH SBCAPE VALUES  
AROUND 300 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CSRA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE  
FOUND. THE SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY  
EVENING ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-  
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT EXPECT SOME EVEN GREATER GUSTS UP TO  
30-35 MPH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS  
WITH/BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. GREATER MIXING IS EXPECTED OVER  
AREA LAKES DUE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT  
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY  
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHERLY  
FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S TO AROUND 80. COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- DRY WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER  
THE EASTERN US LATE TUESDAY, WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE THEN IN GENERALLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY  
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, RAIN-FREE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS  
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN  
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY, RISE TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE  
REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED  
RESTRICTIONS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE  
DAY SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT,  
GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET  
AROUND 25 KNOTS, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH INCREASED  
LOW LEVEL MIXING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY  
APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE  
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, AFTER SUNRISE INCREASING  
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH  
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A RESULT WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FROM  
MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-  
135>137.  
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
GAZ040-063>065-077.  
 

 
 

 
 
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