348
FXUS62 KCAE 020016
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
A WEAK BLOCKING SETUP REMAINS IN PLACE, SO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
FROM THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONT AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AND MID WEEK, AS MOISTURE STEADILY FILLS BACK IN FOLLOWING THE
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST WHICH
HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER
THE REGION KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE FAIRLY COMPLEX, YET WEAK, FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER DEVELOPS OVER THE GOM AND DEEP RIDGING PERSISTS TO ITS
NORTH. THIS REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING ALOFT ON FRIDAY, OUTSIDE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
NORTHERLY FLOW BELOW 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. SO, DESPITE HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-80'S, THE
RELATIVELY SCARCE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
LOW- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A DIURNAL SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM. THE FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING WEST AND THE GOM LOW SLIDING EAST. A SERIES
OF SHARP TROUGHS ARE THEN WELL PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, DRIVING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH BY LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN DRY AIR AND VERY POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE MUCH OF THE RISK.
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GOM: AS OF 18Z ON THURSDAY, NHC
HAS A 70% PERCENT CHANCE OF THE TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO OUR AREA BESIDES DEEPENING THE ALREADY BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US WILL
CONTINUE DIVE AND INDIRECTLY IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL PRIMARY CUTOFF LOWS, EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL THEN SERVE TO FORCE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWEST
FLOW DOWN THE APPALACHIANS BELOW 500MB AND INTO OUR AREA
STARTING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MID WEEK. DESPITE A BIT OF
COLD ADVECTION, THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW ALLOW FOR
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS
TO NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, DESPITE BELOW AVERAGE
HEIGHTS ALOFT. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFTER AROUND 10Z TO 12Z, CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO LOWER TO 3-6KFT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
DUE TO DRY AIR AND A LLJ AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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