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FXUS62 KCAE 181800
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB COMBINED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S DUE TO CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT
IT WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE.
FOLLOWED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED LOWS ABOUT 60.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A WEDGE OF
COOL DRY AIR OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WHICH ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO A ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHICH RESULTS
IN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF
CAE AND OGB WILL AFFECT AGS/DNL INTO MID-AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST AS DRIER AIR
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS MOST SREF MEMBERS SUPPORTED VFR
CEILINGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WE FOLLOWED THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST. MIXING
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SUPPORTED BY
THE MOS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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