037
FXUS62 KCAE 162346
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING HOISTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING HOISTED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING, AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT AREA EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS OVER OUR
AREA HAVE DIMINISHED SOME WITH SUNSET, BUT STILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BETWEEN 10P AND 3A, WINDS WILL TURN QUICKLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO BETWEEN 8-13 MPH, AND
GUSTS WILL RETURN AND COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION,
SOME LIGHT RAINFALL IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP RELATIVELY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED RAIN IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THIS MOVING EASTWARD
AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT, A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER,
YIELDING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY (AT BEST) AND ONLY THE LOW 60S ON
SUNDAY. BOTH EFI FOR TEMPS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A COOL SIGNAL
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
ALSO, BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS, A LONGER DURATION LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD BE
CAUTIOUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST OVER THE LAKES
AT NIGHT. NEXT WEEK LOOKS BEAUTIFUL WITH LARGE DAILY DIURNAL
SPREADS OWING TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT FROM WHAT WE SAW EARLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE INTO THE NIGHT. AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION, WINDS
SHOULD PICK BACK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AFTER 07-10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT MAYBE OGB. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...73/PL
AVIATION...ND
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