764
FXUS62 KCAE 180541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY.
- 2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO START THE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY
OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE MODEST
WITH PWS STILL UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, JUST ANOTHER
ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPS APPROACHING THE MID 90S. RECORD
AT CAE IS 96F (SET BACK IN 1896!) AND AT AGS IS 91F (ALSO BACK
IN 1896). IT IS LIKELY THAT WE BREAK THE RECORD AT AGS BUT WE
PROBABLY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD AT CAE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO
START THE NEXT WEEK.
SOME CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE MODEST ALONG THE FRONT, WITH PWS PROBABLY BUMPING UP NORTH OF
1.2" ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, FORCING LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. AS A RESULT, THERE IS SOME
SKEPTICISM REGARDING OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN REALLY JUST DOESN'T YIELD PRECIP VERY OFTEN.
POPS ARE AROUND 30% RIGHT NOW BUT THEY HAVE FALLEN SINCE THE
FORECAST PACKAGE 24 HOURS AGO AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
CONTINUE LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY
ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.
WE'LL ALSO BE BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT ITS UNLIKELY THAT THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERLAPS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ELEVATE OUR ALREADY HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FROM THERE, THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
SIMPLE FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MON-
WED, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH OUR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR SC
COUNTIES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, SO PLEASE AVOID BURNING
ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT ANY WILDFIRES. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
EMERGING IN LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT POINT AT MORE A
MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE END OF THE
MONTH, SO LETS KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED AND HOPE THAT WE CAN GET
SOME MORE WET WEATHER IN HERE BY THEN!
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE BETTER MIXING TAKES HOLD BY MID MORNING,
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, AND THEN DO EXPECT TO SEE
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS BECOMING POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AT ALL LOCATIONS. GUSTS DIMINISH AT THAT
POINT, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. AS FOR
ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, NONE ARE ANTICIPATED. AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP ABOVE
5KFT, BUT THAT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUDS. WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WINDS, FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
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