619
FXUS62 KCAE 210614
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AMID A DRY AIRMASS.
- 2. A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AMID A DRY
AIRMASS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A DRY AIR
MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA, HIGH PROBABILITY OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INCREASED FIRE STARTS. WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE AREA AND THESE DAYS
MAY REQUIRE FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS. REGARDLESS OF THE ISSUANCE
OF THESE STATEMENTS, THE SC FORESTRY COMMISSION CONTINUES A BURN
BAN FOR SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THAT HAS
PERSISTED THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THIS
WEEKEND AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS
GENERALLY RISING TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL, THIS FAVORS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL STILL LIKELY
HAVE A WAYS TO GO TO BREAK THE DROUGHT AS ONLY A COUPLE GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY (AND WE
WILL NEED MORE THAN THAT). THE LONGER TERM PATTERN FAVORS
A MORE ACTIVE (WETTER) PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND
INTO EARLY MAY WITH TELECONECTIONS SUCH AS THE NAO, FAVORING
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS, KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST ONCE THE INVERSION MIXES OUT, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 10 KNOTS. A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY
SOME SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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