517
FXUS62 KCAE 241037
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC SMOKE IMPACTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC
SMOKE IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
A DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH SATELLITE PW ESTIMATES
AROUND 0.7" AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WITH PEAK HEATING
TODAY, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE WINDSPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR AN EXTENDED TIME TODAY TODAY, PEAK HEATING MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRONGER GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. THIS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE
OF THOSE LOW RH VALUES AND FUELS THAT CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS EACH
RAIN-FREE DAY PASSES, IS LIKELY GOING TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ENVIRONMENT. WE ALSO MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SMOKE IMPACTS FROM
FIRES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
AND HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SMOKE COULD SETTLE BACK INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES AIR QUALITY ALERT EXPIRED EARLIER THIS
EVENING, BUT THE SC FORESTRY COMMISSION CONTINUES A BURN BAN UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-5
DAYS WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. WHILE HREF
MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY, IT IS
LIKELY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
CHANCES WILL BE BETTER CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE CLOSER TO 1" BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THERE
WILL BE SOME UPPER SUPPORT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY INCREASES, AND A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT PARTICULARLY FOR NEXT WEEK IT
IS TOO SOON TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFIC ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF
WE RECEIVE SOME RAIN AND BRIEF RELIEF WITH ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS, THE
DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ANYTIME SOON. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES,
LESS THAN 20%, FOR 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1". SO, EXPECTING THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS
WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
SHIFT A BIT MORE WSW BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE MARGINALLY HIGHER
MOISTURE TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 8KFT, RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN UNLIKELY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE LINGERING WILDFIRE
SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND WHILE THERE IS A
BRIEF CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS, IT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...96
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