615  
FXUS62 KCAE 032345  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
745 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE  
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE  
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE AREA.  
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO  
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- ISOLATED STORMS AROUND THIS EVENING AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ACROSS  
THE REGION. NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS FILLING IN BEHIND THIS PWAT'S  
FALLING BELOW 1.25" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER PWAT'S,  
MAINLY EASTER OF I-95, WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT LARGELY  
FOLLOWS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH THE 1500+ ML CAPE AGAIN  
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, STEADILY WEAKENING TO THE  
NORTHWEST. AS SUCH, POP'S ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE  
AREA TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED  
IN THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS IS ALREADY PLAYING OUT, COVERAGE  
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THE SEVERE  
AND FLOOD THREAT IS STILL LOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY  
 
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PWAT  
VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WESTER  
MIDLANDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SUPPRESS  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED COVERAGE  
IS STILL EXPECTED, THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED  
TO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID  
90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM  
 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT DEVELOPING WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE  
FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT IS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM  
NORTHERN FL TO NC. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL IN UNCERTAINTY IN  
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LARGELY DETERMINE OUR WEATHER  
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. AT THIS POINT THERE IS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST  
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT THERE ARE ALSO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS  
THAT KEEP US COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING....  
 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE  
TERMINALS DURING THE LAST HOUR. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED  
THROUGH THE AUGUSTA AREA IMPACTING AGS/DNL BUT THESE SHOULD  
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE THIS  
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF  
REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY AT OGB FROM PATCHY RIVER  
FOG. WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE  
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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