952
FXUS62 KCAE 190051
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
851 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IN THE CSRA. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MILDER LOWS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT
MORE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 50S. RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, FORCING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CAMS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 15Z, THEN DECAYING A BIT AS THEY
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER PROBABILITIES, AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING, WITH SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 300 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CSRA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOUND. THE SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
EVENING ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT EXPECT SOME EVEN GREATER GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
WITH/BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. GREATER MIXING IS EXPECTED OVER
AREA LAKES DUE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80. COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER
THE EASTERN US LATE TUESDAY, WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE THEN IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ON MONDAY, RISE TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 25 KNOTS, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MIXING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, AFTER SUNRISE INCREASING
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A RESULT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY. RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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