871
FXUS62 KCAE 180010
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
710 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CALM, CLEAR, AND VERY DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS LEADING TO SHALLOW
MOISTURE INCREASES WE WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO OUR
CROSSOVER TEMPS OF AROUND TWENTY BUT WE SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 30S FOR OUR LOWS. BLENDED GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY BE
TOO WARM IN THESE SCENARIOS ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE HIGH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OUT, BUT TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH A SYSTEM PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JUST ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO TURN MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING MOISTURE SOME AS PWAT'S
APPROACH 1-1.10" TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY,
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BUT THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN
CURRENT CAM SOLUTIONS. SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE
MILD, IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN TO WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM
TOWARD THE NAFES 90TH PERCENTILE (AROUND 12-14C). WINDS SHOULD
ALSO BE OUT OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, AIDING IN SOME WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT, THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SOME INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOLID AGREEMENT IS SEEN WITH GUIDANCE THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LIKELY MOVES OVERHEAD WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER DAY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PHASING OF A TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EXISTS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ON BOARD WITH
THE SHARPER TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES, STEERING THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE FA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CANADIAN IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS HAS THE SHORTWAVE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
SLOWING ITS PROGRESS.
BLENDED GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP'S ENTERING THE
FA FRIDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND AND FOR START OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE COOLING SOME INTO THE
EARLY WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE TERMINALS BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. WINDS HAVE BECOME
CALM WITH SUNSET AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, EVEN WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AS CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20F (WHICH WE WON'T GET REMOTELY CLOSE
TO TONIGHT). WINDS INCREASE AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TOMORROW
MORNING, OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. INCREASING MOISTURE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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