138
FXUS62 KCAE 040539
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN DEVELOPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE MIDLANDS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN CURRENT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE ACTUALLY RISING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THE WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. RADAR
AT THIS TIME SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM, WITH THE HEAVIEST RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTH OF JACKSON, MS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HOUSTON,
TX. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS SO LIGHT RETURNS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN
OUR REGION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-1" RANGE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HI-
RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INCREASINGLY DRY MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLING, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHESTERFIELD AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE
ALOFT, REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WHILE ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
BRIEF, THERE COULD BE SOME BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING THERE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE STORM UNFOLDS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE.
UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL 12Z THEN RESTRICTIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WIDESPREAD HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. CIGS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATE DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DURING THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL BEFORE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 12Z-14Z AND A BIT LATER AT
OGB. RAIN EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT
THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY AND WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES AND
THIS MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RELAXING A BIT AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. RETURNING DRY AIR SHOULD BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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