734
FXUS62 KCAE 231430
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
930 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COMING WEEK WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
FROM EARLY TO MID-WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WILL BE DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD
INTO THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES HAS YIELDED SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA BUT THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DESPITE NEAR
FULL SUN, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50 SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER
30S IN THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA) ON SUNDAY PROMOTING WARM, MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO PWATS RISING TO OVER 1 INCH ON SUNDAY EVENING. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FA
DURING THE DAY. NEARLY ALL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE RAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CSRA THROUGH SUNSET. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD BE IN THE SC PIEDMONT AND NEARER THE NC/SC BORDER AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING ON MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS THE FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS OUT OF THE FA, WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK.
WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US MID-WEEK.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. IN EITHER CASE, UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK IT WILL
BE REPLACED BY SURFACE RIDGING. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 8 KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 08Z, WITH NO IMPACTS ON ANY TAF
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY POSE SOME RESTRICTIONS. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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