213
FXUS62 KCAE 250735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED. AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN APPROACHING, MOSTLY DRY, FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
LIKELY STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN DRAG OUT AND STALL ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A DIVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND PRODUCE
SOME BROAD WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THIS STALLED FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY STAY TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND STALLED FRONT DIPS SOUTH, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGHOUT THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD TRAINING SETUP FOR
EFFICIENT HEAVY SHOWERS WITH DEEP FLOW PARALLEL TO THE DRIVING
SURFACE FRONT, PWAT'S TO AROUND 1.5", AND SATURATED CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PROFILES. THE NAEFS AND EC MEMBERS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1.0" ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY, NOW ROUGHLY 70% CHANCE ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE EC EFI. LIKE THE EFI SHOWS, THE HIGH
END 90TH PERCENTILE IS NOW OVER 2.5" THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP FAVORS THESE HIGH END AMOUNTS, BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL OVER A VERY NARROW SWATH.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ AROUND 2 KFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS MAKING LLWS CRITERIA BORDERLINE.
SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25
KTS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS BUT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BKN CIRRUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME
GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE DECK THROUGH THE DAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
REMAIN LIKELY. LLWS CRITERIA MAY BE MET TONIGHT AS ANOTHER 30 TO
35 KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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