866
FXUS62 KCAE 192242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS WEEK. A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
RIDGING WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED AND BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
DRY AND WARM MID-LEVELS WILL PREVENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A FEW CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM UPSTREAM SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S. FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT, LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE WILL BE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGING. CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SEABREEZE
FRONT PLUS A LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL, WITH GENERAL UPPER RIDGING AND
LITTLE MOISTURE WE BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOW.
THE ARW ALONG WITH THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE HEATING AND DRY
AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AIDING DOWNDRAFTS INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD.
THE MODELS INDICATE GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOME TROUGHING, MAINLY THERMAL. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING. THE PATTERN INDICATES HOT CONDITIONS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUPPRESSED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH POPS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST, WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND. A DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR OVERNIGHT. A S TO SW LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG, BUT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS
COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, MAY PROVIDE SOME
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE FRONT, AND NEAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG A
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ANY CONVECTION MONDAY WOULD BE AFTER 18Z
AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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