614
FXUS62 KCHS 091740
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO DISCUSSION FOR KEY MESSAGE 1. THE
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DISCUSSION IN THE MARINE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION WEDNESDAY, HELPING A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WITH FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (40-50%) LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECIP INTENSITY REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE
FRONT, WITH LATEST NBM PROBS FOR 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING 7 AM
THURSDAY BEING 20-40% FOR AMOUNTS >0.10" AND ONLY 10-15% FOR AMOUNTS
>0.25". ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A POTENT MID-LVL LOW PASSING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE WEEKEND WHILE THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM-SECTORED
IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND/OR A COLD FRONT TRACKING OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL QUIT A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT PRECIP COVERAGE APPEARS HIGHER (60-80%) WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST
ONCE WARM-SECTORING TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FORECAST DETAILS,
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS WITH A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. IT'LL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
FOR THE CHARLESTON WATERS AND THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION, THEN
PREVAILS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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