788  
FXUS62 KCHS 141122  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY COLD  
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE  
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH IT'S PERIPHERY  
REACHING INTO OUR AREA. THE HIGH WILL BRING OUR AREA DRY  
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE  
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND  
VICINITY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FAR INLAND, TO THE LOWER  
60S NEAR THE COAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
NO NOTABLE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL LARGELY BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT, POSITIONED BETWEEN A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A LOW PASSING OVER AND OFF  
THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL  
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE, ALTHOUGH A DRY COLD FRONT WILL  
PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS ARE AT 0% FOR  
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL  
TREND ON THE COOLER SIDE FOLLOWING FROPA FOR THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN WE'VE SEEN IN  
AWHILE, WITH SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND,  
THEN EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST, BUT FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR  
LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES  
BACK IN THE FORECAST, BUT STILL ONLY 20% POPS ARE ADVERTISED AS  
IT'S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE  
SHOULD RETURN THEREAFTER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
12Z TAFS: VFR.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR  
NORTHWEST, WITH IT'S PERIPHERY REACHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  
WINDS SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT, THEN INCREASE AS TIME  
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE  
NOW HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM  
STARING AT MIDNIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE  
SOME ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS PICK BACK UP TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR  
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE OUTER  
GEORGIA WATERS WHERE 5-7 FOOT SEAS ARE FORECAST. A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE WEEK  
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RISK FOR  
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
THERE IS A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE  
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG THE  
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS, AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE UP TIDAL DEPARTURES. CURRENT FORECAST  
KEEPS TIDE LEVELS ON THE LOWER END OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.  
THE RISK SHOULD BE LOWER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE, AND THE WIND  
DIRECTION BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.  
 
 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR AMZ374.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...ETM  
LONG TERM...ETM  
AVIATION...ETM  
MARINE...ETM  
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