638
FXUS62 KCHS 240636
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
236 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF A 590 DM H5 RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A SECONDARY CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN FL TODAY. HOWEVER, SW TO NE ORIENTED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO TRACK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC/GA TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY TRACKING
ONSHORE.
BY MID DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SBCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG, WITH POCKETS OF 2500 J/KG. STEADY
SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN DRIFTING INLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND HREF INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS
16Z. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS,
HOWEVER, CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW STORM MOTIONS, GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS. GIVEN PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND MODERATE INSTABILITY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS INLAND OF I-95. IN FACT, THE 0Z HREF
HIGHLIGHTS INLAND GA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A 30% OF 3"/HR AND A 70% OF 1"/HR RAINFALL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DEVELOP HIGH ECHO TOPS,
COLLAPSING WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF SE GA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MEMORIAL DAY: CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY,
WITH COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS, THEN COVERAGE
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST STRENGTHENS,
CONTINUING OUR WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING DAILY ALONG AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RECORD HIGH MINIMUM (WARM OVERNIGHT LOW)
TEMPERATURES.
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS MAY TRACK ONSHORE FOR DEVELOP ALONG A EARLY FORMING SEA
BREEZE AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, HIGHLIGHTED WITH A MENTION OF
VCSH BETWEEN 12-14Z. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HREF INDICATED THAT
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR,
PERHAPS JUST INLAND, OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO 5 TO 10 KTS. EACH TAF WILL FEATURE A PROB30
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD, FAVORING SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SLIGHT INCREASES IN WAVE HEIGHTS MAY OCCUR
THROUGH TODAY, PEAKING OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/8S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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