496
FXUS62 KCHS 141957
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS SE GA
AS TEMPERATURES CROSSED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THESE STORMS
OVER INLAND GA WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BROAD SFC TROUGH. KCLX
SHOWED THAT THE SEA BREEZE WAS STILL NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE INLAND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, THE
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
THIS PROCESS SHOULD YIELD A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS,
GENERALLY ALONG THE I- 95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH TO BERKELEY
COUNTY. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 4000
J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 600-800 J/KG. IN ADDITION, PW
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES. STORMS WITHIN THIS VERY HOT AND HUMID SHOULD DEVELOP
VERY STRONG AND TALL UPDRAFTS, WITH CORE HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND
40 KFT. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PEAK AROUND 30% WITHIN 25 NM OF ANY
GIVEN POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
COULD BE NEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
HIGHLIGHTING ANY EXPECTED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY TIME
WINDOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4 TO 7 PM
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN. ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY.
A CLASSIC EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE WHILE MID-
LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERIODICALLY INTERACTS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY. LOW-LVL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
MAINTAINING A RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIMILAR TO LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9 TO 2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD
(NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JUNE). THIS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG AMID PEAK HEATING. MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 5.5-6.0
C/KM, SUGGESTING PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND EACH DAY
AND COLLIDE WITH OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, YIELDING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY TO MID-WEEK, BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL
LIKELY ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY, AND THEN PUSH
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY EVENING. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING NEAR THE COASTLINE BEFORE EXPANDING MORE
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS MAXIMIZE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS
BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING.
BASED OFF OF THE LATEST TIDAL DEPARTURES AND LOCAL CLIMO TOOL,
WE WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON AND
COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM THIS EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH DAY ALONG WITH TODAY'S LUNAR
PERIGEE (JUNE 14TH) AND NEW MOON (JUNE 15TH) SHOULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES ABOVE 1/2 FT TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE
LATEST TWL FORECAST CALLS FOR 7.0 - 7.2 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS EVENING, AND 7.0 - 7.2 FT MLLW ARE
POSSIBLE DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES MONDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES PEAK AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTLINES.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, KCLX AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DETECTED A SEA
NEAR KSAV, WITH SOME DEVELOPING CU NEAR KCHS AND KJZI. THE TAFS WILL
FEATURE A TEMPO DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
OF MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH OFF THE
SC COAST THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY REQUIRING SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-24 KTS AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THERE COULD
BE THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND A LINGERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 14
KCHS: 99/2010
KCXM: 97/1981
JUNE 15
KCHS: 98/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 14
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010
JUNE 15
KCHS: 80/2010
JUNE 18
KCHS: 78/2015
JUNE 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ149-150.
MARINE...NONE.
DENNIS/NED
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