156
FXUS62 KCHS 100647
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
247 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AND
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
TODAY, THE AXIS OF 596DM H5 RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT WEAK VORT MAXES MAY
TRACK ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE SEA BREEZE FORMS,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SBCAPE MAY RANGE
BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG, POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA
BREEZE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DCAPE VALUES MAY
EXCEED 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE SEA
BREEZE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HREF UPDRAFT
STRENGTH PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO 10-30% OF 30 M/S OVER BERKELEY
AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES. IT IS POSSIBLE A COLLAPSING WATER-LOADED
UPDRAFT COULD YIELD A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY: A SFC TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
INTO GA. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOWS AN OLD MCV SOURCED FROM NORTHERN GA
CONVECTION REACHING SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SFC
TROUGH TO THE WEST SHOULD DRAW THE SEA BREEZE INLAND A BIT EARLIER
THAN TODAY. POPS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER, AND ADJACENT WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT DCAPE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR
TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS MAY RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FEATURE HIGH LFC WITH AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, DCAPE VALUES MAY PEAK
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. AI CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECAST
PRODUCTS INDICATE A 15-30% CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS
INLAND SC/GA COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MIXING AND RIDGING
ALOFT MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES SOAR INTO THE 100-110 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK
AND UPWARDS OF 115 LATE IN THE WEEK. THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). GIVEN
THE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL BE FEW INSTANCES OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE 100-105 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY,
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF MOMENT OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 108 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S BY
MID WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 70S WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING
HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE HEAT WAVE.
HIGHS ON EACH DAY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A BRIEF
MOMENT OF TOUCHING 100 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WEST OF I-95 WILL LIKELY REACH 105-108 (HEAT ADVISORY) WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95 REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
6Z TAFS: AT THE SFC, RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE WSW ARE FORECAST BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE, SHIFTING FROM
THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE SEA BREEZE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE KCHS TAF WILL FEATURE A TEMPO FROM 20-24Z FOR -TSRA.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS BY MID-EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
TODAY, SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEK. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THIS WEEK, PERSISTING INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 2 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES THIS WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: WHILE ELEVATED TIDAL CYCLES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEE AND NEW MOON, THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES LOW,
LIMITING THE OVERALL COASTAL FLOOD THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 11:
KCHS: 98/1968
KCXM: 97/1954
AUGUST 12:
KCHS: 98/1957
KCXM: 98/1998
KSAV: 100/1999
AUGUST 13:
KCHS: 100/1995
KCXM: 98/1913
KSAV: 98/2010
AUGUST 14:
KCHS: 102/1995
KSAV: 102/1925
AUGUST 15:
KCHS: 96/2023
KSAV: 100/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 10:
KCHS: 80/2007
KSAV: 79/2024
AUGUST 11:
KCHS: 79/1983
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 78/1878
AUGUST 12:
KCHS: 79/1999
KSAV: 80/1878
AUGUST 13:
KCHS: 81/2023
KSAV: 81/2023
AUGUST 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023
AUGUST 15:
KCHS: 78/1995
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1995
AUGUST 16:
KCHS: 78/2019
KSAV: 78/2019
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/NED
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