788
FXUS62 KCHS 141122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH IT'S PERIPHERY
REACHING INTO OUR AREA. THE HIGH WILL BRING OUR AREA DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND
VICINITY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FAR INLAND, TO THE LOWER
60S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO NOTABLE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL LARGELY BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, POSITIONED BETWEEN A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND A LOW PASSING OVER AND OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE, ALTHOUGH A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS ARE AT 0% FOR
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND ON THE COOLER SIDE FOLLOWING FROPA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN WE'VE SEEN IN
AWHILE, WITH SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND,
THEN EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST, BUT FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR
LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK IN THE FORECAST, BUT STILL ONLY 20% POPS ARE ADVERTISED AS
IT'S UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETURN THEREAFTER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST, WITH IT'S PERIPHERY REACHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT, THEN INCREASE AS TIME
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE
NOW HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
STARING AT MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS PICK BACK UP TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WHERE 5-7 FOOT SEAS ARE FORECAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RISK FOR
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS, AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE UP TIDAL DEPARTURES. CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS TIDE LEVELS ON THE LOWER END OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
THE RISK SHOULD BE LOWER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE, AND THE WIND
DIRECTION BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM
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