314
FXUS62 KCHS 262330
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A MULTI-DAY COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- 2) ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS INTO MID-WEEK ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES.
- 3) DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
.KEY MESSAGE 1: A MULTI-DAY COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO EARLY
THIS WEEK DUE TO TODAY'S FULL MOON (10/26) AND THE LUNAR
PERIGEE (10/28). NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAVE DRIVEN
AN INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR AND PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THREAT OF AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
THIS EVENING: TIDE LEVELS ARE ON TRACK TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SC AND
GA COAST THIS EVENING.
REST OF THIS WEEK: COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THESE CYCLES, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY RELAX AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, LEADING TO
LOWERING TIDAL DEPARTURES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS INTO MID-WEEK ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES.
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND ONGOING
WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
ALL SC/GA BEACHES INTO MID WEEK. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RESULT,
AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE MID-LATE WEEK AS LONG-PERIOD SWELL DECREASES
AND WINDS WEAKEN BEYOND PEAK ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND.
A PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH UPPER
LVL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LVL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRETCH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING A WEDGE TO HOLD IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO MID WEEK. THE WEDGE WILL SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AND FULL DAYS OF SUN SUPPORT A
MODIFYING AIRMASS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 INLAND. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE NIGHTS, BUT WILL ALSO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO COME TO AN END LATE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADVANCING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV DAILY THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED INLAND/TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS TO 25-30 KT TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINOR
SURGING OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS 5-8 FT NEARSHORE AND 9-12 FT OFFSHORE
LINGER, BUT ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
(OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR) AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, BUT A FAIRLY ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK FOR NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT. NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS INTO LATE
WEEK WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 5-8
FT, BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
WEAKEN/RELAX ACROSS LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ENDING EARLY WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ148>151.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ384.
CPM/DPB
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