663
FXUS62 KCHS 102327
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 11/00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THROUGH TONIGHT: ALOFT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHILE A
SUBTLE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH WEST-
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. MORNING LIGHT RAIN HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND THE OVERALL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE EVENING IS FOR
MINIMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
PEAK IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
BROAD FORCING OR SOURCE OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SOME INSTABILITY
COULD POOL. HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY
WITH NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. OVERNIGHT, AN UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY: A SHIFT FROM ZONAL FLOW TO BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP INTO
MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BROAD
TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPLIT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FEATURES POPS 50-60% ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z 3KM
NAM, NBM, AND RRFS, WHICH DEPICTS CONVECTION OF ALMOST A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN AND POP-UP IN NATURE. THE 12Z HRRR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION, ACTUALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY AND ONLY
DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS LESS
LIKELY, GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, IT SHOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY
DISREGARDED.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION, WITH PWATS REACHING ~1.5" WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL ALLOW THE SUNSHINE TO REACH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION, AIDING IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ML CAPE COULD REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THIS IS REASONABLE. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER SOME HAIL OR EVEN A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK IS ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COULD
LEAD TO SOME ROTATION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
11/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: THERE IS A RISK FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THERE COULD
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES REPORTED BY THE AWOS/ASOS AT
TIMES AT KJZI AND KSAV (BEFORE THE OBSERVER COMES ON), BUT NO
MEANINGFUL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF FOG.
THE RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS WILL INCREASE MID-LATE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT KJZI AND KCHS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
AND A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THERE
IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT, TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE VARIOUS HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS. PROB30S
FOR 3-4SM TSRA BR WERE INTRODUCED AT KCHS AND KJZI FROM 20 TO
21Z THROUGH 00Z TO TREND. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT KSAV SO NO
MENTION OF TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS. VFR WILL RETURN LATER
TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. A MODEST SEA BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN 10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN
OVERNIGHT, 5-10 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT,
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST THE INNER WATERS.
GALE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE.
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS
ALONG WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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