059
FXUS62 KCHS 292335
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 2) A DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OR MCS WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN ZONAL H%
FLOW, CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SHOULD YIELD A LARGE FIELD OF 800-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH 40-45 KTS
OF SFC-H5 SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS EASTWARD,
WITH HREF INDICATING THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY EXHIBIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH OF 20 M/S. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HREF INDICATE THAT A
RAGGED LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT MCS WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
JUST AFTER 6Z, REACHING THE CHS TRI-COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS ON PACE TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH, WITH SOME SWATHS ACROSS THE I-16 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH MAY TOTAL
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE REMAIN
CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE COLD POOL, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLY DAMAGING TREES AND
POWERLINES. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT
MAY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, PRIMARILY ACROSS SE GA.
CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS, LEADING TO A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR WIND GUSTS. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE GA/SC WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER SHOULD
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD YIELD A BIT COOLER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 80
DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 1.5-1.7" BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
NOTED PER REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA SATURDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST-EAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW MOVES AWAY, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND EVENTUALLY
OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT A
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITHIN
A REGION OF ENHANCED UVVS INDUCED BY A DUAL-JET STRUCTURE BETWEEN
THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT TO
THE SOUTH. WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL SETUP IS STILL IN
QUESTION, BUT 29/13Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF RAIN ARE RUNNING
AROUND 75% AND 20-35% FOR >2" FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE CURTAILED WITH THE REGION LIKELY REMAINING WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE COLD SECTOR, BUT A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING NOTED ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAFS: SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE THIS BOUNDARY TRAVERSE ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE, HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
THUNDER WITH TEMPOS BETWEEN 9-12Z, WITH TS THEN FOLLOWING BETWEEN 12-
14Z. WHILE CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC, WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
MARINE
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO WEST DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A MCS SOURCED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY REMAIN JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE
REMAIN CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE COLD POOL, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, A FEW SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS
PASSES, WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST, PEAKING AROUND 20 KTS.
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT.
THERE IS A RISK FOR WINDS TO REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION. GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS LOOK TO PEAK 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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