958
FXUS62 KCHS 290247
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR ONGOING TRENDS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
- 2) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
TONIGHT: OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THESE VALUES WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS AT THE
LOCAL CLIMATE SITES, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MONDAY: THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS, NC. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS FORECAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 103-110 RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95, IS POSSIBLE. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY IS WITH
THE STALLED FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST. WITH THESE
FEATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS FORECAST, WITH POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE.
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT PEAK HEATING - YIELDING
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS JUNCTURE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY WILL NOT BE ISSUED AND THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE REASSESSED WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEK,
INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST STORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD AGAIN REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WHICH
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-110 RANGE. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR GA COAST ON TUESDAY, THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EVEN
THOUGH POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH, ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS THIS
TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY WITH THESE TEMPERATURES, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE, ALONG WITH HAVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT CHS/JZI TERMINALS TEMPORARILY THROUGH 04-05Z MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT ENTERING THE REGION. PROB30
-TSRA GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED AT CHS/JZI BETWEEN 18-21Z MONDAY
AND AT SAV BETWEEN 19-23Z AS A RESULT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE LIKELY POST FROPA MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 3-4 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS. ALSO OF NOTE, THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP/PERSIST
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING. THE LARGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SC WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: EXPECT WEAK WINDS ON MONDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN,
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT WINDS FROM THE NE OR E
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD STAY 4 FT OR LESS. NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 99/1998
KSAV: 101/1959
JULY 3:
KCHS: 98/2019
JULY 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KSAV: 80/1885
JULY 3:
KCHS: 78/2016
JULY 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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