576
FXUS62 KCHS 030600
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY,
STALLING JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST CONUS
WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH FROM CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON, PLACING A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WHILE TROUGHING
PERSISTS WELL OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DESPITE A NORTHEAST
WIND, AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. 1000-850 MB LVL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TONIGHT: THE MID-UPPER LOW SHOULD PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, SUPPORTING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT. AT THE SFC, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES, SUPPORTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND REMAIN LIGHT/CALM AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HELP
OFFSET THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN, SFC TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN GENERAL,
LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. A FAIRLY WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: LATEST OBS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS INDICATED
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. SEAS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE, BUT RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS UNTIL
6 AM THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS EARLY MORNING, BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE, BUT IS LIKELY TO RELAX LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING MORNING HOURS, BEFORE TRENDING WEAKER THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE, STARTING BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT ACROSS OUTER
WATERS THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT ACROSS
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING
CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK
THOUGH THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES SHOULD START TO COME DOWN TODAY
OR THURSDAY AS THE NE FLOW TURNS TO THE SE AND WEAKENS. WE
COULD COME CLOSE TO 7.0 FT MLLW AT CHARLESTON FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO
CONCERNS FOR FT PULASKI GA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL
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