048
FXUS62 KCHS 262318
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY.
- 2) DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR LIKELY SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED.
- 3) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- 4) CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 588 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
850 HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 15C WITH A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED. WHILE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, A VERY WARM DAY IS LIKELY WITH HIGHS
POISED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES COULD BE
CHALLENGED WITH KCHS AND KSAV THE MOST LIKELY TO FALL. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH THE BEACHES LIKELY ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PROPAGATE INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR LIKELY SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED.
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EVENT COULD BE
SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS GIVEN MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NBM, TEND TO BE TOO
WET IN POST FRONTAL REGIMES, ESPECIALLY WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE INLAND
WITH 25-35 MPH AT THE COAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 18-28% RANGE, POSSIBLY A TAD HIGHER RIGHT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE/PARALLEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RH AND
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS OWING TO THE WORSENING DROUGHT SITUATION
SUGGESTS DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. STATE, MILITARY AND FEDERAL LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED SOME EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR WITH CONTROLLED BURNS AND A FEW WILDFIRES OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS (MAINLY ONCE RH DROPS BELOW 60%) AND WITH THE
SITUATION LIKELY TO GET WORSEN SATURDAY, THE FIRE SITUATION
COULD BECOME RATHER VOLATILE WITH HIGH-IMPACT EVEN IF THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH DO NOT PERFECTLY ALIGN.
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AS WELL AS STATE
AND FEDERAL PARTNERS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT REFER TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY
COMMISSIONS FOR ANY BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD
GET HAZARDOUS ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH WINDS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WAVE ACTION COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH WAVES REACHING 2-3 FT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 4: CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COUPLED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW HINTS IN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SOURCES
THAT FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS TO ATTEMPT TO PUSH ONSHORE. THIS
SCENARIO COULD BRING FOG AND STRATUS INTO KJZI FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT
THE TAF'S VFR AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION OVERNIGHT. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY, WITH A LATE DAY SEA
BREEZE POTENTIALLY TURNING WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. KJZI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS SEA BREEZE SHIFT AROUND
19Z, AND CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT KCHS. THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT MAKE
IT TO KSAV AT ALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KT.
MARINE
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR GALES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A TYPICAL PINCHING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS.
PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS COULD REACH
AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT NEARSHORE AND 30-35 KT
OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS 40-45 KT OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY
IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, PEAKING 6-9 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
9-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6 FT. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, EXCEPT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
HIGH SURF: BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 5-6 FT ALONG PARTS
OF THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ330.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ374.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page