285
FXUS62 KCHS 141817
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
217 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TARGET TO PEAK NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH (94) FOR THE DATE AS ALREADY BEEN
TIED AT THE CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND HAS A SOLID
CHANCE OF FALLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RECORD HIGH AT
THE SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGED. THE
RECORD FOR DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOKS SAFE. DEWPOINTS POOLING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S NEAR THE LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COULD
YIELD HEAT INDICES 104-107 RANGE. A FEW SPOTS COULD POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY REACH 108-109 BEFORE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
FILTERS IN. SPATIAL LIMITATIONS AND SHORT TEMPORAL DURATIONS
SUGGEST A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
COULD POP JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE AS WELL, BUT
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.
AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT,
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 60S NEAR
THE COASTLINE.
AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THIS, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY
MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTIES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS.
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL INCREASE TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE TIDE WOULD NEED ~1 FT
DEPARTURE TO REACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS OF 7 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COULD BE
ACHIEVED WITH LEVELS PEAKING IN THE 7.0-7.2 FT MLLW RANGE. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COASTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
14/18Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 15/18Z. A ROGUE SHOWER OR TSTM
COULD POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACT
PROBABILITIES TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS LOOK TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNRISE AT KCHS AND KJZI AND MID-MORNING
AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
CHANCE OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE WATERS
TONIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE LEG WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 5-6 AM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE WATERS ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RAMP UP ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-32 KTS ACROSS ALL THE MARINE
ZONES. IT'LL GET CLOSE TO GALES ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS AND
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN THE FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING WELL INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
SURGE TO 4-7 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE DECREASING
TO 3-5 FT OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MORE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WINDS FALL
TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND SEAS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WITH ELEVATED SEAS TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES TOMORROW (9/15) AND A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. BEACHGOERS SHOULD SWIM NEAR
A LIFEGUARD AND HEED LOCAL BEACH PATROL GUIDANCE.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GEORGIA
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY (9/16) WITH A MODERATE RISK ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 14:
KCHS: 94/1991
KCXM: 94/1938
KSAV: 96/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ360.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ364-384.
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