756
FXUS62 KCHS 311816
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
216 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH A RISK
FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH
A RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD
AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.
REST OF TODAY: THE TROUGHING ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IN RESIDENCE OVER
THE EAST COAST HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH WPC ANALYZING A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ZERO AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. ANY STORM THAT IS
RATHER STATIONARY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STRONG STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
REST OF THIS WEEK: MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN GA MID-WEEK, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-16 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS EARLY WEEK, BEGINNING A WARM-UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. ON TUESDAY, THE REGION WILL START TO
SLIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEAK H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SIMILAR HEAT/HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS. HEADING INTO LATE WEEK A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT, SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPS
INTO THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION
WITH MID-UPPER 70 DEWPTS COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF
THE TERMINALS, THEREFORE NO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN INCLUDED. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME GROUND FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER NO IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SAV
TERMINAL. GREATER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY SAV) WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND MID-LVL
ENERGY PASSING NEARBY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED (10-15 KT) ALONG THE COAST AS DAILY SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP, THEN SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS MID-WEEK (LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) WITH SFC
TROUGHING AND H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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