689
FXUS62 KCHS 130528
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
THE COLD FRONT AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION WAS LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN TURNS
WESTWARD AND IS FOUND ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-16 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA.
THIS FEATURE WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOCAL COUNTIES
BY DAYBREAK. UNTIL THEN, IT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T-STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BULK OF CONVECTION
THOUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THAT WE'RE ALREADY
EXPERIENCING FOG AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, AND
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING IT AS CONTINUING, WE HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
AND WET GROUNDS. THERE IS ENOUGH COOL AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TO DROP MIN TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND,
70-73F NEAR AND ALONG THE SHORELINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE OR WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING,
LIKELY STALLING OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTH, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW COULD
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE, BUT IT SHOULD BE WELL ENOUGH
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE INLAND TO MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT MID-AUGUST DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND HELPS SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION.
COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW MID-AUGUST NORMALS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND KJZI AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
KSAV BY AROUND 08Z. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF IFR
OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR. WE'LL WILL AMEND IF THAT
BECOMES NECESSARY.
VFR WILL RETURN FOR LATE MORNING AND BEYOND. KSAV HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND COVERAGE IS
SO SMALL, WE OPTED NOT TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
OVERNIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS, REACHING INTO THE GEORGIA
WATERS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
BE SW OR W AT 15 KT OR LESS, WHILE TURNING TO THE NW AND N AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET THROUGHOUT. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A SHARP WATCH OUT FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG DRIFTING INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT ODDS FAVOR THERE
BEING TOO MUCH MIXING, SO WE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INLAND. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL TURN BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE VICINITY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page