435
FXUS62 KCHS 121114
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
614 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS REMOVED AND THE OLD KEY MESSAGE 2
DETAILING THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM BECAME THE NEW KEY MESSAGE 1.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW TRIES
TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WHILE MODEL
VARIABILITY STILL EXIST CONCERNING THE OVERALL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET TIME. THUS, SHOULD SEE LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY, BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES WARM-
SECTORED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AS BROAD WAA BUILDS OVERHEAD. THESE SHOWERS
THEN LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD (70-90%) HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 80-90%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 0.5" AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 1"
WITHIN A 24-HR PERIOD. WPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS SENTIMENT,
AS THE REGION HAS BEEN PLACED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT, CAN'T RULE OUT
SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING, SHOULD SEE LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE
INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SPEEDS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATER IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL COME DOWN
ACCORDINGLY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL COME FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. WINDS
COULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE ON SUNDAY AS
A RESULT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS COULD OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW AND
ITS TRACK, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
BUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/SST
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