915
FXUS62 KCHS 122347
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- 2) BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US TODAY WITH
DEEP DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS
UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90. WE COULD
EASILY FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY COLD
FRONT, ONLY SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS H85 TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MOULTRIE COOL FROM 17C AT 0Z SAT TO 8C BY 0Z SUN. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURE WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SAT, WITH
HIGHS RANGING AROUND 70 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30
MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF A 1037 MB HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER VA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SW
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTH WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN COOL LLVL THICKNESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE, LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG
THE COAST. SOME AREAS ARE EXPECTED SEE THEIR COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY MAY.
AS INLAND SFC RIDGING CONTINUES, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LINGERING COOL LLVL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
LIMIT HEATING ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS SE GA. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OVER
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
SHOULD WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER SUNDAY'S READINGS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
13/00Z TAFS:
VFR THROUGH 14/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL, FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED WINDS, GALES POSSIBLE, AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KCXM: 86/2014
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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