390
FXUS62 KCHS 070603
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
103 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GET REPLACED BY BROAD
RIDGING SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS AN AREA FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS. MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP
YIELD A VERY WARM AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE SC
MIDLANDS AND JUST INTO THE SC LOWCOUNTRY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT, WITH LOWS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S TO THE
SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SMATTERING OF LOW STRATUS
AND FOG AROUND THE AREA, GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO OF NOTE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
WITH A LONGER FETCH POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
MARINE FOG ALONG THE COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN FOG AND STRATUS
ISSUES ALONG THE BEACHES AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND EVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF
FOG, BUT WORTH WATCHING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION YIELDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALLOW FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ON FRIDAY! IT'S VERY POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COASTLINE WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE
RECENT SSTS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
QUIET. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN VERY MILD FOR JANUARY WITH TEMPS
STAYING ABOVE 50S.
SATURDAY: THIS IS WHERE THE PATTERN CHANGES AS ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALSO,
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE IT'LL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL AS IT'LL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS. IT SEEMS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT, FAVORING
THE MACHINE LEARNING MODEL SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE
STRENGTH OF UPPER-LVL RIDGING COULD BE A BIT UNDER-FORECASTED IN
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SLOW-DOWN, THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT NOW WITH
30-40% POPS NOTED. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WON'T BE MUCH OF A
RAIN-MAKER, IT'LL BE FAIRLY WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO
20-22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS
TEMPS. REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND LOW 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. YET AGAIN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
DEWPOINTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS. ON SUNDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A FAIRLY NICE DAY. THEREAFTER, THE TEMPS.
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. THERE IS MORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT THE FOG CHANCES AND MAKE
STRATUS MORE PROBABLE. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR AN
AREA OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH GA TO EXPAND INTO THE
KSAV AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TAF ADVERTISES MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 08Z, WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR FROM 09-13Z. CEILINGS
COULD ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT KCHS AND KJZI, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER
AND WE INCLUDE THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11-14Z. STRATUS
SHOULD MIX OUT AND LIFT BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON SAT.
NIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15
KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE, DIMINISHING A BIT TO 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, 5-10 KNOTS EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
2-3 FEET TODAY, DROPPING OFF TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT. ONE FORECAST
ISSUE TO TAKE NOTE OF IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND BEING OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY EVENING, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IT, SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE WATERS, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST ON
THURSDAY. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LVL TROUGH, SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIGHT BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
PERIOD, BEFORE A SWELL SURGES INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED IN
THE NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA, NEARSHORE GEORGIA, AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE ENHANCED
WINDS AND SEAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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