844
FXUS62 KCHS 310223
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
LATE THIS EVENING: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LONG SINCE MOVED OFF THE
COAST AND HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS POISED TO
ENTER THE FORECAST AREA SOON, AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND, AND WE
COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY: NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT, MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WARMEST ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
TO UPPER 60S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NBM HAS
VERY LOW AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE REGION AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH, WHICH ADMITTEDLY MATCHES UP WITH WHAT THE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL CYCLES.
MONDAY: THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE MAY SPARK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AS WE ARE UNDER THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 20 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY, THOUGH WELL BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE, NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
LATE THIS EVENING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICKLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 11PM THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL REACH 20 KT, EXCEPT
FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOME 25 KT
GUSTS WILL OCCUR. AN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE MARGINAL, SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF A SCA IS WARRANTED. SEAS WILL PEAK NO MORE
THAN 4-5 FEET.
SATURDAY WILL SEE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE
WATERS AT UP TO 20 KNOTS. WHILE WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THE
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY,
MARINERS SHOULD CHECK BACK BEFORE HEADING OUT AS THE FORECAST
MAY FAVOR STRONGER WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THEY BECOME
WESTERLY.
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WEAK, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVES OF 1 TO
2 FEET EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BREEZY WINDS.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY: OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, NO MARINE
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT
MARINE...APT/BRS
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