569
FXUS62 KCHS 062349
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS AND KEY MESSAGES WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- 2) UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK LINGERS INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WAVES OF VORTICITY PASS THROUGH ALOFT. THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
TRENDS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE TWO WAVES OF CONVECTION; ONE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SECONDARY AREA POSSIBLY MOVING
THROUGH ALONG AND/OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ITSELF LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL
BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, BUT
THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE HEAVILY MODULATED
BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL
IT END QUICK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RECOVERY PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE VARIOUS CAMS REMAINS MIXED ON THIS
POTENTIAL WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COULD MATERIALIZE ROUGHLY
ALONG/EAST OF A GLENNVILLE-SAVANNAH METRO-BEAUFORT LINE WHICH
MAY SUPPORT A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER MAXIMA. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING MODELS,
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE CHANCES FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IS THE
HIGHEST.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED, MULTI-CELLUAR CLUSTERS THAT CAN FORM; HOWEVER, A LOW-
END TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) IN THE
DAY 2 WFO GUIDANCE OUTLOOK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. IF THERE IS
A MORE DEFINITIVE TREND FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY TO REALIZED, THEN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) MAY BE INTRODUCED IN LATER PERIODS,
MOST LIKELY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK LINGERS INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
THURSDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS. THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE AT
ANY PARTICULAR HOUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ALBEIT LIGHT.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH AFTERNOON ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, ONLY
RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10-0.50", BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE
AS MUCH AS 1-2" GIVEN THE EXPECTED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG INSTABILITY, ONGOING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STRONGEST
TSTM CORES, BUT SOME BRIEF, MINOR STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER WITH THE
COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE UP ALONG IT AND JUST
OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DAMPING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
BUT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
0Z TAFS: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, SOURCED FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH, IS EXPECTED TO REACH KSAV/KCHS/KJZI DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HREF INDICATES A SOLID BAND OF 40-50 PROBS OF 1
HR THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS TIMING,
THE THUNDER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30S BETWEEN 13-18Z,
WITH TS AT KSAV BETWEEN 17-20Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PRECEDING
AND AFTER THE THUNDERSTORM BAND. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AND/OR OCCURRING WITH ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY, BUT SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY
SETTLED INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
SURPASSING 25 KT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE WINDS MAY SURGE A BIT
MORE, SO TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
SURGE TO FORCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE ADVISORY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT HAVE
INCREASED TO >70% ACROSS BOTH SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE LEGS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING,
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DISRUPT THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN THE
ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST COUPLED WITH BUILDING 2-4 FT SWELL WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES FOR
THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ360-362-384.
NED
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