712
FXUS62 KCHS 060001
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
801 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO REMOVE STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- 2) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY, IT WILL FEEL EVEN HOTTER. HEAT INDICES OVER 100F ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST GENERALLY IN
THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN NEAR
RECORD-HIGH MINIMUM VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW), PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BECOME NEEDED ON A DAY-TO-DAY
BASIS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
IN THE FORECAST, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIMIT THE
DURATION WHERE HEAT INDICES REACH THE 108+ CRITERIA. REGARDLESS,
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING A RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE MORE VULNERABLE TO HEAT
OR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS THIS WEEK.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS, BEFORE DWINDLING AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THIS JIVES WITH SOME
OF THE AI/MLP GUIDANCE AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
IN ANY STORMS WITH PWATS NEAR OR OVER 2", BUT FLOODING RISK LOOKS
LOW ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS TO 15-20 KT
AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS WITH A MONDAY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY AT CHS AND
SAV TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR 3 FT, INCREASING TO 3-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON
TAP FOR THIS WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BACK MORE
TO THE SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4
FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS, ALONG WITH
INCREASING SWELL OF 9 OR 10 SECONDS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KSAV: 100/1902
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
JULY 10:
KCHS: 100/1986
KCXM: 99/1986
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990
JULY 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883
JULY 10:
KCHS: 81/1986
KCXM: 82/1986
JULY 11:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 82/2016
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/DPB/SST
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