554
FXUS62 KCHS 071839
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
239 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG THE
COAST.
- 2) COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.
- 3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US AS OUR
NORTHEAST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEAK SFC TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MARINE WATERS; EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS AND ARE
PROGRESSING INLAND WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A PSEUDO SEABREEZE/SFC
CONVERGENCE ZONE. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PWATS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR SC. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST FROM
AROUND BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA. THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK
IS RELATIVELY LOW BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP 1-
2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WERE TO OCCUR AROUND
THE TIME OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE (~5:45 PM) THE FLOOD RISK
COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE RECENT LUNAR PERIGEE (9/6) AND
THE UPCOMING NEW MOON (9/11). THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS HIGH AS 6.55 FT MLLW AT CHARLESTON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL WITH EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE INCREASING TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE
FIRST ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE
UPCOMING LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AT CHARLESTON (~5:45 PM) AND
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A PEAK TIDE VALUE OF 7.4 FT MLLW.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (7.5FT MLLW OR
HIGHER) WILL INCREASE WITH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDES AS TIDAL DEPARTURES LIKELY BUILD WITHIN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AT CHARLESTON ON TUESDAY (7.5FT MLLW). COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED FOR
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES WITH EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH INCLUDING
THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST, TIDAL DEPARTURES WOULD NEED TO EXCEED 1
FT TO REACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD (9.5 FT MLLW) AT
FORT PULASKI. THEREFORE, COASTAL FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY ALONG
THIS PART OF THE COAST BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE COASTLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST GA COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL AREA TAF SITES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OCCURRING MAINLY
EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN SC INTO EASTERN GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON;
HOWEVER, OVERALL IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD RELAX BY THE EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX;
HOWEVER, SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS TODAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC
WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. THE SCA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL
EXPIRE AT 02Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED (AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BECOMING
MORE FREQUENT ACROSS ALL THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
REMAIN VALID THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ148>151.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ149-
150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
BLACK/CPM
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