481
FXUS62 KCHS 192257
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK IMPULSE
IN ALABAMA MAKES IT INTO GEORGIA LATE. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT,
BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE FOG AND STRATUS CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK AS DEPICTED BY THE SREF AND NARRE-TL INLAND FROM I-95.
WE WILL RE-EVALUATE IN THE NEXT UPDATE TO CONSIDER ADDING TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO AFTER 09Z THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC PUSHING ONSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST. WE
HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL CARRY 10% CHANCES.
THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SO LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE
VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED
WITH TIME. COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT, HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE, SO COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED. MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES OF 20%. ON WEDNESDAY, MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GENERALLY ACT AS A CAP ON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. SOME SPOTS IN INTERIOR GEORGIA COULD PEAK IN
THE MID 90S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MID TO LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A WARMING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES
QUITE STRONG AND CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH, SETTING UP A WEST-NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PINNED SEABREEZE. IN
GENERAL, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG/NEAR THE BEACHES. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND MIXED OUT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF -SHRA
AROUND 10-13Z MONDAY, BUT WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ON THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS BY THE TIME THEY DEVELOP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING GOOD MARINE
CONDITIONS. WIND WILL BE SE AND S AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
BY LATE WEEK. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS, GENERALLY PEAKING
IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONDITIONS WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO REACHING SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING LEVELS WITH THE MID EVENING HIGH TIDE AND WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION ADVISORY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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