527
FXUS62 KCHS 131144
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND A DEPARTING MID-UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ANOTHER
DRY/SUNNY DAY UNDER A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. IN GENERAL, HIGHS SHOULD
PEAK IN THE LOW-MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME LOW-LVL MIXING, LOWERING SFC
DEWPTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS COULD APPROACH 25-30%
THIS AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST, THEN
NORTHWEST, LIMITING POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
DAY.
TONIGHT: ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES,
BECOMING MORE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER STRONG CASE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT/CALM UNDER
CLEAR SKIES EARLY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. LOWS COULD STAY AROUND 50 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES ONCE SFC
WINDS TIP MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND, WITH RATHER PLEASANT AND DRY FALL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO SEE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, RISING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION BY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. EACH NIGHT WILL
SEE NEAR-IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP, RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO MEET SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ONTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA, AND WITH A LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DOES SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EAST
COAST, BUT THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS IT STALLING JUST TO OUR
NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DECIDING FACTOR WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST, SO FOR NOW EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL-
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODELS
DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OF
THE WEST COAST. NBM KEEPS CHANCES LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES INTO THE EXTENDED, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SEASONABLY WARM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, FAVORING A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT.
IN GENERAL, 10-15 KT WEST WINDS PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL SLOWLY VEER
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING, REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KT FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIOR TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
NORTHERLY FLOW APPROACHING DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS OF 1-3 FT TODAY
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN TRANQUIL SEAS, WITH WINDS NOT HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE A SURGE IN WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25
KNOT RANGE, CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SOUTH
SANTEE, SC TO SAVANNAH, GA FROM 0-20NM OUT, WITH SEAS PEAKING AS
HIGH AS 3-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/DPB
MARINE...APT/DPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page