776
FXUS62 KCHS 130415
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1215 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING. SOME STORMS
COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A WEAK BACKDOOR BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH
STALLING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
STORMS AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, A MORE CONFINED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BECOME OF CONCERN IF THE RAINFALL TOTALS BEGIN TO PILE UP
WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN. THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK ADVERTISES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY WHILE WPC HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAY'S LUNAR PERIGEE
AND TUESDAY'S NEW MOON WILL BRING A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
MAINLY ALONG CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING NEAR, OR DURING THE TIME OF THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT CHS/JZI DURING THE NEXT
HOUR, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
IN THE 19-23Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME. PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND 5SM VSBYS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
ALONG WITH RISKS OF ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY, GRADUALLY
SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, YIELDING VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS CHANGE OF PATTERN WILL ALSO YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. OTHERWISE,
MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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