100
FXUS62 KCHS 200003
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
803 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS AND A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
- 2) RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL END THIS MORNING ALONG MUCH OF THE
GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AND A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
TONIGHT, THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THE NOR'EASTER LOCATED
OFF THE NC COAST WILL SUPPLY SE GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY WITH
DEEP DRY AIR. AS A RESULT, CLEAR SKY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH. GIVEN CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS,
THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS, INDICATING LOW
TEMPERATURE TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE BEACHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A NOR'EASTER WILL SPIN OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
WITH LREF INDICATING PWATS AROUND OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HIGHS GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS DEPICT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL END THIS MORNING ALONG
MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST LIFEGUARD REPORTS FROM TYBEE AND KIAWAH INDICATED A SURF
HEIGHT BETWEEN 1-2 FT. MORE RECENTLY, GRAYS REEF BUOY PRIOR TO
HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WAS OBSERVING SEAS AROUND 6 FT WITH A
DOMINATE WAVE PERIOD OF 14 SEC. SURF CAMS INDICATE A WAVE PERIOD
BETWEEN 12- 14 SEC, HOWEVER, HEIGHTS NEARING HIGH TIDE APPEARED
BELOW 5 FT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE GA COAST WILL END AT
2 PM. HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGER
BREAKERS, AROUND 4 FT, ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: TODAY: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED, LINGERING SWELL WILL SUPPORT A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY: STRONG AND GUSTY N WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL EASE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
SUBSIDING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE DISTANT
NOR'EASTER WILL BE GENERATING A 4-5 FT NE WAVE AT 12-13 SECONDS
JUST OFFSHORE. WE HAVE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY: THE RISK WILL LOWER FOR OUR SC BEACHES AS THE WAVES
SUBSIDE. ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE RISK. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
COULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON
TUESDAY. AFTER SUNRISE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 5 TO
10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. GUSTY WINDS COULD RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A NOR'EASTER OFF THE
NC COAST. THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE AND OUTER WATERS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER GA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR
TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A NOR'EASTER WILL SPIN OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE, BUT 6+ FOOTERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE
AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND EVEN
GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ384.
DENNIS/ETM/NED
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