754
FXUS62 KCHS 250659
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SATELLITE WATER VAPOR INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A DEEP H5 TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A 590
DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR AND RAP40
INDICATES SEVERAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUMES, TRACKING SW
TO NE ALONG THE H5 HEIGHTS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
USING A BLEND OF MOS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC PATTERN WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSE WINDS ACROSS SE GA/SC. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD READILY DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS MORNING, THEN PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
SBCAPE SHOULD BUILD TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS, A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVE PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES, THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS
SHOULD YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEA BREEZE. THE 0Z HREF INDICATES THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER INLAND GA, WITH A 10-30% OF
3"/3HR. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR INLAND GA COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY, WITH
COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THEN
COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF I-95.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR EAST RESTRENGTHENS A BIT ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OUR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL
BE PRIMARILY FORMING ALONG AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND THEN
EXPANDING INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
PWATS REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RECORD HIGH MINIMUM (WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW) TEMPERATURES.
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONT LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER
AIR ARRIVES AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOK BE RATHER REFRESHING, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, KCLX INDICATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NEAR AND OVER KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. THESE SHOWERS WERE LIKELY RESPONDING
TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BRIEF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A SEA BREEZE BY MID-DAY. EACH TAF
WILL FEATURE A PROB30 GROUP FROM 16-18Z FOR -TSRA. IN ADDITION, THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS TO GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS BY
23Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER RECENT
RAINS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD, FAVORING SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3
TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A LITTLE CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT
TO BECOME OUT OF THE WSW, THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A STALLED FRONT NEAR
THE AREA, KEEPING WINDS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/8S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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