389
FXUS62 KCHS 261207
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z
THURSDAY TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE TODAY.
- 2) A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES EXPECTED TO BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE MID-LATE
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WATER
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE, NEARBY SFC HEATING
ACROSS LAND IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO 35-40 KT LOW-LVL WIND
FIELDS. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. GUSTS SHOULD BE HIGHEST
ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALOFT, EXPECT BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING, AND THEN SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE LOW-LVL JET IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
WELL AND YIELD BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING,
BEFORE IT ADVANCES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LVL JET WILL ALSO ADVECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS CLIMBING UP TO 1.3-1.5" BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES, BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SOME WEAK (MUCAPE < 500
J/KG) INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT,
THEREFORE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE LACK OF
SUNSHINE WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE CONTAINED TO FRIDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 1-1.75
INCHES (OVER A 48-HR PERIOD) WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE TREND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT FLOODING WILL
NOT BE A CONCERN ESP. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAINFALL SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE
COASTLINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ESP. ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO LATE SAT.
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS. WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS.
RANGING FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CHS/JZI: TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-13Z WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING (MORE LIKELY AT CHS).
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
21Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE
GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS COULD THEN BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE PROB30
GROUPS ARE IN PLACE FROM 21Z-01Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
NUMEROUS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. PROB30 GROUPS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED BETWEEN 08-12Z FRIDAY.
SAV: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00-02Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS COULD THEN BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, WHICH IS MARKED BY A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 03-07Z FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: AFTER A LULL IN WINDS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS
EARLY MORNING, EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE DURING
THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 35-40 KT
1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELD SUGGESTS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING QUITE GUSTY ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST/LARGEST
ACROSS SC NEARSHORE WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS AS LARGE AS 4-7 FT. NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS COULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS AND SMALLER WAVES
GIVEN LESS FAVORABLE LOW-LVL MIXING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AWAY
FROM THE GULF STREAM. SHOULD TRENDS REMAIN WEAKER, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NEARSHORE GA WATERS COULD BE DROPPED
SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO REMAINING COASTAL WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH LOCAL
WATERS EARLY WEEKEND, LIKELY SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT CONDITIONS
THAT REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PRIOR TO STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO WEDGE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD,
WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE/BUILD ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
352-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.
DENNIS/DPB
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