481  
FXUS62 KCHS 192257  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK IMPULSE  
IN ALABAMA MAKES IT INTO GEORGIA LATE. AT THE SURFACE, THE  
BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES TONIGHT  
WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT,  
BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE FOG AND STRATUS CLOSER TO  
DAYBREAK AS DEPICTED BY THE SREF AND NARRE-TL INLAND FROM I-95.  
WE WILL RE-EVALUATE IN THE NEXT UPDATE TO CONSIDER ADDING TO THE  
FORECAST. ALSO AFTER 09Z THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS FROM OFF  
THE ATLANTIC PUSHING ONSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST. WE  
HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL CARRY 10% CHANCES.  
THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SO LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK  
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE  
VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED  
WITH TIME. COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT, HOWEVER  
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE, SO COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN  
FAIRLY ISOLATED. MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES OF 20%. ON WEDNESDAY, MID  
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA. LARGE SCALE  
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GENERALLY ACT AS A CAP ON CONVECTION.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.  
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. SOME SPOTS IN INTERIOR GEORGIA COULD PEAK IN  
THE MID 90S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,  
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MID TO LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A WARMING  
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES  
QUITE STRONG AND CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. HIGHS  
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER  
70S. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER  
LVL RIDGE MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH, SETTING UP A WEST-NORTHWEST  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES WARMER CONDITIONS  
ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PINNED SEABREEZE. IN  
GENERAL, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM  
THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG/NEAR THE BEACHES. THE COMBINATION  
OF HEAT AND MIXED OUT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES  
AROUND 100 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE  
LOW/MID 70S EACH NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF -SHRA  
AROUND 10-13Z MONDAY, BUT WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.  
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ON THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE INLAND FROM THE  
TERMINALS BY THE TIME THEY DEVELOP.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS  
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING GOOD MARINE  
CONDITIONS. WIND WILL BE SE AND S AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL  
BE 2-3 FT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.  
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE  
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION  
BY LATE WEEK. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS, GENERALLY PEAKING  
IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.  
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
CONDITIONS WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO REACHING SHALLOW COASTAL  
FLOODING LEVELS WITH THE MID EVENING HIGH TIDE AND WE'LL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SHORT DURATION ADVISORY.  
 

 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...DPB  
AVIATION...  
MARINE...  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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