003
FXUS62 KCHS 142359
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TODAY WITH BITTER COLD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE
AREA FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, SETTING UP A BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, WILL YIELD WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE (~20%) THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA COULD SEE A BRIEF MOMENT OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
MONDAY: DEEP, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
EVEN WITH FULL SUN, HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST 40,
WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR THE DATE! LUCKILY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, REDUCING
ANY WIND CHILL EFFECTS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NIGHT, SHIFTING A BIT
FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS, LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES, ON
THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, ARE REASONABLE. THIS WOULD
NECESSITATE ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SE SC AND SE
GA INLAND OF THE HWY 17 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES, REACHING TO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE GENERAL ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO BRIEFLY
BE INTERRUPTED BY A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH
THIS FRONT REMAINS THAT FRONTOLISIS AND WANING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED RAINFALL, WITH STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER FLOW REVERTS BACK TO GENERALLY
ZONAL, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS
DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT AND THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH THE AREA POSSIBLY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ANY
IMPACT IN OUR AREA IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
GUSTY NNW WINDS, WHICH SHOULD VEER TO THE NNE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR KCHS, KJZI AND
KSAV THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS EVENING, CAUSING GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SURGE, WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND HAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ELEVATED SEAS AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY KEEPING BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS LIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCHS: 15/1962
KCXM: 23/1943
KSAV: 19/1962
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCHS: 39/1943
KCXM: 38/1904
KSAV: 38/1904
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/CPM
MARINE...CEB/CPM
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