908
FXUS62 KCHS 241059
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- 2)INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TODAY WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, EXCEPT THAT A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR AREA AS PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.9 TO POSSIBLY 2
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY SUBTLE ASCENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE SCATTERED THAN IT WAS TODAY. GIVEN THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES A LITTLE BETTER LEADING TO MORE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER, THE BEST ASCENT
APPEARS TO MISS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THIS
PROGRESSION EXPECT STORMS TO LIKELY START NORTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM. AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND
BOUNDARIES FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, WE LIKELY SEE
THE SEABREEZE BEGIN TO ZIPPER FROM CHARLESTON SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
SAVANNAH BY THE EARLY EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE 3000-3500 RANGE RESULTING IN LIKELY POTENT UPDRAFTS. WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS DRY AIR, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS
ENVIRONMENT UNLIKE TODAY WHEN ANY ATTEMPT OF A STORM JUST
FIZZLED AS DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM DRYING IT OUT. WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA, SOME WEAK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS RANGE WHICH COULD SUPPORT MORE
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THAT WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.9
INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AS A RESULT, THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
TUESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THAT OUR MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH PWATS INCREASING IN THE 2
INCH RANGE AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE THE OVERALL SIGNAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO CLUSTER UP WITH
TIME A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 TO 2.1 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING IN STORMS. THE MORE WATER IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CLOUD THE MORE WEIGHT COMES CRASHING DOWN AND THE MORE
WEIGHT THE STRONGER THE WINDS COULD BE DESPITE DCAPE VALUES ONLY
IN THE 700 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO
THE REGION AND LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING PWATS REACHING NEAR 2 INCHES
BY LATE WEEK. GIVEN THIS AND SOME LARGER SCALE FORCING IN PLAY, IN
ADDITION TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW, BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, WITH SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS, POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
24/12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS HIGHEST AROUND KSAV THIS AFTERNOON;
HOWEVER, STORMS COULD OCCUR IN AND AROUND CHS/JZI AS WELL
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BRINGING
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO
3 FEET. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE WATERS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 24:
KCHS: 76/2010
KCXM: 80/1975
AUGUST 25:
KCHS: 77/1982
AUGUST 28:
KCHS: 77/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/ETM
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