100
FXUS62 KCHS 162337
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
737 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH, BEFORE REBUILDING FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH INLAND. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE MID-APRIL
NORMALS. HIGHS OF 90-95 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES COULD PUT
DAILY RECORDS IN JEOPARDY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO MEANS NO RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED THIS MORNING NOW INDICATES
D4/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA, WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE D3/EXTREME DROUGHT TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE REMAINING AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS
QUITE LIMITED, SO WHILE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NON-ZERO, THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW. IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AS NBM INDICATES THE PROBABILITY FOR 24 HR RAINFALL >0.10" IS
15% OR LESS, SO NO DENT IN THE DROUGHT STATUS IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE MODERATING
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOWS ARE EVEN EXPECTED TO DIP BACK
INTO THE 40S. STILL NO NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 18/00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING VARIABLE LATE OVERNIGHT AS THEY TRANSITION TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE MORNING. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ASHORE STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY BRINGING A
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS ALONG SHORE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE INTENSIFY OF THE SEA BREEZE SURGE LIKELY TO WANE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS GIVEN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RAPID
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-
30 KT ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE 20-60 NM OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS LOOK TO PEAK MONDAY, RANGING FROM
4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 7-10 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (HIGHEST
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AND A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT SWELL
AROUND 10 SECONDS, MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH LUNAR PERIGEE/NEW MOON. AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 17:
KCHS: 91/1967
KCXM: 86/2006
KSAV: 95/1967
APRIL 18:
KCHS: 92/1967
KSAV: 93/1967
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/ETM
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