574
FXUS62 KCHS 051407
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES
THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS SOME OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES
THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM METARS INDICATE THAT THE DENSE FOG HAS
CLEARED OUT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING, THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGH MID-MORNING AND WILL KEEP WATCH WITH
HOW THAT PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE,
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SUPPORT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EACH DAY. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AREAS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER COULD SEE HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 80S SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL PEAK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL; IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. DESPITE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, NO RECORDS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY; HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKEST. HOWEVER, AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT KJZI AND KSAV,
WITH MVFR AT KCHS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS FOG MIXES OUT AND VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN BY
MID-MORNING. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
MARINE
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE THE SEA FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME PATCHY SEA FOG
LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT'LL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND TRAVEL FURTHER OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RECURRING CONCERN AS WARM, MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. PERIODS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP
FREQUENTLY AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES,
REDUCING VISIBILITY FOR MARINERS. ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/CPM/DENNIS
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