032
FXUS62 KCHS 230653
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
253 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND GA/SC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE OR TRACK NORTH BEFORE DAWN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WEAKENING AREA OF COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING,
THEN PUSHING BRISKLY INLAND WITHIN THE INVERTED TROUGH.
GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S,
SBCAPE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY BUILD TO 2000-2500
J/KG. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SEA BREEZE, LIKELY REACHING THE LFC AROUND 850 MB. HREF
INDICATES GREATER THAN A 30% FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTH GREATER THAN 30
M/S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND GA. THE STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY PUSH ECHO
TOPS INTO THE MID 40 KFT, WITH DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-800 J/KG. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DEVELOP LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM.
IN ADDITION, CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS, POSSIBLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, OR CROSS THE SEA BREEZE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.8 TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH A
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. THE 0Z HREF HIGHLIGHTS A CORRIDOR OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TATTNALL NORTH TO ALLENDALE, WITH AROUND 90% OF
1 INCH/3 HRS AND 50% - 70% OF 3 INCHES/3HR. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL FALLING WITHIN AN AREA OF EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME
DROUGHT. HOWEVER, RAINFALL RATES COULD BECOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH A MARGINAL RISK AND WPC HIGHLIGHTS THE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY,
WITH COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS, THEN COVERAGE SHOULD
EXPAND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COUNTIES.
NEXT WEEK, WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY, SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING ALONG A SEA BREEZE BEFORE EXPANDING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM (WARM OVERNIGHT LOW) TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS: A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INLAND OF THE TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S, A
PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND SHOULD PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND WITHIN A
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE FALL LINE, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SE
BETWEEN 10-13 KTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND GA.
HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST, RESULTING
IN WEAKENING STORMS TO CROSS OVER THE SEA BREEZE. THESE STORMS WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO FROM 23-3Z AT KSAV AND PROB30 AT
KCHS/KJZI. OTHERWISE, VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY: A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST WILL DRIVE ONSHORE ESE FLOW EACH DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/9S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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