300
FXUS62 KCHS 051132
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WHILE H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH ALONG ITS WESTERN EDGE. AT THE
SFC, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, ATTEMPTING TO
HOLD LOCALLY ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR AND WEST OF THE REGION.
MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS MORNING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL BE DRIVEN ONSHORE WITHIN AN EASTERLY WIND,
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA COASTAL CORRIDOR, BEFORE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED, BUT
POSSIBLY WITH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA AREAS AND THE
GEORGIA INTERIOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRING BETWEEN THE COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND NORTH. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY MORE SPARSELY
ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DRIFTS ONSHORE AGAIN (INCLUDING ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST) LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIOR TO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN REGARDS TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTING
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING TO THE NORTH AND WELL INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH
THE BULK OF CONVECTION SEEN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WANING ACROSS LAND
AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE EVENING AND
OCCURRING THROUGH LATE NIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE PRECIP ACTIVITY TOWARD COASTAL AREAS LATE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY
APPROACHING DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ALONG MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REMAIN A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, RANGING IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
AND PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGHING KEEPS THE STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION GOING, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO PUSH ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MODEST, WITH MINIMAL IMPACT FROM PURELY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING, ANY RAIN THAT FALLS AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING IMPACTS FOR VERY
LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD, DISRUPTING THE STREAM OF LL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOME INLAND AREAS
LIKELY APPROACHING 90.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
H5 HEIGHTS FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DIGS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, LIKELY CROSSING OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY
EARLY THURSDAY THEN PUSHING SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL, OVERALL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH ANY COASTAL
SHOWER THAT OCCURS WITH FROPA.
GUSTY NE WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT - 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILE REFLECTING A MOST LIKELY WIND SPEED ALONG THE
COAST OF AROUND 20-30 MPH - TO END THE WORKWEEK, WHICH, IN ADDITION
TO ALREADY ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS, COULD BRING A PERIOD OF VERY
IMPACTFUL TIDAL FLOODING TO END THE WEEK. SEE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION FOR MORE.
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD DEVELOP WAVES WITHIN THE FRONT OFFSHORE,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AND CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS AS RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTS INLAND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IMPACTING CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS UNTIL 13-15Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER, BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING A SHOWER, MAINLY AT SAV DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD THEN RETURN
AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY EVENING, BETWEEN THE 03-06Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY BRINGS
A LIMITED THREAT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE, LEADING TO AN EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LOCAL WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES, SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED, GENERALLY BETWEEN 4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 6-
8 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUNDAY ONWARD: VERY LONG FETCH EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PERSISTENT
MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SOME UNDERLYING, BUT
MUCH SMALLER, LONGER PERIOD SWELL THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS WELL. THE
SWELL WILL PEAK MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE,
BEFORE ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHEN BREEZY NE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY IN PRIMARILY MEDIUM PERIOD E TO NE SWELLS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
EARLY MORNING: LATEST TIDE OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON
AND POTENTIALLY UP TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY,
SC SOUTH TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTY AS A RESULT FOR THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, ~6:46 AM AT CHARLESTON HARBOR, SC. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASED THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON (OCT 7) AND PERIGEE (OCT 8). ADDITIONALLY,
TIDAL DEPARTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATE WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY NE
WINDS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLES CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THEN, LATE WEEK, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ARRIVES
WITH THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ049-
050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/DPB
MARINE...CEB/DPB
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