357
FXUS62 KCHS 132311
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRISKLY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN
SUNNY CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. USING A BLEND OF
MOS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 6-7 KFT. THE DEEP MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S ALONG
THE COAST. AFTER RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20S INLAND TO THE
LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 10 MPH, WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS
INTO THE TEENS.
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION,
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH. THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE GA COAST LATE TONIGHT, BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS (IF IT DEVELOPS) TO
REACH KSAV IS VERY LOW. A FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARRIVING OVER THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FEATURE WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: THURSDAY: THERE WILL REMAIN A 2-3 FT SWELL AT 7
TO 8 SECONDS PERIODS AT OUR BEACHES. INTERNAL CALCULATIONS POINT
TO A LOW RISK AT ALL OF OUR BEACHES. HOWEVER, RCMOS POINTS TO A
BORDERLINE LOW/MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR SC BEACHES AND A
MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR GA BEACHES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SINCE TYBEE, GA IS PRONE TO RIP CURRENTS, WE UPPED THE RISK TO
MODERATE FOR OUR GA BEACHES, BUT LEFT THE RISK LOW FOR OUR SC
BEACHES. ON FRIDAY, BREAKER HEIGHTS MAY DECREASE BY A FOOT, BUT
TIDAL RANGES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A LOW RISK FOR SC BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE GA
BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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