673
FXUS62 KCHS 052315
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
715 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT LINGER OVER PARTS OF COASTAL
GEORGIA.
- 2) COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- 3) COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- 4) NHC HAS IDENTIFIED A SYSTEM IN THE GULF WITH A HIGH CHANCE
OF FORMATION THROUGH SEVEN DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LINGER
OVER PARTS OF COASTAL GEORGIA.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME
DEGREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE MIDDLE GEORGIA COAST LIKELY SEEING THE
GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST LATE WITH WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25-30 MPH AT THE BEACHES AS SUNRISE APPROACHES.
WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RESPOND. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
THE CENTER OF A 1025 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON TUESDAY. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SFC RIDGE
WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. TO THE
SOUTH, A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE SFC PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GA
ON TUESDAY. HREF INDICATES THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE GA COAST, DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS, THICK CLOUDS, AND
ISOLATE SHOWERS MAY FAVOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BLENDING THE NBM10 WITH NBM50, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAY EXCEED 35 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE, SUPPORTED BY STABLE AND DRY EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS TUESDAY,
AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT DECREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND
NORMALS, RANGING AROUND 80 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEK. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
A MINOR/MODERATE SALTWATER INUNDATION SETUP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES. THERE IS A MORE
LIMITED RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES INTO THURSDAY
ALONG THE SC COAST. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS/HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION: THE SETUP LOOKS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND DANGEROUS LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR HIGH SURF ALONG
THE BEACHES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL
FOR 4-6 FT BREAKERS DEVELOPING IN THE SURF ZONE (LARGEST FOR
COASTAL GEORGIA) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY SHOULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
BEACHES. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY, PARTICULARLY
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEACH EROSION
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST AROUND THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 4: NHC HAS IDENTIFIED A SYSTEM IN THE GULF WITH A
HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH SEVEN DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF LATER
THIS WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, LIKELY SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS AND ECMWF AND THE AI VARIANTS INDICATES
THAT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST, AIDED BY A PASSING COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV.
OVERALL, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TERMINALS
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KCHS AND KJZI SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT KSAV, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST FROM
MID MORNING ONWARD TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY MORNING AND GUSTS INTO THE 20- 25 KNOT RANGE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. BREEZY WINDS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS INLAND COLD AIR DAMMING BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AS
DAYBREAK APPROACHES WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT.
TUESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
GALE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM TO 2 AM WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD QUICKLY WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH 4-7 FT WAVES
ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND 10-11 FT WAVES IN ALL ZONES
FROM 20-60NM OFFSHORE. WIND STRENGTH DECREASES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA,
BRINGING AN END TO THE GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 2 AM.
WEDNESDAY: THE PINCHED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL HAVE LOWERED INTO THE 25 TO
34 KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKER WAVES ALONG THE COAST BY THE
EVENING HOURS. IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES EXPECT 6 TO 9 FOOT
WAVES BY THE EVENING HOURS, HIGHEST IN THE SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND ZONE.
THURDAY-FRIDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE 20 TO 60NM OFFSHORE ZONES. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MAY SETUP ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS.
EQUIPMENT
THE METTER, GA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION (WWH-25) WILL BE
OFFLINE FROM MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OF THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8. THE TRANSMITTER IS BEING
RELOCATED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ148>151.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ340.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ360-362-380.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ364-382-384.
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