122
FXUS62 KCHS 212320
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS FORECAST
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING. CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT DEVELOPING UPPER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY LOCALIZED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
LATER THIS EVENING, COLD-POOL DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA - WHERE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
OVERLAPPING PEAK HEATING TO A GREATER EXTENT - IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
AND THUNDER INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH THE SEVERE AND FLOODING
THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HOT AN HUMID CONDITIONS, BUT
LIMITED UPPER FORCING AND WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE WARM, WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100S, THOUGH NOT LIKELY HOT ENOUGH TO
SOLICIT HEAT ADVISORIES. SEASONABLE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE
RIDGING/INLAND TROUGHING REESTABLISHES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
MAINTAINING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL DAILY
CONVECTION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS NO APPARENT SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE OR FLOODING THREAT AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER NEAR KSAV THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR,
WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY THE VCTS. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY LOOKS LOW, SO NO MENTION OF
ANYTHING WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME NEAR 10 KT WITH SEAS
1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE WATERS POSITIONED
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME
POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BUT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 23:
KCHS: 78/2024
KCXM: 82/1998
KSAV: 77/2017
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CEB/CPM
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