787
FXUS62 KFFC 201846
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S TODAY AND MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
PERSISTENT MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO BREAK ACROSS
THE METRO AND PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE KEPT A BIT
OF A LID ON TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT SAW THE CLOUD COVER, BUT NOW
THAT THE SUNS OUT THINGS ARE QUICKLY GETTING TOASTY OUT THERE. TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES AND SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO
MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE CLOUD COVER HAS
CREATED SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION (ALREADY SEEN WITH A
FEW STORMS FIRING IN EAST GEORGIA). OTHERWISE, TERRAIN MAY ACT AS
THE BEST SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED
UP PRECIP CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE NBM AND MOST MODELS AS THEY LOOK A
LITTLE OVER MIXED AND DIDN'T HANDLE MORNING CLOUD COVER AT ALL.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, AS INSTABILITY ISN'T AS
FAVORABLE TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A BROAD SURFACE HIGH SLIDE INTO THE MIDWEST AND NE
CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OF AN EXITING TROUGH INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT SET UP
VIA THAT HIGH WILL BE A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING THROUGH THE OZARKS TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND STALLING. NOW
THAT MOST CAM GUIDANCE IS GETTING A LOOK AT TOMORROW, BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN GEORGIA,
FALLING OFF INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (< 20 KTS), BUT
DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGH PWATS COMBINED WITH A BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
AND A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM MAY ALL COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OUR DAYS OF 90 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE NUMBERED (SEE BELOW), BUT THIS WILL BE
YET ANOTHER WE ALL WILL GET SUFFER THROUGH TOGETHER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL FALL! WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM AUTUMNAL, WE
WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT (AT LEAST SOMEWHAT) FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AS A 500-
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BLOSSOM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FEATURE, SPARKING
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A QLCS/MCS (SUGGESTED BY
THE RRFS [RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SYSTEM]). AS A RESULT, THE PEAK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY
END UP BEING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS WE
OFTEN SEE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL AS SECONDARY HAZARDS. THE DEGREE TO WHICH CONVECTION
WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL COME INTO BETTER VIEW AS WE ENTER THE HI-RES
MODEL TIME WINDOW (24-36 HOURS OUT).
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER EASTERN
CANADA FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO COLD AIR DAMMING
(THE "WEDGE") HERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVERALL, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INITIALLY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS MAXIMIZED ON
WEDNESDAY MAY DEPEND LARGELY ON WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ENDS UP. FWIW, A FEW OF THE AI-
NWP-BASED FORECASTS AND GEFS ML FORECASTS FROM NCAR SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL RISK TYPE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES AND NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-/MID-LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS, SO RAIN CHANCES THOSE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY ZERO AREA-
WIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA
CONCERNS ACROSS ALL SITES. OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEEING A STORM
IS LOW BUT BEST CHANCES ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN PROB30 AT 21 TO 00Z.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IMPACTS OVERNIGHT AT MCN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS, THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 92 69 90 / 10 20 30 50
ATLANTA 73 92 72 90 / 10 20 30 60
BLAIRSVILLE 64 86 64 82 / 20 60 40 90
CARTERSVILLE 71 93 70 91 / 10 30 30 70
COLUMBUS 72 94 71 94 / 10 10 10 20
GAINESVILLE 70 90 70 88 / 20 40 30 70
MACON 70 93 70 93 / 10 10 10 20
ROME 70 94 68 92 / 10 30 30 70
PEACHTREE CITY 69 93 69 91 / 10 10 20 50
VIDALIA 72 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...LUSK
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