658
FXUS62 KFFC 241911
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS THE STATE AS MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK OPEN WAVE HAVE MOVED NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.
THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MS/LA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WEAK WEDGING PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH IS
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THINGS A BIT STABLE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE MOMENT. TEMPS ARE STILL A BIT WARM
BUT THEY ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN IN A FEW WEEKS. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SAME AS
TODAY AS WELL AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
01
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STILL NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
APPROACHES NORTH GA MID WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT PUSH INTO THE
AREA WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING. GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING US IN A MOIST AIRMASS. LIKELY OR BETTER POPS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT STILL ON
TRACK. OTHERWISE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WEST OF THE
AREA AND STRETCHING FROM OHIO AND KENTUCKY AND EXTENDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN TIER. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE DAY WED BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE NW PORTIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TO ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 ON THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY ALONG THE I85
CORRIDOR.
FRONT MAKES LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND POPS
DISTRIBUTION LIKEWISE REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MAXIMA WILL
DEPEND UPON EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING FOR THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS BY FRI DAY BUT THAT IS ONLY PER THE GFS. ECMWF
ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE BUT IT DOES LITTLE IN MAKING THE FRONT
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, INSTEAD KEEPING MOISTURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
NO REAL SIGNALS TO CHOOSE ONE MODEL SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
POINT AND WILL IN GENERAL USE A BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM WHICH YIELDS POPS IN THE LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE
CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOW TO MID 80S HELD DOWN
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
DEESE
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE
SOME IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z-14Z AS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHES IN ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER THAT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE OFF AND ON THOROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT THINKING THY SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO MISS THE TAF SITES. VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT WILL
SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 85 69 87 / 50 30 40 60
ATLANTA 71 84 72 85 / 50 50 60 70
BLAIRSVILLE 65 77 65 78 / 60 50 70 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 85 70 83 / 50 60 70 80
COLUMBUS 72 89 73 89 / 40 40 50 50
GAINESVILLE 69 81 70 83 / 50 40 60 70
MACON 71 89 71 90 / 40 20 30 40
ROME 70 85 70 82 / 60 60 80 80
PEACHTREE CITY 70 85 70 86 / 40 50 50 60
VIDALIA 72 90 72 91 / 20 20 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01
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