682
FXUS62 KFFC 250644
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT RAINFALL MAY IMPROVE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. THE
INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED ON
THE FRINGES OF A DECAYING MCS THAT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MS
AND INTO AL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN MCV CHURNING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA (LEFTOVER FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS) WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, AS IT COULD SERVE TO FOCUS AND WEAKLY ORGANIZE CONVECTION
WITHIN ITS VICINITY. AS IT STANDS, INSTABILITY REMAINS ANEMIC AND
HODOGRAPHS ARE UNIMPRESSIVE, SO A REALISTIC "CEILING" THROUGH
DAYBREAK IS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND ERRANT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVE LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A CAVEAT HERE IS THAT CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CAPTURING
ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AT INITIALIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS -- EVEN NOW, THE LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA ARE NOT WELL-MODELED -- SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS WE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, MOISTURE
HAS REBOUNDED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (OBSERVED DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S VS. 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS TIME YESTERDAY), SO EVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER PEAKING IN COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MEAGER, GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A QUARTER OF A HALF OF AN INCH. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS, BUT WELCOMED ALL THE SAME.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE PROGGED TO
BE POST-FRONTAL AROUND SUNRISE, WITH A BRIEF PUSH OF WEAKLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. GIVEN LESS STARK AIRMASS CHANGES, 15-30%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTED BY LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING AND LIFT GENERATED BY A
PASSING DISTURBANCE AT THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN SO, MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY TO ROUND OFF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85, IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FURTHER SOUTH,
YET ANOTHER DAY IN THE 80S -- AND POTENTIALLY 90 FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TIER. LITTLE POST-FRONTAL EFFECTS WILL BE FELT ON
SUNDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S, AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CLEARS GEORGIA TO
THE EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST, A CAD WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THIS WEDGE.
UNDER THIS WEDGE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE LIMITED TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S (AND EVEN UPPER 60S AT THE RIDGETOPS) COMPARED TO LOW
TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WITHIN THIS WEDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY, WITH POPS OF 10% OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA WILL BE BREWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS STRONG TROUGHING ROTATES AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA, CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST,
AIDED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFIES AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHERE THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
LINGERS, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHERE CONDITIONS
ALIGN, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (MOST LIKELY ALONG SAID WEDGE BOUNDARY). LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO BE WEAKER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A RISK FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE STATE.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL OVERRUN THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE AND FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD, CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU DAYBREAK, THEN GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SCT-
BKN MVFR WITH INITIAL PUSH OF -SHRA CHCS. COVERAGE BEST CAPTURED
WITH A VCSH THRU EARLY AFTN. -SHRA WILL BE PATCHY/OFF AND ON
BEGINNING 17-18Z, WITH BEST WINDOW FOR DIRECT IMPACTS OF TSRA
19-01Z FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF BY 01-02Z, WITH
PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AT 5-12KFT. LOW CIGS (MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR) ARE PSBL AFT 06Z SUNDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOW- VFR VSBYS IN BR. WINDS INITIALLY CALM/VRB OVERNIGHT WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SW AT 4-8KTS BY 14-15Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING AND CEILING
PROGRESSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 59 83 56 / 50 50 20 10
ATLANTA 79 61 83 59 / 60 50 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 72 52 79 50 / 70 40 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 78 57 83 57 / 70 40 10 10
COLUMBUS 83 61 85 60 / 60 70 20 10
GAINESVILLE 78 59 83 57 / 60 40 20 10
MACON 83 61 85 58 / 60 60 20 10
ROME 78 57 84 57 / 70 40 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 80 58 84 57 / 60 60 10 10
VIDALIA 89 63 86 59 / 60 60 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...96
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