865
FXUS62 KFFC 101048
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S AND A FEW PM SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL GA.
- TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN CLIMB FROM THE 70S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS IS THAT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S. DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GA, WHERE THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AND LOWEST SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY, AS THE RIDGE
KICKS OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST /
MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND START TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE. SPOILER ALERT: THE
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH GA ON
SATURDAY AND BE GREATER IN COVERAGE (SEE LONG TERM BELOW). AS FOR
THE HEAT, THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL LINGER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM PERIOD PICKS UP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARDS
THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES, A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND
APPROACHING THE NORTH GEORGIA BORDER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.
A WARMER FETCH OF GULF AIR WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A FURTHER INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
75-85% IN NORTH GEORGIA (CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY) AND 50-70%
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS, STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, MOST LIKELY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE FALL LINE. SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. CONSIDERING THIS AND A NEARLY
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE DIURNAL INSTABILITY, A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL NEAR
THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
VICINITY. WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 AND IN
THE UPPER 90S IN AREAS TO THE NORTH IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOCAL MAXIMUM (50-60% CHANCE) IN COVERAGE
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINING FOR HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING
100 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF A SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH OF
THOSE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ASIDE FROM MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA (MCN AND CSG) AND AS FAR NORTH AS ATL THROUGH
AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO
AFTERNOON CU OF 5-6KFT. ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN, BUT CANT BE RULED OUT AT THOSE SITES. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY
TURNING FROM OUT THE SE THIS MORNING, TO THE S-SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN CIGS THIS MORNING, AND WIND DIRECTION TODAY.
HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 71 94 70 / 0 0 40 50
ATLANTA 92 73 92 73 / 10 10 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 87 65 87 65 / 0 0 40 60
CARTERSVILLE 94 71 93 71 / 10 10 40 50
COLUMBUS 93 74 93 73 / 20 20 60 40
GAINESVILLE 91 72 92 71 / 0 0 40 60
MACON 92 72 92 72 / 20 10 60 40
ROME 94 70 93 70 / 0 0 40 60
PEACHTREE CITY 92 71 92 70 / 10 10 60 50
VIDALIA 92 74 92 74 / 30 10 50 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...CULVER
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