584
FXUS62 KFFC 171022
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
622 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
- AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES WEST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX
REGION, AND UPPER LEVEL "EASTERLY" WAVE/DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
FLORIDA AND MOVE OVER THE GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RATHER DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WHICH
WILL HELP SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. AT
THIS TIME, NOT SEEING MUCH TO SUPPORT ANY "SEVERE" STORMS FRIDAY BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INITIAL CONVECTION POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO
HIGHER DCAPE VALUES - WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AS
STORMS GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA (GIVEN FLOW AROUND UPR
RIDGE).
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW (FRIDAY) WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOUT 5-8F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY (W/ LESS MORNING CLOUD-COVER).
DJN.83
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
WILL SLIDE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL POOL
ACROSS THE AREA, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S, COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DROP OFF BY THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW GET ABSORBED
BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN WITH A WEDGE. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY (AND TONIGHT). LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THIS DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW (FRIDAY) BUT ANY
PO-UP SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 92 69 96 70 / 0 0 20 30
ATLANTA 92 72 96 73 / 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 88 66 89 65 / 20 0 30 0
CARTERSVILLE 94 70 97 71 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 91 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 91 71 95 71 / 0 0 20 10
MACON 91 66 95 70 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 95 70 97 70 / 0 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 91 68 95 70 / 0 0 10 20
VIDALIA 91 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...DJN.83
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