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FXUS62 KFFC 051725
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH THREATS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL
NORMS (MID-80S TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FAIRLY RINSE AND REPEAT TO YESTERDAY. THE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS
STILL SPINNING DOWN OVERHEAD DRIVING CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHILE THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER, ONLY DECREASING
SLIGHTLY ONCE THE LOW DISSIPATES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS, HOWEVER THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SPEED,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT
FOR. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD NEAR TO JUST BELOW 90 THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPS DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING AT
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, WE'LL
SET UP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SSW FLOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY BUT SURELY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. AS OVERNIGHT LOWS CLIMB INTO THE MID
70S, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY.
FORTUNATELY, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY HELP EASE TEMPERATURES DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE IS
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM EVERYDAY
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND THERE ISN'T ANYTHING TO INDICATE
WE'LL BE SEEING A CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR (4-6 KFT) OUTSIDE
OF SHRA/TSRA. AREAS OF LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 10-12Z THURSDAY
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR AHN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
IS LOW. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY,
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN SSE AND SSW WITH SPEEDS 3-6 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND MORNING LOW CIG POTENTIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 87 69 88 70 / 50 30 40 40
ATLANTA 87 72 89 72 / 60 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 81 65 82 66 / 60 30 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 88 71 90 71 / 50 10 50 20
COLUMBUS 92 74 93 73 / 50 20 30 20
GAINESVILLE 84 70 87 70 / 60 40 60 40
MACON 91 71 92 71 / 30 20 30 30
ROME 88 70 90 71 / 50 10 50 10
PEACHTREE CITY 88 70 90 70 / 60 10 40 20
VIDALIA 93 73 93 72 / 30 40 40 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...RW
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