161
FXUS62 KFFC 071130
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG THROUGH 10 AM IS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10AM (POSSIBLY UNTIL 11AM IN SOME
AREAS). HREF PROBS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE DENSE FOG
CONDITIONS, BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON, GIVING MANY
AREAS THEIR FIRST BOUT OF SUNSHINE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SW FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN PLAY TODAY AND TOMORROW,
PRIMING THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER THAT THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSIONS TALKS ABOUT. RIDGING AND OVERALL ZONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WAA TO ENTER THE AREA. TEMPS
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE
ON RECORD WATCH AS AHN, ATL, AND MCN WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM THE RECORD HIGHS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG YET AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING WITH HREF PROBS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE BREAKDOWN, AS THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF SPECIFIC OUTCOMES.
THE GREATEST HAZARD HAS SHIFTED FROM A SEVERE CONCERN TOWARDS A
HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PWATS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM AL TO NORTHWEST GA AND EASTERN TN.
PROBABILISTIC PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES NOTABLE PWAT VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, EVEN CONSIDERING LONG RANGE MODEL TENDENCY TO OVER
REPRESENT THESE. PWAT VALUES REALISTICALLY COULD REACH OVER 1.4"
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THIS WOULD SIT WELL INTO THE 95TH PERCENTILE
FOR OBSERVED PWATS AND MAY EVEN TOP THE HIGHEST RECORDED PWAT FOR
THE DAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING DRAGGING COLD FRONT,
BROAD WARM FRONT, AND SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING, THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INCREASES. AS SUCH, QPF WITHIN THE MODELS HAS ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN MEMBERS WHICH GENERATE TRAINING
CONVECTIVE BANDS RESULTING IN NARROW CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
TN, AL, AND FAR NORTHWEST GA. QPF WITHIN THE HIGHEST BAND OF
RAINFALL CURRENTLY SITS AT 3"+ WITH SOME MODELS DELIVERING AS MUCH
AS 5"+. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MODEL QPF MAY BE
UNDER-REPRESENTING PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY BAND COULD SHIFT BY 10S OF
MILES. THUS, IN A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO, WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS CAMS GET INTO
RANGE AND CERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION MODE INCREASES.
NOW TO ADDRESS THE ANY SEVERE THREAT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE CURRENT PREFERRED SOLUTION BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AFTER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED. LUCKILY THESE FACTORS WILL DECREASE THE SEVERE CHANCES
IN SPITE OF THE BENEFICIAL DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE. MEDIAN MUCAPE VALUES
CURRENTLY SIT AROUND 300 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER TO 600
J/KG. THIS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE SOMEWHAT WITH LIMITED REALIZATION OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE WAA AND JUMP CAPE VALUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS RELATIVELY LIMITED, THANKFULLY, DUE TO REDUCED DYNAMICS THIS FAR
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. IN
SHORT, WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASED CONVECTION AS WE GET INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY TO NEAR NORMAL, IF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS OBSERVED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH LIFR STRATUS. THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH
~15Z BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY 17/18Z. SHOULD SEE HIGH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT BEFORE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. W WINDS WILL TURN NE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON VFR AS EARLY AS 17Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 47 68 54 / 0 0 10 20
ATLANTA 70 51 68 58 / 0 0 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 65 43 63 52 / 0 0 10 30
CARTERSVILLE 70 49 69 59 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 75 54 74 57 / 10 0 10 10
GAINESVILLE 70 47 66 56 / 0 0 10 20
MACON 75 52 74 55 / 10 0 10 10
ROME 73 50 73 61 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 50 71 57 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 76 56 76 58 / 10 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078>082-089>094.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page