956
FXUS62 KFFC 221021
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
621 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST FLOW BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAK FEATURE. AS THE WAVE BREAKS OVERHEAD, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DRIVING NEAR SFC NE TO E FLOW
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? HIGHS COOL ONCE
AGAIN AS A DRY CAD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT FIRE DANGER PERSISTS
EACH DAY. RECENT 10HR FUEL MOISTURES HAVE DROPPED TO 6% OR LESS THE
LAST FEW AFTERNOONS AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 25%
EACH DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE LONG TERM BRING MORE FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES.
STARTING WITH THE WEEKEND, A CAD SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, PROVIDING A RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER WEATHER. THIS COOLER
NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US WILL KEEP HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
KEEPING THINGS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH MIDWEEK, THOUGH STAYING LARGELY SEASONAL. BY THIS POINT,
THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS, FLATTENING THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. WHILE THIS MAY FORETELL A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THEREAFTER, THINGS STILL LOOK TO STAY DRY LOCALLY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY LARGELY HOLDS
OFF ANY SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE START TO
HEAD INTO NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR THRU PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KTS) AND NW
TODAY. WINDS LIKELY TO WAFFLE ON EITHER SIDE OF DUE NORTH LATE
MORNING AT ATL METRO SITES, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 4KTS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM ENE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 75 51 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 72 43 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 76 45 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 79 51 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 48 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 79 48 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 76 43 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 76 46 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 78 49 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM
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