252
FXUS62 KFFC 141040
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM THAT FORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITHIN A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE --
PWATS GENERALLY ABOVE 2" -- WITH THE PAST THREE FFC SOUNDINGS
REPORTING VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.15" (WELL BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING DAILY MAXIMUMS CLIMATOLOGICALLY). THIS, COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF BOTH A SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS SURPASSED THAT OF A MORE STEREOTYPICAL SUMMER DAY,
SIMULATED MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES/TALL, SKINNY CAPE SUGGESTIVE OF EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES, PRECLUDING MUCH MORE THAN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT FROM WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
FORM. ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-3" (AND PERHAPS GREATER) OF RAINFALL
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
YESTERDAY, ENOUGH TO GENERATE QUICK/FLASHY RESPONSES OF CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND URBANIZED AREAS THAT ARE FLOOD-PRONE. GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A NEAR CARBON-COPY OF YESTERDAY'S, CARE WILL
NEED TO BE TAKEN TO MONITOR FOR INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE OR
FLASH FLOODING. DUE TO THE NATURE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY, IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH AREAS RECEIVE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, BUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE IF
SITUATED UNDER STORMS THAT INTERACT MOST FAVORABLY WITH THE
PARAMETER SPACE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY ACTIVE, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WEAKLY MORE SUPPRESSIVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE APPRECIABLY COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AREAWIDE (AND POTENTIALLY IN THE 70S FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT ELEVATION), AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3" OF RAIN. LUCKILY, STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL DECREASE OUR OVERALL COVERAGE AND PUT AT
LESS RISK OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD BRING A MORE SERIOUS
FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
BACK INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS
AS WE COME UP ON THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RISE
BACK OUT OF THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S, AND AS RESULT WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS, THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST COMES IN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF HITTING CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FEW-SCT IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD METRO TAF SITES WITH PDS OF
BKN/OVC IFR PSBL THRU 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT BKN LIFR CIGS BETWEEN
09-14Z. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA EXP INTO THE EVENING. ISOLD
-SHRA (AND PERHAPS VERY ISOLD TSRA) PSBL THRU 14Z. BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS IN TSRA FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE 17-22Z. HEAVIEST
PCPN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS IN BR. EXP CIGS TO REMAIN
MVFR INTO THE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO AT LEAST SCT IFR
FOLLOWING CONCLUSION OF FINAL WAVE OF PRECIP. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE E AT 4-8KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 69 87 71 / 80 40 40 10
ATLANTA 81 71 86 72 / 80 40 50 20
BLAIRSVILLE 79 65 83 66 / 50 20 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 82 70 87 70 / 70 30 60 20
COLUMBUS 86 71 89 72 / 70 50 40 10
GAINESVILLE 79 69 86 71 / 80 40 50 10
MACON 85 70 87 71 / 70 60 40 10
ROME 82 69 86 70 / 70 30 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 82 69 86 70 / 80 50 50 20
VIDALIA 88 71 90 73 / 60 50 40 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page