101
FXUS62 KFFC 201127
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
- VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH A LOWER RISK POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME WINTRY
WEATHER.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN AREAS TO THE NORTH
OF I-85 AND IN THE MID 20S IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH. DURING THE
DAYTIME, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1035+ MB) WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A DEEP POOL OF DRY AIR AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UNDER THIS HIGH WILL FAVOR LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE AND HI-RES GUIDANCE (ARW/HRRR) WERE BLENDED IN TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS, GIVING US DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 0 TO -10
DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 6-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN DAILY NORMALS, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OTHERWISE RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE LOW 50S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. EVEN THEN, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CWA
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EST. FORTUNATELY, RECENT RAIN
AND SNOW HAS ADDED SOME MOISTURE TO FUELS AND NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PEAK BETWEEN 8-12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ON ITS BACK SIDE. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MIDWEST. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY, ULTIMATELY MAKING IT MORE BORDERLINE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS WILL BE REACHED. AFTER THE MORNING
BEGINS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHS WILL RISE TO
NEAR DAILY NORMALS, IN THE LOW 50S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND MID TO UPPER
50S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN WITH THE START OF PRECIP MOVING BACK INTO
THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
BY WED EVENING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE OUT OF THE MID TO LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE PUSHING INTO NW GA. THIS SYSTEM ONLY BRINGS
RAIN TO THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH MAYBE SOME MIXED PRECIP
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NE GA MOUNTAINS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK THU MORNING. THIS FRONT LOOSES A LOT OF ITS ENERGY THU BUT
THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS N GA. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE
MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST, ACROSS TX, OVER THE GULF COAST STATES,
THROUGH GA AND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE PAINTING A CONCERNING PICTURE OF WHAT THIS
WEEKEND COULD LOOK LIKE, WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ICE
STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH GA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST STATES.
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE MEETING UP WITH AND OVERRUNNING THIS COLD
AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE, GENERALLY EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND UP THE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WHERE EXACTLY THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE (THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COLD, DRY ARCTIC AIR AND
WARMER GULF AIR) SETS UP WILL GOVERN WHERE PRECIP TRANSITION ZONES
ARE LOCATED.
OTHER VARIABLES THAT WILL BE AT PLAY INCLUDE...
---> HOW STRONG IS COLD AIR DAMMING (THE WEDGE)? THE COLD,
SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WEDGE COULD INCREASE
FROZEN PRECIP INTENSITY/ACCUMULATIONS.
---> WILL UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES LIKE JET STREAKS OR SHORTWAVES AID
IN INCREASING FROZEN PRECIP INTENSITY/ACCUMULATIONS?
---> WHAT PATH DOES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE? THIS WOULD LARGELY DETERMINE IF THIS EVENT IS
MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OR IF THERE IS A GRADIENT OF FROZEN AND
LIQUID PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE STATE.
THE ABOVE VARIABLES WILL LIKELY NOT COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL/HI-RES GUIDANCE UNTIL 1 TO 2 DAYS OUT. SO,
CURRENTLY, WE ARE LEANING MOSTLY ON ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE RATHER
THAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO GAUGE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM.
THE BIG PICTURE AT THIS POINT IS THAT IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, AND RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST
CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY, SO
DO NOT FOCUS ON PREDICTIONS OF ACCUMULATIONS OR TIMING OF PRECIP
TYPE TRANSITIONS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE NW THROUGH THE DAY, STARTING
THE MORNING FROM NW AT 4-7 KTS AND INCREASING TO 7-12 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z, COMING UP ON THE E/SE SIDE AT 4-7
KTS BETWEEN 10-12Z ON WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 23 52 35 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 44 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 30
BLAIRSVILLE 39 20 47 32 / 0 0 0 40
CARTERSVILLE 43 23 53 37 / 0 0 0 50
COLUMBUS 51 27 56 40 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 45 26 49 37 / 0 0 0 30
MACON 50 24 56 38 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 46 23 57 40 / 0 0 0 60
PEACHTREE CITY 46 24 54 37 / 0 0 0 30
VIDALIA 53 29 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....01/MARTIN
AVIATION...KING
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