792
FXUS62 KFFC 231819
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
119 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2021
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 918 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021/
UPDATE...
SOME MINOR TEMP/DEWPT ADJUSTMENTS PER NEAR TERM OB TRENDS LARGELY
ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME LOWER DEWPT MIXING IN
PARTS OF NORTH GA AND ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS BUT FOR
NOW LOOKS TOO BORDERLINE IN RH CRITERIA AND SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH
FUELS TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENT. SHOULD BE A NICE PLEASANT SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON TAP
OTHERWISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT A WIDE EXPANSE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER
AIR HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH AREAL EXTENT IS
LIMITED, FOG IS DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
13Z.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS, FULL SUN
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WENT WITH THE LOWER MAV/MET BLEND FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND
WE THEREFORE GET CLOSE TO FIRE DANGER FOR THE NORTHERN TIER. IT
APPEARS WE WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THE DURATION CRITERIA AND FUEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE PREVENT ISSUANCE.
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK TRANSITIONS FROM
DRY TO WET ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
INITIALLY ON SUNDAY BUT LOWERING BASES WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP. HIGH END CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR
NW PORTIONS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST LIKELY
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POPS WILL THUS BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTICULARLY FAR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
BYPASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
(THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AT THIS POINT, WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK, THOUGH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CLEAR AT LEAST
NORTH GEORGIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL THUS AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
RW
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH INITIAL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
ALTO CIGS BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SOME CIGS
3500-5000 FT IN FROM THE WEST DURING TOMORROW DAYTIME. ANY LOWER
MVFR CIGS AND INCREASED SHRA CHANCES REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FCST
PERIOD MAINLY STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS ON EAST/ESE SIDE 4-8
KTS THRU PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
BAKER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 59 31 55 43 / 0 0 20 60
ATLANTA 59 37 57 46 / 0 0 30 50
BLAIRSVILLE 55 28 49 40 / 0 0 50 90
CARTERSVILLE 59 34 55 43 / 0 0 40 80
COLUMBUS 62 42 60 51 / 0 5 20 20
GAINESVILLE 56 34 51 42 / 0 0 40 80
MACON 61 36 61 49 / 0 5 20 10
ROME 56 32 54 46 / 0 0 40 80
PEACHTREE CITY 60 35 57 46 / 0 0 20 40
VIDALIA 61 40 64 51 / 0 5 10 5
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DEESE/BAKER
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BAKER
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