312
FXUS62 KFFC 201003
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
603 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MEANDERS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY, BUT NO DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA ARE EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING, THE MOST RECOGNIZABLE
FEATURE IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO GINGERLY DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. NHC FORECASTS STRENGTHENING INTO TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA TODAY (MAYBE BY THE TIME YOU'RE READING THIS) WITH A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH, NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH IT WILL
PLAY A BIT OF A ROLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONVERGENCE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO PRIMARILY CENTRAL GEORGIA.
OTHERWISE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS TN/NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY, PERHAPS PROVIDING A BIT MORE IMPETUS FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN
GENERAL, THOUGH, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY IS LIKELY TO ONLY BE OF
THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY, AND MANY SPOTS WILL REMAIN
DRY.
WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH TUESDAY, A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST IS IN STORE. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH THIS WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. AS SUCH, SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
TO LARGELY REMAIN RELEGATED SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY, LIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20
MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN MIDDLE GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
TO-MID 90S PERSISTING. STEAMY 70S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SPOTS WILL NEAR THE 105 HEAT INDEX HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA; HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY COOLING INTO
THE MID-70S (NOT MUCH NOCTURNAL RELIEF), AND DAYTIME DEW POINTS
REACHING THE MID- TO UPPER-70S (VERY HUMID). APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (LOCALLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER),
AND WE MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NOT JUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT OVER EACH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY, WHILE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO DIRECT
IMPACTS LOCALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS IT TURNS WEST
AND MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF REGION.
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT REACHING DOWN TO GEORGIA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, ONLY TAKING 3-4 DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY VS. WEDNESDAY, BUT NOTICEABLY REDUCING DEW
POINTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA (REACHING THE
60S INSTEAD OF THE 70S). TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FRIDAY, BEFORE THE HUMIDITY STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 90
TO 100 DURING THIS POST-FRONTAL PERIOD.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA BY MID-WEEK, GEORGIA WILL BE POSITIONED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ANY TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES RIDING THIS FLOW COULD ACT TO
FOCUS PERIODS OF CONVECTION AT TIMES. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE ON EXACT TIMING AND WHETHER THIS
WILL PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM OUR GENERALLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMER
AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL
FEW/SCT CU 2.5-3 KFT WILL LIFT TO 4-5 KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL PEAK IN COVERAGE 20-00Z. WINDS WILL BE SW 4-6
KT THROUGH THE DAY AT ATL AND AHN SITES, LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH A SHIFT TOWARD SSE EXPECTED BY 09-12Z TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 94 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 93 75 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 86 68 85 70 / 40 10 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 93 74 93 75 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 95 75 92 76 / 20 20 50 10
GAINESVILLE 93 74 92 75 / 20 10 10 10
MACON 94 74 92 75 / 20 20 40 10
ROME 93 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 73 91 74 / 20 10 30 10
VIDALIA 97 75 95 76 / 20 20 40 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...RW
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