640
FXUS62 KFFC 051410
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..MORNING UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, EXISTS FOR NORTH GA TODAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 107 POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A LACK OF NOTABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY CLIMB INTO 80S (OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS) THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE THAT'S MOVING THROUGH MS/AL
HAS ALREADY SPARKED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FAR EAST
AS AUBURN AND COLUMBUS. GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT
THAT'S STILL LOCKED IN PLACE, IT'S LIKELY WE START TO GET ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN ZONES A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE
WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER ALL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL INCREASE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 90S THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WE WILL SEE INCREASED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT THAT PUSHES SE INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE FRONT ACTING AS A CATALYST WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. SPC HAS PLACED NORTH GA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK AREA (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY. BEST TIMEFRAME
FOR CONVECTIVE STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2-10PM. WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME STORMS BEGIN A BIT EARLIER AND LINGER LATER.
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 90S, AND INCREASED MOISTURE,
THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 104 TO 107 DEG RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES MORE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER GEORGIA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA MOST DAYS FUELING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EACH DAY WITH NBM POPS CONSISTENTLY BRINGING HIGHER VALUES
TO FAR NORTHWEST GA WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD.
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN FROM THE WEEKEND, HOT CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S, WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY STILL APPROACH
THE 105 DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 3-8KT RANGE OUT OF
THE W TO SW JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-02Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 96 74 94 73 / 30 40 60 30
ATLANTA 95 75 92 75 / 30 30 70 40
BLAIRSVILLE 88 68 86 67 / 50 30 80 40
CARTERSVILLE 94 73 91 73 / 40 30 80 40
COLUMBUS 95 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 30
GAINESVILLE 95 74 93 73 / 40 30 70 30
MACON 95 75 94 75 / 30 20 20 30
ROME 94 73 91 72 / 40 30 80 40
PEACHTREE CITY 94 73 91 73 / 30 30 60 40
VIDALIA 98 77 97 77 / 30 20 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ036>039-047>051-
059>062-071>076-080>086-092>098-104>113.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....HELLER
AVIATION...01
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