278
FXUS62 KFFC 261024
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST GEORGIA AND MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WITH NO PATTERN CHANGE IN OUR IMMEDIATE FUTURE, THE DAILY WET AND
STORMY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
LINGERING RAINFALL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AMID
THE CONTINUED CONVEYOR OF DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT FORTUNATELY COVERAGE AND INTENSITY (AND RAINFALL RATES) HAVE
BEEN ON A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE THIS
MORNING COMES IN THE WAY OF AN EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH THAT NOW COVERS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BROUGHT MULTIPLE WAVES OF
RAINFALL THAT HAVE CAUSED LOCALIZED AREAS TO PICK UP 5+" OF
RAINFALL, THE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE DAY 1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC FOR TODAY SUPPORTS THIS
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH A BROAD SWATH OF
THE AREA UNDER THE "SLIGHT" CATEGORICAL RISK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, TRAINING/LINGERING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DROP 2-3+" OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY CHARACTERIZED
BY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT,
THOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL MAY BEGIN TO TREND
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
AGAIN, NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BREACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW POOLING A MOIST AIRMASS (PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-2") UP OVER THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THURSDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING ONE OF THE
RELATIVELY DRIER DAYS OF THIS STRETCH OF WET WEATHER, AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND ATTEMPTS TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. DESPITE ITS BEST EFFORTS, WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FORCING AND INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA, AND ALSO BRING PWAT VALUES UP TO AROUND 2", SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH
OF WET WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, ANOTHER FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, THIS PATTERN WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S TO 80S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DROP FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD, BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL DRYING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LIFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD MVFR
BY 15-16Z WITH BREAKS TOWARD VFR MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME
WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. IFR TO LIFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE WINDS
THIS MORNING ARE MORE LIKELY TO TREND TOWARD SSW AFTER 18Z BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TOWARD SSE OR VRB OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 82 65 83 66 / 80 50 60 20
ATLANTA 80 67 82 68 / 90 40 70 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 62 78 62 / 90 60 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 66 83 66 / 80 40 80 30
COLUMBUS 82 67 85 67 / 90 30 60 20
GAINESVILLE 79 66 81 67 / 90 50 70 20
MACON 84 66 85 66 / 90 20 40 20
ROME 80 66 83 66 / 80 40 70 40
PEACHTREE CITY 81 66 83 66 / 90 30 70 20
VIDALIA 89 69 88 69 / 60 50 50 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-
027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>072-078>082-089>094-102>104.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...RW
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