157
FXUS62 KFFC 221106
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
706 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND METRO ATLANTA. PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY IS STARTING OFF VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA THAT APPEAR TO
POPPING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NW GA. WE
STILL HAVE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAYS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED OUT OF THE
MID/SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY THAT IS PUSHING INTO NW GA. ALL OF
THIS COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL AGAIN SEE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.7- 2.0" RANGE. SIMILAR CONCERNS WILL EXIST FOR A
WET MICROBURST IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS ALMOST THE EXACT
SAME AREA OUTLINED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK AREA TODAY WHICH
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
BY THIS EVENING A VERY STRONG WEDGE (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BEGINS
TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NE GA TONIGHT. THIS
RIDGE/WEDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH GOOD
COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AS WE WILL STILL HAVE
A GOOD DEAL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT YOU WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL A DIFFERENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY GETTING UP INTO
THE 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THOSE OF US THAT HAVE BEEN BEGGING FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL
FINALLY BE REWARDED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND! A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL CREATE A TYPICAL 'WEDGE' SETUP INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GA, WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, THEN
SLIGHTLY WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S EACH DAY, WITH
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND
STABILIZING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT FOR 7 DAYS
OUT, WITH MOST MEMBERS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK UP A BIT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTH GA AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NW
GA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE ATL/AHN AREA TAF SITES. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE 4-8KT RANGE. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE CAD WEDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING FRO IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AFTER 06Z WED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 90 67 79 61 / 60 50 30 20
ATLANTA 90 70 83 65 / 50 30 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 82 61 75 56 / 80 20 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 90 68 84 63 / 50 30 50 40
COLUMBUS 93 70 90 68 / 30 10 30 20
GAINESVILLE 87 68 78 62 / 70 40 40 20
MACON 92 69 88 65 / 20 30 30 10
ROME 90 66 84 62 / 50 30 60 50
PEACHTREE CITY 91 68 85 63 / 40 20 30 20
VIDALIA 91 70 89 68 / 20 30 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...01
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