504
FXUS62 KFFC 251144
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO AN EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT
ICE STORM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL TO MANY LOCATIONS.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY WILL BE AN ADDED CONCERN FOR THOSE STILL
WITHOUT POWER AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
- THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE WEDGE HAS PUSHED IN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, PROGRESSING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE COASTLINE AND WESTWARD WITH THE 32 DEGREE LINE
CURRENTLY FROM SWAINSBORO TO EATONTON WESTWARD THROUGH DOWNTOWN ATL
AND UP THROUGH ELLIJAY INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS
TO PUSH FURTHER WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE ARE SEEING
INDICATIONS THAT THIS IS A STRONGER WEDGE. THUS, OUR CURRENT
THINKING CONTINUES TO ALIGN WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS THAT
THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND AND ONLY BE ERODED AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE
RECEIVED MANY REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WE
ARE EXPECTING THESE TO INCREASE AS MORE AREAS REACH DOWN INTO THE
SWEET SPOT FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 IS OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BETWEEN HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
DOWN TOWARDS THE METRO BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND HALF AN INCH
(LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE). WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 20-30MPH ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE ISSUES
AS WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE REPORTS OF ICE.
WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER, SPC HAS SCALED BACK THE RISK WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING HERE. IF WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IT WILL BE IN FOR SW CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. OTHER AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE WEDGED IN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FORECAST:
THE SHORT VERSION:
STILL EXPECTING VERY COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDER
THAN MONDAY MORNING, WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. HOW STRONG ANY WINDS REMAIN WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OR POTENTIAL
EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. FORECAST REMAINS CHILLY,
WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK IN THE 30S AND 40S MOST DAYS, AND
MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANOMALY REMAINS PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND MERGE WITH THE LARGER SYSTEM THAT IS BRINGING OUR
CURRENT ICY NIGHTMARE TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE DEEP
ARCTIC AIRMASS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE SOUTH, BRINGING SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR INTO THE CWA. ENSEMBLES
HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY WELL ALIGNED IN SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND PARTS OF METRO ATLANTA (AND SOME NEGATIVES IN THE
MOUNTAINS). EXTREME COLD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS, WITH
ISSUANCE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
COLD AIRMASS SITS IN PLACE AND MOSTLY JUST HEATS UP A BIT, BUT NOT
TOO MUCH, FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
30S AND 40S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. ANOTHER
SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD AIR MAY BE POSSIBLE AS A SYSTEM SWINGS BY
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME DECENT SPREAD
(NEARLY 15 DEGREES) IN MORNING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE REPRESENTATIVE
OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD FRONT REACHES INTO OUR
AREA. TEMPS REMAIN COOL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER GOING
INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GEFS PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAIN LOW AT 10-15%. THESE ARE NOW
RELATIVELY WELL ALIGNED WITH EURO PROBABILITIES AT THE SAME LEVEL,
AT LEAST ACROSS THE 00Z GUIDANCE. BEST THING IS TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR CONSISTENCY, AND
CONTINUE TO BE WARY OF SINGLE RUNS OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
LUSK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FZRA HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE METRO SITES AND AHN AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 16/17Z. A SWITCHOVER TO
-SHRA IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH AND TEMPS
WARMING WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY 00Z. E WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE W
~23-00Z WHEN THE PRECIP EXITS THE AREA. IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. CSG HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR TSRA AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT 17/18Z.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 35 25 38 13 / 100 60 0 0
ATLANTA 42 23 35 16 / 100 40 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 41 16 29 5 / 100 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 42 19 34 10 / 100 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 27 42 18 / 90 60 0 0
GAINESVILLE 35 24 34 13 / 100 30 0 0
MACON 59 28 43 17 / 90 90 0 0
ROME 48 22 37 15 / 100 20 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 51 22 37 13 / 100 40 0 0
VIDALIA 67 38 50 21 / 50 90 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-043>051-055-057-062.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ001>009-011-012-
019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>072-
078>082-089>094-102-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ041-042-
053-054-056-058>061-068-070>076.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page