558
FXUS62 KFFC 241045
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HAZY SKY WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SMOKE CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, LEADING TO HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT RAINFALL MAY IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE FINAL VESTIGES OF OUR (EXITING) PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
-- AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT -- WILL SUPPORT A CLEAR, WARM,
AND DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SPOTTY/PATCHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES MID-LEVEL FLOW, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE METRO. COVERAGE WILL BE SCANT IF ANYTHING
MATERIALIZES, BUT HAVE BLENDED IN SOME HREF AND ARW GUIDANCE TO
RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE (10-14%). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE, PERHAPS APPROACHING 90
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN TIER. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD HELP DIRECT WILDFIRE SMOKE OFFSHORE/PREVENT
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM BEING SMOKED OUT TO
THE EXTENT OF PREVIOUS DAYS. MILKY AND HAZY SKIES AND PERHAPS
DECREASED AIR QUALITY ARE NEVERTHELESS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AS WILDFIRES
CONTINUE TO BURN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL REBOUND OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN CHANCES, BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA DUE TO VALUES
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30% THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUE TO BE COGNIZANT OF (AND HEED) ANY BURN RESTRICTIONS OR
BANS AS VEGETATION REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM MIDNIGHT ON. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WHERE A DECAYING MCS IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. CAMS SUGGEST
RELATIVELY ANEMIC INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT (SUB-250 J/KG) ALONG WITH
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL FLOW (UNIMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS). IN
GENERAL, EXPECT A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT
FILTERS TO THE SOUTH. RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH TO A HALF OF
AN INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH "HIGHEST" AMOUNTS SKEWED NORTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 (APPROXIMATE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION BEFORE PEAK HEATING IS REACHED), TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID- TO-UPPER 70S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO
AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF LINGERING INSTABILITY. WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MARGINALLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ARE FORECAST
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE COOLER AIR HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. ON SUNDAY,
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND IS
TRENDING STRONGER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
RIDGE TRENDING STRONGER, POPS HAVE COME DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BEING LIMITED TO 15% OR LESS IN NORTH GEORGIA AND 20-30%
IN AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE RIDGE WILL FURTHERMORE
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY WORK WEEK
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CLEARS GEORGIA TO THE EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST, A CAD WEDGE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHEAST GEORGIA, LIMITING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (AND EVEN 60S
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS) COMPARED TO LOW TO MID 80S IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS WEDGE
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA WILL BE BREWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS STRONG TROUGHING ROTATES AROUND A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE MIDWEST, AIDED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO SPREAD
FURTHER EAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHERE THE WEDGE BOUNDARY LINGERS, THERE IS
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE PRESENCE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
AND ITS POSITION AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHERE CONDITIONS ALIGN, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT (MOST LIKELY
ALONG SAID WEDGE BOUNDARY). LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKER
DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A RISK FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT
DEPENDING ON SEVERAL MOVING PARTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL WARRANT CONTINUED MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER
STORMS OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU AT 6-8KFT WILL
TAPER BACK IN BY 15-16Z, ACCOMPANIED PRIMARILY BY HIGH CIRRUS AT
10-25KFT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LOW-END (SUB 15%)
CHCS FOR ISOLD CONVECTION EAST OF THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON (FROM
17Z ON THRU SUNSET), BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION. CHCS FOR -SHRA WILL THUS RE-ENTER THE FCST FOR NORTHERN
TAF SITES LATE PD (GENERALLY 08Z OR LATER) CAPTURED BY A PROB30,
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BKN MVFR CIGS AND LOW-VFR VSBYS IN BR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AT 4-8KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 60 80 58 / 10 10 70 50
ATLANTA 84 62 79 61 / 10 30 80 40
BLAIRSVILLE 78 55 73 52 / 10 30 90 30
CARTERSVILLE 85 60 79 56 / 10 40 90 30
COLUMBUS 86 61 83 62 / 0 20 70 60
GAINESVILLE 82 61 78 58 / 10 20 80 40
MACON 86 60 85 61 / 0 10 60 60
ROME 85 60 79 56 / 10 50 90 30
PEACHTREE CITY 84 60 81 58 / 0 30 80 50
VIDALIA 88 62 89 64 / 10 0 30 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...96
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