205
FXUS62 KFFC 111846
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
- LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH DAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, LIKELY ENDING AROUND 4-5 PM.
OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, UNTIL AROUND 7-8 PM. BEHIND THE SHOWERS, CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AT AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, RANGING BETWEEN NEAR 30 IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID 40S OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE BE IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY, GEORGIA WILL BE POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DAMPENING RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE BE MOVING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL PROMOTE BENIGN WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER BEGINNING THE MORNING IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA (WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA). MINIMUM RH VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25-30%, THOUGH DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
TRENDING DRIER COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS BEING
REACHED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TOWARDS TEXAS, AT WHICH POINT THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST
OF THE SHORTWAVE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH
RESPECT OF THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE DAYTIME
ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS ADVANCING A STRONGER LOW
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AND OTHERS SINKING A WEAKER LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA. IN EITHER OF THESE CASES,
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.2-
1.5") COMBINED WITH BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WHICH LOCATIONS SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW FAST IT TRACKS THROUGH
THE AREA.
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. A WEAK WEDGE SPREADING INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THESE LOCATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THIS TIMING WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE LOW'S TRACK AND
MOVEMENT. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL FAVOR A LATER END TO
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO A NORTHERLY TRACK. AFTER THE LOW EXITS,
BROAD RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BENIGN WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
LINGERING -SHRA AROUND THE ATLANTA METRO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
MVFR (& PATCHY IFR) CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT, BECMG VFR AROUND 20-21Z
ACROSS METRO SITES. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED FOR AHN. FOR MCN/CSG,
-SHRA ARE PSBL FM 19/20Z UNTIL AROUND 23Z, W/ VFR EXP AFT 23-01Z.
THEN VFR PREVAILS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU PD. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE, CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING FOR VFR, HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 36 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 38 62 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 29 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 34 59 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 42 67 41 68 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 37 61 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 40 65 39 65 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 37 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 37 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 44 66 40 66 / 30 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...CRS
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