649
FXUS62 KFFC 140656
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM NOON TO 8 PM ON SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HEAT CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE 100S EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WE START THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. ON A DIFFERENT NIGHT THESE MIGHT BE HAVING AN IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES, BUT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MEANS THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
WARM ANYWAY. OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S, AND THE
TEMPERATURES DIDN'T TAKE LONG TO FALL INTO THOSE VALUES. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS OF SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. RIDGE AXIS HAS
PARKED ITSELF RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE CAN'T BE
ALLOWED TO AT LEAST SUFFER IN A DRY HEAT HERE IN GEORGIA, SO SAID
RIDGE IS QUITE DIRTY, WITH PWATS REMAINING CLOSE TO 2" ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOVER IN THE 70S EVEN ONCE THE AFTERNOON MIXING MACHINE GETS
UP AND RUNNING. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S. PUT THOSE ALL THOSE
THINGS TOGETHER, AND YOU HAVE AN UNFORTUNATE RECIPE FOR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES, WBGT VALUES ABOVE 88 (AND GETTING ABOVE 90 IN SOME
AREAS), AND HEATRISK VALUES THAT RISE INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY
DESPITE BEING IN ONE OF OUR WARMEST MONTHS CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY MEAN THAT RECOVERY FOR THOSE WHO MAY NOT HAVE ACCESS TO A/C
WILL BE LIMITED. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA
FOR POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES
APPROACH OR EXCEED 110F IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT AND LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL INTO THE
70S, THESE MAY BE NECESSARY GOING INTO SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST SOURCE
OF UNCERTAINTY ON AN UPGRADE TO THE WARNING WOULD BE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, WHICH WOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING DURING HOTTEST TIME OF
DAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH PWATS REMAINING ELEVATED, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO STICK AROUND DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL AID.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MOISTURE THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE COLUMN, LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AND UPPER LEVELS ARE WARM.
EXPECTATION IS THAT HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AND STRONG AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL STILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE T. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY THANKS TO LIMITED/NO SHEAR, DOWNDRAFTS WILL
BE LOADED WITH PLENTY OF WATER AND CAPABLE OF CRASHING DOWN WITH
SOME FORCE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND AMPLIFYING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S OVER THE CWA OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-108 RANGE REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MOST OF
OUR CWA THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
BY MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS; HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM
THE MID-AUGUST HEAT. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2.1
INCHES AND OUR AREA RESIDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, THE PROSPECT FOR DIURNAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANY
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE,
THE DETAILS OF JUST HOW CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THE PERIOD WILL BE
SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA IMPACTS. CIGS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ARE ABOVE 10KFT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF NIGHT.
WINDS ARE GOING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM, BUT ARE STILL FROM NW WHEN
PICKING UP TO 4 OR 5 KTS. WINDS REMAIN W TO NW TOMORROW AT 4-8
KTS. CU FIELD DEVELOPS IN AFTERNOON AND TSRA CHANCES RETURN IN
18-23Z WINDOW FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 97 75 99 75 / 20 10 40 10
ATLANTA 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 30 0
CARTERSVILLE 94 75 96 75 / 30 10 20 0
COLUMBUS 96 77 96 77 / 40 10 40 10
GAINESVILLE 95 76 96 76 / 20 10 30 10
MACON 95 75 96 76 / 40 10 40 10
ROME 94 75 95 75 / 30 10 20 0
PEACHTREE CITY 94 75 95 75 / 40 10 30 10
VIDALIA 97 76 98 76 / 20 20 30 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...LUSK
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