479
FXUS62 KFFC 121921
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 6PM DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. ANOTHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL GUIDE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE TEMPORARY INFLUX OF
MOISTURE, EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS AT THE SURFACE.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
FUEL MOISTURE AND CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NE-N WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NE-E ON FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN LIGHT,
LIMITING THE DEW POINT IMPROVEMENTS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AS A RESULT, HAVE BLENDED NBM AND NBM10 GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY TO
PRODUCE WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE REPRESENTATIVE DEW POINT FORECAST IN
THE GRIDS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE-NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE MAX/MIN VALUES ARE RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BEGINS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS TEXAS, DISPLACING AN UPPER RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SETTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WITHIN WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ARKLATEX TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN PORTIONS OF WEST GEORGIA AFTER SUNSET,
ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT AND THE LOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY, FAVORING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AMPLE MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
PWATS BETWEEN 1.2-1.5") COMBINED WITH BROAD FORCING AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE WITH THE TREND OF A MORE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW, AND ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.5", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PRECIPITATION TRAINS
OVER COMMON LOCATIONS, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WEAK WEDGE SPREADING INTO
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER UNDERNEATH, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING , THOUGH THIS TIMING WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE LOW'S
TRACK AND MOVEMENT. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL FAVOR A LATER END TO
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO A NORTHERLY TRACK. AFTER THE LOW EXITS,
BROAD RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BENIGN WEATHER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND AS MUCH AS 14-
18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO THE NORTH OF I-20. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DAMPEN, GIVING WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THIS FLOW COULD BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 25% AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER STILL, RISING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY SKC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. NW
WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH THE NNE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NE-E AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 8KT OR LESS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 37 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 40 62 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 29 57 31 59 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 35 62 37 64 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 40 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 37 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 38 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 37 66 39 69 / 10 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 37 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 39 66 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...31
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