285
FXUS62 KFFC 050025
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH THREATS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL
NORMS (MID-80S TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE VERY NEARLY ATOP THE
STATE OF GEORGIA, SEEN PLAINLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE
ONGOING CONVECTION SWIRLS COUNTER-CLOCKWISE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LARGELY SEASONABLE (~1.7"), BUT VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NEAR-
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE WINDS IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAVE SUPPORTED SLOW TO EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" HOUR (AND OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 2.5" AN
HOUR) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED
LOCATIONS/AREAS WITH HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF IMPERVIOUS SURFACES.
CONVECTION KICKED OFF OVER THE ATLANTA METRO EARLIER THIS MORNING,
AND ANY SUBSEQUENT REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK RESPONSES.
SEVERE CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AND ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE ABSENCE
OF MEANINGFUL KINEMATICS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR AN
ERRANT SEVERE STORM BEING AN ESPECIALLY WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFT.
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING -- GENERALLY FOLLOWING
THE DIURNAL CYCLE -- GIVING WAY TO CHANCES FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED TOMORROW ASIDE FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO WEAKEN,
SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING/FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER OUR CWA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE AS IT SHIFTS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
CONTINUATION OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DECENT PWATS RANGING FROM
1.5-2.0" AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, AMPLE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE HIGHER HEIGHTS
BUILD BY LATE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN CLOSER TO OUR AREA. WHILE
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, IN ADDITION TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WITH PROLONGED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND PATCHY FG
FROM 09-14Z ACROSS ATL AREA SITES, AND IS MOST LIKELY AROUND AHN.
LOW VFR TO SCT MVFR CU FIELDS AND SCT SHRA DEVELOP AFTER 16Z,
WITH TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 4-6KTS OUT OF THE SSW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WED AM CIGS. HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 85 70 88 / 50 70 40 50
ATLANTA 71 86 72 88 / 40 70 20 50
BLAIRSVILLE 65 80 66 82 / 30 70 30 90
CARTERSVILLE 70 87 71 89 / 30 70 20 60
COLUMBUS 72 90 73 92 / 20 40 10 20
GAINESVILLE 69 83 70 86 / 50 70 30 70
MACON 71 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 30
ROME 69 87 70 89 / 20 60 20 60
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 70 89 / 30 70 20 40
VIDALIA 72 93 73 93 / 20 20 30 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...CULVER
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