199
FXUS62 KFFC 041835
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK (WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY). A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH WINDS
AND FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
ANOTHER LOVELY DAY WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO THE
EAST, BRINGING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BUT SURELY BEGIN TO RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SETTING UP
FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THAT YOU CAN READ ALL ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. ALOFT, CWA GETS CAUGHT ON TUESDAY BETWEEN
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POLAR JET TO THE NORTH, AND CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE SW, WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING ZONAL FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. HIGH TOMORROW WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, CONTINUING THE SLOW WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK STEMS MOSTLY FROM LOWER LEVEL
FLOW AND UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS
WE MOVE IN RANGE OF CAMS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. THAT SAID,
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
NORTHWARD SURGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF WILL BE STRONG, WITH 850MB LLJ
FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KTS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL. ENSEMBLE PWATS SHOW AN INTER-QUARTILE RANGE OF ~1.5
TO 1.7" ACROSS NORTHWEST GA. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY PUTS THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT ABOUT 1.4" AND THE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED OF AROUND 1.7". THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH RAINFALL
EFFICIENCY TO TAP INTO THIS WILL BE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE
AND THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SHOULD THE LINE BE SLOWED FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK IN
NORTHWEST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE A CAREFUL BALANCE THOUGH, AS TOO MUCH CAPE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP STRONGER OUTFLOW AND DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE LINE AND POSE
A WIND GUST HAZARD. IDEALLY, CAPE VALUES WILL SUFFER FROM OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND STORM MOTION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINS RATHER THAN PATCHY HEAVY RAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LINE
MOVES SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE, AND BETTER MAINTAINED, FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
OVERALL TROUGH FEATURE WHICH IS ABLE TO BRING LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED LOW END POPS FROM THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL, AND PORTIONS OF NORTH, GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FIRST (LATE WEEKEND) AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OFF THE CUT-OFF
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOPEFULLY THIS WETTER PERIOD WILL BENEFIT
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WARM, BUT COOL WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE
70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS, OTHERWISE NO
CIGS, VSBY, OR WX CONCERNS THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE SW
BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES, GENERALLY 4-8 KTS. THEY SHOULD GO LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. DURING THE EARLY MORNING, PREDOMINATE WIND
DIRECTION MAY BRIEFLY GO TO EAST SIDE BEFORE GOING TO THE WEST
SIDE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON (THIS IS PRIMARILY IMPACTFUL FOR
KATL).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 51 82 60 85 / 0 0 10 30
ATLANTA 54 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 48 75 56 74 / 0 10 40 70
CARTERSVILLE 51 80 61 82 / 0 10 20 60
COLUMBUS 51 82 59 87 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 52 80 61 81 / 0 10 20 50
MACON 52 83 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 51 80 61 82 / 0 10 30 70
PEACHTREE CITY 50 81 59 85 / 0 0 0 30
VIDALIA 56 85 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...LUSK
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