599
FXUS62 KFFC 041840
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY INTO MONDAY.
- DRIER AND LARGELY COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
WE ARE FINALLY SEEING RAIN BUILD IN ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. PWAT ON THE
MORNING SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AT JUST ABOVE 2" WITH A PROFILE THAT
IS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC (WITH A TOUCH OF WARMING ALOFT) THROUGH
THE COLUMN. THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
WEDGE/CAD THAT HAS PUSHED INTO NE GA AND MOSTLY STALLED, WHICH IS
STILL MOIST BUT NATURALLY DRIER JUST AS A BY-PRODUCT OF BEING
COOLER. THE QUESTION TO ASK MAY BE "WHAT HAS TAKEN SO LONG FOR THE
RAIN TO GET GOING OUTSIDE A FEW LOCATIONS" AND THE ANSWER SEEMS
TO BE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PRETTY MUCH
EVERYTHING SUB-700MB TO BE STAGNANT. CAN'T GET ISENTROPIC LIFT
GOING IF THE AIR ISN'T REALLY MOVING. THAT IS FINALLY CHANGING AS
RAIN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TRANSPORT.
SO, THE REST OF THE DAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE ADVERTISED RAINY DAY,
THOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS CONSISTENT OR STEADY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN, WITH MOST
AREAS LOOKING AT 1-2" THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN ACROSS HREF AND REFS, BUT CAMS LOOK TO BE OVER-MIXED
AND UNDERDONE WITH THE MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP WITHIN THE SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE IS A SMALL DA IMPACT
GIVEN ONGOING RADAR OUTAGE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES WHICH DO SEE MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY - FOR INSTANCE, PARTS OF COBB COUNTY SAW
UPWARDS OF 2" THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE STEADY RAIN MOVED IN.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE RAIN MAY BE A BIT HEAVIER AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
WEDGE/CAD HAS LIKELY STALLED WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE MOVING
OFF THE COAST. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LOCK IT IN PLACE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEANINGFUL PROCESSES TO BREAK DOWN THE INVERSION UNTIL A BIT OF CAA
ADVECTION MOVES ABOVE IT TONIGHT AND BREAKS DOWN THE INVERSION.
850MB WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, BRINGING AN END TO THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIKELY AN END TO PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE
SURFACE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STRUGGLE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA,
HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS LAGS BEHIND
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND NE. THIS MAKES THINGS INTERESTING ON MONDAY - TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS, BUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY
REMAIN EVEN INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. SO HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S, BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
OVERALL VERTICAL PROFILE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WON'T BE CONDUCIVE TO
ANY MORE RAIN MOST LIKELY, BUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, THINGS WILL
LOOK INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND WE WILL SEE JUST HOW FAR NORTH
WE GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD REMOVE SOME OF
THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN PARTS
OF EAST CENTRAL GA (MAINLY PARTS OF TOOMBS, MONTGOMERY, WHEELER, AND
TELFAIR).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. DRY
AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO AUGUSTA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH 40'S LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY, RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE CWA DROP TO NEARLY ZERO.
CURRENTLY THE NHC IS KEEPING AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN
THAT THEY'RE GIVING A 30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT FOR. AS OF WRITING
THIS, ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS ARE DEVELOPING IT INTO SOME KIND OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF
COAST EAST OF NOLA. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ONLY SPECULATION. FOR NOW WE'VE KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN THE GRID FOR SATURDAY.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPING TROPICS. FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S
DISCUSSION AND FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SHRA SHOULD BEGIN AT ATL AND OTHER METRO TAF SITES SHORTLY, WHILE
SHRA IMPACTS ARE IN PLACE ALREADY AT OTHER SITES. SHRA WILL BECOME
MORE STEADY RA INTO EVENING HOURS, COMING TO AN END IN METRO TAF
SITES BY AROUND 06-08Z BY CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATE. CIG IMPACTS
LOOK TO REMAIN MVFR UNTIL AFTER DARK (00Z) WHEN THEY SHOULD LOWER
TO AROUND IFR, REMAINING UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BEGIN. WINDS REMAIN ON EAST SIDE THROUGH PERIOD, 4-8 KTS AT
MOST SITES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 78 57 76 / 50 10 0 0
ATLANTA 67 79 62 77 / 60 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 78 51 75 / 20 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 65 82 59 80 / 40 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 68 81 64 81 / 80 20 10 0
GAINESVILLE 66 78 58 75 / 40 10 0 0
MACON 66 79 61 79 / 90 40 10 10
ROME 63 82 56 81 / 40 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 65 80 58 78 / 70 10 0 0
VIDALIA 69 76 64 77 / 100 80 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...LUSK
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