434
FXUS62 KFFC 160001
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 752 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY MONDAY.
- DAMAGING WINDS (60+ MPH) AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A VERY ACTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A DYNAMIC
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED
IN SHORT ORDER BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. FIRST THINGS FIRST,
LET'S START OFF WITH WHAT'S NEW:
1.) THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC NOW EXPANDS THE
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) TO CONNECT WITH THE LARGER ENHANCED TO
THE NORTH. THIS NOW INCLUDES WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GA.
THE THREAT FOR PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
THOUGH THE RISK AND CONFIDENCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN NORTHWEST GA
HAS INCREASED (COULD SEE 70+ MPH WINDS IN SOME POCKETS).
2.) THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS ALSO SEEN AN EXPANSION OF
THE ENHANCED RISK TO NOW INCLUDE EAST-CENTRAL GA FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AREA HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN EXPECTED DUE
TO THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE, HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LIKELY IMPACT
INSTABILITY TOMORROW WITH THE WAA.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING:
OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING QLCS THAT WILL BE RAPIDLY RACING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT KINEMATICS SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS. CAPE VALUES IN NORTH GEORGIA
WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL LIMITING FACTOR (GENERALLY LESS THAN 800
J/KG) WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A RELATIVELY REDUCED TORNADO THREAT
(COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS IN THIS SYSTEM). BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOS
ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF I85, JUST NOT THE
MAIN HAZARD. FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85,
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WX. CAPE VALUES
UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH OF OVER 200 M2/S2 WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CELLULAR FORMATION WITHIN THE LINE (AS WELL
AS AHEAD OF IT). MODELS DIVERGE ON A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT FACTORS
THROUGH. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND AL WHICH MAY SUPPORT SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
SLOW THE FRONT SOUTH OF I85 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WOULD GIVE MORE TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS
WELL AS ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS TO MOVE MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TO ROUND OUT HODOGRAPHS. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION AND THUS A HIGHER TOR THREAT. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE A GENERAL MIX OF THE TWO WITH POTENTIALLY A CLASSIC
"STRING OF PEARLS"-ESQUE SET UP. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL REQUIRE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR BY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURE MAY DROP FAST
ENOUGH THAT SECONDARY FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
BRIEF (AS THEY ZIP ALONG WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW).
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 30+
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD CALM SLOWLY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY, HOWEVER WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO NEAR 20 FOR MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL, WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER FREEZE
PRODUCT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER-WISE WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING MUCH COOLER AND TRENDING WARMER BY THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, A MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 20S IN NORTH GA, AND UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL GA, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING THE 'FEELS-LIKE' TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S,
WHICH WILL FEEL VERY COLD AFTER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, AS SPRING VEGETATION AND CROPS
WOULD BE AT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR DAMAGE FROM THE HARD FREEZE.
WARMING TREND AND DRY MID TO LATE WEEK:
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A VERY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL START TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND
SPREAD INTO OUR AREA, KICKING OUT THE COLD AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 70S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS CLIMBING BACK UP TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY, AND 50S BY SATURDAY. BETWEEN THE DRY NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10% THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 050-060. SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AFTER 04Z, GRADUALLY
INCREASING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 06Z
AT THE ATL METRO SITES. A LINE OF SHRA IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AT
ATL AROUND 09Z, WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
BETWEEN 09-12Z. AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF TSRA, TRAILING SHRA AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCT IFR LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE MVFR DECK BETWEEN
14-18Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORECAST BY 18Z AND CONTINUING TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER
08-09Z WILL BE 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS, SHIFTING FROM SW
TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT, BY AROUND 14Z AT ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 58 63 28 48 / 60 80 0 0
ATLANTA 51 56 29 47 / 80 80 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 47 53 19 40 / 90 80 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 46 51 26 46 / 90 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 60 30 52 / 70 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 53 59 27 46 / 80 90 0 0
MACON 63 66 30 52 / 50 80 0 0
ROME 48 53 28 50 / 90 50 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 51 56 27 49 / 80 80 0 0
VIDALIA 66 72 33 53 / 40 80 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...KING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page