792  
FXUS62 KFFC 231819  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
119 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2021  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 918 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
SOME MINOR TEMP/DEWPT ADJUSTMENTS PER NEAR TERM OB TRENDS LARGELY  
ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME LOWER DEWPT MIXING IN  
PARTS OF NORTH GA AND ANY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS BUT FOR  
NOW LOOKS TOO BORDERLINE IN RH CRITERIA AND SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH  
FUELS TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENT. SHOULD BE A NICE PLEASANT SATURDAY  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON TAP  
OTHERWISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...  
 
BAKER  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BRIDGES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT A WIDE EXPANSE TO AFFECT THE  
LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER  
AIR HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH AREAL EXTENT IS  
LIMITED, FOG IS DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH  
13Z.  
 
ALTHOUGH OVERALL IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS, FULL SUN  
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S. WENT WITH THE LOWER MAV/MET BLEND FOR THE DEWPOINTS AND  
WE THEREFORE GET CLOSE TO FIRE DANGER FOR THE NORTHERN TIER. IT  
APPEARS WE WILL NOT QUITE MAKE THE DURATION CRITERIA AND FUEL  
MOISTURE WILL LIKEWISE PREVENT ISSUANCE.  
 
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK TRANSITIONS FROM  
DRY TO WET ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
INITIALLY ON SUNDAY BUT LOWERING BASES WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR  
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP. HIGH END CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR  
NW PORTIONS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST LIKELY  
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.  
 
DEESE  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT  
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW  
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POPS WILL THUS BE  
MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTICULARLY FAR NORTH GEORGIA  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE ENTIRE AREA  
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE  
SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL  
BYPASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT  
(THOUGH MARGINAL) INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME  
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AT THIS POINT, WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT AN  
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK, THOUGH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG  
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CLEAR AT LEAST  
NORTH GEORGIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES  
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE SHORT LIVED,  
HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL THUS AGAIN  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD,  
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
RW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH INITIAL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME  
ALTO CIGS BUILD IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SOME CIGS  
3500-5000 FT IN FROM THE WEST DURING TOMORROW DAYTIME. ANY LOWER  
MVFR CIGS AND INCREASED SHRA CHANCES REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FCST  
PERIOD MAINLY STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS ON EAST/ESE SIDE 4-8  
KTS THRU PERIOD.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
BAKER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 59 31 55 43 / 0 0 20 60  
ATLANTA 59 37 57 46 / 0 0 30 50  
BLAIRSVILLE 55 28 49 40 / 0 0 50 90  
CARTERSVILLE 59 34 55 43 / 0 0 40 80  
COLUMBUS 62 42 60 51 / 0 5 20 20  
GAINESVILLE 56 34 51 42 / 0 0 40 80  
MACON 61 36 61 49 / 0 5 20 10  
ROME 56 32 54 46 / 0 0 40 80  
PEACHTREE CITY 60 35 57 46 / 0 0 20 40  
VIDALIA 61 40 64 51 / 0 5 10 5  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEESE/BAKER  
LONG TERM....RW  
AVIATION...BAKER  
 
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