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FXUS62 KFFC 061853
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
AGAIN BRINGING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH THREATS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL
NORMS (MID-80S TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY POPPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AT LEAST ONE SEVERE WARNING ALREADY IN EASTERN GEORGIA. CLOUD
COVER AND SOME MORNING SHOWERS HAVE CREATED AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE THE METRO AND NORTH GEORGIA
HAVE REMAINED A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO MOSTLY CLOUD FREE CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SPC SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE WELL OVER 2500 J/KG
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WHILE NORTH GEORGIA REMAINS NEAR OR BELOW 2000
J/KG - AND SBCAPE SHOWS EVEN STARKER CONTRAST. PWATS ARE A BIT
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH AXIS OF 2"+ ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND
STRETCHING BACK INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
MINIMAL AS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE STUCK BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE EAST AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH INSTABILITY AXIS AND OTHER OUTFLOW PROVIDING SOME INITIAL FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PUT
ALL THE ABOVE TOGETHER - EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BEING BRIEFLY SEVERE AS WE'VE ALREADY SEEN WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE TALLEST STORMS
QUICKLY CRASH BACK DOWN WITHIN THE HIGH PWAT AIRMASS. WITH LACK OF
SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE AROUND AGAIN.
EXPECT HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD MEET OR EXCEED 2" PER HOUR.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OR PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT STORMS IN TERMS
OF LONGEVITY.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR NEAR THE SURFACE POSSIBLY AS BYPRODUCT OF
OUTFLOW FROM COMBINED STORMS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR THE IDEA OF A CORRIDOR OF LOWER VISIBILITIES (POSSIBLE FOG) OR
AT LEAST LOWER CLOUDS SETTING UP THROUGH HERE. THE FORMER COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACTS TO MORNING COMMUTE. BY AFTERNOON, WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO WRAP ITS WAY AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH,
BRINGING SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR LONG-TERM OUTLOOK AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FIRMLY
LOCKED INTO THE SUMMERTIME REGIME. THE INFLUENCES OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL ENSURE A VARYING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SETUP WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED PWATS RANGING FROM 1.5-2" AND POP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-50% RANGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS. ONE HOPEFUL
OUTCOME OF THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIMITING THE
RISE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN AREAS BY THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS INDICES RISE INTO TRIPLE-DIGIT
TERRITORY, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD. SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY SHRA
HAVE LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS METRO TAF
SITES SO FAR. STORMS MAY NOT FIRE TILL LATER (CLOSER TO 00Z) AS A
RESULT OF THIS, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR
AREA. LOW CIGS COULD IMPACT METRO TAF SITES TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN
SOME UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY IF STORM/RAIN COVERAGE ISN'T AS MUCH
AS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. IFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE. STORM CHANCES RETURN
DURING AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH PERIOD,
GENERALLY UNDER 7 KTS, VRB THOUGH ON EAST SIDE WHEN NOT INFLUENCED
BY TSTORM OUTFLOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON STORM TIMING (SEE ABOVE), MEDIUM
OVERNIGHT CIGS, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 89 70 90 / 50 30 30 40
ATLANTA 72 89 73 90 / 40 40 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 65 82 66 83 / 30 60 30 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 89 71 90 / 30 50 20 50
COLUMBUS 73 92 74 93 / 30 20 10 30
GAINESVILLE 70 87 71 88 / 40 40 30 50
MACON 71 91 72 92 / 30 20 10 30
ROME 70 89 70 90 / 20 40 20 50
PEACHTREE CITY 70 89 71 90 / 40 40 20 30
VIDALIA 72 93 73 92 / 20 20 20 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...LUSK
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