353  
FXUS62 KFFC 142348  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
   
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 515 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022/  
   
.EARLY EVENING UPDATE
 
 
UPDATE...  
 
ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER JUST  
EAST OF ATHENS WHERE A LOCAL BOUNDARY AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING  
HAVE PERMITTED SOME VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION TO TAKE OFF. COULD  
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN FORM ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MACON TO  
COLUMBUS DUE TO SIMILAR REASONS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON TRACK  
IN OUR LOVELY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS - SOMETHING WE DON'T GET TO  
OFTEN ENJOY IN AUGUST IN GEORGIA.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022/  
   
AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...  
 
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LATE  
SUMMER. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN  
YESTERDAY AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY IS  
KEEPING IT FEELING FAIRLY PLEASANT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.  
 
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF  
AN INCOMING SYSTEM. A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE APPALACHIANS  
INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO  
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE SEASONALLY MOIST  
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HI-RES  
CAMS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR MORE ROBUST  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK FRONT  
DROPS SOUTHWARD. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN  
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  
 
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE  
WARMER SIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON, RETURNING BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR  
MOST. THESE WARMER HIGHS COMBINED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING  
BACK A MORE TYPICAL HUMID "SUMMERY" FEEL.  
 
RW  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE ATLANTIC  
COAST AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS, WHICH WILL SET GEORGIA UP IN A  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING  
THE UPPER FLOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED  
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER,  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY, LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE UPPER  
FLOW WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOISTURE-STARVED AIRMASS, WHICH WILL KEEP  
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF EAST  
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME, POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS  
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-  
END CHANCE IN CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA ON TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN.  
 
A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,  
WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH  
GETS AMPLIFIED ON THE WESTERN SIDE AND DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A  
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT  
BACK INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
THUS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY,  
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PVA ON THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE  
MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK-SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KTS ON THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED  
TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST ON TUESDAY, IN  
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW TO MID 90S IN  
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DUE  
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WILL  
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL BY NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
KING  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD FOR CIGS AND VSBY. ANY REMAINING  
CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH ONLY SOME  
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FEW TO SCT CU FIELD AT 035-055 WILL  
REDEVELOP TOMMORROW AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA AT MOST TAF  
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH TIMING AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN ON WEST SIDE, PICKING UP TO 7-11 KTS DURING AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
LUSK  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 69 91 69 88 / 0 30 30 10  
ATLANTA 71 92 70 90 / 0 30 20 10  
BLAIRSVILLE 65 84 62 83 / 5 20 20 10  
CARTERSVILLE 70 91 67 88 / 0 20 20 5  
COLUMBUS 71 94 73 94 / 0 30 30 20  
GAINESVILLE 70 89 68 87 / 0 30 20 10  
MACON 69 94 72 94 / 0 20 30 20  
ROME 70 93 69 90 / 0 20 10 5  
PEACHTREE CITY 70 92 69 91 / 0 30 30 10  
VIDALIA 68 93 73 93 / 0 10 20 40  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....KING  
AVIATION...LUSK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page