601
FXUS62 KFFC 271429 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
929 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
BDL
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 635 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS GIVING MUCH OF NORTH
AND WEST GA CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH.
EXPECT THE FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER LATER THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY AREA ON FRIDAY. POPS RETURN TO NORTH GA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FRIDAY MORNING.
41
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE EAST COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA, ENDING ON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHTER QPF GUIDANCE AMOUNTS,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
AND SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK
ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW THAT
DOES FALL MAY FREEZE OVERNIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BRINGING IN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE CWA WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS DUE TO SHORTWAVE WAVE
PERTURBATIONS IN A BRIEF RIDGE.
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE CWA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING
DISCREPANCIES FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CONTINUATION OF A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF/NEAR CUT-OFF
LOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING, BUT IS THEN ABSORBED
INTO THE TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD,A SURFACE LOW
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED POPS TO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDER WAS ADDED TO GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO CAPE VALUES APPROXIMATELY 300 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO END THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MORGAN
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS IN 035-050 RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
THOUGH PATCHY MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING FOR CLEARING OF
CEILINGS.
41
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 49 31 53 35 / 0 0 10 10
ATLANTA 46 32 52 35 / 0 0 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 41 27 44 28 / 0 10 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 47 30 51 33 / 0 5 20 20
COLUMBUS 51 31 58 38 / 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 45 32 49 33 / 0 5 10 10
MACON 51 30 57 37 / 0 0 10 10
ROME 47 31 52 33 / 0 5 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 48 30 55 35 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 53 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 5
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BDL
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