834
FXUS62 KFFC 071858
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATE FRIDAY.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE ISAIAS LEADS TO
A CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WE
WILL SEE OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS HEIGHTS RISE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TODAY AND THEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
THURSDAY WHICH ARE ~10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON
SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN WITH PRECIP FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GA. BY DAYBREAK FRI THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AND CENTERED DUE SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
INTENSITY, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE STORM BUT THINGS APPEAR TO BE
COMING TOGETHER FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE AL/FL
BORDER BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z SAT MORNING AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH AL SAT
WITH ITS REMNANT MOVING UP INTO KY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SETTING UP AS A WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO NE
GA. THIS RIDGE/WEDGE WILL ACT AS A STEERING MECHANISM AND HELP TO
KEEP THE CENTER OF ISAIAS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PUT GA ON THE MORE
ACTIVE SIDE OF THE STORM WITH INCREASED WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT QPF SHOWING 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE
STATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP FRI
NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN HE 10-15MPH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SAT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20MPH RANGE
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 40MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE/WEDGE TO THE NE AND
ISAIAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AL. LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS PEAK SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN TRAIL OFF SAT NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
BY SUN AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA AS
A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER EAST TX BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE MS/AL
GULF COAST. THE EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM ALSO BEGINS TO BRING IN
SOME DRIER AIR FROM THIS RIDGE CLEARING THINGS OUT ACROSS GA
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY MON MORNING THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL AND SHOULD KEEP THINGS WARM AND DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
MOSTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E
AT 5-8KT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT AND
THEN PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW ~12Z AT 3-6KT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
BACK E TOMORROW AFTERNOON ~18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 54 86 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 86 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 51 83 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 54 88 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 87 63 80 / 0 0 0 20
GAINESVILLE 58 86 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 55 87 60 81 / 0 0 0 20
ROME 52 88 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 53 87 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 61 84 64 77 / 0 0 0 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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