258
FXUS62 KFFC 211821
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY
FUELS AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEK DESPITE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY, USHERING IN A WETTER
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWCASE THE BACK DOOR FRONT
THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THESE WINDS
REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AT UNDER 10 MPH. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD HAVE DENSE CIRRUS IN PLACE BY THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT OUR UNTIL 8PM FOR LOW RHS, DRY FUELS, AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. RHS ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30%
RANGE AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW, WINDS TURN TOWARDS THE SW WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
SETTING UP IN THE FORM OF A CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON, RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN TANK INTO THE 20-30% RANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED AFTER THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES. TEMPS AGAIN RISE
INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AT ~10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LONG TERM, RISING INTO
THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OUR
TREND OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH GIVING
US THE FIRST CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL RAIN IN A LONG TIME. IT WILL KICK
OF A RAINY PERIOD THAT WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SE. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WEATHER,
PRIMARILY ACROSS NW GEORGIA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING WILL BE
THE REAL DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE SEVERE RISK. A LATE AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL TIME WILL ALLOW DECENT INSTABILITY TO BUILD AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND PULL MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF. STORM MODE APPEARS TO
BE LINEAR, AND WILL LIKELY PRESENT A WIND THREAT IF IT MATERIALIZES.
AFTER SATURDAY, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES BECOME
LIKELY AGAIN AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO AS LONG AS THE LIFTING
MECHANISM REMAINS IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON, TO LINGER
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SATURDAY TO
TUESDAY RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
POTENTIALLY TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE DENSE CIRRUS FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
A FEW TO SCT CU FIELD TOMORROW AT ~7-8KFT BEFORE CLEARING INTO
TOMORROW OVERNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE E AT 4-6KT SHOULD SWITCH TO THE
SW BY ~5Z TONIGHT AND REMAIN SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 52 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 82 57 83 / 0 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 48 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 53 83 52 84 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 54 82 55 82 / 0 10 0 0
MACON 52 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 51 84 51 85 / 0 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 52 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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