119
FXUS62 KFFC 261854
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN
KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL GA PRECIPITATION FREE. THE RIDGE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND RECENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY WED MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN E TO NERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND KEEP THINGS DRY AS WELL. THIS EASTERLY FLOW
IS BRINGING IN A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP CHANCES...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG. MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE, WE GET TO TALK ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL BREAK IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN THAT BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST (JUST IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN, OF
COURSE).
THE WORK-WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK SUNNY AND MILD WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DAILY LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THERE
WILL BE SOME VARIATIONS OF A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO SOME MOVING
PIECES ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE OVERALL
SENSIBLE WEATHER WON'T FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT DAY TO DAY. ANOTHER
POTENT TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
1035 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, BRING ANOTHER
PSUEDO-WEDGE AIRMASS DIVING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY, FALL AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND
COULD EVEN KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 OR EVEN THE UPPER 60S IN SOME
PLACES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND WILL SLOWLY WARM A BIT, BRINGING US INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (MAYBE TOUCHING A FEW 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY).
THIS AIRMASS IS DRY AND NEVER REALLY ACCESSES ANY MOISTURE THANKS TO
BROAD SURFACE LOW THAT CONTINUES TO CHURN JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, SO NO PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED.
THIS ALL MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT GOING INTO SATURDAY. THE PLAYERS
WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN POLAR JET IN
THE NORTHEAST, BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW.
UNSURPRISINGLY, UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGH, AS THE
TIMING OF EACH OF THESE PLAYERS MAY HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON WHAT WE SEE.
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE SCENARIO WHICH SEEMS TO DELIVER RAIN
HAS A FASTER TIMING OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT RUNS INTO ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEDGE/CAD ACROSS US, EVEN IF
WEAK. THIS ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE BROADER LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATES SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE
15%-25% POPS SHOWING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SEEMS IN
LINE WITH THE NUMBER OF MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING LIKE THE ABOVE. THE
REST PUSH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER DUE TO SHORT WAVE TIMING BEING
SLOWER, INITIAL WAVE BEING EVEN WEAKER, ETC. SADLY, THIS MEANS WE
CAN NO LONGER SAY HALLOWEEN WILL FOR SURE BE DRY, AND INSTEAD WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH THINGS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
EXPECTED. E TO NE WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 43 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 48 74 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 43 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 43 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 47 74 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 43 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 41 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 48 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...01
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