061
FXUS62 KFFC 140616
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS OF AROUND 1 PM, A CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
GEORGIA AS TEMPS SIT IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES CURRENTLY TOP OUT AT AROUND
103F. AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK HEATING HOURS, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
RISING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, HIGHEST IN THE SE PORTION OF THE
CWA. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA.
WITHOUT MUCH FORCING, SHOWER CHANCE ARE LARGELY REFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES REMAINING AT OR BELOW
20%. AS SUCH, ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO TOMORROW WHERE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THROUGH THE NIGHT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NE CANADA. COME TOMORROW MORNING, WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION.
WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FROM THE WSW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MORNING RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PWATS
AND DEW POINTS REMAINING ELEVATED.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 1 PM JUST
TO OUR NW AND THEN MOVE INTO NW GA. IN THE LAST MODEL CYCLE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS, HAS
BECOME A CONCERN. MORNING CAMS SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED
V PROFILE BY MIDDAY WITH DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE WEAK SHEAR
MAY INHIBIT LONG TRACK SEVERE STORMS, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR QUICK DOWNBURSTS THAT COULD EASILY PRODUCT SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF GA TOMORROW. THE MOIST PROFILE WILL MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL A SECONDARY THREAT WITH ALL STORMS, WITH ANY TRAINING
CONVECTION POSING A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN THE SEVERE THREAT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
WILL PROGRESS. THE METRO ATL AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE WHERE
STORMS MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AND PLEASE MAKE SURE TO
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, SOUTHERN
CONUS WILL BE SITUATED AT THE BASE OF BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING,
WITHIN A REGIME OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITH COMPARABLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THE KEY PLAYER FOR MUCH OF
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, POISED TO BREACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE STATE. BOLSTERED
LIFT/FORCING ALONG THE ANCHORING FRONT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STREAMING IN OFF OF THE GULF (PROGGED PWATS AS HIGH AS
2") WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXCEED
THAT OF A TYPICAL, SUMMER-LIKE DAY. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION, AND THERE IS STILL
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL VARIABILITY IN POSITIONING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT WHEN VIEWING SPREAD IN 24-HR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE MONDAY IN ATLANTA, WHERE THE 25TH
PERCENTILE IS EFFECTIVELY NEGLIGIBLE (<0.1") AND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE IS NEARLY 1.5".
ALL THIS TO SAY, EXPECTING A MORE CLOUDY AND RAINY, AND THUS COOLER,
STRETCH BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, AS MUCH AS 6-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, ANY LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED, AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH IS PROGGED
TO NUDGE ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL UPTICK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAT WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 15Z, WITH PEAK OF ACTIVITY CENTERED FROM 18-00Z, AND
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS OR RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 04-05Z. CIGS LIKELY
TO MOVE IN WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND OTHERWISE CU FIELD
EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS REMAIN ON WEST SIDE 7-12
KTS, SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT IFR/MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY END OF TAF PERIOD, BUT UNCERTAINTY AROUND
THIS DRIVEN BY RAINFALL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 94 72 88 67 / 60 20 10 30
ATLANTA 91 72 84 67 / 70 40 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 84 64 78 58 / 80 50 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 90 70 83 64 / 80 50 20 30
COLUMBUS 95 74 88 70 / 60 30 70 60
GAINESVILLE 89 70 83 66 / 70 30 10 20
MACON 94 74 89 69 / 70 20 50 60
ROME 89 69 82 64 / 80 40 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 91 72 84 66 / 60 30 30 50
VIDALIA 96 77 93 73 / 60 20 50 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...LUSK
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