758
FXUS62 KFFC 040607
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT TO PERSIST THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 102-109 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAINING CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SUPPORTING INSTABILITY THAT
EXCEEDS THAT OF A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY (SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF
APPROXIMATELY 4300 J/KG ON YESTERDAY'S 00Z SOUNDING, WHICH EXCEEDS
THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY). NOTABLY, MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS
IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE, AND MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES DEPICT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS ENTRAINMENT WILL HELP TO TAMP DOWN ON THE
THEORETICAL CEILING OF OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL/HAZARDS, EVEN SO, A WELL-
DESERVED MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL KINEMATICS, ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL
HAVE STRONG UPWARD PULSES, ENOUGH TO PACK A PUNCH AS THEY COLLAPSE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (GENERALLY UP TO 60 MPH) IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM LINGERING OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR MOST.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR
ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 102-109 DEGREES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR DANGEROUS HEAT THAT
WILL CONTINUE EVEN OVERNIGHT.
INDEPENDENCE DAY IS POISED BE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY, AS
THE RIDGING THAT HAS SUPPORTED OUR MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE -- PRIMARILY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA ALONG THE ALABAMA STATE LINE -- AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE UPON THE DETERIORATING HEAT DOME, BUT
COVERAGE YET AGAIN IS UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MUCH (IF ANY) RELIEF FROM
THE LINGERING HEAT. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS
HIGH. HIGHS AREAWIDE WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF FAR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE A HALLMARK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, AND WITH CONTINUED OPPRESSIVE HEAT, PRECAUTIONS MUST BE
TAKEN TO LESSEN LIKELIHOOD OF HEATED-RELATED ILLNESSES. ENSURE THAT
YOU ARE TAKING FREQUENT HYDRATION BREAKS (IN THE SHADE IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE), WEARING LOOSE, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING, AND CHECKING IN ON
YOUR PEOPLE. APPARENT/"FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL CROSS THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY 10AM TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY NOT CROSS BELOW THAT
THRESHOLD UNTIL 11PM, MEANING IT MAY STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HOT EVEN
AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NOTHING OUT OF THE NORM WEATHER WISE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO/TN VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, LIKELY INCREASING RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE, WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION DRIVING DAILY AFTERNOON RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM WITH DAILY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S AND
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 70S (5-10 DEG COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS). HEAT
INDICES WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE ACROSS N GA SO ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE ATL/AHN AREAS AND NOTHING FOR
MCN/CSG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING W
TO NW IN THE 3-8KT RANGE BY 14Z-16Z. WINDS WILL STAY IN THIS
RANGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20KT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFTERNOON TSRA. EXPECTING LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY
AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND NW WINDS MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 97 74 94 / 0 50 20 40
ATLANTA 77 95 75 92 / 20 50 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 70 88 68 86 / 10 60 20 80
CARTERSVILLE 75 95 73 92 / 30 50 30 60
COLUMBUS 76 95 75 93 / 10 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 75 96 74 93 / 10 50 20 50
MACON 76 96 75 94 / 10 40 20 20
ROME 74 95 73 92 / 30 50 20 60
PEACHTREE CITY 74 94 73 91 / 20 60 30 40
VIDALIA 76 99 76 97 / 0 30 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>007-011>014-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01
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