016
FXUS62 KFFC 081757
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
DUE TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VERY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH PWATS STILL OVER 2" AS MEASURED
VIA THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. THIS IS STILL WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR PWATS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST GA
UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY) HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES/METRO
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. CORFIDI VECTORS AND ESTIMATED
STORM FLOW SUGGEST SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT WHILE POTENTIALLY NOT
EVEN REACHING HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVELOP LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES MAY
REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITHOUT TRIGGERING MUCH OR ANY
LIGHTNING. ANY STORMS THAT DO PRODUCE LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FLOOD RISK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
STORMS SET UP, MEANING THE WATCH IS CONDITIONAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WHICH ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH TOMORROW, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALIZED
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDENT ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER REDUCED CAPE AND WATER LOADING WITHIN STORMS.
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TOMORROW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
(SEE 500MB VORTICITY AND 2PVU SURFACE).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED BY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WARMING UP MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES. LOWS WILL ALSO
BE MODERATED IN THE UPPER 60S BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOW 70S
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
LONG TERM STARTS WEDNESDAY WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH IT ISN'T -QUITE- AS
MOIST AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FORECAST PWATS ARE IN THE 1.75"-
2.00" RANGE, WHICH WHILE STILL A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, AREN'T QUITE THE
MORE EXTREME 2"+ VALUES SEEN ON SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS RECENTLY. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND CANADA, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST INTO CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONING.
THESE IN TANDEM WILL KEEP SURFACE MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA. A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIAL SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION WITH WARMING UPPER LEVELS,
THAT STICKS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN MOISTURE
REMAINS APLENTY, EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BOTH
DAYS.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP TOWARDS THE CWA ON FRIDAY BUT STALL
BEFORE ARRIVING. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA. FURTHER NORTH MAY DECREASE THEM, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POOLING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO REACH INTO NORTH GEORGIA. THIS FRONT LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND AND DIURNAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE. WE'LL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 90S IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
FINALLY, GOOD NEWS (AT LEAST WITH TODAY'S TROPICAL SUITE). GEFS HAS
DECIDED TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH WHAT THE EURO HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR A
BIT, WHICH IS THAT ANY TROPICAL WAVE THAT TRIES TO SPIN OFF THE CAG
CROSSES THE YUCATAN AND ENDS UP IN THE SW GULF WHERE IT STRUGGLES TO
DEVELOP, IF AT ALL. THIS LIMITS IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AS
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING THAT FAR SOUTH IT IS HARD TO EVEN TAP INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. LET US HOPE THIS TREND CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
PATCHY LOW VFR TO HIGH IFR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH -SHRA
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EVE. A FEW ISO -TSRA
PSBL. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATE
TUES MORN, SIMILAR TO TODAY. CIGS TO DIP OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY IFR/MVFR COVERAGE. WINDS SW AT 3 TO 8 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND LIKELY VRB OVERNIGHT. GENERAL WIND DIRECTION TO
REMAIN SW. VSBY LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN PRECIP, WHICH MAY BE HEAVY,
AND OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN THEN CLEARED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 68 81 67 / 70 40 70 10
ATLANTA 81 70 82 69 / 80 50 60 20
BLAIRSVILLE 76 64 78 64 / 90 70 80 30
CARTERSVILLE 81 69 84 69 / 90 50 70 30
COLUMBUS 88 72 85 69 / 20 20 60 10
GAINESVILLE 79 68 80 68 / 80 70 70 30
MACON 85 70 83 67 / 70 30 50 10
ROME 80 68 85 68 / 90 50 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 82 69 83 67 / 60 40 60 10
VIDALIA 90 72 88 70 / 20 10 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>007-011>014-
019>022-030>034-041>046-053>055-057.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...SM
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