605
FXUS62 KFFC 301736
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING FOR MOST BY THE WEEKEND.
- THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS ARE INCREASING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
A MIDLEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT TO
REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY,
REACHING A FEW OF DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS, WORKING TO BRING DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.
IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES,
EXPECT PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THESE
AREAS, POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE ATL METRO, ON
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY, EXPECT A MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ALL
IN ALL, ENJOY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE FOR LATE WEEKEND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND AS WE
SEE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE 1.5-2.5" THIS WEEKEND WHICH IF IT CAME TO FRUITION WOULD BE
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES STILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOME MODEL SPREAD, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A WET
PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BEGIN ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN WINDOWS
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SPREAD WILL REALLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN IT COMES TO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE SHOWS
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TOTALS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHEREAS THE NBM 90TH SHOWS 3 TO 4". DO THINK THAT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THE TOTALS WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH A
RAINY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONE FACTOR IN ALL OF THIS AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE THE WEDGE. EXPECTING THE WEDGE TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH CAN BE KNOWN TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG I-85 AS A RESULT. LIGHTNING IS LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM LIGHTNING WITHIN THE SHOWERS BUT IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT WE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS EVENT. THE SETUP IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO A SEVERE PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN QUESTION AS MODEL SPREAD IS GRANTLEY
10-15 DEGREES WITH NBM 50TH NOTABLY ABOVE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ON
SATURDAY. MODELS CAN STRUGGLE WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN SO ELECTED TO
LOWER THE HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND GO WITH
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY'S HIGHS DOMINATED BY THE WEDGE ARE LIKELY TO PUSH BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID 70S ON SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH RELEGATING THE RAIN
CHANCES TO CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEVELOPING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR-LIFR AND FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSISTING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE ATL METRO, MCN, AND AHN SITES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 4-8KTS THROUGH THE
DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECT TODAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT COVERAGE OF LIFR AND FG.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 65 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 55 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 62 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 67 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 30
GAINESVILLE 60 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
MACON 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 60 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 67 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...82
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...82
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