274
FXUS62 KFFC 210539
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER ARRIVES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD
CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS; ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY NORTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL WEST OF
THE STATE ACROSS TN/AL PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE BERMUDA RIDGE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO NW GA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS NW GA
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
WITH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
CHANCE TODAY AND THU THAT WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM BUT INSTABILITY, SHEER, AND A LIFTING MECHANISM ARE NOT TO
PREVALENT WITH THE RIDGE STILL KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY CAPPED
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPS THU
LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS A LOT LIKE SUMMER IN THE SOUTH -
WARM, PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GALORE WITH SOME AID FROM SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WHILE THIS
FORECASTER IS A BIT SAD ABOUT THE IMPENDING RETURN OF AIR YOU CAN
WEAR TO THE AREA, WE REALLY COULD USE THE RAIN TO HELP CONTINUE TO
ALLEVIATE OR AT LEAST PREVENT WORSENING OF OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND AND REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE.
DIVING INTO THE NERDY DETAILS, ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS TYPICALLY
A FLOW REGIME THAT SETS US UP FOR RAIN, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS
THAT. FLOW ALOFT IS SPLIT OVER THE WEST COAST, ALLOWING US TO TAP
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET/AIRMASS HERE IN THE SOUTH. SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON ANY GIVEN DAY, ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON APPROACH, AND IN SOME CASES MAY DRIVE
EARLIER RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS THAN WOULD NORMALLY OCCUR WITHIN A
PURELY DIURNAL SETUP. HIGHEST CHANCE OF THIS LOOKS TO BE WITH A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY DRIVE
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
REFLECTIVE OF WHAT OCCURS IN LOCATIONS THAT DON'T SEE THUNDERSTORMS -
EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME AREAS WON'T MEET THESE NUMBERS, BUT
PREDICTING EXACTLY WHERE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS BEYOND CURRENT
CAPABILITIES. SPEAKING OF THOSE HIGHS, EXPECT 80S AND 90S THROUGH
NEXT WEEK INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (SO 60S TO LOW 70S) THANKS TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON ANY GIVEN DAY GIVEN THE CURRENT
FORECAST, BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE AROUND FOR THE
OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM THAT COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
WHILE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP, MOST OF IT SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME SUCH THAT FLOODING CHANCES ARE LIMITED (AND MANY OF OUR
LOCAL CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW TO START). AGAIN,
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EVENT, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
A BKN VFR DECK WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z.
A SCATTERED MVFR DECK WILL LINGER ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND
CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA IS INCREASING FOR THE AFTERNOON, INCLUDED AS A
TEMPO BETWEEN 20-00Z AFTER WHICH SHRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 85 64 83 / 70 90 100 90
ATLANTA 67 85 67 83 / 60 90 100 90
BLAIRSVILLE 61 76 61 77 / 70 90 100 100
CARTERSVILLE 64 85 65 83 / 60 90 100 100
COLUMBUS 67 90 68 88 / 20 60 70 90
GAINESVILLE 66 81 66 80 / 60 100 100 90
MACON 67 90 67 88 / 40 70 80 90
ROME 63 84 64 82 / 70 90 100 90
PEACHTREE CITY 65 87 66 85 / 60 80 90 90
VIDALIA 69 91 70 91 / 20 80 60 90
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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