353
FXUS62 KFFC 142348
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 515 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022/
.EARLY EVENING UPDATE
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER JUST
EAST OF ATHENS WHERE A LOCAL BOUNDARY AND SOME DAY TIME HEATING
HAVE PERMITTED SOME VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION TO TAKE OFF. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN FORM ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MACON TO
COLUMBUS DUE TO SIMILAR REASONS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON TRACK
IN OUR LOVELY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS - SOMETHING WE DON'T GET TO
OFTEN ENJOY IN AUGUST IN GEORGIA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022/
AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY, PARTICULARLY FOR LATE
SUMMER. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY IS
KEEPING IT FEELING FAIRLY PLEASANT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING SYSTEM. A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE APPALACHIANS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE SEASONALLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HI-RES
CAMS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON, RETURNING BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR
MOST. THESE WARMER HIGHS COMBINED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A MORE TYPICAL HUMID "SUMMERY" FEEL.
RW
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS, WHICH WILL SET GEORGIA UP IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING
THE UPPER FLOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE UPPER
FLOW WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOISTURE-STARVED AIRMASS, WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF EAST
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME, POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-
END CHANCE IN CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN.
A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
GETS AMPLIFIED ON THE WESTERN SIDE AND DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
BACK INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THUS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PVA ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK-SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KTS ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST ON TUESDAY, IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW TO MID 90S IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
KING
AVIATION
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD FOR CIGS AND VSBY. ANY REMAINING
CU SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FEW TO SCT CU FIELD AT 035-055 WILL
REDEVELOP TOMMORROW AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA AT MOST TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH TIMING AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON WEST SIDE, PICKING UP TO 7-11 KTS DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 91 69 88 / 0 30 30 10
ATLANTA 71 92 70 90 / 0 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 65 84 62 83 / 5 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 91 67 88 / 0 20 20 5
COLUMBUS 71 94 73 94 / 0 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 70 89 68 87 / 0 30 20 10
MACON 69 94 72 94 / 0 20 30 20
ROME 70 93 69 90 / 0 20 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 70 92 69 91 / 0 30 30 10
VIDALIA 68 93 73 93 / 0 10 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...LUSK
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