952  
FXUS62 KFFC 221720  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
120 PM EDT THU APR 22 2021  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1035 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021/  
 
UPDATE...  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST  
TODAY. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING, SO NO  
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRED AT 9AM.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS A DEEP TROUGH  
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY ALTHOUGH AN  
OCCASIONAL GUST IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING SOME FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED THE  
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SOME  
PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.  
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE CONTINUED THE FIRE  
DANGER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO  
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS. FOR FRIDAY...SOME  
MODERATION OF HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AND CRITICAL VALUES SHOULD BE  
CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.  
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME VALUES NEAR FREEZING IN THE FAR  
NORTHEAST. WILL LET NEXT FORECAST SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS.  
 
41  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE WITH A FAST-MOVING  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS TX AND THE ARKLAMISS FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WARM, MOIST GULF AIR WILL OVERSPREAD  
THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
LOW TRACKS OVER OR NEAR THE TN VALLEY. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO  
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STARTING IN THE  
06Z-12Z SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, AND CONTINUED THOSE 70% TO 90% POPS  
AREA-WIDE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.  
 
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE ARE TWO SEVERE WEATHER  
INGREDIENTS THAT WILL BE CHECKED OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE  
ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT STILL MAKE IT A CHALLENGING FORECAST.  
1) THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION/PROGRESSION OF  
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE  
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. 2) ALSO A CONTRIBUTING  
FACTOR TO WHETHER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA  
IS WHETHER THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST AND OUT OF THE  
AREA BEFORE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF  
THESE INGREDIENTS BEING CO-LOCATED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA,  
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LLJ OUTRUNNING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE CONTINUES  
TO BE A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED PROFILES WITH PROGGED  
PWATS REACHING THE 90% MOVING AVERAGE TO EVEN MAXIMUM MOVING  
AVERAGE FOR THE DAY. THERE IS LOTS OF SPREAD IN TERMS OF WHERE THE  
MODELS HAVE THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM, HOWEVER. AS IT STANDS NOW,  
6-HOUR QPF THROUGH THE EVENT SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE GIVEN THE RECENT  
DRY CONDITIONS AND NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. THAT SAID,  
ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER AND/OR LONGER-LASTING RAINFALL -- ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND METRO ATLANTA, WHERE FFG IS  
LOWER -- COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK RISES OF  
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.  
 
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY ARE ON TRACK TO BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY, DRY, AND WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S)  
COURTESY OF A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE CONUS.  
 
MARTIN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z UPDATE...  
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT  
SPEEDS WILL BE 4KT OR LESS. SOME FLIP FLOPPING AROUND DUE NORTH IS  
POSSIBLE UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE MID MORNING.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION AFTER 06Z FRI. OTHERWISE, HIGH  
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
NLISTEMAA  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 65 40 69 52 / 0 0 5 70  
ATLANTA 64 45 68 54 / 0 0 10 80  
BLAIRSVILLE 58 36 62 47 / 0 0 5 80  
CARTERSVILLE 64 40 69 50 / 0 0 10 80  
COLUMBUS 69 44 74 57 / 0 0 10 70  
GAINESVILLE 63 39 66 51 / 0 0 5 80  
MACON 68 41 73 55 / 0 0 5 60  
ROME 65 40 69 52 / 0 0 10 90  
PEACHTREE CITY 66 40 70 52 / 0 0 10 80  
VIDALIA 68 45 75 59 / 0 0 5 40  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA  
LONG TERM....MARTIN  
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page