244
FXUS62 KFFC 030018 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
818 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MORE FALL-LIKE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A BROAD, EXPANSIVE FRONT RIDING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK
MID- LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL TREK EASTWARD OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY. DEEP, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AROUND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH -- THIS MORNING'S 12Z
SOUNDING MEASURED PWATS OF 1.84" (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S 1.22" AT
THE SAME TIME), WELL EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND APPROACHING DAILY MAXIMUMS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND CHANCES WILL FILTER NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. MOST WILL SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY END TO THE WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOVING INTO SATURDAY, AND WITH A LACK OF FORCING TO
FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MORE APPRECIABLY, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PATCHY, ALBEIT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER TOMORROW, LIKELY ECLIPSING 2",
SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL FEATURE HIGH RAINFALL RATES SUPPORTIVE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL
WORK IN OUR FAVOR AS FAR AS PRECLUDING MORE MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR
FLASH FLOODING, BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY
AREAS THAT FIND THEMSELVES UNDER THUNDERSTORMS OR MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS) WILL SERVE AS A PRIMER FOR THE HEAVIER, MORE EXPANSIVE
RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM (BY AS
MUCH AS 8 TO 14 DEGREES) -- IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AREAWIDE --
THOUGH A TICK "COOLER" TOMORROW OWING TO CLOUD COVER WITH MORE
STAYING POWER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTH THAT SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR RAINFALL. PW VALUES
COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS IT LARGELY DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. WHILE WE'RE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 1-3"
IN THIS AREA, A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE MORE THAN 4" WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING AS THE RAIN
DRAGS INTO MONDAY.
THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THE
VERY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA WILL GET AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST TOTALS RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN ADDITIONAL
TWO INCHES UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA HOWEVER, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
AN END OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL
SETTLE IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
AUGUSTA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S WITH 40S LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
EXPECT CURRENT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM S TO N
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW (SATURDAY) MORNING. CONCURRENTLY,
VIS MAY DROP TO MVFR. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE MORNING, THEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VRB TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SE TO SW AT 7 KTS OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOTABLY, WINDS COULD WAVER AROUND DUE S AT ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS, VIS, AND SHRA/TSRA TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 84 67 72 / 20 50 80 90
ATLANTA 71 85 70 74 / 20 50 70 100
BLAIRSVILLE 64 81 64 71 / 10 80 80 100
CARTERSVILLE 70 87 69 76 / 10 50 70 90
COLUMBUS 71 87 71 78 / 40 50 80 100
GAINESVILLE 69 83 68 71 / 10 60 80 90
MACON 70 86 70 78 / 30 40 60 90
ROME 68 87 67 76 / 10 50 70 90
PEACHTREE CITY 69 86 69 76 / 20 50 70 100
VIDALIA 72 85 72 82 / 40 60 50 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page