439
FXUS62 KFFC 150707
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
- GRADUAL WARMING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUO -- WHICH
SUPPORTED SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FAR ECLIPSING WHAT
WE'D EXPECT ON A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON -- RETROGRADES
WESTWARD, WEAKLY SUPPRESSIVE RIDING BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE CORE OF DEEP, TROPICAL-ESQUE MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2.15"
OR HIGHER ON CONSECUTIVE FFC SOUNDINGS) THAT HAS PRESIDED THROUGH
NOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY, LEAVING
BEHIND MORE A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS. AS IT DOES SO, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RETURN TO A MORE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CYCLE, PEAKING AT SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. MARGINAL FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER TODAY, AS SIMULATED MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES SUGGESTING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PROCESSES. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE NEARLY
SUMMERTIME GARDEN-VARIETY, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH TOMORROW, IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER
90S THIS AFTERNOON, AND JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS IT PERTAINS TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE US AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR 'RIDGE RIDERS' (I.E.
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW) TO BRING MORE FOCUSED OPPORTUNITIES AND
HIGHER A PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY GIVEN TIME
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THOUGH BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO TREND UPWARDS AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCT TO BKN IFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD METRO TAF SITES,
LINGERING THRU MID-MORNING. PDS OF LIFR/TWRINC ARE PSBL THRU 14Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO MVFR AND PERHAPS LOW-VFR ARE EXP
THRU THE AFTN. CHCS FOR TSRA WILL INCR AFT 17Z, WITH BEST WINDOW
FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM 18-24Z -- LOWER COVG THIS AFTN. WINDS MAY
BE LIGHT/VRB AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERALLY WILL FAVOR THE E
SIDE AT 4KTS OR LESS. EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE SSW BY 15-16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MORNING CEILING PROGRESSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 88 71 91 73 / 20 10 0 0
ATLANTA 87 72 89 74 / 50 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 83 66 85 68 / 40 10 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 87 71 89 72 / 50 10 30 0
COLUMBUS 90 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 86 72 90 74 / 30 10 20 0
MACON 88 71 90 73 / 30 10 10 10
ROME 87 71 88 72 / 40 10 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 87 70 88 72 / 40 10 20 10
VIDALIA 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96
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