568
FXUS62 KFFC 211834
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY EVENING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S
STAY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA WITH A WEAK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD CREEP UP
AS FAR NORTH AS THE METRO. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, INCREASING SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WX SYSTEM MAY ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS. THE PRESENCE OF EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH VALUES IN THE 70S (60S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS SW
FLOW FURTHER INCREASES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TICK WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL
FOLLOW SUIT WITH VALUES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S (CENTRAL GA). THE
MAIN STORY FOR TOMORROW (MONDAY) WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY BEGINNING DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS IS IN TANDEM WITH SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MID-TO-
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTAL FORCING DESPITE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) WAS INTRODUCED FOR NORTH GA, NOT INCLUDING METRO ATLANTA,
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH ANY ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO THREAT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GA FOR A
SHORT WINDOW TOMORROW EVENING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
OVERALL, DO STILL ANTICIPATE THE LINE TO BEGIN FALLING APART AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTH GA INTO CENTRAL GA AS IT BECOMES FURTHER
DISPLACED FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH GA BY THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND LOWERING OUR
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO <20% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND HELP SUPPRESS STORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT,
BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND GIVEN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH/WEST AND UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH/EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SCT TO BKN MVFR TO VFR CU FIELD WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING.
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR AND PERHAPS SCT LIFR
BEYOND 06Z THRU 14Z. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
MCN/CSG AREAS BUT AN ISO SHRA/TSRA IS STILL POSSIBLE BTWN 20-24Z
AROUND THE ATL METRO. CHANCES ARE GREATER AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
FOR MONDAY AFTN IN THE METRO WHICH WILL BE ADDED IN A LATER TAF.
SW TO WSW WIND 5-10KTS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND QUICKLY PICK UP TO
7-10KTS WITH ISO GUSTS UP TO 20KTS BY 15-16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 91 72 89 / 10 40 60 30
ATLANTA 73 89 72 86 / 10 40 80 50
BLAIRSVILLE 66 82 65 80 / 30 80 80 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 89 71 85 / 20 60 90 50
COLUMBUS 73 91 73 89 / 10 20 40 70
GAINESVILLE 71 88 71 86 / 10 50 70 20
MACON 71 90 73 89 / 20 20 40 60
ROME 73 87 70 85 / 30 70 90 50
PEACHTREE CITY 72 89 72 87 / 10 30 60 60
VIDALIA 72 92 75 92 / 20 20 20 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....WARE
AVIATION...07
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