939
FXUS62 KFFC 191139
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 425 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT, SLOWLY BRINGING
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND CURRENTLY HAVE THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREAS DOWN TO NEAR COLUMBUS. WE
HAVE A TORNADO WATCH IN AFFECT THROUGH 8AM OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT CHANCE TO
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT IN NORTHWEST AL AND EXPECT
OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEE SOMEWHAT OF A WARM UP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO NORTH AND WEST GA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATION OF NORTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF TN TOMORROW COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TODAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ATWELL
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT COOLER AND DRY WITH ONLY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT QUICKLY COMING TO AN END WITH
A DRY EASTER SUNDAY IN STORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO START
THE WORK WEEK.
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE INCONSISTENT WITH HANDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME AM
FAVORING MAINLY LOW CHANCES FOR N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN
THE EUROPEAN. AT THIS TIME, FAVORING CHANCE POPS FOR N AND MOST OF
CENTRAL GA.
BDL
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 16-18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO WEST AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
ATWELL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 45 56 43 / 90 40 40 10
ATLANTA 68 45 56 45 / 80 40 40 5
BLAIRSVILLE 65 39 48 37 / 90 60 50 20
CARTERSVILLE 67 43 55 40 / 70 50 50 10
COLUMBUS 69 46 63 44 / 80 20 10 0
GAINESVILLE 68 44 53 42 / 90 50 50 10
MACON 71 45 61 44 / 90 20 10 0
ROME 66 43 56 40 / 70 60 50 5
PEACHTREE CITY 68 44 59 42 / 80 30 30 0
VIDALIA 76 49 64 47 / 80 30 5 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MUSCOGEE...PIKE...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TROUP...UPSON...WEBSTER.
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ATWELL
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