326
FXUS62 KFFC 110020
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME ON
MONDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA WITH AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST THE MAIN THREAT.
- WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX AS THE PERIOD. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
CLEARED GEORGIA TO THE EAST, WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS HAS SCATTERED OUT CLOUD COVER AND LED
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS). A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE AND ARE BEING
CARRIED ENE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
STORM MEANDERING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA APPEARS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LOOKING WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO ABOUT 15% IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND ARE EVEN LOWER TO THE NORTH.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO APPROACH, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA TONIGHT. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
(DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S) DUE TO THE FLOW FROM THE
GULF BEING CUT OFF FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT, SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT. BY MID-MORNING ON
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH OF I-85, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN RISING INTO THE 80S. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA WITHIN THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
INCREASED DEEP LAYER ASCENT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, WITH POPS OF 25-40% TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE-BASED CAPE UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN
AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS AND MACON, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND IT. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S AND LOW
50S. TEMPS WILL HEAT UP LATE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RAIN FREE, AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
DRY CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BRING BACK SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH MOST OF THE STATE HAS RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN
TO REDUCE SOME OF THE RISK THAT WE WERE FACING A FEW WEEKS BACK.
REGARDLESS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS
WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR THROUGH MOST OF TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS MAY IMPACT
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA.
OTHERWISE, NO OTHER WX OR VSBY IMPACTS. WINDS WILL W TO NW
THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT 5-10 KTS, GOING LIGHTER DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHIFT TO EAST SIDE MAY OCCUR AROUND 03-05Z PERIOD AS
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS WINDS TO NE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRECIP. HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 82 56 77 / 0 20 10 0
ATLANTA 61 80 59 78 / 0 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 74 47 73 / 0 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 56 78 52 79 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 85 60 81 / 0 30 10 0
GAINESVILLE 59 79 56 75 / 10 20 10 0
MACON 60 85 59 79 / 0 30 10 0
ROME 56 77 51 79 / 10 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 58 82 56 79 / 0 20 0 0
VIDALIA 64 88 62 80 / 0 40 30 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...LUSK
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