547
FXUS62 KFFC 071845
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WESTERN GA TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3"+ OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GA.
- WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MOIST SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED. SOUTHERLY FLOW DROVE
PWATS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING TO 1.87" (WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR CLIMOTOLOGIC SOUNDING DATA). THE SURFACE INVERSION THIS MORNING
MEANT SFCCAPE WAS 0, HOWEVER AN MUCAPE OF 950J/KG AT 973MB INDICATES
THE LITTLE MIXING NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION MOVING. CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IN A THICK MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AND RAIN HAS BEGUN ALONG THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL AND SOUTH MIDDLE TN,
WHERE SIGNIFICANT TRAINING HAS OCCURED RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA. UPWIND PROPOGATION VECTORS ARE
MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR/COUNTER-TO THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEADING TO
TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING
HOURS IS HOW THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AXIS TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NORTH GA AND COULD
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE COMING HOURS.
TAKING A LOOK AT UPPER LEVEL FLOW, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HAS BEGUN TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE BEST LOOK AT THIS FEATURE SEE 500MB VORTICITY AND 2PVU
SURFACE. AS THE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH (CURRENTLY OVER
TX/OK), EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD AS THE
RIDGE IS LOCALLY WEAKENED. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLIMBING
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE CERTAINTY IN PWATS OF
~2". THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE MAX FOR THE DAY'S CLIMOTOLOGIC SOUNDINGS
DATA. GIVEN THE POOR UPPER LEVEL STEERING THROUGH THE COMING DAYS,
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY BE SLOW MOVING, TRAINING,
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, AND THUS POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS
EXPLAINS THE SLIGHT-MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
WPC. THE MEAN STORM MODE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, WILL SEE SHOWERS SPREADING OVER NORTH GEORGIA TODAY (OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST). PRECIP WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WEAKENS, BEFORE SEEING FURTHER SURGES GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE DIURNAL HEATING. LIGHTNING WILL BE SPOTTY WITHIN
THE SHOWERS.
MEAN QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD SITS AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA (T-1" ACROSS CENTRAL GA). GIVEN THE PRECIP MODE, HOWEVER, A
FEW POCKETS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
ENSEMBLE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA (ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS) AS HIGH AS 4+ INCHES. THIS
IS LIKELY A PRODUCT OF MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE MESSY AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND/OR TRAINING
COVECTION POTENTIAL. THAT SAID, WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF A FEW
POCKETS SAW AS MUCH AS 4"+ THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OUR TWO. ANOTHER
FACTOR TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IS THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND RAIN'S EFFECT ON INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH (TOWARDS THE ATL METRO) WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP, AND THUS RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOWN TOWARDS THE METRO.
IN SHORT (THROUGH MONDAY), EXPECT AROUND 1" TO 2.5" ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA (INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTH METRO), BEING
PREPARED SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FALL. T-1" IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF 2"+. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BE AWARE OF AREAS WHICH MAY RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TWO DAYS IN A ROW AS THESE AREAS WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THE FLASH FLOODING RAIN THREAT
REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MODERATED BY THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 80
WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
RAINY AND WET DAY SOME ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
COMPARED TO MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS YESTERDAY, MODELS HAVE
ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON A LARGER CHUNK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
GETTING SHEARED OFF AND IMPACTING US THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO WEST ON TUESDAY,
WITH A SOUTHWARD TO SEWARD PROGRESSION THAT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT, AND SOME
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE, AS ONGOING CONVECTION TODAY AND ADDITIONAL
EXPECTED STORMS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY PLAY A COMPLEX ROLE IN HOW THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS THROUGH LATENT HEAT EFFECTS.
MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES, BUT ALL PRODUCE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2"
ACROSS MANY AREAS, RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURS. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
TO AN EXTENT, WHICH WOULD IMPACT SBCAPE POTENTIAL. THAT'S A LOT OF
CAVEATS, BUT THE TAKE HOME IS THAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT SOME RAIN AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW
NUMEROUS ACTUAL STORMS MAY BE.
BY WEDNESDAY, LARGER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS WILL BE
DRAWING COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO IT THAT WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IN ADDITION, LARGE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AIDING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WHAT
WE WILL LACK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS IS THE EXTRA FORCING
MECHANISMS, SO EXPECT MORE TRADITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT AS ENSEMBLES SHOW A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTH GEORGIA BUT STALLING. MOST MEMBERS HAVE
THAT STALL SHORT OF THE CWA, MEANING WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED
MOISTURE POOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STICK WITH US THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE VARIOUS OUTCOMES WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE GULF THAT SPINS OFF THE CAG. THE MOST THAT CAN BE SAID IS
THAT IT STILL NEEDS MONITORING, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT ANY IMPACTS
(IF ANY) LOOK LIKE REMAINS VERY HIGH. AT THE VERY MINIMUM IT WILL
LIKELY BE A SOURCE OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE AIR THAT COULD BE TAPPED
INTO BY ANY SYSTEMS THAT APPROACH THE AREA GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DEGRADE TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS
REMAIN LOW INTO LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN MONDAY. SHRA MOVE INTO
AREA WITH ISO -TSRA ARE PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR METRO SITES. CHANCES
RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH -TSRA CHANCES IN THE AFTN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 80 68 81 / 20 60 70 80
ATLANTA 70 80 69 82 / 50 70 60 80
BLAIRSVILLE 65 76 64 77 / 40 90 60 80
CARTERSVILLE 70 80 69 83 / 70 70 60 80
COLUMBUS 71 86 70 87 / 20 30 40 50
GAINESVILLE 69 78 68 79 / 40 80 60 80
MACON 71 84 69 83 / 10 50 50 60
ROME 69 80 68 84 / 60 80 50 80
PEACHTREE CITY 69 81 68 83 / 50 60 60 70
VIDALIA 71 89 72 87 / 0 10 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...SM
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