663
FXUS62 KFFC 280531
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MCV CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION. AIRMASS IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA REMAINS QUITE RIPE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH ANALYZED SBCAPE OF 3000-4000+ J/KG. DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME OF THESE AREAS WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2". MAIN
THING MISSING IS THE SHEAR, OTHERWISE OUR PARAMETER SPACE WOULD BE A
BIT MORE CONCERNING. STILL, AFTERNOON STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO BRING US
TO CONVECTIVE T. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SEVERE
THANKS TO PRECIP LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS AND 1000+ J/KG OF ANALYZED
DCAPE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
TOMORROW SEES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDE EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST WHICH IS VERY UNFORTUNATE FOR OUR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
FORECAST. HEAT BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S. MISERY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BY ALL. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY. PLEASE
TAKE CAUTION IF WORKING, EXERCISING, OR PLAYING OUTDOORS. TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF LIQUIDS.
JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAMS ARE PRETTY UNIFORM IN SEEING
AN MCS FORM AND PUSH SOUTH, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PORTIONS OF NE GA
BY THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. WHERE THINGS DIVERGE IS IN
HOW WELL SAID MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. VARIOUS CAMS DISSOLVE IT BEFORE IT
ARRIVES INTO THE CWA - OTHERS KEEP IT INTO NE GA BEFORE QUICKLY
FALLING APART, AND OTHERS STILL KEEP IT TOGETHER INTO PARTS OF THE
METRO. THE REFS SHOWS 40%-50% PROBABILITY OF 40 DBZ RETURNS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT, AND (AS USUAL) THE RRFS IS ONE OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN SHOWING CONVECTION PUSHING INTO NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE METRO. REFS MEAN SBCAPE VALUES HOVER NEAR 3000 J/KG,
SO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR (0-6 KM MEAN AROUND 20 KTS). THE MAIN TAKEAWAY
IS THAT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AROUND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS
GET, BUT WHERE THEY DO HOLD TOGETHER, EXPECT TO HAVE A CHANCE OF
SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
BY WED MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS,
A COLDS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH GA AND PUSH RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA SO WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP AS WE GET CLOSER TO
WED. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WE WILL
ALSO HAVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO DEAL WITH AND THINGS
TRAILING OFF AFTER SUNSET. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MOVING SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY 00Z THU WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES CLEARING THINGS OUT FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GA THU/FRI. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL TO MUCH WITH
HIGH TEMPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S BUT THE
APPARENT T (FEELS LIKE TEMPS) WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
BY SAT THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID
MS RIVER VALLEY MOVES INTO W GA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN KY AT THE SAME TIME. WITH
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW CENTER TO NW GA THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FRONT EXITS THE STATE SUN MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES NE
INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. RIGHT NOW THIS IS DAYS 6
AND 7 SO THINGS MAY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A CU FIELD AFTER 15Z.
WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 8-12KTS A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. THE
CU FIELD SHOULD CLEAR AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 92 69 91 / 10 0 0 0
ATLANTA 77 91 71 90 / 20 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 83 60 83 / 30 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 74 90 67 88 / 30 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 79 95 73 94 / 0 30 10 0
GAINESVILLE 74 90 68 89 / 20 0 0 0
MACON 78 95 72 93 / 0 20 0 0
ROME 74 90 67 87 / 20 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 76 91 69 90 / 10 20 0 0
VIDALIA 79 98 74 95 / 10 30 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ001>005-011>014-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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