226
FXUS62 KFFC 121051
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 105 IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) IS IN EFFECT.
- A STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE HEAT BEGINS TO RAMP UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS FRIDAY
SEES HIGH TEMPERATURES SORE INTO THE 90S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHILE DEWPOINTS SIT IN THE LOW 70S. TO PUT IT PLAINLY, THE
OUTSIDE WILL FEEL LIKE STEPPING INTO A BOWL OF SOUP. WARM TEMPS,
MOIST AIR, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MEAN FEELS LIKE TEMPS WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
DOESN'T QUITE YET MEET THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, CERTAINLY USE
CAUTION IF DOING ANYTHING STRENUOUS OUTDOORS, AS IT IS EARLY IN THE
SEASON AND IT TAKES TIME TO REACCLIMATE TO GEORGIA SUMMER.
AXIS OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SWING PAST US DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, DRIVING A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. FORCING FOR THIS
FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, SO IT WILL
STALL WITHOUT HELP FROM SOMETHING ELSE - IN THIS CASE, THE LIKELY
CULPRIT WILL BE CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO BRING A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS TN
TOWARDS GA IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND SHEAR MEAN THE COLD POOLS TYPICALLY END UP OUTPACING THE LINE
DESPITE AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS. THIS SEEMS LIKELY, THOUGH WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED IF SOMETHING IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
SKIRT INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS MAY BE
LIMITED, BUT NOT ZERO. WHAT IS ALSO LIKELY TO DRIVE ANY SEVERE
THREATS TODAY ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO POP
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MUCAPE WITH HREF
MEAN AROUND 2000 J/KG THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING.
DCAPE VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE 500-1000 J/KG, MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME DECENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF PARCELS TO THE
SURFACE THAT COULD BE SEVERE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS IS
DRIVING THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
WITH THIS ALSO COMES A SMALL RISK OF SEEING FLASH FLOODING. MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE
STORMS MAY FIRE. STORMS WHICH DON'T HAVE ORGANIZED COLD POOL BEHIND
THEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING CURRENTS AND MAY MOVE
SLOWLY. PWATS ARE HIGH - NEAR 2" - MEANING RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH
AS WELL. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AND MAY HAVE SOME DEPENDENCY
ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ARE IN PLACE. CAMS FAVOR CENTRAL GEORGIA
FOR BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WHERE SOME VERY MILD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE. GIVEN THE COMPLETE LACK OF
SHEAR, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION BEFORE CHANCES RAMP UP GOING INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE OTHER THING TO NOTE ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE HEAT -
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WOULD
SLIGHTLY EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105). A POTENTIAL POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HOW QUICKLY
IT POPS. INCREASED COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY LIMIT HEAT CONCERNS.
DECISIONS ON ADVISORY WILL BE MADE EITHER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONGTERM, SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION
PERIOD FROM THE HOT HUMID WEATHER TO A WETTER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL REACH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO
THE 100-106 DEGREES IN AREAS. DEPENDING ON TRENDS, A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SOME AREAS IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. BY THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA.
THIS WILL UP OUR RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR 70-80% WHICH WITH PWATS ~2"
WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
THAT AREA ABLE TO FORM. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE PUSHES IN, FORCING MAY BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH
AND THUS FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME. AS
WE PUSH INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AS A FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE IN NORTH
GEORGIA. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ON TUESDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY IN FACT. LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS, IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THE FRONT SHIFTS WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS END UP. CURRENTLY AMOUNTS
ARE MORE ELEVATED TO OUR WEST BUT COULD STILL SEE 1-3" IN MUCH OF
OUR AREA. WITH THIS RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DIMINISHED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND THE MID 80S IN WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE EXPECTED CU FIELD
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 050. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W TO WNW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. SOME SMALL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
POTENTIAL TSRA AROUND METRO, BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN
NORTH OF MOST ALL TAF SITES. OVERALL CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE
PROB30 OR TEMPO IN THIS ISSUANCE. NO OTHER CIG/VSBY IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 95 75 96 73 / 10 10 20 20
ATLANTA 93 75 92 74 / 10 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 68 86 67 / 30 10 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 93 73 91 73 / 20 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 96 75 96 75 / 10 10 20 20
GAINESVILLE 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
MACON 95 75 95 75 / 20 10 30 30
ROME 92 73 90 73 / 30 20 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 94 74 93 73 / 10 10 30 20
VIDALIA 97 78 98 76 / 20 10 30 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...LUSK
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