948
FXUS62 KFFC 191849
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ENHANCED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM FFC SHOWS TROPICAL-
LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.18"
(THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR 12Z SOUNDINGS ON JULY 8 IS 1.87" FOR
COMPARISON). MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED ONSHORE BY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO, WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF, 170 MILES SSE OF
PANAMA CITY, FL. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY, WITH THE
SOUNDING SHOWING A MUCAPE OF 3423 J/KG. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING LIKELY LASTING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET, THOUGH DECREASING AFTER 7 PM
EDT, AND THEN LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 10 PM EDT. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THE ATLANTA METRO AND EASTWARD. THE GREATEST THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS THE DIURNALLY- AND OUTFLOW-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF AND
COME TO AN END TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES ARE LIKELY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS IS LIKELY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY, NOR IS TD TWO. THAT BEING SAID, SOME
CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, WHICH COULD INHIBIT SOME
OF THE INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL NOT PREVENT
ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW, STARTING AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S; HEAT INDICES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING TRIPLE DIGITS. BY WEDNESDAY, A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA AS HI VALUES EXCEED 105. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF IS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL GIVE US A QUICK BREAK FROM
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK; THOUGH HIGHS WILL
STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THAT LOWER HUMIDITY WILL
HELP BREAK THE CHOKE HOLD OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE
ROLL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE, WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOWING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THERE
ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS TO WATCH
OUT FOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXP OVER NORTH INTO CENTRAL GA. DIRECT IMPACTS EXP FOR
ATLANTA METRO & AHN, PSBL FOR CSG/MCN (LOWEST RISK AT MCN). TS RISK
DECR AFT 23Z, BUT LOW RISK LINGERS THRU 02Z. WEST WINDS PREVAIL, AT
5-10 KTS OR LESS; SOME VRB LIKELY. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BECMG
CALM AT TIMES, THEN SW WINDS AT UP TO 3-6 KTS EXP TMRW. CU FIELD
DVLPS AFT 14Z TMRW, AND TS RISK RETURNS, LIKELY AFT AROUND 19-20Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TS RISK DURATION, HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 74 92 75 92 / 20 20 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 68 85 68 85 / 10 40 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 73 93 75 93 / 20 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 10 40
GAINESVILLE 73 92 74 92 / 20 20 10 20
MACON 73 93 74 92 / 0 10 10 30
ROME 73 92 74 93 / 20 30 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 72 92 73 91 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 75 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...CRS
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