807
FXUS62 KFFC 012355
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 12PM-8PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY 12PM-8PM FOR PORTIONS OF NW GA.
- DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND 100-DEGREE HEAT INDICES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO ALSO REFLECT THIS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST DOMINATED BY NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAT
THREATS.
FOCUSING FIRST ON THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...
OVER NORTH GEORGIA, THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAS MATERIALIZED AND AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
9PM TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTED AMBLE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON THAT QUICKLY TAPPED INTO AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS TO
SUSTAIN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM DEW POINTS,
STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND VERY HIGH MLCAPE HAS RESULTED IN QUICK
BLOSSOMING OF THE RADAR OVER THE LAST HOUR. FOR SEVERAL
PARAMETERS, THIS ENVIRONMENT RIVALS THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY,
WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS, HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. OVERALL, THE TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE
REITERATED THE OVER-MIXING (AND DRYING) PRESENTED IN THE HRRR
SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. BASED ON OTHER CAMS (E.G., RFFS-
MPAS), EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NOW FOR HEAT...
THE RIDICULOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEW POINTS HAVE PUSHED
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO HEADLINE-LEVEL THRESHOLDS. THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN PLACE TODAY WILL EXPIRE AT 8PM AS THE HEAT INDEX DROPS
BELOW THE PRODUCT CRITERIA. A SECOND HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO INCORPORATE MOST OF NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE SAME 12PM TO 8PM TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY,
CONCERNS FOR HEAT INDEX TO 110F IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA HAS TRIGGERED
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH. (THE LAST TIME THERE WAS AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH WAS JULY 2025.) SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS WATCH
AREA FOR A FINAL WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR THURSDAY. IT SEEMS
TRENDS IN THE NBM IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO
COOL TEMPERATURES (AND HEAT INDEX) INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TO KEEP MORE OF A STEADY TREND INTO LATE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG IN THE FRONT HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME, WITH WEAK
TROUGHING EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER 90S AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 100S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA,
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. EXTREME HEAT IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE
LOWER FORECAST DEWPOINTS, BUT WITH TDS RANGING IN THE 60S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY STILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED AREAS BREACHING OVER 105 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH PROGRESSION SHOWING FROM THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. HEAT
INDICES MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH, AS FORECAST DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
POPS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD AS WELL, WITH CHANCE POPS (>25%) MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY ONWARD. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, SO PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE COMING
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. OF COURSE, A LOW END SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO
LINGER FOR THE COMING DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY RISK FACTOR.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
STORMS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN GA. WINDS ALSO REMAIN VRB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE E AT 5-7KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SETUP ~4-5KFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TSRA CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE BEST WINDOW BEING 22Z-02Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THEM REACHING INTO THE METRO ATL AREA. MCN
AND CSG ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON TSRA OCCURRENCE.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 98 75 99 / 10 20 20 10
ATLANTA 77 97 78 98 / 10 30 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 91 71 91 / 10 40 40 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 99 76 99 / 10 40 30 20
COLUMBUS 75 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 75 98 75 98 / 10 40 30 10
MACON 73 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 0
ROME 76 98 75 99 / 10 40 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 75 96 75 96 / 10 30 30 20
VIDALIA 71 97 72 98 / 10 0 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>007-011>013-
019>021-030>033-041>044.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ001>003-006-
007-013-014-021>025-027-031>039-041>060.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ004-005-011-012-019-020-030.
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....RANGEL
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page