201
FXUS62 KFFC 232332
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- AN ICE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA DUE TO AN EXPECTED HIGH-
IMPACT ICE STORM. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY WILL BE AN ADDED CONCERN FOR THOSE STILL
WITHOUT POWER AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
- NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S EMERGENCY PLAN AND MAKE
PREPARATIONS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
- AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF NORTH
GEORGIA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR A LARGER AREA OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A BAND OF COUNTIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE ICE STORM WARNING WHERE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT.
ICE STORM OVERVIEW:
CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM THAT
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. ICE TOTALS OF AT
LEAST A QUARTER INCH ARE PROBABLE WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PEAK ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TYPICAL "WEDGE"
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITHIN THIS AREA,
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTER INCH
RANGE ARE PROBABLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY NEARING ONE
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION. UNCERTAINTIES DO REMAIN, HOWEVER, REGARDING
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING AND THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE EROSION OF THE CAD WEDGE, WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE "WEDGE" SECTION BELOW. IN ANY CASE, THOSE WITHIN THE
ICE STORM WARNING SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENSIVE AND LONG-LASTING
POWER OUTAGES AS WELL AS DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL. MEANWHILE,
THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ICE STORM WARNING WHERE SOME
IMPACT FROM FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SUBSTANTIAL ICING IS STILL LOW. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED OVER
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. LASTLY, FOR OUR NORTHWEST GEORGIA
COUNTIES, THE ICE STORM WARNING BEGINS EARLIER SATURDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN A BIT EARLIER IN THESE AREAS.
WEDGE FORECAST AND UNCERTAINTIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY:
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OFTEN IN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS OF THIS PRODUCT,
THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE CAD WEDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DECIDING FACTOR REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE ICE STORM. WORKING IN
FAVOR OF THE CAD IS THE STRONG PARENT 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH IN
ADDITION TO THE REINFORCING NATURE OF OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
THAT WILL FALL INTO THE COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.
GIVEN MODEL PROCLIVITIES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH AND ENDURANCE
OF THE WEDGE, WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LONGER-LIVED CAD ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITHIN OUR FORECAST, THUS FAVORING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME EROSION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A GULF SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ERODE THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE MOST SUBSTANTIALLY, ALLOWING
SOME AREAS TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING IN AND NEAR THE ICE STORM
WARNING AREA. THUS, ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION FOR THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS ZONE WILL COME TO AN END MORE
QUICKLY BY THIS POINT; HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST ZONES FROM GAINESVILLE
TO ATHENS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME, ALLOWING FOR THE HIGHER ICE TOTALS DISCUSSED ABOVE. A
VERY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WAA ALLOWS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH THE
70S WHILE MUCH OF THE WEDGE ZONE REMAINS IN THE 30S.
CENTRAL GEORGIA THUNDERSTORMS:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE AREA AND THE WARM
SECTOR NUDGES INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA, SOME DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. MUCAPE APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED WITHIN THIS REGION (200-
600 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ALONGSIDE SUBSTANTIAL LINEAR-ORIENTED
SHEAR, PERHAPS LEADING TO AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR SECONDARILY A
BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT, LARGELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY SPC FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
HAZARDOUS COLD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS
GUSTING 15-25 MPH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ON MONDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO 'REAL-FEEL' TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL GA. THE CRASHING TEMPERATURES
WOULD ALSO RE-FREEZE ANY SURFACES THAT ARE STILL WET FROM THE
RAIN/ICE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN NORTH GA, AND BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
IN CENTRAL GA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 20-
30 MPH RANGE COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES IN AREAS THAT ARE HARDEST HIT BY THE ICING ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AIRMASS IN PLACE, WEAKENING WINDS, AND CLEAR
SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR NORTH GA. THE 5-8 MPH WINDS WILL
DRIVE 'FEELS-LIKE' TEMPS INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN NORTH GA, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN CENTRAL GA.
ANYONE WITHOUT POWER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED
RISK OF COLD RELATED ILLNESS. THE RISK OF PIPES BURSTING WOULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED. THE HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES WILL IMPROVE SOME
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20 ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED.
DRY AND LINGERING COLD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK:
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN US. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US, REINFORCING THE COOL AIRMASS AFTER HIGH TEMPS
FINALLY REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS
WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITHOUT FACTORING IN WIND, LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS
TO 20S, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
MVFR CIGS TO HOLD TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR MCS AND CSG WITH PATCHY IFR
TO LIFR. CONDITIONS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 6 HRS OF TAF CYCLE
TO IFR AND LIFR WITH POPS INCREASE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CHANGE
OVER FROM -SHRA TO -FZRA AT END OF TAF CYCLE FOR METRO SITES.
WINDS GENERALLY NE THROUGH PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BY MID DAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE START AND SWITCH FROM -SHRA TO -FZRA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 35 42 26 36 / 10 40 100 100
ATLANTA 38 44 31 44 / 0 40 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE 28 40 26 41 / 0 70 100 100
CARTERSVILLE 32 45 31 44 / 10 60 100 100
COLUMBUS 42 54 44 66 / 10 20 90 100
GAINESVILLE 36 41 27 36 / 0 50 100 100
MACON 43 52 36 59 / 10 20 80 90
ROME 32 47 33 50 / 10 70 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY 38 46 32 51 / 10 30 100 100
VIDALIA 45 55 40 69 / 0 10 40 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ001>004-011.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ005>009-012>016-019>025-027-030>039-043>051-055-057-062.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ041-042-053-054-056-058>061-072>076.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...SM
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