112
FXUS62 KFFC 230115
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
915 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
..LATE EVENING UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR
INCREASED CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
I-20 AND I-85 CORRIDORS, WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ELSEWHERE. UP
UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AGO, LIGHTNING REMAINED VERY LIMITED AND RAIN
RATES HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AN INCH SO FAR. WITH TROPICAL STORM
BERTA CONTINUING WESTWARD, OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO OUR NORTH, AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED BUT NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH GA. THE FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH NO EXTENSIONS MADE THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FRONT AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THIS
UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THIS TREND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. THE OVERALL FLOW HAS OUR AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN TS BERTHA'S LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER TENNESSEE. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHERE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE. PWATS ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING WERE ALREADY NEAR THE DAILY MAX AT ~2" AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM BERTHA AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME BUT SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECASTED PWATS IN THE
1.9-2.2" RANGE WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RESULT
IN ELEVATED RAINFALL RATES LIKELY IN THE 1-2"+/HOUR RANGE WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 8PM
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE POSITIVE OF THE INCREASED RAINFALL IS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DECREASED HEAT INDICES AT LEAST FOR
NORTH GEORGIA. TODAY THEY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100, BUT TOMORROW WILL SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
NORTH GEORGIA AND UP TO ~100 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW
TO MID 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION LOCKED IN A SLIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW ATOP A DIFFUSE AND WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER FL, UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND BERTH OVER TX. THIS FLOW REGIME PUTS N GA IN THE PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MOISTURE TO POOL AND FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MIGRATE ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW. CAN SEE IT NICELY WHEN
LOOKING AT RH FORECAST AT 700MB AN 850MB. MODEL PWAT VALUES
BEGINNING FRIDAY SUGGEST DAILY MAX VALUES OVER 2.1 INCHES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE UPPER
FORCING AND THE PROSPECT OF TRAINING CELLS SUGGEST FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH EXTENDS TO FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. WPC ERO FOR FRIDAY PUTS A PORTION
OF THE I-20 BELT IN AN UPPER END SLGT RISK WHICH CORRELATES
NICELY WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE PLUME FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE
AT THE 700MB AND 850MB LEVEL. BY SATURDAY, BERTHA MOVES OUT OF THE
PICTURE AND A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SLOWLY BECOMING NW
FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. IF SOMETHING CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS KY
OR TN, THERE COULD BE A LOW END SEVERE RISK, BUT THE FLOOD RISK IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGHER PWAT VALUES.
BY SUNDAY, THE DISTURBANCE THAT ROLLS THROUGH ON SATURDAY HELPS
DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN US SETTING UP OUR REGION IN
FULL FLEDGED NW FLOW. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE AREA
IN THE MID LEVELS, BUT THERE IS NOT ANY DISCERNIBLE PUSH IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MEANING THE HIGHER, LOW TO MID 70, DPTS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
IN DEALING WITH NW FLOW REGIMES. NBM UNFORTUNATELY IS YIELDING SUB
15 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES DESPITE THE HIGHER SFC
DPTS, INSTABILITIES AND PROSPECT OF ANY NW FLOW RIPPLE. CERTAINLY
CANT RULE OUT A DRY PERIOD, BUT DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE OTHER FACTORS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE DRY AIR IN
THE SOUNDING, BUT A LACK OF ANY REAL INHIBITION OR CAP SUGGESTS WE
COULD STILL HAVE SOME STORMS AROUND. THE OTHER PART OF THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY MONDAY THRU WED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A NW
FLOW DISTURBANCE. ECM AND GFS BOTH HINTING AT SOMETHING MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW TUE OR WED WHICH COULD MEAN SOME SORT OF
MCS...WHICH IN TURN INCREASES THE SEVERE RISK FOR THE AREA. AI/ML
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THAT BY DAY 6 AND DAY 7 SOME SEVERE PROBS
WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. FOR NOW, THE
EXTENDED IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND ONE WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR BOTH SEVERE AND HEAT HAZARDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
BANDS OF SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-END GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER AFTER 02Z WITH
CIGS START TO LIFT ABOVE 6-8KFT. WINDS LARGELY OUT OF THE S/SW,
THOUGH WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THESE BANDS WINDS MAY WAFFLE
BRIEFLY TO THE SE SIDE. MVFR IS LIKELY BY 10Z THURSDAY, LIFTING
AROUND 16Z TO LOW VFR. SCT SHRA PSBL BY 18Z AT THE NORTH SITES,
WITH COVERAGE AND TSRA CHANCES INCREASING BY 20Z THRU THE EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 91 71 86 / 20 40 60 80
ATLANTA 75 90 74 87 / 20 40 50 80
BLAIRSVILLE 69 81 66 79 / 70 90 60 90
CARTERSVILLE 74 88 73 86 / 40 70 70 90
COLUMBUS 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 10 30
GAINESVILLE 74 88 71 83 / 40 60 80 90
MACON 74 93 75 92 / 10 0 10 50
ROME 73 86 72 86 / 50 80 70 90
PEACHTREE CITY 73 90 73 88 / 20 20 40 70
VIDALIA 74 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>024-030.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07
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