480
FXUS62 KFFC 142338
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR EAST-CENTRAL GA.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON (SEE LONG TERM).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID-70S ACROSS MOST PLACES. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S IN NORTH GA TO NEAR 80 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR A FEW DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY REACHING
SEVERE CRITERIA -- THIS WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY (SEE LONG TERM). A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-DAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH INSTABILITY STILL ON THE ORDER OF 500-900 J/KG
(MLCAPE) AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADO THREAT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL INCLUDE A BREAKDOWN OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE COMING COLD-SNAP
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP POLAR
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT NEGATIVE TILTING AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN
CONUS. DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SCREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DRIVING SFC-500MB
SHEAR OF >75KTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE TIMING THE FRONT
ITSELF AS THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY GIVE THE
FRONT SOME SIGNIFICANT FORWARD MOVEMENT (WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A LINE MOVING AT 60-70+ MPH SUNDAY NIGHT). THAT SAID, MODELS
ARE SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIME IN WHICH THE LINE WILL ARRIVE WHICH
HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AVAILABLE CAPE. THE HIGHEST SEVERE
THREAT LIES WITH MODELS WHICH BRING THE FRONT IN LATER, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY
(1000-1500+ J/KG; SEE NAM). OTHER MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (3-7AM) WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CAPE VALUES MORE TO 500-1000J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND THE TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT, WOULD LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE SLOWER. MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THIS LINE (OR DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE) WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOS.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE LINE WILL DROP QUICKLY (20-30 DEGREES IN
6HRS OR LESS). LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. MACON AND COLUMBUS COULD SEE LOW TEMPS
BOTH DAYS WHICH RIVAL OR BREAK RECORD LOWS. THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK TO SPRING TIME CROPS AND VEGETATION.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (>35MPH GUSTS) OF
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LOWS CLIMBING OUT
OF THE 30S FOR MOST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE S/SE AT 3-6 KTS UNTIL AROUND 08-09Z AT WHICH
POINT THEY'LL SHIFT SOLIDLY SE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE,
REACHING 8-12 KTS BY 14Z AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, SCATTERED SHRA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD, WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. A PROB30 FOR -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FROM 14-18Z AT ATL.
TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT TO MENTION IN TAFS ASIDE FROM AHN/MCN. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP FROM 14-18Z, WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO LOW VFR AFTER 18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 51 72 48 61 / 0 40 80 80
ATLANTA 54 73 41 57 / 10 20 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 47 65 37 55 / 0 30 90 70
CARTERSVILLE 53 74 39 53 / 0 10 90 50
COLUMBUS 56 79 46 61 / 10 10 90 60
GAINESVILLE 50 70 44 58 / 0 30 90 70
MACON 54 80 53 66 / 10 30 70 80
ROME 55 77 42 53 / 0 20 90 40
PEACHTREE CITY 52 75 41 58 / 10 20 90 70
VIDALIA 56 83 62 73 / 10 30 50 90
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...KING
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