658  
FXUS62 KFFC 241911  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
311 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018  
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS THE STATE AS MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY  
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK OPEN WAVE HAVE MOVED NE OUT  
OF THE GULF AND IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.  
THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STRETCHES FROM  
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO MS/LA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS  
ALSO SOME WEAK WEDGING PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH IS  
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THINGS A BIT STABLE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME  
DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN  
THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE MOMENT. TEMPS ARE STILL A BIT WARM  
BUT THEY ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY THAN THEY HAVE  
BEEN IN A FEW WEEKS. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SAME AS  
TODAY AS WELL AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
 
01  
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
STILL NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT  
APPROACHES NORTH GA MID WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT PUSH INTO THE  
AREA WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING. GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN  
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING US IN A MOIST AIRMASS. LIKELY OR BETTER POPS  
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT STILL ON  
TRACK. OTHERWISE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE. THE  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.  
 
41  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018/  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
THE LONG PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WEST OF THE  
AREA AND STRETCHING FROM OHIO AND KENTUCKY AND EXTENDING INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, MOISTURE WILL BE  
PLENTIFUL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER WITH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN TIER. THERE WILL BE  
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE DAY WED BUT THERE WILL BE SOME  
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE NW PORTIONS TO GO ALONG WITH  
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TO ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL POPS  
ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 ON THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY ALONG THE I85  
CORRIDOR.  
 
FRONT MAKES LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND POPS  
DISTRIBUTION LIKEWISE REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH LOCAL MAXIMA WILL  
DEPEND UPON EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE  
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING FOR THE  
NORTHERN SECTIONS BY FRI DAY BUT THAT IS ONLY PER THE GFS. ECMWF  
ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE BUT IT DOES LITTLE IN MAKING THE FRONT  
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, INSTEAD KEEPING MOISTURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED  
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  
 
NO REAL SIGNALS TO CHOOSE ONE MODEL SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS  
POINT AND WILL IN GENERAL USE A BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
LONG TERM WHICH YIELDS POPS IN THE LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE  
CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE FOR HIGHS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOW TO MID 80S HELD DOWN  
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.  
 
DEESE  
 
AVIATION...  
18Z UPDATE...  
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE  
SOME IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z-14Z AS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
PUSHES IN ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK INTO THE MVFR  
RANGE AFTER THAT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE OFF AND ON THOROUGH THE PERIOD BUT  
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS BUT THINKING THY SHOULD BE ISOLATED  
ENOUGH TO MISS THE TAF SITES. VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY VFR BUT WILL  
SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS  
 
01  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 69 85 69 87 / 50 30 40 60  
ATLANTA 71 84 72 85 / 50 50 60 70  
BLAIRSVILLE 65 77 65 78 / 60 50 70 80  
CARTERSVILLE 70 85 70 83 / 50 60 70 80  
COLUMBUS 72 89 73 89 / 40 40 50 50  
GAINESVILLE 69 81 70 83 / 50 40 60 70  
MACON 71 89 71 90 / 40 20 30 40  
ROME 70 85 70 82 / 60 60 80 80  
PEACHTREE CITY 70 85 70 86 / 40 50 50 60  
VIDALIA 72 90 72 91 / 20 20 20 40  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...01  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...01  
 
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