229
FXUS62 KFFC 220732
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, BRINGING
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY BRINGING A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
AND START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
USHER IN PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, PROVIDING IMPETUSES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID DEEP MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND PWATS
1.5- 2". MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST/PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT/PERSISTENCE
HEADING INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY, A FEW BREAKS COULD BE EXPECTED. THUS, OVERALL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT SHOULD STILL
YIELD SOME 800-1200 J/KG SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED, A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, PRIMARILY FOR A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH/URBAN FLOODING THREAT IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OR
ANCHORING OF STORMS COULD OCCUR. EXACT TIMING OF MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS A BIT TRICKY, THOUGH REDEVELOPMENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS FAVORED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REINVIGORATE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, VESTIGES OF
THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT BY SATURDAY, AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE. AGAIN, A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WOULD MANIFEST PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN INSTABILITY ALONGSIDE
AND 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
REMAIN A THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FULL LONG TERM.
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD POPS
PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF STATES PROVIDED THE NECESSARY
LIFT. A FEW STORMS EACH DAY MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE
TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+ PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIME. ALL THAT
SAID, NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW. A HIGH AMPLITUDE POLAR JET WILL RIDGE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY FORMING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IF SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH
TO UNDERCUT THIS LARGE RIDGE AND CONTINUE THE RAIN TRAIN OR WILL
CONDITIONS SETTLE FOR HOT AND MUGGY. TIME WILL TELL, THOUGH POPS
WILL HOLD AT LEAST LOW END THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD MVFR
CIGS AT ATL AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN WITH PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY 09-15Z. ISO/SCT -SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. VFR CIGS THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA AFTER 19-22Z
PERSISTING INTO LATE EVENING (00-02Z SATURDAY). IFR TO LIFR CIGS
APPEAR PROBABLE BY 06Z SATURDAY IF NOT AS EARLY AS 04Z. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN E TO SE THROUGH 18-20Z WITH SSW MORE PROBABLE BY
20Z BEFORE A RETURN TO SE BY 01-04Z. SPEEDS WILL BE 05-10 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 85 64 81 64 / 80 100 100 90
ATLANTA 84 67 82 66 / 60 80 90 80
BLAIRSVILLE 75 61 76 61 / 90 100 100 80
CARTERSVILLE 82 65 82 64 / 70 80 100 70
COLUMBUS 88 67 86 67 / 60 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 80 66 79 65 / 80 100 100 90
MACON 90 66 85 66 / 70 80 80 80
ROME 80 64 82 63 / 80 90 90 60
PEACHTREE CITY 85 66 83 65 / 70 70 80 80
VIDALIA 91 70 89 69 / 60 60 80 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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