823
FXUS62 KFFC 070647 CCA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND WESTERN GA TODAY.
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEXT WEEK FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
- WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ON TAP FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS WEEK
BEGINNING TODAY (SUNDAY). RIDGING ALOFT WILL DAMPEN AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSES THE MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH
RISING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF RAIN FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN GEORGIA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING -- THOUGH COULD BE AS EARLY AS MID-DAY. WE ARE STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AT THE MIDLEVELS, PER LATEST SOUNDINGS, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS,
MEANING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION TODAY.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY WILL PROMPT ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PWS, WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS
TIME FOR NORTH GA. WPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA (LEVEL 2
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO NORTH GA FOR MONDAY. FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HOW THIS ACTIVITY
EVOLVES EARLY IN THE DAY WILL DETERMINE IF ANYTHING MORE DEVELOPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
NOT AS PREVALENT. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES MAY SEEM 'LOW',
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM BACK
INTO THE AREA. SO IT'LL LIKELY FEELING INCREASINGLY MUGGY EACH
DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BACK TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING DECENT CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA BECAUSE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE STICKING AROUND. A VERY
MOISTURE LATENT ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED IN THE
2" TO 3" RANGE EACH DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES KEEP
TEMPERATURES TUE AND WED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH TEMPS A DEG OR TWO HIGHER FOR THU AND FRI. BY WEDNESDAY WE
WILL BE MONITORING TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A WEAK FRONT CAN MAKE
IT TOWARDS THE CWA, WHICH MAY ELEVATE RAIN AND T-STORM CHANCES
INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE IT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA THU.
BY DAY 6 THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE GFS ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAMPA FL NEXT SUN THE 14TH. THE
ECMWF SHOWS THIS SAME SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
THU/FRI, BUT IT TAKES THE LOW CENTER WESTWARD AND FALLING APART JUST
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEXT
WEEKEND. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY
AGGRESSIVE THIS SPRING/EARLY SUMMER WITH THIS NOW BEING THE 3RD OR
4TH TROPICAL SYSTEM IT HAS SHOWN. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
IS NOW THE ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING. WITH
ALL THIS BEING SAID ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WILL
DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, JUST DONT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHERE IT WILL GO OR JUST HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. WILL BE
DEFINITELY KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE MODELS WANT TO HANDLE THIS
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START AT ALL SITES. SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 15KFT TO
PERSIST WITH A MID-LEVEL DECK (3-5KFT) DEVELOPING AROUND 14-15Z. MAY
BRIEFLY GO AS LOW AS 2.5KFT BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. CALM TO LIGHT S
WIND LESS THAN 4KTS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AT 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z.
SCT SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS NW GA MAINLY IMPACTING RYY/FTY BY AROUND
16Z PERSISTING THRU THE AFTN. WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHRA
WILL BE WEST/NORTH OF ATL, A STRAY SHOWER AT THE AIRFIELD IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS (2-3KFT) PSBL AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA OCCURRENCE/TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 88 69 80 67 / 10 30 70 60
ATLANTA 83 70 79 68 / 40 40 70 60
BLAIRSVILLE 81 64 76 64 / 30 50 80 40
CARTERSVILLE 82 69 79 68 / 60 50 70 60
COLUMBUS 85 70 85 69 / 30 20 40 30
GAINESVILLE 84 68 78 68 / 30 50 70 50
MACON 88 70 83 68 / 10 30 60 50
ROME 80 68 79 67 / 70 60 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 69 80 68 / 40 40 70 50
VIDALIA 91 72 87 71 / 0 10 20 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07
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