414
FXUS62 KFFC 211828
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND METRO ATLANTA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY AS
MIDWEEK AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA HAS DONE LITTLE
TO DISSUADE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IF ANYTHING HAS
PROVIDED FOR SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FIRE OFF OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED QUITE WELL ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AL.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FIRE AWAY. CURRENT STORMS SEEMED TO EITHER BE TERRAIN INDUCED
(NORTH GEORGIA) OR WITHIN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM ATLANTIC
TRANSPORT (EASTERN GA). HAVE AGAIN BUMPED UP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
COMPARED TO NBM FOR THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING ENSEMBLE LIKELY BEING UNDERDONE.
AS FOR THE SEVERE SIDE, BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN GA INTO
THE ATLANTA METRO WHERE SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5
(MARGINAL) RISK FOR THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER HERE
THANKS TO THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS
NOTED IN RAP PROFILES WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPIDLY DESCENDING
AIR PARCELS THAT BRING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE AREA WITHIN
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW, AND STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAK AS WELL, SO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY LOW SPEED.
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES WITH PWATS HOVERING IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE,
QUITE HIGH FOR LATE SEPTEMBER OUTSIDE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS HOT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
TUESDAY HAS A VERY SIMILAR LOOK OVERALL TO TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS PART OF A MORE COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL EVOLUTION AND PROVIDE FOR SOME BROAD LIFT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTA METRO. THE FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THANKS TO BOTH A STRENGTHENING BROAD SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND REINFORCEMENT FROM CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS AND OUTFLOW.
ALL OF THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR THESE TO BE ONGOING FROM TUESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAY TIME
HEATING. WE WILL AGAIN SEE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7- 1.9" RANGE. SIMILAR CONCERNS WILL
EXIST FOR A WET MICROBURST IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 90S FOR...ONE LAST TIME (AT LEAST THIS WEEK).
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE VERY STRONG (FORECAST AS HIGH AS 1040 MB
IN SOME GUIDANCE) CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO A POSITION THE NORTHEAST
THAT CENTERS IN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLD AIR
DAMMING NERDS REJOICE, FOR YOU KNOW WHAT THESE MEANS. CAD IS
FORECAST TO HAVE ALREADY STARTED MOVING ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL
ACCELERATE DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SIDE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CAD SHOULD BE
WELL IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONLY PROGRESS FURTHER FROM
THERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF A PATTERN SHIFT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD (WEDNESDAY) AND THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WORTH
NOTING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH GA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY AND
HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL START TO SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US LENDING TO A WEDGE FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES WHERE THE
WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS AND/OR WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
STORMS ON TUESDAY EVENING END UP. BUT AGAIN EXACT LOCATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THUS, RAIN AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTH GA.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE WEDGE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING NORTH OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A 1030-1035MB HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE NE US AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA ON THURSDAY BUT MOST LOOK
TO REMAIN DRY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S/80S AND
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S/60S BY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SITES. SOME CHANCES FOR TSRA MAY LINGER FOR
RYY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FURTHER SOUTH. SOME SIGNAL FOR IFR CIGS THAT
COULD BRUSH UP AGAINST OR INTO METRO TAF SITES AND MCN/AHN, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CIGS AND TSRA, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 90 67 79 / 20 60 60 40
ATLANTA 72 90 71 82 / 20 50 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 63 82 62 74 / 40 80 60 90
CARTERSVILLE 70 90 68 83 / 50 60 50 50
COLUMBUS 72 93 72 90 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 70 87 69 77 / 30 70 60 50
MACON 70 92 70 88 / 20 10 30 40
ROME 68 91 67 85 / 50 50 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 70 91 69 85 / 20 50 40 40
VIDALIA 71 91 72 88 / 20 20 10 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...LUSK
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