072  
FXUS62 KFFC 131124  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
724 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 334 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS FINALLY ON THE WANE BUT  
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO REDEVELOP PRIOR TO  
SUNRISE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY WILL BE  
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALABAMA WHICH WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS  
EASTWARD BUT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING  
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES  
WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE  
QUITE WARM AT -5C AT 500MB BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAY ALSO LEAD TO AN  
INCREASED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT,  
WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST  
SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN REDEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THU  
NIGHT SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PRIMED FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY.  
 
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PLAY AN EVEN BIGGER ROLE FOR FRIDAY AS IT  
PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS STEADY STATE WHICH  
IS TO SAY VERY HIGH AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS POINTS  
TO CONTINUED HIGH POPS. IN FACT WILL PAINT AN AREA ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TIER WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH  
TROPICAL LIKE PROFILE BUT MOISTURE LOADING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS WELL. STORMS AND CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A  
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.  
 
DEESE  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA COME SUNDAY WITH SOME  
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE MODELS AND ANOTHER SETS UP COME TUESDAY WITH  
NW FLOW IN BETWEEN GIVING POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW TO  
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY, TAILING OFF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN  
INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
FOR THE MOST PART, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES  
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
BDL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z UPDATE... MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, STILL SEEING SOME  
NOCTURNAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT BUT THUS FAR AWAY FROM THE MAIN  
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS THE MODELS WERE  
SUGGESTING THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEFLY AT CSG. INCREASED MOISTURE  
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AND REQUIRE THE  
NEED FOR A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHOT AT TSRA  
POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z REQUIRING A PROB30. BASED ON WHO ULTIMATELY  
SEES THIS ACTIVITY, MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP TONIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE AND LIGHT.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 91 72 87 70 / 60 60 70 70  
ATLANTA 91 72 86 71 / 60 60 80 70  
BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 79 66 / 60 60 90 80  
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 70  
COLUMBUS 92 74 88 72 / 60 60 70 60  
GAINESVILLE 89 71 84 70 / 70 60 80 80  
MACON 93 72 89 71 / 60 60 60 60  
ROME 92 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 70  
PEACHTREE CITY 91 71 86 71 / 60 60 80 60  
VIDALIA 91 74 90 73 / 60 50 50 50  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEESE  
LONG TERM....BDL  
AVIATION...DEESE  
 
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