782
FXUS62 KFFC 251019
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY FOR NORTH GEORGIA AND LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON -- COLUMBUS TO MACON SOUTHWARD -- DUE TO A
SURFACE LOW SKIRTING NE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND GIVING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WATER-LOADED
DOWNDRAFT WITH ANY PULSE STORMS, THUS STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A
POTENTIAL THREAT. AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY REGIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING AGAIN TODAY RESULTING
IN COMFORTABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S (5-10 DEG COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS) COUPLED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30-40% RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE PLEASANT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN THANKS TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS,
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 90S BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND.
BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH,
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW WAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH MAY DIURNALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER GA
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS A FIRST MAIN WAVE MOVES SE OUT OF THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO W GA. THIS BOUNDARY STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY SO WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE THU/FRI. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR THE BOUNDARY STAY AROUND THE 2" RANGE BEGINNING
LATE WED THROUGH SAT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY WHY WPC HAS PLACED A GOOD
PORTIONS OF THE STATE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC PUT US UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THU/FRI. WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO
KEEP AND EYE ON SEVERE/EXCESSIVE RAIN TRENDS.
MOISTURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK IN ACROSS THE
SERN U.S. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE STRONGER TO SEVERE
GROWTH ASPECT OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT/SUN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS AND FEW
TO SCT CU 5-7KFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL WAFFLE
FROM THE NW TO NE AT 3 TO 6KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF CSG/MCN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 70 91 70 / 0 0 40 50
ATLANTA 94 72 92 71 / 0 0 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 86 64 84 64 / 0 0 50 40
CARTERSVILLE 93 70 92 70 / 0 0 30 40
COLUMBUS 95 73 93 73 / 20 10 40 40
GAINESVILLE 90 69 89 69 / 0 0 40 50
MACON 95 72 92 71 / 20 10 40 40
ROME 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 94 70 92 70 / 0 0 40 40
VIDALIA 95 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07
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