753
FXUS62 KFFC 011120
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM.
- DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND 100-DEGREE HEAT INDICES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT
AS IT CLOSES OFF AND DEVELOPS INTO A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP HOT CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
MORNING IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH SOME
UPPER 70S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
DAILY NORMALS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
NORTH GEORGIA, AND ARE FURTHERMORE DOING LITTLE TO PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 90S IN ALL BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S, WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S ONCE AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR AN AREA FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TO
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS FULTON COUNTY WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST
TO BE HIGHEST AND WHERE MORNING LOWS LARGELY REMAIN WARMEST. THIS
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THOSE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS, DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE AND AIR CONDITIONING.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THIS
AREA. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AREAS LARGELY NORTHWEST OF
ATLANTA. HERE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AND WELL-MIXED AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500
J/KG. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHWEST GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR LIMITING HEAT INDICES AND POPS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHILE HEAT INDICES OVER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
WITH HEAT INDICES HOVERING IN THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LOW GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS
AND THE OVERALL PATTERN, BUT DO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
INSTABILITY BUT A LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
PULSE TYPE CONVECTION WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND,
POSSIBLY UP TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM. CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER BRING FORECAST
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL STILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE MORNING. A SCATTERED CU
FIELD BETWEEN 035-050 IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 15Z. DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ISSUANCE, A PROB30 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE ATL METRO
SITES FROM 18-22Z FOR TSRA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
START THE PERIOD, BECOMING E/SE AT 4-8 KTS AFTER 14-15Z AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 10 0
ATLANTA 95 77 96 77 / 20 10 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 89 71 91 70 / 40 20 40 10
CARTERSVILLE 96 76 98 75 / 30 30 20 10
COLUMBUS 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 95 75 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
MACON 94 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 96 76 98 75 / 30 30 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 93 75 95 74 / 20 10 10 0
VIDALIA 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ001>007-011>013-019>021-030>033-041>044.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....HELLER
AVIATION...KING
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