339
FXUS62 KFFC 041800
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 106 POSSIBLE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS THRU 10PM TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LARGELY EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW
NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE HAS ACTED AS A SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR STORMS IN NORTH GA. ADDITIONALLY, A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY, SEEN ON SATELLITE BY A CU FIELD, IS/WILL DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL GA. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE LIKELY TO BE
SLOWER MOVING, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 98 TO 106 RANGE. PLEASE BE
MINDFUL OF THE HEAT AND KEEP YOUR EYES TO THE SKY AS YOU ENJOY ANY
OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
NORTH GA THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AFTER
DARK (BETWEEN 8PM TO 2AM), INCLUDING IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA.
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AND DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS FESTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS WILL BE ONGOING
AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH GEORGIA, AS AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACTS TO INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACTING AS AN ADDITIONAL
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. THE SPC HAS PAINTED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 2) AREA ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA FOR
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE (I.E. CENTRAL GA), CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2-10PM, THOUGH IT IS
SUMMERTIME AND SPOTTY POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN
EARLIER AND LINGER LATER. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COMPARABLE TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S OUTSIDE OF THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS AND LOWS IN THE 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL GA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE
UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER TOMORROW. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE HOT AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE
FUTURE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUAZI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK, WITH SOME TROUGHING FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ELONGATED. SUMMER TIME HEAT AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HOLD AS THE PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A SLIGHT DOWN TREND IN AMBIENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY ONWARD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, BARRING OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. LOW TEMPERATURES
AND AVERAGE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO STAY IN THE 70S NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN OUR HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDS, HEAT INDEX CONTINUES
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE COMING DAYS. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE CWA SHOULD HOST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S, A FEW LOCATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SE, MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES. DESPITE MOST
TEMPERATURES BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, IMPACTFUL HEAT IS
STILL EXPECTED DAILY AND AREAWIDE. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
FOR THE COMING DAYS.
TRENDS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUE EVERY DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
QPF IN NW GEORGIA THIS WEEK COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE FA. THIS IS
ALSO REFLECTED WITH NBM POPS AS THEY CONSISTENTLY FAVOR THIS AREA
FOR LIKELY (55-75%) RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE, STORM COVERAGE FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION MAY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MOSTLY VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU AT 4-6KFT HAS
DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST THRU 00Z WITH ISO TO SCT TSRA CHANCES
THRU 02Z. MAY LINGER PAST 02Z AROUND METRO SO WILL MONITOR. WNW TO
WSW WIND 4-8KTS AND ISO GUSTS WITH ANY TSRA. BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 97 74 93 / 10 40 30 50
ATLANTA 77 94 75 92 / 20 40 30 60
BLAIRSVILLE 69 88 68 86 / 20 50 30 70
CARTERSVILLE 75 94 73 92 / 20 40 20 60
COLUMBUS 77 95 75 93 / 10 30 30 50
GAINESVILLE 75 95 74 93 / 20 40 30 50
MACON 76 95 75 93 / 10 30 20 40
ROME 74 94 73 91 / 20 40 20 70
PEACHTREE CITY 74 93 73 91 / 20 40 30 60
VIDALIA 76 99 76 97 / 0 30 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>007-011>014-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....RANGEL
AVIATION...07
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