882
FXUS62 KFFC 080017
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
817 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ONGOING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS A DISTURBANCE ROUNDS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL, PROVIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THESE AREAS. INITIALLY, VERY LIGHT RAINFALL/SPRINKLES FROM MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED
AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WAVE, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK
THIS AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE, THOUGH RICHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD.
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING NEAR TO OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO SPECIFIC LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG ANY
LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. SEVERAL HI-RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY, A RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER SUNSET, OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD WANE
WITH A LIKELY BREAK IN CONVECTION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL
THAT A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RISK FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD THUS EXIST WITH THIS ANY PREFRONTAL
LINEAR CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.
RW
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS HAVE COME
MORE IN LINE OVERALL. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO GA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE...WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL
RISK...WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER IN A SLIGHT RISK. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW SEEMS LIKE
AN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO HAVE
STARTED OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
NORTHWEST...THEN DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PERIOD OF DRYING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH A RETURN TO A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. QPF TOTALS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD COULD BE TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WE STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN -RA SHIELD HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TERMINALS AS WELL
AS AHN. STILL A FEW HOURS LEFT HOWEVER OF ACTIVITY FOR CSG AND
MCN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, LOWER CIGS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
MOVE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA BUT FOR
NOW WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY NEED
ANOTHER PROB30 WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES FOR WED AFTERNOON FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 61 84 64 79 / 30 20 10 30
ATLANTA 62 82 65 75 / 50 40 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 55 77 58 66 / 50 50 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 60 81 62 73 / 50 50 30 30
COLUMBUS 64 83 66 84 / 40 40 20 20
GAINESVILLE 60 80 63 74 / 30 30 20 30
MACON 63 84 66 84 / 40 30 20 20
ROME 60 81 62 72 / 50 40 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 61 83 64 78 / 50 40 20 30
VIDALIA 65 84 68 88 / 30 40 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE
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