926
FXUS62 KFFC 190113
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
913 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
..LATE EVENING UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT TO ONGOING DROUGHT IS EXPECTED.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP THIS EVENING. A FEW IN NORTH
GEORGIA WILL BE LUCKY TONIGHT AND RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL BUT MANY,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GA WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT EVEN
FURTHER ON SUNDAY. IN CONSIDERING ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT AND LACK
OF RAINFALL, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WON'T QUITE SEE AS HIGH OF WINDS FOR SUNDAY
BUT WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VERY DRY IT'S POSSIBLE FIRE
HEADLINES MAY BE INTRODUCED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE A GIVEN DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO "COOLER" (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER-90S.
MINIMUM VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE MID-20S TO
MID-30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS, OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
AMIDST OUR UMPTEENTH DAY OF PERSISTENT PRESIDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS NORTHWEST GEORGIA, BRINGING
WITH IT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT --
ALBEIT WITH SCANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
FRONT ITSELF MAY RESULT IN TWO WEAK PUSHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THINGS LOOK TO FIZZLE OUT BETWEEN
ATLANTA AND MACON (AS THEY TEND TO DO). OUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE RATHER ABYSMAL WHEN CONSIDERING OUR ONGOING DROUGHT, WITH 0.1-
0.25" POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85. OROGRAPHICALLY-
FORCED ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY'LL BE THE
EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE
MORE THAN 0.05" OF RAINFALL, AND MOST WILL REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.
IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE EFFECT
OF TOMORROW'S FRONT (SWINGS OF UP TO 20 DEGREES BETWEEN HIGHS
TODAY VS. TOMORROW!). HIGHS WILL LIKELY FAIL TO REACH 70 FOR MANY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85, AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80. GUSTY TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS, TANKING DEWPOINTS, AND A LACK OF
WETTING RAINFALL FOR OUR FINE DRY FUEL SOURCES HAVE NECESSITATED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT FAR
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE ADDITION OF GUSTY
WINDS TO OUR ONGOING DRY SPELL WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. STAY TUNED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE MEAGER RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPROVE FUELS IN THE AREA
OR THE DROUGHT UNFORTUNATELY. MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-30% RANGE ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE LESS GUSTY (12-17MPH RANGE) RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-25%
RANGE LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. PUSHING INTO TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING
WINDS BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE AREA, HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONTINUES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30% ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, SO FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR
LOCAL AREA BURN BANS.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE TO JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 75-80 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THIS TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AT ~10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. TAKING A LOOK INTO THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE AREA COULD BE ENTERING
A WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS WILL COME TOGETHER
BETTER OVER THE WEEK BUT THERE REMAINS INDICATIONS OF THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 06-12Z.
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHRA/MVFR AT RYY THOUGH CHANCES OVERALL ARE
LOW. SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW WITH THE FROPA WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO 20-30KTS AS EARLY AS 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY. SKIES ALSO QUICKLY CLEAR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/MVFR CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 54 72 44 76 / 30 10 0 0
ATLANTA 51 69 48 75 / 50 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 42 62 38 67 / 70 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 46 68 41 75 / 70 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 71 47 79 / 30 20 0 0
GAINESVILLE 51 69 45 74 / 50 10 0 0
MACON 56 72 46 78 / 10 20 0 0
ROME 48 69 41 76 / 80 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 69 43 77 / 40 10 0 0
VIDALIA 64 78 49 79 / 0 20 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>061-066>073-078>084-089>096-
102>108.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...07
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