635
FXUS62 KFFC 201046
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
646 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
MONITORING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN KY/TN BORDER THIS
MORNING THAT IS TRAVELING ESE. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THAT GOT A LITTLE EXTRA HELP FROM A
VORTMAX MOVING OVER THE TOP OF IT FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MOST OF
THE CAMS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM EARLIER TODAY OF DISSIPATING
THIS BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE CWA SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN TN. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY
LAYER NOTED IN ANALYZED MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 925-700MB ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. WHILE THERE IS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY,
MIXED-LAYER FALLS TO BELOW 200 J/KG IN MANY AREAS THANKS TO THAT DRY
LAYER, WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
OF PARCELS. STILL, THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE FOUND
(NOTE CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB) THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT, SO
THERE IS DEFINITELY A WORLD IN WHICH COLD POOL DRIVEN OUTFLOW CAN
KEEP STORMS FIRING FOR A BIT IN GEORGIA. SO, TO SUM IT ALL UP, THINK
THAT THERE IS PROBABLY AROUND 20% CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING
PROGRESS INTO GEORGIA NEAR SUNRISE, WHICH IS DEFINITELY HIGHER THAN
THE CURRENT MODEL PROBABILITIES.
IT'S GONNA BE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF
ELEVATED AREAS. WITH COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECTED TO STALL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO PARTS
OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE DRIER AIR
REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHERE THINGS
ARE A BIT DRIER, EXPECT AIR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE OR HIT THE
TRIPLE DIGITS, WITH MID 90S FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. APPARENT TEMPS
(FEELS LIKE TEMPS) WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE. THESE ARE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY, BUT NOT QUITE THERE.
STILL, USE SOME CAUTION IF OUTDOORS EXERTING YOURSELF, ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
SOME UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND EVOLUTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA, BUT THESE SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. BETTER SHOW
MAY ARRIVE INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS A
BIT MASKED IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE SE. THIS WILL AID IN FIRING UP CONVECTION ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY,
LIKELY ACROSS NORTH MS/AL AND/OR WEST TN. THIS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO GA
SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET, POSSIBLE MIDNIGHT OR LATER. MEAN CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE HREF MODELS ARE 1000-2000 J/KG EVEN AROUND MIDNIGHT, SO
THE INSTABILITY IS THERE. SPC MARGINAL RISK WILL COVER THIS THREAT.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA,
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. BEST CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS UP INTO NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE METRO. AGAIN, AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
BE PRESENT, AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
MOVING INTO SATURDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, THE
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN SITUATED 1) AT THE BASE OF BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING SPANNING MUCH OF ECONUS AND 2) IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS, SUPPORTED BY STAGNATING
RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
GOVERNED LARGELY BY ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE, A COLD FRONT TREKKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, WILL FILTER THROUGH OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY SATURDAY, INITIALLY SERVING TO TAMP DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES
(AND WEAKLY, MORE TRULY OPPRESSIVE HEAT) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DRIER DEWPOINTS (IN THE 60S) WILL GRADUALLY MIX THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA POST-FRONT, HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF AIR TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR ECLIPSING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS RETURNING.
A CAVEAT FOR THE POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY REPRIEVE FROM MORE EXPANSIVE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY FURTHER
PERTURBATIONS IN OUR MID-TO-UPPER FLOW, AS THIS PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS
FOR SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF (AT LEAST) QUASI-ORGANIZED MCS'
THAT ARE OFT-UNDERREPRESENTED BY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
SIMILARLY, EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL KINEMATICS, SUMMERTIME
HEAT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AMPLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT AN ERRANT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON PRETTY MUCH ANY
AFTERNOON WITH NON-ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NEVERTHELESS, IN SPITE OF FRONTAL INFLUENCE, HIGHS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR ALL BUT THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA -- A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE). LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, "COOLEST" (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) ON MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
HIGHER CIGS ARE IMPACTING METRO TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
RAIN AND STORMS OVER TN. THESE AREN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT METRO TAF
SITES BEYOND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL TSRA
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA AFTER 00Z AS MORE ORGANIZED LINE,
BUT UNCERTAINTY AROUND IF AND EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS FORM.
OTHERWISE, NW WINDS AT 4-7 KTS TODAY. NO OTHER VSBY OR CIG
IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING OF TSRA. HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 98 73 94 70 / 10 20 50 40
ATLANTA 98 75 93 73 / 20 30 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 90 67 86 64 / 20 30 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 97 72 93 70 / 20 40 30 20
COLUMBUS 98 75 95 73 / 20 30 50 30
GAINESVILLE 96 73 92 70 / 20 30 50 30
MACON 98 74 95 72 / 10 20 60 40
ROME 96 72 92 69 / 20 40 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 97 72 93 70 / 20 30 50 20
VIDALIA 100 75 98 73 / 0 10 70 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...LUSK
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