804
FXUS62 KFFC 231211
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A HIGH-IMPACT ICE STORM IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THIS WEEKEND, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ICE STORM WARNING
AND WINTER STORM WATCH GIVEN LIKELY POWER OUTAGES AND
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY WILL BE AN ADDED CONCERN FOR THOSE STILL
WITHOUT POWER AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
- NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S EMERGENCY PLAN AND MAKE
PREPARATIONS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVING IN A FEED OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
SATURDAY MARKS THE ONSET OF THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM, WHICH IS
COVERED IN GREAT DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY MORNING, OVERRUNNING
A COOL, RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE COURTESY OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING
"WEDGE" (COLD AIR DAMMING) NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS (FROM A MIX OF GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND EVEN HI-RES MODELS)
DEPICT SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (THE PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IS MAXIMIZED) WITH
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND LOW-LEVELS. THE RESULT
WILL BE EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN,
LEADING TO A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES (FROZEN AND LIQUID) ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA EARLY TO MID-MORNING, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE DEVELOPING WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON, SLEET AND ICE
(FREEZING RAIN) ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
ICE STORM OVERVIEW
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO THE ICE STORM
WARNING REPRESENTS THE AREA WERE WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN
MAJOR/PROLONGED IMPACTS FROM ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS AREA MAY
EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE
OF ICING IN ATLANTA, ALONG INTERSTATE 75 NORTH OF ATLANTA, AND
INTERSTATE 20 EAST OF ATLANTA WAS LOWER. THUS THESE AREAS AND
THEIR SURROUNDING COUNTIES WERE LEFT IN A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
NOW. WE WILL REEVALUATE THE CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER
THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE UPDATES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSION TO THE ICE STORM WARNING IS PROBABLE AT SOME POINT.
WEDGE INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING & SUNDAY
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS A VIRTUAL SLAM DUNK (>99%
CHANCE) DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF
THE ICE STORM WILL BE DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE. AN
INTENSE SURFACE HIGH (NEAR 1046 MB) OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST WILL ENSURE THAT
A STRONG WEDGE IS IN PLACE BY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA. MEANWHILE WITHIN THE WEDGE, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
STRONG CAA AND DRY ADVECTION. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS
COOL DRY AIR, IT WILL LEAD TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
REINFORCE THE WEDGE. IT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WEDGE AND LEAD TO EXTENSIVE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 85 AND HWY 23 IN
NORTHEAST GEORGIA) BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
WITH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WEDGE ON SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST ENHANCES SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. EXPERIENCE WITH PAST EVENTS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS IS A COMMON BIAS FOR THE MODELS AND THUS OUR FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE WEDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO GEORGIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TIGHTEN. SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SOUTH OF MACON, WHILE
CONTINUED EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KEEP NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE
AND LOWER 30S. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THE NORTH TO SOUTH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OVER A 3 TO 4 COUNTY DISTANCE REACHED 30
DEGREES AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS THINKING, FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN A HAZARD IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DECENT WARM SECTOR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EPS MEMBERS CONSISTENTLY WANT TO PULL
THIS WARM SECTOR NORTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHILE THE GEFS
MEMBERS ARE ALMOST ALL OPPOSED TO THIS SOLUTION. PRECISELY WHAT
HAPPENS SHOULD DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THAT
WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
OUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA LEANS TOWARDS THE EPS SOLUTION.
IF THIS OCCURS MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 200 TO 700 J/KG RANGE MAY
OCCUR. THIS COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT THIS
WOULD BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS RISK REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL, REQUIRING THE WARM
SECTOR TO REACH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR, SHARP TEMPERATURE FALLS AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
THE WIND GUSTS THAT COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ICING (MAINLY
NORTHEAST GEORGIA). CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SUGGESTS A 40 TO
60% CHANCE OF 25 MPH GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ODDS OF 35
MPH GUSTS ARE LOWER (~10%).
HAZARDOUS COLD MONDAY & TUESDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL USHER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO
GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A LARGE SNOWPACK TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY THE COLD AS WELL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON TUESDAY. COMBINE
THE COLD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS, AND MORNING WIND CHILLS MAY
BE AT OR BELOW ZERO IN NORTH GEORGIA. THERE IS A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TUESDAY MORNING AND AT LEAST
A LOW RISK OF US NEEDING TO ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. ANYONE
WITHOUT POWER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF
COLD RELATED ILLNESS. THE RISK OF PIPES BURSTING WOULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20 ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
IFR TO PATCHY LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS TO MVFR POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MVFR THEREAFTER WITH VFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY BY 03-06Z AT ATL AREA SITES. WIND REMAINS NE TO AT 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 48 35 41 25 / 40 10 50 100
ATLANTA 50 38 42 30 / 20 10 50 100
BLAIRSVILLE 47 29 39 25 / 10 10 60 100
CARTERSVILLE 48 34 44 30 / 10 10 50 100
COLUMBUS 59 43 52 43 / 30 10 40 80
GAINESVILLE 47 36 39 27 / 30 10 50 100
MACON 60 42 49 37 / 40 10 40 80
ROME 51 33 46 34 / 10 10 60 100
PEACHTREE CITY 53 38 44 33 / 20 10 40 100
VIDALIA 67 44 51 40 / 10 10 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011-012-019.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ013-020-021-030>039-041>051-053>062-072>076.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ014>016-022>025-027.
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM....ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...RW
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