440
FXUS62 KFFC 300005
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS A LINE GENERALLY STRETCHING FROM NW GA DOWN THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL GA. THIS FOLLOWS STATIONARY FRONT WHICH HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR TODAY, CONVECTION COVERAGE HAS UNDER-
PERFORMED RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, ALLOWING FOR GREATER
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY GREATER RATIO THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT NORTHWARD AND
DRIVE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, THOUGH THESE MAY
COME IN WAVES, WITH INTERMITTENT OFF/ON PATTERNS. PRECIP CHANCES
TAPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE REINVIGORATING SATURDAY MID
DAY. COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT PUSHES AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH FORCING LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE
TOMORROW (LOW CAPE FROM CLOUD COVERAGE AND UNIMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
UPLIFT), SHOWERS MAY BE LIGHT AND PATCHY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIP
LIKELY TAPERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (AT LEAST FOR NORTH
GEORGIA). SUNDAY POPS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS SFC FLOW TURNS OUT OF
THE EAST, DEVELOPING A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A GENERALLY 0.5" TO
1.5" ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
(RELATIVELY) SET UP AND IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVED AS
MUCH AS 2.5 TO 3 INCHES (90TH-95TH PERCENTILE) THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN UNDERSHOOTING THIS. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER AS THE WEDGE DEVELOPS AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY
(THOUGH CENTRAL GA WILL BE CLOSER TO 80).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY SUNDAY THE OVER ALL SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK
OR SO WILL HAVE TURNED MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS TURN IN THE
OVERALL FLOW DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE ACTUAL FORECAST AS WAVES
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS VERSUS THE
GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SUN AND MON WITH POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE
40% TO 80% RANGE. WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING, IT WILL TAKE LESS RAIN
TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH RAIN RATES
IN THE 2" TO 3" PER HOUR RANGE. THE MODELS KEEP US IN A VERY WET
PATTERN THROUGH MON NIGHT, BUT THEN THINGS MAY DRY OUT A BIT.
THERE IS A BIT OF GOOD NEWS POSSIBLY AS BOTH THE GFE AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKE
STATES TUE BRINGING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE FOR
WED/THU. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HOVERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW SO
BEGINNING TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.
KEEPING POPS IN THE 20% TO 30% RANGE FOR TUES...WITH 15% OR LESS FOR
WED AND THU.
TEMPS STAY FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH/CENTRAL
GA, INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CSG. SCATTERED TSRA HAS
WARRANTED A TEMPO AT ATL THROUGH 01Z. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, THOUGH SHRA WILL LINGER THROUGH 05-06Z.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z, WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVAILING AT 10Z. CEILINGS WILL
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, RISING BACK TO MVFR
AROUND 15-16Z. AFTER LESSER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. TSRA
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 19Z ON SATURDAY. SE WINDS OF 5 KTS OR
LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01-02Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING W/SW AT 3-6 KTS BY 10-12Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 66 82 61 73 / 80 70 40 40
ATLANTA 67 82 65 75 / 70 70 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 62 78 57 71 / 80 70 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 66 83 64 77 / 70 70 20 40
COLUMBUS 68 85 67 82 / 70 70 40 70
GAINESVILLE 66 81 62 71 / 80 70 40 30
MACON 66 84 65 78 / 70 60 60 60
ROME 66 83 64 77 / 80 70 20 40
PEACHTREE CITY 66 83 64 76 / 70 70 40 50
VIDALIA 68 86 67 80 / 60 60 70 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page