542
FXUS62 KFFC 161024
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING
CRISP FALL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TO START
OFF THE WEEKEND.
- THE FIRST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES (<35F) OF THE SEASON ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A ROBUST TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DEFINE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWATS < 1.3) WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CAM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POPS MAY BE
NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT, SO MAY SEE AN UPTREND IN THE POPS AS WE GET THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST UPDATES. FOR NOW, POPS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A
COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE WIND RISK. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS
ON THE NORTH GA RIDGELINES COULD REACH 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH RECENT
WIND DAMAGE FROM LAST WEEK'S STORM, TREES AND LIMBS COULD BE MORE
PRONE TO WIND DAMAGE.
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PWATS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.25" TO <0.5" IN ABOUT 24 HRS. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND 40S (MUCH MORE SEASONABLE).
TEMPERATURES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN FAR NORTHEAST GA MAY
ACTUALLY APPROACH FROST CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BRING CONTINUED PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, MIDLEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND ITS GRIP EASTWARD. COOL, BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 60S FOR MOST), SUNDAY WILL FEEL DECIDEDLY FALL-LIKE.
THOUGH MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BEGIN A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE BACK TOWARD THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S THEREAFTER. ALL-IN-ALL, NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING PLEASANT AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL PROSPECTS ARE CONCERNED, CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS BONE DRY. IN FACT,
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIKELY DRY WEATHER EXTENDING TOWARD
THE END OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. A FAST MOVING, MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTN. WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONT OUT OF THE NW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. SOME ISO SHRA MAY BE PSBL THIS AFTN, MOSTLY N
OF I85, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY AND BRIEF. SCT MVFR PSBL
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, THOUGH LIKELY LESS THAN 1 HOUR.
WINDS TURN MORE N THRU OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE -SHRA RISK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 86 52 66 44 / 0 10 0 0
ATLANTA 84 51 65 47 / 10 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 80 42 58 35 / 10 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 85 48 64 42 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 52 70 49 / 10 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 83 50 64 44 / 10 10 0 0
MACON 88 54 70 48 / 0 10 0 0
ROME 85 48 63 41 / 20 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 85 48 66 44 / 10 10 0 0
VIDALIA 87 61 69 49 / 0 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM
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