108
FXUS62 KFFC 011856
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023
AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BUILDS IN, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL GAIN STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM, NOW
DENOTED AS AL91 BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, HAS BEEN GIVEN A
70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
LATEST OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BRING ANY IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL MEAN THAT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING THE MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING HOURS
PRODUCING TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IN THE FORECAST. TOMORROW, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
85. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW WHERE THEY
ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
KAL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL PATTERN STILL MOSTLY DOMINATED BY SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. HIGH-
OVER-LOW BLOCK THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN INTO OMEGA BLOCK SPANNING THE
ENTIRE CONUS STARTING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING OVER THE SW
AND SE U.S. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SE UPPER LOW/TROUGH,
PATTERN WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH SLIGHTLY (SURPRISINGLY)
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
AS FOR SPECIFIC FEATURES OF INTEREST, WHATS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL LOW
SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTH TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE
SATURDAY THEN BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY AND/OR WASHOUT DEPENDING ON
WHICH ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTION SPACE YOU ASCRIBE TO.
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY ON SUNDAY WITH 1020MB
SFC HIGH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING PRETTY GOOD INTO THE
STATE. WON'T COOL US OFF TOO MUCH BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT AS WELL AS
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
COMPARED WITH OTHER DAYS NEXT WEEK. STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ORGANIZED OR SEVERE. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE HIGHER, WOULD SEE
STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT FORECAST STILL INDICATING
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SNELSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE TAF CYCLE. SCT/FEW050 CU FIELD
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO FEW250 AND RETURN TOMORROW
AFTER 15-17Z. NE/E WINDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 KT THROUGHOUT TAF CYCLE
BECOMING VRB03KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
KAL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 62 86 63 89 / 0 10 0 10
ATLANTA 66 87 66 90 / 0 10 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 58 82 58 85 / 30 30 0 20
CARTERSVILLE 63 87 63 91 / 10 30 10 20
COLUMBUS 65 89 66 91 / 0 10 0 10
GAINESVILLE 63 86 63 89 / 10 20 10 20
MACON 64 87 65 90 / 0 10 0 10
ROME 63 88 63 92 / 10 20 0 20
PEACHTREE CITY 63 87 63 89 / 0 10 0 10
VIDALIA 65 86 65 89 / 0 10 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...KAL
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