255
FXUS62 KFFC 182341
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID
100S TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION AND CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE REGIME LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER GEORGIA, MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE DAILY
NORMALS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, RISING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. SUCH HIGHS ARE BETWEEN 6-10
DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS
TO MACON AND BETWEEN 10-16 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS IN AREAS TO
THE NORTH. HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN NORTH GEORGIA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION, WITH SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO PEAK BETWEEN 2000-
3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING LEE
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS HOT, UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT ARRIVES
IN NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE LEE
TROUGH PUSHES IT FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1.6-2 INCHES.
LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAKENING RETREATING RIDGE (SAY THAT FIVE TIMES FAST) WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000- 1200 J/KG IN NORTH GEORGIA. THESE FACTORS IN
ADDITION TO ROBUST SBCAPE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION, WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 1
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE ATLANTA
METRO AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, AS A RESULT.
ON SATURDAY, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ENTER THE EASTERN GULF. WARM AND MOIST AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PROMOTE THE FURTHER INCREASE OF
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND PWATS TO BETWEEN 1.8-2.2
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY AMID INCREASING MOISTURE, RISING TO BETWEEN 99-104 DEGREES IN
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE GREATER ON SATURDAY, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. THUS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA,
WARRANTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
KING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
FOLKS, THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION. THE 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY EXIT THE
CWA. THIS IS NOT A DRILL. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS ZERO 90
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA, AND THERE IS PRETTY DARN GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT AS TO WHY
(FOR NOW). WE JUST GOT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NE THIS WEEKEND WON'T BRING A STRONG
ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH TO SEND ANY SORT OF RELIEF OUR WAY JUST YET
(FORESHADOWING!), AND INSTEAD MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS
THE TUTT BECOME CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE MOVES TO THE
WEST. EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS
TIME, MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR THAT SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CANADA TRAILING ANOTHER
TROUGH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE JET THAT HAS BEEN SHUNTED PRETTY
FAR POLEWARD FOR SEPTEMBER. THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
MARITIME CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH BROAD REFLECTION WELL INTO THE NE
CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS VERY BROAD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN
THIS, BOTH IN THE EURO AND GEFS, WITH GEFS SHOWING AN -AVERAGE-
HIGH STRENGTH AROUND 1035 MB IN SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS, AN
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL 5-6 DAYS OUT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PRETTY
DECENT CAD EVENT, WITH THE WEDGE WELL SOUTH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.
WHERE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY LIES IS IN HOW THE CUT-OFF LOWS TO
THE WEST INTERACT WITH ALL OF THIS. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOWS ONE AS A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH THAT HELPS AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW THAT ENHANCES THE WEDGE, WITH TIMING VARIABLE ON WHEN
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME, ONE RESULT
THAT LOOKS CLEAR IS THAT COOLER, MORE FALL-LIKE AIR SHOULD COME
INTO THE CWA SOME TIME NEXT WEEK. IF THE STRONGEST OF OUR WEDGE
DREAMS COME TRUE, HIGH TEMPS COULD BE AS LOW AS THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS (LOOKING AT YOU 10TH PERCENTILE), WHILE 80S SEEM TO BE MORE
FAVORED AT THE MOMENT.
LUSK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT MOST
SITES. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF IFR-LIFR WITH FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AFTER 07Z. OTHERWISE, SOME
PATCHY REDUCED VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 3SM IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
GEORGIA AFTER 07Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN NE AT 5-8KTS DURING THE DAYTIME
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VIS RESTRICTIONS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 94 70 89 / 20 50 40 30
ATLANTA 74 95 72 91 / 30 40 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 66 88 64 85 / 10 50 30 80
CARTERSVILLE 71 96 70 93 / 20 40 30 30
COLUMBUS 74 97 73 93 / 10 50 40 20
GAINESVILLE 71 92 71 88 / 20 50 40 40
MACON 72 95 71 92 / 10 30 40 30
ROME 71 97 69 94 / 20 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 95 70 92 / 10 40 40 30
VIDALIA 72 94 72 92 / 10 30 30 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...82
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