621
FXUS62 KFFC 161857
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
2PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR NORTHWEST GA TO
UPPER 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS (EASTMAN/DUBLIN/VIDALIA). LOW
TO MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY), REMNANT ENERGY FROM "BARRY"
OVER ARKANSAS FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT - ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN NW FLOW
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH GA DURING THIS TIME.
DJN.83
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONLY TWEEKS MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HEAT
INDICES HAVE DROP 1-2 DEGREES WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND CAREFUL
ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LOW-RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
HAVE DISCREPANCIES, BUT WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GFS
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TRAPPED
UNDER THE BROADER SYNOPTIC RIDGE, WE'VE BUMPED RAIN CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY IN AREAS WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS EXIST.
THIEM
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WEATHER FOR ALL 7 TERMINALS EXPECTED OVER NEXT
24 HOURS. AREA REMAINS BETWEEN WEAK UPR RIDGE TO THE EAST AND REMNANTS
OF TC BARRY TO THE WEST OVER ARKLAMISS REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, WITH SFC WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BECOMING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL (4-6KFT AGL) MOISTURE TOMORROW
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUD-COVER (SCT-BKN DECK) BUT STILL
REMAIN GENERALLY VFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 95 74 94 / 10 10 10 30
ATLANTA 76 92 75 92 / 5 20 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 68 84 68 85 / 10 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 73 90 72 93 / 5 30 30 40
COLUMBUS 76 95 76 95 / 5 5 10 30
GAINESVILLE 74 90 73 90 / 5 20 20 40
MACON 75 97 75 96 / 10 5 5 30
ROME 73 89 73 93 / 10 40 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 74 92 74 93 / 5 10 20 40
VIDALIA 76 97 76 98 / 20 20 20 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....THIEM
AVIATION...DJN.83
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