469
FXUS62 KFFC 281844
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
SMALL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. OVERNIGHT, A DESCENDING
FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY DESCENDING DOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE SOME BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT, HOWEVER THE BEST FORCING WILL COME
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THERE ARE
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CAVEATS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE COLLISION BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS.
FIRST, HOW FAST WILL THE SURFACE FRONT DESCEND INTO THE AREA. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BROUGHT THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS DID IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. THIS PRIMES THE AREA, SETTING UP A BOUNDARY FOR PRECIPITATION
TO SIT ON. THE SECOND WILL BE HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO
DRIVE SOME LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AS A MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM.
LITTLE VARIATIONS IN THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
IN RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. AND FINALLY, THE HOW WILL THE STALLING FRONT
MOVE/WHERE WILL IT SETTLE, WILL DETERMINE WHERE/IF HEAVY RAIN COULD
FALL.
THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PWATS WILL BE OVER 1.5 TO 1.6"
ACROSS CENTRAL GA (THOUGH A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED), AND THAT CAPE VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST 500 J/KG.
THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA, OR WHEREVER THE FRONT
STALLS OUT. CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO RESOLVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF 4"+ RAIN
OVER 24-HRS, WHICH WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN MOST SPOTS GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. ALL THAT SAID, ANY HEAVY RAIN-POCKET WILL BE ISOLATED, AND
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRAINING OF CELLS RATHER THAN STRONG STORMS LIKE
LAST WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER RAIN RATES WOULD ARE NEEDED TO INDUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
DROUGHT IS AT ITS WORST.
ANY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT REBOUNDS
NORTHWARD. EXPECT FURTHER RAIN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MORE STORM MOTION WILL MEAN A LOWER FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER, AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GA, ESPECIALLY
WITH HEAVIER CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STILL
FLOWING ACROSS THE AREA AS A BERMUDA HAS STAYED STEADFAST OFF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TURN IN THE OVERALL FLOW DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE
ACTUAL FORECAST AS WAVES BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS VERSUS THE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SAT THROUGH TUES WITH
POPS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 40% TO 80% RANGE. WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING, IT WILL TAKE LESS RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH RAIN RATES RANGING FROM 2-3" PER HOUR. THE
MODELS KEEP US IN A VERY WET PATTERN THROUGH TUE, BUT THEN THINGS
MAY DRY OUT A BIT.
THERE IS A BIT OF GOOD NEWS POSSIBLY AS BOTH THE GFE AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKE
STATES TUE AFTERNOON BRINGING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
STATE FOR NEXT WED. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF
THE REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL HOVERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH GA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR A FEW
DAYS NOW SO BEGINNING TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING. KEEPING POPS IN THE 20% TO 40% RANGE NEXT WED BUT COULD
SEE US LOWERING POPS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS STAY FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
LARGELY VFR THROUGH AFTN. ISO/SCT SHRA AND TSRA PEAK 20Z TO 00Z,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EVENING. FURTHER SHRA AND TSRA TO
DEVELOP FRI MORNING GENERALLY ALONG LINE FROM NORTHWEST GA DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL GA INCLUDING MCN, CSG, AND ATL METRO. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS PSBL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. WINDS CURRENTLY FROM NW WILL SWITCH TO
NE THEN E BY 10-12Z FRIDAY. SPEEDS LIGHT TO 4-8KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 66 81 65 79 / 30 40 90 90
ATLANTA 69 80 67 81 / 30 70 90 90
BLAIRSVILLE 62 77 61 75 / 10 30 80 90
CARTERSVILLE 67 82 66 81 / 20 60 90 90
COLUMBUS 68 85 67 84 / 40 80 60 80
GAINESVILLE 66 78 66 78 / 30 30 90 90
MACON 67 82 66 82 / 30 80 80 90
ROME 67 82 66 80 / 20 60 80 90
PEACHTREE CITY 67 81 66 82 / 40 80 80 90
VIDALIA 70 84 68 84 / 30 80 60 90
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM
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