899
FXUS62 KFFC 051144
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL (15-20+ DEGREES)
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THREATENING SOME DAILY RECORDS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS BUILDING IN FROM THE COAST. THESE LOW CEILING SHOULD MOVE
INTO CENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO THE ATL AREA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THEY BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
15 TO 20 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A FEW WEAK WAVES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF BEGINNING FRI. THIS WILL BE A CATALYST FOR SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY INDICES
ARE DECENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN ALL BUT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-22 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
MARCH. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION,
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER TO
THE EAST, ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SINK CLOSER TO NORTH
GEORGIA. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, THEY WILL OVERRUN THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH MORE
SCATTERED, DIURNAL COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASED CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPARED
TO LOW TO MID 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. STRONGER DYNAMICS AND LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL APPEAR THAT
THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS, THE RISK
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONGER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY, WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE
EXPECTED. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO THEIR WARMEST IN THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
AREAS IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 90. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO BE LATE
NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH GEORGIA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS SYSTEM'S TIMING AND INTENSITY, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO COME INTO
BETTER FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
STARTING THIS TAF SET OFF WITH LOW CEILINGS STILL MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST AND PUSHING INTO THE AHN/ATL AREAS.
THESE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY 14Z-16Z.
WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS AFTER THAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR
CEILINGS BUILDING BACK IN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE SW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH TODAY. MAY
SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WITH THE LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT
THEY WILL LIFT IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE CEILINGS. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 78 60 81 61 / 0 10 30 30
ATLANTA 78 60 82 63 / 0 10 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 74 55 76 58 / 0 10 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 40 40
COLUMBUS 81 60 82 61 / 10 10 50 20
GAINESVILLE 77 59 79 61 / 0 10 30 40
MACON 81 60 83 62 / 10 10 30 20
ROME 85 60 86 63 / 0 0 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 80 59 82 61 / 0 10 40 30
VIDALIA 83 62 85 63 / 10 0 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...01
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