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FXUS62 KFFC 151733
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AMID RETURNING MOISTURE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SWEEPING EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A VERY ACTIVE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A DYNAMIC
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED
IN SHORT ORDER BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. FIRST THINGS FIRST,
LET'S START OFF WITH WHAT'S NEW:
1. THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC NOW INCLUDES A SMALL
ENHANCED RISK AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
ADDITION IS DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT (IF IT OCCURS) COULD PRESENT A HIGHER
TORNADO RISK EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL BE DISCUSSED FURTHER
BELOW.
2. A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT.
TODAY (THROUGH THIS EVENING):
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL EJECT AND DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, LEADING TO THE RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF OUR PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THIS, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY. AS DIURNAL HEATING LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION
BY THE AFTERNOON, CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRESENT A LOW-END/CONDITIONAL STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK GIVEN SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS LIKELY TO
BE JUST EAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THINGS LOOK TO
DRY OUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING:
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO AN APPROACHING ONGOING QLCS THAT WILL BE
RAPIDLY RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT TO THE AREA AS IT WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY KINEMATICS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, DESPITE
FAIRLY LIMITED CAPE OF 300-600 J/KG AS IT ARRIVES IN NORTH GEORGIA.
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE ARE THUS EXPECTED TO THE
THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THIS LINE LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER 1-2 AM AND QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
NOW, REGARDING THE ADDITION OF THE ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
CAMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY INDICATING AN AREA OF MORE ENHANCED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DESTABILIZATION LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HERE, WHERE SBCAPE
COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG, ANY ISOLATED, DISCREET THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS
ABLE TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LINE COULD TAP INTO THE 40-45 KT
LLJ, AND SUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD PRESENT AN INCREASED
TORNADO RISK - PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ABILITY FOR ANY DISCREET STORMS TO FORM BEFORE THE MAIN LINE SWEEPS
IN AND PUTS AN END TO THIS ENVIRONMENT; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING GIVEN THE "HIGHER CEILING" TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BE ABLE TO FORM.
MONDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRIEFLY EXIST IN THE
FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE COMING TO
A VERY QUICK END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE, DROPPING QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AMID GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GIVEN ANTICIPATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS LEADING INTO A COLD MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, A MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 20S IN NORTH GA, AND UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL GA, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING THE 'FEELS-LIKE' TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S,
WHICH WILL FEEL VERY COLD AFTER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, AS SPRING VEGETATION AND CROPS
WOULD BE AT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR DAMAGE FROM THE HARD FREEZE.
WARMING TREND AND DRY MID TO LATE WEEK:
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A VERY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL START TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND
SPREAD INTO OUR AREA, KICKING OUT THE COLD AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 70S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS CLIMBING BACK UP TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY, AND 50S BY SATURDAY. BETWEEN THE DRY NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10% THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VERY COLD AND DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, A MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 20S IN NORTH GA, AND UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL GA, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING THE 'FEELS-LIKE' TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S,
WHICH WILL FEEL VERY COLD AFTER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH
WEAKENING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, AS SPRING VEGETATION AND CROPS
WOULD BE AT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR DAMAGE FROM THE HARD FREEZE.
WARMING TREND AND DRY MID TO LATE WEEK:
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A VERY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL START TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND
SPREAD INTO OUR AREA, KICKING OUT THE COLD AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 70S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS CLIMBING BACK UP TO THE 40S BY
FRIDAY, AND 50S BY SATURDAY. BETWEEN THE DRY NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10% THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MVFR LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH EVENING. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
SSW WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS LEADING LINE OF TSRA. TSRA
TONIGHT AND TMRW MORN MAY BRING GUSTS WELL OVER 40KTS. WINDS
SWITCH TO W TO NW REMAINING GUSTY TO END OF DAY MONDAY. CIGS FALL
TSRA AND REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
LIFTING QUICKLY AFTER PRECIP. PATCHES OF NON-ACCUMULATING -SNPL
PSBL BEHIND LINE AFTER 17Z TMRW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE DURATION OF TSRA TMRW.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 56 60 28 / 40 60 80 0
ATLANTA 73 48 55 28 / 20 80 80 0
BLAIRSVILLE 65 44 50 19 / 30 90 80 0
CARTERSVILLE 75 45 50 25 / 10 90 70 0
COLUMBUS 80 54 59 30 / 0 70 70 0
GAINESVILLE 68 51 57 27 / 30 80 90 0
MACON 79 60 64 30 / 20 50 80 0
ROME 78 48 51 27 / 10 90 50 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 49 55 27 / 10 80 80 0
VIDALIA 84 66 70 33 / 40 40 80 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...SM
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