882  
FXUS62 KFFC 080017  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
817 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
IS ONGOING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AS A DISTURBANCE ROUNDS  
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING  
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL, PROVIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS  
THESE AREAS. INITIALLY, VERY LIGHT RAINFALL/SPRINKLES FROM MID-LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS  
ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED  
AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE APPROACHING WAVE, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK  
THIS AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY.  
 
OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT WILL  
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE, THOUGH RICHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS  
NORTHEASTWARD.  
 
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE  
80S ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING NEAR TO OVER  
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO SPECIFIC LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM,  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG ANY  
LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. SEVERAL HI-RESOLUTION MODEL  
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY, A RISK FOR  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER SUNSET, OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD WANE  
WITH A LIKELY BREAK IN CONVECTION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE NEXT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE BY EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE  
AREA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION  
OF ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL  
THAT A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD PUSH INTO  
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RISK FOR STRONG  
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD THUS EXIST WITH THIS ANY PREFRONTAL  
LINEAR CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.  
 
RW  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS HAVE COME  
MORE IN LINE OVERALL. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO GA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE...WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL  
RISK...WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER IN A SLIGHT RISK. MODELS CONTINUE  
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH NOW SEEMS LIKE  
AN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO HAVE  
STARTED OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS  
NORTHWEST...THEN DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.  
MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PERIOD OF DRYING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE  
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH A RETURN TO A MOIST  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. QPF TOTALS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY PERIOD COULD BE TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY  
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WE STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A  
SOUTHWEST FLOW SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z UPDATE...  
 
MAIN -RA SHIELD HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TERMINALS AS WELL  
AS AHN. STILL A FEW HOURS LEFT HOWEVER OF ACTIVITY FOR CSG AND  
MCN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, LOWER CIGS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY  
MOVE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.  
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST TIMING OF SHRA AND TSRA BUT FOR  
NOW WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY NEED  
ANOTHER PROB30 WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES FOR WED AFTERNOON FOR  
POTENTIAL TSRA.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...  
 
MEDIUM ON IFR AND PRECIP TIMING.  
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.  
 
DEESE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 61 84 64 79 / 30 20 10 30  
ATLANTA 62 82 65 75 / 50 40 20 30  
BLAIRSVILLE 55 77 58 66 / 50 50 30 30  
CARTERSVILLE 60 81 62 73 / 50 50 30 30  
COLUMBUS 64 83 66 84 / 40 40 20 20  
GAINESVILLE 60 80 63 74 / 30 30 20 30  
MACON 63 84 66 84 / 40 30 20 20  
ROME 60 81 62 72 / 50 40 40 40  
PEACHTREE CITY 61 83 64 78 / 50 40 20 30  
VIDALIA 65 84 68 88 / 30 40 20 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RW  
LONG TERM....41  
AVIATION...DEESE  
 
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