769
FXUS62 KFFC 051817
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY,
AGAIN BRINGING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
SEASONAL NORMS (MID-80S TO LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR CONSISTENCY, YOU'LL FIND IT IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DYING MIDLEVEL LOW AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH. FORTUNATELY, CONVECTION HAS A BIT MORE FORWARD MOVEMENT
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, HELPING TO LIMIT THE RESIDENCY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ANY ONE SPOT. STILL, GIVEN THE SOUPY
ENVIRONMENT, ANY TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
THEN DISSIPATE MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CONSISTENCY IS KEY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS WE
TRANSITION INTO A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH. AS SUCH, A GOOD
SMATTERING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY NOTCH
UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL FAIRLY TAME FOR EARLY
AUGUST, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN,
WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MORE PROMINENT BERMUDA HIGH AND
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CWA WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED PWATS RANGING FROM
1.5-2". THIS SETUP WILL REINFORCE THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRICTER DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. POP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-60% RANGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CLOUD COVER AND
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES, RISING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN AREAS BY THE WEEKEND. AS
CONDITIONS WARM, THE POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE- DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL
INCREASE, AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR (4-6 KFT) OUTSIDE
OF SHRA/TSRA. AREAS OF LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY 10-12Z THURSDAY
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR AHN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
IS LOW. ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY,
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN SSE AND SSW WITH SPEEDS 3-6 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND MORNING LOW CIG POTENTIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 88 70 89 / 30 40 40 60
ATLANTA 72 89 72 89 / 20 40 30 50
BLAIRSVILLE 65 82 66 83 / 30 70 30 80
CARTERSVILLE 71 90 71 91 / 10 50 20 50
COLUMBUS 74 93 73 93 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 70 87 70 87 / 40 60 40 70
MACON 71 92 71 92 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 70 90 71 91 / 10 50 10 40
PEACHTREE CITY 70 90 70 90 / 10 40 20 40
VIDALIA 73 93 72 94 / 40 40 20 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...RW
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