779
FXUS62 KFFC 162357
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- OVERNIGHT LIGHT RAIN COULD TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OVER THE
HIGHER NORTHEAST GEORGIA ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- WINTRY PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL FORECAST SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED IN
BOTH LOCATION AND AMOUNTS TO FOCUS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SUNNY SKIES WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK TODAY, WITH CLOUDY, MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST FOCUSES ON TWO
WAVES OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
-TONIGHT AND SATURDAY-
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD TROUGH
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE THIS
FRONT FROM BEHIND, PUSHING IT INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT.
FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LOSE
ITS STRUCTURE ON ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AS FORCING WEAKENS.
A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY. AT
LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE; HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY (NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE AT 10-15 PERCENT). ANY
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIMITED, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.2-0.4 INCHES OVER FAR
NORTH GEORGIA AND A DECREASING GRADIENT OF AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. IN GENERAL, METRO ATLANTA SHOULD SEE
UNDER 0.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
BEHIND THE DIMINISHING LINE OF SHOWERS, EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 60S OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA.
-SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY-
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE BOTH THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND THE BIGGEST FORECAST
HEADACHE.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
SWINGS ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SURFACE LOW MOISTURE BLOSSOMS AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, COMBINING WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIXED PRECIP OVER
THE AREA.
IN SHORT, THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A LOWERING OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A LOCATION SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, THIS DOES NOT
MEAN THE ATLANTA METRO AREA IS IN THE CLEAR JUST YET.
MOST MODELS ARE LARGELY SHOWING RAIN AT ONSET FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SPREADING RAIN
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OR WET SNOW
ON THE NORTHERN/BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHERE THE
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF
SNOW/MIX HOLDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST RISK FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLUMBUS TO GRIFFIN TO MADISON.
IN GENERAL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 0.5
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1.0 INCHES. THE NBM 90
PERCENT PROBABILITIES DO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA (SOUTH OF MACON), BUT THIS
IS A STATISTICALLY UNLIKELY SCENARIO.
FROM A FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT
QUESTIONS THAT MAY FIND ANSWERS BOTH IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND/OR
AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS, SUCH AS:
- HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE TROUGH DIG?
- WILL WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRIVING SYSTEM KEEP
THE ENVIRONMENT TOO WARM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR SNOW?
- WILL THE REINFORCING FEEDBACK OF SNOW ON TEMPERATURES CREATE
A MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL OVER A BROADER FOOTPRINT?
- HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION REACH?
THIS TYPE OF EVENT FORECAST CAN CHANGE DRASTICALLY WITH ONLY
MINUTE CHANGES IN PREDICTED CONDITIONS, HENCE OUR CALL TO 'NOT LET
DOWN YOUR GUARD' IF YOUR FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW YOUR
AREA BEING IMPACTED. THERE IS AMPLE TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES
AND POTENTIAL WINTER HEADLINES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD PICKS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWING THE EXIT
OF THE COMPLEX SYSTEM COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
TANK INTO THE TEEN PERCENTAGES AND LOW- TO MID-20 PERCENTAGES,
RESPECTIVELY. THE RELATIVELY BREEZY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH) THAT ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY SHOULD DRY OUT VEGETATION AND SMALLER FUELS, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCES OF FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IF GUSTIER CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED EITHER DAY,
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CHANGE AROUND
MIDWEEK, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN PROMPTS THE INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR RAIN (15% TO 25% POPS) AT THE TAIL END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CONDS INITIALLY VFR AND PRIMARILY SKC WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE
NIGHT. EXPECT BKN TO OVC MVFR CIGS BY 07-08Z, WITH CHCS FOR IFR
CIGS IN -SHRA FROM 08-14Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO SCT MVFR IS
LIKELY BY 15-16Z AND FEW TO SCT CIGS AT 2-3KFT MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTN. WINDS INITIALLY HUGGING THE SSE AT 8-10KTS WILL SHIFT SSW BY
03Z, REMAINING ON THE W SIDE AT 7-10KTS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PD. PCPN CHCS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING 00Z SUNDAY, WITH
LOW-END (AND LOW CONF) CHCS FOR RASN/-SN AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE
(JUST OUTSIDE OF CURRENT TAF PD).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE TIMING/CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AM WINTER PRECIPITATION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 36 54 31 40 / 30 30 40 20
ATLANTA 41 52 30 39 / 50 30 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 30 46 20 34 / 80 20 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 38 51 25 39 / 70 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 42 56 32 44 / 20 40 50 20
GAINESVILLE 36 51 30 39 / 60 30 20 10
MACON 38 59 32 44 / 0 40 70 50
ROME 39 54 28 44 / 90 10 10 0
PEACHTREE CITY 39 54 28 41 / 40 30 40 10
VIDALIA 35 65 36 44 / 0 10 80 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...96
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