254
FXUS62 KFFC 120235
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1035 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE BORDER OF FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA,
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVING
ENTERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR BETWEEN
20-25 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES BETWEEN 100-150 M2/S2, A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE EXHIBITED BROAD ROTATION AND PRODUCED GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30-35 MPH. THAT SAID, WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, SBCAPE
VALUES HAVE BECOME NEGLIGIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA, WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES IN
THIS AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD, PRECIPITATION WILL
ARRIVE IN WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 2-3 AM IN THE MORNING. SBCAPE
VALUES TO THE SOUTH OF I-20 ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 500-1000
J/KG, WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS
ROUND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AROUND
SUNRISE AND INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
INCREASING SW FLOW HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE CU FIELD
OVER WESTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE TRANQUIL BUT ALL
EYES REMAIN FOCUSED TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT USHERS IN A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST MOVE INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
AS EARLY AS 6 TO 7 PM THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD. A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GULF WILL AID IN ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND HELP TO REINFORCE THE
LINE AS IT'S ENTERING OUR AREA AND PUSHING EASTWARD. SRH VALUES
100- 150 M2/S2 MAY FAVOR EMBEDDED SPIN UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE AS WELL. AS PER USUAL, HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION.
THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST HREF GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
SMALL PEAK IN MUCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) FROM ROUGHLY I-20 SOUTHWARD
AND I-75 WESTWARD. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SPIN-UP TORNADOES AND SMALL HAIL ARE
SECONDARY THREATS PARTICULARLY FOR THE CORRIDOR PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED (INCLUDING THE COLUMBUS AREA). WHILE AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE HAZARDS MENTIONED ABOVE INCLUDE
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOWNED TREES/POWERLINES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND SW COUNTIES -- IN LINE WITH OUR
THINKING CONCERNING THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE LINE OVERNIGHT TO THE
SOUTH. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDS FURTHER EAST
ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS MARGINAL RISK
DOES EXTEND INTO THE 'DAY 2' TIMEFRAME, I.E. 8AM THURSDAY TO 8AM
FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS TO CAPTURE ANY LINGERING IMPACTS AS THE LINE
EXITS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN AND PICK UP FROM THE NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FUNNEL INTO THE NW PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36HRS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER -- FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEGREE COLDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE TODAY! FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE NW AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE SE. THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
FORECAST VALUES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE THANKS TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
OVERALL UNEVENTFUL LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STARTING OFF WITH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUNNY DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PUSH, WE'LL SEE A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS AND
LOW RHS ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEXT TUESDAY LEADING TO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS
MAINLY SCT 040-060 AND SW WINDS BETWEEN 7-11 KTS. LATER TONIGHT,
OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME MVFR CLOUDS UNDERNEATH,
ARRIVING AT ATL AROUND 04-05Z. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ARRIVE AT
ATL AROUND THE SAME TIME. A TEMPO FOR TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
FROM 05-09Z AT ATL, 08-12Z FOR AHN, AND 10-13Z FOR MCN. TRAILING
LIGHT SHOWERS, ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR CLOUDS AND 4-6 SM
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL AS LONG AS
13Z AT ATL. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z AND IMPROVE
TO SKC BY 18-20Z. WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT
TO NW AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS BY SUNRISE AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KTS BY 23Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA AND CEILING TRENDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 54 61 36 64 / 80 80 0 0
ATLANTA 47 58 39 65 / 90 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 38 52 31 61 / 90 40 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 42 57 36 66 / 100 40 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 65 40 69 / 90 70 0 0
GAINESVILLE 47 57 36 63 / 90 60 0 0
MACON 58 67 38 68 / 70 80 0 0
ROME 47 61 37 70 / 100 30 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 46 58 36 66 / 90 70 0 0
VIDALIA 66 71 39 70 / 10 80 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...KING
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