683
FXUS62 KFFC 162329
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GRADUAL WARMING CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE RETURN
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SOME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS:
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM THE ISOLATED STORMS (20-25% CHANCE) TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL RISE TO SCATTERED (40-60% CHANCE). STORMS COULD ALSO BE A
LITTLE STRONGER TO EVEN NEAR SEVERE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SAME
THREATS AS TODAY (WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN).
WARMING SOME ON FRIDAY:
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS (TYPICAL FOR MID-JULY) WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE IN
ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105F. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH, WHICH
WILL TRY ITS HARDEST TO MAKE THE HEAT LESS BRUTAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY MORNING, A WEAK LOW AT
THE 500 MB LEVEL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION, CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES (AND DEWPOINTS) ON SATURDAY
STARTING OFF IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID 90S IN AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER
100 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHERN
TIER. LOCATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD FURTHERMORE EXCEED
105 WHICH WOULD WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY IN A LATER FORECAST
UPDATE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH POPS (50-60%) HIGHEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR THE
FORMATION OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING HORIZONTALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY COULD FURTHERMORE STORMS
ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD ALSO BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY DROP TOWARDS
NORTH GEORGIA WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN BOTH CASES, THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO THE
REQUISITE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THAT COME WITH
SUMMERTIME STORMS.
BY SUNDAY, THE 500 MB LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
CAUSE IT TO GET PULLED NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED A 20%
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY REMAIN
IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE, AND IF IT EVEN
DEVELOPS AT ALL. HOWEVER, A STRONGER SOUTHERN FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CORRESPOND WITH DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL IN TURN RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. POPS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME, WHILE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS RETURN TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS OUTCOME
WILL BE SENSITIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE AND ANY INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH, AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE METRO SITES AND IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT MCN THROUGH THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SCT VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT W WINDS AT 5KT
OR LESS. TOMORROW WILL SEE CU FIELD DEVELOP AGAIN ~3-4KFT BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
TIMING BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-18KT ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TOMORROW.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 74 95 74 93 / 10 50 10 40
ATLANTA 75 91 75 91 / 10 40 10 40
BLAIRSVILLE 69 86 69 85 / 10 70 10 60
CARTERSVILLE 73 91 73 91 / 10 40 10 40
COLUMBUS 75 93 75 93 / 10 30 10 60
GAINESVILLE 75 93 74 91 / 10 60 10 40
MACON 73 93 74 92 / 10 30 20 50
ROME 72 91 72 91 / 10 40 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 73 91 73 91 / 10 40 10 60
VIDALIA 75 95 74 94 / 20 30 30 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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