781
FXUS62 KFFC 040557
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
PEAKS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CURRENTLY FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES TREND MORE FALL-LIKE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT OCT 3
2026
SHOWERS GOT AN EARLY START THIS MORNING THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE 12Z SOUNDING
HERE IN PEACHTREE CITY MEASURED PWAT OF 1.91" - JUST 0.02" SHORT
OF THE RECORD FOR 12Z 10/3, THOUGH WELL SHORT OF THE MONTHLY
RECORD (OCTOBER IS STILL PART OF HURRICANE SEASON, AS WE ALL HAVE
EXPERIENCED IN THE PAST FEW YEARS). THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND GET REINFORCED INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP UNDERACHIEVING IN MANY
AREAS COMPARED TO THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS, BUT IN PLACES WHERE THE SUN DOES COME OUT IT WILL BE WARM
AND MOIST WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE
300K AND 305K ISENTROPES SHOWS SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
HAPPENING BETWEEN 900-800MB WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE VERTICAL
PROFILE FROM THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING. AS WE HEAT UP THERE IS A BIT
OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS THAT IS CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWERS, LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND THE SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WHERE UPDRAFTS CAN GET ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. OVERALL AMOUNTS
SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING OF CONCERN TODAY IN MOST PLACES, BUT AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SEE AN
INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.
LOOKING AT THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PICTURE, THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT IN CLOSE TO US PUSHES OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS IN BEHIND AS DAVA AND
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUILD IN OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY PUSHES
OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OUR FAVORITE FRIEND "THE WEDGE" (CAD)
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA, PUSHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS, SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SOME PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY TO GREAT MOST
FOLKS ACROSS NE GA AND THE METRO TOMORROW MORNING. ALONGSIDE ALL
THIS, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG TOWARDS THE AREA, DRAWING UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FROM A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A STEADY RAIN TO BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CWA AS MOISTURE IS
LIFTED OVER THE WEDGE AND A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THE VERY HIGH
PWATS MEAN THIS RAIN COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT AT TIMES. BASICALLY,
SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A WASH OUT FOR MOST EVERYONE. THE UPSIDE IS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS -
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST (AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME PLACES IN NE
GEORGIA DON'T GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S).
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
CURRENT HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (BOTH HREF AND REFS) SHOW AVERAGE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 1-3" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, POSSIBLE A BIT HIGHER
IN SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS LIKELY
REPRESENT AN UPPER BOUND OF SOME OF THE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS,
WHICH SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF 4-5". THESE AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85, WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL COINCIDE. THESE AMOUNTS DON'T QUITE WARRANT FLOOD PRODUCTS.
PLACES BELOW THE FALL LINE HAVE SANDY SOILS THAT CAN HANDLE QUITE A
BIT MORE RAIN THAN THE MORE CLAY SOILS ABOVE, AND RIVERS, CREEKS AND
STREAMS ARE AT THE TYPICAL OCTOBER MINIMUMS AT THE START OF THE
"WATER YEAR". THAT ALL SAID, HEAVY ENOUGH RAIN IN THE RIGHT PLACE
(LIKE THE URBAN JUNGLE OF ATLANTA) CAN CERTAINLY TRIGGER FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHEN AN INCH OR TWO HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AND END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-85 AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. THIS WILL
BE A SLOW PROCESS, SO RAIN SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONT STALLS.
SOME CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA, THOUGH
AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SAGS MEAN THAT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER EVEN INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT
OCT 3 2026
THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THE VERY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA WILL GET AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TOTALS RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES UNTIL
THE FRONT IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA HOWEVER, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END OVERNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO AUGUSTA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S WITH 40'S LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
GEORGIA. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CWA
DROP TO NEARLY ZERO.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT WE'LL BE GOING INTO A WEEKLY PATTERN
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE GETS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR BY 08-11Z FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIFR
CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR CIGS PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISO
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z WITH SHRA COVERAGE GRADUALLY
INCREASING THEREAFTER. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE
18Z TODAY - 06Z MONDAY, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE N TO S THEREAFER.
EMBEDDED TSRA ARE MOST PROBABLE AT MCN/CSG. WINDS WILL BE SE TO E
AT 3-6 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 78 59 74 / 70 10 0 0
ATLANTA 67 79 63 75 / 70 20 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 78 51 74 / 30 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 65 82 59 79 / 50 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 80 66 78 / 80 40 10 10
GAINESVILLE 66 79 59 74 / 40 20 0 0
MACON 67 78 62 77 / 80 40 10 10
ROME 64 82 57 81 / 40 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 80 60 77 / 80 20 0 0
VIDALIA 69 76 64 75 / 90 80 30 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...RW
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