529
FXUS62 KFFC 011053
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A
FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IR SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
OVER THE IA/MO/IL BORDER. A WARM-FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS AL AND GA. PWATS CURRENTLY SIT AROUND 1.2 TO 1.6
(25TH - 50TH PERCENTILE), WITH A SHARP INCREASING GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. AS THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, MID AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST, INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWATS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY AS THE WARM-FRONT SURGES
NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY REACHING 2.1" BY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE WARM-FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
HEATING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LATE EVENING PERIOD, HOWEVER POPS QUICKLY REBOUND WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING
WHERE THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT AS IT ENTERS GA. CAMS HAVE SHOWN
A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT, STALLING EAST OF ATL AND THE I85 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS LIKELY PARTLY DUE TO CAM COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER
LOWER RES MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER STALL. EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY AS GREATER CONVECTION RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE BAND OF
RAIN, WHILE LESSER COLD-POOL FORMATION FROM MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES SLOWING FRONTAL PROGRESS. A SLOWER FRONT WOULD MEAN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I85 ARE IN FOR SOME GOOD SOAKING RAINS EITHER WAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SLOW MOVING FRONT REMAINS FLOODING, BOTH RIVERINE
AND FLASH. RAINFALL RATES IN SOME STORMS COULD REACH OVER 2 INCHES
AN HOUR AND TRAINING MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR EITHER FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING DAYS WILL BE COOLER (RELATIVE) GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES AND INCOMING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OPENS UP MONDAY WITH THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BEGINNING TO
CUTOFF. THIS WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY BEFORE BEING REABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE,
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MARKEDLY LOWER THAN THE WIDESPREAD WEEKEND
ACTIVITY.
BY LATE WEEK, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MIDLEVEL "DIRTY" RIDGING. AS SUCH, TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIAL "COOLER" HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD 80S TO LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S INCREASINGLY
COMMONPLACE BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SCT TO ISO SHRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH AFTERNOON TO SCT TSRA. CIGS
CURRENTLY VFR WILL FALL TO MVFR THROUGH MOST OF DAY AND FURTHER
FALL TO IFR TNGT. WINDS GENERALLY SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS, THOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF SE PSBL THIS AFTN. POPS INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST GA. THIS MAY NOT
IMPACT SITES SOUTH AND EAST OF I85, INCLUDING ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TODAY/TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 86 71 86 70 / 90 70 70 30
ATLANTA 86 73 88 72 / 90 60 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 68 81 65 / 80 90 70 10
CARTERSVILLE 88 72 88 69 / 90 80 30 10
COLUMBUS 90 75 91 73 / 80 60 60 30
GAINESVILLE 82 72 85 70 / 80 80 60 10
MACON 89 72 89 72 / 90 50 90 40
ROME 88 71 87 69 / 90 80 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 86 72 88 70 / 90 60 40 10
VIDALIA 94 73 90 73 / 80 40 70 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM
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