033
FXUS62 KFFC 121039
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
DAYBREAK, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
TOMORROW, CONTINUING LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM NOON TO 8PM THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 106 ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AT THE TIME
OF WRITING OF THIS AFD, AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW -- SUPPORTED BY
LIFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT THE MID-LEVELS AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO, AND
PWATS GENERALLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH
2" AND SIMULATED MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST INVERTED-V SIGNATURES, WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT FORM. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ON MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1").
A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A HAIL REPORT. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS MOISTURE-WISE, CARE
WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO ISOLATED FLASH/NUISANCE FLOODING CONCERNS.
INTO TOMORROW, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE, AND IS
UNLIKELY TO COUNTERACT THE PROGGED COOLER TEMPERATURES/WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EVEN SO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL HEAT CONCERNS WILL REACH THEIR CONCLUSION THIS AFTERNOON,
AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT (RELATIVELY SPEAK) COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. HIGHS/MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 WILL
BE IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY, WITH THE UPPER-90S POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. AS HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO MAX OUT
BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES, A HEAT ADVISORY IS ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 8PM. TOMORROW, THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MORE EVIDENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90 (AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A STEADY RISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED OVER THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE 90S COULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY
AND ONWARD. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH THE WEEK, HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
MUCH OF GEORGIA BY THE MIDWEEK. POPS ARE STILL HIGH ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, BUT WE SHOULD SEE DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD SWITCH FROM WIDESPREAD TO
ISOLATED AS A RESULT OF INCREASING H500 HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE PD, WITH SCT-BKN CIGS
AT 3-7KFT TO LINGER INTO THE AFTN. COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL
BE HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ISO SHRA PSBL THRU 10Z. BEST
WINDOW FOR IMPACTS IN TSRA FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE 17-21Z,
WITH A SECONDARY PEAK BETWEEN 01-06Z. HEAVIEST PCPN MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS IN BR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
W/WSW AT 5-10KTS. CHCS FOR BKN IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING
SECOND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA, GENERALLY AFT 07Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND MONDAY MORNING LOW
CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 92 70 83 68 / 60 70 80 80
ATLANTA 90 72 84 70 / 80 60 80 80
BLAIRSVILLE 82 65 77 64 / 70 70 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 88 70 83 69 / 80 60 80 70
COLUMBUS 94 73 87 71 / 60 60 60 60
GAINESVILLE 88 70 81 68 / 50 60 90 80
MACON 93 71 87 70 / 70 70 70 70
ROME 87 70 83 68 / 60 50 80 70
PEACHTREE CITY 91 70 85 68 / 70 60 70 70
VIDALIA 97 73 91 72 / 40 70 70 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ074-084>086-097-098-111>113.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....RANGEL
AVIATION...96
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