114
FXUS62 KFFC 200644
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
FOR TODAY:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, THOUGH A COUPLE OF
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL (PEAS TO DIMES) OR GUSTY WINDS
(NEAR 40 MPH) IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS MORNING.
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
FOR ATLANTA, ATHENS, MACON AND COLUMBUS ARE ALL WITHIN 2 TO 3
DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF ONE OR TWO
SITES OVER PREFORMED THE FORECAST AND TIED OR BROKE A RECORD THIS
AFTERNOON. PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE KEY IF THIS
IS TO HAPPEN.
TONIGHT & SATURDAY:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL STORM
THREAT WILL OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTHERN GEORGIA. MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (NEAR 6.5 C/KM) MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IF THE WARM LAYER PROJECTED TO OVERRIDE THE FRONT WAS A
COUPLE OF DEGREE WARMER. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE CAM SOUNDINGS KEEP
MUCAPE PROFILES NARROW, SOMETHING THAT WOULD HINDER UPDRAFT
INTENSITY. THUS IF HAIL OCCURS, DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL APPEARS MOST
LIKELY WITH ONLY ISOLATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM AND SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR OR OVER 1000 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
TOSS IN AMPLE SHEAR THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SUPERCELL COMPOSITE INDEX
INTO THE 1 TO 4 RANGE, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF ANY STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, THEN A BRIEF
SPIN UP TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY THREAT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF MACON. A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO OVERRUN THE FRONT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON AFTER SUNSET. WITH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DIMINISHING IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING SUNSET, CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO STEADILY DIMINISH AND COME TO
AND END AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, IT WILL PUSH THE DEVELOPING LOW THROUGH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, BRIEFLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO NORTH GEORGIA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA, AT WHICH POINT
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.5 INCH, THOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AT WHICH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT GEORGIA.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH AND
MORE SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN PLACE FOR LONGER OVER PORTIONS OF EAST GEORGIA
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES AT THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 30S ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY THE TIME MORNING LOWS ARE REACHED,
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHORT-LIVED.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD (WHILE THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC). STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MORNING WILL LARGELY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S,
THOUGH COULD BE AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE WIND CHILLS
TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THE RIDGETOPS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 14-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY, STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ONLY RISING INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (AND TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS). AFTER THIS POINT, THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST, AND A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH THROUGH MID-WEEK, RISING MAINLY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE TEENS ON TUESDAY, RH VALUES ARE ALREADY FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
25% ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR CEILINGS (1000-3000 FT AGL) WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA BETWEEN 08Z AND 22Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 12 KT
RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILINGS AND TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE VISIBILITY, THOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
BELOW 6 SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAINFALL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND OUTLOOK.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 55 67 44 / 60 60 80 40
ATLANTA 74 56 67 41 / 60 70 80 40
BLAIRSVILLE 68 46 64 33 / 30 50 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 51 68 39 / 30 70 50 30
COLUMBUS 77 63 76 44 / 70 60 90 50
GAINESVILLE 73 52 67 41 / 60 60 60 30
MACON 78 62 75 45 / 70 70 90 60
ROME 77 53 72 40 / 20 70 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 76 57 70 41 / 60 70 80 40
VIDALIA 82 65 80 51 / 60 50 90 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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