974
FXUS62 KFFC 181126
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND THE ATL
METRO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 5" OR MORE ARE EXPECTED.
- SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THURSDAY TO 8AM FRIDAY.
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TREE
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
QUITE A BIT TO TALK ABOUT ACROSS THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. ARTHUR
IS OFFICIALLY POST-TROPICAL AS OF LAST NIGHT HAVING ONLY BRIEFLY
FORMED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
REMNANT LOW IS SWIRLING OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND LA AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG STORMS ONGOING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS HEADED TO THE NE AND EXPECTED TO
PICK UP STEAM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PUSHING TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
NUMEROUS HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, RIVER FLOODING, AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TROPICAL TORNADOES. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING SOME DECENT NON-
TROPICAL WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF THE CORE OF THE STORM UNDERGOES
SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE (MORE
ON THAT BELOW). HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME INTO FRIDAY
ALONG A BOUNDARY SET UP BY THE PASSING STORM WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT SETS UP.
AS THE REMNANT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE CWA, MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY
BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION FOR EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA, FOR BETTER OR WORSE. CAMS HAVE KEYED IN ON THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NE ACROSS MS AND AL,
EVENTUALLY COMING INTO NORTHERN GA BY THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SOME DAY TIME HEATING EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
- THESE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT. A LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATER IN THE
EVENING THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW
MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA, BRINGING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS THAT ARE MIXED DOWN FROM A DEVELOPING 850 MB JET.
HEAVY RAIN STICKS AROUND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR MANY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY PROVIDE CONTINUED FOCUS
FOR STORMS IN THAT AREA WELL INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS BOUNDARY VARIES QUITE A BIT BY MODEL.
MOVING ON TO DISCUSSION OF THE INDIVIDUAL THREATS, LET'S START WITH
RAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL OCCUR. MODEL QPF EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A PRETTY
WIDE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA, WITH VARIOUS CAMS TARGETING DIFFERENT
AREAS WITH UPWARDS OF 4-5" OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
MOST AREAS SEE AT LEAST 2" OF RAIN - EVEN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
HIGHLIGHT THAT ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITHOUT REALLY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION. NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE PAINTS 4-5" AND HAS SOME CONCERNING AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7".
OF CONCERN IS THE FACT THAT CAMS ARE NOT LIKELY OUTPUTTING ENOUGH
RAIN WITHIN STORMS. WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO VERY EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION RATES THAT MAY EXCEED 1-2" AN HOUR. FOR AREAS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS OR CONSISTENT, HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE VERY LIKELY. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY EXPANDED EAST, AND REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT THREAT TO DISCUSS IS SEVERE. AS WITH ANY POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM, BEING WITHIN THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE STORMS MOTION
USUALLY CREATES A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MINI-
SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE NO DIFFERENT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
CAMS OUTPUTTING NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. SRH VALUES AREN'T THROUGH
THE ROOF, BUT AREN'T ANYTHING TO DISMISS, WITH CAMS SHOWING AROUND
100 M2/S2. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS WELL AT 1500-2000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATION IN UPDRAFTS, AND THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO. A STRENGTHENING 850MB
JET INTO THE EVENING MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF ALLOWING STORMS TO
MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE, AND SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT IS THE NON-TSTORM WIND THREAT. THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB JET
MOVES IN ALONGSIDE THE MAIN CORE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE LATE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS AND
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES IN PLACE, IT IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH IF ANY
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SET UP, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. 850MB JET IS
FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KTS, AND CAMS ARE SHOWING 30 TO UPWARDS OF 50
MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL,
TREES IN CERTAIN SOILS MAY BE IN A WEAKENED STATE THAT ALLOWS THEM
TO MORE EASILY TOPPLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS
THREAT AND MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE QPF DISCUSSION, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON LINGERING RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
PREFERS A SOLUTION WHICH LEAVES US A BIT TOO "WORKED OVER" FOR
CONTINUED RAIN ON FRIDAY IN ALL BUT CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE WHAT IS
LIKELY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORTH GEORGIA
AND MUCH OF THE METRO COULD BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE A BIT EARLIER. BUT, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY, AND SOME CAMS DO TRY TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS AGAIN AT
LEAST IN THE METRO, WHICH IS WHY SOME POPS ARE RETAINED THERE.
FRIDAY IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE THURSDAY, SO MOST OF
THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY, LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, MID 80S TO NEAR 90, THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS METRO TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE, EXPECTING MOST SITES TO REMAIN
MVFR INTO AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN COVERAGE AND REMAIN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GUSTS COULD BE VERY IMPACTFUL
STARTING ~00Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AS
RAINFALL COMES TO AN END.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS. HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 87 69 87 66 / 90 100 20 0
ATLANTA 84 71 85 68 / 90 90 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 80 65 81 58 / 90 90 30 0
CARTERSVILLE 85 70 85 64 / 100 90 40 0
COLUMBUS 84 72 85 71 / 90 90 70 30
GAINESVILLE 85 69 85 65 / 90 90 20 0
MACON 86 70 85 69 / 90 100 70 20
ROME 84 70 86 64 / 100 80 30 0
PEACHTREE CITY 83 70 84 67 / 90 100 50 10
VIDALIA 91 73 86 72 / 70 80 80 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....WARE
AVIATION...LUSK
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