105
FXUS62 KFFC 091036
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST
LATER ON TODAY, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE ON FRIDAY.
- ISAIAS WILL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A LONG DURATION OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND TORNADOES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT TODAY BEFORE
HURRICANE ISAIS BEGINS TO IMPACT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE GULF COAST AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO THE
TN VALLEY. NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
STRONG WINDS: AS ISAIAS MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, ITS
WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND CONSIDERABLY, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING
WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM INTO WEST-CENTRAL GA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA WHERE WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH/EAST, WHILE ISAIAS WILL
BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING POST-TROPICAL, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THE PROLONGED AND STRONG WINDS
COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED LIMBS AND TREES,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.
HEAVY RAINFALL: AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA, IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND MULTIPLE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGH RAINFALL RATES (PWAT
VALUES OF 2-2.3") AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR-DRAINGE
AREAS, AS WELL AS FLOOD-PRONE CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TORNADOES: AS ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHWARD AND INLAND ON SATURDAY, A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, INCLUDING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
TYPICALLY QUICK TO DEVELOP AND SHORT-LIVED, BUT WITH THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNIQUE SETUP, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRONGER (EF2 OR EF3), LONG-TRACK TORNADO. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT
EVERYONE HAS A WAY TO RECEIVE TORNADO WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS: ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHAT REMAINS
OF ISAIAS, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
PROMOTING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS: ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHAT REMAINS
OF ISAIAS, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
PROMOTING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP TO NEAR
ZERO FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
OVC VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH EAST WINDS AT 5-
10KTS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 15KTS. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER 00Z AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH HEAVY WIND DRIVEN RAIN THAT
WILL DECREASE VIS TO MVFR/IFR WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND TIMING AND MAX SPEED
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 60 70 65 / 0 90 100 90
ATLANTA 75 61 72 65 / 20 90 90 70
BLAIRSVILLE 74 54 65 58 / 0 90 90 100
CARTERSVILLE 78 59 72 63 / 10 90 90 80
COLUMBUS 75 63 79 64 / 50 100 90 40
GAINESVILLE 74 60 67 64 / 0 90 90 100
MACON 75 63 77 66 / 30 90 100 70
ROME 79 56 72 60 / 10 90 90 90
PEACHTREE CITY 75 59 73 63 / 20 90 100 60
VIDALIA 76 68 81 71 / 30 90 90 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>048-053>057.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GAZ052-066>069-078>080-089>093-102>104.
SHORT TERM...VAUGHN
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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