157
FXUS62 KFFC 231041
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, BRINGING
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY BRINGING A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED TO THE
WEST OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND EAST OF TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
US, LEADING TO THE ONGOING REGIME OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70 AND PWATS ~1.5-2".
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING IS A WEAK CAD WEDGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH/NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH OVERRUNNING PRODUCING SOME
ONGOING SHOWERS. THIS WEDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN RELEGATED TO
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY RETREATS.
WHILE EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN IN THIS MESSY ENVIRONMENT, ANOTHER MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR MAXIMIZED COVERAGE ALONGSIDE ENHANCED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY, THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AGAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO THE ONGOING RISK FOR
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SUNDAY BRINGS A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THREATS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
REMAIN THE SAME. OBVIOUSLY, GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ANY
ASSOCIATED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, WEATHER AWARENESS WILL BE KEY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
YET AGAIN, THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FULL LONG
TERM OUTLOOK. NEAR PERPETUAL SW TO E FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. IF ANYTHING CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ENTER MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SEES AN EXPRESSIVE UNDULATION INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OF THE BLOCK WILL BE CENTERED (AND
LIKELY STALLED) OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, A DECIDEDLY ODD PLACE
FOR THIS. RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BE IN AROUND
THE 10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90S WITH MODERATION FROM
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. NO
WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ENHANCEMENT MAY
BE DERIVED FROM STRONGER SURFACE LEVEL E FLOW WHICH COULD BUILD A
WEAK WEDGE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WEDGE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AS
THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN DESCENDS THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY WEDGE THAT MAY
DEVELOP IS UNCERTAIN, SO JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE FUTURE.
TOTAL QPF WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND WELCOMED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAN
TOTAL PRECIP SITS OVER 5 INCHES OF SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST GA. THIS
HOWEVER HAS A CAVEAT. DUE TO THE SPOTTY COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, SOME
AREA ARE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE/LESS THAN THIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES, ATTENTION WILL BE NEEDED ON THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY AS SOILS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
14-16Z. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 18Z, THOUGH
OVERNIGHT DETERIORATION BACK TO IFR TO LIFR IS LIKELY AFTER
02-05Z. SCT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED 18-00Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN SE TO SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF SSW IS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES 18-00Z AT SPEEDS 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 80 64 83 64 / 90 70 60 70
ATLANTA 80 65 83 67 / 80 50 60 70
BLAIRSVILLE 74 60 79 61 / 90 60 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 63 84 65 / 90 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 83 66 87 67 / 90 50 60 70
GAINESVILLE 77 65 81 66 / 90 70 50 70
MACON 84 65 86 66 / 80 70 70 80
ROME 80 62 83 64 / 80 60 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 81 64 84 65 / 80 40 60 70
VIDALIA 89 68 88 69 / 80 70 70 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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