755  
FXUS62 KFFC 020702  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
302 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
-THE MOVING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL GA TODAY.  
 
-ISOLATED STORM CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF MACON THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
 
-WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THOUGH LESS MUGGY OVER NORTH GA  
 
A DREARY START FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY -- CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BLANKET  
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING  
ARRIVING IN CENTRAL GA BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS, SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EAST AND  
CENTRAL GA (AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY) WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS MORE  
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON -- THE  
LATTER POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCALES AS FAR NORTH AS THE ATL  
METRO GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH THIS  
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT MAKES IT BY THE TIME THE  
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. THINKING SOME SPRINKLES OR A STRAY SHOWER  
ARE MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH THIS MORNING RATHER THAN LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR THE FRONT  
MAKES IT TODAY, THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH- CENTRAL GA-- NAMELY AREAS SOUTH OF MACON ON  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND  
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRIER  
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S -- PERHAPS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE RELIEF FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS  
ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS MUGGY ACROSS NORTH GA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO  
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY. TOMORROW (THURSDAY)  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (80S  
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS).  
 
07  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- LOW RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS THE UPPER  
90S.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.  
 
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS AS  
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE  
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW IT TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY FURTHER THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN  
GULF. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN ALL BUT EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA  
ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE SLIDES OVER  
THE APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE,  
WARMER AIR BUILDING IN AT THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL STILL BE  
LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF A  
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO. CONSIDERING THE  
BUILDING RIDGE AND LOWER CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE LIMITED RAIN  
CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
WITH 80S REMAINING IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.  
 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PARTS OF  
NEXT WEEK, WITH DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON HOW IT HANDLES THE  
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROPICAL UPPER  
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE LOW RETROGRADING WESTWARD ALONG  
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RIDGE COULD  
BREAK DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE LOW BEING NORTHWARD INTO  
GEORGIA. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE  
AGAIN ON SUNDAY (20-30 PERCENT) AND MONDAY (30-40 PERCENT) TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LATTER SCENARIO, THOUGH  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE  
GUIDANCE. ALSO, AS THE WEAKENING FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
GULF THIS WEEKEND, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP  
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY  
OR SUNDAY, WHICH COULD THEN TAP INTO THE WARM SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES, INTENSIFY, AND GAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE  
NHC HAS IDENTIFIED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT  
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN AN AREA INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF,  
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, THOUGH THERE  
REMAINS LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND  
EVOLUTION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW FOR  
MORE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASE POPS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE  
SYSTEM IN THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE  
MONITORED.  
 
KING  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. IFR  
CIGS AND PATCHY FOG STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT MOST SITES  
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE, FEW TO SCT CU AND HIGH  
CIRRUS WILL PERSIST, FOLLOWED BY HIGH CIRRUS AND SKC ONCE THE  
FROPA OCCURS AT EACH SITE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW  
FOLLOWING FROPA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT KATL/KAHN THOUGH  
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AT CSG/MCN THOUGH  
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR FRONT PROGRESSES.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF IFR CIGS  
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS  
 
07  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
ATHENS 88 70 91 71 / 30 10 10 0  
ATLANTA 90 71 92 73 / 10 0 10 0  
BLAIRSVILLE 85 61 86 64 / 10 0 10 0  
CARTERSVILLE 90 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 90 71 93 73 / 40 10 10 0  
GAINESVILLE 89 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 0  
MACON 88 71 92 72 / 50 20 20 0  
ROME 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0  
PEACHTREE CITY 90 68 92 70 / 20 0 10 0  
VIDALIA 89 72 91 73 / 80 40 50 10  
 
 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...07  
LONG TERM....KING  
AVIATION...07  
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