025
FXUS62 KFFC 191828
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S
TO MID 100S TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA DESPITE SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SHOULD TOP OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE HUMIDITY IS STILL AROUND AS WELL,
WHICH MEANS HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. BEYOND THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, EXPECTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40% CHANCES) AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN ACTUALLY SEEING STORMS TODAY - 12Z SOUNDING COMPARISON
SHOWS THE FULL PROFILE HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN IT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, SO UPDRAFTS MAY EXPERIENCE LESS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ISSUES. FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.
SHEAR REMAINS VERY LIGHT AS WE SIT BETWEEN THE FADING RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STILL, A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS THANKS TO DCAPE VALUES THAT ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG. RAIN LADEN AIR PARCELS FROM
STRONGER STORMS CRASHING DOWNWARD MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE
WEST INTO THE GULF TOMORROW. THE CWA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN VARIOUS
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, BUT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY
BUILD IN ALOFT TOMORROW SHOWING AS AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THIS MAY ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY,
AND, OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, CHANCES OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW ARE LOWER (10-20% IN MOST AREAS). A SIMILAR RISK OF A
SEVERE WIND GUST WILL EXIST OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY REMAINS ELEVATED WITH MOIST
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE, SO HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS, PLACING GEORGIA WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW STARTING ON TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN CAN SUPPORT MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
THAT DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. IF AND
WHERE MCSS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK (AS WELL AS WHERE RESULTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STALL AND SPARK CONVECTION THE FOLLOWING DAY)
GENERALLY HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT, SO
POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BEAR WATCHING. FWIW, THE AI-NWP-BASED FORECASTS AND GEFS
MACHINE LEARNING FORECASTS FROM NCAR SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL RISKS
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY,
WHICH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A COLD AIR DAMMING ("WEDGE") SETUP ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN OUR FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES (70S TO 80S) AND
LOW TEMPERATURES (MID-50S TO MID-60S). WHILE STILL SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
DURING THIS TIME, AS THE DRIER WEDGE AIRMASS AND NORTHERLY LOW-/MID-
LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. STILL, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IT MAY NOT BE TRUE
AUTUMNAL WEATHER, BUT GIVEN THAT THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
IS TUESDAY, I WILL TAKE IT A SLIGHT COOLDOWN!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE TSRA CHANCES ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST SIDE IN METRO INCLUDING KATL BUT LIGHT AT
3-7 KTS. SOME IMPACTS FROM IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT METRO SITES, AHN,
AND MCN DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THESE, TEMPO WITH BKN IFR MAY BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM OVERNIGHT CIGS, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 90 69 92 / 50 20 10 20
ATLANTA 72 91 72 92 / 50 20 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 64 86 64 86 / 20 60 20 60
CARTERSVILLE 70 93 70 94 / 20 20 10 30
COLUMBUS 72 93 72 94 / 30 20 20 20
GAINESVILLE 70 89 70 91 / 40 30 20 40
MACON 71 92 71 93 / 40 20 20 10
ROME 69 94 69 94 / 10 20 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 70 92 70 93 / 50 20 10 20
VIDALIA 72 91 72 92 / 30 20 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...LUSK
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