703  
FXUS62 KFFC 271950  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
350 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
...AFTERNOON AFD: WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TOMORROW FOR NORTH  
GEORGIA...  
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WHILE IT LASTS, AS TODAY MIGHT BE  
THE LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN CWA  
WITHOUT CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE  
MADE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS. THAT ALL CHANGES TONIGHT AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM  
APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENTLY, SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED  
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA ALL THE  
WAY FROM THE GULF INTO FORMING SURFACE CYCLONE AROUND EASTERN OK.  
STRONG MCS IS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE  
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES NEAR THE GULF. THIS  
SYSTEM IS SET TO GET A BOOST OF LIFE FROM A POSITIVE PV ANOMALY  
ALONG THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE THAT WILL BE DIVING INTO THE TROUGH  
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A RAPID BOOST TO CYCLOGENESIS AS THE  
TROPOPAUSE PV GRADIENT TIGHTENS, CREATES A JET STREAK, AND ALLOWS  
THE CURRENT SFC CYCLONE TO CONTINUE DEEPENING THROUGH MASS  
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG THE LEFT EXIT REGION.  
 
THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED SURGE IN THE ONGOING MOISTURE PLUME  
TOWARDS THE CWA. TIMING HAS SLOWED A LITTLE WITH THE CONVECTIVE  
GUIDANCE, SO THE BULK LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING TO EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE CWA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL  
IS STILL LOW. PREVIOUS FRONT HAS SCOURED MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND  
LEFT A MOSTLY COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE DESPITE SOME AIRMASS  
MODIFICATION TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE  
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW MORNING AND FLOW AROUND IT IS  
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A WEAK WEDGE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.  
FINALLY, WHILE SOME OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE (THE NAM NEST, FOR  
INSTANCE) SHOWS SOME MUCAPE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SMALL  
THANKS TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH QUICKLY  
CUTS OFF, AND ANY CAPE IS ELEVATED ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION  
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GA. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A  
MARGINAL RISK OVER JUST FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GA AS A RESULT, WITH  
GENERAL THUNDER EVERYWHERE ELSE. WON'T RULE OUT SEVERAL RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER AND HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE  
GRIDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE INITIAL SURGE.  
 
SOME WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL LINE IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, SO  
AREAS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE AN AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO BEFORE  
THE MAIN SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. THE HRRR, HIRESFV3,  
AND ONE OR TWO OTHER HI-RES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ISOLATED  
STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING IN THIS AREA. THE OTHER  
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NORTH GA, WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE WRAPPING  
AROUND THE QUICKLY STACKING UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LOWS MAY BE ABLE  
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER  
OR TWO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE CLEARING HAPPENS DOWN IN CENTRAL GA,  
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PROVIDED WINDS COME DOWN  
ENOUGH.  
 
THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE WIND ADVISORY. STRONG LOW-  
LEVEL JET WILL BE NOTED WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE ALONG THE WARM  
CONVEYER BELT, AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW 30 KT WINDS DOWN TO EVEN 950  
MB, WELL INTO THE INVERSION. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THIS MEANS WE WILL  
LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN EASILY OVER THE TERRAIN,  
ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH (AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME  
TO SEE SOMETHING ISOLATED A LITTLE HIGHER). FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH,  
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THEY CAN MIX DOWN, AND  
RAINFALL WILL MAKE THAT EASIER. HOWEVER, STILL NOT EXPECTING TO MEET  
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 35 MPH ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA TAKING INTO  
CONSIDERATION FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, SO HAVE LEFT ADVISORY ALONE. WILL  
LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE, AND WILL NOT RULE OUT  
EXPANSION STILL. THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, STRONG WINDS MAY STILL  
BE POSSIBLE AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN ALOFT, HENCE WHY WIND ADVISORY  
CARRIES THROUGH THE EVENING.  
 
LUSK  
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
COOL, RAW START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LARGE/DEEP  
UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW STARTS LIFTING  
NORTHEAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING TO  
NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. FLOW DOES BEGIN TURNING SOMEWHAT  
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS  
AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN. LARGELY A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW.  
WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE, AND MAY SEE PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES CREEPING BACK IN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AT  
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
TEMPERATURES START OUT NOTICEABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, ESPECIALLY  
HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
20  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z UPDATE...  
VFR EXPECTED UNTIL THURS MORNING CLOSE TO 12Z. EXPECT A FALL TO  
MVFR W/ A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHRA AND SOME POTENTIAL TSRA MOVE THROUGH  
THE METRO. WINDS NOW ARE VRB AROUND THE AIRPORT, BUT SHOULD MOVE  
TO SE BY WED EVENING, PICKING UP FROM 5-8 KTS THIS EVENING TO  
10-15 KTS BY THURSDAY MORNING, W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO BOUNCE BACK TO MVFR CIGS BY THURSDAY  
EVENING.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CIGS/PRECIP, HIGH ALL OTHERS.  
 
LUSK  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 49 62 51 60 / 40 100 70 50  
ATLANTA 52 64 52 58 / 60 100 50 60  
BLAIRSVILLE 46 55 47 54 / 40 100 90 80  
CARTERSVILLE 52 61 50 58 / 60 90 70 80  
COLUMBUS 57 74 53 60 / 80 90 20 30  
GAINESVILLE 49 58 51 57 / 50 100 80 70  
MACON 54 71 53 63 / 60 100 30 30  
ROME 53 63 52 59 / 70 90 80 80  
PEACHTREE CITY 52 68 50 58 / 70 80 40 50  
VIDALIA 54 72 57 67 / 30 80 40 20  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...  
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...  
POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LUSK  
LONG TERM....20  
AVIATION...LUSK  
 
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