975
FXUS62 KFFC 191036
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON FUTURE DAYS, NO ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TODAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
STARTING THE MORNING OFF BY WATCHING FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, NOT MUCH GOING ON OUTSIDE OF SOME
PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST THAT FELL APART. TODAY
WILL SEE SOME OF DRIEST AIR IN QUITE SOME TIME WORK INTO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30+ DEGREES WILL MEAN THE HUMIDITY FEELS A
BIT LOWER AND HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. HONESTLY, WE'LL TAKE IT IN MID-AUGUST.
OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NOT
EXPECTING RAIN OR STORMS. WON'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED
STORM CREEPING INTO FAR WEST OR CENTRAL GEORGIA, BUT MOST ALL SHOULD
BE CLEAR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SOME MORE INTERESTING WEATHER MAY BE
HAPPENING NEARBY THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WEST WHILE A BIG
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITHIN THAT
UPPER LEVEL LOW, A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET THAT IS MORE CONNECTED TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST, IMPULSE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THAT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CAMS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW STORMS FIRING ALONG THAT FRONT THAT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME CAMS MAKE IT INTO NORTH GEORGIA WITH THE STORMS
BY THURSDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON, OTHERS HAVE THEM FADE BEFORE THE
STATE LINE GIVEN WE WILL STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS STORM COVERAGE HOLDING TOGETHER GIVEN MODEL
BIASES, SO DO HAVE SOME POPS THAT ARE STARTING TO BE CARRIED FOR
THURSDAY IN NORTH GEORGIA EARLIER IN THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS FRONT PUSHES
DOWN TOWARDS US. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND EVEN SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S, WE MAY
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE STARTING TO RETURN TO BRING HEAT INDICES BACK
TO ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LONG
TERM SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THE
WORST OF THE HEAT. AT LEAST FOR NOW. SEE BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE POISED TO ENTER A REGIME OF PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS, SUPPORTED BY STAGNATING
RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL BE SITUATED AT THE BASE OF BROADER TROUGHING -- THE
COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL 1) SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
2) BOLSTER WHAT ARE NORMALLY NEAR-NEGLIGIBLE SUMMERTIME KINEMATICS.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING QUASI-ORGANIZED MCS'
DURING ITS DURATION, AND ML GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HIT ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. OPPRESSIVE HEAT LENDS
ITSELF TO AMPLE INSTABILITY, SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY AS WE ENTER THE PURVIEW OF HIRES
GUIDANCE).
IN ADDITION TO NEAR DAILY STORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY WELL OVER 100 DEGREES, AND
SUBSEQUENT HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM HUMIDITY, WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S (DESPITE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
90S), AND DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MORNING HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW
AFTERNOON CU. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW AT 7-12 KTS, GOING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 95 72 98 72 / 0 0 10 30
ATLANTA 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 88 68 88 67 / 0 0 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 20 30
COLUMBUS 96 74 98 75 / 0 0 20 20
GAINESVILLE 94 73 96 73 / 0 0 20 30
MACON 96 73 99 74 / 0 0 10 10
ROME 95 71 95 72 / 0 0 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 95 72 97 72 / 0 0 30 30
VIDALIA 99 74 101 76 / 0 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...LUSK
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