444
FXUS62 KFFC 160818
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY THU/FRI. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS GEORGIA
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL LOW SITTING
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BRINGING HIGH PWAT, TROPICAL AIR FOR THE SYSTEM
TO TAP INTO. RADAR IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN A BIT WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING MOST ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE VERY NORTHERN BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTEND, SO THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU ARE,
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME DECENT RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO RELATIVELY COOL (FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ALLOW FOR SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND EVEN STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO FORM GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY
DESPITE SOME MOST LINEAR SHEAR IN PLACE.
CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY STEADY IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASS TO OUR EAST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FROM SOME
EASING OF THE RAIN OF THE AREA AS AVA MAKES THE UPPER LEVELS LESS
SUPPORTIVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 - BASICALLY, EXPECT
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL SHUNT THE HIGHER PWAT AIR TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THIS MEANS THAT
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH
DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER SHOULD EVEN CLEAR IN
NORTH GEORGIA AND THE METRO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.
WHAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM GETS A KICK INTO THE GULF
THANKS TO A PRETTY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL SERIES OF EVENTS THAT LEAVES
A VERY STRETCHED PV STREAMER JUST TO ITS NORTH. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS
ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST - BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THAT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF COAST. MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PUSHING OVER 2 INCHES, HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER MAY ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA. EXPECT DETAILS TO BECOME CLEARER AS WE DRAW CLOSER SO
PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST, THOUGH AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE AREA. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE METRO
TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONGSIDE INCREASING RA
CHANCES. SHRA AND PERIODS OF RA IS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WITH SOME
EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE THAT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY,
BECOMING MORE SPORADIC AFTER 00Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY
EVENING WITH LIFR POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 77 65 86 72 / 60 50 20 10
ATLANTA 74 67 85 73 / 80 60 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 75 59 81 67 / 10 20 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 77 65 86 73 / 60 40 30 20
COLUMBUS 75 69 86 73 / 100 70 70 20
GAINESVILLE 75 65 85 72 / 40 40 20 20
MACON 76 67 85 72 / 100 70 60 10
ROME 78 65 86 73 / 40 30 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 74 66 85 72 / 100 60 40 20
VIDALIA 80 70 86 74 / 80 70 70 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM...WARE
AVIATION...LUSK
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