937
FXUS62 KFFC 140657
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ONE MORE DRY AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE RAPID CHANGES RETURN ON
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE TODAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY WILL BE
THE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUN.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING STRONG STORM SYSTEM. WITHIN
THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AMID DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF SAID WARM FRONT. WHILE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS, A
NONZERO/CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COMES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY OVER ~500-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE, FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE LARGER
ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY
TIMEFRAME DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING BY EARLY MONDAY. THE PREVIOUS
LONG-TERM DISCUSSION DETAILING THIS THREAT FOLLOWS.
ALL EYES WILL BE TO OUR WEST AS A DEEPENING NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING WITH IT A
STRONG COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT 500MBS AND AN
INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ANOTHER QLCS TYPE EVENT APPEARS
PROBABLE. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS FAR NW GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER (NAMELY GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES) TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR
500MB REVEALS GENERALLY 3 DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...
1- A SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNING MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
MONDAY THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING.
THIS ACCOUNTS FOR ROUGHLY 45% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
2- A QUICKER MOVING AND BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH EARLIER AND ALLOW
LESS TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS SOLUTION, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE MORE LIMITED. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR 42% OF
THE ENSEMBLES.
3- A QUICKER MOVING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT BUT MAKING FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS (WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS) AS IT EXITS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR
ROUGHLY 15% OF THE ENSEMBLES.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WE ARE TAKING ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO ACCOUNT. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
PURVIEW OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WE WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE
ON THINGS. STAY TUNED...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
NW WINDS WILL BEGIN USHERING IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
20S (5-10 DEG COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS) FOR BOTH NIGHTS. GIVEN THE
RECENT PERIOD OF WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THIS DRASTIC
CHANGE, WHICH COULD BE SOME 20-30 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, WILL BE A THREAT TO CROPS AND VEGETATION.
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TUESDAY IS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND OUR FORECAST
AREA IS SITUATED ROUGHLY AT THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING
WARMER EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, TRENDING
TO SSE BY 18-20Z WITH SPEEDS 4-7 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 76 51 72 50 / 0 10 50 80
ATLANTA 76 54 74 44 / 0 10 30 90
BLAIRSVILLE 72 46 65 41 / 0 0 30 90
CARTERSVILLE 76 53 73 40 / 0 0 20 90
COLUMBUS 79 56 79 47 / 0 10 20 80
GAINESVILLE 75 51 68 47 / 0 0 40 90
MACON 78 54 80 55 / 0 10 50 60
ROME 79 55 77 44 / 0 0 10 90
PEACHTREE CITY 77 53 76 43 / 0 10 30 90
VIDALIA 81 56 83 63 / 0 10 60 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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