795
FXUS62 KFFC 111027
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.
- A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50-60 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 1".
- HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 95-108 THROUGH SATURDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM
12 PM TO 8 PM TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
OVERVIEW:
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE COMBINATION
OF WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AT THE
SURFACE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO, AND PWATS GENERALLY EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
BOLSTER COVERAGE (AND PERHAPS INTENSITY) BEYOND THAT OF A TYPICAL
SUMMER DAY.
TODAY'S STORM CHANCES:
A BROADER, NEGATIVELY-TITLED TROUGH
SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE THAT BOOST
TODAY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHEST (60-80% CHANCES) ACROSS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA, THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2" AND SIMULATED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES INDICATIVE OF DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
(CORRESPONDING TO DCAPE OF 800 J/KG OR HIGHER), WATER-LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW, AND AN ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUMS MOISTURE-WISE, CARE WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN TO MONITOR FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH/NUISANCE FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TOMORROW'S STORM CHANCES:
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO EXCEED THAT OF TODAY'S DUE TO AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. BLANKET 70-80% POPS ARE
ON THE DOCKET TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE
KINEMATICS REMAINING UNIMPRESSIVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, THE
STRONGEST UPWARD PULSES ON SUNDAY MAY SURPASS WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ON MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL (UP
TO 1"). A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A HAIL REPORT.
HEAT:
MARGINAL HEAT CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GRADUALLY HELPING TO TAMP DOWN ON
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGHS/MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
85 WILL BE IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH THE
UPPER-90S TO LOWER-100S POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES LOOK TO MAX OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES TODAY, A
HEAT ADVISORY IS ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 8PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE
TN VALLEY, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8-2" AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
REPEATED DAYS OF WET WEATHER COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
WARMER WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK:
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE MODERATE AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL
LOW KICKING OFF TO THE WEST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING BY
MID-WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE, WE COULD EXPECT A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD, WITH PRIMARILY SCT-BKN
CIGS AT 3-7KFT DURING THE AFTN. TSRA PSBL FROM 18-01Z FOR
NORTHERN TAF SITES, WITH LOW-END CHC FOR PROBS TO CONTINUE AS LATE
AS 02-03Z. HEAVIEST PCPN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS IN BR.
OUTSIDE OF TSRA, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W SIDE AT 6-12KTS,
WITH OCNL LOW-END GUSTS TO 15-18KTS PSBL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 73 92 70 / 40 20 70 80
ATLANTA 93 75 90 72 / 50 30 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 84 66 82 64 / 60 40 80 80
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 88 70 / 50 50 80 70
COLUMBUS 95 76 93 73 / 20 10 60 70
GAINESVILLE 91 73 89 70 / 40 30 70 70
MACON 94 75 93 72 / 20 10 60 70
ROME 92 72 87 70 / 50 70 80 70
PEACHTREE CITY 92 73 90 70 / 40 20 80 70
VIDALIA 99 77 98 73 / 10 10 40 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ085-086-097-098-111>113.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...96
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