422
FXUS62 KFFC 051817
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL SPIN OFF THE COAST. THE EFFECT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE TO KEEP STORMS CHANCES NEAR ZERO
IN MOST ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, 70S
TO 80S DEPENDING ON ELEVATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST:
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET FOR MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA, DESPITE THE FORMATION OF NEWLY DESIGNATED TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
ACTUALLY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HELPING KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY SLOT AROUND THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT SHOULD BE FAR EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE OF THE DRY SLOT THAT
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, NO BIG WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS TODAY OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.
TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT IN THE MID 90S (OUTSIDE OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHERE POTENTIAL STORMS AND CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP
THINGS A BIT COOLER). HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AS A RESULT.
LUSK
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASINGLY WARM AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY MID WEEK.
- DIURNAL POPS RETURN WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
UPLIFT FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY NAMED CHANTAL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST CWA TO START THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. NBM PROBS INDICATED
GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY THAT SFCCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW
1500 J/KG (RATHER MODEST FOR SUMMER TIME CONVECTION).
TEMPERATURES PEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND EVEN
UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY OPPRESSIVE,
REACHING NEAR 70F DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEK, THE BERMUDA HIGH TRENDS WEAKER AS A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE, THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. PWATS REMAIN A JUICY 1.5" TO
2.25" (GRADIENT GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH). MODELS HAVE DECREASES
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH INCREASED CONVECTION,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY HOT GIVEN HUMIDITY (SEE END
OF DISCUSSION FOR HEAT AND TEMPERATURES). SIMILAR TO MOST SUMMERTIME
PATTERNS, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY MEAN STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR EVEN SIT OVER
THE SAME LOCATION FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HOT AND OPPRESSIVE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS
WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MID 90S, HOWEVER INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL MEAN HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THOSE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-
110 RANGE (ONLY DECREASING TO THE 100-105 RANGE ON THURSDAY). MAKE
SURE TO STAY COOL, STAY HYDRATED, AND CHECK ON THOSE WHO ARE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT.
SM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON CU FIELD
DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ARE FROM THE E TO
ENE AT 7-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 16-20 KTS. WINDS WILL
GO LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, BEFORE WE SEE A WIND SHIFT IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES TO THE NW (CURRENTLY TIMED
AT 16-18Z AT KATL). NO VSBY, CIG, OR PRECIP CONCERNS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 93 71 96 / 0 10 0 10
ATLANTA 72 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 64 88 65 89 / 0 10 10 20
CARTERSVILLE 71 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 20
GAINESVILLE 69 92 72 94 / 0 10 0 20
MACON 71 93 74 97 / 0 10 0 20
ROME 69 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 69 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 10
VIDALIA 72 91 75 96 / 10 40 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...LUSK
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