671
FXUS62 KFFC 241901
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 157 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR CHRISTMAS AND
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTH GA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS THROUGH CHRISTMAS:
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. THE MORNING STRATUS CLEARED QUICKLY TODAY, AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THERE WAS EVEN A
MORE SPRING LIKE CUMULUS FIELD BUBBLING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY, WITH ATLANTA, ATHENS, MACON
AND ROME ALL SETTING NEW RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE SAME
FACTORS THAT WERE IN PLAY TODAY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
(SURFACE WAA, VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, SUNSHINE). THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
CHRISTMAS. HERE ARE THE ODDS OF REACHING RECORD HIGHS:
ATLANTA: 74% (75 DEGREES FROM 2015)
ATHENS: 61% (77 DEGREES FROM 2015)
COLUMBUS: 75% (78 DEGREES FROM 2015)
MACON: 70% (78 DEGREES FROM 2016)
ROME: 91% (74 DEGREES FROM 1955)
RISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR FOG FORMATION. THE
GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF MACON AND COLUMBUS
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR
THIS AREA BY LATER SHIFTS (60% CHANCE). SOME PATCHY OF DENSE FOG
COULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE
COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL OCCUR. FOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTA
METRO THE FOG SHOULD BE HINDERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IF THESE
CLOUDS DON'T MATERIALIZE THEN THE ODDS OF DENSE FOG INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR NOW A DENSE FOG ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR (LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE.).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EAST CONUS AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMILARLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS, WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF
THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MUCH OF THE AREA
AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. AFTER
TEMPERATURES START THE MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, HIGHS WILL
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 60S IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC, THOUGH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE COULD
SPREAD ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL RANGE FROM 18 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS IN PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 16-24 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY
NORMALS. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE ADVANCING ACROSS
THE EAST CONUS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE MERGING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS, WHICH COULD BRING A JET
STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. A QUICKLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
ALSO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
TENNESSEE AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
RUN, WITH THE WARM AIRMASS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 TO THE SOUTH. BREEZY WINDS
OVERNIGHT COULD FURTHERMORE LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN FAR NORTH
GEORGIA TO THE UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN SPITE OF THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. RH VALUES
COULD APPROACH OR DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS, WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN COMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS (1500 TO 2500 FT AGL) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THURSDAY, MAIN SOUTH OF
ATLANTA. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE WEST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 1 AND 9 KT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z
THURSDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE TAF.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 54 76 55 72 / 0 0 10 10
ATLANTA 54 74 55 73 / 0 0 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 50 69 51 67 / 0 10 20 20
CARTERSVILLE 53 74 53 73 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 52 76 52 74 / 0 0 10 10
GAINESVILLE 54 73 56 70 / 0 0 10 10
MACON 51 78 53 75 / 0 0 0 10
ROME 56 75 56 74 / 0 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 52 75 53 73 / 0 0 10 10
VIDALIA 54 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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