161
FXUS62 KFFC 092315 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY DRIVING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAYBE IT'S THE CONDITIONING FROM WEEKS OF WHAT FELT LIKE ENDLESS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TALKING, BUT I'D ALMOST SAY THAT IT FEELS "NICE"
OUTSIDE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BUT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
OUTSIDE OF A FEW PLACES IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. WE'VE SEEN SOME QUICK
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WITHIN THE EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD QUICKLY FADE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE METRO.
WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TOMORROW AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MOSTLY LEVELS OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THOSE KEEPING
TRACK, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE "TEMPERATURE NEVER FALL BELOW 70
DEGREES" STREAK AT THE ATLANTA AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY GENERATE
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA. THE ROSSBY WAVE BREAK
ALOFT WILL HAVE COMPLETELY BROKEN AWAY OVER THE SE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS A
TROUGH DIGS A BIT INTO THE NE.
AN INITIAL SURGE OF A SYSTEM THROUGH THE NE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LAGGING BEHIND THE
DEEPER TROUGH WILL BRING SURFACE FLOW IN THE CWA AROUND TO THE SW
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE CWA AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA (WON'T RULE OUT SOMETHING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, BUT CHANCES LOOK TO BE BELOW 15% AT THIS
TIME). WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE COMES THE RETURN OF THE
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES, UNFORTUNATELY. HIGHS IN THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BRING TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK ONCE AGAIN. GET THE LAWN MOWED THIS
EVENING IF YOU CAN - IT'LL BE COOLER THAN LATER, I PROMISE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS, THE REGION IS POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OZARKS AND A SHIFTING BERMUDA HIGH
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA AND FEED AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY ON
FRIDAY, WITH VALUES SPIKING UP TO 2.25 INCHES FAVORING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, THE WPC HAS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP. WITH THE INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES, IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT NEARLY 80% OF THE STATE IS AT LEAST ABNORMALLY
DRY, SO MANY LOCATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND LACK OF MEANINGFUL SHEAR, THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY CAPE VARIABILITY
SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
WITH A WARMER FETCH OF GULF AIR AND MOISTURE, WE CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN OUR DAILY TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. ONE LIMITING ASPECT, WILL BE MORE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UP NEAR
THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LOW
CEILINGS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING KMCN
(KCSG ON THE FRINGE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS). ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT E/SE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. AFTER 18Z TOMORROW (THURSDAY), A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP (STILL LIGHT) AS A PIECE OF THE UPR RIDGE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE KCSG TO KMCN LINE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
DJN.83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 50
ATLANTA 72 93 73 93 / 0 10 10 60
BLAIRSVILLE 62 87 65 87 / 0 0 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 69 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 50
COLUMBUS 74 94 74 93 / 0 20 10 60
GAINESVILLE 69 91 71 92 / 0 10 0 50
MACON 72 93 73 93 / 0 20 10 60
ROME 68 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 70 93 71 93 / 0 20 10 60
VIDALIA 72 92 73 92 / 10 30 10 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...DJN.83
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