959
FXUS62 KFFC 310743
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND MID-WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT NORTHWEST
GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN
PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS ATL THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS THE WEDGE PUSHES IN, OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25MPH THROUGH THE EARLY TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS ALSO PUSHING IN FROM AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEDGE. OUTSIDE
OF THE WEDGE AREA (CENTRAL GEORGIA) SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS YET AGAIN WITH SCATTERED CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND UP TO 80 IN FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LATE TONIGHT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST GA ON THE REMNANTS OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
TENNESSEE. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS. MONDAY WILL SEE THE
WEDGE CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BEFORE LIKELY
RETREATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NW.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
THE SPC. DIVING INTO IT A BIT MORE, THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW CHANCE
THAT A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO NW GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD LEAD TO A LOW END DAMAGING WIND
CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE LOOSER SOILS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT OVERALL A PATTERN
SHIFT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS TALKED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON TAP ACROSS THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA STYLE BLOCK
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FINALLY GIVES WAY AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER MONTANA AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ANTICYCLONIC
ROSSBY WAVE BREAK OCCURS WITH CONSEQUENCES FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
MIDWEEK ONWARD IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
LIKELY FORMS TO OUR EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC (CLEARLY SEEN EVEN IN
ENSEMBLE MEANS, ADDING CONFIDENCE) AND DRIVES RELATIVELY COOLER, BUT
DEFINITELY MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY LASTING
THROUGH BASICALLY THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY MAY BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. QUESTION IS JUST HOW
FAR INTO THE AREA YET ANOTHER BACKDOOR STYLE FRONT (PSUEDO-WEDGE NOT
REALLY CAD IT'S COMPLICATED) PUSHES IN AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ALL THE FUN
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHO SEES POTENTIAL STORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA, PLUS THERE MAY BE SOME MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT IN ALOFT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR EAST/WEST
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF SET UP. I'D BET THAT THE
SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY PROGGED IN MOST GUIDANCE, BUT THERE ARE SOME OTHER
VARIABLES I'M LESS CONFIDENT IN TO LEAN INTO A SPECIFIC
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.
AFTER THAT, THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND
CLEARS OUT THE MOISTURE. WITH THE MOISTURE ALSO GOES THE AFTERNOON
TSTORM CHANCES, AND WE GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFIES UNDER THE GEORGIA SUN. WHAT SHOULD BE
MISSING IS THE HUMIDITY TO GO WITH IT - ENJOY THE RARE OPPORTUNITY
TO ENJOY A JUNE DAY IN GEORGIA IN WHICH THE DEWPOINTS ARE BELOW
60.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF BUT EXPECTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO PUSH IN THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE AS
THE WEDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING CIGS TO ALSO DROP TO IFR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL AS GUSTS UP TO 20KT. SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING BEFORE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
GOING INTO TOMORROW EVENING (22-01Z). CIGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
IFR/MVFR THE WHOLE DAY WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES. SOUTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS AND SHRA.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF EVENING SHOWERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 62 84 63 / 50 70 40 30
ATLANTA 75 65 84 67 / 60 30 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 59 79 59 / 30 40 50 20
CARTERSVILLE 77 63 85 65 / 40 20 40 20
COLUMBUS 83 68 89 68 / 80 30 10 20
GAINESVILLE 70 63 83 64 / 40 50 40 20
MACON 80 66 86 66 / 80 40 10 30
ROME 78 63 84 64 / 40 20 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 77 64 86 66 / 70 30 20 20
VIDALIA 82 68 86 68 / 90 50 20 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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