805
FXUS62 KFFC 190001
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND THE ATL
METRO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 5" OR MORE ARE EXPECTED.
- SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THURSDAY TO 8AM FRIDAY.
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TREE
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD TOWARD GEORGIA, PUSHING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE. AHEAD OF THIS, A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING HAS YIELDED SUBSTANTIAL
HEATING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GA, PROVIDING FURTHER
INSTABILITY (TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE LOW
80S TO NEAR 90 AS OF 2 PM EDT). THE 18Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION
SHOWS A SURFACE CAPE OF 3620 J/KG. WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT; WSW
WINDS AT AROUND 40 KTS WERE OBSERVED AT 850 HPA. THE SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST KM IS 23 KTS. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA INTO THE ATLANTA METRO THROUGH 11 PM EDT, FOR THE
THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF TORNADOES STARTING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE, NEAR THE AL BORDER AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF
THE 35-40 KT WINDS AROUND 850 HPA ARE LIKELY TO MIX DOWN THROUGH
THE EVENING - GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED, WITH HEAVY RAIN/DELUGES AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-4 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AND STRONG WINDS ENHANCES THE RISK OF DOWNED TREES.
WINDS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10-15 MPH. SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE MORNING, AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO MIDDAY. POPUP THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON - LESS VIGOROUS ACTIVITY AND LESS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR PUSHING
OUT THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SUNDAY WITH
INCREASED POPS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, WITH A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN LIKELY NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. COVERAGE WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
BUT MORE SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO RETURN TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS FROM TS ARTHUR ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE STRONGEST
PART OF THE LINE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE MCN AREA SO THE MCN TAF
SITE COULD SEE SOME +TSRA WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE NEXT HOUR.
ONCE THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF AND TSRA.
WE WILL STILL SEE SHRA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH SOME IFR IN
AND AROUND ANY STRONGER STORMS. WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER DOWN INTO
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE THROUGH 03Z THEN IFR THROUGH 14Z-16Z FRI.
AFTER THAT CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE THEN VFR BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH W TO SW WINDS
IN THE 15-20KT RANGE GUSTING 25-35KT THROUGH 12Z. WINDS CALM DOWN
TO 10KT OR LESS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 69 87 65 87 / 100 10 0 0
ATLANTA 71 85 68 86 / 100 30 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 65 81 57 82 / 100 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 70 86 64 86 / 100 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 71 86 71 88 / 100 70 40 60
GAINESVILLE 70 86 64 85 / 100 10 0 0
MACON 70 86 69 88 / 90 50 20 30
ROME 70 86 64 86 / 90 20 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 70 86 66 86 / 100 40 10 30
VIDALIA 73 86 72 90 / 80 80 20 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ020>022-030>035-037-
041>050-052>061-066>074-078>085-089>097-102>109.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ031>039-041>062-
066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....CONDRY
AVIATION...01
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