214
FXUS62 KFFC 260715
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WE GET INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SHOWN ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY WITH A MID
LEVEL DECK NEAR ATHENS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RIDGING PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TODAY BUT WITH
THE PATTERN AS A WHOLE LARGELY UNCHANGED, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW END GUST TO 15-20MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A
TAD THROUGH THE TUESDAY AS THE DRY AIRMASS STAYS SOLIDLY IN PLACE.
RH VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS WELL. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD BE A RINSE AND REPEAT FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE, WE GET TO TALK ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SMALL BREAK IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN THAT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST (JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN, OF COURSE).
THE WORK-WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK SUNNY AND MILD WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DAILY LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THERE
WILL BE SOME VARIATIONS OF A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO SOME MOVING
PIECES ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE OVERALL
SENSIBLE WEATHER WON'T FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT DAY TO DAY. ANOTHER
POTENT TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
1035 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, BRING ANOTHER
PSUEDO-WEDGE AIRMASS DIVING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY, FALL AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND
COULD EVEN KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 OR EVEN THE UPPER 60S IN SOME
PLACES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND WILL SLOWLY WARM A BIT, BRINGING US INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (MAYBE TOUCHING A FEW 80S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY).
THIS AIRMASS IS DRY AND NEVER REALLY ACCESSES ANY MOISTURE THANKS TO
BROAD SURFACE LOW THAT CONTINUES TO CHURN JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, SO NO PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED.
THIS ALL MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT GOING INTO SATURDAY. THE PLAYERS
WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN POLAR JET IN
THE NORTHEAST, BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW.
UNSURPRISINGLY, UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGH, AS THE
TIMING OF EACH OF THESE PLAYERS MAY HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON WHAT WE SEE.
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE SCENARIO WHICH SEEMS TO DELIVER RAIN
HAS A FASTER TIMING OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT RUNS INTO ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEDGE/CAD ACROSS US, EVEN IF
WEAK. THIS ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE BROADER LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATES SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE
15%-25% POPS SHOWING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SEEMS IN
LINE WITH THE NUMBER OF MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING LIKE THE ABOVE. THE
REST PUSH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATER DUE TO SHORT WAVE TIMING BEING
SLOWER, INITIAL WAVE BEING EVEN WEAKER, ETC. SADLY, THIS MEANS WE
CAN NO LONGER SAY HALLOWEEN WILL FOR SURE BE DRY, AND INSTEAD WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH THINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
SKC THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BKN LOW VFR DECK OVER AHN
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE AT 5-8KT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 43 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 72 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 72 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 73 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 71 47 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 73 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 72 42 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 76 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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