321
FXUS62 KFFC 220624
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
224 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE
THE START OF A WETTER PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND
DRY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB FROM THE 50S THIS MORNING, TO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER MOSTLY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND.
WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TO NO ONE'S SURPRISE,
ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THANKFULLY,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AVOID
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS, ONLY PEAKING AROUND 5-7 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF GEORGIA GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY IN SPITE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (AND
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS). WITH STRONG DIURNAL
MIXING, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN
25-35% ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
A LARGE-SCALE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
CLEARS GEORGIA TO THE EAST, TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SWING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THIS TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL
DRIVE A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH WILL IN TURN
ADVANCE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS NORTH GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND 80S TO THE SOUTH, INSTABILITY
MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHERE
CONDITIONS ALIGN. SUCH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANCE POPS WILL
PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MORE ROBUST SHEAR
PROFILES COMPARED TO SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM ABOUT 0.5" IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO 2" IN FAR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND FEW
AFTERNOON CU AROUND 6-8KFT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN OUT OF
THE SW AT 4-8 KTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 54 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 50 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 10
CARTERSVILLE 53 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 55 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 56 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 54 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 52 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 57 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....KING
AVIATION...CULVER
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