389
FXUS62 KFFC 181759
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WEAKENING RIDGE/WEDGE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NE. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES TODAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WHICH PUSHES SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO N GA TODAY. DEWPOINTS INCREASE
ACROSS NORTH GA INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COMBINED WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
BECOME FAIRLY STEEP THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NE THROUGH SATURDAY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS ALSO STAY
IN THE 90S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO A SIMILAR THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT GENERAL AND
MARGINAL RISK AREAS OF SEVERE FROM SPC LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED MID-
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WARM AND MOIST
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL POOL ACROSS THE
AREA, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S, COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S TO DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS A COOLER
'WEDGE' PATTERN. THIS SETUP WOULD INVOLVE THE MID-LEVEL LOW BEING
ABSORBED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OVER THE NORTHEAST US. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD TURN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, BRINGING COOLER AIR IN ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS FALLING TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY FRIDAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MEMBERS OF
GUIDANCE THAT EITHER KEEP THE MID-LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, OR BUILD A RIDGE BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EITHER OF
THESE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS PICTURE WILL BECOME
MUCH CLEARER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A CU
FIELD BETWEEN 050-060 EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN FAR NE GA
IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE SOUTH AND WEST, WARRANTING A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE METRO ATL SITES FROM 22-02Z. OUTSIDE OF
STORM OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE N/NW AT 4-7 KTS IN NORTH GA AND NE
IN CENTRAL GA THROUGH 02-03Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN NE AT 5-8 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 97 70 94 69 / 10 20 50 40
ATLANTA 96 73 95 72 / 30 30 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 90 66 88 64 / 30 10 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 97 71 96 70 / 20 20 40 30
COLUMBUS 96 73 96 72 / 10 10 50 40
GAINESVILLE 95 72 93 70 / 30 20 50 40
MACON 96 71 95 70 / 0 10 30 40
ROME 97 71 97 69 / 20 20 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 96 71 95 69 / 10 10 40 40
VIDALIA 93 72 93 72 / 0 10 30 30
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...KING
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