170
FXUS62 KFFC 241851
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT.
- HEAT CONCERNS REBOUND IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VERY MESSY FORECAST AND ENVIRONMENT TODAY WITH MULTIPLE INTERACTIONS
AT PLAY. WPC'S MD FROM THIS MORNING REALLY LAID OUT THE SITUATION
WELL SO TAKE A LOOK AT THAT. THERE IS CURRENTLY A CAD BOUNDARY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE ON SURFACE ANALYSIS YOU
CAN SEE EASTERLY WINDS. THIS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH HALL COUNTY NEAR
GAINESVILLE WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE INTENSE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. ALONG WITH THIS THERE IS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE NW WHICH HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE METRO AND
FURTHER NORTH. THIS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CAD BOUNDARY AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ENHANCED THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HALL COUNTY
AREA INTO GWINNETT, FORSYTH AND NORTHERN FULTON RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD 3-5" OF RAINFALL WITH AREAS UP TO 6-8" AS WELL.
AS WE PUSH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS
DOWN IN THE FLOW WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. OVERALL CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN LESS TODAY WITH POCKETS OF CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THESE TWO TOGETHER ARE RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS VS THE SHOWERS WE SAW THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER 1-3" INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITH EYES DEFINITELY ON THE HALL COUNTY AREA. THE FLOOD WATCH GOES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD CAPTURE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLOODING THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO THE
EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE EVENING TOTALS STACK
UP.
PUSHING INTO OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING THE CAMS ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE A PUSH OF RAINFALL SWEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND FLOW BEGINS TO SWITCH TO
THE NW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS FOR THIS PARTICULAR RAINFALL
MOSTLY JUST BECAUSE IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY.
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP PUSHING SOUTH BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT WE SHOULD SEE MORE LIMITED IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TOMORROW, MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS THE WEDGE
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TAKING UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY, THE SOUTHEAST IS POISED TO ENTER A REGIME OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED
RANGE. INITIALLY, THIS WILL DRIVE A LOWER PWAT AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE FRONTALLY-FORCED DOLDRUMS
WE'VE BEEN IN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, A PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP, PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS THE STAGE
FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION FORCED BY RIDGE RIDERS -- ANY
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE GOVERNING RIDGING. GIVEN
DRIER MID-LEVELS (AND THUS STEEPER LAPSE RATES), ANY FEATURES SENT
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WOULD SERVE TO LOCALLY
ORGANIZE CONVECTION, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING (AT LEAST) DAILY
MARGINAL SEVERE CONCERNS IF MCSS ARE ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED, DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY WIND/DOWNBURST RISKS AS DRY AIR IS ENTRAINED. TIMING
AND INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES MEANDERING THROUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW. THAT BEING SAID, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN UPTICK IN POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE ENTER THE PURVIEW OF HIRES GUIDANCE, WHICH
IS BETTER SUITED TO ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE ANY MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
FEATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES SURGING BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. CANNOT RULE OUT
THE NECESSITY OF A HEAT PRODUCT(S) (LIKELY AN ADVISORY) BY MIDWEEK
AS MOISTURE REBOUNDS IN TANDEM WITH HEAT PEAKING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MIXED BAG OF CATEGORIES OUT THERE AS A STALLED FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE METRO AND INTO AHN. SHRA/TSRA IS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z WITH SOME
TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH 00Z. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE METRO SITES FROM 9-14Z. WINDS TURN
MORE NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WELL AS CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AND POTENTIALLY IFR. AHN IS LIKELY TO BE FULLY SOCKED IN BY A
WEDGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN LIKELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMAL RELIEF.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON SHRA TOMORROW AND TIMING ON MVFR.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 87 71 89 / 60 20 30 30
ATLANTA 73 87 73 89 / 50 40 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 66 81 65 84 / 50 20 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 72 86 71 89 / 40 30 40 30
COLUMBUS 76 91 75 92 / 20 50 40 60
GAINESVILLE 72 86 71 89 / 60 20 20 30
MACON 74 91 73 91 / 30 40 30 60
ROME 71 86 71 89 / 30 40 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 72 88 72 89 / 30 40 40 50
VIDALIA 76 94 75 93 / 30 40 20 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>038-041>047.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page