206
FXUS62 KFFC 012334
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
(FRIDAY) MORNING.
- SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW MUCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
MAKING FOR FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT DAY, THE PRESIDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
THAT HAS SUPPORTED OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL, ALBEIT
INCREASINGLY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT DUO. AS IT DOES SO,
MOISTURE WILL REBOUND APPRECIABLY, WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING BACK
INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY THIS MORNING'S 12Z
SOUNDING RECORDED PWATS OF 1.22", DOUBLE THE VALUE FROM YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME (0.6"). IN THE MEANTIME, THIS MORNING'S FOG WILL GIVE
WAY TO YET ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS, AND
HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A PUNCTUATING DRY
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST.
CLEAR TO MOSTLY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE, DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT
LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA (NEAREST TO THE CORE OF GULF MOISTURE)
AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA (AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT) TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PWATS PROGGED TO ECLIPSE 1.5" --
EXCEEDING THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND APPROACHING OR BREACHING THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER -- RAIN RATES COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER STILL ON THE FINAL DAY OF
MODERATION OF THIS AIRMASS, NEAR 90 FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MARKED INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PWAT UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (ABOVE
THE DAILY MAXIMUM PER SOUNDING CLIMO) AND FAVORABLE JET STREAM
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT ARE TWO INGREDIENTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THAT SAID, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE MOST LIKELY, OWING TO
FACTORS INCLUDING THE STRENGTH OF A COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) "WEDGE"
AND HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. SEVERE WEATHER
IS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN A PATTERN THAT LIMITS INSTABILITY.
RAINFALL UNCERTAINTY: PER THE 07Z NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM),
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IS 2.75-3.75
INCHES. THIS SPREAD IS INDICATIVE OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE EXACTLY
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, AND/OR
HOW MUCH. TO ILLUSTRATE THIS -- THE LATEST GEFS PLACES THE SWATH
OF GREATEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, THE EPS ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA, AND THE CMCE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA (WITH TOTALS GREATER
THAN THE EPS, BUT SIMILAR TO THE GEFS). A FEW CAMS (THE NAM AND A
COUPLE VERSIONS OF THE RRFS) EXTEND INTO THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME
FRAME AND DEPICT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF MAXIMIZED RAINFALL TOTALS.
THUS, MAINTAINING OUR MESSAGING FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3-4 INCHES
SEEMS PRUDENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 5+ INCHES AS A REASONABLE
"WORST CASE SCENARIO" IN ISOLATED LOCALES.
THE WEDGE: THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LARGELY GOVERN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RESULTING CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE WEDGE AND THUS HAVE A TENDENCY TO
UNDERESTIMATE ITS STRENGTH AND ERODE IT TOO QUICKLY. WHERE EXACTLY
THE WEDGE IS SITUATED WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL TOTALS, AS
THE BOUNDARY OF THE CAD AIRMASS ACTS AS A FRONT AND MAY RAMP UP
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT, INTENSITY, AND LONGEVITY. ASSUMING AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEDGE AND THUS INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE CAPPED IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S (WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SHUNTING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.
WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DRY AIRMASS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE HIGH ENDS UP IS UNCERTAIN, AND
WILL GOVERN WHERE POPS ARE FOCUSED BOTH DAYS. THE GEFS SUGGESTS
THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA,
WHILE THE EPS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH
GEORGIA. FOR FANS OF AUTUMN -- HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S FOR THE MOST PART, AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S (WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL POTENTIAL AREAS OF IFR/MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS FROM 11-15Z, WITH BRIEF LIFR POTENTIAL TOO. WHERE THE
LOW CIGS OCCUR, SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO SCT-BKN MVFR OR LOW VFR
BY 16-17Z. ISO-SCT SHRA AROUND FROM 18Z THROUGH THE EVENING. TSRA
CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, OUT OF THE SE AT 4-8 KTS DURING THE
DAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FRI AM CIGS AND TIMING. HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 89 69 85 / 0 10 20 70
ATLANTA 69 88 71 84 / 0 20 20 70
BLAIRSVILLE 60 83 64 79 / 0 20 20 80
CARTERSVILLE 67 90 70 86 / 0 20 20 70
COLUMBUS 70 90 72 86 / 0 30 20 70
GAINESVILLE 65 87 69 83 / 0 10 20 70
MACON 69 90 71 86 / 0 30 30 70
ROME 66 90 68 86 / 0 20 20 70
PEACHTREE CITY 67 89 69 85 / 0 20 20 70
VIDALIA 70 91 72 86 / 0 50 30 70
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...CULVER
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