151
FXUS62 KFFC 201811
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT WILL WARM
BACK UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
AFTER A (VERY) BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PERSISTENT, PRESIDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY, THE SOUTHEAST IS ONCE AGAIN SITUATED UNDERNEATH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CLEAR,
DRY, AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY, WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROGGED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY,
RISING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S, AND POTENTIALLY TO 80 FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TIER. TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER STILL, WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH SLACKENING WINDS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE AREA WHICH
ULTIMATELY MEANS HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20-30% ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, SO FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL AREA BURN BANS.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY KEEPING OUR AREA ~10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TAKING A LOOK INTO THE LONGER RANGE MODELS,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE AREA COULD BE ENTERING A WETTER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH A FRONT LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GEFS SHOW RAINFALL
REACHING PAST NORTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE LATER WITH THE TIMING AND NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THE RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS. AFTER THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE MESSY AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL SEEMS LIKE IT'LL BE
POSSIBLE IT'S HARD TO NAIL DOWN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD CURRENTLY SEEN. PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY LOW BUT WITH INCREASED PWATS THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RAINFALL. PROJECTED PWATS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5-
1.85" WHICH IS DEFINITELY PUTTING OUR AREA ABOVE AVERAGE. TOO SOON
TO TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS BUT ANY RAINFALL HELPS WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR AND PRIMARILY SKC THRU THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CIGS AT 20-25KFT
WILL FILTER BACK IN MID-AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. WINDS INITIALLY NNW
AT 5-10KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15-18KTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THRU PORTIONS OF THE DAY TOMORROW. GENERALLY
EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE W SIDE TODAY AND THE E SIDE AFT 09-10Z
TUESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 52 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 41 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 46 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 48 76 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 49 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 46 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 48 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 50 81 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ006>009-
013>016-021>025-027-034-035.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...96
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