463
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
- THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT.
- HEAT CONCERNS REBOUND IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SOGGY WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME FOR MANY AREAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP COURTESY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
AND STALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT HAS THUS FAR KEPT THIS
MORNING'S SHOWERS LARGELY RELEGATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, THOUGH
THIS WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON, RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THEN
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING, THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN EXTREMELY MOIST 2 - 2.25"+ PWATS. A BROAD "SLIGHT"
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SWATH WILL ENCOMPASS NORTH GEORGIA TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK. CAMS ARE LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED IN AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME,
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEED TO
EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ONLY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY IN POSITION THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE PWATS COULD TICK EVEN HIGHER ON FRIDAY INTO
THE 2.25 - 2.5" RANGE. WITH SLOWING MEAN FLOW REMAINING PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SLOWER STORM MOTION IN COMBINATION WITH VERY
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFIED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
FRIDAY. THE DAY 2 ERO FOR FRIDAY EXPANDS THE "SLIGHT" RISK ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE EXISTS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A MORE PRONOUNCED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FLOOD WATCH COULD BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTHWARD
IN THIS CASE.
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, CLOUDS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY "COOLER" CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. WITH THAT SAID, THE HEAT WILL DEFINITELY STICK AROUND IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BREACH 100 FOR MOST AREAS IN MIDDLE GEORGIA EACH
AFTERNOON, AND EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL STILL REACH THE UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER, WETTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A 50 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BERTHA WILL BE A LESS OF A MOISTURE CONTRIBUTOR BY THIS
JUNCTURE, BUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES/COVERAGE LOOK TO BE ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TIMED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
STEERING FLOW, WITH THIS RISK LOCALLY ENHANCED IN LOCATIONS THAT
BECOME SATURATED FROM A PREVIOUS DAY'S STORMS. WPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO
SATURDAY.
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME STILL LOOKS TO TAKE OVER STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS A STRONG,
BROAD RIDGE OF NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOWER
PWATS WILL ALLOW GEORGIA TO TREND BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN WITH MUCH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, PENDING ANY DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW RIDING
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO FOCUS/INCREASE CHANCES OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HINTS REMAIN IN LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OF
SOMETHING TRYING TO RIDE THIS FLOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD MEAN SOME SORT OF MCS, BUT OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS RANGE. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO LOOK TO RETURN
IN EARNEST FROM MONDAY ONWARD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100 TO 110.
A MODEST RESPONSE IS NOW SEEN IN THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
(EFI) BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES (+0.5 TO 0.7),
SUGGESTING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL HEAT EVENT BASED ON A 20-YEAR MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY FOCUSED ON A 5-WEEK PERIOD REPRESENTING THIS TIME OF
YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. DAYS WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AND THUS LESS CLOUD COVER) WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES. BOTTOM LINE...WE'LL
BE WATCHING BOTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE HEAT FORECAST FOR
POTENTIAL HAZARDS NEXT WEEK. 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ISN'T LIKELY TO
CHANGE EVEN INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD. TSRA IS
POSSIBLE 22Z-02Z BUT COULD SEE IT LINGER THROUGH 04Z BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY IFR. SHOULD SEE SHRA BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE
MORNING WITH TSRA BEGINNING ~16-18Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND POTENTIALLY VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
TOMORROW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA AND MVFR.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 72 87 72 / 20 50 70 40
ATLANTA 91 75 88 74 / 20 30 60 20
BLAIRSVILLE 82 67 80 67 / 70 70 80 30
CARTERSVILLE 90 73 87 73 / 50 60 80 30
COLUMBUS 95 76 94 76 / 0 10 20 20
GAINESVILLE 90 72 84 72 / 40 70 80 40
MACON 94 76 93 74 / 0 0 20 10
ROME 88 72 87 72 / 70 60 80 30
PEACHTREE CITY 91 74 89 73 / 10 20 50 20
VIDALIA 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>024-030.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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