712
FXUS62 KFFC 182332
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(<20%) WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION:
CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO BUBBLE AND DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
WEAK RIDGING HAS ALSO MOVED IN PLACE AT THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH NO NOTABLE OR DEFINED FEATURES OR FORCING ALOFT,
HONING IN ON THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA GENERALLY
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES (~20%) OF SEEING STORMS BOTH DAYS, WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT HELPING THE MATTER. IF ANY STORMS GET GOING, THEY
ARE MORE LIKELY TO ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2-10PM
EACH DAY. WHILE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR, DAYTIME MIXING COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WITH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
WITH WEAK RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN, EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE LOCALES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 90F
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH GA AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FAVORED IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.
07
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. SOME COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TO NEAR AVERAGE, THEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS RETURN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST:
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MESSY OVER THE COMING WEEK, BUT THE
OVERALL OUTCOME LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE OF SEEING A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING EVEN BETTER CHANCES OF MUCH
NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH.
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY IS LOOKING WARM WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH,
BUT A POTENT WAVE PASSING OVER THE NE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THAT AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR SUNDAY
WEATHER. GOOD NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLES AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN OF NE GA AND NC AS A GOOD STARTING POINT
FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AND THE
ATHENS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS, SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION POP UP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. INTO SUNDAY, THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS IS THE
PERFECT SETUP FOR A WEDGE/CAD THAT PUSHES INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY.
THINGS GET MESSY AFTER THAT. MONDAY MAY BE DRY, THOUGH ENSEMBLES
SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO BE IN PLACE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AFTER THIS, WE
SEE ANOTHER SIGNAL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES FOR A LOW TO CUTOFF OVER THE
UPPER GREAT PLAINS THAT THEN QUICKLY DROPS SE TOWARDS THE AREA. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS HOW CHALLENGING A SCENARIO THIS MAY BE FOR THE
MODELS TO HANDLE, GIVEN IT SHOWS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT CUT
OFF AND INTERACT OVER PLAINS. SO, UNCERTAINTY IN RAIN CHANCES AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT, GIVEN THE BROADER
OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES, MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CWA
SEEMS LIKELY, BRINGING AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IMPACT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. WHICH,
GIVEN WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT, IS
MUCH NEEDED.
BEYOND THE RAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CAD MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT GENERALLY ONLY
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SOME SIGNAL THAT WE SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT, THOUGH
THIS MAY BE MORE A BY-PRODUCT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
LUSK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY FEW/SCT CU BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON 6-8 KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB
WITH NE WINDS 3-6 KTS ON FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 64 87 64 86 / 10 10 0 10
ATLANTA 68 89 67 89 / 10 20 0 10
BLAIRSVILLE 60 82 60 80 / 10 20 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 65 91 64 90 / 10 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 68 93 67 92 / 10 20 0 0
GAINESVILLE 65 87 65 86 / 10 10 0 20
MACON 66 89 65 89 / 10 20 0 0
ROME 65 92 65 91 / 10 10 0 10
PEACHTREE CITY 65 89 63 89 / 10 20 0 10
VIDALIA 66 90 65 91 / 10 20 0 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...RW
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