402
FXUS62 KFFC 291946
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH MOVE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM AL.
THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE IS RIDING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GETTING SOME ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT THANKS TO CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT WAS ALREADY IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN MS/AL THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE AND PUSH INTO WEST GA RIGHT
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER KICK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG PUSH OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO MON AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THERE IS ALSO A A LITTLE BIT IF INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE
SO MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AND ATL TO
AHN LINE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND 1-3" ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR FLASH FLOODING PER WPC WITH MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5)
EXTENDING THROUGH THE REST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A RESULT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING TEMPS
IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
01
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE BLOCKING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. AS WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE NORTHEASTWARD, WAVES OF
SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THE BALANCE OF THE HIGHER SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING FARTHER SOUTH. QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND INITIATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOME OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS THROUGH
FRIDAY RANGE GENERALLY FROM 1-2.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND,
SETTING UP A CAD WEDGE AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
NORMAL.
RW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
STAY IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE INTO THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BY
20-22Z AND INTO THE MCN/CSG AREAS BY 22-24Z. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER NIGHT AND TAPER OFF LATE MON AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE S-SE THEN TURN TO THEW-NW BY 18-20Z MON.WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS. VSBYS ARE VFR NOW BUT WILL SEE SOME
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
01
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 47 61 47 63 / 100 40 20 30
ATLANTA 49 62 50 62 / 100 50 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 44 61 45 57 / 90 30 20 50
CARTERSVILLE 48 62 47 58 / 100 30 20 30
COLUMBUS 52 68 54 70 / 100 50 20 20
GAINESVILLE 46 61 48 60 / 100 30 20 40
MACON 50 67 53 69 / 100 50 20 20
ROME 49 63 47 56 / 100 20 30 40
PEACHTREE CITY 49 64 50 66 / 100 50 20 20
VIDALIA 53 71 57 73 / 100 40 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01
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