072
FXUS62 KFFC 131124
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 334 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS FINALLY ON THE WANE BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO REDEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY WILL BE
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALABAMA WHICH WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD BUT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES
WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE WARM AT -5C AT 500MB BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE MAY ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT,
WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE SEEN REDEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THU
NIGHT SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PRIMED FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY.
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PLAY AN EVEN BIGGER ROLE FOR FRIDAY AS IT
PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST. MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS STEADY STATE WHICH
IS TO SAY VERY HIGH AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS POINTS
TO CONTINUED HIGH POPS. IN FACT WILL PAINT AN AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
TROPICAL LIKE PROFILE BUT MOISTURE LOADING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS WELL. STORMS AND CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.
DEESE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA COME SUNDAY WITH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE MODELS AND ANOTHER SETS UP COME TUESDAY WITH
NW FLOW IN BETWEEN GIVING POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY, TAILING OFF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN
INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MOST PART, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BDL
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE... MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, STILL SEEING SOME
NOCTURNAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT BUT THUS FAR AWAY FROM THE MAIN
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS THE MODELS WERE
SUGGESTING THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEFLY AT CSG. INCREASED MOISTURE
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA AND REQUIRE THE
NEED FOR A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHOT AT TSRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z REQUIRING A PROB30. BASED ON WHO ULTIMATELY
SEES THIS ACTIVITY, MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE AND LIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 91 72 87 70 / 60 60 70 70
ATLANTA 91 72 86 71 / 60 60 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 85 66 79 66 / 60 60 90 80
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 70
COLUMBUS 92 74 88 72 / 60 60 70 60
GAINESVILLE 89 71 84 70 / 70 60 80 80
MACON 93 72 89 71 / 60 60 60 60
ROME 92 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 70
PEACHTREE CITY 91 71 86 71 / 60 60 80 60
VIDALIA 91 74 90 73 / 60 50 50 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page