352
FXUS62 KFFC 251031
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF I-85 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHERE LOCALLY
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
OUR REPETITIVE CYCLE OF WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY-PEAKING CONVECTION
FOLLOWED BY CLOUDY, HUMID NIGHTS REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED WITHIN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOCUSED BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN REMAINS
ENTRENCHED, DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL NORTHWARD,
CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2".
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED BOTH BY DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL
AS MCV FEATURES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS, ANY AREA WHICH SEES TRAINING OR LINGERING STORMS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PICK UP A QUICK 2-3+" OF RAINFALL, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING. IN FACT, SOME SPOTS (FOR INSTANCE, PARTS OF PAULDING
AND COBB COUNTIES) HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 5-8" OF RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED AT
TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE PROBABILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHEST. WITH THAT SAID, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ANYWHERE WITHIN THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME AND/OR AREAL
EXTENT WILL BE EVALUATED TODAY GIVEN THE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
OTHERWISE, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIMITED GIVEN TROPICAL-ESQUE "TALL SKINNY" INSTABILITY PROFILES.
HOWEVER, WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
(20-25 KTS), A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WE
CONTINUE THIS WETTER PERIOD. CURRENT CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LEANING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. LOOKING AT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BLOCKING
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AT LEAST WITH TROUGHING TO OUR
WEST NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST IN
THE FORM OF THE BERMUDA HIGH SANDWICHING THE AREA IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE S/SW
AND KEEP PWS ELEVATED. CURRENT FORECAST PWS IN THE 1.5-2" WHICH ARE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ULTIMATELY THESE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS OF GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO BEING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE/ URBAN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF MID 80S DURING FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR
LOWS WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
IFR TO LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL 15-17Z. MVFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 17-19Z BEFORE MORE
SUSTAINED VFR IS MORE PROBABLE. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL PEAK IN
COVERAGE ROUGHLY 19-02Z. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 02-04Z. WIND DIRECTION WILL WAVER FROM
SSE TO SSW THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 3-6 KTS
OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 81 65 82 65 / 80 80 70 80
ATLANTA 79 67 81 67 / 90 80 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 77 62 76 62 / 70 90 80 80
CARTERSVILLE 80 66 81 65 / 90 80 80 70
COLUMBUS 82 67 84 67 / 90 60 70 50
GAINESVILLE 78 66 79 66 / 80 90 80 80
MACON 83 66 84 66 / 90 60 70 40
ROME 80 65 80 65 / 90 80 90 70
PEACHTREE CITY 80 66 82 65 / 90 70 70 60
VIDALIA 86 68 88 69 / 90 70 70 60
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ001>009-011>016-019>023-
030>033-041>044-052-053.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...RW
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