095
FXUS62 KFFC 271724
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
124 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND THURSDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN
RECENT DAYS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONGSIDE THE RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT FROM TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING AT
LEAST A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IN RAINFALL COVERAGE, THOUGH WE WILL
NOT BE ENTIRELY SHUTTING OFF THE SPIGOT. TODAY WILL STILL BRING A
RELATIVELY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE BROAD PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY SIMILAR WITH THE CWA REMAINING SITUATED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. WITH THAT SAID, MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE WESTERLY AS A TROUGH DIGGING FROM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHIFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, THE RISK FOR STORM TRAINING
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOWER TODAY THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE NORTHEAST, PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
ASSUREDLY WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA, COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY AND OF
THE SCATTERED VARIETY. EVEN SO, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DESPITE A REDUCTION IN OVERALL COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WE'RE STILL NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LONG TERM CHANGES OVER THE
COMING FORECAST PERIOD. WE'RE STUCK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A BERMUDA
HIGH STUBBORNLY HOLDS OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A MOISTURE SOURCE FOR MUCH OF GEORGIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA EVERY DAY WITH POPS EACH AFTERNOON EXCEEDING
50%. THE LONGER THIS TREND HOLDS, THE LESS RAIN IT WILL TAKE TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH RAIN RATES
RANGING FROM 2-3" PER HOUR.
IT'S A BIT OF A MESS AND I'M GONNA BE HONEST HERE, I DON'T ACTUALLY
KNOW WHEN IT'S GONNA BREAK. THE FURTHER OUT INTO THE LONG RANGE
MODELS YOU GO, THE MESSIER THINGS BECOME. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT
SOME KIND OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF MIGHT FORCE AN ATMOSPHERE
CHANGE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EURO IS PRETTY SET ON
HOLDING THIS PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. THERE
IS NO REAL CONSENSUS OTHER THAN THE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN
IS GOING TO STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE.
THE RAIN COOLED ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL. WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
VRB CIGS THIS AFTN CONTINUE TO CLEAR TO VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
PRECIP. SCT SHRA NOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH AFTN WITH SCT TSRA
THROUGH 00Z. SOME REMNANT TSRA/SHRA PSBL BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z NEAR
METRO SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. LOW CIGS
FILL EARLY MORNING WITH LIFR MOVE OUT OF SOUTH AND AL. ANY LOW
CIGS FOR METRO AND CSG SITES WILL BE TEMPO, RETURNING TO VFR CIGS
BY THUR LATE MORNING. SCT TO ISO POPS RETURN THUR AFTN. WINDS
MOSTLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 7KTS AND GENERALLY TURN TO W TO NW THRU
PERIOD, THOUGH MAY BE VRB NEAR TSRA AND OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 84 66 85 65 / 50 10 40 50
ATLANTA 83 68 84 68 / 60 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 78 62 81 61 / 70 20 30 10
CARTERSVILLE 84 66 85 66 / 70 30 40 30
COLUMBUS 85 67 87 67 / 50 30 50 30
GAINESVILLE 81 67 83 66 / 70 20 30 30
MACON 85 67 86 66 / 40 30 40 40
ROME 83 66 84 65 / 70 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 84 66 85 66 / 50 20 40 30
VIDALIA 88 69 88 69 / 40 40 60 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...SM
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