999
FXUS62 KFFC 131113
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GEORGIA FROM NOON TO 8PM. HEAT INDICES OF UP TO 105
ARE EXPECTED. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
WHEN OUTDOORS.
- A STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE BIG HEADLINE UP FRONT WILL BE THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA. HEAT AND MOISTURE REACH A MAXIMUM TODAY OVER THIS
AREA, BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE HUNDREDS. STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING/PLAYING OUTDOORS, ETC.
YES, IT IS SUMMER IN GEORGIA, AND THE NATURAL RESPONSE IS TO SAY
THAT SUMMER IS ALWAYS LIKE THIS, BUT IT IS EARLY IN THE SEASON AND
IT DOES TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET REACCLIMATED TO OUR HEAT. THE ONLY
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT THEY LIKELY WON'T HAVE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR THE AREA REACHING THE 105 THRESHOLD FOR HEAT
INDEX. SOME MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE MIXING OUT MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES A BIT, BUT RTMA ANALYSIS
FOR PREVIOUS DAYS SHOWS THAT THESE MAY BE A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE IN
THIS. THE HRRR IS THE PARTICULAR CULPRIT WHICH DOES THIS THE
STRONGEST, SHOWING DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST, BUT IT IS KNOWN FOR HAVING AN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE NON-LOCAL
BL MIXING SCHEME THAT MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE FOR THIS ENVIRONMENT.
INCLINED TO BELIEVE TDS WILL HOVER CLOSER TO THE 70 MARK, KEEPING
US WELL IN THE REALM OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL INDICES.
AS FOR WHAT'S GOING ON ALOFT, CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA KEEPING THE CORE OF THE JET TO THE NORTH
OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SUBTLE FEATURES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON WHAT WE SEE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY. FRONT THAT IS DRAPED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT THANKS TO A VARIETY OF
FEATURES (WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE NORTH, BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH, WEAK SURFACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, AND SOME CONVECTIVE COLD
POOL INFLUENCES). THIS MAY AID IN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR IS WEAK OVERALL GIVEN THE JET CORE REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH. INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT THANKS TO
VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPS AND PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH FORECAST VALUES
NEAR 2". DCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG DEMONSTRATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEEING SOME STRONG STORMS WITH PRECIP LOADED DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD
CRASH DOWN AND BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE, BUT WON'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM THAT COULD BRING 40-50
MPH WINDS.
ONLY OTHER THING TO MONITOR FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AGAIN FOR
EASTERN GEORGIA. WHILE FUTURE HEAT ADVISORY AREA MAY SHRINK A
LITTLE, CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA
WELL INTO THE 100S AGAIN. UNCERTAINTY IS A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THIS
ONE, AS POP COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. BUT BARING
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST (OR A SIGNIFICANT BUST IN
TODAY'S FORECAST), EXPECT ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE, SOUTHERN
CONUS WILL BE SITUATED AT THE BASE OF BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING,
WITHIN A REGIME OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK. WITH COMPARABLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THE KEY PLAYER FOR MUCH OF
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, POISED TO BREACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE STATE. BOLSTERED LIFT/FORCING
ALONG THE ANCHORING FRONT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
IN OFF OF THE GULF (PROGGED PWATS AS HIGH AS 2") WILL SUPPORT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXCEED THAT OF A TYPICAL,
SUMMER-LIKE DAY. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED CONVECTION, AND THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL MODEL
VARIABILITY IN POSITIONING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY EVIDENT WHEN VIEWING SPREAD IN 24-HR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FOR LATE MONDAY IN ATLANTA, WHERE THE 25TH PERCENTILE IS EFFECTIVELY
NEGLIGIBLE (<0.1") AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS NEARLY 1.5".
ALL THIS TO SAY, EXPECTING A MORE CLOUDY AND RAINY, AND THUS COOLER,
STRETCH BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, AS MUCH AS 6-10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, ANY LINGERING FRONTAL FORCING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED, AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH IS PROGGED
TO NUDGE ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL UPTICK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT 040 TO 050. TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION,
BUT NOT ZERO AT METRO TAF SITES. VCSH INCLUSION DURING AFTERNOON
IS IN PLACE FOR CSG/MCN, WHERE AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE WEST SIDE, 4-8 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 97 75 93 72 / 10 10 30 20
ATLANTA 93 75 90 72 / 10 10 50 30
BLAIRSVILLE 87 68 84 64 / 20 10 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 93 74 90 69 / 10 20 70 50
COLUMBUS 97 76 94 74 / 20 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 92 73 89 70 / 10 10 30 30
MACON 96 75 94 74 / 20 20 40 20
ROME 91 74 88 69 / 10 20 80 60
PEACHTREE CITY 94 74 91 71 / 20 10 50 30
VIDALIA 98 77 97 77 / 30 30 40 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ038-039-049>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...LUSK
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