442
FXUS62 KFFC 160712
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE CORE OF AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE (APPROACHING 600
DAM, SOME 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE) OVERHEAD AND COLD
AIR DAMMING AT THE SURFACE WILL COMPETE AGAINST ONE ANOTHER
REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS FILLED IN WITHIN THE "COOL" DOME
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WEDGE, WITH CLEARING AND SCATTERING EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY HOT
(IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S AREAWIDE), THOUGH JUST A TICK "COOLER"
THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASED MIXING WITHIN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN
WEDGE ZONE -- THE METRO AND POINTS EAST -- WILL HELP TAMP DOWN ON
DEWPOINTS (DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S), PREVENTING
MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FROM BEING REALIZED.
FOR THURSDAY, BROAD SCALE CHANGES TO OUR PRESIDING FLOW PATTERN WILL
BE MINIMAL TO NEGLIGIBLE, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MIRROR
TODAY'S: HOT AND DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
AS WE FINISH UP THE WORK WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL START TO
SHIFT, WITH THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING WEST AS A
CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE WON'T REALLY START TO MOVE IN UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND, SO
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS. MOST
AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE, THOUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA COULD
SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE
LOWERS AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW TRICKLES IN. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE POOLS
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS BY NO MEANS LOOKING LIKE A WASHOUT
WEEKEND, BUT WE COULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS OFF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A CHUNK
OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW GET ABSORBED BY TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRIER ZONAL FLOW MOVING IN. FOR NOW,
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE PERSISTENT LOW
OVER THE AREA, SUPPORTING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THRU 15Z FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES, WITH
LOW-END CHCS FOR INTRUSION OF SCT TO PERHAPS BKN IFR CIGS. EXPECT
A RETURN TO VFR/OCNL SKC BY 16-17Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
E AT 5-10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MORNING CEILING PROGRESSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 90 65 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 90 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 87 63 89 65 / 10 0 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 93 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 91 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 90 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 93 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 90 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...96
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