313
FXUS62 KFFC 131045
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING YESTERDAY.
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
TOMORROW, CONTINUING LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
STOUT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
ZONALLY OBLONG OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS IT DOES SO, ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ACTING AS A LID TO PREVENT AIRMASS MODERATION.
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION --
THAT LINGERS BEYOND THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE WINDOW --
CAPABLE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
SHOWERS (AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO) ARE ONGOING AT THE
TIME OF WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION, AND CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING TODAY,
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HAMPERED
(AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS) OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER (SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG AS OPPOSED TO WELL
OVER 3500 J/KG OBSERVED ON YESTERDAY'S 00Z SOUNDING). EVEN SO, WATER-
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM. GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT
APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS MOISTURE-WISE, CARE WILL NEED TO
BE TAKEN TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED
FLASH/NUISANCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED MOVING INTO
TUESDAY, AND HIRES GUIDANCE HINTS AT A NEAR CARBON-COPY OF TODAY:
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT, A BRIEF LULL THROUGH MID-MORNING, AND THEN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE APPRECIABLY COOLER, GENERALLY IN
THE 80S AREAWIDE (AND POTENTIALLY IN THE 70S FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT ELEVATION), AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
LIKELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN WE FINALLY RETURN TO OUR NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
PATTERN. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN AS WE START NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN GA
COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
REBOUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES PUSHING TRIPLE DIGITS AS WE COME UP ON THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RISE BACK OUT OF THE 60S AND INTO
THE 70S, AND AS RESULT WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEAT
RELATED PRODUCTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
FEW-SCT IFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD METRO TAF SITES WITH BKN IFR PSBL
THRU 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A PD OF LIFR CIGS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK,
BUT LOW CONF. MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA EXP INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLD SHRA (AND PERHAPS VERY ISOLD TSRA) PSBL THRU 15Z, BUT
GENERALLY AT MOST VCSH EXP. BEST WINDOW FOR IMPACTS IN TSRA FOR
NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE 18-22Z, WITH A SECONDARY PEAK BETWEEN
00-05Z. HEAVIEST PCPN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS IN BR. EXP
CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR INTO THE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO AT
LEAST SCT IFR FOLLOWING CONCLUSION OF FINAL WAVE OF PRECIP. WINDS
INITIALLY OUT OF THE SW/SSW AT 4-8KTS WILL SWING TO THE SSE BY
16-17Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 82 68 81 69 / 80 90 70 30
ATLANTA 84 70 82 71 / 80 90 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 77 64 79 64 / 80 50 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 84 70 83 70 / 80 70 60 30
COLUMBUS 86 71 86 71 / 70 60 80 60
GAINESVILLE 80 68 80 69 / 80 80 60 30
MACON 85 70 85 70 / 80 60 80 50
ROME 83 69 83 69 / 80 60 70 20
PEACHTREE CITY 84 69 82 69 / 80 80 70 50
VIDALIA 90 71 87 71 / 70 80 80 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...96
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