454
FXUS62 KFFC 091024
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES STAY OVER NORTH GA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- RISING HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST VALUES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS CENTRAL GA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY: LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
A RECAP FROM MONDAY: AS PER USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE WERE SOME
THAT SAW RAIN AND SOME THAT DID NOT. FOR THOSE THAT DID SEE RAIN, 24-
HOUR MRMS ESTIMATES ROUGHLY 0.5 TO 1.5" FELL WITH SCATTERED
POCKETS OF 2-3". THOUGH THE REAL WINNER IS ACTUALLY DOWN IN MACON
AND HOUSTON COUNTIES WHERE, MRMS ESTIMATES AROUND 4-5" OF RAIN
FALL DUE TO AN AREA OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE SET UP FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE AREA BUT SUPPORT ALOFT WILL
WANE THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IT'S TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR GIVEN THE UNCHANGED
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND SLOW MOVING OR
'TRAINING' (OCCUR IN THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY) SHOWERS AND STORMS
DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT. PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, OUR PWS STILL SIT
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0". THUS, ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 2-3" RAINFALL RATES AND/OR DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME POSING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THOUGH UNLIKE YESTERDAY,
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HREF/HRRR...AND OTHERS) INDICATE AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGHER FORECAST QPF TOTALS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA. THIS MAY BE IN PART DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED
AGAIN TODAY, THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGHEST POPS/QPF AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ELECTED
TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. HOWEVER, IF THINGS EVOLVE DIFFERENTLY
TODAY, A WATCH MAY BE RECONSIDERED. ENSURE YOU ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE FORECAST AND REMAIN AWARE OF AREAS THAT RECEIVE OR
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THESE AREAS WILL BE
PRONE TO FLOODING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE
PARTAKING IN ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS AND CAMPING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WEDNESDAY: THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTABLY LESS AS WE
HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY SIT AT
15-30% AND WILL GENERALLY ALIGN MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES TRENDS: CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP A LID ON
OUR TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR MOST PLACES BUT REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN AREAS
WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH
FORECAST VALUES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LONG TERM STARTS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS ARE STILL FAIRLY
ELEVATED WITH VALUES IN THE IN THE 1.50" TO 2.25" RANGE. THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THU/FRI BUT ITS AXIS DOES BEGIN TO
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THU, TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS FRI AND
INTO NW GA BY DAYBREAK SAT. DEPENDING ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA. FURTHER NORTH MAY DECREASE THEM, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL POOLING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT TO REACH INTO NORTH GEORGIA. THIS FRONT LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND AND DIURNAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE. WE'LL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 90S IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STILL KEEP THE AREA IN
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE W TO SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
THU/FRI MOVING WESTWARD AND INTO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS ONCE THE REMNANTS OF
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM ROUND THE RIDGES PERIPHERY, IT GETS CAUGHT
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS LA/MS
SUN INTO MON. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES WE COULD BE DEALING WITH
SOME DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS GA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
GETTING INTO DAYS 8 AND 9 SO I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE BUT
IT IS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND 2-4SM VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 14Z
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO MVFR AND VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. ISO -RA IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST GA BUT CHANCES FOR SHRA
INCREASE BY 14-15Z MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN SITES THRU THE
AFTN. EMBEDDED TSRA REMAINS PSBL BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND
TIMING IS LOW. S TO SE WINDS 3-7KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 82 67 89 70 / 70 20 20 0
ATLANTA 84 70 89 72 / 60 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 65 83 66 / 80 20 40 0
CARTERSVILLE 86 70 89 72 / 60 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 88 70 92 72 / 50 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 82 68 87 70 / 60 20 20 10
MACON 84 68 90 71 / 40 10 10 0
ROME 87 69 89 71 / 50 20 20 0
PEACHTREE CITY 85 68 90 71 / 60 20 20 0
VIDALIA 90 70 93 73 / 0 0 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07
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