507
FXUS62 KFFC 120121
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
921 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..LATE EVENING UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- A FEW STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
50-60 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL GA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF DISSIPATING STORMS IN NE ALABAMA
AND TN THIS EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AROUND THE METRO ATLANTA FOOTPRINT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW. UPDATED THE KEY
MESSAGES TO REMOVE ISOLATED STRONG WIND THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. APPARENT TEMPS BETWEEN 100-105 ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA AND GIVEN THE PATTERN IN
PLACE, IT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE CWA
FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL LIKELY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS
EXTREME BUT THAT COMES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20. THE SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK AND WHILE SHEER VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, THE PROXIMITY TO A SLOW MOVING FRONT JUST TO
OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES COMING UP ON 3K J/KG
ARE ENOUGH TO GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT ANY STORM THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE THE ENVIRONMENT IT NEEDS TO OVER ACHIEVE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS AGAIN ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GEORGIA. LIKE TODAY, STORM
MOTION APPEARS TO BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH A LOOSE LINE OF STORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WITH IT SOME WIND DAMAGE. GIVEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF
A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
THE METRO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE A WET FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE SETTLING BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO
CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES GIVEN THE CUT OFF SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN, WHICH IS GOOD TO SEE PROVIDED THINGS AREN'T UNDERDISPERSED.
NAM EVEN HAS A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE LOW CLEARLY STATIONED
OVER NORTH GEORGIA ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE BOTH
FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME
TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE HEAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR ALL BUT EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S. MUCH
BETTER THAN OUR REPEATED DAYS OF 100S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE WET AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO PIVOT OVER
THE AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WHICH REFLECTS ON 500 MB PATTERN AS
STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH. OUR LITTLE CUTOFF WILL LIKELY
BE FILLING IN AND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK INTO NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES. TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY REBOUND
THROUGH THE WEEK, RETURNING TO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S
BY THE END OF WEEK. YOU KNOW YOU WEREN'T GOING TO GET AN EXTENDED
BREAK FROM THE HEAT IN JULY IN GEORGIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST CONVECTION HAS ENDED, THOUGH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA, POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12Z. UNSURE WHETHER THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BY
THE TIME IT REACHES ATL SITES. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT,
PICKING UP FROM THE SW/W 4-8KTS BY 15-16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
07
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 73 91 70 85 / 20 60 60 90
ATLANTA 74 89 72 85 / 30 70 60 80
BLAIRSVILLE 66 82 65 78 / 50 60 70 90
CARTERSVILLE 72 88 70 85 / 60 60 70 90
COLUMBUS 75 93 73 88 / 20 60 60 80
GAINESVILLE 73 88 70 83 / 40 50 70 90
MACON 74 93 71 88 / 20 60 70 80
ROME 71 87 70 84 / 70 70 60 90
PEACHTREE CITY 73 90 70 86 / 20 60 50 80
VIDALIA 76 97 73 92 / 10 30 70 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....VAUGHN
AVIATION...07
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