930
FXUS62 KFFC 120549
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
INCREASING SW FLOW HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE CU FIELD
OVER WESTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE TRANQUIL BUT ALL
EYES REMAIN FOCUSED TO OUR WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT USHERS IN A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST MOVE INTO OUR NW COUNTIES
AS EARLY AS 6 TO 7 PM THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD. A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GULF WILL AID IN ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND HELP TO REINFORCE THE
LINE AS IT'S ENTERING OUR AREA AND PUSHING EASTWARD. SRH VALUES
100- 150 M2/S2 MAY FAVOR EMBEDDED SPIN UP TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE AS WELL. AS PER USUAL, HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION.
THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST HREF GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
SMALL PEAK IN MUCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) FROM ROUGHLY I-20 SOUTHWARD
AND I-75 WESTWARD. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EMBEDDED SPIN-UP TORNADOES AND SMALL HAIL ARE
SECONDARY THREATS PARTICULARLY FOR THE CORRIDOR PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED (INCLUDING THE COLUMBUS AREA). WHILE AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE HAZARDS MENTIONED ABOVE INCLUDE
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOWNED TREES/POWERLINES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND SW COUNTIES -- IN LINE WITH OUR
THINKING CONCERNING THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE LINE OVERNIGHT TO THE
SOUTH. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDS FURTHER EAST
ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS MARGINAL RISK
DOES EXTEND INTO THE 'DAY 2' TIMEFRAME, I.E. 8AM THURSDAY TO 8AM
FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS TO CAPTURE ANY LINGERING IMPACTS AS THE LINE
EXITS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN AND PICK UP FROM THE NW FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FUNNEL INTO THE NW PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36HRS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER -- FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEGREE COLDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN WE ARE TODAY! FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE NW AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE SE. THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
FORECAST VALUES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AREAWIDE THANKS TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
OVERALL UNEVENTFUL LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STARTING OFF WITH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUNNY DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL GEORGIA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PUSH, WE'LL SEE A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS AND
LOW RHS ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEXT TUESDAY LEADING TO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 6-10Z WITH SOME LINGERING SHRA
UNTIL 13Z. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NW AFTER 10Z AT 10-15KTS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30KTS AT TIMES. CIGS RIGHT NOW ARE MVFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THEM, BUT THOSE AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING. AFTER 15Z,
CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TOWARDS SKC.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
VAUGHN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 36 64 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 39 66 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 31 61 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 36 66 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 69 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 36 64 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 38 68 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 37 70 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 36 66 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 39 70 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...VAUGHN
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