850
FXUS62 KFFC 121831
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS BY MID-WEEK.
- WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK GIVEN THE ONGOING
VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, BRINGING NO OPPORTUNITY
FOR ANY BIG CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK. EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
ALONGSIDE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ON MONDAY. DENSER HIGH CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
STILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S.
FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN THIS WEEK:
A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A
TEXTBOOK OMEGA-BLOCK SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING, WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE. DRY AIR FROM THE MID TO
HIGH LATITUDES WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP PWAT VALUES OVER GEORGIA GENERALLY UNDER 0.75-1", RESULTING
IN NEAR ZERO RAINFALL CHANCES. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE
LATE THURSDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG IT IS AS CRASHES INTO THE
RIDGE, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
FAR NW GA. THE OVERALL LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK WILL ONLY
WORSEN OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE LOW MOISTURE
LIKELY LEADING TO DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY END UP AROUND 12-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DAILY RECORDS
WOULD BE IN JEOPARDY WITH THOSE TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONE BENEFIT OF THE LOWER
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER LATE THIS WEEKEND?
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST RAPIDLY DROPS OFF AFTER SATURDAY DUE
TO A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS A GROWING
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES THAT SHOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STARTING TO
BREAKDOWN AND PROGRESS. THIS PROGRESSION, WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GETTING KICKED OUT WHILE BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN US, WOULD INITIALLY BRING A COLD FRONT AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
ON THE FLIP SIDE, THERE IS STILL A DECENT NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES
THAT KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WILL START
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW
CU IN THE 6-7 KFT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND MORE SSE BY AROUND 20Z AND LARGELY FAVOR SSE
TONIGHT BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD SW BY 11-15Z MONDAY. SPEEDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 6-12 KTS AND 3-6 KTS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
RW
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY: RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA GIVEN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WIND GUSTS NEARING CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS AMID VERY DRY
FUELS. FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE AS RH VALUES
DROP BELOW 25%.
FOR MONDAY: CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AMID MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY'S VERY DRY VALUES, LIKELY REMAINING JUST ABOVE OUR
TYPICAL CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 25% FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THAT SAID,
EVEN IF THRESHOLDS AREN'T QUITE MET, THE RISK FOR QUICK/UNWANTED
FIRE SPREAD FROM OUTDOOR FIRES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED ELEVATED GIVEN
ONGOING VERY DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 57 82 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 59 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 57 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 57 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 57 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 57 83 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 57 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 56 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 57 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>009.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page