449
FXUS62 KFFC 122343
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 105 IN SOME AREAS BY SATURDAY.
- A STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS NEW YORK, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STEADY WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX ("FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURE) VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-85 AND BETWEEN 100-104 DEGREES IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW, THIS REMAINS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH ANYONE
PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OR DO ANYTHING STRENUOUS OUTDOORS SHOULD USE
CAUTION, AS THIS IS THE WARMEST WE'VE BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR AND IT
TAKES TIME TO REACCLIMATE TO GEORGIA SUMMER.
IN THE MIDST OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, SBCAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST. DRIER AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL HAS HELPED LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THESE DIURNAL STORMS
AND CAPPED THEIR VERTICAL GROWTH. SEVERE WEATHER THUS APPEARS TO
BE UNLIKELY WITH THESE DIURNAL STORMS, THOUGH THEY COULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. FURTHERMORE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 2
INCHES, STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WEAK
STEERING FLOW, AND SLOW STORM MOTION COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING, MOST LIKELY IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
AS THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON, THE AXIS OF A TROUGH HAS SWUNG THROUGH
THE LOWER MIDWEST, DRIVING A COLD FRONT TROUGH TENNESSEE AND TOWARDS
NORTH GEORGIA. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAD ENTERED THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF GEORGIA AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND FORCING AHEAD
OF IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. STORMS COULD NONETHELESS GET AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CONVECTIVE COLD POOLING, THOUGH THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR OFTEN MEANS THAT COLD POOLS
EVENTUALLY OUTPACE STORMS EVEN IN SPITE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS
LIKELIHOOD WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
STORMS CONTINUE SOUTH, WHICH ADDS UP TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
POPS TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SBCAPE AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG,
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL, WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WARRANTING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING GEORGIA, ANOTHER HOT
AND HUMID DAY ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, DEWPOINTS RISING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN NORTH GEORGIA AND MID
TO UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO ATHENS, WHICH
COULD EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES. A POTENTIAL
POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HOW
QUICKLY IT DEVELOPS. INCREASED COVERAGE WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT HEAT
INDICES, AND THUS DECISIONS ON ADVISORY WILL BE MADE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, THAT WILL BE TRICKY ON
SATURDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR OR ORGANIZED FORCING, INITIATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
WILL HAVE SOME DEPENDENCY ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS LINGER FROM
TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE
BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WHERE MILD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD KICKS OFF WITH A TRANSITION TO A WETTER,
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HOLDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
FEATURES IS A SHORT WAVE IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY, RETURNING
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES OF 70-80% OVER NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE RISK IS LOW, PARTICULARLY AS THE FORCING IS OFFSET TO THE
NORTH, BUT WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
ON MONDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS AXIS AS IT STALLS OVER NORTH/MIDDLE GEORGIA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE
ANCHORING FRONT, WILL PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERN
OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP AND THE LEVEL OF STORM TRAINING OR REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS OVER AN AREA. WPC'S GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON
TOTALS IN THE LAST 12-24 HOURS -- FAVORING AMOUNTS UNDER 2 INCHES
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY -- BUT THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILES OF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION (1-1.5 INCHES) SHOW
THAT IT'S STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MEANINGFUL QPF INCREASES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS THE TYPICAL DIURNAL EBB
AND FLOW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, IN THIS WETTER PATTERN, ACTIVITY
IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE TRADE OFF WITH THE WET WEATHER IS THE RETURN TO MORE MODERATE
SUMMER HIGHS FOR GEORGIA. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST DAY FOR
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT TUESDAY (THE WETTEST DAY) COULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY NORTH/WEST GEORGIA LOCATIONS (6 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 7-10KT OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE CALMING AFTER
DUSK. DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
BETWEEN 280-310. A CONSISTENT STREAM OF CIRRUS AT 20000+ FT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CU AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
UPDIKE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 75 96 73 93 / 0 20 20 50
ATLANTA 75 93 74 90 / 0 20 20 60
BLAIRSVILLE 68 87 67 84 / 10 30 20 80
CARTERSVILLE 74 91 73 90 / 10 30 30 80
COLUMBUS 75 98 75 95 / 0 20 20 50
GAINESVILLE 73 91 72 89 / 0 20 10 50
MACON 76 97 74 93 / 10 20 30 50
ROME 73 90 73 88 / 20 30 30 80
PEACHTREE CITY 74 94 73 91 / 0 20 20 60
VIDALIA 78 99 77 96 / 10 30 30 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...UPDIKE
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