112
FXUS62 KFFC 151908
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
208 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AN LIMITED THREAT FOR SPIN UP TORNADOES WILL LINGER IN EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 4 PM.
- WARMER AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE
WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 8 PM TODAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM. TOSS IN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
THAT WILL AID SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND THE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, THE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER ENOUGH BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM NEAR 20 TO 40 KT) SHOULD REMAIN,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS ALL BUT DONE
NOW THAT THE MAIN LINE HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE GA/SC BOARDER, WITH
JUST THE SMALLEST DEGREE OF RISK HANGING ON WITH ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MACON. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THESE WILL NOT BE THE NORM DO THE ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE.
TONIGHT & MONDAY:
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT SUBSIDENCE WILL
SET IN AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. THIS WILL SET
THE REGION UP FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY, WITH MORNING
CLOUDS CEDING TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND TO THE SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM. AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM
OVER THE GULF TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING MID-WEEK, WINDS OVER
GEORGIA WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN AN EVEN WARMER
AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY, TO LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY, AND MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THURS/FRI. SOME LOW 80S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. WE COULD SEE SOME DAILY RECORDS BE TIED BROKEN
FOR WARMEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN AFTER MID-WEEK:
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST IN A
POTENTIAL SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CRASHING INTO THE RIDGE,
BRINGING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT 15-30% CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. FOLLOWING THIS, THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO
INCREASE QUITE A BIT, SO OUR CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES STARTS TO
DROP. OVERALL, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN
ON FRIDAY, WITH EVEN BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
A MIX OF LIFR, IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MIXED WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS
SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 12 KT RANGE ARE FAVORED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS OF THE TAF.
ALBRIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 42 65 38 66 / 40 0 0 0
ATLANTA 46 66 42 67 / 30 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 39 65 36 63 / 30 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 44 67 42 68 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 69 45 70 / 30 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 42 64 40 65 / 30 0 0 0
MACON 48 67 41 68 / 50 0 0 0
ROME 46 71 43 74 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 46 66 40 68 / 30 0 0 0
VIDALIA 51 66 42 70 / 60 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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