747
FXUS62 KFFC 150733
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY HEADLINE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES EVEN MORE VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE REMAINS DIRTY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY, BRINGING
DANGEROUS HEAT WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES, 90+ WBGT VALUES, AND
HEATRISK VALUES INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY WITH SOME AREAS TOUCHING THE
EXTREME CATEGORY. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON REACHING THOSE
MORE EXTREME VALUES THANKS TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES, WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR TODAY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE
HEAT ADVISORY AND PUSH IT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE JUST AS
HOT, IF NOT EVEN A TOUCH WARMER IN SOME AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHERE RECOVERY FROM HEAT REMAINS
LIMITED FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A DEWPOINT TO MATCH. EAST
GEORGIA WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED A CLOSE EVALUATION FOR POTENTIAL
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SUNDAY.
BEYOND THE HEAT, EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER
STORMS. PLENTY OF HEAT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE MEANS THAT DESPITE
BEING RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH WARM UPPER LEVELS AND POOR LAPSE
RATES, WE STILL SHOULD HIT CONVECTIVE T DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT A SIMILAR OUTCOME TO PREVIOUS DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SHEAR REMAINS NON-
EXISTENT OVER THE AREA, BUT HREF MEAN SBCAPE IS 1500-2500 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA BY NOON. THIS WILL GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME
STORM CORES THAT ARE ABLE TO GET PRETTY FAR UP, AND WHAT GOES UP
MUST COME (IN THIS CASE) CRASHING BACK DOWN IN THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE RISK WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT LESS PRODUCTIVE ON THE CONVECTIVE FRONT AS SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A GEORGIA SCORCHER, FOR SURE! CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM, BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE HOT. MODELS
SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PEAKING ON MONDAY
BEFORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVES HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR THE AREA IS A SUPPRESSION OF STORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY
AND A SLIGHT UPTREND IN POPS EACH AFTERNOON FROM THEN ON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS ON MONDAY.
DEPENDING ON EXACT CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LOW GIVEN
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION, MAX TEMPS COULD REACH 100 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO, AND WOULD BE THE
FIRST TIME ATL HAS HIT 100 SINCE THE END OF LAST JULY (ONLY THE
3RD TIME THIS DECADE). DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, PART OF THE REASON TEMPS ARE ABLE TO GET AS HIGH AS THEY
ARE, SITTING AROUND 70F. THE RESULTANT HEAT INDEX WILL BE AROUND
105 OR GREATER.
AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY MID NEXT WEEK, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RESUME. RESULTANT CLOUD COVERAGE
MAY HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT, THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 103+ FOR A MAJORITY
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. THESE WILL SLOWLY DECLINE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROLONGED HEAT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA CONCERNS. WINDS REMAIN
ON W TO NW SIDE AT 4-8 KTS DURING DAY, GOING LIGHT TO CALM AT MOST
SITES OVERNIGHT. CU WILL BUILD DURING AFTERNOON. TSRA POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON 18Z-24Z RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 97 75 98 75 / 20 10 10 0
ATLANTA 94 77 97 77 / 20 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 88 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 95 75 97 75 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 96 77 97 77 / 30 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 95 75 96 76 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 0
ROME 94 74 96 75 / 20 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 94 75 96 75 / 20 10 0 0
VIDALIA 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 20 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...LUSK
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