939  
FXUS62 KFFC 191139  
AFDFFC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
739 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 425 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT, SLOWLY BRINGING  
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED  
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL AND GA THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING  
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND CURRENTLY HAVE THE  
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREAS DOWN TO NEAR COLUMBUS. WE  
HAVE A TORNADO WATCH IN AFFECT THROUGH 8AM OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-  
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND  
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT CHANCE TO  
LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COLDER AIR  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOT IN NORTHWEST AL AND EXPECT  
OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEE SOMEWHAT OF A WARM UP THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO NORTH AND WEST GA.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATION OF NORTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY  
WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF TN TOMORROW COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10-15  
DEGREES COOLER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TODAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO  
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
ATWELL  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
LONG TERM STARTS OUT COOLER AND DRY WITH ONLY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES  
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT QUICKLY COMING TO AN END WITH  
A DRY EASTER SUNDAY IN STORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO START  
THE WORK WEEK.  
 
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE INCONSISTENT WITH HANDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH A  
WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME AM  
FAVORING MAINLY LOW CHANCES FOR N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN  
THE EUROPEAN. AT THIS TIME, FAVORING CHANCE POPS FOR N AND MOST OF  
CENTRAL GA.  
 
BDL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z UPDATE...  
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE AREA. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH 16-18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE  
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO WEST AT 10-15KTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 25KTS IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.  
 
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.  
 
ATWELL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ATHENS 70 45 56 43 / 90 40 40 10  
ATLANTA 68 45 56 45 / 80 40 40 5  
BLAIRSVILLE 65 39 48 37 / 90 60 50 20  
CARTERSVILLE 67 43 55 40 / 70 50 50 10  
COLUMBUS 69 46 63 44 / 80 20 10 0  
GAINESVILLE 68 44 53 42 / 90 50 50 10  
MACON 71 45 61 44 / 90 20 10 0  
ROME 66 43 56 40 / 70 60 50 5  
PEACHTREE CITY 68 44 59 42 / 80 30 30 0  
VIDALIA 76 49 64 47 / 80 30 5 0  
 

 
   
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...  
MUSCOGEE...PIKE...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...  
TROUP...UPSON...WEBSTER.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ATWELL  
LONG TERM....BDL  
AVIATION...ATWELL  
 
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