400
FXUS62 KFFC 130652
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH RIDGING
SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A SUBTLE FEATURE WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY ON
FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP. AT THE SURFACE,
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY WILL
SLIDE SE AND CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT-SUN.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AREAWIDE. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CAPTURING THE MIXING WHICH MAY
OCCUR....MEANING THE FCST VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH. I DID USE A
BLEND OF NBM10 DPTS ALONG WITH SOME HI RES GUIDANCE WHICH KNOCKED
DOWN THE DPTS A BIT. THE GOOD NEWS IS WINDS OVERALL WILL BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 4 TO 6
DEGREES INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
STILL BE COOL AND IN THE 30'S/40'S OR CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST KEEPING GA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BY DAYBREAK SAT, THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE
LOW CENTER PUSHES INTO NORTH AND WEST GA SAT EVENING WITH PRECIP
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE FROM W TO E THOUGH SUN MORNING.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS FAIRLY WEAK ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
SO ONLY GOING WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THINGS HEAT UP A BIT AND
BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY BUT ITS STILL NOT TO BAD. SURFACE
BASED CAPES PEAK SUN AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WITH VALUES EXPECTED IN THE 100 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. LIFTED
INDICES DO THE SAME THING WITH VALUES AROUND 0 TO -2 ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GA. SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS GET UP INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S SO WE WILL HAVE SOME MINIMAL INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ONE THING THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IS AMPLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1" TO 1.5" RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN MAKER.
CURRENT 3 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 1" TO 1.5" TOTALS ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ISOLATED AREAS IN THE 1.75" TO 2" RANGE. WE DEFINITELY
NEED THE PRECIPITATION BUT THIS MUCH PRECIP COULD CAUSE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES.
THE MAIN LOW CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
FL/GA BORDER BY 12Z MON CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OFF THE FL COAST BY
00Z TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM KEEPING
THINGS DRY TUE AND WED. TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS CYCLE FOR ALL SITES. WINDS OUT OF THE
NNW WILL SHIFT TO THE NE EARLY AM FRIDAY AND THEN TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 59 35 63 48 / 0 0 0 40
ATLANTA 61 39 63 50 / 0 0 0 60
BLAIRSVILLE 57 31 59 42 / 0 0 0 60
CARTERSVILLE 62 36 63 48 / 0 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 67 41 68 53 / 0 0 0 50
GAINESVILLE 59 36 61 47 / 0 0 0 50
MACON 64 37 67 51 / 0 0 0 30
ROME 65 37 67 52 / 0 0 0 70
PEACHTREE CITY 62 37 64 50 / 0 0 0 60
VIDALIA 65 38 70 52 / 0 0 0 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
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