191
FXUS62 KFFC 161853
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THU/FRI. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED UP OVER GEORGIA OFF OF THE
GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N/CENTRAL GA, AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK TO THE NORTH/NORTH
EAST) WILL AID IN MAINTAINING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS, POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE 1, IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER, CONTINUING TO
SUPPLEMENT THE ALREADY AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. WITH THESE FACTORS
IN MIND, THERE REMAINS THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO & ATHENS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TOMORROW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DELAY TO HEATING, AND THEREFORE A DELAY IN THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THAT
BEING SAID, BY MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON TOMORROW, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL GA
INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 8-12F WARMER THAN TODAY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, PERSISTING
DYNAMIC, AND THE PERSISTING (AND PERSISTENTLY ENHANCED) TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE PLENTY TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN, AND LIKELY THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BY THU MORNING THE NHC FORECAST HAS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE LA/MS BORDER JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
NEAR NATCHEZ, MS. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER WITH PRECIP JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO WEST GA AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WAVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS GA THU AND INTO THE CAROLINAS FRI MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRI WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
WAVE MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO N GA ALSO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO STAY FAIRLY ORGANIZED AND PUSH INTO S
GA/N FL THROUGH SAT MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AIRMASS TO
FILTER INTO THE STATE SAT DRYING THINGS OUT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES IN FROM MS/AL SUN AFTERNOON.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THU/FRI WILL
BRING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM THU TO SAT MORNING STAY IN HE 1.75" TO 2.50" RANGE. WERE
LOOKING AT 3 TO 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE 2.5 TO 6" WITH
THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WE
WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME
FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED QUICK
SPIN UP TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IS UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH PORTIONS OF WEST GA (ROME
TO JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS INCLUDING PARTS OF THE ATL METRO AREA)
UNDER A MODERATE RISK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDS. EMBEDDED ISOLD TS ARE POSSIBLE, AS EARLY AS AROUND 19Z,
THRU AROUND 00-01Z. AFT 00-02Z, CIGS WILL CONT TO LOWER, BECMG
GENERALLY IFR, W/ PATCHY LIFR LIKELY, MOSTLY AFT 07Z, UNTIL AROUND
12-16Z, WITH SCATTERING BEGINNING IN THAT TIME PD. WINDS ARE 4-8 KTS
OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THE TS THREAT RETURNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, AFT 20Z FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF IN TS RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MEDIUM-HIGH CONF FOR
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 66 87 72 87 / 50 20 20 90
ATLANTA 67 85 73 84 / 50 30 30 90
BLAIRSVILLE 58 82 67 80 / 10 10 40 90
CARTERSVILLE 66 87 73 84 / 30 20 40 90
COLUMBUS 68 85 73 85 / 70 80 40 100
GAINESVILLE 66 85 72 84 / 40 10 30 90
MACON 67 84 72 86 / 70 70 30 90
ROME 66 87 73 84 / 30 20 40 90
PEACHTREE CITY 66 85 72 84 / 50 50 30 100
VIDALIA 69 85 73 91 / 70 90 10 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...CRS
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