692
FXUS62 KFFC 312354
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
- AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE 12Z FFC UPPER AIR OBSERVATION SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 0.84 INCHES, WHICH IS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
60S TO NEAR 70. EVEN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S,
THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ARE "ONLY" IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 100.
THIS BRIEF STINT OF RELATIVELY CALM WEATHER COMES TO A QUICK END
TOMORROW. MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION, PULLED UP OFF OF THE GULF
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
RAINFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AGAIN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW, WHICH IS IN
EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO
GEORGIA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW MORNING, LIKELY AROUND MID-MORNING.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IT TRAVERSES THE STATE, BUT, STILL,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN GEORGIA, AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK (OF AROUND 1 TO 3 HOURS) IN THE RAIN AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FURTHER FUELED
BY THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT, INFLUENCED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA (ROUGHLY FROM HARALSON COUNTY TO FANNIN
COUNTY AND NORTHWESTWARD), WHILE THE SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5)
CLIPS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE, MOSTLY DADE COUNTY
AND SLIVERS OF WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL; DAMAGING, GUSTY WINDS;
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE CONVECTIVE RISK PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR FLOODING RAINS THROUGH SATURDAY; AREAS THAT SEE RAIN,
PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS, FROM BOTH ROUNDS OF
STORMS ARE AT A THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
PUSHING INTO SUNDAY, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS WILL
PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EASTWARD AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA, FL AND THE CAROLINAS. CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO BE
IN RANGE OF THIS TIME FRAME AND WITH THE INCREASED PWATS (2-2.2")
CONTINUING AND MODEST CAPE VALUES THERE LIKELY WILL BE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE
AREA WILL BE IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT
US BACK INTO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
POPUP THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK BY FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STARTING SAT
MORNING. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO TAF SITES
BY 15-18Z. THESE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH 21-23Z, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AROUND HOW MUCH SHRA WILL STAY IN PLACE ONCE TSRA
MOVES THROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH AFTERNOON SAT,
DROPPING TO IFR AROUND 00Z IN THE EVENING AND REMAINING INTO MOST
OF OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AT VERY END OF ATL TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE W TO SW
INTO TOMORROW, 4-7 KTS. WINDS MAY GO BRIEFLY TO EAST SIDE (SSE)
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TIMING OF TSRA/SHRA, HIGH ALL OTHERS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 70 88 71 86 / 0 70 70 70
ATLANTA 73 85 72 87 / 0 90 70 50
BLAIRSVILLE 65 80 67 81 / 0 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 71 86 71 88 / 10 80 70 40
COLUMBUS 75 88 73 90 / 10 80 70 60
GAINESVILLE 69 84 71 85 / 0 90 80 70
MACON 73 90 71 88 / 0 80 70 80
ROME 70 86 70 87 / 20 80 80 30
PEACHTREE CITY 71 85 71 87 / 10 90 60 50
VIDALIA 74 93 73 89 / 0 70 50 90
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...LUSK
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