892
FXUS62 KFFC 122338 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP, A REINFORCING COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS
CURRENTLY LOOK QUITE LIMITED IN BOTH AREA AND AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY NORMALS,
LARGELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA TO THE MID
50S IN EAST- CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20-25% IN
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
YESTERDAY ALLOWED FINER FUELS TO DRY OUT IN THIS AREA AND MORE
DRYING IS EXPECTED IN SPITE OF THE CIRRUS DECK AND LIGHT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 7
PM EST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING, WEAKENING
SURFACE HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-25% IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY
AND DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE REGION, WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO
FOLLOW. THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE SINKING INTO THE EASTERN U.S AT THE START
OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF
STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY NORTH GEORGIA. THE ONGOING DRIER TREND HAS CONTINUED
WITHIN RECENT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH QPF
LARGELY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
WAKE OF MOST PRECIPITATION, LEAVING A LIMITED WINDOW FOR OVERLAP.
STILL, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE REGION OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW. EVEN IN THESE SPOTS, ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIMITED WITH PROBABILITIES FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH WITH NEWER GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES FOR
EVEN 0.5" OF SNOW ARE LARGELY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS
CALIBER REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
ISOLATED BLACK ICE POTENTIAL AS THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FILTER IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE SAVING GRACE FROM
WIDESPREAD CONCERNS WILL BE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS THAT SHOULD HELP DRY MOST ROADWAYS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH THURSDAY BRINGING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S IN NORTH GEORGIA TO
40S FARTHER SOUTH, SOME 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH A
GENERALLY DRIER TREND ALSO REMAINING EVIDENT WITH NEWEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OVERLAP IN
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN FOCUS OVER THE
COMING DAYS, BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC
SCENARIO REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 3 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 4-7
KTS OUT OF THE WEST LATE TOMORROW (TUESDAY) MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 30 58 38 58 / 0 0 0 10
ATLANTA 33 57 41 56 / 0 0 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 27 56 32 50 / 0 0 0 30
CARTERSVILLE 26 56 36 55 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 30 59 39 58 / 0 0 10 10
GAINESVILLE 33 56 39 55 / 0 0 0 20
MACON 29 60 38 59 / 0 0 10 20
ROME 30 60 40 58 / 0 0 0 40
PEACHTREE CITY 27 58 37 57 / 0 0 10 20
VIDALIA 32 61 39 59 / 0 0 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...MARTIN
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