682
FXUS62 KFFC 100047 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
847 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 830 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA AND WEST GEORGIA (INCLUDING METRO ATLANTA) UNTIL
11 PM.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL (15 TO 20+ DEGREES)
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOLLOWING A CLOUDY (AND MARGINALLY COOLER) END TO THE WEEKEND AND
A FOGGY START TO THE WORK WEEK THIS MORNING, A RETURN TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. CLEARING AND
SCATTERING OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S,
12 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MORE NOTABLY, A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT (AND MAINTENANCE OF) A COMPLEX OF
STORMS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS
EVENING. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETER --
BASICALLY, THE PROBABILITY OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS REMAINING
ORGANIZED WITHOUT DISSIPATION -- VALUES OF 70 TO 90 FOR ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z (AND LATER) RUNS OF
HIRES GUIDANCE/CAMS HAVE DEPICTED A STARK NORTHWARD TREND IN THE
PATH OF THE LINE OF STORMS, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO ENTER NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND CONTINUE
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER DARK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MODEST LAPSE RATES, ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS, AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1500 J/KG), LENDING ITSELF
TO A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE SEGMENTS TO EXIST (AND
PERSIST) ALONG THE LINE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM THE AL/GA
STATE LINE, DRIVEN BY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL (>1 INCH), AND A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
WITHIN ANY KINKS/BULGES/REFLECTIVITY NUBS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LINE. A QUICK INCH (PERHAPS MORE) OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE
WHERE PEAK STRENGTH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. NUISANCE STREET FLOODING
OR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE IN THESE LOCATIONS.
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION APPEARS LIKELY THE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO THE COMPLEX ADVANCES (MCS MAINTENANCE
DROPS TO 50 TO 60 AND BELOW), AND CHANCES FOR SUBSEQUENT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY. A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK
HAS BEEN ANALYZED AS FAR EAST AS ATHENS, CAPTURING WHERE
DOWNTRENDS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT LOW-END CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PEEK THROUGH.
PATCHY SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE, BUT LINGERING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL/SUFFICIENTLY SCOURED OUT BY THE
MCS. COVERAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT -- CONTINUING AS LATE AS EARLY
AFTERNOON -- WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA,
COINCIDENT WITH A SECONDARY PULSE/DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AT
THE MID- LEVELS. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SCANT. WE MAY BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CLEAR
TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES THE LONGEST, THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO A NEAR-CARBON
COPY OF TODAY'S, INTO THE MID-70S TO UPPER-80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST OPENS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THREATENED AMID WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN NEAR 90 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS
WARM, HUMID AIRMASS COMES IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY TAKING A LINEAR COMPOSITION BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, LOOK TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK
REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF GEORGIA, SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE
RISK IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OUR AREA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH A DAY
3 "MARGINAL" RISK OTHERWISE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE I-85
CORRIDOR. IN GENERAL, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL WANE TO SOME DEGREE, THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS
REGARDING THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PROBABILITIES FAVOR RAINFALL TOTALS LARGELY ABOVE 0.5-
0.75" WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING OVER AN INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER) WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A BRIEF RETURN OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVEN
SO, THIS COOLDOWN REALLY ONLY GETS US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH, THOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FROST OR PERHAPS A LIGHT FREEZE COULD
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. MIDLEVEL LOW
RETURNS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY, KICKING OFF A RAPID WARMING TREND WITH WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SURGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW (TUESDAY)
MORNING. FIRST -- AN EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER. ASSUMING THAT THE STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER, THE TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT ATL AND THE OTHER METRO
SITES ARE ON TRACK. TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT AHN, MCN, AND CSG ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON THE EVOLUTION/PATH THAT THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS TAKES. SECOND -- THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW LOW CIGS DROP OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED
IFR AT ATL AND THE OTHER METRO SITES, BUT THIS COULD DEPEND ON
LINGERING RA/DZ IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS. CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (OUTSIDE OF TSRA).
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING AT ATL AND ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 60 79 62 83 / 40 30 0 0
ATLANTA 61 78 63 83 / 60 30 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 55 74 59 78 / 70 40 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 60 78 61 83 / 70 40 10 10
COLUMBUS 61 84 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 60 77 63 81 / 60 40 10 0
MACON 61 85 63 86 / 30 10 0 0
ROME 63 83 65 86 / 80 50 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 60 80 61 84 / 70 20 0 0
VIDALIA 63 88 64 89 / 10 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...MARTIN
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