420
FXUS62 KFFC 181040
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, LEADING TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF
EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAIN TODAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY. SOME MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING LIKELY FOR MANY
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A VERY HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM, CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HIGH (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX) PWATS
WELL OVER 2". COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S THIS AFTERNOON, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN PEAK IN THE 100S
FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 WILL
BE BREACHED. FOR THIS REASON, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS NOON TO 8 PM TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A MEANDERING MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE DIRECT
IMPACT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL IT COULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE COMING DAYS
(NHC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN LOW 10-30% PROBABILITIES OF DEVELOPMENT).
REGARDLESS OF ANY FURTHER ORGANIZATION, MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, ANY STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH/URBAN FLOODING IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGEST
STORMS WOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA EXTENDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INITIATED TO THE NORTH
COULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE AREA, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN OVERALL UPTICK IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT, AND SOME AREAS COULD AGAIN REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A SLIGHT, YET RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL, SHIFT IN THE FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK IS MAINLY DEFINED BY A SLOWLY
EASTWARD DRIFTING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD HOLD STEADY ABOVE 1.75" WITH SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. PWATS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, THOUGH POPS REMAIN AROUND 15% TO 30% GIVEN
WEAK UPPER FORCING.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE ANY LOW THAT MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE EFFECTS IT MAY HAVE
ON LOW LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON ANY EFFECTS TO THE AREA. A STRONGER LOW COULD RESULT
IN VORTICITY BANDS STRETCHING INTO THE CWA WHICH COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS ALONG ANY BANDS OF VORTICITY
COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. ALL THAT SAID, WE
WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE DRY COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK (WED INTO THUR) COULD BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE MOISTURE. REASONABLE CASE SHOWS HEAT INDICES BY LATE NEXT
WEEK IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, THOUGH MORNING IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT AHN THROUGH AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE, SCT CU 3.5 -
5 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
MOST PROBABLE 20-01Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW 5-10 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 93 74 94 73 / 20 20 40 20
ATLANTA 91 75 93 75 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 85 68 86 68 / 30 10 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 91 73 92 73 / 20 10 50 10
COLUMBUS 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 60 30
GAINESVILLE 91 74 92 74 / 20 10 40 10
MACON 93 73 92 73 / 30 30 40 20
ROME 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 60 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 73 93 73 / 20 20 40 30
VIDALIA 95 75 95 74 / 40 30 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ027-036>039-047>051-058>062-071>076-081>086-094>098-105>113.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...RW
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