952
FXUS62 KFFC 221720
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 PM EDT THU APR 22 2021
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1035 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING, SO NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRED AT 9AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY ALTHOUGH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED THE
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SOME
PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE CONTINUED THE FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS. FOR FRIDAY...SOME
MODERATION OF HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AND CRITICAL VALUES SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME VALUES NEAR FREEZING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST. WILL LET NEXT FORECAST SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS.
41
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE WITH A FAST-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS TX AND THE ARKLAMISS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WARM, MOIST GULF AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS OVER OR NEAR THE TN VALLEY. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STARTING IN THE
06Z-12Z SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, AND CONTINUED THOSE 70% TO 90% POPS
AREA-WIDE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE ARE TWO SEVERE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS THAT WILL BE CHECKED OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT STILL MAKE IT A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
1) THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION/PROGRESSION OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA. 2) ALSO A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR TO WHETHER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REALIZED ACROSS THE CWA
IS WHETHER THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA BEFORE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE INGREDIENTS BEING CO-LOCATED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA,
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LLJ OUTRUNNING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED PROFILES WITH PROGGED
PWATS REACHING THE 90% MOVING AVERAGE TO EVEN MAXIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THE DAY. THERE IS LOTS OF SPREAD IN TERMS OF WHERE THE
MODELS HAVE THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM, HOWEVER. AS IT STANDS NOW,
6-HOUR QPF THROUGH THE EVENT SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS AND NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. THAT SAID,
ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER AND/OR LONGER-LASTING RAINFALL -- ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND METRO ATLANTA, WHERE FFG IS
LOWER -- COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK RISES OF
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY ARE ON TRACK TO BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S)
COURTESY OF A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS.
MARTIN
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE 4KT OR LESS. SOME FLIP FLOPPING AROUND DUE NORTH IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL MIXING BEGINS DURING THE MID MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION AFTER 06Z FRI. OTHERWISE, HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 65 40 69 52 / 0 0 5 70
ATLANTA 64 45 68 54 / 0 0 10 80
BLAIRSVILLE 58 36 62 47 / 0 0 5 80
CARTERSVILLE 64 40 69 50 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 69 44 74 57 / 0 0 10 70
GAINESVILLE 63 39 66 51 / 0 0 5 80
MACON 68 41 73 55 / 0 0 5 60
ROME 65 40 69 52 / 0 0 10 90
PEACHTREE CITY 66 40 70 52 / 0 0 10 80
VIDALIA 68 45 75 59 / 0 0 5 40
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....MARTIN
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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