085
FXUS62 KFFC 151824
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
224 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
RETURNING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 IN SOME AREAS BY
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXPECT A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS THE AREA RETURNS TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING ON THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUBBLE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
AND WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY
STORMS, THEY ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S TODAY
SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS IN A TRANSITIONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE
MID LEVEL UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID WEST/NORTHEAST HEAT
ELONGATING AND SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE SE COAST. AS IT DOES, THE NE
GULF BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE AND THE
ELONGATED EASTERN RIDGE ALLOWING A TUT LOW FEATURE TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER FL AND THE NE GULF. THE FEATURE IS MOST NOTICEABLE IN
THE FCST PWAT FIELDS AND BECOMES MORE PREVALENT IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
FLOW AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TRANSITION INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN WITH TIME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK LIKE
HOTTEST DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST HI VALUES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
100-105. EAST CENTRAL GA MAY REQUIRE A HT ADV ON FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST HI VALUES PEAKING 105-108.
FRIDAY ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED...FOR
NOW AT LEAST. COMBINATION OF HIGHER MAXT AND TD YIELD A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION OPPORTUNITY ACROSS THE AREA. POPS REFLECT THAT WITH 45-70
PCT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE IN THE NE
GULF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE...BUT THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SUITE BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.
REGARDLESS, AS(OR IF) THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS THERE IS A HINT THAT
LOWER PWAT AIR COULD GET ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE THUS CAPPING THE
CONVECTION A BIT GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND..PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BUT NOT ALL SOLUTIONS
ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS HENCE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WX
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
ONE THING TO MENTION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NE GULF UPPER LOW
IS THAT NHC HAS NOW OUTLOOKED THAT AREA WITH A 20% PROB OF TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ECM SUITE IS RUNNING 40-50%
PROB TC DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REGION. REGARDLESS, ANY DEVELOPMENT,
EVEN WEAK, WITHIN THAT REGION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL
FORECAST IN THE SUNDAY - TUESDAY PERIOD IN PARTICULAR....POSSIBLY IN
A POSITIVE WAY IF DRIER AIR CAN BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPROVED, WITH STRONG CU FIELD KEEPING SCT
TO BKN LOW VFR AT TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES 18-23Z. WINDS OVERALL
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SSW-W, BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT GENERALLY 5KT OR
LESS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN WNW-WSW AT
4-7KT AFTER 14Z TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING VFR SKIES. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 AGAIN FOR
KATL FOR 18-22Z THURSDAY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 88 71 91 73 / 20 10 0 0
ATLANTA 87 72 89 74 / 50 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 83 66 85 68 / 40 10 50 10
CARTERSVILLE 87 71 89 72 / 50 10 30 0
COLUMBUS 90 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 86 72 90 74 / 30 10 20 0
MACON 88 71 90 73 / 30 10 10 10
ROME 87 71 88 72 / 40 10 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 87 70 88 72 / 40 10 20 10
VIDALIA 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 20 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...31
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