862
FXUS62 KFFC 252330
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE AT SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT CONCERNS REBOUND IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK IS DEFINED BY THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL GA WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTAL FEATURE BRINGING UP
THE REAR. THIS REAR FEATURE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTH GA AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTH AL.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEGUN TO BURN OFF WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
GREATER DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME, ACARS VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOWS CAPE VALUES INCREASING ONLY 200 J/KG BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
(BOTH MU AND SFC) OVER THE ATL METRO. GREATER CLEARING OVER THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GA (NOT COVERED BY THE CURRENT
SHOWERS ON RADAR) MAY SEE GREATER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS IS WEAK RIGHT NOW AND WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPOTTY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS THE REAR
FEATURE CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FRONT ALONGSIDE AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTION AND DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL LIKELY BE DRIER ON
SUNDAY, WITH POPS LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN BORDER OF CLOUD
COVER/RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACT AS A NATURAL BREAK-POINT FOR
INSTABILITY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING INTO ANY MCS
FEATURE IN THE DAY 3-7 OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONGTERM FROM YESTERDAY'S
DISCUSSION. OVERALL PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE AREA EAST OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE
NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL GIVE US RELIEF FROM THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MONDAY MORNING (~12Z) CATCHES JUST
THE TAIL END OF THE CAMS AND HREF WHICH GIVES MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VORT MAX TO PUSH AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA. THIS IS SHOWING UP AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN GEORGIA. TIMING WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE FOR THIS ROUND. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWCASES ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINDOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT YOU CAN SEE THE
EMPHASIS FOR ON THE EURO CURRENTLY. THE DRIER AIR MAY BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR BUT STILL COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER NORTH GEORGIA IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER.
AS YOU PUSH INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST
PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND DEEPENING. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE CONDUCIVE OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE MODELS DO SEEM A BIT
AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME SO WILL SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND PUSHING INTO OUR AREA TEMPERATURES
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES AT WIDESPREAD 103-107 ACROSS THE
AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TSRA AND SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ATL METRO AND ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER
KMCN AND KCSG. ASSOCIATED VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 FOLLOWED BY A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA THROUGH 26/02Z AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
WINESETT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 90 72 93 / 20 30 10 10
ATLANTA 73 90 74 93 / 40 30 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 67 84 66 87 / 50 20 10 20
CARTERSVILLE 72 90 72 93 / 50 20 10 20
COLUMBUS 76 92 75 96 / 30 50 10 10
GAINESVILLE 72 90 71 93 / 20 20 0 10
MACON 74 91 74 94 / 20 50 20 10
ROME 72 90 72 93 / 60 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 72 90 73 93 / 40 40 10 10
VIDALIA 75 94 74 95 / 20 60 30 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...WINESETT
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