986
FXUS62 KFFC 222347
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTH GA, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
- RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HAPPY FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL EVERYONE! GUESS WHAT - IT'S
STILL CLOSE TO 90 OUTSIDE. I GUESS IF WE WANT TO GET TECHNICAL, THE
EQUINOX DOESN'T OFFICIAL ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 8 PM EDT, WHICH MEANS WE
CAN ALL PRETEND THAT TODAY'S HEAT AND STORMS WAS STILL A PART OF
SUMMER. THE TIMING OF THE END OF OUR HEAT THEN IS ALMOST UNCANNY
WITH BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE HEAVY MORNING RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA HAVE WORKED
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PRETTY GOOD. THE SUN IS OUT AND RECOVERY IS
HAPPENING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY SOARING UPWARDS. IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA, THE MOIST AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAVE STORMS
ALREADY ONGOING WITH PRETTY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN HAD TO
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTS TO THE NBM TO ADD POPS TO THESE AREAS WHERE
MODELS CAN STRUGGLE WITH THE SMALLER UPDRAFTS AND OVER MIXING OF
MOISTURE. BACK TO NORTH GEORGIA, A WEAK FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN INTO AL AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE WHAT GETS SOME ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON STORMS GOING DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT.
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING IN, SOME COOLING AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
WILL MEAN STORMS HAVE PLENTY TO WORK WITH IF THEY CAN BREAK THROUGH
THE WEAK CAP (NOTED WHEN TAKING A MIXED LAYER APPROACH, RATHER THAN
JUST THE SURFACE BASED APPROACH FOR PARCELS). CONCERNS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST OF STORMS. MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIR DAMMING FINALLY ARRIVING TONIGHT,
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL FEEL OF FALL TO PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
PARKED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
WEDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CRASH DOWN TO THE SOUTH. NE WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY GETTING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN
NC PIEDMONT AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME PARTS OF THE VA PIEDMONT HAVE
BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG
CAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF ITS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH INTO NE GA SOMETIME JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THE
WEDGE MAKES IT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE INSIDE THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY
SEE CLOUD COVER, SOME DRIZZLE CHANCES, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS. THOSE OUTSIDE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH SOME TSTORM CHANCES. MODELS TEND TO UNDER-DO THE
ACTUAL WESTWARD EXTENT, SO I WOULD WAGER THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF METRO
ATLANTA WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THE WEDGE ONLY GROWS STRONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY, OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA AND BRINGING LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WE WILL GET OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL TO KICK OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
(THURSDAY) ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LINE WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1035+MB) IN
PLACE OVER THE FAR NE US AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY WAY OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW/MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S (60S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S/60S
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE MID- TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA'S
PLACEMENT, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST SHOULD KEEP
DRIER AIR IN THE AREA LENDING TO CONTINUED COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
DESPITE THE SLIGHT 'WARM UP.'
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD, BEFORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT INTO WED AM. THESE WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR, IF THEY DO AT ALL, DURING THE DAY ON
WED. SOME SHRA OR DZ ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE LOW CIGS. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING TURN OUT OF ENE TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 7-12KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN CIG TIMING/HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.
CULVER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 67 77 60 72 / 50 30 50 10
ATLANTA 71 82 64 75 / 30 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 62 74 56 70 / 30 70 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 68 84 63 78 / 30 50 30 10
COLUMBUS 71 89 68 81 / 10 20 20 0
GAINESVILLE 68 76 61 72 / 40 30 40 10
MACON 69 87 66 78 / 30 30 10 0
ROME 66 85 62 79 / 40 60 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 68 84 63 77 / 20 40 20 0
VIDALIA 71 88 68 79 / 10 20 10 20
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LUSK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...CULVER
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