047
FXUS62 KFFC 291027
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
LAST GREAT FEELING DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF BRIDGING THE
APPALACHIANS AND WEDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO HINT AT THE WEDGE NOSING IN. IT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, A 1 SIGMA
590DM 500MB RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,
WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS BOTH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. BOTH MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK UP ABOVE CLIMO STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LIKE YESTERDAY, DEWPOINT GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE AND NOT
ACCOUNTING FOR AFTERNOON MIXING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. HAVE MIXED IN
NBM 90TH PCNTLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS RESULTING IN 20-35% RH VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF CHANGING WEATHER AS WE SWING BACK
FROM OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL BACK TO A MORE SUMMER ENVIRONMENT
BEFORE ONCE AGAIN MOVING BACK INTO FALL WEATHER. DESPITE SOME
COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL MOVING PARTS, ENSEMBLES AND THE
AI GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL ON HOW THING SHOULD
PLAY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ESTABLISHED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL HAVE MERGED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE NET EFFECT OVER US FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO REALLY "PUMP" THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT
BEFORE GLIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTY AND GETTING ABSORBED TO THE NORTH OF US WITH A
STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL BE MAKING A
RETURN THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND MAYBE INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH MORE ON
THAT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS IT IS PUMPED FROM THE GULF
AND TROPICS INTO THE AREA BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHERE THE CWA WILL BE
NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE WHOLE COLUMN. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE, SIMILAR TO A CLASSIC SUMMER DAY.
GOING INTO SATURDAY, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IN
THE EAST PACIFIC AS A HURRICANE STALLING A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CAL PENINSULA. THIS IS PUMPING UP A MORE WESTERN BASED RIDGE
AND SENDING A POTENT WAVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL BE
IMPORTANT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, AS THIS WILL POSITION
THE HIGH IN A WAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME CAD TO SLIDE DOWN TO THE SOUTH,
BUT THE HIGH MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH AND SIT LONG ENOUGH FOR MUCH
EFFECT HERE. EITHER WAY, THE COLUMN LOOKS TO BE NEARLY SATURATED
SETTING US UP FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND BRINGS STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
BEST ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA, THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOMETHING
INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2" OF
RAIN IN 24 HOURS ARE HOVERING AROUND 30-40% IN NORTH GEORGIA,
SHOWING THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
EVEN THIS FAR OUT. FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
LUSK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RELAXATION THIS EVENING. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW GUSTS MIXED
IN BY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 85 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 84 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 80 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 86 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 83 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 88 61 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 86 56 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 85 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 90 67 91 67 / 0 0 10 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....LUSK
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page