586
FXUS62 KFFC 110007
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RETREATING RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S OVER OUR AREA. WITH THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHICH WILL PUSH THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX BACK UP
TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH AND EASTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. IT WILL ALSO ACT TO ERODE ANY RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR AND
AID IN AN EXPANDING CU FIELD AREAWIDE TODAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE
ONLY AN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MOSTLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TODAY WITH MORE SPARSE DEVELOPMENTS TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL
TAKE MORE TIME TO ERODE.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEING TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8-2.2 INCHES OVER THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT CAPE, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH A HIGHLIGHTED MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
THAT AREA THROUGH END OF THE SHORT TERM. THAT BEING SAID, OUTSIDE OF
A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY LOW AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. A BERMUDA HIGH
WILL LINGER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM PERIOD PICKS UP ON SAT MORNING,
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.75-2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARDS
THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES, A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TENNESSEE AND APPROACHING THE NORTH GEORGIA BORDER. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUD/PRECIP
COVERAGE. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FURTHER SOUTH WILL PROMOTE A FURTHER INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 80-90% ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA (CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY)
AND 50-80% OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS, STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, MOST LIKELY IN AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. CONSIDERING THIS AND
A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL NEAR
THE I-85 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
VICINITY. WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-85 AND IN
THE UPPER 90S IN AREAS TO THE NORTH IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINING FOR HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING
100 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF A SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH OF
THOSE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR TO START TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING, TENDING TO THE WEST SIDE WHEN PICKING UP ABOVE 5 KTS. CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY FADING. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME IFR CLOUDS COULD IMPACT CSG WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AND NEAR DUE SOUTH AT 3-7 KTS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND APPROX 18Z ON
FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.
LUSK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 71 94 71 90 / 0 30 40 80
ATLANTA 74 93 73 89 / 10 40 50 90
BLAIRSVILLE 65 88 66 82 / 0 20 50 90
CARTERSVILLE 71 93 71 88 / 0 30 50 90
COLUMBUS 74 93 74 92 / 10 50 30 70
GAINESVILLE 72 92 72 86 / 0 30 40 90
MACON 73 92 72 92 / 10 50 30 60
ROME 70 94 71 88 / 0 20 50 90
PEACHTREE CITY 71 92 71 90 / 10 50 50 80
VIDALIA 74 92 74 93 / 20 50 30 50
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...82
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...LUSK
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