682
FXUS62 KFFC 270038
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
838 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF GEORGIA, PARTICULARLY
NORTH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTA METRO INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA,
TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HEAT CONCERNS REBOUND THIS WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 100 ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
105 ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT, WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
GA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL GA HAVE BEGUN THEIR
DOWNWARD TREND AND CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
ALSO PRESENT IN THE SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD MOTION
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW DESCENDING FROM MIDDLE TN AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PRIME US FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS ANY UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS DUMPED INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL AL.
CAMS HAVE SLOWLY CAUGHT ONTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CLEARING CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WHICH WILL ACT AS A
GUIDE FOR ANY MCS WHICH MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANY SYSTEM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED COLD-POOL WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY COMES
FROM THE TIMING, WHEN WILL THE SYSTEM GET TO US, AND THE TRACK, WILL
THE SYSTEM AIM FOR AL OR MOVE MORE INTO GA. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO
CONVERGE ON A TRACK GENERALLY ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER IF NOT TOWARDS
THE ATL METRO. CURRENT TIMING FROM MODELS (SHOULD THE SYSTEM HOLD
TOGETHER) BRINGS THE MCS INTO NORTHWEST GA AS EARLY AS 08Z MONDAY
(4AM) AND COULD REACH THE METRO WITHIN 2-4 HOURS FROM ARRIVAL AT THE
BORDER. SOME INDICATORS TO WATCH FOR GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE ANY RIDGES IN THE NEAR SURFACE THETAE AND CORRIDORS OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND DCAPE.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEXT 24HRS. THE TEMP FORECAST WILL
ALSO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE FURTHER WEST OR
ARRIVE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY BE HOT.
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER FURTHER NW FLOW AND
MCS DEVELOPMENT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS. AT THIS TIME, GRIDS SUGGEST HEAT INDICES WELL WITHIN THE 105-
110 FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES ON
SEVERE OUTLOOKS ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WHICH
COULD BE ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
OVERALL PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE AREA EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE BACKING FROM THE FRONT IN THE
AREA THAT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WITHIN THE
RRFS AND NAM WINDOW WHICH ARE SHOWING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL TRACK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AND UNFORTUNATELY IS DEPENDENT ON HOW ANY ACTIVITY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING EVOLVE.
INTO MID-WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND BREAK
DOWN A TAD PUSHING OUR AREA INTO A MORE DRY PATTERN INTO FRIDAY BUT
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WEEKEND
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-108 RANGE. WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY ON TUESDAY BUT
WAITING TO SEE HOW LINGERING CONVECTION/MCSS AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY LIKE MONDAY. THESE ELEVATED TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ANY STORM
POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDS CONT THRU NIGHT. INCR CLOUDS AFT 08Z, ASSOC W/ APPROACHING
MCS. THE MCS IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURG PROGRESSION ACROSS GEORGIA,
THOUGH LOW CONF ON EXACTLY WHERE. TIMING FOR START OF TS COULD BE AS
EARLY AS ABOUT 09-10Z FOR THE ATLANTA METRO, OR AS LATE AS ABOUT
13Z. DURATION OF AROUND 3-5 HOURS FROM START, WITH LINGERING SHRA
PSBL AFT. TS LIKELY TO STAY W OF AHN AND W/N OF MCN, THOUGH AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS STAY W SIDE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS THRU 08Z, THEN HIGH FOR WIND AND MEDIUM FOR
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
CRS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 94 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
ATLANTA 74 93 76 96 / 10 30 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 66 87 68 88 / 20 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 72 93 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 75 96 77 98 / 0 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 72 93 74 95 / 10 10 10 10
MACON 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 10
ROME 72 92 74 95 / 40 40 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 73 93 74 96 / 10 30 10 10
VIDALIA 75 98 76 99 / 20 10 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...CRS
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