629
FXUS62 KFFC 172337
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND THE ATL
METRO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5" OR MORE ARE EXPECTED.
- SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- DRIER ON SATURDAY BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY WET AS THE
REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENTLY THIS
SYSTEM IS CENTERED ALONG THE TX GULF COAST JUST SW OF HOUSTON.
ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TO NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER NEAR
NATCHEZ BY 12Z THU. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO W GA
AROUND 12Z-14Z THU. BASICALLY ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW
OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IS FLOODING AS WE ARE EXPECTING A 2 DAY TOTAL
OF 2" TO 5" OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL GA. NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IS CURRENTLY
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
WEST AND CENTRAL GA UNDER A MODERATE RISK INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE ATL/CSG/MCN AREAS. WE COULD ALSO SEE COME GUSTY WINDS ARE A
FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK AT 850MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM THU/THU NIGHT. WITH MOIST SOILS AND GUSTY WINDS TREES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE VERY LIKELY.
THE HI- RES MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A HANDLE
ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW CENTER WITH MOST OF THEM SHOWING IT
MOVING ACROSS MS/AL THU AND INTO W GA RIGHT AROUND 00Z FRI. THE
LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OVER NIGHT TO ALMOST THE SC
COAST BY DAYBREAK FRI. WE WILL STILL BE IN MOIST SWRLY FLOW FRI
BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF ARTHUR SO EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TS ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER THIS WEEKEND ONCE MORE HUMID AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO RETURN TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF ATL AND ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AROUND 0030Z IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION
IN THE PROB30 GROUP AS THERE STILL IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AROUND 6Z TO 10Z. STORMS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 14Z WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BETTER CHANCES MOVE IN AFTER 18Z
WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING TAF FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND WINDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
HANSEN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 72 85 69 86 / 20 90 80 50
ATLANTA 73 82 70 84 / 20 100 80 70
BLAIRSVILLE 67 79 65 81 / 30 80 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 73 83 70 85 / 20 90 80 70
COLUMBUS 73 82 71 86 / 20 100 80 90
GAINESVILLE 72 83 69 85 / 20 90 80 50
MACON 72 84 70 85 / 10 90 90 80
ROME 74 82 70 85 / 20 90 70 70
PEACHTREE CITY 72 81 70 84 / 20 100 80 80
VIDALIA 73 89 72 86 / 10 80 80 80
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
GAZ020>022-030>035-037-041>050-052>061-066>074-078>084-089>096-
102>107.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....CONDRY
AVIATION...HANSEN
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