750
FXUS62 KFFC 022343
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
GA, WILL BE FELT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A BUILDING CAD WEDGE.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY, FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME QUASI-ZONAL, WITH A STRONG (1039+ MB) SURFACE
HIGH MOVING INTO PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES SO, THE U-
SHAPED ISOBARS CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WEDGE HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN DRY ONSET, WITH PEAK COVERAGE
LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUAL
SCATTERING BEGINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEAKLY COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TYPICAL WEDGE
REGIME AREAS (GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-75/I-20
INTERCHANGE), WITH IMPACTS STRONGEST ON TUESDAY DESPITE THE LACK
OF MEANINGFUL REINFORCING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE 70S FOR ALL BUT THE SLIVER OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
THICKEST CLOUD COVER AND MOST PROMINENT EASTERLY FLOW -- THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTA METRO, EAST TO ATHENS, AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA -- WHICH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH WEDGE
REGIMES, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF TRUE, MOIST COOL SEASON SETUPS, AND
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONGST THE NBM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
HAVE OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME COOLER GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF PUNCTUATED WARMING UNDER CLOUDY (ALBEIT DRY)
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY -- HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 WITHIN THE WEDGE AIRMASS, RISING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
OUTSIDE OF IT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN:
THE MAIN STORY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
TEMPERATURES, AS DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO GEORGIA. THIS FLOW WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EAST COAST / WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
OF A TRANSITION DAY, AS THE SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOLER AIR GETS
ERODED BY THE ADVECTION OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WITHIN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH LOW 80S IN CENTRAL GA. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON
THURSDAY, STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN EVEN WARMER
AIRMASS UP FROM THE GULF, WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE VERY WARM TEMPS (15-20F ABOVE NORMAL) WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME DAILY
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SPRING ON THURSDAY, AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ONE
INGREDIENT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WE WILL NOT BE LACKING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOURCE OF LIFT IS AN INGREDIENT THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY, AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTING UP CLOSER TO GEORGIA. WITH THIS SETUP, THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP ANY SHORTWAVES OR FRONTS EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US OFF
TO OUR NORTH. STILL, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND MILD INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR OVER THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STARTS TO
SHOW A BIT MORE SPREAD, WITH SOME KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE, AND
OTHERS HAVING THE RIDGE SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN. AT THIS TIME, A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LATTER, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE OMEGA-BLOCK STYLE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THE
RIDGE HELD IN PLACE LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, WHICH WOULD
KEEP ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PASSING
UPPER CLOUDS BETWEEN 15-25 KFT. AS THE WEDGE AIRMASS BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST, MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT AHN AT
05Z, ATL/PDK AT 06Z, AND FTY/RYY BY 07Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13-17Z. AFTER 17Z, CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO MVFR AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-12 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING PROGRESSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KING
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 50 62 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
ATLANTA 50 64 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 45 59 45 74 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 51 66 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 73 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 47 60 49 76 / 10 0 0 0
MACON 53 71 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 52 69 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 51 67 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 54 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....CULVER
AVIATION...KING
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