447
FXUS62 KFFC 021731
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM, THURSDAY, FOR
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
- THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY FOR
MOST OF NORTH GA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105
DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING NEAR OR
ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
- SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. HOT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START
THE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA, WHICH IS
ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY NORMALS AND IS FURTHERMORE DOING
LITTLE TO PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING HEAT. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA, LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS MORNING, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND "ONLY" 2-6 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
WILL PREVENT HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S
(EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS), WARRANTING A HEAT
ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA, ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
POLK TO MURRAY COUNTIES. HERE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
110. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN THERE AREAS.
STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ONCE
AGAIN TODAY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES PROGGED BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED
WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 8-9 C/KM, WILL FAVOR A WET MICROBURST THREAT, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING CLUSTERS
DOWNSTREAM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE FOR A LARGE AREA ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.
THOUGH WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE DISORGANIZED PATTERN TAKING HOLD SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND WITH
NO STRONG FORCING, A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN REEMERGES. HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S FRIDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY (EXCEPT
IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE UPPER 80S WILL BE MORE
COMMON). TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES ALSO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD EVEN WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
AREA BRINGING BACK SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO THE NORTHERN OR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, BUT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD OUTSIDE PRECIP. ISO TO SCT SHRA AND
TSRA PSBL EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E AT 3 TO
7KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TOMORROW
AND MAY BE VRB BEFORE 18Z. WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE VRB
AND GUSTY WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS PSBL WITHIN TSRA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ATHENS 98 75 98 75 / 20 20 0 0
ATLANTA 97 78 97 77 / 20 20 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 91 71 91 70 / 40 10 20 0
CARTERSVILLE 98 76 98 75 / 30 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 96 75 97 76 / 10 10 20 0
GAINESVILLE 98 75 98 75 / 30 20 10 0
MACON 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 0
ROME 98 75 98 75 / 40 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 96 75 95 75 / 20 20 20 0
VIDALIA 97 72 98 74 / 10 10 0 0
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ001>005-
011-012-019-020-030.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ001>005-011-012-019-020-030.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ006-007-013-014-
021>025-027-031>039-041>062.
SHORT TERM...KING
LONG TERM....HELLER
AVIATION...SM
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